tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post6026400506087321807..comments2024-01-23T08:03:30.875-05:00Comments on The Southpaw: Shiny Shiny Crystal BallThe Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-12019876356122943462012-02-29T09:08:24.837-05:002012-02-29T09:08:24.837-05:00Thoughts:
Of course, if the Jays have 50 somethin...Thoughts:<br /><br />Of course, if the Jays have 50 something wins in July, I fully expect AA to pull THE blockbuster trade; we have a ton of prospects to entice with.<br /><br />Just thinking from memory, but I believe Frasors numbers are elite level if you take out his two worst outings as a Jay. Basically had two outings where he imploded, almost perfect other than that. Seems to me thats been a career trend for him.<br /><br />Think one area where this team will also improve is in depth, especially as the year progresses. My fear though is that Valbuena becomes the most important 26th man. An injury at second or (until Gose is ready) third seriously wounds this team. <br /><br />How long until Bautista is forced out of the outfield?<br /><br />If you have a viable starter option to begin the year, would you do a 2011 Brandon Morrow and have Dustin McGowan develop a sudden nasty hang-nail that puts him on the 15 day to start the season. Short stint down in extended, then can pitch into September.BuffaloSojournnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-6393473309306341442012-02-26T21:48:48.245-05:002012-02-26T21:48:48.245-05:00^^^
Well, part of the process for me is that you c...^^^<br />Well, part of the process for me is that you come up with a reasonable INDIVIDUAL projection for the players, but then you temper that with the firm knowledge that SOME of them will fall short (and MAYBE some will exceed) and that falling short will produce a team that in the aggregate is not as good as the total of the individual projections might imply - the thing is you can't know WHICH will fall short.<br /><br />So one should never read the total of the individual projections as an indicator of the actual team performance.<br /><br />Essentially, the teams that make the playoffs will be the ones where the great majority do, and the ones who fall short are the teams where quite a few fall short.<br /><br />------------------<br />"I would expect more volatility than +/- 3 games if the expected wins of the team at this point is 89 wins. Wouldn't that put them on the bubble for being a buyer or seller?"<br /><br />I think that's correct. Looking over the schedule, I can see them with 50-something wins in mid-July but with the sure knowledge that the last two months of the season will be very tough.<br /><br />I think they lean more towards buying that selling at that point, but it will be a tough call for them I'm sure.The Southpawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-79226480560495540432012-02-26T20:49:51.236-05:002012-02-26T20:49:51.236-05:00I think if you actually were to realize the player...I think if you actually were to realize the player projections (even taking into account a normal number of injuries), the Jays would win close to a hundred games. So, I'm going to have to describe the projections as charmingly overoptimistic.gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14807352308804721979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-9057824152872409392012-02-26T20:31:50.867-05:002012-02-26T20:31:50.867-05:00I would expect more volatility than +/- 3 games if...I would expect more volatility than +/- 3 games if the expected wins of the team at this point is 89 wins. Wouldn't that put them on the bubble for being a buyer or seller?Dylannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-68662255973215559632012-02-26T20:25:16.234-05:002012-02-26T20:25:16.234-05:00Well done. I like your optimism, however disagree ...Well done. I like your optimism, however disagree with Lind and EE. I hope that Snider has the year you are projecting and think that both Rasmus, JPA and Johnson have more in the tank. <br />I really appreciate your approach on Lawrie and hope that he can perform at this level.<br />On the pitching side, I don't think that Romero wi regress much. Call it an intangible factor. My only other observation is that I think that Drabek has been written off too quickly. His stuff is just too good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-6377690023821254612012-02-26T20:11:53.805-05:002012-02-26T20:11:53.805-05:00Enjoy reading your blog. I too am optimistic. Ho...Enjoy reading your blog. I too am optimistic. However, you know at least one or two of those guys will fall on their face this year. This happens to even the best of teams. Even so, that have a chance though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-55069680590797932802012-02-26T16:05:38.447-05:002012-02-26T16:05:38.447-05:00I for one greatly appreciate your measured optimis...I for one greatly appreciate your measured optimism (esp. today's 'atypical' variety) over cynical pessimism, allowing and encouraging the fan in each of us room to dream our little dreams while still attempting an honest evaluation of our team. It must be a sad and sorry existence for those who banish all thought of optimism precisely at the time of year it is most welcome and needed. Spring training is a magical time, and I applaud anyone who can both 'assume good things' and 'hope for reasonably possible outcomes.' Cheers.Small Potatoesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-84180277372530676622012-02-26T16:01:37.834-05:002012-02-26T16:01:37.834-05:00I tend not to get too specific about runs because ...I tend not to get too specific about runs because it's so insane to try to predict how much playing time will go to the bench players. You can't just add up what you project for the starters <br /><br />(and, by the way, it's always realistic to understand that all these starters are full-season projection and there will surely be a few DL stints along the way)<br /><br />but in general terms, I would expect them to be among the top 3-4 teams in the league in runs scored if these projections are anywhere close to correct.The Southpawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-56977180408904525452012-02-26T14:37:19.227-05:002012-02-26T14:37:19.227-05:00Just started reading your blog and am enjoying it ...Just started reading your blog and am enjoying it and I hope you can keep it going. A real attempt at an honest prediction from your point of you and that's cool. I can only hope your predictions come true but probably would have been a little more conservative with Rasmus and left field. Rasmus stills needs time to adjust to the AL East, left field I am not convinced that things will improve until some of the rookies come up. However, IF the Jays could win 8 more games as you suggest, I can only hope it would be against the AL East. That in itself would make it a 4 team race. BTW, did you project - based on your figures - how many runs they would score this year compared to last year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-18200135121797391262012-02-26T07:26:13.598-05:002012-02-26T07:26:13.598-05:00Nice post.
A couple of observations --
1. Holy C...Nice post.<br /><br />A couple of observations --<br /><br />1. Holy Crap! There's a lot of guys who could take a considerable leap forward or a huge step backward this season... Lind, Johnson, Lawrie, Arencibia, Snider/Thames, Rasmus... Such a huge part of the lineup. It could be very volatile at times.<br /><br />2. Holy Crap! (Part deux) If these numbers are what we can expect, then this could very well be a great year for the organization. Three OPS's under .800 (and only by 24 or fewer), means there could be a bunch more runs, which could allow the starters to relax and pitch a little smarter.<br /><br />GO JAYS GO!!! I remember 1985 and it's a good comparison!!ScottDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-77242653017407877912012-02-26T07:23:16.740-05:002012-02-26T07:23:16.740-05:00I always enjoy reading through your predictions an...I always enjoy reading through your predictions and the methodolgy you have used to get there. I have not looked back to see how your predictions panned out last year, but I think you are right on! Great Post!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com