tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50157560502472838142024-03-05T07:19:05.149-05:00The SouthpawThe Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.comBlogger822125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-76010582744713355502015-12-22T20:45:00.002-05:002015-12-22T20:45:36.392-05:00All Good ThingsThose who've remained loyal readers at The Southpaw already know that I've been floundering a bit recently while I processed the realization that there are just too many great Blue Jays focused sites out there now for this one, as a standalone entity, to have a purpose. They are diverse, high quality, and enjoy my respect as well as, sometimes, my envy. The Southpaw is never going to be a "destination site" in that crowd, even though I'm willing to (gratefully) acknowledge there's more than a few that enjoy my contributions.<br /><br />I have decided, therefore, to go in a different direction. <br /><br />I owe my first debt to Twitchy and Johnny Was, who conceived this site and partnered with me for the early years. Both of whom seem to have disappeared into the ether. I got early encouragement from the ever prolific Andrew Stoeten and the other "Drunks" as well as TaoofStieb and Ian at BlueJay Hunter, the influence of all you can no doubt notice in my posting style. For this I'm very grateful. <br /><br />Likewise, while my audience is not huge there's a regular contingent of visitors to this site despite my increasingly infrequent posting. They speak words of encouragement and praise whenever I allow myself to doubt my usefulness to the Blue Jays blogosphere. Never think I do not notice or appreciate the kindness. <br /><br />All these good things I take with me as I close up shop (in terms of active posting - the site will continue to exist) at The Southpaw. What's next you ask?<br />
<br />
I have accepted an exciting invitation to join the roster of contributors at Blue Jays Plus. <br /><br />As you surely already know, BJP already features a roster of nine impressive writers, so it is no small matter to be invited into their ranks. If you're a fan of the site (and if not, what the heck is WRONG with you?) you've surly realized they bring the goods when it comes to in-depth analysis from all the angles. You also no doubt noticed that that is no my strongest suit. What I hope to bring to the site is commentary and, with any luck, some insight. Sometimes just as simple as a contrary opinion. You'll have to be the judge of how well I accomplish that goal. <br /><br />So with these things said, this will be my last post her for the foreseeable future, but I'm anticipating great things to come and I hope you come along for the ride.<br />
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Thanks for everything.<br />
<br />~Tammy Beth Rainey, aka, The Southpaw The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-38891707971408331012015-10-29T16:16:00.002-04:002015-10-29T16:16:26.384-04:00Seasons ChangeMy first responsibility before I say anything else is to explain my absence during the most comment worthy fall in 22 years. The truth is, everything I felt inspired to write, someone else - some many others actually - were already posting much the same thing, or something better. I'm not a stat head, i don't live in the Toronto area or in close proximity to anything they are doing. There's almost nothing I do better than others, ranging from long timers like Ian Hunter and Andrew Stoeten to others that are newer to me such as Gideon Turk. I just don't bring anything to the plate except an echo.<br />
<br />
So I rode the wild ride and enjoyed it immensely but all the things that might have been said were either already said everywhere or so very obvious that there was no point in writing them up. When the playoffs hit, every time I had the urge to write there was always something that was going to happen tomorrow which might well render what I had in mind moot. So this will be sort of a long post that covers a lot of lingering thoughts and then gets to the real point - the heartbreaking (to me) departure of Alex Anthopoulos.<br />
<br />
As far as the playoffs go, I'm disappointed but at peace with ow it turned out. As AA pointed out, the odds that this lineup would not get the key hit even once in 12 opportunities were very slim, but that's baseball and stuff happens. I have a lot harder time dealing with the 7th inning of game 2 as rallies like that, in that situation, are just not supposed to ever happen. I have no specific complaints about anyone associated with the team this season (well, except Drew Hutchinson).<br />
<br />
I almost wrote a piece last week looking ahead at the upcoming decisions, particularly regarding the pitching staff. About how I'd be willing to give Price a 200 mil deal if needed to keep him, how I'd put a QO on Estrada, about how I'd keep in mind the potential to trade Dickey/Thole if both Price and Estrada came back on those terms (to lessen the financial hit from Estrada), about how I'd try to get Lowe to resign, put Osuna in the rotation and put Sanchez and Hutch in competition for the 5th spot with the realization that Sanchez can go to the 'pen...unless I decided to just make Sanchez the closer and be done with it.<br />
I'd do with Sanders what they did last year with Smoak, assuming he came back I'd deal Revere (presumably for a good reliever) and open the door for Pompey who can do everything Ben Revere can do and more. Maybe see if Navarro can be brought back but otherwise, I'm fine with the line-up. It might be gravy to put a big bopping left handed first baseman but with the existing lineup, Smoak-abello is fine. Let's not forget how much production they combined for.<br />
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Now, who the hell knows? None of us have any CLUE what Mark Shapiro will have in mind.<br />
<br />
I had intended to write something by now about my subjective view of the prospect rankings, but it just seems awkwardly timed at the moment.<br />
<br />
So, to the news of the day. In the same theme I opened with, Richard Griffin - whom I seldom cite or quote or even reference - pretty much nailed my feelings in <a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/blue_jays_baseball_blog/2015/10/-to-say-alex-anthopoulos-rejected-an-extension-from-blue-jays-is-ridiculous-griffin.html">this column</a>. I'm NOT of the opinion that Shapiro is going to be bad for the team or screw things up, we really don't have any evidence of that. I DO think the team is set to be a contender with reasonable management for several years to come.<br />
<br />
That said, Alex deserved the job, he deserved to work in the role he was good at with virtual autonomy and ownership bungled things and, implicitly if not overtly, drove him out by misplaying how they replaced Beaston. With every respect to Shapiro, they could have easily went out and perused someone who was an excellent business mind who could revolutionize the fan experience and directed the stadium renovations and so forth while Alex handled the baseball. He earned that. He deserved that. And no matter what the team does next year, it will offend my sense of justice that Alex won't be a part of it. If they win the World Series, or enjoy whatever level of success, he will still be the one who made it possible and he won't be there to be in integral part of it. I'll never be content with that. I've never been an ownership basher before, but I am now. This is on them.In the wake of a magic season when they had more good will accumulated than they ever will again, they botched it.<br />
<br />
As for implications, as I said who really knows? Whither Gibby? He deserve to return but ill he? Who's the new GM? Will he (wisely) promote Tony LaCava and leave Alex's talented staff in place, or will he bring in a bunch of folks with personal loyalty to him? Don't forget that there's impact on the field as well. What if Joey Bautista decides his loyalty was to Alex and that changes his view of going to the FA market next winter? Just for one example. Remember how Tulo worried about not being able to trust anyone? Rogers kinda just proved where they fell on that scale.<br />
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I wrote when the Shapiro deal was announced that if they were hiring him for the business side then great, if they were castrating Alex on the baseball side then it was a very bad idea. I'll also remind the reader that last winter when the whole "AA is on the hot seat" drama was going on that I was very clear he didn't deserve to be. Even before 2015 the man was a success, the team was very good and the future looked very bright, and firing him before that success had a chance to bear fruit would be insane (look at how long the Royals waited on Dayton Moore to finish the task). It may well have been that Rogers didn't see things that way and had designs all year to clean house - and then the team that Alex built took 3 months to prove them wrong and leave them with all kinds of egg on their face.<br />
<br />
To quote Griff: "Rogers is proving they are bad baseball people."<br /><br />To that I say, A-fucking-men.The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-67731023046072705242015-09-06T20:45:00.000-04:002015-09-06T20:45:57.794-04:00Revised and amended!So, the Blue Jays - clearly creeping my blog for an edge! - took my suggestion on <a href="http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/09/proposed-rotation-for-6.html">Friday</a> to heart and flipped Marco Estrada to today's game and Mark Beuhrle to tomorrow's contest with Boston. In so doing, as has been widely reported now, they align Buehrle and Stroman's schedule and pretty much everyone assumes that if Stroman looks good tomorrow for Buffalo that he'll take that start and Buehrle will get extra rest again. They may skip papa altogether or may just push him back - but the former option makes the rotation for the rest of the year much more straight-forward and it only seems sensible to me that I do a "Part 2" follow up to Friday's post in light of the adjustment. Trust me though, I won't keep this bit running through the rest of the season every time they make an announcement. This one - like the last - is simply about how you make the best use of Stroman as a part of a modified 6 man rotation - not an effort to keep up with every move they make.<br />
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To review, I'll again post the first chart which reflects how the current five fall if Stroman were not coming back and they stayed on turn.<br />
<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td><br /></td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"10 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">10 ' 1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
That is, of course, almost identical to the one which appeared in my post 2 days ago. The one simple switch the team made, then, makes it much easier to sort out how you integrate Stroman into the schedule:<br />
<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,2,"0",1]" data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"> </td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"> </td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"10 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">10 ' 1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
There are alternate versions, primarily flowing off whether or not you try to push Buehrle back from the NY start or skip him altogether, but I think the latter produces a much more consistent result. Notice that after tomorrows game, which is going to be 7 days either way, you have two pitchers who skip a start, and otherwise everyone is on either 4 or 5 days' rest except for 2 games with 6 days, which go to the two older guys. Of course, to do this I dropped Hutchinson for the last two weeks. The alternative to this would be to take a start away from some other starter and in this, he draws the short straw not by luck but by his own doing.<br />
<br />
I'll be watching to see how the Jays line them up after the next off day to see if we're thinking alike.<br />
<br />
<br />
All the Minor league seasons are done after tomorrow, save Lansing's playoff games, and I'll be getting together my version of the season review and look back and the pre-season top 40 at my earliest convenience. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-23397549631505736112015-09-04T02:29:00.000-04:002015-09-04T02:29:50.088-04:00Proposed Rotation for The 6Isn't there something serendipitous about a hot team that represents a city thats lately been refereed to as "The 6" suddenly has six solid options for the five man rotation? The 6 pitchers will need to be handled in such a way as to maximize their Ace and provide extra rest for the older members of the rotation, here's my proposal.<br />
<br />
First, let's look at the schedule as it would fall if the current five-man rotation goes in order (apart from the already announced weekend flip of Price and Buehrle - which may be indicative) along with the number of days rest that starter would have before the given turn.<br />
<br />
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,2,"0",1]" data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td><br /></td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"10 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">10 ' 1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
As you can tell, Beuhrle got a +1 for six days off before this start Sunday and it demonstrates something about how they want to give him some rest. The same might in theory apply to Dickey but knuckleballers are obviously different and we've seen no indication of them backing him off, nor of his performance being anything like an issue. In fact, in his 2.78 post-break ERA, and 3.18 over his last 18 starts certainly says no (Buehrle by that measure is 3.99 since the break and 2.90 in his last 21starts). Estrada? 3.35 as a SP, but 2.44 in his last 14 starts. Even the enigmatic Hutchison is at 3.76 since the break and 4.11 n his last 19 starts which is not awful, and his xFIP has been the best in the rotation (other than Price) all year. Also, for those wondering about maximizing Price, even if you keep him on 4 days rest consistently, you can't (as I've pointed out before but members of the media keep not noticing apparently) get another regular season start from him.<br />
<br />
Now, Stroman will pitch for Buffalo on September 7, Labor Day, so he can't start for the Jays before September 12. Here is, after experimenting some, my best proposition for how to do a modified-not-quite-six-man-rotation.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,2,"0",1]" data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="color: black; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Atlanta"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Atlanta</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boston"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boston</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="color: red; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"> </td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="color: black; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"10 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">10 ' 1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Baltimore"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Baltimore</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Tampa Bay"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Tampa Bay</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Stroman"]" style="color: blue; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Stroman</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First things first, in the original rotation everyone has six turns left except Dickey who has five. In the modified, it breaks down like this:<br />
<br />
Price - 6<br />
Buehrle, Estrada, Stroman - 5<br />
Dickey, Hutch - 4<br />
<br />
So <b>Stroman</b> takes one each from <b>Estrada, Buehrle</b> and <b>Dickey</b> and 2 from <b>Hutch</b>, which is unfortunate given his recent success, but worth it in my opinion. Taking a closer look, <b>Buehrle</b> at New York on the 11th would be nice to avoid, but if he pitches Sunday there's no way around it. If Gibby would push him back to Monday, then you could put <b>Stroman</b> in for him the next turn and just skip him that time through, but in the absence of such an announcement (and given my history on this blog, one will come within 12 hours of my posting this article) I'm going to assume it's not happening. <br />
<br />
Beyond that, <b>Dickey</b> has the +1 day because of <b>Stroman</b> and the off-day on the 9/15 game at Atlanta. Which is actually a small bonus pushing the former NL player into a no-DH game. <b>Hutch</b> goes two days later with 7 days off which is just happenstance, but pitching on the road against a weak team will be an interesting test of his recent success vs. his bizarre splits. The next noteworthy date is 9/20 when <b>Buehrle </b>goes having essentially skipped a start. That should take care of the rest issue and still give him a practical chance to hit 200 IP again. Two days later <b>Dickey</b> again turns up on 6 days rest but that's just where he plugs in. <br /><br />On 9/27 <b>Hutch</b> gets the last home game, having skipped a start and avoided any more road starts ("coincidentally"). The next day <b>Price</b> goes on 6 days rest, which may seem odd but it keeps <b>Buehrle </b>from going 7 days again - you want him to get his normal routine back before the post-season - and <br />
it still keeps <b>Price</b> lined up for the first game of a semi-finals series on his regular rest. Plus he might benefit from a small breather anyway. On the last day of the month, <b>Dickey</b> goes having gotten 7 days for no particular reason, that's just where he falls in accommodating the needs of others. As a knuckleballer he should be better equipped to go on an odd number of days than standard pitchers. After that everyone falls into a 4/5 off day "normal" rotation. Thus over the course of 29 games and 31 days, a SP will get more than 5 days rest 8 times. Once for Price, twice for Hutch and Buehrle, three times for Dickey and not at all for Estrada or Stroman (the freshest arm, after all). Perhaps interesting, if you push Buehrle back to Monday of the upcoming week, then skip that NY start to give it to Stroman, then you can line up the rest of the year such that you only have four occasions when a SP has had more than the customary 4/5 days, and 3 of the 4 would fall to Buehrle.<br />
<br />
In terms of match-ups, I've mentioned getting Dickey into the NL game, within the week following you move Buehrle into the 9/20 game vs. Boston and out of 9/22 against the Yankees who have a good history against him. You end up the year with your theoretical play-off rotation in order with Price and Stroman back to back as you'd need them for games on October 8 & 9.<br />
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All this, of course, assume no setbacks. <br />
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Coming up in the next few days (hopefully!!), I'll do a review of the minor league system including a look back at my top prospect list and how those who are left in the system faired, along with noting any surprises or players I failed to list in the spring, as we get ready for the next showdown with the New York Yankees coming up in one short week. <br />
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. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-31767237345683703822015-08-21T21:46:00.000-04:002015-08-21T21:46:31.265-04:00Dust Having Settled Not entirely, of course, but with the first six of well reported 13 game showdown between the Yankees and Jays now in the books, it's an opportune time to catch our breath and take stock. As you might guess, my intent was to post this entry on Monday but as is so often the case lately, life got in my way o a regular basis. Now we've put two more games behind us but, ya know, oh well.<br />
<br />
That does give me the chance to point out something that I don't think any of the mainstream writers have pointed out. A lot of what was said over the course of last weekend made reference to the Yankees having "3 games in hand" (that is, that they had played three fewer games than the Blue Jays). The presumption, of course, being the Yankees might win all three and so they had a bigger advantage that the 1.5 games they left Toronto with Sunday night. But now, four days later, the Yankees have burned 2 out of those 3 and are still only 1.5 games ahead. Having 1 more or less game played from here on out becomes pretty irrelevant. That's a sort of unseen win for the Jays this week. Meanwhile, while rooting for the pitching-rich Indians to dominate the Yanks this weekend, I do worry that we still have to play that Cleveland bunch before the end of the month.<br />
<br />
Also, am I the only one who notices how well Marcus Stroman's re-hab schedule is aligned to Drew Hutchison's turn in the rotation? I don't think that's a co-incidence. Even with Hutch coming off two good starts, it sure looks like a lack-of-confidence issue on the part of the team. Stroman is going to get three chances through his re-had to prove himself and then he'll line up with the Sept 9 start, that would normally fall to Hutch, at Boston. This also happens to be the next Hutch start that falls on a road game. Hmmm. It would not be too conspiratorial to suppose that Hutch's two home start (Detroit, and Baltimore) serve as a sort of audition for the Boston game. And that game, in turn, an audition for the rest of the season (potentially 4 more starts).<br />
<br />
That assumes, of course, that they don't skip Hutch on 9/3, but if they do that he'll have a start in New York instead of one at home against the Orioles (and it's just as crucial to beat the O's at this point too). One would assume that's not the outcome they'd want. Speaking of skipping turns, Ben Ennis was grumbling a bit on the air today about not getting maximum usage out of David Price because of the off days and not keeping him on 4 days rest. But I think he's missing the boat. In his first start, the Blue Jays pushed him back a day so that not only would he open against the Twins, whom the Blue Jays were chasing for the wild card at the time, but he would start twice versus the Yankees rather than one against NY and one against Oakland. Which is a GOOD thing. But as I noted at the time, once he started that second time vs. NY (also on 5 days) that guaranteed the Jays would only get 12 starts from him, rather than 13. From tat point onward, even if he goes every 5 days instead of every 5 games, it doesn't help. So on that front, there's no motivation to skip Hutch to get more price - rather it's just about match-ups. <br />
<br />
Here's a trivia for you: Josh Donaldson, with 1/4 of the seasons left, is already sporting the 8th highest season WAR in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays. He's still on pace for #1 on that list. A the moment, he's just passed Colby Rasmus (who had 3 times as many PA and if he hits the 8.8 he's on pace for, he'd pass Joe Carter - who had more than 6 times as many PA in the uniform as Donaldson is on pace to have.<br />
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Finally, regrading Alex Anthopoulos' future. Having heard a plethora of conversations on the subject, here's what I think should happen. I'd promote Alex to president of Baseball Operations, and hire a business focused executive to be president of all the non-baseball matters. Which of them is superior to the other wouldn't be all the important to me, but if the business guy is technically Alex's superior, he wouldn't have the last word on the baseball personnel decisions. The latest rumor, of course, is Shapiro from Cleveland. And I respect his baseball acumen and in my scenario, I'd be glad to add another mind to the decision making process but Alex would have the ultimate authority. He's shown himself to be an incredibly prepared and intelligent executive with an uncanny instinct for making the right decisions (not to say perfect but no one is). While I don't think he has the experience to carry out the duties of the president on the business side, I for one don't want anyone between him and ownership anymore. <br />
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The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-24181759927616505182015-08-11T00:34:00.002-04:002015-08-11T00:34:25.227-04:00Update to Previous CommentaryAbout that playoff roster, it seems wise to clarify and expand my comments in light of the shorthand Wilner is tweeting (which is not wrong, just has the potential for misunderstanding due to brevity).<br />
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The major effect of the Aug. 31 deadline is that it's the last day you can bring a player into the organization and that player be eligible to play in the post-season. There is another intended effect, but that effect has a major loophole. The intended effect is that the pool of players from which you may construct your playoff roster consists of the 25 active players, plus anyone on the DL (either sort) or the bereavement, suspended or military leave list.<br />
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As the roster currently stands for the Blue Jays, that's the following:<br />
<br />
Price, Buehrle, Dickey, Estrada, Hutchinson (Stroman)<br />
Osuna, Sanchez, Lowe, Cecil, Hawkins, Hendricks, Loup, Schultz<br />
Martin, Navarro; Encarnacion, Smoak, Colobello; (Travis), Pennington; Tulowitzki, Goins; Donaldson;(Izturus)<br />
Bautista, Pillar, Revere, (Saunders)<br />
<br />
So that's 29 names.<br />
Scratch Izturus who's done, and it looks like maybe Saunders who we never get updates about, and who has precisely 4 weeks left in which to get in a proper rehab assignment. Down to 27. It's safe to say a healthy Stroman would likely bump either Schultz or Loup (or Hutch?) and if you want Travis, and he's ready to play, one would assume that costs you another pitcher from that group. And you still end up with Goins or Pennington as your reserve outfielder. But there's really no other stop where you might squeeze in a Dalton Pompey.<br />
<br />
But then there's that huge loophole I mentioned, and this is why Wilner explains it as he does. The rules state that a player from your 25 who's injured at the time your playoff appearance begins (or anytime thereafter, may be replaced by ANY player in your organization, even if they are not on the 40 man roster, as long as they were in the organization before the August 31 deadline expired at midnight. So if, say, Revere got hurt the Jays could theoretically replace him with Anthony Alford if they were of a mind to. (with respect to Pompey, how col would that be?)<br />
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If Hutch were "injured" then Loup or Schultz, or Tepera, or Delebar, or heck, Conner Greene could take his place.<br />
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All clear now? By the way, one of the guys I mentioned yesterday has been promoted. Conner Fisk is up to Dunedin.That's a pretty impressive reward.The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-70250602106575498902015-08-09T16:30:00.000-04:002015-08-09T16:30:07.382-04:00Prospect Progress Report, 4/5 and stuff (for reals this time!)<br />
So I only just now noticed I put 4/5 on
the July report - which was actually the third of five. I'm going to
have to speak to my copy editor.<br />
<br />
Let's never rest Tulo again, right? This is fun stuff. Is it too unrealistic to hope for sweeping the Yanks in the Bronx? (Apparently not!) <strike>Today</strike> Yesterday was in some ways a practically perfect game. Still, there was a bit of news in the last day or two that even in the face of all this joy I'm going to grumble about. John Gibbons has said that as of now they do not plan to flip Buehrle and Hutch in Oakland. Even though I did not realize it when I first remarked upon the subject, doing so, or not, is an important choice that has implications beyond just minimizing Hutchinson's exposure. It affects the days of rest for other more effective members of the rotation.<br />
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Take a look at this:<br />
Here's the ideal, IMO, way to arrange the rotation that I published in the last post, side by side with the rotation kept in it's current order -<br />
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<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style><br />
--><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Philidelphia"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Philidelphia</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Philidelphia"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Philidelphia</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,31]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">31</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Cleveland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Cleveland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Do you see what I see? A full week between David Price starts? When does THAT start making sense? Same for Estrada, and Buehrle and Dickey get 5 days rest. Then the next time through Buehrle and Dickey get a full week between starts and Price and Estrada five days. And there are 3 off days in September so added rest isn't really a factor. Moreover, in the schedule I'm suggesting Price gets an extra days rest twice, as does Estrada, Dickey and Buehrle get an extra day once. But more importantly, you take the single biggest weakness on your team out of play for two full weeks while maximizing the three plays for whom you collectively paid a very high price to obtain.<br />
<br />
I realize that Gibby knows so much more than I do about the situation and that he's managing real live people and not moving chess pieces on a board - but looking in from the outside, I don't see any logic at all in this. <br />
<br />
<br />
Now, to the farm...<br />
<br />
<u><b>Buffalo</b></u><br />
It's
rather redundant to brag even more about <b>Dalton Pompey</b>, but let's alert
the folks that tuned out on him in May.Since being promoted to Buffalo
on July 17, in 79 at bats, Pompey's slash lines is .380/.490/.4904/.984
(see why I'm dying for him to be promoted?). <b>Matt Hague</b> is the only
other offensive guy worth noticing, he's been leading the team
consistently all year. Since the trade, the pitching staff is made up
mostly of veteran guys. There's really no one you'd look at as a
prospect.<br />
<u><b><br /></b></u>
<u><b>New Hampshire</b></u><br />
Center fielder <b>Roemon Fields</b> in now
technically a Buffalo Bison, but only for a few days and the noise he
made this month was for NH. "Noise" meaning a .351 batting average (and
.792 OPS) in 97 at-bats before the promotion. There's not really another
hitter to get excited about from a prospect status on this team. Among
pitchers,<b> Blake McFarland</b> was unfairly squeezed out of AAA as the Jays
continue to accumulate veteran arms to stack in the bullpen, but he's
clearly too good for AA (49 K and 4 BB in 34.2 IP, 2.08 ERA) as is <b>Danny
Barnes</b> (56/16 in 45, 2.40).<br />
<br />
<u><b>Dunedin</b></u><br />
Currently
this is far and away the most prospect-laden squad in the organization
and many of them are living up to their billing. After a scorching start
upon being promoted to the D-Jays, <b>Anthony Alford</b> has struggled for the
last couple of weeks. I haven't heard anything but I'm relatively
certain that what we're seeing here is fatigue. He did go through a
slump in Lansing and then recovered just before the call up, so this
could be a matter of the adjustment game too. On the other hand, <b>Rowdy
Tellez</b> just keeps getting better. Since July 17 his OPS is .872 and he's
yet to go hitless in more than 2 consecutive games. Fellow 1B <b>Matt Dean</b>
is tied for second in the FSL with 11 HR (1 off the league lead) but
given the same # of AB, Tellez would have 20.<br />
The pitching staff
that has seen Jeff Hoffman and two talented relievers leave the
organization is actually better than ever right now thanks to three
promotions from Lansing. <b>Shane Dawson</b> just arrived (2 weeks late IMO)
and showed well in his first start. <b>Sean Reid-Foley</b>, whom MLB is now ranking as a top 5 prospect in the system, bounced back from his worst start of the year to throw 5.1 no-hit innings last time out - if he ever learns to command his stuff he has monster potential.<br />
And <b>Connor Greene</b> who came into the season as an interesting little sleeper and thanks to a boost in velocity is following the footsteps of Kendell Graveman. Greene is currently on a run of 19 innings without an earned run and in his last start struck out 10 in 7 innings. I could see a scenario in which he got a couple of starts at AA, and/or was assigned to the AFL and he very likely gets an invite to big league camp next spring.<br />
The unsung heroes of the staff are<b> Jeremy Gabryszwski</b> and <b>Brady Dragmire</b>. The former has held the opposition to 1 earned run in 5 of his last 7 outings (and 2 in another) for a 2.52 ERA over that span. The latter saw his ERA hit 10.80 on June 9, but since then he's thrown 32 innings, giving up a mere 3 earned runs on 11 hits and 6 walks while striking out 30 - that works out to an ERA of 0.84 and a WHIP of 0.53 - you'll hear his name again.<br />
<br />
<u><b> Lansing</b></u><br />
No matter who comes and who goes the Lugnuts remain a well-oiled machine. <b>Ryan McBroom</b>, who'd have log since moved up if Tellez wasn't in front of him, continues to lead the league in several categories including OPS. Unheralded <b>Chris Carlson</b> has been his stalwart companion while higher profile players have moved up and organization players move up and down. His OPS is higher than that of Alford or Tellez when they were promoted. The downside is that this was his age 24 season so he's basically 2 full years too old for the league - and McBroom is 23. <b>DJ Davis</b> continues to be consistently good-but-not-great which is great progress from last year.<br />
The surprise is that the rotation lost Greene, Reid-Foley, and Dawson and continues to purr. Unheralded<b> Connor Fisk</b>, 7 excellent outings in 9 appearances since his first start, has stepped up and equally little noticed<b> Starlyn Suriel</b> (who racked up 12 K in 6.1 IP last night) has been doing it all year, though prospect watchers never mention either. Lately they've gotten serious reinforcements from recovering <b>Tom Robson </b>and just promoted (and also coming off of TJ) <b>Clint Hollon</b>. Both men have been very impressive in a small sample with Lansing and should be fast risers up the prospect chart next season. <br />
<br />
<u><b>Vancouver</b></u><br />
There's less real prospect porn on this team than in any year since affiliating with the Blue Jays.Among the hitters, observers talk about a couple of 2015 draftees that look good - catcher <b>Ryan Hissy</b> (rd. 14) and infielder turned center fielder <b>Andrew Guillotte</b> (32) but it's more about being the best of a mediocre crew than being notable prospects.<br />
The pitching staff which just lost Hollon still has the Jays' 2015 1st round pick,<b> Jon Harris</b>. MLB.com now ranks him as the Jays #2 prospect. But he's had some trouble stretching out and was roughed up last time out. After a long college season, fatigue may be an issue here and most think he'll be assigned higher and be a fast mover next year. Otherwise, there's not much to comment on here other that Ryan Borucki who's well regarded by plagued with injuries.<br />
<br />
<u><b>Bluefield</b></u><br />
The hitter to watch on this team is CF <b>Rodrigo Orozco</b>. He's a slender (only 155 pounds) speedy (20 steals in 28 attempts in the DSL last year) 20 year old Panamanian that none of us had ever heard of before this year. He has a good eye at the plate and sports an .881 OPS. Expensive Venezuelan signee <b>Yeltsin Gudino</b>, who's a SS, bottomed out on July 12 with a .440 OPS, but the next game he went 3/4 and he turned his season around. He's hit .306/.383/.431/.814 in the 19 games since. Another prominent signing, OF <b>Freddie Rodriguez</b> has a strikingly similar track for the season, seeing his OPS hit a season low of .488 on July 12 as well, his line is .259/.333/.370 since. <br />
The pitching story is all about Dominican <b>Angel Perdomo</b> and Venezuelan <b>Juliandry Higuera</b>. The former a high-profile signing who's been moved slowly, the latter more under the radar but both have looked very good so far. Perdono has a 2.01 ERA and Higurea is at 2.82 after having his first rough outing last time out. Both have avoided the wildness that has plagued some of the Jays' other Latin pitchers. Top 20 prospect <b>Matt Smoral</b> is on this team too, at least two levels too low. He's struggled with injuries interfering with honing his delivery mechanics so apparently they are putting him in a low pressure environment. So far, he's been effective but far too wild.<br />
<br />
<u><b>GCL and DSL</b></u><br />
The hitter who caught everyone's attention on this team was 2015 draft steal <b>Reggie Pruitt</b> who exploded out of the gate hitting .379 in his first seven games. A couple of slumps since have brought the numbers down for the 18 year old but he likely still the highest ceiling guy among position players here. Outfielders Lance Jones and Kalik May both have good stats but they are 22 years old which is far too old to be in the GCL. Among pitchers, 2015 draftees <b>Justin Maese</b> (3rd rd.) and <b>Jose Espada</b> (5th) have dominated and (like Higuera and Perdomo above) are pushing the Jays to try them at the next level. Maese has a 0.92 ERA in 19.2 innings and Espada is at 2.35 with 26 K and only 4 walks in 23 IP. A couple of relievers are putting up nice numbers, Mike Estavez and Griffin Glaude, but again, they are 22 and 23 respectively so those numbers don't mean a lot.<br />
<br />
The DSL is another league in which you can't consider the stats without putting them in the context of age. Catchers <b>Antonio Conception</b> and <b>Yoman Rodriguez</b> have both hit well and both just turned 18. <b>Sterling Guzman</b>, a 17 year old SS has a .393 OPS and looks like a name we might here more about in years to come. Among pitchers, the high-profile signing and clear #1 prospect on the team is 17 year old<b> Juan Meza</b>, but after having been tested in the GCL he was dropped back to the Dominican but he's had control issues with both teams. <b>Wilfri Aleton</b> got a lot of money too and like Perdomo before him, the Jays have taken it slow with him and it's begun to pay off. Look for him to potentially make a little noise stateside. Less well know is 17 year old Colombian reliever <b>Alvaro Galdino </b>and recently promoted (to the GCL) starter<b> Guadalupe Chavez</b>, also 17, from Mexico. Both have more K's than IP and respectable walk rates.<br />
<br />
A lot of these guys will get a longer look when I do the off-season prospect list.<br />
<br />
And as I finish this post, the Toronto Blue Jays finish off the Yankees and now stand a mere 1.5 games out of first place in the AL East. They still haven't lost a game in which Tulo has played, taking 11 of 12. Wow!<br />
<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-59058902358840365022015-08-08T00:45:00.000-04:002015-08-09T02:46:05.307-04:00Jays win! and Stuff! I decided to go ahead and write this one Thursday evening (instead of waiting on further promotions as I had intended) because I wanted to update something I'd written last night, and get ahead of the crowd of folks discussing the subject. After writing the major portion of it and taking a couple of hours away to play some <i>Arkham Knight</i>, I came back to the computer to find Rich Griffin had published an article on the very subject while I wasn't looking. Sigh. No real need to finish last night anymore, right? Anyway, the subject at hand was my comment about there being an opening for the Blue Jays to demote Hutchison for a couple of weeks starting on the 17th, but there's a pitching rotation machination that I'd overlooked until Shi Davidi mentioned it. If the Jays employ it they will only need Hutchinson once more before 8/29. Here's the upcoming calendar and the way they could arrange it to make that happen, and a somewhat different suggestion than Griffin's proposal which has one more August game for Hutch than mine does (home games in bold):<br />
<br />
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<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,9]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,10]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,13]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Oakland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Oakland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,16]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">16</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"New York"]" style="color: #1c4587; font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">New York</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,18]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Philidelphia"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Philidelphia</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Philidelphia"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Philidelphia</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,20]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,21]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">21</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,22]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,23]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">23</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at LA"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at LA</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,24]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">24</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"at Texas"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">at Texas</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchinson"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchinson</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,30]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Detroit"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Detroit</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Price"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Price</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,31]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">31</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Cleveland"]" style="font-weight: bold; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Cleveland</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Serendipitously, the day after Hutch's next start is a Dickey start and if Thole comes off the DL in Buffalo on schedule (8/10) then the EASY choice for the Blue Jays (having already discussed recalling him) is to demote Hutchison and promote Thole then, and it leaves the rest of the team untouched. Hutch will have time to get two starts (on five days rest each, in fact) in Buffalo to try and get a handle on his problems, and the only real issue is it spoils my desire to have Pompey up sooner rather than later. It would be kinda crazy for them to pass up this chance, and if Thole isn't ready then go ahead and call Pompey. There might be a complaint that you don't want a guy like Pompey to be on the bench but even if you don't give him some reps in CF, it's only 18 days and that's insignificant in terms of development time. <br />
ETA: some speculation about that the Jays will go to a seven-man pen with Sanchez off the suspension, and that might lead to a Pompey recall, but as I write this no word.<br />
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Of course from this flows the next consideration, in terms of roster moves, and one I totally overlooked last night - the question of playoff roster eligibility. In order to be eligible you have to be on the active 25 man roster, or the DL (or bereavement, suspension, etc) by midnight August 31 in order to be eligible for the playoff roster, unless there's an injury when the playoffs begin. Most of that group will be an easy call:<br />
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Price, Buehrle, Dickey, Estrada<br />
Osuna, Sanchez, Lowe, Cecil, Hawkins, Hendricks, Loup<br />
Martin, Navarro, Encarnacion, Smoak, Colabello, Travis, Tulo, Goins, Donaldson, Bautista, Pillar, Revere<br />
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That leaves two spots. If Stroman's recovery goes well and he shows good in September he's in too, leaving only one. As it stands now, if you use Hutch to pitch on the 29th, and he bumps either Thole or Schultz (which, it'd be Thole because all you'd lose is that Martin would have to catch Dickey once while Thole was down for 10 days - it's not like they are taking 3 catchers to the playoffs), he'd be the only other guy eligible to be on this team other than the guy he didn't bump. And Saunders if we believe he's ever going to actually play this season.<br />
If we want a 4th outfielder better than Colobello (and I surely do) and Saunders still hasn't played, then you have to connive to get Pompey on the roster before Sept. 1. Basically there's only two ways you can do that. The first is if someone is on the DL. If Travis is still not back by the end of the month then problem solved - option Kawasaki on 8/31 for Pompey, then when the rosters expand you can add either Travis or, say, Diaz to protect yourself in the middle infield until Travis is ready. If Travis comes back sooner, and no one else hits the DL . . .the only other option is to play the August 31 game short (shorter than customary) in some other area and lose the guy demoted as a playoff option barring injury (if there's an injury to the playoff eligible players you can replace him with any player in the organization). My guess is that if this was the play, the guy who loses out is Bo Schultz. That said, it wouldn't shock me if the team played it slow with Travis and let the situation work itself out.<br />
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Oh, and by the way, pretty decent little ballgame tonight in the Bronx, no? I know you don't need me to tell you that this is far and away the best Blue Jay experience since Joe touched 'em all. What I am trying to figure out is how this team keeps from playing .800 ball the rest of the season! David Price tomorrow, clear my schedule. <br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-39031864940318669062015-08-06T01:02:00.002-04:002015-08-06T13:25:03.934-04:00So much stuff!So I've been trying to get to this for a couple of days now and the longer I'm delayed the more stuff that keeps accumulating. Today was the best stuff since Monday - news about Marcus Stroman!<br />
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As basically everyone is reporting via Twitter today, Marcus Stroman will throw off a mound at Duke next week [correction: Stroman tweeets today that he's headed for Florida on Saturday so apparently his mound work will be in Dunedin] and if all goes well is tentatively scheduled to start a rehab assignment Aug. 21 which gives him up to 17 days before the end of the MiLB regular season (and if he still needs time they can assign him to a team that made the playoffs and Lansing already qualified in the first half). An ideal schedule given off days would have hi throw maybe twice in the GCL, then step over to the Dunedin team for probably three outings on either the second or third day after an appearance, then to Buffalo for the last week of their season. If he's ready at that point he'd join the Blue Jays.<br />
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John Gibbons says he envisions a relief role but if you'll recall, Gibby was pretty sure Sanchez would start off in low leverage situations when he came back from injury. But there's the potential that Drew Hutchinson is increasingly becoming an issue that's going to need to be addressed. Which brings me to a brainstorm that I apparently shared with Matt Gwin at <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/marcus-stroman-bluejays-injury-mound-rehab/">BlueJaysPlus</a> - tandem starts. About 4:30 CDT today I tweeted in reply to a question from Charlie Caskey about where Stroman fit into the pen thus:<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/CharlieCaskey">@CharlieCaskey</a> Would love to see him tandem with Hutch 5/3 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></div>
— Tammy Rainey (@Tammy_Beth) <a href="https://twitter.com/Tammy_Beth/status/629037875393212416">August 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
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I have no idea when Gwin posted his column but I sure didn't see it before I made the suggestion. There's a good reason why we both suggested it though, it makes great sense. Hutch, as most know by now, goes from mediocre to disastrous when he gets to the third turn through the opposing order.<br />
He has a high ERA in the first inning too, but there's only one solution to that. So my proposal is to line Stroman up with Hutchinson's first or second start in September. Pull Hutch in theory before the lead-off hitter gets to the plate for the 3rd time unless he is having an amazing game (unless of course he get's waxed but you could figure that out). This should be somewhere around the 5th inning. Let's say he makes it through five. Then bring on Stroman. For two innings the first time. Then treat them both as the "5th starter" in terms of their routine. You'll get 5 or 6 outings to build Stroman up slowly while lowering the potential for Hutch to melt-down and, just maybe, still giving him innings to try and figure out what's gone wrong. When October rolls around Stroman will be well prepared to be the go-to long reliever to bail out any starter that gets in trouble early.<br />
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Assuming of course that he's got his mojo back.<br />
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Other items that came to my attention this week....<br />
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Item - After David Price's royal entrance on Monday, Gibbons told the scrum that they would try to keep Price on a 5th day rotation, rather than 5th game - but he also indicated that Price would likely start in NY on the 14th (5th game), rather than Oakland on the 13th (5th day). The reason that a lot of paid observers were originally buzzing about the 5th day idea was the notion of getting an extra start out of him - but once they choose the 14th (which they should, IMO) that option is lost. With the several off days coming up, schedule manipulation is possible. For example, you can't skip Hutch's turn the next two times through, but after his outing on 8/16, you can use 4 starters until 8/29 (if they were bold they would send him to Buffalo for a couple of weeks and use the roster spot for another need). After that the 5th day choice makes little difference except that you get him into the Baltimore series on Labor Day weekend. Until the next-to-last weekend of the season. If you skip Hutchison that weekend you can again get Price into a Baltimore series instead of a TB series - so you can adjust there based on the standings and who you need to beat the most.<br />
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Either way, f you go 5th day throughout (where possible) Price lines up as available for any potential WC game - if you go 5th game he doesn't.<br />
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Speaking of Price, as irrational as it is to hope, there definitely seems to be a subtle feeling building up that the Blue Jays would have the opportunity to sign Price to an extension if they are willing to be competitive. He commented specifically that his priority is to go to a place with the best chance of winning, more so than the highest contract. If he's sincere, putting a ring on that finger would be a convncing argument. The whole intrigue about Dave Dombrowski's availability just compounds the feeling.<br />
Far be it for me to waste too much space speculating about the future during this magic but it's kind of how I think. Consider a $3 mil signing bonus, $26 per for 7, and a $5 mil buy-out of a $15 mil option at the end would give you a deal worth $190 or $205 depending on the option. That may sound like a burden but $26 million will be considerably less money in the baseball economy 5-7 years down the road than it is now. There are a massive ton of "ifs" o overcome though.<br />
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Item - The rumor first bandied by Jeff Blair on Monday that the team was discussing bring Josh Thole up to give Russ martin a break from the rigors of catching RA Dickey is on hold for a bit. Thole hit the 7 day DL in buffalo today with a minor infection of some sort. If he was better in 7 days he could n theory be activated for Dickey's start vs Oakland on the 13th. Speculation is that this would be when you drop the 'pen to 7 men. But there's still the problem of Chris Colabello being your 4th outfielder (or Kawasaki!). Here's my suggestion, assuming we don't learn more in the mean time about Devon Travis., who can't be activated before the 13th anyway<br />
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Thole for Schultz on the 13th - he's the obvious choice unless they want to run with 1 lefty, either way the stay will be short enough no option will be burned;<br />
Pompey for Hutch on the 17th - don't need him until the 29th<br />
Hutch back on the 29th for Loup (only be without him for 3 games, could do Pompey here too)<br />
On September 1 you bring back Loup and Schultz, along with Delebar, Tepera, Carrera and Travis if he's not already back. When Buffalo's season ends you might select Matt Hague and (so Wilneer believes) Roemon Fields. Along with Stroman of course.<br />
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Item - The Blue Jays came into Wednesday's game with the best team ERA, best Starter's ERA, and best bullpen ERA in the league since the break. At least one of those is certainly still intact. Readers here (both of you) are not entirely surprised as you're aware that the teams' pitching, in the stat lines, has been fine since mid-May. The Blue Jays runs allowed per game since May 18 is (again, not counting tonight's game) is 3.84 in 53 games - which compares favorably to the top teams in the league in that category (#1 KC at 3.72 as of 8/4, #5 Oakland at 3.80). It's been even better since the break (3.12) but the last 11 before the break, bloated by Boyd's unfortunate adventure and the Doubront game in KC, balance it out a bit. Which is to say their are peaks and valleys with any team but the pitching staff has been fine in the aggregate for a while as previously discussed here.<br />
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Item - the Blue Jays hold the second wild card, are a game back of the Angels for the first position, and now only 4.5 back of the Yankees for the division, with 6 of the next 10 games against them. It's going to be insane.<br />
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Coming up - it's time for the last in-season minor league review in a day or two but I may hesitate a bit to let the potential promotions happen. I'd been expecting Shane Dawson to move up to Dunedin since the PAG finished, and he finally has as well as pegging Clinton Hollon to move into his Lansing turn from Vancouver. Both pitchers had their first start with their respective new teams tonight and both pitched quite well. Additionally I'd had my eye on Juliandry Higura as a potential promotion from Bluefield into Hollon's spot but he's had a couple of setbacks and Angel Perdomo has clearly edged in front of him - though I still think both deserve a promotion, plus the Bluefield squad needs room for Justin Maese and Jose Espada who need out of the rain-soaked GCL which is playing merry hob with their pitching rotation. Another promotion I'd been precdicting is Jon Harris from Vancouver but the expected move towards domination hasn't come and he may be feeling the effects of fatigue. Right now he's just not forcing their hand. I'll look at all the promotions, the players that have made serious progress in the last month, and my tentative revised prospect list with 10 pitchers removed from the discussion. <br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-80934431746990921862015-07-31T22:37:00.001-04:002015-07-31T22:37:10.071-04:00Well<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://cdn.ymaservices.com/editorial_service/media/images/000/054/963/original/wellthatescalatedquicklymeme.png.png?1406851480" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://cdn.ymaservices.com/editorial_service/media/images/000/054/963/original/wellthatescalatedquicklymeme.png.png?1406851480" height="166" width="320" /></a></div>
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Helluva week, eh?<br />
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On today's deals, I can be pretty brief. The Lowe deal is a nice surprise. I always thought Rob Rasmussen was being neglected and Seattle will, I expect, get a nice little return right there. The other two are so very far away that they would have to have been special indeed to worry about losing them. Doubront to Oakland was actually something I anticipated the day before the Kazmir deal, he's just their kind of guy.<br />
Ben Revere? Eh. Okay, fine. For my money, I'd wager that you could plug Dalton Pompey into left field and get more production than they are going to get from Revere, but I'll concede Revere having been capable for a few years does offer more certainty, and does hit lefty. And if they follow through with a strict platoon, they will maximize his value since he doesn't hit left-handers well. But beyond this season, I wonder what it means for Pompey. Maybe you go back to playing him in left and put Pillar in the fourth outfielder role where he's better suited. Then there's Saunders which...I dunno.<br />
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As I discussed in my previous post, adding five veterans to the major league roster is a direct result of Anthopoulos' organizational philosophy to horde desirable pitching prospects in anticipation of their trade vale, and this is a fact that needs considerable notice in the media and in the front office - particularly if the Blue Jays do indeed make the run deep into October. It's also a reflection, as Alex told the press today, of the conscience choice over the late winter period to reserve a portion of their salary allotment from the corporate bosses to give themselves flexibility to take on salary in late July, which they have. The difference between the opening day payroll in 2014 and 2015 was a little over $11 million and Beeston insisted over the winter that the payroll would go up. About 7.5 of that will go to David Price. Just under $1 mil more goes to Hawkins. Mark Lowe makes little and the Phillies picked up the rest of Revere's deal. But that's almost $9 million that wouldn't have been there if the Jays had given it to some mediocre SP like Justin Masterson last winter.<br />
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Let's give as much credit as is obviously due. <br />
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And as I'm finishing this the Blue Jays just beat the new Ace of the team with the best record in the AL for their first three-game winning streak since June 19. Perhaps it is a new day indeed. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-83769144410736253742015-07-30T22:23:00.003-04:002015-07-31T00:10:09.473-04:00You tell 'em I'm coming!For some reason that was the thing that came to mind today in the wake of the Blue Jays' latest blockbuster - looking at the Yankees and thinking of the Tombstone quote, paraphrased for the team pronouns "You tell 'em we're coming! And Hell's coming with us!"<br />
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The conclusion here is in line with the consensus in the media and around the league - this team is an odds on favorite to blow by the illusory Twins and focus their sites on the Yankees, seven games off in the distance atop the AL East. I think they can catch them in what may be the most exciting September anyone can remember. The Jays are positioned as well as anyone could ask to be while being a .500 team. Besides the offense and the newly enriched pitching, they are close to a catchable team that they host for 4 next week, have 23 of their next 34 games at home, have 13 remaining games against the team leading their division, who just put their best starter on the DL with a sore forearm (at least).<br />
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It's not at all safe to assume Alex is done dealing, at the very least it would be profitable to come up with a "#6" starter to stash in Buffalo in case of an injury (a better one than Felix Dourbront) , but as it stands now, if the bullpen can shake off the inexplicable curse they seem to be afflicted by, it's hard to imagine the team being better equipped to do what needs to be done without imagining something insane (I know I know, the Tulo deal was insane but you can't assume something like that). The Blue Jays have:<br />
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The best catcher in the AL<br />
Three first baseman in the AL Top 10 by wOBA<br />
A second baseman second only to Jason Kipnis by wOBA<br />
The best shortstop in baseball<br />
The best third baseman in baseball<br />
Arguably the best RF in the AL (JD Martinez is just ahead by wOBA so maybe 2nd)<br />
A wizard defender in CF with a competent bat who's on pace for a 3 WAR season<br />
A Top 5 DH (in what is for him a down year so far)<br />
And a hole in LF...where the just happen to have their #1 prospect pounding on the door.<br />
One of the ten or so best Ace's in the game<br />
Arguably a Top 5 (AL) #2 starter<br />
A Top 4 closer (by WAR)<br />
and assuming health, no excuses.<br />
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If the team decides to start Dickey on 3 days' rest Sunday and push Price's first game back to Monday (which would be very smart) then Price will project to start, assuming the rotation is not further altered, 4 of the 13 games they have left against the Yankees, along with debuting against the Twins and late September games against Baltimore and the Rays.<br />
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One thing that no one else seems willing to suggest about Price is on my mind. The general assumption is that the Jays will definitely lose him to free agency this winter...but...is that such a sure thing? Paul Beeston will ride into the sunset after the World Series and, with any luck, take his five year limit policy with him. That's one obstacle aside. Another big issue is the whole "Free agents won't take our money" thing, which is really why I'm writing this paragraph. What have we learned from Buehrle, Reyes, and Donaldson? That players who initially are reluctant to play for Toronto end up loving it once they are on the team. The hidden benefit of trading for David Price is that he gets a chance to love it before hitting the market, taking that factor off the table.<br />
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The cost is another matter, of course, and I don't think the Jays are prepared to match the completely insane deal Max Scherzer signed last year, but is anyone? The last three years of that deal lists him making, between salary and differed signing bonus FIFTY million dollars per year. Is THAT going to become the common deal for the top-of-the-market pitcher? The next highest paid SP is Justin Verlander (there's a cautionary tale, eh?) who's 7 year deal which began in 2013 totals $180 million and that is, perhaps, a better model. Seven years at $25m plus another 6-10 split between a signing bonus and an option buyout would beat that so that's the neighborhood Rogers would have to consider. But I think they can afford it. There's $59 mil committed to 2016 (assuming Dickey isn't picked up), and something around $21 mil is a reasonable estimate for arbitration. Assuming a $140 million budget (using the 137 in 2014 as a guide for that) then 25 for Price still leaves over $30 million to fill out a team with not many holes.<br />
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It gets even better after that. Yes eventually arbitration - or a contract to avoid it - will add big dollars for Donaldson, and re-signing Bautista will cost something, but you'll be out to around 2019 before anyone else starts getting expensive and if you've guessed wrong about your budgets by then (given inflation) you have the option to deal Price if he hasn't pulled a Verlander (and if you are afraid of that you're never going to sign a major deal). Plus, there's the benefit of keeping him off the Yankees and Red Sox. I wouldn't be foolish enough to be optimistic given Rogers' history, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.<br />
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All that aside, the future is NOW and hopefully this will be the stretch run we tell our grandkids about. <br />
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(Note: in the next few days I'll do a brief update to my mid-season list of prospects now that the crop has been thinned a bit)<br />
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Addendum: This is a bit off topic from the above but it fits directly into the context of this weeks events. One of the refrains that was beaten to death in the early part of the year by the sports media was that this was the "make or break" season for Alex Anthpoulos after a mere six seasons (compare that to JP's 8 futile seasons). Nevermind that the Royals were in fine shape with a GM that didn't get his team over .500 until his 7th season for just one easy example. The real problem with this notion is that AA had packed out the farm system with talent despite having spent considerable prospect capital two winters ago in an attempt to leverage a talented team into the playoffs (an attempt that was derailed by a string of key injuries) while still laying the foundations for success in the majors through uncanny trades and usually strong development. Impatience was in danger of costing the team dearly if the rumors were true.<br />
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The irony of all that is that what we've seen this week is exactly what Alex told us he intended to do in his first year on the job. While I've been unable to find a link to the exact quote, paraphrased what he said was that great pitching was very expensive and hard to come by, but you could always trade for and sign good hitters. In another moment he said his goal would always be to have an all-star caliber talent at every position, even if that might not be realistic.<br />
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So we have before us a man who - along with his scouts and development staff - who has drafted (or signed as an IFA) and then dealt for major league help:<br />
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Noah Syndergaard<br />
Asher Wojciechowski<br />
Justin Nicolino<br />
Sean Nolin<br />
Joe Musgrove<br />
Kevin Comer<br />
Daniel Norris<br />
Anthony DeSclafini<br />
Matt Boyd<br />
Kendall Graveman<br />
Jeff Hoffman <br />
Jario Labourt<br />
Jesus Tinoco<br />
Miguel Castro<br />
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And there's still a dozen or more pitchers of similar quality still in the system from Marcus Stroman down to Justin Maese.<br />
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Because of those young pitchers the current teams has 3/5 of it's starting rotation and the left side of the infield manned by two men who are the best in the game at their respective positions. Pitchers from that list put Troy Tulowitzki and David Price in a Jays uniform this week. This scenario is EXACTLY what Alex said he intended to do six years ago. It simply takes time to execute a master plan. Executives, and some fans, need to appreciate that reality - and their GM.<br />
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Oh, and that other comment? If you count Encarnacion as 1B, he's 5/9 of the way to nailing that one too.<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-5334989971384666942015-07-29T02:10:00.001-04:002015-07-29T02:10:02.873-04:00VertigoDamn this team will drive you insane, right? Write up an extensive review of the pitching in which you conclude they are better than advertised, but have an insane propensity to "choke" in 1-run situations (as they did a couple of times since I wrote that) and on the most exciting day of the year they go out and watch their bullpen throw 5 innings of no-hit ball in a 1 run situation and....still lose.<br />
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Le sigh.<br />
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Okay, anyway, about that excitement, eh? No need for me to tell you what happened, or who was involved so let me just rattle off some random items that together make up my reaction:<br />
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<b>Devon Travis</b> - as I tweeted last night, Travis single-handedly made it easy for the team to trade their lead-off hitter. So good has Travis been that if you gave him the same number of PA as Jason Kipnis he'd pro-rate to 4.3 WAR...and now he's hurt again. He left tonight's game with pain in the same area of his shoulder as the previous injury that sidelined him for 5 weeks. He first said he intended to play through it but we saw how that went last time and the team might not let him do that. If he hits the DL that presents an interesting problem for the line-up. Either Gibby carries on with the same logic that he applied to Donaldson, he might be bold enough to try Tulo in the first spot and tell him to ignore the "table setter" business and play his regular game. The other alternative is to find someone who can do it which brings me to...<br />
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<b>Dalton Pompey</b> - Hasn't gone hitless in three weeks; I've been convinced for a week or so now that if they don't trade him, he'll be recalled no later than August 1. But the option is there to go ahead and bring him back right away and plug him into left and lead-off and count on him to keep a level head this time. He definitely has the talent.<br />
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<b>LaTroy Hawkins</b> - I was probably the least enthusiastic among the positive thinkers about adding a 42 year old as a key component of our bullpen but I read a point this morning that brought be around a bit. The one thing this bullpen doesn't have that has been a fixture in the past is a "wise old man" veteran. Think Darren Oliver. In a bullpen with so many puzzling outcomes, possibly that's exactly what this crew needs. Anthopoloulos bragged on his reputation as a clubhouse guy (something that's also widely said about Tulo) and it seems likely that his contribution outside the lines was part of why Alex wanted him.<br />
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<b>Troy Tulowitzki</b> - There's been several references out there today to Denver Post articles which provide reason for hop on the injury front, but that is clearly the major - really the only - red flag in the deal. I'll add my voice to the choir singing his praises as the best shortstop in the game, when he's playing. In the short term that's still in our favor because for this year and the next two, we'd have the same problem with Reyes who's a lesser player on both sides of the ball when both are healthy. The risk, of course comes after 2017. Still, he's two years younger than Reyes so you didn't take on a deal that runs into his late 30's. I think he makes the team better, potentially much better. I wonder if Gibby will hit him between Edwin and Jose?<br />
As for the contract, Evan Ross and Blue Jays Plus did a nice job of shooting down the "bad contract" meme <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/troy-tulowitzki-rockies-jays-contract/">here</a>, and he nailed it. Also, due to the salary inflation in baseball, $20 million in 2019 isn't the same as $20 million now. Even better, it's not even that bad through the life of the contract. The Jays actually save $2 million each of the next two years, then they pay out a net $16 mil in 2018 (because Reyes had a 4 million buyout) and the only time they take on the full $20 mil in in 2019. Tulo's contract calls for only $14 mil in 2020 and $15 mil on his 2021 option year (which, if he's any good at all you probably pick up since it has a $4 mil buyout and you probably won't be able to buy much of a veteran SS for a net $11 mil in 2021. That's not bad at all.<br />
It's also not a contract that hamstrings the Jays payroll, as they only have $59 million committed (to four players) in 2016, and arbitration salaries that should run (based in the current roster, 7 players) around $21 million. There's a lot of good young pre-arb talent to fill out the team, but it will need a front of the rotation guy with some experience, a closer and a reserve catcher - and have as much as $40 million to work with without assuming a noticeable payroll bump.<br />
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<b>Jeff Hoffman</b> - I loved dreaming on the guy, and I'll be worried that he might turn into peak-Verlander at some point but, it's a tribute to how much emotion we invest n our prospects that it's even a question to be asked whether you trade one of your top three prospects for five years of the best player at a crucial position. That's why we have Tulo instead of Cueto, by the way - the Royals paid out for two months of a very good starter, while the Jays paid out for over FIVE YEARS (plus an affordable option!) of the guy who's currently the best in the world at what he does. We bought the same amount of control we gave up. It does put some pressure on the Jays to increase rotation depth for 2016 which points right back to AA shopping for pitchers like Tyson Ross or Andrew Casner who have some control left, but that's a swap you make ever day and then sort of the consequential implications later.<br />
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<b>Miguel Castro and Jesus Tinoco</b> - I had, on my totally unauthoritative mid-season list, Hoffman at #1, Castro at #6 and Tinoco at #21 (with a bullet). Castro is exciting but very raw, actual talent evaluators on-line can give you details but he's not a guy you're going to be outraged over dealing. Tinoco is intriguing but he's not going to make a significant impact before the end of the decade. Can't lose sleep over that, particularly when you're dealing from a position of tremendous depth. <br />
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<b> The Unknown Starter </b>- The team still has solid assets to add another pitcher. AA has said, wisely, that he doesn't expect to deal from the 25 man roster, and as I've said, Norris, Alford and Pompey would be very tough to move (I actually had bad dreams last night about waking up to find Alford was the third prospect to the Rockies) but even if you take them off the table for the sake of discussion there's Matt Boyd, Sean Reid-Foley, Richard Urena (now blocked) Max Pentecost (value diminished by injury), Matt Smoral (ditto), Jario Labourt (profile raised by Future's Game selection), Rowdy Tellez (which would hurt me) and even DJ Davis (raw tools are there). That will get you something, the question is who? After the Tulo deal, you can't even assume it will be someone you even thought was available. But I still like Tyson Ross (whom I fear can't be had without giving up Norris). A little over 60 hours to go<br />
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The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-59899600348940360182015-07-26T14:52:00.000-04:002015-07-26T21:46:33.742-04:00Worth notingFeeling some pressure to get this finished before there's an announcement that makes some part of it obsolete!<br />
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You may have heard by now that Drew Hutchison is struggling on the road this year (after being much better on the road last year - baseball, eh?). But the extremes are flabbergasting. Consider:<br />
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Home: 9G - 57 IP - 47 H - 14 ER - 13 BB - 53 K - 2.21 ERA - 1.05 WHIP - 7.42 H/9<br />
Road: 11G - 51 IP - 81 H - 51 ER - 21 BB - 45 K - 9.00 ERA - 2.00 WHIP - 14.29 H/9<br />
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THAT, my loyal readers, is batshit crazy. No lesser description will suffice. Who can say if the trend will hold, but there's one glittery silver lining: 6 of Hutch's next 7 starts, assuming the Jays don't tamper with the rotation for any reason, come at home. That takes us all the way to Labor Day (by then Maybe we can give some starts to Stroman, amirite?).<br />
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Dalton Pompey went 5/6 Saturday with a double and a triple. In eight games, coming into that game, since returning to AAA, he was hitting .355/.474/.429/.903 - not it's .432./.523/.622/1.155 which is, ya know, pretty solid. Plus, he's only struck out twice. I'm relatively certain the Jays are waiting until August 1 (if he's not traded) to bring him back which will give him another 5 games or so to polish but it doesn't look like he needs them. I'm gonna say he's ready to be our everyday Left Fielder.<br />
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Shi Davidi reports the Reds wanted Stroman plus in any potential Cueto deal - yeah . . . . no.<br />
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The weekend has been buzzing on the trade front. The Royals seem to have Cueto (and his regular turn would have him facing the Jays in Toronto on Thursday), the Royals are zooming on Cole Hamels (which is an outcome I like because it keeps him off the Yankess and Red Sox, as well as off the roster of 2015 playoff contenders) and the Jays keep being linked to controllable guys. First it was Carlos Carrasco which was dreaming big and didn't work out, now it's Mike Fliers from Milwaukee, presumably that would make them look longingly at Tyson Ross too, who's maybe at the top of my list of targets.<br />
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With Buehrle going today, and two at home versus the hapless Phillies the Jays have a chance to build some momentum. After that it's 4 against the Royals (who's starting pitching is vulnerable, other than potentially dealing with Cueto) and four against the can't-possibly-be-that-good-Twins. The Royals are a good team on the road, the Twins aren't. If they play well they could run off a 9-3 run (from last night) going into a crucial 3 game set in New York on August 7-9 which will be follow by home series against Oakland and the Yankees again. This August needs to be the reverse of last August.<br />
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Update:<br />
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So much for that "have a good run" idea, eh? Since the winning streak ended the Jays have almost the exact same winning percentage as they had when the streak started. Even though statistically the pitching has been much better, as previously noted. This does not speak well for the future despite a tremendous open door to the playoffs. As Ben Nichelson-Smith tweeted moments ago, their are only 5 AL teams over .500 at the moment, and all of them hold a playoff position as of now. The very vulnerable Twins are just 3 games ahead of the Blue Jays, and lest we lose hope, the Royals were 50-50 on July 23 last year. Still, the clock is ticking. Loudly.<br />
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Jon Morosi tweeted thus:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
<i><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> still talking with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> on starters and relievers, but Toronto would struggle to fit all of Kimbrel's salary into payroll.</i></div>
<i>— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/625448973906477056">July 26, 2015</a></i></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Given that Kimbrel would only be due something just short of $3.5 million as of today, this can only be a reference to the future commitment - $11 million in 2016, and $13 million in 2017 (with a $13 million option on 2018 with a $1 million buyout). Let me say in passing that $13 million doesn't buy you nearly as much talent as it used to, that's less than the qualifying offer for free agents in each of the last two years. The Jays paid BJ Ryan $12 million 8 years ago (I know how that turned out).Kimbrel has the lowest xFIP in the National League and is, in today's market, NOT overpaid.<br />
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However, the Blue Jays have made it clear they need a starter much more than a reliever. What gives? Consider (and I may be pipe-dreaming here as I hardly ever come p with a speculation like this that plays out - but what the hell) ...consider that there are a couple of rumors concerning the Padres: the first is that they may be under some pressure to move salary (and it's not like Melvin Upton is going anywhere) and the second is that among the starters they are least motivated to move Tyson Ross (for obvious reasons) so what if...just what IF the Blue Jays are expressing willingness to take on Kimbrel's contract in order to get Ross, and are willing to pony up prospect capital for 5 years of control between the two (2 on Ross, 3 on Kimbrel).<br />
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From a financial point of view, the Jays can easily rationalize this because Ross, whatever he wins in Arbitration, will make under-market salaries for those two years, while Kimbrel, though more than Alex likes to pay for relief innings, is not exorbitant and they can simply calculate that the savings on Ross off-sets the excess (as they see it) on the closer position. And make no mistake, Ross is worth it - indeed he's in my view the most desirable target among all potentially available starters. There are only 5 AL starters with more fWAR than he has, only 5 with a better xFIP (and 3 of those are on the Indians). He's a starter who can line up with Pineda or Archer without taking a back seat.<br />
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As a bonus, and this might not happen even if the acquisition was made but I'd have to seriously consider it: assuming neither Sanchez or Osuna was in the deal (which would kind of deteat the purpose) then Osuna and Kimbrel give you the 1-2 to end the game, and Sanchez can be stretched out quickly to go back into the rotation. Include Hutchison in the deal, or demote him, and you upgrade the rotation in two slots. Also, with Kimbrel on the team it further opens up the possibility Osuna comes in as a candidate to start next spring. That's a lot of potential good out of this deal.<br />
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Castro + Boyd + Reid-Foley + something like Urena maybe? You might have to such it up and inclde Sanchez instead of Castro. It would be worth it.<br />
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The key might be whether or not they can get someone to take Shields - which would relieve the salary crunch without making Kimbrel an issue. Here's hoping!<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-55696607459428384142015-07-22T03:41:00.001-04:002015-07-23T02:57:13.599-04:00Fun With Arbitrary End PointsThis idea's been knocking around in my head for a couple of weeks or more and I've put it off, reluctant to do the drudge work necessary to parse the stats. But the trade-fever is rising to acquire pitching, almost certainly a starter, and with <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-bullpen-has-been-less-than-sum-of-its-parts/">Mike Wilner's column</a> Monday providing renewed inspiration, I took some time this evening to dig into the idea. What you are about to read is going to be rife with caveats, but that's okay because I'm not trying to be exact here but rather just give an overview of a general idea that you might have sensed but been sure about. <br />
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With time perhaps tthe impression has faded for many, but I noted before in this space (about halfway into the season) that there's a distinct difference between the performance of the team over the first 40 games, and thereafter. Coming into Tuesday night's game the team has played 94games which creates some convenient points of reference. Forty games - not mathematically 1/4 of the season but as close as you can get in whole games - followed by 54 games, 1/3 of a season. There's a big difference between the two. Why did I pick that date? If you're a regular reader (hey you two!) you can possibly guess. The 40th game was the one that the Jays surprised team watchers by inserting Todd Redmond into the rotation for one start to give the rest of the rotation a day of rest. It's hard to claim, of course, that this act had any direct impact at all for more than 10 days or so, but nevertheless, the numbers are striking.<br />
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Let's also distinguish that I'm not talking about the hitters here. Through 40 games, the Jays averaged 5.25 runs per game, since then it's climbed to 5.33 runs per game. Up, but not enough to point to any sort of trend. And with that, Caveat #1: This is going to be all about what are commonly called Arbitrary End Points (AEP) - primarily that one AEP on May 18. However, it's not quite as useless as that might make it seem because it's a straight "before and after" look at samples of significant size, it's not like saying "if you took out this bit and that bit then..." (although there are two minor points where I notice something by doing that further down). I believe ther is value in noting a "turning point" either for the good or the bad - you just can't get carried away with it. There's also value, in my opinion, in noticing if a player was very good most of the time but had one wee or 10 days or whatever when he went sideways. For example, that whole business about how Marco Estrada sucked last year? Yeah - for about 3 weeks. He got absolutely rocked for a short period, including a huge chunk of the homers he allowed, and outside of that stretch was just the same as he'd been all along. I think noting that was predictive of what we could expect this year.<br />
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This entry is about pitching. I'm not going to argue that I know why the breakdown looks like this, or that it's anything other than random in terms of which AEP you might have chosen. But it exists. In the first 40 games, they were 18-22 and since then, coming into the Oakland series, they've gone 29-25, and when you see these numbers you'll be scratching your head that the latter isn't way better. What you are about to see has great risk of being presented in a confusing way, but hopefully I can organize it reasonably well. There will be two major sets of stats, obviously, separating the Starters from the Bullpen - with only Estrada making this difficult. I'll sort him out though. Another caveat: ERA is a bit of a blunt instrument, there are other stats of the sort that inform xFIP for example, which get more precisely to the quality of pitching, but for an overview like this, ERA will do.<br />
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The Jay's starting set has been remarkably stable this year. Three have made every turn of the rotation, Norris gave way to Estrada who's been a rock, and Sanchez is the one injury which triggered a revolving door which has not produced good results. What I've done, then, is charted the five who held their job on quality as a separate set from those who did not hold on (and Doubront who seems destined to lose out to whomever is acquired). This also allows me to distinguish those who pitched on both sides of the AEP from those who haven't. Before you read further, do be aware I've caught myself in several minor errors already (like failing to remember Doubront had a bullpen appearance) so if you spot an error, don't be stunned (as if...).<br />
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First set. The first column of numbers is their ERA through May 18, and the second column is their ERA since. Then a column with IP and ER before, and one with those after the AEP, and finally a column with IP per start before and one after. Note that Estrada did some quality relief work before moving into the
rotation, the stat you see represents only his starts.The bullpen work
will come later.<br />
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--><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Name"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Name</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP/G Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP/G Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP/G After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP/G After</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Buehrle"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Buehrle</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.36]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.36</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2.06]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2.06</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"47 ' 28"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">47 ' 28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"74.1 ' 17"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">74.1 ' 17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.88]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.88</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7.41]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7.41</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hutchison"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hutchison</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.17]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.17</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.52]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.52</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"42.1 ' 29"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">42.1 ' 29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"61.2 ' 31"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">61.2 ' 31</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.61]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.61</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Dickey"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Dickey</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.76]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.76</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.95]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.95</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"50 ' 32"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">50 ' 32</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"70.2 ' 31"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">70.2 ' 31</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.25</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.42]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.42</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.14]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.52</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.1]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"14.2 ' 10"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">14.2 ' 10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"69.2 ' 24"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">69.2 ' 24</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.89]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.89</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.33]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.33</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Sanchez"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Sanchez</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.26]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2.57]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2.57</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"38 ' 18"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">38 ' 18</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"28 ' 8"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">28 ' 8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.43]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.43</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,7]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Total"]" style="border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Total</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.44]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.44</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.28]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"192 ' 116"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">192 ' 116</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"304.33 ' 111"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">304.33 ' 111</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.49]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.49</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.48]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.48</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Now here's a chart for the short-term guys<br />
<br />
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--><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Name"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Name</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP/G Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP/G Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP/G After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP/G After</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Copeland"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Copeland</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.46]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.46</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"15.1 ' 11"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">15.1 ' 11</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.11]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.11</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Boyd"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Boyd</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,14.85]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14.85</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"6.2 ' 11"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">6.2 ' 11</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.33]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.33</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Doubront"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Doubront</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.63]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.63</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"11.2 ' 6"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">11.2 ' 6</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.83]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.83</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Norris"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Norris</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.86]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.86</td><td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"23.1 ' 10"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">23.1 ' 10</td><td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.67]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.67</td><td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Total"]" style="border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Total</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.86]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.86</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,8.81]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8.81</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"23.1 ' 10"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">23.1 ' 10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"33.66 ' 30"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">33.66 ' 30</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.67]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.67</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.81]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.81</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
And finally, the total for all starters:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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--><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"All Starters"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">All Starters</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.27]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.79]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.79</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"215.1 ' 126"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">215.1 ' 126</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"337.33 ' 142"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">337.33 ' 142</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.38]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.38</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.25]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.25</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Now, even in the totals it's striking. Over a run and a half down in Starters ERA, almost a full inning better in IP per start. But if you filter out the failure to thrive threesome in Sanchez's spot (7 starts) along with Norris (just to be fair), then the ERA swing is a fat 2.16 down, and the IP per start gets even better. To put these in some context, here's a list of AL teams ranked by starter's ERA on the season. Obviously the comparison is imperfect, since they are not split the same way the Jays' numbers are, but I'm not trying to prove where they rank since May 18, just giving you an idea where these numbers would rank if they'd been doing this all year.<br />
<br />
Oakland - 3.00<br />
TB - 3.42<br />
LA - 3.56<br />
Seattle - 3.80<br />
Minnesota - 3.83<br />
Houston - 3.97<br />
Chicago - 4.00<br />
Cleveland - 4.12<br />
Baltimore - 4.22<br />
NY - 4.22<br />
Texas - 4.26<br />
KC - 4.33<br />
Toronto - 4.35<br />
Detroit - 4.52<br />
Boston - 4.84<br />
<br />
So they are ranked 13th out of 15 right now, but if they'd done all year what they've done in the past 54 games, they would rank 4th - and if you take just the front five guys over that span they have the second best ERA on the list. Pretty remarkable, yes? One more tidbit on the starters. If you take the moment when their ERA peaked and they started trending downward, you of course come up with different dates for each of the main 5 guys, but it's noticeable how close they are (relative to the 5 day turn through the rotation) to that May 18 AEP.<br />
On May 12 Buehrle peaked at 5.54, he's totaled 2.30 since (less if you factor in his shutting down Oakland tonight but I didn't).<br />
Hutchison peaked on May 3 at 7.47, since then it's been 4.21<br />
Dickey peaked at 5.77 on May 26, since it's been 3.49<br />
Estrada doesn't fit well since his ERA was never again close to what it was after his first start on May 5, it's trended downward with a steady pacesince.<br />
And Sanchez splits exactly with the AEP.<br />
<br />
<br />
Sane treatment on the bullpen. This time it divides neatly into two groups again, those with 15+ IP (as relievers) who just so happen to all have pitched on both sides of the AEP, and those with less who only pitched on one side of the line. Noticeably, the first group represents the current seven pitchers in the bullpen, plus Todd Redmond who's at the fulcrum of this analysis. The one exception to my methods here is that I failed to distinguish Redmond's start from his relief work, but by the time I realized what I'd done all the charts were finished and I was well into this commentary, and damned if I'm going to go back and adjust all those figures. Just know that the pre-AEP starters figures, collectively, will go up just a bit more, and the pre-AEP bullpen figure for Redmond will too (I know it's weird but Redmond's first two bullpen appearances were so bad that a bad start still pulled it down some, meanwhile the collective bullpen figure in the "before" column will get just a bit better.<br />
<br />
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--><br /><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid #ccc; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; table-layout: fixed;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Name"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Name</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER After</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Osuna"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Osuna</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,0.86]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">0.86</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.43]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.43</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"21 ' 2"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">21 ' 2</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"21 ' 8"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">21 ' 8</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Schultz"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Schultz</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,1.85]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">1.85</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"24.1 ' 5"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">24.1 ' 5</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hendricks"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hendricks</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.63]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.63</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2.49]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2.49</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"17.1 ' 7"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">17.1 ' 7</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"21.2 ' 6"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">21.2 ' 6</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Cecil"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Cecil</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.46]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.46</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,5.29]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5.29</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"13 ' 5"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">13 ' 5</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"17 ' 10"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">17 ' 10</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Loup"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Loup</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.28]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.28</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.12]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.12</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"14.1 ' 10"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">14.1 ' 10</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"19.2 ' 9"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">19.2 ' 9</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Delebar"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Delebar</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,1.8]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">1.8</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"5 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">5 ' 1</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"19 ' 9"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">19 ' 9</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Tepera"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Tepera</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2.19]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2.19</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"6.1 ' 3"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">6.1 ' 3</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"12.1 ' 3"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">12.1 ' 3</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Redmond"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Redmond</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,11.88]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">11.88</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,2.35]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2.35</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"8.1 ' 11"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">8.1 ' 11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"8 ' 2"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">8 ' 2</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"15+ IP"]" style="border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">15+ IP</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.11]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.11</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.27]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.27</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"85.1 ' 39"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">85.1 ' 39</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"143 ' 52"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">143 ' 52</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Notice that Osuna actually went up, as did Cecil and Delebar the collective total is still striking. Almost two full runs difference. Speaking of Cecil and Delebar, the latter's second section ERA was a sterling 1.81 until July got here, three recent rough outings ballooned it and puts him on the bubble as a candidate to farm out when Sanchez is activated. Cecil has an even more interesting, to me, story. For one week, June 15-21, he fell apart, giving up 8 ER in 2.1 IP over 3 appearances. Without those his ERA in the second column would be 1.23 and lest we leave him out, if Aaron Loup had called in sick on June 20, his second column figure would be 2.84 so...not going to guess what's up with Delebar because the blow-up is recent, but these guys are not as bad as their results, and that's before you add in Sanchez. <br />
<br />
Unlike with the starters, the short-term guys really don't bust up that trend.<br />
<br />
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<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Name"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Name</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"ERA After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">ERA After</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER Before"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER Before</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"IP ' ER After"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">IP ' ER After</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Francis"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Francis</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6.75]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.75</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"12 ' 9"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">12 ' 9</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Castro"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Castro</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.38]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.38</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"12.1 ' 6"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">12.1 ' 6</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Estrada"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Estrada</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,0.84]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">0.84</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"10.2 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">10.2 ' 1</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Hynes"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Hynes</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,6]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6.00</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"3 ' 2"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">3 ' 2</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Albers"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Albers</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.38]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.38</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"2.2 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">2.2 ' 1</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Jenkins"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Jenkins</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.5]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.50</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"2 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">2 ' 1</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Coke"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Coke</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.38]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.38</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"2.2 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">2.2 ' 1</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Doubront"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Doubront</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.86]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.86</td><td><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"2.1 ' 1"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">2.1 ' 1</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Rasmussen"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Rasmussen</td><td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,0]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">0.00</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2," "]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"1 ' 0"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">1 ' 0</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"others >"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">others ></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.22]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.22</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.00</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"42.2 ' 20"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">42.2 ' 20</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"6 ' 2"]" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">6 ' 2</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The thing that jumps out at you here is the IP totals. Over 1 IP per team by a shuttle pitcher in the first set of games, less than 7 IP in 54 games since. That's called stabilizing, folks, and it shows up in the results. Almost a ran and a quarter lower in collective ERA in this group. Here's the bullpen totals:<br />
<br />
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<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Bullpen >"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Bullpen ></td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.15]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.15</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.26]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.26</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"128 ' 59"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">128 ' 59</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"149 ' 54"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">149 ' 54</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Almost two full runs better, and not surprising given what the starters did, 3.2 bullpen innings per game in the first split, 2.76 in the second. Those ERAs look good compared to the league too. The collective bullpen ERA in the last 54 games, if it were for the season, would land the Blue Jays 5th, just ahead of the Yankees.<br />
<br />
Finally then, the totals for the whole team, before and after:<br />
<br />
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<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"Total > "]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">Total > </td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,4.85]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4.85</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,3,null,3.63]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3.63</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"343.1 ' 185"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">343.1 ' 185</td><td data-sheets-value="[null,2,"486.1 ' 196"]" style="padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">486.1 ' 196</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
How does that play against the league? That 3.63 nestles between Baltimore (3.73) and Tampa Bay (3.59) for 6th in the AL and for love of 1/10th of a run, tonight's effort by Buehrle might have put them in second place (#1 is Oakland at 3.35 followed by the Angels at 3.52). The major point of all this is when you hear broadcasters or journalists say "the Jays have some bad pitching" - they really don't. The HAD some bad pitching, over the first six weeks of the season. Since then they've had perfectly reasonable pitching on the whole. <br />
<br />
How then to reconcile this with Wilner's description of how the bullpen has somehow managed to lose games at a higher rate than they should have? If you haven't read it, go do so for context, but the basic idea is that they pitched really well in low leverage outing but sucked in high leverage situations. Wilner reports accurately that the Jays lead the majors with 15 blown saves, so let's start there. But that will have to wait until next time, because sorting that out pre- and post-AEP is too big a chore to begin at 3 AM.<br />
<br />
<u>Addindum</u><br />
<br />
After another long session with Baseball Reference while listening to the Jays and A's I'm prepared to say a little something about Wilner's reporting on how much trouble the Blue Jays bullpen has had in high leverage situations. I didn't bother to try and re-create his reporting or be more clever than BR in terms of what qualifies as high-leverage. Rather I just wanted to see it for myself and I needed some sort of measure to quantify what I'd seen. So what I decided was to look at every situation in which a Toronto reliever pitched when the score was within 1 run either way (or tied of course) and how these turned out. I'm not entirely comfortable with the method because if, for example, three pitchers throw 3 innings of relief while tied and the third one give up a homer, the first two actually did their job. But this is more about collective results and the finer the detail, the longer it would take me to parse out.<br />
ETA: Tonight's extra inning loss is a good example. It was both a success and a failure. Osuna gave up the game winner in a tie game, however,4 relievers combined to throw 3 shutout innings while the team was down a run, or tied. The reports will say the bullpen blew the game, but that won't do justice to the good work they did to stay close. That's where those stats Wilner cited work better.<br />
<br />
So what I found was that in 34 games so far, such a situation occurred. and the Blue Jays only won 11 of those. In 10 of those games, the bullpen did it's job and four times the Jays lost anyway (situations where they were 1 run down), while 24 times they failed, but in five of those the hitters bailed them out. That's just awful and honestly, it defies reason given the overall quality of the players involved. In reference to my AEP, 12 of these cases occurred during that first 40 games and the bullpen failed in nine of those. Six of those nine were at least partially the fault of Castro or Francis but that's all that can be taken as a "positive" from this period.<br />
<br />
Since the AEP, the success/failure record is 7-15 which is some better but still not good, but to introduce another AEP, since June 1 (the win streak started the next day) it's been 6-8 which is more reasonable. Honestly, I'm not really sure what would be considered an acceptable rate in a profile like this so I'm just defaulting mentally to .500 as a point of reference - which means over the last seven weeks they were only one game below where you might reasonably ask them to be.Still, on the season, if you expected a .500 record that would mean that, setting aside the 4 games they were already behind, and the 5 the won anyway, they might have won 6 or 7 more games than they have. If you do the same but disregard the games before the AEP, they might have won 3-4 more since then than they have (again, disregarding the Oakland ongoing series). Four more wins and they would be a game and a half behind the Yankees right now.<br />
<br />
Another remarkable aspect of all this: Who among the relievers is considered by everyone to be the single most reliable reliever we have? Osuna right? Yet Osuna has been involved in more of those 24 failures - eight - than any other member of the 'pen (and also involved in six of the successes). Cecil is next with six (4 of the successes), Loup five (4), and Castro four (1)...and on the other side, Delebar was involved in only one of the failures, but in four of the successes. Which brings me to the one big take-away from all this drudgery: You can't just assume that adding any given pitcher will fix the problem because it's a problem that really shouldn't even exist. If your best reliever is involved in more failures than anyone else, and you trust him - as you should! - then how can you say of any pitcher you might add that such events won't happen to him?<br />
<br />
This all strikes me as akin to the annual examination of records in 1 run games. You can certainly wise it were better, if it's bad - but if it's bad that doesn't necessarily prove you're doing anything wrong. All you can really do is hope the scales eventually balance.<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-6746683613565465652015-07-20T03:03:00.000-04:002015-07-20T03:03:09.195-04:00Well, Sanchez is ...huh?So, with news breaking this afternoon that Aaron Sanchez will be returning from the DL in a relief role, it's an obvious motivation to speculate like mad. And being as it's me were talking about, I never say in 500 words what I can say in 3,000 so...<br />
<br />
First off, Evan noted at <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/aaron-sanchez-bullpen-gibbons/">BlueJaysPlus</a>, there's really only three basic potential explanations, but I want to dig a bit into the nuances of this and maybe add a 4th by the time I'm done. Kinda.<br /><br />His first possibility is that the Jays are sold on Felix Doubront. Pretty much no one thinks this is the case, but there's an alternate version of this possibility that I'll get back to. His second possibility is that the Blue Jays have lost confidence in Sanchez as a starter. Again, this is inconceivable so there's no point in lingering long over it right this second. Third, and the assumption that's on everyone's mind, is that there's a trade coming. But don't assume that means it's coming any minute even if it is.<br />
<br />
Sanchez will throw again for Buffalo on Tuesday, and , they say, be called up "late in the week" (safe money would be on Friday for the opening of the Seattle series. Meanwhile, the Jays spurned the chance to slid the 5th starter slot back by using the off day tomorrow, so Wednesday at Oakland rather than Saturday at Seattle. In so doing Doubront's next turn would fall on next Monday - also an off day - and who knows if they would hold the pattern and refuse to skip him. That might depend on Wednesday. Thing is, that next Monday is the 27th, just four days before the deadline. So by staying with Dourbront for now they are really only committing to one more start, against a losing team in a pitcher friendly stadium and...one other thing I'll get back to.<br />
<br />
Now, as you might recall, if the Blue Jays decide not to keep Doubront in the majors, they will almost certainly lose him since he has no options left and won't make it through waivers. So if they cut bait now, unless they want to cram him into the 'pen they lose an asset, and he's certainly no guarantee to work out well in the bullpen. On top of that, there's not a lot of flexibility in the rest of the rotation. Buehrle and Dickey are absolute locks (the latter, despite my mockery, has been better than fine for over six weeks now) and Marco Estrada removed whatever doubt anyone may have had about his role by outpitching Chris Archer today. That leaves only Drew Hutchison, who's an ace at home and trash on the road. They may tinker with his turns to get him more home starts (I doubt it) but there's no indication he'll be off to Buffalo or the 'pen anytime soon. So there's that one spot to mess with.<br />
<br />
<br />
Now consider - let's say the Blue Jays do, in fact, swing a deal for a very-good-to-great SP, and you already put Doubront on waivers in order to let Sanchez start....one game. Maybe two. Then he's off to the 'pen anyway (because he addresses a real need there, as opposed to the net loss of demoting Hutch). That's not really how Alex Anthopoulos rolls. On the other hand, if Doubront starts and pitches well, he might help leverage a trade or be dealt in a smaller deal (don't scoff, look what we paid for Danny Valencia). If he blows up, well, just as easy to waive him 10 days later. If Sanchez got that start and is great, it's harder to ask him to move to the 'pen, if he's rocked, it hurts his confidence which now, based on the run up to his injury, has to be high. Finally, if not trade can be finalized, the gap is short enough they can always ditch Felix on August 1 and give the job back to Sanchez without much issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
Looking ahead to Sanchez in the bullpen, Gibby said not to expect him in high leverage situations right away (and if you want to keep him available to go back to the rotation, what beter way than a few 2-3 inning outings over the next couple of weeks?) but you know that's the plan. Sanchez circa 2014 setting up Osuna has a distinct whiff of Ward/Henke from where I sit. Throw in Bo, Tepera (who deserves your respect!) and Hendricks in the 6th/7th and you can be selective with Cecil and Loup (who are both better than you think). Not to disrespect Delebar (and I have a hunch the will stockpile Tepera in Buffalo rather than demote Delebar - or go with 8 - when Sanchez is activated) who's no car crash by any means. People can look at whole season stats and moan all they want, that's already a solid 'pen (worrisome only in that there are 3-4 key guys doing it at the major league level for the first time) and a damned respectable one when you add Sanchez. Whatever might be said of that rotation spot, Sanchez will help the 'pen as much as any potential acquisition not named Chapman.<br /><br />But here's the thing niggling my brain, and maybe it's just because I've been lusting after this guy as a trade target, but there's an interesting confluence of events here.As you know the Jays visit Oakland starting on Tuesday. Who's starting for the A's on Thursday but one Scott Kazmir. Trade candidate. <br />
Very. Desirable. Trade Candidate.<br />
<br />
In my feeble recollection, I'm not aware of very many high profile players dealt just in time to face the team that just traded them. But what if, when the Jays flew home from the coast, Kazmir was on the plane? Or at least, what if Alex was working on making that happen knowing the A's wouldn't close a deal before Friday? Because these are the A's who have used Jesse Chavez as a pretty important SP for a few years now...so what if Alex wants to let Oakland get a first hand look at what Doubront can do in anticipation of offering him in the deal as a non-rookie option to slot into Kazmir's spot? Don't get me wrong, Felix would have only a small marginal value in the deal but if he makes it easier at all that's a plus. Heck, apart from persuing Kazmir, if the Jays do have to try and squeeze value out of FD after a trade for whomever, Oakland is just the sort of team that might be interested so showcase him. <br />
<br />
So I can definitely see an angle here, as much as it worries me Sanchez will be so good that the team will get fuzzy-headed and want to keep him in the 'pen long term. And speaking of the long term, consider this - if the Blue Jays do add a rental starter, potentially 4 out of 5 members of their rotation in October (shaddap) will be pending free agents. Then follows a winter of hand-wringing about the Blue Jays need to add veteran leadership or whatever, but I'm looking forward to the best 5 out of Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Norris, Hoffman, Hutchinson, and Boyd filling those slots. I'm not sure I want a lesser guy who brings only 10 years of experience tying up one of those spots. Unless maybe it was Kazmir. ;) Thought for the record, I'd absolutely put a QO on Buehrle and wouldn't be unhappy if he accepted it. Okay, got it. Rambling now. Anyway, in less than 2 weeks we'll know something.<br />
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<br /><br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-39723340576009432412015-07-15T04:59:00.001-04:002015-08-06T22:52:58.423-04:00Monthly Prospect Progress and Stuff (3/5)I know what you are thinking - didn't you just write far too many words about prospects? Yes, my last entry was indeed a farm related post (mostly) but that was a ranking reflecting adjustments to the off-season list based on over half a season of work in 2015. The monthly isn't so much about ranking but taking note of who's hot, or not, that deserves a mention as well as assorted player movement and such like.<br />
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Speaking of - various reports on Tuesday confirmed that, as predicted last week, <b>Jeff Hoffman</b> is moving up to AA and will start for the Fisher Cats on Friday. More on that in a bit. Hoffman is, of course, all tangled up in trade speculation as the deadline approaches in just over two weeks. The debate rages about the balance between giving up the long-term return on blue chip prospects against the games - and potential playoff games - that can be won by acquiring a premium talent with said prospects. On one hand, it's certain the Blue Jays have to make SOME move this month, and more than just a minor deal for a Danny Valencia-type. It boggles the mind how the fan base might react if they stand pat or, worse, fold their tent. But at the same time, every start by RA Dickey that's not ace-level serves as a cautionary tale about what they might have had in Noah Syndergaard. A Sportsnet poll question asked whether you'd give up Jeff Hoffman for Johnny Cueto (who's set to be a free agent at the end of the season. My answer is that unless I intend to get him under contract before he ever hits the market (and with the Jays' 5-Year limit that's not even a pipe-dream) then no, I don't. Flags fly forever but Cueto alone, as good as he is, doesn't guarantee a flag. Not Norris either though he has more potential to not pan out. <br />
<br />
I know it takes value to get value so here's my list of available players with, in my opinion, top trade appeal.<br />
Sean Reid-Foley<br />
Miguel Castro<br />
Richard Ureana<br />
Max Pentacost (value down, can't be centerpiece at this point)<br />
Matt Smoral (ditto, and for the same reason)<br />
Matt Boyd<br />
Alberto Tirado<br />
Clint Hollon<br />
Dawel Lugo (stats aren't much, scouts really like the potential though)<br />
Jario Labourt (impressed on the big stage Sunday)<br />
<br />
Not all of these guys are centerpiece types of course, but could, for example, Reid-Foley, Lugo and Labourt get you Matt Latos? Yeah, and it might be an overpay, maybe get them to kick in former Jays prospect Sam Dyson or go for closer AJ Ramos while you're at it. Alex Anthopoulos insisted rental players with no control after this season were his last option, but that's what dominates the SP market and it will take some of his best magic to go get a top-end SP with control. It might also mean persuading ownership to take on Cole Hamel's contract or whatever part of it the Phillies will not carry (and assuming you can convince him to waive his NTC) and even if you can do that, you get even more complex negotiations depending on the amount of cash changing hands.<br />
<br />
Beyond Hamels, there's Tyson Ross in San Diego (yes please!) or maybe Andrew Cashner aaaand...who? Maybe Mike Fiers, but with 4 years control he shouldn't be on the market. Interestingly, Cashner has an xFIP of 3.70 and our own Drew Hutchinson has an xFIP of 3.78 - if we could get the on field results to match that figure in the second half it would make a big ol' difference. And yes, as I mentioned last week, if someone like the Reds looked at that figure and decided it represented the true Drew and accounted him that trade value, yes, I'd put him in the deal because of all our young pitching assets, he's burned the most control and has the lowest ceiling.<br />
<br />
<br />
Now, about those minor leagues...<br />
<br />
There's not a lot of news out of Buffalo in terms of prospecting. The continued tease that is D<b>aniel Norris </b>continues, for the second time he's been one-more-good-start from getting the call and had the ball bounce away from him. Alex defended his July 1 outing, pointing out the weather led to a lot of bad breaks - but Sunday's game was ugly ever how you parse it. On the offensive side, 3B/1B <b>Matt Hague</b> continues to pound on the door to a crowded room, but there's also <b>Sean Ochinko</b>. The back-up catcher, in 83 AB over 23 GP between May 19 and July 8 hit .386 with a .961 OPS. He'd be starting if the Jays didn't need Josh Thole's bat to stay active (as if...)<br />
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In New Hampshire, it's all about <b>Dalton Pompey</b> until the Blue Jays decide he's safe to move up. I'm wondering how much more Ezequiel Carrera they can deal with myself. Also have to take notice of reliever Danny Barnes who's proven himself worthy of promotion if they can find room among the old-timers.<br />
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Looking at Dunedin there's the remarkable <b>Alford </b>and<b> Tellez </b>show though it's only 17 games, there's no reason to think either is a SS illusion in terms of talent. The other story offensively is that <b>Mitch Nay</b>, who'd begun to make a few folks invoke then name "Ahrens" finally woke up on June 25 and has been mostly on fire since. He's hit .393 over those 61 at bats - and drawn 7 walks - while running up a .981 OPS, but he didn't hit a single homer over that hot stretch and that's still something the team is looking for. There's not to much on the pitching side to note that hasn't already been said in the previous column, but I'll tip my metaphorical cap to unheralded to<b> Jeremy Gebryszwski</b> who's put up an ERA of 2.48 over his last five appearances with 23 K's against 4 walks in 29 innings. Fact is, the 2011 2nd round pick has only had 2 truly bad starts this year, without those his ERA is 2.80 with good supporting numbers. He's probably as good as most of the guys who've gotten starts in New Hampshire. <br />
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In the <span style="color: blue;">Lansing</span> rotation, the top remaining performer is <b>Shane Dawson</b> who won't be back until the men's baseball team at the Pan-Am games wraps up, almost certainly on July 19. He stands as the most obvious candidate to be promoted to Dunedin to take over Jeff Hoffman's vacated slot. Next in line is <b>Jesus Tinoco</b>, who's quietly avoided the control issues that hit some of the other young Latin players in the system when they got to full season ball. If there's a guy that a lot of folks are sleeping on on the full season teams, it's Tinoco. Still, the Jays may prefer to move him a bit slower and wait a few more weeks to move him up. He's only 20. There are 3 or 4 relievers worthy of promotion here too. On offense, it's all about <b>Ryan McBroom</b> but with Tellez and Dean both sucking up AB in Dunedin, there's nowhere for him to go.<br />
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In <span style="color: blue;">Vancouver</span>, if the chain reaction effect takes Dawson to Dunedin the next link in the chain is <b>Clinton Hollon</b> who's shown himself capable of stepping up to Lansing. I'd be shocked if he wasn't there before August (unless he's part of a trade). 2015 draftee <b>Jon Harris</b> will likely move too at some point but probably not for another month or so. Other than those two, and recovering <b>Ryan Borucki</b>, there's not much to talk about at this level. Oh, and recently drafted RP<b> Travis Bergen</b> is off to a hot start.<br />
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Continuing the theme of chain-reaction promotions, my pick for <span style="color: blue;">Bluefield</span> is <b>Juliandry Higuera</b>. He's been by far the best pitcher for the Appy League team and in the discussion for best in the league. CF <b>Rodrigo Orzoco</b> is hitting well enough to get noticed too, head and shoulders betterthan the other full-time guys.<br />
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Finally in the <span style="color: blue;">GCL</span>, the last link in the chain is the 2015 draftee that has opened everyone's eyes,<b> Jose Espada</b>. If my chain-promotion theory is right he's the clear choice to move up. Offensively, 33rd rounder <b>Kalik May</b> is lapping the field but recently signed steal <b>Reggie Pruitt</b> hasn't missed a beat and either or both are worthy of consideration to move up.I expect both in Bluefield in short order.<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-77961117766843022722015-07-10T03:46:00.000-04:002015-07-10T23:05:30.503-04:00Mid-Season(ish) Prospect Ranking & StuffSo. Back to .500 - le sigh. They will be more than a little fortunate to not fall below by the time the sun sets on Sunday. <br />
Aaaaaanyway...<br />
<br />
The stuff I mentioned in the title being some interesting correlation of pitching news this week. Both <b>Daniel Norris</b> and<b> Jeff Hoffman</b> pitched on Tuesday night and pitched well, more on both of them when I get to the list.<b> Felix Dourbront</b> pitched well for the Jays, but we've seen the "kick-ass in your first game" phenomena twice before so we need to see what he does in KC on Sunday to begin to get a read. Meanwhile,<b> Alex Sanchez</b> made his first rehab outing in the GCL hours before those other games and threw 2 innings. Alex Anthopoulos was on the radio the next day and reported no difficulties. He said Alex would pitch again on three days rest and then go on a regular starter's 5th day rotation. While some may speculate that he might not need a long re-hab, I'm sure he'll get one and here's why. <br />
<br />
There's only one start left in his turn before the break which obviously he's not going to make, and after that the team doesn't absolutely have to have a fifth starter until July 25 which is right at the end of the 20 days he's allowed to stay on re-hab assignment. He'll have 4 starts, if all goes well, under his belt by then but that day wouldn't fall on his turn. Which means he can either go on the 26th at Seattle, bumping Estrada (at least temporarily) or he can skip the long plane ride - which only makes sense given the nature of his injury - and start on the 28th in Philadelphia. The answer seems obvious. Technically it might be a day or two after that depending on hos the team wants to sort out the rest schedule for the other four but you get the idea. Of course, other roster machinations flow from this too. No later than that point they'll need a read on Doubront who'll surely be lost if they try to demote him. The trade picture will be much clearer, the endurance of <b>Marco Estrada</b> vs. his value in the 'pen vs. the progress of<b> Daniel Norris</b> will have more data. Plus two of Hutchinson's next three are on the road which...yeah...about that.<br />
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<b>Drew Hutchinson</b> has insane splits this year in just about every way you can split stats and one of those is that he's aces at home, and an abomination on the road. There is, in my opinion, a very real possibility that if he doesn't pitch in a most excellent fashion, consistently, and quick, he could find himself in Buffalo (or traded if anyone will count him as valuable) before July is done. And despite the respectable FIP/xFIP numbers (he leads Blue Jays starters in both), it would be hard to object.<br />
(I wrote that in my first draft before Wednesday's start
against the punchless White Sox and...no progress on the bottom line,
though the rain contributed to a couple of runs that might not otherwise
have scored so maybe he gets a mulligan from the F.O.)<br />
<br />
The real problem with the rotation is Dickey but whatchagonnado? (I'm aware he did well against the Sox but the peripheral trend is very troubling as others have noted)<br />
<br />
Anyway, on to the rankings.<br />
<br />
There is more witchcraft that science to someone like me, who is neither a trained scout nor at the games, ranking prospects in the best of times. I base my lists on what I read elsewhere and hold the conceit that possibly the way that I integrate that stream of info will produce something that maybe passes along to you something you didn't already know from having read all the same sources yourself - along with an ego-stroking opinion of my own...opinions. But another big part of that sauce is the stats and scouting the minors via stats can be a fool's errand because you don't know whether the team has a player purposely working on some task rather than striving for the best statistical bottom line. Worse, the short-season teams have only been playing for 3 weeks or less.Which means the potential for sample-size error is too great to even do that (not that I don't occasionally overlook that principle). In short, I do this mostly because I like making lists and I like it when on occasion I'm the first one you heard pimping a particular guy, not to be authoritative.<br />
<br />
The list is 30 names, with sporadic commentary, and a handful of names to watch at the end.<br />
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1. <b>Jeff Hoffman</b> (RHP) - with all due respect to #2, this is the guy who was under consideration for 1:1 with how he'd recover his stuff and I'm satisfied that answer is positive. I'm expecting that after Sunday's game, he's likely done in Dunedin. The story all along has been that he'd move fairly quickly and the mid-season break seems a natural time to take the next step.<br />
2. <b>Daniel Norris</b> (LHP) - Had possibly his best AAA game this year on Tuesday, and has been under control more often than not for 7 starts now. Will surely get at least two more turns and needs to keep his focus while he waits for roster maneuverings to play out over the rest of the month.<br />
3. <b>Dalton Pompey</b> (CF) - Killing it in AA, at some point he'll get kicked back to Buffalo for another test there. With Pillar's recent success the Jays won't feel rushed, unless Saunders has another setback and which...has anyone heard anything new on him? Maybe I assume too much.<br />
4. <b>Anthony Alford</b> (CF) - seemingly the more he's challenged, the better he gets. At this point I wouldn't even be mildly shocked if he were a September call up next year. If not before.<br />
5. <b>Vlad Guerrero, Jr</b> (OF) - Maybe I'm running high on him here, particularly given he lacks some of his dad's defensive promise, but I'm giddy on him.<br />
6. <b>Miguel Castro</b> (RHP) - there's maybe a little hiccup at Buffalo for some reason, possibly a self-imposed pressure thing, possibly it's a BABiP thing I'm unaware of, but there's still so much to love here. I'm rooting for him to do well either to be a key component of the upcoming trade, or to show enough in the major league 'pen to give the Jays the option to work Osuna as a rotation candidate next Spring.<br />
7. <b>Sean Reid-Foley </b>(RHP) - Another guy who's become a serious potential trade chip. He's still a bit wild, but for a 19 year old high school pitcher drafted last June, it's hard to ask for more progress. If he's still in the system on August 1, look for the Jays to slow him down until he refines his walk rate a bit.<br />
8. <b>Max Pentecost</b> (C) - been a while since we had a report but barring a setback, he should be close to getting back into real games.<br />
9.<b> Richard Urena</b> (SS) - Unexpected power surge in Lansing joined a solid average and sterling defense, but the BB/K ratio shows there's still work to do. Promotion to Dunedin as much about Lugo's struggles needing relief as Urena forcing their hand. Still, he's in the Toip 10 for a reason.<br />
10.<b> Jon Harris</b> (RHP) - he's no Hoffman but he was a steal where he was drafted and he was described as a polished guy who'd move fast.<br />
11.<b> Rowdy Tellez </b>(1B) - I've been the high one on this guy from day one (and no it has almost nothing to do with his being named "Rowdy"). He was having trouble getting his doubles over the fence over his last month in Lansing but the Jays saw reason to promote him and he's proven that wise so far.<br />
12. <b>DJ Davis</b> (CF) - OTOH, I punished him hard for his abysmal 2014 but he's turned it around nicely this year. He still needs a lot more polish but you can at least see what the Jays were thinking now.<br />
13. <b>Matt Smoral </b>(LHP) - clinging to this spot more for lack of others blowing by him than anything. In danger of having injuries knock him out of the top 20. Needs to get, and stay, on the field.<br />
14.<b> Matt Boyd</b> (LHP) - I had him at 28 coming into the season, a noticeable and unexpected uptick in velocity, and the results that followed, shoved him towards the top. Viable trade candidate. If he handles AAA as he did AA, might climb another couple of spots by season's end.<br />
15.<b> Alberto Tirado</b> (RHP) - wilder, still, than you'd like, particularly since the team resolved to let him pitch in relief all year in order to make some progress. Hard to hit stuff, but needs fewer walks.<br />
16. <b>Clint Hollon</b> (RHP) - like Hoffman, recovering from TJS, he started the year with Vancouver's season opener and has been well ahead of league hitters. My guess is that when Hoffman moves up and another Lansing starter goes to Dunedin (there are two solid candidates) that Hollon is Lansing bound after his start upcoming on Monday.<br />
17. <b>Dawel Lugo </b>(SS) - He wasn't an accomplished hitter in Lansing last year, but pressure from Urena and the team's apparent impression with his tools pushed him up to Dunedin to start this season. That didn't work out and he pretty completely failed the challenge. Scouts still report the potential is there but the team is clearly going to have to go a lot slower with him.<br />
18. <b>Jario Labourt</b> (LHP) - Control issues continue to plague the big lefty. The Jays thought he could handle Dunedin coming out of Spring but the hits are up, the strikeouts are down and the walks are intolerably high. in all but 2 of his first 12 games it appeared he had made a step forward on that issue, but over his last 5 starts the wheels really came off. First the walks went back up and then, while he corralled that he started getting hit around. He's said to be a hard worker and good student so possibly he can find the handle again soon. But he'll need some consistency.<br />
19. <b>Mitch Nay</b> (3B) - he's trying the patience of a lot of people at this point. Jays people said earlier in the year that they had him working on some things and they were confident his power would come. Well it ain't came yet. He homered in back-to-back games May 17-18, and only 2 times since. He's only just not got his batting average to .250 for the first time this year, and it took a torrid 15 for 31 streak over his last eight games to do that.<br />
20. <b>Lane Thomas</b> (2B) - can field several positions, they are using him exclusively at 2B so far, and while he's off to a slow start the SS factor keeps me from worrying.<br />
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21. <b>Jesus Tinoco</b> (RHP) - Doing all you'd want a 20 year old Latin pitcher to do in A ball. On his way up.<br />
22. <b>Dwight Smith, Jr.</b> (LF) - really very ordinary season and he didn't have a big margin with me.<br />
23. <b>Matt Dean</b> (1B) - Like Nay, he's shown less power than he needs to if he's o be highly regarded.<br />
24.<b> Brady Singer</b> (RHP) - the second player drafted by the Jays in 2015 remains unsigned, though everyone says he will.<br />
25. <b>Nick Wells </b>(LHP) - 3rd round pick from 2014, still in short-season ball.<br />
26. <b>Connor Greene</b> (RHP) - one of the "punt" picks in 2013, just before Kendell Graveman, recently earned a mid-season promotion to Dunedin. <br />
27. <b>Justin Maese </b>(RHP) - this years 3rd rounder, just assigned to the GCL last week.<br />
28. <b>Carl Wise</b> (3B) - waited on his Visa at Bluefield before moving up to the VanCans. Shows they consider the 4th rounder from this year fairly polished.<br />
29. <b>Shane Dawson</b> (LHP) - Owned the Midwest league for much of this year, worthy of promotion but something's going on - he missed time without public explanation lately.[Edit: Per Mike Wilner, Jeff Francis in Buffalo was placed on the "Temporarily Inactive List" in order to play for Team Canada - one may easily assume that's what is going on with Dawson]<br />
30. <b>Roemon Fields</b> (CF) - Tim Raines says he's the best fielding and running CF in the system. He's probably always going to be a fringy hitter but he impressed them enough in Dunedin to get the promotion to AA when Alford moved up to High-A. In a tiny sample he's off to a hot start with the bat at his new level.<br />
<br />
Here are some other names from further down my list that I'm keeping a particular eye on.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Ryan Broucki</b> and<b> Tom Robson</b>, two SP coming off injury who are considered legitimate prospects<br />
<b>Danny Jansen</b>, catcher, was considered one to watch out of spring, before he started slow and then got hurt - no idea on the timetable for a return. <br />
<b>John Stilson</b> - like Smoral, he needs to stay healthy, and maybe has even less chance of doing so.<br />
<b>Reggie Pruitt </b>- the draftee they supposedly couldn't sign and did<br />
<b>Danny Barnes</b> - you don't usually pay too much attention to effective minor league relievers but I have a hunch about this guy.<br />
<b>Juliandry Higurea</b> - not considered a big win when he was signed as an IFA but in the early going at Bluefield he's been excellent, and was so before that in the DSL. Plus, I have it in my head he's Teddy Higuera's kid (I can't confirm that - need to get JSG to ask the Blefield broadcaster about that sometime. Teddy was a favorite of mine back in the day.<br />
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Why do these things always get so LONG? At least that explains why it takes me three days to finish one. <br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-24377698392989957472015-07-02T00:55:00.002-04:002015-07-02T00:59:34.782-04:00Notes of InterestWhile I prepare to update my top prospect list at mid-season (technically not mid-season for the prospects - that was a couple of weeks ago - but I tend to wait until after the July 2 international signing date passes) hopefully this weekend, and the 3/5 Farm Report (before the ASB) there are some news and notes items I wanted to throw out, some of them particularly since a couple of the bloggers who usually provide regular updates are gallivanting around Europe somewhere.<br />
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Item: Shi Davidi <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/internal-options-can-help-clear-picture-for-blue-jays/">reports</a> AA went to Buffalo to watch <b>Daniel Norris</b> tonight, given that the lefty is under consideration for a spot start in Chicago on July 8. Turns out Norris didn't (likely) impress the boss, giving up six runs, four earned, in 7 IP - more tellingly, AA commented to the press that when Norris was on, he'd strike out a batter an inning and not work so hard to paint corners and get ground balls - even if it meant walking some. Apparently no one told Norris. He walked only 2, which is excellent for him...but only struck out one. No word on what Alex thought of what he saw yet, often the stat line doesn't tell the story. Norris may yet get that call.<br />
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Item: in the same scrum AA spoke optimistically of the potential to get <b>Miguel Castro </b>back to the bigs.He's looked outstanding so far in Dunedin but in only two appearances. Shi implied (from AA or his own sources is uncertain) that Castro was "due for a promotion soon" to either AA or AAA. Alex suggested that adding internal reinforcements would allow him to focus trade efforts on the rotation.<br />
<br />
Item: speaking of said rotation, a update on a figure I've mentioned before. In their first 40 games (18-22, .450) the Blue Jays allowed 196 runs - 4.9 per game. In the 40 games since, they've allowed 145 - 3.625 per game. For comparison purposes, the second best pitching staff in the AL, the Tampa Bay Rays, have allowed 3.6 runs per game on the season. <br />
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Item: On Thursday we will learn, presumably, if we were informed correctly that <b>Vlad Guerrero Jr.</b> (i.e. VGJ) will become a member of the Jays organization, and whether they will be left with any money to sign anyone else (or, indeed, forfeit future opportunities). There's a reason I waited on that list. <br />
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Item: <b>Justin Smoak</b> might actually be pretty darn good. After today's two homer effort his slash lines are up to .261/.336/.51/.849 which, with all due respect, John Gibbons might want to reconsider the Navarro love-fest? Since coming off the DL Navarro is putting up an OPS of .653 - I'm just sayin' (love ya Gibby!)<br />
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Item: speaking of maybe being good,<b> Kevin Pillar</b> finishes June hitting .380/.394/.550/.944 which, yeah, it's just a month but it sure makes up for May (speaking of which, his bad month was actually a bad 18 games in 19 days. His current hot run actually started on May 27).<br />
<br />
Item: <b>Mark Buehrle</b>'s ERA for June - 1.67<br />
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Item: <b>Jeff Hoffman</b> goes again tomorrow for Dunedin coming off his best pro outing on Saturday (five shutout innings, 3 base-runners and six strikeouts). His turn comes up twice more after that before the AAA/AA All-Star break. I muse about the possibility (likelihood?) he'll get moved up to AA at that point.<br />
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Item: <b>Anthony Alford</b> and <b>Rowdy Tellez</b> - co-owners of the FSL (for a week).<br />
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Item: Remember after the draft I told you that CF <b>Reggie Pruitt </b>was the lower round pick to dream on - IF he signed which many predicted the Vandy-commit wouldn't? Yeah. He kinda DID! AA scores again, giving a guy some ranked among the top 200 potential picks (translating to a top 6-7 round guy) who was snagged in the 24th round a $500k bonus. His skill set is reminiscent of Anthony Gose (if perhaps not quite grading out as high) with speed being his best tool (rated as high as 70 by some scouts). He's said to have a swing that needs a lot of work and the extent to which they can successfully adjust it will say a lot about how he moves up the prospect chart. He'll start in the GCL or maybe Bluefield and prospect watchers shouldn't get down on him if he doesn't hit much this year. <br />
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Item: As of this writing, the Blue Jays stand tied for the second wild card spot, and 1 game out of first place in the AL East. Which is kinda awesome given the early pitching worries.The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-42075143083863696712015-06-22T00:43:00.003-04:002015-06-22T01:39:53.322-04:00Salient PointsA stream of points which I hope to be able to ultimately order into something like a sensible narrative-<br />
<br />
In today's game, the bullpen pitched 6.2 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 6 before Cecil entered the game. The Jays would have happily taken such a performance from any of their SP. This was a one-inning issue, not a "whole bullpen sucks!" issue;<br />
<br />
As of June 6, Brett Ceci, today's villain, l had a 2.65 ERA, had allowed runs in only 3 out
of 20 appearances, and multiple runs only once. Only twice in 20
appearances did runs charged to Cecil contribute to a loss.Since June 10
he's been a mess, but it's unlikely to be an unfixable issue. Not
irrelevant - he's given up runs in five of his last six outings, the
Jays won 3 of those 5;<br />
<br />
Yesterday's bad guy Aaron Loup's ERA from May 19 (<a href="http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-subject-at-hand.html">the pitching turned around, you will recall, after the May 18 Redmond start</a>) through June 19: 0.79 and threw 11.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 12 k and a single earned run. Four times this year he blew up real good, but before Saturday it had been a full month since the last one. His xFIP for the whole season is 2.94;<br />
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Is anyone dissatisfied with the work of Osuna, Hendricks, or Delebar? No? Good. Because you shouldn't be. You can add Tepera to that also, despite the mysterious demotion today, though he's been getting hardly any use, he's not been part of the problem. He had his only bad outing on May 18 (in a game the Jays won); <br />
<br />
That takes us through the 6 relievers with the most innings. Schultz has started out pretty good but the sample is too small yet.<br />
<br />
The Blue Jays have lost 12 games since May 18, 4 of those are on the SP (3 of those four the team scored 2 runs or less). Of the other 8, 3 were in the 7th, one in the 8th, 2 in the 9th, and 2 in extras. <br />
2 on Cecil, 2 Loup, and 2 Osuna, giving up their own runs, and two on inherited runners (one Delebar, one Osuna). So in the last month, Osuna - whom no one doubts, nor should - has let more get away than either Cecil or Loup.<br />
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Of the Jays relievers who've pitched in 2015 who were not on the roster at the start of play on today, June 21, the last time any of them pitched in a major league game was May 16. The collective ERA of the Jays bullpen this year is 3.56 (8th in the league). Take away the collective stats of the six players who haven't been here in over a month, and that falls to 2.88 - which would be 4th in the league. I realize that all teams have poor pitchers on the shuttle, but for one comparison, it's better than the collective ERA of the Yankees (4th best team bullpen ERA in the AL) 7 most used relievers. <br />
<br />
Point here being that since the pitching turned around, the six busiest Jays relievers have been fine, outside of Cecil's last 10 days which is most likely a blip. The thing is, you need at least 7 good ones and the plug-ins to not be awful. So the lesson from that is that they either they need to find another reliable guy for the middle innings, or they need a titular closer in order to push Cecil back into more targeted match-ups. If the report about K-Rod was accurate, and assuming he's available, that would be an ideal addition at the right price. Put another way, the bullpen isn't a disaster at all, though it could use a select acquisition.<br />
<br />
As for the starters, while their collective ERA for the season is 4.42, 14th in the AL - since May 18 (without Copeland) it's 3.47 which would rank 3rd. Again, I understand the nature of Arbitrary End Points and as flaky as they are, unless I apply the same AEP to the other teams, their value is further reduced...BUT it is also a valid principle that more recent data is better than older data. Clearly the rotation is thin, as Sanchez's injury exposed (barring the possibility that someone other than Copeland ends up being a competent 6th starter). But as long as the front five is healthy and pitching as they have for the most recent month+, they are certainly good enough to support the hitting.<br />
<br />
The takeaway then is that if - and it's a not insignificant "if" - the most recent data is the real talent level (and it's far more likely to be than the mess than was the first quarter-season) then the pitching staff is not BAD, just thin. The lesson from that, for the starters, is that they don't need a Scott Kazmir (check his road splits) or Aaron Harrang at a too-expensive price. They need to either add a true ace, like Cueto, or be confident that Doubront, Norris, Boyd etc can fill the need when called upon - or find someone who can.<br />
<br />
I suggest some deep breaths for the more panicky fans. <br />
<br />
*****<br />
Three players demoted today - not sure why Tepera was one of them - no word on the promotions byut Travis will surely be one. They can push back the open rotation spot to June 30 so they will likely recall a reliever there and then switch them out for the starter for that game. Figure the other guy will be a reliever too. Rasmussen deserves a shot, the other (temporary relief call-up) guy could be almost anyone that's on the 40 man roster.<br />
Who starts on June 30 should prove interesting. The reporters say the team speaks of Sanchez being back "in a few weeks" partly based on the assumed need for one or more rehab starts. The thing they aren't saying is that it's only 3 weeks until the ASB. It's safe then to speculate Sanchez won't be back until after, barring a wonderful report tomorrow. IF that's an accurate assumption, then there's at least 3 turns, beginning with that 6/30 start, for the unknown starter. There exists only three reasonable possibilities:<br />
<br />
1. Give Norris a spin. He hasn't earned it by his work in Buffalo but a 3 start trial will either motivate him to step up or to press. Which would be valuable information on sevberal levels;<br />
2. Go with Felix Doubront who's earned a look but who would need to be carried all season, traded, or lost on waiver claim when they were done with him. Such a valuable (presumably) insurance policy might be too valuable to lose for the marginal gain of three starts. Something to watch: While Doubront's next rotation turn is on Friday, that's going with 5 days rest because of an off-day. tomorrow. If the Jays flip he and Matt Boyd around, so that FD starts on Thursday, that would line Doubront up with the open major league turn and be a strong indication he was the choice;<br />
3. Alex pulls off a trade in the coming week for a starting pitcher that would slot in - and who can predict his trades?<br />
<br />
Also Dickey is due back tomorrow but if Travis is joining the team, it seems likely Kawasaki goes back to clear his spot.<br />
<br />
<br />
*****<br />
Also, if you somehow missed it - Anthony Alford just moved up to Dunedin.<br />
<br />
<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-45340610101203940772015-06-18T04:40:00.001-04:002015-06-18T04:40:24.885-04:00The Subject at HandSo the topic du'jour concerning the Blue Jays is, of course, pitching acquisitions, notably starting pitching. Hardly a day goes by without a fresh article <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/6/16/8785969/toronto-blue-jays-worst-rotation-baseball-ra-dickey">parsing stats,</a> some more relevantly than others, but (almost) all coming to the same conclusion: the Jays are obliged to go out and trade for a better starter than the ones they have. While I'm all for upgrades, there's one analysis I haven't seen (not that I am ANNNNNYthing like an analyst) and that's the split BR and AR (Before Redmond and After Redmond).<br />
<br />
If you recall, on May 18, in the 40th game of the season, the Blue Jays elected to push back the rotation an extra day and give Todd Redmond a spot start. Now, I don't pretend to have any insight into what that one extra day off did for them - I'm skeptical it was just a matter of rest. The last previous off day was only 10 days previous after all. But what do I know? Anyway, it's been 30 days since then, 27 games which is not a giant sample, but it's 1/6th of a season. What ca we learn from looking at this split?<br />
<br />
First. as a
team, the Jays gave up 4.9 runs per game through that game, and 3.55
runs per game since.<br /><br />Second, the five primary starters in the 30 days since looks like this (ERA/FIP/xFIP) per Fangraphs:<br /><br />Hutch - 5.16 / 4.39 / 3.56<br />Sanchez - 2.57 / 4.61 / 3.70<br />Dickey - 4.55 / 4.43 / 3.88<br />Buehrle - 2.35 / 3.78 / 4.33<br />Estrada - 4.78 -/3.86 / 4.51<br />
<br />
Which looking down that last column, that's not embarrassing IMO. 27 game sample though it is. <br />
<br />
Three
Jays in the top 60, NO Yankees (53 fewer runs on the season than the
Jays) and ONE Royal (77 fewer) in the top 60 - there's 2 Royals and one
Yankee ranked higher by xFIP than Estrada<br />
<br />
Again, sample size but...yeah, it's not nothing, right?<br />
<br />
Other thoughts:<br />
As Stoeten observed in <a href="http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/06/17/if-the-bullpen-isnt-so-bad-then-i-guess-wed-better-talk-about-the-rotation/">his take</a> on the subject, an acquired pitcher has to take a slot from one of those guys. The easy answer, of course, Estrada goes back to the bullpen, deserved or not. But as a mental exercise, what are the other options? The main point of Stoeten's comments was whether or not Drew Hutchinson has the cache to front a trade for an upgrade. Notwithstanding a lot of folks thought he was going to take a big step up this season and be a key piece of the rotation, the results have been mixed enough to make one worry about counting on him, and equally worried about trading him. One big factor is that Hutch's
home/road ERA split is insane(2.38 / 9.46). I don't know how to combine splits, but I'd
be interested in seeing how the xFIP lines up with that. I would not be
at all surprised to find that the scouts see more value in him than the
ERA suggests. And putting the guy with the most service time among the
young starters (and arguably the least pure-talent of the bunch) at the
front of a trade package would be not-crazy.<br />
If I'm wrong, he DOES have that option if things go further south.<br />
<br />
There is also, of course, the factor of how much money the Jays will be willing to take on. Here's a thought: what if you simply asked the team you deal with to take
Dickey/Thole back in the transaction? Let's say that you make a monster
deal for Cueto & Chapman at the mid-point of the season. Include
Dickey/Thole in the return package and the net increase in salary for
the Jays is 2.15 million.<br />
Of course if you do that you can't
include Hutch, and god knows what it would cost in prospects to get
those two - but you get the idea.<br />
<br />
Still, if Sanchez comes back strong and this trend holds, maybe you don't need a deal. I admit there's a little part of me that would like to see the in-house crew take them to a playoff position and beyond, just so I could play Nelson to those folks who insist the current crew isn't good enough to make it. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-27663935321421118632015-06-14T00:26:00.001-04:002015-06-14T00:26:42.671-04:00Monthly Prospect Progress and Assorted MLB Stuff: 2 of 5 This is a lot more fun, ain't it? On Monday, May 18 I wrote about potential ways to get the rotation right, but one of the things that never crossed my mind was a spot-start by Todd Redmond. But that's what they Jays choose to do that very day. Beginning after that game the Jays have allowed an average of 3.33 runs per game before Hutchinson blew up real good last night (better starting leads to better relief work in the aggregate). Through that game that figure was 4.9 so what changed was obvious. By sad coincidence the offense went cold (mostly due to injury - remember some of those line-ups?) for a couple of weeks - in the 14 days after Redmond's start they went 5-8, scoring 3 runs or less 7 times, accounting for all but one of those loses. Over that span, even while scoring big in the wins most nights, they averaged a full run less per game than they have over the whole season, which undermined the resurrection of the pitching.<br />
<br />
Point being, their biggest problem 26 days ago hasn't bee a problem since (last night notwithstanding).<br />
<br />
In other news this week, there was some sort of draft going on? I won't presume to be a resource when there are so many excellent legit resources out there but briefly, We all know the world loves the <b>Jon Harris</b> pick. Harris just signed his contract, which is great for bith he and the Jays - I'm predicting he's going to open the season in Vancouver. Though he may spend no more than a month there (depending on movement above him) if he preforms well. Not as many deep reports on Round 2 pick Brady Singer, a 6'5" RH high schooler who's a sort of helium pick which reminds me of how the Jays scored Noah Syndergaard. Round 3 brought another pick Kieth Law and others loved in lightly scouted (due to location) RHP Justin Maese. If you want a late round sleeper to watch, I'm going to go with 24th rounder Reggie Pruitt, a blazing CF that MLB.com reports was considered a top-3-rounds talent coming into his senior year. IF he signs of course - there's a reason he dropped this far. With little wiggle room in the pool, Alex would have to work a miracle to land him. Another name some are pointing to is Chandler Eden.<br />
<br />
Turning to the minors, before I get more specific on individual players, this year's Lansing Lugnuts are a offensive juggernaut. In 2012 they got to watch Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, and Desclafini in the same rotation and now this. The fascinating Anthony Alford, resurgent DJ Davis, blossoming Richard Urena, and slugger Rowdy Tellez in the same line-up, along with underdog hero Tim Locastro, unheralded Ryan McBroom and excellent work from a few Dunedin imports combine to leave opposing pitchers little recourse.<br />
On top of that, every pitcher in the starting rotation is a legitimate prospect. You can't compare it man for man to the 2012 rotation but there's no filler. Any Jays fans within travel distance really ought to seize the chance before some of these guys start getting promoted.<br />
<br />
This 1/5 report is a few days late so it's actually for 36 days instead of 30 - sue me. ;)<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><u><b><br /></b></u></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><u><b>Starting Pitchers</b></u></span><br />
<br />
<b>Jeff Hoffman</b> (Dunedin) - Five starts in now and you can see the
progress from week to week. There
were a lot more hits in his first two appearances (18 in 9.1 IP) than
his next two (4 in 9 IP) and more importantly, 8 runs in the first two
combined, zero runs in the next two.On Thursday he pitched 4 scoreless with only two hits before getting touched up for 3 more (and 3 runs) in the process of getting two out in the fifth. His ground-out rate is steadily
climbing too. It's early but signs are positive.Increased endurance will come as he keeps pitching.<br />
<br />
<b>Matt Boyd</b> (<strike>New Hampshire</strike>, Buffalo) - Has absolutely mastered AA, I'm mystified that the Blue Jays
haven't found a way to get him to AAA until today. Yes, he was promoted today and starts for the Bisons tomorrow. I still don't know which Buffalo pitcher will lose his turn, but Canadian Andrew Albers
seems a likely candidate to pitch for Team Canada in the Pan Am games,
possibly that's playing into it somehow. Some observers suggest Boyd's abilities are not necessarily as good as his stats suggest, so AAA might serve as a correction. Still, it's hard to not be impressed by a 0.77 WHIP, a 1.10 ERA, and a 3.89 K/BB ratio. <br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Daniel Norris</b> (Buffalo) - In 7 AAA starts, only once has he not walked at least 3 batters. The Blue Jays are NOT going to give him another chance in the majors soon as long as he's doing that. Likely it's some mechanical issue but they will want to see it fixed. <br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Jario Labourt</b> (Dunedin) - On the day I wrote the last of these monthly reports,
Labourt walked 4 in a a 2 inning (plus a batter) start in which he
apparently hit his pitch limit (he hadn't given up a run or a hit). At
that point he had 15 walks and 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings pitched and
carried a 4.60 ERA through 5 starts. Since that game, he has had six
more starts, totaling 30.2 IP, 12 BB, 29 k and a 2.64 ERA. I'm going to
venture he's figured something out. He's probably not going to move up
before Hoffman does, unless the first rounder suffers a serious
reversal, but it wouldn't be shocking if he spent some of the second
half in AA. Particularly if there's pressure from Lansing for an
opening.<br />
He pitched the back end of a double-header in Dunedin tonight and, naturally spit all over my comments on his newfound control. (this is what happens when you take too long to finish a post)<br />
<br />
<b>Scott Copeland </b>(Buffalo)<b> -</b> proved against the Marlins that he's not to be taken lightly. In Buffalo he's given up more than 2 runs only once and has an insane ground ball rate. He has a future in the Blue Jays pen if things break right on the depth chart.<br />
<br />
<b>Felix Dourbront</b> (Buffalo) - Had an ERA of 1.00 over his first 5 starts for Buffalo. There may come a time when an opt-out decision has to be made (I don't know if his contract with the Jays includes one, but they often do for major league veterans signed to minor league deals). His secondary numbers all support the idea that he's pitching well (unlike Randy Wolf).<br />
<br />
and the Lansing Crew<b>-</b><br />
<b>Sean Reid-Foley</b> - He was, like
Hoffman, a 2014 draftee (2nd round) but out of high school. So a full
season assignment was aggressive. How's he doing? How does a 13.83 K/9
rate grab you? He walks
way too many, still, but he's hard to hit and it may be that he is
dealing with the same problem Sanchez had - too much movement on the
fastball to try throwing it to the corners. I have not heard that, I'm
just speculating. Whatever it is, if he gets it under control (and isn't
traded in the mean time) then his name will be another on everyone's
lips. <br />
<br />
<b>Shane Dawson</b> - On the day I wrote my last update, Dawson had his first setback of the year. In his first start in June he had another. Outside those two he's been near magical. He's a Buehrle type, and he'll be challenged by the time he hits AA but he will surely get the chance at this rate. Coincidentally, John Lott has an <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-shane-dawson-pitching-without-a-muscle-in-his-shoulder-starting-to-show-his-true-potential">interesting piece</a> this week about Dawson and the muscle missing in his throwing shoulder. <br />
<br />
<b>Chase DeJong</b> - in two games that coincidentally bookended my last update post, DeJong allowed 12 runs in 11.2 innings and I was wavering on whether or not he was sliding off the prospect list (not that he was super-highly regarded anyway, but he was in the back end of a few Top 20 lists and I had him at #26). In 6 starts since he's put up a 2.26 ERA and that includes allowing five earned runs in one of those. Also it's worth noting that he has either 1, or 0 walks in 9 of 13 appearances and a respectable 7.75 K/9 ratio and a 4.47 K/BB rate.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Conner Greene</b> - under the radar RH just needs to find consistency. He has just over 1 k per IP and a nice K/BB ratio. Over three games (May 3-14) he got knocked around, giving up a collective 11 runs over 11.1 IP (15 H, 6 BB, 7 K) - outside that run he's only had two bad starts. In his other 6 starts he's given up a mere six runs. There might be something here.<br />
<br />
<b>Jesus Tinoco</b> - A Venezuelan bonus baby that hasn't gotten as much press as some other Latin signings, Tinoco is second only to Reid-Foley in talent in this rotation. Tonight's game was his peak so far, but it didn't look that way to start. The first 4 batters got a hit, 3 of them scored, and the pressure was on. Tinoco promptly struck out the next three batters. that touched off seven scoreless innings, with only 4 more hits and no walks and a total of 10 strikeouts. As with Reid-Foley, he sits on the verge of being a "high buzz" name among Jays fans. The prospect experts already know what he's about. <br />
<u><b><br /></b></u>
<u><b>Batters</b></u><br />
<br />
The main question-<br />
<b>Dalton Pompey</b> (New Hampshire) - The Blue Jays' management team thought perhaps Pompey was putting too much pressure on himself in Buffalo to make a quick return to Toronto. So they gave him some distance by dropping him to AA New Hampshire. Only Pompey can say whether he was, in fact, pressing in AAA but he sure found his groove once he moved East. It's only a seven game sample but a 1.334 OPS is kinda eye-catching. Alex said initially that he only anticipated Pompey being in New Hampshire "a couple of weeks" - that looks like an accurate prediction. <br />
<br />
the Lansing Crew-<br />
<b>Anthony Alford </b>- Alford has cooled some since his OPS peaked at an astonishing .909 on May 26 (It wasn't logical to assume THAT was going to last) and some adversty is good for a ballplayers soul. In the 14 games since then, he's 11 for 55 (.200) with 23 strikeouts and only one XBH. Speculation from afar means little, but based on the strikeouts (that's almost exactly twice the rate of his previous 107 AB) one might guess they've learned how to make him chase balls outside the zone and he hasn't adjusted his approach.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Richard Urena</b> - The gifted shortstp has a story that's the reverse of Alford. He was very cold to start the season (at the plate and in general, as a Latin player opening the season in Michigan for the first time). The stats for his first 11 games (.188/.234/.256/.490) has served to disguise how well he's doing since to the casual observer. Beginning April 23 until the beginning of play today, his slash numbers are .305/.319/.519/.838 in 187 at bats. The power is shocking pretty much everyone and is likely to regress as the season wears on. The flip side is he has ten times as many strikeouts as walks over that stretch. Still, it's an interesting factoid that he's outhitting the traded rival for the tag shortstop of the future, Frankin Barreto, so far this season.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Rowdy Tellez</b> - June has not been kind to Rowdy so far, sorting a .485 OPS (at the start of play tonight) as a result of a slump that actually started 2 days before June arrived. He does enjoy a reputation with his manager and the organization of being a very smart hitter who knows how to adjust. Which, given he's yet to go more than two consecutive games without a hit, there's something to that. He continued that pattern going 2/3 in tonight's game. A 12 game sample, though, is far too small to tell us much. One thing I've learned over the years is a that a minor leaguer can look like the mext Mike Trout for a month, and like Ryan Goins the next.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>DJ Davis</b> - Anthony Alford may have a rival for most interesting story in the system in fellow Mississippian Davis. A lot of observers, myself included, were on the verge of shoving him out of the "prospects only" room after his ugly 2014 campaign. To remind you, he slashed .213/.286/.316/583 last year with 167 strikeouts in 494 at bats. When his OPS sank from .845 on April 25 to .681 on May 17 the narrative practically wrote itself. But Davis, this time, was having none of it. In the 21 games since(coming into Saturday), he's slashing .373/.440/.520/.960 which is, of course, unsustainable but it shows he has the ability in there. Still hasn't mastered the SB yet, but one thing at a time. He's also pounded LHP in a small sample this year.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Tim Locastro</b> - Here's a guy who's got "future folk hero" written all over him. Not drafted as a prospect or praised as one at any previous point in his career, but the second baseman has one outstanding calling card: he'll do whatever it takes to get on base. Locastro was hit by a pitch an incredible 32 times in 67 games in Vancouver last season and is on a similar pace this year. For perspective, that pace last year, had it been over 150 major league games would have around 20 beyond the major league record. Reports are he takes the same "do anything" attitude to the basepath and the field.All that and he finished tonight hitting .326<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Ryan McBroom</b> - The 1B who's forced to DH because Tellez needs the reps in the field, is considered a potential power threat and not for no reason - he did hit 11 in 70 games in Vancouver last year to go with 23 doubles. But he has only 2 homers so far for Lansing, Otherwise though, his offensive game is better than ever so far, notably a much better walk rate. He's probably going to be stuck with playing second fiddle to Tellez throughout the system, but some observers think he has potential to surprise.<br />
<br />
Others of note- <br />
<b>JD Davis</b> (Dunedin) - Last month he'd have been a part of that list of Lansing hitters putting up eye-catching stats, but he was promoted to Dunedin halfway through May and after three great games hit the DL. He was out until June 4 but he came back just as hot as when he sat down. In 14 games in Lansing he hit over .400 with an OPS of 1.094, in 9 games in Dunedin he's hitting .424 with an OPS of 1.078 and six steals at each stop (which may not sound like much but pro-rate that to 162 games and it's 84). This from a guy who's a charter member of Marcus Stroman's HDMH club, standing 5'8" (officially). Suddenly the Jays are loaded with interesting CF prospects.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Roemon Fields</b> - Like Urena, it pays to see how he's been coming along after a short cold start. Drop the first six games of the year from his record and he's slashing .292/.333/.387/.720 over the last 53 games. Hes, it's blatant A.E.P. sampling, but there's value, in my opinion, in watching trends. This alone doesn't make him a top prospect, of course, but given how very few professional at-bats he has, compared to other High-A players, and his blazing speed, he doesn't have to be putting up an .800+ OPS to be interesting.<br />
<br />
<b>Andy Burns</b> - I keep thinking this guy is, you know, just a guy after all, but he keeps doing just enough to keep from being dismissed as an org guy. Take away the guys no longer on the team, and major league veteran Luke Scott, and Burns is the second best hitter on the veteran Buffalo squad. He doesn't do anything great, but he does most everything pretty good. That still doesn't likely get him to the show, but who knows? He doesn't seem to go away.<br />
<br />
<b>Matt Hague </b>- The best hitter (left) in Buffalo is this guy. He's spent most of the season at 3B, you won't see him in the majors unless the unspeakable happens, but you can't not mention a guy hitting .350 in AAA either.<br />
<br />
<br />
Alrighty then. That went on longer than I expected, both in word count and time spent, but there ya go. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-68544432950432515142015-05-18T02:22:00.002-04:002015-05-18T21:00:04.396-04:00Brainstorming solutions[Update: some of the assumptions below have been altered somewhat by the Blue Jays decision to bump their rotation back a day. I trust my readers - both of you - to be able to sort through those implications. Damned if I'm going to edit the thing. I will, however note that if they are going to take this step to rest the starters, it's markedly less likely the use the upcoming off days to juggle in the manner about which I speculated if it means costing too many of them the extra rest]<br />
<br />
I'm still remaining calm, but I admit to being a bit morose. I suppose it's too much to hope for to be a powerhouse over the course of a season when you're just hoping for your first October in over two decades, but constant mediocrity grinds you down in a way that just being obviously awful wouldn't. And despite having lost 15 of their last 22, this isn't a BAD team. If it occurs to you at some point that I'll sound like Wilner in my position on this team, that's understandable because on this question, I think he's right.<br />
<br />
So what's wrong with it? Let's narrow the possibilities. As of this writing the Blue Jays are still the most prolific offensive team in the game. They are the first and so far only team in the majors to 200 runs, and only one AL team is even close. This despite getting no offense at all form SS, little from CF, and playing two AAAA place holders in the outfield (albeit both contributing a lot with the bat). Asking the team to improve by scoring even more runs isn't rational, nor is quibbling about the timing of said runs (i.e. only scoring 2 today to name just one case). It is true that the team potentially gets better still on offense when everyone is where they were intended to be. But adding in Reyes, Saunders, and whoever is playing 1B today isn't necessarily going to be a ton better than Colabello, Carrera and the hapless Goins have been collectively. They just have a more reliable track record.<br />
<br />
So then if it's not the offense then what? Fielding? let's don't be silly. Donaldson, Goins, and Travis make up an excellent infield (EE isn't an embarrassment) and Pillar is a well known magician. Martin I don't even have to defend. Colabello is a liability but we're not five games under because of LF defense.<br />
<br />
That leaves pitching. The much disrespected bullpen? Not really. There have been some ugly moments, to be sure, however by most measures they compare well (4th in the AL in K/9 for example, 7th in OOPS, OOBP, and WHIP). Not lights out or anything, but serviceable enough Speaking in particular of the guys currently on the team, there's really only one issue - Jeff Francis. I think we're all mystified how he's still on the team. Loup? Nah. Six of his nine runs allowed came three apiece in two outings, with five weeks between them. He's fine.<br />
ETA: As I was writing this, Francis was thankfully DFA'd and Todd Redmond was recalled. Redmond was good enough in 2014 to make me slow to read too much into his 4.1 innings in 2015. We'll see how it goes. <br />
<br />
It's not a Hitchcockian twist that I have arrived where you knew i was going all along. The rotation.<br />
<br />
<b>Drew Hutchison - 6.17 ERA </b><br />
Hutch has the worst ERA of the current five, but he's been fine in his last two starts (3 ER over 11 IP) other than the need to economize his pitches and go deeper. My brainstorm which inspired this post was the idea of demoting him but you can't really do that coming off two good starts.<br />
<br />
<b>Mark Buehrle - 5.36 ERA</b><br />
Practically speaking, you can't do anything with Buehrle anyway. If he's not part of the solution then there is no solution. Beyond that, almost 1/3 of his runs allowed came in one of his eight starts. Take away that one start and his ERA otherwise is 4.22 which is not good enough but it's major. Take that one and the one immediately prior to it and we're down to 3.65 which is slightly better than his career ERA. We're going to have to hope that starts #4 and 5 were just a horrible blip and that he'll be fine from now on. It's not an irrational hope at all but our collective nerves are jumpy, right?<br />
<br />
<b>Aaron Sanchez - 4.26 ERA</b><br />
Channeling Wilner again on this point - we can't fairly say what Sanchez's baseline is. We know he has the stuff to get far better, but we have no idea when or if he turns it on. Someone pointed out on Twitter the other night the example of Chris Archer. Archer is a monster now, at the age of 26 and has been well above average for three years with a BB/9 of 3.1 as a major leaguer, yet from 2008 through 2011, at A and AA, his collective BB/9 was 5.25 and ranged as high as 6.6 so great talent can overcome control issues. Not to say it always does. His last start was his worst, and it can't be ruled out to give him the Norris Maneuver and see how it goes - particularly if he's still inconsistent when Norris is ready to return. Still, they'll likely give him at least two more starts before deciding anything. His third turn out falls on an off day so that wold be a natural point to maybe make a move. <br />
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<b>Marco Estrada - 5.52 ERA </b>(as starter)<br />
Has gotten better results start to start but if he can't economize and get beyond the 5th inning, he's not going to have the job long. It's not a matter of being stretched out, he's thrown almost 100 pitches in the last two outings and still only went five. With a rotation otherwise struggling and a bullpen that's soft towards the back, you can't have that. He's got two more turns before the Jays come to a 15 day stretch with three off days. If he doesn't step up in that time I expect some rotation changes while they have some flexibility.<br />
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<b>RA Dickey - 5.76 ERA</b><br />
I was worried about Dickey before the season started, and was saying that I didn't think his option would be - or should be - picked up. But I didn't see this coming. Still, if I make an effort to parse things out and be fair, I could argue that five of his first six games were fine - 3.15 ERA n those five games and a not insane 4.38 with the bad one. But the last two have been hideous. You have to hope it's a blip - remember Buehrle had two awful games and recovered - because this team is NOT going to be quick to do something different with him for the very reason that the knuckleball is a recipe for inconsistency. If he, and the team, don't feel he's gotten it together in two more starts, they have the opportunity to do some jugging with the off days in order to let him skip a start, but it's kind of a tricky thing because there'd be a start that, well, let e show you.<br />
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As it stands, the rotation from May 24 goes like this:<br />
Hutch > RAD > Estrada > Buehrle > off > Sanchez > Hutch > RAD > Estrada > Buehrle > Sanchez >off<br />
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Now what you can do is flip RAD and Hutch, giving the latter a 7th day start (he pitches much better on long rest) while RA goes on his normal rest but also lines up his next turn with an off day. Cool except - if he pitches well in that start do you still want to skip the turn? Me, I'd flip them anyway just to have the option - but the Blue Jays haven't been known for such maneuvering. And of course, there might be other ways you'd prefer to use the off day - say to line Estrada''s turn up with the guy you anticipate replacing him with. Still, all you can do with Dickey in the most radical extreme is let him pitch in long relief and i don't think that they would anticipate that as the best role for recapturing some measure of consistency.<br />
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What? You thought I'd have answers?<br />
My long-distance judgement is that Hutch is likely to be fine going forward, as is Buehrle, and that you're stuck with Dickey. If I'm wrong about Hutch, and if he really looks bad for, say, three consecutive starts, he does in fact have an option.<br />
Sanchez? I don't think they will let him go all year walking this many. How much rope he gets may well depend on internal evaluations of progress that we won't be told about unless he's optioned. It's maybe 40/60 he's given a visit to Buffalo before the end of the month (here i disagree with Wilner, I don't think they just punt him to the bullpen. There's some short term gain there but if you want him to eventually be a top-shelf starter you have to resist that.<br />
Estrada? Yeah, unless he pulls out a 7 inning start with good stats, he's got two more turns - three at most to try. Because the options made be as good at it as he is and quite possibly better.<br />
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Options? Yeah, here's the top of that list:<br />
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<b>Daniel Norris </b>- only the internal observations can really tell us if he's making the progress in Buffalo that they are looking for. The BB/9 ratio is virtually identical, the K's are up a tick, the contact down some - but this is AAA after all. His longest outing, 6.1 IP on 103 pitches. Slightly better than Estrada on efficiency, likely to get better results. but ENOUGH better to justify recalling Norris if you aren't satisfied he's in the groove? I'm not sure. One factor, if you aren't down for 20 days you don't use up an option - he has three days left on that clock, if he's still in Buffalo on Thursday it cold be a while.<br />
On the other hand, we're gaining an extra year of control in 2021 so that's fun!<br />
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<b>Randy Wolf </b>- Yes, he's owning the IL right now. He ran off a string of 22 scoreless innings, and he's given up more than 1 earned run (3) in only one of his 7 starts. He's hot. He's also not really this good. He's a 38 year old soft-tosser who's using a lot of guile and a little stuff. He could be the equivalent of Francis against big league hitters (which is exactly what he's been since 2011). Still and all, he has a June 1 opt out and if Estrada (or Sanchez) doesn't firm up their grip before the next off day the Blue Jays will have to at least consider seeing if he can give them a band-aid that will at least buy the kids some more time. Let's say for the sake of argument Sanchez holds on and Estrada doesn't. If you plug Wolf into Estrada's turn and push it back every time an off day allows you to, then three starts (enough to draw some conclusions) would string it out until June 21 before you had to make a call on Norris or some other kid. He's on the same rotation day as Estrada, FWIW.<br />
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<b>Felix Doubront </b>- Has made only one appearance for Buffalo, but coincidentally his third turn out from now aligns with Sanchez's day to pitch (if they don't skip him on the off day). He enjoys the advantage over Wolf of being 11 years younger, but his one good year (at 25) was just slightly below average, so unless they see something the stats don't sow he's no savior. He's probably better than Albers and definitely better than Francis but otherwise - who the hell knows?<br />
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<b>Scott Copeland</b> - At 27 (same as Doubront) he's sort of an org-guy clawing his way onto the radar. He's a ground-ball machine who really impressed them in the Spring and he's already been up once. Don't expect a miracle, but like Wolf, he might be a guy who could buy them 4-6 weeks to see if the kids are going to pull things together. give Sanchez 4 more kicks at the can and Copeland's turn lines up with his for the fifth turn out, on June 9.<br />
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<b>Matt Boyd</b> - a 24 year old LH college kid who's owning the EL on the AA level and really probably is gonna need to be challenged. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher but he gets a lot of K's and gives up - at least at this level - not many baserunners. As long as the Jays are hoarding veterans (Wolf, Doubront, Albers) at AAA there's not a lot of room for him there (if we count Castro's developmental turns, they actually have six starters their now) and if they think he can handle the jump i wouldn't be at all surprised to see Boyd make the jump to the majors in the right spot - though I'd be mildly surprised if it was more than just a patch-over 2-3 start thing. If Wolf opts out at the end of the month, Boyd will surely be promoted. He's another guy, by the way, who projects to start in close parallel to Sanchez's start days (outside the vaguries caused by off-days).<br />
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In summation, while I'm not down on Estrada if he's the fifth guy based on his career, I'm not sure he's a good fit for a sometimes struggling group and see nothing lost if any of these guys get a trial in that turn (other than not wanting Norris to be yoyo'ed). They may or may not be better, but it might save your 'pen a bit at least. As for Sanchez, we simply can't know without internal info what they are thinking with him. I suspect that if at least three of the others get in a reliable quality groove they will give him a lot of rope, but if Dickey continues to flounder, Estrada stays short, and/or one of the others goes backwards then Sanchez may become the change to make just out of an urge to do SOMETHING. The old-timers in his spot would be a come down, as the potential for a dominant start pretty much disappears, but I'd as soon see either of those young lefties in his spot as see him remain.<br />
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None of this, by the way, should be read as me giving up on either Hutch, Sanchez, or Norris. I love dreaming on the future with those three along with Stroman, Hoffman, and Osuna and consider these growing pains part of the process. But sadly, they are backed into a win-now corner so a balance has to be struck.<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-13998136538401472062015-05-07T19:09:00.000-04:002015-05-07T19:09:28.798-04:00Monthly Prospect Progress and Stuff: 1 of 5I'm kind of feeling unnecessary again. In the Jays' blogosphere there's so very much good work being done by those well equipped to address virtually any angle that there's really almost no room for some little long distance casual blogger like myself to contribute anything more than an occasionally interesting (I hope!) opinion. Does anyone read sports blogs for opinions, really? They're looking for actual facts and information they didn't already have - and they all pretty much follow the same sources I do, the ones who don't have some sort of inside contact in the organization and know more on any given day that I do.<br />
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I could list off a dozen blogs that any half-interested Blue Jays fan really ought to be following religiously. But I can't honestly say mine would be one of those. No sooner than I thought I'd found a niche doing weekly updates than i realized some 3 or more other bloggers were doing it as well, and generally better (either via deeper analysis or better connections). I'm probably not going to bother with that anymore. <br />
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Still, in previous seasons (last year's unfortunate events notwithstanding) I'd done updates at the end, roughly, of each month of the minor league season. I need to be plugging away at SOME thing or their won't be enough content here to make it worthwhile to post at all so I'll see how this works. I had previously done these reports more in relation to player status and performance than by team (be honest, do you REALLY care who's in first place in the Midwest League on May 1? if you're not a fan of the Midwest league team first - no you don't, and maybe not even then) and I'll continue that pattern, but slightly modified in that I'll format it a bit more toward the Top Prospect list.<br />
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What follows then will reflect a consensus prospect list which results from combining the rankings by myself and nine other bloggers (technically more than nine since it uses the Batters Box list which is itself a compilation of the minor league contributes there). The list tracks fairly closely to a consensus list of nine leading professional sources (BA, BP, Kieth Law, John Sickels and others) - each list has the same 10 players in the top 10, although in slightly different order from 5-10 - but four of the pro lists only go to 10, while every blogger went to at least 20 (and most to 30 or beyond. This allows me to get a consensus list 20 deep, and I'll also look at other players of note at the end, particularly guys who might end up in the Top 20 by years end. As per the old format, they are divided into pitchers and hitters.<br />
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<u><span style="font-size: large;">Pitchers </span></u><br />
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<b>1. Dan Norris </b>/ LH / Buffalo - Given his work to this point has been in the majors, you know the deal. Beat reporters have noted that the team thinks the issue is mostly mental (i.e. struggling with shaking off a bit of adversity, and/or trying to be too perfect) and over-dependence on the fastball.<br />
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<b>2. Aaron Sanchez</b> / RH / Toronto - Tantalizing and frustrating for reasons I'm sure you've noted. <br />
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<b>4. Jeff Hoffman</b> / RH / (extended) - drawing rave reviews before he even gets into game action, he's probably less than two weeks away from being assigned (my money is on Dunedin) and the talk suggests he's rise as fast as his production dictates ala Graveman, Norris, etc last year. Legit possibility the jays see him in September but one must be careful about assuming too much.<br />
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<b>5. Roberto Osuna</b> / RH / Toronto - so far so good. A busy reliever's standard workload is just about right as he builds up his IP, the real question is whether they trap him in relief or let him spend part of a year back on the farm in 2016 adding to those 80 or so innings so that he's an option for the rotation if the need arises. I never heard anyone say he projected as a reliever anyway until late spring so I wonder if that's a bit revisionist.<br />
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<b>6. Miguel Castro</b> / RH / <strike>Toronto</strike> Buffalo - Conversely, I have little problem envisioning Castro on track to be the closer long term rather than being re-tracked into a starting role next year. I'm not sure I can explain completely why I view the two so differently. But basically, Castro was the guy with the devastating fastball while needing lot of work on secondary offerings - one upgrade, to the change, turned him into a guy with two above average pitches but no one really describes the others as ready (though the slider gets some buzz). OTOH, Osuna was described as a guy with an arsenal and the pitchability of one much older back when he was 15. But given the depth of young stud pitchers, it's not a bad thing at all if he ends up closing. All that said, I don't figure anyone is stunned to see an A-ball guy take a minute or two to adapt to being in the majors. I would worry over much about the demotion.<br />
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<b>10. Sean Reid-Foley</b> / RH / Lansing - If one could overlook the wildness, they'd find his line astonishing. For someone who was still in his last days of high school a year ago and already in A Ball, you have to like it.<br />
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<b> 13. Matt Smoral / </b>LH<b> / </b>(extended) - Shi Davidi helpfully provided some insight <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/farm-report-hoffman-tellez-progress-for-jays/">here</a> into the as-yet-unassigned pitching and Smoral was one mentioned. Most of us amateurs were puzzled he didn't break with a full-season squad but the dirt here is that he had a minor injury they chose to be cautious with. Now that he's getting read to get into real games, there's a bit of a crowding issue. This applies to others on the list as well so let me g on a bit of a tangent here.<br />
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The current Lansing starting staff has six guys, four of who appear elsewhere in this post. In Dunedin there's less crowding and three veteran free agent organization filler guys (Allen, Santos, and Smith) on hand. Hoffman figures to kick one of those guys aside and logically, one or two of the Lansing guys ought to be on the verge of doing the same to the other two. One would assume that when this happens, there'll be room for Smoral in Lansing. <br />
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<b>14. Jario Labourt</b> / LH / Dunedin - Last year he was aggressively placed to Lansing, he was a mess and after a mere 14 IP (in which he walked 20!) he was dropped back to extended before being assigned to Vancouver where he pitched great (albeit still wit more walks than ideal, but that's not shocking for younger guys). He earned an assignment to Dunedin this spring, skipping the cold of Lansing, but it hasn't been all sunshine anyway. He went great start awful start, great then awful again. <strike>Now he's on the 7-Day DL</strike>.(That's what happens when you write a post a week before you plan to publish it)<br />
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<b>18. Alberto Tirado</b> / RH / Dunedin - Same as above, he started 2014 in Lansing along with Labourt, and was awful - walking almost a batter an inning until they pulled the plug after 40 IP and sent him down to Vancouver, where he improved somewhat but still walked too many initially. He never made it back to Lansing but showed enough this spring for another aggressive promotion (albeit this time as a reliever) to Dunedin. In the early going, he's not stumbled this time. Davidi quotes Jays' Farm Director Tony LaCava in reporting Tirado may eventually be tried as a starter again, but needed to have some success. <br />
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<b>19. Ryan Borucki</b> / LH / (extended) - Disabled after an elbow clean-up, there's no fresh news which implies he's not on the mound yet.<br />
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Beyond the Top 20, in order of how I ranked them: <br />
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<b>Jesus Tinoco</b> / RH / (extended) - Pitched well enough in extended that when Lansing needed an arm for the duble-header the found themselves in this week, he got the promotion. He wasn't immediately sent back out after so maybe they are going to give him an extended look. <br />
<b>Case DeJong</b> / LH / Lansing - Re-bounding nicely from last year's struggles, should be on the countdown to make the move to Dunedin soon (as discussed above). Of course, I'm only looking at the stat line as with many of my comments.<br />
<b>Clint Hollon / </b>RH<b> / </b>(extended) - When/if DeJong (or someone else - see below) moves up, Smoral is in line to replace him - this guy, an almost forgotten by many 2nd round choice, would then be next in line, although it's possible that he'll be held back long enough to get a taste of Canada in Vancouver (something Alex talked about a few weeks ago as something the team would factor in when making assignments) <br />
<b>Matt Boyd</b> / LH / New Hampshire - Dominating so far, LaCava told Davidi he still needed work on his secondary pitches. Still, a lot of observers feel like that he might be a guy who could push his way into a late-season bullpen appearance. If he can overcome the logjam of relievers the Jays have stockpiled in AAA of course. Which is not to say they will not continue to view him as a starter for as long as possible. Also could be one of the more attractive trade candidates.<br />
<b>Adonys Cardona</b> / RH / (extended) -recovering from yet another injury that shortened 2014, LaCava reports he's hitting as high as 97 again. To try and keep him healthy, he'll work from the bullpen as what LaCava called a "priority reliever" which I take to me, he'll get his innings on a regular schedule regardless of situation, and then they will re-evaluate his future as a starter f he stays out there all year. Should be activated by Lansing soon. <br />
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Others to watch:<br />
<b>Shane Dawson</b> / LH / Lansing - Soft-tosser is fooling everyone and needs to be challenged with a promotion which one would think would be coming quite soon, P<br />
<b>Conner Greene</b> / RH / Lansing - 2013 draftee (7th round), just past his 20th birthday, posting tasty ratios in the early going which bodes well for continued success.<br />
<b>John Anderson</b> / LH / New Hampshire -The Dustin McGowan of the Jays minor leagues, he has good enough stuff for them to stick with him, but enough injuries to make everything uncertain. He's accumulated less than 300 IP in the system since 2008. LaCava says he has "probably the best stuff" on the AA team but he just needs consistent work. Given the org depth among SP, that window of opportunity may have closed for him but a power lefty in the 'pen is a valuable thing if that's where he lands. <br />
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Reliever-polooza:<br />
In no particular order, other than being grouped by level, the following guys have rocked it so far - minor league relieving being what it is, who can say which of these might offer major league results at some point. (Not nitpicking here about what constitutes actual "prospect")<br />
Buffalo - Colt Hynes, Ryan Tepera, Rob Rasmussen, Preston Gulmet, Bo Schultz (apart from one bad inning from Luis Perez, the whole 'pen here really)<br />
New Hampshire - <strike>Matt West</strike>, Danny Barnes, Blake McFarland, Dustin Antolin, Tiago Da Silva (just promoted)<br />
Dunedin - Will Browning, Chad Giordo, Jimmy Cordero<br />
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<u><span style="font-size: large;">Hitters</span></u><br />
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3. <b>Dalton Pompey</b> / CF / Buffalo - You know at least as much as I, there hasn't yet been any in-depth reporting on the demotion but one might suppose that this is one of those "how will you react to failure?" moments that high-character payers will come back from just fine. <br />
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7.<b> Max Pentacost</b> / C / (extended) - Technically listed on the Dunedin roster, and on the 7 day DL, but the originally mentioned recovery times dovetails nicely with the beginning of the short-season teams' season, and I'm inclined to think the Jays might give him a little run through the Northwest League before moving him back to A ball. <br />
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8.<b> Devon Travis</b> / 2B / Toronto - Really nothing to say here, right?<br />
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9. <b>Richard Urena</b> / SS / Lansing -needs to start getting that K rate down but for a Dominican playing in the cold for the first time, some grace is warranted. Not enough data yet.<br />
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11.<b> Mitch Nay </b>/ 3B / Dunedin - LaCava explains they've made adjustments to Nay to see if he can pull the ball more to capitalize his in-game power (most think he has significant power potential but it doesn't manifest in games, the team thinks, because he tends to hit to the middle of the field. As such, you can't make too much of his stats so far. <br />
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12. <b>Dwight Smith, Jr</b>. / LF / New Hampshire - If he had more power, or speed, or glove, he'd get a lot more notice. For me, he's still a "tweener" who lacks a clear major league path, but he can hit ad draw walks and that's not nothing. Might be helpful in a trade to a less ambitious team. <br />
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15. <b>Anthony Alford </b>/ CF / Lansing - Has done nothing to dim the high praise he's now getting from all quarters. It's not a crazy claim to suggest he's already the best position player prospect the Jays have. Still, it's early and adjustments - and counter adjustments - are yet in the future. <br />
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16. <b>Rowdy Tellez</b> / 1B / Lansing -.899 OPS since April 15, like Urena, too many K's but pretty easy to overlook if he's producing. Put it down as a goal, more than a concern. <br />
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17. <b>Dawel Lugo</b> / SS / Dunedin - he's just 20 and at A+ which buys some grace, but I seriously worry whether he'll ever hit and the stat line does nothing to convince me I'm wrong so far. LaCava says they are happy with him though so...shrug?<br />
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20 <b>AJ Jimenez</b> / C / Buffalo - Just promoted after spending some time in AA when he came off the DL (presumably because Thole being in Buffalo would have regulated one of them to the bench). He's done nothing in 2015 and he's in danger of losing what tiny sliver of prospect status he has left unless he has a pretty remarkable rest-of-the-season.<br />
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Beyond the Top 20 (as I ranked them):<br />
<b>Lane Thomas </b>/ IF-OF / (extended) - It's not that they don't list him as a 2B, it's that he's so good they can't decide where his bat plays best. He probably doesn't have the pop traditionally associated with 3B, so it's here or CF and it's probably easier to move out later if needed than in.<br />
<b>Matt Dean </b>/ 1B / Dunedin - Some occasional homers can't disguise the horrid BB/K ratio. That would take massive power he hasn't shown. Averaging a strikeout per game at 22 without it tends to kill your prospect status.<br />
<b>DJ Davis</b> / CF / Lansing -Really seemed to have figured things out for a secnd, then hit a 1 for 17 over 5 games that suppressed his rates. You know how early season slumps can kill a player's line. Bears watching. <br />
<b>Dan Jansen</b> / C - Lansing -It's like most of the Lansing squad wasn't ready for Michigan in early April and took the first week off. Jansen was 0 for 14 in his first five games. Unlike some of the other slow starters, he hasn't gotten untracked yet. Time will tell if the progression was too aggressive or if he finds a way to get his swing going. <br />
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Others to watch:<br />
<b>Andy Burns</b> / IF / Buffalo - More "sleeper" than prospect by the most generous of estimates. But his some versatility and maybe enough bat to cling to the end of a major league bench. Maybe. Probably not but...maybe.<br />
<b>Christan Lopes </b>/ 2B / New Hampshire - very well regarded when drafted, Lopes has mastered the art of mediocre as a pro. He seemed to show some significant breakout potential in winter ball down under but it was more of "pretty okay" for Dunedin in April. Still, maybe the Jays see something - he was just promoted to NH - or maybe it was just the best they could do when the AA squad found themselves short-handed.<br />
<b>Roemon Fields</b> - / CF / Dunedin - first (almost) week was a disaster - a .167 OPS in the first six games - but since April 15 his OPS is .760 which, given his inexperience, is pretty okay. <br />
<b>Dicke Joe Thon</b> / IF-OF / Dunedin - Kicked ass at Lansing - but was some 2 years (at least) two old for the league, off to a slow start in five games in Dunedin but I'm sucker enough for the feel-good story that I'll give him a minute.<br />
<b>Ryan McBroom</b> / 1B / Lansing -He's a 1B, DHing only because Tellez is on the same team. He's hitting well, and he's 3 years older than Tellez so obviously much impacted by that in terms of prospect status. <br />
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In the future, I'll address actual news, good and bad, and not include guys just because they were on a pre-season list.<br />
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<br />The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-33356629909561011202015-04-27T04:47:00.001-04:002015-04-27T04:47:14.495-04:00Highs and Lows - 3 Weeks InSweep Orioles? Yay!<br />
Get swept by Rays? Awww.<br />
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In fairness, the Jays have won one series in Tampa in . . . ever? . . . s losing at least two of these, particularly when Archer was in the mix, isn't crazy - but letting the Saturday night game slip away was a huge downer. That said, I still contend it's very foolish to get all bent out of shape about the bullpen. Stuff happens. To everyone. I remain calm, it's just too early. So - system review time!<br />
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Toronto<br />
Pitching wise, you have to be encouraged by Hutch and Norris but there's a ton of inconsistency in he staff as a whole. As much as I'd love to think that those two, at least, have found their happy place, I'd just as much like to hope Castro's last couple are only a blip but I have no objective argument to prove it's not the reverse.<br />
Offensively you still have to be pretty happy about where they are with only half (less than, really, since he's benched the busier half of his personal platoon) of Reyes, and only one of the expected key bats raking (along with one gigantic surprise - Travis - and one mild one - Smoak).<br />
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<u><b>Buffalo</b></u><br />
The Bisons remain En Fuego - before Sunday's loss they were on an 11-1 run. The offense has caught up, nearly, with the pitching, with a team OPS good at .721 for 3rd in the league (.729 leads) though with such a veteran roster that should be expected. Chris Colabello has taken over the team lead in OPS with his league leading 5 home runs but Matt Hague remains right there with him. Nothing to say about the pitchers except more of the same excellence.<br />
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<u><b>New Hampshire</b></u><br />
You may remember my praise of the bullpen last week, Matt West and Luis Perez still haven't surrendered a run and the next three best relievers have given up four, collectively, in 25.1 IP - the line for all five reads: 42.2 - 31 - 4 - 18 - 54. Matt Boyd finally saw his ERA budge off zero but it was my no means an ugly affair. On the offensive side, apart from noting that DSJ continues to perform well, i have to mention KC Hobson. He's blocked about 4 different ways at AAA, and he's been around this circuit too long (having been promoted mid-2013) but he's having his best season yet in the early going. It's unwise to assume so much from such a sample but even if he kept this up there'd still be a lot of questions.<br />
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<u><b>Dunedin</b></u><br />
At the start of play on April 18, Roemon Fields sported a BA of only .167 and an OPS of .461 - since then he's gone 15 for 31 and has a 1.110 OPS. Better keep your eye on him. Christian Lopes is also 7 for his last 17. Dawel Logo is 6 for 19, and Matt Dean is also clawing back from an awful start. On the pitching side, reliever Jimmy Cordero is hitting as high as 102 on the guns and so far fooling everyone. Prospect Alberto Tirado is doing solid work, while Jario Labourt seems to be getting in touch with his inner Aaron Sanchez, mixing dominating stuff with a shaky feel for the strike zone. <br />
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<u><b>Lansing</b></u><br />
Where to start with this bunch? After 5 games Anthony "The Legend of" Alford is OPSing .917 and seemingly leading the team in stories told about. Dicke Thon (again, too old for the Midwest) is demanding promotion (.945). DJ Davis is bidding to be taken seriously again (OPS of .842). First Baseman/DH Ryan McBroom (whom broadcaster Jessie Goldberg-Strassler reports is very much on the radar of organizational power brokers as a guy with legit major league potential at the plate) is trying to elbow his way out of Rowdy Tellez's considerable shadow. Oh, and Danny Jansen seems to have shaken off his 0 for 14 start. On the mound, ultra-soft tosser Shane Dawson is fooling everyone, but it's uncertain how that will play as he moves up. College draftee Justin Schafer has looked good and Chase DeJong has done nothing to dim his luster.<br />
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It's not impossible that I find motivation to post more than once a week. Sometime. It could happen. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5015756050247283814.post-91875140009901756162015-04-19T23:15:00.000-04:002015-04-19T23:15:07.004-04:00Keeping Calm - 2 Weeks InSo it's been over a week without a post but I wasn't really comfortable with the "Random Notes" model, not that I might not use it again, and I see no point in just being one more voice in the throng just repeating every news item as it pops up. I'd rather try to provide at least a little original content.<br />
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That said, two weeks in it's reasonable to take stock through the system and see what things look like.<br />
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<u><b>Toronto</b></u><br />
A lot of nervousness going on but, as Stoeten might say, simmer the fuck down. The Blue Jays lead the major leagues in scoring, and that with Bautista, Encarnacion, and Martin well below any reasonable expectation for output and only Devon Travis (among the starters) possibly a bit higher than you might have guessed (though he's changing a lot of minds in the early going). That should be cause for some excitement on that side of the ball. Plus, today's throwing error notwithstanding, the defense has gotten a lot of praise.<br />
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The pitching is another story, but there's some complexity there too. The team ERA is 14th in he league at 4.54 but take away Todd Redmond and it's 4.03 good for 7th in the league. Under the same selective calculation, the bullpen ERA - which is 4.14 and 12th in the AL would, without Redmond, turns into 2.68 which would be 4th in the AL. I'm not saying such a calculation is exactly fair but it's key here because Redmond is gone (and may well be claimed, but even if he's not being off the 40 means he won't be at the front of the line to come back. It's also been suggested he may have the right to declare free agency rather than accept the assignment.<br />
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Of course, this doesn't help the rotation results so far. Buhrlie and Dickey have done what they do (albeit RA has to be concerned about those walks) and Norris, despite not having the life on his pitches he wants (he said after the game today that he's going through a "dead arm phase") but even so, until today he had numbers that, extrapolated to a whole season, would be a fine rookie season. But you really want Hutchison to step up to the expectations soon and everyone is watching Sanchez.<br />
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But still, one Tweeter (who's name I can't remember and I'm too lazy to look up) inspired me to look up his claim and elaborate. There was another Blue Jays team that started off slow. The were 7-6 after the games of April 20 and they would go on to be 11-12 over the next (almost) month and sat at 18-18 on May 15. By the way - that team went on to win the World Series in 1993.<br />
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Also - Gibby said post game that he "Hopes and thinks" that Reyes and Travis will both play Tuesday, and barring a further setback Michael Saunders should return in the next week sometime. So there's that.<br />
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<u><b>Buffalo</b></u><br />
The Bisons are riding a six game winning streak and the veteran roster is doing mostly what you'd expect. The pitching has been uniformly excellent apart from one Jenkins start and Scott "Groundball Machine" Copeland apparently has caught the eye of management. The pitching staff sports a collective ERA of 2.01, and that's how you run off a winning streak. The offense hasn't been as impressive, noticeably Caleg Gindl has cooled a bunch from his hot spring. But Andy Burns was promoted when Goins left for the majors and was 4/4 in hi first AAA game. He's now about the only semi-prospect among the position players on this otherwise veteran team.<br />
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<u><b>New Hampshire</b></u><br />
Here the story is really mostly about the two prospects on the team (recovering AJ Jimenez notwithstanding) and the unheralded residents of the bullpen. On offense, the one everyone is watching is Dwight Smith, Jr. Despite reports the Blue Jays had designs on trying him at 2B, he's played left exclusively in this young season - possibly because of the continued presence of Jon Berti, or possibly to avoid magnifying the pressure that comes with the leap to AA - but his hitting hasn't suffered. Prospect status aside (he was well regarded when drafted but hasn't impressed since) 1B KC Hobson is off to a nice start.<br />
On the mound, LH starter Matt Boyd seems to have shaken off the hiccups he experienced in AA last season. He's pitched 9.1 innings in two starts so far and struck out 18 batters. Falling in the mid-low 20's on most prospect lists (notably, John Sickels had him at #16) Boyd will force some re-ordering if he keep this up. The rest of the AA rotation has been more shaky. The bullpen on the other hand has been lights out. Except for Corey Burns. He's given up 6 ER in 7.2 IP, the rest have allowed but 4 in a combined 44.1 IP - that works out to a bullpen ERA of 1.73 with Burns and 0.81 without. Among the featured players are waiver claim and sleeper prospect Matt West, old friend Luis Perez, and finally healthy Danny Barnes along with AFL surprise Blake McFarland. Arguably each of these men really ought to be at AAA and if they keep it up some tough decisions will have to be made.<br />
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<u><b>Dunedin</b></u><br />
The story here is much the same. The .500 (pending the results of today's rain-delayed tie game) team features uncertain hitting and praise-worthy pitching. It is a team, however, with more prospects to watch. Every position in the infield features a player who's been highly touted at some point (being perhaps too generous to Christian Lopes) - none of them are particularly disappointing or impressive in the early going. Among pitchers, Jario Labourt and Alberto Tirado are the two that bring the press clippings with them. Probably the observation most worth making is that Tirado, who's had some control issues, has only one walk against eight strikeouts so far.<br />
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<u><b>Lansing</b></u><br />
The 8-3 Lugnuts are also the beneficiaries of a lot of excellent pitching. Other than one stumble by Conner Greene, it's hard to find a fault, and Chase DeJong along with unheralded Starlyn Suriel are already pushing for their ticket back to Florida. Prize draft pick Sean Reid-Foley, only 19 this season, hasn't been dinged yet in two starts but has been a little more wild than ideal. At the plate, the player that has stood out from the rest is one-time prospect Dicke Joe Thon who's off to a blistering start with a 1.159 OPS. It would be a great feel-good story if he put himself back on the map, but he's 23 and taking his second go at Lo-A ball (at least one if not two levels lower than a real prospect his age ought to be) so he's got a lot of work to do.<br />
The potential big bopper on this team is Rowdy Tellez who was 0-7 in his first two games but has heated up nicely, witness his .825 OPS in the nine games since (in which he's been on base in all but one of them). On the other hand, he's striking out at an alarming rate. DJ Davis is also off to an encouraging start, having reached base in every game before today's 0 for 4 effort. <br />
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So there ya go, if I know it now you know it. The Southpawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12978086362601077757noreply@blogger.com0