The Southpaw

Top Prospect Update

2012-02-08T19:56:00.004-05:00

Okay, Before I get to the main body of this post, this is just a shout out post which will be deleted once it (hopefully!) produces the desired results:

I have a post on my list of things do to which involves remarking upon the various prospect ranking of high-profile sites. The one i'm yet waiting on is Keith Law. BUT in the mean time, i have a problem.

I need SOMEONE who bought toe Baseball America Handbook to give me the rest of their Top 30 ranking for the Jays. I'd love to be able to afford the book but I CAN'T (frankly, any month in which the electric bill gets paid is a win), I'd love to read their whole scouting report on the system and everyone in it but i don't have that option. but I can't do the post I want to do properly without knowing the rest of their top 30.

Now, with that out of the way, on to business. It is my custom each year (albeit i apparently failed to post one last year) to do a final pre-season revision of my Top Prospect list. This is to reflect any off-season changes to the system, as well as any new information that has come across the wire. It may seem odd to have a fall list and a spring list, but my list is always evolving even when I don't tell you about it!

So, this is the most recent iteration (not in reverse order since the previous list is out there).

1. Travis d'Arnaud /C - seems near unanimous consensus here.

2. Jake Marisnick /CF - I'm not alone in preferring him to Gose (slightly)

3. Anthony Gose /CF - meaning no disrespect.

4. Drew Hutchison /RHP - some of these others have a higher ceiling, but he gets points ofr execution at a high level

5. Daniel Norris /LHP - an awful lot of good things being said about this guy

6. Noah Syndergaard /RHP - apparently still has room to get better

7. Justin Nicolino /LHP - as good as the numbers would imply

8. Aaron Sanchez /RHP - numbers were not as impressive but stuff is there

9. Adeiny Hechavarria /SS - Dropped a bit more because the pitchers are SO good not because I believe in him less.

10. Deck McGuire /RHP - lower ceiling than the kids, really good chance to reach it.

11. Carloe Perez /C - took a lot bigger hit from poor year than was warranted I think

12. Michael Crouse /RF - could be a CF if not on the same level with Jake.

13. Antonio Jimenez /C - I might be the only one who still has him behind Perez.

14. Marcus Knecht /LF - could be a RF but Crouse and Marisnick are better

15. Adonys Cardona /RHP - stats skewed by relief work, as starter he was excellent. May be top 10 next year.

16. Matt Dean /3B - Kevin Goldstien confirmed my hunch about this guy. So does BA.

17. Kevin Comer /RHP - Possibly under-rated in the shadow of Norris, this ranking a testament to the depth.

18. Roberto Osuna /RHP - most don't yet fully appreciate how good he potentially is.

19. Asher Wojciechowski /RHP - Started and finished well around a mid-season stumble.

20. Chad Jenkins /RHP - in another system, might get more noise. but ceiling is limited.

21. Chris Hawkins /LF - defensively a LF, offensively just getting started.

22. Jacob Anderson /RF - another player who could take a big leap in the next year.

23. Dwight Smith, Jr. /OF - Might be better than I think. Being generous to compensate.

24. Moises Sierra /RF - I question his offensive ceiling, but sometimes the toolsy guy blows up.

25. Dicke Thon /SS - giving him a mulligan on the poor health year.

26. John Stilson /RHP - will be a major steal if he can stay healthy.

27. Christian Lopes /SS - may end up a 2B but I have a hunch about this guy.

28. Sean Nolin /LHP - took a big leap last year, now on the radar.

29. Joe Musgrove /RHP - I was initially cool to this guy but he's gotten some love in the off-season.

30. Joel Carreno /RHP - not to downplay him, but he'll be a reliever if he's a Jay, and there's only so much value in relief.

31. Mike McDade /1B -completely assuming the 2nd half was all about the bad knee

32. Wilmer Becarra /CF - based on how well he was regarded before the signing

33. Dawel Lugo /SS - similar to the reasoning above.

34. David Cooper /1B - gets NO love from observers, I can't buck ALL that opinion.

35. Kellen Sweeney /3B - reportedly the jays still love the guy, needs a healthy year.

36. Griffin Murphy /LHP - important for him to step up and maintain his place in a crowded field

37. Mark Biggs /RHP - considered a big "get" at that spot in the draft.

38. Mitchell Taylor /LHP - overshadowed by others, but had a very nice year.

39. Evan Crawford /LHP - Alex loves him, but as with Carreno, being a reliever suppresses value.

40. Jario Labourt /LHP - relatively under-the-radar signing, could pay off nicely.

41. Jeremy Gabryszwski /RHP - the draft choice I know the least about. But a 2nd rounder deserves respect.

42. Jesus Gonzalez /RF - another high profile Latin signing.

43. Tom Robson /RHP - has some developing to do, but there's upside there.

44. Yan Gomes /C - may never realize abilities in our system due to crowding. But he's got talent.

45. Manuel Cordova /RHP - one more in the July Latin haul.

46. Alan Farina /RHP - will spend the year recovering from TJS.

47. Tyler Ybarra /RHP - very dark horse, but don't forget him.

48. Santiago Nessey /C - value somewhat tied to whether he can stay at the position.

49. Anthony DeSclafani /RHP - some reports suggest he's more raw than other 2011 draftees.

50. Gabriel Cenas /3B - still very young, will take some time.

Now. Some of yall hook me up, m'kay?

Stupid Question

2012-01-31T01:19:00.002-05:00

I'm sure I'll be called an apologist in some quarters for this, but dude just pissed me off. in Monday nights State of the Franchise event, one of the questions from the floor went as follows:

Jonathan: "I would have bought a shirt tonight, but the name Fielder wasn't found up there so I'm, uh, a little disappointed. In all seriousness, my passion has turned to anger, i've been a long time supporter of the Jays, I can stand here tonight and basically say that I'm not sure I'm going to be back next year as a fan. Because I am disappointed, I would have expected some on-field betterment of this season's club and if it wasn't for Fielder, I don't see why Carlos Beltran wasn't signed to back up Jose Bautista in the lineup. It was only a two year deal at 12 million dollars per, not a lot of money, right? ... You harped on making a bunch of trades and not going the free agent route - I think I've only seen one trade. We've seen the bullpen betterment but where's the young starters? I mean, uh, uh, we've seen Washington add a young starter, we've seen Cincinnati add a young starter, Boston went out and got Andrew Bailey and we...uh...I think we're in the #2 position for our minor league system right now and if we do have all this talent, why aren't we seeing the trades? Where are the guys?"

Jonathan, with all due respect, you're a dumb ass. Or at least you ask dumb ass questions.

Alex and Buck said "good questions" - Bullshit. they were just being nice to you because they have to.

let's break it down:

"I don't see why Carlos Beltran wasn't signed"

Because Beltran gets a say. You can't just go out and pluck a guy like drafting a minor leaguer.

"I think I've only seen one trade."

This off-season, sure. It's easy to say "make a deal" without being specific or realistic. Alex has said he wants to add premium talent when he trades. He did so with Lawrie, he did so with Excobar, with Rasmus, with Morrow, and with Santos. But there's not a premium talent available every week or every month. As good as he is, Alex can't simply call up Seattle and say some magic words and make them hand over Felix. Even Pineda went for a guy who was the equivilant of our dealing Lawrie - is THAT the trade you can't wait for?

"but where's the young starters?"

ON OUR TEAM! Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, Cecil? Hutchison and McGuire on the cusp. sure, lust after Gio Gonzalez and Matt Latos - but a roughly equivilant set of Blue Jays to the package that got Latos would be d'Arnaud, Snider, and Drabek. Still interested?

I get the real sense that there's a "grass is greener" narrative. Someone else's young starter is better than our young starter, their young SS is better than our young SS, whatever it is -" go out and bring us fresh meat." Sometimes YOUR young player is the guy you want.

"Boston went out and got Andrew Bailey"

THIS is the one that broke down my resistance and convinced me to write. The Jays traded for a closer two, one who's under team control for SIX more years, while Bailey will be out there looking for the 8 figure contract in TWO years. Our guy pitched for less than 30 innings in the minors, and has only two years in the majors yet he was every bit as good as Bailey (who pitched ~300 innings in the minors) last year. We got the better guy and made the better deal! And what does this have to do with starters?

"why aren't we seeing the trades?"

Basically this is just "trade for the sake of trading" Bring us fresh meat. The reality is that there wasn't a smart deal that really made the team better out there. Six of the nine positions in the field don't need to have a bright young talent added because one of them is Bautista and the other five HAVE a bright young talent (or two). There was no bright young talent at 2B to be had, and the best 1B who was dealt was Anthony Rizzo, who's not considered really a premium guy. The bullpen is packed out with talent, and there are more young pitching that we have spots for. Let's say you go out and deal for Gio Gonzalez and have to trade Henderson Alvarez to get him - is that smart? how much better will Gonzalez be than Alvarez over the next five years? I'll wager he won't be, at all. And that's not counting the other guys you'd have to put into the deal.

Basically, I'm glad Jonathan isn't our GM.

Starry eyed Optimism

2012-01-29T19:13:00.003-05:00

This is going to be sort of a rambling, chain-of-thought post, not my highest grammatical achievement. Still, it's on my mind.

I know people will point and laugh, I'm used to it, but here's what I keep coming back to - what might we expect from the Jays next year compared to what was successful in other cities last year? Comparisons are always tricky but still . . . consider this.

I matched up the potential starters as well as i could where direct comparisons were not possible, and the figures cited are xFIP

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Front part of rotation RHP -

Shields (age 30) - 3.25 xFIP: His career year, coming off his worst year. The two combined look much more like his career figures except the K's got some higher.

Morrow (27) - 3.53: Has about .4 run higher career ERA, but more stuff, a higher ceiling, and he's 3 years younger. I see no reason why Morrow couldn't take a similar step forward in 2012 as Sheilds did in '11. No one would have penciled Sheilds in for a sub-3 ERA a year ago.

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Front part of the rotation LHP-

Price (26) - 3.32: actually pitched better in '11 than in '10 even though ERA went up. True front of rotation high ceiling talent. Can only get better.

Romero (27) - 3.80: As Shields is to Morrow, so Romero is to Price. Producing similar results, but with noticeably less raw stuff and upside.

Taken as a set, though, there's little difference between the talent and ability - and potential for producing similar results - between their set and ours, in my opinion.

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Oldest pitcher among those remaining-

Neimann - (29) 3.73: Basically average guy (Jesse Listch has a better career ERA+)

McGowan - (30) 4.38: Injury prone is an understatement, but virtually legendary ability before the injury and Jays people say he's pretty much all the way back. No way to know how long he will last but EVERY reason to think that while he's out there he's noticeable better than Neimann.

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Similar age-

Hellickson - (25) 4.72

Cecil - (25) 4.43 [4.03 in 2010]

This is the comparison that a lot of you will scoff at. But Cecil, even in his "bad" year had a better FIP and xFIP than Hellickson, has a slightly better BB/9 and also a better K/9. Cecil had a worse H/9, which cost him last year when he got the ball up, but on actual results they are very close - far more so than the ERA would suggest. Now, the flip side is that Hellickson comes with better scouting reports and shinier clippings than Cecil ever had. One may safely assume he has more stuff and a higher ceiling. but if we pair these last two sets, as we did the first two, it's arguable that on stuff, McGowan exceeds Neimann to a similar degree that Hellickson exceeds Cecil.

The slight edge going to the Rays because one can't assume McGowan can last all year. But assuming health, as with the 1-2 set, the outcome in '12 should display a very marginal difference between their two and our two.

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Young and unproven:

Moore - (23) ??

Alvarez - (22) 3.38

Moore is considered the best pitching prospect in the game, Alvarez is quite good but he doesn't carry THAT reputation. The only question here is whether Moore will pitch up to his reputation in the first year. BUT let's remember that the premise here is not what will happen next year, but what happened last year. Moore did not significantly contribute to the Rays record last year. The fifth busiest starter for the Rays in 2011 was Wade Davis. while one has to acknowledge the potential that Moore will out-preform Alvarez, one also has to expect Alvarez will be better than Davis was last year.

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sixth option-

Davis - 4.82

Drabek - 5.13

One might argue similar potential as a prospect, they were similarly ranked in the minors, but Drabek has the edge in age (2 years) and Davis has the edge in not having the difficulties Drabek had in his first year. But taking the 2011 results as a reference, it's not crazy to suggest Drabek could rebound to the level Davis produced, if he were in the rotation.

Ultimately, I have no answer for Matt Moore if he pitches up to his press, but Price was every bit as highly regarded and he was just league average in his rookie year so it obviously can happen. Otherwise, where is this vast gap between the Rays staff and the Jays? I think it's quite overstated.

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Jumping to the bullpen, let's look at the ERA and xFIP of the Rays' relievers who are still on the team:

Farnsworth - 2.18 / 3.23

Peralta - 2.93 / 3.88

Ramos - 3.92 / 4.85

Howell - 6.16 / 4.35

Gomes - 2.92 / 4.51

Russell - 3.03 / 5.50

McGee - 4.50 / 4.35

compared to:

Santos - 3.55 / 2.69

Cordero - 2.45 / 4.14

Oliver - 2.29 / 3.24

Frasor - 2.98 / 3.94

Janssen - 2.26 / 3.04

Villianueva - 4.04 / 4.48

Perez - 5.12 / 3.79

Acknowledging that McGee has the potential to get dramatically better, I still contend the latter set is superior to the former. And the idea that cumulatively they could match or exceed what the Rays got in relief last year is easy to accept.

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Now the offense:

Catcher - the Rays are going with the 37 year old guy who's career OPS+ going into 2011 was 62. The Jays are going with the guy who, for all his offensive flaws, posted a 90 as a rookie (and who's not an "out of left field" fluke like Jaso was). I like our chances of getting better results in 2012, but on the point of whether this Jays team can do what the 2011 Rays did statistically, JP was way better than Shoppach was. Here's the collective line JP and Jeff have to best:

.194 - .274 - .333 - .607 - I'm going to say that's in the bag.

First - Adam Lind brings a 106 into the season, which seems short of matching Kotchman's 128 last year. Except when you consider that Kotchman brought a career mark of 91 into last season. CAN Lind throw up an OPS better than .800 this year? Sure he can. Will he? Who the heck knows. Here's the cumulative like for 1B for the '11 Rays:

.288 - .357 - .388 - .745 - Move 50 points from OBP to SLG (I know that the higher math says one is more important than the other) and there is no reason at all Lind can't be expected to do that well, and likely better.

Second Base - Ben Zobrist put up a 132 last year, which is better than Johnson's career mark. I'm not going to pretend Johnson can do anything like that this year. However, Zobrist wasn't the only fellow playing 2B. Sean Rodriguez spent some time there too, and that drug the cumulative line down to something more reasonable:

.262 - .343 - .451 - .793 - now go look at Kelly Johnson's career line.

Shortstop - the combination of Ried Brignac (abysmal) and Sean Rodriguez (average) fell far short of what Yunel can reasonably be expected to do. In fact, the combined offense of TB shortstops in '11 is a line John McDonald could challenge:

.193 - .256 - .282 - .539

Third - Longoria wasn't himself for most of the year, but it's the year he had in the season in question and Lawrie is certainly capable of matching it's value. Certainly he MIGHT regress, but I'm speaking here of reasonable optimism. it's not unreasonable to suggest lawrie could throw up an .850 OPS. I think Lawrie is our Longoria. and of course, Longoria was hurt for the first month or so of the season, so the cumulative production at 3B for the season was an easier bar for Our Hero to reach:

.231 - .335 - .466 - .801 - anyone NOT want the over on that?

Right - Matt Joyce had a fine little year, but Jose ran-roughshod over it, more than enough so to make up for any minor negative elsewhere.

.261 - .338 - .436 - .774

Center - B.J. Upton's OPS was .759, in 2010 Rasmus' OPS was exactly 100 points higher. No one can say for sure he WILL return to those levels but he certainly CAN.

.257 - .341 - .440 - .781 - I, for one, am very confident Rasmus will out-do that line.

Left - yes, the future is Jennings, and it's an open question whether snider will step up and contest him on who is better (I think he's at least his equal in talent, but whether he can overcome the effects of having been rushed...) BUT this comparison is with last years Rays, for whom the primary FL was good old Sam Fuld, who finished the year with a .673 OPS. Thames can easily beat that, let alone Snider.

.241 - .313 - .406 - .720 - not a high bar to clear.

DH - EE already did better in 2011 as a DH than Damon did for the Rays.

.260 - .320 . 424 - .744

The 2012 Jays are not just better than the 2011 Rays offensively, they are WAY better. The counter argument being that the team totals for the 2011 jays are not much higher, but this is a different team: Hill is gone, Lawrie and Rasmus will be with them all year, and since I'm arguing "possible" and not "guaranteed" - it's reasonably possible snider busts out and not inconceivable that Lind rebounds somewhat.

I think the bullpen, if, on average, they pitch to their abilities, is clearly better.

Which brings us right back around to the rotation.

The Blue Jays were one full run (of ERA) behind the Rays in this department in 2011, and not even I would deny they have some stepping up to do. But I, for one, think they are capable of it. That doesn't necessarily imply that they will be better than the Rays in 2012. A full season of Jennings and Moore make potentially a great difference, as does a rebound from Longoria and the return of Carlos Pena (though I'm not as impressed with Pena as many are). I wouldn't be terribly shocked if both teams passed the Red Sox, however. I expect all three teams to land somewhere between 87 and 92 wins and that could be in virtually any order (and the best of those could be 8-10 games behind the Yankees).

The Wisdom of the Ages

2012-01-24T02:36:00.002-05:00

By now you know, of course (when do I ever actually break news?) , about the two items of news (and a couple of odd rumors to boot) originating out of Jays-land on Monday. on the two items of news, I don't think I could express my view any better than Richard Griffin(!) did here.

Omar Vizquel will be 45 this year, and last year he saw his hitting drop to the levels occupied for years by his defensive protege, John McDonald. contrary to the popular assumption, it's not completely inconceivable he could rebound a little from that to the mid-to-high .600's (OPS) range he lived at for the previous two years. In 2010 he played in 2/3 of the White Sox games and was a reasonably respectable hitter for an aging SS (.673) but it's too bad for the Sox he was actually playing 3B most of the time. in fact, he's not been used exclusively at SS since 2008.

Still, all he has to do is be better than Mike McCoy and Luis Valbuena and that seems likely. I'd be mildly surprised if he didn't make the team. To repeat Grif's opinion, in part, and elaborate a bit, the value goes like this:

*Vizquel will surely be an on-field personal instructor for Adeiny Hechevarria. Hech needs no schooling in terms of ability to field the position, but Vizquel can provide valuable expertise in the intricacies of playing the position with refinement at the major league level, as well as general conduct and expectations, and do so in Hech's own language and comfort zone.

*Vizquel can also serve as (though it's less required) a solid mentor (alongside Jose Bautista) for Yunel Escobar. one of the thinks Esco is sometimes accused of is being a tiny bit lackadaisical in certain spots such as base-running. if Vizquel can add some refinement to Esco's already impressive game, that pays off down the line.

* unless he's degraded significantly, Vizquel can be at least as competent as the other guys as a reserve/emergency SS and also provide depth at 2B and 3B. I've said all along I didn't se the jays entrusting that critical spot to either of the in-house options.

*unmentioned elsewhere, to my knowledge - don't underestimate the influence Vizquel can and will have on Brett Lawrie. Lawrie has shown himself to be highly respectful of the history of the game and veteran wisdom, Vizquel has played enough 3B and enough on that side of the infield to provide invaluable insight that Lawrie can't get from any other player on the team (even Bautista). This will serve to refine both his defense (where Butter, is, of course, always at work) and his growth as a major league player in general.

*if he, for some reason, doesn't make the cut, he will have the opportunity to seek employment elsewhere, but if the jays somehow manage to convince him to accept assignment to Vegas then he will be in essence an extra coach and continue to school Adeiny.

*finally, the Jays are establishing a professional relationship which may well lead to an offer of a coaching position in the organization if Vizquel concludes there's no major league opportunity out there.

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the other bit of news is the pending announcement of a 3+! deal for Brandon Morrow. Shi Davidi tweets that the expectation is that the deal will be worth ~$20mi over 3 years, with a $10 mil option (which has a $1 mil buyout). This has been the expectation here and elswhere since this time last year, and it gives the Jays control over Morrow beyond the two seasons he had left before free agency.

The expectation here is that the deal is likely structured along the lines of 4-6-10 and, in my opinion, this will be money incredibly well spent. i wrote on these pages last year that i feel Morrow is a Cy Young contender in waiting, with all due respect to Romero he's the most gifted starter on the staff, and has the potential to explode into a true ace-type #1. if i'm right, this will be yet another deal which makes Alex look very very good. I'f I'm wrong, it's still true that worse pitchers are making more money.

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The rumors suggest the Jays are in talks with the Rangers regarding Koji Uehara. Now I'm of the opinion that the current bullpen is flush with solid options and there's little need for an addition, but Uehara is very very good (the tiny tiny playoff sample notwithstanding) and would be an obvious exception to that stand, assuming the price is not ridiculous. One would have to assume that such a deal would result in the exit of some player currently ticket to the bullpen since there's no real flexibility to send anyone down. My guess would be someone who still has work for Jesse Litsch as a starter, likely in the NL.

Another rumor, much less believable, connects the Jays to erstwhile closer Francisco Cordero. I simply don't see this being possibly true. Cordero has value, but it muddies the established closer meme that seems important to the Jays, and seems unlikely to be accomplished for a reasonable price given there are other suitors.

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No word yet on a deal for Casey Janssen, but it says here (see what I did there?) that we'll soon be noting a deal that's either 1 or 2 years plus an option before the end of the month. Per Griffin, the Jays want the longer-terms deals to buy up at least one year of free agency, and of course Alex is on record as not negotiating for one year after the arb offers are announced. But the offered figures have such a clean and easy middle ground that it's easy to see how such a deal would work. Something like 2/3.5/4.5 option with a .5 buyout would be reasonable.

Hope Springs Eternal

2012-01-17T00:27:00.005-05:00

As you rise from your bed in the morning it will be 34 days until pitchers and catchers report. One of the magical things about the sport is not only that fans collectively hope that this is "the" year when their team puts it all together, but many teams have the individual story of hope, the singular narrative which makes you root not just for the team, but for the human being filling a particular uniform. Last year, it was Dustin McGowan (and in some ways, still is, because you want to see him get back to the results he was having before, not just be on the roster) and to a lesser extent, Adam Loewen.

This year, the story with the most potential for magic is a guy who, even if everything breaks right, likely won't wear a Blue Jay uniform in a real game before September at the earliest, a player who's been on the sidelines long enough that most fans have forgotten he's even in the system. I speak of the man who still holds ambitions of being the first native of New Zealand to play in the major leagues: Scott Campbell.

In his first three years in the Jays system, Campbell, who's the subject of a video feature by a TV outlet in his home country which you can view here, showed steady improvement. Building on an excellent eye at the plate (he walked more than he struck out each year), he added solid doubles power with the potential for more and worked to improve his fielding at 2B. In 2009 the team shifted him to 3B, partly as a function of where the team had, and didn't have, minor league depth. But Campbell was plagued by injuries which cost him about 1/3 of the season in all. Between the injury and the positional shift, Campbell plateaued in his development.

But the injury issues were just beginning, as a chronic hip condition sidelined him for every bit of the last two seasons. A year ago, as you can see in this video, Campbell had high expectations of getting back on the field, but it was not to be. Again this spring, knowing he's probably facing his last chance, he will try again. As of this writing, the Blue Jays control 2B Kelly Johnson for one more year. I, for one, would feel pretty warm and fuzzy of Scott Campbell won that job next spring. Baseball might indeed be about winning ball games and not sentimental emotion, but I don't think we'd enjoy the former quite as much if we didn't occasionally get a dose of the latter.

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Also worth your notice is Shi Davidi's piece on up-and-comer Drew Hutchison, with a bit of background (which I've mentioned in passing in the past) on why a guy so good was still available in the 15th round.

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Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and players to exchange arbitration offers, and the Blue jays still have five players with terms unannounced. As is well known, the Jays almost never go to arbitration (it's been 15 years) and Alex has a firm policy against negotiating 1 year deals after figures have been exchanged. So expect announcements on the deals early tomorrow, and if someone isn't announced (Morrow? Janssen?) place your bets on the potential for a long term deal to be in the works.

For the record, I missed badly on Rasmus - hope I do better on the rest.

Arbitration Station

2012-01-04T04:49:00.003-05:00

Two weeks from now the deadline will have passed for players and teams to have submitted figures for arbitration. As we learned in 2011, Alex Anthopoulos does not negotiate one year deals after figures have been submitted, so one may safely assume a high likelihood that all Blue Jays arbitration eligible players will be signed by then and we will know within les than a million what the payroll cost for the current roster will be.

It is my custom to try to predict what the agreed upon deals will be, and i've gotten pretty good at it. Here are m guesses for 2012 (note I have a predilection for rounding the numbers to no more than one decimal place, while the agreements are often not so well rounded):

Kelly Johnson: Made $5.85 in 2011, accepted the Blue Jays offer of arbitration. Anticipated 2012 salary - $6 mil

Brandon Morrow: $2.3 in 2011, 2nd year of arbitration eligibility. Anticipated salary - $5 mil

Carlos Villanueva: $1.415, 3rd year. Anticipated - $2.4 mil

Casey Janssen: $1.095, 3rd year. Anticipated - $2.23 mil (strong possibility of multi-year deal here)

Ben Francisco: $1.175, second year of arbitration. Anticipated - $1.5 mil

Colby Rasmus: $0.443, first arbitration year. Anticipated - $1.43 mil

I wouldn't be shocked if Morrow was negotiated with on an extension, I'm uncertain whether he'd be willing to sign one at this point (as opposed to holding out for a breakthrough season first)

That's a total of $18.56 and in the past, my estimates were about 10-12% too low (in the aggregate). so that could go some $2 mil higher but we're in the general neighborhood.

Using my anticipated results, the current salary projection stands at approx $72.7 mil

EDIT: Oliver's contract, revealed today, makes it $76.7

It's all good

2012-01-03T02:07:00.002-05:00

So, Frasor is back. I seem to recall someone suggesting that possibility a couple of times last month (and also the day after he was traded away) but i can't quite put my finger on it.

Oh well, anyway - so with him and the imminent oliver signing, what do we have? we have a pretty damned good idea what the opening day bullpen will look like, with only potential movement in the rotation creating any doubt (barring stunning ST failure).

first, briefly, on the rotation: I've become more and more convinced that unless there's a Ninja Trade, the team WON'T acquire a high profile SP before the season starts. i'm positive we won't seen any Paul Maholm types drug in to fill out the bottom of the rotation, and the top end guys are wildly too expensive. If AA could convince a rival GM to do something completely nuts for a young guy (like Michael Pineda just to name a name) then yeah but otherwise, we're set.

Now, what we are set with looks like this:

(Ignore rotation positions, these are listed in order of most likely to be in the rotation on opening day)

Romero

Morrow

McGowan

Alvarez/Cecil

Drabek

If Drabek makes the rotation, he will either push Cecil to the 'pen, or Alvarez back to the minors (pretty unlikely). the only other reasonable alternative is McGowan going to the bullpen. Which is to say you have a non-zero chance that one of Cecil or McGowan displaces someone currently ticketed to the bullpen.

If there is a rash of injuries or failures in that group, Villianueva, Listch, Carreno and Perez (in that order) stand in line to sub early on. McGuire, Jenkins and Hutch are a few months away at best.

Now, with that caveat explained...

1. Santos - Closer. Full stop.

2. Frasor - RHSU on any day he's physically available and needed.

3. Oliver - LHSU on any day he's physically available and needed

4. Janssen - 7th inning pivot man, on any day he's available and needed

that's the heartbeat of the bullpen.

5 & 6. Villianueva and Listch - both capable of multiple innings, both capable of stepping up when some of the above are over-worked. Both out of options.

7. Perez - LOOGY first but capable of more, also out of options.

the lack of options on the lesser guys here means we pretty much know who the seven are unless something happens. if a starter falls to the bullpen, then things get interesting as to how they manage the roster vis-a-vi the option issue. which most likely means that even if both pitch real well in ST, one of Alvarez or Drabek will go down rather than the team lose a valuable asset on the waiver wire.

Bullpen depth looks like this:

1. Joel Carreno - starts in the minors, first call to the pen.

2. Chad Beck - based on raves last year, has a slight edge on rest of the field.

3. Andrew Carpenter - intriguing rations once he shifted to the 'pen

4. Jesse Chavez - good control in AAA, disappears in the majors

5. Trystan Magnuson - respectable in high minors

(also Aaron Laffey, Jim Hoey, Danny Farquhar, Scott Richomond, Jerry Gil)

But, again, it takes injury or disastrous work to get any of these guys in the door (although

Carreno could probably do fine work from day one if there was an opening).

I'm prepared to stipulate the entire pitching staff if you can tell me what Drabek and Alvarez will do in ST.

The other side of the roster is pretty packed out too, as it stands - though I think we need a better middle infield reserve than Mike McCoy - but that's a discussion for another day.

Survey Time

2011-12-27T22:38:00.002-05:00

A couple of quick questions, which I hope get more replies than the usual post or else I won't learn much.

1. If you could buy a 2012 Blue Jays pre-season preview e-book - say something on the order of 4-6,000 words - for something less than $5 sometime in the first half of march - would you? and do you think your fellow jays fans would?

This would have considerably more depth to it than the typical blog material.

2. In conjunction with that, if it happens, I'm considering a name change for this blog - I'm assuming no one has a particular attachment to the current name so if I'm wrong about that, now's the time to speak up!

The Trade Market

2011-12-23T23:05:00.002-05:00

So, it seems clear at this point that Alex Anthopoulos is committed to improving the team through trade if possible rather than free agency. I'll note for the record the free agents options, if any, but the purpose of this post is to review the reasonable options to fill his stated goals via the trade route (with very little if any speculation about who might be traded in return as that gets very complex very quickly)

Alex has stated three things he'd like to do - strengthen the late-game bullpen options, look for a early-to-mid rotation starter, and try to find a middle of the order bat. I'll take these in reverse order for reasons that shall become apparent.

Middle of the order Bat:

A quick review of the roster construction makes it apparent that the only places to add a significant bat are, in order: first Base, DH, and LF

Ranking by OPS all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances who could reasonably be described as playing one of those positions, filtering out players we already have and players who are unavailable either because of prohibitive contracts or circumstances (such as being 5 & 10 players) or because of their value to the team (IMO) this is what I come up with (players with an OPS over .800 as befits a supposed "big bat"):

Mike Morse - his 2011 was an incredible outlier from the rest of his career. Although to be fair he showed some signs in 2010 in half as many plate appearances. Something is amiss because the Nationals GM called Adam LaRoche the presumptive 2012 first baseman, it may mean Morse sucks on defense. If true, one wonders if there's any place on the field they CAN hide him. He came essentially out of nowhere at 28, but that's a phenomena the Jays are not unacquainted with. Dude is 6'5" and 230, how it is he broke in as a SS I'll never know. If he can continue to hit like he has the last couple of years, he'd be conceivably a better DH than EE and a better (offensive) 1B than Lind if Lind doesn't rebound to his peak form. The Nats need outfield help.

Carlos Quintin - Had his career year, so far, at 25 and his three seasons since have been much less impressive. He has an .815 OPS over that span and frankly that's not much better than what one might reasonably expect of the in-house options. He'd have to be pretty cheap for me to be interested.

Seth Smith - pronounced home/road splits over his career.

Billy Butler - arguably best is yet to come, and has an .844 OPS over last three seasons. Only has 2 years of control left and will be trending towards costly to retain, but a legitimate target if the Royals think DH is easier to fill than the gaps in their rotation. Price uncertain.

Andrew McCutchen - Pirates have said they will listen, but will be wildly expensive i think. Might set up CF conflict.

I'm going to say McCutchen is too expensive and Quintin and smith are unimpressive. Either Morse or Butler would be intriguing, and Butler would better suit the time frame in terms of age if he can be reasonably extended. One might imagine the Royals would be interested in taking EE to stop-gap the DH position, or maybe they would see something of value in Cooper? Additionally they would surely be receiving a couple of interesting prospect and a filler or two. I'd try to start with Jimenez and see if they liked Jenkins, I wouldn't do the top shelf guys for a DH unless I thought he had David Ortiz ability.

Potential free agents that someone might see attractive (none for me thanks) are JD Drew, Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Luke Scott, Andruw Jones or Wilson Betimit.

Top-of-rotation SP:

(ranked by 2011 ERA)

James Shields - in division, won't happen.

Matt Cain - some speculate the Giants can't pay him and Lincicum too, but he's a free agent in one year which violate's Alex's "years of control"qualification. would be wildly expensive. Gose would have to be in the deal along with 2 or 3 other really good players, which I can't see doing for potentially just one season.

Matt Garza - everyone seems to recognize him as the most likely candidate, personally I'd liked the idea much better if we could have been trying to get him and Marshall in a package. There's more to like here but I'm not sure you sell the Cubs on lower level prospects which AA seems to be focused on dealing. Could you do it without giving up Gose or d'Arnaud? Because I'm thinking Alex wouldn't pay that price.

Brandon McCarthy - Oakland is clearing the decks, why not McCarthy too? Here again you are only getting one season, but the price should be much more affordable. Thing is, his 25 starts and 170 IP last year were career highs, which might mean he's made of glass but also might mean he hasn't had a chance to peak yet. Like Gio, his numbers were much more middle-of-the-pack away from that great home park and I'm not sure he's much if any better than the in-house options.

Felix Hernandez - I can't imagine he's actually available at any price.

Wandy Rodriguez - Would AA really commit to $36 million over the next two seasons? For age 33-35 years? My sources say no. if he wanted to do that he could just go on and sign Roy Oswalt to a deal just like it. and get a better value IMO, even before one considers the cost in prospects.

Zach Grienke - probably not available (why would they sign Ramirez if they are tearing it down) and would be very expensive in prospects for one year of service before free agency. An extension would be a massive contract.

IMO, the only POSSIBLE deal here, realistically, is Garza, and that only if Theo & Co. can be persuaded by a package of players below AA ball. Potential FA signings include Oswalt, Rich Harden, Edwin Jackason or Hiroki Kuroda.

Late Inning Relievers :

(grouped by team)

Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton - White Sox are shuffling the deck, Kenny Williams has already hooked up with AA twice on significant deals, Jays really need a late inning lefty (Thornton). Thornton is controlable for three years with the downside that the contract is a tad high and it's his age 35-37 seasons. Effectiveness slipped some in 2011 after three dominant years - start of a decline, or a blip? $12 mil is a lot for them to commit if they are not sure of the answer to that. Crain is signed for two more (age 30-31) at $4.5 each year which is certainly manageable. not sure the cost to get both, or the practicality of essentially buying the whole back-end of the White Sox 'pen, but if you got them both together it would theoretically solve the issue in one deal. (You could also look at bringing back Jason Frasor if better options failed)

Joakim Soria - (deserves separate listing) would set up a re-run of "this is our closer until we get another closer" routine from last year, but would theoretically set up a heck of an 8th/9th combo. Three years of control on the contract at manageable costs. Has turned down impressive offers before. Logically you wouldn't trade a position prospect like d'Arnaud or Gose for ANY reliever, but it might cost that. Rumor has it they like Rasmus but despite Colby's lost year, I'd be scared to death to trade a premium CF upside for a reliever, even a closer. And i doubt they would sweeten their end of the deal.

Greg Holland, Blake Wood, Tim Collins - Okay, Collins . . . I have no reason to think he's available, but given my emotional attachment I figure why not mention him? Holland has been mentioned as a potential target for the Jays, and Wood is another guy in a suddenly deep 'pen.

The royals had six good relievers last year and have added two free agent signings this off-season. someone will get pushed out. and while it's good to have depth, it also makes it possible the shop the guy or guys who're being underused. All these guys are pre-arb, cheap, and have years of control left.

Andrew Bailey - Very expensive, you'd be paying closer premium when you already have a closer (as with Soria above) - if you knew you were getting the guy from his rookie year . . . but are you? Still the very low walk rate is attractive. The very high asking price not so much.

Grant Balfour - No way Oakland hangs on to this guy, and he's much more affordable (in theory) prospect wise than Bailey. He'd fit right in to the back of the Jays 'pen.

Jeremy Affeldt - SF was rumored to be listening to offers for him in a cost cutting effort, would be the ideal 8th inning LH if you want a veteran back there. Can't pay too much for just one year though.

Sergio Romo - no reports that he's available, but would look very good in a Jays uniform.

Carlos Marmol - Cubs are rumored to be moving every valuable asset. Marmol has value but that walk rate worries me more than a little, even with all the strikeouts. it's trending in the right direction, but do you want to gamble that both he and Santos keep getting better in that department? Depends on the price in prospects I imagine.

There's enough fluidity in this market that I'd hate to make a prediction - but I'd be kinda surprised if one of these guys didn't end up on the Blue Jays roster by spring. Potential free agent alternatives include LH Mike Gonzalez, Darren Oliver and Damaso Marte, and RH David Ardsma, Taylor Buchholz (though not a proven late inning guy, his ratios were pretty good), Juan Cruz, and Dan Wheeler.

Thoughts?

I'm Over Yu

2011-12-20T00:32:00.003-05:00

So, there's that then.

It will be interesting when word comes out how much the jays bid on Darvish. The report indicates that the Ranger's winning bid was $51.7 million. The amount of the jays bid will tell us much about the whole thesis that they were willing to make an exception to”they plan” for a special player. One thing is for sure, you should make NO mistake about this: neither Prince Fielder or Carlos Beltran will be wearing a Blue Jays uniform in 2012.

Just to go on the record – any narrative riffing on “Rogers is too cheap to play with the big boys” is under-informed until we find out what the Blue Jays bid actually was (assuming it leaks out). If they bid $49m it means something completely different than if they bid $19m.

There does, however, remain a distinct possibility that there is a big trade or two yet to be made. While it's true that the team has mentioned the need to acquire a big middle of the order bat, very very few of the hitters who'd be thus described are available (by my estimation, among qualifying hitters who were .825+ in OPS in 2011, only Paul Kenerko might be available) but Alex is hardly predictable. On the other hand, there are a number of candidates which might be targeted under the category of “mid-to-upper rotation starter” although personally, there are very few of these guys I'd pay the price for if it were me – I list them only to be complete.

1.Felix Hernandez – not reportedly available, but between the Angels and Rangers recent upgrades, the M's are insane if they believe they can be competitive within the years of control they have on king Felix. Unless they have made up their minds to pay nay price to extend him, then the smart play is to reap the biggest haul ever to move him. Of course, if that buyer is Toronto then they have to believe that they will be in the hunt within the next three years as well, because the price will be exceedingly high. Start with d'Arnaud and one of the CF prospects (Gose or Marisnick) and throw in ant least two of the young stud pitcher plus a couple of more marginal guys. Think something like d'Arnaud/Gose/Hutchson/Nicolino/Jenkins.
2.James Shields – simply won't be dealt in-division.
3.Gio Gonzalez – control issues are worrisome, price said to be exorbitant. Four years of control left. Probably the most likely target on this list.
4.Matt Garza – Two years of control means more manageable price, but less likelihood he fits the long term plan. If you could get Sean Marshall in the deal with him, this gets more interesting.
5.Wandy Rodriguez – not a fan of the idea, much older than the others and not a cheap contract.
6.John Danks – only one year of control is big negative.

The thing is, the more I look at that list, the more I like the guys we've got. The only deal I'd enthusiastically make her is for Felix. As for the rest, I'd be very happy to send out a rotation of -

Romero
McGowan
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
(with Drabek, McGuire, and Hutchison on the farm, and Villianueva, Litsch, Carreno and Perez for emergencies) and wait and see if they need to upgrade in July.

Stick to the plan, IMO. Richard Griffin tweeted the Jays NEED to send this money on a pitcher like those listed above, and Beltran. I couldn't disagree more. Darvish was the exception that proves the rule – NOT an indication there's $50m lying around that you can spend like it's shore leave. Besides, if you are wrong about the internal options, just look at this list of pitchers, all free agents a year from now.

Cole Hamels
Zach Grienke
Matt Cain
Francisco Liriano

Am I disappointed? Oh hell yeah. I'll be more so if word comes out the Jays' bid wasn't serious. But I'm not crying. The Plan continues, the future is bright. It's just not going to come to fruition in 2012.
------------------------------

On another note, Baseball America released their Blue Jays Top 10 prospects list today, it looks like this:
(number in parenthesis reflects my ranking)

1. Travis d'Arnaud (1)
2. Anthony Gose (3)
3. Jake Marisnick (2)
4. Daniel Norris (8)
5. Justin Nicolino (7)
6. Aaron Sanchez (9)
7. Noah Syndergaard (6)
8. Deck McGuire (11)
9. Drew Hutchison (4)
10. Asher Wojciechowski (20)

The obvious difference is Woj, who I really do like by the way, it's a depth thing. It's kind of remarkable to see seven consecutive pitching prospects in the Top 10. In the post-list chat, it was revealed that:

*Nestor Molina wouldn't have made the top 10 if he were still in the organization - that's a big difference from me, I had him tied for 4th.

*There are indeed good reports on the improvement in Hech's bat, but more data is needed.

*Sanchez's control improved after the promotion to Vancouver (I was impressed they still ranked him slightly ahead of Syndergaard)

When someone lets me know what the Top 30 looked like, I'll pass that along as well.

Looking at the system reminds us of the most important thing to remember tonight - look FORWARD, not back.

Ode to Yu!

2011-12-16T01:42:00.005-05:00

Yu Darvish, along with being a very talented ballplayer, a very sexy man, and the darling of two whole countries, is also the man who lost a thousand twitter puns.

In that spirit, a musical interlude (and you are an uncultured boob if I have to tell you "to the tune of..."

What we want, you've got
And it might be hard to handle
But like the flame that burns the candle
The candle feeds the flame
What we've got's a full stock of thoughts
and dreams that scatter
You pull them all together
And how, we can't explain - oh yeah
Well well Yu (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu) Yu make our dreams come true(
Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
Well well well Yu (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu) Yu make our dreams come true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
Well yeah.

On a night when Yank games become a screamer
They're not messin' with the dreamer
I can laugh it in their face
Twist and shout - they're out
And Boston they can't stand us
'Cause we ain't the way you found us
We'll never be the same - ah yeah!
Well 'Cause Yu (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu) Yu make our dreams come true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
Well well well Yu (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu) Yu make our dreams come true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
Well well well Yu (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu) Yu make our dreams come true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
oooh yeah
Listen to this!

We're done with the daydreams
Oh That sleepwalk should be over by now I know!
Ah Yu! Yu make-a our dreams come true" (Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)

I been waitin' for waitin' for you man, Yu make our dreams cone true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
I been waitin' for waitin' for you man, Yu make our dreams cone true
(Yu Yu Yu Yu Yu Y-uu)
I been waitin' for waitin' for, waitin' for waitin' for... (you make our dreams)

I could have done this basically without changing anything but the coda where the word "girl" pops up ...

And yes, I know, even if we got him there's still Brett Lawrie and a host of other players to be excited about - but none of those are pun machines!

fingers and toes crossed!!!!

Previewing the Second Half

2011-12-11T03:32:00.003-05:00

(pending proof-reading!)

While mathematically, the halfway point between the first day of the post-season and the day pitchers and catchers report (February 19!) is right around Christmas, for all intents and purposes the close of the Winter Meetings marks the beginning of the second half of the off-season. It's time then, as that week draws to a close, to asses the state of the Blue Jays and look ahead to what developments might ensue.

We'll have to speak in broad general terms because, of course, our NGM (Ninja GM) will certainly do something (probably everything) in a manner not even hinted at in my speculations, but it would take all the fun out of it (and kill what little traffic I get) if I conceded that i really have no idea what comes next, so I soldier on as best I can. The best way to anticipate potential moves is to look at still existing needs. also, lets note up front that Alex prefers trades to expensive free agents.

First, let's look at the line-up if tomorrow were February 19:

Catcher: JP Arencibia is locked in, Travis d'Arnaud is at minimum half a season away and almost surely won't be seen before September barring serious injury to JP. Jeff Mathis is locked in as the reserve, and while I fully expect the team to maneuver a situation in which he does not get the amount of money he made last year in arbitration, there's no reason to assume he won't be here.

First Base - Everything AA and John Farrell say about Adam Lind leads one to believe they are committed to bringing him back as the first baseman. That said, if there is a position that's ripe, among hitters, for a ninja move it's first. Prince Fielder is obviously out there, but unlikely to sign on terms the Jays would agree to. The only other really sensible candidate who might be an upgrade on Lind (depending of course on whether Lind does bounce back) is Josh Willingham. Personally, I don't expect a deal there. Looking around the league, there's not an obvious upgrade rumored to be available via trade either.

Second Base - Kelly Johnson is set. There's some possibility - Alex even hinted at it - that he might surprise us with a deal to add a "core piece" to use his terms, and if he can do so - think maybe Gordon Beckham - then you could see Johnson flipped to a team like the Rockies. There's every possibility the will go with Johnson though.

Shortstop - Yunel Escobar. Next question.

Third Base - Brett Lawrie. Next question

Right Field - Jose Bautista. Next question.

Center Field - Colby Rasmus. Next question.

Left Field - open competition between Travis Snider and Eric Thames. Snider is the more talented player, but if he loses he might be "change of scenery" before May, if Thames loses he will be the 4th outfielder and occasional DH, and a good one, or go back to AAA to wait.

DH - Edwin Encarnacion. The only obvious way to upgrade here is via an unexpected trade, or convincing Carlos Beltran to DH, which seems unlikely. If the Jays were tossing aside the future to play for 2012, they'd plug Beltran into LF and push aside the kids, but I don't think Alex will deviate from the long term plan.

On the bench: the aforementioned Mathis, the loser of Snider/Thames maybe (though possibly this person could be in AAA or traded), Raji Davis, an infielder (Vilbuena, McCoy, or some player yet to be acquired - nether of these is an impressive SS) and, for now, Mark Teahen although my guess is they eat his contract before April 1.

Turning to pitching, again, mostly assuming this is what we go to camp with-

AA and JF have both spoken often about needing a top of the rotation starter. I made the case in my previous post for Yu Darvish and he's the one guy known to be available who fits that bill. I don't believe the Jays will pay the exorbitant cost to obtain Gio Gonzalez and I don't think they should. Pretty much anyone I'd be willing to pay that price for isn't on the market. Certainly there's no free agent comparable to Darvish. Roy Oswalt comes closest, and if he would come to Toronto I'd be cool with him if we try and fail on Darvish.

Beyond additions -

#1 - Ricky Romero in a lock

#2 - Dustin McGowan by seniority, and by talent, but if they want to coddle his arm a bit they might slide him to the #5 just so they can skip him occasionally.

#3 - Brandon Morrow seems set here. if they did sign Darvish then Yu would be #2 and Morrow still fits at three.

#4 - Brett Cecil but with a tentative grasp. Farrell reports he's working out this winter and in MUCH better shape than this time last year and if so, may well come to camp and demand this spot. but he's also the guy in this group most likely to fit as a bullpen piece (probably a highly effective guy in the 8th) - if he stumbles and two kids show well, he might lose out.

#5 - Henderson Alvarez/Kyle Drabek- The former has the edge, and it's his spot to lose. but Drabek will have a chance to beat out someone , so if either Cecil or Alvarez stumble in the spring and Drabek looks resolved, then he could steal a spot for sure.

Other candidates depending on emergency need: Potential relievers Villianueva, Listch, Carreno, Perez and minor league prospects Hutchison and McGuire and maybe Jenkins. It's unlikely any of those guys will be used out of spring training except in highly unusual circumstances.

In short, the odds are that it's Darvish, or nothing here. the depth is sufficient that adding a middling guy would be unnecessary and Alex has publicly noted as much.

The bullpen is where it really gets interesting. Alex has openly mentioned he fully intends to add here, and particularly in 8th inning guys.

We know that Sergio Santos WILL close.

We know that Casey Janssen, Carlos Vilianueva, and Jesse Litsch are locks, barring injury, and that Luis Perez and Joel Carreno have an edge on all the other non-locks currently in the organization.

We can also surmise that an 8th inning lefty is a priority and that second to that would be an 8th inning RHP (Alex speaks fondly of having Janssen available in the seventh since he's effective against both left and right handed hitters.

So four established slots, two potential "gets" and the last spot will go to Perez (second lefty) if he doesn't throw it away. Barring Cecil moving in of course.

So what are the options? as free agents, the top of the list (such as it is) would be:

LHP - Mike Gonzalez, George Sherril, Damso Marte (if healthy) and Tsuyoshi Wada (if you can sell him on relief instead of starting)

RHP - there all pretty mediocre guys, frankly.

So you kinda have to turn to trades - this sort of thing is tricky to predict because Alex tends to surprise, but some names that have been mentioned include Jeremy Affeldt of the Giants (probably as good a choice as you will find), Sean Marshall of the Cubs, Greg Holland of the Royals (very good, pretty young, years of control), Tim Collins of the Royals (okay, only I am mentioning him - but if they are wiling to deal Holland, we could ask about Collins), Koji Uehara of the Rangers (no idea why there's talk but you have to like him), Matt Thornton of the White Sox (really, pretty much anyone on the White Sox - except Chris Sale - including Jason Frasor), and pretty much anyone in the A's 'pen - Grant Balfour would probably be a good target.

So in summation:

1. Take a run at Darvish

1a. Failing that look in on Oswalt or maybe Rich Harden

2. restock the bullpen likely via a series of trades.

3. find a reserve infielder who plays a good SS and handles the bat at least to McDonald levels

4. keep your eyes open for a chance to add a core player

5. pay attention to Fielder and Beltran until they are off the market just to be prepared for surprises.

That should do it!

Re-stating the case for Darvish

2011-12-09T04:31:00.002-05:00

I find myself compelled to address again the Yu Darvish speculation. Based on a number of comments and observations, particularly over the last week, several prominent members of the local Toronto media and apparently most fans have concluded that the team will not be serious players for Darvish, while national (American) media figures persist in listing the Jays among the obvious fits.

With typical Jays related negativism on full display, seemingly thousands of voices reacted to some off-the-cuff comments from Alex Anthopoulos about having "payroll parameters" to jump to the conclusion that the Jays were - as long expected! - defaulting back to the "Tampa Bay Model" (the clock is ticking until someone, likely Richard Griffin, invokes the word "Montreal") which is, in my estimation, a wild over-reaction. The logical implication, of course, of that reaction is to assume Darvish is too expensive for the poor pitiful Jays and their tightwad skinflint owners.

Nonsense I say.

Let's examine some of the things we've been told since Paul Beeston returned to leadership with the team:

1. The Jays are a major market team and can be expected to act like one

2. When the time is right, the Jays will be perfectly able to play in the same salary nieghborhood as the Red Sox (Say the $120-150 mil neighborhood).

3. Alex doesn't have a set payroll figure and if he thinks a specific signing or trade makes sense value-wise for the team, he can approach Beeston and make his case. If he succeeds the money will be there.

More recently we were told, from several sources:

1. the Blue Jays believe they need to add a front of the rotation starter to take the next step

2. the Jays believe they need to get more innings from their rotation

3. the Jays believe the cost of such a player as a free agent is far too high given you are getting a guy past his peak and in decline

4. the Jays believe obtaining such a player via trade is almost impossible (since such players are seldom traded) and the cost to the farm system would be exorbinant (Just today he mentioned the cost to deal for a 2B would be higher than he liked).

Still more recently we heard Alex comment, in the context of a rumor mill that had the jays as serious players for Prince Fielder and several others, that he did not have an unlimited budget and he had to work within "parameters" - a comment easily understood when he explained later that he was faced with agents coming to him and basically saying "since you have all this money, why are you not giving us some?"

There is no logical reason, when everything that's been said this week (not only by AA but by Beeston) is considered in it's logical context to assume the Jays have - as many have theorized - reacted to the new CBA by going into small-market mode. Nothing they said implies that, and it's out of touch with reality. A CBA which severely hamstrings the amount of money a team can spend on acquisition of amateur talent has pretty much nothing to do with how much a team spends on the major league payroll, if anything it makes it more likely that figure will go UP, not down.

It's true that the CBA phases out the revenue sharing money the Jays had been receiving, which if published estimates of the Jays cut of that pie are correct, mean a drop in that revenue stream of ~$7-8 million each year starting in 2013 through 2016. This is not a crushing loss and if the team wins, would easily be offset by increased revenues from other streams. It's most assuredly not enough to take a team which had anticipated spending $120m plus down into the $50m range (i.e. the Tampa Model).

It is upon this falicy that everyone from Mike Wilner to Shi Davidi to Gregor Chisholm and a host of anonymous commenters across the interwebs have concluded the Blue Jays will probably cheap out on Darvish. Now, with due respect to the possibility that these gentlemen are privy to off-the-record insider knowledge which supports this conclusion, I dissent.

I've made the case for Darvish before, now let me do it again with enthusiasm. Consider these points in relationship to what we know from what we've been told before (as listed above)

1. Darvish is a potentially transformative player. Both on the field, where he is unanimously considered to be better than the best of the free agent market for pitchers (and the best North American FA pitcher, CJ Wilson, just signed for almost $80 mil) and off the field where he brings pretty much every last one of the intangibles which mark a player as a "rock star" presence.

2. He's a full six years younger than the aforementioned Wilson. the team who get's Darvish gets his prime years, not his post-prime years. that essentially NEVER happens with a pitcher, and really has only happened in recent memory with two other players - A-Rod and Ichiro.

3. Darvish regularly delivers 200+ innings and is ready now to step into a major league rotation.

4. Darvish will cost nothing in prospects as a trade for, say, King Felix would.

5. There is no other player known to be available by any means out there which the Jays could attempt to obtain (except arguably Prince Fielder - whom the Jays have said they will not go beyond five years on) who could have even half the impact on the teams fortunes that Darvish could have.

In short, if you were to sit down and create an imaginary player would would perfectly meet the parameters of the kind of player the Blue Jays management has specifically said they need, that guy would still not suit the description as well as Darvish does.

"But," you say, "he will cost $100 million, maybe more! how can a team like the Blue Jays invest $20+ million a year in an untried pitcher? It's madness!!"

I'll tell you how - because you have misunderstood the nature of the cost. Do you remember that the CBA has severely limited the amount of money teams can spend on international free agents (except those from Japan!)? and also but a pretty harsh limit on draft spending? what happens to that money for a team like Toronto which had been investing a ton of money in both markets? Back into ownership's pockets? Keep in mind that this money did not and does not count against the major league payroll. Beeston was specifically ask if his talk of $120m or more included the cost of amateur talent acquisition and he said no, that it was a description of major league payroll.

So where does it go? I mean sure you can do some things around the margins like provide better food and medical staff to the minor leaguers but nothing very expensive. I submit to you that Alex understands that he now has several million dollars in-hand to re-direct, and has to decide where it will best be used. Several million non-payroll dollars.

So, let's break it down. We'll assume for the purpose of this exercise that bidders for Darvish will expect to bid more than the Red Sox paid in posting for Dice-K. A team which acquires Darvish will hold his rights for six years, so if you amortize the posting fee, that's the term - so if we assume the winning post fee is $54 million (Matsuzaka was a bit over $51m) then that works out to $9 million per year over the six years you control him. Then of course, you have to sign him. Let us assume that it's a point of pride for him to be the highest paid pitcher this offseason, that means in round figures you have to pay him ~$80m over five years.

For a total of $134 million in all. Or an AAV (IF it were all payroll) - discounting the $9m we've accounted to the sixth year - of $25 million a year. And it's THAT figure everyone blanches at. But that $25 million is NOT accounted against the major league payroll. the posting fee is the equivalent of the bonus paid to someone like Adonys Cardona, or indeed, Daniel Norris - it's a different budget item than the major league payroll. That $9m a year will be made up in large part of the money that the CBA forces the team to not spend on other players. Again, the posting fee does NOT count against the major league payroll. whatever amount it is, it is spread over six years of player control for accounting purposes and is an entirely reasonable cost for the value received. In short, Darvish sets you back $9 mil a year over the next six years (in amortized posting fee). laying aside the benefits of interest and so forth as too complex for the discussion, the fact remains that a very great deal of that amount in any given year - possibly all of it - can be covered by the money the team would have otherwise spent in amateur player acquisition.

That leaves you with a five year deal which would probably look something like 12-14-16-18-20 in terms of how it's structured. An easily affordable deal for a team which projects right now to have a 2012 payroll of !$70 million.

Even if you insist on looking at the total cost, the Jays would be on the hook for a cost that, were it all salary, would rank 17th on the list of all time biggest contracts. Yes, admittedly he's a less proven player than those who have bigger contracts, but he's also only 25 and most of those deals were signed with players in their 30's. We know that the Jays can afford it (easily), we know they are willing to go big on the right guy (or else we just assume everything is a lie) and we know all it takes is for Alex to see the value and make his case.

Look, if you want to argue that the Blue Jays should never take big money risks - that they should consider the "Tampa Bay Model" the ideal to be emulated - fine, I respect your right to that view. But if you are one of the folks who goes into every off-season insisting the Blue Jays chase Prince Fielder or whoever his equivalent is in that year, I defy you to argue against signing Darvish. This sort of opportunity comes along once a decade, if that.

More to the point, I don't believe for one second that Alex Anthopoulos doesn't see it. the Jays might not end up outbidding the Rangers (I'm convinced they are the main competition) but I think it is utterly foolish to assume they will not be among the 2-3 highest bidders.

Time will tell if I'm wrong.

BAM!!!

2011-12-06T15:25:00.003-05:00

Sergio Santos for Nestor Molina - WOW! I love me some nestor Molina but this is A win by every measure:

1. Molina now becomes the White Sox top prospect, easily
2. His upside is as a very good mid-rotation starter
3. However, pitching prospects, even the best ones, can ad do fail - the Jays just traded away that risk
4. further, in the very deep pool of potential starters in the Jays organization, Molina had the highest probability in the group of ending up relieving. In that sense the jays traded a probable reliever (just based on roster management) and the Sox acquired a probable starter (given the weaker depth chart) so they got more value than we dealt.

5. Jays acquired a player that they would control for just as many years (potentially) as they would have controled Molina
6. the acquire a player who's quite possibly filling the same role as the player they dealt would have likely filled
7. Said player has already made the leap to the majors successfully and does not come with that "pitching prospects often fail" caveat.
8. The Jays get the "young, cost controlled, long term, dominant closer" that Molina might have been a year or two from now - and they get him now.

My feelings can best be described by a brief musical selection:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO3zEeusKWU

Big grins right now!

Winter Meeting preview!

2011-12-05T05:58:00.003-05:00

In brief - none of us have any idea what AA is gonna do.

Full stop.

His public comments suggest:

1. a trade is much more likely than a free agent

2. he's almost certainly not going to sign either Pujols or Fielder

3. If a reporter tell you he's "in on" someone, he's almost certainly NOT.

4. if they tell you a deal is basically done, it probably is.

5. he's much more likely to move on a pitcher than a hitter (albeit someone has to play 2B

My predictions, laughable though it is to try to predict his moves:

(some of these might not be finished at the meeting)

1. he'll bring in a 2B, either Prado, or a former hot young guy fallen on hard times (Beckham, Stewart, for example). also, in a potential surprise move - someone is going to draft Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 - i wouldn't be stunned if that team immediately flips him to the jays for something we can spare.

2. He'll make a significant move for a relatively big name closer. My favorite target is Houston Street, Andrew Bailey is another oft-mentioned trade possibility. It might also be some guy you didn't know was available.

3. He'll add other established relievers. Guys like Holland from KC have been mentioned and while it might not necessarily be him, it will be a guy that will make you take notice. i would not be surprised if he took a guy with a higher contract in order to get a good late inning lefty. Jeremy Affeldt would make mama happy!

4. He will work all week on a #2 starter type, but I'm not sure if a deal will get made because the prices are so high. Jair Jurrigans is madly overpriced and he's not even especially great. He might spend some money on Bedard, Harden, someone like that - risk enough to keep the term down, but good enough to play that role if healthy. otherwise, he will asses the landscape and the go out and try to land Darvish when he's posted.

in fact the one prediciton i'm most confident in - if the jays have no added a very significant SP within the next week, they WILL go all out on Darvish. They have said far too much pulbically about the need to add a pitcher not to.

Oh, and as a final thought, one caveat on Fielder: it has been pointed out on Twitter that if Fielder were to sign a five year deal (instead of the 10 years he wants) and plays well over that period, he will be a free agent again at a younger age that Pujols is listed at right now. and the odds are VERY great that he can sign a much more lucrative deal for the 5 years that follow that date then than he can now.

For instance:

Sign a 10 year deal now for, say, 22 per year AAV. $220 mil in all

Sing a five year deal now for, say, $25 mil per year ($125 mil in all) and then sign one then for (lets suppose a deal similar to what the Cards offered Pujols in length) eight years at $27 mil per (a very modest raise after five years of baseball inflation) for a total of $216 million, and a total earnings over 12 years of $341 million

YES, he runs the risk of career ending injury (think Albert Belle for an example of an unexpected health issue) or a decline in production. but he doesn't lose money unless his deal five year hence is less than $95 million (which is considerably less money five years from now than it is now - see my old report about baseball inflation from a couple of years back)

Can Alex convince Boras that risk is worth taking? if he can (and it's a MASSIVE "if") then those Fielder rumors might be right. but only in that circumstance.

By the time I drag out of bed tomorrow he might well have done something big - some reporter tweeted tonight that Alex had said he "had something on the five yard line" - one presumes he did not mean his own five.

All I know is, it's the most wonderful time of the year! (unless you made the playoffs of course)

Edit to add: My only comment re Jeff Mathis is this - either he will be flipped, or he will agree to a big pay cut before the non-tender deadline, or he will be non-tendered with a much lower salary on the table for him to accept if he wants.

(the trade-off for Mathis is this - go to arbitration and get virtually no raise, say make $2 mil at best, and risk that expensive BUT non-guaranteed deal getting him cut in late March and he walks away with 1/6th that amount (which is less than the minimum salary) OR sign a guaranteed contract for , say, $900k - or risk being non-tendered and finding some other team out there who will pay him more than a million to play for them after the Jays non-tender him)

The one thing that WON'T happen, in my view, is that mathis suits up for the Jays in 2012 with a guaranteed contract paying him more than $1.5 million (and i'd be pretty surprised if it were even more than $1 million)

Wassuuup?

2011-11-28T23:14:00.002-05:00

As John Paul Morosi notes today, this is the start of a three week period centered around next weeks winter meetings during which the meat of the player movement this off-season can be expected to occur. Yes there are outlier factors - Darvish certainly won't be posted, won, and signed within the next three weeks (if at all) for instance. But for baseball junkies and rosterbators, this is Christmas season in a whole other sense.

Before I get too deep into that I want to pat my own back a bit. Here's a quote from me, posted on November 24:

If there is any thing which distinguishes them, it's that with so very many young talented candidates for the rotation that they might turn Molina into their own version of Joakim Soria even if that would be under-using his obvious talents.

Now note what John Farrell had to say on Jeff Blair's show today:

"Nestor Molina is a guy who we've had some internal discussions about who might fit that role [closer], for multiple reasons," said Farrell. "No. 1, emotionally he seems to have handled everything that's been thrown his way. He's got exceptional command of his fastball and he's got a split-finger that's a put-away pitch."
"So whether or not we look to make that decision this winter is probably premature, but he's a guy that we've had discussions about in that role going forward."

Prediction: if the Jays do not sign or trade for a legit closer (that is, a guy who's known as a closer, not just a quality reliever who might be able to) such as Street or Bailey, or Broxton - Molina will come to camp in the spring with a shot to win the job if he shows he can do it in ST.

Another interesting comment was that Farrell described the closer job as a higher priority than 2B (and I still have a pretty strong feeling that Alex will go get Prado for that job). given how very empty 2B is right now (with all due respect to Luis Valbuena) that's a pretty striking thing to me. Sal Fasano also had great things to say about Molina today.

Now, looking ahead over the next month, I'm going to get away from my Jays-focus a bit and attempt some predictions about upcoming moves. Sometimes this will be "i think this will happen" and sometimes a little "I think this SHOULD happen" will leak in.

Top free agents, likely destinations:

Pujols - stays with Cards

Fielder - Nationals or Marlins

Reyes - Brewers

Wilson - Marlins

Oswalt - Rangers

Ramirez - Angels

Also, I've got Johnson to the Tigers (as many do) but I hope he goes to the Cards. As for the Blue Jays, the only major player (other than closers) I see them in on is Eric Bedard, which I think they would be the favorite for but not a slam-dunk favorite. There's a good chance he re-ups in Boston too.

Glancing over the latest chatter about trade possibilities, all of this sourced to MLBTR who in turn source it elsewhere:

Supposedly the Cubs are shopping Matt Garza. Before you covet him, look at his home-road splits and see what the park in TB did for him. Call me crazy but if I were the KC Royals i'd be all over this one. Very few MLB teams have a better set of prospects to deal from.

Yu Darvish and his wife are divorcing. Speculation abounds on whether this makes him more or less likely to post. Elliot reports Beeston is not a fan of the posting system and seems to imply this makes the Jays a much less serious contender for him.

Jonathan Broxton is said to be looking for a one-year deal to rebuild value, and given the Molina discussion . . . I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's the probably first in line for the Blue jays. but he's said to be planning to pick a team this week and it's difficult to predict where HE wants to be. I'm inclined to think that the one year deal, or one and an option, is the way the team prefers to go.

I really thought there would be more things I wanted to comment on here in terms of "this player ought go there" sort of things - but it's getting late and my brain is froze up on the subject so....yeah.

Then there's THIS disturbing quote:

Teams that fail to sign top draft picks can’t re-allocate the money saved toward deals for other draft picks, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo. For example, a team that fails to sign a top pick who had a recommended bonus of $1.5MM would see its spending ceiling fall by $1.5MM and would not have the option of spending that $1.5MM on other players.

If true, this is an astonishingly bad development - it amounts to hard slotting after all. It seems very hard to believe.

Top 50 Prospects: Part 2 - the Top 25

2011-11-24T20:16:00.002-05:00

Since this is the post I'll be linking for the next year in the sidebar, let me start by including links to the previous lists:

100-76

75-51

50-26

Also, the list from last season is here.

And with that, let us indulge ourselves in a list of players Jays fans have to be thankful for (even if it's not Thanksgiving in Canada).

25. DJ Thon (20) SS [#17 last year] - The drop in ranking for Thon has more to do with the continued influx of talent along with the breakout campaigns of some other players, rather than penalizing him for his illness impinged 2011 campaign. Six of the players ranked above him were not in the Jays organization last year (on the other hand, five players graduated from the list).

24. Dwight Smith, Jr. (19) OF [ N/A] - I admit that I really overlooked this guy after the draft, and I blame that one one thing - all the lazy evaluations which said, more or less, "He's like his dad." But over time with more information, I think that sold him short. the more through descriptions make him sound like a considerably more interesting prospect than that initial description would imply.

23. Jacob Anderson (19) RF/1B [N/A] - I'm possibly giving Anderson too much credit for a really small sample in the GCL, but it was a very nice sample. In 37 pro at-bats he hit .405 and hie had a 1.098 OPS. Still, the 2011 first round supplemental pick (the highest pick after the unsigned Tyler Beede) was picked that high for a reason.

22. Chris Hawkins (20) LF [43] - Hawkins was drafted as a 3B, but the Blue Jays shifted him to LF this year and he responded with a fine offensive year. He showed good speed, good power, quality aggressive base-running (in 68 games he had 6 triples, and 14 steals in 18 attempts) as well as a respectable eye at the plate (.372 OBP).

21. Asher Wojciechowski (23) RHP [14] - Woj had a season that, on paper, looks like a disappointment. He opened the seasons strong, but the Jays felt he was relying too much on his fastball and had him make some adjustments that did not lead to a great results. By Mid-season he found the groove he was looking for (I'm unclear whether as a result of abandoning the changes or adjusting to them) and over his last 10 games looked very much like the guy the scouts had been praising (a 5 to 1 K to BB ratio for instance).

20. Chad Jenkins (24) RHP [13] - The best word for Jenkins year is "consistent" but that's as opposed to "impressive" or "breakout." Jenkins has established his pattern as a ground-ball pitcher who doesn't get the strikeouts one usually expects from a first rounder or a top prospect. I'm actually tempted to penalize him for that, he almost strikes me as the pitching version of David Cooper. But I'll be patient another year. My guess is that if he's still with the team next year, he'll have been so buried on the depth chart that he'll be dreaming fondly of a trade.

19. Roberto Osuna (16) RHP [N/A] - I readily admit I tend to give more credit to the new acquisitions than almost anyone, but how can you not be impressed by a kid who was holding his own in the Mexican League at 15! He was already 6'3" when signed and likely has added a couple of inches since then. I'm excited to see what he can do but he'll spend 2012 in the DSL so patience is required.

18. Kevin Comer (19) RHP [N/A] - Another supplemental round pick from the 2011 draft (thank you Colorado), some observers debated whether he might have been the highest upside pitcher the jays drafted this year (yes, over Beede) but like some of the other players from this draft, he was considered completely unsignable. That turned out not to be so.

17. Matt Dean (19) 3B [N/A] - This will be remembered as the boldest, or craziest, ranking on this list. Every year as the draft approaches there ends up being 3 or 4 guys that I read so much I like about that they become guys I lust after. sometimes that works out well (Eric Thames) and sometimes it fails (Justin Jackson). This year one of my favorites was Dean and i was thrilled the Jays took him. I have very high expectations. They got him late (13th round) - again a signability issue - but he was considered to be possibly a high 2nd round talent, of not even higher.

16. Adonys Cardona (18) RHP [16] - The prize of the Blue Jays international free agent class in 2010, Cardona made his stateside debut in 2011 and had just a little higher ERA than ideal, but the ratios were more than fine for a 17 year old in the GCL. There's nothing to suggest he's not progressing as expected.

15. Marcus Knecht (21) OF [33] - Mildly overshadowed by his fellow Lansing outfielders, mainly because he lacks their speed, but he led the team in walks, doubles and homers and has nothing of which to be ashamed. He'll certainly open in Dunedin in April.

14. A. J. Jimenez (22) C [15] - A lot of Jays bloggers like Jimenez a bit more than I do. Not that I dislike him as a prospect, in a vacuum, there's a lot to like. Good speed, solid doubles power, and reportedly excellent defense. But in the depth of the Jays system, particularly at the same position, he just doesn't stand out to me. I can remember years when he'd been a definite top 10 but not now.

13. Michael Crouse (21) RF [39] - Here's a guy I might be under-rating based on his draft position. There were a lot of similarities between he and the fellow who played to his right, but Crouse was a 16th rounder (2008) while the other guy was considered a huge steal in the third a year later. In fact, On August 1 he had more walks doubles, triples, and homers than that other guy, but he missed much of August with injury and was 1 for 11 upon his return. Quite possibly I've wronged him here, but the top of this list is a log-jam of worthy options.

12. Deck McGuire (23) RHP [10] - The knee-jerk thing to do is to compare McGuire's AA transition to that of other pitchers promoted before him and see disappointing results. But that was a tiny sample (only three starts before getting hurt) and it overlooks the results in Dunedin which were not at all underwhelming for a guy in his first professional season. There are guys in the system I like better (as yet unnamed) but i need to be careful to not penalize McGuire for not being them.

11. Carlos Perez (21) C [4] - Here's a guy who did have a disappointing season. I've seen quotes indicating his coaches were pleased with it but statistically he was well off his previous pace. Given the remarkable progress by some other players in the system he was bound to drop, but he still gets a ton of praise so not too far. Most are giving him a mulligan on this year.

10. Aaron Sanchez (19) RHP [8] - Here's another one of my "pet projects" - the guy Mel Queen called the best pitcher he'd scouted since Christ Carpenter - but he struggled with control at times in 2011 and in the process saw a couple of his fellow draftees pass him by on my list.

9. Daniel Norris (19) LHP [N/A] - I have an acknowledged history of spotting the first round pick a spot in the Top 10, unless the depth is staggering (which it is) but Norris wasn't a first rounder. Nevertheless, he's the recipient of so very much praise, including being widely described as a guy who'd never have reached the Jays first pick if anyone had thought he would sign, that in my mind, he's the #1 pick for 2011 no matter what the record says. This is one of those places where my ever shifting rankings shows up, as i had him at #6 right up until I started writing him up, but I can't overlook the results already in the book. I do believe in this guy though, without reservation.

8. Justin Nicolino (20) LHP [42] - Only one other player rocketed further up the chart this year than Nicolino. Made all the more valuable by his left handiness, Nicolino's year gives the appearance of one who's toying with his inferiors. in 12 starts for Vancouver he had an ERA of 1.03, a WHIP of 0.75 and a 6:1 ratio of K's to walks. And you have to be less inclined to think it's a low-minors mirage when you note he was a 2nd round pick.

7. Noah Syndergaard (19) RHP [18] - As good as Nicolino was, Syndergaard was just as good, though physically he might have a higher ceiling. Listed at 6'5" with some reports about that he's added another couple of inches, the big Texan pitched across three levels and while not quite as dominant as the lefty, the cumulative ERA was under 2.00 so he's worthy of this respect.

6. Adeiny Hechavarria (23) SS [5] - all the reports say that his bat will be just tolerable in the majors given his defense (which is a contender for "best in baseball") and dismiss his late season surge after moving up to Vegas is nothing but a manifestation of the PCL effect. But it's worth noting that his offensive turnaround starter weeks before his promotion, and that a big chunk of those Vegas games were played in Memphis and Nashville which do not inflate offensive numbers and he never slowed down. He also did well in the AFL after a slow start, hitting .308 with an .870 OPS in the last 10 games he played (albeit the AFL is also very hitter friendly). I'm not saying he's going to be an impressive hitter but I am saying he might be getting a little too much disrespect at the plate.

4.(tie) Nestor Molina (23) RHP [56] - didn't just put himself on the map, he re-drew the whole friggin thing. In his first year as a starter after three in relief, Molina walked through hitter in Dunedin with ease, then as if that wasn't enough he spent August slapping around AA at a pace that would impress Nicolino. In five starts he threw 22 innings and struck out 33 while walking only 2 and giving up a single earned run.

4.(tie) Drew Hutchison (21) RHP [19] - there's simply no way to choose between he and Molina, he started the year in Lansing and didn't find much in the way of serious opposition on any of the three levels he pitched at. And like Molina, he threw even better in a small AA sample than he had at lower levels. Either pitcher could see time in Toronto in 2012, but certainly will be candidates in 2013. If there is any thing which distinguishes them, it's that with so very many young talented candidates for the rotation that they might turn Molina into their own version of Joakim Soria even if that would be under-using his obvious talents.

3. Anthony Gose (21) CF [6] - another very hard choice here, Gose has outstanding skills in 4 of the 5 tools . . . but it's the deficiency in the fifth that left him ranked third for me. He can run like the wind, and do it smartly, he's a great fielder and has solid power (albeit, that was new this year and needs repeating) and has a cannon arm. But he hit only .253 which is not quite what you'd want for a future lead-off hitter. If he hit .300 he'd be a contender for the top 10 prospects in baseball.

2. Jake Marisnick (21) CF [9] - Edges Gose almost entirely because he hit .320 this year. While batting average is a less than ideal stat, a developing prospect needs to put the bat on the ball and Marisnick did that. He's not quite as fast as Gose, and probably has a tic less arm, but he's a more well rounded player. He's some seven months younger than Gose, but hasn't been pushed as fast through the minors. My hunch is he's a slightly better bet to be an All-Star and a somewhat lesser bat to flop than Gose.

1. Travis d'Arnaud (23) C [11] - the definition of a break-out year. d'Arnaud went from a year which was hindered by a back injury which led some to worry if he was physically able to hold up to the rigors of the position, to winning the EL MVP in convincing fashion. Even though the Blue Jays now have on their roster perhaps the best young catcher they've ever developed, the speculation is already abroad that his days are numbered until d'Arnaud forces the Jays to open the position.

And there you have it. To acknowledge historical reality, it's generally true that the majority of highly ranked prospects DON'T in fact go on to be above average major leaguers, but with that said, I truly feel that the team has 18-20 guys who are, in an average year or an average system, easily "top 10" prospects and over 40 guys who have legitimate potential to be average or better major league players. it's hard to describe the remarkable depth.

Last year the Kansas City system got high praise for having several really high ceiling guys, which would be an aspect they had over this list in the judgement of most observers, but for sheer depth of really good guys, it's hard to imagine it ever getting any better than this.

Top 50 Prospects: Part 1

2011-11-23T22:21:00.002-05:00

So. Brian Jeroloman is back. AA never lets me complete a list in peace. For the record, I had him at #73 (this pushes Marcus Brisker out of the top 100 - yes, I have an irrational attachment to having Scott Campbell on the list).

Now, let the festivities begin!

50. Alan Farina (age 25 on opening dayof minor league season) RHP - Will miss most if not all of 2012 recovering from TJ. Still has pretty good future after recovery.

49. Sam Dyson (24) RHP - has been recovering from injury, at least one recent report said he'd had a setback. Good stuff but plagued by injury.

48. Santiago Nessy (19) C - could go a lot higher if he stays at Catcher and succeeds, much harder to impress if he has to move out to 1B. Big kid for a catcher.

47. Manuel Cordova (17?) RHP - One of the summers well regarded bonus babies.

46. Jesus Gonzalez (17?) OF - another 2011 summer signing. All of these guys in the top 50 were well regarded by scouts and paid like high draft picks.

45. Anthony DeSclafini (22) RHP - Sixth round pick this summer, some good reports though largely overlooked in the praise for other picks.

44. Tom Robson (18) RHP - Canadian hero, 4th round pick this year. Will be a sentimental favorite for many.

43. Jeremy Gabryswski (19) RHP - Second rounder this year, another guy who didn't get the publicity of some others but some observers like him a good bit.

42. Yan Gomes (24) C - Finished strong in the AFL, had surprisingly good season in AA despite a constant struggle for playing time behind d'Arnaud. Given the opportunity he could climb.

41. Myles Jaye (20) RHP - considered a quality sleeper choice when drafted in the 18th round in 2010. Didn't set the league on fire, or disappoint. Jury still out.

40. Jario Labourt (18) LHP - Under the radar free agent last year, pitched fairly well in DSL this year but too early to judge him on stats. Scouts like him.

39. Mitchell Taylor (20) LHP - Excellent walk and K rate for Bluefield, possibly a temperament issue as he was sent home early for disciplinary reasons.

38. Mark Biggs (19) RHP - Eighth round pick in 2011 but he fell due to signability. probably more like a 3rd round talent.

37. Griffin Murphy (19) LHP - Second round pick looked a bit ordinary in first pro season but it's very early yet. Considered a very quality pick.

36. Joe Musgrove (19) RHP - Yet another guy who is perhaps underrated because he wasn't a guy who fell due to being hard to sign. Thus not a lot of publicity after the draft.

35. Kellen Sweeney (20) 3B - Missed almost the whole season due to injury, but if healthy still has a major league ceiling.

34. Dawel Lugo (17?) SS - All these 2011 bonus players have a "?" by their age because I don't have a birthdate on most of them. All these guys were on the list of the top 40 highest regarded Latin prospects on signing day, essentially, sort of the first round talent of the market.

33. Wilmer Becarra (17?) SS/CF - Most reports suggest the shortstop is growing out of the position (he's already 6'4") and will likely begin his pro career in CF.

32. Mike McDade (23) 1B - A mid-season knee injury wreaked what had been a breakout year. his first-half OPS was .880 and the second half saw only a .561 total. We'll have to see if that was an expected regression or it really was the knee.

31. Joel Carreno (25) RHP - Seemed to find a niche as a reliever (in a small sample) which is what I'd expected of him all along. We don't know yet how he'll peak but there might be a very good late inning guy here.

30. David Cooper (25) 1B - none of the scouts express the view that he'll be anything more than a filler guy in the majors, depsite fans drooling over his 2011 stats. Could have a Dan Johnson like career, or might prove his critics wrong.

29. Sean Nolin (22) LHP - lost a bunch of weight over the last off-season and re-invented himself. Jays coaches were blown away by the result. With so many good pitchers in the system, this might be the single most overlooked pitcher the team has.

28. Christian Lopes (19) SS - Seventh round signability steal. This is one of the guys from the 2011 draft I have a strong hunch about, though he might end up at 2B eventually.

27. John Stilson (21) RHP - Health is a big concern here. if he can stay on the mound, might be one of the biggest bargains in the draft. Question is - will the Jays develop him as a starter, or throw him out there as a closer where he might come very fast.

26. Moises Sierra (23) RF - Sierra is a bit of an enigma to me. Tools are there, performance is so far just "not bad." I've concluded that given the team's near-majors depth, Seirra is a prime trade candidate (as is Cooper) and I expect him to be an add on to some trade, this winter or next summer (in the same manner that Yohermin Chavez was in the Morrow deal).

In my opinion, there are easily 40 or more players in the system who would be top 30 prospects on your average MLB list - and there are players as low as #55 on my list that some would make an argument for as being worthy of that praise.

Coming soon: the Top 25!

Prospect Week Continues!

2011-11-22T22:24:00.002-05:00

This whole business of having a deep deep system takes on a new context given the news of the new CBA today. Frankly, I like Kevin Goldstien's take that pretty much the only good thing to come out of it (in terms of acquiring amateur talent) is the agreement to move up the signing deadline.

That said, my tinfoil hat theory is that Paul Beeston saw this coming (having worked closely with Uncle Bud) and that factored into Alex's plan to do crazy balls-out system building now, then turn into big-market monsters when they were ready - with "ready" being defined as "when MLB changes the whole dynamic." I suspect that Anthopoulos already has a plan in the works for how to keep succeeding in the new paradigm.

For some good takes on the situation, see Dave Cameron's piece for Fangraphs, Jim Callis' revised thoughts for Baseball America For Jays specific content, there's a great read (as always) From Shi Davidi, and Stoten's comments on DJF (which includes some further linkage). One further thought, Kelly Johnson is now a "modified Type A" which means that should another team sign him, the jays will get a pick in front of their first pick, but that team won't actually lose their own pick. I can't help but notice that the Twins (at #2) Cubs (#6), Marlins (#9) Rockies (#10) and Mets (#12) could all use a guy like Kelly Johnson at 2B next year . . . just sayin'!

And with that, I'll dive into the next batch of players on the list.

75. Dave Rollins (LHP) - kinda low pick in '11, did pretty well

74. Jon Diaz (SS) - the next John McDonald?

73. Jon Talley (C/1B) - Not too late for him to bust out if power holds up

72. Darin Mastorianni (CF) - sure seems fringy to me

71. Jesus Tinoco (RHP) - Signed this month, little info other than bonus

70. Jorge Vega-Rosado (SS) - Could make big leap if production continues

69. Alberto Torado (P) - Summer bonus baby, not a lot of info

68. Matt Wright (LHP) - Might lose in minor league portion of Rule 5 draft

67. Chad Beck (RHP) - Recent high praise justified?

66. Casey Lawrence (RHP) - Has done well for undrafted free agent

65. K.C. Hobson (1B) - very disappointing year

64. Keenen Bailli (OF) - Japanese import, unheralded for a reason apparently

63. Eric Acre (OF) - Undersized, but showed a lot of power

62. Danny Barnes (RHP) - low minors relievers are often illusions

61. Yeyfry Del Rosario (RHP) - little notice 2010 bonus baby, might be something there

60. Evan Crawford (LHP) - Added to 40, Jays must see something

59. Dalton Pompey (OF) - Some consider him a sleeper to watch

58. Brad Glenn (OF) - old for his league, but props for results

57. Daniel Webb (RHP) - headed to relief, Jays apparently like his profile there

56. Sean Ochinko (C/3B/1B) - off year, gets a mulligan

55. Tyler Ybarra (LHP) - a most promising sleeper

54. Gus Pierre (SS) - how long will they endure his SS defense?

53. Danny Farquhar (RHP) - marginal guy probably

52. Gabriel Cenas (3B) - Still in DSL, too early to tell on this bonus baby

51. Brad Mills (LHP) - likely can't succeed in Toronto. Needs trade.

Coming soon: the real meet of the system is on the horizon with 50-26 up next.

Top Prospect Week begins!

2011-11-22T04:00:00.002-05:00

As i mourn both the MVP vote and the signing of Joe Nathan in Texas (and cast a wistful glance at the stats for Houston Street) I lay aside the past and look again to the future

I'm totally changing up the way I list the prospects this year. I have, on my spread sheet, a "ranking" of no less than 150 players in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. A few of them I'll take out because they've lost their rookie eligibility even though in my mind they are still prospects because they haven't firmly established their grip on the major league roster, but there's still a ton of names. obviously the VAST majority are not likely to ever suit up in Toronto, but I don't like for a player to sneak up on my, so I pay attention to all of those who are interesting in any way.

In an effort to share my obsession with you, I intend to at least call the name of 100 players. to repeat, these are not "prospects" in the sense of having great promise to make an impact in Toronto. I think there are 30-40 guys you should be enthused about in the Jays system and, statistically, you'll be lucky if a third of those are real difference makers.

But it's also true that guys who were not in that top 30 last year are very important players this year, and guys who are not now, might very well be there a year from now. So I try to be exhaustive.

In years past I've avoided the more traditional "count-down" listing format preferring to just start with #1. But this year I will go with the reverse list simply by the nature of this week-long project. What I intend to do is write four columns, beginning with this one, with 25 players on each. I'll going to be very clear in saying that the lower on the list you are, the less the "rankings" actually mean. In this first installment (100-76) they are almost completely useless, in the next they reflect somewhat the concept of which players might be more prone to break out and jump into the top of the list (as Nestor Molina did this year). In the third installment, I begin to really sort of focus on "this guy is better than that guy" (and that defined as a balance of tools, the likelihood he can effectively use them, and accomplishment so far).

It's only the Top 25 where I consider the number beside the name to really mean something important in terms of reflecting my views. The higher we go on the list, the more likely I'll want to comment on the player. Which means, of course, that i won't say much about these guys.

100. Scott Campbell (2B) - injuries wiped out his career, a lot of sentiment in this ranking

99. Marcus Brisker(CF) - tools, hasn't panned out

98. Jon Jones (OF) - speedy guy but not blazing

97. John Anderson (LHP) - tons of injuries

96. Ryan Tepera (RHP) - classic Org Guy

95. Art Charles (1B) - a guy who could move up some

94. Adric Kelly (RHP) - some thought a sleeper in 2010 draft

93. Nico Taylor (OF) - very low pick, but nice start

92. Kevin Aherns (3B) - pretty much ready to give up on former 1st rounder

91. Justin Atkinson (SS) - versatile infielder from 2011 draft

90. Kevin Patterson (1B) - could move up next year

89. Devy Estrada (RHP) - loved his work pre-'11, scouts insist it won't play at higher levels.

88. Shane Opitz (SS) - some think he has promise

87. Ericdavis Marquez (LHP) - Awesome in DSL, 20 a touch old for that league

86. Ron Uvideo (RHP) - respectable stats, might be a fringe major leaguer for a bit

85. Zach Adams (LHP) - slow start, praised pick at #15 in 2010

84. John Tolisano (OF) - more disappointment from the '07 high schoolers

83. Dayton Martze (RHP) - mixed opinions from me here

82. Andrew Burns (SS) - 11th round pick in '11, same as Opitz in '10

81. Justin Jackson (IF/OF) - looked like possible break-out into June then fell completely apart

80. Kevin Pillar (RF) - good stats, but old for league

79. Brady Dragmire (RHP) - here a good thing or two about this pick

78. Ryan Goins (SS) - not bad, just not taking off either

77. Dustin Antolin (RHP) - comeback from TJ this year, could make big jump next year

76. Ryan Schimpf (2B) - just a guy

Up next - 75-51

Uniformly Pleased!

2011-11-19T03:53:00.003-05:00

Okay sure, it's not news. I, like every other Blue Jays fan on the planet, am still swooning over the new unis. I didn't even particularly dislike the last ones (the only ones I ever hated was the hideous T-Bird design) but these come very near to perfection. My favorite choice is to use the stripped down logo (as opposed to the one with the baseball behind it) on the cap and jersey. The darker, brighter coloring on the logo is a vast improvement over the pastels of the original.

There's not a lot more to say about the biggest event of the day, but it wasn't the only event. There was also roster movement as November 18 was the deadline for teams to finalize their roster in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 draft. The choices on who to add were obvious this year, as the Jays added Travis d'Arnaud, Mike McDade, Nestor Molina, and LH reliever Evan Crawford. Meanwhile they announced that the had removed Brian Jeroloman, who was lost on waivers to Pittsburgh (you'd think they would have learned by now!) and Cole Kimball (who they'd just claimed on waivers a few days ago) who was lost back to the Nationals from whence he came. Also added to the 40 man roster was another waiver claim, one Andrew Carpenter who played for the Phillies and Padres last year. The roster now stands at 38.

for those of you wondering about the shortage of slots given the needs the team has, having only 2 or 3 (or even less) open slots heading into the R5 is not unusual. Teams simply make their arrangements and announce the deal formally after the draft. And when the time comes other players will be outrighted to the minors to make room (such as Alan Farina, who's recovering from Tommy John surgery, or Darin Mastorianni as examples)

If you are wondering if any Jays prospects are at risk of being drafted - no one you should worry about but here are a few players who might temp teams, particularly in the minor league portion of the draft:

1. Jon Diaz - ceiling is John McDonald 2.0

2. Matt Wright - LH reliever who had good ratios

3. Mark Sobolewski - under-achieved his scouting reports coming out of the draft

4. Balbino Fuenmayor - one time bonus baby, never got out of low-a ball.

5. Jon Talley - C/1B/DH with emerging power potential

I'd be stunned if any were taken in the major league portion of the draft.

Coming soon, the Top Prospect list.

2011 Positional Review: Pitchers

2011-11-15T03:47:00.002-05:00

Buckle up folks, this is going to be a long one. I thought about doing the relievers as a separate post but that would give you the impression that they are more highly regarded than they are. the truth is the best relief prospect is usually no better than the 15th or so Starter prospect, and most of the best major league relievers were not relievers in the minors. So I'll list them in this post after dedicating the thousands of words necessary to cover the deep SP list.

Let me take a moment to note here, as I'll have to do in the Top prospect list, that there are guys who ":feel" like prospects still who have lost their rookie eligibility and so do not qualify. particularly, in this case, Henderson Alvarez (who'd be #1 on this list if he hadn't broken that threshold) and Kyle Drabek (almost impossible to properly rank anyway)

1. Drew Hutchison (20) RHP - It's difficult to speak highly enough of Hutch's record as a professional so far. The 15th round steal has been nothing short of phenomenal. As a pro he has 42 starts, ranging from short-season to AA in just 2 seasons. in that body of work his SO/BB ratio is 4.33; his SO/9 is 9.7 and his BB/9 is 2.2; his ERA is 2.52 and his WHIP is 1.03 over a total of 218 IP. If there is a cautionary note it's that he more than doubled his IP total from 2010 to 2011, which os often regarded as inadvisable - but you were never going to be able to stick to the +20% rule when his 2010 total was under 70IP anyway.

2. Nestor Molina (22) RHP - This might be viewed as a mildly aggressive ranking given that Molina is 22 and most of the other highly ranked guys played all or most of 2011 at age 20 or less. But Molina, despite having played his first professional game as a pitcher (he's a converted SS) at 18 was only recently moved into the rotation and has fewer professional starts than Hutchison does (27 v. 42). But what starts! In particular look at his five starts to finish the season after being promoted to AA New Hampshire. his ERA was 0.41, giving up a single earned run in 22 IP. He also K'ed 33 while walking TWO in those five games. And this at the end of a season in which he exceeded his previous career high in IP by 50. Overall his rates in 2011 were even better than Hutchson's. It's only the smaller sample of starts which has him slightly behind Hutch on this list.

3. Daniel Norris (18) LHP - another aggressive ranking here, and no maybes about it. This is based entirely on the flood of praise directed his way in the wake of the Jays landing the supposedly unsignable "best HS LHP in the draft" this summer. I'm sure there will be strong arguments made for going with the professional results of the next three guys on the list before I note Norris, but none of them came into the draft with the clippings Norris did.

4. Noah Syndergaard (18) RHP - Reviewing the 2010 draft class I certainly swooned over the praise for another guy in that class, and still think highly of him, but a lot of good things were said about the 6'5" Syndergaard as well and so far he's gotten out of the gate better. He's done all you could ask for in his first full professional season and his growth curve seems to still be trending upward. In 11 starts spread over three levels he posted a sub-2 ERA, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 SO/9 to go with a 1.09 WHIP. Expect more good things next year beginning at Lansing and possibly following the rapid promotion path that Hutchison took in 2011.

5. Aaron Sanchez (18/19) RHP - Sanchez, who turned 19 in the middle of the 2011 season, was the object of my swooning affection this time last year and as much as I still love his upside, the big (6'4") righty didn't match Syndergaard's production in 2011. Sanchez has dealt with some mechanical problems with his delivery which has created control issues. He's shown flashes of brilliance but until he gets that problem solved he's going to lag behind his classmates.

6. Justin Nicolino (19) LHP - There might be a small element of bias in not putting Nico ahead of Sanchez on this list, because it's hard to find any fault with the lefty's first year. The Jays held Nicolino far longer than i would have in Vancouver when he seemed to be owning the league, but he did get 3 starts in Lansing at the end of the year and did fine work in a small sample. In Vancouver he had an ERA of 1.33, a WHIP of 0.85, an insane H/9 rate of 5.8, 10.8 SO/9 and 1.9 BB/9 while opposing batters hit a tiny .156 off him. The 6'3" Nicolino is listed at a mere 160 and it's possible that he still has some growth yet in his physicality. Certainly there are no red flags when it comes to projecting continued success.

7. Deck McGuire (22) RHP - the 2010 first round pick has suffered more by comparison to the insane production of those above him on this list more so than by actual under-achievement on his part. Seen in a vacuum, McGuire did pretty much exactly what you'd expect in a first professional season in which he was aggressively started off in Hi-A ball. He posted almost a K per 9 with a solid ERA and a somewhat higher than ideal WHIP (though far from awful at 1.21) fueled by somewhat too many walks while making 21 starts in Dunedin. After his promotion to NH he made three respectable starts before being shelved with a minor injury which kept him out of action for a month. His ERA there was a bit high as AA hitters made better contact off him but the sample size (under 21 IP) is far too small too make you worry much.

8. Adonys Cardona (17) RHP - The Venezuelan bonus baby was in his first year stateside in 2011, pitching in the Gulf Coast league. As one might expect, there was some inconsistency but the indicators were strong, as were the reports. He could use more control, but his K rate was strong and I think given what he was paid to sign, there's every reason to expect big things.

9. Kevin Comer (18) RHP - Some observers considered it just as big a coup for the Jays to steal him away from Vandy as it was to land Norris and some scouts thin he's at least as good a prospect. For some reason, maybe just a latent resistance to believe that every move is pure gold, I've resisted buying into that entirely - but I can't ignore that he's good enough to at least provoke such high praise either.

10. Roberto Osuna (16) RHP - the nephew of former Major Leaguer Antonio Osuna was holding his own in the Mexican League at 15. He was considered no worse than the 4th best international player signed this summer and right now he's being rated all on tools and ability. He's very unpolished but with effective coaching could be a special player.

11. Chad Jenkins (23) RHP - Some are concerned about Jenkins' perceived lack of conditioning and his propensity towards a ground-ball, low-strikeout result and wonder how he'll play at higher levels. But his numbers are not bad, so much as they are something less than most fans hope for from a first round pick. In another organization one might expect him to be a perfectly serviceable #4 or 5 starter. given the competition with the Jays, it's hard to imagine a path from where he is to the major league rotation. I anticipate he'll be included in a trade at some point.

12. Asher Wojciechowski (22) RHP - Woj is listed at the same height and weight as Jenkins, but I've yet to hear anyone question his conditioning. Possibly they are put together differently. Still ,it's difficult to resist the urge to compare them. Their K rate was almost identical and the BB rate was pretty similar too. Woj gave up considerably more hits but there's a caveat to that. He started the season in fine fashion and, sometime in mid-May, the team tried to change something about his delivery which, whatever the intent, fouled up his fastball command and let to a lot of balls up in the zone. This persisted throughout June (his combined ERA for May and June was 7.81) , but once he overcame (or abandoned?) that he reverted to form and finished the season strong posting a 3.18 ERA in his last ten starts. For some reason i've had a hunch all along that Woj will end up a power reliever rather than in the Jays rotation (if he's not traded at some point) and I still lean towards that view.

Other guys to watch who stand to be quite good:

John Stilson (20) RHP - if he recovers from injuries suffered in colege

Joel Carreno (24) RHP - marginal as a starter prospect, could be a very good reliever in 2012

Sean Nolin (21) LHP - took huge leap forward in 2011

Mark Biggs (18) RHP - described as a steal in the 8th round, another "hard sign" guy

Joe Musgrove (18) RHP - i might be under-rating this guy

Mitch Taylor (19) LHP - 7th rounder from 2010, bit of a sleeper in this group

Griffin Murphy (19) - disappointing first season, still good potential

Jario Labourt (17) LHP - just getting started, well regarded though

Even more guys who deserve a mention: Myles Jaye, Jeremy Gabryszwiski, Tom Robson, Anthony DeSclafani, Manny Cordova, Sam Dyson, Tyler Ybarra

When you can construct a solid Top 20 prospects while only mentioning starting pitchers, you know you are doing something right.

------------------

Relievers

1. Joel Carreno (24) RHP - mentioned above, much more promising in the 'pen

2. Chad Beck (26) RHP - lots of praise from observers for long-shot guy

3. Alan Farina (24) RHP - will miss all of '12 recovering from TJ surgery

4. Danny Farquhar (24) RHP - not as impressive in '11, still has interesting arsenal

5. Trystan Magnuson (26) RHP - big guy, middling stuff, reminds you of Rauch in some ways

6. Danny Barnes (21) RHP - dominated at Lo-A, remains to be seen how he handles advancement.

7. Evan Crawford (24) LHP - solid ratios in AA, doing quite well in AFL

8. Matt Wright (24) LHP - high K/low BB numbers in Dunedin show promise.

9. Dustin Antolin (21) RHP - first year back from TJ, next year will be key

10. Daniel Webb (21) RHP - highly regarded in draft, couldn't pull it together as starter, Jayssiad to love his upside as reliever.

Others to watch - Ron Uvideo, Aaron Loup, any of a number of SP who might ended up converted to relief along the way. Particularly Stilson and Dyson who'd come much faster as relievers.

(subject to proofing tomorrow)

2011 Positional Review: Catchers

2011-11-11T03:22:00.002-05:00

This is a position both well stocked (astonishingly so given the rarity of good prospects behind the plate) and easy to handle in review.

1. Travis d'Arnaud (22) - It's difficult to imagine a player taking a bigger leap forward or accomplishing more of what he needed to in a season than d'Arnaud did this year. He was the MVP of the EL and deservedly so. He showed good power, good plate control, and above average defense. Usually the first guy one mentions on a list like this is worthy of 2 or 3 paragraphs but d'Arnaud's promise is so self evident it's difficult to find things that need saying. He'll start 2012 in the PCL and may well dominate but I've a hunch the Jays will move slowly unless they get a very impressive opportunity to include JP Arencibia in a trade, and it's possible it might be June of 2013 before d'Arnaud is in the majors "for good".

Some will express caution about the thumb he injured during the Pan Am games, but the team is confident he'll be ready to go and 100% when Spring Training starts.

2. Carlos Perez (20) - this was one of the hardest choices I've had to make so far in relative ranking. Viewed in isolation Perez's 2011 was not the second best season by a catcher in the jays system. Indeed it was arguably not even third best. But Perez brought a high enough profile into the season to sustain his reputation through one down year. He is still, of course, unpolished and inconsistent. But most observers see a relatively high ceiling. He'll need to rebound in 2012, however.

3. A.J. Jimenez (21) - Jimenez was a ninth round pick in 2008 and has been steadily raising his profile since the draft. He's always had a good reputation as an impressive defender, and he's turned himself into a quality hitter. He lacks home run power (so far, but he makes good contact and posts a respectable OBP. In isolation, he has a case for the #2 ranking on this list, and he certainly has his believers among Jays' prospect observers, but I still think that Perez will ultimately be a better prospect with a higher ceiling and it's for that reason i gave him the slight edge on this list. Jimenez will certainly move up to NH in 2012, and it's reasonably likely that unless Perez struggles in the spring, he'll move up to Dunedin as well, despite a sub-standard 2011. But the Jays might elect to hold him in Lansing and make him force their hand.

4. Yan Gomes (23) - It's time Gomes started getting some respect. Thus far in his career he's had the misfortune to share a roster with a catcher who was much his superior andso his playing time, particularly behind the plate, suffered. Gomes followed JP Arencibia at Tennessee, and while not as powerful as his predecessor, he shares a similar profile. Gomes is probably never going to be a first string major leaguer, but I could easily see him succeeding as a competent journeyman backup. but we'll never know for sure until and unless he gets a shot at a full time starting job.

5. Santiago Nessy (18) - Nessy is a bonus baby signing out of Venezuela. As you might imagine he's very young and raw and many of these guys just never "click" - but Nessy got off to a reasonably good start with the bat for a kid his age in his first North American work. My concern with this kid is his size. He's listed at 6'2" and 230 and probably isn't done growing. That's pretty big for a Catcher. I could see him maybe moving out to 1B at some point.

Another name to know is erstwhile glove man Brian Jeroloman. Abandon hope he'll ever hit much, but he has an impressive defensive reputation and some guys build a pretty decent career as a reserve on that profile. Sean Ochinko, from the 1B list is still technically a catcher and if Perez is not promoted out of the spring he (Ochinko) might actually get noticeable work behind the plate at least in the first half. also, Big Jon Talley has his believers, but he's as big as Nessy, and it's unclear how much potential the Jays see in him

2011 Positional Review: 1B

2011-11-07T04:48:00.005-05:00

Just going to give you an up-front warning: the best of these guys don't ever come up in scouts' discussions of the premium talent in the Jays organization. the position is in better shape for prospects than 2B and 3B, but the best guys are usually regarded as guys who project to a relatively low ceiling.

1. David Cooper (24) - Everything the scouts tell you about Cooper screams "don't get your hopes up" but he did everything you could ask him to do at AAA this year except pile up home runs. the book is that he's a guy with an offensive ceiling something like Lyle Overbay at his best (and a "most likely" that looks like Overbay in decline) but his case is not aided by defense. Overbay carries a sterling defensive reputation, Cooper's is "barely adequate.

That's an unfortunate combination for him. You have to tip your hat to what he did in Vegas though. A .439 OPS and 51 doubles is nothing to sneeze at. And while it's true his HR power was absent, he hit 20 dingers in AA the year before in a much tougher environment for power - and that having had an awful first half in 2010. So there's some power there. It's hard to say how much of that he gave up for the contact. I expect Cooper to be traded as part of some package because i don't see a place for him in Toronto. He'll have an "okay" career, i imagine, but not one that will make you wish the deal hadn't been made.

2. Mike McDade (22) - A sixth round pick in 2007, McDade is the definition of a "bad body" player. He stands 6'1" and is listed at 260 pounds. Most observers have thus spent his career waiting for that fact to catch up with him and his development to stall. Thus far, it hasn't. McDade has been a consistent "very good but not great" hitter the last three years. In the first half of 2011 he seemed to be having a breakout year, but around mid-season he suffered a knee injury. He eventually came back and tried to play through it (it's unclear to me if he hid it from the trainers or the team thought he could keep playing) and his stats crashed through the floor. Look at the comparison of his first and second half stat line:

.310/355/.525/.880

.214/.265/.297/.561

It's reasonable to assume the second half numbers are not representative of, well, anything, and that the first half stats are project-able as a reasonable representation of where he's at now. Still, it's worth noting that he's missed ~20 games or more each of the last three years so there may be some health issues related to his size after all.

One thing NOT related to his size is his defense, which surprisingly, is considered to be excellent. He should move up to AAA this season, even if Cooper is still in the organization. He should look like a monster in Vegas, but we see how much good that did Cooper.

3. Sean Ochinko (24) - Future utility guy, so long as he maintains his positional versitility. Still listed as a catcher, he can also play 3B and 1B and where his defense holds up will make a big difference in his major league value. If he can be a competent catcher he'll be worth watching as a reserve guy in the majors, but good defensive catchers usually don't get shuffled around this much. I could see him maybe having a major league role not unlike that which Eric Hinske has settled into.

The two-time Webster Award winner fell on some hard times in 2011 in comparison to his previous work. His HR total did go up quite a bit, but at the expense of so much contact that the net offensive result was actually down. He had a miserable April before picking it up the rest of the season but his OPS varied widely from month to month and he never seemed to be "in the zone." You can write this year off, of course, as an off-year, but it doesn't need to become a habit.

4. KC Hobson (20) - By every measure Hobson had a completely unimpressive season in 2011. He was projected to hit for power, and hasn't yet - not really even impressive doubles power. He was very streaky, didn't make enough contact, and even posted an alarming (for a 1B) 25 errors defensively. He's still young, and the Jays will take their time, but he needs to step up his game.

5. Kevin Patterson (22) - Patterson had a good year, but the big caveat is age. Being 22 in short-season ball and having a good year really doesn't impress most people. A 30th round pick in 2011, my guess would be that for a real challenge he might move ahead of Hobson- eventually if not initially - in 2012 because at his age he really ought to be trying his skills in Dunedin. lack of pro-experience aside.

6. Art Charles (20) - Charles is a big (6'6") guy with power potential who played for the Bluefield Blue Jays in 2011 after being a 20th round draft pick in 2010. He stepped up his offensive game this year, increasing both his OBP and his slugging. But he's probably not ever going to be called a great prospect if his average doesn't get out of the .240's - that kind of thing might be overlooked in a catcher or a SS, but not a 1B.

I'm going to try to get to the catchers this week before tackling the massive pitcher list.

Quick hit: roster management

2011-11-05T14:44:00.002-04:00

Handful of minor but interesting moves lately, my thoughts:

Adam Loewen
I won't repeat Alex's explanation of the mechanics of the deal, if you pay close enough attention to read this blog you surely know. I still hold out hope he'll be back, not just for the story but also because I see him being a valuable reserve OF/1B at a minimum. Still, he has to have cleaner path's to a major league starting role. In particular, I suggest that the mariners would be a good fit. Besides being a "hometown" team of sorts, there's a LF job crying out to be filled.

Jesse Carlson
Recovering from shoulder surgery, and by no means a high-enough ceiling guy originally for anyone to be optimistic about his coming back solid. But I'd have no objection to giving him another whirl.

Trystan Magnuson
Re-acquired from the A's for cash, Magnuson continues to put up impressive numbers in the minors (albeit his control slipped this year) and in a small sample in the majors, was not ugly - in fact, take away one terrible appearance v. the Twins and his ERA otherwise was 2.86 - but in less than 13 IP. We'll see where he ranks in terms of being a candidate for the last job in the 'pen alongside Danny Farquhar, Chad Beck (who still hasn't been scored on in the AFL by the way) and...

Jesse Chavez
Also pitching well in the AFL, but has so far been unable to consistently turn good minor league work into major league success. I think there's a solid possibility that the Jays will, at some point, try to sneak both Magnuson and Chavez off the 40 man roster, but either would be tempting in the Rule 5 draft so maybe not.

John McDonald
Presumed to return to Toronto this off-season, he re-signed with Arizona on a two year deal. No big thing, he's an NL kind of guy anyway. I trust that, despite the speculation of some fans, the Blue Jays will make every effort to have someone better than Mike McCoy in that role next year. I like Jerry Hairston, Jr for instance.

In other news, the annual exit of over two dozen minor league free agents occurred yesterday. Besides Loewen and Carlson, other guys who are free to leave who you may have heard good things about over the years include Reider Gonzalez, Yohan Pino (who pitched very well standing in for Deck McGuire in August) Sean Henn (who did surprisingly well in relief for Vegas) and veteran major league pitchers Chad Gaudin and Kyle Davies, both of whom would surely be welcomed to re-sign. Baseball America has the complete list.

In still other news, there was a report this week that Atlanta seems willing to take offers on Martin Prado. , other than the idea of trying a gamble on Gordon Beckham if the White Sox give up on him, I don't think I've heard of a potential 2B candidate for the jays that i like better. On his career, he's pretty much equal in value to Johnson, and more consistent. If you can get Prado for something you value less than the 2 draft picks you can get for Johnson, then he's a better choice. But I have no idea how high the price might get.

All for now. Transmission ends.

2011 Positional Review: SS, 3B, and 2B

2011-11-03T06:03:00.003-04:00

Circumstances compel me to combine lists this year in these infield position. Quite frankly, there's no significant 2B prospect at all and anything the Jays develop there will be a converted shortstop. Similarly, there's no significant 3B above short-season ball, and it's not impossible that should a player develop at this position it might well be a converted shortstop.

Thus I will present these players in a combined list, with a crop of other lesser players who have some aspect worth your attention.

1. Adeiny Hechavarria , SS (22) - The class of this list is clearly Hech, who some describe as the best defensive SS in professional baseball (and the rest call him second best to his countryman in the Red Sox organization). the odds are high that that glove WILL get him into the majors. Alcies Escobar, for instance, And Elvis Andrus are wizards who's bat would not otherwise play in the bigs. What kind of a hitter he will be remains to be seen. When he was promoted to AAA in mid-August, his bat seemed to explode in the offense friendly league, and of course the common meme was "so what? it's the PCL?" but there are nevertheless some reason to not be so flip about that breakout.

For starters, Hech did not JUST see his stats go up to a level you might expect a no-bat guy to produce down there. Comparisons are difficult because comparing him to a weak hitter who's a decade or more older (such as Dewayne wise) isn't fair, and there are few players of his age level and background who were already in the PCL. but the fact remains that if the base conclusion is "the guy can't hit" then there is only so much the PCL can do for him. look at Jon Diaz for instance.

Second, and more importantly, the offensive explosion actually started two weeks BEFORE his promotion. From the double-header on July 27 through his promotion to AAA, Hech hit .375/.417/.518/.935 and that's worth noting, even if it's a small sample, because he'd done nothing like that previously in his pro career. I recall that in 2010 David Cooper was sitting on a very mediocre line at mid-season, then roared throug hthe second half and observers had little way to understand that. later we learned he made a significant adjustment in his approach and re-discovered his college offensive production. I have no inside information but it is quite possible Adeiny likewise unlocked his upside via some adjustment in his mechanics. I am not arguing he's ever going to be Tony Fernandez, but he might be on par with the slick fielders I mentioned in the first paragraph at least.

2. Matt Dean, 3B (18) - Admittedly an aggressive rating, this reflects both a lack of depth at the position and my appreciation of the great press he got in the wake of the draft. don't be fooled by his relatively low draft position, he was widely regarded as a low first round talent that was unsignable. if there's one guy in the system who might make the Jays consider moving Lawrie to the post-Baustista outfield, it's Dean.

3. DJ Thon, SS (19) - Yes, I'm going to keep calling Dicke Thon Jr "DJ" until someone gets him to say he doesn;t like it. Thon, like Dean, was an unsignable first round talent that the Jays managed to sign anyway. He didn't show a lot of that this year because he was weakened by a kidney disorder that was identified during spring physicals. There's nothing really remarkable about his season for the GCL Jays, other than his great July (.911 OPS in 20 games) but you have to give him a mulligan on this one.

4. Christian Lopes, SS/2B, (18) - another highly regarded player who dropped in the draft on questions of signability. At least one list had him among the top 50 prospects going into the draft. Like Dean, I'm ranking this guy on his clippings since he has no professional at bats under his belt.

5. Kellen Sweeney, 3B, (19) - a 2nd round choice in 2010, Sweeney also frustrates with his lack of pro-stats for reference. Injured early in 2011, he missed most of the season and accumulated only 35 at bats. Still, in his meager professional sample, he's shown excellent plate discipline and he's still highly regarded.

6. Gabriel Cenas, 3B, (17) - Signed for a significant bonus out of Venezuela in 2010, the youngster got only 53 at-bats in the DSL this year. It's impossible to project whether Latin bonus babies will live up to the cash they received. One need look no further than Balbino Fuenmayor for evidence, or the next guy on this list. but on paper, the kid is a legitimate prospect.

7. Dewal Lugo, SS, (16) - bonus baby signed this summer, assigned to but did not play for the DSL team. This ranking is based only on the amount of his bonus. In truth, I consider him a better prospect by that measure than Cenas, and my master list reflects that. but given Cenas has a touch of experience, a defer to him for this list.

8. Gustavo Pierre, SS, (19) - the lanky Dominican bonus baby continues to try the patience of Jays prospect geeks. the bat which has been thought to have real potential has yet to emerge, and his error total in 2011 was astonishing. It says something about his natural ability that the Blue jays did not simply concede the point and move him to 3B or the outfield, but the comments of observers point to that eventually happening. His 44 errors (as poor a measure as errors are, particularly in the low minors) cannot be overlooked. On the other hand, it would be insane to write off a kid at 19 who has his physical gifts.

Other players who, for one reason or another, may be worth your attention in 2012:

Ryan Schimpf, 2B - the best actual current 2B prospect in the system, you should not be excited
Chino Vega, SS/IF - that's actually just the nickname of Jorge Vega-Rosado, but I like it better so I'm going with it. He was drafted in the 28th round, and he's an undersized buy, but he spanked the GCL in impressive fashion.
Ryan Goins, SS - competent guy, drafted in the 4th round in 2009. Nothing flashy but might soldier on until he's a factor.
Andrew Burns, SS - 2011 11th round pick
Shane Optiz, SS - considered a sleeper in some quarters
Jon Diaz, SS - at 26, he's on the clock, but John Farrell raved about his defense in spring training and it's not impossible that, now that John McDonald is out of the picture, he might not sieze the chance to be the next all-glove no-hit reserve infielder in toronto next spring.

Also, one last token mention of former first round 3B Kevin Ahrens, who's done nothing to make you happy, and one-time-SS-cum-utility player Justin Jackson, who look so good this year until mid June before swooning back into utter mediocrity by the end of the season. I had such hopes for that kid

2011 Positional Review: Outfielders

2011-10-27T05:23:00.000-04:00

So, long past time (if you consider my usual schedule) we commence the prospect positional reviews, beginning this year with the outfielders. Same caveats as always apply: rankings can shift at any time, and closely ranked players are pure judgement calls. If player A is #7 and B is #17, that's noteworthy...but if Player B is #8, don't get too worked up about that.
(age is playing age in 2012)

1. Anthony Gose (21) - The speed demon who has become for all intents and purposes the third player in the Halladay deal has by most accounts become even more impressive as a prospect than he was a year ago. His batting average for the AA season was less than you'd like to see, even if it is a mediocre stat. But he balanced that with a solid walk rate which resulted in a respectable .349 OBP. It's easy to imagine adding, say, 30 points to that without much difficulty which puts him in the neighborhood you want your lead-off hitter to be. In addition, 70 steals in 85 attempts was a result bettered by only one other player in the minors. He had plenty of homers for a top-of-the-order guy, but a flukishly low number of doubles for a player with his speed. That would imply that the slugging might creep up a bit too, but the counter-argument is that the homer total might not be repeatable. He was ranked the third best prospect in the Eastern league behind mega-prospect Bryce Harper and team-mate Travis d'Arnaud.
Gose was assigned to the Arizona Fall League after the season and he's been among the better hitters in that league, producing a stat line that's much better than his solid AA numbers. But that's mostly power driven and in a league that favors hitting so it likely doesn't refelcet a realistic expectation for anyywhere other than Vegas. Many Jays fans are advocates of the idea of fast-tracking Gose to the majors, but I'm not. Given the crowding in the Blue Jays outfield (mainly in the need to sort out the Snider/Thames competition) it would be a bit of a squandering of assets to throw Gose into that too soon. While I expect him to be assigned to AA Las Vegas, if I were making the decisions (I say looking in from the outside) I'd send him back to New Hampshire for the first couple of months of the season with instructions to work on making better contact. When that progress satisfied me, I'd put him on a targeted schedule of June-ish for a promotion to Vegas, and that with an idea of having him spend a year and a half in AAA. With Rasmus in CF in Toronto, there's no need at all to push Gose as fast as possible.

1. (tie) Jake Marisnick (21) - I simply can't find a solid argument to pick one of these guys over the other. Marisnick is almost nine months younger than Gose, and played two levels lower. his stat line is considerably better in most respects, as one would assume given the difference in levels - each doing about what the other might be expected to do if they swapped places. The only reason they are in the relative positions they are is due to the time of year of his birthday, he's in his third year in the minors, while Jake is in his second - and also in that the Phillies were a bit more aggressive promoting him. If you compare their age 19 season, the stat lines are eerily similar.
In terms of his on field results in 2011, it's really hard to find anything you might have liked to have seen and didn't. His OBP was just shy of .400, his power just short of .500, he got better as the season went on (he had a .983 OPS in August), he had a solid platoon split, and like Gose he displayed excellent speed, basestealing efficiency, and sterling defense. Marisnick was rated the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America, but in the chat on the list it was said that you could make a case for him for #1. He's certain to lead the Dunedin squad in 2012 and, as much as I'd love to see him come fast, the same logic applies to him as to Gose. Take it slow, don't force a competition before you have to, and look for Jake to arrive in 2015. At which point, if Gose works out as expected, Marisnick will be the cause for a discussion about where Jose Bautista moves in order to open up RF. I can imagine that Bautista might well be the regular DH assuming things go well for the kids.

3. Marcus Knecht (21) - Knecht is seven weeks older than Gose, and he's not the physical specimen either of the two men in front of him is. Nor the man next behind him for that matter. He just simply hits the ball. He has solid power, good plate discipline, and while he's been pushed to left he's there more because of the skill of his teammates than any lack of defensive ability on his part. As long as he keeps hitting at this pace he'll keep playing alongside Marisnick through the system.

4. Michael Crouse (21) - The third member of Lansing league-best outfield, Crouse is the guy who came to the game most raw. A Canadian kid like Knecht, he's also the most imposing physical specimen in this group (in the photo above, he's second from the right, Knecht is the shorter one on the right. Marisnick is second from the left). While the three men above him were early round draftees, Crouse didn't go until the 16th round and right now that's looking like a steal for the Blue Jays. A close look at Crouse's year shows him on par with, if not better than, Marisnick in pretty much every regard except contact. Marisnick only struck out 91 times, Crouse's rate projected to the same # of at bats (he missed much of August) work out to over 130. Conversely, Marisnick had almost 40 more singles than Crouse would have had. Crouse played RF and I've seen nothing negative discussed regarding his defense. Expect that he, like Knecht, will keep that "Three Amigos" outfield together until and unless one of them falters.

5. Chris Hawkins (20) - Hawkins was a third round pick in the 2010 draft and he signed early enough to get significant playing time that year. the results were not bad, but perfectly competent for a high school prospect. Drafted as a 3B, he settled into LF this year for the Bluefield squad and improved his work across the board, increasing his OPS by almost 200 points. Reports have been uniformly positive and jays fans would be justified in assuming he's worthy of being included in discussions of "the future."

6. Moises Sierra (23) - Sierra has been quietly polishing his skill set, having his best year in 2011 after losing most of 2010 to injury. Like Gose, he dramatically increased his HR power while showing unusually few doubles (a pattern?). Unlike Gose, while showing good speed he was a highly unpolished baserunner. Hew is, of course, possessed of a RF arm of which stories are told in song and verse. Sierra has a ways to go yet, before he projects to be anything other than an ordinary major league player (which, given the talent the jays posses doesn't bode well unless he's traded) but the tools are there.

7. Adam Loewen (28) - By now you surely know the story, it's not like I myself haven't told it 20 times, but I'll say it again: yes he's going to be 28 next year, but he still has less than 1350 professional at bats (by contrast, Gose has 1774) so we still haven't likely firmly grasped Loewen's ceiling. He's a quite good RF and 1B, a competent CF and inexperienced but surely capable in LF. if the Jays find a way to get Mark Teahen off the 2012 roster, there's a solid opportunity for Loewen to stick with the club given the value of that kind of diversity. What kind of hitter he ultimately ends up being is anyone's guess, but other than Rick Ankiel, there hasn't really been a story like this before so there's no precedent. I, for one, think there's still a decent chance he ends up too good a hitter to be a reserve, and the jays will be quite fortunate to have him there for depth (kinda like the Phillies enjoy the blessing of Ben Francisco coming off their bench) for the next few years. Assuming they don't let him slip away on waivers.

Worth noting: there are a few new Blue Jays, added via the 2011 draft and international free agent signings which can't fairly be ranked but you need to know about:
Jake Anderson - long lanky RF was a beast in a very small GCL sample
Dwight Smith Jr - didn't get on the field in 2011, expected to be a CF at least initially
Wilmer Baccara - 16 year old Latin SS signed in this summer, projected to be a CF in pro ball.
Jesus Gonzalez - another 16 year old highly regarded Latin american free agent signing.

Other outfielders in the minors who might pop up on the radar for whatever reason: Darin Mastroianni, Brad Glenn, Kevin Pillar, Kenen Bailli, Dalton Pompey, Eric Acre

Next Up: Infielders

Quick Hit 2: Electric Boogaloo

2011-10-24T21:31:00.004-04:00

Despite everything you have heard me say about the Jays adding a domestic FA starting pitcher, i'm very much in favor of making a play for Roy Oswalt if for whatever reason we don't get Darvish. He's old enough that a short contract (no more that 3 years) will work, yet good enough to be worth the risk. Yes he had injury issues this year, but the Jays are well suited to patch over any absence he might have left in him. He brings legitimate Ace-level credibility and when healthy he's a 200 IP horse.

The flip side is that Oswalt is from Mississippi (not very far from me, actually) and it's possible he's one of those folks that will simply not consider playing in Canada. Would be pretty cool if Alex could get Doc to say some kind things about T.O. - eh?

Quick hit: Farrell and Boston

2011-10-24T19:45:00.000-04:00

You might not know this about me, but I'm a Star Trek geek, and also a bigger fan than you might guess of (sometimes obscure) pop-culture references.

there's a scene in Star Trek III which reminds me of the current mini-stir over the idea of Farrell to Boston as their next manager.

On the surface, while I like Farrell fine, and thought he got better as the season progressed, and while I'm really impressed with his openness to self analysis (unlike a certain other manager I recall who thought he never erred if you listen to his public remarks) I do recognize that there's a limit to how many extra wins a manager gets you and would be willing to be overpaid by another team if they wanted him bad enough. I do have an issue with the idea we wouldn't ask for compensation but I'll leave that thought for another time and place.

Anyway - the big problem here is the massive condescension of the Red Sox and the media that presume that any fool who could leave Toronto for Boston would obviously do so. THAT contempt changes the equation for me.

In the movie, there's a scene in which the Klingon captain (played by the wonderful Christopher Lloyd) has the drop on Kirk and the rest of the good guys. Kirk asks the Klingon to "let the boy go" and the Klingon replies "NO!" and Kirk asks "why not? He means nothing to you" and the Klingon replies "Because you wish it!!!"

That's my message to Boston - the simple fact that you, of all teams, want him is enough for me to say "NO!" I don't need a more complicated reason than that.

In the Cards

2011-10-20T05:34:00.000-04:00

No, not even a sideways reference to the St. Louis Cardinals. Rather, a variation on the old "crystal ball" meme. Before I get into the minor league positional reviews ramping up to the top prospect lists, I want to pause for a brief post to look at the major league squad as we go forward into the winter before Alex starts screwing with the roster. Most of this is stuff you can figure out for yourself and on those points I will be brief, but I do want to be "on the record" as it were. Yes, if you don't know, I tend to be an optimist. My philosophy is if there is a REASON for caution I can document, then be cautious. But absent such a reason - how good do I think this guy is? What is reasonably possible to expect from him?

Sure, it's possible ANY player could all of a sudden suck for no apparent reason (the Jays know that better than maybe anyone) but you can't look ahead and just assume that will happen - at least i can't. i look at a guy and see what he CAN do and assume he just might.

Offense/Defense

The Blue Jays are set with:

RF - Jose Bautista. Really needs no elaboration. The most i could speculate about here is what's in store for a position shift in the out years of his contract when (if) the great minor league outfield prospects start crowding the roster. I wonder if Bautista would be content to become a DH when he's 35, 36?

CF - Colby Rasmus: Yes. Set. If you are worried about CF you simply fall in that category of fan who is constitutionally incapable of being optimistic about the Jays future. YES it was a difficult transition and a difficult year. But look at 2010 and give your head a shake.

3B - Brett Lawrie: Anything I could say here would understate how excited I am about Lawrie. I'm every bit as confident in him over the next 3-4 years as i am about Bautista, maybe more.

SS - Yunel Escobar: If/when Hech forces the situation Esco will almost certainly become the 2B, but until then Escobar is going to consistently be in the to 3-4 SS in the AL IMO That's a good place to be, given how difficult it is to find even an average SS in the majors.

C - JP Arencibia: Yes, Travis d'Arnaud might come take his job in a year or two, or make it possible to trade JP, but for now he's the guy. He's going to hit, most likely, 25-30 homers which is rare for a catcher, and his BA will come up some (say the .240-.260 range) and the OBP will tick up to reflect that and maybe another walk or two. I'm thinking something like .310/.470/.780 or thereabouts. If that disappoints you, look around the league. there's likely always going to be 2 or 3 "name" guys who hit better, but he's going to be fine. and when you look at what's coming, the Jays are likely to be cool behind the plate for the rest of the decade.

Uncertainty but not need:

LF - Travis Snider v. Eric Thames: Technically, Adam Loewen and Raji Davis are in the mix too, but it's going to take a couple of big piles of failure from Snider and Thames for BOTH to lose the job. There's certainly enough options that there will be no need for an acquisition here. Personally, I still think Snider is a considerably more talented guy (and I love love love Thames) and it really bugs me that we can't find a way to put both in the lineup long term without one of them DHing. But I can't really guarantee Snider will find the sweet spot he never found in 2011. There's also some possibility one of them would be included in a trade of a premium opportunity presents itself.

DH - Edwin Encarnacion v. Eric Thames: Technically you can include the other LF candidates here, but both Davis and Snider are better fielders than Thames and Loewen almost certainly is. The Jays obviously seem to believe that EE still has a real breakout season in him, and he might. I'm find with watching to see if it develops in 2012. BUT, I simply don't have the emotional investment in Eddie that I do in Snider and Thames (or even Loewen really). There's a part of me that would like to see Thames end up with this job eventually. Thames will, I think, be a better overall hitter than he was this year - something in the low .800s for an OPS I'm guessing, but he strikes me as the most obvious risk for a sophomore slump this coming season too. Or, more precisely, have an adjustment period sometime in the first half that drags down his overall line at the end of the year (not unlike the pattern of Encarnacion's offense in 2011).

Potential acquisitions:

2B - ???: Kelly Johnson is a free agent, who stands to bring back a compensation draft pick if he leaves, but he's also the clear class of the free agent class. I have NO idea if the jays liked him enough to forgo the pick in order to bring him back. if they don't, I'd expect a trade. One guy to keep your eye out for - Gordon Beckham. Alex is said to like him a lot and he fits the profile. of course, if the White Sox decide to shed some expensive guys and go younger he's not the kind of guy they will want to give up on.

1B - Adam Lind? - I'm not sure on this one. In a post-season interview, Alex spoke in pretty optimistic terms about Lind despite his horrendous second half (actually more than the second half, he was very bad from June 18 - 2 weeks after he came off the DL - through the end of the season). AA expressed confidence that Lind's back issues (i.e. core strength and conditioning issues) and that coming in better physically prepared to play 1B next year he'll return to being an elite hitter, and stay there over the course of the season. I'm inclined to take him at his word, with the caveat that obviously if something special presents itself - a guy who's clearly a better bet to be much better.
There's another factor here - the Reds have said they are not moving Joey Votto....right now. The actual best time for them to deal him is next winter (or this summer if there's a great match-up). it might be very well true that Alex is willing to let Lind take one more go rather than acquire someone else who would get underfoot when he takes a run at Votto a year from now (and i'm convinced if Votto is on the market the Jays will pull out the stops unless Lind advances into MVP territory). i know fans who are in "go for it NOW!" mode won't like to hear that but i expect it's the plan.

Bench - Bring back John McDonald. doesn't matter if you want it, it will happen; pick up a reserve catcher, my nomination is Ramon Castro; sort out if you have room to carry both Raji Davis and Adam Loewen in the majors and, if not, how can you not lose Loewen on waivers.

Pitching

Starters
1. Rickey Romero - Nothing much needs to be said here.look at guys like Price and Lester and so forth - he's right there with them. I'm not sure he has MUCH room to step up to another level but this leve lis just fine.
2. Dustin McGowan - YES, he could fall apart at any moment and it's a blessing that the Jays have so many good guys so close that if McGowan goes down in June we have good options. But if I'm the manager and McGowan makes it through ST healthy and effective, he's my #2 and as long as he remains healthy you are going to be really impressed.
3. Brandon Morrow - The day is coming. I don't know specifically what year it will be, or even if it will be in a Jays uniform, but Morrow WILL be a Cy contender sometime in the next, say, 3-4 years.barring major injury. Bet on it.
4. Henderson Alvarez - it's true he's quite young, and there's every historical reason to steal yourself for the likelihood of regression particularly in 2012. I'm prepared for that, but at the same time, he had EIGHT walks in 63 IP. it was as good a rookie debut as the Blue Jays have seen in...a really long time.
5. Brett Cecil - Cecil is not a bad pitcher, he'd be a perfectly reasonable option as most team's #5 if he only get marginally better. but there are other, better guys coming, and ultimately if Cecil breaks camp in the rotation he will simply be a placeholder. I think it's not unreasonable to think it's possible Cecil will end up in the Zep role by mid-season.
6. Kyle Drabek - he might have simply caught Ankiel Disease and there's nothing for it. I can't find a strong indicator either way. but it's POSSIBLE he will recapture what made him special and if he does, he's the guy who pushes Cecil to the 'pen.
7. other internal options include almost the entire AA rotation (and Alex said specifically all of them might play in the bigs at some point in 2012) of Jenkins, McGuire, Hutchison, and Molina. Beyond that, Luis Perez showed impressive possibilities in his first start and Carlos Villianueva preformed admirably when called upon, there's still Jesse Listch and Joel Carreno also has started throughout his minor league career and would likely be at least competent. that takes you to as many as 14 pitchers deep. The market for FA starters is far too weak for the Jays to be shopping there, and with all due respect to professional opinions such as John Farrell's - the Blue Jays do not need to add a free agent starting pitcher this off season EXCEPT one possible exception:

Yu Darvish. The more i hear, the more convinced I am that if Darvish pitches in MLB in 2012, it will be as a Blue Jay. The fit between the type of player and type of acquisition he is, and the opportunity for a transformative player to be added to the Jays' current group is astonishingly obvious. I can't imagine that Alex would see this as the one moment when you open up the vault and do what you have to do. All the more so because it's worth a tidy sum to you to be sure he's NOT pitching in NY, or Boston, or Texas or LA. The only way the Blue Jays don't win this battle is if their scouts tell them that Darvish would be an ordinary guy in the majors.

If they don't get Darvish, the only way a starter is added is via trade, and that only if he can boost another high ceiling guy like Morrow. All this said - IMO a rotation of Romero/Darvish/McGowan/Morrow/Alvarez takes a back seat to no other rotation in the majors (assuming health).

Bullpen
Closer - entirely unpredictable. Alex has spoken in terms of needing a "real" closer, terms that do not seem to conform to a lot of his other ideas concerning value of particular roles. So even though a guy like Villianeuva or Janssen might actually make a perfectly respectable 9th inning guy, don't expect that to happen. On the other hand, I think we'd all be stunned if he through a pile of money at an "established" guy like Papelbon or Rodriguez. My guess, and my prediction, is that he will compromise in the middle between the 8 figure guys and the stop-gap types (like Rauch) and take a strong run at Joe Nathan. He struggled early recovering from TJ surgery that cost him all of 2010, but from June 28 through the end of the season he was his old dominating self and he would look absolutely golden as the Blue Jays 9th inning man.

Otherwise...
I won't attempt to predict roles with certainty, but in general terms. I will also assume for the sake of this discussion that Darvish or someone else does push Brett Cecil out of the rotation, if they don't, there's a good chance that Alex will bring in someone from outside the organization to shore up the set-up options.

As far as I can see, these guys are a lock to be in the 'pen in April 2012: Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villianeuva and Brett Cecil (assuming none of them are acting as a stop-gap starter). Beyond that, Luis Perez is strongly likely to be there and Joel Carreno has a better than even chance.

With a closer, that's seven guys. But the depth beyond that is not so strong. Chad Beck got a lot of praise late in the year but is largely untested, Alan Farina will miss effectively the whole season after Tommy John surgery, Dan Farquhar is just ok, and Brad Mills was horrible in the majors. There's also Jesse Carlson if he can recover from shoulder woes (far from a sure thing). s it seems likely that Alex, even if he doesn't maneuver for a sure thing guy for the late innings, will seek to add 3 or 4 competitive guys who would give depth and competition, particularly for the younger guys. It'd be nice to have Tyler Buchholz back, eh?

One other thing here - it's possible Jon Rauch might accept arbitration. I sincerely hope he does not.

So, in summation, my look into the future (a mixture of prediction and desire) goes like this:

Get Darvish
Sign Joe Nathan
Be ready if Votto goes on the market (unlikely)
Do something about 2B, damned if I know what
Tidy up the bench, and add some serviceable depth to the bullpen.

Do that, and stay healthy, and you have the makings of a contender. Remember this, the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays won 66 games. the 2008 squad won 97. The leap Toronto needs to make is only half that large, and it WILL happen. It might not happen in 2012, and it might be five games at a time over three years instead of 15 all at once - but it's coming. and 90% of what it takes to make it happen is already in the organization.

2011 in Review: The Las Vegas 51's

2011-10-13T03:46:00.002-04:00

[last in the series]

Going to wrap this one up so that I can get on to the positional top prospect lists. Yes, there will be some awkward repetition between the two but whatchagonnado? i'll try to make those a little more projection heavy I guess.

On this team, I have to include a couple of guys who spent significant time in the majors because they also spent significant time with Las Vegas. it's difficult for me to say anything innovative about a guy you saw play a lot of games in Toronto but it seems fair to do it this way.

Let's dig in!

1. Brett Lawrie, 21, 3B, 6'0", 215
It's not an overstatement to say that there has been no more highly anticipated hitting prospect in the Jays farm system than Lawrie since at least the days when Carlos Delgado was in the minors. In fact, given the relative difference in where the team was in those days (early '90s) and the relative difference in how connected we all are now with what's happening on the farm, thanks to the internet, I'll go ahead and say he's MORE anticipated than Delgado or anyone else.
The fun thing is - he's quite probably worthy of every last bit of that hype. It's really kind of silly, after what he did in Toronto, to spend too much time gawking at the PCL stats but one thing you have to note is the relative balance in his splits. there was no weakness vs Left or Right handers, nothing different road and away to speak of, and so forth. His OPS would have led the league, had he posted qualifying at-bat totals, and BA called him the best prospect to play in the PCL this year.

2. Eric Thames, 24, LF, 6'1", 205
Not nearly as hyped As Lawrie, somewhat due to their relative ages but even beyond that, Thames posted almost exactly the same BA in Vegas as Lawrie, a higher OBP and a lower, but still very good, SLG. Had he qualified, his OPS would have been 5th in the PCL (if you count Lawrie). Thames has two areas that need work: his outfield defense which is improving but still not great, and his ability to hit LHP (he managed just a .637 OPS against lefties for the Blue Jays). I'm torn on Thames, because I love the guy. his enthusiasm and joy are almost as infectious as Lawrie's "wide open" personality, and i was hyping this guy from the day he was drafted as one to watch. But at the same time, I think ultimately Travis Snider is going to be the stud in LF for the Jays and I'm not sure how you accommodate both of them. At some point, one of these guys will either get hurt badly, fall apart completely, or get traded.

3. David Cooper, 24, 1B, 6'0" 200
Cooper is not, in the opinion of almost everyone including myself, the third best prospect on this list - but in credit to the results he got and the playing time he amassed, he's got to rank this high on a team-review list. Cooper led the PCL in hitting and OBP and doubles (and as we saw with Thames, the Vegas park tends to inflate doubles and slightly suppress homers (relative to the league). Yet he was not counted at all on BA's list of the 20 best prospects in the league. Cooper has earned a reputation as a guy with a pretty much league average ceiling as a hitter, and he's not a particularly good fielder (some would call him "bad"). He's going to have to fight that perception his whole career unless he does something to put himself on the next level. I anticipate a Dan Johnson like career.

4. Adam Loewen, 27, RF/1B, 6'6", 235
Sticking with the focus on what a player did for the 51's, you have to recognize Loewen. He was second only to Cooper in doubles over the whole league, his splits were good, and if you take away his slow start in April, his slash lines go to .317/.407/.532/.939 which would have been 10th in the league. YES he's much older than anyone else, but as has been repeatedly pointed out, he's a special case. He has less than 40 more minor league at-bats than 21 year old Lawrie. I don't know exactly how the Jays roster-construction will break down next year, but depending on potential departures, they could do a lot worse than having a bench got who can play an above average Rf and 1B and a competent CF on the bench.

5. Adeiny Hechavarria, 22, SS, 5'11", 180
Going against my normal policy here, as Hech accumulated over 4 times as many games played in AA as with Vegas. But his accomplishments in Vegas were certainly thrilling enough to justify this choice. in terms of actual prospect ceiling, only Lawrie on this list is clearly better and Hech looked like that kind of guy during his 25 game stay in the PCL. So good was he, in fact, that if you pro-rate his counting stats to the total that at-bats David Cooper had, he'd have over 30 more hits. Though, despite the misleading slugging percentage he was much more a singles guy. It's easy and simple to discount the huge difference in offense between AA (where his OPS was a meager .622) and his explosion in AA as due to the well known kindness of the PCL to hitters.
The problem with that was that Hech turned his offensive game around over two weeks BEFORE his promotion to Las Vegas. Beginning on July 27, when he went 7/11 in a double header day, Hech put up theses slash lines before his promotion: .375/.417/.518/.935 - which was remarkably unlike anything that had come before that date. One the one hand, you do have to be REALLY aware of the SSS caveat (just under 40 games in all) but on the other hand, for a guy struggling to stay over .600 to suddenly burst out with something so remarkably unlike his previous work tends to make you suspect that there was some underlying change in his approach, as opposed to a simple run of excellent luck. perhaps no hitter in the system will be more closely watched in 2012 as Jays-fans seek to get a read on what we really have here.

And on the mound...

1. Brad Mills, LHP, 26
Alas, poor Brad, ye doth outpitch every other starter in the PCL, then getteth thy hat handed to thee in the majors, whither shall ye advance? Not for the Blue Jays, in my estimation. Mills is probably, ultimately, a guy with a Dana Eveland ceiling. The only way he has a chance to beat the odds as a major leaguer is to get himself hence to a very pitcher friendly park like San Diego. And then he'll still be fringy. But hey, he did everything the 51's could have asked for and you have to tip your hat to that.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, 23
Technically a graduate of the farm system, having lost his rookie eligibility in the majors, Drabek's position on the depth chart put him in the position of being a minor leaguer next April unless he re-boosts his status in the spring. Drabek is a complete enigma in that the jays insisted he was making progress in Vegas despite the ugly numbers, while fans just couldn't see it - not in Vegas and not convincingly in September in Toronto (one hopeful appearance followed by a disastrous one). There's no way to predict if he's one of those rare guys who just completely lost it (as Rick Ankiel did) or if he will recover the form that made him one of the top SP prospects in baseball just one year ago.

3. Luis Perez, LHP, 26
Here's an interesting situation. A year ago, I mused at times that he was the sort of guy you could slide off the 40 man roster when you needed a spot. not that he was bad in my eyes or anything, but he was also not exactly setting off my "watch this guy!" alarms either. I had him at #77 on my master list over the winter and I was particularly concerned about the BB:K ratios in AA in 2010. But, as is usually the case, the professional evaluaters see things that don't come across on stat sheets. He made some stride in Vegas this year, particularly in improving his K rate back to previous levels, but the walk totals were still troubling.
When the Blue Jays recalled him and tossed him into the bullpen, my expectations were low. Again, I was wrong. On August 27, despite a couple of ugly run ins with the Red Sox, he had a 3.29 ERA over 31 appearances and 52.2 innings pitched. His K rate was high, his walk rate was manageable, and he'd earned the confidence of his manager. So much so that he'd been handed a spot in the rotation and had responded with 6 one-hit innings at Oakland on August 21.
But September opened with three consecutive very ugly appearances which skewed his final totals. Sixteen runs in 7.2 IP will do that to you. But make no mistake, even though his final ERA was up over 5, it in no way represents the vast majority of his work in the majors. If you are thinking I didn't say much about what he did in AAA, it's because if a pitcher can manage to be just average in the PCL you take that as a win. There's really nothing that jumps out at you about his record there that I've not mentioned.

Also, take passing note of... Danny Farquhar (24) who's a side-arming reliever that has some chance of being a useful major leaguer, and Ron Uviedo (24) who never makes anyone's prospect lists but who had solid ratios in a tough league.

2011 in Review: New Hampshire FisherCats

2011-10-08T23:46:00.003-04:00

Getting right to the chase tonight:

1. Travis d'Arnaud, 22, C, 6'2" 195
I won't be the first to observe, with this writing, that Travis d'Arnaud, while certainly a coveted player, was clearly the "third man" among the three prospects the jays ultimately obtained from the Phillies for Roy Halladay.. It's been reliably reported that the Jays have had their eye on d'Arnaud all along, penciling him in as their third draft choice (and #38 overall) in the 2007 draft before the Phillies took him at #37. In 2008, in his first full season, d'Arnaud impressed scouts while playing in the Phillies system with stats that, looking back, ought to look very familiar to Blue Jays' prospect hounds. let me show you something kinda neat. Here are two players, refereed to as A & B - one of course is obviously d'Arnaud. Both players played some or all of their age 19 season in short-season ball.

A: .305/.367/.464/.831; 239 AB, 18 doubles, 1 triple, 6 homers, 23 walks, 39 strikeouts
B: .298/.396/.438/.834; 235 AB, 11 doubles, 8 triples, 2 homers, 34 walks, 41 strikeouts

Both players then advanced to to full season low-A ball in their age 20 season:

A: .255/.319/.419/.738; 482 AB, 38 doubles, 1 triple, 13 HR, 41 walks, 75 strikeouts
B: .256/.320/.355/.675; 383 AB, 17 doubles, 6 triples, 3 homers, 37 walks, 74 strikeouts

The valley was a bit lower for the second guy, particularly in terms of power production, but still - that's kinda spooky, no? Make a note - the second guy is Carlos Perez, don't forget about him. Anyway, moving on.
Travis suffered another setback in 2010 when, after a very hot start, he had issues with his back that sidelined him for over a month, the reoccurred later and shortened his season. overall he only played in about half the team's games that year. That provoked a lot of question, including for me, about how he'd hold up over a full season behind the plate. This year he put those fears to rest and made himself into one of the 3 or 4 best catching prospects in baseball, one of the very best prospects in his league, and one of the very best in the Jays loaded system.

2. Anthony Gose, 22, CF, 6'1" 190
(played most of season at 21)
In the Baseball America report on the best prospects in the Eastern League, mega-prospect (and #1 draft pick) Bryce Harper was #1, as you might expect. Number two? d'Arnaud. Number three? You guessed it, one Anthony Gose. Perhaps the biggest challenge for me as I seek to rank the Jays prospects this fall is Gose v. Marisnick. I have to report that I don't think there is a definitive "right answer" on that question. and you all know how much I droll over Marisnick. Gose is another product of the Halladay trade, albeit via a much more circuitous route. Gose was the player the Jays negotiated for until the last minute as the second player they wanted (after the Phillies had taken Dom Brown off the table) and it was only with reluctance that they took Michael Taylor instead (and that only after having ensured they could flip him to Oakland for Brett Wallace.
When the Phillies later included Gose in the deal which would net them Roy Oswalt from the Astros, Alex Anthopoulos didn't take time to refresh his cup of coffee before picking up the phone to convince the Astros to take Wallace for Gose.. Alex has been quoted as saying that special players at up the middle positions are very hard to obtain, which is why he went hard after Gose. The young man certainly did his part in 2011 to confirm that view. Gose still needs to refine the hit tool a bit more, and his power progress is not complete (one assumes the Jays prefer him to have SOME pop in his bat) but his walk rate was excellent (particularly for a guy who struck out over 150 times) and he stole an incredible 70 bases (against only 15 CS) which was second only to Cincinnati's "Flash" Hamilton. (yes, I just made that nickname up - just go with it ok?).

Some have speculated Gose could be in a Jays uniform by late next summer, but I'll make the argument that the Jays will go slow with him because they have no less than four players they need to sort out in LF next year, two of them you guys who still have upside that needs exploring. Colby Rasmus will be a fixture in CF as well. Barring injury, I'm going to suggest that Gose might well return to NH for most of the first half of the year and get a mid-season promotion to AAA - and quite possibly begin 2013 there as well and wait for events to unfold in his favor. Another year and a half to see what comes of Rasmus and snider (and to a lesser extent Thames) will give them a much better basis for deciding how the go forward in this embarrassment of riches (made the more-so by the fact that Marisnick will, even taking one level at a time, be only a year or so behind him.

3. Moises Sierra, 22, RF, 6'0" 225
Sierra was signed out of the Dominican in 2005, and was a guy with tools who was still in need of a ton of refinement over the first three seasons. in 2009 he took his first significant step forward, boosting his BA over 40 points, and his OBP over 60 points from the previous season. After finishing the season hot he appeared poised to really break out in 2010, before a series of injuries devastated that season. In 2011, he came back healthy and consolidated those gains while adding in a decent helping of previously-missing power. Still, make no mistake, Sierra still has some noticeable rough edges. He's got the best OF arm, possibly, in all of professional baseball but he's not rated a great defender overall (though he's got the tools to be); he's very quick, but not a skilled base-stealer (16 steals, 14 times caught); the batting average could still tick upwards a bit. He was second on the team in homers (to d'Arnaud) but he faded in July and August so stamina might have been an issue coming off a lost season. if he plays well in Vegas (assuming he's not traded) then he adds another name to the crowded OF situation in the Spring of 2013.

4. Mike McDade, 22, 1B, 6'1 260
McDade is no one's idea of svelte, but he earned a reputation as an excellent fielder for the league champion FisherCat squad. and early in the year it looked as if McDade might just be defying those who pointed to his bad body and putting himself on the prospect map. During the first half of the season he had an .880 OPS and 14 homers (in 88 games). After the break, his production crashed. He hit only 2 homers (in 37 games) and posted a .561 OPS over that stretch. That's some massive regression. The mitigating factor here is that reports suggest he played the entire second half with a bum knee (I know I don't know why he didn't get it treated either) and there's a reasonable possibility they knee is what killed his offense. If the first half effort was a treue representation, then seeing how hoe lights up Vegas should be a treat next year.

5. Yan Gomes, 24, C, 6'2" 215
Overlooked in a system which had, until JPA graduated, no less than 4 excellent catching prospects, Yan Gomes just kept plugging along doing what he does. The Brazilian turned Tennessee Vol (he took over from JP as the starting catcher for the Volunteers) started slow, and was forced by the presence of d'Arnaud to get more at-bats than he would otherwise have liked playing 1B and DH. Still, the 2009 (10th round) draft pick picked it up and by the end of the year was rivaling McDade in production. Consider this comparison of counting stats, if you pro-rate Gomes to the same number of at bats as McDade:

McDade: 484 AB - 136 H - 37 doubles - 16 homers - 74 RBI - 28 BB - 104 K
Gomes: 484 AB - 121 H - 32 doubles - 23 homers - 89 RBI - 44 BB, 132 K

Gomes, in my opinion, has a shot to be a fairly decent reserve catcher in the big leagues some day.

and on the mound...

1. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, 21
Alvarez served notice on the AL so effectively this season that i frankly am not sure how many words I need to bother with here. But what you need to know, if you don't, is that Alvarez has impeccable control, is a ground-ball machine, works very quickly and has a ton of confidence. At the moment he has two excellent pitches and his third one is still a work in progress, but he's gotten such great results with the two that if the third is never more than a show-me pitch then he will still be fine. don't, however, expect him to ever get up into the 8 or 9 K:9 ratio neighborhood. He probably could if he wanted to, but he's taken a page from Doc and he realizes that a quick ground ball out conserves pitches and allows him to go deeper into games. It's exciting to contemplate the idea that he's done with the minor leagues.

2. Joel Carreno, RHP, 24
Another pitcher who had no problem with the AL, though in his case in the bullpen, Carreno has battled the perception he wasn't this good his whole career (in contrast to Alvarez who's been on our radar for years). He's been a starter his entire career before coming to Toronto but it's been the common perception that if he reached the majors it would be as a reliever. He's been a remarkably consistent high-strikeout pitcher, who did have an uptick in walks in 2011, but counterbalanced that with a noticeable drop in hits per nine so that his WHIP was perfectly in line with the previous three seasons. His major league sample of 11 innings is far too small to read anything into, but there's no reason to think given his career in the minors that he can't at least be a solid reliever.

3. Chad Jenkins, RHP, 23
The Blue Jays' first round pick in 2009 (20th overall), Jenkins has been plagued by skepticism from prospect watchers pretty much from draft day onward. It's not that he's a BAD pitcher, it's just that he consistently gives the impression of having a relatively low ceiling. Fans tend to expect their first rounders to be better than 4-5 starters, so he's battling the perception of having been over-drafted, and also it doesn't help that other pitchers are blowing past him on the prospect charts. Jenkins, too, is a ground-ball pitcher with less than eye-popping strikeout numbers, and it would be unfair to praise that quality in other pitchers without recognizing that it can be an effective style if executed well. Another concern is his weight. It's been observed that he doesn't seem to be a big fan of conditioning, and when you combine that with the fact that he ran out of gas in both 2010 and 2011 (his ERA over his last 5.11, whereas his ERA in AA on August 11 was 3.81) it's hard to discount the possibility that it's affecting him.

4. Chad Beck, RHP, 26
There is perhaps no more unlikely guy to appear on any of these lists than Chad Beck. Beck was the organizational filler guy we got from Arizona for David Eckstien. It's true they had had their eye on him, having drafted him in the 43rd round of the 2004 draft (and failed to sign him) but expectations had to have been low. His numbers in the D'Backs chain were not anything to disrespect, but he spent his first year for the Jays as a 24 year old starter in Lansing and was not very good at all. Pitching mostly in relief the next year in Dunedin, he was considerably better - but he was 25 in A ball so no one much noticed. This year, people did. No less an unofficial scout than Pete Rose told Alex personally that Beck could do well in the majors. Apparently he's refined his offerings in the last year or so and a lot of Jays people are impressed with him enough to consider him a candidate for the 2012 bullpen in Toronto.

2011 in Review: Dunedin Blue Jays

2011-10-03T03:01:00.000-04:00

One of the tricky things about a series like this is that the talent distribution over the organization was not even - it never is. The other tough thing is the players who appeared on multiple teams, which happened particularly among pitchers in the Blue Jays system. In this case, the five best pitchers to make an appearance in Dunedin all had a noticeable number of starts in New Hampshire. The temptation is to mention each player at the highest level they attained, but three of those pitchers didn’t reach double figures in starts at AA and really are more appropriately discussed here.

It also helps that the NH list is crowded and this one is, really, kinda thin without Drew Hutchison, Nestor Molina, and Deck McGuire. Read on.

1. AJ Jimenez, 21, C, 5'11" 200
Jimenez did not, in fact, have the best stat line in Dunedin, but there are circumstances. Clearly he’s the best prospect among hitters on the team. There’s really not even anyone else who deserves to be in that conversation. Second, he’s three years younger than the only other guy who would even make you hesitate, and third, he’s a skilled catcher besides the offense he provides. He makes very good contact, has respectable doubles power (which is thought to still have room for growth)runs well for a catcher, and doesn’t strike out too much (for the age and level).

2. Brad Glenn, 24, OF, 6'2", 220
Glenn is at least a year too old for Hi-A ball. But he led the league in home runs - in fact he wasn’t really challenged as he jumped out to an early lead - and that’s not nothing. I’ve not see any glowing reports on his defense but he spent a decent amount of time in RF which s a sign he’s not a liability. His BB/K ratio is nothing to get you excited either. On the surface, he seems to be one of those guys that you are going to be really skeptical can handle the step up to AA, but he might surprise us.

3. Sean Ochinko, 23, C/3B/1B, 5'11", 205
Ochinko was the Webster Award winner for Lansing in 2010, and while it’s always been assumed that long term he won’t catch in the majors - that kind of respect for a guy who’s still listed as a catcher was something worth noting. In 2011 he got off to a very cold start in April and early may and, for what it’s worth, collected an unusually low BABiP. Over the balance of the season he recovered his previous power rates, and then some. But his contact rate was still below what he’d had in previous years. Ochinko, as long as the versatility remains viable, might end up being a useful major league player - I’d say he has a better shot at that than Glenn does. But his margin for error is just as slim.

Other names you might be wondering about: 2B Ryan Schimpf (came out of the gate, after an injury, on fire but faded badly after the break), Ofs Brian Van Kirk and Brad McElroy (both were very valuable to the D-Jays, the former with power and the latter with speed, but both were 25 so don’t expect anything)

and on the mound...

1. Drew Hutchson, RHP, 21
2011 was actually his age 20 season, his birthday was August 22, so the context of his achievements is that much more impressive. The 6'2" (and rail thin) Hutch moved from Lansing right through to New Hampshire this season with hardly a hiccup. He got off his game just a bit in late April, made a bit of adjustment in his approach, and never looked back. He racked up more than a K per IP at each level, displayed impeccable control (4.89 K/BB) and got better the longer the season went on and the higher the level he was challenged at. He was thought to have been a hard-to-sign gamble in the `15th round of the 2009 draft, and he surely got some of the money that Jake Eliopoulos and James Paxton didn’t want. That seems to be turning out pretty well, as Hutch is inarguably a Top 5 prospect in the Blue Jays loaded system. He also rocks impressive facial hair too (see photo), if that's your thing.

2. Nestor Molina, RHP, 22
As good as Hutchison was, it’s remarkable that he wasn’t the slam dunk obvious choice for #1 on this list. The tiebreaker comes down to Molina being a couple of years older, but with his backstory, the age difference becomes less relevant. Molina was a no-hit infielder who was converted to the mound in the Dominican league in 2008 and took to it immediately. Over three seasons he accumulated about 160 IP, almost all of them in relief. In that period, he struck out 129 and walked only 30. The real challenge came in 2011 when he was shifted to starting and that in his first season at Hi-A ball. Talk about picking up the gauntlet! In 18 starts in Dunedin and 5 in AA, Molina completely dominated hitters in a fashion even the most optimistic scout could not have foreseen. His BB/K ratio was over NINE to one. He walked a mere 2 in 22 innings at AA. Given his history, it’s difficult to just go ahead and pencil him in for unbroken success in the future (particularly in that he was on his way to doubling his career IP in 2011 and a lot of pitchers have to regroup (if not succumb to injury) the following year (this concern applies somewhat to Hutch as well) but you can’t not be extremely excited about the results.

3. Deck McGuire, RHP, 22
How’d you like to be Deck McGuire? First round pick, scouted as the guy who was not only an above average pitcher but A guy who’d move fast through the system. He’s possessed with a big (6'6') classic pitcher’s body and multiple quality pitches. He started his first professional season at Hi-A Dunedin and delivered perfectly praise-worthy results over 18 starts, before being promoted to AA where he was shut down by a mild injury after 4 appearances that were not embarrassing at all. And yet for all that, you can only be called the third best pitching prospect on the team. Hutch and Molina were so very good that it’s hard for McGuire to generate any excitement But in a lot of years past, he’d be on everyone’s lips when it came time to talk Jays prospects. Given his college experience and polish, it’s not impossible that if the Jays are in a tight spot early in the year he might be the first to arrive. Don’t overlook him.

Don’t sleep on: Asher Wojciechowski. He fell off a cliff in May and June (some reports suggest he fell in love with his fastball) but recovered nicely in the second half. Might move slower than one anticipated but there’s still a lot to like there.

2011 in Review: Lansing Lugnuts

2011-09-29T04:25:00.001-04:00

In the afterglow of what was likely the best regular seasons night in professional sports history, made all the more enjoyable by several rather remarkable sub-plots (and the fact that one of the Evil Empires was so throughly humiliated) it seems very anti-climatic to be doing another write up on the Jays minor league teams, but the roads must roll and there’s a lot of things on my calendar at this time of year so I had better start making up some ground.

It’s made a bit better because we no arrive at one of the more fascinating affiliates to talk about. There’s some real heft to this list, as you will see.

1. Jake Marisnick, CF, 20, 6'4" 200
It’s probably impossible for me to overstate just how much I love me some Jake Marisnick. He’s easily a Top 5 prospect in the Blue Jays organization, and he was ranked third in the MWL by Baseball America (though they also commented that any of the top five could have been #1). Not only did he have an outstanding offensive and defensive year, while accumulating sterling reports from every scout who saw him, but from May onward, he got better and better as the season progressed, posting a .983 OPS in August. Overall his final OPS was .888 and, to add to the juicy goodness here, he stole 37 bases. Given their situation in CF and RF, the Jays can afford to be patient with Marisnick, taking him one level at a time. But I don’t know if I can stand to wait until 2015 to see him competing for a job in Toronto.

2. Marcus Knecht, 21, OF, 6'1" 200
Overshadowed somewhat by Marisnick, the RH hitting Knecht is a fine hitter and a fine prospect in his own right. Pushed to LF not because he’s a poor defender but because his teammates are just that good, Knecht wore down a bit in August but overall had a fine season. The Toronto native and third round pick in the 2010 draft finished the year with an .851 OPS and solid marks across the board, with the exception of a too-high strikeout rate.

3. Michael Crouse, 20, RF, 6'4" 215
A 16th round sleeper from the 2008 draft, Crouse carries the tag of having great tools but needing polish. Coming into 2011 he had an impressive half season on his second try at the GCL to brag about, and not much else statistically speaking. It was something of a surprise that he started the year in Lansing but clearly he was up to the challenge. August was even less kind to him than to Knecht, as he missed all but six games but consider the final stat line for these three guys:

M: 118 G, 462 AB, 148 H, 27 D, 6 T, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 43 BB, 91 K, 37 SB, 8 CS
K: 121 G, 439 AB, 120 H, 34 D, 3 T, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 67 BB, 124 K, 4 BB, 3 CS
C: 101 G, 364 AB, 95 H, 26 D, 5 T, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 44 BB, 113 K, 38 SB, 8 CS

M: .320/.392/.496/..888
K: .273/.377/.474/.851
C: .261/.352/.475/.827

Clearly Jake has a much better contact rate at this point, and Knecht is considerably slower than the other two, but beyond that it’s remarkable how similar the results are in many ways. For instance, Crouse actually had a better walk rate and XBH rate than Marisnick did, despite the lower contact rate. Crouse is reportedly quite the physical specimen too.He was right there with Marisnick all season, with the exception of a noticeable slump in June.

4. Carlos Perez, 20, C, 6'0" 193
2011 was a year Perez would probably like to forget. In may ways, he got untracked offensively in only one month (July) and reportedly had some rough patches on defense as well. Overal he finished with a .675 OPS, but he came into the season with such good numbers that it’s probably wise to give him a mulligan on this season. If it’s anything the Jays have, it’s the luxury of taking their time with catching prospects.

And on the mound...

1. Sean Nolin, LHP, 21
Nolin doesn’t just have good stats but he’s got a good story to go with it. Seems the 6'5", 235 horse, who was drafted in the 6th round in 2010, had shown up after signing last year pretty out of shape, and he didn’t have much on-field success in six starts for the rookie level squad. The Jays were pleasantly surprised when a different Nolin showed up for spring training in 2011. Toned up, and pitching much more crisply, Nolin earned a spot on the Lansing roster and never looked back. He racked up 113 K in 108 IP, while posting a 3.6 ratio of strikeouts to walks and a 1.23 WHIP. Between solid results and having made an impression with his work effort, the Jays think they have something to be proud of in Nolin.

2. Casey Lawrence, RHP, 22
Ok, let me be frank - Lawrence is probably not really a prospect. His entire career will be an uphill battle against that perception. He was an undrafted free agent, signed by the Jays after the 2010 draft. Then he went right out and kicked serious ass in the NYP league, built around impeccable control. In 2011, pitching most of the year for Lansing, he maintained solid rate stats in every area, except that he gave up a much higher HR rate than in 2010. This might have been a fluke, or it might be a sign that he’s one of those guys who’s skills play well at the lower level but gets exposed as they move up. He’s one of those guys you want to root for, and that’s why i tip my rhetorical hat to him here, but he’s got a lot to overcome yet.

3. Danny Barnes, RHRP, 21
I really hesitate to include a reliever on a list like this, particularly at such a low level. As a general rule relief prospects below AA probably aren’t prospects at all. But Barnes was dominant. He struck out 13.5 per 9, while having a WHIP of 0.97 and an ERA of 2.32. He might be the exception. Impressive work for a 35th round pick.

Drew Hutchison pitched about half a season here too, but look for him on the Dunedin list. Syndergaard and Nicolino also had a few starts here but they’ve been covered.

As much as I hate to trap myself into a deadline I don’t meet, I’m hoping to get the Dunedin review up over the weekend.

2011 in Review: Vancouver Canadians

2011-09-24T19:48:00.000-04:00

Like Bluefield, it's really kind of remarkable this club made the playoffs (and in this case won a championship). In both cases the premium talent isn't very deep. both have just a bare handful of studs, some interesting sleepers, and a bunch of organizational player type. both suffered a good bit from their best players being promoted. But the September results were there. The Canadians were particularly ordinary on the offensive side.

1. Kevin Patterson, 1B, 22, 6'4", 220
Patterson was the Blue Jays 30th round pick in 2011, and any enthusiasm about his hitting has to be tempered with another look at his age. A 22 year old with any skill at all SHOULD be knocking around opposing pitching at this level. Still, Patterson was the best hitter on this team in 2011 with an OPS that would have ranked 4th in the league (.859) had he enough at bats to qualify. Patterson played in roughly half of the teams games (after destroying GCL pitching for 15 games) so one might double his counting stats to get an idea what a full season might have looked like.

2. Jon Berti, 2B, 21, 5'10", 175
There's a rule of thumb that suggests that if you are drafted as a 2B, particularly beyond the first couple of rounds (Berti was selected in the 18th in this years draft) you are really on the margins of having a future. Berti is at very best a sleeper. But he did post an impressive OPS and stole 23 bases (against five CS) and being the best hitter over the full season of the team's play, he deserves to at least be noticed.

3. Jon Jones, CF, 22, 5'' 11", 185
The speedy Jones, a 29th rounder from 2010, didn't really hit that well except for power. He's started the year in Lansing but with that impressive OF he lost out. Perhaps he resented the demotion? He did, however, hit much better after the break, and he led the team in home runs while also stealing 18. He's probably still got a better chance than some guys above him like Marcus Brisker and Kenny Wilson.

And on the mound...

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, 19 (pitched virtually entire season at 18)
It's difficult to overstate just how well regarded Syndergaard is. After seven appearance in Bluefield he made 4 excellent starts in Vancouver and then got the call to bolster the Lansing squad in the playoffs (he made 2 starts at that level). Over the three levels combined he threw 59 innings and compiled a 1.83 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 3.78 K/BB - and opponents hit .211 off of him. He's a classic power pitcher in a classic power pitcher's body, working off a fastball with excellent movement. Reportedly his secondary pitches are raw but show plenty of promise. The kid is a top 10 prospect in the Jays system and given the depth he's competing against, that's high praise. but hes worthy of it.

2.Justin Nicolino, LHP, 19
Nicolino was chosen by the staff at Baseball America as the best overall prospect in the Northwest League (Syndergaard didn't meet the playing time limits in any of the leagues he played in) and they called him a pitcher with #2 starter projection in the majors. It's easy to see why. A 2nd round pick in last years draft, the 6'3" lefty is still listed at just 160 pounds so he has room yet to grow and perhaps improve on his already impressive ability. Check out this stat line from his 12 appearances for the Canadians:
1.03 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 5.82 K/BB, 1.89 BB/9, 11 K/9, .156 BAA
He was truly a man among boys and it's puzzling that the jays didn't advance him to lansing before the very end of August.

The list for the VanCans is a short one, particularly for a playoff team. There are likely some sleepers there that haven't posted gaudy stats yet but whom we will be talking about in years to come - Remember Nestor Molina was my #46 prospect a year ago! But it's the nature of such things that it's difficult to know who that might be. Here's a combined list for the Vancouver and Bluefield teams:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Aaron Sanchez
3. Justin Nicolino
4. Chris Hawkins
5. Kevin Pillar
6. Tyler Ybarra
7. Mitch Taylor
8. Dave Rollins
9/10 (tie) Kevin Patterson and Art Charles

Next up, the mighty Lansing Lugnuts.

He's Smarter Than You

2011-09-19T01:21:00.000-04:00

And don't you forget it.

Hot off the presses today (well, yesterday by the time I get thisposted) comesa story by John Tomase of the Boston Herald about AlexAnthopoulos and his philosophy of team building with some remarkablequotes from AA which are sure to spark a lot of discussion amongrosterbating fans pining away to see Rogers' cash dispersed liberallyon the Free Agent market.

It was only a few days before when local writer Jeff Blair kindlethe fire when he stated (without a supporting quote) that PaulBeeston would not sign off on a contract longer than five years, nowAA seems to add more fuel to the flame with comments which can't bemusic to the ears of those penciling Fielder or Pujols (and everyonce in a while both!) into the Blue Jays 2012 lineup.

Here's the direct quote:

“I think we’ve had a lot of really good playershere,” Anthopoulos said. “Obviously it’s hard to getthe great ones, especially in free agency. One, they don’t get tofree agency. Two, you normally pay them more years and more dollarsthan you have to. And three, you’re getting them — not at the endof their careers — but a little bit older. It’s whatwe need to do with the division we’re in and the parameters we haveto work with.

“If I was the GM of some other team in some otherdivision, everything would be different. Everything we do is tailoredto the parameters of Toronto, Rogers (Centre), Canada, AL East,Boston, New York, Tampa, Baltimore. Put it all in a pot and say, ‘OK,what’s the best game plan?’ ”

“The trade route where we are right now is importantfor us,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s going to be a big part of whatwe’re doing and it is. Free agency is the last route wewant to go. At some point we’ll have to start delving into it alittle more, but I still want to try to avoid it at all costs.If we try to do this through the draft, it’s going to be a while.And it’s not going to work and we’re not going to get it to timeproperly.”

How much clearer does he need to make it? Don't get me wrong,would I love to see Pujols play out a Hall-of-Fame career in a Jaysuniform? Heck yes. And I'm not worried about the price. But giventhese comments, it's hard to see AA getting in on any premium FA withthe possible exception of Darvish who's obviously not yourconventional situation. And even that is possibly a long shot.

So I, for one, am going to quit entertaining that kind ofspeculation. If he wants to surprise me I'll enjoy it but until then,I'm going with the assumption that any FA signing would be somethingsimilar to the signings of Rauch and Dotel last winter and anypremium acquisition will come, as he indicates, via trade. And I'm okwith that. I admit it's kind of irrational, but I really had ratherslay the dragons with guys who feel like “real” Blue Jays – theones who we're acquired with genius, and not just cash – than tohave to concede a big portion of the credit to some FA import.

So, in solidarity with his comment, let me suggest who thoughtsregarding potential deals which are in the forefront of my off-seasondaydreams:

Joey Votto/Yonder Alonso – Votto is THE answer, trade wise, to the Pujols/Fielder meme. He's also not necessarily available and will be very expensive if he can be had. Still, with the Reds sitting on a premium 1B prospect, looking at the potential that Votto would leave via FA in two years (or require a mega-deal) and calculating that there's much more value in dealing him with two years of control rather than one, I certainly think it's possible. And one doesn't need to go even that deep in calculating why the Blue Jays would covet a premium talent who's a native of the area. On the other hand, if the Reds insist on trying to keep Votto for years to come, then it's time they faced the reality that Alonso is no outfielder (let alone a 3B). The jays would certainly have to be interested in a premium prospect who fell more in the age range of the other young core players they have assembled. He'd also come considerably cheaper.
Gordon Beckham - This one falls much more in the area of reclamation projects, and only really makes sense if the ChiSox are at the end of their patience with the young 2B. It would be a gamble, for sure, but AA is known to like the guy a lot and I'm kind of the opinion that it's better ultimately to try to get him back on an upward path than to hope and pray Johnson or Hill can put together a good year.

I'm sure I could scrounge up some otherintriguing possibilities – the biggest argument against these twois they make so much sense that AA will probably be doing somethingelse entirely – but as much as I'm sure at some point we'll have togive up a prospect I really love, I still like the trade plan myself,much more so that the idea of throwing big cash at free agents. Overthe entire history of the Jays, the number of premium free agentsignings I have swooned over has been very very small. I haven'tfound a reason to change that preference.

2011 in Review: The Bluefield Blue Jays

2011-09-17T12:54:00.004-04:00

The Blue Jays affiliates boasted an impressive five teams in the playoffs this year and Bluefield was among them. all props to the team, and kudos to Dennis Holmberg for winning Manager of the Year. But while there is real player development value in giving the kids playoff experience, ultimately for the purposes of this review is targeted to individual results, and that's where I'm going to focus my attention lest I bloviate even more than usual.

1. Chris Hawkins, LF, 20, 6''2", 195
Hawkins played most of the season at 19, and while he was the 2nd best hitter on the team, in terms of results, Hawkins was a third round pick (in 2010) and the other guy went in the 32nd round so I'm gonna give Hawkins the benefit of the doubt here. He has nothing to apologize for on his results though. The k's are not a bit high as one might expect given his age and experience, he showed good power and a very respectable OBP. There's a lot to like here.

2. Kevin Pillar, RF, 22, 6'0" ,200
The "other guy" is Pillar. Pillar hit for more power, made more contact, and struck out less than Hawkins. so why is he not #1? Besides the relative draft positions - age. Pillar had a bunch of success, but he spent the whole season at a level 2-3 spots lower than a 22 year old normally finds himself. Which raises questions about how seriously the Jays see him as a prospect. Still, the Blue Jays minor league field coordinator Doug Davis said in a Batter's Box interview that Pillar has an off-the-charts make-up which made him a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. Sometimes these guys do come from unexpected places and mate reasonable talent with tremendous drive and turn out to be something worth watching. By rights, he ought to be skipped all the way to Dunedin next year but he probably has to establish himself at Lansing first. Still, if he's not in Dunedin by the end of 2012 you know he's one of those low-level mirages.

3. Art Charles, 1B, 20, 6'6", 221
The big man on the team led the squad in homers, and RBI, but also posted well over a strikeout per game which is a rate which will expose him badly as he moves up the ladder. He did also lead the team in walks, so there may well be something there, but I'm sure the Jays are really going to be working on better contact without losing the power. As with Pillar, I have no real information on his defensive skills.

4. Dan Arcila, 2B/SS, 21, 6'1" 170
Listed as a SS, he played 2B most of the time for Bluefield to accommodate slow-developing bonus-baby Gus Pierre. I can't really tell you whether or not Arcila has the defensive chops to play SS if the opportunity were available. I can tell you that he had a higher slugging percentage than Charles (though with considerably fewer walks and K's).

5. Gutavo Pierre, SS, 19, 6'2", 193
Pierre opened the season in Lansing where his defense completely disappeared (an incredible 36 in 56 games) and his bat was, as you might expect, non-existent. Shifted to Bluefield after the short-season teams began play, Pierre worked from the DH position for many games early on as the team decided to let him focus on one side of the ballgame. His bat did recover moderately, (though he did fade over the course of the season) and his error rate fell to 8, but with so many games at DH, that has to be understood in context. There's still a ton of work to do here.

And on the mound . . .

1. Aaron Sanchez, RHSP, 19
Stat aside, the obviously most talented arm in Bluefield, once Syndergaard moved up at least, was Sanchez. The pitcher Mel Queen said was the best prospect he'd seen since Chris Carpenter was brilliant at times, and wobbly at others. Overall the biggest concern is refining his command.

2. Tyler Ybarra, LHP, 21
Ybarra was a lowly 46th round choice in the 2008 draft, albeit understood as a potential sleeper. He got a mere 20 innings in 2009 in the GCL and lost all of 2010 to injury. He was working his way back in 2011 and boy did he ever. He started out in relief, then worked his way into a "tandem start" arrangment in which he pitched several innings as would a SP. down the stretch he did get five starts and the Jays seem likely to continue to use him in that role.He's notable for his nifty 2.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .200 BAA, and 3.38 K/BB ratio. Ybarra certainly doesn't have the pedigree, but he put himself on the radar at est in 2011.

3. Mitch Taylor, LHSP, 19
The 7th round selection in the 2010 draft contrast with Sanchez in that his calling card is a much better refined strike-throwing ability. His stats are somewhat reminiscent of Bobby Bell's from a couple of years back though being left handed should give him a higher ceiling. On the other hand, he was sent home early and unofficial reports suggested it was a discipline/coaching issue.

4. Dave Rollins, LHSP, 21
Being somewhat older, and having been a 24th round choice, I'm a bit more skeptical of Rollins than of the two above him. However, on the other side, Rollins is more advanced than Joe Musgrove who was taken much higher so he deserves props. Rollins pitched almost 36 innings over two levels and walked a mere 3 batters while striking out 29.

There are fewer names here partly because most of the high achievers didn't stick around and will appear on the Vancouver or Lansing list and partly because with a newly created level within the Jays farm system, there is a bit more filler on this team (and Vancouver) than would be ideal.. But don't be surprised if some sleepers from this bunch emerge.

2011 in Review: The GC Blue Jays

2011-09-11T04:36:00.000-04:00

[First in a Series]

The GCL team can in many ways be the hardest team to do such a review on because of a couple of circumstances which are more common at this level than at the higher levels. First, it's much more transitory. Depending on age, a good prospect might just wet their feet here before moving on, or he might be a regular who accumulates a lot of playing time. Secondly, it can serve as a sort of taxi squad to the upper level teams.
Fortunately, this isn't going to get in my way too much because those who were promoted after a small sample can usually be addressed on their other team, and the "taxi squad" guys are almost always simply organizational filler anyway.

I'm going to begin this review with the offensive side of the game. I'm really not in a position to tell you much of anything about defense beyond what may be inferred by who played what position the most, but that can tell us something about how the Blue Jays organization views their abilities, and we can then move on to the accumulated offensive stats. This, then, is one writers take on the top prospects among non-pitchers.

1. Jake Anderson, RF, 18, 6'4" - 190
Anderson was the Blue jays' 2nd overall pick in the 2011 draft and, as seems obligatory for a draftee of his station, was compelled to "hold out" until the signing deadline but when he finally got on the field, he was an absolute star. There's a sample size caveat here, because some considered Anderson a bit of a signability choice at that pick, and it was only nine games. Still, a 1.098 OPS from such a highly drafted player has to be respected. It will be interesting to see if the Jays advance him to Vancouver or even Lansing next spring as the aggressively advanced Marcus Kenect or if they will send him to Bluefield in a more measured approach.

2. DJ Thon, SS, 19, 6'2" - 185
Thon was, as you know if you are one of the few regular readers of this blog (or one of the many readers of sites like those in the sidebar) considered a late-first round talent who was unsignable last year when the Jays stole him in the 5th round and accomplished the supposed impossible by getting his name on a contract. He didn't play at all last spring, and he reportedly missed a lot of time in extended spring training with what the Blue jays reported as a "blood disorder." While the details are unreported, I'm going to presume until I've heard differently that it's because of this that Thon seemed to lack endurance this year. He was good in June, excellent in July (.911 OPS while starting almost as many games at DH as at SS) and helpless in August (.385 OPS while playing 15 of 17 starts at SS). it seems reasonable to give him a mulligan on that August and continue to expect big things.

3. Eric Arce, LF, 19, 5'9" - 204
Physically evocative of Matt Stairs, Arce was the most prolific hitter to play essentially the full season for the GCL squad. Though apparently not a polished defender (he was the guy who appeared most at DH as well as in LF) that might be because he was drafted as a catcher.The LH hitting Arce was drafted by the Jays in the latter rounds (27th and 25th respectively) of both the 2010 and 2011 draft (Arce walked away from his college team in time to retain his ability to re-enter the draft). While you have to take anything done by such a late pick at the lower levels with a huge grain of salt, you have to respect Arce - after all he did only set a league record for home runs with 14 (which would be more impressive if you'd ever heard of the previous record holder). More impressively, he drew 38 walks in 49 games which is eye-catching for a power hitter. He was promoted to Bluefield at the very end of the season no doubt for the playoff ride. Expect him to move slowly through the system as the Jays explore whether he's legit, or a mirage.

4. Dalton Pompey, CF, 18, 6'1" - 170
The Ontario native was drafted in the 16th round of the 2010 draft and is viewed by some as an interesting sleeper. Reportedly an impressive defender, a skilled base-runner (19 steals, never caught in the GCL this year, he was 4 for 5 in Bluefield) and able to draw a walk (24 in 42 games), Pompey does need to increase his contact rate to really put himself on the map, but he has plenty of time. He struggled to put the bat on the ball after his August 10 promotion to Bluefield, but the good eye continued to be apparent. look for him back there in 2012.

5. Santiago Nessy, C, 18, 6'2" - 230
The conundrum with Nessy is obvious - can a guy his size stay behind the plate? That which constitutes solid offensive development for a catcher can become very mediocre if that same player is at 1B or DH. At this point Nessy has doubles power and strikes out far too often, but he had a respectable OPS for a Venezuelan bonus baby playing in his first year stateside. Given what they paid him, the jays surely see something in him but my guess is by the time he hits Dunedin, the tools of ignorance will be in his past.

6. Jorge Vega-Rosado, SS/2B, 19, 5'8" - 175
AKA Chino Vega (which I shall henceforth call him so get used to it). Vega would seem, at first glance, to be an insignificant guy. A slender 5'8" guy drafted in the 28th round, how good could he be, right? Well, the Jays thought enough of his potential to give him a offer for $200,000 which enticed him out of college by mid-June. Playing mostly 2B out of deference to Thon, Vega rewarded that decision with solid contact (.317 BA) respectable pop and solid speed (22 SB in 26 attempts) while playing reportedly solid defense. Little guys will always have to earn respect but Vega has nothing to apologize for so far.

Others to watch: Nico Taylor (OF), Justin Atkinson (3B/SS), and Seth Conner (3B)

Turning to the pitchers . . .

1. Adonys Cardona, RHSP, 17
The Venezuelan bonus baby - recipient of a #2.8 million contract in 2010 - was not lights out this year, his first in the states, but it was more than respectable for a 17 year old who's clearly the brightest light among pitchers on this roster. The figure to look at here, rather than ERA, is the almost 3:1 ratio of K's to walks. He also struck out more than a hitter per IP and had a solid ground out ratio. He's overshadowed by the plethora of more advances pitching prospects in the system so far, which is proper - but don'tforget his name.

2. Griffin Murphy, LHSP, 20, 6'3" - 200
Murphy was selected as a highly regarded 2nd round pick in 2010 and had an inconsistent year overall in 2011, especially for a pitcher who was 20 on opening day in the GCL. Some of his ending numbers were respectable, but the opposition made too much contact against him. On this squad, he remains highly ranked because of his draft status, but as he advances he will have to step up his game if he wants to remain in the "best of" conversations.

3. Joe Musgrove, RHSP, 18, 6'5" 230
Musgrove was the Blue Jays third overall pick in this years draft, and signed quickly. Mostly regarded as something of a sign-ability reach, that doesn't mean he's without talent. Musgrove put up a WHIP under 1.00 in the GCL and a solid BAA. That combined with his draft position earns him this much respect.

4. Tucker Jensen, 22, 6'2" - 205
Jensen was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the independent leagues and the climb for such players is always incredibly steep and few there be that make it. Jensen was moved to higher levels twice and stumbled each time, but - while he was old for the GCL - his stats there clearly outpaced those of anyone else on his team and absent another highly regarded teammate with a significant sample size, I'll tip my metaphorical cap to him here.

Other names you might hear again: Colby Brussard (RHRP), Jeremy Gabryszwski (RHSP), Randall Thompson (RHSP)

Combined ranking:
1. Cardona
2. Anderson
3. Thon
4. Murphy
5. Musgrove
6. Arce
7. Pompey
8. Nessy
9. Vega
10. Jensen

Next up: The Bluefield Blue Jays

Out of Innings?

2011-09-05T15:52:00.004-04:00

At this time of year, in recent seasons, the minds of the obsessive followers of teams out of contention (and some of those fans of teams in contention) begin to muse about whether a given young pitchers is being worked to hard. This became a front burner issue for the fans after SI's Tom Verducci several years ago detailing what he called the YAE (Year After Effect). Verducci made the case that for pitchers under 25, a team should not expect them to exceed 30IP over their previous career high. to do so, he argues (not unpersuasively) invites injury in the year after they are pushed to an excessive high.

The Jays management have discussed a somewhat modified position on this, in that they try to limit an increase in workload to 20% over the previous career high, though this is not set in stone, and not necessarily limited to those under 25 (they applied the limit to Brandon Morrow last year).

So with that in mind, let's review the important pitchers in the Blue Jays system and see where they stand:

Toronto-

Romero is very safe. Morrow and Cecil both have about 30 IP left and should not exceed that by any significant amount. Luis Perez is almost 60 IP short of his previous career high. Henderson Alvarez has about 3 more starts in him before he hits his theoretical ceiling (he shouldn't exceed 150 IP) - this means someone else should take his last turn.
If we assume Kyle Drabek is a Toronto pitcher for the purpose of this exercise, he's got about 30 more IP in the tank so there's no issue there.

Las Vegas-

Their season is finished, and no one there really matters except Brad Mills anyway. He did not exceed his previous career high this year.

New Hampshire-

Begins their playoff run tomorrow, and has no less than 4 pitchers worth worrying about.
Chad Jenkins: Jenkins has about 3 IP until he gets to 120%, but he's a horse and the Jays will surely let him pitch as long as he's effective in the playoffs (which would only be two starts in any case). In theory he could exceed the "cap" by a dozen innings or so.
Deck McGuire: Thanks to a recent injury, Deck has about 10 IP in the tank. One assumes he will be handled gently in his first playoff start and any excess of the cap will be insignificant.
Nestor Molina: Is already almost 50 IP past his previous career high (81 IP). whatever damage will be done has been done.
Drew Hutchison: Has more than doubled his total from last year. i think it's safe to assume he's well beyond any he might have accumulated in high school. It's worth remembering that in his case, as well as Molina's, we are not privy to how many innings they may have pitched in unofficial settings.

Dunedin-
Only one guy in the playoff rotation to worry about here, everyone else is a fringe prospect, and that is
Asher Wojciechowski: Combining his last year of college and the 12 IP he got as a pro in 2010, he still has about 7 IP in the tank. Any exceeding of the cap will be in the single digits.

Lansing-
We're down to dealing with high schoolers here. There's no way to find out how many IP Noah Syndergaard or Aaron Sanchez had in high school. But I don't think the Verducci rule is generally applied in this context, since it's hardly practical to limit a first pros season to 75 IP or some such.

So, in summation, give someone else Alvarez's last start and there is no real issue which remains to be addressed. We'll have to watch Molina and hutch next year to see if there's some ill effect.

by the way, random thought -

McGowan was activated today, Huzzah! He's available to pitch tomorrow, and I, for one, would like to see Perez given the first five IP and (unless he's doing something special) give way to McGowan to start the sixth.
Brett Lawrie delivered the walk-off win with an 11th inning HR just now. is there nothing this young man can't do? (It's sure not defense either).
Speaking of today's game - kudos to Henderson Alvarez (and the bullpen) for stifling the league's best offense today. He's making a heck of a case to break camp in the rotation next year.

Upcoming plans - It is my intention to do a fairly through review of each minor league squad, starting at the lowest level (not counting the Dominican) and working my way up. This will take a bit of time and research to do right, but I hope to be able to do no less than one a week and preferably two. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: September recalls

Shi Davidi has the scoop on what players the jays will add on the September recalls and it provokes some questions. All the conversations I've seen on this subject proceed from the assumption that such players have to be added to the 40 man roster if they are not already on it. After this morning's addition of Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays only had one opening, yet three of the recalls were not previously on the 40 man roster. Either these assumptions were wrong (unlikely) or the Jays have other roster maneuvers afoot to open up space.

Here's the list:

Kyle Drabek
Brad Mills
Danny Farquhar
Chad Beck
David Cooper
Adam Loewen

Loewen, Farquhar, and Beck were not previously on the 40 man roster. My tentitive speculation is that PJ Walters may have been cut (a reliever already on the 40 who didn't get a recall while two others did seems vulnerable) and Travis Snider was moved to the 60-day DL (assuming that can happen this late in the season). That would create the room necessary. There doesn't seem to be another obvious candidate to be cut, unless you read a lot into the glaring fact that Darin Mastroianni isn't on that list.

Catching Up

2011-08-31T22:39:00.003-04:00

Gird thy loins for one of those intermittent omnibus posts wherein I try to cover all the relevant events of the last week or so. Girded? Good . . .

Item: Hill/McDonald for Johnson. On the surface, this would seem to be worthy of extensive commentary but it's more straightforward than it might seem. if you lay aside the emotionalism and focus strictly on roster management machinations, it's easy to see why both tams made the move. Both second basemen were having disheartening years, with Hill desperately in need of something to jar him out of the ditch (if anything could); both are pending free agents who will be at least B types (Johnson projects as a fringe candidate for "A" status in the AL but not the NL); both were nominally potential targets for a FA signing by the team for whom they now play.

Each team gets an opportunity for an up-close look at the new guy, the new guy gets a chance to see how they like the new team, the D'backs pick up a much needed SS and the Jays either avoid paying a first rounder for Johnson (if he'd have surprised and been a type A) or, alternately, potentially gain 2 picks for him if he leaves. it's been widely (and correctly) noted the jays might very ell look to bring Hill back if Johnson leaves and they are certain to bring McDonald back.

Hows it working out? In seven games in the desert Hill's OPS is .956, in seven games for the Jays Johnson is OPSing .996 - smiles all around.

Item: Henderson Alvarez demands your attention. The Roookie mowed through the Orioles for eight dominant innings tonight, and while it's true there is still development to be done, and there will be bumps in the road, he's making his case to stick in the majors next spring.

Item: Respect JP Arencibia. It might be claimed that since his hot start, he's been an offensive drag on the team, this turns out not to be true. In his first 40 games this season, his OPS was .824; in his next 34 games, possibly affected by the lingering hand injury, it fell to .505; but in the most recent 29 games, he's rebounded to hit even better than in the early going, with an .866 OPS. At this point he has a better HR/AB ratio than any starting catcher in baseball not named Brian McCann, slump included.

Item: Brett Lawrie is a God. that is all.

Item: there's growing unrest among jays fans, not unjustified, about whether Adam Lind is going to turn out to be too mediocre to be entitled to 1B in the coming years. Few have been a bigger defender of Lind than i have but this IS disconcerting. Coming into tonight, his "slump" now extends to a disturbing 61 games (.197/.238/.313/.551) and ESPN iswriting up features on why the Jays ought to go get Prince Fielder (I still prefer Pujols, for the record). We are actually past the point of wondering if Lind is valuable here and entering the territory where you begin to wonder if he has reasonable trade value. But if we could move Wells and actually get something, that's not a huge concern.

Item: I miss Colby Rasmus.

Item: Carlos Villianueva was activated today, Jon Rauch will likely be activated tomorrow, and while Alex has spoken of waiting out the AAA season, they are free to add more relievers if they see fit about an hour from now. Darn good thing.

Item: The initial AFL assignments have been made - Gose, Hechevarria, Yan Gomes, Evan Crawford, and Aaron Loup (the latter two being relief pitchers). If you don't understand, remember that teams draft slots in the AFL by position (as more than one MLB team shares an AFL team) and so the last couple of players on each squad are lesser-lights. It's worth noting that teams have the opportunity to send six, so there's an unfilled slot here - and these rosters do change. also, reports are that Gomes is taxi squad, as Cooper (I believe) was last year and so won't get a lot of at bats. That's too bad because Gomes is a hidden asset in the Jays system.

Item: Concerning September recalls, keep in mind that AA has said he would wait out the minor league seasons, which means it's probably another week before anyone but the injured players start appearing. Also, keep in mind that NH is in the playoffs so their season won't be over until 9/9 ant the earliest and could stretch as far as 9/17 - the Jays won't weaken that squad for a September recall. It's not impossible to see an AFL assigniee called up in September, but it's not common either. The question on everyone's lips is whether or not Adeiny will be in Toronto in September. I'm still inclined to think he will, for a couple of weeks or so, and then will be dispatched to the AFL before the last week of the major league season. Others you can expect to see include:
Dustin McGowan (from rehab/DL)
Raji Davis (from the DL)
Brad Mills (potentially tried in relief?)
David Cooper
Adam Loewen (if not, he's likely done in the organization)
PJ Walters (maybe . . . just for slop innings though)

That leaves the question of Kyle Drabek. I'm sure he will be IN Toronto, but whether he'll be added to the team I'm not so sure.

Item: Speaking of minor leaguers, you've probably heard by Travis d'Arnaud is Eastern League MVP, Sal Fasano in EL manager of the year, Clayton McCullough is FSL Manager of the year, Mike Redmond is MWL manager of the year, and and Bluefield's Dennis Holmberk is Appy League Manager of the year. I'm seeing a pattern here.

Item: Bluefield started their playoff series with a win tonight, New Hampshire is already qualified for the playoffs, so is Lansing; Dunedin is a game and a half up with four to play. And if Eugene holds on to win the second half title in the NWL then Vancouver is in good shape to make it too. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that never in team history has the Blue Jays organization placed five minor league teams in the playoffs.

I'm sure I probably missed something but that'll do for now.

Follow Friday!

2011-08-26T18:26:00.006-04:00

Occasionally I do a few #ff posts on twitter noting all the Blue Jays players who tweet (or at least, have accounts) but there are getting to be so VERY many that I figured why not blow it up and give you more than just names. What follows is as comprehensive list as I can make, broken up by level and with comments where appropriate:

Toronto Blue Jays (11 players)

@JoeyBats19 - Jose Bautista validates my favorite nickname for him
@jparencibia9 - JP Arencibia, a must-follow
@Lunchboxhero45 - Travis Snider, yes, damnit, he's a Blue Jay as far as I'm concerned
@Encadwin - Edwin Encarnacion, new to the twitter game
@blawrie13 - Brett Lawrie, the King of Canada
@RealColbyRasmus - Colby Rasmus, doesn't tweet that much
@ESPY_TEAHEN - Mark Teahan
@Joeycatch8 - Newest major league Jay on Twitter, likey recruited by JP. often tweets in Spanish
@RickyRo24 - Always upbeat
@2Morrow23 - smart guy
@JesseLitsch - not always just baseball

Las Vegas 51's (1)

@ronuviedo_07 - Ron Uvideo

New Hampshire Fishercats (9)
(lots of interaction on long bus trips)

@Travisdarnaud -Travis d'Arnaud
@MacDizzleMan - Mike McDade
@Yan_AGomes - Yan Gomes
@Deckdeisel - John Tolisano
@deckmcguire - Deck McGuire
@Jenknutz - Chad Jenkins
@1DrewHutch - Drew Hutchison
@FrankGailey - Frank Gailey
@Kho4 - Kevin Howard

Dunedin Blue Jays (10)
(not as many high profile guys)

@ajjim6 - AJ Jiminez
@rgoins5 - Ryan Goins
@thebigshow - Sean Ochinko
@JaxChillinONE - Justin Jackson (maybe the most prolific minor league tweeter)
@talley4cali - Jon Talley
@ItsKennyWilson - Kenny Wilson
@sukbrikkid27 - Joe Bowen
@AsherWojo - Asher Wojciechewski
@caseylawrence - Casey Lawrence
@scottgracey - Scott Gracey
@chop510 - Chris Hopkins

Lansing Lugnuts (12)
(most of the bullpen is tweeting)

@JakeMarisnick - Jake Marisnick
@MarcusallenK - Marcus Knecht
@_crouse_ - Michael Crouse
@JonJones707 - Jon Jones
@JackMurphy219 - Jack Murphy
@NoahSyndergaard - Noah Syndergaard
@Sean_Nolin - Sean Nolin
@DjbMantis - Daniel Barnes
@Brandon_Berl - Brandon Berl
@GriFF720 - Shawn Griffith
@S_Strickland34 - Sam Strikland
@MattFields18 - Matt Fields
@jma32 - John Anderson

Vancouver Canadians (7)
(more relievers)

@ksween22 - Kellen Sweeney (virtually never tweets)
@SteveMcQuail - Steve McQuail
@BryanLongpre - Bryan Longpre
@drewpermison - Drew Permison
@PBrua_6 - Phillip Brua
@schaef18 - Chris Schaffer

Bluefield Blue Jays (4)
(five of the draftees are on this team as well)

@SirArthurC - Art Charles
@Tucker_Jensen - Tucker Jensen
@BearJew36 - Ian Kadish
@Boomer2788 - Drew Elliot

Gulf Coast Blue Jays (1)
(wildly under-represented - Jake Anderson is here too)

@Murph14 - Griffin Murphy

2011 draftees (12) (including those assigned to teams above)

@Jake_Anderson22 - Jake Anderson
@musgrove23Jays - Joe Musgrove
@kevcomer - Kevin Comer
@DanielNorris18 - Daniel Norris
@tomrobson15 - Tom Robson
@TonyTones16 - Anthony DeSclarfani
@Mark_Biggs - Mark Biggs
@Matt_Dean_10 - Matt Dean
@EArce813 - Eric Arce
@KPILLAR4 - Kevin Pillar
@Sik28 - Arik Sikula
@LesRWilliams - Lew Williams
@Farrell48 - Shane Farrell

An incredible 68 players! and there might be a few of whom I'm unaware.

EDIT: Updated to add April's two and two other new names. Somehow I missed Sean Nolin, and the recently joined Noah Syndergaard; and again to add draftee Tom Robson..

Also:
Official twitter accounts of the teams:

@BlueJays
@LasVegas51s
@fishercats
@DunedinBlueJays
@LansingLugnuts
@vancanadians
@BluefieldJays

And if that's not enough, few major media sources and or professional evaluators most of whom you likely already follow:

@ShiDavidi
@LottOnBaseball
@RGriffinStar
@Wilnerness590
@elliotbaseball
@keithlaw
@Kevin_Goldstein
@marchulet

Howzat?

I'll catch up on my thoughts on various roster moves next time. I'll conclude here only by observing how bad i feel for Travis Snider. Kid REALLY needs to catch a break next year.

Non-Uniformity!

2011-08-19T19:50:00.004-04:00

There's an undercurrent of buzz around the Jays that there will be some sort of new uniforms next year. I will preface my forthcoming views on that subject by saying that in my opinion the Jays have never worn better looking unis than those worn in the early '90s and if the new look was based largely on that one, I'd be a happy girl.

That said, if they really want to step up with some "next generation" patterns, then I suggest adopting the pattern worn by Yu Darvish in this photo.

I'm not good enough with photoshop type programs to do anything but screw it up, but imagine if you will a font very similar to the current Jays logo replacing "Fighters" - a Maple Leaf on the black sleeve and a Jays logo on the cap. Throw in a bit of red or not somewhere if you wish. I think it would be outstanding to be the first to wear that sort of pattern. The alternates might take some more creativity - I'm not sure what the road alternates look like for the Fighters or other Japanese teams. But possibly something that has blue over black, or charcoal gray over black would probably work. I'm confident a professional designer could expand nicely on the basic foundation.

In other news, as if you haven't heard, Mills is down to AAA - likely for good. Perez will get his next start, likely his next three turns, and joel Carreno is up from AA to pitch out of the 'pen - and if you don't understand that, read is as a straight up audition for next year's bullpen. Though it's not impossible he'd go back to AA to help the Fishercats through the playoffs.

Here's something to consider: Over the last 35 games, the Jays are 22-13 (.629) - over 162 games that's a pace for 102 wins, it's a better winning percentage than any team except the Phillies has on the season as a whole, That's one game back of the Yankees and a half game behind the Red Sox over the same period, and at the same pace they would finish with 88 wins. It didn't happen all against weak competition either. Nineteen of the 35 were against teams with better records then they have.

And, other than Encarnacion, it wasn't driven by unusual performances. EE had an OPS of 1.101, but Bautista's was .907, and JPA was at .704 which is consistent with his season as a whole. Lind's was under .700, Hill's under .500, scobar and Thames were right in line with their season stats, and Lawrie and Rasmus didn't play most of those games. That line-up averaged 5.43 runs per game, compared to the previous average of 4.53, they gave up 4.63 runs per game over that stretch, as compared to 4.53 in the previous games.

While one must acknowledge that the over-achiever will regress most likely, yu must also note that Lind will hit better to the same extent, that JPA likely progresses some and yes, even Hill (or whoever replaces him) won't play all year hitting under .500 - so I look at this team and I'm pretty frackin' optimistic about 2012.

On the Dotted Line

2011-08-16T04:39:00.002-04:00

(Are lines dotted anymore? I don't think I've ever actually signed on a dotted line . . . eh, nevermind)

By now you know - unless you are trying to access a site which isn't working - the results of the Blue Jays' efforts to sign their draft picks tonight. Tyler Beede got greedy (Make a rhythm every time!) and held out for $3.5 million (reportedly) and the Jays' ceiling was 2.5 mil. As compensation the Jays will get a first round pick in 2012, reportedly #22. The other most coveted draftee was LH Daniel Norris who did in fact sign for $2 million. Norris was called the best HS lefty in the draft by most and not a few said he was probably a better prospect than Beede (and only fell to the Jays because he was considered unsignable). If I may say, if the unsignable guy signs for $2 million, then I'm not at all uncomfortable with declining to pay Beede $3.5 million.

True, it's objectively true that they lost out on him for the price of one year of a mediocre reliever, and from that perspective it's hard to make sense of not signing the first rounder. But within the context of the draft and how it operates, their price for Beede was entirely fair. Another well-regarded high school pitcher was Kevin Comer - and he signed as well. Of the three highly drafted Vanderbilt recruits, two by the Jays and one by the Rays, two signed pro contracts. Beede had said quite a bit about the importance of winning a championship at Vanderbilt - that task got much harder tonight.

The other big signing of the day - the guy who was my personal hobby-horse in this draft, was 3B Matt Dean. Dean was rated the best 3B in the draft and, you guessed it, presumed unsignable so he slid all the way to the 13th round. But he's no 13th round talent. Most estimates had him as, on talent, a late first round or sandwich round pick. It's a MASSIVE steal, IMO, to land Dean. Also today the Jays signed highly regarded SS Christian Lopes, who is likewise a player who slid in the draft due to signability.

Including yesterday's (Sunday) signings, the Jays seriously ramped up the talent load from this draft. and while I've not yet read the reviews, I'm sure the jays will be considered one of the 3-5 biggest winners from this draft even without Beede. let's review:

Blue = signed, red = unsigned; bolded names are the ones I suggest being excited about.

1. Tyler Beede - RHP - 18 years old - unsigned
1s. Jake Anderson - OF - 18 - signed
Promising. some consider this a bit of a reach though.
1s. Joe Musgrove - RHP - 18 - signed
Something of an overdraft by most accounts.
1s. Dwight Smith, Jr. RF - 18 - signed Sunday
He's better than you've heard. some lazy analysis has amounted to "kinda like his dad" but some respected observers are quite impressed with him.
1s. Kevin Comer- RHP - 19 - signed
Excellent choice. He's not gotten as much attention in the shadow of Norris and Beede but he's a good one.
2. Daniel Norris - LHP - 18 - signed
On talent he'd have been a bargain with the first round pick. By the middle of the first round commentators were speculating his price was the only thing keeping him on the board.
2. Jeremy Gabryszwski - RHP - 18 - signed
Little reporting on this guy. He singed a few weeks ago an is on the GCL roster.
3. John Stilson - RHP - 21 - signed Sunday
Was a mid-first round talent on most listed before the season. A shoulder injury knocked him down the draft boards but the Jays felt him worth the gamble. He's got 4 good pitches, and may well start but there's also a possibility he could be developed as a faster-rising closer candidate. He might be one of those guys who, as a closer, could start as high as AA next year and advance as much as his results allow. One of the most interesting players to watch in terms of how the jays handle him.
4. Tom Robson - RHP - 17 (until 8/27) - signed
Position is about right for his Junior year performance. He regressed a bit as a senior, reportedly, but the Jays obviously believe in the kid.
5. Andrew Chin - LHP - 18 - unsigned.
6. Anthony DeSclafini - RHP - signed Sunday
Little discussed in shadow of bigger names - I can't tell you much about him tonight.
7. Christian Lopes - SS - 18 - signed
One of the ones you can get excited about. Another signability bargain.
8. Mark Biggs - RHP - 18 - signed Sunday
Yet another bargain on a guy most thought wouldn't sign.
9. Andrew Suarez - LHP - 18 - unsigned
10. Aaron Garza - RHP - 18 - unsigned
11. Andrew Burns - SS - 20 - signed some weeks ago and playing in Vancouver.
12. John Norwood - CF - 19 - unsigned
13. Matt Dean - 3B - 18 - signed
In my opinion, only Norris has more upside in this draft class for the Jays - be very excited.
14. Cole Wiper - RHP - 19 - unsigned (this is another guy who'd have been a coup)
15. Cody Glenn - LHP - 19 - unsigned.

As always, being as I'm obsessed with lists and rankings, I immediately assigned a lot of these guys tentative spots in my ongoing top prospect ranking list. Without going into tedious detail, here's my initial thoughts:

I have Norris In the second half of the top 10 (Beede would have been in the 10-12 range)
I have Dean in the mid-teens
I have Comer on the fringes of the top 20 (more a reflection of the quality of the system than of his abilities)
I have Stilson in the top 25 (barring more injury trouble)
I have Dwight Smith just in the top 30 and Lopes right behind him. Again, you normally think the guy at #30 is only a so-so prospect but unless you want to dis David Cooper, every one of those 30 guys is a legitimate "keep your eye on him" prospect. Anderson and Biggs fall just outside the Top 30.

All this is subject to announcements about international free agent signings, of course, as well as more extensive reporting about the players we signed from this draft.

Oh, and to end on a major league note - I continue to be shocked and amazed that Trever Miller is still on the Jays' roster, let alone pitching in tight games. I felt that way even before he gave up the lead to the mariners tonight, I feel so even more strongly now. But I've got plenty to be happy about tonight so I'll not rant on that subject further.

September call-ups?

2011-08-14T14:53:00.003-04:00

Alex Anthopoulos gave me some additional context this morning for the subject of September recalls, according to Richard Griffin on Twitter, when he said that September call ups would be from the Vegas roster and not New Hampshire. it's safe to assume that this reflects an interest in keeping the NH roster intact for a playoff run and it's not crazy to think the team things it will be good for the prospects on that team to win a championship . . .

Which, by the way, is also likely the reason that the mighty Lansing outfield is still in Lansing. Both the A-level teams are playoff contenders but Lansing Features a much stronger "atmosphere" due to bigger crowds and is probably better for that undefinable "winning experience" mentality.
/digression

. . . so this rules out my previous hunch that Travis d'Arnaud might get a taste of the big leagues this year - but fuels my hunch about the AFL. More on that later. Alex also said the recalls from Vegas would arrive two days after the Vegas season ended which would is September 5.

So . . . a guess . . .

Snider, Loewen and Cooper seem obvious. There will be a catcher - probably Bubbe and I'm leaning towards predicting Hech gets to come too, though Alex says that's not certain. McCoy will come of course. On the pitching side, it's a given Drabek comes back and probably PJ Walters since he's on the 40. Disabled pitchers Villaneuva and Tallet will be added. The remaining question is whether or not McGowan counts when he says "none from the Fishercats" - my guess is he does not and he'll be recalled in September.

If I understand the (poorly reported) Eastern league playoff schedule they will be done no later than 9/17 and the AFL starts 10/4. Speaking of McGowan, he could theoretically help carry them through the playoffs (standing in for Alvarez, in essence) and still get three major league starts. It seems to be that the EL playoff schedule looks like this (with projected rotation):

9/7 - McGowan
9/8 - Jenkins
9/9 - Molina
9/10 -(if necessary) McGuire
9/11 - (if necessary) Carreno

9/13 - McGowan
9/14 - Jenkins
9/15 - Molina
9/16 - (if necessary) McGuire
9/17 - (if necessary) Carreno

If McGowan flew out the next morning he could start on the 18th, 23rd and 28th in Tornto - or if they had him return after he pitched on the 13th and not stay for the celebration they'd have even more options. Honestly, I could see them doing either (recalling him on September 1 or letting him ride the playoff run).

Oh, and by the way, heck of a game on Saturday. I'd assumed Friday was the winnable game so I was not expecting much (even had it been the regular lineup) so it was definitely impressive. And as i write that Lawrie just drove in Rasmus in the bottom of the ninth to tie today's game! Go Jays!

Have Fun With it

2011-08-11T18:47:00.003-04:00

My apologies to whoever's photo this is that I just hijack to make a funneh. Hopefully no one gets offended. But you got to laugh at all this stupidity.

I really don't have a reason to make a post except to get that picture posted someplace but just to give you a little baseball related tidbit - Adeiny Hechavarria has been promoted to AAA. You shouldn't read too much into this but one of two things is potentially true (with other variants in between):

1. This means nothing to the overall plan and he will go back to the minors, potentially even AA, next spring with a progress plan that would bring him to the majors for good in late 2013 (he'll be out of options if he goes back to the minors in '12 and '13) and a full time major leaguer (not necessarily starter) beginning in 2014. OR

2. the jays are looking at Hill's production and saying "if we're going to carry an empty bad anyway, why not get an insane glove at SS in the bargain" and thinking about how it would work to move Esco over to 2B next spring and instal Hechavarria at SS. In my mind the risk with this option is that potential that you permanently stunt his offensive growth (which, traditionally, you'd expect to happen more in the minors than in the majors). but I can'trule the possibility out on that basis.

Am I the only one who's getting antsy for the draft signing news to start rolling in?!

#slowdayblues

The Man in White Comes Through!

2011-08-11T02:57:00.003-04:00

No one seems to have a photograph of the fabled Man in White - but due to my four unidentified sources, I've found one!

Seriously though, this makes every bit as much sense as the nonsensical ESPN story which is being so thoroughly dismembered across the internet that all I could do would be to summarize the hard work of others. I will only go so far as to say that based on his voice at the beginning of his presser today, if Alex were a violent man something or someone would be broken and bleeding from his rage.
Justifiably so.

Ultimately though, the god-like powers might belong to Alex himself, and not the man in the photograph. The way this team is coming together is almost majestic to behold. there have been isolated moments over the past 18 years when I've been this giddy about the team - possibly the most recent pre-Alex moment was the acquisition of Scott Rolen (I'd always been a huge fan of his) - but I can't remember an extended period when the excitement has just grown and grown as it has since he took over and over the last couple of weeks we're cresting at hights not seen since the fall of '93.

Tonight was already going to be exciting as we watched yet another potential core piece make their debut in a Blue Jay uniform for the first time - the third such occasion in two weeks - but then Brett "Full Tilt" Lawrie stole the show and blew our collective minds. Props to Alvarez who had a perfectly fine debut, especially for a raw 21 year old. But the sheer passion and joy on Lawrie's face as he celebrated his game winning grand slam with his team-mates was electrifying in a way I'm having difficulty finding appropriate words for.

I'm still buzzing over it five hours later!
These, my friends, are heady times!

Just a few tidbits you might have missed:

*The Blue Jays have signed Canadian RHP Tom Robson, their 4th round pick and their ninth selection overall, to an over-slot contract; they've also signed 17th rounder, also a RHP, Brady Dragmire - about whom I know almost nothing.

*Travis Snider in three games back in Vegas is 7/12 and more importantly drew three walks tonight and has struck out only once.

*I'm seeing more and more buzz about Travis d'Arnaud from thought-leaders in the baseball commentary universe. I've a hunch you'll see him be a consensus Top 20 prospect in the majors this winter.

*Dustin McGowan got through 4 IP in very impressive fashion - mst nights he'd be the main focus of our discussions. Look for him to join the Jays as early as September 1.

*25 year old "non-prospect" Brad McElroy is hitting for an .829 OPS Since the break. He and teammate Brian Van Kirk are looking like guys who will knock around the organization for a few more years - but don't get excited, they are both quite old for the FSL.

*Some source, which I can't find again at the moment, reports that the latest issue of Baseball America ranks Lansing manager Mike Redmond as the best prospective major league manager in the circuit, and also honored Jake Marisnick as the best batting prospect in the league as well as Steve Turnbull as the best relief prospect (the latter of which surprises me some).

*Another Canadian in the system, 2010 16th round pick Dalton Pompey (gotta love the name) was promoted to Bluefield - he's a speedy CF with a pretty good bating eye for an 18 year old. Some speculation the Jays might be clearing a starting spot in the GCL for 2011 draftee Jake Anderson.

*Finally, I've heard random noise (things like "took a physical" or speculation from professionals) about the Jays having a pretty good likelihood of signing the following:

Tyler Beede
Kevin Comer
Daniel Norris
John Stilson
Matt Dean

That would be a very impressive haul if that was all the signings still unannounced. There have been a couple more vague implications about a couple of other guys - Christian Lopes in the company of Beede at the area-code games for instance - but nothing you could take to the bank.

The highest pick about whom I have seen absolutely not one word in print about is Dwight Smith Jr. It's good to sign everyone but I wouldn't be crushed if he were the one who got away.

Edit: I'm planning a more in depth look at this question some time late next week after the signing hubbub passes but there was a comment with a question about potential September call-ups and I want to just throw out a rough basic list of possibilities. in the JP era it was usually a pretty short list, it's unclear what AA's philosophy is. but as I see it, here are the possibilities:

Pitchers:
Carlos Villanueva - if he's not activated before then
Dustin McGowan
Brian Tallet - if he's recovered
Kyle Drabek
Maybes: Ledzma, Walters, Ray, and Danny Farquhar

Hitters:
Travis d'Arnaud
Travis Snider
Adam Loewen
David Cooper
Mike McCoy
Jayson Nix and/or Chris Woodward
Adeiny Hechavarria (would not actually get playing time, just for the experience, since he's on the 40 man anyway)

Major caveat - any of the legit prospects listed here may very well be assigned to the AFL and generally players going to the AFL are not September call-ups. Henderson Alvarez, d'Arnaud, Cooper, Adeiny and Loewen would all be potential candidates. If d'Arnaud went west you might see Ryan Buddie or, less likely, Brian Jeroloman come up since the team traditionally adds a third catcher in September.

4/5 Farm Report

2011-08-08T20:05:00.004-04:00

On the occasion of the news that Henderson Alvarez will get the call to start for the Blue Jays on Friday night when the Angels come to town, and taking advantage of an off day, I present to you the last (official) in-season Farm Report two days early. I anticipate more and more news this week about draft pick signings (several have been strongly implied on Twitter lately including something from Matt Dean today that was a pretty broad hint) so I want to go ahead and get this out of the way and clear the decks. Per the usual format, pitchers and hitters listed separately. There's enough being said about Brett Lawrie already that I will omit him here even though his time in Toronto has been very short.

Pitchers

1. Drew Hutchison - As I was writing this tonight Hutchinson was firmly cementing the #1 spot on this list by thoroughly dominating the Tampa Yankees, allowing a single baserunner in six shutout innings. Hutchison has given up a mere 15 runs in nine Hi-A ball appearances and seven of those came on one game (pretty much the only non-excellent start he's had since April). The right-handed Hutchison is still 2 weeks short of this 21st birthday. He might be, ya know, kinda good at this whole pitching thing.

2. Henderson Alvarez - Just four months older than Hutchison, the two men have very similar results this but Alvarez is thought to have somewhat better stuff - and he's pitching in AA. Since July 1, Alvarez has accumulated 39.2 IP, during which he's struck out 37 and walked . . . five.

3. Nestor Molina - Molina, whom I've raved about all year, also has very similar statistical results to the men above him - very low walk numbers, solid-to-excellent strikeout rates, excellent ERA and WHIP. the only major difference is age - Molina is over 19 months older. This, however, is somewhat mitigated by the reality that this is Molina's first year as a starter. He only has ~70 IP more as a pro than Hutchison does. It would be difficult to say which will ultimately be more successful.

4. Justin Nicolino - No we're not done yet with the high-K low-walk studs. Fiftenn months younger than Hutchsion, 2010 draftee Nicolino is a 6'3" lefty but his stat line in Vancouver is even better than that of the three pitchers above him on the list. The 19 year old has a 1.07 ERA in the Pioneer League and is clearly head and shoulders above the competition. I've been puzzled for a couple of weeks now why he hasn't been promoted to Lansing.

5. Noah Syndergaard - Another 2010 draftee off to a seriously impressive start, the 6'5" RHP is not yet 19. Still he ran off a string of five outstanding appearances in Bluefield before being promoted to Vancouver recently where his first start was more of the same. Stop me if you've heard this, but here's another guy with more strikeouts than innings pitched and a better than 3:1 K/BB ratio.

6. Mitchell Taylor - yet another 2010 draft choice, the 7th rounder Taylor trailed not very far off Synergaard's pace at Bluefield. The 6' LH starter has pitched in nine games (started five, but it's the nature of short-season ball to do "split-starts" with two starting pitchers) and has, you guessed it, more than a K per IP and a 3.5:1 ratio.

7. Brad Mills - the definition of the finesse lefty (think Jamie Moyer), Mills is now in Toronto but his work this year deserves mention as he's been called the most effective starter in the PCL. At first glance his stats are not on par with the younger men above him on the list, and his stuff is certainly far less remarkable, but doing what he's done in that league deserves notice just the same.

And one other starter for you to keep an eye on is Sean Nolin, another 2010 draftee who's doing very good work in Lansing.

Honorable mention for a few relievers doing excellent work: Danny Barnes is owning the competition in Lansing; Wes Ethridge and Bobby Korecky, both considered too old to be at the level they are pitching to be prospects, are nevertheless pitching very well; So is journeyman Sean Henn in Las Vegas.

Hitters

1. Travis d'Arnaud - He just keeps getting better. the weaknesses of BA as a stat aside, he has hit .386 since July 1 (and that after hitting .410 in May). the 22 year old catcher is becoming legitimately one of the best prospects in baseball.

2. Marcus Knecht - The thing to watch with the 2010 3rd round Canadian outfielder, beside the prolific hitting ability, is the steadily impressive BB:K rate. There's little to even express caution about in Knecht's offensive game.

3. Jake Marisnick - Knecht's team-mate who shares the outfield with him, Marisnick - a 6'4" CF - recovered from an average May in fine form. Since July 1 his OPS is over .950 and, important for a player of his age and experience, his walks almost equal his strikeouts over that span.

4. David Cooper - by now you are familiar with the scouting reports that suggest Cooper is a marginal guy as a prospect at best, and I'm not here to dispute them - still, the guy just keeps hitting. Over the last 10 games his BA is .405, and he hasn't had a full month this season in which his OPS wasn't over 1.000 fueled by prolific walks and a ton of doubles.

5. Anthony Gose - the NH center fielder is riding his hottest stretch of the year, with an OPS of .982 in his last 10 games. He's still working on some aspects of his game, but it's worth remembering that he's less than 8 months older than Marisnick and he's two levels higher.

6. Adam Loewen - Since May 1 the one-time-pitcher turned RF has been raking. His BB:K ratio has been a bit troublesome but at this writing, he's last 10 games has seen him draw 9 walks against 10 strikeouts. If his walk rate comes up for good he'll have little left to prove in AAA.

7. Eric Acre - shout out here to the 25th round pick in this year's draft. The 5'9" catcher-turned outfielder is ripping up the competition for the GCL Jays. He had some off-field issues that reportedly dropped his stock in the draft (the Jays drafted him in the 27th round in 2010 as well but he didn't sign) and he was a bit of a bargain but still, this is surprising. His OPS is 1.067 and his OBP is .432 despite a BA of only .270 - the former stat is second in the league and the latter is 4th - oh, and he leads the GCL with 11 homers (in 115 AB).

HM: Adeiny Hechevarria - an offensive non-entity (despite having been called perhaps the best defensive SS in professional baseball) for most of the season but over the last 10 games (7/27 - 8/7) he's hitting .381 with a .970 OPS. This is probably just a hot streak but if it's a sign he's figured something out (new mechanics for instance) then look out.

Big week ahead, and an exciting finish to the season afoot on all levels.

All Hail Redux

2011-08-06T18:29:00.004-04:00

You know, lost in the uber-hype around Brett Lawrie is how often we are doing this sort of thing lately? Just a little over a week ago we were all losing our composure over Colby Rasmus (and for good reason) Late last season we got giddy over Kyle Drabek and powered-up by JP Arencibia. Before the end of this season we might get a chance to swoon over Henderson Alvarez. these are heady times!

I was tempted to squeeze out the time to gush over his promotion Thursday, and again Friday - but a rush-job love-fest would be something easy to find all over, why do I need to do that too? One of the things I've found akward about blogging is the unwritten rule that if something big happens with your team, good or bad, you rush to the keyboard and pound out a response. for various reasons - some selfish - I've never done that much. I prefer to marinate a bit in the news and the reactions around me and left my thoughts be informed by the wisdom - and nonsense - of others.

But having had 48 hours to meditate on the arrival of Lawrie I don't end up with much more than what I had Thursday. He's a major milestone on a virtual autobahn of team-building, as was Rasmus. It's true that there will be a constant undercurrent of hand-wringing about his defense, but he's not going to be anything close to the issue Encarnacion was in that regard. If he turns out to be "below average" no one will care if he hits like everyone thinks he will. One need only to read the quotes from John Farrell, who's thin veneer of grizzled baseball cliches was not nearly sufficient to cover up his school-girl gushing over Lawrie, in order to pick up on the idea that this is not just another prospect.

On the other hand, many fans' comments seem to forget the process, discussing hitting him 2nd or even fifth or even THIRD. Let's not get nuts people. I quibble a bit with Farrell's lineup last night (I can't understand Hill still batting in front of Arencibia) but Lawrie at #9 is actually excellent, IMO. if he gets off to a fast start he basically acts as a trigger to restart the lineup one batter early. He gets the benefit of more veteran players feeling out pitchers he's unfamiliar with, and then from his first at-bat onward, he's at the head of a line that goes Lawrie > Escobar > Thames > Bautista > Lind > Encarnacion > Rasmus...how can you NOT love that? It's far better than hitting him in front of Hill.

If you will pardon me a tangent into rosterbation here, looking forward to 2012 the team has no need to add a starter at any position from outside the organization except at 2B. and if they fail to scrounge up an above average guy there (the market, either FA or trade, is remarkably thin) then honestly, you can win a LOT of games with one hole in your lineup - it's not going to kill us as long as he's hidden away at the bottom of the order. it does remain to be sorted out how you deal with Snider and Thames if you bring back EE - can you bring the older guy back on the understanding that he's strictly a reserve? I mean you CAN - you have an option - but can you in good conscience? if so, problem solved. Let Thames DH and serve as your primary OF reserve, and let EE back DH and 1B and be your emergency 3B - it's a valuable role if he'll take it. Of course, Davis will rust but that can't be helped.

Speaking of Snider - I understand the raw emotions concerning sending him down and on an emotional level i share them - but you have to think Adam Lind has had a nice talk with him and told him "I got the T-shirt." What Alex Anthopoulos is saying is dead on - this happens with young players all the time and the idea that he's out of favor or needs a change of scenery or some such is just silly. He DOES neet to get his plate control back (only one walk on his most recent recall) and I'm concerned that the modified swing might not be as conducive to power as the one he originally came up with, and in that regard more work - regular work - is a good thing.
But he's 23, and he has almost 900 at bats in the majors. One need look no further than Alex Gordon to see why patience is advised. Is it possible he ends up a perpetual underachiever? Sure. But we are a long long way away from concluding that.

Among the other moves made Thursday which are naturally swept aside in the fooforall is the recall of Luis Perez for the bullpen and the disabling of Carlos Villanueva with what is essentially a phantom injury. There's every reason to assume that Villanueva simply ran out of gas after the break. He had a very good nine game run that was invaluable but ultimately that's likely his role - be a very good reliever who can step into that emergency starter role if need be. A contender needs a guy like that.
There will be a need for a fifth starter soon and while the easy answer would be to give those starts to Jesse Litsch, the team is saying publicly they want to find out how he works as a reliever and the early returns are favorable enough (2 walks and a hit in 5 IP against 9K) that this may well continue. If it does, then things might get very interesting if Farrell was serious about the potential the team could seek to take a look at Henderson Alvarez. Will Brad Mills already in the rotation and Kyle Drabek still refining his game, there doesn't seem to be another obvious option once Litsch is ruled out. Dustin McGowan is doing fantastic but he hasn't pitched above A-ball or more than 3 IP this season. I look forward to seeing him in September but anything earlier than August 27 is too aggressive to be realistic.

One other point on pitching - the weakened bullpen. both this year and next year need attention but i don't think it's a stretch to say the team is somewhat resigned to less than great work in some quarters this year.

The current pen is Rauch/Francisco/Camp/Janssen/Litsch/Perez/Ledzma and Miller. Miller really has no business here, Ledzma is very slightly better but no good team should want him. Rauch is having his worst year in a while (other than his mediocre tour in Arizona) and Camp seems to be in decline. that leaves four guys you can have some confidence in - five if you count Villanueva when he comes off the DL. While PJ Walters is no prize, I'm a bit puzzled he's not up here instead of Miller or Ledzma. Surely he'll be back on September 1. Sean Henn and possibly Danny Farquar are probably better than those two bums as well, though Henn is very much a scrub. Starters Chad Beck and Joel Carreno are other options though there's been no mention of calling them.

Looking ahead to next year, the core of Janssen, Listch, Villanueva and Perez is still pretty sound (though without a long track record in some cases. One could make a reasonable argument for any of those three righties getting a shot at closing but the team doesn't seem so inclined. if that doesn't change we can anticipate a repeat of last winter with a coule of potential closers imported (among the candidates, Francisco isn't a bad option). Also, a reliable more veteran LHP would be on the agenda. but the art of bullpen construction is highly unpredictable. if it was me, I'd try to persuade the Giants to trade Sergio Romo or seen someone similar to him (the Braves have some options) even if you have to pay "too much for a reliever" to do so.

Still, there's no real need to sweat the bullpen - all too often when we think it's fine it stinks, and when we think it stinks it turns out fine. Relievers are weird like that.

Lots of rain in Baltimore as I type - might be looking at a double header tomorrow if things don't change.

Edit to add: I've been meaning to include a link to a wonderfully lustful article by Callum at Mop-Up Duty about the potential of the Jays breaking the bank for Yu Darvish this winter. Consider me on board.

Progress

2011-07-31T18:04:00.002-04:00

The Toronto Blue Jays, in a somewhat rare confluence, arrived at the end of July and the 2/3 point in the season on the same day today. Brandon Morrow marked the occasion - also the occasion of Roberto Alomar Day which in turn provoked an even rarer event in Toronto, a mid-season sellout - with one of his best games of the year, striking out 11 Rangers over 7 innings and getting his 8th win of the year.

It is always tricky to project past results into future performance, since all hitters have peaks and valleys throughout the season, and also because the number of games you miss in one part of the season doesn't mean you will miss a like number in the next part. Still, I like to play with numbers (on a very elementary level admittedly) so I can't help but make some random observations:

The team as a whole is on a pace for 83 wins (well, 82.5 but that's not going to happen) - i expect given the current roster construction (and the anticipated arrival) that they will do better than that.
Morrow has 8 wins in 19 starts and Romero has 8 in 21 - both figures pro-rate out to 12 on the season but Morrow might end u with the team lead unless Ricky gets more run support.
Not really an "on-pace" comment - But Frank Francisco has been good over the last two months (not the story you usually hear I know). He given up 7 ER in 18 IP since the last appearance in may, but 5 of those runs came in only 2 appearances (totaling only 1 out). without those two appearances his ERA over the last two months is 1.02 - which kinda works for me.
Adam Lind has only played in 82 games - just over half a season's worth. if he preformed at his current rates over 162 games he'd have 38 homers and almost 120 RBI.
JP Arencibia is on pace to shatter the jays team record for HR by a catcher and has a shot at Eric Hinske's rookie record of 24. Over his last 8 games he's hitting .346 and has 5 homers.
Jose Bautista's pace is now 47 homers and 106 RBI.
Eric Thames is in the midst of his first prolonged slump (0 for his last 13) but in his first 44 games as a Blue Jays, his 162 game pace is for 44 doubles and 18 homers.

All of which means very little, really, but I'm expecting the next third to be the most enjoyable 54 games of baseball the Jays have played in a long long time.

Oh, and about the passing of the trade deadline - almost every player you'd want to see the Jays turn over this summer is easily going to pass through waivers. Or be dealt to a claiming team. There could easily be more deals.

Rosterbation!

2011-07-29T20:28:00.002-04:00

A few variations on the theme here.

Logically, the Jays have a player to be excited about at every position on the field for the next 3 years (more at some spots) except 2B. some also mention DH but with four outfielders you want in the line-up, I don't. While it might be true that Thames is headed for a regression at some point - what he regresses to may still be a better choice than some of the other options. More on that when I get to the bit about free agents.

As for the pitching, we now look like the bullpen is going to need some augmentation, particularly in the off-season - but finding relievers is usually not hard. Finding a proper player for the cliche of "closer" is somewhat more difficult.

Looking at the rotation, I see the following depth chart for Opening Day 2012:
Romero
Morrow
McGowan
Cecil
Drabek
Litsch
Villianueva
Mills

It's widely said that the Blue ays need to add an Ace level SP. I'm not at all convinced that is true. Sure, I'd be happy to add Ubaldo Jimenez (or Felix Hernandez or a healthy Josh Johnson) but do I think we are in NEED of such a move? Nope. I really don't. By the time we sort out whether McGowan can come back, or Drabek can solve his setback, we'll be wondering what to do with Henderson Alvarez and Deck McGuire and by the time they get a fair shot we'll be looking at Hutchison and Molina. Unless you are planning on dealing all your young pitchers, they need a path to the majors and so it's not a bad thing to have the opportunity to use the 4/5 spots to work those guys in. if we end up with the offense that seems to be developing, we can afford to not have a Philly-style rotation.

With the trade deadline less than 44 hours away, all seems quiet with the jays (and you know what that means). Here are the players on the major league squad that might yet be dealt this weekend:

Mark Teahen
Jon Rauch
Frank Francisco
Shawn Camp
Trever Miller
Raji Davis
Jesse Litsch
Brad Mills
Carlos Villianeuva

Obviously, alone, none of these is going to bring a head-turning return. but you never know what Alex will turn up.

For my part, in terms of targets, the name I keep seeing that grabs my eye is Koji Uehara. You may recall that last winter i expressed my lust for him on more than one occasion. Rosenthal tweets it's 50/50 he gets dealt, but he's apparently out there and I'd MUCH rather have him than, for instance, Heath Bell as our closer next year. how hard could it be to, for instance, send David Cooper and Brad Mills to the O's for him?

Finally, a day doesn't pass that someone doesn't insist that the Jays need to sign a big money free agent to prove they are "serious" about winning. Never-mind that the landscape is littered with free agents signed to big deal that are not paying off right now (remember when Chone Figgins was the very thing - how'd you like to have him on your team right now? Adam Dunn? The list is quite long).

Mostly people mention Prince Fielder. now I'm not going to raise hell if the Jays sign Fielder, but here's the thing - they won't. There's no way that fits the model of what they are doing here and I, for one, am glad. If we do sign a free agent DH next year, it would have to be the 2011 equivalent of Paul Molitor - and the only guy I see in that mode is Lance Berkman who is probably going to resist the idea of committing to DH.

Just my opinion of course, but don't look for me on the big money bandwagon.

Three to be named

2011-07-29T04:01:00.004-04:00

Edit: A bit of news is breaking I wantto throw in before I begin: Callum at Mop-Up Duty has the story that the Jays are on the verge of signing Roberto Osuna out of the Mexican League. if true, this would give them the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 21st, and 33rd players on the Baseball America list of the top 40 projected signing bonuses for this year's international signing period - and not all those players have signed yet. Osuna stands to be a serious catch if this pans out.

Now, on to business . . .

There's some discussion over at Viva El Birdos about who the three players to be named might be if the Cards do indeed take the players instead of the cash. the Cardinals have until the end of the year to select them and ken Rosenthal wrote: "The three players to be named? Don’t get too excited. They are not top prospects, according to a source."
But since there is, for some reason, a 2 day waiting period before a new poster can post there (thus I cannot offer an answer to the question directly) I will do so here and perhaps those who might be curious will find some direction. Of course it's true I'm not privy to the list or any inside info - but just as clearly I tend to obsess over the Jays farm system so I can surely give some insight to Cardinal fans who've never given it a thought before now.

This is just one girl's opinion as far as the rankings go, but they are not wildly different from the list you see on big name sites - just a lot longer. Also, constantly updated so this reflects the work these guys did in the first half.

I will include here no draftees from 2011 since they cannot be traded until they have been in the organization for a year and thus cannot be selected by the end of this year. Among those listed, I will highlight those I consider "top prospects" which are too good to be on the list in blue. I will highlight 2010 draftees who cannot be selected until after August 15 and free agent signings which cannot be selected until a later date this year in red. Those not already in blue of course. The rest might well be on the list, though I've not heard a specific report of how long the list is. It can't be as long as my list!

1. Brett Lawrie
2. Henderson Alvarez
3. Travis d'Arnaud
4. Anthony Gose
5. Jake Marisnick
6. Deck McGuire
7. Aaron Sanchez
8. Drew Hutchinson
9. Carlos Perez
10. Adeiny Hechevarria
11. Nestor Molina
12. Antonio Jimenez
13. Noah Syndergaard
14. Marcus Knecht
15. Justin Nicolino
16. Adonis Cardona - RHP
17. Chad Jenkins - RHP <-most advanced pitcher
18. Asher Wojciechowski - RHP <-higher upside than stats sugest
19. Michael Crouse - RF
20. Mike McDade - 1B <-either he or Cooper as potential depth of Pujols gets away
21. Moises Sierra - RF <-best OF arm in all the minors
22. David Cooper - 1B <-tearing it up, PCL caveat
23. DJ Thon - SS
24. Joel Carreno - RHP <-control still needs work
25. Brad Mills - LHP <-very likely choice
26. Adam Loewen - RF/1B <- fewer minor league AB's than Lawrie
27. Kellen Sweeney - 3B <- injured
28. Chris Hawkins - OF
29. Danny Farquhar - RHRP
30. Gus Pierre - SS <- probably have to change positions
31. Santiago Nessy - C
32. Griffin Murphy - LHP
33. Justin Jackson - IF/OF <- versitle, great D, low ceiling bat
34. KC Hobson - 1B <-good tools for 1B
35. Sean Nolin - LHP
36. Myles Jaye - RHP
37. Mitchell Taylor - LHP
38. Alan Farina - RHRP <-injured
39. Casey Lawrence - RHP
40. Brad Glenn - LF
41. Deivy Estrada - RHP
42. Daniel Webb - RHP <- very good stuff, struggling to use it
43. Darin Mastroianni - CF <- tweener
44. Marcus Brisker - CF
45. Sean Ochinko - C/3B/1B <-very versatile, 1st down year
46. John Anderson - LHP <- can't stay healthy
47. Brian Jeroloman - C <- outstanding defense, can't hit.
48. Chad Beck - RHP <- added some pitches, improved stock
49. Yan Gomes - C <- trapped behind better prospects, needs playing time.
50. Sam Dyson - RHP <-recovering from TJ surgery.

(counting Thames, and Luis Perez as major-leaguers even though not past rookie limits yet)

Anyone you see not on that list, unless he was added to the organization in 2011, is a guy you can have.

What I expect is that the list has a "Chinese menu" sort of pattern. That is, that there are three tiers of players and the Cardinals get to select one guy from each tier. So that, using my list as an example, they couldn't select Jenkins, Woj and Crouse. It would be more like the top 5 available guys are on one tier, the next ten on another tier and the rest on a third.

So a smart set might be Crouse, Mills, and Nessy - for example. Feel free, of course, to covet whom you wish. but I wouldn't get my hopes up about any of those in blue.

Double Rainbows all the Way!

2011-07-27T20:38:00.003-04:00

There's so much to say about today's deal, one can hardly write coherently about it without breaking it into chapters. You have already heard most all the major details, the only thing you can find here is opinion you haven't seen elsewhere or maybe one you overlooked that I'm repeating. Rather than write a novel (as is my wont) I'm going to simply bullet this thing addressing each player involved in turn. Departing players in red, arriving players in blue.

Chapter One: The White Sox Deal

Edwin Jackson: I shouldn't spend too much time on Jackson because obviously he's not going to suit up for the Jays. He's an enigmatic guy in that what he's done the last few years, combined with his reputation as a prospect should make him stick longer with teams than he does. It is to our benefit that he has such appeal to the Cardinals though, because Alex has said a few times today that the previous impediment to getting Rasmus was that he refused to deal any of his (good) starters.

Mark Teahen: Clearly, the only reason we got Teahan is to give the White Sox salary relief. Still, he's a versitle guy who can do what Patterson was doing plus play in the infield as necessary. Ignore the twice (at least) too much salary, the Jays can afford it and it won't get in the way of any other move. Roster wise, think of the guy as a somewhat younger Eric Hinske. He's having a down year but most years he's a mildly below average guy who can be useful off the bench.

Zach Stewart: Stewart was among the Jays top 10 prospects on every prominent list last off-season - Kieth Law had him as high as #3, as did I. Some were cooler on him after he was "just okay" in repeating AA this year rather than be run through the Vegas wringer. I suspect that was an over-reaction and it seems unlikely a 24 year old has gone backwards for no obvious reason. Still, scouts had always waiver on whether he was a #3 starter or a potential closer - he was never called a potential Ace. the White Sox will, at a minimum, give him some time in AAA and he might very well break camp in the bigs next spring.

Jason Frasor: Long under-appreciated but has of late matured into the role of the guy whom most everyone quietly recognizes as a mainstay. If we were in a race he'd be a bigger loss than his stats (which are quite good) would indicate, in my opinion. I think he's the rock of the bullpen. but you can't let sentiment get in the way of something major. I'm going to be the first to say this - if the White Sox don't pick up his option for 2012 (and if he doesn't slip into a Type A status) don't be stunned if Alex brings him back as a free agent. Anthopoulos was effusive in his praise for Frasor today and I think it was sincere.

Chapter Two: The St. Louis Deal

Colby Rasmus: Has been one of the guys Alex has been "watching since last year" (kinda interesting how he seems to end up with those guys who stay constantly on his radar like that) and his dogged determination paid off. you can read some of the background on that pursuit in John Lott's nice piece on the trade. there's no point in re-cycling the massive praise Rasmus' talent has gotten over the last few years, or the history of conflict with former manager Tony LaRussa. in short, yes, there's always risk and more so when you are getting someone said to have "an attitude" - but before you worry too much, consider: Brett Lawrie, Yunel Escobar, Kyle Drabek, and yes, even Jose Bautista were said to have make-up issues beofre they came to Toronto. so far, other than Drabek's temper on the mound, we haven't seen any downside to that.

Brian Tallet: On the DL with a strained intercostal muscle (from a sneeze, no less!) and hasn't pitched since June 23, he wasn't pitching well in very limited opportunities before going on the list. But during treatment for the injury he was found to have a serious but treatable kidney disease which requires a treatment protocol which inhibits his rehabbing the injury. It's unclear when he'll be able to resume pitching. You already know the best case for what we'd get if/when he recovers.

Trever Miller: how many of you remember that Miller has been here before? In 2003 he appeared in 79 games for the Jays doing the sort of average work that has been the hallmark of his career. The non-discript lefty is 38 now and his always ordinary control is slipping away from him. Likely taking him on was a combination of a Jays pen being emptied out and taking on a bit of excess salary from the Cards. If he does anything other than eat some filler innings it would be too much.

P.J. Walters: at best, a long reliever in the majors. Think Bobby Ray or Scott Richmond. He's filler.

Octavio Dotel: Once John Farrell gave up the idea that Dotel would ever get a lefty out, he's been aces. Since May 14 his ERA has been 1.86. while the Cards paid way too much, if they use their bullpen acquisitions properly, they gained considerable value there.

Marc Rzepczyinski: is this the last time I'll have to remember how to spell that? all of us, including Anthopoulos, have expressed how much we hate to see him go - but in a telling complement to the young left, Alex said that if he held out on Zep the deal wouldn't have gotten done, and that would have been a big mistake. if Zep never does anything more than mature into a rock in the role he has now, he's got a lot of value - if the Cards convert him back to the rotation and he excels there, it will certainly soften the blow for Cardinals fans. don't rule that possibility out.

Corey Patterson: is it completely irrational that I'm almost as happy to see Patterson go as to see Rasmus arrive? Yes, it is, but I'm gonna go with it anyway. Thank God and Grayhound he's gone (yes I know he'll fly out but it's kinda cool to imagine him taking a bus).

Tangent to the deal, the Jays owe the Cards 3 players to be named or cash. it's possible that how things go with Pujols in the off-season might drive who the Cards select from the list they have in hand. Perhaps Cooper or McDade (or both) are on the list but the Cards would only want to pick them if albert stays. Time will tell. I think we can safely assume the player is no a Top 10 prospect type of guy since you presumably wouldn't want to let such a valuable chip play in someone else's organization for two more months. I could be wrong about that though. My guess is whoever it is (if it's not just cash) - the Jays can afford it.

Also somewhat related, the Jays recalled Brad Mills who'll probably won't be in Toronto long but covers them a bit while they are short handed. Either he or Walters will be optioned out to Vegas as soon as tomorrow probably.

In the final calculation, when you strip away the fungible guys, and the finances (which were key - Gerry pointed out on Batter's Box that if the Jays don't have case in reserve they can't do this deal) we traded a top 10 prospect (Stewart) and a very good LH reliever (Zep) for a potential All Star center fielder. That my friends is a good days work.

In conclusion I can only say that for a committed roterbator such as myself, these are heady times.

What If?

2011-07-24T03:28:00.003-04:00

On the occasion of my all time favorite Blue Jay (and all time favorite baseball player) being inducted into the Hall of Fame (a year late) and inspired by a train of thought that I've been musing over for at least half a year, I present for your consideration a bit of speculative fiction. Consider if you will an alternate universe, very much like our own, except in that a couple of Toronto GM's made a handful of different decisions at key points in the '90s.

I concede to you willingly that in order to create this chain of events I have to make quite a few assumptions in the absence of firm evidence. but then, I told you it was fiction - just roll with it!
Another caveat is the so-called Butterfly Effect. that is, you change one thing and a cascade of other changes follow, the wider the ripples get the less predictable the outcome. if it were really possible to go back and makes these changes, injuries wouldn't have necessarily happened at the same time, hits wouldn't have fallen in in the same way and so forth. But if I hold to that concept than this post is useless so don't get too caught up in the details.

What I propose here is three key players, in my opinion, that Toronto let get away who should never have been allowed to leave when they did. i want to transpose the stats these players accumulated elsewhere during the years I contend they should have been here and, where necessary, change other personnel moves which would have been the natural result of their presence here.
Think of these as the Alternate Jays.

For the sake of breaking up the very great length, this post will have an overview of how the 90's might have looked in this other space-time continuum (in quantum theory, it DID happen this way in SOME universe!) and how i justify doing it that way. Then in comments below, there will be two separate comments with elaborations on the theme if you want to read that much.

Let's begin with a modified time-line of the key moves:

December 10, 1991 - Toronto GM Pat Gillick trades Jeff Kent and others to the NY Mets for David Cone and therefore drop negotiations to sign veteran ace Jack Morris.

December 6, 1992 - Gillick decides to invest in the much younger in house option of Jimmy Key instead of aging ace Dave Stewart. Key is signed to a three year deal wort a little over $15 million and Stewart goes to the New York Yankees. This comes a week before the Jays re-sign David Cone to a three year $18 million deal.

November 1, 1995 - Blue Jays declined contract option on Joe Carter.

December 1, 1995 - Toronto GM Gord Ash holds a joint news conference to announce that he has resigned Jimmy Key to a 3 yr. 10 million deal and David Cone to a 3 yr. 18 million deal. As a result, Erik Hanson will never wear a Blue Jays uniform.

December 12, 1995 - Toronto signs Roberto Alomar to 3 yr, $17.5 mil deal.

Winter 1998-99 - Key retires, Roger Clemens is dealt (per request) to the Yankees and Cone leaves as FA for big offer from those same Yankees. Alomar is re-sgned, for 3 years with a 4th year option this time.

Sounds good? Just a few key turning points. Primarily involving three crucial players. Why did I include the departure of Carter? That's part of the answer to what I anticipate to be the primary objection, to wit "they could never have afforded that." I disagree, and I'll show you why.

What follows is a list of the 11 year period of which I speak ('92-'02) with the first column representing the teams actual payroll, as reported by USAToday, the second column being the Alternate payroll per my proposals above (assuming the Jays equal the salary those players got elsewhere), and the third column noting the amount of salary change +/- along with a running total in parenthesis. This also assumes the absence of certain players unmentioned who would have been pushed off the roster or not acquired.
(figures in millions)

'92 - $43.66 - $43.49 - -$0.17 (-$0.170)
'93 - $45.75 - $45.95 - $0.200 - ($30k)
'94 - $41.92 - $48.02 - $6.1 - ($6.13)
'95 - $49.79 - $54.36 - $4.57 - ($10.7)
'96 - $28.49 - $30.36 - $1.87 - ($12.57)
'97 - $45.89 - $48.82 - $2.93 - ($15.5)
'98 - $48.42 - $63.29 - $14.87 - ($30.37)
'99 - $48.17 - $54.67 - $6.5 - ($36.87)
'00 - $46.36 - $52.11 - $5.75 - ($42.62)
'01 - $76.89 - $82.09 - $5.2 - ($47.82)
'02 - $76.86 - $81.39 - $4.53 - ($52.35)

I hope it's obvious I declined Carter to help keep the three guys I retained for '96.

Now, an extra $52 million sounds like a lot, but over 11 years that's only an average of ~4.7 per season which isn't bad at all. Still, it takes a huge leap of faith to overlook the big leap in '98 (almost $15 million). To partially account for this, I'm going to postulate that keeping the big 3 after '95 meant that the Jays didn't sign Benito Santiago after '96, and Randy Myers after '97.

That supposition would mean that the Jays payroll in '97 would only rise $430k and the total increase from '92 to '97 was a paltry $13 million ($2.6 per year). That would also reduce the '98 deficit by ~$8 million for a somewhat more acceptable increase of just under $6.5 mil. Those two contracts would save the team $12.5 million. If you want more savings, I have one more layer to add which works both financially and talent wise. After the ‘98 season they dealt Woody Williams for Joey Hamilton which turned out to be a disaster. Now the easy thing to suggest is just keeping Williams and that saves you ~$4.5 mil over the three years (‘99-‘01). You can re-add a small amount for low priced guys to take the place of these three (a scrub for Santiago while O’Brien starts one more year; a marginal reliever at the bottom of the bullpen and Escobar acts as closer in ‘98; and there were enough in-house pitchers for the rotation as I’ll demonstrate below).

So you have the “Bad Three” to lose to balance the cost of the “Good Three” I want to keep. So here’s the above salary structure with the second column reflecting the second revision:

First five years unchanged:

'92 - $43.66 - $43.49 - -$0.17 (-$0.170)
'93 - $45.75 - $45.95 - $0.200 - ($30k)
'94 - $41.92 - $48.02 - $6.1 - ($6.13)
'95 - $49.79 - $54.36 - $4.57 - ($10.7)
'96 - $28.49 - $30.36 - $1.87 - ($12.57)

With the noted alterations:

'97 - $45.89 - $46.32 - $0.43 - ($13.0)
'98 - $48.42 - $54.87 - $6.45 - ($19.45)
'99 - $48.17 - $50.42 - $2.25 - ($21.70)
'00 - $46.36 -$46.61 - $0.25 - ($21.95)
'01 - $76.89 - $74.84 - $-2.05 - ($19.90)
'02 - $76.86 - $81.39 - $4.83 - ($24.43)

That’s an average increase of $2.22 million a year over what actually took place. Of course, you have to have on-field results to justify the bigger increases. Over half of the additional outlay occurs in just two of these 11 years - 1994 which you would think would be easy to sell coming off back-to-back championships. The other, of course was for 1998. So how do the Alternate Jays do?

Take a break and grab a coffee if you need to - consider this an intermission.....Back? Ok, moving on...

Again, I’m assuming an “all other things being equal” situation when clearly all other things won’t be equal. Also, I’m assuming for the sake of the fantasy that Gord Ash makes the same money-saving choices I would have made. Not, of course, a sure thing - although with Dave Stewart never having worn a Jays uniform, he might not have been here to sell Gord on the idea of Hamilton so there’s that. Anyway, don’t nit-pick me with the obvious “yeah but” reactions. Also, I’m using ERA+ and OPS+ for ease of research and comparison. It makes the points well enough.

1992
The Scenario assumes David Cone with the team from Opening Day and everything else being the same.
David Cone, in our world, got 27 starts for the Mets and was MUCH better than Morris was for the Jays over that period. The Jays went 20-7 with Morris starting though, so one can't postulate too much of a gain in wins, and whoever picks up Morris' September starts likely gives that win or two back (barring another trade but let's not get THAT deep). Call it a wash on in-season wins.

In the ALCS, Morris gave up 9 runs in 12 2/3 IP - Jimmy Key would have likely been the starter in his place and I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he'd have done no worse and likely better, although the machinations of bullpen usage go crazy then. In the World Series Morris had an ERA of almost 9 - it doesn't really matter who would have gotten those IP.

1993
We assume Morris and Stewart were never on the Jays, and both Cone and Jimmy Key remain on their roster in ‘93. Cone’s ERA+ in ‘93 was 138 which was easily better than anyone on that team in our world - Morris’ was 70. Key’s ERA+ was 139, and Stewart’s was 98. They also combined for 490 IP as opposed to the 310 recorded by the aging guys who we are replacing. The team won 95 games that year, with this upgrade it might easily have topped 100.

1994
This is the year that David Cone won the AL CY Young award with an ERA+ of 171, while Key led the league in wins and had an ERA+ of 141. How would that have fit into Our Jays? Dave Stewart’s 82 and likely Al Lieter’s 95 would have not been in evidence. Lieter would probably have displaced Greg Cadaret and Scott Brow in the bullpen and 49 really ugly innings go away.
That ‘94 team went off a cliff compared to the previous years, but this pitching upgrade wold have made a massive difference. This upgrade wouldn’t have turned that 55-60 team into a playoff team most likely, but it would have certainly challenged the O’s for second place.

1995
the ‘95 Jays went 56-88 and finished in last place, 30 games out. Cone started the year with the Blue Jays and was dealt to the Yankees mid-season but in my alternate world, he’s seen as a cornerstone and he’s not going anywhere. However, Key got hurt in ‘95 and had a forgettable campaign. If we assume all things equal we have to assume he would have been little help to the ‘95 Alternate Jays. Still, Cone remaining spares us Danny Darwin and it’s easy to presume an upgrade of 6-8 games in the standings. Enough to get out of last place at least.

1996
For our ‘96 squad we’ve kept these two important pitchers, and we’ve chosen to retain Alomar instead of Carter. Key in ‘96 was just a bit above average coming back from the injury (107+) and Cone missed 2/3 of the season to injury, although he was excellent in his 11 starts. But Key blocks out the awful Erik Hanson (93 ERA+) and Cone at least could have taken the 11 starts that went to Marty Janzen (who we wouldn’t have had anyway in the Alternate-verse) who also sucked. I feel safe in suggesting 3 or 4 extra wins.
As for the hitters, Alomar’s OPS+ was 136 and Carter’s was 95. As a secondary effect, Alomar kills off the awful at bats contributed by Tomas Perez and Felipe Crespo (64 and 67 respectively), while Carter’s ABs go primarily to Robert Perez and Jacob Brumfield (93 and 92) which means that LF is essentially a wash and 2B get’s VASTLY better. I’m too lazy to even attempt to parse out how that affects the wins since a few more marginal wins won’t make them a playoff team - but 8 more wins in all gets them over .500 and I could defiantly see that.

1997
Alomar missed almost a third of ‘97 but was excellent when he played, and Crespo was a competent hitter this year as the likely injury fill in. Carlos Garcia played 103 games in our dimension and “produced” an OPS+ of 47, while Alomar played 112 games and posted a 134. Carter was most often a DH in ‘97 and his OPS+ was an embarrassing 77. Shannon Stewart would be the most obvious candidate to pick up at bats and he was at 113 as a rookie that year. There’s a lot of improvement there.
On the pitching side, Cone posted a 159, Key a 128, and they combined for 407 IP, either of which alone would have produced the second best total on the ‘97 Jays. Key could replace almost all of Robert Person and Chris Carpenter (81 and 89) and Cone would absorb the work of Woody Williams who wasn’t awful. But his 104 pales obviously in comparison.
It’s reasonable, I think, to suppose all this takes a 76-86 record over .500 and into third place - but not to the playoffs.

1998
The last year of our Fantasy monster pitching staff is upon us. We only need to make up four games this year to make the playoffs as the wild card team and the right to face the Indians in the first round. I’m going to stick with Cone blocking Williams which means his 125 replacing Williams’ 103. Key lost his job in the rotation for the O’s that year, despite having posted average work - I’m going to say he remains a starter with the Jays a bit longer than 11 turns. Since I need Escobar to close (where he’ll do a better job than Myers), we’ll start by giving his 10 (good) starts to Key, along with Hanson’s atrocious 8 starts, along with two ugly spot starts by Dave Stieb. The result is an ERA about half a run higher than Key’s was.
On the offensive side, Alomar’s ‘98 was easily his worst year of the decade, with only a 100 OPS+ but Craig Grabek who got almost 2/3 of the starts at 2B in Toronto only came up with a 76. Carter was, of course, gone by now even in the real world.
So, does this equal five more wins? I think so. I can’t guess how it would have went down with Cleveland but Clemens and Cone would have been pretty tough to beat.

1999
This one hurts me because I really expect that if the ‘98 Jays make the playoffs, Clemens doesn’t (unofficially) opt out. I’m going to nod in the direction of what that means but because I want to keep the focus on the three good guys, I can’t bring myself to extrapolate this to the guy who’s turned himself into such a pariah. The truth is, what he did and what Wells did in his place is pretty much a wash in ‘99 anyway.
Alomar, on the other hand, was back in form with a 139 OPS+ which easily destroys Homer Bush’s 96. That would add a couple of marginal wins I’m sure but the team would have still been well back of the playoffs.

2000
Bush slipped to 75, Alomar had a 114. If you want to look at pitching Clemens pitched marginally better than Wells, wins aside. Still, this might have gotten them the 3 games they needed for second place but they were 8 games out of the wild card and you can find that in one player most of the time.

2001
Alomar over Bush 150-89 - Were Clemens here he’d have likely saved us from the dreaded Loaiza acquisition and I don’t need to make that comparison for you do I? Still, while the Jays were only 2.5 games behind for second place, the Wild Card team that year won 102 games so no playoffs.

2002-2003
Robbie is in decline now - would have blocked Hudson who actually hit slightly better both years but likely no major impact on results. This assumes JP would have been kinda forced to pick up the option on sentiment.

How might the Jays fans feel about the team now if the team had only 5 sub-.500 teams in 29 years (1983 through 2010)? True, it would still be 13 years since a playoff appearance but those difficult post-strike years (and most of a decade of sucky ownership) would have been much mitigated by teams which had some hope.

You may be wondering what Key and cone have to do with keeping Robbie Alomar a (nearly) life-long Blue Jay? My feeling is that I can't really justify the assumption we could have kept Robbie on a re-building team. the strong pitching staff represents the "commitment to winning" that both drives revenues and provides motivation to Alomar. There are a list of moves the Jays made, or failed to make, over the years which I'd love to go back and reverse, but none more important to me than the failure to retain Roberto Alomar. It gives me just the tiniest hint of bittersweet emotion about what will otherwise be a glorious afternoon.

(if you haven't had enough yet, see the comments below for more)

Looking back to see forward

2011-07-17T04:43:00.004-04:00

(Yes, I'm four days late, what of it?)

It's customary in the wake of the All Star Break to take a look at how the first half went in anticipation of the second half. Rather than do grades and stuff, or drown you in stats, i just want to kind of give you my brief take on the team by positions, both in terms of looking back and looking ahead.

Lineup

Catcher: JP Arencibia was, for a while, on a pace to have the best offensive season anyone has ever had at this position in a Blue Jays uniform, then through a combination of slight injuries, and the league adjusting to him, he went into a notable offensive tailspin (he hit .135 over 26 games mostly in June). Anytime you are on the down cycle of the adjustment process things look bad but I'm as confident as is rational that JP will adjust in reply and have a productive second half. Reports about his defense are mixed, and the common assumption is that Travis d'Arnaud will yet take his job, but that's probably 2013. in the mean time, the Jays will have a fine catcher.
First Base: Adam Lind is back to being Adam Lind. At his peak this year he was among the 2 or 3 best hitters in the league. He, too, went through an extended slump which is, in fact, ongoing. don't worry about it. Such corrections happen and he'll have another hot streak soon. His defense has been, by most accounts, surprisingly good given his lack of pro experience there.

Second Base: Sigh. Aaron Hill gets on a little roll, nothing major, just kind of signs that there might be hope, then it falls apart again. At this rate, they might as well park him at #9 until the off-season and look elsewhere. I've loved the guy since he came up and defended him often when others ripped him but for whatever reason, he's just not finding the results and he's beginning to carry his frustration into the field.

Shortstop: Yunel Escobar is on pace to rival the best offensive year even posted by a Toronto shortstop, Tony Fernandez '87 if you were wondering, and playing solid and sometimes spectacular defense.
Third Base: has been a train wreck and I refuse to look at the blood and gore. if things go well we've a little more than 2 weeks before Brett Lawrie (i.e. the Savior) gets here. I'm going to keep looking ahead to that happy day.
Left Field: coming into Saturday's play, Travis Snider was hitting .400 with an OPS over 1.000 since his return from Vegas. obviously that will not continue, but one could hope he's turned the corner. if he has, he'll be a monster. Oh, and he's a solid and potentially above average LF too.
Center field: Rajai Davis has been a crashing disappointment and really, on a decent team he's the 4th or 5th OF. There's not a lot of opportunity to improve this situation out there (the jays actually toyed with giving Snider a shot at the job) but fan's patience (and likely management's) is wearing thin.

Right Field: Jose Bautista, duh. Yes he's playing 3B right now, but that's only for a few more weeks. in the mean time we've seen a lot of Eric Thames out there. Technically Thames is no RF, he barely has the arm for left - Snider ought to be over here, but for whatever reason the team hasn't often done it that way. So far Thames has been a monster offensively, which WON'T last. But when he comes down he's still going to be better than a lot of "experts" think he's going to be. The challenge will be to find a way to get him on the field. Coming into Saturday's game, his OPS since his last recall (in 7 games) is 1.055, but his BABiP is .404 and that will almost certainly cool.

DH: Edwin Encarnacion continues to redeem his "lost" season when he doesn't have to worry about the leather. In his last 17 games he has an .884 OPS and as a DH, on the season, it's .832 but the kid procession will hurt him. Eric Thames will cut into his AB when Lawrie arrives, it's inevitable. Don't be shocked if you see EE traded in August if he continues to build credibility as a DH.

The Bench of Molina (having a career year at the plate) McDonald (an invaluable vet with so much youth around) and Corey Patterson (who really needs to lose his job to Adam Loewen in August) is reasonable and two of the three are valuable.

By late August I'd think it would be perfectly reasonable to be running this lineup out to see how it worked in anticipation of next year:

Escobar - SS
Lawrie - 3B
Lind - 1B (break up lefties better, let him take advantage of the "protection" factor)
Bautista - RF
Snider - LF
Arencibia - C
Thames - DH (LF)
Hill - 2B
Davis - CF
Bench - Molina, Loewen, McDonald
Rotation

Ricky Romero - In a bit of a reversal at the moment, as will happen over the course of the season for 95% of all pitchers. He's had basically three bad games all year. Don't worry about him. unless he's going against the Red Sox.
Brandon Morrow - All the higher metrics like him better than Romero, his FIP is 10th in the majors, and over his last six games he's posted a 2.68 ERA. If last year is any indication, he'll roar through the second half. One of these years he's going to put together a season like Verlander is having.
Brett Cecil - The sample is small, but the last two games have been most impressive and the opposition was not easy. I'm optimistic he's found his groove but it's more hunch than evidence right now.
Jo-Jo Reyes - I continue to be mystified, though not surprised, at the constant call to DFA Reyes. it's true his results are wildly inconsistent, but he did run off a nine game stretch in which his ERA was 3.65 which is entirely respectable. It's also worth noting that in all games against opponents other than NY and Boston his ERA is 3.87 (IIRC). Which is not a defense of his presence in the Jays rotation, but a an acknowledgment that he DOES have value. Value that i'm hopeful AA is about to cash in within the next two weeks. Because even though he's not a train wreck as some imagine, the Jays have other pitchers who need to be taking that turn more than he does. Hes got talent, he needs to find a way to use it consistently, but if everyone is healthy, he's no better than the sixth best option here by years end and those behind him wouldnt be very far behind.
Carlos Villianueva - He's had a tremendous run of nine starts (he got beat up today but I'm talking about the first half) and you cant not be impressed but you have to remind yourself - it's NINE starts. He's going to be facing the risk of fatigue soon as it's been some years since he's pitched this much. With three other guys who may well need to find major league work, you have to assume at some point he comes out of the rotation. But it's impossible to predict when.
Jesse Litsch - His rehab assignment is up today and the word is he'll be optioned to AAA tomorrow. Jesse is a hard case to diagnose. His K rate was up noticeably this year which is normally a sign of growth and progress, but he's had more trouble staying healthy than anyone should be comfortable with. By most measures, he deserves to be recalled if (when!) Jo-Jo is traded, which would save his option as he'd be down less than 20 days, but it might be that the numbers game works against him.
Kyle Drabek - left his last AAA start with a muscle strain which makes prognostications concerning his return problematic. for now I'm going on the assumption that he won't be back until rosters expand in September, but if he ran off 4 or 5 impressive starts he might change that. If he doesn't miss a turn he'd have nine starts in Vegas before September 1 - that's not an eternity.
Dustin McGowan - His 30 day rehab ends August 2 and we are told that it's possible for the Jays to deactivate him for 7 days and re-start that clock, but maybe they don't do that. Everything I say about McGowan, OF COURSE, comes with the caveat "assuming no setbacks" but with that said - It's not a minor thing that his rehab ends right after the trade deadline where Reyes (or possibly Villineueva) could very well be traded. He's up to roughly three innings now, and he has time for three more starts before the end of the month. If he con comfortably go five or six IP without problems, the Jays face a choice.
McGowan has no options, and although with the ability to restart the rehab clock that's not a major concern THIS year, but what about 2012? There's a good argument that the Blue Jays would profit greatly from seeing McGowan do major league work outside September in 2011 in order to have a better idea about the 2012 rotation. I, for one, think that would be a very sound strategy if they think they can manage his work load in the majors as the comeback continues.

All things considered, I'd like to see McGowan get the first opening when Reyes is dealt and I wouldn't object to sending Villianeva back to the pen if (when?) a reliever is dealt so as to save Listch's option. That doesn't make room for Drabek before September but that seems to me the best management of assets. particularly in that you probably want to build value for Litsch so you can shop him in the off-season.

If all goes well, I could see a 2012 rotation of Romero - Morrow - McGowan - Cecil - Drabek and I could see that being a very very good group.

Bullpen

Frank Francisco - No one is any more mystified here than I am. Normally in a situation like this you say "he must be hurt" but basically he's just having the pitcher version of Adam Lind's 2010. It makes no sense, it shouldn't be happening - but there it is. The root of the problem though, is control. His walk rate is way up over what he had over the last three years coming into the year, and when you pitch behind, you tend to give up untimely hits. You'd like to say "this cant continue" but we're speaking of relievers, who the hell knows really?

Jon Rauch - Lots of dissatisfaction with Rauch, and most of it unjustified. It's true he's pitching a bit worse than his career norms, but nothing disastrous. His biggest weakness is, he just doesn't give off the closer "vibe" (much like Frasor has always felt) and when your closer is tanking, the natural emotion is to look around for another and Rauch doesn't seem like it. We complain about managers being locked into the closer-myth, but a LOT of fans are too. I expect he'll keep cruising along at about this level, being neither the villain or the hero.

Jason Frasor - the new all time appearance leader among Jays pitchers as of today, Frasor has been perfectly fine. He is, for all the grief he's gotten over the years, the rock of this group. And the one guy out of the five potential free agents that really does need to be back next year. As with any reliever, he could blow up, but don't hold your breath.

Octavio Dotel - You all know how I've been counting the days until Dotel was traded since he was signed. I didn't like the deal and it wasn't so much whether or not he pitched well, he just seemed unnecessary. And all the more so as other veterans were added. I still think he's probably the first relief pitcher out the door when deals start happening. But credit where due, lately he's been anything but a negative. In his last 19 appearances, spanning 16 IP, he's given up exactly 2 earned runs. In his last 17 appearances he's walked ONE batter. I expect this level of work won't last, and I won't feel any remorse if he's dealt. But you have to tip your hat.

Shawn Camp - Camp had three quietly impressive seasons for the Toronto squad but that might be winding down. his K rate in particular is down while his H/9 rate is up. i don't think he's going to be a problem over the rest of the year, but I'm less happy to see him in tight spots than I used to be. I have a feeling someone is going to overpay this winter.

Casey Janssen - Expected back Monday after missing a month to injury, Janssen was pitching the best he ever has and looking forward to the second half and to 2012, he really should be pushed more and more into a prominent role. in fact, I'd be perfectly happy to see him given the ninth inning. Take away one apperance (the next to last before he hit the DL, and possibly influenced by pain) and his ERA is 2.00 and that's way better than Rauch and Francisco can offer. I don't know what John Farrell is thinking, but with Frasor and Janssen from the right, and Dotel where appropriate, and Zep and Perez from the left, he's got a fine back of the bullpen - if he just used them in the back instead of the bigger name guys.

Marc Rzepczynski - He's settled into the Scott Downs 2.0 role pretty seemlessly, apart from the very occasional off day. In three appearances, he's allowed more than one ER, going 1.1 IP over those with 7 ER allowed. outside those, he's got an ERA of 1.26 over 35.2 IP and, with the above stated caveats always in mind, I have every confidence such work will continue.

Luis Perez - Okay, I totally whiffed on this guy. More than once over the last couple of years I asked "why are we burning a 40 man roster spot on this bum?" Well, I sit corrected. for a second lefty in the pen, you could do (and many teams do) a lot worse. Still, he's young and the sample size is small so i don't want to overstate the situation.

That's a cram packed bullpen, and if Villianueva were to be sent back from the rotation, someone would have to go. Between the lines, that's obviously a sign to trade Camp, or Rauch, or Francisco - but all of these guys mean draft picks next year and are by no means guaranteed to bring back a similar return this month. Dotel being on a roll might bring a similar return (plus, he might just accept arbitration this winter) and that makes him seemingly the most likely to be traded. Once you get past those, if there were a rash of injuries or something, Danny Farquhar or Brad Mills seem the obvious choices to plug in from AAA.

On the whole, I really like the potential for this team to max out the youth movement soon and ride that pony into the new year. Looking ahead, I only see one potential free agent that makes me go "Hmmmm" - and that's Lance Berkman (because you can keep the deal short) - assuming he's down with being a DH which is probably not the case. You'll here a whole lot of griping over the next nine months about how the jays are not spending enough money on major league acquisitions. I, for one, had rather seen as many home grown players carry the load as possible. these are exciting times for me.

Mid Season Prospect Ranking

2011-07-13T14:48:00.002-04:00

Everybody's doing it - you know ima gonna!

I am going to try to be a little less verbose than usual here because I've been giving you blurbs on these guys all season. This is sort of a "work in progress" list in that any time the sample size gets smaller the rankings get more tentative.

1. Brett Lawrie - Duh. Probably won't be on the off-season list because he's about to graduate.
2. Henderson Alvarez - Increasing notoriety means scouts are noticing something exciting.
3. Travis d'Arnaud - setting himself apart from other catcher prospects in the system.
4. Anthony Gose - still very young, but very exciting.
5. Jake Marisnick - moving slower than Gose but may be just as good.
6. Aaron Sanchez - very raw but huge ceiling.
7. Deck McGuire - handling first pro-season with ease, may reach AA this year.
8. Carlos Perez - not a great year, but has great talent.
9. Zach Stewart - difficult to tell from stats but team clearly loves him.
10. Eric Thames - another potential graduate.
11. Drew Hutchinson - has rocketed up my chart, would go higher in weaker system.
12. Adeiny Hechevarria - already best glove in baseball, have to wait on bat.
13. Antonio Jimenez - bat slacking some as season wears on.
14. Nestor Molina - out of nowhere and on the radar.
15. Chad Jenkins - still watching to see how he plays at upper levels.
16. Marcus Knecht - another fast riser.
17. Moises Sierra - his manager loves him, stats need to trend upward a bit.
18. Noah Syndergaard - another guy who'd be higher in most other systems.
19. Adonis Cardona - still largely speculative.
20. Asher Wojciechowski - struggled for a while, possible over-reliance on fastball.
21. Adam Loewen - I hate ranking him this low, I think he'll play well in the majors.
22. Mike McDade - keeps proving doubters wrong.
23. David Cooper - knocked down a couple of points for lack of defensive skills.
24. Michael Crouse - could climb a lot of refined.
25. Justin Nicolino - has been very impressive so far.
26. DJ Thon - speculative so far.
27. Kellen Sweeney - likewise.
28. Griffin Murphy - and again.
29. Joel Carreno - another guy who's exceeding the professional's expectations.
30. (tie) Justin Jackson - could still be a valuable utility guy (Ryan Freel with a better glove?)
30. (tie) Brad Mills - seems unlikely to get a chance for the jays but being the best pitcher in the PCL should get you SOME notice.

After the draftees sign or not, some of them will be top 30 names - Beede likely in the top 10 and Norris and Dean, IF they signed, would probably be in the top 20. That could go as high as 9 or 10, depending on who signs, in the top 50 .

--------------------------------------------------------
Bonus material!

This is a strange, as Paul Harvey used to say: Shi Davidi reports that John Farrell has set his post-break rotation thusly:

7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil

Looks fine, right? You just jumped into the logical rotation at #4 (Reyes) and moved on. BUT Farrell goes on to say that after the first time through he'd use the off-day to flip Reyes and Romero to - per Richard Griffin - "get Ricky back in the top spot."

HUH?!?

That rotation HAS Ricky in the top spot! Here's what happens with the reported flip:

7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil
7/20 - Romero (on three days rest!)
7/21 - Villianueva
7/22 - Reyes
7/23 - Morrow
7/24 - Cecil
7/25 - off
7/26 - Romero
7/27 - Villianueva
7/28 - Reyes
7/29 - Morrow
7/30 - Cecil
7/31 - Romero
(After the deadline, we don't know who will be in the rotation)

Villianueva is our #2 now? How does this make sense? Farrell said they had mapped out the rest of the season and they tried to plan ahead for favorable match-ups and such but I've done that too (I do it all the time, don't ask) and there's no improved match-up (which really comes down to throwing your best guys at the best teams) by flipping Ricky and Jo-Jo. The only thing i could see is getting Reyes' last start in July three days before the end of the month so as to maximize the trade window, but I can't see a team significantly changing their intent based on one start.

I'm confuzzled.

I'm going to try and knock out a review/preview on the major league squad tomorrow, I'm ready to see the new kid-friendly team show their stuff.

3/5 Farm Report

2011-07-10T20:39:00.003-04:00

Technically speaking, the minor league season is more than 3/5 done. I'm using the AAA season for reference, since there's not a consistency among levels, and the Vegas team arrives at the ASB having played 90 games, which splits easily into three 30 game sections, and the second half's 53 games split into two segments which is close to, but not quite, 30 games each. So it's actually just under 63% of the season - full disclosure.

Before I begin, I'll take brief note of some special cases:

Brett Lawrie - has been disabled for most of the last 30 games so there's nothing on the field really to report. You all know his story by now (was set to be called up when he was injured on a HBP). He tweeted this morning he was going out to take BP. Keep your eyes open for a report on how his hand responded. If there's no setback, he might make it back into a game by the weekend, or early next week. The original projection was a mid-to-late August recall, but if there's no setback, you might see him after the trade deadline passes on July 31.

Eric Thames - Among the statistical leaders in several PCL categories (his doubles pace pro-rates to 67 over a full AAA season), he was on a blistering pace when he was recalled from the minors for the second time on June 23 and he's putting down strong roots in the majors.

Now, to the folks still in the minors-

Hitters

1. Travis d'Arnaud - As much as JP Arencibia has put to rest a lot of his critics this year, offensively at least, the presence of d'Arnaud closing in the rear view mirror persists. Like Loewen, his early stats were unremarkable, but after returning from a mild concussion in early may he caught fire and has been en-flamed, apart from one brief slump in June, ever since. His OPS on the season is 4th in the Eastern league, but his OPS since returning from the DL is 1.000, which would be .008 off the league lead. For a catcher. In June and July his BB/K ratio has been down, but otherwise, you have to love the guy. and his defense draws raves as well. Before you start checking the calendar though, remember that the Blue Jays have every reason to take it slow with him. My guess is that barring injury or trade to JPA, it will be something like June of 2013 before he batters down the door to the majors.

2. Marcus Knecht - The clock HAS to be ticking down it's final moments before Knecht is promoted to Dunedin. He's spanked the Midwest League pitching to enough of an extent to punch his ticket. He's second in the league in OPS, third in OBP and BA. and the other guys up there with him are 2-3 years old than the just-turned-20 year old Knecht. It's not like there's any notable prospect blocking his advance.

3. Jake Marisnick - A recent column by the Sun's Bob Elliot postulated the observation of one scout which suggested that the outfield quartet in Lansing reminded him of the days in the late 80's when Glenallen Hill, Derrik Bell, Junior Felix, and Mark Whiten were were climbing the Jays minor league ladder as teammates. Knecht and Marisnick make up half that set (along with Michael Crouse and Marcus Brisker) and both of them are quite possibly better than any of the original quartet. After getting off to a blazing start in April, Marisnick cooled a bit in May but has since recovered most of his momentum. Like all young hitters, he needs to refine that whole BB/K thing, but for his first year in pro ball, he can hold his head high. I've a hunch he might get a taste of the FSL in early to mid-August.

4. David Cooper - Clearly Cooper isn't showing himself a power hitter. His HR total (8) pro-rate out to a pedestrian 20 over a full AAA season. but wait, there's more. Cooper has an astonishing 35 doubles - THAT works out to 74 over 143 games. it also leads the PCL. Cooper's OPS leads the league once you eliminate veteran organizational players like Cody Ransom and Jai Miller. He leads in BA and OBP without that caveat.
There's a running debate over whether or not Cooper has actual major league potential, and what his ceiling might be. observers like Kieth Law think he's little more than an org player himself (but the law thinks Thames is a 4th outfielder too) and the lack of optimism is not entirely unwarranted. but he's doing everything offensively he's capable of doing, and it would not stun me if AA managed to milk some value out of him in a trade before the month is over.

5. Adam Loewen - We know by now that Loewen got off to a mediocre start (he didn't make my first minor league report and I was on the verge of doubting my previous enthusiasm), however, since May 1 it's been a different story. Over those 65 games his OPS has been 1.007 (which would rank 8th in the PCL if it were his full season figure) and this from a guy who has almost 250 fewer minor league at bats than 20 year old Anthony Gose. He's still striking out too much, as you might expect, but it's well past time he was getting some respect. I, for one, would very much like to see him in Toronto beginning August 1. If that means Corey Patterson is on the waiver wire, so much the better.

6. Mike McDade - People keep doubting him, and he keeps right on hitting. Second in the EL in doubles and RBI, in the top 10 in HR, BA, SLG, and OPS. and a growing reputation as a perfectly good fielder, despite the "bad body" label. He does have a history of weight concerns, but he's worked hard to get a grip on that and on that. he's listed at 260 but reports have had him well below that.

7. Art Charles - While it's early to make too much of a conclusion about the short season players, who are just now passing the 20 games played mark, Charles is such a standout that he has some attention coming. His OPS ranks third in the Appalachian League, and his 8 HR is one off the league lead, his 8 doubles are 2 off the league lead, and all that in 81 AB. He also leads the AL in RBI. The 19 year old 1B was a 20th round pick in 2010 so he's definitely an underdog, but you have to tip your cap. Another short season players on Note include Vancouver CF Jon Jones - not the Martian Manhunter, the other one - who's displayed doubles power and good speed.

Pitchers

1. Drew Hutchinson - On July 6 Hutch came on in relief (to begin the third inning) of the re-habbing Dustin McGowan and pitched into the sixth inning before giving up his first earned run of the day, of, and his first earned run in 43 innings pitched. Over that stretch, he posted 50 K's against only 5 walks, and his GO:FO ration was over 3:1, while allowing only 22 hits. almost all of them singles. He's in the FSL now, and he's defiantly on the radar.

2. Henderson Alvarez - Alvarez pitched a clean 6th inning in the Futures game today, including getting an out from the guy who's possibly the top hitter still in the minors. that's in recognition of his obvious talent. Having gained zip on his fastball this year Alvarez is not a sleeper on anyone's chart anymore. He's still somewhat raw and observers think his K numbers will increase as he refines his approach.

3. Nestor Molina - Molina has appeared in 16 games this year, starting 13 of them - fully half of the 26 earned runs he's allowed game in just 2 of them. Outside thouse two hiccups, his ERA is a stunning 1.57!, Oh, and he has 93 K and 8 walks. This from a guy who came into the season with less than 80 IP in the pros, almost all of it in relief.

4. Deck McGuire - McGuire has been the picture of steady. Just about any way you split his stats they look pretty close. His walk rate is higher than you'd like to see, but there's nothing else for anyone to be disappointed with.

5. Joel Carreno - Under-rated by most observers, pegged as a future reliever who's stuff won't play as well at higher levels (and we have seen other pitchers look great at AA and blow up at AAA), Carreno just keeps striking out the opposition. Opponents are hitting a pitiful .185 off him, he has over 30 more IP than hits allowed, and more than a k an inning. The walks are fairly high but otherwise, he's been great, pedigree or no. And all that after he was pretty bad in April.

6. Sean Nolin - He played himself off my last update with a couple of stumbles just before I wrote that entry, he hasn't been all aces since then but his secondary number promise that the 2010 sixth round LHP has something going on. He has a 3.67 K:BB ratio as his most promising stat, but he spent a stint on the DL and came out of his last start early so he might still be dealing with that problem.

7. Justin Nicolino - As with the hitters, the short season pitchers haven't really accumulated a telling sample size, but Nicolino, a 2011 2nd round choice, has preformed great at a higher level than other more heralded high school selections. The 19 year old LHP has a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and opponents are hitting .150 against him. Also, he has twice as many IP as hits allowed, and it's not inconceivable at all that he gets a short test in Lansing 4 or 5 weeks from now. Other short-season pitchers worth congrats include supplemental round choice Noah Syndergaard who's preforming similarly to Nicolino though a step lower; David Rollins, a 24th round LH in the recent draft who's pitching even better than Syndergaard (SSSA!!) ; Myles Jays (2010 17th rounder) and ever-under-rated Deviy Estrada.

Sometime over the next week I'll take a look at the major league squad's first half and give you a look at my mid-season prospect ranking update (yes, I update the list every month or so - no YOU'RE obsessive).