Erik Bedard: a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Erik Bedard gets plenty of attention around here for his winning combination of being a stellar pitcher and a Canadian--an Upper Canadian no less!--so it is with great pleasure that I offer you this glimpse into his psyche from the ESPN.com Spring Training Blog:

BEDARD Q&A … SORT OF (5:08 p.m. ET)

Erik Bedard arrived in Seattle from Baltimore with a reputation as a taciturn guy who treats media interviews like root canal. He's living up to expectations.

After pitching three innings in a Cactus League game against the Angels on Wednesday, Bedard told Seattle beat reporters that he would be available to answer only four questions. When one writer asked, "Why only four?'' Bedard replied, "That's one.'' Bedard gave the press corps a break and stuck around for four more, but the entire interview lasted a grand total of one minute and 18 seconds -- at which point Bedard cut the session short and walked away from his locker. On a positive note, Bedard recovered from a rocky first outing and allowed only two hits in three innings against the Angels. By all indications, he plans to let his left arm do the talking this season.
-- Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com

I still hold out some faint hope that he winds up in T.O. as a free agent in 2010, partly because for the sheer pleasure of seeing the stunned reaction this sort of exchange would bring out of Richard Griffin, et. al.

And, deepest respect as always for Sir Winston Churchill.

-- Johnny Was

You Don't Know Dick

It's been a while, but I thought it was time to return my roots. That's right everybody, it's time for You Don't Know Dick.

What has he done this time? Well, Griffin starts off by saying the Sox are better because they didn't do anything. Alright, I'll buy that....full seasons from Lester & Buchholz...well not technically full seasons more like 150 or so innings by them and another 50-70 by some scrub cause you don't wanna overwork them too much. And I mean Lowell won't have as good a year as 06, but they're not that much worse off - and hey, they got rid of Gagne & Hinske. Addition by subtraction.

So what does Griffin think makes this team even better?

It may, in fact, be a blessing in disguise for the Sox that the rapidly declining skills of right-hander Curt Schilling have been sidelined for an indefinite period. It allows youngsters like Buchholz and cancer survivor Lester to step into the mix and evolve into big-time contributors by October.

Hold the phones there bud. Schilling had a 122 ERA+ last year. I realize he's old and all, but Buchholz & Lester aren't going to be able to pitch a full season cause of their innings restrictions. So now on top of the fact that they've got 2 inexperienced kids with no guarantee they'll do a good job, it's a blessing in disguise that Schilling is injured? A guy who can eat 100-200 innings while pitching above league average, who's capable of mentoring these kids through examples - and it's a "blessing in disguise" that he's injured? The Sox need a guy like Schilling who can pitch as often as possible to reduce the workload on Buchholz & Lester...

Well, maybe he's right. It's possible that Curt Schilling could be replaced by Bartolo Colon. And what an upgrade that'd be...

Now, I got nothing against Francona, but I thought this was mildly amusing:

As for the seemingly winter-long tussle over the services of the Twins' Cy Young Award winner, Johan Santana, won by the Mets, Francona looked at the negotiating battle as being part of the process.

"Because we're the Red Sox, we get involved in these things, which is pretty cool," Francona explained. "We're a player. At the same time, we love our young guys. I'm happy (not getting Santana). I think we were in a pretty good position."

You're happy not getting Johan Santana? I mean, don't get me wrong, I know he's defending his players and all. But he's happy he didn't get one of the top pitchers in the game? Yeah, I'm sure Francona would have rather trotted out Tim Wakefield instead of Johan Santana. I mean both of them have these weird pitches that go really slow and mess with the batter. Except for the fact that Santana isn't 100 years old and is one of the best pitchers in the game. But those are just minor details. Obviously, if you were managing the Red Sox you would be quite happy not being able to trot out Santana every 5th day.

Now, I noticed it's in (), so it's possible that Griffin substituted the fact that Francona is happy about not getting Santana. In which case, he, and not Francona, has lost his mind...

And then I saw this optimistic gem:

A 13-win deficit is a lot for the Jays to catch up against a Boston team that blends veterans and youngsters so effectively. Perhaps it's better the Jays set their sights on the Yankees and the wild card. That should be their target. It comes down to health.

Alright guys. We can't make first place. Boston is just too awesome (which is exactly why they're happy not to have Santana) to beat. Let's just give up any hope now, before we know if BJ is healthy, if Rolen can hit like it's 2004, or if Wells is remotely healthy. Griffin said Boston's too good, so let's just cut our losses and pray to the baseball God's that we come in second, and that when we make the wild card that the Angels or whoever wins the Central beats Boston for us. Cause if we can't beat them in the hypothetical season, we've damn well lost the hypothetical ALCS.

And just so you know, we lost it in 4. Highlights of the series will include a perfect game by Buchholz, a series ending pop up to 2B by Vernon, Lester dominating Overbay with 2 on to end game 3 (we only got on cause "scrappy" Eckstein & Johnson got hit by pitches), and Josh Beckett outdueling Roy Halladay in 10 innings.

Since I now know that we can't make first place, I'm going to curl into the fetal position wondering why I've wasted my life on a second place team....

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

A few weeks ago I made a note to self to start reading Jeremy Sandler, the baseball writer at the National Post, and then proceeded to ignore it almost immediately. Well, shame on me because he's a very solid writer, superior to most of the others I cite on a daily basis.

While the familiar faces at the Sun, Star and Globe were churning out near cookie cutter stories about a) Eckstein's scrappiness; b) Rolen's happiness; and c) Doc's spectacularness, Sandler dug a little deeper and decided to check in on an overlooked player we should be keeping tabs on, David Purcey.

Purcey is a physically imposing left-handed starter who was JP's first pick (16th overall) in the 2004 draft. Bastian has this scouting capsule:

The Good: Few left-handers around can match Purcey's combination of size and velocity. He's a big-bodied power pitcher whose fastball sits in the low 90s, and he can dial it up to 95 on occasion. He flashes a plus slider and also mixes in a change. Prior to 2007's unique injury situation, he had been a durable arm who carried his stuff late into games.

The Bad: Purcey's secondary stuff remains inconsistent, as does his command, as he's struggled with mechanical troubles throughout his career. Because of his limited arsenal, many ultimately project him as a reliever.

The peanut gallery has already labelled him a bust since he's entering his age 26 season and has yet to master AA. Expect the chorus to grow louder if Yankees "phenom" Phil Hughes, who was taken seven picks later, starts off well this year.

You might wonder why someone who's yet to put up an ERA under 5 in a full season at AA by his mid-20s would still merit the 'prospect' label. Last year Purcey started off gangbusters at New Hampshire, prompting many of the learned elders of Jays fandom to hop on board the bandwagon. He was then predictably felled by injury--he had surgery in June to remove cysts on his forearm, a bit of that going around--and was limited to 11 AA starts for the year. But, teasing us once again, he tore up the AFL, striking out 25, allowing only 11 hits and posting a 1.23 ERA in 25 IP against some of baseball's top prospects.

The chattering classes are now saying that if anyone in the Jays system is capable of pulling off a Dustin McGowan in 2007, it's David Purcey.

Back to Sandler. While JP cautions patience because not all prospects break on the same timetable, pitching coach Brad Arnsberg is a bit more frustrated:

"With that body and his stuff," Arnsberg says, "I was hoping he'd have year in the big leagues by now."

Arnie is pushing Purcey to push himself:

"I just said, 'You know, you're treading water, kid, and you got guys that are going to be passing you up there that shouldn't be passing you,'" Arnsberg says. "It's time for you to become a big-leaguer. We [were] having to send you back to Double-A to get your stuff straight and it's time for you to turn that corner."

Arnsberg says Purcey must be the self-declared ace in Syracuse this year. "He shouldn't go there thinking, 'I'm going to be one of the five starters.' He wants to be that guy that, 30 innings into a big-league season, if we have to make a phone call to get a starter up here, he should be that guy.

Having recently been diagnosed with ADD, Purcey is now taking medication that should enable him to focus better at this make or break point in his career. He's also a bit older, wiser, and hopefully capable of making the leap to the bigs. If AJ Burnett does depart after this season, there's a potential rotation spot waiting for him in 2009.

One shouldn't make outrageous, premature comparions, but it's worth nothing that this power lefty didn't really break until he was 25/26 and he went on to have a pretty decent career.

Looking at the other papers, Adam Lind is going to AAA with the right attitude. Should anyone get hurt this summer, he's immediately back in the mix. And we all knew he's in the fold for 2009 regardless. He took on a pretty serious offseason training regime and has let Matty Stairs take him under his wing, both smart moves so long as he doesn't suffer a keg stand injury. Lind doesn't blame Mickey Brantley for his hitting woes last year, which is noble because the man's no longer around to defend himself, but I'm going to go ahead and fault him anyway.

Why does The Star let pretty much anyone write baseball columns?

Brian Wolfe has been pitching like his job depended on perfection. It kind of does, so cool.

The Beej might throw in a real fake game this weekend.

ELSEWHERE:

DJF has been doing its damnedest to start Reed Johnson internet trade rumours, and looky here, the Mets will be without Moises Alou until mid-May at the earliest. Git'er done, JP! You'd figure Reed's game is more appealing to a NL team and he could keep David Wright company as the other token white guy on the Mets.

-- Johnny Was

You Big Dummy!

If I were a man of means, I'd order a gross of these so i could send one out as the "YouBig Dummy" of the week award. Or maybe that should be the "Big Dummy Other than Richard Griffin" of the week award. But hey, my fellow bloggers do a more than adequate job of kicking Uncle dick around so rather than duplicate their efforts, I'll award my YBDotW awards to less renowned dummies.

Like the people who ask Uncle Dick questions, fer instance!

Witness this guy, who's name is irrelevant to the point who served up the sort of softball that Griffin lives for in today's mailbag:

My question is, where’s the plan?

So we re-sign Johnny Mac, then you trade for Marco Scutaro, then you go get David Eckstein? You re-sign Reed Johnson, knowing that you want Matt Stairs and Adam Lind to play, and then you go out and get Shannon Stewart? Is J.P. just blindly going forward, grabbing who he can in a futile and vain attempt to make the playoffs? We currently have zero positional players coming up through our farm system. We aren't going to win anything with the team the way it is, so why are we not concentrating on the future?

Where to start? Does our ill-informed friend realize that Eckstien had turned down a 4 year deal from the Mets when we acquired Scutaro? Does he realize that McDonald couldn't be both a starter and a backup so someone besides Johnny Mac was necessary? Has he heard that Stewart turned down a two year offer before Johnson was re-signed?

Or, on the other hand, does he think it's a good thing to NOT add a player who makes your team better simply because he became available after you had made a lesser move? (laying aside the debate over whether Stewart makes us better).

Go back a couple of years. The Jays, with Koskie at 3B, make a nice deal for 1B Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee. Then, three weeks later the D'backs come to JP with an offer to deal Glaus - who was not thought by anyone to be on the market (though I had mentioned him as a player I'd target in the offseason back in September, no major media was talking about him). So, Mr. Phillips (oops!) what should JP have done in that situation? Said "Hey, ya know, no thanks. A month ago I'd have been all over this but not with Overbay here I really don't have room."? Maybe you would have been happy with Koskie at 3B for ever how many games he held together instead of Glaus. Different strokes and all that. But if having Koskie was such a good play, why was he so difficult to trade? (Same for Hinske too, BTW, Dick). But you can't argue that grabbing Overbay first, then Glaus, effectively leaving Koskie no place to play was evidence he had no plan. If he had known Glaus was going to have been available, he could have passed on Overbay and shifted Koskie to first - but circumstances changed.

In my opinion, the obvious play is that you seize the day when you can make your team better and make the move and then work out the ramifications later. In short, if you are so married to your "plan" that you let an opportunity to get better that you did not anticipate pass you by, then you better have one helluva plan. When circumstances change, plans have to be flexible. It does not indicate the lack of a plan that one adjusts to a changing circumstance (favorable or otherwise) in a manner which benefits the team. That should be pretty obvious.

But then, why am I arguing with a guy who claims we have "zero" positional players coming through the minors (who knew that Lind, Snider, Ahrens, Arenchiba, Thigpen, Jerolman, Diaz, Jackson, Eiland, et al were pitchers?) - I could just have posted his question and said "here's your t-shirt pal". I think most folks would understand why.

~WillRain

Really?

I was reading The Star today and I noticed that they had these sections on each of the players. They ask a couple of basic questions - who would you want to play you in the movies, who's your favourite player and so on. I can't find the online link, but today the spotlight was on Jason Frasor. The question asked was something to the effect of "What would you die for/most want?". You know what Frasor's answer was? "Scott Downs' Contract".

Really? Downs contract? All the players with high contracts on the team, and you choose Downs'? Not, you know, the guy making 126 million, but Downs?

My only guess was that he was thinking about a RP contract, but still. He could have mentioned any contract...

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

SPIKE LEE: "Would you like to subscribe to my newsletter on the White Man's Evils?"

ECKSTEIN: "I feel asleep during Inside Man."

In one for the history books, the Yankees apparently threw a perfect game against the Jays yesterday that was called early on account of a lack of players. Not liking the weather, players and fans alike gave up the ghost on this one around the fifth inning. Just keep that in mind before you put too much stock in spring numbers, sports fans.

JP will not go about saying this player has that role locked up, it's just alien to his DNA. When asked the seemingly innocuous question of whether Accardo fills the set-up role for us when BJ's healthy, Gibby said yes and JP said "woah woah woah." That's fine by me, not letting anyone get complacent seems like a pretty good idea. To think that resident leper Jason Frasor is going to take high leverage innings away from Accardo strains belief, but do what you have to do. Blair also reiterates that money is top of the list when it comes to bench construction, which means Stewart should have a definite edge over Sparky when it comes to our little LF duel.

Wilner seems to think Gibby could slot Rios in as our number two in the lineup.

The Yankees are an old creaky bunch that played bad baseball for about 3/4 of last season before going on a Zeus Hercules end run to clinch the Wild Card. Just how vulnerable are they this year? If you've got a very short attention span, Ken Fidlin answers that question for you in about 400 words. I'll have a look at some numbers and revisit this over the next few days.

ELSEWHERE:

Add Jonathan Paplebon to the list of rising stars disgrunted by their pre-arbitration salaries. Guys, you get millions for signing your first contract, before even playing a single pro game, and you'll become millionaires when you hit your arbitration years. The bigger question for Hamels, Fielder and Paps is whether their first free agent contracts will have eight or nine digits. As a thousandaire, I think I know a bit about money.

Are the O's going to trade Brian Roberts or what? They're apparently weighing a package from the Cubs that would likely include a shortstop who can't hit and a pitcher who can't throw strikes. Ok, ok, I'm being a bit facetious. If you're going to blow a team up, you might as well blow the whole damn thing up and trade everything you've got that isn't part of the future.

It might have been funny when David Spade did it in Black Sheep, but this is just discomforting. I mean, it's a plausible excuse, right? How many times have you got out of the shower in your hotel room, had your towel fall off, tripped, and landed completely naked in front of the window over-looking the pool with your dick in your hand?

-- Johnny Was

We Got Yahoo'd

Yahoo's Jeff Passan kind of looks like Ben Affleck, no? No one else sees it? Wait, I meant to say that he's come out with his take on the 2008 Blue Jays.

The crux of the piece is, shock horror!, it's going to take a full, healthy season from both of JP's two vaunted signings of the 2005-2006 offseason: AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan for things to work out. He writes, "the A.J. and B.J. Show never has played for a full season, and until it does, the Blue Jays will be more garter snake than python." Ok, I follow. But I do think this team is better prepared, psychologically and to a lesser extent depth-wise, to sustain the loss of one or both than it was a year ago.

Passan rebukes those who first ranted that JP was reckless for dropping over $100 million on these two and then felt vindicated by their subsequent injuries. The ever-escalating cost of pitching makes those two respective contracts now look reasonable; BJ's was the richest ever for a closer at the time but has been eclipsed by Cincy's recent deal that pays Francisco Cordero $46 million over four years plus a club option for a fifth. Guess they weren't scared off by his 6+ ERA on the road last year...

He notes that there's a "guarded optimism" in the Jays camp this year, and takes a similar tone to Buster Olney. IF key players are healthy and IF underperformers from '07 return to career norms (that's kind of tied to the first part, but still), this is a team that could give Boston and New York some serious competition. Even if all goes to plan, the offense won't be on the same level as those two, but it might not matter since the Jays might well have the best staff in the AL. Or it could all go pear-shaped and we could finish behind the Rays. Not bloody likely in my mind.

We sometimes forget what a fierce competitor the Beej is since he was absent for most of last year. This is exactly the sort of thing you'd like to hear everyone on the roster repeat for good measure:

“When I signed here, I didn’t do it with the idea that we’d finish in third every season,” Ryan said. “I don’t ever think about things like, ‘What if we were in another division?’ I want to win this one.”

Right on, brother.

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Shaun Marcum is the guy du jour as they say in France (pronounced: Fronze).

The Star and Sun hit us with pretty much the same stories. In brief, he's now fully recovered from the knee surgery that prematurely ended his breakout 2007. Dropped a few pounds and hit the gym in the offseason hoping it would give him more stamina as this season wears on. No comment on losing that bet on a Bruins-Lightening game to Ricciardi Jr.

Blair weighs in with a neat little piece on Curtis Thigpen, The Man Without a Position, which is really more of a look at the four up and coming catchers in the Jays system: Thigpen, Robinzon Diaz, Brian Jeroloman and J.P. Arenicibia. (Gibby says that Thigpen is indeed viewed as a catcher going forward even if he gets PT elsewhere during the spring.)

Blair writes:

All four of the Blue Jays' catching prospects have a different skill set, and watching the picture develop this year will be fascinating because, as general manager J.P. Ricciardi said, "I think all four of these guys will pan out, I just don't know if it will all be in Toronto. The timetable may be that somebody comes up here and locks up the job. What we're trying to do is get these guys ready for 2009 and 2010.

"Jeroloman might be the most complete guy we have and he'll be in Double-A this year," Ricciardi continued, referring to the Blue Jays' sixth-round pick of 2006, who performed the neat statistical feat of walking 85 times in 110 games, posting an on-base percentage of .421, which was .162 percentage points higher than his batting average.

"These guys all do different things: Arenicibia has power and throws well, Jeroloman has great plate discipline and catches very well and throws well. Diaz … I just keep thinking of Manny Sanguillen every time I see him. He's unconventional. He hits. He's not going to walk … but he hits. He's a little cruder than the rest, but his game plays and Thigpen is probably the best athlete out of all of them. They all bring something. It's just who's the best fit."

Blair seems to imply that Thigpen is going to find himself the odd man out.

MacLeod and Kelly both insinuate that AJ Burnett is less of man for spending time down in the beauty parlour having work done on his broken nail. Seriously guys, I wish you could be a little bit more confident in your own masculinity...

ELSEWHERE:

There were I few things I read this morning that left me a bit snippy.

The Mets have brought Daryl Strawberry, best known for his role in the greatest Simpsons episode of all time, back into the fold as a "big brother" to the younger players in the organization.

Mr. Burns: "Hey you, Strawberry! Hit a homerun!"

Straw: "Okaaaay, skip!"

Mr. Burns: [After moon shot flies out of the stadium.] "Haha, I told him to do that!"

Staw's troubles ran the gamut from drug addiction to tax evasion, but the fans, and especially his teammates, never turned their backs on him as the going went from bad to worse. Yes, it is a good thing he's got things under control know and also a positive step for the Mets to bring in someone who can "scare straight" some of their prospects who need it.

I just find the timing of the hire weird, since it seems like the sort of move they should have made to reign in former top prospect Lastings Milledge (traded to the Nats this offseason). Milledge has all the talent in the world to match his arrogance, disrespect and penchant for running his mouth. This is the kind of rough diamond you'd have wanted Straw to go to work on...

The New York Times is a venerable paper with a surprisingly good sports section (especially on Sundays during the baseball season), so this stream of consciousness piece from Murray Chass took me for a loop. Apparently the Yankees should've fired Joe Torre and hired Joe Girardi as his replacement after the 2006 season, rather than waiting a year. Oh, and they probably should've traded for Johan Santana (though I don't think anyone seriously believes the Twins were going to ship him to an AL team). I see... It's cool that that Yankees fans are getting a bit angsty, though.

The Bosox are expecting Bartolo Colon to be ready earlier than expected; he could get a spring training start in within a fortnight. Well, isn't that special!

In the "somebody had to do it file", the Reds have finally signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. He does two things very well: play CF and steal bases. He has a bit of homerun pop. His splits, however, are loopier than Rip Torn on strong Kool Aid: it seems like he either hits LHP or RHP, but never both in the same year. He's 28 and one would've expected a bit more interest especially in the Cowards', I mean, National, League. If he ever did all of the things he's shown he can do in the same season he could be a pretty solid little ballplayer. I certainly would not have raised the villagers to burn JP's house down had he offered the same deal a few weeks ago.

-- Johnny Was

Who is Buck Coats?

A proper bio on this lanky international man of mystery seems appropriate given some early spring training buzz and his recent arrival to the Jays organization. Some are calling him a dark horse candidate for the 25th roster spot. Those people are wrong, but hey, aren't we all at times?

Mop Up Duty really phoned in its Coats scouting report today, which inspired me to do some deeper research (cough, hitting the first three google links, cough). This is what I found.

Coats was originally drafted out of high school by the Cubs in the 18th round of the 2000 amateur draft, slowly climbed the ranks before his first cup of coffee in 2006, then was traded to the Reds organization at the end of last year because the Cubs just had too many players in the same mould. In his age 25 season he put up a nice looking .303/.363/.435 line in AAA, though it must be noted this came in the PCL, which has a reputation as an extreme hitter's league.

Since he's spent the bulk of his career in the Cubs organization, I thought I'd poke around Cubs sources first for some scouting reports. CubsHub.com did a pretty detailed look back in late 2006 from which I will now proceed to plagarize liberally.

The most alarming thing on Coats' stat sheet is his defense from three seasons as a shortstop in the low minors. This is incredible:

2001 - 51 errors in A ball in his age 21 season
2002 - 29 more at A+
2003 - 33 at AA

What in the HELL happened here? He's being now touted as a super utility player and these raw numbers might lead one to the impression that he fields worse than Russ Adams' grandma.

Well, CubsHub provides some explanation:

The Cubs took Buck Coats in the 18th round of the 2000 draft from Valdosta High School in Georgia where he was the school’s shortstop and one of the better hitting prospects in the state at the time. Scouts loved his speed in the field and on the basepaths, they also raved about his quick wrists at the plate. But the writing was on the wall when scouts basically called his defense ugly and that it’d be a miracle if he stayed at SS with his brick hands and poor throwing accuracy. While Coats’ power abilities have yet to develop into what the organization felt he was capable when drafting him, he’s displayed great doubles plus potential.

The best athlete on a high school baseball team almost always plays shortstop, or sometimes centrefield. Scouts basically knew that Coats should have been shifted to another position when he started playing pro ball, but for some reason he was allowed to have three atrocious seasons in the field before he was moved to the outfield. It was as obvious as a punch in the face, but the Cubs organization didn't make the necessary move. I reiterate, the Cubs organization.

Back to CubsHub. Apparently Coats transitioned well to the OF, takes good routes, has good range, and shows a strong arm. Unsurprisingly, his error numbers there are back down to the acceptable range.

Coats hasn't seen regular duty in the infield since 2005 and had no games there last year. He's played a handful of games at second and third in the minors, though any thoughts of him returning to short should be jettisoned with extreme prejudice. CubsHub really doesn't think he can play third in the bigs, but might get by at second.

If he does break with the Jays at some point in the future, I'd expect it to be as a 4th-5th OF who only sees time in the infield under extreme circumstances. There's nothing wrong with that, but we shouldn't get the idea that he's as versatile as, say, Marco Scutaro.

On the offensive side, Coats has one asset that's lacking from our bench: base-stealing speed. In 2007 he went 18 for 20, 17 for 21 in '06, 17 for 22 in '05, and 27 of 36 in'04 . That kind of success--especially last year's--is close to the acceptable range of success rates. In the lower minors he went "Buck" Wild (haha?), stealing a high of 32 bases in '03, but his percentage wasn't as good. That's typical of younger players in the lower levels, where coaches are more aggressive with their runners. The Mid-West League Guide lists him as a plus baserunner during both of his seasons with the Lansing Lugnuts (then a Cubs affiliate).

As a hitter, Coats isn't going to pull your hair back. He put up near identical lines in A+, AA and his first kick in AAA in the .280/.340/.390 neighbourhood. That points to a very fringy major league career as 4th OF/pinch runner if he ever does stick.

Nevertheless, as I mentioned earlier Coats put up a pretty solid line of .303/.363/.435 last year in his second go at AAA. As noted, he played in the hitter friendly PCL (as he did most of the year prior). Of interest is the fact that he added .20 of average and .60 points of SLG playing in the same league. Hitter's league or no, Coats definitely improved at the dish.

He also put up double digits for homeruns for the first time in his career and cut his K total to the lowest level since his A ball season in 2002. He's never going to put up impressive extra-base hit numbers, but does have gap power and plus speed. If he hasn't peaked yet, he's probably now playing as well as he can ever hope to.

JP acquired Coats in December via a trade with Reds for a some unremarkable minor league pitching, likely viewing him as a super util Marco Scutaro-esque bench player of the future. He may well end up fitting that bill in 2009 (or 2010 after Scooter has departed), but I just don't see even the remotest of chances of him going North as the 25th man this spring.

Since his infield defense leaves something to be desired at present, it would make no sense to carry a player who'd effectively be a 6th OF/pinch runner with a weak bat while Adam Lind--a legitimate hitting prospect with average D--was wasting his hours playing solitaire down in Syracuse. That said, Coats already does most of the things even the sunniest of Russ Adams optimists could hope for at this point in the career of JP's worst draft pick ever.

But, should Coats prove himself capable of playing an adequate second and third in addition to the OF at AAA this year, he may yet have a future with the club. In a perfect world where beer was free and the women exceedingly chesty, you might want to hope to see him develop into a Ryan Freel-type player. (Please hold your tomatoes until you compare their minor league numbers!)

This is reality, however. Before you go celebrating his next homerun by buying yourself a Buck Coats #87 jersey, just remember other luminaries who tore it up in spring trainings past. Guys like Gabe Gross...

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Are you expressing shock that AJ Burnett is the first Jay to suffer an injury this year? If so, why?

Burnett tore the nail on his right index finger while "closing" (hrm, euphemism for "slamming during a temper tantrum"?) a car door prior to his arrival at Dunedin. Well, at least he didn't get his junk caught in his zipper, because that's really, really painful. I know because I did it once when I was 4.

This little incident means no curve balls for two weeks, when the nail is expected to have grown back. This shouldn't be a big deal, and if anything, it'll give him time to work on his change, which he might want to work in more often this year (to keep his arm from exploding as it has the last two seasons). Moving along...

I don't know if any of you have heard, but David Eckstein is a scrappy little player with a big heart. Shhhhhsh! Don't tell anybody!

Wilner notes that AJ is a bit testy about the car door thing, Reed is running as well as we was in '06, Overbay's been scorching the ball like it's '06, and he'll be live blogging today's game with the Tribe. Cheers, biggie!

ELSEWHERE:

Reds 1B Joey Votto has nothing but a 38-year-old Scott "homerun" Hatterberg standing between him and everyday duties in Cincy. The Etobicoke native had a blistering September callup last year (.321/.260/548 in 84 ABs) and projects to be a .270+, 25 HR hitter who swipes the odd bag.

Hatterberg is a former Bosox catcher, as if you needed any further reason to cheer against him.

Young stars Cole Hamels and Prince Fielder are both unhappy with what arbitration has yielded for them. Sorry, fellas, but the six years of indentured servitude at the beginning of a player's ML career are all that keeps the sport from going off the rails like a crazy train.

Part of the problem is no doubt the system where massive, multi-million dollar draft bonuses (such as $2 million in Hamels' case) are handed out to first round picks, followed by a less than $400,000 in salary for their first full year in the majors. They're bound to get discombobulated with the massive sum followed by a relative pittance. Onwards and upwards, right? Well, not so fast. Still, it seems like kids these days have all the patience of a 6-year-old.

Fielder (who got a $2.4 million bonus) really does come off as a petulant little brat, though. And how could you feud with a loveable face like this?

-- Johnny Was

Wither Gibby?

Over at The Tao of Stieb, they make note of having heard Blair comment on Fan 590 that, in his opinion, Gibbons won't make it past mid-May. His reasoning for that is that the only way Gibbons can survive is if the Jays are successful right out of the box, paraphrasing "one or two games under .500 isn't going to cut it."

Well, before Gibbons haters rejoice and Gibby starts updating the resume, let me cast a dissenting vote. No, I'm not in disagreement with the premise that a .500ish team puts his job in danger, rather, I'm gonna go on record and say the Jays will bust out like gangbusters and be sporting one of the best records in baseball by the time we see our first National League opponent.

Consider the schedule.

The Jays open with six games against the Yanks and Red Sox (whom the virtually always play their best ball against) - three in NY and three at home. Consider the pitching matchups:

Halladay v. Wang
Burnett v. Petitte (the Jays own lefties as we all know)
Marcum v. Mussina (I'm assuming Dusty for the home opened but if he's here so much the worse for the Yanks)

McGowan v. Wakefield (BwaHAHA!)
Halladay v.Lester (another lefty)
Janssen v. Beckett

Four wins there? five?

Then after an off day, sixteen of the next twenty are against non-contenders. True, teams like Tampa Bay and Kansas City are not exactly pansies this year but still, let me run down some tentative pitching projections to give you an idea of why I'm optimistic:

Burnett v. Blanton
McGowan v. Gaudin
Halladay v. Dinardo
Marcum v. Padilla
Janssen v. ?Gabbard?
Burnett v. Jennings
McGowan v. Trachsel
Halladay v. Olsen
Marcum v. Padilla
Janssen v. Gabbard
Burnett v. Rogers
McGowan v. Bonderman
Halladay v. Willis
Marcum v. Robertson
Janssen v. Kazmir
Burnett v. Sheilds
McGowan v. Garza
Halladay v. Tomko
Marcum v. ?Hudson?
Janssen v. Meche

Lefties in italics. Notice almost half of those 20 games are vs. LHP, also notice that about a third of them are against pretty awful pitchers. If the Jays rotation pitches up to their abilities, and the hitting is anything other than ice cold, they could easily win 3/4 of those games. I would not be shocked at all if the Jays have 20 wins under there belts by the time they visit Boston in late April. I won't go so far as to make a concrete prediction on that, but I think it's FAR more likely than the struggle to stay around .500 that we have become accustomed to.

I know that the cliche is that Spring is the season of optimism (maybe someone should tell Jeff Blair) and perhaps I am guilty of an over-indulgence, but I simply don't see this team having any truck with the .500 mark this season. I enjoy Blair's work in general, and agree that IF they Jays so struggled as he suggests, Gibbons can't survive that - rightly so - but I simply don't agree that such struggles are on the horizon.

~WillRain

City TV Cavalcade of Excellence in Sports Broadcasting

Forget the cautious enthusiasm of more responsible members of the local media and commentators like ESPN's Buster Olney. CityTV says we's gonna beat them Yankees and Red Saaacks this year and git into the playoffs! Yeeeeeeehooooooo!

After watching the 3-hour Jays ticket infomercial/game this afternoon, I've got a new goal to strive for in life: becoming a fat, old, upper middle class season ticket holder who knows little to nothing about the sport despite watching 81 home games every year and sounds completely vapid when a reporter sticks a mic in my face and asks a rhetorical question.

We knew it was going to be bad, but just how bad was left to be seen. If you'd like a running commentary on this glorified OHL broadcast from Rogers community TV, go here. Me, I would like to cut them some slack because a) it was just an early spring training game and b) it was their first kick at the can, but they really dropped the ball on some of the basics. Such as:

* Cutting away from half an inning of play (such as the top of the ninth...) for a fluff colour piece...

* Asking players groan-inducing questions like "would you rather wake up with no toes or no hair?" Well, I'd look silly with no hair, so I'm gonna have to say "no toes." Right. This isn't going to help make the shier players more media accessible

* Gord Martineau's "Yessiree Bob. [Pause]. Nice." homerun call...

* Generally not knowing what the fuck is going on, who's at bat, what the count is, etc., is kind of well...

* If City TV broadcasts are to be run out of the Jays ticketing department, they simply cannot be allowed to do regular season games. Ever. Just no, it crosses the line.

Some further thoughts of a random nature:

* Without a hat, BJ Ryan looks like a slick Miami nightclub owner. Who'd a thought?

* Travis Snider, who singled to the opposite field in his lone AB, looks like he's going to be a Destroyer of Worlds.

* The Russ Adams Experiment should be rapidly drawing to a close. He can't field any position, or hit for that matter, and he's 28 years old. Cut bait. Stringy Buck Coats (who homered and stole a base) is two years younger, has plus speed, good base-stealing skills, plays 5 positions (though he shouldn't ever play SS in the bigs), and has a bat that's as good as Rusty's and probably getting better (.303/.363/.435 line in AAA in '07). I'm not saying he's going to be Ryan Freel, but he's on a similar trajectory. Here's your 25th man for 2009.

* The results of our Shannon Stewart poll were inconclusive. We need more readers/votes, I guess. Tell your friends! And thanks for participating.

-- Johnny Was

Making his case

No real news to report, other than the fact that the Jays offense has been non-existant to date. Stewart seems to be just as ineffective at the plate as Johnson, although Johnson is hitting 250, which probably puts him among the team leaders in BA at this point...

Southpaw favourite for the 5th spot, Casey Janssen put on a show last night. 2 IP, 2 H, 2 K, 0 BB. Also, when I was listening on the radio Janssen's ability to hold the runner came in handy. He's always had a terrific pickoff move, and he's extremely quick to the plate. On an attempted hit and run, the batter missed the pitch, and Ruggiano was thrown out easily by Barajas. It's the little things like this that make him so much more valuable in a starting role.

McGowan also had a solid outing, going 2 IP, allowing 2 hits but no K or BB. Beyond that, the most important part is both Dusty & Janssen threw a ton of strikes.

Spring Training game is on CITY TV @ 12:30 I believe, so I expect that all 3 of you who read this (the three being myself, will & johnny, of course :p) to watch it, and enjoy it.

Oh right, sorry Will :(.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Joe Carter, you complete me...

It was a pretty good afternoon at the Frozen Pond yesterday afternoon because not only did we procure an autographed bat, but also got a few words and a firm handshake in. As a regular on the autograph circuit, that's the best you can hope for and pretty much what makes it all worth the bother.

I had plenty of time to think over what I'd say to one one of my childhood heroes, but couldn't really settle on anything that felt right before the lineup started moving. "You are cool!" No... "Your homerun off Mitch Williams was cool!" Noooooo... "Do you like stuff?" Golden!

When I got to the head of the line Joe saved me the trouble of saying something stupid by reading my t-shirt in a semi-questioning tone, "The Hold Steady?" To which I replied (stupidly), "do you know them?" because for one second I though it might be possible that a greying 48-year-old Joe Carter has indie cred and listens to the same bands as I do... Stupid! In any event, he still obliged me with a photo of the two of us together, smiling widely, with my arm draped around his shoulder. Solid! That's going on t-shirts, coffee mugs, and perhaps even a calender.

Being a bit older and wiser than I was in 1993, would I hack on a modern day Joe Carter who doesn't walk, plays poor defense, and puts up put up empty 100 RBI seasons? Even if he was a great guy on and off the field?

Yes, of course I would, and as I was writing one name popped into my head: Tony Batista. Had he started his career a decade earlier (before players were pilloried for low OBPs, coincidentally towards the end of Carter's career), I think the casual fan would be mentioning him as one of the top 20 power-hitting third basemen of all time. But he didn't, and them's the breaks. Joe Carter had the good fortune of playing in a time when OBP and OPS didn't exist in the minds of coaches and managers, much less the casual fan, so he retires reputation largely intact.

Still, though, the glory days were a simpler, if not better, time. It was all about perceptions, what we thought we saw in players. Dingers, wins, batting average and ERA: those were the standards. And since I grew up in that era, noone can ever take the memory of that World Series-winning homerun away from me, flawed as a player Joe Carter might have been.

Thanks, Joe!

ELSEWHERE:

I'm not ashamed to admit that I like to keep tabs on the Canucks in the MLB, and not just hometown heroes like Adam Stern. Shawn Hill, a 27-year-old Nationals starter from Mississagua, is one dude I check in on from time to time. In parts of three seasons, Hill has shown ace-level talent (for the Nationals, mind) with a power arm and plus sinker, but injuries have always held him back from fulfilling his potential. Quelle surprise! to note that a sore right forearm is now troubling him and his prospects of being ready for Opening Day are unlikely.

Too bad, secreted away in the relative obscurity of DC, Jays fans here might've looked forward to signing this solid mid-backend rotation guy on a hometown discount around 2010 or so... Just get healthy, m'kay?

Some people want to portray the Yankees as underdogs. Sorry, but any team that can piss away collossal sums of money year in year out will never be an underdog, which by my definition is a plucky club that deserves our admiration and support. Fuuuuuuuuck you guys, WE'RE the underdogs!

Count Cathal Kelly and some rando guy from the Canadian press amongst those developing serious man crushes on Dustin McGowan. Seriously guys, no one is going to accuse you of being quick off the draw.

McGowan had me on June 24, 2007 when he took a no hitter into the ninth against the Rockies in an interleague game at the Rogers Centre. After some shaky outings in May, then some solid ones in June, Mr. Burns looked Nolan Ryan-dominant against one of the best offenses in the National League. He even made Todd Helton look silly! More important than this Sunday filler from a local journo is the McGowan love shown by Buster Olney, as Will noted the other day. Seriously, folks, he's already one of the best starters in the AL...

The lads at DJF aren't the only lushes in town...

Wilner dealt with more of usual in his first preseason Jays Talk. Just read this, please, Zaun-haters, and read it to the end of the paragraph because this is essentially what the level-headed have to repeat over and over and over again. Here's Wilner's response to someone who wanted to trade Rios to the Angels for a catcher and a pitching prospect:

I think, and a lot of fans seem to feel this way, that the overriding reason that caller wanted to make that trade was because he feels the Blue Jays are desperate to improve the catching position. I don’t see it. Gregg Zaun may not be a superstar, but he’s at the top of the middle of the pack of American League backstops. I’d rather have Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada and maybe Ivan Rodriguez because of the arm, but those are the only catchers in the league who are clearly much better than Zaun. In a few years, I might prefer to have Mike Napoli, Dioner Navarro, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Kurt Suzuki, but in a few years I might prefer Robinzon Diaz to any of them. Please, folks, lay off Zaun. He’s fine.

Alright, I'm gonna bang on the Jays-Reds game on Citytv. DJF is going to do a live blog of the game this afternoon as they "get progressively drunk and surly". Check it out if that's your scene.

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Just a quickie here because I'm off out the door to go get Joe Carter's autograph at the Frozen Pond. Woohoo! Photos later...

What's the significance to the baseball cards Doc has stuck onto his locker?

Wilner thinks Russ Adams is done. A Util guy who can't play no defense? Not a great idea...

Jeff Blair doesn't like boobs.

ELSEWHERE:

What was Manny Ramirez doing instead of meeting the President at the White House with the rest of his team? Meditating? Seriously... and he claims to be reading books? Shine on you crazy diamond.

Hank "Hill" Steinbrenner is accusing ESPN of pro-Red Sox bias, which is pretty much par for the course for this scoundrel. Yanks is da best brand! Yankeems have der best prrrrospects! Snarl, snarf, bleech! What would George Costanza make of all this?

-- Johnny Was