The Top 40 List

Overblown? Yup.

Excessive? Sure.

Unnecessary? Weeeeeeelllll....

What's more necessary to this winter of austerity then overdosing ourselves on prospect porn....even if they maybe aren't all actual prospects?

Let me be perfectly clear - no team EVER had 40 legitimate prospects in their system. What this really is could be more accurately described as about 20 "prospects" and another 20 interesting minor leaguers who might become prospects.

(Plus as a bonus I'll throw in another 10 names to know just for the heck of it)

The individual ranking isn't that important so much as the area of the list they are in. As a general rule of thumb, each ranking should be read with an implied +/-2 places.

I normally don't do the backwards list but I think I will this time just for variety's sake.
Each player is listed with his position and age as of May 2010

40. Kyle Ginley (RHP/23) - Would love to see him healthy one year to see if he's got a future;
39. Antonio Jimminez (C/20) - Personally, I'm skeptical the bat will come around;
38. Ryan Schimpf (2B/22) - ceiling is maybe a Ryan Freel, or Craig Counsell type, but a lot more likely a AAA journeyman;
37. Mike McDade (1B/21) - Hard to see someone this size making it but he does have some pop;
36. Yan Gomes (C/22) - Not sure what I think of this guy yet;
35. Ryan Goins (ss/22) - like Schempf and Gomes, it's really a bit early to say;
34. Trystan Magnuson (RP/24) - This is one of those lower ceiling, but more likely to reach it guys;
33. Robert Sobolewski (3B/23) - this is the last year the draft class praise will carry him, time to impress;
32. Kenny Rodriguez (SP/25) - will either move up next year or be dropped altogether;
31. Brian Jeroloman (C/25) - he's not supposed to be a hitter but there is a minimum requirement;

30. Sean Ochinko (C-1B/22) - Impressive start, sample size caution applies, sticking behind the plate would increase his value;
29. Jose Vargas (LHP/19) - A lot of promise, can't wait to see him in full-season ball;
28. KC Hobson (1B/19) - This is one of the players I'll be watching really closely this year;
27. Luis Perez (LHP/25) - I'm a skeptic on this one, but I'll respect the reports of others;
26. Andrew Liebel (RHP/24) - Ditto.
25. Robert Ray (RHP/26) - if his health holds up, a steady unspectacular swing man;
24. John Tolisano (2B/21) - He has his fans, but I think he needs to step up;
23. Kevin Aherns (3B/21) - I hate to rank this guy so low but he's just showing nothing so far;
22. Adam Loewen (OF/26) - I really wanted to put him in the Top 20, I still believe, but others are more certain at this point;
21. Darin Mastorianni (CF/24) - a variation on the Reed Johnson model probably, should be a fan fave if he makes it;

20. Gustavo Perrie (SS/18) - Ranking still mostly based on praise from scouts, but have to respect the upside;

19. Danny Farquhar (RHRP/23) - Can't really ask for much more, but I can't really rank a true reliever much higher than the upper teens either;

18. Tim Collins (LHRP/20) - Ditto. but people will love this guy if he makes it;

17. Scott Campbell (2B/25) - give him a mulligan on 2009, but please lets stop the farce that he's going to be a 3B in the majors;

16. Brad Emaus (2B/24) - I'm a believer in this guy. He's Probably not a future all-star but I think he'll contribute a good bit in the majors;

15. Brian Dopirak (1B-DH/26) - I'm trying to bridge the gap between reading the numbers and the teams apparent lack of faith in him. It's odd that no one with the team gives him the praise he seems to have coming;

14. Robert Bell (RHSP/24) - I have to respect him until he falters;

13. Jake Marisnick (CF/19) - Maybe I'm a sucker but I buy into the "first round talent" praise he received;

12. Tyler Pastornicky (SS/20) - not as high on him as some others are but I can see him riding his skills to the majors;

11. Eric Thames (LF/23) - Can his body hold together? Maybe a Shannon Stewart (or more) if it does;

10. Johermyn Chavez (RF/21) - development is back on track, fairly high ceiling but one of those guys who has maybe less certainty about reaching it;

9. Justin Jackson (SS/21) - call me a fool, I still believe. If he goes in with a healthy body next year and flops then maybe I'll be more skeptical;

8. Carlos Perez (C/19) - difficult to evaluate at such a low level but I'll buy in for now;

7. David Cooper (1B-DH/23) - more a function of the shallow pool of premium guys in the system than anything else that he's this high. I think this system has a good pool of moderate talent but few studs. That leaves a guy like Cooper higher than he'd be in many systems;

6. Brad Mills (LHSP/25) - Another guy who gets a pass on 2009, this is a big season for him to succeed at the higher levels;

5. JP Arencibia (C/24) - The team is still quite high on him, and the more sophisticated stats are kinder to him than the simple ones are in evaluating his 2009 - but he HAS to figure out how to get a walk once in a while;

4. Mosies Seirra (RF/21) - the early word is that BA thought he was "a long way from being the Jays best prospect" but I, and a lot of others, don't understand why he shouldn't be near the top;

3. Chad Jenkins (RHSP/22) - it is my custom to default the top draft pick into the top 10 prospects, but quite apart from that, I like what I hear about Jenkins;

2. Zach Stewart (RHSP/23) - Only reservation I have is the small remaining doubt about whether he'll be a reliever (or more specifically, a reliever who doesn't close). As a starter or a top-shelf closer, he could arguably be #1;

1. Henderson Alverez (RHSP/20) - there's some risk in ranking the guy who's further away at the very top but his ratios REALLY impresses me.

I bolded the age on those players 21 and under because a player that young highly ranked is usually a potentially special guy, and one that young that's of a lower rank perhaps deserves a bit more patience than his older peers.

Here's another 10 players that might sneak onto the list next year: Chuck Huggins, Daniel Webb, Balbino Fyenmayor, Egan Smith, Joel Cerrano, Deviy Estrada, Reider Gonzalez, Jon Talley, Marcus Brisker, Kenny Wilson.

Since the Jays are supposedly looking ahead to contending in a few years, I'll steal a gmmick from BA and guess at what the 2013 team might look like (assuming no acquisitions which is a silly assumption):

C - Arencibia, 1B - Lind, 2B - Emaus, SS - Jackson (rookie), 3B - Hill, LF - Wells, CF - Marisnick (rookie), RF - Seirra, DH - Snider

SP - Romero/Jenkins/Zep/Cecil/Alverez (rookie)
(basically, five guys who are all about the same quality at this point, which is to say roughly average #2 or very good #3 quality - Kind of like the Rays current group)

CP - Stewart (good enough to start but no room)
Bullpen - Roenicke, Carlson, Ray, Mills, Bell, Farquhar

Of course, that doesn't count whoever we get for Halladay or in any other trade, or any impressive fast mover we might draft next year.

So, there ya go. I understand why our system is not highly rated, because there's not that much that grades out as premium at the moment. But there are some interesting players here too, in my opinion.

Dear Mr. Gammons: WTF?????

I hardly ever do these hit and run posts but this demanded I comment and Twitter just doesn't allow enough characters to do it justice.

Reading MLBTR and came across a post highlighting several comments from the venerated Peter Gammons on WEEI. This is the one that left me agog:

I don’t think they go Halladay because I think it would be a disaster to give up Buccholz and Kelly and then try to pay a guy with his medical history $18 million a year through the age of 38.

Medical History?

MEDICAL HISTORY????!!?!!?!

ROY Halladay? the guy who plays for the Blue Jays, THAT Roy Halladay?

Lets review boys and girls.

Halladay has missed significant time with a throwing arm issue exactly ONE year in his career.

That was 2004.

In the five years since, he has a leg broken by a line drive in 2005, and he averaged 233 innings a year in the 4 years since.

THIS is a "medical history"?

Or is Gammons thinking the man's going to have chronic broken legs? Maybe he's afraid ANOTHER appendix will have to come out?

This is a guy who's had 30 or more starts in six of the last eight seasons (and one of the two he didn't was the broken leg in 2005) and has four consecutive seasons of 220 or more innings pitched.

Don't get me wrong - if Gammons wants to say "you don't guarantee ANY pitcher big money until he's 38" that's a legitimate point of view. but questioning Doc's medical history is like questioning the Yanks for being cheapskates.

Insert double facepalm here.


***

On a totally unrelated note - Rob Neyer referenced in his blog this article regarding a case the NFL has taken to the Supreme Court which, the author argues, will revolutionize the sports labor landscape if the league wins.

I am not expert enough in the sports labor scene to attempt to debate whether or not Munson is correct in his conclusions but it seems to me that if he is, laws can be passed to remedy the implications but, all that aside, here's the quote that caught my eye:

In a single sentence on Page 14 of their argument in the brief, the owners describe their idea of their league and its role in the economy: "A sports league produces a single entertainment product, a structured series of athletic competitions leading to a championship, that no member club could produce on its own and it competes as a unit against other entertainment producers."

Instead of 32 teams competing for coaches, players, sponsors and fans, the NFL is, in the owners' dream world, a single producer of a "product" that competes with television, movies and concerts.

Regardless of the implications for the labor unions that might ultimately be regretable, I would argue that the owners claim here is correct. Later in the peice Munson says, in so many words "Tell that to Al Davis" but the fact remains, the Oakland Raiders can't have a footbal game by themselves.

I bring this up here because I have long argued that the fundamental logic behind profit sharing in the Major Leagues is flawed because it ignores the principle described above. the Red Sox compete with the Yankees for a chamionship, true enough. but the Red Sox do NOT compete with the Yankees for profit. They compete with other entertainment venues in Boston which are unrelated to baseball.

To say that the Red Sox and Yankees are business competitors is the same as saying the McDonalds on Main Street is a competitor with the McDonalds on Elm Street. That's obvious nonsense. McDonalds is competing with Burger King and Wendy's and verious other unrelated companies.

Now, is this an inconvenient truth for player unions or others who'd like to challenge sports leagues on anti-trust grounds? Possibly. If so, too damned bad. Reality is what it is, if the current law doesn't address the reality then go to Congress and try to get some new ones. don't blind yourself to an obvious truth just because you want to use anti-trust laws as a weapon to increase your economic power and leverage.

Farm Report 2009: The Relievers

Finishing up on the position by position look at the Jays' farm system, I give you the relief pitchers - with two qualifiers:
A. ANY failed starter at the upper levels is a potential relief prospect. Even guys who have started in the majors (Ray, Mills, even Richmond) who are not necessarily "failures" but who are squeezed out of the major league rotation are potentially valuable major league relievers.
B. I'm going with guys who were in the system last year. I'll mention the Rule 5 pick since he's a reliever but I haven't had time to assess how he fits into the rankings if at all.

1. Tim Collins: 8 - 29 - 1989 / 5'7", 155 / Signed as undrafted free agent

By now the descriptions of Collins and the allusions to his lack of size are taking on both a bit of a mythical nature and, at the same time, becoming a bit redundant. I mean how many times can a writer think he's being clever calling the lefty "The Little Giant" as I did last year or whatever?

What does NOT get old is watching Collins dominate his older and bigger opponents. At Dunedin he struck out 13.8 batters per 9, while holding opponents to a .199 BA and giving up only 2 homers. In a brief (nine appearances) look at AA in late August Collins took a bit to adjust and posted an uncharacteristically high ERA (5.68) but beyond the obvious sample size caveat one must also point out that an undrafted guy even ARRIVING at AA while still 19 years old is remarkable.
It's also fun to notice that in his next to last appearance for new Hampshire, he recorded eight outs - seven of them via the strikeout.

There's still some question how well his stuff will play against higher level competition, but how can you NOT be a huge fan of this guy?

2. Danny Farquhar: 2 - 17 - 1987 / 5'10", 170 / 10th round, 2008

Farquhar is, himself, not a huge guy, but the 22 year old RHP is certainly producing big results. After owning the FSL for most of the first two months of the season (0.53 ERA, .164 BAA) Farquhar was promoted to AA and barely missed a step. In fact, from the time of his promotion until August 22, Farquhar had an ERA of 1.47 before running out of gas a bit in the last two weeks of the season (6 earned runs in nine innings over that stretch). Overall, his AA opponents batting average was only .193 and he averaged a K per inning. All that said, he is yet a bit wild but it's hard to complain given the results.

Farquhar is a fairly unique guy who throws equally well from a number of different arm angles while still being able to confuse the hitter as to which pitch is coming. that deception no doubt has contributed to his success so far and his ability to keep that up will play a big role in how well he does at higher levels. The Jays are pretty deep in bullpen options right now, but it's not inconceivable Farquhar could force his way into the major league pitcher by late summer, and certainly he's likely to be in the mix a year from now.

3. Trystan Magnuson: 6 - 6- 1985 / 6'8", 210 / 1st round (supplemental) 2007 draft

How cool would it be to stand Collins next to this guy in the team photo, eh? The huge RHP would automatically make you think "power stuff" but, as often happens with the taller guys - not so much. Magnuson is always going to have to overcome skepticism. the only really glowing report I remember from the 2007 draft concerning this guy was from Kieth law who really praised the pick, most others called it a "signability" move. He was an old draftee who'd just turned 22 then, and after the Jays wasted a season trying to convert him to a starter, he's now even further behind the age curve for his level (arriving in AA after his 24th birthday).

Still, he's not entirely without results. He posted a 2.77 ERA in Dunedin and didn't give up a run in five AA appearance. On the other side of the discussion, his K rate is not as high as it should be for a truly gifted reliever in the low-to-mid minors, and (as often happens with really tall guys) he has to be on guard against mechanical issues leading to too many walks (although his BB rate this year was ok, it just looks bad because his K rate should be higher).

My guess is that this guy isn't going to be an impact guy, but he might well have a few years as a serviceable middle reliever in the mold of someone like one time Jays "prospect" Gary Glover.

4. Kyle Ginley: 9 - 1 - 1986 / 6'2", 210 / 17th round, 2006 draft

Ginley is one of THOSE guys. The guy with the tantalizing arm who can never stay on the field long enough for you to get a solid idea of what he can do with it. In 2008, Ginley got 23 starts around a couple of injuries. As a 21 year old, he started the year at Lansing and dominated for six starts. He had a 6:1 K:BB ratio and gave up only one homer in his six starts, posting a 1.24 ERA (albeit with a not-so-pretty BAA of .280). Upon being promoted to Dunedin, he had 16 starts where none of his stats impressed, but he spent time on the DL more than once so it was difficult to figure exactly how much if his difficulties were due to injury.

So 2009 should have been a big year in terms of finding an answer to that question, right? Right. Problem is he only pitched 7.1 innings in 2009. So...ya know...unanswered questions still. Now, it's possible the Jays will keep trying to get him out there as a starter, if for no other reason than to build up the innings of work he gets in. But with his growing injury history, a switch to the 'pen seems like a possibility so I'm taking a leap of faith and listing him here.

Other names to pay some attention to:
Zech Zinicola - Drafted from the Nationals in the Rule 5 draft today. Put up pretty ugly numbers over there but Jays assistant GM Dana Brown (hired from Washington) thinks well of him;
Josh Roenicke - technically not a prospect and part of the Scott Rolen deal, has closer stuff and makeup, but might get squeezed off opening day roster depending on impending events;
Reider Gonzalez - has been a starter to this point, but he's another little guy (5'9") in a very deep field of starter prospects so I'm thinking if he makes the majors for the Jays it will be in relief;
Zach Dials - I'm not high on this guy but he racked up a lot of saves in 2008 and some observers mention his name as a fringy prospect.

Within the next week I'll publish my Top 40 list and include a link in the sidebar, then I'll see where things go from there.

Farm Report 2009: The Starting Pitchers

I need to be a bit faster about wrapping these up. The Baseball America Top 10 list for the Blue Jays comes out December 14 and I'd like to have all the positional lists done before that time. Actually, in an ideal world my Top 40 list would have gone up before then but the delays associated with the host switch might have killed that chance.

In any case, here's my ranking of the Jays' SP prospects.

(see the 2008 list here)

1. Henderson Alverez: 4 - 18 - 1990 / 6'0", 190 / Free agent signing out of Venezuela

It's hard to overstate the team's opinion of the 19 year old right hander. Alex Anthopoulos has already referred to him as "maybe our #1 prospect" and he's not being hyperbolic when he says that. Alverez came into the season with outstanding ability to get the ball over the plate (1.17 BB per 9IP in 2008 in the GCL) and this year, in Lo-A Lansing, he added the ability to miss bats along the way. His ERA dropped from 5.63 to 3.47, his BAA dropped from .310 to .251 and if that wasn't enough, he dropped from 3 HR allowed in 46.1 IP in 2008 to ONE homer allowed in 124.1 IP in 2009. On top of that, his K rate improved as the season wore on. there's no facet of his game that should give us pause.

While the Jays are expressing new found caution when it comes to rushing prospects, Alverez is clearly ready for Dunedin and barring a setback Alverez could be knocking on the door by 2013 if not before.

2. Zach Stewart: 9 - 28 - 1986 / 6'2", 205 / 3rd round, 2008 draft

The prize return from July's Scott Rolen trade and, some argue, the guy who instantly became the Jays top prospect, Stewart has done nothing but impress during his brief pro career. The catch is, Stewart's inning ceiling is still relatively low, which seems to cause some confusion among commentators regarding his future role in the majors. count me as one who firmly believes the Jays will develop Stewart as a starter.

Stewart was used primarily as a reliever in college given that he featured a dominating fastball and a solid slider and little else. Some questioned the Reds' selection of a college reliever with ordinary stats in the third round but scouts were impressed with his physical ability. The problem is that being used in relief limited the innings he's accumulated in a given season. In 2008, between Texas Tech and the Reds minor league system, he pitched a mere 70 innings. At that point, there were questions about his control as he'd walked 35 hitters in those 70 innings.

In 2009, Stewart opened the season in the Sarasota (Hi-A) rotation where he posted seven dominating starts, featuring not only solid hit, HR and K rates, but greatly improved control (8 walks in 42.1 IP). The Reds promoted him to AA where he got another seven starts and continued to impress. The Reds then were forced to exercise caution lest Stewart accumulate too many innings. He was promoted to AAA and shifted to the bullpen where he accumulated another 12.1 innings before the trade. In other words, a man who came into the season with a ceiling of 100 IP at most, came to the Jays with 91 of those already in the bank. Thus the Jays wisely chose to leave Stewart in the bullpen to finish out the year.

Across the four team he pitched for in 2009, Stewart posted a 3:1 k:BB ratio in 105 IP and gave up only three homers. Look for the 23 year old righty to be a mainstay in the Las Vegas rotation in 2010. however, don't expect him to be forced into the majors as a starter. He'll be capped at roughly 140 innings this year and its unlikely the Jays will try to manage his innings in the majors. To say nothing of starting his service time clock when they have so many other options. With a solid season he could be a candidate for a major league job in 2011, however. All that said, the Jays have so much upper level SP depth that it isn't inconceivable he might end up as a closer candidate at some point.

3. Chad Jenkins: 12 -22 - 1987 / 6'4", 225 / 1st round, 2009 draft

Jenkins is approaching his 22nd birthday and, thanks to protracted contract negotiations, he has yet to give us any professional innings upon which to remark. Pitching at Kennesaw State in 2009, Jenkins posted 98 Ks and only 15 walks in 92 innings pitched, all as a starter. Jenkins is a highly intelligent and physically gifted pitcher who some scouts thought was very close to being major league ready on draft day. One report suggested he could hold his on in the majors by the middle of 2010.

Jenkins features two plus fastballs - a two-seamer and a four-seamer - and major league quality pitches in his slider and his change up. He has the build of a workhorse type pitcher and room for more improvement in his already considerable skills. the caveat of course is that the level of competition he's faced to this point has been questionable. Jenkins could start his pro career as high as Dunedin and move as fast as his results merit. If things go well, one might anticipate the Jays having a top-rated starter prospect knocking on the door of the majors in each of 2011, 2012, and 2013.

4. Brad Mills: 3 - 5 - 1985 / 5'11", 185 / 4th round, 2007 draft

Funny thing about Mills, he was the third ranked starter on my list last year, and both the starters ranked ahead of him lost their rookie status in 2009 and he's ranked 4th this year. It's not so much for lack of performance on his part, albeit he had a bit of a lost season, but the fact that the three mentioned above simply have a higher ceiling than Mills.

Last spring the reportage on the Jays training camp featured many stories about how the team was very impressed with Mills' make-up and intelligence. while he's a player of back-of-the rotation tools, he gets the most out of his abilities and is a smart competitor. The circumstances of the spring competition left Mills on his way to AAA Las Vegas and Ricky Romero coming from the back of the pack to break camp with the major league squad. April saw Mills, who had entered the season with less than 33 innings pitched above A ball, struggle with his control and have serious difficulty striking out batters. The thinking was beginning to grow that he would perhaps be well served to return to AA. But he turned those numbers around in May and June (55 Ks in 55.1 IP) to the extent that he got a call from the injury plagued major league club in mid-June.

That's where things really went off the rails for Mills. The young lefty got knocked around in two starts for the Jays and was promptly shipped back to the 51's where he got all of one more start (an impressive one) before succumbing to an injury that would cost him the rest of the season. I've just wasted the last hour trying to confirm WHAT was injured, with no luck. I THINK it was his back, but I'm uncertain. At one point it was announced he was heading to the AFL then that was changed. I've heard nothing to suggest that Mills will not be ready to throw in the spring but the landscape has changed radically.The major challenge for Mills, from a scouting perspective, is keeping the ball down and avoiding the long ball. From an organization point of view, it's something else altogether.

The emergence of Romero, Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski in 2009, along with the recovery or potential recovery of Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch, creates an intimidating depth chart above him, and the approach of the three righties listed above creates a pretty narrow window for the 24 year old lefty to make his mark.

5. Robert Bell: 8 - 26 - 1985 / 6'3", 190 / 18th round, 2008 draft

I think I can confidently say that I've got Bell ranked higher than anyone else, and it's possible that I'm giving him too much credit for dominating the Florida Stat league as a 23 yer old but it's also possible that Bell turns out to be a late round steal. Bell was moved by the Jays out of the bullpen and into the starting rotation in July, and he only has 10 starts as a pro. But the thing is, he got even better as a starter than he'd been in the pen. How good had he been?

Well consider, in 2008 he pitched 30.2 innings of relief, striking out 43 and walking . . . none. Zero. Nada. in 2009 he started off in the Dunedin bullpen and 40.1 innings over 32 appearances, pitching in the shadows of more notorious relievers Tim Collins and Trystan Magnuson. In that time he gave up a stingy .200 BAA and struck out 56 while walking 10. After moving to the rotation, he threw another 56 innings and had a better ratio of hits allowed, walks allowed and homers allowed (only one as a starter) while lowering his BAA and posting a strikeout per inning. It's uncertain if the Jays' depth chart can accommodate him as a starter all the way to the majors, but he deserves the chance to remain in that role until it's proven he can't handle it.

Bell has also been referred to in some quarters as a potential closer. But that was before his remarkable performance in the rotation. At a bare minimum he's going to be either a nice trade chip or a potentially solid RH set-up man.

6. Bobby Ray: 1 - 21 - 1984 / 6'5", 195 / 7th round, 2005 draft

Ray is a dead ringer for A.J. Burnett except for the fact that he doesn't have AJ's arm. Still, the soon to be 26 year old RHP is not without talent. After being beset with injuries in 2006 and 2007, Ray re-established his credentials with a solid but unspectacular season in 2008. Early on in 2009, he was the beneficiary of other people's injuries, but after pitching 24 innings for the Jays, the injury bug returned, this time in the form of dreaded shoulder issues. Ray was back rehabbing in Dunedin late in the year and got to pitch in the AFL where he got another 24 innings over seven starts, with mixed results.

With the "injury prone" label now firmly attached, and the Jays expansive high-minors depth chart, Ray needs to stay healthy and effective in 2010. This ranking is possibly generous, since there is much than can go wrong here given the nature of his latest injury. But he's either better or closer than anyone else that might have been listed here, in my opinion. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to at least be a solid relief pitcher in the majors.

7. Andrew Liebel: 3 - 22 - 1986 / 6'0", 195 / 3rd round, 208

Liebel is an interesting case. He's one of those guys who can throw all his pitches for strikes, but none of them are outstanding pitches. He is, in a sense, the right handed version of Brad Mills, but that kind of ability doesn't get you as much traction when you aren't left handed. On the other hand, Liebel was regarded as one of those guys with a very good makeup and a solid "baseball IQ" that should allow him to make the most of his limited abilities. Last year I mentioned that he's the sort of guys that Dave Bush or Shaun Marcum were expected to be when they were in A-ball and that still applies, in the most general sense. But Marcum's ratio's were much much better all through the minors and he actually got a cup of coffee in the bigs at 23, so Liebel isn't remotely in his class, ability and more importantly performance wise, at this point.

In a weaker field, Liebel is the sort of guy who might bounce back and fourth trying to break into a major league rotation he's not quite good enough for. In the Jays' system, I tend to think he's never going to be high enough on the depth chart to be a major leaguer, short of a rash of injuries leaving them no alternative. I think his ceiling is not unlike that of one-time Jays minor leaguer Josh Banks, albeit with a somewhat different skill set.

8. Luis Perez: 1 - 20 - 1985 / 6'0", 205 / FA signed out of the Dominican Republic

Honestly, Perez is listed here almost entirely just because he's on the 40 man roster. His walk rate was high, and his K rate low for my tastes to be a 24 year old pitcher at AA. On the other hand, his BAA against was pretty good and his HR rate was above average, and he did skip Dunedin to get here so it's possible the Jays coaches see something that doesn't come through in the numbers. Still, the backlog of prospects is going to make it tough for Perez to advance in the Jays' system if everyone is healthy (like that ever happens).

9. Jose Vargas: 7 - 19 - 1990 / 6'0", 166 / FA signed out of Panama

Vargas started the season at the tender age of 18. He pitched in the Dominican Summer League which is a very low level of competition but he was outstanding in that role for the second straight year. The lean lefty posted a minuscule 1.34 ERA in 16 games, though only 6 were starts. He did pitch just as well as a starter as a reliever, averaging over 5 IP a start and posting a WHIP right around 1.00 while holding opposing hitters to a .225 BA (as a starter, .211 overall). Vargas could be next year's Alverez in terms of bursting onto the Jays' prospect charts if he gets a chance to play in Auburn at least..

Other names to notice in 2010:

Rieder Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez, Chuck Huggins, Kyle Ginley, Daniel Webb, Egan Smith, Randy Boone, Deivy Estrada (Estrada rocked the DSL to the tune of an 2.66 ERA pitching almost the entire season at age 16)

Now, I wouldn't be doing justice to this position if I didn't note that while technically no longer prospects, Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski while technically no longer prospects or even rookies are still not locked-in major leaguers either. The odds are pretty strong that one or both could pitch in the minors for a significant portion of 2010.

Here, for your edification, is a depth chart of Jays starters, ranked on the major league level by career innings pitched (injured players marked with *):

Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan*, Jesse Litsch*, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepczynski, Bobby Ray, Brad Mills. It's not hard to see how some of these guys, even those who have graduated from prospect lists, could spend a lot of time in Vegas this year.

Farm Report 2009: The Catchers

Again here, as with so many positions for the Jays in 2009, the top of the pre-season list disappointed.
(see the 2008 list here)

1. J.P. Arencibia: 1-5-1986 / 6', 215 / 1st round, 2007

After establishing him self as one of the Blue Jays' most anticipated prospects in 2008, Arencibia was rushed (IMO) to AAA Las Vegas in 2009 and promptly gave back most of the excitement he had earned the previous year.

I said in the report on the catcher position list year that the promotion of a young player who's one outstanding offensive tool was power hitting to the PCL before he had consolidated his others skills at the plate was a mistake and the results seem to support that. JPA hit for power in 2009, with the usual caveat about it being the PCL, but even then his performance was wildly inconsistent. He hit eight homers in May, and eight in August - yet only 21 in all.

The interesting thing to note about his stat breakdowns is that there's a direct correlation between his walk rate and his power production. In his three worst months (April, June and July) he recorded only 4 of his 26 total walks.

Arencibia is still one of the Jays' better prospects. it's not inconsiderable that he spent his age 23 season at AAA. But he's going to have to solve the problem of drawing a walk, at least to a manageable degree, before he is a full time big leaguer.

2. Carlos Perez: 10-27-1990 / 6', 193 / Free Agent signed from Venezuela

Playing at age 18 for the Gulf Coast League Jays, Perez burst onto the teams prospect scene with a very solid season. Perez got a late start and only got into 43 games for the GCL team but he impressed team coaches and scouts with his defense and his bat. And that on the heels of posting a 50:27 BB:K ration in the Dominican league in 2008.

It's always difficult to say too much about rookie league players, but there's a lot of positive buzz around Perez.

3. Brian Jeroloman: 5 - 10 - 1985 / 5'11", 200 / 6th round, 2006

Jeroloman was always a guy who, while a gifted receiver, had a pretty low offensive ceiling. His calling card at the plate was an excellent eye which led to an impressive BB:K ratio. there was no secret, of course, that higher level pitchers would be less inclined to give a free pass to a guy with so few other offensive skills, but the hope was that he would be capable of at least fringy offense in the majors because he so very good on defense.

In 2009, though, Jeroloman's stock took a big dive. He returned to AA so that both he and Arencibia could play every day and he had his worst year with the bat. His walk rate dropped a couple of points but his strikeout rate shot up from 16.5% in 2008 to 27.8% in 2009. If that had accompanied a corresponding increase in power production it might have been mitigated but Jeroloman had exactly the same number of homers and extra base hits in 2009 as in 2008.

Worse still, he got worse as the season progressed. It's uncertain if the Jays tried to rework his swing or something or if he simply had a bad year, but at this point a guy who once drew comparisons to the likes of Brian Schneider is now looking more like Kevin Cash.

4. Sean Ochinko: 10 - 21 - 1987 / 5'11", 205 / 11th round, 2009

Amid the uproar over the 2009 draft picks the Jays didn't sign, and the fact that the two highest picks who did sign didn't play professionally in 2009, little attention was paid to the players who did get significant pro playing time. Of those who did, none got off to a better start than Ochinko. So good, in fact, that I came very close to ranking him ahead of Jeroloman - hesitating only in that we have a much smaller sample of work upon which to judge Ochinko.

Playing his age 21 season at Auburn, the versatile Ochinko posted a .909 OPS and had a sterling .412 wOBA in August before running out of gas at the end (he hit under .200 over his last seven games). His offensive game was solid all around, with the caveat that his walk rate could stand improvement. I've found no reviews on his defense as a pro and there is some speculation afoot that he could end up at first base because he got significant time there at LSU. I'm uncertain how much weight to give to that, though, because that may have been a function of there being a superior defensive catcher on that college team more so than any inability on Ochinko's part.

That said, look for the Jays to give him every opportunity to climb the ladder as a catcher, since the conversion to first is a relatively easy move down the line if it needs to be done. Also, and this is raw speculation on my part, it seems logical that if they give up on him as a catcher there's some possibility that trying him at 3B would make sense.

All in all, Ochinko, who could leap over Lo-A to play in Dunedin in 2010, joins Perez and fellow 2009 draftees Marisnick and Hobson on my list of players I'll be watching closely in 2010.

5. Yan Gomes: 7 - 19 - 1987 / 6'2", 215 / 10th round 2009

I have edited and revised this list based on new information. Originally I had Gomes listed in the "other players to note" section below and explained that choice thusly:

Gomes is a potential sleeper in this group, he could arguably have been listed even above Jimenez. I refrained for two reasons. first, I THINK I have heard negative comments on his defensive ability, though I can't verify that. Second, he turned 22 this year while playing in the rookie league so his impressive offensive numbers have a big caveat.

Just a couple of days later, Lisa Winston gives us an article on the Jays' 2009 draft crop which contains, among other salient quotes, this one relevant to my assertion:

When one caught, the other would DH (or in Ochinko's case, play some first base). Gomes is the better defensive catcher, however.

I sit corrected.

So I revised the list accordingly. Still, while both players had impressive offensive debuts, Ochinko's was enough better that I'll give him the slight edge this time around.

6. Antonio Jimenez: 5 - 1 - 1990 / 5'11", 200 / 9th round, 2008

Potentially Jimenez is following a similar path to Jeroloman except that he lacks even the one offensive talent Jeroloman had displayed. Said to be a solid to potentially superior defender, Jimenez has struggled to tap into any offensive potential. Scouting reports suggest that there might be some there, but his 2009 walk rate was a minuscule 2.4% and he struck out 10 times as often as he drew the walk. His batting average was decent but there wasn't a significant display of power to offset the poor ratios. Still, he's only 19 and he has a couple of years yet to perhaps catch fire.

Other players to note behind the plate include Jon Talley, Matt Luizza, and Kyle Phillips.

The 20 year old Talley is big for the position (6'3" - which suggests a potential move to 1B or DH at some point) but he was expected to capitalize on a nice 2008 by displaying a promising power bat but 2009 was a lost year for the big left handed hitter. He did double his BB% but otherwise he declined across the board. Also worth noting is that his 2008 BABIP was unnaturally high, so some regression was to be expected. The coming season is an important one for the Jays to see what they really have with Talley.

Liuzza is another LSU product, who was playing his age 25 season at Dunedin so any excitement about his .848 OBP has to be seriously tempered. He is, however, considered to be a gifted defender, and he's the sort of player that often gets leap-frogged to AAA when injuries set off a chain reaction in the system. If he gets a chance at the higher levels and runs with it (offensively) then he could put himself on the map as a potentially useful fringe major leaguer. I could see him having a relatively long career as a AAA journeyman at least.

That outcome - non-prospect who does well enough to put himself in a position to be useful - is somewhat reminiscent of another player in the Jays system: Kyle Phillips. Phillips has enough service time to have been a minor league free agent this winter before the Jays resigned him. The 25 year old had registered three consecutive years of solid wOBA numbers as he climbed the ladder in the Jays system, which offsets the temptation to note the PCL effect on his 2009 numbers. The 51's got him into a lot of games at 3B in 2009, which either speaks to potential defensive issues or, more likely, is a recognition of the fact that Arencibia took priority as the "catcher of the future" yet then manager Mike Basso wanted to get Phillips' bat into the lineup.

While he is an entirely unheralded player as a prospect, who's name pretty much never comes up when someone is discussing the future of the Jays behind the plate, I've got a good feeling about Phillips. The remarkable consistency in his production since coming into the Jays' organization - spread over three years and three levels - leads me to believe that he's found an offensive level he can duplicate. Add to that the value of being able to play third and (presumably) first and you have a potentially useful role player in the majors. The Jays could do a lot worse than breaking camp with Phillips as their reserve catcher in 2010.

There's a potential issue for the Jays in where they place these guys in order to get the maximum number of reps. Arencibia and Jeroloman have the top two levels tied up for now. Luizza played at Dunedin last year but at his age, he might be assigned to a higher level next year permanently, or the guy who's moved about as injuries warrant. Below that level it gets really hairy, with one full season team and two short season teams in play, for 5 players. The older guys, Ochinko and Gomes, should logically play at a higher level given their offensive production, and Talley had already advanced to Lansing last year. so for my money, you have to move Liuzza up to one of the higher levels, even if that means he loses some at bats, and go with Ochinko in Dunedin.

I'd then put Gomes and Talley splitting time at Lansing, despite both presumptively needing reps behind the plate, and I'd move Perez up to Auburn even if that meant bumping Jimenez back to the GCL until the log jam sorted itself out some. but anytime you have a guy you consider a prospect not assuming his defensive position most every day, it's not ideal.

Farm Report 2009: The Outfielders

Short on preliminaries this week, since the list is longer - I'll get right to it.
(see the 2008 list here)

1. Mosies Seirra: 9-24-1988 / 6'0", 225 / signed as free agent out of Dominican Republic

Like some other positions, this is a list with a very close choice for the top spot. Unlike the other positions, the choice here is between two candidates who did well in 2009. the margin between 1 and 2 is very slim. So what's to like about Seirra?

Well, he held his own in the FSL at age 20, which is no mean feat and something that other Jays' 20 year old prospects didn't do - in fact, Seirra got into 8 games in AA. He has good control of the strike zone for his age (he had a .360 OPS to go along with his .286 BA) and is a highly praised defender with an arm that draws comparisons to Jesse Barfield. He has solid doubles power which should develop as he progresses up the chain. It's also well known that the FSL is a league which strongly favors pitching and suppresses home run power too.

He's not a speedster, but he also doesn't seem to take foolish risks on the basepaths. Jays management is sending signals that perhaps they'll be slowing down the aggressive promotion schedule of the previous team, but even so, it's not inconceivable Seirra could be ready for RF in Toronto by 2012.

2. Johermyn Chavez: 1-26-1989 / 6'3", 220 / Free Agent signed out of Venezuela

Four months younger than Seirra, Chavez also had a breakout season in 2009, though he did so for Lo-A Lansing. The difference in the two is that Chavez displayed both significant power and also much less strike zone discipline, racking up 21 homers over against 137 strikeouts. Chavez is not reported to be a sub-standard defender, but he possibly behind Seirra in that regard primarily because of throwing ability. It would be wonderful for the Jays if one of them was at least an average CF but I've seen nothing to suggest that is the case. of course, Chavez is likely at least 3 years away if not more and by the Travis Snider might fit best as a DH.

3. Eric Thames: 11-10-1986 / 6'0", 205 / 7th Round, 2008

Thames is an interesting case. He apparently has an impressive set of tools and when he is on the field he makes things look easy with the bat. The problem is staying on the field. The Jays snagged him so late in the draft because he had a major leg injury as a senior in college. He didn't get into a professional game in 2009 as he recuperated. Starting off 2009 at Hi-A Dunedin - an aggressive placement - he roared through the first month of games as if he was under-matched (.340 - .412 - .462 - .884). Then, before the middle of May, he was on the DL again.

He got into 14 games in June, then went back to the DL. He somehow managed to drag himself back for the last 10 games of the season and posted a 1.033 OPS over those 10 games. That kind of record throws up all kinds of sample size alerts, but it also makes one drool over the possibilities if he could ever play through a full season. Thames is fairly fast, but not stealing a lot of bases yet (possibly protecting the previously injured leg) and is a solid defender with the exception of having a weak arm. Here again, if he could make passable throws from CF the anticipation level would be that much greater. but it remains to be seen if his body will let him reach the majors at all.

4. Jake Marisnick: 3-30-1991/ 6'4, 200 / 4th round, 2009

Now here's your center fielder.

Marisnick was rated #42 overall by Keith Law and not a few mock drafts had him as a first round talent. the Jays flat out stole him in the 4th round and he has not only all the physical tools you'd want but a tremendous attitude. he's already talking about championships and being the best prospect in the organization and in a year or two he might very well be just that.

Expect AlexA and company to take it slower with prospects than JP did, but Marisnick might just be the exceptional guy who moves fairly quickly. Admittedly though, it's just speculation until he plays some pro ball.

4. Adam Loewen: 4-9-1984 / 6'6" 235 / signed as minor league free agent

Normally a guy who spent his age 25 season at Hi-A ball wouldn't be on anyone's list, especially with an OPS of .695 - but this isn't a normal situation. Informed fans know Loewen was a very high draft pick for the Orioles as a pitcher, but not so many know that - like Rick Ankiel - he was considered almost as good a hitting prospect out of high school as he was a pitching prospect. After arm issues pushed him from the mound, Loewen picked up a bat after some six years or so of disuse. 2009 was his first year back in the role of hitter/fielder.

Thanks to MiLB.com's maddening tendency to let fall league stats trump full season stats, I can't give you the details that I'd like but the story on Loewen is that in the first half he was totally lost at the plate, except for showing a decent ability to take a walk. as July rolled around he found a grove and roared (comparatively speaking) through most of the second half before fading in the last couple of weeks. the Jays sent him to the AFL where he floundered, striking out almost 2 times a game.

This ranking may well be too high, but so much good has been said about Loewen's natural hitting ability that I'm inclined to not give up my optimism just yet. The Jays signed him to a two year contract so he needs to show them something next year. He'll likely have to start back in Dunedin but he'll advance as fast as his bat will allow, he's on a different clock that the rest of the system.

5. Darin Mastorianni: 8-26-1985 / 5'11", 190 / 18th round, 2007

If you've been missing the days when the Jays featured a speed merchant at the top of the lineup, you have to be rooting for Matorianni. The speedy CF racked up a total of 70 stolen bases between Dunedin and AA New Hampshire in 2009. Beginning the season in A ball, he posted an .816 OPS through 61 games and accumulating 32 steals. After his promotion to AA, he took a few weeks to find his groove at the plate (again, stat breakdowns are impossible to find at the moment) but his speed didn't slump and he accumulated another 38 steals in 70 games. He adjusted with the bat and he was a capable hitter down the stretch.

Mastorianni probably doesn't have the tools to be a full time starter in the bigs, but it wouldn't be at all inconceivable to see him turn out like Scott Podsednick, for instance.

Other names of note:

Kenny Wilson - young, fast, raw. showed some sparks but needs to establish himself

Marcus Brisker - Like Wilson, only more unsuccessful in 2009

Eric Eiland - like Brisker, only more unsuccessful - to the point of being written off if he doesn't show something in 2010.

Its also worth noting that some of the other players in the system might wind up in the outfield. Gustavo Perrie, for instance, is expected by some to outgrow SS; KC Hobson has played as much OF as 1B though the scouting reports suggest he doesn't have the tools to handle the OF as a pro; John Tolisano and Scott Campbell are both second basemen who have enough defensive questions to provoke questions about moving to the outfield.

Farm Report 2009: The Third Basemen

You know when you are trying to raise a crop in the midst of a historic five year drought? It's kinda like that for the Jays at 3B down on the farm. there are at least three guys who were considered legitimate major league prospects and all of them failed to impress this year, with only age offering a counter-point to what is otherwise unending bleakness at this position.

See the 2008 list here)

1. Kevin Aherns: 4-26-1989 / 6'1", 195 / 1st Round, 2007

Make no mistake - Aherns did nothing to ear the #1 spot. He holds it entirely be default, being that he was a former first rounder and the highest rated 3B prospect last year, and neither of the potential challengers did anything to take it from him. There's really no point in trying to parse Ahrens' results, but what the heck. in may, June, and August Aherns was just bad at the plate, in April and July he was awesomely disastrous. I suppose one could take some encouragement from the less bad months.

If you want some tiny bit of encouragement to cling to, keep in mind that aherns was just 20 and really shouldn't have been playing at high A after the unimpressive work at Lansing last year. Especially given that the Florida State league is said to be a pitcher's league.

There's some indication the new management will take things slower with Aherns and some other struggling hitters next year. Hopefully Aherns can develop a bit of a rhythm repeating the level.

2. Mark Sobolewski: 12-24-1986 / 6', 190" / 4th round, 2008

Sobo is the one of this trio who can't entirely point to his age as a mitigating factor. Playing at 22 in Lo-A ball, you're supposed to do fairly well if you don't want to be called a disappointment. His .666 OPS certainly doesn't get close to "fairly well."

A well regarded hitter in college ball at Miami, some observers considered him a bit of a steal when the Jays signed him as a fourth round pick as they word was that he could move into the first round if he'd gone back for his senior year. but the Jays have yet to see a potential first rounder in his work. He did show improvement in his walk and strikeout rates, but it's time for him to take a step forward if he wants to stay in the conversation.

3. Balbino Fuenmayor: 11-26-1989 / 6'3", 235 / Signed as free agent.

A cool name will only get a guy so far, and the big Venezuelan - who had a mild breakout in 2008 for the Jays' Gulf Coast League affiliate - didn't offer much more than that in 2009.

The team was said this time last year to be considering moving him across the diamond to first base but that switch didn't come. Wherever he plays, a BB:K ratio of 9:119 won't get it done.

Also worth noting, the Jays tried second base prospect Scott Campbell at 3B in 2009, but - while he's a better hitter than any of these guys at this point, he doesn't have the power potential most teams look for in a 3B. It would be somewhat akin to someone like one-time Jays' prospect Chris Stynes being your full time third baseman - the sort of thing teams not even trying to contend do.

You can take heart for future lists though, it can only get better from here.

Farm Report 2009: The Shortstops

Continuing in my series of Farm System reviews, it's time this week for the shortstops. As before, it is highly debatable how one ranks the first and second prospect on the list. Ultimately, these simply come down to a judgment call, or a hunch.
(See the 2008 list here)

1. Justin Jackson: 12-11-1988 / 6'1", 186 / 1st round supplemental, 2007

No player in the Blue Jays system has been more personally frustrating to me than Jackson. Going into the 2007 draft, he was my first choice for the Jays' first pick and I was thrilled that they got him at #45 overall. I've said enough about Jackson in the past that it's easy to repeat myself but so be it. Jackson is a gifted, fluid, natural fielder who can almost certainly make it to the majors on his glove alone.

But the hope would be that he turns out to be something more than an all-glove guy who can't hit. Jackson has shown maddening inconsistency at the plate, having entire months of top-prospect production mixed literally with a month or two of complete disappearance at the plate.

In 2009, he shook off an invisible April and roared through the first half of may before being sidelined by a shoulder injury. After spending some three weeks on the DL he came back to the lineup but the fire in his bat was gone and he struggled for 60 more games before being DLed again and sent to see the surgeon.

There's no good spin to put on his 2009 totals. However, in an obvious attempt to not let go of my man-crush on Jackson, I'm giving him a mulligan on 2009 because of the injury. It's not that big a stretch to explain his terrible bat as being a result of trying to play through a painful shoulder. I still think he has more upside than the #2 guy.

2. Tyler Pastornicky: 12-13-1989 / 5'11, 170 / 11th round, 2008

Pastornicky has one really above average skill - he's very fast and is a smart baserunner. He had 51 steals in 2009, and has succeeded on almost 4 of every 5 attempts as a pro. He's also accumulated nine triples in Lo-A Lansing before being promoted to Dunedin late in the year. Otherwise, offensively, he's still pretty raw. He's displayed no power potential to this point, and he OBP skills are just ordinary at this point. If he could get to a place where he could get on at a .370-.380 rate or better the lack of power wouldn't be an issue.

On defense, he's reported to be fundamentally sound and talented enough to stay on the position, but nothing that makes the highlight reels. In 2009, Pastornicky didn't OPS as well as Jackson did the year before, yet some observers are praising Pastornicky while panning Jackson's 2008 in Lansing. My guess is that it's a matter of expectations, and there's a reason Pastornicky didn't have the level of expectation that Jackson did.

The bottom line for me is this - if you ask which player is more likely to get close to his ceiling, it's possibly Pastornicky. But Jackson clearly, in my mind, has the much higher ceiling and so he gets the nod.

3. Gustavo Pierre: 12-28-1991 / 6'2", 183 / signed as a free agent

Playing 2009 at the tender age of 17, Pierre spent the entire season for the Gulf Coast Jays short season team. The kid was a high profile signing out of the Dominican Republic and his talent is well regarded but at this point, it is simply too early to speculate if he'll be able to translate his skills to on field success. The sample size of professional work simply doesn't lend itself to statistical analysis. The one thing that does jump out at you though, is that his plate judgment needs a LOT of work.

4. Ryan Goins: 2 - 13 - 1988 / 5'10", 170 / 4th round, 2009

Goins is an interesting, somewhat under-the-radar player. Well regarded enough to go in the 4th round, the LH hitter did reasonably well at NY-Penn League Auburn before being promoted in mid-August to Lo-A Lansing where he struggled in 18 games. Regarded as a "high-energy" player and a good teammate, Goins will be worth keeping an eye on in a Jays system that struggles to develop shortstops.

Beyond that, there's no one of note. There are those among the Jays armchair analysts who would suggest I might ought to mention Angel Sanchez, who played for the Las Vegas club in 2009. So I'll mention him - just long enough to dismiss him with prejudice. Sanchez is a 26 year old who was a minor league free agent signing last January and will no-doubt be traveling on by the same road this winter.

He was somewhat well regarded in the Kansas City system in 2006 but missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery. In 2008 he was a non-factor offensively although he seemed to have developed decent doubles power in 2009 but some reports have his defense having regressed from his days as a prospect. Frankly, Sanchez does nothing particularly well. It's not impossible that he, or a player much like him, could fill one of the Jays' major league shortstop openings next year, but you shouldn't expect to be pleased with what you see if he does.

Farm Report 2009: The Second Basemen

After much delay, it’s time to get back to the positional review of Blue Jays prospects. You can find the previous column on First Basemen here. Tonight’s edition is all about Second Base. This position is a bit more of an academic exercise because the Jays are so well situated at 2B for the foreseeable future. Unless of course Aaron Hill moves to 3B in a few years. If you were only looking at internal options, you’d have to be tempted to do that because third isn’t exactly a position of strength for the team.

As before, let me acknowledge I am not a scout and all my information is second hand (at least) and statistical. The limited service I provide here is just to bring that info together under one heading.

(See the 2008 list here)

1. Brad Emaus: 3-28-1986 / 5'11", 210 / 11th Round 2007

In 2008, Brad Emaus blazed down the stretch and carried that hot performance right into the winter. The former college third baseman In his first full season of pro-ball, he played in Dunedin all year and posted a solid overall performance, with the most notable accomplishment being his 60 walks as opposed to 56 strikeouts. He also performed well in the spring and started off well this year in New Hampshire.

But in June of 2009 Emaus went absolutely ice cold. His OPS for the month was under .400! If you take that month out of his season, Emaus had pretty comparable seasons in 2009 and 2008. There’s a lot to like about Emaus. He’s not a high-ceiling type guy, but he is the sort of player who’s more likely to reach the ceiling he has. My guess is that ceiling looks something like Mark Ellis.

2. Scott Campbell: 9-25-1984 / 6'0", 190 / 10th Round, 2006

It was a very close call in my mind taking Emaus over Campbell. Offensively, they share many of the same qualities, although Emaus has shown somewhat more power, while Campbell has a generally higher batting average. Also, Campbell bats lefty while Emaus is right handed. The edge for Emaus comes in that there have been no cautionary reports on his defensive ability.

Campbell played all of 2008 at second and was said to be having some difficulty with the double play turn. He has, after all, had very little experience compared to most prospects given the dearth of organized ball in his native New Zealand. In 2009 the Jays spent a lot of innings mystifyingly trying to make a third baseman out of Campbell. I have no idea why given that pretty much no team ever puts a single/double hitting guy at third if they have a choice. I’m not sure if they know any more than they did before, though, because injuries pretty much wrecked Campbell’s 2009 campaign.

Campbell opened the season in Las Vegas but never got untracked offensively before the injuries set in. After his recovery he was bumped back to AA (where he spent 2008) but he’d spend more time disabled again in July. He hit well in June and August though, showing flashes of his ability and he still showed the excellent ability to get on base via the walk. The best comp for Campbell is still probably Frank Catalanotto (with more walks). I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Campbell thrown into a trade because it doesn’t look like there’s a question on the Jays roster for which Campbell is the answer.

3. John Tolisano: 10-7-1988 / 5'11", 190 / 2nd Round 2007

Tolisano is, of course, part of the (then) celebrated crop of promising high school hitters taken by the Jays in 2007. All of those upper round hitters have taken there lumps in the pros and Tolisin isn’t an exception. Some had speculated that his defense might result in a positional switch but he remains at second base in the jays system for now. Offensively his work in 2009 is pretty similar to what he did - at a lower level - in 2008. There were signs of improvement - a lower K rate and better slugging, and he was only 20 years old in High A ball. It’s not unrealistic to still believe Tolisano has a future, but like his classmates, a breakout year in 2010 would defiantly not go amiss. It is worth noting that like Emaus, Tolisano had one very bad month. In August his OPS was a measly .456 which is not the way you want to end your season.

4. Ryan Schimpf : 3-11-1988 / 5'9", 181 / 5th Round, 2009

Schempf is in a sense a classic low-round college pick. The word that springs to mind is “competent.” With such a limited sample of professional work, it’s hard to get a read on him at this point. We’ll know more a year from now.

Not really worthy of being listed, but a sentimental nod goes out to young Jon Fernandez. Tony’s boy is a 22 year old switch hitter who played second for the GCL Blue Jays and Auburn Doubledays this summer, but a combined OPS of .616 is pretty damning, given his age and level. Which is too bad.

Farm Report 2009: The First Basemen

It's time once again (past time probably) for me to run down the Annual Farm Reports. For those who were not readers last year, I do this by positions, mostly, in an effort to bring something to the table that you don't routinely find elsewhere. As I disclaimed last year, you should understand that these are VERY inclusive lists and as such might mention guys who are very long shots or really, not prospects at all in the normal sense of the word. That said, there may yet be omissions, generally on the rookie level simply because there's not enough data yet to get a good read on them.

Before I start the actual list, Let me comment on Randy Ruiz. He is still technically a rookie and thus, in the broadest sense, qualifies for a prospect list. But he's 32 and has been all over the minors on the AAA level. He is, barring being waived, under the Jays control for years just like any other rookie. But I have no idea where to try to fit him in on a list like this. IF the Jays strip down for the next couple of years he'll probably get a chance to show he can stick. But you don't get to be 32 without ever having had that shot unless you have flaws, at least in theory.

Last year's list can be found here. As you can see this is an inexact science.

Instead of ages this year, I'll be listing birthdays.

1. David Cooper - 2-12-1987 / 6'1", 210 / 1st Round 2008

Cooper presents an interesting case when it comes to ranking prospects. One that will come up over and over in the Jays' system this year. which is - to what extent does draft position and scouts opinions balance off against a disappointing statistical performance? Cooper had an outstanding August which helped his final stat line, though it was still not impressive. but outside August he was a non-factor.
It's true that it was his first full season in the pros, and that he might perhaps be a bit rushed, but only a bit. Cooper maintained a solid walk rate this year, but his slugging dropped off to unacceptable levels for a 1B - especially one who has a poor reputation as a defender, as Cooper does. I've given him the benefit of the doubt this year, both on this list and the top 25, but if he repeats such an unimpressive performance he'll surely not receive such generous treatment next year.

2. Brian Dopirak - 12-20-1983 / 6'4", 235 / 2nd Round, 2002

The obvious caveat on Dopirak is his age relative to the normal prospect trajectory, but that alone wouldn't have cost him the top spot on this list for me. The reason I ranked him second again has to do with the murmurs out of Toronto that the Jays are not yet convinced. It's one of those situations where the non-professional observer is at a loss.
Statistically, Dopirak has done pretty much everything he can to put himself on the map, so whatever it is that fails to impress has to be on a more direct-scouting level. Does he have a long swing? Does he have a particular sort of pitch he can't touch? I don't know. I seldom see anything specific to explain the lack of enthusiasm. One wonders if he's not going to get stuck on the Randy Ruiz career path.
Dopirak posted a .951 OPS in AA, and upon his (too late, IMO) promotion to AAA, he hardly slowed down. His OPS in Vegas was .876 and his adjustment period was short which is notable because his previous track record was that he took too long to adjust to each new level. I certainly hope that, if the new-look Jays are indeed going to eschew the free agent route and re-tool, that Dopirak will have a chance to prove his doubters wrong. Particularly if Ruiz gets his shot in the majors, Dopirak would logically be the stand by guy to step up if Ruiz fails to impress. Like Ruiz, and Cooper, Dopirak brings nothing remarkable to the table on defense. but he could be a capable major league DH if his abilities transfer to the majors.

3. K.C. Hobson - 8-22-1990 / 6'3", 210 / 6th round 2009
Virtually overlooked in all the controversy over the Jays failure to sign three high round choices was the fact that they made a couple of excellent high value picks in later rounds and spent the extra cash to sign them. One of those was 1B KC Hobson. While he's listed in some sources as "1B/OF" the reports indicate to me that his future is probably at 1B. Hobson was #66 among high school prospects by Baseball America this summer. Some sources suggested he could creep into the end of the first round and that he would certainly not be overdrafted in the second or third at that time. The Jays got him in the sixth, buying him out of a commitment to Texas A&M.
The son of former Red Sox player and manager Butch Hobson has baseball in his blood and in his brain. He regales his high school teammates with stories of Yaz and Ted Williams arguing in his dad's office about hitting. He works every year at his father's baseball camp. He has learned all his life what it is to be in a baseball clubhouse. He has plus power and a good approach at the plate, and unlike others on this list, is a reasonably skilled defender, though not very fast.
Keep your eye on this kid, he's one of the under-the-radar guys who might step up the prospect list very quickly over the next 2-3 years.

4. Michael McDade - 5-8-1989 / 6'1", 260 / 6th round 2007
I ranked McDade #3 last year as well, based strictly on potential (and lack of depth at this position in the system) and he had something of a mild breakout in 2009 to justify that praise. He posted an .801 OPS at Lansing this year after posting weak numbers the year before. He strikes out about once per game but his walk rate is ok and the power potential is beginning to turn into results.
The flip side is that he's listed at 10 pounds heavier than he was last year. While one would like to cite Cecil Fielder when discussing his physique, it's all too easy to think of Calvin Pickering instead (and if you don't know who that is, there's a good reason). It's impossible for us to tell how much of that weight is simply fat, but the young man would no doubt help his prospects tremendously if he'd get a trainer now to help him deal with it while he still has upside.



Not listed here but worth a mention are some players who are not now playing at 1B but still are considered potential 1B at some point down the road. 2009 Draftee Sean Ochinko, who was the MVP of the Auburn Rookie team is a catcher, at present, though he played a lot of first base in his senior year at LSU. Another catcher who might shift positions is big Jon Talley, who's said to have great power but who struggled offensively for Lansing this year while concentrating on developing his defense. There's also been talk for over a year that 3B Balbino Fuenmayor might eventually end up at 1B.

Archive - Producing Results From the MLB Draft: A Case Study

Let me state first and for the record. I am not a statistician or a sabermatician. What follows is no doubt flawed in a number of ways. It is a "quick and dirty" snapshot albeit it was definitely not quick work.

Some caveats are obvious and I''ll try to mention them as appropriate but no doubt you may spot some I don't mention. Please be aware that I am aware of the limitations of this sort of thing.

Also, I will admit up front that this will come off as a Blue Jays focused article in that the parameters I used are defined by JP Ricciardi's term as GM of the Toronto club (2002-2009), but it is not primarily an apologia for Ricciardi's work in this regard. I brought to this study certain hypothesises, and those were neither completely borne out nor disproven. Be that as it may, it was necessary to adapt some sample size to be studied and given my allegiances it was the obvious choice.

The question I presented to myself was this: Which teams did the best at producing major league contributions out of the amateur draft? One could have broadened the question to include all players developed by a given system including international signings.

But it would have consumed even more of my time to have reviewed every roster for Latin players and then track down whether each was signed within the window of time I was looking into. I did, however, take it as a general principle that in a study which begins with the 2002 season, not a lot of Latin signees within that time frame will have reached the majors and made a notable impact given that such players usually take longer in the system.

In order to do this, I needed a measure of contribution that was consistent across all players. Ultimately I chose WAR (Wins Above Replacement) primarily due to the fact that career WAR totals for every player are readily available at FanGraphs. So, a simple, yet time-consuming, cross reference between the draft records of each team and the player pages on FanGraphs produces a database of WAR totals, as of the close of the 2009 season, for each team.

A few of big caveats jump out right from the start: the first is draft position. When you see two teams that produced generally similar results, you should referance that against the relative average draft positions of the two teams. For instance, in my final rankings the Orioles and the Phillies are only one point apart. Yet the O's have had vastly better drafting positions over the seven years under study (I discount 2009 as irrelevant since none of those players have yet reached the majors). Thus one can safely assume the Phillies have done better work.

A second caveat is time. A team will have naturally gotten more WAR from a player drafted in 2002 than another team will have gotten out of a player, even a notably better player, drafted in 2006. For example: The Blue Jays get credit for 10.2 WAR from David Bush, and only 0.6 from Travis Snider. But there's no question who's the better player. That's why I say this is a snapshot of a work that's continually in progress. You'd have to go back to drafts in which all the players are no longer active to avoid this problem and that becomes a question of historical curiosity instead of current relevance.

Finally I want to point out that my ranking system is flawed. If I were, in fact, a statistician I'd know how to weight the results more closely to the production received, but I don't. What I actually did was award point in reverse-order fashion. That will produce some anomalies which I am uncomfortable with, but I'm unsure how to remedy. If any of you math geniuses out there want to see my results in order to more properly rank them, feel free to ask.

What I tried to do here is strike a balance between quantity and quality. Some teams, for whatever reason, pushed a lot of drafted players to the majors but many of them had little impact. So there had to be a balance between just arriving, and being an actual quality player. To do this I arbitrarily chose the figure of 2.0 career WAR. This works against some younger players (Travis Snider, as mentioned, stands at 0.6 right now) but it also helps define the situation, as for the great majority of players those below 2.0 are non-factors.

To illustrate why this balancing act was necessary, I refer you to the St. Louis Cardinals. they ranked No. 6 in all of baseball in putting players in the majors from this study group, with 26. But only four of those players have more than two career WAR. that's tied for last in all of the major leagues.

The other balance I thought was important was between total WAR of all players, and average WAR. That has to do both with properly recognizing teams that produce many productive players, and at the same time controlling for the fact that otherwise unproductive teams manage to strike gold with one superstar who carries his team up the list.

For example, Khalil Greene (hardly a superstar of course) accounts for a full 73 percent of all the WAR produced by San Diego Padres drafting during 2002-2008 (and I've actually heard some Jays fans suggest Kevin Towers would have been a good hire for the new GM but I digress). As a general rule, the best player produced by top ranked teams here account from 1/4 to 1/3 of their (drafting) teams WAR production.

So the final list as arrived at by factoring in four component lists.

1. Total number of players drafted who reached the majors, irrespective of contribution (obviously many players had negative WAR totals). This one rewards the ability to draft a player who's at least good enough to earn promotion to the majors.

2. Total number of drafted players with have a 2.0 or higher career WAR total as of the end of 2009. This one controls for #1 by rewarding teams for producing actual contributors and not just September/injury call ups.

3. Net total accumulated WAR total of all players (total positive WAR value minus negative WAR values). this should be obvious.

4. Highest average WAR per player who reached the majors. This one controls somewhat for both the first item above (since every one of those cup-of-coffee call ups waters down the average) and also for the tendency of one or two great players to cover the failures of the rest.

Each list was awarded points in reverse order (this is particularly weak in the case of the second list where many teams tie for the same position but it's the best I could do) and then the points totaled to arrive at the following rankings. some other observations will follow. (relative draft position used to break ties)

1. Oakland A's - 114 points
   
2. Boston Red Sox - 107
3. L.A. Dodgers - 97
4. Arizona Diamondbacks - 97
5. San Francisco Giants - 92
6. Toronto Blue Jays - 90
7. Milwaukee Brewers - 86
8. Tampa Bay Rays - 86
9. Colorado Rockies - 84
10. Detroit Tigers - 83
11. Kansas City Royals - 78
12. Minnesota Twins - 76
13. Atlanta Braves - 73
14. Texas Rangers - 71
15. New York Mets - 67
16. Cleveland Indians - 60
17. Washington Nationals - 55
18. Florida Marlins - 54
    
19. Pittsburgh Pirates - 51
20. Baltimore Orioles - 51
21. Chicago White Sox - 50
    
22. Philadelphia Phillies - 49
23. L.A. Angels - 47
24. San Diego Padres - 40
25. Chicago Cubs - 37
26. New York Yankees - 36
27. St. Louis Cardinals - 32
28. Houston Astros - 32
    
29. Cincinnati Reds - 25
30. Seattle Mariners - 23

Some observations:

• Even with the controls, one player can dramatically skew the rankings. For instance, Zach Greinke makes up 54.4 percent of the Royals WAR total. Take him out and re-figure the averages and you get (without adjusting other teams point total accordingly) a Royals total of 40 points instead of 78, which is much more reflective of the rest of their work. Or consider the Padres, without Greene their 40 points drops to 25.
• Teams who had one player make up 40 percent or more of their WAR totals include (in order from highest percentage): over 60 percent: Padres, Nats; over 50 percent: Marlins, Royals, Phillies, Orioles, Astros; over 40 percent: Mets, Angels, Reds, Pirates, Cards, Braves, White Sox.
• The most efficient team in terms of average WAR per player? The D'Backs with Chris Snyder leading the way at at 13.6 percent.
• 29 players have accumulated individual totals over 10 WAR. The Red Sox are the only team to have drafted three of these men. 10 of these players were chosen in the first 10 picks of their draft.
• 11 of those players are over 15 WAR.
• Of the 60 players taken in the top 10 picks from 2002 to 2007, 1/3 have failed to reach the majors so far.

The A's average first draft position was No. 20 (over the 2002-2009 window), the Red Sox were at No. 30, Dodgers at 22, D'Backs at 16, the Giants averaged No. 11, and the Jays come in with an average pick of No. 15. The Brewers also averaged pick No. 11 (with rounding). By contrast, before 2009 the Rays average first pick was No. 3.

I'd humbly suggest that if your favorite team landed in the Top Seven, you should be pretty pleased with the results. Red Sox, A's, Dodgers, and D'backs fans should be giddy.

I obviously went into this with the thinking that the Jays were being under-rated in this regard and I think that conclusion bears out. But I was surprised when I first considered this subject how well the Giants in particular had done, and how poorly the Cards and Cubs have done. Hopefully even this ham-fisted ranking will provide a fresh perspective on this subject.

Archive - Post Mortem: The JP Ricciardi Era

So it begins. For several years now the impatient McFans of the Toronto Blue Jays have cried out for the head of the GM and today they finally got their wish. I have said in this space, and believe, that the time was right to let him go, because the team has imploded this year in multiple ways. I'm not convinced all or even most of the current wreckage is his fault, either actively or passively. It's not without importance that the real downward spiral didn't start until Paul Beeston returned to power. It pains me to say that because he, much more than Cito, is among my heroes from the glory days but there it is.

Still and all, there was no reasonable way out of the current mess that didn't involve JP getting the ax. As for the timing, it seems to me self evident that the Hurricane Cito forced Beeston's hand here. it would have been impossible to exclude JP from the meetings and discussions (team meeting this afternoon followed by news conference) and it would have been useless to include a guy he knew he was going to can in a few days in those events.

I'll leave aside an analysis of Alex Anthpoulos for another day - it hasn't been that long since I commented anyway - except to say I approve.

The tact I want to take today is to provide perhaps a more balanced view of the eight-year reign of JP Ricciardi. Most of the reactions I've seen across the net today are quite simply overblown and mostly inaccurate. one poster called his tenure "abysmal" (which is nonsense) and pretty much all of them refer to the entirety of those eight years as one continuous unit (and thus one overall failure) which, I think, is simplistic.

Is this a defense of JP? I'm sure if you are one of those who've been lighting a candle for his firing for three years you will see it as such. For some of you, ANY positive directed his way is "apologist." I do not intend, though, to justify all his work. Some of it I disagree with strongly. But I do believe that the criticism is considerably too harsh. He failed to achieve the goal that most fans set for him (or any GM) - make the playoffs. If that is the benchmark for firing, then he deserves to be fired. But even if that's the bottom line, it's a superficial analysis.

What you are about to read, if you have the fortitude to stay with it, is NOT superficial.

JP was hired in the fall of 2001 and the reporting at the time was that he had told Paul Godfrey the Jays could win as many games as they had been winning for a lot less money. Over the years that has morphed in a "telephone game" sort of way into "I can win (the division) on a lot less money." The Jays had been a slightly over .500 team for three consecutive years preceding the firing of Gord Ash. this had been accomplished with a middle-of-the-pack payroll in the late 90's that had grown to over $76 million (good for 10th in the majors) in 2001. JP's first job was to clear away the deadwood and make the baseball payroll more inexpensive. It was expected and understood that in the early years, that job took precedent over wins and losses.

Furthermore, concerning payroll, one cannot competently review the Jays history over the last eight years without noting the seismic shift in the relative payrolls in the AL East since JP took over. Note my graph on that subject here. The competitive payroll situation in 2001 wasn't at all similar to the one in 2006 (for instance).

It's also oft-stated that JP was supposed to be a "Moneyball" guy and didn't turn out to be. That is perhaps a more complex thing than I want to divert into but just to be clear, Moneyball is about finding undervalued assets, not OBP in particular. Thus what was a good "Moneyball idea" in 2002 was not necessarily what was moneyball in 2006.

All that being said by way of prelude, let's dig in. I had intended to do this review in year-by-year fashion but that was just running too long, even for me. So rather than exhaust your patience in that manner, let's take a somewhat different approach. As much as it gets repeated that JP "has had eight years and failed to contend in any of them" the simple truth is, the Jays were not trying to contend in many of those years. In fact, as it turns out, the JP era divides rather nicely into two equal portions. For reference, I'll call these "Early JP" and "Late JP." Let's compare the two:

Early JP

In the first four years of his tenure here, the primary focus was on stripping away overpriced players and rebuilding a foundation that could support success going forward. it's true that the 2003 team inexplicably won 86 games and perhaps unfairly raised expectations (which were crushed like a grape by the 2004 team) but the simple fact is that 2002-2005 were budget teams. Trades were made to move cash as much as to bring talent. Signings were designed to plug holes, not to spring the team into the playoffs.

Departing the team during this period were such notable names as Billy Koch, Paul Quantrill, Alex Gonzalez, Brad Fulmer, Raul Mondesi, Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar, Carlos Delgado, and Shannon Stewart. With only a couple of exceptions, those traded didn't bring back significant contributors and the departed free agents freed up money that was saved, not reinvested. This is not a circumstance in which you are trying to contend.

Further, in the first four drafts, the Jays focused on college talent that could arrive and contribute in the majors relatively quickly. If the goal was to have a "window of contention" on the horizon, these players should be in the majors or close by that time. for the most part, JP accomplished what he wanted in that regard. David Bush, Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Rickey Romero, and Jesse Listch are the result of that work and Casey Janssen and David Purcey may yet produce value.

There were, of course, significant missteps. The dealing of Felipe Lopez for players who didn't pan out, for instance. the inordinate amount of money spent on poor relievers for another example. Drafting Russ Adams with his first #1 draft pick was a black mark as well.

One of the major complaints often noted here is the departure of Carlos Delgado but given the fact that Ted Rogers didn't announce his big financial investment until after the window had closed on the Jays to bring him back, that's not really one to hang around JP's neck. Likewise, complaints are raised about letting Chris Carpenter walk but given the unlikelihood of his recovery from a major shoulder injury, that was the logical move at the time. letting Kelvim Escobar go and blowing the savings on a couple of lesser pitchers was much less defensible.

In terms of in-house contracts, JP extended Vernon Wells and Eric Hinske early, following a model established to widespread praise by the Cleveland Indians of locking up young talent. He got tremendous value in Wells and Hinske regressed to the point that he was well over-paid.He also re-signed Roy Halladay to a significantly under-market contract.

The only really significant free agent signing in the early period was Corey Koskie, who came to the Jays in the fall of 2004 presumably to be part of the contending years. After Delgado's departure, Ted Roger's announced in February 2005 that he was committing to $210 million in payroll over the next three years - but too late to be worthwhile in improving the 2005 squad.

That 2005 team was crippled in mid-season when Kevin Mench drove a baseball into Roy Halladay's leg in the midst of his (Halladay's) best ever season and finished with 80 wins, just as Gord Ash's last team had. It was only after 2005 that the impact of Uncle Ted's largess was applied. The bottom line is that as 2005 draws to a close, there has not yet been a year in which the Jays made any pretense of being contenders.

Late JP

Beginning in December 2005, JP pulled out the stops. in quick succession he signed BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett, then dealt for Lyle Overbay. A couple of weeks later he got the chance to deal for Troy Glaus and seized it, even though that left him with an excess of corner infielders.

By mid-season the Jays were 12 games over .500 and flirting with the wild-card race. Strangely, after a couple of ordinary weeks, Shea Hillenbrand concluded "the ship was sinking" despite the fact that the Jays had lost very little ground. He was dealt and the team collapsed in early August.

Even after all that unnecessary drama, the 2006 team won 87 games and seemed on the cusp of being a power to be reckoned with. Even though it was a myth that JP ever claimed they would be contenders in five years, it turned out that after five years on the job, the Jays were looking towards 2007 with considerable optimism.

Frank Thomas was added on a questionable deal, and preformed well in his first year with the team but the overall offense fell by over 50 runs from their 2006 performance. Most of this was due to key crippling injuries to Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus. On the other hand, the pitching got much better as several of the young pitching prospects blossomed into contributing players. Ultimately, the team underperformed expectations by several games but that was viewed by most as an aberrational unlucky season.

Last year (2008) is still fresh enough in our memories that it needs little in the way of review. The most significant move, Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen, was understood by most as a sideways move and much more ink and bandwidth was dedicated to the ditching of Reed Johnson for Shannon Stewart (which in turn led to other lame attempts to fill the open hole in the lineup). That fiasco, combined with the collapse and release of Frank Thomas hamstrung the efforts of the 2008 squad and left them once again disappointing expectations. Manager John Gibbons paid the price and the team revived under Cito Gaston but the hole was already too deep.

Still, by the advanced metrics posted on Baseball Prospectus and other sources, the Jays were one of the very best teams in the majors in 2008 and over the 2006-2008 window. In terms of building a good team JP had, despite obvious imperfections and glaring errors, had done what he set out to do. but it wasn't good enough. And there were enough places where the need for improvement was so obvious that it was and is easier for fans to point out those failings than to appreciate the accomplishments.

This year, of course, due in some part to being handcuffed financially by upper management, the Jays have largely flown off the rails (even though they still are a better team, according to the advanced metrics, than their record indicates). On the surface level, judged simply on wins and losses within the context of this division, those who are impatient for a change are too short sighted to realize how very small a window three years (2006-2008) is to win.

But JP's story is about more than the surface level. There is, most notably, the aforementioned slowness to act in-season. Whether it's Kevin Millar this year, or Brad Wilkerson in 2008, the Jays consistently waste far too many at-bats on players who have no business on the roster. In similar fashion, with only three exceptions, the Jays have been painfully immobile at the trade deadline each July.

Off the field, JP did a good thing in providing unprecedented media access to his thinking...then promptly turned that into a bad thing by constantly making verbal blunders that served to build a very unfavorable impression of the sort of man he is. To this day, there is a huge disparity between what those closely associated with JP think of him personally and what those outside that circle of acquaintances think.

Even here at the last, the suspicion is growing that JP tipped off Ken Rosenthal to the discord in the Jays' clubhouse. While it might be impossible to know for sure, if that impression takes hold as the "conventional wisdom" it will brand him as one of the most reprehensible baseball executives in memory. This off-field drama over the last few years is enough, by itself, to account for his dismissal in the absence of playoff appearances.

There are several aspects to being a good GM. If I were grading JP out on them I'd do it like this:

Bringing in big-name talent via trade or free agency:
pluses - Glaus, Rolen, Overbay, Burnett, Lilly
minuses - Thomas, Ryan (both good players brought in under unwise deals)

The good outweighs the bad here, I'll give it a B

Contract management internally, including identifying which talent to extend and retain and which to let go:

pluses - kept Roy Halladay out of free agency twice; extended Wells at a great value; Aaron Hill's deal; dumping Rios.
minuses - Vernon's current deal (which wasn't really up to him but the popular perception lays it as his feet); Hinske's deal; Rios's extension; Letting Escobar walk; running Reed Johnson out of town.

Has saved about as much as he wasted, if you don't count Wells against him (which I don't). Call it a C

Getting good value to fill out the roster, via trades and signings (of a non-big-name variety):

pluses - the Rolen deal looks good so far; Accardo for Hillenbrand; Hilenbrand for Peterson; Speir for Hendrickson; Lidle and later Tallet for minor league nobodies; Scutaro, Bautista, Inglett in little noticed trades; signings including Downs, Carlson, Richmond, Stairs, Zaun, Myers, Bordick, and Catalanotto.

minuses - Felipe Lopez deal was a bad one; paying the Brewers to take Koskie (especially when it would have been far better to dump Hillenbrand); a multitude of bad fliers don't count, in my opinion, because they didn't stick (and taking fliers on guys who don't stick is part and parcel of running a major league team) but that still leaves several relievers that never should have gotten so many bad innings and particularly sticking with guys like Wilkerson and Millar who clearly had lost whatever they once had.

As before, these tend to balance out. Chad Gaudin being stolen and then given away is a perfect example. Still, I think there's considerably more good than bad here. we did not lose as much, in terms of between-the-lines value, playing Wilkerson as we gained from a guy like Catalanotto alone.

B+

Drafting and prospect acquisition:

pluses - despite repeated slags against the Jays drafting under JP, the fact remains that by any analysis, the Jays have gotten as much production in the majors out of the draft since 2002 as almost any team in baseball.

minuses - when the Jays shifted in the later years to higher-upside high school picks, they got players who have been slow to develop. Also, until recently the production out of Latin America was sorely lacking. Also, while it's uncertain who is to blame, the failure to sign all the high draftees will be mentioned for years as a mark against JP.

As before, the good and the bad tend to balance. I'll call it a C here as well.

Being the "face of the franchise":

pluses - availability, at least in the initial going (in later years he tended to eschew most of the local media in favor of national and particularly East Coast media).

minuses - too many to list.

Grade: Overall, the bad far outweighs the good...gotta grade this as F.

Overall, he's a solid "C" from where I sit. Perfectly competent, probably good enough to have considerable success in a place like San Diego or Pittsburgh. But not good enough here.

Make no mistake, I think it was time to fire him and I think that, despite the things where he's judged, in my opinion, far too harshly - there is a solid case for firing h im even without the context of the 2009 collapse.

However, I'm a stickler for accurate commentary, and I continue to resist the tide of sloppy analysis. JP undoubtedly made many mistake and clearly failed to reach the level of success all of us including him expected. But let's also be accurate. JP tried and failed to contend for THREE years, not eight.

If he hadn't been such a public relations liability, if he hadn't been so slow to adjust in season, there would have been every reason to continue his employment because that's not really that big an opportunity to succeed - particularly in this division.