Yes, Ian, I totally stole your Tweet there. Sorry man, had to do it.
In case you were out of touch tonight, as I was for the first five innings, RR Cool J (i.e. Ricky Romero) carried a no hitter into the 8th inning tonight in what was far and away the best game of his young career. He punched out 12 White Sox batters in the first seven innings of tonight's game as well. With only 90 pitches thrown, in a crisp quick game in which the Jays were leading 4-0, Romero seemed on track to make his mark in the Jays' record books.
Then, in what is always an assholish move but is particularly annoying tonight given the situation, the White Sox catcher - who's name I won't mention in an impotent attempt to spit on him - managed to convince home plate umpire Tim McClellan that a pitch in the dirt hit his foot (it didn't, according to all accounts) to put on the White Sox' second runner of the night. That brought to the plate Alex Rios.
You remember Rios, right? the perennial disappointment in a Jays uniform? The supposed unmotivated unconcerned lackadaisical under-achiever, who was showered in boos last night?
Yeah, that guy.
He hit a homer.
I have no idea what the post game reporting will be and I never get to actually WATCH the games but my guess is Romero was momentarily distracted by the phantom HBP, which is ultimately on him but still, fuck that guy (and I don't mean Rios).
Romero finished the eighth and got the win, and given the groove the Sox hitters were in last night it's impressive as hell to pitch eight innings of one hit ball. But ah, what might have been . . .
In other news today, the Jays finalized the Adeiny Hechavarria signing. The soon to be 21 year old (as of Thursday) became Blue Jays' property officially by way of a 4 year $10 million contract (don't panic, he won't be a free agent at the end of the deal, though there is a somewhat complex condition in his contract which requires him to begin his major league options in 2013).
Hear Alex Anthopoulos discuss him on the Fan 590 here. Alex seems real excited about the guy. Apparently he's going to EST (as I predicted) for a month or so and AA suggested he might get at least a few weeks in Dunedin before moving up. But he also mentioned that some scouts thought he could step right into AAA and be in the majors by the end of the year so there's room for that plan to be modified in favor of a faster track. Apparently how fast he acclimates to the North American culture is perhaps more of a factor than the baseball skills.
Nothing here mitigates the growing sense that AH! (How's that for a nickname?) will be in contention to break camp with the Jays next spring.
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Explaining Myself
Rather than repeat the same observations regarding the last couple of wins that most all the other major blogs (wait, did I just imply I was "major"? Well, you know what I mean...) let me take occasion here to explain at more length a comment I've made a few places.
That comment being, of course, my assertion that on paper, this is a team which might be expected to finish at or near .500 this year. Of course, that claim stands in stark contrast to the gloomy predictions of 60-something wins.
I admit on the face of it that I'm no statistician or sabermatician. The basis for my claim is simply a look at the runs scored and allowed last year, and how one might reasonably expect the offense and pitching to preform this year in terms of improving upon those totals (or not).
You might remember that the 2009 squad scored more runs than it allowed, for a pythag record of 84-78 (an expectation which they under-preformed by nine wins, by the way, as the Jays are wont to do). That team scored 798 runs, and allowed 771. So how does the new roster shape up in comparison to that one? Let's take a closer look. I'll be using OPS+ and ERA for this "quick and dirty" comparison.
Catcher:
2009 - Barajas (73), Chavez (67)
2010 - Buck (103 in '09; career 84); Molina (51; 60)
Jays catchers combined for averages of .230/.259/.374/.633
Despite the obvious absence of offense from Molina, there's no reason to expect the combined output from these two to be less than the team total last year, and might conceivably me marginally higher.
First Base:
2009 - Overbay (122)
Jays first basemen combined for a line of .263/.363/.447/.810
Overbay has a career 111 OPS+, weighed down by a couple of years which were hampered by a hand injury. But the "standard issue" Overbay is pretty much what we saw last year and, other than a marginal downgrade for age, there's no reason to not assume this position will account for that level of production again. Let's not forget that Ruiz, on the rare occasion he gets to play, should exceed what we got from Millar last year.
Second Base:
2009 - Hill (117)
Jays second basemen combined for a line of .289/.335/.504/.839
It pays to remember here that while everyone expects Hills' HR power to slack off this year, he saw a significant drop in his doubles last year and those homers that he (theoretically) would lose in 2010 turn back into doubles. In 2007 Hill doubled once every 12.9 at bats, and homered once every 35.8 at bats. If we applied those rates to 2009, when he got far more appearances, then he'd have had 53 doubles and 19 homers. So if he simply reverted back to 2007, with a 2009 total of at bats, his OPS+ would be in the 110-112 range. And that's assuming all other factors are equal.
I'm willing to suggest that there's no reason to assume other than a marginal decrease in Hill's production at the plate.
Shortstop:
2009 - Scutaro (111)
2010 - Gonzalez (64, 79)
Jays' shortstops - .280/.367/.407/.774
While one can only concede there's a big offensive drop off here, it's also worth noting that in2007, prior to an injury that cost him a full season, Gonzo posted a 99 OPS, albeit in Cincinnati's bandbox. Then, during his comeback season in 2009, he struggled early in the year for the Reds but after being dealt to Boston is OPS+ was 95. Point being, it's not a given that Gonzalez won't meet or exceed his career figure, even though he's now 33. So we'll assume a drop here of approximately 30 points.
Third base:
2009 - Rolen (as a Jay 124) Encarnacion (as a Jay, 97)
2010 - Encarnacion (92, 101)
Jays' third basemen - .285/.349/.439/.788
EE's best year so far was 108, he struggled last year to an overall 92, so that's the range we are looking at. Split the difference and he's at around 100, same as his career mark. Let's give him the benefit of a small doubt and also note that Rolen missed a lot of days that EE probably won't and conclude a 20 point drop at this position.
Left Field:
2009 - Travis Snider - (98, 101)
Jays' left fielders: .270/.349/.461/.810
2010 should see Snider's figure go up, if for no other reason than increased playing time. He might yet have some stumbles at his young age, but it's not wildly unlikely that his totals would match the production from Jays' LF last year, with the possible exception of fewer walks. There's enough here to call LF a wash, at worst.
Center field:
2009 Vernon Wells (88, 108)
Jays' CF in 2009: .258/.312/.396/.709
Alright, seriously, does anyone think Vernon is going to be THAT bad again? Even close? Coming into 2007 Wells had a 112 OPS+, and his figure for 2006 was 129. In 2008 it was 122. The odds are, even though he's older, that he'll more likely exceed his career figure, but I'll be modest and suggest perhaps 115? I think there's enough improvement here to offset the 30 points we lost on the shortstops.
Right field:
2009 - Rios (96 as a Jay)
201- Bautista (101, 91)
Jays right fielders: .253/.323/.442/.765
Thing is, as much as I think JB will be overexposed as a full timer, Rios under-preformed so greatly last year that there's not really an obvious drop off between his number and Bautista's demonstrated abilities. I have my beef with Bautista as a full time player, let alone lead off hitter, but Rios set the bar really low last year.
DH:
2009 - Lind (144, 119)
Jays' DH in 2009 - .275/.343/.506/.849
I'm going to suggest the team gains some ground here. Not because I'm saying Lind will be better (though he might be) but because of the at bats the team gave to Kevin Millar last year. True, not all of them were at DH, but the slash totals above show you the kind of impact DH's-other-than-Lind had on the total...at bats that will go to Lind this year one assumes.
Still, the bump here would be marginal I'm sure. Maybe something quite similar to Hill's margial decrease.
Sum total here is this is an offense that is down about 20 points in OPS+ among all starters - that being the lost ground at 3B. How many net runs is that worth? and how many runs do we lose on the defensive drop at 3B? Well, according to Fangraphs, the difference in Rolen and Encarnacion for all of 2009 was about 29 runs above replacement last year. So that makes this team, on paper, a roughly 770 run team.
Ah, but you say, the difference is the pitching! Doc is gone and that's huge!
Well, yeah, it is and it isn't. But let's pause here so you can grab a cup of Earl Grey (hot!) before we go on with this tome.
Got it?
Ok.
The pitching is harder to break down year to year as i did with the hitters above, so let me break the starting rotation down like this:
2009 Romero = 2010 Romero
29 starts at 4.30 ERA last year to maybe as many as 32 this year. Natural progression would assume a slightly better outcome but we won't be gready here. his ERA+ last year was 101 and I'll give it a marginal increase to 105.
2009 Doc = 2010 Marcum.
Doc's 2009 was 32 starts at an ERA of 2.79, over 239 innings.
Marcum's last year, 2008, was 25 starts, and a 3.39 ERA over 151 IP.
Doc averaged 7.47 IP per start, while Marcum averaged 6.04 so a surface comparison is difficult. But I'll start by applying Marcum's average innings to 32 starts and that gets us over 193 IP so giving him a bit of credit that his average tics up just a bit - say 1/3 of an inning (203 IP) .I'll credit 36 of Doc's innings to the bullpen. That would work out to Marcum surrendering about 76 runs this year - assuming a performance consistent with he most recent year) which is 2 runs more than Doc gave up.
The bullpen last year had a collective ERA of 4.o8. that implies that we give up about 16 more runs in those 36 innings Doc kept out of the pen (if the pen were neither better or worse).
So we are down 18 runs.
Now, here's where things get interesting:
The following pitchers got starts for the Jays last year, beyond Doc and Romero:
Tallet - 25 starts, 5.41 ERA as a starter
Richmond - 24, 5.59
Cecil - 17, 5.34
Zep - 11, 3.67
Purcey - 9, 6.19
Janssen - 5, 6.23
Ray - 4, 4.44
Litsch - 2, 9.00
Mills - 2, 14.09
Burres - 2, 14.21
That's 101 starts (three full time starters) and a combined ERA of 5.54, which presents the question thusly: will the collection of pitchers likely to fill those three slots in 2010 be able to meet or exceed that benchmark?
The candidates are Brandon Morrow (Career ERA as starter = 4.70), Tallet, Dana Eveland (4.34 ERA in 29 starts in 2008), Cecil and Zep (like Tallet, represented above), possibly McGowan or even Litsch in the second half, and potentially Mills, Drabek or other less obvious choices.
I don't think it's a stretch AT ALL to suggest that the last three spots in the rotation will, collectively, be AT LEAST as good as last year, if not marginally better.
Turning to the bullpen, returning pitchers include Frasor, Downs, Camp, and soon, Carlson. Will they be as good collectively as last year? I think so. the righties will likely regress a bit, and both lefties should do better.
Beyond the core returnees, there's Janssen , Accardo (for now), Gregg and Valdez. Gregg steps into Brandon League's old job, and should be able to match or closely simulate League's 4.58 ERA and number of innings. If we are asking Valdez to give us what Dirk Hayhurst did last year, that's reasonable. Janssen should be better than last year, in terms of ERA (5.14 as a reliever) and Accardo somewhat worse (as measured by ERA). So far I think we have a wash.
Going into call ups, will Roenicke be at least as good as his 7+ last year? Sure, likely better. Will Purcey the reliever do better than Ran did last year? almost certainly. We're now 10 men deep into the relief core. and it's still pretty unlikely this group is worse.
So if we lost 18 runs prevented by losing Doc, then we stand to allow roughly 790 runs in 2010.
That's giving up about 20 runs more than you score, or a pythag of 79-83.
Am I making a ton of assumptions? Sure. EVERY projection for this year's final record does. Health is assumed, of course. Regression towards the mean in several cases, the natural progression of youth . . . none of which is assured. but you have to make SOME assumptions and it's no more valid to assume Snider stumbles his way back to AAA than it is to assume he becomes somewhat better than he's been to this point. Ditto for a number of other points here.
Besides, doesn't this team have a little karma in the bank after the number of times in recent years they have under-preformed their expected record? It's definitely not a GOOD team, as currently constructed, but it's not as bad as many suggest either.
That comment being, of course, my assertion that on paper, this is a team which might be expected to finish at or near .500 this year. Of course, that claim stands in stark contrast to the gloomy predictions of 60-something wins.
I admit on the face of it that I'm no statistician or sabermatician. The basis for my claim is simply a look at the runs scored and allowed last year, and how one might reasonably expect the offense and pitching to preform this year in terms of improving upon those totals (or not).
You might remember that the 2009 squad scored more runs than it allowed, for a pythag record of 84-78 (an expectation which they under-preformed by nine wins, by the way, as the Jays are wont to do). That team scored 798 runs, and allowed 771. So how does the new roster shape up in comparison to that one? Let's take a closer look. I'll be using OPS+ and ERA for this "quick and dirty" comparison.
Catcher:
2009 - Barajas (73), Chavez (67)
2010 - Buck (103 in '09; career 84); Molina (51; 60)
Jays catchers combined for averages of .230/.259/.374/.633
Despite the obvious absence of offense from Molina, there's no reason to expect the combined output from these two to be less than the team total last year, and might conceivably me marginally higher.
First Base:
2009 - Overbay (122)
Jays first basemen combined for a line of .263/.363/.447/.810
Overbay has a career 111 OPS+, weighed down by a couple of years which were hampered by a hand injury. But the "standard issue" Overbay is pretty much what we saw last year and, other than a marginal downgrade for age, there's no reason to not assume this position will account for that level of production again. Let's not forget that Ruiz, on the rare occasion he gets to play, should exceed what we got from Millar last year.
Second Base:
2009 - Hill (117)
Jays second basemen combined for a line of .289/.335/.504/.839
It pays to remember here that while everyone expects Hills' HR power to slack off this year, he saw a significant drop in his doubles last year and those homers that he (theoretically) would lose in 2010 turn back into doubles. In 2007 Hill doubled once every 12.9 at bats, and homered once every 35.8 at bats. If we applied those rates to 2009, when he got far more appearances, then he'd have had 53 doubles and 19 homers. So if he simply reverted back to 2007, with a 2009 total of at bats, his OPS+ would be in the 110-112 range. And that's assuming all other factors are equal.
I'm willing to suggest that there's no reason to assume other than a marginal decrease in Hill's production at the plate.
Shortstop:
2009 - Scutaro (111)
2010 - Gonzalez (64, 79)
Jays' shortstops - .280/.367/.407/.774
While one can only concede there's a big offensive drop off here, it's also worth noting that in2007, prior to an injury that cost him a full season, Gonzo posted a 99 OPS, albeit in Cincinnati's bandbox. Then, during his comeback season in 2009, he struggled early in the year for the Reds but after being dealt to Boston is OPS+ was 95. Point being, it's not a given that Gonzalez won't meet or exceed his career figure, even though he's now 33. So we'll assume a drop here of approximately 30 points.
Third base:
2009 - Rolen (as a Jay 124) Encarnacion (as a Jay, 97)
2010 - Encarnacion (92, 101)
Jays' third basemen - .285/.349/.439/.788
EE's best year so far was 108, he struggled last year to an overall 92, so that's the range we are looking at. Split the difference and he's at around 100, same as his career mark. Let's give him the benefit of a small doubt and also note that Rolen missed a lot of days that EE probably won't and conclude a 20 point drop at this position.
Left Field:
2009 - Travis Snider - (98, 101)
Jays' left fielders: .270/.349/.461/.810
2010 should see Snider's figure go up, if for no other reason than increased playing time. He might yet have some stumbles at his young age, but it's not wildly unlikely that his totals would match the production from Jays' LF last year, with the possible exception of fewer walks. There's enough here to call LF a wash, at worst.
Center field:
2009 Vernon Wells (88, 108)
Jays' CF in 2009: .258/.312/.396/.709
Alright, seriously, does anyone think Vernon is going to be THAT bad again? Even close? Coming into 2007 Wells had a 112 OPS+, and his figure for 2006 was 129. In 2008 it was 122. The odds are, even though he's older, that he'll more likely exceed his career figure, but I'll be modest and suggest perhaps 115? I think there's enough improvement here to offset the 30 points we lost on the shortstops.
Right field:
2009 - Rios (96 as a Jay)
201- Bautista (101, 91)
Jays right fielders: .253/.323/.442/.765
Thing is, as much as I think JB will be overexposed as a full timer, Rios under-preformed so greatly last year that there's not really an obvious drop off between his number and Bautista's demonstrated abilities. I have my beef with Bautista as a full time player, let alone lead off hitter, but Rios set the bar really low last year.
DH:
2009 - Lind (144, 119)
Jays' DH in 2009 - .275/.343/.506/.849
I'm going to suggest the team gains some ground here. Not because I'm saying Lind will be better (though he might be) but because of the at bats the team gave to Kevin Millar last year. True, not all of them were at DH, but the slash totals above show you the kind of impact DH's-other-than-Lind had on the total...at bats that will go to Lind this year one assumes.
Still, the bump here would be marginal I'm sure. Maybe something quite similar to Hill's margial decrease.
Sum total here is this is an offense that is down about 20 points in OPS+ among all starters - that being the lost ground at 3B. How many net runs is that worth? and how many runs do we lose on the defensive drop at 3B? Well, according to Fangraphs, the difference in Rolen and Encarnacion for all of 2009 was about 29 runs above replacement last year. So that makes this team, on paper, a roughly 770 run team.
Ah, but you say, the difference is the pitching! Doc is gone and that's huge!
Well, yeah, it is and it isn't. But let's pause here so you can grab a cup of Earl Grey (hot!) before we go on with this tome.
Got it?
Ok.
The pitching is harder to break down year to year as i did with the hitters above, so let me break the starting rotation down like this:
2009 Romero = 2010 Romero
29 starts at 4.30 ERA last year to maybe as many as 32 this year. Natural progression would assume a slightly better outcome but we won't be gready here. his ERA+ last year was 101 and I'll give it a marginal increase to 105.
2009 Doc = 2010 Marcum.
Doc's 2009 was 32 starts at an ERA of 2.79, over 239 innings.
Marcum's last year, 2008, was 25 starts, and a 3.39 ERA over 151 IP.
Doc averaged 7.47 IP per start, while Marcum averaged 6.04 so a surface comparison is difficult. But I'll start by applying Marcum's average innings to 32 starts and that gets us over 193 IP so giving him a bit of credit that his average tics up just a bit - say 1/3 of an inning (203 IP) .I'll credit 36 of Doc's innings to the bullpen. That would work out to Marcum surrendering about 76 runs this year - assuming a performance consistent with he most recent year) which is 2 runs more than Doc gave up.
The bullpen last year had a collective ERA of 4.o8. that implies that we give up about 16 more runs in those 36 innings Doc kept out of the pen (if the pen were neither better or worse).
So we are down 18 runs.
Now, here's where things get interesting:
The following pitchers got starts for the Jays last year, beyond Doc and Romero:
Tallet - 25 starts, 5.41 ERA as a starter
Richmond - 24, 5.59
Cecil - 17, 5.34
Zep - 11, 3.67
Purcey - 9, 6.19
Janssen - 5, 6.23
Ray - 4, 4.44
Litsch - 2, 9.00
Mills - 2, 14.09
Burres - 2, 14.21
That's 101 starts (three full time starters) and a combined ERA of 5.54, which presents the question thusly: will the collection of pitchers likely to fill those three slots in 2010 be able to meet or exceed that benchmark?
The candidates are Brandon Morrow (Career ERA as starter = 4.70), Tallet, Dana Eveland (4.34 ERA in 29 starts in 2008), Cecil and Zep (like Tallet, represented above), possibly McGowan or even Litsch in the second half, and potentially Mills, Drabek or other less obvious choices.
I don't think it's a stretch AT ALL to suggest that the last three spots in the rotation will, collectively, be AT LEAST as good as last year, if not marginally better.
Turning to the bullpen, returning pitchers include Frasor, Downs, Camp, and soon, Carlson. Will they be as good collectively as last year? I think so. the righties will likely regress a bit, and both lefties should do better.
Beyond the core returnees, there's Janssen , Accardo (for now), Gregg and Valdez. Gregg steps into Brandon League's old job, and should be able to match or closely simulate League's 4.58 ERA and number of innings. If we are asking Valdez to give us what Dirk Hayhurst did last year, that's reasonable. Janssen should be better than last year, in terms of ERA (5.14 as a reliever) and Accardo somewhat worse (as measured by ERA). So far I think we have a wash.
Going into call ups, will Roenicke be at least as good as his 7+ last year? Sure, likely better. Will Purcey the reliever do better than Ran did last year? almost certainly. We're now 10 men deep into the relief core. and it's still pretty unlikely this group is worse.
So if we lost 18 runs prevented by losing Doc, then we stand to allow roughly 790 runs in 2010.
That's giving up about 20 runs more than you score, or a pythag of 79-83.
Am I making a ton of assumptions? Sure. EVERY projection for this year's final record does. Health is assumed, of course. Regression towards the mean in several cases, the natural progression of youth . . . none of which is assured. but you have to make SOME assumptions and it's no more valid to assume Snider stumbles his way back to AAA than it is to assume he becomes somewhat better than he's been to this point. Ditto for a number of other points here.
Besides, doesn't this team have a little karma in the bank after the number of times in recent years they have under-preformed their expected record? It's definitely not a GOOD team, as currently constructed, but it's not as bad as many suggest either.
Wednesday, 7 April 2010
Geez Louise
I assume this will turn up in a blog post and if/when it does I'll try to remember to come back and link it but the current source is a series of tweets from Jordan Bastian...:
Cito: "Let me tell you this right now, Overbay is going to play against left-handers. So, why would I pinch hit for him?"
Cito, asked if he recalled ever pinch hit for as a player: "It's tough when you're sitting on the bench."
... and John Lott:
Long story short re: Gaston's pre-game talk about using pinch-hitters: Overbay will bat against everybody. "So that ends that."
That ends that, at least until Oby shows he's "not able to put some numbers up later on in the year,;maybe [then] you have to do something."
Cito: "It’s just something we want to do for him. He’s a free agent this year. We want to make sure he has a good shot out there (more)
Ok, look - I'm NOT down on Clarance about not pinch-hitting Ruiz for O'bay Monday, there's a solid argument for holding on to the good D in a close game (Buck hitting is another story though) BUT the very idea that The Manager thinks it's his job to do what he can to make sure Overbay gets a better contract next year is . . . is . . . hell I don't even have a word for how insane that is.
Word to Mr. Gaston, with all due respect to your hoary head of wisdom, your job here is to win fuckingballgames! And short of that to develop players into winners.
It is most assuredly NOT to make sure departing free agents do well for themselves on the market next winter. If you can do the latter while doing the former, bully for you - but is it too late to ask you to get your damned priorities in order, please?
Geez.
***
On a more upbeat note, Vernon Wells is now on a pace to hit 243 homers! PLAYOFFS!!!
Cito: "Let me tell you this right now, Overbay is going to play against left-handers. So, why would I pinch hit for him?"
Cito, asked if he recalled ever pinch hit for as a player: "It's tough when you're sitting on the bench."
... and John Lott:
Long story short re: Gaston's pre-game talk about using pinch-hitters: Overbay will bat against everybody. "So that ends that."
That ends that, at least until Oby shows he's "not able to put some numbers up later on in the year,;maybe [then] you have to do something."
Cito: "It’s just something we want to do for him. He’s a free agent this year. We want to make sure he has a good shot out there (more)
Ok, look - I'm NOT down on Clarance about not pinch-hitting Ruiz for O'bay Monday, there's a solid argument for holding on to the good D in a close game (Buck hitting is another story though) BUT the very idea that The Manager thinks it's his job to do what he can to make sure Overbay gets a better contract next year is . . . is . . . hell I don't even have a word for how insane that is.
Word to Mr. Gaston, with all due respect to your hoary head of wisdom, your job here is to win fuckingballgames! And short of that to develop players into winners.
It is most assuredly NOT to make sure departing free agents do well for themselves on the market next winter. If you can do the latter while doing the former, bully for you - but is it too late to ask you to get your damned priorities in order, please?
Geez.
***
On a more upbeat note, Vernon Wells is now on a pace to hit 243 homers! PLAYOFFS!!!
Big News and Important Stuff
Big news:
Behold this tweet concerning a certain Cuban moments ago:
Agent Bart Hernandez says SS Hechavarria's visa has been approved and he should be traveling to US this week to take physical with Jays
Halle-friggin-lujah. About damn time and all that stuff. In a recent interview, Alex Anthopoulos inferred that "if" they signed a Cuban player the first step would be to get him acclimated to the U.S. first, before throwing him into a more pressurized situation. I certainly am not privy to how they expect that to play out but my guess is that he'll go to extended Spring Training until the short season teams start playing and at that point, depending on how well he is adapting, and how well other shortstops in the system are progressing, they will have the choice of starting him anywhere from the GCL team to as high as AA. As much as I'd like to see him on the fast track to Toronto, I doubt anyone will know for sure where he'll play the bulk of the year until probably June.
Important stuff:
John Lott does fine work (again) giving us insight into how Vernon Wells spends that too-much money he makes. It's a fine read. More importantly it's a reflection of what's really important when it comes to Vernon Wells. I'm not going to say I'll never discuss whether or not he ought be hitting sixth instead of fourth or playing Right instead of Center - but I think I'm pretty much done with the issue of how much me makes until and unless it keeps the Jays from spending elsewhere. As long as Rogers is willing to spend whatever AA and Beeston ask for, Wells contract is a non-issue to me.
Because I know this much - what he makes will be well spent and will make a lot more difference than anything he does on the baseball diamond, even if he's an MVP. Maybe if the guy can't be a Hall of Fame baseball player, he can be a Hall of Fame human being and, as the Garfoose reminds us, isn't that a lot more valuable?
Behold this tweet concerning a certain Cuban moments ago:
Agent Bart Hernandez says SS Hechavarria's visa has been approved and he should be traveling to US this week to take physical with Jays
Halle-friggin-lujah. About damn time and all that stuff. In a recent interview, Alex Anthopoulos inferred that "if" they signed a Cuban player the first step would be to get him acclimated to the U.S. first, before throwing him into a more pressurized situation. I certainly am not privy to how they expect that to play out but my guess is that he'll go to extended Spring Training until the short season teams start playing and at that point, depending on how well he is adapting, and how well other shortstops in the system are progressing, they will have the choice of starting him anywhere from the GCL team to as high as AA. As much as I'd like to see him on the fast track to Toronto, I doubt anyone will know for sure where he'll play the bulk of the year until probably June.
Important stuff:
John Lott does fine work (again) giving us insight into how Vernon Wells spends that too-much money he makes. It's a fine read. More importantly it's a reflection of what's really important when it comes to Vernon Wells. I'm not going to say I'll never discuss whether or not he ought be hitting sixth instead of fourth or playing Right instead of Center - but I think I'm pretty much done with the issue of how much me makes until and unless it keeps the Jays from spending elsewhere. As long as Rogers is willing to spend whatever AA and Beeston ask for, Wells contract is a non-issue to me.
Because I know this much - what he makes will be well spent and will make a lot more difference than anything he does on the baseball diamond, even if he's an MVP. Maybe if the guy can't be a Hall of Fame baseball player, he can be a Hall of Fame human being and, as the Garfoose reminds us, isn't that a lot more valuable?
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
And So It Begins
This is obviously a season in which one must get there satisfaction in ways other than accumulation of wins and dreams of contention, still, you can't help but get that oh-so-familiar bitter taste in your mouth when you see a game in which you have so much to chear about for six innings go south at the end.
Still, while the taste is nasty, it's not unfamiliar so like taking medicine, you choke it down and take it in stride. In the mean time, we tip our collective hats to Shaun Marcum, who performed just as I expected (albeit i wasn't calling 6 no-hit innings), Adam Lind who surprised none of us with his 3 for 3 and a homer, and Vernon Wells whom we'd had varying degrees of hope for to be sure, but maybe few were optimistic enough to expect the day he had.
I'll pass along an negative and a positive on Wells that i picked up elsewhere -
The Negative: Wells actually hit very well on the road last year, so take this with a grain of salt;
The Positive: More impressive than Wells' homer was the single that drove in the go ahead run after the Rangers intentionally walked Lind to bring him to the plate. That's the sort of situation that Wells struggled with last year.
Of more concern to me, the rest of the offense was almost totally absent today. While I think Snider will come along fine and Overbay will be Overbay and so forth but . . . there are going to be a lot of days when I rage against our lead-off "hitter."
Oh well - Ill let that go for now in the spirit of opening day. Play ball, y'all.
Still, while the taste is nasty, it's not unfamiliar so like taking medicine, you choke it down and take it in stride. In the mean time, we tip our collective hats to Shaun Marcum, who performed just as I expected (albeit i wasn't calling 6 no-hit innings), Adam Lind who surprised none of us with his 3 for 3 and a homer, and Vernon Wells whom we'd had varying degrees of hope for to be sure, but maybe few were optimistic enough to expect the day he had.
I'll pass along an negative and a positive on Wells that i picked up elsewhere -
The Negative: Wells actually hit very well on the road last year, so take this with a grain of salt;
The Positive: More impressive than Wells' homer was the single that drove in the go ahead run after the Rangers intentionally walked Lind to bring him to the plate. That's the sort of situation that Wells struggled with last year.
Of more concern to me, the rest of the offense was almost totally absent today. While I think Snider will come along fine and Overbay will be Overbay and so forth but . . . there are going to be a lot of days when I rage against our lead-off "hitter."
Oh well - Ill let that go for now in the spirit of opening day. Play ball, y'all.
Sunday, 4 April 2010
Smiling Through the Pain: the Hitters
On the occasion of Adam Lind's new long term deal, of which I heartily approve and have no reservations at all about, I'll go ahead and get around to giving you my quick take on the hitters going north with the Jays, with the starters listed by Friday night's batting order since Clarance says it will be Monday's as well:
Jose Bautista (RF) - *Sigh* What can be said that has not already been said? Dude can't hit right handed pitching. Oh sure, buy into that hot 100 at bats at the end of 2009 if you want. Believe him when he says he "made an adjustment" and ignore the previous 1900+ plate appearances. But just remember that Rod Barajas had a 100 at bat stretch when his OPS was almost 1.000 last year, too.
Aaron Hill (2B) - I've been going on the assumption that Hill's power outburst last year was a career outlier and that long term he was a guy who'd homer in the low 20's and give you 40ish doubles, too. I figured he'd offset that small regression by walking a bit more this year. But he leads the team in spring homers so, while spring stats don't matter much, maybe I and everyone else was too quick to reach that conclusion.
Adam Lind (DH) - the straw that stirs the drink, I fully expect him to do as well or better than in 2009.
Vernon Wells (CF) - I'm not really that worried that he'll recover offensively. My guess would be something like an .830 OPS (which is pretty much the career number he brought into 2007 when he got on the insane roller coaster of the last three years). It's whether or not he can at least be passable on defense since the Jays seem adamant about not moving him out of that position. On that point, I'm not optimistic.
Lyle Overbay (1B) - If he plays every day, as The Manager has said, he'll be a huge liability vs LHP. If Ruiz platoons with him, he'll be a great asset here.
Edwin Encarnacion (3B) - Hand injury and recovery aside, EE gets far too much disrespect from Jays fans. He's clearly not likely to be a star, but he's produced considerably more offense in his career than Bautista and those who speak of ditching him and installing JB at 3B are . . . not rational.
Defensively, he enjoys a very bad reputation but a closer analysis indicates that he's a perfectly capeble, maybe even above average fielder when it comes to getting to and catching the ball - he makes almost all his errors on throws. It certainly behooves the Jays to see if Brian Butterfield can work his magic and clean up EE's footwork to solve that problem. Admittedly, he could be a disaster this year - but he could also be a very pleasant surprise for those of you who have very low expectations.
John Buck (C) - Is what he is. A somewhat younger and slightly better version of Barajas, at least offensively. It's difficult to asses where he stands defensively, I've seen wildly varying reports. If we are blessed, he'll give way to Arencibia before August begins.
Alex Gonzalez (SS) - has random episodes where he gets his offensive contribution up to league average or so - interspersed with other episodes where he's horrid. no way to know what we'll get from his bat. He'll likely be an above average fielder again, though he's not what he was at his peak.
Travis Snider (LF) - If you, like me, are wondering why I listed eight names before his, then you understand the reference to pain in the title. Everything about Clarance's handling of Snider pisses me off and is wrong, in my opinion. Yes I know, he's the respected baseball professional and I'm the guy who writes about it for free on the internet. Normally I try to show some restraint in assuming I'm smarter than the guy who's getting paid to decide but . . . just damn. Everyone in the baseball world can see this, it's not just me.
For starters, hitting a guy like Snider behind John Buck is foolishness but maybe, just maybe, that could be overlooked, at least initially. You'd just assume The Manager was sucked in by Buck's homer total last year. But hitting behind Gonzalez? There's simply no sanity to a move like that. it's hard to rant about it because it feels like trying to explain to you that the sky really is blue after all.
Secondly, I've heard all the giggles about how bad a Lind-Wells-Snider outfield would be, and possibly they are right. but isn't this write-off developmental season precisely the time when you settle the question of whether or not Snider can play a credible RF once and for all? Yeah, if we were trying to prove something in the win column, then by all means those marginal wins are to be taken seriously. but we're not, are we? I've seen the argument that it hurts the young pitching, but I don't think that, with proper coaching and communication, it has to. I'm of the opinion that a solid ground ball defense is what's key. We don't want our pitchers inducing a lot of fly outs anyway.
Bench:
John McDonald - Another verse, same as the first. Essentially a player-coach at this point
Jose Molina - Pitchers rave about throwing to him, should be good mentor for JPA eventually.
Randy Ruiz - I'm not totally sucked into the feel-good story, at least partly because I figure Clarance is going to screw it up anyway.
Mike McCoy - if all goes well, Joe Inglett 2.0, now with speed. Which is not a bad thing.
I won't extend this post to go into detail right now, but my quick & dirty analysis of this team, in terms of the potential for runs scored and allowed, makes it a slightly below .500 team on paper (irrespective of the multitude of forecasters openly speculating about 90+ loses) and I'm going to extend that a bit and suggest perhaps a bit of karma for all the years the under-preformed their expected results. I usually make my predictions with the understanding of +/- 3 wins, but I'll say up front that this prediction is at the top of that range. My usual prediction would be 80 wins (i.e. anywhere from 77 to 83) but I'm gonna call it 83 wins this time - with the caveat that that's my high-end guess.
I'll glance over the key minor leaguers in the next few days, as time permits.
Jose Bautista (RF) - *Sigh* What can be said that has not already been said? Dude can't hit right handed pitching. Oh sure, buy into that hot 100 at bats at the end of 2009 if you want. Believe him when he says he "made an adjustment" and ignore the previous 1900+ plate appearances. But just remember that Rod Barajas had a 100 at bat stretch when his OPS was almost 1.000 last year, too.
Aaron Hill (2B) - I've been going on the assumption that Hill's power outburst last year was a career outlier and that long term he was a guy who'd homer in the low 20's and give you 40ish doubles, too. I figured he'd offset that small regression by walking a bit more this year. But he leads the team in spring homers so, while spring stats don't matter much, maybe I and everyone else was too quick to reach that conclusion.
Adam Lind (DH) - the straw that stirs the drink, I fully expect him to do as well or better than in 2009.
Vernon Wells (CF) - I'm not really that worried that he'll recover offensively. My guess would be something like an .830 OPS (which is pretty much the career number he brought into 2007 when he got on the insane roller coaster of the last three years). It's whether or not he can at least be passable on defense since the Jays seem adamant about not moving him out of that position. On that point, I'm not optimistic.
Lyle Overbay (1B) - If he plays every day, as The Manager has said, he'll be a huge liability vs LHP. If Ruiz platoons with him, he'll be a great asset here.
Edwin Encarnacion (3B) - Hand injury and recovery aside, EE gets far too much disrespect from Jays fans. He's clearly not likely to be a star, but he's produced considerably more offense in his career than Bautista and those who speak of ditching him and installing JB at 3B are . . . not rational.
Defensively, he enjoys a very bad reputation but a closer analysis indicates that he's a perfectly capeble, maybe even above average fielder when it comes to getting to and catching the ball - he makes almost all his errors on throws. It certainly behooves the Jays to see if Brian Butterfield can work his magic and clean up EE's footwork to solve that problem. Admittedly, he could be a disaster this year - but he could also be a very pleasant surprise for those of you who have very low expectations.
John Buck (C) - Is what he is. A somewhat younger and slightly better version of Barajas, at least offensively. It's difficult to asses where he stands defensively, I've seen wildly varying reports. If we are blessed, he'll give way to Arencibia before August begins.
Alex Gonzalez (SS) - has random episodes where he gets his offensive contribution up to league average or so - interspersed with other episodes where he's horrid. no way to know what we'll get from his bat. He'll likely be an above average fielder again, though he's not what he was at his peak.
Travis Snider (LF) - If you, like me, are wondering why I listed eight names before his, then you understand the reference to pain in the title. Everything about Clarance's handling of Snider pisses me off and is wrong, in my opinion. Yes I know, he's the respected baseball professional and I'm the guy who writes about it for free on the internet. Normally I try to show some restraint in assuming I'm smarter than the guy who's getting paid to decide but . . . just damn. Everyone in the baseball world can see this, it's not just me.
For starters, hitting a guy like Snider behind John Buck is foolishness but maybe, just maybe, that could be overlooked, at least initially. You'd just assume The Manager was sucked in by Buck's homer total last year. But hitting behind Gonzalez? There's simply no sanity to a move like that. it's hard to rant about it because it feels like trying to explain to you that the sky really is blue after all.
Secondly, I've heard all the giggles about how bad a Lind-Wells-Snider outfield would be, and possibly they are right. but isn't this write-off developmental season precisely the time when you settle the question of whether or not Snider can play a credible RF once and for all? Yeah, if we were trying to prove something in the win column, then by all means those marginal wins are to be taken seriously. but we're not, are we? I've seen the argument that it hurts the young pitching, but I don't think that, with proper coaching and communication, it has to. I'm of the opinion that a solid ground ball defense is what's key. We don't want our pitchers inducing a lot of fly outs anyway.
Bench:
John McDonald - Another verse, same as the first. Essentially a player-coach at this point
Jose Molina - Pitchers rave about throwing to him, should be good mentor for JPA eventually.
Randy Ruiz - I'm not totally sucked into the feel-good story, at least partly because I figure Clarance is going to screw it up anyway.
Mike McCoy - if all goes well, Joe Inglett 2.0, now with speed. Which is not a bad thing.
I won't extend this post to go into detail right now, but my quick & dirty analysis of this team, in terms of the potential for runs scored and allowed, makes it a slightly below .500 team on paper (irrespective of the multitude of forecasters openly speculating about 90+ loses) and I'm going to extend that a bit and suggest perhaps a bit of karma for all the years the under-preformed their expected results. I usually make my predictions with the understanding of +/- 3 wins, but I'll say up front that this prediction is at the top of that range. My usual prediction would be 80 wins (i.e. anywhere from 77 to 83) but I'm gonna call it 83 wins this time - with the caveat that that's my high-end guess.
I'll glance over the key minor leaguers in the next few days, as time permits.
Friday, 2 April 2010
Smiling Through the Pain
On the eve of the new season, a time in which o0ne ought to be full of joy that real baseball will soon by afoot, it seems that many Jays fans, including your humble host, find themselves squinting hard to look at the happy things and screen out the unpleasantness.
Already it has become a cliche and a byword to note the irrationality of Clarance Gaston, and yet, like Dick Griffin contemplating JP, we just can't turn away from so tempting a target.
But rather than throw off another short forgettable rant in a serious of rants about where i find fault, let me expand this post into something a bit more meaningful. Here's my review and preview of each member of the 25 man roster, plus a few bonus players who are relevant (such as those on the DL). Now that I think of it, I'll probably follow this post within a week with a similar look at key minor league prospects.
Shaun Marcum - There's little I can say here in some regards because I've been pretty clear I'm a believer. Maybe it's irrational optimism but I, for one, do not forsee him being hindered at all by his late surgery and recovery. I'm looking for him to be a staff leader, even without the "Ace" pedigree. A season something like what Jered Weaver had last year, if not better, is what I expect.
Brian Tallet - After a Twitter exchange with Jordan Bastian, and then reading his tweeted quote from Clarance, I find myself depressed/incensed about Tallet as the #2 more than any other issue save one. The Manager says that among the reasons Tallet is #2 is that they wanted the veterans at the front. Bastian tells me that contrary to what I though was an obvious conclusion, Tallet will not in fact be skipped on 4/6 and that means we're going to have a glorified long reliever starting the Home Opener. How depressing is THAT? Has no one considered that when you have the one guaranteed sellout of the year that you MIGHT want someone who's potentially a big part of the future starting instead of a stopgap makeshift starter? Jeez Louise.
I'd been hoping that Tallet would be out of the rotation by no later than mid-May but every time I think to myself "Be patient, it's only temporary" they go out and defy all logic.
Ricky Romero - One of my trademarks is to call people on the habit of writing off Jays players in a sort of pre-emptive negativist mentality, and I did that throughout Romero's minor league career while the legion was saying "we coulda had Tulo!"
Nevertheless, I have been trying all winter to remain rational about Romero's 2010 and had taken it as a base assumption that he'd need to work through some of his second half issues from last year before really being established. But there are a lot of reports saying that Romero took the winter to clear up that bit of business and that he looks primed for a big year. I'm a sucker for that sort of talk and so I've got one foot on the Romero bandwagon.
Brandon Morrow - when ask in a recent survey about which Jays would have a "breakout season" I had a two-word answer: Brandon Morrow. I would almost end this paragraph with "Nuf Said" but I will say one thing more - my only reservation here is whether or not the Jays will shut him down early because he doesn't have a history of a lot of innings in a year, or whether they will ride him out and hope it doesn't come back on them. My feeling is it will probably be the latter, but if it's the former, it might hinder the preception that Morrow has "leveled up" this year.
Dana Eveland - I'm treating him with basically zero expectations. We might luck out and get a "Towers '05" season out of him, or we might see him implode and be replaced by Cecil/Zep/McG by the end of May at the latest. A surprise season would be nice but we have enough potential alternatives that it matters very little if we get an implosion instead.
Jason Frasor - I'm gonna guess that we're going to see a big contract year push here. Frasor will make himself a fan favorite this year.
Scott Downs - Will do what he always does when healthy, and be very valuable doing it. Either of these too might get dealt in July though.
Kevin Gregg - While not possessed of the same sort of stuff, I think Gregg will make us all think of Billy Koch (and not in a good way) when and if he handles a save situation. I'm very pessimistic here, with the only hope I cling to being that Walton can show him how to maximize his best tendencies.
Jesse Carlson - opens the year on the DL simply because he needs a couple of weeks to build up some innings. I expect he'll do very well this year (he really wasn't as bad as most think last year - 3 or 4 VERY bad outings skewed the final line) as long as The Manager doesn't abuse him.
Casey Janssen - I look for big things here, if we didn'thave so much young pitching coming I'd be raising hell that he wasn't the one in the rotation instead of Tallet, but I figure the tide of youth is gonna displace a couple of guys anyway so Janssen might as well stake out some turf here. Hopefully he can regulate Gregg to the mop-up innings if Clarance will give him the chance.
Shawn Camp - smarter analysts than me have pointed out just how much Camp has improved as a Blue Jay as opposed to his previous work. Last spring I dismissed Camp as a player who should have been non-tendered, and I will not be so disrespectful again given his work in 2009. But that said, I can't be irrational enough to suggest that no one in the bullpen will regress. I don't think Camp will be as good as 2009, but he'll provide fine yeoman's work out of the bullpen in the shadow of other higher profile pitchers.
Merkin Valdez - I have no clue. The Jays seem to really like his arm. But whether he'll run with the chance or flounder in an "undefined role" is anyone's guess.
Jeremy Accardo - Won a reprieve, despite not really running with any opportunities in the spring. I'm on record as believing he's a good pitcher and an asset, but whether or not he gets a chance to be one for the Jays is a matter of grave doubt. I'm pretty convinced his days in our organization are coming quickly to an end. I'd go so far as to suggest that the main reason for his non-demotion had to do with maintaining some small trade value. Still, he's on a very short clock because he's the obvious potential victim of Carlson's impending recall.
David Purcey - Reports from Jays' bigwigs are that all the right people are mightily impressed by Purcey the Reliever (as opposed to Purcey the failed starter). Someone reported that JP had concluded that Purcey didn't have what it took to be a starter "between the ears" and apparently he's not alone in that opinion. On the other hand, a few whispers are beginning to circulate that his two-pitch reliever incarnation might even be good enough to invoke the word "closer." not that the Jays don't have a few alternatives, but don't be shocked if it's Purcey who inherits that job when Frasor is gone.
Brett Cecil - Did everything right done the stretch in ST, and deserved to make the rotation. No one has invoked the "service time" issue here, but it might be in play. Reportedly Cecil was told that he'd be the first starter called wen the Jays needed someone. My bet is when he arrives next time, it will be to stay. Mike Wilner, for one, says that he was commanding late in the spring and looked like a top of the rotation guy, not just a plug in.
Marc Rzepzynski - His injury will keep him out six weeks, my guess is that Cecil is up before that time and Zep might spent a few weeks beyond his recovery date biding his time in AAA. That kind of depends on how well Eveland fares, and on how quickly McGowan progresses. He also has to look over his shoulder a bit at Drabek. I like Zep a lot, even though he's the "trendy" pick this spring. But even so, his window of opportunity is limited. The injury could be career altering, even though it's not real serious.
Dustin McGowan - no way to predict. Still might very well be done if his velocity doesn't come back (think about the perennial failed attempts to come back by Mark Mulder), still might yet step up and be a giant among men, however briefly (think Chris Carpenter). It's anyone's guess.
Scott Richmond - might be the forgotten man by the time he recovers.
Jesse Litsch - Jays can afford to go real slow with him. Will be difficult for him to get back into the mix if others play up to their potential. Might be more convenient to give him the whole season off even if he doesn't really need it.
Josh Roenicke - like Cecil, promised he'd be the first man called should there be a bullpen need. A presumptive future closer, the best thing he can do is just kick AAA ass and not worry about the depth in front of him. It's a pretty good problem to have if you have a guy as good as Roenicke is pushed back to Las Vegas because you are so deep.
Due to length, I'm going to make a snap decision to put the hitters in a separate post. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.
Already it has become a cliche and a byword to note the irrationality of Clarance Gaston, and yet, like Dick Griffin contemplating JP, we just can't turn away from so tempting a target.
But rather than throw off another short forgettable rant in a serious of rants about where i find fault, let me expand this post into something a bit more meaningful. Here's my review and preview of each member of the 25 man roster, plus a few bonus players who are relevant (such as those on the DL). Now that I think of it, I'll probably follow this post within a week with a similar look at key minor league prospects.
Shaun Marcum - There's little I can say here in some regards because I've been pretty clear I'm a believer. Maybe it's irrational optimism but I, for one, do not forsee him being hindered at all by his late surgery and recovery. I'm looking for him to be a staff leader, even without the "Ace" pedigree. A season something like what Jered Weaver had last year, if not better, is what I expect.
Brian Tallet - After a Twitter exchange with Jordan Bastian, and then reading his tweeted quote from Clarance, I find myself depressed/incensed about Tallet as the #2 more than any other issue save one. The Manager says that among the reasons Tallet is #2 is that they wanted the veterans at the front. Bastian tells me that contrary to what I though was an obvious conclusion, Tallet will not in fact be skipped on 4/6 and that means we're going to have a glorified long reliever starting the Home Opener. How depressing is THAT? Has no one considered that when you have the one guaranteed sellout of the year that you MIGHT want someone who's potentially a big part of the future starting instead of a stopgap makeshift starter? Jeez Louise.
I'd been hoping that Tallet would be out of the rotation by no later than mid-May but every time I think to myself "Be patient, it's only temporary" they go out and defy all logic.
Ricky Romero - One of my trademarks is to call people on the habit of writing off Jays players in a sort of pre-emptive negativist mentality, and I did that throughout Romero's minor league career while the legion was saying "we coulda had Tulo!"
Nevertheless, I have been trying all winter to remain rational about Romero's 2010 and had taken it as a base assumption that he'd need to work through some of his second half issues from last year before really being established. But there are a lot of reports saying that Romero took the winter to clear up that bit of business and that he looks primed for a big year. I'm a sucker for that sort of talk and so I've got one foot on the Romero bandwagon.
Brandon Morrow - when ask in a recent survey about which Jays would have a "breakout season" I had a two-word answer: Brandon Morrow. I would almost end this paragraph with "Nuf Said" but I will say one thing more - my only reservation here is whether or not the Jays will shut him down early because he doesn't have a history of a lot of innings in a year, or whether they will ride him out and hope it doesn't come back on them. My feeling is it will probably be the latter, but if it's the former, it might hinder the preception that Morrow has "leveled up" this year.
Dana Eveland - I'm treating him with basically zero expectations. We might luck out and get a "Towers '05" season out of him, or we might see him implode and be replaced by Cecil/Zep/McG by the end of May at the latest. A surprise season would be nice but we have enough potential alternatives that it matters very little if we get an implosion instead.
Jason Frasor - I'm gonna guess that we're going to see a big contract year push here. Frasor will make himself a fan favorite this year.
Scott Downs - Will do what he always does when healthy, and be very valuable doing it. Either of these too might get dealt in July though.
Kevin Gregg - While not possessed of the same sort of stuff, I think Gregg will make us all think of Billy Koch (and not in a good way) when and if he handles a save situation. I'm very pessimistic here, with the only hope I cling to being that Walton can show him how to maximize his best tendencies.
Jesse Carlson - opens the year on the DL simply because he needs a couple of weeks to build up some innings. I expect he'll do very well this year (he really wasn't as bad as most think last year - 3 or 4 VERY bad outings skewed the final line) as long as The Manager doesn't abuse him.
Casey Janssen - I look for big things here, if we didn'thave so much young pitching coming I'd be raising hell that he wasn't the one in the rotation instead of Tallet, but I figure the tide of youth is gonna displace a couple of guys anyway so Janssen might as well stake out some turf here. Hopefully he can regulate Gregg to the mop-up innings if Clarance will give him the chance.
Shawn Camp - smarter analysts than me have pointed out just how much Camp has improved as a Blue Jay as opposed to his previous work. Last spring I dismissed Camp as a player who should have been non-tendered, and I will not be so disrespectful again given his work in 2009. But that said, I can't be irrational enough to suggest that no one in the bullpen will regress. I don't think Camp will be as good as 2009, but he'll provide fine yeoman's work out of the bullpen in the shadow of other higher profile pitchers.
Merkin Valdez - I have no clue. The Jays seem to really like his arm. But whether he'll run with the chance or flounder in an "undefined role" is anyone's guess.
Jeremy Accardo - Won a reprieve, despite not really running with any opportunities in the spring. I'm on record as believing he's a good pitcher and an asset, but whether or not he gets a chance to be one for the Jays is a matter of grave doubt. I'm pretty convinced his days in our organization are coming quickly to an end. I'd go so far as to suggest that the main reason for his non-demotion had to do with maintaining some small trade value. Still, he's on a very short clock because he's the obvious potential victim of Carlson's impending recall.
David Purcey - Reports from Jays' bigwigs are that all the right people are mightily impressed by Purcey the Reliever (as opposed to Purcey the failed starter). Someone reported that JP had concluded that Purcey didn't have what it took to be a starter "between the ears" and apparently he's not alone in that opinion. On the other hand, a few whispers are beginning to circulate that his two-pitch reliever incarnation might even be good enough to invoke the word "closer." not that the Jays don't have a few alternatives, but don't be shocked if it's Purcey who inherits that job when Frasor is gone.
Brett Cecil - Did everything right done the stretch in ST, and deserved to make the rotation. No one has invoked the "service time" issue here, but it might be in play. Reportedly Cecil was told that he'd be the first starter called wen the Jays needed someone. My bet is when he arrives next time, it will be to stay. Mike Wilner, for one, says that he was commanding late in the spring and looked like a top of the rotation guy, not just a plug in.
Marc Rzepzynski - His injury will keep him out six weeks, my guess is that Cecil is up before that time and Zep might spent a few weeks beyond his recovery date biding his time in AAA. That kind of depends on how well Eveland fares, and on how quickly McGowan progresses. He also has to look over his shoulder a bit at Drabek. I like Zep a lot, even though he's the "trendy" pick this spring. But even so, his window of opportunity is limited. The injury could be career altering, even though it's not real serious.
Dustin McGowan - no way to predict. Still might very well be done if his velocity doesn't come back (think about the perennial failed attempts to come back by Mark Mulder), still might yet step up and be a giant among men, however briefly (think Chris Carpenter). It's anyone's guess.
Scott Richmond - might be the forgotten man by the time he recovers.
Jesse Litsch - Jays can afford to go real slow with him. Will be difficult for him to get back into the mix if others play up to their potential. Might be more convenient to give him the whole season off even if he doesn't really need it.
Josh Roenicke - like Cecil, promised he'd be the first man called should there be a bullpen need. A presumptive future closer, the best thing he can do is just kick AAA ass and not worry about the depth in front of him. It's a pretty good problem to have if you have a guy as good as Roenicke is pushed back to Las Vegas because you are so deep.
Due to length, I'm going to make a snap decision to put the hitters in a separate post. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.
Thursday, 1 April 2010
Update to the Update
According to Morgan Campbell, via Twitter, Cecil and Roenicke are being dispatched to Vegas.
That means Eveland and Tallet in the rotation and Accardo and Valdez in the bullpen (until Carlson get's his innings in - two weeks at most).
A lot of popular sentiment had been that Cecil had pitched well enough to earn a spot. His job now is to maintain a positive attitude and not get pissed and distracted by the demotion. He can go down to Vegas and force the team's hand if he stays focused. He's on the clock too. He needs to make that case BEFORE Zep (and McGowan) get's healthy and ready to pitch. But then, my guess is that Tallet and possibly Eveland as well will help make the case for the kids in time. They might start off well, but I think they will be exposed over time.
The other thing here is Accardo. As much as I'm ready to watch Cecil grow, I'm happy Accardo avoided the "options" shaft for now. Of course, Clarance can still let him sit out there and rust so that being in the majors will do him little good, but hopefully he can focus (without trying TOO hard) and at least make himself more attractive to teams looking for bullpen help when he does get out there.
That means Eveland and Tallet in the rotation and Accardo and Valdez in the bullpen (until Carlson get's his innings in - two weeks at most).
A lot of popular sentiment had been that Cecil had pitched well enough to earn a spot. His job now is to maintain a positive attitude and not get pissed and distracted by the demotion. He can go down to Vegas and force the team's hand if he stays focused. He's on the clock too. He needs to make that case BEFORE Zep (and McGowan) get's healthy and ready to pitch. But then, my guess is that Tallet and possibly Eveland as well will help make the case for the kids in time. They might start off well, but I think they will be exposed over time.
The other thing here is Accardo. As much as I'm ready to watch Cecil grow, I'm happy Accardo avoided the "options" shaft for now. Of course, Clarance can still let him sit out there and rust so that being in the majors will do him little good, but hopefully he can focus (without trying TOO hard) and at least make himself more attractive to teams looking for bullpen help when he does get out there.
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
That was fast
Figures. When I finally break down and get "in depth" they turn around and prove me wrong.
As you probably know by now the Jays optioned Reed, Purcey and Jesse Carlson to the AAA team today. Anthopoulos explains that Carlson simply needs more innings to be ready. While he obviously didn't give anything else away, my quick read on this is that it means one of Eveland or Tallet will be in the bullpen to open the season and one of the kids will be in the rotation. Assuming of course that they make a priority of having two lefties.
Update: Bastian tweets that Zep has a fractured finger. Thus he's out for at least six weeks. That leaves Eveland, Tallet, and Cecil for two spots. And if both the vets are in the rotation, then there's a chance the jays either go with only one LH reliever until Carlson is ready (good news for Accardo) or have to recal Purcey yo fill that role. personally, as much as I think the logic of having stopgap vets in the rotation is sound, I can't help but have an emotional interest in Cecil making the rotation now, with Tallet in the pen.
As you probably know by now the Jays optioned Reed, Purcey and Jesse Carlson to the AAA team today. Anthopoulos explains that Carlson simply needs more innings to be ready. While he obviously didn't give anything else away, my quick read on this is that it means one of Eveland or Tallet will be in the bullpen to open the season and one of the kids will be in the rotation. Assuming of course that they make a priority of having two lefties.
Update: Bastian tweets that Zep has a fractured finger. Thus he's out for at least six weeks. That leaves Eveland, Tallet, and Cecil for two spots. And if both the vets are in the rotation, then there's a chance the jays either go with only one LH reliever until Carlson is ready (good news for Accardo) or have to recal Purcey yo fill that role. personally, as much as I think the logic of having stopgap vets in the rotation is sound, I can't help but have an emotional interest in Cecil making the rotation now, with Tallet in the pen.
Monday, 29 March 2010
Brass Tacks
Well it's one week out now, and what do we know?
Not as much as you'd have expected but still, more than maybe you'd think. Let's review the safe assumptions about the major league roster, even though these conclusions are easily found elsewhere:
Catchers: John Buck and Jose Molina. given that Raul Chavez isn't playing with the major league team at all, it's a given he doesn't make the cut.
Infielders: Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion (if not on the DL) John McDonald, Randy Ruiz and Mike McCoy.
Outfielders: Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Adam Lind (really a DH but you get the idea).
If EE starts on the DL, add Jeremy Reed.
That's pretty much set, with the only minor question being the reversal of McCoy and Reed. It's on the pitching side that things get more uncertain. Let's look at the rotation first. Marcum at #1 and Romero at #2 is written in ink at this point. What comes after is less certain. For those three spots are at least five candidates:
Brandon Morrow - if he does well and makes it through five innings in Houston, he's in at #3. if he has a setback it's off to the DL;
Dana Eveland - has steadily pushed his way into consideration with an excellent spring;
Brian Tallet - Clarance's boy, hasn't had an impressive spring but veteran guys who have made the team often enjoy a lot of leeway on that, also a proven commodity in the bullpen;
Marc Rzep - Had an up and down spring, came into camp is a favorite of the manager but is also young enough to not be insulted by a AAA assignment to start the year;
Brett Cecil - came into camp with a presumptive future in Vegas to open the season but has impressed the right people;
Dustin McGowan - has been shut down for two week insuring he starts on the DL and won't see Toronto before May at the very earliest.
There are a number of ways one could look at this competition. First, lets concede the #3 spot to Morrow and note that the best of the guys we'd otherwise eliminate gets to step in if he has to hit the DL. For the other two spots you have several potential combinations.
Scenario A: Conclude that in terms of both the learning curve and service time, the future is best served by the kids being in Vegas and put Eveland and Tallet in the rotation.
Scenario B: Conclude that the kids learn best in the majors and send the older guys off to the bullpen.
Scenario C: go with the best spring performances, thus Eveland and Cecil. Zep goes to AAA and Tallet to the 'pen.
Scenario D: Entertain trade offers for one of the older guys from a team thin on pitching. Let the dominoes fall as they will thereafter.
We really don't have many clues here, but based on AA's seeming "build for the future" philosophy, and my conclusion that Tallet is probably a placeholder anyway, and the instinct that Eveland would build value by posting regular season success as a starter - I'll take a flier on Scenario A and base the rest of this projection on that event.
What we gain here is that we don't lose Eveland (since he's out of options) to waivers, and we reduce the bottleneck on the bullpen jobs which likewise helps maintain some depth - at least until someone pushes Tallet out of the rotation (which is bound to happen).
In the bullpen, we've been told from day one that Frasor, Gregg, and Downs are the only locks but as long as his knee is fine (which it seems to be) Carlson is pretty much a given as well. Shawn Camp did such good work for Clarence last year that he'd have had to pitch himself out of the pen and he hasn't. Those five are pretty easy calls. That leaves two jobs and the following competitors (assuming the aforementioned rotation):
Merkin Valdez - Reading the stat page gives us no real info about how well he's done this spring, a sample size of six innings has little relevance anyway. What we do know is that he's out of options, a fact to which which the Jays are paying attention. At the very least, he holds a tie-breaker;
Casey Janssen - Like all the relievers in camp, he's thrown very few innings (at least in games that "count" on the stat page), but the reviews have been universally favorable. His problem? He has an option left;
Josh Roenicke - generally listed as a candidate, in reality having the least major league experience and the most options, he'd have had to have been a monster to be a real candidate;
David Purcey - seems to be destined for a bullpen role, but still raw in that capacity. Purcey might conceivably evolve into an intimidating late-inning lefty, maybe even a closer (for someone) but for now, his newness to the role and his remaining option puts him in the role of long-shot. this would change in a hurry if Downs were traded since he'd then benefit from his left-handedness;
Jeremy Accardo - has an option, and had a so-so spring, which also puts him in a dis-favorable position for making the team. if I may digress a bit here, for all the talk of teams looking at Frasor and Downs (quality acquisitions to be sure) I have to wonder if the guy most likely to be traded is Accardo. If you are the Twins, for instance, and looking to increase your resources in terms of the closers role, but were unwilling to pony up a real prospect for Frasor or Downs, who wouldn't you take a long look at a guy like Accardo?
Granted, he had a limited opportunity last year and some control problems in his limited major league appearances but he was also pretty thoroughly jerked around. Barring some health or "stuff" issue (of which none are reported) this is still the guy who was astonishingly good as a full time closer in 2007. That isn't worth anything to the Twins? or the Cubs? Maybe I'm letting sentiment cloud my vision here but I, for one, would hate to see Accardo become the forgotten man again.
Realistically, I think the Jays will gamble that Valdez gives them something and hang on to him out of camp, given the likelihood of losing him. Out of the other four, the buzz is all about Janssen.
So - to this point I've pretty much repeated that which you could have already gotten (and probably have) from Jordan Bastian and a number of others, but here's the next step - how do these decisions impact the minor league rosters?
Here's my guess:
Las Vegas-
Catchers: JP Arencibia, Raul Chavez
First: Brett Wallace, Brian Dopirack(DH)
Second: Jarrett Hoffpauir, Calix Crabbe (no idea who starts)
Short: Jesus Merchan
Third: Brad Emaus (I've seen suggestions he'd go back to third this year - which I think is a VERY good idea...I've also seen suggestions he'd start at New Hampshire but I'm hoping not. If he does, I make Phillips the starting 3B)
Outfield: Chris Lubanski, Jeremy Reed, Aaron Matthews, Jorge Padilla
Utility: Kyle Phillips (C, 3B, DH, 1B)
SP: Cecil, Zep, Brad Mills, Zach Stewart, Robert Ray
RP: Roenicke, Accardo (if not dealt), Purcey, Randy Boone, Sean Henn, Zach Jackson and one more from three or four competitors, the rest of whom will probably be cut)
New Hampshire (just starters for the hitters from here on) -
C: Brian Jeroloman
1B: David Cooper
2B: Scott Campbell
SS: Adenis Hechevarria (not at first, it's so late he'll need extended ST first but when he's ready to play)
3B: Bryan Kervin?
OF: Eric Thames, Darin Mastorianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen (one of these doing being a DH most days)
SP: Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, Andrew Liebel, Ray Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez
RP: Danny Farquhar, Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, Celson Polanco, couple of other unimportant filler types
Dunedin -
C - Travis d'Arnoud
1B: Jon Talley (playing a hunch here, given the catching depth)
2B: John Tolisano
SS: Justin Jackson
3B: Kevin Aherns
OF: Wellinton Ramirez, Brian Van Kirk, Brad McElroy
SP: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alverez, Bobby Bell, Chuck Huggins, Joel Cerano?
RP: anyone's guess, really, there's too little info.
I'm sure folks are asking themselves "Where's Pastornicky?" - my guess is he goes back to Lansing until the SS bottleneck clears up. He didn't exactly own the Midwest league, he's young, and he needs to be playing his natural position every day. Most of the other better prospects are not really in a position to be at Dunedin yet so beyond the SS issue, there's not too much conflict on that. Predicting the rosters below Hi-A is a fools errand, there's just too much I don't know.
I know this - I'm as excited about these minor league teams as I am about the Jays. the word for the year is "youth" and each of those three rosters features at least eight guys I'll be watching from afar this year.
Let's get started, eh?
Not as much as you'd have expected but still, more than maybe you'd think. Let's review the safe assumptions about the major league roster, even though these conclusions are easily found elsewhere:
Catchers: John Buck and Jose Molina. given that Raul Chavez isn't playing with the major league team at all, it's a given he doesn't make the cut.
Infielders: Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion (if not on the DL) John McDonald, Randy Ruiz and Mike McCoy.
Outfielders: Vernon Wells, Travis Snider, Jose Bautista, and Adam Lind (really a DH but you get the idea).
If EE starts on the DL, add Jeremy Reed.
That's pretty much set, with the only minor question being the reversal of McCoy and Reed. It's on the pitching side that things get more uncertain. Let's look at the rotation first. Marcum at #1 and Romero at #2 is written in ink at this point. What comes after is less certain. For those three spots are at least five candidates:
Brandon Morrow - if he does well and makes it through five innings in Houston, he's in at #3. if he has a setback it's off to the DL;
Dana Eveland - has steadily pushed his way into consideration with an excellent spring;
Brian Tallet - Clarance's boy, hasn't had an impressive spring but veteran guys who have made the team often enjoy a lot of leeway on that, also a proven commodity in the bullpen;
Marc Rzep - Had an up and down spring, came into camp is a favorite of the manager but is also young enough to not be insulted by a AAA assignment to start the year;
Brett Cecil - came into camp with a presumptive future in Vegas to open the season but has impressed the right people;
Dustin McGowan - has been shut down for two week insuring he starts on the DL and won't see Toronto before May at the very earliest.
There are a number of ways one could look at this competition. First, lets concede the #3 spot to Morrow and note that the best of the guys we'd otherwise eliminate gets to step in if he has to hit the DL. For the other two spots you have several potential combinations.
Scenario A: Conclude that in terms of both the learning curve and service time, the future is best served by the kids being in Vegas and put Eveland and Tallet in the rotation.
Scenario B: Conclude that the kids learn best in the majors and send the older guys off to the bullpen.
Scenario C: go with the best spring performances, thus Eveland and Cecil. Zep goes to AAA and Tallet to the 'pen.
Scenario D: Entertain trade offers for one of the older guys from a team thin on pitching. Let the dominoes fall as they will thereafter.
We really don't have many clues here, but based on AA's seeming "build for the future" philosophy, and my conclusion that Tallet is probably a placeholder anyway, and the instinct that Eveland would build value by posting regular season success as a starter - I'll take a flier on Scenario A and base the rest of this projection on that event.
What we gain here is that we don't lose Eveland (since he's out of options) to waivers, and we reduce the bottleneck on the bullpen jobs which likewise helps maintain some depth - at least until someone pushes Tallet out of the rotation (which is bound to happen).
In the bullpen, we've been told from day one that Frasor, Gregg, and Downs are the only locks but as long as his knee is fine (which it seems to be) Carlson is pretty much a given as well. Shawn Camp did such good work for Clarence last year that he'd have had to pitch himself out of the pen and he hasn't. Those five are pretty easy calls. That leaves two jobs and the following competitors (assuming the aforementioned rotation):
Merkin Valdez - Reading the stat page gives us no real info about how well he's done this spring, a sample size of six innings has little relevance anyway. What we do know is that he's out of options, a fact to which which the Jays are paying attention. At the very least, he holds a tie-breaker;
Casey Janssen - Like all the relievers in camp, he's thrown very few innings (at least in games that "count" on the stat page), but the reviews have been universally favorable. His problem? He has an option left;
Josh Roenicke - generally listed as a candidate, in reality having the least major league experience and the most options, he'd have had to have been a monster to be a real candidate;
David Purcey - seems to be destined for a bullpen role, but still raw in that capacity. Purcey might conceivably evolve into an intimidating late-inning lefty, maybe even a closer (for someone) but for now, his newness to the role and his remaining option puts him in the role of long-shot. this would change in a hurry if Downs were traded since he'd then benefit from his left-handedness;
Jeremy Accardo - has an option, and had a so-so spring, which also puts him in a dis-favorable position for making the team. if I may digress a bit here, for all the talk of teams looking at Frasor and Downs (quality acquisitions to be sure) I have to wonder if the guy most likely to be traded is Accardo. If you are the Twins, for instance, and looking to increase your resources in terms of the closers role, but were unwilling to pony up a real prospect for Frasor or Downs, who wouldn't you take a long look at a guy like Accardo?
Granted, he had a limited opportunity last year and some control problems in his limited major league appearances but he was also pretty thoroughly jerked around. Barring some health or "stuff" issue (of which none are reported) this is still the guy who was astonishingly good as a full time closer in 2007. That isn't worth anything to the Twins? or the Cubs? Maybe I'm letting sentiment cloud my vision here but I, for one, would hate to see Accardo become the forgotten man again.
Realistically, I think the Jays will gamble that Valdez gives them something and hang on to him out of camp, given the likelihood of losing him. Out of the other four, the buzz is all about Janssen.
So - to this point I've pretty much repeated that which you could have already gotten (and probably have) from Jordan Bastian and a number of others, but here's the next step - how do these decisions impact the minor league rosters?
Here's my guess:
Las Vegas-
Catchers: JP Arencibia, Raul Chavez
First: Brett Wallace, Brian Dopirack(DH)
Second: Jarrett Hoffpauir, Calix Crabbe (no idea who starts)
Short: Jesus Merchan
Third: Brad Emaus (I've seen suggestions he'd go back to third this year - which I think is a VERY good idea...I've also seen suggestions he'd start at New Hampshire but I'm hoping not. If he does, I make Phillips the starting 3B)
Outfield: Chris Lubanski, Jeremy Reed, Aaron Matthews, Jorge Padilla
Utility: Kyle Phillips (C, 3B, DH, 1B)
SP: Cecil, Zep, Brad Mills, Zach Stewart, Robert Ray
RP: Roenicke, Accardo (if not dealt), Purcey, Randy Boone, Sean Henn, Zach Jackson and one more from three or four competitors, the rest of whom will probably be cut)
New Hampshire (just starters for the hitters from here on) -
C: Brian Jeroloman
1B: David Cooper
2B: Scott Campbell
SS: Adenis Hechevarria (not at first, it's so late he'll need extended ST first but when he's ready to play)
3B: Bryan Kervin?
OF: Eric Thames, Darin Mastorianni, Moises Sierra, Adam Loewen (one of these doing being a DH most days)
SP: Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, Andrew Liebel, Ray Gonzalez, Kenny Rodriguez
RP: Danny Farquhar, Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, Celson Polanco, couple of other unimportant filler types
Dunedin -
C - Travis d'Arnoud
1B: Jon Talley (playing a hunch here, given the catching depth)
2B: John Tolisano
SS: Justin Jackson
3B: Kevin Aherns
OF: Wellinton Ramirez, Brian Van Kirk, Brad McElroy
SP: Chad Jenkins, Henderson Alverez, Bobby Bell, Chuck Huggins, Joel Cerano?
RP: anyone's guess, really, there's too little info.
I'm sure folks are asking themselves "Where's Pastornicky?" - my guess is he goes back to Lansing until the SS bottleneck clears up. He didn't exactly own the Midwest league, he's young, and he needs to be playing his natural position every day. Most of the other better prospects are not really in a position to be at Dunedin yet so beyond the SS issue, there's not too much conflict on that. Predicting the rosters below Hi-A is a fools errand, there's just too much I don't know.
I know this - I'm as excited about these minor league teams as I am about the Jays. the word for the year is "youth" and each of those three rosters features at least eight guys I'll be watching from afar this year.
Let's get started, eh?
Tuesday, 23 March 2010
Days of Our Clarance
I've exercised considerable restraint in not commenting on the machinations of our manager from day to day by reminding myself "it's just spring training" but as we draw ever nearer to Opening Day (less than two weeks out!) the accumulation of observations is such that I feel I'm neglecting my duties to not make at least passing reference to them. So, here are a few highlights:
1. Brian Tallet as starter. Maybe no one in the Jays fanbase is any more appreciative of the value of Brian Tallet as a reliever. but using him in the rotation when you don't have to is bad on several counts.
First, he's simply not a very good pitcher as a starter, at least not here. If he were in San Diego maybe, or Washington, he might carve out himself a nice little Doug Davis type career.
Second, he's not part of the future and thus, for potential trade situations, his value ought be maximized by being used in his best role.
Third, this is a season for seeing what we have among the kids. That means not falling in love with someone the way Clarance is apparently fawning over Tallet for no real reason. Sure, one can argue that none of Cecil or Mills or whoever is ready for that spot - and that McGowan clearly isn't up to full speed. If The Manager had said "Tallet will hold down that spot until one of the kids pushes for it or McGowan is right" then fine. But even then, Dana Eveland is just as able, is more expendable when that day comes, and Tallet can continue to build value in a role he does well.
2. He's Apparently developing the same fascination with John Buck. Don't get me wrong, I don't presume to have a negative opinion of Buck as a defender but come on - how senile do you have to be to think he's a good hitter. Yet have you noticed how high Buck's been showing up in the ST lineups? Yesterday vs the Tigers he hit sixth - ahead of Randy Ruiz (whom Clarance lavishes praise on) and Travis Snider. Fluke? Nope. Only once in the last two weeks has Buck appeared in a game hitting behind Ruiz and never behind Snider. I know Snider apparently pissed in Clarance's morning Metamucil or something but do we really have to witness the spectacle of such a weak hitter supplanting him? Heck, there have been games this spring when Alex-freakin-Gonzalez hit ahead of Snider but that's kind of a different point.
3. Speaking of Snider. What is it with The Manager anyway? One of my fellow bloggers (can't remember for sure and too lazy to look) rightly pointed out recently just how VERY badly Clarance screwed over Shawn Green in favor of crotchety veterans in decline back in '97 and he seems determined to do a re-make this year with Snider. Does it even need pointing out that there is no long term value in protecting snider from lefties, hitting him ninth, or playing him in left this year?
Sure, maybe it's true that Lind can't play the outfield at all and Snider isn't a good RF - but what do we have to lose that we would otherwise have won in 2010 to FIND OUT? So what if we have the worst OF defense in the majors - at least we will KNOW with complete certainty next winter that we can't plan on doing that again when the team is expected to be good. There's no downside to finding that out.
Likewise, there is nothing at all to be gained by hitting Snider behind guys who are well known to be offensive black holes. It does nothing for his confidence, his ability to adjust, his ability to adapt to higher pressure situation, or his ability to hit situationally with people on base (which if you want that you don't want Buck and Gonzo in front of him).
4. The fascination with Gathright. Thankfully, on this point, he seems to have a growing affection for Mike McCoy (who is increasingly becoming a player I have an irrational attraction to myself) and Jeremy Reed (who sucks pretty much as much as Gathright but Clarance doesn't seem to have a crush on him so in that he's to be preferred) is outhitting JG by a wide margin. Still, it shouldn't take this much to dissuade someone from an interest in Gathright.
It IS true that if I had my way and Snider was in RF, we'd have some difficulty with the lead-off spot. but if I had my way, McCoy would be the starting shortstop until he proved himself incapable offensively or defensively and HE would be the lead-off hitter. Here's another situation in which in a developmental season, there's no reason not to think outside the box. Unless it is clearly obvious to Jays managment that McCoy is so defficent defensively as to do damage to our ground ball pitchers, then how can it possibly be a ba thing to run him out there and see if he can handle it?
5. The unanswered question at closer. I'm sorry, anyone who looks at Frasor's work and Gregg's work and has trouble deciding which should close (when both are healthy) automatically disqualifies themselves from making any baseball decisions. I can't see how anything more needs saying on that point.
How many of these issues are an issue when the regular season rolls around, I can't say - but I could no longer refrain.
1. Brian Tallet as starter. Maybe no one in the Jays fanbase is any more appreciative of the value of Brian Tallet as a reliever. but using him in the rotation when you don't have to is bad on several counts.
First, he's simply not a very good pitcher as a starter, at least not here. If he were in San Diego maybe, or Washington, he might carve out himself a nice little Doug Davis type career.
Second, he's not part of the future and thus, for potential trade situations, his value ought be maximized by being used in his best role.
Third, this is a season for seeing what we have among the kids. That means not falling in love with someone the way Clarance is apparently fawning over Tallet for no real reason. Sure, one can argue that none of Cecil or Mills or whoever is ready for that spot - and that McGowan clearly isn't up to full speed. If The Manager had said "Tallet will hold down that spot until one of the kids pushes for it or McGowan is right" then fine. But even then, Dana Eveland is just as able, is more expendable when that day comes, and Tallet can continue to build value in a role he does well.
2. He's Apparently developing the same fascination with John Buck. Don't get me wrong, I don't presume to have a negative opinion of Buck as a defender but come on - how senile do you have to be to think he's a good hitter. Yet have you noticed how high Buck's been showing up in the ST lineups? Yesterday vs the Tigers he hit sixth - ahead of Randy Ruiz (whom Clarance lavishes praise on) and Travis Snider. Fluke? Nope. Only once in the last two weeks has Buck appeared in a game hitting behind Ruiz and never behind Snider. I know Snider apparently pissed in Clarance's morning Metamucil or something but do we really have to witness the spectacle of such a weak hitter supplanting him? Heck, there have been games this spring when Alex-freakin-Gonzalez hit ahead of Snider but that's kind of a different point.
3. Speaking of Snider. What is it with The Manager anyway? One of my fellow bloggers (can't remember for sure and too lazy to look) rightly pointed out recently just how VERY badly Clarance screwed over Shawn Green in favor of crotchety veterans in decline back in '97 and he seems determined to do a re-make this year with Snider. Does it even need pointing out that there is no long term value in protecting snider from lefties, hitting him ninth, or playing him in left this year?
Sure, maybe it's true that Lind can't play the outfield at all and Snider isn't a good RF - but what do we have to lose that we would otherwise have won in 2010 to FIND OUT? So what if we have the worst OF defense in the majors - at least we will KNOW with complete certainty next winter that we can't plan on doing that again when the team is expected to be good. There's no downside to finding that out.
Likewise, there is nothing at all to be gained by hitting Snider behind guys who are well known to be offensive black holes. It does nothing for his confidence, his ability to adjust, his ability to adapt to higher pressure situation, or his ability to hit situationally with people on base (which if you want that you don't want Buck and Gonzo in front of him).
4. The fascination with Gathright. Thankfully, on this point, he seems to have a growing affection for Mike McCoy (who is increasingly becoming a player I have an irrational attraction to myself) and Jeremy Reed (who sucks pretty much as much as Gathright but Clarance doesn't seem to have a crush on him so in that he's to be preferred) is outhitting JG by a wide margin. Still, it shouldn't take this much to dissuade someone from an interest in Gathright.
It IS true that if I had my way and Snider was in RF, we'd have some difficulty with the lead-off spot. but if I had my way, McCoy would be the starting shortstop until he proved himself incapable offensively or defensively and HE would be the lead-off hitter. Here's another situation in which in a developmental season, there's no reason not to think outside the box. Unless it is clearly obvious to Jays managment that McCoy is so defficent defensively as to do damage to our ground ball pitchers, then how can it possibly be a ba thing to run him out there and see if he can handle it?
5. The unanswered question at closer. I'm sorry, anyone who looks at Frasor's work and Gregg's work and has trouble deciding which should close (when both are healthy) automatically disqualifies themselves from making any baseball decisions. I can't see how anything more needs saying on that point.
How many of these issues are an issue when the regular season rolls around, I can't say - but I could no longer refrain.
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Something to consider?
According to MLBTR the Nats have unconditionally released Elijah Dukes. He's experienced (if not great) in RF a and he's only 25. At first blush, it seems a slam dunk that Dukes would be a superior option to Gathright and Reed.
What am I missing here?
In 2008, ostensibly his breakout season, he was a 2.8 WAR player, making positive contributions on both offense and defense. Further, he hit well vs both RH and LH pitching, and had a high enough OBP that he could fit not unreasonably as a lead-off hitter.
If the Jays are committed to the idea that Snider will end up in LF, the chance to grab a guy who might turn into the RF solution until Sierra or some other prospect comes along would seem a no-brainer.
That said, the report suggested that the Nats tried to trade him to pretty much anyone and came up short. You can't help but wonder why a team like the Jays wouldn't have spared a marginal reliever or some such just to get a first shot at seeing what he's got. If all it costs us is Steve Stifole or something, where's the harm?
Again, what am I missing here?
What am I missing here?
In 2008, ostensibly his breakout season, he was a 2.8 WAR player, making positive contributions on both offense and defense. Further, he hit well vs both RH and LH pitching, and had a high enough OBP that he could fit not unreasonably as a lead-off hitter.
If the Jays are committed to the idea that Snider will end up in LF, the chance to grab a guy who might turn into the RF solution until Sierra or some other prospect comes along would seem a no-brainer.
That said, the report suggested that the Nats tried to trade him to pretty much anyone and came up short. You can't help but wonder why a team like the Jays wouldn't have spared a marginal reliever or some such just to get a first shot at seeing what he's got. If all it costs us is Steve Stifole or something, where's the harm?
Again, what am I missing here?
Sunday, 14 March 2010
More Alphabet Soup!
As I suggested in this space almost three weeks ago, Alex Anthopoulos made his play for coveted Cuban defector shortstop Adenis Hechavarria, and if reports are true, he has apparently been successful, and not only that - successful in signing a player the Yankees wanted pretty intently.
I can't tell you how pleased I am about the signing, but the fact that he picked the Jays over the Yankees is like a warm sweet syrup poured all over the top.
He's been compared to such Luminaries as Alphonso Soriano and Ichero Suzuki. His defense is said to be better than former teammate and current Red sox prospect Jose Iglesias who has been described as a world class defender.
The only fly in this story is that apparently Hec (gotta have a nickname for a name that hard to spell!) is 21, not 19 as was previously reported. But even that might not be so bad, theoretically it might mean he's closer to the bigs. the problem we have is that ideally you'd start a guy like this at Dunedin. Both the level of competition and the weather works for you there.
but the Jays already have two of their three best SS prospects tentatively at the High A level, and Farm Director Tony LaCava says the Jays will put a guy where he belongs, not push him because he's "supposed" to be promoted.
So what to do? Well, bumping Tyler Pastornicky back to Lansing is a relatively easy call. He's just turned 20 and while he did reach Dunedin last year, it was for a mere 63 at bats. It's not like he owned Lo-A either. At Lansing his BA was .266 and his OBP (hes no slugger so we won't speak of that) was only .331, so let's dispense with the illusion he is somehow entitled to a promotion.
the other presumptive Dunedin shortstop is personal favorite Justin Jackson. Jackson was sidelined most of the second half of last season by a shoulder injury. the same injury which possibly contributed to his horrendous stat line for the Hi-A Jays last year. My thought here is that you hold Jackson in extended Spring Training in order to see if he's all the way back from the injury and work on his mechanics. Let Hec start the year in Dunedin with an eye towards promoting him to AA in Early May at which time Jackson gets activated.
This is just my speculation, I have no idea how it will play out.
In fact, it's probably time I admitted that the reports are as yet unconfirmed that he will in fact sign with the Jays, but hey, you know what I mean.
Looking ahead a few years you could see a 2013 lineup that included Hill, Lind, Snider, Wallace, Hec, and one or both of D'Arnoud and Arencibia (one wonders who might be shifted to 3B in the upcoming years if Alex doesn't make a trade for one). that's a pretty solid (potentially) offensive core to go along with considerable depth of talent on the mound.
What's not to like!?
I can't tell you how pleased I am about the signing, but the fact that he picked the Jays over the Yankees is like a warm sweet syrup poured all over the top.
He's been compared to such Luminaries as Alphonso Soriano and Ichero Suzuki. His defense is said to be better than former teammate and current Red sox prospect Jose Iglesias who has been described as a world class defender.
The only fly in this story is that apparently Hec (gotta have a nickname for a name that hard to spell!) is 21, not 19 as was previously reported. But even that might not be so bad, theoretically it might mean he's closer to the bigs. the problem we have is that ideally you'd start a guy like this at Dunedin. Both the level of competition and the weather works for you there.
but the Jays already have two of their three best SS prospects tentatively at the High A level, and Farm Director Tony LaCava says the Jays will put a guy where he belongs, not push him because he's "supposed" to be promoted.
So what to do? Well, bumping Tyler Pastornicky back to Lansing is a relatively easy call. He's just turned 20 and while he did reach Dunedin last year, it was for a mere 63 at bats. It's not like he owned Lo-A either. At Lansing his BA was .266 and his OBP (hes no slugger so we won't speak of that) was only .331, so let's dispense with the illusion he is somehow entitled to a promotion.
the other presumptive Dunedin shortstop is personal favorite Justin Jackson. Jackson was sidelined most of the second half of last season by a shoulder injury. the same injury which possibly contributed to his horrendous stat line for the Hi-A Jays last year. My thought here is that you hold Jackson in extended Spring Training in order to see if he's all the way back from the injury and work on his mechanics. Let Hec start the year in Dunedin with an eye towards promoting him to AA in Early May at which time Jackson gets activated.
This is just my speculation, I have no idea how it will play out.
In fact, it's probably time I admitted that the reports are as yet unconfirmed that he will in fact sign with the Jays, but hey, you know what I mean.
Looking ahead a few years you could see a 2013 lineup that included Hill, Lind, Snider, Wallace, Hec, and one or both of D'Arnoud and Arencibia (one wonders who might be shifted to 3B in the upcoming years if Alex doesn't make a trade for one). that's a pretty solid (potentially) offensive core to go along with considerable depth of talent on the mound.
What's not to like!?
Going Young
Probably no writer connected to the Jays swings as wildly from good sense to "WTF!?!" as Richard Griffin, and he catches his share of grief for the latter. But this time he does pretty well - well enough I want to steal the idea in order to modify it a bit.
Griffin proposes to look at what the Jays future roster would look like made up only of players born after January 1, 1984 but honestly, that's really just kind of a gimicky way to tie into a well known number. It has no specific baseball related relevance. So even though it's an interesting thought, he still kind of screwed it up looking for the hook.
So here's my modification: Lets agree that Aaron Hill is the new heartbeat of the team. with all due respect to Vernon, the burden of his contract undermines the idea this is "Wells' team" plus, he's old enough that the exercise is kind of silly if you set his age as the cutoff.
So, while noting that there's no way to move Wells for at least the next three seasons, let's say that he's the only guy on the team older than Hil (who is just about to turn 28).
So you'd lose, off the current group, the following -
Jose Bautista
Lyle Overbay
John McDonald
Mike McCoy
Alex Gonzalez
John Buck
Jose Molina
Merkin Valdez
Brian Tallet
Scott Richmond
Shaun Marcum
Casey Janssen
Dirk Hayhurst
Kevin Gregg
Jason Frasor
Scott Downs
Jesse Carlson
Shawn Camp
Jeremy Accardo
Okay hold it - let's make an exception for Marcum, he's about 3 months older than Hill so he can be the "senior" man on the pitching staff.
Otherwise, what you have there is a list of players who, no matter how good they are, are placeholders, or bridge players to the players who'll make up the next Jays contender. I have no problem, of course, letting some of the older guys stopgap - I'm not saying waive the lot of them. I'm just illustrating the idea that none of these guys are integral to the Jays' medium range future. Even though some of them were late enough getting to the majors they might well still be here in 2012 (such as Jesse Carlson).
With few exceptions, if any, there's a clear picture here of guys who are only keeping a spot warm for younger players to come (Accardo and Camp give way to Collins and Farquhar for instance, or Buck and Molina holding a spot for Arencibia)
Like many others, I'm really excited about how that team stands to come together. It should be an easy team for which to root. If I can just grit my teeth and make it through one more year of The Manager's . . . creativity.
Griffin proposes to look at what the Jays future roster would look like made up only of players born after January 1, 1984 but honestly, that's really just kind of a gimicky way to tie into a well known number. It has no specific baseball related relevance. So even though it's an interesting thought, he still kind of screwed it up looking for the hook.
So here's my modification: Lets agree that Aaron Hill is the new heartbeat of the team. with all due respect to Vernon, the burden of his contract undermines the idea this is "Wells' team" plus, he's old enough that the exercise is kind of silly if you set his age as the cutoff.
So, while noting that there's no way to move Wells for at least the next three seasons, let's say that he's the only guy on the team older than Hil (who is just about to turn 28).
So you'd lose, off the current group, the following -
Jose Bautista
Lyle Overbay
John McDonald
Mike McCoy
Alex Gonzalez
John Buck
Jose Molina
Merkin Valdez
Brian Tallet
Scott Richmond
Shaun Marcum
Casey Janssen
Dirk Hayhurst
Kevin Gregg
Jason Frasor
Scott Downs
Jesse Carlson
Shawn Camp
Jeremy Accardo
Okay hold it - let's make an exception for Marcum, he's about 3 months older than Hill so he can be the "senior" man on the pitching staff.
Otherwise, what you have there is a list of players who, no matter how good they are, are placeholders, or bridge players to the players who'll make up the next Jays contender. I have no problem, of course, letting some of the older guys stopgap - I'm not saying waive the lot of them. I'm just illustrating the idea that none of these guys are integral to the Jays' medium range future. Even though some of them were late enough getting to the majors they might well still be here in 2012 (such as Jesse Carlson).
With few exceptions, if any, there's a clear picture here of guys who are only keeping a spot warm for younger players to come (Accardo and Camp give way to Collins and Farquhar for instance, or Buck and Molina holding a spot for Arencibia)
Like many others, I'm really excited about how that team stands to come together. It should be an easy team for which to root. If I can just grit my teeth and make it through one more year of The Manager's . . . creativity.
Thursday, 11 March 2010
What's All This Then?
There's an opinion that seems to have a lot of currency in the Jays blogosphere to the effect that the Jays don't need a fifth starter that much in April. to that I say: "Huh?"
Notably of late, Mop Up Duty elaborates on the point here, but in truth, they have to send guys out on short rest four times to get that (including the recovering McGowan TWICE!) effect. Now, I'll refrain from involving myself in the "Morrow to the minors" theme which the post is actually about (I disagree but no matter) and just concentrate on the scheduling.
Jordan Bastian has discerned, rightly so in my opinion, that the Jays seem to be targeting an opening day rotation of Marcum/Romero/Morrow/Zep/Tallet, with all of us more or less assuming Tallet is a placeholder for better pitchers to come.
Now I am perfectly fine with the idea that you start McGowan out on the DL to get his stamina built up and then slot him in for Tallet, but one hopes Clarance doesn't fall in love with him. In any case, I project the pitching schedule like this:
(x=off day)
4/5 - Marcum
4/6 - x
4/7 - Romero
4/8 - Morrow
4/9 - Zep
4/10- Marcum
4/11- Romero
4/12- Tallet
4/13- Morrow
4/14- Zep
4/15- Marcum
4/16- Romero
4/17- Tallet
4/18- Morrow
4/19- Zep
4/20- Marcum
4/21- Romero
4/22- x
4/23- Morrow
4/24- Zep
4/25- Marcum
4/26- Romero
4/27- McGowan
4/28- Morrow
4/29- Zep
See what I did there? IF I send Romero on three days rest on 4/11, then I can get it down (if they are slotted properly) to three appearances for the "fifth" pitcher in April. but if no one goes on short rest then Tallet would get three starts by 4/21. and if we assume McGowan joins the rotation on 4/26 that's 4 starts in the month for the "fifth" starter. But that's not really that remarkable since a couple of starters will only get five starts in any given month.
Maybe it's just me but I'm not overly impressed with the number of off days in April or the convenience of them.
But to reiterate, that's not to say I'm against the idea of using Tallet to get two (or three) early starts as long as we understand it's not anything more than that.
Notably of late, Mop Up Duty elaborates on the point here, but in truth, they have to send guys out on short rest four times to get that (including the recovering McGowan TWICE!) effect. Now, I'll refrain from involving myself in the "Morrow to the minors" theme which the post is actually about (I disagree but no matter) and just concentrate on the scheduling.
Jordan Bastian has discerned, rightly so in my opinion, that the Jays seem to be targeting an opening day rotation of Marcum/Romero/Morrow/Zep/Tallet, with all of us more or less assuming Tallet is a placeholder for better pitchers to come.
Now I am perfectly fine with the idea that you start McGowan out on the DL to get his stamina built up and then slot him in for Tallet, but one hopes Clarance doesn't fall in love with him. In any case, I project the pitching schedule like this:
(x=off day)
4/5 - Marcum
4/6 - x
4/7 - Romero
4/8 - Morrow
4/9 - Zep
4/10- Marcum
4/11- Romero
4/12- Tallet
4/13- Morrow
4/14- Zep
4/15- Marcum
4/16- Romero
4/17- Tallet
4/18- Morrow
4/19- Zep
4/20- Marcum
4/21- Romero
4/22- x
4/23- Morrow
4/24- Zep
4/25- Marcum
4/26- Romero
4/27- McGowan
4/28- Morrow
4/29- Zep
See what I did there? IF I send Romero on three days rest on 4/11, then I can get it down (if they are slotted properly) to three appearances for the "fifth" pitcher in April. but if no one goes on short rest then Tallet would get three starts by 4/21. and if we assume McGowan joins the rotation on 4/26 that's 4 starts in the month for the "fifth" starter. But that's not really that remarkable since a couple of starters will only get five starts in any given month.
Maybe it's just me but I'm not overly impressed with the number of off days in April or the convenience of them.
But to reiterate, that's not to say I'm against the idea of using Tallet to get two (or three) early starts as long as we understand it's not anything more than that.
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