2011 in Review: Lansing Lugnuts

In the afterglow of what was likely the best regular seasons night in professional sports history, made all the more enjoyable by several rather remarkable sub-plots (and the fact that one of the Evil Empires was so throughly humiliated) it seems very anti-climatic to be doing another write up on the Jays minor league teams, but the roads must roll and there’s a lot of things on my calendar at this time of year so I had better start making up some ground.

It’s made a bit better because we no arrive at one of the more fascinating affiliates to talk about. There’s some real heft to this list, as you will see.

1. Jake Marisnick, CF, 20, 6'4" 200
It’s probably impossible for me to overstate just how much I love me some Jake Marisnick.  He’s easily a Top 5 prospect in the Blue Jays organization, and he was ranked third in the MWL by Baseball America (though they also commented that any of the top five could have been #1). Not only did he have an outstanding offensive and defensive year, while accumulating sterling reports from every scout who saw him, but from May onward, he got better and better as the season progressed, posting a .983 OPS in August. Overall his final OPS was .888 and, to add to the juicy goodness here, he stole 37 bases.  Given their situation in CF and RF, the Jays can afford to be patient with Marisnick, taking him one level at a time. But I don’t know if I can stand to wait until 2015 to see him competing for a job in Toronto.

2. Marcus Knecht, 21, OF, 6'1" 200
Overshadowed somewhat by Marisnick, the RH hitting Knecht is a fine hitter and a fine prospect in his own right. Pushed to LF not because he’s a poor defender but because his teammates are just that good, Knecht wore down a bit in August but overall had a fine season. The Toronto native and third round pick in the 2010 draft finished the year with an .851 OPS and solid marks across the board, with the exception of a too-high strikeout rate.

3. Michael Crouse, 20, RF, 6'4" 215
A 16th round sleeper from the 2008 draft, Crouse carries the tag of having great tools but needing polish. Coming into 2011 he had an impressive half season on his second try at the GCL to brag about, and not much else statistically speaking. It was something of a surprise that he started the year in Lansing but clearly he was up to the challenge. August was even less kind to him than to Knecht, as he missed all but six games but consider the final stat line for these three guys:

M: 118 G, 462 AB, 148 H, 27 D, 6 T, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 43 BB, 91 K, 37 SB, 8 CS
K: 121 G, 439 AB, 120 H, 34 D, 3 T, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 67 BB, 124 K, 4 BB, 3 CS
C: 101 G, 364 AB, 95 H, 26 D, 5 T, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 44 BB, 113 K, 38 SB, 8 CS

M: .320/.392/.496/..888
K: .273/.377/.474/.851
C: .261/.352/.475/.827

Clearly Jake has a much better contact rate at this point, and Knecht is considerably slower than the other two, but beyond that it’s remarkable how similar the results are in many ways. For instance, Crouse actually had a better walk rate and XBH rate than Marisnick did, despite the lower contact rate. Crouse is reportedly quite the physical specimen too.He was right there with Marisnick all season, with the exception of a noticeable slump in June.

4. Carlos Perez, 20, C, 6'0" 193
2011 was a year Perez would probably like to forget. In may ways, he got untracked offensively in only one month (July) and reportedly had some rough patches on defense as well. Overal he finished with a .675 OPS, but he came into the season with such good numbers that it’s probably wise to give him a mulligan on this season. If it’s anything the Jays have, it’s the luxury of taking their time with catching prospects.

And on the mound...

1. Sean Nolin, LHP, 21
Nolin doesn’t just have good stats but he’s got a good story to go with it. Seems the 6'5", 235 horse, who was drafted in the 6th round in 2010, had shown up after signing last year pretty out of shape, and he didn’t have much on-field success in six starts for the rookie level squad. The Jays were pleasantly surprised when a different Nolin showed up for spring training in 2011. Toned up, and pitching much more crisply, Nolin earned a spot on the Lansing roster and never looked back. He racked up 113 K in 108 IP, while posting a 3.6 ratio of strikeouts to walks and a 1.23 WHIP. Between solid results and having made an impression with his work effort, the Jays think they have something to be proud of in Nolin.

2. Casey Lawrence, RHP, 22
Ok, let me be frank - Lawrence is probably not really a prospect. His entire career will be an uphill battle against that perception. He was an undrafted free agent, signed by the Jays after the 2010 draft. Then he went right out and kicked serious ass in the NYP league, built around impeccable control. In 2011, pitching most of the year for Lansing, he maintained solid     rate stats in every area, except that he gave up a much higher HR rate than in 2010. This might have been a fluke, or it might be a sign that he’s one of those guys who’s skills play well at the lower level but gets exposed as they move up. He’s one of those guys you want to root for, and that’s why i tip my rhetorical hat to him here, but he’s got a lot to overcome yet.

3. Danny Barnes, RHRP, 21
I really hesitate to include a reliever on a list like this, particularly at such a low level. As a general rule relief prospects below AA probably aren’t prospects at all. But Barnes was dominant. He struck out 13.5 per 9, while having a WHIP of 0.97 and an ERA of 2.32. He might be the exception. Impressive work for a 35th round pick.

Drew Hutchison pitched about half a season here too, but look for him on the Dunedin list. Syndergaard and Nicolino also had a few starts here but they’ve been covered.

As much as I hate to trap myself into a deadline I don’t meet, I’m hoping to get the Dunedin review up over the weekend.


   

2011 in Review: Vancouver Canadians

Like Bluefield, it's really kind of remarkable this club made the playoffs  (and in this case won a championship). In both cases the premium talent isn't very deep. both have just a bare handful  of studs, some interesting sleepers, and a bunch of organizational player type. both suffered a good bit from their best players being promoted. But the September results were there. The Canadians were particularly ordinary on the offensive side.

1. Kevin Patterson, 1B, 22, 6'4", 220
Patterson was the Blue Jays 30th round pick in 2011, and any enthusiasm about his hitting has to be tempered with another look at his age. A 22 year old with any skill at all SHOULD be knocking around opposing pitching at this level. Still, Patterson was the best hitter on this team in 2011 with an OPS that would have ranked 4th in the league (.859) had he enough at bats to qualify. Patterson played in roughly half of the teams games (after destroying GCL pitching for 15 games) so one might double his counting stats to get an idea what a full season might have looked like.

2. Jon Berti, 2B, 21, 5'10", 175
There's a rule of thumb that suggests that if you are drafted as a 2B, particularly beyond the first couple of rounds (Berti was selected in the 18th in this years draft) you are really on the margins of having a future. Berti is at very best a sleeper. But he did post an impressive OPS and stole 23 bases (against five CS) and being the best hitter over the full season of the team's play, he deserves to at least be noticed.

3. Jon Jones, CF, 22, 5'' 11", 185
The speedy Jones, a 29th rounder from 2010, didn't really hit that well except for power. He's started the year in Lansing but with that impressive OF he lost out. Perhaps he resented the demotion? He did, however, hit much better after the break, and he led the team in home runs while also stealing 18. He's probably still got a better chance than some guys above him like Marcus Brisker and Kenny Wilson.

And on the mound...

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, 19 (pitched virtually entire season at 18)
It's difficult to overstate just how well regarded Syndergaard is. After seven appearance in Bluefield he made 4 excellent starts in Vancouver and then got the call to bolster the Lansing squad in the playoffs (he made 2 starts at that level). Over the three levels combined he threw 59 innings and compiled a 1.83 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 3.78 K/BB - and opponents hit .211 off of him. He's a classic power pitcher in a classic power pitcher's body, working off a fastball with excellent movement. Reportedly his secondary pitches are raw but show plenty of promise. The kid is a top 10 prospect in the Jays system  and given the depth he's competing against, that's high praise. but hes worthy of it.

2.Justin Nicolino, LHP, 19
Nicolino was chosen by the staff at Baseball America as the best overall prospect in the Northwest League (Syndergaard didn't meet the playing time limits in any of the leagues he played in) and they called him a pitcher with #2 starter projection in the majors. It's easy to see why. A 2nd round pick in last years draft, the 6'3" lefty is still listed at just 160 pounds so he has room yet to grow and perhaps improve on his already impressive ability. Check out this stat line from his 12 appearances for the Canadians:
1.03 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 5.82 K/BB, 1.89 BB/9, 11 K/9, .156 BAA
He was truly a man among boys  and it's puzzling that the jays didn't advance him to lansing before the very end of August.

The list for the VanCans is a short one, particularly for a playoff team. There are likely some sleepers there that haven't posted gaudy stats yet but whom we will be talking about in years to come - Remember Nestor Molina was my #46 prospect a year ago! But it's the nature of such things that it's difficult to know who that might be. Here's a combined list for the Vancouver and Bluefield teams:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Aaron Sanchez
3. Justin Nicolino
4. Chris Hawkins
5. Kevin Pillar
6. Tyler Ybarra
7. Mitch Taylor
8. Dave Rollins
9/10 (tie) Kevin Patterson and Art Charles

Next up, the mighty Lansing Lugnuts.

He's Smarter Than You

And don't you forget it.



Hot off the presses today (well, yesterday by the time I get this posted) comes a story by John Tomase of the Boston Herald about Alex Anthopoulos and his philosophy of team building with some remarkable quotes from AA which are sure to spark a lot of discussion among rosterbating fans pining away to see Rogers' cash dispersed liberally on the Free Agent market.

It was only a few days before when local writer Jeff Blair kindle the fire when he stated (without a supporting quote) that Paul Beeston would not sign off on a contract longer than five years, now AA seems to add more fuel to the flame with comments which can't be music to the ears of those penciling Fielder or Pujols (and every once in a while both!) into the Blue Jays 2012 lineup.



Here's the direct quote:

“I think we’ve had a lot of really good players here,” Anthopoulos said. “Obviously it’s hard to get the great ones, especially in free agency. One, they don’t get to free agency. Two, you normally pay them more years and more dollars than you have to. And three, you’re getting them — not at the end of their careers — but a little bit older. It’s what we need to do with the division we’re in and the parameters we have to work with.

“If I was the GM of some other team in some other division, everything would be different. Everything we do is tailored to the parameters of Toronto, Rogers (Centre), Canada, AL East, Boston, New York, Tampa, Baltimore. Put it all in a pot and say, ‘OK, what’s the best game plan?’ ”

 

“The trade route where we are right now is important for us,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s going to be a big part of what we’re doing and it is. Free agency is the last route we want to go. At some point we’ll have to start delving into it a little more, but I still want to try to avoid it at all costs. If we try to do this through the draft, it’s going to be a while. And it’s not going to work and we’re not going to get it to time properly.”

How much clearer does he need to make it? Don't get me wrong, would I love to see Pujols play out a Hall-of-Fame career in a Jays uniform? Heck yes. And I'm not worried about the price. But given these comments, it's hard to see AA getting in on any premium FA with the possible exception of Darvish who's obviously not your conventional situation. And even that is possibly a long shot.



So I, for one, am going to quit entertaining that kind of speculation. If he wants to surprise me I'll enjoy it but until then, I'm going with the assumption that any FA signing would be something similar to the signings of Rauch and Dotel last winter and any premium acquisition will come, as he indicates, via trade. And I'm ok with that. I admit it's kind of irrational, but I really had rather slay the dragons with guys who feel like “real” Blue Jays – the ones who we're acquired with genius, and not just cash – than to have to concede a big portion of the credit to some FA import.



So, in solidarity with his comment, let me suggest who thoughts regarding potential deals which are in the forefront of my off-season daydreams:

1. Joey Votto/Yonder Alonso – Votto is THE answer, trade wise, to the Pujols/Fielder meme. He's also not necessarily available and will be very expensive if he can be had. Still, with the Reds sitting on a premium 1B prospect, looking at the potential that Votto would leave via FA in two years (or require a mega-deal) and calculating that there's much more value in dealing him with two years of control rather than one, I certainly think it's possible. And one doesn't need to go even that deep in calculating why the Blue Jays would covet a premium talent who's a native of the area. On the other hand, if the Reds insist on trying to keep Votto for years to come, then it's time they faced the reality that Alonso is no outfielder (let alone a 3B). The jays would certainly have to be interested in a premium prospect who fell more in the age range of the other young core players they have assembled. He'd also come considerably cheaper.
   
2. Gordon Beckham - This one falls much more in the area of reclamation projects, and only really makes sense if the ChiSox are at the end of their patience with the young 2B. It would be a gamble, for sure, but AA is known to like the guy a lot and I'm kind of the opinion that it's better ultimately to try to get him back on an upward path than to hope and pray Johnson or Hill can put together a good year.
   

I'm sure I could scrounge up some other intriguing possibilities – the biggest argument against these two is they make so much sense that AA will probably be doing something else entirely – but as much as I'm sure at some point we'll have to give up a prospect I really love, I still like the trade plan myself, much more so that the idea of throwing big cash at free agents. Over the entire history of the Jays, the number of premium free agent signings I have swooned over has been very very small. I haven't found a reason to change that preference.

2011 in Review: The Bluefield Blue Jays

The Blue Jays affiliates boasted an impressive five teams in the playoffs this year and Bluefield was among them. all props to the team, and kudos to Dennis Holmberg for winning Manager of the Year. But while there is real player development value in giving the kids playoff experience, ultimately for the purposes of this review is targeted to individual results, and that's where I'm going to focus my attention lest I bloviate even more than usual.

1. Chris Hawkins, LF, 20, 6''2", 195
Hawkins played most of the season at 19, and while he was the 2nd best hitter on the team, in terms of results, Hawkins was a third round pick (in 2010) and the other guy went in the 32nd round so I'm gonna give Hawkins the benefit of the doubt here. He has nothing to apologize for on his results though. The k's are not a bit high as one might expect given his age and experience, he showed good power and a very respectable OBP. There's a lot to like here.

2. Kevin Pillar, RF, 22, 6'0" ,200
The "other guy" is Pillar. Pillar hit for more power, made more contact, and struck out less than Hawkins. so why is he not #1? Besides the relative draft positions - age. Pillar had a bunch of success, but he spent the whole season at a level 2-3 spots lower than a 22 year old normally finds himself. Which raises questions about how seriously the Jays see him as a prospect. Still, the Blue Jays minor league field coordinator Doug Davis said in a Batter's Box interview that Pillar has an off-the-charts make-up which made him a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. Sometimes these guys do come from unexpected places and mate reasonable talent with tremendous drive and turn out to be something worth watching. By rights, he ought to be skipped all the way to Dunedin next year but he probably has to establish himself at Lansing first. Still, if he's not in Dunedin by the end of 2012 you know he's one of those low-level mirages.

3. Art Charles, 1B, 20, 6'6", 221
The big man on the team led the squad in homers, and RBI, but also posted well over a strikeout per game which is a rate which will expose him badly as he moves up the ladder. He did also lead the team in walks, so there may well be something there, but I'm sure the Jays are really going to be working on better contact without losing the power. As with Pillar, I have no real information on his defensive skills.

4. Dan Arcila, 2B/SS, 21, 6'1" 170
Listed as a SS, he played 2B most of the time for Bluefield to accommodate slow-developing bonus-baby Gus Pierre. I can't really tell you whether or not Arcila has the defensive chops to play SS if the opportunity were available. I can tell you that he had a higher slugging percentage than Charles (though with considerably fewer walks and K's).

5. Gutavo Pierre, SS, 19, 6'2", 193
Pierre opened the season in Lansing where his defense completely disappeared (an incredible 36 in 56 games) and his bat was, as you might expect, non-existent. Shifted to Bluefield after the short-season teams began play, Pierre worked from the DH position for many games early on as the team decided to let him focus on one side of the ballgame. His bat did recover moderately, (though he did fade over the course of the season) and his error rate fell to 8, but with so many games at DH, that has to be understood in context. There's still a ton of work to do here.


And on the mound . . .

1. Aaron Sanchez, RHSP, 19
Stat aside, the obviously most talented arm in Bluefield, once Syndergaard moved up at least, was Sanchez. The pitcher Mel Queen said was the best prospect he'd seen since Chris Carpenter was brilliant at times, and wobbly at others. Overall the biggest concern is refining his command.

2. Tyler Ybarra,  LHP, 21
Ybarra was a lowly 46th round choice in the 2008 draft, albeit understood as a potential sleeper. He got a mere 20 innings in 2009 in the GCL and lost all of 2010 to injury. He was working his way back in 2011 and boy did he ever. He started out in relief, then worked his way into a "tandem start" arrangment in which he pitched several innings as would a SP. down the stretch he did get five starts and the Jays seem likely to continue to use him in that role.He's notable for his nifty 2.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .200 BAA, and 3.38 K/BB ratio. Ybarra certainly doesn't have the pedigree, but he put himself on the radar at est in 2011.

3. Mitch Taylor, LHSP, 19
The 7th round selection in the 2010 draft contrast with Sanchez in that his calling card is a much better refined strike-throwing ability. His stats are somewhat reminiscent of Bobby Bell's from a couple of years back though being left handed should give him a higher ceiling. On the other hand, he was sent home early and unofficial reports suggested it was a discipline/coaching issue.

4. Dave Rollins, LHSP, 21
Being somewhat older, and having been a 24th round choice, I'm a bit more skeptical of Rollins than of the two above him. However, on the other side, Rollins is more advanced than Joe Musgrove who was taken much higher so he deserves props. Rollins pitched almost 36 innings over two levels and walked a mere 3 batters while striking out 29.

There are fewer names here partly because most of the high achievers didn't stick around and will appear on the Vancouver or Lansing list and partly because with a newly created level within the Jays farm system, there is a bit more filler on this team (and Vancouver) than would be ideal.. But don't be surprised if some sleepers from this bunch emerge.

2011 in Review: The GC Blue Jays

[First in a Series]


The GCL team can in many ways be the hardest team to do such a review on because of a couple of circumstances which are more common at this level than at the higher levels. First, it's much more transitory. Depending on age, a good prospect might just wet their feet here before moving on, or he might be a regular who accumulates a lot of playing time. Secondly, it can serve as a sort of taxi squad to the upper level teams.
Fortunately, this isn't going to get in my way too much because those who were promoted after a small sample can usually be addressed on their other team, and the "taxi squad" guys are almost always simply organizational filler anyway.

I'm going to begin this review with the offensive side of the game. I'm really not in a position to tell you much of anything about defense beyond what may be inferred by who played what position the most, but that can tell us something about how the Blue Jays organization views their abilities, and we can then move on to the accumulated offensive stats. This, then, is one writers take on the top prospects among non-pitchers.

1. Jake Anderson, RF, 18, 6'4" - 190
Anderson was the Blue jays' 2nd overall pick in the 2011 draft and, as seems obligatory for a draftee of his station, was compelled to "hold out" until the signing deadline but when he finally got on the field, he was an absolute star. There's a sample size caveat here, because some considered Anderson a bit of a signability choice at that pick, and it was only nine games. Still, a 1.098 OPS from such a highly drafted player has to be respected. It will be interesting to see if the Jays advance him to Vancouver or even Lansing next spring as the aggressively advanced Marcus Kenect or if they will send him to Bluefield in a more measured approach.

2. DJ Thon, SS, 19, 6'2" - 185
Thon was, as you know if you are one of the few regular readers of this blog (or one of the many readers of sites like those in the sidebar) considered a late-first round talent who was unsignable last year when the Jays stole him in the 5th round and accomplished the supposed impossible by getting his name on a contract. He didn't play at all last spring, and he reportedly missed a lot of time in extended spring training with what the Blue jays reported as a "blood disorder." While the details are unreported, I'm going to presume until I've heard differently that it's because of this that Thon seemed to lack endurance this year. He was good in June, excellent in July (.911 OPS while starting almost as many games at DH as at SS) and helpless in August (.385 OPS while playing 15 of 17 starts at SS). it seems reasonable to give him a mulligan on that August and continue to expect big things.

3. Eric Arce, LF, 19, 5'9" - 204
Physically evocative of Matt Stairs, Arce was the most prolific hitter to play essentially the full season for the GCL squad. Though apparently not a polished defender (he was the guy who appeared most at DH as well as in LF) that might be because he was drafted as a catcher.The LH hitting Arce was drafted by the Jays in the latter rounds (27th and 25th respectively) of both the 2010 and 2011 draft (Arce walked away from his college team in time to retain his ability to re-enter the draft). While you have to take anything done by such a late pick at the lower levels with a huge grain of salt, you have to respect Arce - after all he did only set a league record for home runs with 14 (which would be more impressive if you'd ever heard of the previous record holder). More impressively, he drew 38 walks in 49 games which is eye-catching for a power hitter. He was promoted to Bluefield at the very end of the season no doubt for the playoff ride. Expect him to move slowly through the system as the Jays explore whether he's legit, or a mirage.

4. Dalton Pompey, CF, 18, 6'1" - 170
The Ontario native was drafted in the 16th round of the 2010 draft and is viewed by some as an interesting sleeper. Reportedly an impressive defender, a skilled base-runner (19 steals, never caught in the GCL this year, he was 4 for 5 in Bluefield) and able to draw a walk (24 in 42 games), Pompey does need to increase his contact rate to really put himself on the map, but he has plenty of time. He struggled to put the bat on the ball after his August 10 promotion to Bluefield, but the good eye continued to be apparent. look for him back there in 2012.

5. Santiago Nessy, C, 18, 6'2" - 230
The conundrum with Nessy is obvious - can a guy his size stay behind the plate?  That which constitutes solid offensive development for a catcher can become very mediocre if that same player is at 1B or DH. At this point Nessy has doubles power and strikes out far too often, but he had a respectable OPS for a Venezuelan bonus baby playing in his first year stateside. Given what they paid him, the jays surely see something in him but my guess is by the time he hits Dunedin, the tools of ignorance will be in his past.

6. Jorge Vega-Rosado, SS/2B, 19, 5'8" - 175
AKA Chino Vega (which I shall henceforth call him so get used to it). Vega would seem, at first glance, to be an insignificant guy. A slender 5'8" guy drafted in the 28th round, how good could he be, right? Well, the Jays thought enough of his potential to give him a offer for $200,000 which enticed him out of college by mid-June.  Playing mostly 2B out of deference to Thon, Vega rewarded that decision with solid contact (.317 BA) respectable pop and solid speed (22 SB in 26 attempts) while playing reportedly solid defense. Little guys will always have to earn respect but Vega has nothing to apologize for so far.


Others to watch: Nico Taylor (OF), Justin Atkinson (3B/SS), and Seth Conner (3B)


Turning to the pitchers . . .


1. Adonys Cardona, RHSP, 17
The Venezuelan bonus baby - recipient of a #2.8 million contract in 2010 - was not lights out this year, his first in the states, but it was more than respectable for a 17 year old who's clearly the brightest light among pitchers on this roster. The figure to look at here, rather than ERA, is the almost 3:1 ratio of K's to walks. He also struck out more than a hitter per IP and had a solid ground out ratio. He's overshadowed by the plethora of more advances pitching prospects in the system so far, which is proper - but don'tforget his name.


2. Griffin Murphy, LHSP, 20, 6'3" - 200
Murphy was selected as a highly regarded 2nd round pick in 2010 and had an inconsistent year overall in 2011, especially for a pitcher who was 20 on opening day in the GCL. Some of his ending numbers were respectable, but the opposition made too much contact against him.  On this squad, he remains highly ranked because of his draft status, but as he advances he will have to step up his game if he wants to remain in the "best of" conversations.


3. Joe Musgrove, RHSP, 18, 6'5" 230
Musgrove was the Blue Jays third overall pick in this years draft, and signed quickly. Mostly regarded as something of a sign-ability reach, that doesn't mean he's without talent. Musgrove put up a WHIP under 1.00 in the GCL and a solid BAA. That combined with his draft position earns him this much respect.


4. Tucker Jensen, 22, 6'2" - 205
Jensen was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the independent leagues and the climb for such players is always incredibly steep and few there be that make it. Jensen was moved to higher levels twice and stumbled each time, but - while he was old for the GCL - his stats there clearly outpaced those of anyone else on his team and absent another highly regarded teammate with a significant sample size, I'll tip my metaphorical cap to him here. 


Other names you might hear again: Colby Brussard (RHRP), Jeremy Gabryszwski (RHSP), Randall Thompson (RHSP)


Combined ranking:
1. Cardona
2. Anderson
3. Thon
4. Murphy
5. Musgrove
6. Arce
7. Pompey
8. Nessy
9. Vega
10. Jensen




Next up: The Bluefield Blue Jays

Out of Innings?

At this time of year, in recent seasons, the minds of the obsessive followers of teams out of contention (and some of those fans of teams in contention) begin to muse about whether a given young pitchers is being worked to hard. This became a front burner issue for the fans after SI's Tom Verducci several years ago detailing what he called the YAE (Year After Effect). Verducci made the case that for pitchers under 25, a team should not expect them to exceed 30IP over their previous career high. to do so, he argues (not unpersuasively) invites injury in the year after they are pushed to an excessive high.

The Jays management have discussed a somewhat modified position on this, in that they try to limit an increase in workload to 20% over the previous career high, though this is not set in stone, and not necessarily limited to those under 25 (they applied the limit to Brandon Morrow last year).

So with that in mind, let's review the important pitchers in the Blue Jays system and see where they stand:

Toronto-

Romero is very safe. Morrow and Cecil both have about 30 IP left and should not exceed that by any significant amount. Luis Perez is almost 60 IP short of his previous career high. Henderson Alvarez has about 3 more starts in him before he hits his theoretical ceiling (he shouldn't exceed 150 IP) - this means someone else should take his last turn.
If we assume Kyle Drabek is a Toronto pitcher for the purpose of this exercise, he's got about 30 more IP in the tank so there's no issue there.

Las Vegas-

Their season is finished, and no one there really matters except Brad Mills anyway. He did not exceed his previous career high this year.

New Hampshire-

Begins their playoff run tomorrow, and has no less than 4 pitchers worth worrying about.
Chad Jenkins: Jenkins has about 3 IP until he gets to 120%, but he's a horse and the Jays will surely let him pitch as long as he's effective in the playoffs (which would only be two starts in any case). In theory he could exceed the "cap" by a dozen innings or so.
Deck McGuire: Thanks to a recent injury, Deck has about 10 IP in the tank. One assumes he will be handled gently in his first playoff start and any excess of the cap will be insignificant.
Nestor Molina: Is already almost 50 IP past his previous career high (81 IP). whatever damage will be done has been done.
Drew Hutchison: Has more than doubled his total from last year. i think it's safe to assume he's well beyond any he might have accumulated in high school. It's worth remembering that in his case, as well as Molina's, we are not privy to how many innings they may have pitched in unofficial settings.

Dunedin-
Only one guy in the playoff rotation to worry about here, everyone else is a fringe prospect, and that is
Asher Wojciechowski: Combining his last year of college and the 12 IP he got as a pro in 2010, he still has about 7 IP in the tank. Any exceeding of the cap will be in the single digits.

Lansing-
We're down to dealing with high schoolers here. There's no way to find out how many IP Noah Syndergaard or Aaron Sanchez had in high school. But I don't think the Verducci rule is generally applied in this context, since it's hardly practical to limit a first pros season to 75 IP or some such.

So, in summation, give someone else Alvarez's last start and there is no real issue which remains to be addressed. We'll have to watch Molina and hutch next year to see if there's some ill effect.

by the way, random thought -

• McGowan was activated today, Huzzah! He's available to pitch tomorrow, and I, for one, would like to see Perez given the first five IP and (unless he's doing something special) give way to McGowan to start the sixth.
• Brett Lawrie delivered the walk-off win with an 11th inning HR just now. is there nothing this young man can't do? (It's sure not defense either).
• Speaking of today's game - kudos to Henderson Alvarez (and the bullpen) for stifling the league's best offense today. He's making a heck of a case to break camp in the rotation next year.

Upcoming plans - It is my intention to do a fairly through review of each minor league squad, starting at the lowest level (not counting the Dominican) and working my way up. This will take a bit of time and research to do right, but I hope to be able to do no less than one a week and preferably two. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: September recalls

Shi Davidi has the scoop on what players the jays will add on the September recalls and it provokes some questions. All the conversations I've seen on this subject proceed from the assumption that such players have to be added to the 40 man roster if they are not already on it. After this morning's addition of Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays only had one opening, yet three of the recalls were not previously on the 40 man roster. Either these assumptions were wrong (unlikely) or the Jays have other roster maneuvers afoot to open up space.

Here's the list:

Kyle Drabek
Brad Mills
Danny Farquhar
Chad Beck
David Cooper
Adam Loewen

Loewen, Farquhar, and Beck were not previously on the 40 man roster. My tentitive speculation is that PJ Walters may have been cut (a reliever already on the 40 who didn't get a recall while two others did seems vulnerable) and Travis Snider was moved to the 60-day DL (assuming that can happen this late in the season). That would create the room necessary. There doesn't seem to be another obvious candidate to be cut, unless you read a lot into the glaring fact that Darin Mastroianni isn't on that list.

Catching Up

Gird thy loins for one of those intermittent omnibus posts wherein I try to cover all the relevant events of the last week or so. Girded? Good . . .

Item: Hill/McDonald for Johnson. On the surface, this would seem to be worthy of extensive commentary but it's more straightforward than it might seem. if you lay aside the emotionalism and focus strictly on roster management machinations, it's easy to see why both tams made the move. Both second basemen were having disheartening years, with Hill desperately in need of something to jar him out of the ditch (if anything could); both are pending free agents who will be at least B types (Johnson projects as a fringe candidate for "A" status in the AL but not the NL); both were nominally potential targets for a FA signing by the team for whom they now play.

Each team gets an opportunity for an up-close look at the new guy, the new guy gets a chance to see how they like the new team, the D'backs pick up a much needed SS and the Jays either avoid paying a first rounder for Johnson (if he'd have surprised and been a type A) or, alternately, potentially gain 2 picks for him if he leaves. it's been widely (and correctly) noted the jays might very ell look to bring Hill back if Johnson leaves and they are certain to bring McDonald back.

Hows it working out? In seven games in the desert Hill's OPS is .956, in seven games for the Jays Johnson is OPSing .996 - smiles all around.

Item: Henderson Alvarez demands your attention. The Roookie mowed through the Orioles for eight dominant innings tonight, and while it's true there is still development to be done, and there will be bumps in the road, he's making his case to stick in the majors next spring.

Item: Respect JP Arencibia. It might be claimed that since his hot start, he's been an offensive drag on the team, this turns out not to be true. In his first 40 games this season, his OPS was .824; in his next 34 games, possibly affected by the lingering hand injury, it fell to .505; but in the most recent 29 games, he's rebounded to hit even better than in the early going, with an .866 OPS. At this point he has a better HR/AB ratio than any starting catcher in baseball not named Brian McCann, slump included.

Item: Brett Lawrie is a God. that is all.

Item: there's growing unrest among jays fans, not unjustified, about whether Adam Lind is going to turn out to be too mediocre to be entitled to 1B in the coming years. Few have been a bigger defender of Lind than i have but this IS disconcerting. Coming into tonight, his "slump" now extends to a disturbing 61 games (.197/.238/.313/.551) and ESPN iswriting up features on why the Jays ought to go get Prince Fielder (I still prefer Pujols, for the record). We are actually past the point of wondering if Lind is valuable here and entering the territory where you begin to wonder if he has reasonable trade value. But if we could move Wells and actually get something, that's not a huge concern.

Item: I miss Colby Rasmus.

Item: Carlos Villianueva was activated today, Jon Rauch will likely be activated tomorrow, and while Alex has spoken of waiting out the AAA season, they are free to add more relievers if they see fit about an hour from now. Darn good thing.

Item: The initial AFL assignments have been made - Gose, Hechevarria, Yan Gomes, Evan Crawford, and Aaron Loup (the latter two being relief pitchers). If you don't understand, remember that teams draft slots in the AFL by position (as more than one MLB team shares an AFL team) and so the last couple of players on each squad are lesser-lights. It's worth noting that teams have the opportunity to send six, so there's an unfilled slot here - and these rosters do change. also, reports are that Gomes is taxi squad, as Cooper (I believe) was last year and so won't get a lot of at bats. That's too bad because Gomes is a hidden asset in the Jays system.

Item: Concerning September recalls, keep in mind that AA has said he would wait out the minor league seasons, which means it's probably another week before anyone but the injured players start appearing. Also, keep in mind that NH is in the playoffs so their season won't be over until 9/9 ant the earliest and could stretch as far as 9/17 - the Jays won't weaken that squad for a September recall. It's not impossible to see an AFL assigniee called up in September, but it's not common either. The question on everyone's lips is whether or not Adeiny will be in Toronto in September. I'm still inclined to think he will, for a couple of weeks or so, and then will be dispatched to the AFL before the last week of the major league season. Others you can expect to see include:
Dustin McGowan (from rehab/DL)
Raji Davis (from the DL)
Brad Mills (potentially tried in relief?)
David Cooper
Adam Loewen (if not, he's likely done in the organization)
PJ Walters (maybe . . . just for slop innings though)

That leaves the question of Kyle Drabek. I'm sure he will be IN Toronto, but whether he'll be added to the team I'm not so sure.

Item: Speaking of minor leaguers, you've probably heard by Travis d'Arnaud is Eastern League MVP, Sal Fasano in EL manager of the year, Clayton McCullough is FSL Manager of the year, Mike Redmond is MWL manager of the year, and and Bluefield's Dennis Holmberk is Appy League Manager of the year. I'm seeing a pattern here.

Item: Bluefield started their playoff series with a win tonight, New Hampshire is already qualified for the playoffs, so is Lansing; Dunedin is a game and a half up with four to play. And if Eugene holds on to win the second half title in the NWL then Vancouver is in good shape to make it too. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that never in team history has the Blue Jays organization placed five minor league teams in the playoffs.

I'm sure I probably missed something but that'll do for now.

Follow Friday!

Occasionally I do a few #ff posts on twitter noting all the Blue Jays players who tweet (or at least, have accounts) but there are getting to be so VERY many that I figured why not blow it up and give you more than just names. What follows is as comprehensive list as I can make, broken up by level and with comments where appropriate:

Toronto Blue Jays (11 players)

@JoeyBats19 - Jose Bautista validates my favorite nickname for him
@jparencibia9 - JP Arencibia, a must-follow
@Lunchboxhero45 - Travis Snider, yes, damnit, he's a Blue Jay as far as I'm concerned
@Encadwin - Edwin Encarnacion, new to the twitter game
@blawrie13 - Brett Lawrie, the King of Canada
@RealColbyRasmus - Colby Rasmus, doesn't tweet that much
@ESPY_TEAHEN - Mark Teahan
@Joeycatch8 - Newest major league Jay on Twitter, likey recruited by JP. often tweets in Spanish
@RickyRo24 - Always upbeat
@2Morrow23 - smart guy
@JesseLitsch - not always just baseball

Las Vegas 51's (1)

@ronuviedo_07 - Ron Uvideo

New Hampshire Fishercats (9)
(lots of interaction on long bus trips)

@Travisdarnaud -Travis d'Arnaud
@MacDizzleMan - Mike McDade
@Yan_AGomes - Yan Gomes
@Deckdeisel - John Tolisano
@deckmcguire - Deck McGuire
@Jenknutz - Chad Jenkins
@1DrewHutch - Drew Hutchison
@FrankGailey - Frank Gailey
@Kho4 - Kevin Howard

Dunedin Blue Jays (10)
(not as many high profile guys)

@ajjim6 - AJ Jiminez
@rgoins5 - Ryan Goins
@thebigshow - Sean Ochinko
@JaxChillinONE - Justin Jackson (maybe the most prolific minor league tweeter)
@talley4cali - Jon Talley
@ItsKennyWilson - Kenny Wilson
@sukbrikkid27 - Joe Bowen
@AsherWojo - Asher Wojciechewski
@caseylawrence - Casey Lawrence
@scottgracey - Scott Gracey
@chop510 - Chris Hopkins

Lansing Lugnuts (12)
(most of the bullpen is tweeting)

@JakeMarisnick - Jake Marisnick
@MarcusallenK - Marcus Knecht
@_crouse_ - Michael Crouse
@JonJones707 - Jon Jones
@JackMurphy219 - Jack Murphy
@NoahSyndergaard - Noah Syndergaard
@Sean_Nolin - Sean Nolin
@DjbMantis - Daniel Barnes
@Brandon_Berl - Brandon Berl
@GriFF720 - Shawn Griffith
@S_Strickland34 - Sam Strikland
@MattFields18 - Matt Fields
@jma32 - John Anderson

Vancouver Canadians (7)
(more relievers)

@ksween22 - Kellen Sweeney (virtually never tweets)
@SteveMcQuail - Steve McQuail
@BryanLongpre - Bryan Longpre
@drewpermison - Drew Permison
@PBrua_6 - Phillip Brua
@schaef18 - Chris Schaffer

Bluefield Blue Jays (4)
(five of the draftees are on this team as well)

@SirArthurC - Art Charles
@Tucker_Jensen - Tucker Jensen
@BearJew36 - Ian Kadish
@Boomer2788 - Drew Elliot

Gulf Coast Blue Jays (1)
(wildly under-represented - Jake Anderson is here too)

@Murph14 - Griffin Murphy


2011 draftees (12) (including those assigned to teams above)

@Jake_Anderson22 - Jake Anderson
@musgrove23Jays - Joe Musgrove
@kevcomer - Kevin Comer
@DanielNorris18 - Daniel Norris
@tomrobson15 - Tom Robson
@TonyTones16 - Anthony DeSclarfani
@Mark_Biggs - Mark Biggs
@Matt_Dean_10 - Matt Dean
@EArce813 - Eric Arce
@KPILLAR4 - Kevin Pillar
@Sik28 - Arik Sikula
@LesRWilliams - Lew Williams
@Farrell48 - Shane Farrell

An incredible 68 players! and there might be a few of whom I'm unaware.

EDIT: Updated to add April's two and two other new names. Somehow I missed Sean Nolin, and the recently joined Noah Syndergaard; and again to add draftee Tom Robson..


Also:
Official twitter accounts of the teams:

@BlueJays
@LasVegas51s
@fishercats
@DunedinBlueJays
@LansingLugnuts
@vancanadians
@BluefieldJays


And if that's not enough, few major media sources and or professional evaluators most of whom you likely already follow:

@ShiDavidi
@LottOnBaseball
@RGriffinStar
@Wilnerness590
@elliotbaseball
@keithlaw
@Kevin_Goldstein
@marchulet


Howzat?

I'll catch up on my thoughts on various roster moves next time. I'll conclude here only by observing how bad i feel for Travis Snider. Kid REALLY needs to catch a break next year.

Non-Uniformity!

There's an undercurrent of buzz around the Jays that there will be some sort of new uniforms next year. I will preface my forthcoming views on that subject by saying that in my opinion the Jays have never worn better looking unis than those worn in the early '90s and if the new look was based largely on that one, I'd be a happy girl.

That said, if they really want to step up with some "next generation" patterns, then I suggest adopting the pattern worn by Yu Darvish in this photo.

I'm not good enough with photoshop type programs to do anything but screw it up, but imagine if you will a font very similar to the current Jays logo replacing "Fighters" - a Maple Leaf on the black sleeve and a Jays logo on the cap. Throw in a bit of red or not somewhere if you wish. I think it would be outstanding to be the first to wear that sort of pattern. The alternates might take some more creativity - I'm not sure what the road alternates look like for the Fighters or other Japanese teams. But possibly something that has blue over black, or charcoal gray over black would probably work. I'm confident a professional designer could expand nicely on the basic foundation.

In other news, as if you haven't heard, Mills is down to AAA - likely for good. Perez will get his next start, likely his next three turns, and joel Carreno is up from AA to pitch out of the 'pen - and if you don't understand that, read is as a straight up audition for next year's bullpen. Though it's not impossible he'd go back to AA to help the Fishercats through the playoffs.

Here's something to consider: Over the last 35 games, the Jays are 22-13 (.629) - over 162 games that's a pace for 102 wins, it's a better winning percentage than any team except the Phillies has on the season as a whole, That's one game back of the Yankees and a half game behind the Red Sox over the same period, and at the same pace they would finish with 88 wins. It didn't happen all against weak competition either. Nineteen of the 35 were against teams with better records then they have.

And, other than Encarnacion, it wasn't driven by unusual performances. EE had an OPS of 1.101, but Bautista's was .907, and JPA was at .704 which is consistent with his season as a whole. Lind's was under .700, Hill's under .500, scobar and Thames were right in line with their season stats, and Lawrie and Rasmus didn't play most of those games. That line-up averaged 5.43 runs per game, compared to the previous average of 4.53, they gave up 4.63 runs per game over that stretch, as compared to 4.53 in the previous games.

While one must acknowledge that the over-achiever will regress most likely, yu must also note that Lind will hit better to the same extent, that JPA likely progresses some and yes, even Hill (or whoever replaces him) won't play all year hitting under .500 - so I look at this team and I'm pretty frackin' optimistic about 2012.

On the Dotted Line

(Are lines dotted anymore? I don't think I've ever actually signed on a dotted line . . . eh, nevermind)

By now you know - unless you are trying to access a site which isn't working - the results of the Blue Jays' efforts to sign their draft picks tonight. Tyler Beede got greedy (Make a rhythm every time!) and held out for $3.5 million (reportedly) and the Jays' ceiling was 2.5 mil. As compensation the Jays will get a first round pick in 2012, reportedly #22. The other most coveted draftee was LH Daniel Norris who did in fact sign for $2 million. Norris was called the best HS lefty in the draft by most and not a few said he was probably a better prospect than Beede (and only fell to the Jays because he was considered unsignable). If I may say, if the unsignable guy signs for $2 million, then I'm not at all uncomfortable with declining to pay Beede $3.5 million.

True, it's objectively true that they lost out on him for the price of one year of a mediocre reliever, and from that perspective it's hard to make sense of not signing the first rounder. But within the context of the draft and how it operates, their price for Beede was entirely fair. Another well-regarded high school pitcher was Kevin Comer - and he signed as well. Of the three highly drafted Vanderbilt recruits, two by the Jays and one by the Rays, two signed pro contracts. Beede had said quite a bit about the importance of winning a championship at Vanderbilt - that task got much harder tonight.

The other big signing of the day - the guy who was my personal hobby-horse in this draft, was 3B Matt Dean. Dean was rated the best 3B in the draft and, you guessed it, presumed unsignable so he slid all the way to the 13th round. But he's no 13th round talent. Most estimates had him as, on talent, a late first round or sandwich round pick. It's a MASSIVE steal, IMO, to land Dean. Also today the Jays signed highly regarded SS Christian Lopes, who is likewise a player who slid in the draft due to signability.

Including yesterday's (Sunday) signings, the Jays seriously ramped up the talent load from this draft. and while I've not yet read the reviews, I'm sure the jays will be considered one of the 3-5 biggest winners from this draft even without Beede. let's review:

Blue = signed, red = unsigned; bolded names are the ones I suggest being excited about.

1. Tyler Beede - RHP - 18 years old - unsigned
1s. Jake Anderson - OF - 18 - signed
Promising. some consider this a bit of a reach though.
1s. Joe Musgrove - RHP - 18 - signed
Something of an overdraft by most accounts.
1s. Dwight Smith, Jr. RF - 18 - signed Sunday
He's better than you've heard. some lazy analysis has amounted to "kinda like his dad" but some respected observers are quite impressed with him.
1s. Kevin Comer- RHP - 19 - signed
Excellent choice. He's not gotten as much attention in the shadow of Norris and Beede but he's a good one.
2. Daniel Norris - LHP - 18 - signed
On talent he'd have been a bargain with the first round pick. By the middle of the first round commentators were speculating his price was the only thing keeping him on the board.
2. Jeremy Gabryszwski - RHP - 18 - signed
Little reporting on this guy. He singed a few weeks ago an is on the GCL roster.
3. John Stilson - RHP - 21 - signed Sunday
Was a mid-first round talent on most listed before the season. A shoulder injury knocked him down the draft boards but the Jays felt him worth the gamble. He's got 4 good pitches, and may well start but there's also a possibility he could be developed as a faster-rising closer candidate. He might be one of those guys who, as a closer, could start as high as AA next year and advance as much as his results allow. One of the most interesting players to watch in terms of how the jays handle him.
4. Tom Robson - RHP - 17 (until 8/27) - signed
Position is about right for his Junior year performance. He regressed a bit as a senior, reportedly, but the Jays obviously believe in the kid.
5. Andrew Chin - LHP - 18 - unsigned.
6. Anthony DeSclafini - RHP - signed Sunday
Little discussed in shadow of bigger names - I can't tell you much about him tonight.
7. Christian Lopes - SS - 18 - signed
One of the ones you can get excited about. Another signability bargain.
8. Mark Biggs - RHP - 18 - signed Sunday
Yet another bargain on a guy most thought wouldn't sign.
9. Andrew Suarez - LHP - 18 - unsigned
10. Aaron Garza - RHP - 18 - unsigned
11. Andrew Burns - SS - 20 - signed some weeks ago and playing in Vancouver.
12. John Norwood - CF - 19 - unsigned
13. Matt Dean - 3B - 18 - signed
In my opinion, only Norris has more upside in this draft class for the Jays - be very excited.
14. Cole Wiper - RHP - 19 - unsigned (this is another guy who'd have been a coup)
15. Cody Glenn - LHP - 19 - unsigned.

As always, being as I'm obsessed with lists and rankings, I immediately assigned a lot of these guys tentative spots in my ongoing top prospect ranking list. Without going into tedious detail, here's my initial thoughts:

I have Norris In the second half of the top 10 (Beede would have been in the 10-12 range)
I have Dean in the mid-teens
I have Comer on the fringes of the top 20 (more a reflection of the quality of the system than of his abilities)
I have Stilson in the top 25 (barring more injury trouble)
I have Dwight Smith just in the top 30 and Lopes right behind him. Again, you normally think the guy at #30 is only a so-so prospect but unless you want to dis David Cooper, every one of those 30 guys is a legitimate "keep your eye on him" prospect. Anderson and Biggs fall just outside the Top 30.

All this is subject to announcements about international free agent signings, of course, as well as more extensive reporting about the players we signed from this draft.


Oh, and to end on a major league note - I continue to be shocked and amazed that Trever Miller is still on the Jays' roster, let alone pitching in tight games. I felt that way even before he gave up the lead to the mariners tonight, I feel so even more strongly now. But I've got plenty to be happy about tonight so I'll not rant on that subject further.

September call-ups?

Alex Anthopoulos gave me some additional context this morning for the subject of September recalls, according to Richard Griffin on Twitter, when he said that September call ups would be from the Vegas roster and not New Hampshire. it's safe to assume that this reflects an interest in keeping the NH roster intact for a playoff run and it's not crazy to think the team things it will be good for the prospects on that team to win a championship . . .

Which, by the way, is also likely the reason that the mighty Lansing outfield is still in Lansing. Both the A-level teams are playoff contenders but Lansing Features a much stronger "atmosphere" due to bigger crowds and is probably better for that undefinable "winning experience" mentality.
/digression

. . . so this rules out my previous hunch that Travis d'Arnaud might get a taste of the big leagues this year - but fuels my hunch about the AFL. More on that later. Alex also said the recalls from Vegas would arrive two days after the Vegas season ended which would is September 5.

So . . . a guess . . .

Snider, Loewen and Cooper seem obvious. There will be a catcher - probably Bubbe and I'm leaning towards predicting Hech gets to come too, though Alex says that's not certain. McCoy will come of course. On the pitching side, it's a given Drabek comes back and probably PJ Walters since he's on the 40. Disabled pitchers Villaneuva and Tallet will be added. The remaining question is whether or not McGowan counts when he says "none from the Fishercats" - my guess is he does not and he'll be recalled in September.

If I understand the (poorly reported) Eastern league playoff schedule they will be done no later than 9/17 and the AFL starts 10/4. Speaking of McGowan, he could theoretically help carry them through the playoffs (standing in for Alvarez, in essence) and still get three major league starts. It seems to be that the EL playoff schedule looks like this (with projected rotation):

9/7 - McGowan
9/8 - Jenkins
9/9 - Molina
9/10 -(if necessary) McGuire
9/11 - (if necessary) Carreno

9/13 - McGowan
9/14 - Jenkins
9/15 - Molina
9/16 - (if necessary) McGuire
9/17 - (if necessary) Carreno

If McGowan flew out the next morning he could start on the 18th, 23rd and 28th in Tornto - or if they had him return after he pitched on the 13th and not stay for the celebration they'd have even more options. Honestly, I could see them doing either (recalling him on September 1 or letting him ride the playoff run).

Oh, and by the way, heck of a game on Saturday. I'd assumed Friday was the winnable game so I was not expecting much (even had it been the regular lineup) so it was definitely impressive. And as i write that Lawrie just drove in Rasmus in the bottom of the ninth to tie today's game! Go Jays!

Have Fun With it

My apologies to whoever's photo this is that I just hijack to make a funneh. Hopefully no one gets offended. But you got to laugh at all this stupidity.

I really don't have a reason to make a post except to get that picture posted someplace but just to give you a little baseball related tidbit - Adeiny Hechavarria has been promoted to AAA. You shouldn't read too much into this but one of two things is potentially true (with other variants in between):

1. This means nothing to the overall plan and he will go back to the minors, potentially even AA, next spring with a progress plan that would bring him to the majors for good in late 2013 (he'll be out of options if he goes back to the minors in '12 and '13) and a full time major leaguer (not necessarily starter) beginning in 2014. OR

2. the jays are looking at Hill's production and saying "if we're going to carry an empty bad anyway, why not get an insane glove at SS in the bargain" and thinking about how it would work to move Esco over to 2B next spring and instal Hechavarria at SS. In my mind the risk with this option is that potential that you permanently stunt his offensive growth (which, traditionally, you'd expect to happen more in the minors than in the majors). but I can'trule the possibility out on that basis.

Am I the only one who's getting antsy for the draft signing news to start rolling in?!

#slowdayblues

The Man in White Comes Through!

No one seems to have a photograph of the fabled Man in White - but due to my four unidentified sources, I've found one!

Seriously though, this makes every bit as much sense as the nonsensical ESPN story which is being so thoroughly dismembered across the internet that all I could do would be to summarize the hard work of others. I will only go so far as to say that based on his voice at the beginning of his presser today, if Alex were a violent man something or someone would be broken and bleeding from his rage.
Justifiably so.

Ultimately though, the god-like powers might belong to Alex himself, and not the man in the photograph. The way this team is coming together is almost majestic to behold. there have been isolated moments over the past 18 years when I've been this giddy about the team - possibly the most recent pre-Alex moment was the acquisition of Scott Rolen (I'd always been a huge fan of his) - but I can't remember an extended period when the excitement has just grown and grown as it has since he took over and over the last couple of weeks we're cresting at hights not seen since the fall of '93.

Tonight was already going to be exciting as we watched yet another potential core piece make their debut in a Blue Jay uniform for the first time - the third such occasion in two weeks - but then Brett "Full Tilt" Lawrie stole the show and blew our collective minds. Props to Alvarez who had a perfectly fine debut, especially for a raw 21 year old. But the sheer passion and joy on Lawrie's face as he celebrated his game winning grand slam with his team-mates was electrifying in a way I'm having difficulty finding appropriate words for.

I'm still buzzing over it five hours later! These, my friends, are heady times! If you have missed something, you may want to ask Article Writing Services to write for your site so next time you can catch all the action.

Just a few tidbits you might have missed:

*The Blue Jays have signed Canadian RHP Tom Robson, their 4th round pick and their ninth selection overall, to an over-slot contract; they've also signed 17th rounder, also a RHP, Brady Dragmire - about whom I know almost nothing.

*Travis Snider in three games back in Vegas is 7/12 and more importantly drew three walks tonight and has struck out only once.

*I'm seeing more and more buzz about Travis d'Arnaud from thought-leaders in the baseball commentary universe. I've a hunch you'll see him be a consensus Top 20 prospect in the majors this winter.

*Dustin McGowan got through 4 IP in very impressive fashion - mst nights he'd be the main focus of our discussions. Look for him to join the Jays as early as September 1.

*25 year old "non-prospect" Brad McElroy is hitting for an .829 OPS Since the break. He and teammate Brian Van Kirk are looking like guys who will knock around the organization for a few more years - but don't get excited, they are both quite old for the FSL.

*Some source, which I can't find again at the moment, reports that the latest issue of Baseball America ranks Lansing manager Mike Redmond as the best prospective major league manager in the circuit, and also honored Jake Marisnick as the best batting prospect in the league as well as Steve Turnbull as the best relief prospect (the latter of which surprises me some).

*Another Canadian in the system, 2010 16th round pick Dalton Pompey (gotta love the name) was promoted to Bluefield - he's a speedy CF with a pretty good bating eye for an 18 year old. Some speculation the Jays might be clearing a starting spot in the GCL for 2011 draftee Jake Anderson.

*Finally, I've heard random noise (things like "took a physical" or speculation from professionals) about the Jays having a pretty good likelihood of signing the following:

Tyler Beede
Kevin Comer
Daniel Norris
John Stilson
Matt Dean

That would be a very impressive haul if that was all the signings still unannounced. There have been a couple more vague implications about a couple of other guys - Christian Lopes in the company of Beede at the area-code games for instance - but nothing you could take to the bank.

The highest pick about whom I have seen absolutely not one word in print about is Dwight Smith Jr. It's good to sign everyone but I wouldn't be crushed if he were the one who got away.


Edit: I'm planning a more in depth look at this question some time late next week after the signing hubbub passes but there was a comment with a question about potential September call-ups and I want to just throw out a rough basic list of possibilities. in the JP era it was usually a pretty short list, it's unclear what AA's philosophy is. but as I see it, here are the possibilities:

Pitchers:
Carlos Villanueva - if he's not activated before then
Dustin McGowan
Brian Tallet - if he's recovered
Kyle Drabek
Maybes: Ledzma, Walters, Ray, and Danny Farquhar

Hitters:
Travis d'Arnaud
Travis Snider
Adam Loewen
David Cooper
Mike McCoy
Jayson Nix and/or Chris Woodward
Adeiny Hechavarria (would not actually get playing time, just for the experience, since he's on the 40 man anyway)

Major caveat - any of the legit prospects listed here may very well be assigned to the AFL and generally players going to the AFL are not September call-ups. Henderson Alvarez, d'Arnaud, Cooper, Adeiny and Loewen would all be potential candidates. If d'Arnaud went west you might see Ryan Buddie or, less likely, Brian Jeroloman come up since the team traditionally adds a third catcher in September.

4/5 Farm Report

On the occasion of the news that Henderson Alvarez will get the call to start for the Blue Jays on Friday night when the Angels come to town, and taking advantage of an off day, I present to you the last (official) in-season Farm Report two days early. I anticipate more and more news this week about draft pick signings (several have been strongly implied on Twitter lately including something from Matt Dean today that was a pretty broad hint) so I want to go ahead and get this out of the way and clear the decks. Per the usual format, pitchers and hitters listed separately. There's enough being said about Brett Lawrie already that I will omit him here even though his time in Toronto has been very short.

Pitchers

1. Drew Hutchison - As I was writing this tonight Hutchinson was firmly cementing the #1 spot on this list by thoroughly dominating the Tampa Yankees, allowing a single baserunner in six shutout innings. Hutchison has given up a mere 15 runs in nine Hi-A ball appearances and seven of those came on one game (pretty much the only non-excellent start he's had since April). The right-handed Hutchison is still 2 weeks short of this 21st birthday. He might be, ya know, kinda good at this whole pitching thing.

2. Henderson Alvarez - Just four months older than Hutchison, the two men have very similar results this but Alvarez is thought to have somewhat better stuff - and he's pitching in AA. Since July 1, Alvarez has accumulated 39.2 IP, during which he's struck out 37 and walked . . . five.

3. Nestor Molina - Molina, whom I've raved about all year, also has very similar statistical results to the men above him - very low walk numbers, solid-to-excellent strikeout rates, excellent ERA and WHIP. the only major difference is age - Molina is over 19 months older. This, however, is somewhat mitigated by the reality that this is Molina's first year as a starter. He only has ~70 IP more as a pro than Hutchison does. It would be difficult to say which will ultimately be more successful.

4. Justin Nicolino - No we're not done yet with the high-K low-walk studs. Fiftenn months younger than Hutchsion, 2010 draftee Nicolino is a 6'3" lefty but his stat line in Vancouver is even better than that of the three pitchers above him on the list. The 19 year old has a 1.07 ERA in the Pioneer League and is clearly head and shoulders above the competition. I've been puzzled for a couple of weeks now why he hasn't been promoted to Lansing.

5. Noah Syndergaard - Another 2010 draftee off to a seriously impressive start, the 6'5" RHP is not yet 19. Still he ran off a string of five outstanding appearances in Bluefield before being promoted to Vancouver recently where his first start was more of the same. Stop me if you've heard this, but here's another guy with more strikeouts than innings pitched and a better than 3:1 K/BB ratio.

6. Mitchell Taylor - yet another 2010 draft choice, the 7th rounder Taylor trailed not very far off Synergaard's pace at Bluefield. The 6' LH starter has pitched in nine games (started five, but it's the nature of short-season ball to do "split-starts" with two starting pitchers) and has, you guessed it, more than a K per IP and a 3.5:1 ratio.

7. Brad Mills - the definition of the finesse lefty (think Jamie Moyer), Mills is now in Toronto but his work this year deserves mention as he's been called the most effective starter in the PCL. At first glance his stats are not on par with the younger men above him on the list, and his stuff is certainly far less remarkable, but doing what he's done in that league deserves notice just the same.

And one other starter for you to keep an eye on is Sean Nolin, another 2010 draftee who's doing very good work in Lansing.

Honorable mention for a few relievers doing excellent work: Danny Barnes is owning the competition in Lansing; Wes Ethridge and Bobby Korecky, both considered too old to be at the level they are pitching to be prospects, are nevertheless pitching very well; So is journeyman Sean Henn in Las Vegas.

Hitters

1. Travis d'Arnaud - He just keeps getting better. the weaknesses of BA as a stat aside, he has hit .386 since July 1 (and that after hitting .410 in May). the 22 year old catcher is becoming legitimately one of the best prospects in baseball.

2. Marcus Knecht - The thing to watch with the 2010 3rd round Canadian outfielder, beside the prolific hitting ability, is the steadily impressive BB:K rate. There's little to even express caution about in Knecht's offensive game.

3. Jake Marisnick - Knecht's team-mate who shares the outfield with him, Marisnick - a 6'4" CF - recovered from an average May in fine form. Since July 1 his OPS is over .950 and, important for a player of his age and experience, his walks almost equal his strikeouts over that span.

4. David Cooper - by now you are familiar with the scouting reports that suggest Cooper is a marginal guy as a prospect at best, and I'm not here to dispute them - still, the guy just keeps hitting. Over the last 10 games his BA is .405, and he hasn't had a full month this season in which his OPS wasn't over 1.000 fueled by prolific walks and a ton of doubles.

5. Anthony Gose - the NH center fielder is riding his hottest stretch of the year, with an OPS of .982 in his last 10 games. He's still working on some aspects of his game, but it's worth remembering that he's less than 8 months older than Marisnick and he's two levels higher.

6. Adam Loewen - Since May 1 the one-time-pitcher turned RF has been raking. His BB:K ratio has been a bit troublesome but at this writing, he's last 10 games has seen him draw 9 walks against 10 strikeouts. If his walk rate comes up for good he'll have little left to prove in AAA.

7. Eric Acre - shout out here to the 25th round pick in this year's draft. The 5'9" catcher-turned outfielder is ripping up the competition for the GCL Jays. He had some off-field issues that reportedly dropped his stock in the draft (the Jays drafted him in the 27th round in 2010 as well but he didn't sign) and he was a bit of a bargain but still, this is surprising. His OPS is 1.067 and his OBP is .432 despite a BA of only .270 - the former stat is second in the league and the latter is 4th - oh, and he leads the GCL with 11 homers (in 115 AB).

HM: Adeiny Hechevarria - an offensive non-entity (despite having been called perhaps the best defensive SS in professional baseball) for most of the season but over the last 10 games (7/27 - 8/7) he's hitting .381 with a .970 OPS. This is probably just a hot streak but if it's a sign he's figured something out (new mechanics for instance) then look out.

Big week ahead, and an exciting finish to the season afoot on all levels.

All Hail Redux

You know, lost in the uber-hype around Brett Lawrie is how often we are doing this sort of thing lately? Just a little over a week ago we were all losing our composure over Colby Rasmus (and for good reason) Late last season we got giddy over Kyle Drabek and powered-up by JP Arencibia. Before the end of this season we might get a chance to swoon over Henderson Alvarez. these are heady times!

I was tempted to squeeze out the time to gush over his promotion Thursday, and again Friday - but a rush-job love-fest would be something easy to find all over, why do I need to do that too? One of the things I've found akward about blogging is the unwritten rule that if something big happens with your team, good or bad, you rush to the keyboard and pound out a response. for various reasons - some selfish - I've never done that much. I prefer to marinate a bit in the news and the reactions around me and left my thoughts be informed by the wisdom - and nonsense - of others.

But having had 48 hours to meditate on the arrival of Lawrie I don't end up with much more than what I had Thursday. He's a major milestone on a virtual autobahn of team-building, as was Rasmus. It's true that there will be a constant undercurrent of hand-wringing about his defense, but he's not going to be anything close to the issue Encarnacion was in that regard. If he turns out to be "below average" no one will care if he hits like everyone thinks he will. One need only to read the quotes from John Farrell, who's thin veneer of grizzled baseball cliches was not nearly sufficient to cover up his school-girl gushing over Lawrie, in order to pick up on the idea that this is not just another prospect.

On the other hand, many fans' comments seem to forget the process, discussing hitting him 2nd or even fifth or even THIRD. Let's not get nuts people. I quibble a bit with Farrell's lineup last night (I can't understand Hill still batting in front of Arencibia) but Lawrie at #9 is actually excellent, IMO. if he gets off to a fast start he basically acts as a trigger to restart the lineup one batter early. He gets the benefit of more veteran players feeling out pitchers he's unfamiliar with, and then from his first at-bat onward, he's at the head of a line that goes Lawrie > Escobar > Thames > Bautista > Lind > Encarnacion > Rasmus...how can you NOT love that? It's far better than hitting him in front of Hill.

If you will pardon me a tangent into rosterbation here, looking forward to 2012 the team has no need to add a starter at any position from outside the organization except at 2B. and if they fail to scrounge up an above average guy there (the market, either FA or trade, is remarkably thin) then honestly, you can win a LOT of games with one hole in your lineup - it's not going to kill us as long as he's hidden away at the bottom of the order. it does remain to be sorted out how you deal with Snider and Thames if you bring back EE - can you bring the older guy back on the understanding that he's strictly a reserve? I mean you CAN - you have an option - but can you in good conscience? if so, problem solved. Let Thames DH and serve as your primary OF reserve, and let EE back DH and 1B and be your emergency 3B - it's a valuable role if he'll take it. Of course, Davis will rust but that can't be helped.

Speaking of Snider - I understand the raw emotions concerning sending him down and on an emotional level i share them - but you have to think Adam Lind has had a nice talk with him and told him "I got the T-shirt." What Alex Anthopoulos is saying is dead on - this happens with young players all the time and the idea that he's out of favor or needs a change of scenery or some such is just silly. He DOES neet to get his plate control back (only one walk on his most recent recall) and I'm concerned that the modified swing might not be as conducive to power as the one he originally came up with, and in that regard more work - regular work - is a good thing.
But he's 23, and he has almost 900 at bats in the majors. One need look no further than Alex Gordon to see why patience is advised. Is it possible he ends up a perpetual underachiever? Sure. But we are a long long way away from concluding that.

Among the other moves made Thursday which are naturally swept aside in the fooforall is the recall of Luis Perez for the bullpen and the disabling of Carlos Villanueva with what is essentially a phantom injury. There's every reason to assume that Villanueva simply ran out of gas after the break. He had a very good nine game run that was invaluable but ultimately that's likely his role - be a very good reliever who can step into that emergency starter role if need be. A contender needs a guy like that.
There will be a need for a fifth starter soon and while the easy answer would be to give those starts to Jesse Litsch, the team is saying publicly they want to find out how he works as a reliever and the early returns are favorable enough (2 walks and a hit in 5 IP against 9K) that this may well continue. If it does, then things might get very interesting if Farrell was serious about the potential the team could seek to take a look at Henderson Alvarez. Will Brad Mills already in the rotation and Kyle Drabek still refining his game, there doesn't seem to be another obvious option once Litsch is ruled out. Dustin McGowan is doing fantastic but he hasn't pitched above A-ball or more than 3 IP this season. I look forward to seeing him in September but anything earlier than August 27 is too aggressive to be realistic.

One other point on pitching - the weakened bullpen. both this year and next year need attention but i don't think it's a stretch to say the team is somewhat resigned to less than great work in some quarters this year.

The current pen is Rauch/Francisco/Camp/Janssen/Litsch/Perez/Ledzma and Miller. Miller really has no business here, Ledzma is very slightly better but no good team should want him. Rauch is having his worst year in a while (other than his mediocre tour in Arizona) and Camp seems to be in decline. that leaves four guys you can have some confidence in - five if you count Villanueva when he comes off the DL. While PJ Walters is no prize, I'm a bit puzzled he's not up here instead of Miller or Ledzma. Surely he'll be back on September 1. Sean Henn and possibly Danny Farquar are probably better than those two bums as well, though Henn is very much a scrub. Starters Chad Beck and Joel Carreno are other options though there's been no mention of calling them.

Looking ahead to next year, the core of Janssen, Listch, Villanueva and Perez is still pretty sound (though without a long track record in some cases. One could make a reasonable argument for any of those three righties getting a shot at closing but the team doesn't seem so inclined. if that doesn't change we can anticipate a repeat of last winter with a coule of potential closers imported (among the candidates, Francisco isn't a bad option). Also, a reliable more veteran LHP would be on the agenda. but the art of bullpen construction is highly unpredictable. if it was me, I'd try to persuade the Giants to trade Sergio Romo or seen someone similar to him (the Braves have some options) even if you have to pay "too much for a reliever" to do so.

Still, there's no real need to sweat the bullpen - all too often when we think it's fine it stinks, and when we think it stinks it turns out fine. Relievers are weird like that.

Lots of rain in Baltimore as I type - might be looking at a double header tomorrow if things don't change.

Edit to add: I've been meaning to include a link to a wonderfully lustful article by Callum at Mop-Up Duty about the potential of the Jays breaking the bank for Yu Darvish this winter. Consider me on board.