Morning Update

Slow news day, really. Let's launch into some bits of interest:

* The Star chimes in on ex-D-Rays reliever Lance Carter, a non-roster invitee to spring training who was banished to the Land of Wind and Ghosts last year. Zwolinski really reaches by calling him "a dark horse candidate to crack the Jays bullpen this spring." Carter might be a wonderful human being, but he hasn't got a chance in hell of cracking our bullpen. Minor League filler at best, which is fine. You need guys like this in the system.

* Uncle Griff sees something he likes, and that thing/person is none other than Dustin McGowan (aka Mr. Burns)! Griff says the Jays need to look to their post-Doc/AJ rotation (!!! the latter, yes, but the former?) and "should start promoting a top of the rotation with more upside." Oh my fucking God, what a revolutionary strategy that will turn the baseball world on its head! Blah blah blah, Burnett's worth determined by his Win total, some bollocks about about a pitcher supposed "rank" in the rotation being important, etc., skimming along until BLAM:

Meanwhile, McGowan, who will pitch at 26, matched Burnett's top win total in his first full season. He had Tommy John surgery in '04, but the big Georgia native has not been on the disabled list since returning from his rehab. McGowan must be the Jays' second-best pitcher, and the transition is happening before our eyes.

Well, fucko, you just jinxed him. Mr. Burns is now bound to the first of our pitchers to hit the DL this year.

* The Globe reports that AJ really took it easy in the offseason to save his bullets for the regular season. He's not ready to throw live BP, etc. Seems like a non-story...

* Troy Glaus takes the high road on comments from Doc that might have be interpreted as a diss. To refresh your memory, Doc said he was enthused about Rolen's arrival because it brought "a sense of urgency to the team which was lacking in 2007." Instead of ripping a respected former teammate a new one:

Glaus listened and paused before he answered.

"I don't think anyone with (the Jays) wanted to win more than I did," Glaus said. "Would I have rather stayed healthy? No doubt. No one wants to get hurt."

No slight was intended and none perceived. Good luck in STL, Big Troy.

* Gary Sheffield is feuding with ex-agent/Satanic Affairs liason Scott Boras. These two assholes deserve each other.

* Manny's saying he wants to retire with the Bosox. Give it a few days...

* Will the Mets and Phillies throw down this year? Players from both sides seem to think they will. I guess this goes to show that most players are hardly more mature than your average bulletin board poster.

-- Johnny Was

Noted in passing. . .

Mixed in with all the "bigger" stories (like how many different synonyms for "scrappy" a professional "journalist" can find to apply to David Eckstien in any given news cycle) as the Jays camp opens in earnest this week were a couple of other bits about young Jays players which caught my eye. Props to Jordan Bastain who is approaching Blair-like levels of respect from me for not writing the lazy story so many others phone in.

Among the things he brings to my attention is that the Jays have now trended back in the direction of keeping Curtis Thigpen behind the plate. Try as I might, I have utterly failed to pin down the exact reasoning behind the Jays' sudden fixation with Robinzon Diaz to the point where Thigpen was looking like a man without a job. I'm no professional but I haven't seen any evidence that Thiggy is not still the logical first choice (among in-house candidates) to Follow Zaun.

In fact, I think that Thigpen could be a player much like, well, Gregg Zaun as a major leaguer - and by that I mean the Zaun who wears a Jays uniform, not that fringe backup who wandered around the majors for a decade before that. On the other hand, I don't see anything about Diaz that I think translates well to the job of starting major league catcher. Whether or not Thigpen pans out is obviously something that remains to be seen - but I don't see why he doesn't deserve a fair chance.

Hell, in point of fact, I'm rooting for Rod Barajas either break a leg, or suck so hard the Jays dump him by June - because I think Thigpen needs to be in the majors learning the staff and watching Zaun work before the day comes when he's expected to step into the starters' role and prove his worth.

Another brief note at the end of that article says that David Purcey is turning heads in Jays camp. I admit to a bias in favor of Purcey, I want to see the big Lefty silence the negativists who insist he and Romero are busts and wasted draft picks. Nothing grates on my nerves so much as the fan who insists on playing Eeyore about his team, moaning to anyone who will listen about how bad things are and how it's only a matter of time till it all goes wrong again as if we were the Cubs.

Fuck that noise. I can handle realism, I enjoy it. Want to talk about the very slim odds Russ Adams ever has even a marginally useful career? I'm right there with you. But at the same time, writing off a talent like Purcey because he took a while to gain some respectable control is unnecessarily gloomy, and proclaiming Romero a bust before he even reaches 23 is moronic. So I'm rooting for Purcey to kick ass this season, and every bit of good news in that regard you can expect to see me comment on.

Disclaimer - As much as I hate the guys who are quick to call a guy a bust, I have to admit that there are guys on the other end of that spectrum who can piss you off too. You know who I mean: the guy who still thinks John-Ford Griffin is a talented guy who got unnecessarily shafted by the Jays? Yeah. I hate that guy too.


~WillRain

Around the Horn

Some points of interest, not all Jays-related:

* The dimmer New York Post-reading bulbs of Yankee Nation still refuse to believe that Derek Jeter is a pretty awful defensive shortstop despite hard statistical evidence to prove them wrong. Lots of steam and excuses, but nowhere do the Yankees scouts or executives quoted show any numbers to refute the findings of the Penn State Study. I'm sure he smells like a pleasant dream, though. I could really go a bunch of different witty, biting ways in closing this paragraph out, but I just can't be bothered. Yankees suck!

* A little over a year ago, the Jays and Rays may or may not have had talks about a Shaun Marcum-Elijah Dukes deal. Rumblings were squelched pretty early and I think JP really dodged a bullet (no pun intended), by passing on that one (not that he was ever interested by the looks of it). No one has disputed the 23-year-old Dukes' talent; more alarming is behaviour you would probably associate more with a street hood on The Wire than a baseball phenom.

The Washington Post lays out the recent troubles of the newly-acquired National:

Dukes's real father has been in prison for second-degree murder since 1996, and Dukes's own arrest history goes back nearly as far. Since 1997, he has been arrested at least three times for battery and once for assault, records show. He fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006, court records show -- two of which were born within eight days of each other -- and last summer admitted frequent marijuana use.

Last May, he threatened his estranged ex-wife and her children in a voice mail in which he said, "Hey, dawg. It's on, dawg. You dead, dawg. . . . Your kids, too." In June, the Rays placed him on the temporary inactive list, ending his season. He has also been suspended several times from his minor and major league teams for various confrontations with coaches, umpires and teammates.

The Nats certainly did take a gamble on a volatile player, but they can afford to as part of their on-going rebuilding efforts. Dukes, who will probably end up as the Nats fourth OF this season, promises that he's turned a corner after leaving some of the negative influences of his home town behind and will be on his best behaviour from now on.

In all seriousness, I'm hoping Dukes can get his affairs in order and go on to some success in baseball. If so many fans were willing to cheer on Josh Hamilton's comeback last year, I think we should extend the same courtesy here.

* Is Big Papi's surgically-repaired knee alright? The man himself says yes, but Red Sox Nation will fret about their loveable 268-lb hero all year long anyway. The real shocker of the piece is Big Papi's admission that "I like hitting home runs. I’m not going to lie to you about it.” Where is my disbelieving emoticon?

* The Royals say they don't want to be flipped to the NL in a scheme that would see the Brewers return to the AL Central. Both were proud franchises when I was a wee lad in the days of 1980s baseball card sticker scrapbooks; the Brewers are now a pretty hot young team, but there's really no end in sight to the terminal crappiness of the Royals even with a slick GM like Dayton Moore at the helm. Here's an idea: why not reconstitute them as a WNBA franchise?

* Fluff pieces on Eckstein in the Sun and the Globe. Here's a short English to baseball journo dictionary:

scrappy = tries hard all the time, almost always fails, but gets dirty in the process
throwback = no power, doesn't walk
all-heart = small, not very good
a team player = tries to mask own faults as a hitter by bunting frequently

And so on... Don't get me wrong, I like having Eckstein here, it's just the cliche-riddled drivel that comes with him that puts me off.

* Matt Stairs, the MVP of my heart, gets similar treatment here and here. Yes, we know, he loves hockey, but no mention of his wacky, off-season adventures thwarting Mr. Leahey and Randy with Ricky, Julian, and Bubbles down at Sunnyvale Trailer Park?

-- Johnny Was

Rolen the Dice?

Let me follow up to that last post with a bit of self indulgence.

I do not want to distract from what my point was there by going off on this tangent but I want to get this thought out there too - it is an opinion that you may very well hear from me again, repeatedly, in the coming weeks:

Scott Rolen is a "difference maker" - no, Scott Rolen is THE Difference Maker for the Toronto Blue Jays.

I can't back this up with statistical comparisons between Rolen and Glaus (and I liked Glaus fine) but I believe this team is on an entirely different level, as a contender, by having Scott Rolen in the clubhouse and on the field. There are all sorts of things, inate and circumstantial, which keep 28 teams out of the World Series every year, and any prediction in that regard is so much guesswork....but I tell you truthfully that before Rolen, my opinion was "we might be able to make the playoffs and hope our pitching carries us a while." My opinion today? We have as solid a chance at winning the World Series as any team in the AL.

Cal that homerism if you like, but it's also an illustration of the fact that I'm more excited about the acquisition of Scott Rolen than I have been about any player in a long long time. So don't be surprised if a lot of my commentary reflects that opinion.

~WillRain

The Laziness of Conventional Wisdom

Maybe I'm the wrong one to throw around the word "lazy" too easily. I'd be rather stupid if I didn't give props to the hard work and sacrifice that lies behind the scenes of being a sportswriter on a beat, and I've never been one to keep nose-to-grindstone in a workaholic fashion.

Nevertheless, I can't help but observe (and this is not directly related to the previous posts dealing with Dick Griffin, though it certainly has application to his work more often than not) how easy it is for those whose paycheck is derived from their ability to observe, and comment upon, the realities of a major league sport. Whether it be broadcasters, commentators, or beat writers, far too often the conventional wisdom is assumed in an "everyone knows" fashion despite being largely or even totally unsupportable. Naturally, this is a self re-enforcing cycle since casual fans consider themselves informed when they can cite the conventional wisdom back and forth to each other over a beer and assume themselves knowledgeable.

The great entertainment value of the blogosphere, to me, is the degree to which intelligent people challenge, albeit with wit, sarcasm and derision, the truisms which make up the "conventional wisdom."
Still, doesn't keep me from being pissed off when I see a professional phone in a piece of work which contributes nothing but to recycle another one of those falsehoods for the naive to lap up and take as gospel ("since it was written by a professional, it MUST be right, right?"). Take, for instance, this take on the arrival of Scott Rolen which appeared in today's Star. I hesitate to rip on it's author directly, but I shiver to think at all the uninformed know-it-alls who will show up on message boards and call in shows and local pubs who will assume, and loudly proclaim, that Rolen is a ticking time bomb who is sure to explode at any moment and wreck the upcoming season.

Bullshit. Any professional journalist who's trying to write a quality piece (as opposed to just knocking out 500 words to beat a deadline) might have taken the time to reflect upon the full story behind those two incidents in Rolen's long career. He might have noted that Bowa was a notorious hot-head who couldn't get along with anyone and lost his job in no small measure because of his lack of self control. Such a writer might have noted LaRussa's notorious bent for being a prima donna who has people-skill issues of his own. Does this mean Rolen is a prince-among-men who shares no fault in the incidents? Of course not. but it does provide a balanced view of the situation which would leave the reader with a clearer view of the Jay's new player.
Such a writer might even have gone so far as to note that Rolen is widely praised among his peers as a dedicated, passionate, selfless, driven ballplayer who is a leader on and off the field and who not only often receives the praise "he does all the little things right" but furthermore, considers that the best praise he could get. To my knowledge, there is not ONE quote floating around the net from another baseball player that speaks negatively of Scott Rolen.

That, it seems to me, might be an important thing to say in an article which uses such confrontational metaphors to discuss the potential for Rolen's relationship with John Gibbons. Furthermore, a good article would not leave you thinking Gibbons was the only one to blame for the blowups with Hillenbrand and Lilly.

Is it too much to ask that a professional journalist consider these things if an unpaid blogger can easily see them?

I hope that, whatever else you may find on this blog, one thing you will never find is a failure to challenge the flaws in the "conventional wisdom."

~WillRain

You Don't Know Dick, 2nd ed.

Since Johnny was so kind to point out that Griffin had posted something, I think it's time for the second installment of our recurring series, You Don't Know Dick.

In today's installment, we'll focus on "Why clogging the bases is better than not clogging the bases".

For a Griffin blog, I'd have to say it wasn't half bad. I'm not going to bother going into the anti-JP stuff Johnny referred to, but I think it's important to address several problems with this statement...

Q: Hi Richard.

I have been anxiously awaiting the new baseball season and I am glad to see Spring Training has arrived. I will be taking in some games in Dunedin for the first time ever and I am very excited to see how this year’s edition of the club pans out this spring. Many Jays fans, myself included, were frustrated last year with the inability of the offence to manufacture runs. It often appeared that John Gibbons and his team were banking on a big hit to cash in some runs instead of playing small ball - hit and run, bunting and sacrificing outs to advance runners. My question is this: Do you see a change in style emerging this year with the acquisition of Eckstein as our leadoff guy? Where do Vernon and Rios fit into the batting order? I believe that we need to take better advantage of their speed. Should the Big Hurt be dropped in the order to fifth or sixth as to avoid him clogging up the bases in the early innings? Thanks for your time. I hope to spark up some Blue Jays chat with you in Dunedin.

A: That’s a very astute observation about the "inability o manufacture runs." In an interview early this spring, Aaron Hill said very much the same thing, but when I asked Gibbons about it, he claimed that it wasn’t a big deal and didn’t cost the Jays many games. Of course, if he stated the obvious about it being a devastating weakness of the ’07 club, he would have been pointing a finger directly at fired hitting coach Mickey Brantley, a good friend of his. So don’t expect Gibby to go along with that indictment of situational hitting.

But you will, indeed, see a different offence with Eckstein at the top of the order. Most of the hit-and-run action will come at the bottom of the order with Aaron Hill, Gregg Zaun and the others. However, when Reed Johnson is batting second, it will happen at the top.

As for the batting order, I believe that Rios is a better third-place hitter than Wells and that Wells should bat fourth behind Rios. After those two big righthanded bats, the Jays should hit the doubles-machine Lyle Overbay with Thomas hitting sixth ahead of Scott Rolen. Against lefthanders, it would be okay to move Thomas up to fifth.

First off, I think the Jays will be doing a lot of hit & runs with the top of the lineup. Overbay's shown he's got great contact skills, and being left handed he could take advantage of that when Eckstein is on. Rios would be more than capable of doing this for when Eck/Lyle are on base, so it's not like the hit/run will be used the most at the bottom of the lineup. Hell, Eck will be doing a fair amount of hitting when Zaun/Hill are on base. I think what he meant to say was that most of the running will be done by the bottom of the order...but who really knows what Griffin means now-a-days.

Another thing the reader asks was whether Thomas should bat lower to avoid clogging the bases. Griffin agrees, and the proof is that he doesn't believe Thomas should hit higher than 6th against RHP. I totally agree, I don't want Thomas clogging up the bases when Vernon has gotten on base against RHP to the tune of a 306 OBP over the past 3 years.

Dick, I got something to tell you....

CLOGGING UP THE BASES IS A GOOD THING! It means you have runners on, and I'm sure you're aware of this, being a baseball writer and all, but in order to win games you need to score runs. And in order to score runs you need....runners. So more runners = more potential runs = more games won.

So now that we've got that out of the way...

Thomas deserves to hit no lower than 4th against RHP. He's the cleanup crew, and this isn't really debatable. He can clog the bases so that "doubles machine" Lyle Overbay can give base clogging Thomas a chance to score.

As for an inability to manufacture runs last year...

At any given point - Glaus, Overbay, Johnson, & Zaun were injured. They were replaced by McDonald/Clark/Smith, Stairs or Phillips, Stairs or Lind, and Phillips/Fasano. Excluding Stairs, these terrific offensive juggernauts probably had a combined line of 250/270/300. When you've got these 4 guys in the lineup, it's pretty damn tough to score runs, because... nobody is clogging up the bases. The guys in front of them won't score because those guys can't get a hit, and after they've gotten themselves out there's nobody for Rios and the other healthy regulars to drive in.

So manufacturing runs really wouldn't have made much of a difference. What did this team in is the fact that it came in 27th in the majors in OPS vs. RHP. Had the team put up a better OPS than say, 715 (which was better than the awesome lineups of Kansas City, Washington, and San Fransisco), they would have scored more runs. You realize how sad that is? 14 of 16 NL teams that used pitchers to hit, were more successful against RHP than the Jays were. Manufacturing runs isn't gonna make a difference when you can't hit 75% of the leagues pitching.

I also hope when he said Johnson is batting second, it was a typo, and that he's batting first, and only against LHP. I figure he just made a typo. After all, the keys are right next to each other...

That's it for now, but tune in for another installment of You Don't Know Dick...

An update of sorts on the crazy Shannon Stewart rumour from yesterday. Blair says JP says he made an offer "weeks ago", never heard anything back, and isn't saying whether it still stands. Blair goes on to note that the Jays already have about four guys vying for playing time out in LF (Sparky, Stairsy, Lindy, and sometimes Scooter), but doesn't editorialize in the slightest on whether bringing Stew in is a) worth it, or b) probable. Bastian cautiously chimed in "adding Stewart may or may not be out of the question, it seems an unlikely scenario."

I'm willing to bet this thing just dies a slow natural death, which is why I advised you all not to get your knickers in a twist yesterday.

UPDATE: Zwolinski clarifies that this whole thing was made up on the blogosphere. Woops.

A rumour spread on the internet last night that the Jays were on the verge of bringing back former outfielder Shannon Stewart. Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi confirmed that Toronto offered Stewart a contract over the winter, but that the deal has since been taken off the table.

Wilner was pretty gutted that Tom Cheek was overlooked again for the Ford C. Frick Award for Broadcast Excellence. He makes a passionate case for a local broadcasting great and all-around decent human being; take two minutes to give it read. There's a temptation for me here to start on about how players are punished for playing in Canada come award time, but I'll leave that for another day.

Zwolinski has a piece on Scott Rolen's arrival in camp. It's going to be nice after he's established himself with the Jays beat over the few more months so we don't have to hear any more speculation over whether he and Gibby will have a bare-knuckle boxing match at some point this season. His managers in Philly and St. Louis, Larry Bowa and Tony LaRussa, are both well-known as prima donna a-holes. Gibby's two dust-ups came with petulant, spoiled little brats Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly. Had either of them pulled the shit they did while playing for Billy Martin they'd have ended up stabbed in the heart and floating face down in the Hudson River.

There is a zero percent chance of any trouble from Rolen this year.

Also from the Star is Griffin's new mailbag. They've got a new format up for this year and Uncle Griff has apparently traded in his typewriter for a computer. I was skimming this thing just to get a sense of it and was about to write "nothing too too egregious this week" until I saw reference to "manufacturing runs" and "when Reed Johnson's hitting second." And then there's the typical JP bash in the next question. Twiiiiiiiitchy! Hit this m'f'er, stat!

Interestingly (sort of), Griff's bio notes that he went to Concordia, which is pretty much grounds for a rendition to the second worst military prison in Egypt these days. Let's hope no customs misfortune befalls him while he's travelling around the States this year.

--Johnny Was

Crazy Rumour File: Shannon Stewart

Rotoworld (via the Seattle Post-Intelligencer) dropped a little nugget of interest this afternoon:

Free agent Shannon Stewart said he has a firm offer from only the Blue Jays.

Stewart's old club would probably be taking him on only as a fifth outfielder, and since the Jays play on turf, it's not an ideal situation for him. He'll continue to look at other possibilities.

Must we pick up all of Billy Beane's retreads? In all seriousness, let's not get our knickers in twist prematurely, but this does open up an interesting line of discussion.

The right-handed hitting component of our LF platoon is pretty much disposable as soon as Adam Lind breaks. And Adam Lind will break, ye of little faith. Reed, god love him and his sweet-ass Shelby Cobra, is really little more than a placeholder. He's probably best-suited for 4th OF duties anyway because of his rather unimpressive .267/.328/.383 career line against RHP. He does have a pretty good arm and can play all three OF position. Without checking numbers or anything, I reckon that all things considered he'd be a slightly above average backup OF in the AL.

Shannon Stewart's weaknesses are as glaring now as they were when he was a Jay. First, my wife has a stronger arm than he does and she's played catch maybe all of three times in her life. Second, Stew always had nagging hamstring injuries that prevented him from ever taking advantage of his plus speed. "The fastest man who never steals bases" I used to say.

But on to the good, he's always been a much better hitter than Reed, with a nearly identical OPS against lefties and righties (.796 v.s .795). He always hit well in the Skydome/Rogers Centre (.303/.374/.452); granted, most of those ABs came when he was a younger, better player. But lo and behold, the most shocking discovery of all is that Reed really isn't that much better of a defender measured by career LF Range Factor and Zone Rating: 2.01 and .914 for Reed as opposed to 2.06 and .874 for Stew.

Is JP considering signing Stew and dumping Sparky? Who knows, but I can't really see any reason why you'd carry both of them.

If it comes down to a question of who you want more as your semi-regular LF/Matt Stairs platoon partner--and I've always been skeptical that it would've been a stict platoon of Johnson and Stairs--in 2008, I think I would grudingly come down in favour of Stew. The logic being that, like Scott Rolen, he hits LHP and RHP equally well, meaning you don't have the weak spot against righties in LF we did whenever Reed was playing over the last few years. And aside from his girlish arm, he's not that bad defensively. You'd lose some flexibility to give V-Dub or Rios a day off and shuffle your OFs accordingly, but how often do you need to do that anyway? Stairs can play RF in a pinch...

And I never really thought I'd be saying this, but the possibity exists that Stew might be in better shape of the two. Whereas Stew got into 146 games last year, Reed had some pretty major back surgery and wasn't quite right at the dish or in the field at any point after his return. Whether or not there are any lingering effects we'll have to wait and see.

There's much to love about our dear Sparky, but I wouldn't lament his departure if it made the club 1% more competitive this season.

-- Johnny Was

Sports Illustrated should stick to swimsuit models

While there's no real point in getting upset over projections about the Jays season, I thought this was somewhat deserving of a good ole fashioned beat down. So with that in mind, let's start off with Matt Stairs.

Wow, he's still here? The Jays don't have an obvious spot for Matt Stairs, with a full-time DH and good young players on the outfield corners. Nevertheless, they signed the veteran hitter to a two-year deal for just $3.25 million this winter, a bargain.

Personally I thought the most obvious position for him to play was LF. Lind would have been a good option, but Stairs is a pretty good one for LF. But that's just me, and I just thought it was pretty obvious that Stairs would play in LF.

Winter grade: B- The Stairs deal was canceled out by the inexplicable decision to sign David Eckstein on the heels of giving a two-year deal to John McDonald. Judging Glaus-for-Rolen is guesswork, because it's all about whether Rolen can stay healthy. The trade does upgrade the infield defense for a team that is loaded with ground-ball pitchers.

Actually, it's the other way around. See, the John McDonald signing, to have him as the starter, was batshit insane. Yeah, he's a great defender, but that 279 OBP he achieved last year kinda makes me worried as a starter. If anything, the Eckstein signing bailed him out of that. I think what you meant to say was the Scutaro deal was stupid, because later on he'd sign Eckstein. This next one is a dandy though...

NRI to watch: Jamie Vermilyea remains one of my favorite minor-league pitchers, a ground-ball machine with a career major-league ERA of 0.00 in six innings. It would be nice to see him get a chance while he's young enough to turn it into something. He's a healthier version of Brandon League.

So apparently Vermilyea throws 100 MPH and gets 70 or so % GB ratios. Go figure, I never knew that!

If anything, League is going to be one of the best RP on the team, and I fully expect him to outperform Accardo.

Job battle to track: McDonald is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the AL, one of the few players whose glove really does carry his bat. While Eckstein provides more OBP, McDonald's overall value will be higher. This is especially true for the Blue Jays, who have four ground-ball pitchers in the rotation, and four others in the bullpen. If Eckstein is the starter, the Jays will be hurt considerably, but if McDonald is the starter, they could be among the league leaders in run prevention.

Like I said - I'm a fan of McDonald. He can play terrific defense, and in limited time he's an asset. But McDonald better than Eckstein? I want whatever he's smoking.

Now, he's right that the Jays COULD be league leaders in run prevention with Mac. But what he fails to realize, is that having a 279 OBP is detrimental to the team, to the point where all the extra D he provides isn't valuable enough to cover for a 279 OBP.

Finally...

With Thomas and A.J. Burnett probably leaving after this season,

Yeah, someone should probably tell him if Thomas plays well, his option vests.

So there you have it. The Jays are apparently retarded for signing Matt Stairs when he had no position, but geniouses for making it a good contract. They're bad for signing Eck when they had Mac, and Thomas's vesting option is irrelevant. How do these people still have jobs?

Moneyball Post-Mortem

Inspired by the recent retirement of Jeremy Brown, the B-cupped A's farmhand and star of Michael Lewis' hit Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, New York Times journo Murray Chass had taken a retrospective look back at Billy Beane's draft strategy and, more specifically, the 2002 draft that's at the heart of the book. Six years is a reasonable time frame for a draft evaluation and this is a great idea for a piece, but I found it far too brief. Still worth a look, though.

For cave-dwelling Taliban who've never heard of Brown, he was a catcher who absolutely raked and had great OBP skills in college ball at Mississippi but didn't draw any real draft interest outside the A's organization because of his chunky physique. An oft-repeated maxim from Beane when scouts pointed out that an amateur player didn't have a "good body" was "we're not selling jeans." Well, if there was a Jeremy Brown brand of jeans they'd only be available at Walmart (because people who buy clothes there tend to be on the large side...) Nevertheless, the A's took Brown 35th overall in the 2002 entry draft. Granted, they did have 7 of the first 39 picks, but taking Brown so highly (the Bosox selected him 573rd overall only a year earlier) was either laughable or baffling to most of the baseball world.

Brown never really panned out. He stalled at AA for three years and had a pedestrian AAA campaign in his age 26 season. Last year at 27 he seemingly put it together in Sacremento to the tune of a .833 OPS, but mysteriously called it quits at the end of the season. Stat-haters and the anti-Beane set will feel vindicated by his failure, but really, where does this relate to some greater Moneyball themes?

Back in 2002, Beane's first 7 picks yielded Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton, Mark Teahen, Brown, John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, and Stephen Obenchain.

Swish and Blanton and bona fides; perhaps not stars (though I'm expecting big things from Swish in Chicago this year), they're solid upper tier players at their respective positions. Teahen is a solid little ballplayer who can play 3rd, 1st and the OF, but I think the jury's still out on whether he's really more than a utilityman plus (and I don't mean that derisively). Brown had a brief cup of coffee and has retired from the game. McCurdy, Fritz and Obenchain look like no-hopers. All were college players.

Chass notes:

Four of the seven players picked by Oakland (57 percent) among the first 39 picks in that draft have played in the majors, including Brown. Of the other 32 picks, 20 have played in the majors (62.5 percent).

The difference is in the number of high school players in those groups. Oakland drafted none while other teams selected 18, and 11 have played in the majors, including Prince Fielder, B. J. Upton, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, James Loney, Jeff Francoeur, Matt Cain and Adam Loewen.

From Beane’s perspective, college position players are the safest selections while high school pitchers are the riskiest. Yet Hamels, Kazmir, Cain and Loewen are pitchers drafted out of high school.

It's at this point that a JP-hater would start on a familiar diatribe against exclusively drafting college players. In fairness, this was one draft we're talking about and perhaps, over the span of a decade, those "success %" would skew more towards the college players. Someone else can look it up. Everyone has put their two cents in on the topic over the past 5 years, but it bears repeating that the point of Moneyball wasn't "this is how you find the Absolute Truth through stats", but rather "this is how poor teams make the most of the limited resources at their disposal." We were a similiarly poor team up until 2005/2006, so forgive JP for trying to apply some of the lessons he thought he'd learned from his mentor. In any event, it's worth having a look at the article in full.

ELSEWHERE:

I hate to beat on a dead horse, but I've never really liked V-Dub for a variety of reasons. I think he's too aggressive at the dish, over-rated defensively, more than a bit immature, and disgustingly overpaid. If the Jays can't re-sign Rios long-term because of the $126 million albatross contract they gave V-Dub last offseason, I'm just going to shit.

Anyhoo, Bob Elliot reveals that V-Dub is a Sensitive, Caring Man who cries when he's not playing well, or when he's watching chick flicks like The Notebook. But the best part:

"We believe in Christ, Charlene [his high school sweetheart and wife] is my rock. Charlene told me I should 'continue to do what I'm doing, keep working hard,' " Wells said. "Charlene said 'you have to put God first. No matter how good things are, no matter how bad, God has to come first.' "

Some comments:

It's ok for a man to cry if he's in extreme physical pain or absolutely legless after a night on the piss, but not under any other circumstances, period. And I just hate the God shit from pro athletes. If you pray, pray; just keep it a private affair, m'kay? Lenny Dykstra sold his soul to Satan, but it least he didn't have to go around telling people about it.

Those of you who are reading this are most likely addicts of a sort (the drug being baseball), just like me. But when our thirst for Jays news leads to revelations of such an intensely personal nature I can't help but feeling a bit ashamed of myself...

I'm sure I'll get over it, though.

-- Johnny Was

"Mature Beyond His Years"

That's how Blue Jays GM JP Riccairdi described Mega-prospect Travis Snider in a wonderful behind-the-scenes article by Jordan Bastian on the Jays' official site. That is a well-worn cliche, but this is perhaps a more specific remark to Snider's personal story:
"You always draft players with the idea that you like them, and then you get certain players who you find you end up liking even more. All the things he is as a player, he's probably more so as a person."

It's a great piece and gives you a lot of insight into the guy who's looking destined to be one of Toronto's most popular players before his career is done.

~WillRain

From the Morning Papers

Aw, yeaaaaa. The winter lull is over and we're actually starting to get some meatier stories out of the professional journos down in Dunedin. Mark Zwolinski at the Star writes that Alex Rios has reportedly come to camp sporting a mohawk, staying true true to his punk rock roots. Lexi has skipped winter ball in favour of the gym and apparently he's been launching moon rockets in early BP.

His power has improved noticeably, especially to straightaway centre – he blasted the first pitch he saw over the screen in dead centre – and the gap in right-centre.

Also, JP and Rios' agent, Paul Kinzer, are planning to get serious on contract talks. Zwolinski sees a 4-year deal as a minimum target. It doesn't sound like the proposed deal to send him off to the Giants back in December put him off too much. After a Rios deal is squared away JP will likely move straight on to hammering out an extension for Aaron Hill.

Wishing Rios well with the new 'do. It didn't work out to well for this loser.

Elsewhere, Venezualan drunkard Gustavo Chacin is at least throwing again, which I guess could be a good thing depending on your perspective on life. Zwolinski doesn't think he's a serious contender for the 5th starter spot, which is likely going to Casey Janssen. Gus apparently can be sent down to AAA Syracuse, which probably isn't a bad place for him until he has a vision quest and decides to get his shit together.

-- Johnny Was

Forward Thinking

With the majority of the Jays contracts ending after the 2010 season, I think it's important to look at the future of the organization. Two years from now, this team may look radically different than it does now. There will be a lot of turnover since 6 of the long term contracts are all set to end after the 2010 season. So with that in mind, I thought I'd look at the future of the Jays organization, starting with the positional players.

C- Assuming Zaun vests his option for 09, it's extremely unlikely that Zaun will be on this team past then. Three of the top internal solutions for catcher would be Thigpen, Diaz, and JP Arencibia. Thigpen isn't seen as the catcher of the future, and to be honest, I have no idea what position the Jays have in mind for him. Diaz is viewed as the catcher of the future, but Thigpen seems a man without a position. So he's one guy we can rule out. Diaz, while playing solid defense (or so I've heard...), is a terrible offensive player. Now, catcher is one position you can live without offense. But Diaz can't walk, so he's an OBP liability. Now, granted, he hits for great average, but I don't know if that's sustainable at the major league level. I'd view him more as a back-up. As for JP Arencibia, he won't be ready by 2011, if his first pro season is any indication. I still think in the future he'll be a solid catcher, but not by 2011. He might be in AAA if everything goes well, but that might even be optimistic.

So despite the trio of prospects, it's highly likely the future catcher for the Jays will come through FA or through trade. However, it's possible that Diaz or Thigpen could (and should) take the back-up job.


1B - Overbay is one of the many contracts that I listed that end after 2010. He's extremely underrated offensively, and a solid defensive 1B. With no other internal options (I believe Lind should either be in LF or DH, which will be determined by Rios signing long term and Snider's progression), it's likely Overbay will resign with the Jays to play 1B. He'll be in his early to mid 30s, so a possible decline is in order. But more likely than not Overbay will be playing 1B past 2010.

2B - Aaron Hill has proven himself over the past few years as a terrific defensive 2B. After his breakout offensive performance in 2007, he's solidified his future with the club. I'm expecting JP and crew to sign Hill through his arbitration years and beyond, so barring some unforseen event, Hill will be the starting second basemen in 2011.

SS - The problem child of the JP era. Eckstein is the new bandaid solution, but I don't expect him to be here long term. Internal solutions for the future include prospect Justin Jackson, but he won't be ready for 2011 as he was recently drafted. There are a couple of good FA short stops in the offseason such as Rafael Furcal & Orlando Cabrera. If they can be resigned for a reasonable price, they could be a solid fit for the Jays. I might prefer Furcal for his switch hitting abilities and solid on base ability. But odds are the future SS will be a FA/trade.

3B - Scott Rolen was recently acquired for Troy Gimp...sorry Troy Glaus. Rolen isn't a FA until 2010, so unless the Jays find a need to immediately replace him during that time (ie his shoulder falls off), they won't need to worry until after the 2010 season. While it's possible they could resign Scott Rolen, I'd be open to signing potential FA 3B Mark Teahen. As a huge Teahen fan thanks to fantasy baseball (I swear over a one month period it seemed like he hit 4 HR 3 2B and stole 3 bases every week...), I'd love to see Teahen manning the hot corner for the Jays. Top prospect Ahrens most likely won't be ready to that point, so Teahen would be a great addition to the Jays lineup. I believe he can improve on his 2007 batting line...at least I hope he can...

LF - This spot will be determined by Rios being signed long-term. If Rios is signed long term, Snider will be the LF of the future. If Rios is not signed, Lind will play LF, with Snider most likely in RF.

CF - Love him or hate him, we're stuck with Wells for a long time...

Rf - What I'm about to tell you will shock you. If you are pregnant, or have a heart condition I recommend you stop reading now.

Alright, I'll assume only the strongest willed men & women are reading this part. This may shock you...but the RF situation will be determined by....whether or not Rios signs long term. If he does....well...yeah he's gonna be playing Rf. And if he doesn't, it's Snider's spot to lose.

DH - Thomas' option will most likely vest for 2009. So looking at power hitters heading into 2010, if we had to take the free agent route Hank Blalock would be an interesting option. But most likely it'll end up being Adam Lind.

So there you have it. The future of the Jays looks to be vastly different from the current squad. Hopefully that group has a bit more speed in it than the current bunch. Next time, I'll focus on the future of the pitching staff of the Jays.

Twitchy.

The AJ Burnett Opt-Out Doomsday Clock

You're gonna be hearing about this damn thing all year long, so get used to it. Blair kindly brought it up in Saturday's Globe, our friends at the Mockingbird followed suit with a nice think piece, and now we weigh in.

Whatever Burnett does following this season, we will survive. Probably. So y'all simmer down now, y'hear?

Some possible scenarios (totally made up by me and with no basis in fact):

A) The club is competitive to the wire, Burnett is healthy and dominates all year long, then bolts town for a more money and years.

In this case we lose AJ and gain a high draft pick in return. $24 million comes off the books over 2009 and 2010. Someone else commits 4 years at $60 million-ish for his ages 32, 33, 34, and 35 seasons. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we definitely should not be extending Burnett beyond his current deal. Looking at Burnett's most similar pitchers through age 30 over at baseball-reference, we've got this group of dudes:

1. Chuck Dobson: washed up at 31
   
2. Stan Williams: done as a starter at 32, one effective year in the 'pen after, then done by 35
   
3. Juan Guzman: cool! ERA+ of 125 in his age 32 season, then done at 33
   
4. Jose Guzman: no relation, washed up at 31
   
5. Marty Pattin: became spot starter/reliever in age 31 season, effective to age 37
   
6. Carl Morton: done at 32
   
7. Kirk McCaskill: CanCon! Moved to 'pen age 32 season, 4 sucky years after
   
8. Steve Busby: done at 30
   
9. Jim Lonborg: injury woes at 33, some decent/average years through 35, shitballer at 36
   
10. Kerry Wood: Cubs closer in '08?
    

It's not scientific or anything, but I think there's good reason to think that after looking at this list we might be better off if AJ left after this year, freeing up a fair chunk of cash before he starts a downward spiral. Gambling on him being effective for more than the next three years is not something a wise man would do.

B) Jays are out of it by the deadline, Burnett is healthy, effective and trade bait.

In this case there undoubtedly WILL be a market for AJ. The return might not be as tasty as one would hope. Some recent notable deadline deals for starting pitching:

2007

* Matt Morris from the Giants to the Pirates from Rajai Davis and PTBNL Stephen MacFarland. (barf! this deal brought down wacky GM Dave Littlefield's reign of crappiness)

2006

* Greg Maddux from the Cubs to the Dodgers for Cesar Izturis (bleech)
* Oliver Perez (and Roberto Hernandez) from the Pirates to the Mets for Xavier Nady (meh)

2005

* Chan Ho Park from the Rangers to the Padres for Phil Nevin (meh)

2004

* Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato (haha, note to self: future alias) from the Mets to the D-Rays for Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz. (Collosally stupid move in which a league average pitcher was moved for a future ace; led the firing of Mets GM Jim Duqette)

* Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger from the Pirates to the Mets for Jose Bautista, Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson. (meh, Bautista is the only party here who's still on the same club, so I guess the Pirates won this deal).

* Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi and Bill Murphy from Marlins to Dodgers for Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion. (Finally a deal where a comparable talent to AJ was dealt. Penny was 26, about a year and a half from free agency, and had had 3 consecutive years of time lost to injury. This isn't much of a return. Lo Duca was flipped to the Mets for a pair of minor leaguers and had a couple of ok-ish seasons with the bat for a catcher. Mota was/is a turd sandwich reliever. Encarnacion had a 113 OPS+ for the Marlins in '05 before being flipped to the Cardinals. Pretty much a 4th OF talent now.)

2003

* Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez from the Pirates to Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez and Freddy Sanchez. (This is an interesting one. Suppan was a former Bosox free agent-to-be having a solid year. Lyon is set to be the D-Backs closer this year, but is probably a Jason Frasor-y talent as a reliever. That netted Sanchez, a late blooming versatile infielder who won the NL batting title in '06, and Gonzalez, a very solid lefty closer. Very nice!)

* Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine and Jeff Bruksch from the A's to the Reds for Jose Guillen. (Ouch! Billy Beane really dropped the ball on this one: 45 games of middling production from Guillen for a future 200 IP, 120 ERA+ front end starter. Ouch!)

And the list goes on...

There really isn't an AJ-calibre talent on this list that would give us a good idea of what to expect as a return for a deadline deal this summer. I would conclude that this sort of thing probably has little better than 50-50 odds of breaking our way, with deep scouting and patience being the key to making it work. But JP did swing Jeremy Accardo for Shea Hillenbrand, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

A note of caution: Gord Ash orchestrated one of the worst deadline deals of all time involving a starting pitcher when he sent David Cone to the Yankees for pitchers Marty Janzsen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon on July 28, 1995. Stone me! That was a stinker for the ages.

C) Burnett takes his annual mid-summer vacation and ends up giving us 20-25 mostly excellent starts as he had the last two years.

Seeing as how AJ's only had two completely healthy seasons in 7 years as a full-time big leaguer, the betting man would probably choose this option. This being the case, AJ might or might not choose to exercise the opt-out. Track record and all, there's a pretty decent chance he could find something better than 2 years at $24 million on the open market. But youneverknow, he might choose to stay. More of the same from AJ in 2008, 2009, 2010 really is fine by me: 20-25 very good starts is nothing to scoff at. We've got some kids (Litsch, Purcey and maybe someday Romero) who can be auditioned when AJ's hurt.

D) Burnett's arm is frigged beyond recognition and he misses most or all of the season.

In this case, we're stuck with him and the peanut gallery starts (well, ok, continues, but more vocally) calling for JP's head. This eventuality must've been discussed when AJ was signed, but at the time it was felt that the Jays needed to roll the dice anyway. Meh, damned if you do, damned if you don't. I wouldn't hold it against JP if it plays out like this.

So there you have it folks, let the Doomsday Clock speculation begin.

-- Johnny Was

Sunday Miscellany

* Despite being presented with statistical evidence strong enough to justify a preemptive invasion of Iran, some New York Post hack and a bunch of chucklehead Yankee fans refuse to believe that Derek "Jeets" Jeter is actually one of the shittiest defensive shortstops in baseball. Or that A-Rod was one of the best in the game before being shifted to third. But Jeets wins gold gloves, right? He's gotta be good! A random selection of Yoda-isms from the Bronx:

"I don't know what they're smoking down at Penn," said Yankees fan Mike.

Birch, 32. "That's preposterous. I completely disagree. Jeter's a clutch player."

"It's ridiculous," said fan Jay Ricker, 22. "Jeter is all-around awesome. He's better than A-Rod any day. Character has a lot to do with it. He's out there for his teammates, not just himself. He does it for the good of the team. That's the kind of guy you want on the field..."

This one is a bit rich, seeing as how Jeter is a bit over half way through a 10-year $189 million contract:

Ricker added that "A-Rod's only out for the money. For him it's not about baseball, it's just about banking."

God love you, Yankees fans, because no one is going to ever accuse you of being smart.

* Speaking of smart, you have to give it to baseball beat writers in Boston. I have family ties in Beantown and have been down there a few times, taking in a couple of games at mouldy old Fenway. The best and easiest comparision for our readers as to how Bostonians view their ballclub is that this is a franchise that might be loved unconditionally even more than an unnamed Toronto NHL franchise. The Bosox dominate the city, conversation, shop space, etc.; there's even a massively popular local lottery in which the winner gets not cash, mind, but a lifetime pair of tickets for every Yankees-Red Sox tilt at Fenway. That's devotion.

Back to the journos. Since the market is so competitive, Bosox writers constanly strive to be witty, (painfully?) verbose, intelligent, and insightful. I don't read the Boston papers regularly, but when I do I usually find their work to be of the highest quality. Here's an enjoyably balanced take on the Jays chances for 2008 from Sunday's Globe. Notice how in contrast to most other previews one encounters on the internet, players names are spelled correctly, strengths and weaknesses are duly and objectively noted, spring training story lines are clearly mapped out, and at no point does the dreaded plague of "homerism" creep in.

* Results of the Southpaw's first poll are in! You, a kangaroo court of our friends, have decided that Richard Griffin is d) a visionary of talents surpassed only by L. Ron Hubbard. You give people democracy and they vote in a Hamas governement, I should have seen this coming. Give me the steady, guiding hand of Comrade Stalin any day of the week.

Thanks for participating!

-- Johnny Was