Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Another Look

Just a quick expansion of a thought here concerning the Jays' starting pitching depth over the next half-decade or so.

What follows is a list of starting pitchers in our system, organized by years of control and ranked approximately taking into consideration factors like age, major league experience, injuries, and talent level. I've tried to present this as sort of a chart in order to give a visual representation of the situation.

This is name > age as of 4/1/10, and years of team control left (projected for players not yet in the majors)

Marcum (28) -- '10 - '11 - '12
McGowan (28) - '10 - '11 - '12
Morrow (25) --- '10 - '11 - '12 - '13
Litsch (25) ------ '10 - '11 - '12 - '13
Romero (25) ---- '10 - '11 - '12 - '13 - '14
Richmond (30) - '10 - '11 - '12 - '13 - '14
Rezepcyz' (24) - '10 - '11 - '12 - '13 - '14 - '15
Cecil (23) ------- '10 - '11 - '12 - '13 - '14 - '15
Drabek (22) --------- '11 - '12 - '13 - '14 - '15 - 16
Stewart (23) --------- '11 - '12 - '13 - '14 - '15 - 16
Jenkins (22) -------------- '12 - '13 - '14 - '15 - '16 - '17
Alverez (19) --------------------- '13 - '14 - '15 - '16 - '17 - '18

Unlisted because of the exceeding difficulty of projecting within the context of this rotation are David Purcey, Brad Mills, and Robert Ray who (along with Richmond) would seem to be trade chips or bullpen pitchers given the depth here.

Obviously this is a description of what happens if everyone pans out and it's never the case that everyone pans out - Just ask Dustin McGowan. Still, you have as many as eight reasonable candidates for 2010 and 10 for 2011-2012. If you dismiss McGowan as a lost cause and Richmond as not as good as the pack here, you still have eight very-good to great candidates for the 2012 rotation.

It's also worth noting that with the exception of Richmond, none of those listed pitchers go past their age 30 season on that chart.
As the Jays move forward, the starting rotation is NOT set to be a concern.

4 comments:

Ian H. said...

Although I'm still mourning the loss of Halladay, I'm really enjoying how this rotation is shaping up AD (After Doc). The core is young and controllable for at least three seasons - not many teams can say that about their starting five.

andy mc said...

I love it. Keep posting, Will. I'm glad you're back on this site. Seemed like your site got lost in the move somehow. I have always liked your solid analysis, and I think your off-season stuff is your best. Keep it up!

Brian Tallet's Mustache said...

Nice - something like this had been floating around my head, but it's nice to have it laid out like this.

It does look pretty promising.

Mylegacy said...

The fifteen you mention above - Mills should be in the top list for sure - plus at least one of our 2010 nine draft picks - and you've a very impressive, very deep pitching staff.

By Sept 2011 I expect to see five of: Jenkins, Drabek, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Stewart and Mills for at least five or so years thereafter. Very interesting.