Saturday, December 4, 2010

As the winter games begin...

...it seems to me that one bit of information that it's handy to have, going forward, is an idea of what the payroll currently looks like. Sure, Beeston and Anthopoulos are on record that no move that makes sese will be prevented by money, but since we don't know, looking in from the outside, how to define "makes sense" from Rogers' point of view, we can still kind of ballpark an idea of what might happen if we know where we are at now.

All the contract figures are per Cott's (and if you are using any other source for payroll info - what the hell is wrong with you?) the pre-arb players are all rounded to half a million dollars since the amount they would vary from that is so small as to be irrelevant (precise figures can't be guessed at because the previous minimum of $400k will be subject to a COLA adjustment - I know, right? - and we don't know yet what that will be), and easily swallowed up by the variation in the amount of my estimates for arb-eligible contracts and what the actual contracts turn out to be.

The arbitration players are my estimates, but i have been fairly accurate in predicting the total amount we spend on such players the last few years so I speak there with some confidence.

The signed contracts are bolded. Arb eligible in italics. There are more than 25 players here because there are players who will likely have a big league contract who won't be on the active roster (McGowan, for instance). All figures in million of dollars.

Starting Pitchers:

Romero - $0.75
Marcum - $2.0
Morrow - $1.1
Cecil - $0.5
Litsch - $0.9
Rzpczyinski - $0.5
McGowan* - $0.45

Relief Pitchers

Frasor - $3.75
Camp - $2.0
Janssen - $1.2
Villanueva - $1.25
Purcey - $0.5
Carlson - $0.5
Roenicke - $0.5
(or Richmond)

Hitters
(current starting nine, which is actually eight)

Arencibia - $0.5
Lind - $5
Hill - $5
Escobar - $1.3
Bautista - $8
Wells - $23
Snider - $0.5
Davis - $1.8

Bench

Molina - $1
McDonald - $1.5

3 other hitters needed to finish the roster, and at least one of those pitchers won't be on the roster, although you might need all of ST to see how that plays out)

Also off roster:

Hechevarria - $2 mil

Total committed already: $38.7 mil
Total pre-arb players: $3.5 mil
Total arb estimates: $23.3 mil
Three more spots, minimum: $1.5 mil

Grand total: $67 mil

This wold obviously fluctuate if the Jays signed, for instance, Morrow or Marcum to a long term deal this winter, to say nothing of inevitable acquisitions. please don't nit-pick about - for instance - whether or not Carlson makes the team. Some low-pay guy will be there if not him unless we acquire someone from outside the organization and obviously no one can predict what, shall we way, Ryan Roland-Smith wold make because we don't know who that player will be yet.

This is more an idea of who would be at the head of the line if they broke camp today.

Certainly there's a potential for some fluctuation, but i'd stand by this prediction within about 5% variation in either direction.

1 comment:

Xave said...

Any predictions for free agent splashes? If the Jays are in on one big name FA I'd guess Beltre. If the Gonzalez deal goes through, Boston's out and MLBTR reported that Oakland is also out of the Beltre bidding. He doesn't strike out too much, maybe he'll age well.