Tuesday, December 20, 2011

I'm Over Yu


So, there's that then.

It will be interesting when word comes out how much the jays bid on Darvish. The report indicates that the Ranger's winning bid was $51.7 million. The amount of the jays bid will tell us much about the whole thesis that they were willing to make an exception to”they plan” for a special player. One thing is for sure, you should make NO mistake about this: neither Prince Fielder or Carlos Beltran will be wearing a Blue Jays uniform in 2012.

Just to go on the record – any narrative riffing on “Rogers is too cheap to play with the big boys” is under-informed until we find out what the Blue Jays bid actually was (assuming it leaks out). If they bid $49m it means something completely different than if they bid $19m.

There does, however, remain a distinct possibility that there is a big trade or two yet to be made. While it's true that the team has mentioned the need to acquire a big middle of the order bat, very very few of the hitters who'd be thus described are available (by my estimation, among qualifying hitters who were .825+ in OPS in 2011, only Paul Kenerko might be available) but Alex is hardly predictable. On the other hand, there are a number of candidates which might be targeted under the category of “mid-to-upper rotation starter” although personally, there are very few of these guys I'd pay the price for if it were me – I list them only to be complete.

1.Felix Hernandez – not reportedly available, but between the Angels and Rangers recent upgrades, the M's are insane if they believe they can be competitive within the years of control they have on king Felix. Unless they have made up their minds to pay nay price to extend him, then the smart play is to reap the biggest haul ever to move him. Of course, if that buyer is Toronto then they have to believe that they will be in the hunt within the next three years as well, because the price will be exceedingly high. Start with d'Arnaud and one of the CF prospects (Gose or Marisnick) and throw in ant least two of the young stud pitcher plus a couple of more marginal guys. Think something like d'Arnaud/Gose/Hutchson/Nicolino/Jenkins.
2.James Shields – simply won't be dealt in-division.
3.Gio Gonzalez – control issues are worrisome, price said to be exorbitant. Four years of control left. Probably the most likely target on this list.
4.Matt Garza – Two years of control means more manageable price, but less likelihood he fits the long term plan. If you could get Sean Marshall in the deal with him, this gets more interesting.
5.Wandy Rodriguez – not a fan of the idea, much older than the others and not a cheap contract.
6.John Danks – only one year of control is big negative.

The thing is, the more I look at that list, the more I like the guys we've got. The only deal I'd enthusiastically make her is for Felix. As for the rest, I'd be very happy to send out a rotation of -

Romero
McGowan
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
(with Drabek, McGuire, and Hutchison on the farm, and Villianueva, Litsch, Carreno and Perez for emergencies) and wait and see if they need to upgrade in July.

Stick to the plan, IMO. Richard Griffin tweeted the Jays NEED to send this money on a pitcher like those listed above, and Beltran. I couldn't disagree more. Darvish was the exception that proves the rule – NOT an indication there's $50m lying around that you can spend like it's shore leave. Besides, if you are wrong about the internal options, just look at this list of pitchers, all free agents a year from now.

Cole Hamels
Zach Grienke
Matt Cain
Francisco Liriano

Am I disappointed? Oh hell yeah. I'll be more so if word comes out the Jays' bid wasn't serious. But I'm not crying. The Plan continues, the future is bright. It's just not going to come to fruition in 2012.
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On another note, Baseball America released their Blue Jays Top 10 prospects list today, it looks like this:
(number in parenthesis reflects my ranking)

1. Travis d'Arnaud (1)
2. Anthony Gose (3)
3. Jake Marisnick (2)
4. Daniel Norris (8)
5. Justin Nicolino (7)
6. Aaron Sanchez (9)
7. Noah Syndergaard (6)
8. Deck McGuire (11)
9. Drew Hutchison (4)
10. Asher Wojciechowski (20)

The obvious difference is Woj, who I really do like by the way, it's a depth thing. It's kind of remarkable to see seven consecutive pitching prospects in the Top 10. In the post-list chat, it was revealed that:

*Nestor Molina wouldn't have made the top 10 if he were still in the organization - that's a big difference from me, I had him tied for 4th.

*There are indeed good reports on the improvement in Hech's bat, but more data is needed.

*Sanchez's control improved after the promotion to Vancouver (I was impressed they still ranked him slightly ahead of Syndergaard)

When someone lets me know what the Top 30 looked like, I'll pass that along as well.

Looking at the system reminds us of the most important thing to remember tonight - look FORWARD, not back.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Bah, Prince Fielder ain't coming here. He wants way more term then I'd be comfortable handing out to him.

What I wouldn't mind them doing is doling out a bunch of dollars to Oswalt if he's ready to just take a one year deal like reports say. I don't know how much more it'd take to lure him here instead of elsewhere (because let's face it The Jay's usually play in hitters ballparks and the ALE is a tough division for Oswalt to boost his worth on a make-good deal) but he'd buy us an improved rotation while the "If's" in the bottom half of the rotation sort themselves out, give another year of maturation in the minors for the guys that aren't quite ready yet, and if he pitches as good as he has in the past I could see him netting the Jays one of those comp picks under the new CBA and we all know that AA loves comp picks.