Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Top Prospect Update

Okay, Before I get to the main body of this post, this is just a shout out post which will be deleted once it (hopefully!) produces the desired results:

I have a post on my list of things do to which involves remarking upon the various prospect ranking of high-profile sites. The one i'm yet waiting on is Keith Law. BUT in the mean time, i have a problem.

I need SOMEONE who bought toe Baseball America Handbook to give me the rest of their Top 30 ranking for the Jays. I'd love to be able to afford the book but I CAN'T (frankly, any month in which the electric bill gets paid is a win), I'd love to read their whole scouting report on the system and everyone in it but i don't have that option. but I can't do the post I want to do properly without knowing the rest of their top 30.

Now, with that out of the way, on to business. It is my custom each year (albeit i apparently failed to post one last year) to do a final pre-season revision of my Top Prospect list. This is to reflect any off-season changes to the system, as well as any new information that has come across the wire. It may seem odd to have a fall list and a spring list, but my list is always evolving even when I don't tell you about it!

So, this is the most recent iteration (not in reverse order since the previous list is out there).

1. Travis d'Arnaud /C - seems near unanimous consensus here.
2. Jake Marisnick /CF - I'm not alone in preferring him to Gose (slightly)
3. Anthony Gose /CF - meaning no disrespect.
4. Drew Hutchison /RHP - some of these others have a higher ceiling, but he gets points ofr execution at a high level
5. Daniel Norris /LHP - an awful lot of good things being said about this guy
6. Noah Syndergaard /RHP - apparently still has room to get better
7. Justin Nicolino /LHP - as good as the numbers would imply
8. Aaron Sanchez /RHP - numbers were not as impressive but stuff is there
9. Adeiny Hechavarria /SS - Dropped a bit more because the pitchers are SO good not because I believe in him less.
10. Deck McGuire /RHP - lower ceiling than the kids, really good chance to reach it.
11. Carloe Perez /C - took a lot bigger hit from poor year than was warranted I think
12. Michael Crouse /RF - could be a CF if not on the same level with Jake.
13. Antonio Jimenez /C - I might be the only one who still has him behind Perez.
14. Marcus Knecht /LF - could be a RF but Crouse and Marisnick are better
15. Adonys Cardona /RHP - stats skewed by relief work, as starter he was excellent. May be top 10 next year.
16. Matt Dean /3B - Kevin Goldstien confirmed my hunch about this guy. So does BA.
17. Kevin Comer /RHP - Possibly under-rated in the shadow of Norris, this ranking a testament to the depth.
18. Roberto Osuna /RHP - most don't yet fully appreciate how good he potentially is.
19. Asher Wojciechowski /RHP - Started and finished well around a mid-season stumble.
20. Chad Jenkins /RHP - in another system, might get more noise. but ceiling is limited.
21. Chris Hawkins /LF - defensively a LF, offensively just getting started.
22. Jacob Anderson /RF - another player who could take a big leap in the next year.
23. Dwight Smith, Jr. /OF - Might be better than I think. Being generous to compensate.
24. Moises Sierra /RF - I question his offensive ceiling, but sometimes the toolsy guy blows up.
25. Dicke Thon /SS - giving him a mulligan on the poor health year.
26. John Stilson /RHP - will be a major steal if he can stay healthy.
27. Christian Lopes /SS - may end up a 2B but I have a hunch about this guy.
28. Sean Nolin /LHP - took a big leap last year, now on the radar.
29. Joe Musgrove /RHP - I was initially cool to this guy but he's gotten some love in the off-season.
30. Joel Carreno /RHP - not to downplay him, but he'll be a reliever if he's a Jay, and there's only so much value in relief.
31. Mike McDade /1B -completely assuming the 2nd half was all about the bad knee
32. Wilmer Becarra /CF - based on how well he was regarded before the signing
33. Dawel Lugo /SS - similar to the reasoning above.
34. David Cooper /1B - gets NO love from observers, I can't buck ALL that opinion.
35. Kellen Sweeney /3B - reportedly the jays still love the guy, needs a healthy year.
36. Griffin Murphy /LHP - important for him to step up and maintain his place in a crowded field
37. Mark Biggs /RHP - considered a big "get" at that spot in the draft.
38. Mitchell Taylor /LHP - overshadowed by others, but had a very nice year.
39. Evan Crawford /LHP - Alex loves him, but as with Carreno, being a reliever suppresses value.
40. Jario Labourt /LHP - relatively under-the-radar signing, could pay off nicely.
41. Jeremy Gabryszwski /RHP - the draft choice I know the least about. But a 2nd rounder deserves respect.
42. Jesus Gonzalez /RF - another high profile Latin signing.
43. Tom Robson /RHP - has some developing to do, but there's upside there.
44. Yan Gomes /C - may never realize abilities in our system due to crowding. But he's got talent.
45. Manuel Cordova /RHP - one more in the July Latin haul.
46. Alan Farina /RHP - will spend the year recovering from TJS.
47. Tyler Ybarra /RHP - very dark horse, but don't forget him.
48. Santiago Nessey /C - value somewhat tied to whether he can stay at the position.
49. Anthony DeSclafani /RHP - some reports suggest he's more raw than other 2011 draftees.
50. Gabriel Cenas /3B - still very young, will take some time.

Now. Some of yall hook me up, m'kay?


gabriel said...

The BA full list is in the comments over at Drunk Jays Fan.

I like your list, particularly keeping the faith with Hechavarria and the aggressive ranking of Michael Crouse. Probably the list I have the least quibbles with.

The Southpaw said...

Score! Thanks!

jgadfly said...

Commenter Joshua provided BA list down to #31 over at DJF ...

jgadfly said...

Tammy ... great work ... solid list & reasoning ...
I really like the aggressiveness of this list . Guys that I think are perhaps a little high are Knecht, Comer, Wojciechowski and Jenkins, who I would move down about 10 spaces, plus I'd move the injury guys up by 10 if they're truly healthy. Stilson, if healthy, could even be in the McGuire neighbourhood, Mcdade and Sierra into the mid teens behind Crouse & Jimenez; Sweeney and Thon high teens after Dean. I don't know enough about the second tier IFA's to really rate them but I too am bullish on Cardona and Osuna . Plus I'd bunt Robson (Sickles' sleeper) and DeSclafani up a bit and make space for Barnes as well . I am hopeful that the pitchers who are experiencing control problems (Sanchez, Woj, Murphy & Gabry) due to the plus movement on their pitches will eventually gain control and justify their positions. I'm hopeful also that Crouse, McDade and Sweeney are the guys who really make a jump this season and that Stilson and Dyson remain healthy.
Again congratulations, solid professional work.

Anonymous said...

I sent you the list about a week ago after your plea at Battersbox. So I think the email you have registered at that sight must not be still active. You might want to update so people can contact you in the future.

Gil Fisher said...

I really like that you have Norris, Syndergaard, Nicolino and Sanchez consecutively in that list. I think you can throw a blanket over the four of them. All teenagers with a varing mix of present stuff, projection and results.

Bill said...

Don't forget Matt Wright. He's been successful at every level and has a great k\walk ratio. I believe he'll have a good year in AA and one day quietly work his way on a Major League roster