After all the deals this winter, there's admittedly less to get wound up about among the prospects, but I have confidence that there will be a number of interesting stories this summer. Now that the full season rosters are officially set, let's take a brief tour shall we?
Here's thirty plus guys on the full season roster for you to watch.
Buffalo
The active Buffalo squad has an average age of 29.68 (the Blue Jays average 30.35) and this is mostly a veteran squad. I could list off the names but few there be that would interest you from the standpoint of potential major league contributions. So I'm just going to stick with those.
Anthony Gose - Has his instructions concerning those parts of his game he needs to polish. many think he's going to break out this year. Manager Marty Brown, who had Grady Sizemore in AAA said "Grady was a manager's dream, Gose is better than Grady."
Moises Sierra - I remain convinced that Sierra is ultimately a flawed, marginal guy as a major leaguer. But he's also clearly the second best prospect among the hitters here and he may well change my mind someday.
Ryan Goins - His ceiling might be as a Mark DeRosa type bench guy, not that there's anything wrong with that. What he's trying to avoid is becoming a slower version of Mike McCoy.
Josh Thole - not really a prospect, of course, with his major league experience, but he does represent a player on this team that may be called upon to make a difference in Toronto. I think that his pre-injury self was pretty impressive and hope he gets that form back.
Brad Lincoln - again, not a "prospect" but a guy that by all rights is too good to be in AAA.
Sleepers: Out of ST, there was good buzz at one time or another around Mickey Storey, Justin Germano,Niel Wagner, and old-timer David Bush. Also, Todd Redmond also has major league experience, as does Michael Schwimmer (who's on the major league DL but figures to land here when he comes off).
New Hampshire
AJ Jimenez - on the DL with a "tender shoulder" (IIRC), if the trip is not too long he should climb right back onto the prospect radar as the season wears on.
Sean Ochinko - slightly different skill set, but has a chance to be a Yan Gomes level guy or a tick better.
Kevin Pillar - Will need to build on his great 2012 and prove he deserves to be well regarded. Still quite reminiscent of Reed Johnson in many ways (which is a compliment).
Kenny Wilson - has underwhelmed to this point, but he must have shown them something in ST to break camp this high. Definitely his year to shine if he's going to.
Deck McGuire - You know his story. Can he right the ship?
Chad Jenkins - Opens on the DL, the depth chart in front of him as a reliever got much deeper this winter so he surely motivated to try to prove he deserves to start. Both these guys will be eyeing a chance to move up to Buffalo with a strong first half.
Sean Nolin - also starts out on the DL. I'm not sure of the seriousness of the situation, I believe it to be minor. This is the guy Alex has HIS eyes on in New Hampshire.
Jon Stilson - same song third verse. Wants to jump off the DL and get lined up for a promotion. Any or all of these guys may well make a difference in AAA this year.
Danny Barnes - sensing a pattern? also on the DL. One to watch if he proves healthy.
Sleepers: Matt Wright, Evan Crawford, Trystan Magnuson,. Joel Carreno, Marcus Walden (whom I expect to go back to Dunedin once the DL starts clearing up).
Dunedin
Things look to pick up on the lower levels but this is a thin roster. Besides Ricky Romero trying to get right and presumably the beginning of Dustin McGowans's next trip towards the majors, there are a few names to note...
Aaron Sanchez - Jays #1 prospect looks to polish his already impressive game.
Michael Crouse - had a wasted year in 2012, needs to get back in the 2011 groove.
Marcus Knecht - ditto.
Andy Burns - Put himself on the map last year before being injured. Converted shortstop has the chance to open eyes further as this line-up will need him.
(Roster note - the roster lists Egan Smith as restricted, and Alan Farina as active. but Farina got a drug suspension (substance of abuse) and he might be the one who's actually suspended)
Lansing
Now we're talking.
Roberto Osuna - all eyes are on the very young and very talented Mexican.
Daniel Norris - reportedly his ugly numbers last season hid some moments of excellence. He'll need to have more of the latter and less of the former this time (and his first appearance wasn't encouraging).
Santiago Nessy - the young catcher got a ton of praise this winter, both for his plate skills and his intangibles. The Jays think they really have something here.
Christian Lopes - one of my personal favorites, I expected him to be closing in on the 2B job in Toronto by the time Izturus' contract expires.
Dalton Pompey - highly regarded hometown prospect, needs to stay healthy and have an impressive season to really open up eyes outside the organization.
Chris Hawkins - star faded a lot last year. Seriously needs a break out.
Kellen Sweeney/Gus Perrie - two guys at 3B, both having progressed after a lot of early struggles diminished their prospect status. I'm a bit surprised to seethe Jays create an awkward situation with both on the same roster.
Taylor Cole/Jaaviar Avendano - the twin pillars of last year's championship Vancouver rotation, Cole is somewhat old to be a prospect at this level, though that's mitigated some by his time away from the game on a Mormon mission. And Avendano will have to overcome the reality that minor league Rule 5 picks are almost never considered legit prospects. I wouldn't be stunned to see Cole challenged with a promotion if he starts off well.
Griffin Murphy - be interesting to see if he ever gets back into the rotation. It seems awfully early to consign such a well regarded draftee to the 'pen.
The obvious missing guy - Marcus Stroman. He's listed on the NH roster but his comments suggest when he's activated (third week of May) he'll begin his year in Dunedin. The expectations are that he'll move fast though. If he does well look for him to split 10-12 starts between the two teams and go to Buffalo for the second half. As one possibility, if he pitches in Dunedin through the FSL all star break, then gets promoted to AA and pitches there until the EL all-star break, then to Buffalo, his record would have 5 A-ball starts, 6 AA starts, and 9-10 in AAA. Then either Toronto for September or, more likely, off to Arizona. Which is not to say the team won't give in to the temptation to call him faster under the right circumstances.
It's far too early to form up the short-season rosters but Vancouver could be fascinating. consider the guys who might be on that team:
Giant hard-throwing lefty Matt Smoral, the Latin trio of Alberto Tirado, Yefry Del Rosario and Jario Labourt.Tom Robson or Mark Biggs or maybe even Tyler Gonzales would finish out an all-prospect rotation.
DJ Thon might well be here trying to finally show his promise at SS, Matt Dean will likely have a chance to earn the 3B job here. The outfield, too, might be "all prospect" with lightning fast DJ Davis flanked by Jacob Anderson and Dwight Smith Jr. That would potentially be the most interesting team in the system.
Friday, 5 April 2013
Tuesday, 2 April 2013
Awesomesauce!
Opening Day at last! (After everyone else has there's)
All the previewing and prognosticating and hand-wringing and gushing has been done for now, it's time to see what we actually have. There's not really any new news to write about today - well, the minor league rosters were set but I'm not going to sully opening day by extensively discussing the minors, but you can't let opening day go by without comment.
So here's my rundown of expectations:
Dickey will be excellent early on as the league get's their first look at him, and mildly less so (but still quite good) as the season wears on.
Morrow will, if healthy, be a very strong Cy Young candidate, both because he's that damn good and because he'll enjoy the bump that comes from following Dickey against the same team in many of his starts.
Buehrle will be quite similar to what he was last year, he's a rock.
Johnson might well match up with Morrow and give the Jays two legit Cy contenders into the late summer, again, there's some injury risk.
Happ is in an unenviable situation in that he'd have to be outstanding to be secure. I think he'll be a very nice little pitcher, better than most of the #5 guys in the league...but I don't think he will finish the year in the rotation.
Santos will be "Closer A" at some point just because he'll gain momentum during the early season as the Jays be cautions with Janssen. Janssen will be "Closer B" and my guess is you'll see something like 25-30 saves for Santos and 15-20 for Janssen.
Oliver and Delebar will be the main 8th inning guys and the latter will put himself on the radar in a big way as a known-name around the league.
Cecil will be a pleasant surprise and improve as the season goes on. He'll position himself to take over Oliver's role next year. Loup will be good overall but have occasional adjustment periods. Rogers will end up being the goat who's okay but not as good as the rest. Jefress will be headed to Buffalo within a week or so.
Jose Reyes will have maybe his best year ever, certainly one that would be in the conversation.
Cabrera will be above average, and quite consistent, but not on a level with his career year last year. More like 2011.
Bautista will, I think, press early on and not be completely "in the groove" but will heat up with the weather.
Encarnacion, in my view, will probably regress some but still be the most obvious candidate to hit 4th.
Lind...uh....who the hell knows?
Lawrie I have irrationally high hopes for. If he can stay on the field I look for him in Longoria country.
Rasmus. i don't think can stay irrationally bad. He may never hit as i am convinced his talents would warrant for his habit of getting in his own head, but I figure he'll still be above average for the position.
Arencibia should progress a bit, on the margins, but is more or less what he is. AJ Pierzinski is the ceiling.
Izturus/Bonfacio - I expect the latter to "run away with" the majority of the at bats (See what i did there?) eventually. Having he and Reyes both gunning for 50 steals in the same lineup should be a lot of fun to watch
I KNOW this sounds like unbridled optimism, but heck, is it not true that injuries are largely unpredictable, and that freak bad years can come out of the blue for almost any player? It's a mugs game to try to predict who's going to be the unlucky soul. We just have to hope that we don't have too many ugly surprises.
Bonus prophecy: Dustin McGowan might be the guy who takes Happ's job before Romero gets his chance.
All the previewing and prognosticating and hand-wringing and gushing has been done for now, it's time to see what we actually have. There's not really any new news to write about today - well, the minor league rosters were set but I'm not going to sully opening day by extensively discussing the minors, but you can't let opening day go by without comment.
So here's my rundown of expectations:
Dickey will be excellent early on as the league get's their first look at him, and mildly less so (but still quite good) as the season wears on.
Morrow will, if healthy, be a very strong Cy Young candidate, both because he's that damn good and because he'll enjoy the bump that comes from following Dickey against the same team in many of his starts.
Buehrle will be quite similar to what he was last year, he's a rock.
Johnson might well match up with Morrow and give the Jays two legit Cy contenders into the late summer, again, there's some injury risk.
Happ is in an unenviable situation in that he'd have to be outstanding to be secure. I think he'll be a very nice little pitcher, better than most of the #5 guys in the league...but I don't think he will finish the year in the rotation.
Santos will be "Closer A" at some point just because he'll gain momentum during the early season as the Jays be cautions with Janssen. Janssen will be "Closer B" and my guess is you'll see something like 25-30 saves for Santos and 15-20 for Janssen.
Oliver and Delebar will be the main 8th inning guys and the latter will put himself on the radar in a big way as a known-name around the league.
Cecil will be a pleasant surprise and improve as the season goes on. He'll position himself to take over Oliver's role next year. Loup will be good overall but have occasional adjustment periods. Rogers will end up being the goat who's okay but not as good as the rest. Jefress will be headed to Buffalo within a week or so.
Jose Reyes will have maybe his best year ever, certainly one that would be in the conversation.
Cabrera will be above average, and quite consistent, but not on a level with his career year last year. More like 2011.
Bautista will, I think, press early on and not be completely "in the groove" but will heat up with the weather.
Encarnacion, in my view, will probably regress some but still be the most obvious candidate to hit 4th.
Lind...uh....who the hell knows?
Lawrie I have irrationally high hopes for. If he can stay on the field I look for him in Longoria country.
Rasmus. i don't think can stay irrationally bad. He may never hit as i am convinced his talents would warrant for his habit of getting in his own head, but I figure he'll still be above average for the position.
Arencibia should progress a bit, on the margins, but is more or less what he is. AJ Pierzinski is the ceiling.
Izturus/Bonfacio - I expect the latter to "run away with" the majority of the at bats (See what i did there?) eventually. Having he and Reyes both gunning for 50 steals in the same lineup should be a lot of fun to watch
I KNOW this sounds like unbridled optimism, but heck, is it not true that injuries are largely unpredictable, and that freak bad years can come out of the blue for almost any player? It's a mugs game to try to predict who's going to be the unlucky soul. We just have to hope that we don't have too many ugly surprises.
Bonus prophecy: Dustin McGowan might be the guy who takes Happ's job before Romero gets his chance.
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