Wednesday, June 5, 2013

The clock ticks...

As of the end of the month of May, the Jays can be fairly confident they have recovered their footing, in terms of the inexplicable awfulness which was April. But it is only the first layer of the foundation necessary to contend and much more needs to be built upon it. They can take comfort in the fact that they ran off a 13-9 stretch (.591, good enough for 95 wins over a full season) with only one start from Happ, none from Johnson, and really only one veteran starter being reasonably consistent in giving his team a good performance.

Logically that, and the hoped for return from injury of several important players should portend better days at some point but..."should"and reality seem to not be on speaking terms in Toronto. One things is for sure: they need to play about .650 ball the rest of the year and that's a VERY tall order.

Who's been carrying them the past (almost) four weeks?

  • Mark Buehrle has a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts
  • Melky Cabrera had a .979 OPS during that 13-9 stretch.
  • Over the same period, Jose Bautista posted a 1.140 OPS
  • May 5 (the start of the run) through the end of the month for Lind: 1.044
  • Same period for Edwin? .951    
That covers a LOT of failure - but it can't continue  so the failure needs to not continue as well. Turning to the monthly prospect report, let's peruse the farm system.

Hitters:

Gustavo Pierre - he seems like he's been around forever but he's still just 21 and maybe, just maybe, he's coming into his potential a bit. His OPS for may was a robust .930 for Lansing, a team without a ton of productive hitters to complement him.

Nick Bailgod - Not strictly a prospect, but had a heck of a month for Dunedin and deserves a nod.

Andy Burn and Kevin Pillar continue their steady production, but both were off from their April production, the former more than the latter. Truth is, among the players young enough to be considered any sort of prospect, very little has been happening in May that would be considered noteworthy

Pitchers:

Sean Nolin - overlook the distraction of the possibly unwise detour to Toronto, and the kid has nothing to be ashamed of. Take away one bad inning in his last start (technically June 2, but I'm slow, deal with it) in which he gave up five hits - three of them to the DH playing LF - and his AA ERA stands at 1.48 with a better than 3:1 K:BB ratio.

Daniel Norris - seems to have figured something out. Control still needs a lot of work but since April 26, he has a 3.21 ERA with 39 K's in 26.1 IP

Marcus Stroman - ended May with a horrific 1 inning outing (which, one assumes, would have ended quicker if he didn't have a pitch count specification to reach) and he's been fine otherwise. That one outing is a bit inexplicable, but one assumes an outlier of that magnitude has an explanation of which we're not aware.  Still on the semi-fast track.

Joel Carreno - finally got the long overdue promotion to Buffalo after posting an insane 14.5 K/9 rate over 27.1 IP (over against a 2.6 BB/9 rate) in New Hampshire. He gave up a mere 12 hits over that stretch. Let's see how he fares at AAA.

John Stilson - control was a little shakey when he was bumped to AAA shortly after coming off the DL, but I get the impression he could push his way into the majors by September unless the team decides to save an option and send him to the AFL. Always assuming he stays healthy of course.

 Ajay Meyer - not routinely discussed as a"prospect, he is routinely kicking opposition-asses the closer in Dunedin while Danny Barnes struggles to stay off the DL. Dude was a non-drafted free agent, and at 25 he's way too old for the level, but he also sports at 12:1 K:BB ratio so they need to challenge him with two promotions this season unless they already know he can't handle it.


HM: Not"prospects" but let's not forget Josh Thole, who has to be chafing as he watches Henry Blanco be a black hole in Toronto while he (Thole) posts a .900+ OPS in Buffalo, and forever-hoped-for Dustin McGowan, who's had two missteps since moving up to Buffalo (in 7 outings) and seems to be working on a set schedule. The Jays have until June 12 to recall him.

also, on the farm side, one must sadly note for the record that Rickey Romero still hasn't gotten his head straight. There may be nothing sadder than watching a guy simply "lose it" despite no physical or age related source. It's no way for a career to end and I hope, on that basis alone, that Romero defies history and finds the handle.

Upcoming on Thursday, the 2013 draft which I've really had a hard time getting a  handle on. The guy I really want, and the guy we cold have had if we'd had the foresight to give the money we gave to DJ Thon to him instead, is Kris Bryant but there's NO WAY he falls to 10. There are a handful of other guys, any of whom I'd be content with at that spot (Fraizer, Medows, etc) but the other guy who both intrigues me and terrifies me is Austin Wilson. I drool over his ceiling, but am terrified of his potential to be an absolute bust. It will take me some time to digest the results before I'm willing to weigh in.

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