Oh My!

By now you know what happened and have gotten fairly acquainted with the basic details. I waited a day to post on the subject in order to ear all the comments from AA and the players come out to get the whole context.  I've also, of course, heard a lot of commentary from folks who get paid to do that sort of thing and those who don't. Therefore, let me distill all that noise into  those facts which seem to me to be most salient.

First, let's notice what Oakland gets:

Brett Lawrie - Honestly, I had MASSIVE expectations for him. In my mind, he'd spend 15-20 years in a Jays uniform and would be our George Brett/Cal Ripkin type cornerstone. Probably no Blue Jays fan had a higher view of him than me. But due to injuries and some lingering issues with swing mechanics, he's not that guy yet. Of course, he may never be though, and that's the sole reason he was expendable. In essence, the A's got a guy who may end up better than Donaldson or may always be a great glove with a frustrating offensive game. The Jays paid the other guys to the A's in order to shift that bit of risk in exchange for more certainty.

And the thing is, he's only three years from free agency so there's every possibility he'll be dealt again in a couple of years. Maybe we could get him back to play 2B?

Franklin Barreto - He is, to use one of Wilner's favorite terms, a lottery ticket. But in this case the prize if you win is rich indeed. He currently plays SS to mixed reviews - LaCava says the jays were very impressed with his improvement over the course of the season - but whether he ends up there, or 2B, or CF, that bat plays. He's likely to be a consensus top 100 prospect this off-season and if he continues that sort of hitting he'll shoot up that list. No one is calling him a replacement for Addison Russel yet, but there's a decent chance the will in a year or two.

Sean Nolin - the most under the radar guy in the deal and...
Kendell Gravemen - considered together...

Here are the Blue Jays starting pitchers already ahead of these two:
Buehrle
Dickey
Happ
Hutchison
Stroman
Sanchez
Norris

These are other Jays SP prospects with higher ceilings:
Osuna
Hoffman
Castro
Reid-Foley
arguably Smoral, Labourt, Tirado, and Borucki

Other SP prospects similar to, but further away, than those two:
Cole
Boyd

Then there are swing guys who can spot start:
Estrada
Jenkins
Richmond
Drabek
Hendricks

So while they are both good pitchers they are, in the long term, unlikely to be part of the starting five (even eliminating the veterans, they are no higher on the list than 7 and 8) and in the near term, they have 7 good options and five emergency options - and Ricky Romero, technically. Nolin was on track to be another Brett Cecil (because of the depth, not his talent level) and Graveman could have been a reliable middle reliever getting tons of ground ball outs, in a role similar to what Redmond had this year. That has value but not as muc as they do to Oakland.

For the A's, these are guys who have a legit shot at winning rotation spots for the A's - and preforming well. Particularly Nolin who has constantly been in the shadow of sexier prospects in our system. BA slots them in as Top 10 prospects in their system and the two BEST pitcher prospects.

On my ongoing (as yet unpublished) list, I had Barreto at #4, Nolin at #13 (7th pitcher) and Graveman at #23 (11th among pitchers) which is lower than most have him. 

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The Blue Jays get, in return, the certainty Lawrie could not (yet?) provide. Seen in the context of the overall off-season, this is widely described as a complete culture change. To some it might look like AA is constantly changing direction but it seems to me to be a perfectly straight-forward program, adjusted for circumstances that didn't work out.

First, acquire a ton of minor league talent via a well thought out acquisition plan taking advantage of "exploits" in the system. When those were patched, use that talent to acquire veteran talent while modifying the acquisition process. Realize the first year might have been a "gelling" issue but after the second year, identify problems and re-mediate them. The trope afield online is that many of the exiting players were either complacent, or somewhat immature and it's hard for the fans to be certain what to believe.

BUT we do know that Martin is considered the king of clubhouse leadership and Donaldson has also got a very strong "winning atmosphere" reputation. Expect that pursuit to continue. Oh, and by the way, Donaldson will cost ~$3m more than Lawrie this year, and significantly more over the following three years of control - but the revenue from playoff baseball helps  with that kind of investment, no?

One other point-
Wilner commented on the Blue Jays This Week podcast that with two big subtractions (actually 3 if you count Rasmus) and two big additions they are short of last years offense, however...what does the WAR projection (via Steamer) say now about the Jays in 2015 vs. those who've left?

CA: Martin: 3.9
1B: Encarnacion: 3.7
2B: Izturus/Tollison: 0.6
3B: Donaldson: 5.6
SS: Reyes: 3.0
LF: Pillar: 1.4
CF: Pompey: 0.4
RF: Bautista: 5.4
DH: Dirks: 1.5
(Pompey, Dirks and 2B pro-rated to full season)\

Cabrera (LF) - 1.7
Lawrie (3B) - 4.0
Lind (DH) - 1.6
Gose or Rasmus (CF) 1.4 (Both have same projection)
Kawasaki (2B) - 0.0
Navarro (C, presumably gone) - 0.6

So comaring those cone to those replacing them, the total is 9.3 gone and 12.8 in and it's safe to say Dirks won't be the everyday DH. Not that projects like this are a guarantee, but at least they are objective.
Less objectively but not completely homerish:
Martin is pretty clearly the best catcher in the AL as it stands (w/respect to potential McCann rebound)
Encarnacion is no less than top 3 in the league
Reyes is the best SS in the AL (even with shaky D)
Donaldson in no worse than top 2, depending on how much you like Beltre
Bautista is clearly the best RF
And of the players who could contest these claims, no two of them play on the same team.



Looking ahead: The winter meetings begin a week from tomorrow and the Jays are not yet complete (even though they are arguably as good as any team in baseball already) - so I'm not going to invest the time in a prospect list until after the dust settles.

Money, Roster, and Juan Gone

I'll refrain from crowing over predicting Francisco's departure because, well, who didn't? Amiright?

I will casually note that I have repeatedly mentioned (mostly in other places obviously that DickeyThole was a tradable commodity which seem to be growing into a potential thing but to clarify, I do not mean "dump" - he has real marketable value. My suggestion was a re-allocation of resources concept.

In previous years I'd have gone 3,000 words or so refining the details of the presumed roster but those details are so much mainstream part of the conversation anymore that it would be redundant. Cotts Baseball Contracts, linked in the sidebar, is the go-to reference for salary commitments and it shows$108.55 million in guaranteed contracts (10 on the roster plus Ricky Ro) for 2015 (not including any buyout clauses except for Romero's). Likewise, MLBTR has scooped up what has become te accepted standard model for projecting arbitration-eligible player salaries (not that I don't reserve the right to quibble). The current total there is $17.3mm for 7 Blue Jays. That leaves room for 8 pre-arb guys who will collectively earn between $4 and $4.5mm. Pending future roster moves which begin, potentially, tomorrow (more on that in a sec). That totals just ever so slightly more than $130 million (notwithstanding every DL trip of course adds to the actual payroll)

That put them $7mm from last year's total, 13 from the widely assumed 150 working budget, and with theorized but unconfirmed room beyond that. My suggestion to deal Dickey for a good offensive player (one year of Justin Upton? five years of Matt Kemp?) presumes there is, in fact, a ceiling this year and it's better to fill one of the remaining holes via trade than free agency.

About that potential roster movement, here's my guess at the top 5 players mst likely to leave the Jays' 40 man roster tomorrow:

1. Bo Schultz (RHP) - most fungible
2. Matt Hague (1B/3B) - should go unclaimed
3. Cory Burns (RHP)- great control, but good day to sneak a guy through
4. Colt Hynes (LHP) - ditto, except he's also a lefty
5. Liam Hendricks (RHP) - Again, they want him, but with teams setting rosters you might sneak him through.

And the top 5 that need to be protected:

1. John Stilson (RHP) - he's coming off injury so drafting team would have flexibility; has highest upside; is closest to major league ready
2. Taylor Cole (RHP) - assuming Jays don't think his breakout was low-minors illusion
3. Blake McFarland (RFP) - AFL work put him on rival teams' radar, relievers are easier to carry through the first year.
4. Andy Burns (3B) - best position player in need of protection.
5. Sean Ochinko (C) - like McFarland, AFL raised profile. Threshold for catcher's bats are lower. Ghost of Yan Gomes looms.

As Ben Balder tweeted, it's sort of a baseball geek holiday.

Here. We. Go.

Talk about timing, eh?

As you surely know by now the Jays have, this morning, announced their presence with authority. They've sign catcher Russel Martin to what, assuming reports are accurate, the longest and richest free agent deal they've ever given to a non-incumbent. Moreover, despite Martin being only an average offensive player (which is above average for catchers) before last season, the deal has been initially met with almost universal praise from the "experts."

The reports say 5/82 which is, in a vacuum, something of an overpay. Ideally probably something like 4/52 cor 5/65 is more sensible BUT in a game flush with money driving up salaries around the game, and for a team with no previous commitments in the last two years of the contract, an extra 3 mil in overpay is NOTHING. As for 2015, the projected payroll - full breakdown coming soon - stands at just about $131 million which is about $6m short of last years payroll. That's before any other moves which seem certain to come, such as non-tenders and trades (I already assumed Francisco is gone).

As others have noted, Martin's value is more when he doesn't have a bat in his hand. He's regarded as a master pitch framer (one report has him bringing +1.4 wins in that regard compared to Navarro bringing a -1.4 figure), a master at handling the staff which can't be overstated with the wave of young pitching that will roll in over the next five seasons, and one of the best clubhouse leaders in the game - key for a team constantly whispered about in terms of clubhouse chemistry.

Martin may be fairly described as the best possible target for the Jays in this years off-season market.

The consensus, with which I concur, is that this is the first in what is likely to be a series of moves.. The discussion off Navarro getting at bats as a DH is pretty silly, because an average starting catcher in a thin market at a mere $5 mil salary has plenty of trade value and they still have 2-3 holes in the lineup and a closer job to suss out. I still think, even though the Braves having dealt Hayward kind of ruins my Upton idea, that Dickey/Thole (NOT Buehrle) are on the market for a player than can fill one of their holes. Navarro for Luis Valbuena for example? You get the idea.

An unequivocally positive move and positive indicator for the balance of the off-season.

This may not end well

I swore I was done. After 2013, my highest expectations having been well and truly crushed, I quit. Walked away. I had plenty to do and other things to write about and baseball was just too damned irrational for me to write about. Even this summer when things looked good for a while, I was prevented by having been too severely injured to type more than a couple hundred characters at a time (I'm still constrained to 2-finger typing or a Psychotic Dragon program).

Still, I allowed myself to pay attention. Then I paid attention to the (very good) draft. Then to Pompey and Norris and Barreto.God help me to the playoff chase. So here I am. Once again so enamored with my own opinion that I have to put it on the internet in quantities larger than 140 characters.


Be advised: my typing is worse and my desire to proofread has not improved. I waste entirely too much time online plus I've a passion for debating about equality issues that are actually important so content may (or may not) be sporadic. I'm not ever going to be breaking the latest news, nor plowing into the shadowy depths of sabermatics and beyond. Mostly, it will just be my opinion with a bit of rational for why I hold it. Oh, and the sidebar is hopelessly out of date.

There was a time I imagined myself to one day take my rightful place next to Tao and DJF and the other Jays bloggers of the first rank. But frankly I never worked hard enough to earn that and I have no business in that company. Still, a few dozen of you kept reading (plus, if you believe the stats on the dashboard, a sizable number of bots) so we'll see how it goes.

Here, then, to kick it off, are some random snippits of baseball content:

1. I have an entirely irrational degree of hope that martin is signed, even if the contract isn't sensible (the 5/72.5 mentioned at MLBTR? I'd totally do that)

2. Love the Gose deal because I love Pompey and really like Kevin "Reed Johnson" Pillar.

3. Fine with losing Melky, fine with the 3/39 rumored. But have a better - IMO - idea (see below)

4. Wonder if Travis won't start in AAA for a couple of months unless he ius crazy good in ST so they can go through motions of not stepping on Izturus? Or are they past such posturing? (Fun fact: From May 27 until end of his season, Travis hit .321/.385/.506/.891)

5. reports are Braves need pitching, might trade OF. Proposed - Dickey/Thole for Justin Upton. Salaries almost wash, Jays fully replace Melky without long-term commitment, Braves get quality guy who'll probably do better in NL plus an option on him for 2016, Dickey gets close to home. In fact, I'd probably try to get them to kick in one of those relievers they can spare in consideration of that second year.

Reyes
Lawrie
Bautista
Encarnacion
Upton
Martin
DH
Travis
Pompey

Ready to rock and enough salary left to sign K-Rod to close. What's not to like?