It's beginning to look like the Jays' view that Dusty McGowan's $4mm option was too much for a set-up reliever may have been a misreading of the market. Jason Motte - who missed almost all of the last two seasons - Just got $4.5mm for one year from the Cubs and a lot of middling players are getting pretty nice money.
Looking out at the increasingly unimpressive assortment of free agent relievers, more and more I'm hearing the music from Back to the Future in my head. I'm sitting here looking at Fangraphs ranking of Steamer projections for free agent relievers and it inexplicably doesn't include the one guy guy who's still out there that I have higher expectations for than anyone who is on the list. And that man (obviously) heads my list of potential signings:
1. Casey Janssen - If you consider Gregerson/Neshak the floor, and Miller/Robertson the ceiling, then Janssen should make between 6.5 and 9.5 AAV on his next deal for at least three seasons. If the Jays could get him to agree to 3/24 they ought just go ahead and do it unless they think they can do better by trading mid-to-low minors prospects.
2. Sergio Romo - I've seen commentators express lukewarm enthusiasm for Romo, noting his numbers went backwards last year and he lost the closer job at mid-season. His results DID go backwards. For two weeks. Between June 13 and June 28 he had tree bad outings in five appearances, giving up 9 runs in a collective 4.1 IP. Outside that stretch, his ERA was 2.52 and there was no good reason for him to have lost the closer job. In fact, take out June 13 alone and (5 ER in 1/3 IP) and his ERA drops from 3.72 to 2.97.
Like Janssen, I'd be happy to go ahead and sign him for a similar number, only preferring Janssen under the "devil you know" rubric. OTOH, that might be the very reason they'd prefer Romo for all I know. Less than a week ago Benny Fresh tweeted the Jays apparently hadn't checked in on him and AA is quoted as saying he's looking more to trades but I remind you how long it took after "I can't envision trading a starter" to turn into "We traded JA Happ."
3. Francisco Rodriguez* - talent wise, you might even prefer his stuff to Janssen's but he comes with a lot of off-field baggage the Jays presumably want little part of.
4. Rafiel Soriano - slightly older than K-Rod, ratios not quite as good, but tends toward fly balls fairly heavily, which tends to make him a less attractive fit for Skydome. OTOH, he doesn't beat his wife apparently.
5. Jason Grilli - entering his age 38 season, which means you don't have to guarantee three years or even two in order to have a shot. Four good years in a row, excepting the portion of last season which occurred before the trade to the Angels.
6. Dustin McGowan - I don't think last year necessarily indicated the start of a downward spiral, but if you could get him for a year and an option, at around $3mm for the first year, he's probably gonna be better than the rest of the scraps left on the market.
7. Carlos Villianueva - Remember this guy? Turns out he's much better out of the 'pen than starting, pitches best in high leverage situations, and has consistently good rates until he approaches 50 pitches then he goes south in a hurry. Used correctly, the Jays would do well to have him back.
8. Tim Stauffer- If you get the 2013 guy, great, if you get the 2014 guy, that's trouble. The former had fine home/road splits and pitched well in pressure situations, the latter...didn't.
9. Burke Badenhop - Steady, unspectacular RH who has good control, ordinary K rates but an unusually high GB rate.
10. Jesse Crain - if healthy, would be a solid pick-up and true asset, whether he'll be healthy I can't say. Not to mention the passport skill ;) - oh, but he is flyball prone so there's that too.
Also out there: Alexi Ogando(health?), Joba Chamberlain (perpetual under-achiever),Tom Grozalanny (best LH left), John Axford (He used to be a closer?), Scott Downs (minor league deal with invite just to see if he's done or not)
To me, if you can get Crain and Downs into camp ad see what they got, it's a no-brainer, whatever else you do.
Trades? Sure, but who the hell can predict trades? Start with this: Norris is only available if he brings an Ace SP with multiple years of control. Basically, Hammels. So if you take him out of the equation, is there someone with a closer you can reasonably expect to trust that you can get without dealing Norris? I dunno. I droll over Chapman but...I just don't know. Navarro might get you something, but there's only so man teams he works for. White Sox, D'Backs, Pirates, Dodgers? Braves? Rays? At least we can look them over I guess.
Tampa - Come up with a couple of enticing prospects to go with and try to pry lose Jake McGee?
Atlanta - David Carpenter? Yes, one we let get away.
LA - they are dying to trade Brandon League, JP Howell had a better year. But if you couldn't get better elsewhere, and they would kick in $5mm or so...
Pittsburgh - Melancon and Watson both look like closers (one already is of course) but either would need an infusion of good prospects to pry away.
Arizona - Evan Marshall or Randall Delgado would be a promising acquisition.
Chicago - If they had a closer, he'd have taken the job from those who attempted it in '14 (you ca see why they wanted Robertson!) - if there's any pitcher here to ask for, you might try getting still-young Daniel Webb back and see if you could teach him to command the zone. He would be in the majors ar 24 with that walk rate unless he had a live arm.
Looking ahead. . .
I still owe y'all a prospect list in some form, and I have unexpressed views about the moves so far.