Revised and amended!

So,  the Blue Jays - clearly creeping my blog for an edge! - took my suggestion on Friday to heart and flipped  Marco Estrada to today's game and Mark Beuhrle to tomorrow's contest with Boston. In so doing, as has been widely reported now, they align Buehrle and Stroman's schedule and pretty much everyone assumes that if Stroman looks good tomorrow for Buffalo that he'll take that start and Buehrle will get extra rest again. They may skip papa altogether or may just push him back - but the former option makes the rotation for the rest of the year much more straight-forward and it only seems sensible to me that I do a "Part 2" follow up to Friday's post in light of the adjustment. Trust me though, I won't keep this bit running through the rest of the season every time they make an announcement. This one - like the last - is simply about how you make the best use of Stroman as a part of a modified 6 man rotation - not an effort to keep up with every move they make.

To review, I'll again post the first chart which reflects how the current five fall if Stroman were not coming back and they stayed on turn.

7	at Boston	Buehrle	7
8	at Boston	Dickey	4
9	at Boston	Hutchinson	4
10	at New York	Price	4
11	at New York	Estrada	4
12	at New York	Buehrle	4
13	at New York	Dickey	4
14
15	at Atlanta	Hutchinson	5
16	at Atlanta	Price	5
17	at Atlanta	Estrada	5
18	Boston	Buehrle	5
19	Boston	Dickey	5
20	Boston	Hutchinson	4
21	New York	Price	4
22	New York	Estrada	4
23	New York	Buehrle	4
24
25	Tampa Bay	Dickey	5
26	Tampa Bay	Hutchinson	5
27	Tampa Bay	Price	5
28	at Baltimore	Estrada	5
29	at Baltimore	Buehrle	5
30	at Baltimore	Dickey	4
10 ' 1	at Baltimore	Hutchinson	4
2	at Tampa Bay	Price	4
3	at Tampa Bay	Estrada	4
4	at Tampa Bay	Buehrle	4

That is, of course, almost identical to the one which appeared in my post 2 days ago. The one simple switch the team made, then, makes it much easier to sort out how you integrate Stroman into the schedule:

7	at Boston	Buehrle	7
8	at Boston	Dickey	4
9	at Boston	Hutchinson	4
10	at New York	Price	4
11	at New York	Estrada	4
12	at New York	Stroman	4
13	at New York	Dickey	4
14
15	at Atlanta	Price	5
16	at Atlanta	Estrada	5
17	at Atlanta	Stroman	5
18	Boston	Buehrle	10
19	Boston	Dickey	5
20	Boston	Hutchinson	10
21	New York	Price	5
22	New York	Estrada	5
23	New York	Stroman	5
24
25	Tampa Bay	Buehrle	6
26	Tampa Bay	Dickey	6
27	Tampa Bay	Price	5
28	at Baltimore	Estrada	5
29	at Baltimore	Stroman	5
30	at Baltimore	Buehrle	4
10 ' 1	at Baltimore	Dickey	4
2	at Tampa Bay	Price	4
3	at Tampa Bay	Estrada	4
4	at Tampa Bay	Stroman	4

There are alternate versions, primarily flowing off whether or not you try to push Buehrle back from the NY start or skip him altogether, but I think the latter produces a much more consistent result. Notice that after tomorrows game, which is going to be 7 days either way, you have two pitchers who skip a start, and otherwise everyone is on either 4 or 5 days' rest except for 2 games with 6 days, which go to the two older guys. Of course, to do this I dropped Hutchinson for the last two weeks. The alternative to this would be to take a start away from some other starter and in this, he draws the short straw not by luck but by his own doing.

I'll be watching to see how the Jays line them up after the next off day to see if we're thinking alike.


All the Minor league seasons are done after tomorrow, save Lansing's playoff games, and I'll be getting together my version of the season review and look back and the pre-season top 40 at my earliest convenience. 

Proposed Rotation for The 6

Isn't there something serendipitous about a hot team that represents a city thats lately been refereed to as "The 6" suddenly has six solid options for the five man rotation? The 6 pitchers will need to be handled in such a way as to maximize their Ace and provide extra rest for the older members of the rotation, here's my proposal.

First, let's look at the schedule as it would fall if the current five-man rotation goes in order (apart from the already announced weekend flip of Price and Buehrle - which may be indicative) along with the number of days rest that starter would have before the given turn.

4	Baltimore	Hutchinson	5
5	Baltimore	Price	4
6	Baltimore	Buehrle	6
7	at Boston	Estrada	5
8	at Boston	Dickey	5
9	at Boston	Hutchinson	4
10	at New York	Price	4
11	at New York	Buehrle	4
12	at New York	Estrada	4
13	at New York	Dickey	4
14
15	at Atlanta	Hutchinson	5
16	at Atlanta	Price	5
17	at Atlanta	Buehrle	5
18	Boston	Estrada	5
19	Boston	Dickey	5
20	Boston	Hutchinson	4
21	New York	Price	4
22	New York	Buehrle	4
23	New York	Estrada	4
24
25	Tampa Bay	Dickey	5
26	Tampa Bay	Hutchinson	5
27	Tampa Bay	Price	5
28	at Baltimore	Buehrle	5
29	at Baltimore	Estrada	5
30	at Baltimore	Dickey	4
10 ' 1	at Baltimore	Hutchinson	4
2	at Tampa Bay	Price	4
3	at Tampa Bay	Buehrle	4
4	at Tampa Bay	Estrada	4

As you can tell, Beuhrle got a +1 for six days off before this start Sunday and it demonstrates something about how they want to give him some rest. The same might in theory apply to Dickey but knuckleballers are obviously different and we've seen no indication of them backing him off, nor of his performance being anything like an issue. In fact, in his 2.78 post-break ERA, and 3.18 over his last 18 starts certainly says no (Buehrle by that measure is 3.99 since the break and 2.90 in his last 21starts). Estrada? 3.35 as a SP, but 2.44 in his last 14 starts. Even the enigmatic Hutchison is at 3.76 since the break and 4.11 n his last 19 starts which is not awful, and his xFIP has been the best in the rotation (other than Price) all year. Also, for those wondering about maximizing Price, even if you keep him on 4 days rest consistently, you can't (as I've pointed out before but members of the media keep not noticing apparently) get another regular season start from him.

Now, Stroman will pitch for Buffalo on September 7, Labor Day, so he can't start for the Jays before September 12.  Here is, after experimenting some, my best proposition for how to do a modified-not-quite-six-man-rotation.

4	Baltimore	Hutchinson	5
5	Baltimore	Price	4
6	Baltimore	Buehrle	6
7	at Boston	Estrada	5
8	at Boston	Dickey	5
9	at Boston	Hutchinson	4
10	at New York	Price	4
11	at New York	Buehrle	4
12	at New York	Stroman	4
13	at New York	Estrada	4
14
15	at Atlanta	Dickey	6
16	at Atlanta	Price	5
17	at Atlanta	Hutchinson	7
18	Boston	Stroman	5
19	Boston	Estrada	5
20	Boston	Buehrle	8
21	New York	Price	4
22	New York	Dickey	6
23	New York	Stroman	4
24
25	Tampa Bay	Estrada	5
26	Tampa Bay	Buehrle	5
27	Tampa Bay	Hutchinson	9
28	at Baltimore	Price	6
29	at Baltimore	Stroman	5
30	at Baltimore	Dickey	7
10 ' 1	at Baltimore	Estrada	5
2	at Tampa Bay	Buehrle	5
3	at Tampa Bay	Price	4
4	at Tampa Bay	Stroman	4

First things first, in the original rotation everyone has six turns left except Dickey who has five.  In the modified, it breaks down like this:

Price - 6
Buehrle, Estrada, Stroman - 5
Dickey, Hutch - 4

So Stroman takes one each from Estrada, Buehrle and Dickey and 2 from Hutch, which is unfortunate given his recent success, but worth it in my opinion. Taking a closer look, Buehrle at New York on the 11th would be nice to avoid, but if he pitches Sunday there's no way around it. If Gibby would push him back to Monday, then you could put Stroman in for him the next turn and just skip him that time through, but in the absence of such an announcement (and given my history on this blog, one will come within 12 hours of my posting this article) I'm going to assume it's not happening.  

Beyond that, Dickey has the +1 day because of Stroman and the off-day on the 9/15 game at Atlanta. Which is actually a small bonus pushing the former NL player into a no-DH game. Hutch goes two days later with 7 days off which is just happenstance, but pitching on the road against a weak team will be an interesting test of his recent success vs. his bizarre splits. The next noteworthy date is 9/20 when Buehrle goes having essentially skipped a start. That should take care of the rest issue and still give him a practical chance to hit 200 IP again. Two days later Dickey again turns up on 6 days rest but that's just where he plugs in.

On 9/27 Hutch gets the last home game, having skipped a start and avoided any more road starts ("coincidentally"). The next day Price goes on 6 days rest, which may seem odd but it keeps Buehrle from going 7 days again - you want him to get his normal routine back before the post-season - and
 it still keeps Price lined up for the first game of a semi-finals series on his regular rest. Plus he might benefit from a small breather anyway. On the last day of the month, Dickey goes having gotten 7 days for no particular reason, that's just where he falls in accommodating the needs of others. As a knuckleballer he should be better equipped to go on an odd number of days than standard pitchers. After that everyone falls into a 4/5 off day "normal" rotation. Thus over the course of 29 games and 31 days, a SP will get more than 5 days rest 8 times. Once for Price, twice for Hutch and Buehrle, three times for Dickey and not at all for Estrada or Stroman (the freshest arm, after all). Perhaps interesting, if you push Buehrle back to Monday of the upcoming week, then skip that NY start to give it to Stroman, then you can line up the rest of the year such that you only have four occasions when a SP has had more than the customary 4/5 days, and  3 of the 4 would fall to Buehrle.

In terms of match-ups, I've mentioned getting Dickey into the NL game, within the week following you move Buehrle into the 9/20 game vs. Boston and out of 9/22 against the Yankees who have a good history against him. You end up the year with your theoretical play-off rotation in order with Price and Stroman back to back as you'd need them for games on October 8 & 9.

All this, of course, assume no setbacks.


Coming up in the next few days (hopefully!!), I'll do a review of the minor league system including a look back at my top prospect list and how those who are left in the system faired, along with noting any surprises or players I failed to list in the spring, as we get ready for the next showdown with the New York Yankees coming up in one short week.  







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