Wednesday, 14 March 2012

AL Contenders - the Fangraphs comp: Part 2

Continuing the previous discussion, this time concerning the pitching. I'm going to do this a bit differently than they did at Fangraphs since I had to split this into two posts anyway. Rather than list them by units, I want to compare them one at a time. For the most part I'll go with the order they used according to projected WAR but I will at times modify them in order to match similar guys (the more veteran guys, the lefties, the youngsters, the other guy, etc).

Also, as before, I reserve the right to modify something I think is glaringly wrong, but I will note where I make such a change.

Followed by a total for the starters and commentary, then I'll repeat the process for the bullpens.

The AL Average of IP by starters in 2011 was 982, however, the average for these seven teams was 995. and for the purpose of this exercise, I'll pro rate all these teams in order to get them to 1000 IP, +/-20.

ROTATION

Starter #1

DT - Verlander - 6.5
LAA - Weaver - 5.5
NYY - Sabathia - 5.5
TBR - Price - 4.5
BRS - Lester - 5.5
TR - Darvish - 4.0
TBJ - Romero - 3.5

Ricky's high value for WAR, as measured by Fangraphs, was actually in 2010 when it was 4.1 and, frankly, I think he's roughly as good as he's going to get. in any given year he might have a career year and spike up over 5, but most of the time that 4-4.5 range is probably what you can expect. In that sense, most of the guys here are clearly on a somewhat higher plane, though I think Lester might be a candidate to regress back away from the leaders a bit. Look for Price to be the candidate to jump to the top of this list by next year.

Starter #2

LAA - Haran - 5.0
TBR - Shields - 4.0
DT - Fister - 4.0
TBJ - Morrow - 3.5
NYY - Pineda - 3.5
TR - Harrison - 3.0
BRS - Beckett - 2.5

Sort of the reverse, here, in my mind. in that Morrow has a considerably higher ceiling than what the projection systems are able to identify. i'm not complaining about ZIPS here, it can only work with the actual events that are factored in, but Morrow could easily be at the top of this list by October. And in reality, a year from now he's more likely to be on the #1 list and Romero on this one which would be a much more even comparison. Shields and Fister are both candidates to drop a bit more than this too, IMO.

In order to properly compare these teams, let me add the results of the top two spots together as the "top tier" of the respective rotations:

LAA: 10.5
DT: 10.5 (I think this might be a bit high - I don't believe in Fister that much)
NYY: 9.0
TBR - 8.5
BRS: 8.0
TBJ: 7.0
TR: 7.0

I think, call me a homer, that it's easy to see another 2-3 WAR out of the Jays top 2. Admittedly if Price spikes as he very well might that still puts them on top of the division in this comparison but I think all four ALE teams are much more closely matched than the projections here reflect. All of them in the 8-10 WAR range.

Starter #3

LAA - Wilson - 5.0
DT - Scherzer - 3.5
TBR - Moore - 3.0
TR - Holland - 3.0
TBJ - Alvarez - 2.5 (pro-rated to 190 IP)
BRS - Buchholtz - 2.0 (only 140 IP)
NYY - Nova - 2.0

(Yes, I know that Cecil is nominally the #3 starter for now, but alvarez is better than hi in my view)

I worry that Moore might be even better than 3.0, but rookie pitchers don't always run wild so we'll have to see - but he's a candidate for better results than projected. With Alvarez, I just boosted up the IP a bit. You could potentially do the same with Buchholtz. Really, the AL East is pretty well matched up at this spot. Everyone sitting in the 2.5-3 range with Nova potentially a step behind.

Starter #4

LAA - Santana - 2.5
TBR - Hellickson - 2.5
DT - Porcello - 2.5
TR - Lewis - 2.5
NYY - Kuroda - 2.0
BRS - Bard - 2.0 (120 IP)
TBJ - Cecil - 1.0 (100 IP)

Cecil should go more than 100 IP, so he's rated lower in results than he should be. That and his weight-loss situation might lead to maybe twice the results projected here. I have no idea how they figure Bard doing that well. It's been a long time since he started and he wasn't very good when he did (in the low minors). I think one should be really cautious about presuming the transition will go smoothly. Bottom line is that the all the contenders here are in the 2-2.5 neighborhood in terms of projections and essentially this spot is a wash.

Starter #5

TBR - Neimann - 2.0 (130)
TR - Feliez - 2.0 (130)
TBJ - McGowan - 1.0 (100 - they had only 50)
NYY - Garcia - 1.0 (100)
DT - Turner - 1.0 (100)
BRS - Cook - 1.0 (100)
LAA - Williams -0.5 (75)

Some models suggest Wade Davis will be the Rays #5 but I used the guy with the best projection here. I'm torn regarding McGowan as I don't like to assume injury, but the more I increase his innings the more I impact Drabek and I have a strong feeling they will get a lot of major league quality out of Drabek this year. Garcia might now be supplanted by Petite but there's no projections for him. Turner is out indefinitely so Detroit will need to make an acquisition or patch over this spot.

The take-away for me here is that the only teams here with the chance to have the "#5" spot vault into a high WAR resource are Texas (Feliz being a complete wild card) and Toronto (either by a healthy vintage McGowan or a revived Drabek or some combination thereof.

At worst the Jays are on par with the others here, and could gain an advantage.

Starter #6

NYY - Hughes - 1.0
TBR - Davis - 1.0
TR - Feldman - 0.5
LAA - Mills - 0.5
BRS - Miller - 0.0
DT - Oliver - 0.0
TBJ - Drabek - (0.5)

Not that there's a big swing here between the top and bottom of this list, but there's no way Drabek is that bad again. the system simply doesn't have a metric which can measure changing circumstances. Davis is facing a crowded situation but even if he was a full timer, he's just ordinary; Hughes is in an even worse position now that Petite is back and will likely be relieving.

The Jays are better situated at the back of the rotation than any of these teams are, IMO.

Total:

LAA - 19.0
TBR - 17.0
DT - 17.0
TR - 15.0
NYY - 15.0
BRS - 12.0
TBJ - 11.0

That's there numbers. Here's mine.
*I think LA is about right.
*I think the Rays will get more from Price, and less from Shields and will see there run of good luck concerning rotation health maybe come to an end. But I still think they tic upward a bit.
*I think the Tigers lose some on Fister and maybe Scherzer.
*The Yankess might get another top-shelf season from Sabathia and a tic less from Pineda than projected but are in the right neighborhood.but
*Texas is reasonable given you can't rationally guess what Darvish will do.
*Boston will get less from Bard, more from Buchholtz, but overall are in the right area.
*Toronto will get much more from Morrow (at least 2 WAR if not more) and more like 2.5 out of McGowan/Drabek rather than 0.5

So make it more like this:

LAA - 19.0
TBR - 19.0
TBJ - 15.0
NYY - 15.0
DT - 15.0
TR - 15.0
BRS - 13.0

BULLPEN


Closer

NYY - Rivera - 1.5
TBJ - Santos - 1.0
LAA - Walden - 1.0
BRS - Bailey - 1.0
TBR - Farnsworth - 1.0
DT - Valverde - 0.5 (?)
TR - Nathan - 0.5

A WAR comparison is really insufficient to discuss the bullpen. I'm not sure anyone takes it at face value that Rivera is only worth 0.5 WAR more than Farnsworth, so I'll take more liberties here. Rivera is considerably better than everyone else here, even at his age. of the others, only Walden and Santos have any potential for upward mobility. The rest fall into the "they are what they are" category. At the moment, only NY has a significant edge.

Setup

NYY - Robertson - 1.5 (injury)
TR - Ogando - 1.5
TBJ - Oliver - 1.0
LAA - Downs - 1.0
BRS - Melancon - 1.0
DT - Benoit - 1.0
TBR - Peralta - 0.5

It jumps out a bit here to me that the Rays are a half-step behind, Peralta surely doesn't have the track record of some of the other guys here. But there's not much of a divide here, if any. the main thing to note is that Ogando would have the potential to break out and be dominante.

Setup

NYY - Soriano - 1.5
TR - Adams - 1.0
LAA - Takahashi - 1.0
BRS - Aceves - 1.0
TBR - McGee - 0.5
DT - Dotel - 0.5
TBJ - Cordero - 0.0

There was a time when Soriano was dominant, it's difficult to guess if he will be again. The system for some reason doesn't like Cordero here but I have a hard time believing a finding that he's less valuable than Dotel. McGee's the guy who might take a significant step forward here.

Middle

TR - Uehara - 1.0
TBJ - Janssen - 1.0
LAA - Thompson - 0.5
BRS - Albers - 0.5
NYY - Chamberlain - 0.5 (injury!)
DT - Coke - 0.5
TBR - Rodney - 0.0

Chamberlain is going to miss a big chunk of the season, which the system apparently didn't allow for, but I'm going to assume Hughes picks up that slack. I would thing the top two guys here bring more clear value to their teams than the others, and the difference is greater than 0.5 WAR regardless of what the system says.

Middle

NYY - Logan - 1.0
TBJ - Frasor - 0.5
TR - Tateyama - 0.5
LAA - Hawkins - 0.5
DT - Alburquerque - 0.0 (out til mid-season)
TBR -
BRS -

It says something when you get deep enough that some teams start running out of guys that have been projected. That's not to say they don't have candidates, but no reliable "likely" pitcher in that role. The marginal difference between Logan and Frasor here is real, but largely inconsequential.

Totals:

NYY - 6.0
TR - 4.5
LAA - 4.0
TBJ - 3.5
BRS - 3.5
DT - 2.5
TBR - 2.0

Might be a tad generous to the Yankees but that's balanced by the way the system doesn't reward Rivera so I'm ok with it.


Combined pitching totals:

LAA - 23.0
NYY - 21.0
DT - 19.5
TR - 19.5
TBR - 19.0
BRS - 15.5
TBJ - 14.5

To repeat, I am not taking issue with ZIPS but I fully expect Morrow, and McGowan/Drabek to significantly boost the Blue jays totals here putting them right in the same neighborhood as the Rays.


Team Grand Total:


NYY - 53.4
BRS - 51.1
TR - 50.9
LAA - 48.5
TBR - 46.7
DT - 42.5
TBJ - 41.8

So on (their) paper, the Blue Jays still have a 5 WAR gap between them and the Rays and Angels (and more than that between them and the Red sox but there's no way I buy Boston being that high).

To review, I see Morrow as +2 (at least), the #5 spot as +2 (at least); and LF at +! at least. There's also some potential for Lind, Johnson, Rasmus, Cecil, and Santos to do better than the WAR figures used in these calculations. Which is to say, within 5 is certainly striking distance, but I can't pretend that this system does not leave a greater gap to overcome than my predictions have.

Which is cool, there's only so far you can go with objective mathematical calculations.

But the Jays need to find 5 or more WAR somewhere. And I, for one, am confident they are there to be found in some combination.
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Tuesday, 13 March 2012

AL Contenders - the Fangraphs comp: Part 1

Over the previous week, Fangraphs posted a site-wide project which ranked every major league team by position. The master link is here, which also includes links to the Top 15 prospects for each team. It is my purpose in this post to compare the rankings for all the teams I consider to be contenders. This is primarily related to the teams who have the ability to keep the Blue Jays out of the playoffs, though I will include also the Detroit Tigers as the nominal AL Central winner. If you believe someone else will win that division, bully for you - but I don't think one observer in 10,000 thinks the wild card will come out of that division so I won't bother to comment on it, or to comment on the Tigers other than to simply include them in the stat sets.

My interest here is not simply comparing their rankings, you can do that easily enough, but to look into them a bit more intensely. There are some places where I will quibble with, even modify, the figures they use and when that happens I will explain what my reasoning was. Also, my primary focus will be on the starters, unless there's a clear specific reason to do otherwise (again, this will be covered in the comments). the reason for this is because one of the things I consistently question is the playing time assumptions which emerge from the ZIPS projections which served as the basis for their rankings. For the sake of length, I'll take the batters in this post and save the pitchers for part 2.

To be clear, these are their projections filtered through my opinions - just repeating their info is hardly worth the effort.

The format here is as follows:
Team - Starting Player (in most cases) - projected WAR (theirs modified at times by me) - note

Catcher (includes reserves):

TR - Napoli/Torrealba - 5.0 - we'll see if Napoli will ACTUALLY catches more
DT - Avila/Laird - 4.5 - personally I expect a bigger decline, too many PA
LAA - Iantetta/Wilson - 4.0 - a lot of folks still think Ianetta will make a big jump
NYY - Martin/Cervelli - 3.0 - Martin has a bit more health issues than he used to.
BRS - Saltalamacchia/Shoppach - 3.0 - they include 0.5 from rookie Ryan Lanaway.
TBJ - Arencibia/Mathis - 2.5 - they include 0.5 from d'Arnaud.
TBR - Molina/?? - 1.0 - this could get ugly.

With respect to the Ianetta believers, Arencibia is the one guy here who has some room to spike. But probably not by more than 1 WAR or less. On the other hand, I don't think Avila is that good (and both he and Iantettta are rated too many PA for my tastes) so in my mind everyone here except Napoli is pretty much on the same 3-4 WAR level. If he (Napoli) doesn't play more at catcher than last year, then no one has much of an edge here, but the Rays are well behind the pack.

First Base:

LAA - Pujols - 5.5 - Duh. could be higher of course, ZIPS is always conservative.
BRS - Gonzalez - 5.1 - Another guy who was higher than this in '11
NYY - Teixeira - 3.9 - Pretty solid projection IMO
DT - Fielder - 3.5 - overall it goes up a tic for the days Cabrera relieves Fielder
TBR - Pena - 2.2 - shouldn't be better, could easily be worse
TBJ - Lind - 1.3 - best year was 3.7, as a DH, they presume a small addition from EE
TR - Moreland - 0.9 - position tics up a bit for contribution from Napoli/Young

Any way you slice it, there are at least two tiers here. In a perfect revival of his former self, Lind could move into the 4-4.5 range, but if he reaches 3 Jays fans would have to be relieved.

BRS - Pedroia - 7.0 - seems very high to me
TR - Kinsler - 6.5 - another rosy projection, IMO.
TBR - Zobrist - 6.0 - if he stays at 2B; might be a bit rosy too
NYY - Cano - 5.5 - he's a bit more consistent
LAA - Kendrick - 3.0 - makes more sense
TBJ - Johnson - 2.5 - ZIPS hit him harder
DT - Raburn - 1.5 - might change in odd ways if Inge wins the job

Here's the strange thing. let's take each of these guys (save Raburn), and get the WAR per 150 games for the last five years of their career, the last 3, and add a column for last season, and compare that to the projection above.

Pedroia - 5.4 - 6.3 - 8.0
Kinsler - 5.4 - 5.9 - 7.7
Zobrist - 5.3 - 6.3 - 6.6 (not all at 2B)
Cano - 4.0 - 5.1 - 5.6
Kendrick - 3.7 - 4.2 - 5.8
Johnson - 3.2 - 3.3 - 2.2 (not all at 2B)

Now I admit I'm not mathematician and the calculations behind ZIPS are beyond my understanding. But it seems to me that in at least the top two guys there have a too-optimistic projection. And Kendrick and Johnson's is too pessimistic by a bit. Still, you can't really dispute that the latter two are on a lower tier.

Shortstop:

TBJ - Escobar - 4.5 - pleasantly surprised
TR - Andrus - 4.0 - the value of Defense
LAA - Aybar - 3.5 - a bit higher than I'd have guessed
NYY - Jeter - 2.5 - how the mighty have fallen
DT - Peralta - 2.0 - don't expect a repeat
TBR - Rodriguez - 2.0 - seems quite high to me, but it's not.
BRS - Aviles - 1.5 - they expect 1 from Punto as well.

The Red Sox are especially hard to project because who knows how the playing time will work out. Nice to see the Jays on top here.

Third Base::

TBR - Longoria - 7.0 - reasonable
DT - Cabrera - 5.5 - so much offense, D can't pull it down
TR - Beltre - 5.5 - so much defense it elevates the overall total
TBJ - Lawrie - 5.0 - no idea why the team rank was so low
BRS - Youklis - 5.0 - I think this is high
NYY - Rodriguez - 4.0 - health could spike this up
LAA - Trumbo - 1.5 - defensive projection is optimistic, IMO

Toronto was behind Boston for no reason i can discern on the list, but of the two, Lawrie has a vastly better chance of spiking than Youk does so I flipped them Brett could legitimately top this list by year's end. VERY easily be at least #2

Right Field:

TBJ - Bautista - 6.5 - Legit
TR - Cruz - 3.5 - some contributions from Murphy
NYY - Swisher - 3.5 - pretty consistent value
TBR - Joyce - 2.5 - if he figures out lefties this could improve
LAA - Hunter - 2.5 - age? slipage?
BRS - Sweeney/Ross - 2.0 I don't like listing platoons but that's the plan here
DT - Boesch - 1.5 - how long will he hold the job?

Nothing really to remark upon here.

Center Field:

BRS - Ellsbury - 7.0 - 9.4 in '11, previous high 4.3
NYY - Granderson - 5.5 - Was 7.0 in '11 a new level?
LAA - Bourjos - 4.5 - the power of great defense
TBR - Upton - 4.0 - rankings give too much credit to reserves
TBJ - Rasmus - 3.0 - see comments below
DT - Jackson - 3.0 - again mostly defense here
TR - Gentry/Borbon - 2.5 - not a platoon but they split the AB

The elephant in the room, for me, is how they figured Rasmus. The actual Fangraph's list has him at 1.5, but look at this:

500 PA / .250 - .322 - .454 - .776 / 0 (that's defense) = 1.5 war
550 PA / .264 - .360 - .418 - .778 / -2 = 3.0
400 PA / .270 - .331 - .435 - .766 / 0 = 3.0
600 PA / .278 - .322 - .447 - .769 / 2 = 3.0

Someone explain it to me: how does the top line rate out to half the WAR of the others? He beats out one of them on defense (with comparable offense), the next one on playing time (with comparable rates) so neither of those make a good argument against the third. If defense played such a huge role, how come the second guy - with fewer PA - rates exactly the same as the 4th guy? If it's playing time, how come #3 and #4 are the same?

I'm forced to conclude some sort of calculation error regarding Rasmus and have arbitrarily fixed it, pending someone explaining the difference. And oh by the way, Rasmus had a 4.3 in 2010 so he could flirt with third or even second on that list.

Left Field:

NYY - Gardner - 5.0 - ordinary bat, great wheels and insane glove
TR - Hamilton - 3.5 - if he can stay out there
BRS - Crawford - 3.0 - might assume too many PA
TBR - Jennings - 2.5 - potential to rise
DT - Young - 1.5 - might be someone else
TBJ - (Thames) - 1.0 - I think it will be Snider
LAA - Wells - 0.5 - how long until Trout forces their hand?

A few things - one is I don't buy this level of defensive value in Gardner, I think it's a weakness of the math. Second, Hamilton can go up with health, Crawford can go down if the hand bothers him. Watch for Jennings to go up.

My strongest view though is of course on the Jays LF situation. I think it's going to be Snider and I think the team always planned for it to be if he showed them what they wanted in the spring. The have to say nice things about Thames to respect his season last year, but Snider should be a special guy (as should Rasmus). And Snider, in basically half a season of PA in 2010 was at 1.2 and his defense has improved. so if he even just gets back to that level he's up to around 2.5 - and I'm expecting 3 or better this season.

DH:

BRS - Ortiz - 2.0 - DH values are suppressed of course by lack of defense
TBJ - Encarnacion - 1.0 - steady production assumed
LAA - Morales - 0.5 - if healthy . . .
TBR - Scott - 0.5 - might bounce back
TR - Young - 0 - they assume some value from Napoli
DT - Young - 0 - oddly they give him the most PA here too
NYY - Ibanez - (0.5) - this can't last?


If Ortiz is only at 2.0 (he was at 4.2 last year) then there's not really a lot of swing here. Morales was at 3.4 at his peak but that included defense.



Totals for the batters:

BRS - 35.6 (39% Pedroia and Ellsbury)
NYY - 32.4
TR - 31.4
TBR - 27.7
TBJ - 27.3
LAA - 25.5
DT - 23

I think the Jays have more potential to move up than down - Snider, Lawrie, Lind and maybe Johnson have upward potential - even Bautista might not regress as much as they think. I think this total could break 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox are over-rated by these projections IMO. Ellsbury has had one year at the elite level, Pedroia isn't regressed as much as seems logical, Youk is more likely to go down than up, Crawford has the injury issue, and the SS and RF situation could get ugly. Crawford may need the help of graduates of sports medicine schools. The Rays and Yanks seem less volatile, though I can see TB picking up another WAR or two from Jennings.
In my opinion, all four teams (and Texas) fall within a range of 29-33 WAR. the Angels are running behind but they will do much better on the SP and make up ground.

The pitching comparison and final totals are up next.


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Saturday, 10 March 2012

AL East Match-ups: Toronto v. New York

Wrapping up my series of previews with the AL East contenders (you'll note there was no post on the Orioles) with a look at the New York Yankees.

I will follow the format of my previous post with all the standard caveats. As before, my opinion of the potential of the Blue Jays players is reflected in my team preview post, and the same philosophy is applied to the opposing team - that is a reasonable view of what is possible, without being overly optimistic or pessimistic, assuming health. also, one should NOT see these INDIVIDUAL projections as a TEAM projection. some players will exceed my guesses, others will fail them, and some will get hurt. this is a 100% guarantee. It's just impossible to know WHICH will do what.

Catchers: Arencibia v. Martin

This comparison is hard to make a distinction on without making some assumptions. Martin is the better defender, at this point. JPA stands to be the better hitter going forward, given age and injury consideration. How much better he hits, and how much that might outweigh defensive considerations remains to be seen. For now it's safest to just mark this one a push.

First Base: Lind v. Teixeira

There's really no point in a long winded analysis here. Tex seems to be slacking off but he's young enough to rebound to previous levels. Lind obviously has been at that level before but only once and with a much steeper drop-off. Bottom line is that whatever they might in theory be capable of, you have to give this one to NY.

Second Base: Johnson v. Cano

Even less analysis here. Johnson's best year doesn't really compare to Cano's routine year.

Shortstop: Escobar v. Jeter

Jeter is, of course, a hall-of-fame player, or was in his prime. But those days are years in his past. He's not remotely the fielder Esco is and lately he hasn't been the hitter Yunel is either. This is an easy win for the Blue Jays.

Third Base: Lawrie v. Rodriguez

I'm inclined to call this a slight win for Lawrie given A-Rod's recent health record. but one must grudgingly acknowledge that, as wildly unlikely as it seems, Lawrie could in theory have a "sophomore slump" which would impact his results as well. I really do expect the Jays to get better results but I'll call this one a push for this year.

Right Field: Bautista v. Swisher

Swisher was down a bit last year, and might regress to his former levels or might be in somewhat of a decline. But his best work is not on par with what Bautista has been doing. Easy win for the Blue Jays.

Center Field: Rasmus v. Granderson

Granderson was an MVP candidate last year, but before we get all intimidated about how good he is, let's remember that he came into 2011 with an OPS of .822 and an OPS+ of 113. He had another year like 2011 in 2007, but outside those two seasons he's been on a much more approachable level. I'm prepared to assume he's much more likely to be in the .810-.820 range going forward than to expect he's going to keep hanging around in the .900 neighborhood. In that lower neighborhood, he's actually not as good as Rasmus was in 2010 (at 23!) but there's the matter of the much shorter track record. As strange as it sounds to say coming off their respective 2011 seasons, Rasmus COULD outhit Granderson in 2012. But even i can't base this comparison on that possibility. For now, the edge goes to New York.

Left Field: Snider v. Gardner

This gets tricky because of the considerable differences in the skill set of the two players in question. but before i get into that let me boil it down to a baseline. Here are their slash-line stats and OPS+ from 2010:

TS: .255/.304/.463/.767/105
BG: .277/.383/.379/.762/105

For each player, it was their best season to date. Snider was 22, Gardner was 26. Gardner actually fell off to his previous level last year and probably and OPS+ of 85-90 is pretty much all that he is. As a hitter. However, he's also blazing on the basepaths and an insanely good defender (by all accounts). These matter. Snider, on the other hand, is probably at least as good as he was in 2010 and very likely well better than that. He's capable of stealing 20 or so bases and is an above average fielder, so he's not a complete zero on those points. I'm not in the school that places a huge amount of value in relative defense between two good defenders (it would matter more if Gardner were being compared to, say, Vlad Guerrero) and I still find Snider's offensive upside compelling. Though I'm suitably impressed with 49 SB, I'm going to call this a push in an effort to compensate for any homerism in my urge to pick Snider.


Ibanez will be 40 before mid-season and is apparently in steep decline. Andruw Jones - or whomever he's relieving in the outfield - will probably fill this spot against every LHP and he'll be very good if he repeats last year's pattern. But even when protected from lefties, Ibanez isn't good and is getting worse. EE still has the potential to step up another level (remember that from May 29 until the end of 2011, his OPS was .869), but where he's at right now is good enough to come out ahead here. Edge Blue Jays.

While admittedly I'm being generous in LF based on my confidence in Snider, that works out 3 for the Jays, 3 for the Yanks, and 3 as a push. But hold your criticism for a second.

Comparing lineups (based on above observations):

Escobar v. Jeter - Jays
Johnson v. Granderson - Yankees
Bautista v. Cano - Jays
Lind v. Rodriguez - Yankees
Encarnacion v. Teixeira - Yankees
Rasmus v. Swisher - push
Lawrie v. Ibanez - Jays
Snider v. Martin - Jays
Arencibia v. Gardner - Yankees

Here things look good for the Blue Jays again. Despite all that, I can't in good conscious rate the Blue Jays on quite the same level as the Yankees here. there's a lot of projection in LF, the places where the Yankees win (1B, 2B, and CF) they don't just win but they win HUGE (with the noted caveat regarding CF). I think there's an argument they are closer than one might have guessed - the Yankees were 124 runs better than the Jays in 2011 - because the Jays have a reasonable expectation of significant upgrades at three positions and a solid possibility of improvement at 2-3 others, while the Yanks should be relatively static.


Turning to the pitching . . .


Sabathia's ERA+ over the last six seasons combined is 143, and it's not been lower than 136 in that span. Romero's was 146 last year (almost identical to CC's 147). All that said, you can't rationally claim Romero is as solid an asset at this point, his very best is CC's day-at-the-office. Give this one to NY until and unless relative ages changes things.

Pinada, 23, was quite good last year, and went through an adjustment/counter-adjustment cycle and came out good on the other side. But most see Morrow as a true-ace in disguise and expect at any given time he might bust out into top-tier production. It's difficult to project how Pineda will handle the adjustment to the AL East, the pressure of NY, or the sophomore adjustments, and it's no easier to project when it comes together for Morrow, but given age and experience i lean towards the latter for 2012. Slight edge Blue Jays.


Cecil has upside, but that upside (say something like 2-3 WAR) is right where Kuroda already lives. It's possible age, and the harder division, will mitigate the difference but for now you have to assume an edge for New York.


When Ivan Nova was 21, he was a mediocre (statistically) pitcher in the Florida State League. When Henderson Alvarez was 21, he was out-pitching the 24 year old Nova in the AL East (albeit in a 10 game sample). Alvarez is simply a better pitcher, right now, and he has a higher ceiling IMO. Edge - Blue Jays


Here's a comparison in which McGowan's injury history doesn't look quite as bad. Garcia accumulated less than 150 innings from 2007 to 2009 and had only 25 starts last year. Garcia is an above average pitcher, albeit last year's results sure look fluky since he hasn't pitched that well since 2004. But McGowan, if he's out there, is a top-of-the-rotation guy. I've explained my reasons for assuming health before, and even though that philosophy is tested sternly by McGowan, I have to be consistent. Get ready for the Summer of Dusty and chalk this one up to the Blue Jays.



No, I'm not going to dance on this one. New York.


If healthy, Robertson deserves the nod here - but he's having some issues this spring so we'll see. For now, edge New York.


Logan has turned into a good little lefty, but Oliver has turned into an excellent one. Edge Blue Jays.


Soriano has a weird sort of "inconsistent" vibe despite being pretty good to very good most years. Frasor's middle name lately is consistent. Still, on pure stats, i have to give the nod to New York.


No real comparison here, Wade had a good hear last year but Janssen has apparently hit an excellent groove. Edge Blue Jays.


In 2009 the Yankees resigned themselves to putting Hughes in the bullpen and he responded with an excellent season. This year they appear to have enough depth to send him back to that role assuming everyone stays healthy and it may be that he will blossom again. The scouting says he should be better than he's shown most years.
Villainueva was very good in relief last year but the track record and scouting says you go with Hughes here. Edge - New York. Slightly.


Perez v. ???

Take away three appearances in the first half of September and Perez was excellent last year, but he doesn't come with the pedigree. Who knows who the Yankees will run out here, but that alone tells you who wins this spot.



I'll take some heat, I'm sure, for supposing these two have a similar rotation - if Dusty pitches 150 innings they would be even apart from CC's edge over Ricky. And that would largely wash out if Morrow does break out. but I think it's solid. On the other hand, I have to acknowledge that on paper, they have a bullpen that might be better - and has the benefit of being all returning players (at least six deep) which does matter.

The Yankees are clearly projectable as a better team, and they hardly ever seem to fall prey to the inertia of things going wrong as other teams do. but they do have places where they can fall short of projections. Maybe on of these years they will actually do so.
***

So based on everything I've said in this and the previous posts in the last month, I'm going to suggest a prediction for the final standings between the four. As always, the win total should be seen as a +/-3 figure since there's just enough variables to make anything more precise kind of silly.

NYY : 96-66
TBR: 91-71
TBJ: 89-73
BRS: 87-75

In coming days, I want to take an in-depth look at the Fangraphs positional rankings but I'm not sure when.
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Monday, 5 March 2012

AL East Match-ups: Toronto v. Tampa Bay

Noted in passing that Jesse Litsch is on the shelf for at least six weeks after a fluke setback to his recent course of treatment. the nerd in me notes that if the jays needed to manage his return in the most roster friendly way while they waited for a potential major league opening, it wouldn't take much to juggle it so that they don't have to have him in Vegas long enough to burn an option until the All-Star break. for sure you won't see him in a rehab game before May at the earliest.

Now to the subject at hand.

I will follow the format of my previous post with all the standard caveats. If you haven't read it, what the hell is wrong with you!? As before, my opinion of the potential of the Blue Jays players is reflected in my team preview post, and the same philosophy is applied to the opposing team - that is a reasonable view of what is possible, without being overly optimistic or pessimistic, assuming health. also, one should NOT see these INDIVIDUAL projections as a TEAM projection. some players will exceed my guesses, others will fail them, and some will get hurt. this is a 100% guarantee. It's just impossible to know WHICH will do what.

Catchers: Arencibia v. Molina

Something familiar about this. I want to give due respect to Molina's totally abbe rational career year last year, but let's be realistic. Molina's career OPS when he came to Toronto was .609 and he's going to turn 37 in June. He's never going to get close to last year's numbers again and as a full time (more or less) starter it could get ugly. BIG edge to the Jays here.

First Base: Lind v. Pena

The difficulty here is figuring out which Pena you are dealing with? is it the guy who posted a .732 OPS in Tampa in 2010, or the guy who posted an .819 in 2011 in the NL Central? He's coming up on 34 now and logically on the down-slope of his career. I'm convinced that Lind will be at least his equal this year if not better. But sadly, objectivity forces me to note that it's been longer since Lind was food and give the provisional nod to the Rays.

Second Base: Johnson v. Zobrist

Even I have to admit Zobrist has delivered three of the last four years. Johnson's a nice little player but I have to give the Rays the edge here.

Shortstop: Escobar v. Rodriguez

Escobar is one of the better hitting shortstops in the league, Sean Rodriguez is an all-field no-hit guy. He might lose out to Reid Brignac (remember when he was a top 50 prospect in baseball?) if the latter can pull his act together, but he's been even worse that Rodriguez so far. BIG Edge to the Blue Jays.

Third Base: Lawrie v. Longoria

As you may have noticed, I patterned my projection for Lawrie on the early career of Longoria. I'm not shy about saying I think that he's at least Longo's equal. Youth and inexperience be damned, I rate this a push.

Right Field: Bautista v. Joyce

As nice a hitter as Joyce might be, if maybe a little light for the traditional expectations for RF, he's not close to Bautista at all, nor is he likely to get close in the future. BIG edge for the Blue Jays.

Center Field: Rasmus v. Upton

Lowered expectations seem to be Upton's lot in life. At one time he was always the guy who was just about to turn the corner and be really special - and he might yet, in any given year. But for the last 4 seasons his combined OPS is .744 and it might be time for the Rays to resign themselves to the notion that this is just what he is. Rasmus, while having stumbled last year, does not have that sort of track record yet. One must admit that it's possible either guy could make a run at a .900 OPS this year, based on their tools, I think there's a reasonable likelihood that Rasmus is the more valuable guy in 2012. Small edge to the Blue Jays.

Left Field: Snider v. Jennings

I have to give Jennings his due. No one believes in Snider more than I do, and I love Thames as well, but Jennings SB total last year pro-rates to 50 over a full season, and he'll probably see his OBP tic up some this year too. A sophomore slump is not impossible, but if I'm going to give props to Lawrie I have to be fair here as well. He could easily be the second best hitter (behind Longoria) in this line-up. Edge - potentially large - to the Rays.


On the other hand, things look somewhat better for the Jays here. But not ideal. Luke Scott was awful in 2011, but was that a fluke, or the start of a trend? in the five seasons prior he posted cumulatively an .869 OPS and that's nothing at which to sneeze. I think EE is going to break out and have his best year in the majors, but I can't throw Scott under the bus based on one bad year. i don't think he will return to his previous levels but I have to say, provisionally, edge Rays.

If you are keeping score, that's 4-4 with a push They seem fairly evenly matched on offense.

Comparing lineups (based on above observations):

Escobar v. Jennings - Rays
Johnson v. Upton - push
Bautista v. Longoria - Jays
Lind v. Pena - Rays
Encarnacion v. Zobrist - Rays (slightly)
Rasmus v. Joyce - push
Lawrie v. Scott - Jays
Snider v. Rodriguez - Jays
Arencibia v. Molina - Jays

As with Boston, the depth of the line-up works for Toronto.

Turning to the pitching . . .


Career wise, Price is the guy with the accolades, the glowing reports, the strikeout pitch. But last year he regressed a bit from his excellent 2010, while Romero matched that great season in may ways. Price has more stuff, and if you were forced to place your bets, you'd have to grit your teeth and choose him. But Romero seems to get the very best results from his abilities and that counts for something. This one goes to the Rays but it's a lot closer than it ought to be.


Shields and Morrow sort of set up the opposite equation here. The latter is the guy with the big booming stuff, the former is the guy coming off the great year. But Shield's 2011 was unlike anything he'd done before, and I dare him to do it again. Morrow is younger, has more stuff, and less mileage on his arm. I'll give Morrow the edge going forward.



Cecil is, of course, one of the big stories in Blue Jays camp. Many forget that he matched David price stat for stat through their respective ascensions through the minor leagues (no, Cecil isn't THAT good) and instead focus too heavily on last season. Hellickson looks like the easy call but the thing is, his xFIP in 2011 was higher than Cecil's (4.72 to 4.47). Hellickson pitched a lot worse than his ERA in 2011 and he's primed for a regression. Cecil, by all accounts, is set for his best year yet. By far. Edge to the Rays, but again, they are a lot closer than you think.



Blue Jays fans love Alvarez, rightly so, he's set to have a very nice year and career. but Moore is the best pitching prospect in the game. I can't begin to construct an argument that mitigates that reality. I will not for the record that rookies sometimes stumble, but on paper this is a big edge for the Rays.



The Rays have to be scratching their heads a bit about Davis. He was thought to be a pretty studly prospect as he came up through the minors but the more he's pitched in the majors, the more ordinary he's become. He's still just 26, but at very best he has a similar ceiling to, say, Kyle Drabek. and he's taking some time to show signs of moving towards that ceiling. Like Upton, there may come a time when they have to say - this is all he's going to be. As for McGowan, there's no recent track record to analyze, one has to go completely off scouting which, to be fair, comes mostly out of Jays camp.But the praise level is pretty astonishing, with JP saying he has #1 starter stuff and he's bringing it this spring. I believe he described him as the best pitcher he'd seen in the majors. Obviously if you are going to put a health caveat on anyone, it's McGowan, but i said i was assuming health and with that in mind - Edge Blue Jays.

If one were to note the next guy in line, for the Jays that's likely Kyle Drabek, and for the Rays it would presumably be pulling Jeff Neimann back out of the bullpen.

On the whole, I have to give the Rays the edge on paper. I could see the Blue Jays starters producing a very similar level of production though - both teams have two guys that might break into the elite level in any given year. None of them are sending a BAD starter out there. The Jays have probably somewhat better fallback options, more depth, but the front five tilts towards Tampa for now.


Farnsworth tends to be a tease. Every few years he will be virtually untouchable, then go back to frustrating his team with under-achievement. in 2001 he was magnificent, then went completely off the rails in 2002. in 2005 he was again one of the best at what he did, then he delivered four years worth of ordinary. before pitching above average ball in 2010 and excellent ball in 2011. Has he finally figured it out? or will he go back to being Kyle Farnsworth? What we do know is that he's 36 and has 10 times as many professional innings as Santos. i'll give him the benefit of the doubt and rate this a push, but I know who I'd rather have going forward.


Upon first glance you have to like Peralta, but he's another guy who's going to be 36 on opening day and he was so lightly regarded after the 2010 season that the Nationals non-tendered him. Last year he was pretty much as good as Cordero (no spring chicken himself), and in a harder division. but he doesn't have remotely the track record. Again, i know who i trust more (though there's cause for doubt with both) but I'll be respectful and call it a push here as well.


All the way through his minor league career, McGee graced the Rays Top 10 prospect list. He was a starter until 2011 when the Rays shifted him to relief and the noise was that he was on his way to being a top-shelf closer. if that's still the plan then moving into late inning relief this year would be expected. Here the age factor cuts in the Rays favor, but someone didn't tell Darren Oliver. He's past 40 but he's gotten better for five straight years. At some point, that trend will probably reverse. Until then you have to respect the results, no matter how highly praised McGee is. Showing my customary deference to highly touted youth, i'll call this a push, but that's making some Rays-friendly assumptions.


Frasor has been a rock for the Jays for several seasons now. It's not entirely clear how Neimann translates to relief pitching (if, in fact, they don't find an attractive opportunity to trade him) but we know what Frasor can do and it's good. Edge Blue Jays.



Janssen in a walk over. Again. Rodney has some stuff but he's yet to dominate anyone the way Janssen did in 2011


I am a bit torn. Howell was very good for two years before losing 2010 to injury, and his comback season was pretty ugly. Logically, this year should be better - potentially as good as he was before. By contrast, Villianueva, other than that stretch where he ran out of gas and hurt himself in a minor way, was an excellent pitcher for the Blue Jays. Howell has a track record, Carlos V has health. Call it a push.


Perez was more hittable, Ramos had more free passes. otherwise, taking Perez's work as a reliever, they are quite comparable. Push.

In the bullpen, Janssen is the major edge for Toronto but not enough to offset the difference in the pitching. I'll be ridiculed for saying so but I just don't see a massive talent gap between these two teams. i saw one commentator saying this might be the best Rays team yet, but I don't think it's really all that much better than last years team. I'd venture to say Jennings and Moore might be so very good that they elevate this team, the potential is certainly there, but when you are counting on two rookies/near-rookies, you have unanswered questions. And that's something else they have in common with the Jays. Jennings is to Tampa as Lawrie is to Toronto. Moore is to Tampa as Alvarez is to Toronto (in terms of role on the team). The questions about Lind somewhat apply to Pena. and so forth.

All that said, I think that the safest guess is that the Rays will finished slightly ahead of the Jays, but i also believe that the two of them, and Boston, will run down the stretch together.

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