Fun With Arbitrary End Points

This idea's been knocking around in my head for a couple of weeks or more and I've put it off, reluctant to do the drudge work necessary to parse the stats. But the trade-fever is rising to acquire pitching, almost certainly a starter, and with Mike Wilner's column Monday providing renewed inspiration, I took some time this evening to dig into the idea. What you are about to read is going to be rife with caveats, but that's okay because I'm not trying to be exact here but rather just give an overview of a general idea that you might have sensed but been sure about.

With time perhaps tthe impression has faded for many, but I noted before in this space (about halfway into the season) that there's a distinct difference between the performance of the team over the first 40 games, and thereafter. Coming into Tuesday night's game the team has played 94games which creates some convenient points of reference. Forty games - not mathematically 1/4 of the season but as close as you can get in whole games - followed by 54 games, 1/3 of a season. There's a big difference between the two. Why did I pick that date? If you're a regular reader (hey you two!) you can possibly guess. The 40th game was the one that the Jays surprised team watchers by inserting Todd Redmond into the rotation for one start to give the rest of the rotation a day of rest. It's hard to claim, of course, that this act had any direct impact at all for more than 10 days or so, but nevertheless, the numbers are striking.

Let's also distinguish that I'm not talking about the hitters here. Through 40 games, the Jays averaged 5.25 runs per game, since then it's climbed to 5.33 runs per game. Up, but not enough to point to any sort of trend. And with that, Caveat #1: This is going to be all about what are commonly called Arbitrary End Points (AEP) - primarily that one AEP on May 18. However, it's not quite as useless as that might make it seem because it's a straight "before and after" look at samples of significant size, it's not like saying "if you took out this bit and that bit then..." (although there are two minor points where I notice something by doing that further down). I believe ther is value in noting a "turning point" either for the good or the bad - you just can't get carried away with it. There's also value, in my opinion, in noticing if a player was very good most of the time but had one wee or 10 days or whatever when he went sideways. For example, that whole business about how Marco Estrada sucked last year? Yeah - for about 3 weeks. He got absolutely rocked for a short period, including a huge chunk of the homers he allowed, and outside of that stretch was just the same as he'd been all along. I think noting that was predictive of what we could expect this year.

This entry is about pitching. I'm not going to argue that I know why the breakdown looks like this, or that it's anything other than random in terms of which AEP you might have chosen. But it exists. In the first 40 games, they were 18-22 and since then, coming into the Oakland series, they've gone 29-25, and when you see these numbers you'll be scratching your head that the latter isn't way better.  What you are about to see has great risk of being presented in a confusing way, but hopefully I can organize it reasonably well. There will be two major sets of stats, obviously, separating the Starters from the Bullpen - with only Estrada making this difficult. I'll sort him out though. Another caveat: ERA is a bit of a blunt instrument, there are other stats of the sort that inform xFIP for example, which get more precisely to the quality of pitching, but for an overview like this, ERA will do.





The Jay's starting set has been remarkably stable this year. Three have made every turn of the rotation, Norris gave way to Estrada who's been a rock, and Sanchez is the one injury which triggered a revolving door which has not produced good results. What I've done, then, is charted  the five who held their job on quality as a separate set from those who did not hold on (and Doubront who seems destined to lose out to whomever is acquired). This also allows me to distinguish those who pitched on both sides of the AEP from those who haven't. Before you read further, do be aware I've caught myself in several minor errors already (like failing to remember Doubront had a bullpen appearance) so if you spot an error, don't be stunned (as if...).

First set. The first column of numbers is their ERA through May 18, and the second column is their ERA since.  Then a column with IP and ER before, and one with those after the AEP, and finally a column with IP per start before and one after. Note that Estrada did some quality relief work before moving into the rotation, the stat you see represents only his starts.The bullpen work will come later.


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Name	ERA Before	ERA After	IP ' ER Before	IP ' ER After	IP/G Before	IP/G After
Buehrle	5.36	2.06	47 ' 28	74.1 ' 17	5.88	7.41
Hutchison	6.17	4.52	42.1 ' 29	61.2 ' 31	5.29	5.61
Dickey	5.76	3.95	50 ' 32	70.2 ' 31	6.25	6.42
Estrada	5.52	3.1	14.2 ' 10	69.2 ' 24	4.89	6.33
Sanchez	4.26	2.57	38 ' 18	28 ' 8	5.43	7
Total	5.44	3.28	192 ' 116	304.33 ' 111	5.49	6.48

Now here's a chart for the short-term guys


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Name	ERA Before	ERA After	IP ' ER Before	IP ' ER After	IP/G Before	IP/G After
Copeland		6.46		15.1 ' 11		5.11
Boyd		14.85		6.2 ' 11		3.33
Doubront		4.63		11.2 ' 6		5.83
Norris	3.86		23.1 ' 10		4.67
Total	3.86	8.81	23.1 ' 10	33.66 ' 30	4.67	4.81

And finally, the total for all starters:




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All Starters

5.27

3.79

215.1 ' 126

337.33 ' 142

5.38

6.25

Now, even in the totals it's striking. Over a run and a half down in Starters ERA, almost a full inning better in IP per start. But if you filter out the failure to thrive threesome in Sanchez's spot (7 starts) along with Norris (just to be fair), then the ERA swing is a fat 2.16 down, and the IP per start gets even better. To put these in some context, here's a list of AL teams ranked by starter's ERA on the season. Obviously the comparison is imperfect, since they are not split the same way the Jays' numbers are, but I'm not trying to prove where they rank since May 18, just giving you an idea where these numbers would rank if they'd been doing this all year.

Oakland - 3.00
TB - 3.42
LA - 3.56
Seattle - 3.80
Minnesota - 3.83
Houston - 3.97
Chicago - 4.00
Cleveland - 4.12
Baltimore - 4.22
NY - 4.22
Texas - 4.26
KC - 4.33
Toronto - 4.35
Detroit - 4.52
Boston - 4.84

So they are ranked 13th out of 15 right now, but if they'd done all year what they've done in the past 54 games, they would rank 4th - and if you take just the front five guys over that span they have the second best ERA on the list. Pretty remarkable, yes? One more tidbit on the starters. If you take the moment when their ERA peaked and they started trending downward, you of course come up with different dates for each of the main 5 guys, but it's noticeable how close they are (relative to the 5 day turn through the rotation) to that May 18 AEP.
On May 12 Buehrle peaked at 5.54, he's totaled 2.30 since (less if you factor in his shutting down Oakland tonight but I didn't).
Hutchison peaked on May 3 at 7.47, since then it's been 4.21
Dickey peaked at 5.77 on May 26, since it's been 3.49
Estrada doesn't fit well since his ERA was never again close to what it was after his first start on May 5, it's trended downward with a steady pacesince.
And Sanchez splits exactly with the AEP.


Sane treatment on the bullpen. This time it divides neatly into two groups again, those with 15+ IP (as relievers) who just so happen to all have pitched on both sides of the AEP, and those with less who only pitched on one side of the line. Noticeably, the first group represents the current seven pitchers in the bullpen, plus Todd Redmond who's at the fulcrum of this analysis. The one exception to my methods here is that I failed to distinguish Redmond's start from his relief work, but by the time I realized what I'd done all the charts were finished and I was well into this commentary, and damned if I'm going to go back and adjust all those figures. Just know that the pre-AEP starters figures, collectively, will go up just a bit more, and the pre-AEP bullpen figure for Redmond will too (I know it's weird but Redmond's first two bullpen appearances were so bad that a bad start still pulled it down some, meanwhile the collective bullpen figure in the "before" column will get just a bit better.


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Name	ERA Before	ERA After	IP ' ER Before	IP ' ER After
Osuna	0.86	3.43	21 ' 2	21 ' 8
Schultz		1.85		24.1 ' 5
Hendricks	3.63	2.49	17.1 ' 7	21.2 ' 6
Cecil	3.46	5.29	13 ' 5	17 ' 10
Loup	6.28	4.12	14.1 ' 10	19.2 ' 9
Delebar	1.8	4.26	5 ' 1	19 ' 9
Tepera	4.26	2.19	6.1 ' 3	12.1 ' 3
Redmond	11.88	2.35	8.1 ' 11	8 ' 2
15+ IP	4.11	3.27	85.1 ' 39	143 ' 52

Notice that Osuna actually went up, as did Cecil and Delebar the collective total is still striking. Almost two full runs difference. Speaking of Cecil and Delebar, the latter's second section ERA was a sterling 1.81 until July got here, three recent rough outings ballooned it and puts him on the bubble as a candidate to farm out when Sanchez is activated. Cecil has an even more interesting, to me, story. For one week, June 15-21, he fell apart, giving up 8 ER in 2.1 IP over 3 appearances. Without those his ERA in the second column would be 1.23 and lest we leave him out, if Aaron Loup had called in sick on June 20, his second column figure would be 2.84 so...not going to guess what's up with Delebar because the blow-up is recent, but these guys are not as bad as their results, and that's before you add in Sanchez.

Unlike with the starters, the short-term guys really don't bust up that trend.


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Name	ERA Before	ERA After	IP ' ER Before	IP ' ER After
Francis	6.75		12 ' 9
Castro	4.38		12.1 ' 6
Estrada	0.84		10.2 ' 1
Hynes	6.00		3 ' 2
Albers	3.38		2.2 ' 1
Jenkins	4.50		2 ' 1
Coke		3.38		2.2 ' 1
Doubront		3.86		2.1 ' 1
Rasmussen		0.00		1 ' 0
others >	4.22	3.00	42.2 ' 20	6 ' 2

The thing that jumps out at you here is the IP totals. Over 1 IP per team by a shuttle pitcher in the first set of games, less than 7 IP in 54 games since. That's called stabilizing, folks, and it shows up in the results. Almost a ran and a quarter lower in collective ERA in this group. Here's the bullpen totals:


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Bullpen >

4.15

3.26

128 ' 59

149 ' 54

Almost two full runs better, and not surprising given what the starters did, 3.2 bullpen innings per game in the first split, 2.76 in the second.  Those ERAs look good compared to the league too. The collective bullpen ERA in the last 54 games, if it were for the season, would land the Blue Jays 5th, just ahead of the Yankees.

Finally then, the totals for the whole team, before and after:


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Total >

4.85

3.63

343.1 ' 185

486.1 ' 196

How does that play against the league?  That 3.63 nestles between Baltimore (3.73) and Tampa Bay (3.59) for 6th in the AL and for love of 1/10th of a run, tonight's effort by Buehrle might have put them in second place (#1 is Oakland at 3.35 followed by the Angels at 3.52).  The major point of all this is when you hear broadcasters or journalists say "the Jays have some bad pitching" - they really don't. The HAD some bad pitching, over the first six weeks of the season. Since then they've had perfectly reasonable pitching on the whole.

How then to reconcile this with Wilner's description of how the bullpen has somehow managed to lose games at a higher rate than they should have? If you haven't read it, go do so for context, but the basic idea is that they pitched really well in low leverage outing but sucked in high leverage situations. Wilner reports accurately that the Jays lead the majors with 15 blown saves, so let's start there. But that will have to wait until next time, because sorting that out pre- and post-AEP is too big a chore to begin at 3 AM.

Addindum

After another long session with Baseball Reference while listening to the Jays and A's I'm prepared to say a little something about Wilner's reporting on how much trouble the Blue Jays bullpen has had in high leverage situations. I didn't bother to try and re-create his reporting or be more clever than BR in terms of what qualifies as high-leverage. Rather I just wanted to see it for myself and I needed some sort of measure to quantify what I'd seen. So what I decided was to look at every situation in which a Toronto reliever pitched when the score was within 1 run either way (or tied of course) and how these turned out. I'm not entirely comfortable with the method because if, for example, three pitchers throw 3 innings of relief while tied and the third one give up a homer, the first two actually did their job. But this is more about collective results and the finer the detail, the longer it would take me to parse out.
ETA: Tonight's extra inning loss is a good example. It was both a success and a failure. Osuna gave up the game winner in a tie game, however,4 relievers combined to throw 3 shutout innings while the team was down a run, or tied. The reports will say the bullpen blew the game, but that won't do justice to the good work they did to stay close. That's where those stats Wilner cited work better.

So what I found was that in 34 games so far, such a situation occurred. and the Blue Jays only won 11 of those. In 10 of those games, the bullpen did it's job and four times the Jays lost anyway (situations where they were 1 run down), while 24 times they failed, but in five of those the hitters bailed them out. That's just awful and honestly, it defies reason given the overall quality of the players involved. In reference to my AEP, 12 of these cases occurred during that first 40 games and the bullpen failed in nine of those. Six of those nine were at least partially the fault of Castro or Francis but that's all that can be taken as a "positive" from this period.

Since the AEP, the success/failure record is 7-15 which is some better but still not good, but to introduce another AEP, since June 1 (the win streak started the next day) it's been 6-8 which is more reasonable. Honestly, I'm not really sure what would be considered an acceptable rate in a profile like this so I'm just defaulting mentally to .500 as a point of reference - which means over the last seven weeks they were only one game below where you might reasonably ask them to be.Still, on the season, if you expected a .500 record that would mean that, setting aside the 4 games they were already behind, and the 5 the won anyway, they might have won 6 or 7 more games than they have. If you do the same but disregard the games before the AEP, they might have won 3-4 more since then than they have (again, disregarding the Oakland ongoing series). Four more wins and they would be a game and a half behind the Yankees right now.

Another remarkable aspect of all this: Who among the relievers is considered by everyone to be the single most reliable reliever we have? Osuna right? Yet Osuna has been involved in more of those 24 failures - eight - than any other member of the 'pen (and also involved in six of the successes). Cecil is next with six (4 of the successes), Loup five (4), and Castro four (1)...and on the other side, Delebar was involved in only one of the failures, but in four of the successes. Which brings me to the one big take-away from all this drudgery: You can't just assume that adding any given pitcher will fix the problem because it's a problem that really shouldn't even exist. If your best reliever is involved in more failures than anyone else, and you trust him - as you should! - then how can you say of any pitcher you might add that such events won't happen to him?

This all strikes me as akin to the annual examination of records in 1 run games. You can certainly wise it were better, if it's bad - but if it's bad that doesn't necessarily prove you're doing anything wrong. All you can really do is hope the scales eventually balance.

Well, Sanchez is ...huh?

So, with news breaking this afternoon that Aaron Sanchez will be returning from the DL in a relief role, it's an obvious motivation to speculate like mad. And being as it's me were talking about, I never say in 500 words what I can say in 3,000 so...

First off, Evan noted at BlueJaysPlus, there's really only three basic potential explanations, but I want to dig a bit into the nuances of this and maybe add a 4th by the time I'm done. Kinda.

His first possibility is that the Jays are sold on Felix Doubront. Pretty much no one thinks this is the case, but there's an alternate version of this possibility that I'll get back to. His second possibility is that the Blue Jays have lost confidence in Sanchez as a starter. Again, this is inconceivable so there's no point in lingering long over it right this second. Third, and the assumption that's on everyone's mind, is that there's a trade coming. But don't assume that means it's coming any minute even if it is.

Sanchez will throw again for Buffalo on Tuesday, and , they say, be called up "late in the week" (safe money would be on Friday for the opening of the Seattle series. Meanwhile, the Jays spurned the chance to slid the 5th starter slot back by using the off day tomorrow, so Wednesday at Oakland rather than Saturday at Seattle. In so doing Doubront's next turn would fall on next Monday - also an off day - and who knows if they would hold the pattern and refuse to skip him.  That might depend on Wednesday. Thing is, that next Monday is the 27th, just four days before the deadline. So by staying with Dourbront for now they are really only committing to one more start, against a losing team in a pitcher friendly stadium and...one other thing I'll get back to.

Now, as you might recall, if the Blue Jays decide not to keep Doubront in the majors, they will almost certainly lose him since he has no options left and won't make it through waivers. So if they cut bait now, unless they want to cram him into the 'pen they lose an asset, and he's certainly no guarantee to work out well in the bullpen. On top of that, there's not a lot of flexibility in the rest of the rotation. Buehrle and Dickey are absolute locks (the latter, despite my mockery, has been better than fine for over six weeks now) and Marco Estrada removed whatever doubt anyone may have had about his role by outpitching Chris Archer today. That leaves only Drew Hutchison, who's an ace at home and trash on the road. They may tinker with his turns to get him more home starts (I doubt it) but there's no indication he'll be off to Buffalo or the 'pen anytime soon. So there's that one spot to mess with.


Now consider - let's say the Blue Jays do, in fact, swing a deal for a very-good-to-great SP, and you already put Doubront on waivers in order to let Sanchez start....one game. Maybe two. Then he's off to the 'pen anyway (because he addresses a real need there, as opposed to the net loss of demoting Hutch). That's not really how Alex Anthopoulos rolls. On the other hand, if Doubront starts and pitches well, he might help leverage a trade or be dealt in a smaller deal (don't scoff, look what we paid for Danny Valencia). If he blows up, well, just as easy to waive him 10 days later. If Sanchez got that start and is great, it's harder to ask him to move to the 'pen, if he's rocked, it hurts his confidence which now, based on the run up to his injury, has to be high. Finally, if not trade can be finalized, the gap is short enough they can always ditch Felix on August 1 and give the job back to Sanchez without much issue.


Looking ahead to Sanchez in the bullpen, Gibby said not to expect him in high leverage situations right away (and if you want to keep him available to go back to the rotation, what beter way than a few 2-3 inning outings over the next couple of weeks?) but you know that's the plan. Sanchez circa 2014 setting up Osuna has a distinct whiff of Ward/Henke from where I sit. Throw in Bo, Tepera (who deserves your respect!) and Hendricks in the 6th/7th and you can be selective with Cecil and Loup (who are both better than you think). Not to disrespect Delebar (and I have a hunch the will stockpile Tepera in Buffalo rather than demote Delebar - or go with 8 - when Sanchez is activated) who's no car crash by any means. People can look at whole season stats and moan all they want, that's already a solid 'pen (worrisome only in that there are 3-4 key guys doing it at the major league level for the first time) and a damned respectable one when you add Sanchez. Whatever might be said of that rotation spot, Sanchez will help the 'pen as much as any potential acquisition not named Chapman.

But here's the thing niggling my brain, and maybe it's just because I've been lusting after this guy as a trade target, but there's an interesting confluence of events here.As you know the Jays visit Oakland starting on Tuesday. Who's starting for the A's on Thursday but one Scott Kazmir. Trade candidate. 
Very. Desirable. Trade Candidate.

In my feeble recollection, I'm not aware of very many high profile players dealt just in time to face the team that just traded them. But what if, when the Jays flew home from the coast, Kazmir was on the plane? Or at least, what if Alex was working on making that happen knowing the A's wouldn't close a deal before Friday? Because these are the A's who have used Jesse Chavez as a pretty important SP for a few years now...so what if Alex wants to let Oakland get a first hand look at what Doubront can do in anticipation of offering him in the deal as a non-rookie option to slot into Kazmir's spot?  Don't get me wrong, Felix would have only a small marginal value in the deal but if he makes it easier at all that's a plus. Heck, apart from persuing Kazmir, if the Jays do have to try and squeeze value out of FD after a trade for whomever, Oakland is just the sort of team that might be interested so showcase him.

So I can definitely see an angle here, as much as it worries me Sanchez will be so good that the team will get fuzzy-headed and want to keep him in the 'pen long term. And speaking of the long term, consider this - if the Blue Jays do add a rental starter, potentially 4 out of 5 members of their rotation in October (shaddap) will be pending free agents.  Then follows a winter of hand-wringing about the Blue Jays need to add veteran leadership or whatever, but I'm looking forward to the best 5 out of Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Norris,  Hoffman, Hutchinson, and Boyd filling those slots. I'm not sure I want a lesser guy who brings only 10 years of experience tying up one of those spots. Unless maybe it was Kazmir. ;) Thought for the record, I'd absolutely put a QO on Buehrle and wouldn't be unhappy if he accepted it.  Okay, got it. Rambling now. Anyway, in less than 2 weeks we'll know something.

Monthly Prospect Progress and Stuff (3/5)

I know what you are thinking - didn't you just write far too many words about prospects? Yes, my last entry was indeed a farm related post (mostly) but that was a ranking reflecting adjustments to the off-season list based on over half a season of work in 2015. The monthly isn't so much about ranking but taking note of who's hot, or not, that deserves a mention as well as assorted player movement and such like.

Speaking of - various reports on Tuesday confirmed that, as predicted last week, Jeff Hoffman is moving up to AA and will start for the Fisher Cats on Friday. More on that in a bit. Hoffman is, of course, all tangled up in trade speculation as the deadline approaches in just over two weeks. The debate rages about the balance between giving up the long-term return on blue chip prospects against the games - and potential playoff games - that can be won by acquiring a premium talent with said prospects. On one hand, it's certain the Blue Jays have to make SOME move this month, and more than just a minor deal for a Danny Valencia-type. It boggles the mind how the fan base might react if they stand pat or, worse, fold their tent. But at the same time, every start by RA Dickey that's not ace-level serves as a cautionary tale about what they might have had in Noah Syndergaard. A Sportsnet poll question asked whether you'd give up Jeff Hoffman for Johnny Cueto (who's set to be a free agent at the end of the season. My answer is that unless I intend to get him under contract before he ever hits the market (and with the Jays' 5-Year limit that's not even a pipe-dream) then no, I don't.  Flags fly forever but Cueto alone, as good as he is, doesn't guarantee a flag. Not Norris either though he has more potential to not pan out.

I know it takes value to get value so here's my list of available players with, in my opinion, top trade appeal.
Sean Reid-Foley
Miguel Castro
Richard Ureana
Max Pentacost (value down, can't be centerpiece at this point)
Matt Smoral (ditto, and for the same reason)
Matt Boyd
Alberto Tirado
Clint Hollon
Dawel Lugo (stats aren't much, scouts really like the potential though)
Jario Labourt (impressed on the big stage Sunday)

Not all of these guys are centerpiece types of course, but could, for example, Reid-Foley, Lugo and Labourt get you Matt Latos? Yeah, and it might be an overpay, maybe get them to kick in former Jays prospect Sam Dyson or go for closer AJ Ramos while you're at it. Alex Anthopoulos insisted rental players with no control after this season were his last option, but that's what dominates the SP market and it will take some of his best magic to go get a top-end SP with control.  It might also mean persuading ownership to take on Cole Hamel's contract or whatever part of it the Phillies will not carry (and assuming you can convince him to waive his NTC) and even if you can do that, you get even more complex negotiations depending on the amount of cash changing hands.

Beyond Hamels, there's Tyson Ross in San Diego (yes please!) or maybe Andrew Cashner aaaand...who? Maybe Mike Fiers, but with 4 years control he shouldn't be on the market. Interestingly, Cashner has an xFIP of 3.70 and our own Drew Hutchinson has an xFIP of 3.78 - if we could get the on field results to match that figure in the second half it would make a big ol' difference. And yes, as I mentioned last week, if someone like the Reds looked at that figure and decided it represented the true Drew and accounted him that trade value, yes, I'd put him in the deal because of all our young pitching assets, he's burned the most control and has the lowest ceiling.


Now, about those minor leagues...

There's not a lot of news out of Buffalo in terms of prospecting. The continued tease that is Daniel Norris continues, for the second time he's been one-more-good-start from getting the call and had the ball bounce away from him. Alex defended his July 1 outing, pointing out the weather led to a lot of bad breaks - but Sunday's game was ugly ever how you parse it. On the offensive side, 3B/1B Matt Hague continues to pound on the door to a crowded room, but there's also Sean Ochinko. The back-up catcher, in 83 AB over 23 GP between May 19 and July 8 hit .386 with a .961 OPS. He'd be starting if the Jays didn't need Josh Thole's bat to stay active (as if...)

In New Hampshire, it's all about Dalton Pompey until the Blue Jays decide he's safe to move up. I'm wondering how much more Ezequiel Carrera they can deal with myself. Also have to take notice of reliever Danny Barnes who's proven himself worthy of promotion if they can find room among the old-timers.

Looking at Dunedin there's the remarkable Alford and Tellez show though it's only 17 games, there's no reason to think either is a SS illusion in terms of talent. The other story offensively is that Mitch Nay, who'd begun to make a few folks invoke then name "Ahrens" finally woke up on June 25 and has been mostly on fire since. He's hit .393 over those 61 at bats - and drawn 7 walks - while running up a .981 OPS, but he didn't hit a single homer over that hot stretch and that's still something the team is looking for. There's not to much on the pitching side to note that hasn't already been said in the previous column, but I'll tip my metaphorical cap to unheralded to Jeremy Gebryszwski who's put up an ERA of 2.48 over his last five appearances with 23 K's against 4 walks in 29 innings. Fact is, the 2011 2nd round pick has only had 2 truly bad starts this year, without those his ERA is 2.80 with good supporting numbers. He's probably as good as most of the guys who've gotten starts in New Hampshire.

In the Lansing rotation, the top remaining performer is Shane Dawson who won't be back until the men's baseball team at the Pan-Am games wraps up, almost certainly on July 19. He stands as the most obvious candidate to be promoted to Dunedin to take over Jeff Hoffman's vacated slot. Next in line is Jesus Tinoco, who's quietly avoided the control issues that hit some of the other young Latin players in the system when they got to full season ball. If there's a guy that a lot of folks are sleeping on on the full season teams, it's Tinoco. Still, the Jays may prefer to move him a bit slower and wait a few more weeks to move him up. He's only 20. There are 3 or 4 relievers worthy of promotion here too. On offense, it's all about Ryan McBroom but with Tellez and Dean both sucking up AB in Dunedin, there's nowhere for him to go.

In Vancouver, if the chain reaction effect takes Dawson to Dunedin the next link in the chain is Clinton Hollon who's shown himself capable of stepping up to Lansing. I'd be shocked if he wasn't there before August (unless he's part of a trade). 2015 draftee Jon Harris will likely move too at some point but probably not for another month or so. Other than those two, and recovering Ryan Borucki, there's not much to talk about at this level. Oh, and recently drafted RP Travis Bergen is off to a hot start.

Continuing the theme of chain-reaction promotions, my pick for Bluefield is Juliandry Higuera. He's been by far the best pitcher for the Appy League team and in the discussion for best in the league. CF Rodrigo Orzoco is hitting well enough to get noticed too, head and shoulders betterthan the other full-time guys.

Finally in the GCL, the last link in the chain is the 2015 draftee that has opened everyone's eyes, Jose Espada. If my chain-promotion theory is right he's the clear choice to move up. Offensively, 33rd rounder Kalik May is lapping the field but recently signed steal Reggie Pruitt hasn't missed a beat and either or both are worthy of consideration to move up.I expect both in Bluefield in short order.

Mid-Season(ish) Prospect Ranking & Stuff

So. Back to .500 - le sigh. They will be more than a little fortunate to not fall below by the time the sun sets on Sunday. 
 Aaaaaanyway...

The stuff I mentioned in the title being some interesting correlation of pitching news this week. Both Daniel Norris and Jeff Hoffman pitched on Tuesday night and pitched well, more on both of them when I get to the list. Felix Dourbront pitched well for the Jays, but we've seen the "kick-ass in your first game" phenomena twice before so we need to see what he does in KC on Sunday to begin to get a read. Meanwhile, Alex Sanchez made his first rehab outing in the GCL hours before those other games and threw 2 innings. Alex Anthopoulos was on the radio the next day and reported no difficulties. He said Alex would pitch again on three days rest and then go on a regular starter's 5th day rotation.  While some may speculate that he might not need a long re-hab, I'm sure he'll get one and here's why.

There's only one start left in his turn before the break which obviously he's not going to make, and after that the team doesn't absolutely have to have a fifth starter until July 25 which is right at the end of the 20 days he's allowed to stay on re-hab assignment. He'll have 4 starts, if all goes well, under his belt by then but that day wouldn't fall on his turn. Which means he can either go on the 26th at Seattle, bumping Estrada (at least temporarily) or he can skip the long plane ride  - which only makes sense given the nature of his injury - and start on the 28th in Philadelphia. The answer seems obvious. Technically it might be a day or two after that depending on hos the team wants to sort out the rest schedule for the other four but you get the idea.   Of course, other roster machinations flow from this too. No later than that point they'll need a read on Doubront who'll surely be lost if they try to demote him. The trade picture will be much clearer, the endurance of Marco Estrada vs. his value in the 'pen vs. the progress of Daniel Norris will have more data. Plus two of Hutchinson's next three are on the road which...yeah...about that.

Drew Hutchinson has insane splits this year in just about every way you can split stats and one of those is that he's aces at home, and an abomination on the road. There is, in my opinion, a very real possibility that if he doesn't pitch in a most excellent fashion, consistently, and quick, he could find himself in Buffalo (or traded if anyone will count him as valuable) before July is done.  And despite the respectable FIP/xFIP numbers (he leads Blue Jays starters in both), it would be hard to object.
(I wrote that in my first draft before Wednesday's start against the punchless White Sox and...no progress on the bottom line, though the rain contributed to a couple of runs that might not otherwise have scored so maybe he gets a mulligan from the F.O.)

The real problem with the rotation is Dickey but whatchagonnado? (I'm aware he did well against the Sox but the peripheral trend is very troubling as others have noted)

Anyway, on to the rankings.

There is more witchcraft that science to someone like me, who is neither a trained scout nor at the games, ranking prospects in the best of times. I base my lists on what I read elsewhere and hold the conceit that possibly the way that I integrate that stream of info will produce something that maybe passes along to you something you didn't already know from having read all the same sources yourself - along with an ego-stroking opinion of my own...opinions. But another big part of that sauce is the stats and scouting the minors via stats can be a fool's errand because you don't know whether the team has a player purposely working on some task rather than striving for the best statistical bottom line. Worse, the short-season teams have only been playing for 3 weeks or less.Which means the potential for sample-size error is too great to even do that (not that I don't occasionally overlook that principle). In short, I do this mostly because I like making lists and I like it when on occasion I'm the first one you heard pimping a particular guy, not to be authoritative.

The list is 30 names, with sporadic commentary, and a handful of names to watch at the end.

1. Jeff Hoffman (RHP) - with all due respect to #2, this is the guy who was under consideration for 1:1 with how he'd recover his stuff and I'm satisfied that answer is positive. I'm expecting that after Sunday's game, he's likely done in Dunedin. The story all along has been that he'd move fairly quickly and the mid-season break seems a natural time to take the next step.
2. Daniel Norris (LHP) - Had possibly his best AAA game this year on Tuesday, and has been under control more often than not for 7 starts now. Will surely get at least two more turns and needs to keep his focus while he waits for roster maneuverings to play out over the rest of the month.
3. Dalton Pompey (CF) - Killing it in AA, at some point he'll get kicked back to Buffalo for another test there. With Pillar's recent success the Jays won't feel rushed, unless Saunders has another setback and which...has anyone heard anything new on him? Maybe I assume too much.
4. Anthony Alford (CF) - seemingly the more he's challenged, the better he gets. At this point I wouldn't even be mildly shocked if he were a September call up next year. If not before.
5. Vlad Guerrero, Jr (OF) - Maybe I'm running high on him here, particularly given he lacks some of his dad's defensive promise, but I'm giddy on him.
6. Miguel Castro (RHP) - there's maybe a little hiccup at Buffalo for some reason, possibly a self-imposed pressure thing, possibly it's a BABiP thing I'm unaware of, but  there's still so much to love here. I'm rooting for him to do well either to be a key component of the upcoming trade, or to show enough in the major league 'pen to give the Jays the option to work Osuna as a rotation candidate next Spring.
7. Sean Reid-Foley (RHP) - Another guy who's become a serious potential trade chip. He's still a bit wild, but for a 19 year old high school pitcher drafted last June, it's hard to ask for more progress. If he's still in the system on August 1, look for the Jays to slow him down until he refines his walk rate a bit.
8. Max Pentecost (C) - been a while since we had a report but barring a setback, he should be close to getting back into real games.
9. Richard Urena (SS) - Unexpected power surge in Lansing joined a solid average and sterling defense, but the BB/K ratio shows there's still work to do. Promotion to Dunedin as much about Lugo's struggles needing relief as Urena forcing their hand.  Still, he's in the Toip 10 for a reason.
10. Jon Harris (RHP) - he's no Hoffman but he was a steal where he was drafted and he was described as a polished guy who'd move fast.
11. Rowdy Tellez (1B) - I've been the high one on this guy from day one (and no it has almost nothing to do with his being named "Rowdy"). He was having trouble getting his doubles over the fence over his last month in Lansing but the Jays saw reason to promote him and he's proven that wise so far.
12. DJ Davis (CF) - OTOH, I punished him hard for his abysmal 2014 but he's turned it around nicely this year. He still needs a lot more polish but you can at least see what the Jays were thinking now.
13. Matt Smoral (LHP) - clinging to this spot more for lack of others blowing by him than anything. In danger of having injuries knock him out of the top 20. Needs to get, and stay, on the field.
14. Matt Boyd (LHP) - I had him at 28 coming into the season, a noticeable and unexpected uptick in velocity, and the results that followed, shoved him towards the top. Viable trade candidate. If he handles AAA as he did AA, might climb another couple of spots by season's end.
15. Alberto Tirado (RHP) - wilder, still, than you'd like, particularly since the team resolved to let him pitch in relief all year in order to make some progress. Hard to hit stuff, but needs fewer walks.
16. Clint Hollon (RHP) - like Hoffman, recovering from TJS, he started the year with Vancouver's season opener and has been well ahead of league hitters. My guess is that when Hoffman moves up and another Lansing starter goes to Dunedin (there are two solid candidates) that Hollon is Lansing bound after his start upcoming on Monday.
17. Dawel Lugo (SS) - He wasn't an accomplished hitter in Lansing last year, but pressure from Urena and the team's apparent impression with his tools pushed him up to Dunedin to start this season. That didn't work out and he pretty completely failed the challenge. Scouts still report the potential is there but the team is clearly going to have to go a lot slower with him.
18. Jario Labourt (LHP) - Control issues continue to plague the big lefty. The Jays thought he could handle Dunedin coming out of Spring but the hits are up, the strikeouts are down and the walks are intolerably high. in all but 2 of his first 12 games it appeared he had made a step forward on that issue, but over his last 5 starts the wheels really came off. First the walks went back up and then, while he corralled that he started getting hit around. He's said to be a hard worker and good student so possibly he can find the handle again soon. But he'll need some consistency.
19. Mitch Nay (3B) - he's trying the patience of a lot of people at this point. Jays people said earlier in the year that they had him working on some things and they were confident his power would come. Well it ain't came yet. He homered in back-to-back games May 17-18, and only 2 times since. He's only just not got his batting average to .250 for the first time this year, and it took a torrid 15 for 31 streak over his last eight games to do that.
20. Lane Thomas (2B) - can field several positions, they are using him exclusively at 2B so far, and while he's off to a slow start the SS factor keeps me from worrying.

21. Jesus Tinoco (RHP) - Doing all you'd want a 20 year old Latin pitcher to do in A ball. On his way up.
22. Dwight Smith, Jr. (LF) - really very ordinary season and he didn't have a big margin with me.
23. Matt Dean (1B) - Like Nay, he's shown less power than he needs to if he's o be highly regarded.
24. Brady Singer (RHP) - the second player drafted by the Jays in 2015 remains unsigned, though everyone says he will.
25. Nick Wells (LHP) - 3rd round pick from 2014, still in short-season ball.
26. Connor Greene (RHP) - one of the "punt" picks in 2013, just before Kendell Graveman, recently earned a mid-season promotion to Dunedin.
27. Justin Maese (RHP) - this years 3rd rounder, just assigned to the GCL last week.
28. Carl Wise (3B) - waited on his Visa at Bluefield before moving up to the VanCans. Shows they consider the 4th rounder from this year fairly polished.
29. Shane Dawson (LHP) - Owned the Midwest league for much of this year, worthy of promotion but something's going on - he missed time without public explanation lately.[Edit: Per Mike Wilner, Jeff Francis in Buffalo was placed on the "Temporarily Inactive List" in order to play for Team Canada - one may easily assume that's what is going on with Dawson]
30. Roemon Fields (CF) - Tim Raines says he's the best fielding and running CF in the system. He's probably always going to be a fringy hitter but he impressed them enough in Dunedin to get the promotion to AA when Alford moved up to High-A. In a tiny sample he's off to a hot start with the bat at his new level.

Here are some other names from further down my list that I'm keeping a particular eye on.

Ryan Broucki and Tom Robson, two SP coming off injury who are considered legitimate prospects
Danny Jansen, catcher, was considered one to watch out of spring, before he started slow and then got hurt - no idea on the timetable for a return.
John Stilson - like Smoral, he needs to stay healthy, and maybe has even less chance of doing so.
Reggie Pruitt - the draftee they supposedly couldn't sign and did
Danny Barnes - you don't usually pay too much attention to effective minor league relievers but I have a hunch about this guy.
Juliandry Higurea - not considered a big win when he was signed as an IFA but in the early going at Bluefield he's been excellent, and was so before that in the DSL. Plus, I have it in my head he's Teddy Higuera's kid (I can't confirm that - need to get JSG to ask the Blefield broadcaster about that sometime. Teddy was a favorite of mine back in the day.

Why do these things always get so LONG? At least that explains why it takes me three days to finish one.

Notes of Interest

While I prepare to update my top prospect list at mid-season (technically not mid-season for the prospects - that was a couple of weeks ago - but I tend to wait until after the July 2 international signing date passes) hopefully this weekend, and the 3/5 Farm Report (before the ASB) there are some news and notes items I wanted to throw out, some of them particularly since a couple of the bloggers who usually provide regular updates are gallivanting around Europe somewhere.

Item: Shi Davidi reports AA went to Buffalo to watch Daniel Norris tonight, given that the lefty is under consideration for a spot start in Chicago on July 8. Turns out Norris didn't (likely) impress the boss, giving up six runs, four earned, in 7 IP - more tellingly, AA commented to the press that when Norris was on, he'd strike out a batter an inning and not work so hard to paint corners and get ground balls - even if it meant walking some. Apparently no one told Norris. He walked only 2, which is excellent for him...but only struck out one.  No word on what Alex thought of what he saw yet, often the stat line doesn't tell the story. Norris may yet get that call.

Item: in the same scrum AA spoke optimistically of the potential to get Miguel Castro back to the bigs.He's looked outstanding so far in Dunedin but in only two appearances. Shi implied (from AA or his own sources is uncertain) that Castro was "due for a promotion soon" to either AA or AAA. Alex suggested that adding internal reinforcements would allow him to focus trade efforts on the rotation.

Item: speaking of said rotation, a update on a figure I've mentioned before. In their first 40 games (18-22, .450) the Blue Jays allowed 196 runs - 4.9 per game. In the 40 games since, they've allowed 145 - 3.625 per game. For comparison purposes, the second best pitching staff in the AL, the Tampa Bay Rays, have allowed 3.6 runs per game on the season.

Item: On Thursday we will learn, presumably, if we were informed correctly that Vlad Guerrero Jr. (i.e. VGJ) will become a member of the Jays organization, and whether they will be left with any money to sign anyone else (or, indeed, forfeit future opportunities). There's a reason I waited on that list.

Item: Justin Smoak might actually be pretty darn good. After today's two homer effort his slash lines are up to .261/.336/.51/.849 which, with all due respect, John Gibbons might want to reconsider the Navarro love-fest? Since coming off the DL Navarro is putting up an OPS of .653 - I'm just sayin' (love ya Gibby!)

Item: speaking of maybe being good, Kevin Pillar finishes June hitting .380/.394/.550/.944 which, yeah, it's just a month but it sure makes up for May (speaking of which, his bad month was actually a bad 18 games in 19 days. His current hot run actually started on May 27).

Item: Mark Buehrle's ERA for June - 1.67

Item: Jeff Hoffman goes again tomorrow for Dunedin coming off his best pro outing on Saturday (five shutout innings, 3 base-runners and six strikeouts). His turn comes up twice more after that before the AAA/AA All-Star break. I muse about the possibility (likelihood?) he'll get moved up to AA at that point.

Item: Anthony Alford and Rowdy Tellez - co-owners of the FSL (for a week).

Item: Remember after the draft I told you that CF Reggie Pruitt was the lower round pick to dream on - IF he signed which many predicted the Vandy-commit wouldn't? Yeah. He kinda DID! AA scores again, giving a guy some ranked among the top 200 potential picks (translating to a top 6-7 round guy) who was snagged in the 24th round a $500k bonus. His skill set is reminiscent of Anthony Gose (if perhaps not quite grading out as high) with speed being his best tool (rated as high as 70 by some scouts). He's said to have a swing that needs a lot of work and the extent to which they can successfully adjust it will say a lot about how he moves up the prospect chart. He'll start in the GCL or maybe Bluefield and prospect watchers shouldn't get down on him if he doesn't hit much this year.


Item: As of this writing, the Blue Jays stand tied for the second wild card spot, and 1 game out of first place in the AL East. Which is kinda awesome given the early pitching worries.

Salient Points

A stream of points which I hope to be able to ultimately order into something like a sensible narrative-

In today's game, the bullpen pitched 6.2 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 6  before Cecil entered the game. The Jays would have happily taken such a performance from any of their SP. This was a one-inning issue, not a "whole bullpen sucks!" issue;

As of June 6, Brett Ceci, today's villain, l had a 2.65 ERA, had allowed runs in only 3 out of 20 appearances, and multiple runs only once. Only twice in 20 appearances did runs charged to Cecil contribute to a loss.Since June 10 he's been a mess, but it's unlikely to be an unfixable issue. Not irrelevant - he's given up runs in five of his last six outings, the Jays won 3 of those 5;

Yesterday's bad guy Aaron Loup's ERA from May 19 (the pitching turned around, you will recall, after the May 18 Redmond start) through June 19: 0.79 and threw 11.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 12 k and a single earned run. Four times this year he blew up real good, but before Saturday it had been a full month since the last one. His xFIP for the whole season is 2.94;

Is anyone dissatisfied with the work of Osuna, Hendricks, or Delebar? No? Good. Because you shouldn't be. You can add Tepera to that also, despite the mysterious demotion today, though he's been getting hardly any use, he's not been part of the problem. He had his only bad outing on May 18 (in a game the Jays won);

That takes us through the 6 relievers with the most innings. Schultz has started out pretty good but the sample is too small yet.

The Blue Jays have lost 12 games since May 18, 4 of those are on the SP (3 of those four the team scored 2 runs or less). Of the other 8,  3 were in the 7th, one in the 8th, 2 in the 9th, and 2 in extras.
2 on Cecil, 2 Loup, and 2 Osuna, giving up their own runs, and two on inherited runners (one Delebar, one Osuna). So in the last month, Osuna - whom no one doubts, nor should - has let more get away than either Cecil or Loup.

Of the Jays relievers who've pitched in 2015 who were not on the roster at the start of play on today, June 21, the last time any of them pitched in a major league game was May 16. The collective ERA of the Jays bullpen this year is 3.56 (8th in the league). Take away the collective stats of the six players who haven't been here in over a month, and that falls to 2.88 - which would be 4th in the league. I realize that all teams have poor pitchers on the shuttle, but for one comparison, it's better than the collective ERA of the Yankees (4th best team bullpen ERA in the AL) 7 most used relievers.

Point here being that since the pitching turned around, the six busiest Jays relievers have been fine, outside of Cecil's last 10 days which is most likely a blip. The thing is, you need at least 7 good ones and the plug-ins to not be awful.   So the lesson from that is that they either they need to find another reliable guy for the middle innings, or they need a titular closer in order to push Cecil back into more targeted match-ups. If the report about K-Rod was accurate, and assuming he's available, that would be an ideal addition at the right price. Put another way, the bullpen isn't a disaster at all, though it could use a select acquisition.

As for the starters, while their collective ERA for the season is 4.42, 14th in the AL - since May 18 (without Copeland) it's 3.47 which would rank 3rd.  Again, I understand the nature of Arbitrary End Points and as flaky as they are, unless I apply the same AEP to the other teams, their value is further reduced...BUT it is also a valid principle that more recent data is better than older data.  Clearly the rotation is thin, as Sanchez's injury exposed (barring the possibility that someone other than Copeland ends up being a competent 6th starter). But as long as the front five is healthy and pitching as they have for the most recent month+, they are certainly good enough to support the hitting.

The takeaway then is that if - and it's a not insignificant "if" - the most recent data is the real talent level (and it's far more likely to be than the mess than was the first quarter-season) then the pitching staff is not BAD, just thin. The lesson from that, for the starters, is that they don't need a Scott Kazmir (check his road splits) or Aaron Harrang at a too-expensive price. They need to either add a true ace, like Cueto, or be confident that Doubront, Norris, Boyd etc can fill the need when called upon - or find someone who can.

I suggest some deep breaths for the more panicky fans. 

*****
Three players demoted today - not sure why Tepera was one of them - no word on the promotions byut Travis will surely be one. They can push back the open rotation spot to June 30 so they will likely recall a reliever there and then switch them out for the starter for that game. Figure the other guy will be a reliever too. Rasmussen deserves a shot, the other (temporary relief call-up) guy could be almost anyone that's on the 40 man roster.
Who starts on June 30 should prove interesting. The reporters say the team speaks of Sanchez being back "in a few weeks" partly based on the assumed need for one or more rehab starts. The thing they aren't saying is that it's only 3 weeks until the ASB. It's safe then to speculate Sanchez won't be back until after, barring a wonderful report tomorrow.   IF that's an accurate assumption, then there's at least 3 turns, beginning with that 6/30 start, for the unknown starter. There exists only three reasonable possibilities:

1. Give Norris a spin. He hasn't earned it by his work in Buffalo but a 3 start trial will either motivate him to step up or to press. Which would be valuable information on sevberal levels;
2. Go with Felix Doubront who's earned a look but who would need to be carried all season, traded, or lost on waiver claim when they were done with him. Such a valuable (presumably) insurance policy might be too valuable to lose for the marginal gain of three starts. Something to watch: While Doubront's next rotation turn is on Friday, that's going with 5 days rest because of an off-day. tomorrow. If the Jays flip he and Matt Boyd around, so that FD starts on Thursday, that would line Doubront up with the open major league turn and be a strong indication he was the choice;
3. Alex pulls off a trade in the coming week for a starting pitcher that would slot in - and who can predict his trades?

Also Dickey is due back tomorrow but if Travis is joining the team, it seems likely Kawasaki goes back to clear his spot.


*****
Also, if you somehow missed it - Anthony Alford just moved up to Dunedin.

The Subject at Hand

So the topic du'jour concerning the Blue Jays is, of course, pitching acquisitions, notably starting pitching. Hardly a day goes by without a fresh article parsing stats, some more relevantly than others, but (almost) all coming to the same conclusion: the Jays are obliged to go out and trade for a better starter than the ones they have. While I'm all for upgrades, there's one analysis I haven't seen (not that I am ANNNNNYthing like an analyst) and that's the split BR and AR (Before Redmond and After Redmond).

If you recall,  on May 18, in the 40th game of the season, the Blue Jays elected to push back the rotation an extra day and give Todd Redmond a spot start. Now, I don't pretend to have any insight into what that one extra day off did for them - I'm skeptical it was just a matter of rest. The last previous off day was only 10 days previous after all. But what do I know? Anyway, it's been 30 days since then, 27 games which is not a giant sample, but it's 1/6th of a season. What ca we learn from looking at this split?

First. as a team, the Jays gave up 4.9 runs per game through that game, and 3.55 runs per game since.

Second, the five primary starters in the 30 days since looks like this (ERA/FIP/xFIP) per Fangraphs:

Hutch - 5.16 / 4.39 / 3.56
Sanchez - 2.57 / 4.61 / 3.70
Dickey - 4.55 / 4.43 / 3.88
Buehrle - 2.35 / 3.78 / 4.33
Estrada - 4.78 -/3.86 / 4.51

Which looking down that last column, that's not embarrassing IMO. 27 game sample though it is.

Three Jays in the top 60, NO Yankees (53 fewer runs on the season than the Jays) and ONE Royal (77 fewer) in the top 60 - there's 2 Royals and one Yankee ranked higher by xFIP than Estrada

Again, sample size but...yeah, it's not nothing, right?

Other thoughts:
As Stoeten  observed in his take on the subject, an acquired pitcher has to take a slot from one of those guys. The easy answer, of course, Estrada goes back to the bullpen, deserved or not. But as a mental exercise, what are the other options? The main point of Stoeten's comments was whether or not Drew Hutchinson has the cache to front a trade for an upgrade. Notwithstanding a lot of folks thought he was going to take a big step up this season and be a key piece of the rotation, the results have been mixed enough to make one worry about counting on him, and equally worried about trading him. One big factor is that  Hutch's home/road ERA split is insane(2.38 / 9.46). I don't know how to combine splits, but I'd be interested in seeing how the xFIP lines up with that. I would not be at all surprised to find that the scouts see more value in him than the ERA suggests. And putting the guy with the most service time among the young starters (and arguably the least pure-talent of the bunch) at the front of a trade package would be not-crazy.
If I'm wrong, he DOES have that option if things go further south.

There is also, of course, the factor of how much money the Jays will  be willing to take on. Here's a thought: what if you simply asked the team you deal with to take Dickey/Thole back in the transaction? Let's say that you make a monster deal for Cueto & Chapman at the mid-point of the season. Include Dickey/Thole in the return package and the net increase in salary for the Jays is 2.15 million.
Of course if you do that you can't include Hutch, and god knows what it would cost in prospects to get those two - but you get the idea.

Still, if Sanchez comes back strong and this trend holds, maybe you don't need a deal. I admit there's a little part of me that would like to see the in-house crew take them to a playoff position and beyond, just so I could play Nelson to those folks who insist the current crew isn't good enough to make it.

Monthly Prospect Progress and Assorted MLB Stuff: 2 of 5

This is a lot more fun, ain't it? On Monday, May 18 I wrote about potential ways to get the rotation right, but one of the things that never crossed my mind was a spot-start by Todd Redmond. But that's what they Jays choose to do that very day. Beginning after that game the Jays have allowed an average of 3.33 runs per game before Hutchinson blew up real good last night (better starting leads to better relief work in the aggregate). Through that game that figure was 4.9 so what changed was obvious. By sad coincidence the offense went cold (mostly due to injury - remember some of those line-ups?) for a couple of weeks - in the 14 days after Redmond's start they went 5-8, scoring 3 runs or less 7 times, accounting for all but one of those loses. Over that span, even while scoring big in the wins most nights, they averaged a full run less per game than they have over the whole season, which undermined the resurrection of the pitching.

Point being, their biggest problem 26 days ago hasn't bee a problem since (last night notwithstanding).

In other news this week, there was some sort of draft going on? I won't presume to be a resource when there are so many excellent legit resources out there but briefly, We all know the world loves the Jon Harris pick. Harris just signed his contract, which is great for bith he and the Jays - I'm predicting he's going to open the season in Vancouver.  Though he may spend no more than a month there (depending on movement above him) if he preforms well. Not as many deep reports on Round 2 pick Brady Singer, a 6'5" RH high schooler who's a sort of helium pick which reminds me of how the Jays scored Noah Syndergaard. Round 3 brought another pick Kieth Law and others loved in lightly scouted (due to location) RHP Justin Maese. If you want a late round sleeper to watch, I'm going to go with 24th rounder Reggie Pruitt, a blazing CF that MLB.com reports was considered a top-3-rounds talent coming into his senior year. IF he signs of course - there's a reason he dropped this far. With little wiggle room in the pool, Alex would have to work a miracle to land him. Another name some are pointing to is Chandler Eden.

 Turning to the minors, before I get more specific on individual players, this year's Lansing Lugnuts are a offensive juggernaut.  In 2012 they got to watch Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, and Desclafini in the same rotation and now this. The fascinating Anthony Alford, resurgent DJ Davis, blossoming Richard Urena, and slugger Rowdy Tellez in the same line-up, along with underdog hero Tim Locastro, unheralded Ryan McBroom and excellent work from a few Dunedin imports combine to leave opposing pitchers little recourse.
On top of that, every pitcher in the starting rotation is a legitimate prospect. You can't compare it man for man to the 2012 rotation but there's no filler. Any Jays fans within travel distance really ought to seize the chance before some of these guys start getting promoted.

This 1/5 report is a few days late so it's actually for 36 days instead of 30 - sue me. ;)

Starting Pitchers

Jeff Hoffman (Dunedin) - Five starts in now and you can see the progress from week to week.  There were a lot more hits in his first two appearances (18 in 9.1 IP) than his next two (4 in 9 IP) and more importantly, 8 runs in the first two combined, zero runs in the next two.On Thursday he pitched 4 scoreless with only two hits before getting touched up for 3 more (and 3 runs) in the process of getting two out in the fifth.  His ground-out rate is steadily climbing too. It's early but signs are positive.Increased endurance will come as he keeps pitching.

Matt Boyd (New Hampshire, Buffalo) - Has absolutely mastered AA, I'm mystified that the Blue Jays haven't found a way to get him to AAA until today. Yes, he was promoted today and starts for the Bisons tomorrow. I still don't know which  Buffalo pitcher will lose his turn, but Canadian Andrew Albers seems a likely candidate to pitch for Team Canada in the Pan Am games, possibly that's playing into it somehow. Some observers suggest Boyd's abilities are not necessarily as good as his stats suggest, so AAA might serve as a correction. Still, it's hard to not be impressed by a 0.77 WHIP, a 1.10 ERA, and a 3.89 K/BB ratio.

Daniel Norris (Buffalo) - In 7 AAA starts, only once has he not walked at least 3 batters. The Blue Jays are NOT going to give him another chance in the majors soon as long as he's doing that. Likely it's some mechanical issue but they will want to see it fixed.

Jario Labourt (Dunedin) - On the day I wrote the last of these monthly reports, Labourt walked 4 in a a 2 inning (plus a batter) start in which he apparently hit his pitch limit (he hadn't given up a run or a hit). At that point he had 15 walks and 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings pitched and carried a 4.60 ERA through 5 starts. Since that game, he has had six more starts, totaling 30.2 IP, 12 BB, 29 k and a 2.64 ERA. I'm going to venture he's figured something out. He's probably not going to move up before Hoffman does, unless the first rounder suffers a serious reversal, but it wouldn't be shocking if he spent some of the second half in AA. Particularly if there's pressure from Lansing for an opening.
He pitched the back end of a double-header in Dunedin tonight and, naturally spit all over my comments on his newfound control. (this is what happens when you take too long to finish a post)

Scott Copeland (Buffalo) - proved against the Marlins that he's not to be taken lightly. In Buffalo he's given up more than 2 runs only once and has an insane ground ball rate. He has a future in the Blue Jays pen if things break right on the depth chart.

Felix Dourbront (Buffalo) - Had an ERA of 1.00 over his first 5 starts for Buffalo. There may come a time when an opt-out decision has to be made (I don't know if his contract with the Jays includes one, but they often do for major league veterans signed to minor league deals). His secondary numbers all support the idea that he's pitching well (unlike Randy Wolf).

and the Lansing Crew-
Sean Reid-Foley - He was, like Hoffman, a 2014 draftee (2nd round) but out of high school. So a full season assignment was aggressive. How's he doing? How does a 13.83 K/9 rate grab you? He walks way too many, still, but he's hard to hit and it may be that he is dealing with the same problem Sanchez had - too much movement on the fastball to try throwing it to the corners. I have not heard that, I'm just speculating. Whatever it is, if he gets it under control (and isn't traded in the mean time) then his name will be another on everyone's lips.

Shane Dawson - On the day I wrote my last update, Dawson had his first setback of the year. In his first start in June he had another. Outside those two he's been near magical. He's a Buehrle type, and he'll be challenged by the time he hits AA but he will surely get the chance at this rate. Coincidentally, John Lott has an interesting piece this week about Dawson and the muscle missing in his throwing shoulder.

Chase DeJong -  in two games that coincidentally bookended my last update post, DeJong allowed 12 runs in 11.2 innings and I was wavering on whether or not he was sliding off the prospect list (not that he was super-highly regarded anyway, but he was in the back end of a few Top 20 lists and I had him at #26). In 6 starts since he's put up a 2.26 ERA and that includes allowing five earned runs in one of those.  Also it's worth noting that he has either 1, or 0 walks in 9 of 13 appearances and a respectable 7.75 K/9 ratio and a 4.47 K/BB rate.

Conner Greene - under the radar RH just needs to find consistency. He has just over 1 k per IP and a nice K/BB ratio. Over three games (May 3-14) he got knocked around, giving up a collective 11 runs over 11.1 IP (15 H, 6 BB, 7 K) - outside that run he's only had two bad starts. In his other 6 starts he's given up a mere six runs. There might be something here.

Jesus Tinoco - A Venezuelan bonus baby that hasn't gotten as much press as some other Latin signings, Tinoco is second only to Reid-Foley in talent in this rotation. Tonight's game was his peak so far, but it didn't look that way to start. The first 4 batters got a hit, 3 of them scored, and the pressure was on. Tinoco promptly struck out the next three batters. that touched off seven scoreless innings, with only 4 more hits and no walks and a total of 10 strikeouts. As with Reid-Foley, he sits on the verge of being a "high buzz" name among Jays fans. The prospect experts already know what he's about.

Batters

The main question-
Dalton Pompey (New Hampshire) - The Blue Jays' management team thought perhaps Pompey was putting too much pressure on himself in Buffalo to make a quick return to Toronto. So they gave him some distance by dropping him to AA New Hampshire. Only Pompey can say whether he was, in fact, pressing in AAA but he sure found his groove once he moved East. It's only a seven game sample but a 1.334 OPS is kinda eye-catching. Alex said initially that he only anticipated Pompey being in New Hampshire "a couple of weeks" - that looks like an accurate prediction.

the Lansing Crew-
Anthony Alford - Alford has cooled some since his OPS peaked at an astonishing .909 on May 26 (It wasn't logical to assume THAT was going to last) and some adversty is good for a ballplayers soul. In the 14 games since then, he's 11 for 55 (.200) with 23 strikeouts and only one XBH. Speculation from afar means little, but based on the strikeouts (that's almost exactly twice the rate of his previous 107 AB) one might guess they've learned how to make him chase balls outside the zone and he hasn't adjusted his approach.

Richard Urena - The gifted shortstp has a story that's the reverse of Alford. He was very cold to start the season (at the plate and in general, as a Latin player opening the season in Michigan for the first time). The stats for his first 11 games (.188/.234/.256/.490) has served to disguise how well he's doing since to the casual observer. Beginning April 23 until the beginning of play today, his slash numbers are .305/.319/.519/.838 in 187 at bats. The power is shocking pretty much everyone and is likely to regress as the season wears on. The flip side is he has ten times as many strikeouts as walks over that stretch. Still, it's an interesting factoid that he's outhitting the traded rival for the tag shortstop of the future, Frankin Barreto, so far this season.

Rowdy Tellez - June has not been kind to Rowdy so far, sorting a .485 OPS (at the start of play tonight) as a result of a slump that actually started 2 days before June arrived. He does enjoy a reputation with his manager and the organization of being a very smart hitter who knows how to adjust. Which, given he's yet to go more than two consecutive games without a hit, there's something to that. He continued that pattern going 2/3 in tonight's game. A 12 game sample, though, is far too small to tell us much. One thing I've learned over the years is a that a minor leaguer can look like the mext Mike Trout for a month, and like Ryan Goins the next.

DJ Davis - Anthony Alford may have a rival for most interesting story in the system in fellow Mississippian Davis. A lot of observers, myself included, were on the verge of shoving him out of the "prospects only" room after his ugly 2014 campaign. To remind you, he slashed .213/.286/.316/583 last year with 167 strikeouts in 494 at bats. When his OPS sank from .845 on April 25 to .681 on May 17 the narrative practically wrote itself. But Davis, this time, was having none of it.  In the 21 games since(coming into Saturday), he's slashing .373/.440/.520/.960 which is, of course, unsustainable but it shows he has the ability in there. Still hasn't mastered the SB yet, but one thing at a time. He's also pounded LHP in a small sample this year.

Tim Locastro - Here's a guy who's got "future folk hero" written all over him. Not drafted as a prospect or praised as one at any previous point in his career, but the second baseman has one outstanding calling card: he'll do whatever it takes to get on base.  Locastro was hit by a pitch an incredible 32 times in 67 games in Vancouver last season and is on a similar pace this year. For perspective, that pace last year, had it been over 150 major league games would have around 20 beyond the major league record. Reports are he takes the same "do anything" attitude to the basepath and the field.All that and he finished tonight hitting .326

Ryan McBroom - The 1B who's forced to DH because Tellez needs the reps in the field, is considered a potential power threat and not for no reason - he did hit 11 in 70 games in Vancouver last year to go with 23 doubles. But he has only 2 homers so far for Lansing, Otherwise though, his offensive game is better than ever so far, notably a much better walk rate. He's probably going to be stuck with playing second fiddle to Tellez throughout the system, but some observers think he has potential to surprise.

Others of note-
JD Davis (Dunedin) - Last month he'd have been a part of that list of Lansing hitters putting up eye-catching stats, but he was promoted to Dunedin halfway through May and after three great games hit the DL. He was out until June 4 but he came back just as hot as when he sat down. In 14 games in Lansing he hit over .400 with an OPS of 1.094, in 9 games in Dunedin he's hitting .424 with an OPS of 1.078 and six steals at each stop (which may not sound like much but pro-rate that to 162 games and it's 84). This from a guy who's a charter member of Marcus Stroman's HDMH club, standing 5'8" (officially). Suddenly the Jays are loaded with interesting CF prospects.

Roemon Fields - Like Urena, it pays to see how he's been coming along after a short cold start. Drop the first six games of the year from his record and he's slashing .292/.333/.387/.720 over the last 53 games. Hes, it's blatant A.E.P. sampling, but there's value, in my opinion, in watching trends.  This alone doesn't make him a top prospect, of course, but given how very few professional at-bats he has, compared to other High-A players, and his blazing speed, he doesn't have to be putting up an .800+ OPS to be interesting.

Andy Burns - I keep thinking this guy is, you know, just a guy after all, but he keeps doing just enough to keep from being dismissed as an org guy. Take away the guys no longer on the team, and major league veteran Luke Scott, and Burns is the second best hitter on the veteran Buffalo squad. He doesn't do anything great, but he does most everything pretty good. That still doesn't likely get him to the show, but who knows? He doesn't seem to go away.

Matt Hague - The best hitter (left) in Buffalo is this guy. He's spent most of the season at 3B, you won't see him in the majors unless the unspeakable happens, but you can't not mention a guy hitting .350 in AAA either.


Alrighty then. That went on longer than I expected, both in word count and time spent, but there ya go.

Brainstorming solutions

[Update: some of the assumptions below have been altered somewhat by the Blue Jays decision to bump their rotation back a day. I trust my readers - both of you - to be able to  sort through those implications. Damned if I'm going to edit the thing. I will, however note that if they are going to take this step to rest the starters, it's markedly less likely the use the upcoming off days to juggle in the manner about which I speculated if it means costing too many of them the extra rest]

I'm still remaining calm, but I admit to being a bit morose. I suppose it's too much to hope for to be a powerhouse over the course of a season when you're just hoping for your first October in over two decades, but constant mediocrity grinds you down in a way that just being obviously awful wouldn't. And despite having lost 15 of their last 22, this isn't a BAD team. If it occurs to you at some point that I'll sound like Wilner in my position on this team, that's understandable because on this question, I think he's right.

So what's wrong with it? Let's narrow the possibilities. As of this writing the Blue Jays are still the most prolific offensive team in the game. They are the first and so far only team in the majors to 200 runs, and only one AL team is even close. This despite getting no offense at all form SS, little from CF, and playing two AAAA place holders in the outfield (albeit both contributing a lot with the bat). Asking the team to improve by scoring even more runs isn't rational, nor is quibbling about the timing of said runs (i.e. only scoring 2 today to name just one case). It is true that the team potentially gets better still on offense when everyone is where they were intended to be. But adding in Reyes, Saunders, and whoever is playing 1B today isn't necessarily going to be a ton better than Colabello, Carrera and the hapless Goins have been collectively. They just have a more reliable track record.

So then if it's not the offense then what? Fielding? let's don't be silly. Donaldson, Goins, and Travis make up an excellent infield (EE isn't an embarrassment) and Pillar is a well known magician. Martin I don't even have to defend. Colabello is a liability but we're not five games under because of LF defense.

That leaves pitching. The much disrespected bullpen? Not really. There have been some ugly moments, to be sure, however by most measures they compare well (4th in the AL in K/9 for example, 7th in OOPS, OOBP, and WHIP). Not lights out or anything, but serviceable enough  Speaking in particular of the guys currently on the team, there's really only one issue - Jeff Francis. I think we're all mystified how he's still on the team. Loup? Nah. Six of his nine runs allowed came three apiece in two outings, with five weeks between them. He's fine.
ETA: As I was writing this, Francis was thankfully DFA'd and Todd Redmond was recalled. Redmond was good enough in 2014 to make me slow to read too much into his 4.1 innings in 2015. We'll see how it goes. 

It's not a Hitchcockian twist that I have arrived where you knew i was going all along. The rotation.

Drew Hutchison - 6.17 ERA
Hutch has the worst ERA of the current five, but he's been fine in his last two starts (3 ER over 11 IP) other than the need to economize his pitches and go deeper. My brainstorm which inspired this post was the idea of demoting him but you can't really do that coming off two good starts.

Mark Buehrle - 5.36 ERA
Practically speaking, you can't do anything with Buehrle anyway. If he's not part of the solution then there is no solution. Beyond that, almost 1/3 of his runs allowed came in one of his eight starts. Take away that one start and his ERA otherwise is 4.22 which is not good enough but it's major. Take that one and the one immediately prior to it and we're down to 3.65 which is slightly better than his career ERA. We're going to have to hope that starts #4 and 5 were just a horrible blip and that he'll be fine from now on. It's not an irrational hope at all but our collective nerves are jumpy, right?

Aaron Sanchez - 4.26 ERA
Channeling Wilner again on this point - we can't fairly say what Sanchez's baseline is. We know he has the stuff to get far better, but we have no idea when or if he turns it on. Someone pointed out on Twitter the other night the example of Chris Archer. Archer is a monster now, at the age of 26 and has been well above average for three years with a BB/9 of 3.1 as a major leaguer, yet from 2008 through 2011, at A and AA, his collective BB/9 was 5.25 and ranged as high as 6.6 so great talent can overcome control issues. Not to say it always does. His last start was his worst, and it can't be ruled out to give him the Norris Maneuver and see how it goes - particularly if he's still inconsistent when Norris is ready to return. Still, they'll likely give him at least two more starts before deciding anything. His third turn out falls on an off day so that wold be a natural point to maybe make a move.

Marco Estrada - 5.52 ERA (as starter)
Has gotten better results start to start but if he can't economize and get beyond the 5th inning, he's not going to have the job long. It's not a matter of being stretched out, he's thrown almost 100 pitches in the last two outings and still only went five. With a rotation otherwise struggling and a bullpen that's soft towards the back, you can't have that. He's got two more turns before the Jays come to a 15 day stretch with three off days. If he doesn't step up in that time I expect some rotation changes while they have some flexibility.

RA Dickey - 5.76 ERA
I was worried about Dickey before the season started, and was saying that I didn't think his option would be - or should be - picked up. But I didn't see this coming. Still, if I make an effort to parse things out and be fair, I could argue that five of his first six games were fine - 3.15 ERA n those five games and a not insane 4.38 with the bad one. But the last two have been hideous. You have to hope it's a blip - remember Buehrle had two awful games and recovered - because this team is NOT going to be quick to do something different with him for the very reason that the knuckleball is a recipe for inconsistency. If he, and the team, don't feel he's gotten it together in two more starts, they have the opportunity to do some jugging with the off days in order to let him skip a start, but it's kind of a tricky thing because there'd be a start that, well, let e show you.

As it stands, the rotation from May 24 goes like this:
Hutch > RAD > Estrada > Buehrle > off > Sanchez > Hutch > RAD > Estrada > Buehrle > Sanchez >off

Now what you can do is flip RAD and Hutch, giving the latter a 7th day start (he pitches much better on long rest) while RA goes on his normal rest but also lines up his next turn with an off day. Cool except - if he pitches well in that start do you still want to skip the turn? Me, I'd flip them anyway just to have the option - but the Blue Jays haven't been known for such maneuvering. And of course, there might be other ways you'd prefer to use the off day - say to line Estrada''s turn up with the guy you anticipate replacing him with. Still, all you can do with Dickey in the most radical extreme is let him pitch in long relief and i don't think that they would anticipate that as the best role for recapturing some measure of consistency.

What? You thought I'd have answers?
My long-distance judgement is that Hutch is likely to be fine going forward, as is Buehrle, and that you're stuck with Dickey. If I'm wrong about Hutch, and if he really looks bad for, say, three consecutive starts, he does in fact have an option.
Sanchez? I don't think they will let him go all year walking this many. How much rope he gets may well depend on internal evaluations of progress that we won't be told about unless he's optioned. It's maybe 40/60 he's given a visit to Buffalo before the end of the month (here i disagree with Wilner, I don't think they just punt him to the bullpen. There's some short term gain there but if you want him to eventually be a top-shelf starter you have to resist that.
Estrada? Yeah, unless he pulls out a 7 inning start with good stats, he's got two more turns - three at most to try. Because the options made be as good at it as he is and quite possibly better.

Options? Yeah, here's the top of that list:

Daniel Norris - only the internal observations can really tell us if he's making the progress in Buffalo that they are looking for. The BB/9 ratio is virtually identical, the K's are up a tick, the contact down some - but this is AAA after all. His longest outing, 6.1 IP on 103 pitches. Slightly better than Estrada on efficiency, likely to get better results. but ENOUGH better to justify recalling Norris if you aren't satisfied he's in the groove? I'm not sure. One factor, if you aren't down for 20 days you don't use up an option - he has three days left on that clock, if he's still in Buffalo on Thursday it cold be a while.
On the other hand, we're gaining an extra year of control in 2021 so that's fun!

Randy Wolf - Yes, he's owning the IL right now. He ran off a string of 22 scoreless innings, and he's given up more than 1 earned run (3) in only one of his 7 starts. He's hot. He's also not really this good. He's a 38 year old soft-tosser who's using a lot of guile and a little stuff. He could be the equivalent of Francis against big league hitters (which is exactly what he's been since 2011). Still and all, he has a June 1 opt out and if Estrada (or Sanchez) doesn't firm up their grip before the next off day the Blue Jays will have to at least consider seeing if he can give them a band-aid that will at least buy the kids some more time. Let's say for the sake of argument Sanchez holds on and Estrada doesn't.  If you plug Wolf into Estrada's turn and push it back every time an off day allows you to, then three starts (enough to draw some conclusions) would string it out until June 21 before you had to make a call on Norris or some other kid. He's on the same rotation day as Estrada, FWIW.

Felix Doubront - Has made only one appearance for Buffalo, but coincidentally his third turn out from now aligns with Sanchez's day to pitch (if they don't skip him on the off day). He enjoys the advantage over Wolf of being 11 years younger, but his one good year (at 25) was just slightly below average, so unless they see something the stats don't sow he's no savior. He's probably better than Albers and definitely better than Francis but otherwise - who the hell knows?

Scott Copeland - At 27 (same as Doubront) he's sort of an org-guy clawing his way onto the radar. He's a ground-ball machine who really impressed them in the Spring and he's already been up once. Don't expect a miracle, but like Wolf, he might be a guy who could buy them 4-6 weeks to see if the kids are going to pull things together.  give Sanchez 4 more kicks at the can and Copeland's turn lines up with his for the fifth turn out, on June 9.

Matt Boyd - a 24 year old LH college kid who's owning the EL on the AA level and really probably is gonna need to be challenged. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher but he gets a lot of K's and gives up - at least at this level - not many baserunners. As long as the Jays are hoarding veterans (Wolf, Doubront, Albers) at AAA there's not a lot of room for him there (if we count Castro's developmental turns, they actually have six starters their now) and if they think he can handle the jump i wouldn't be at all surprised to see Boyd make the jump to the majors in the right spot - though I'd be mildly surprised if it was more than just a patch-over 2-3 start thing. If Wolf opts out at the end of the month, Boyd will surely be promoted. He's another guy, by the way, who projects to start in close parallel to Sanchez's start days (outside the vaguries caused by off-days).

In summation, while I'm not down on Estrada if he's the fifth guy based on his career, I'm not sure he's a good fit for a sometimes struggling group and see nothing lost if any of these guys get a trial in that turn (other than not wanting  Norris to be yoyo'ed). They may or may not be better, but it might save your 'pen a bit at least. As for Sanchez, we simply can't know without internal info what they are thinking with him. I suspect that if at least three of the others get in a reliable quality groove they will give him a lot of rope, but if Dickey continues to flounder, Estrada stays short, and/or one of the others goes backwards then Sanchez may become the change to make just out of an urge to do SOMETHING.  The old-timers in his spot would be a come down, as the potential for a dominant start pretty much disappears, but I'd as soon see either of those young lefties in his spot as see him remain.

None of this, by the way, should be read as me giving up on either Hutch, Sanchez, or Norris. I love dreaming on the future with those three along with Stroman, Hoffman, and Osuna and consider these growing pains part of the process. But sadly, they are backed into a win-now corner so a balance has to be struck.

Monthly Prospect Progress and Stuff: 1 of 5

I'm kind of feeling unnecessary again. In the Jays' blogosphere there's so very much good work being done by those well equipped to address virtually any angle that there's really almost no room for some little long distance casual blogger like myself to contribute anything more than an occasionally interesting (I hope!) opinion. Does anyone read sports blogs for opinions, really? They're looking for actual facts and information they didn't already have - and they all pretty much follow the same sources I do, the ones who don't have some sort of inside contact in the organization and know more on any given day that I do.

I could list off a dozen blogs that any half-interested Blue Jays fan really ought to be following religiously. But I can't honestly say mine would be one of those. No sooner than I thought I'd found a niche doing weekly updates than i realized some 3 or more other bloggers were doing it as well, and generally better (either via deeper analysis or better connections). I'm probably not going to bother with that anymore.

Still, in previous seasons (last year's unfortunate events notwithstanding) I'd done updates at the end, roughly, of each month of the minor league season. I need to be plugging away at SOME thing or their won't be enough content here to make it worthwhile to post at all so I'll see how this works. I had previously done these reports more in relation to player status and performance than by team (be honest, do you REALLY care who's in first place in the Midwest League on May 1? if you're not a fan of the Midwest league team first - no you don't, and maybe not even then) and I'll continue that pattern, but slightly modified in that I'll format it a bit more toward the Top Prospect list.

What follows then will reflect a consensus prospect list which results from combining the rankings by myself and nine other bloggers (technically more than nine since it uses the Batters Box list which is itself a compilation of the minor league contributes there). The list tracks fairly closely to a consensus list of nine leading professional sources (BA, BP, Kieth Law, John Sickels and others)  - each list has the same 10 players in the top 10, although in slightly different order from 5-10 - but four of the pro lists only go to 10, while every blogger went to at least 20 (and most to 30 or beyond. This allows me to get a consensus list 20 deep, and I'll also look at other players of note at the end, particularly guys who might end up in the Top 20 by years end. As per the old format, they are divided into pitchers and hitters.

Pitchers

1. Dan Norris  / LH / Buffalo - Given his work to this point has been in the majors, you know the deal. Beat reporters have noted that the team thinks the issue is mostly mental (i.e. struggling with shaking off a bit of adversity, and/or trying to be too perfect) and over-dependence on the fastball.

2. Aaron Sanchez  / RH / Toronto - Tantalizing and frustrating for reasons I'm sure you've noted. 

4. Jeff Hoffman / RH /  (extended) - drawing rave reviews before he even gets into game action, he's probably less than two weeks away from being assigned (my money is on Dunedin) and the talk suggests he's rise as fast as his production dictates ala Graveman, Norris, etc last year. Legit possibility the jays see him in September but one must be careful about assuming too much.

5. Roberto Osuna  / RH / Toronto - so far so good. A busy reliever's standard workload is just about right as he builds up his IP, the real question is whether they trap him in relief or let him spend part of a year back on the farm in 2016 adding to those 80 or so innings so that he's an option for the rotation if the need arises. I never heard anyone say he projected as a reliever anyway until late spring so I wonder if that's a bit revisionist.

6. Miguel Castro  / RH / Toronto Buffalo - Conversely, I have little problem envisioning Castro on track to be the closer long term rather than being re-tracked into a starting role next year. I'm not sure I can explain completely why I view the two so differently. But basically, Castro was the guy with the devastating fastball while needing  lot of work on secondary offerings - one upgrade, to the change, turned him into a guy with two above average pitches but no one really describes the others as  ready (though the slider gets some buzz). OTOH, Osuna was described as a guy with an arsenal and the pitchability of one much older back when he was 15. But given the depth of young stud pitchers, it's not a bad thing at all if he ends up closing. All that said, I don't figure anyone is stunned to see an A-ball guy take a minute or two to adapt to being in the majors. I would worry over much about the demotion.

10. Sean Reid-Foley  / RH / Lansing - If one could overlook the wildness, they'd find his line astonishing. For someone who was still in his last days of high school a year ago and already in A Ball, you have to like it.

 13. Matt Smoral / LH /  (extended) - Shi Davidi helpfully provided some insight here into the as-yet-unassigned pitching and Smoral was one mentioned. Most of us amateurs were puzzled he didn't break with a full-season squad but the dirt here is that he had a minor injury they chose to be cautious with. Now that he's getting read to get into real games, there's a bit of a crowding issue. This applies to others on the list as well so let me g on a bit of a tangent here.

The current Lansing starting staff has six guys, four of who appear elsewhere in this post. In Dunedin there's less crowding and three veteran free agent organization filler guys (Allen, Santos, and Smith) on hand. Hoffman figures to kick one of those guys aside and logically, one or two of the Lansing guys ought to be on the verge of doing the same to the other two. One would assume that when this happens, there'll be room for Smoral in Lansing.

14. Jario Labourt  / LH / Dunedin - Last year he was aggressively placed to Lansing, he was a mess and after a mere 14 IP (in which he walked 20!) he was dropped back to extended before being assigned to Vancouver where he pitched great (albeit still wit more walks than ideal, but that's not shocking for younger guys). He earned an assignment to Dunedin this spring, skipping the cold of Lansing, but it hasn't been all sunshine anyway. He went great start awful start, great then awful again. Now he's on the 7-Day DL.(That's what happens when you write a post a week before you plan to publish it)

18. Alberto Tirado / RH /  Dunedin - Same as above, he started 2014 in Lansing along with Labourt, and was awful - walking almost a batter an inning until they pulled the plug after 40 IP and sent him down to Vancouver, where he improved somewhat but still walked too many initially. He never made it back to Lansing but showed enough this spring for another aggressive promotion (albeit this time as a reliever) to Dunedin. In the early going, he's not stumbled this time. Davidi quotes Jays' Farm Director Tony LaCava in reporting Tirado may eventually be tried as a starter again, but needed to have some success.

19. Ryan Borucki / LH /  (extended) - Disabled after an elbow clean-up, there's no fresh news which implies he's not on the mound yet.

Beyond the Top 20, in order of how I ranked them:

Jesus Tinoco / RH  / (extended) - Pitched well enough in extended that when Lansing needed an arm for the duble-header the found themselves in this week, he got the promotion. He wasn't immediately sent back out after so maybe they are going to give him an extended look.
Case DeJong  / LH / Lansing - Re-bounding nicely from last year's struggles, should be on the countdown to make the move to Dunedin soon (as discussed above). Of course, I'm only looking at the stat line as with many of my comments.
Clint Hollon  / RH  / (extended) - When/if DeJong (or someone else - see below) moves up, Smoral is in line to replace him - this guy, an almost forgotten by many 2nd round choice,  would then be next in line, although it's possible that he'll be held back long enough to get a taste of Canada in Vancouver (something Alex talked about a few weeks ago as something the team would factor in when making assignments) 
Matt Boyd  / LH / New Hampshire -  Dominating so far, LaCava told Davidi he still needed work on his secondary pitches. Still, a lot of observers feel like that he might be a guy who could push his way into a late-season bullpen appearance. If he can overcome the logjam of relievers the Jays have stockpiled in AAA of course. Which is not to say they will not continue to view him as a starter for as long as possible. Also could be one of the more attractive trade candidates.
Adonys Cardona / RH /  (extended) -recovering from yet another injury that shortened 2014, LaCava reports he's hitting as high as 97 again. To try and keep him healthy, he'll work from the bullpen as what LaCava called a "priority reliever" which I take to me, he'll get his innings on a regular schedule regardless of situation, and then they will re-evaluate his future as a starter f he stays out there all year. Should be activated by Lansing soon.

Others to watch:
Shane Dawson  / LH / Lansing - Soft-tosser is fooling everyone and needs to be challenged with a promotion which one would think would be coming quite soon, P
Conner Greene  /  RH / Lansing - 2013 draftee (7th round), just past his 20th birthday, posting tasty ratios in the early going which bodes well for continued success.
John Anderson / LH / New Hampshire -The Dustin McGowan of the Jays minor leagues, he has good enough stuff for them to stick with him, but enough injuries to make everything uncertain. He's accumulated less than 300 IP in the system since 2008. LaCava says he has "probably the best stuff" on the AA team but he just needs consistent work. Given the org depth among SP, that window of opportunity may have closed for him but a power lefty in the 'pen is a valuable thing if that's where he lands.

Reliever-polooza:
In no particular order, other than being grouped by level, the following guys have rocked it so far - minor league relieving being what it is, who can say which of these might offer major league results at some point. (Not nitpicking here about what constitutes actual "prospect")
Buffalo - Colt Hynes, Ryan Tepera, Rob Rasmussen, Preston Gulmet, Bo Schultz (apart from one bad inning from Luis Perez, the whole 'pen here really)
New Hampshire - Matt West, Danny Barnes, Blake McFarland, Dustin Antolin, Tiago Da Silva (just promoted)
Dunedin - Will Browning, Chad Giordo, Jimmy Cordero


Hitters

3. Dalton Pompey / CF /  Buffalo -  You know at least as much as I, there hasn't yet been any in-depth reporting on the demotion but one might suppose that this is one of those "how will you react to failure?" moments that high-character payers will come back from just fine.

7. Max Pentacost / C /  (extended) - Technically listed on the Dunedin roster, and on the 7 day DL, but the originally mentioned recovery times dovetails nicely with the beginning of the short-season teams' season, and I'm inclined to think the Jays might give him a little run through the Northwest League before moving him back to A ball.

8. Devon Travis / 2B /  Toronto - Really nothing to say here, right?

9. Richard Urena / SS /  Lansing -needs to start getting that K rate down but for a Dominican playing in the cold for the first time, some grace is warranted. Not enough data yet.

11. Mitch Nay / 3B / Dunedin - LaCava explains they've made adjustments to Nay to see if he can pull the ball more to capitalize his in-game power (most think he has significant power potential but it doesn't manifest in games, the team thinks, because he tends to hit to the middle of the field. As such, you can't make too much of his stats so far.

12. Dwight Smith, Jr. / LF / New Hampshire - If he had more power, or speed, or glove, he'd get a lot more notice. For me, he's still a "tweener" who lacks a clear major league path, but he can hit ad draw walks and that's not nothing. Might be helpful in a trade to a less ambitious team.

15. Anthony Alford / CF / Lansing - Has done nothing to dim the high praise he's now getting from all quarters. It's not a crazy claim to suggest he's already the best position player prospect the Jays have.  Still, it's early and adjustments - and counter adjustments - are yet in the future.

16. Rowdy Tellez / 1B / Lansing -.899 OPS since April 15, like Urena, too many K's but pretty easy to overlook if he's producing. Put it down as a goal, more than a concern.

17. Dawel Lugo / SS / Dunedin - he's just 20 and at A+ which buys some grace, but I seriously worry whether he'll ever hit and the stat line does nothing to convince me I'm wrong so far. LaCava says they are happy with him though so...shrug?

20 AJ Jimenez / C / Buffalo - Just promoted after spending some time in AA when he came off the DL (presumably because Thole being in Buffalo would have regulated one of them to the bench). He's done nothing in 2015 and he's in danger of losing what tiny sliver of prospect status he has left unless he has a pretty remarkable rest-of-the-season.

Beyond the Top 20 (as I ranked them):
Lane Thomas / IF-OF / (extended) - It's not that they don't list him as a 2B, it's that he's so good they can't decide where his bat plays best. He probably doesn't have the pop traditionally associated with 3B, so it's here or CF and it's probably easier to move out later if needed than in.
Matt Dean / 1B / Dunedin - Some occasional homers can't disguise the horrid BB/K ratio. That would take massive power he hasn't shown. Averaging a strikeout per game at 22 without it tends to kill your prospect status.
DJ Davis / CF / Lansing -Really seemed to have figured things out for a secnd, then hit a 1 for 17 over 5 games that suppressed his rates. You know how early season slumps can kill a player's line. Bears watching.
Dan Jansen / C - Lansing -It's like most of the Lansing squad wasn't ready for Michigan in early April and took the first week off. Jansen was 0 for 14 in his first five games. Unlike some of the other slow starters, he hasn't gotten untracked yet. Time will tell if the progression was too aggressive or if he finds a way to get his swing going.

Others to watch:
Andy Burns / IF / Buffalo - More "sleeper" than prospect by the most generous of estimates. But his some versatility and maybe enough bat to cling to the end of a major league bench. Maybe. Probably not but...maybe.
Christan Lopes / 2B / New Hampshire - very well regarded when drafted, Lopes has mastered the art of mediocre as a pro. He seemed to show some significant breakout potential in winter ball down under but it was more of "pretty okay" for Dunedin in April. Still, maybe the Jays see something - he was just promoted to NH - or maybe it was just the best they could do when the AA squad found themselves short-handed.
 Roemon Fields - / CF / Dunedin - first (almost) week was a disaster - a .167 OPS in the first six games - but since April 15 his OPS is .760 which, given his inexperience, is pretty okay.
Dicke Joe Thon / IF-OF / Dunedin - Kicked ass at Lansing - but was some 2 years (at least) two old for the league, off to a slow start in five games in Dunedin but I'm sucker enough for the feel-good story that I'll give him a minute.
Ryan McBroom / 1B / Lansing -He's a 1B, DHing only because Tellez is on the same team. He's hitting well, and he's 3 years older than Tellez so obviously much impacted by that in terms of prospect status.


In the future, I'll address actual news, good and bad, and not include guys just because they were on a pre-season list.