Following the same format, not bothering with a link dump since that's done better elsewhereby guys getting paid to do it.
Item: Get ready for the Fasano Flop! Apparently Sal Fasano has come up with a technique to both block the plate and avoid massive home-plate collisions. How cool would it be to add something new to the grand old game that no one ever thought of before?
Item: as the paid press is wont to do, there are several very similar stories today about the role mark DeRosa is trying to play in refining Mr. Incredible, aka Brett Lawrie. At one point DeRosa is quoted making a comparison between Lawrie and The National's Bryce Harper(!)
Item: Brandon Morrow employs on-line site to demonstrate to Ricky Romero one of the places where he went wrong last year. It seems Romero lost confidence in, and almost stopped using, the sinker which had been possibly his most effective pitch in 2011. Morrow found data which showed that Romero's use of that pitch had dropped by half from 2011 to 2012. This is cool not only in that it motivated Romero to go out today and focus on regaining the polish he once had on his sinker, but also as an insight into how at least one member of the staff is looking for not-so-obvious information in an effort to make himself and his team better. The only question in my mind is - why don't the Jays have someone in their employee looking for just this sort of data?
Item: Casey Janssen is taking it slow. So slowly that no one seems to speak with confidence about him opening the season on the active roster. No one is really worried about the long term recovery, but given the number of out-of-options players they have to manage, and the awkward situation concerning who will actually be the closer, a couple of weeks on the DL might be just what the management could use right now. Ultimately, it would give them a couple of more weeks to decide about fence-sitting guys like Jefress and Cecil, and it would also allow them to more naturally flow into a "co-closer" situation with Janssen and Santos. I'd guess that the Jays would ultimately be stronger if Santos got the bulk of the classic save situations, while Janssen got both the 4-inning-or-more save situations and was also available for the very pivotal 7th and8th inning situations. You might end up with Santos having 30 saves and Janssen having 10 or 12, but with the latter every bit as crucial to the success of the pen as the former. The flip side being that Santos probably would NOT be as effective in those more-than-an-inning tasks as Janssen would. The problem, as always, is whether or not they can see past the baseball cliches associated with being the "capital C" closer, and the resulting worries about hurt feelings and such like.
Item: Some are not convinced Mekly Cabrera might not face further punishment. I'd be pretty stunned by that but, also, seeing Bonafacio getting a chance to run wild would be kinda cool. Pro-rate his steal numbers from last year and imagine him following Reyes in the batting order.
Item: Jays acquire another big high-strikeout reliever for bargain basement prices. Michael Schwimmer might be, say, Jeremy Accardo...or he might be Jeremy Accorado, (if you don't know what that means, check out his career stats) but either way, if you can get a guy who might in theory contribute something to the major league team for Art Charles, you do that all day and all night. Charles is never going to suit up for a major league game.
Item: John Farrel sets new standard. For a long time, the classic "in-joke" around the Jays was "it's not a lie if we know the truth" but that meme may now have been supplanted when John Farrel said in an interview yesterday "if I recall correctly, I was traded." Right. Came as a complete shock to ya, eh? If I'd had any cle that the Jays would bring back Gibby, I'd have founded "firejohnfarrell.com a year ago.
Tuesday, 26 February 2013
Tuesday, 19 February 2013
Duneiden Dispatches
As the paid media ramps up their detailing of all things Blue Jays in this most optimistic of springs, it seems to me that the link dumps have already been done elsewhere (DJF is very through, and you can follow Blue Jays Aggregator on Twitter for another fine source) s rather than do that, I think I'll just do a player-by-player rundown on the items that have caught my eye and contribute a fresh spin, if I have one.
Starting from the outfield wall and moving inwards...
Melky Cabrera - has said "stop asking me about the PEDs" and I think that's fair. The question of how much of his past 2 years production was "enhanced" is a fair one (I say this as one who is not convinced that PEDs actually produce much in the way of enhanced results, except in the recovery time from injury and I don't see why I should object to that effect). But let's confine the discussion of the subject to "what are our reasonable expectations for LF production in 2013?' m'kay.?
Colby Rasmus - Richard Griffin, among others, writes that this is Rasmus' "make or break year" which, realistically, it is. If he is going to hold off Anthony Gose in Toronto, he must step up his game this year. Otherwise he'll find himself starting over again next year. Some suggestions, though it is very early, about his approach seem to be hopeful. I'm one of those who's irrationally optimistic about a big year for him.
Jose Bautista - the question has been asked whether his wrist will still hamper his production this year, but the strong buzz in Dunedin is that he's swinging with authority and shows no sign of ill effect.
Brett Lawrie - there's a story out that Mark DeRosa has assumed the mentor role with Lawrie, and while I'm a skeptic about DeRosa's contributions at the plate, if indeed his vaunted leadership skills leverage maximum production for Lawrie, it more than justifies his spot on the roster. I've seen one article which suggests that there's still a solid chance he could step to the next level this year. I, for one, believe that Lawrie will very soon insert him into the discussion "who's the best 3B in baseball?" and wouldn't be shocked if he did so in 2013.
Jose Reyes- Much is being made of the enthusiasm Reyes brings to the clubhouse and the field. While there's a limit to how much that translates into actual wins, if these reports are accurate, Reyes stands to become as big a fan favorite as Lawrie and Joey Bats.
Macir Izturs/Emilio Bonifacio - the well know "only competition among batters in camp" meme is being played out hard. I started out, after the trade, assuming that Bonifacio would win the job, but the article soften mentioned that Izturus is rated a better defender and i'm moving to the view that the team might work betters with Izturus the primary 2B, and Bonifacio available to provide spot starts and flexibility all over the left side of the field. I don't think there's a wrong answer here.
Edwin Encarnacion - one of the things no one is writing about that's on my mind is how much EE is now considered the first baseman, as opposed to the DH. My guess is that he'll spend a lot of time their during ST and lay claim to the position, if for no other reason than the guy who's performing ought to get preference when it comes to being on the field (which every hitter prefers to being a DH) when all other things (health, defense, etc) are equal.
Adam Lind - famously put his foot in his mouth concerning the departed coaches. Chad Mottola, the new batting coach, is confident he can get Lind back to being productive. Most think the leash is pretty short. If things go poorly, you'll see an import before the break. If Jim Thome finds himself unemployed on April 1, don't be surprised if the Jays stay in contact with him as long as Lind's production is in doubt. David Cooper is, however, not breathing down his neck this spring. Cooper has serious back issues and his potential to ever be a regular major leaguer may be in doubt.
JP Arencibia - the only storyline here is his determination to be a viable option for catching RA Dickey (and thereby being in the Opening Day lineup. Of course, there's also the ongoing competition behind the plate among potential back-ups Josh Thole and the aging Henry Blanco. I still can't wrap my head around the idea that Blanco is the favorite here, unless Thole is still nursing some injury, but you have to file it under "the team knows more than I do."
The rotation - Dickey's knuclker is impressing already; Johnson is talking about how his improvement over the course of 2012 had to do with bringing back and refining his curve; Romero reports the injuries he had cleaned up over the winter to be feeling very good and hopefully his mental state is much improved,given he's no longer expected to carry the staff on his own shoulders; Mark Behrlie is being discussed more for the dog issue than anything else; and all is quite regarding Brandon Morrow - but let us pause for a sec and contemplate the times opposing teams will have to deal with his heat after having faced Dickey the night before.
Casey Janssen/Sergio Santos - the former is the presumptive closer, but going at a reduced speed while he recovers from minor off-season surgery. In theory this opens the door for Santos, who's reportedly fully healthy, but short relievers don't need much ST to be ready so it's a month too early for this speculation.
Other pitchers...
Dustin McGowan - had been throwing since December, experienced mild shoulder pain (which he blames on too-long long toss) - obviously I can't express optimism but i still have hope.
JA Happ - the theme remains that he's potentially ticketed for Buffalo, more on that in a sec.
Brad Lincoln - Like Happ, he has options and those may land him in the Buffalo rotation, but...
Darren Oliver - all quiet
Steve Delenbar - all discussion presumes he's set to be a key player in Toronto, even though he does have an option or two.
Esmil Rogers, Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jefress - all out of options and thus all assumed to have something of an edge in making the team. AA even mentioned at the SOTF meeting that rogers was assured a job on that basis. But today John Gibbons said that he would take the best team north, options aside.If that's true, all three of these will have to fight for their job. McGowan is out of options too and should he end the spring healthy, something has to give.
In theory, Happ, Lincoln, and younger guys like Chad Jenkins, Aaron Loup, and Evan Crawford would be part of such a competition. Some writers suggest that minor league free agent signings like Justin Germano and David Bush would also be candidates but I have a very hard time believing THAT.
Still, Gibbons' claim enlivens what is already probably the most interesting roster-construction discussion of the spring.
Starting from the outfield wall and moving inwards...
Melky Cabrera - has said "stop asking me about the PEDs" and I think that's fair. The question of how much of his past 2 years production was "enhanced" is a fair one (I say this as one who is not convinced that PEDs actually produce much in the way of enhanced results, except in the recovery time from injury and I don't see why I should object to that effect). But let's confine the discussion of the subject to "what are our reasonable expectations for LF production in 2013?' m'kay.?
Colby Rasmus - Richard Griffin, among others, writes that this is Rasmus' "make or break year" which, realistically, it is. If he is going to hold off Anthony Gose in Toronto, he must step up his game this year. Otherwise he'll find himself starting over again next year. Some suggestions, though it is very early, about his approach seem to be hopeful. I'm one of those who's irrationally optimistic about a big year for him.
Jose Bautista - the question has been asked whether his wrist will still hamper his production this year, but the strong buzz in Dunedin is that he's swinging with authority and shows no sign of ill effect.
Brett Lawrie - there's a story out that Mark DeRosa has assumed the mentor role with Lawrie, and while I'm a skeptic about DeRosa's contributions at the plate, if indeed his vaunted leadership skills leverage maximum production for Lawrie, it more than justifies his spot on the roster. I've seen one article which suggests that there's still a solid chance he could step to the next level this year. I, for one, believe that Lawrie will very soon insert him into the discussion "who's the best 3B in baseball?" and wouldn't be shocked if he did so in 2013.
Jose Reyes- Much is being made of the enthusiasm Reyes brings to the clubhouse and the field. While there's a limit to how much that translates into actual wins, if these reports are accurate, Reyes stands to become as big a fan favorite as Lawrie and Joey Bats.
Macir Izturs/Emilio Bonifacio - the well know "only competition among batters in camp" meme is being played out hard. I started out, after the trade, assuming that Bonifacio would win the job, but the article soften mentioned that Izturus is rated a better defender and i'm moving to the view that the team might work betters with Izturus the primary 2B, and Bonifacio available to provide spot starts and flexibility all over the left side of the field. I don't think there's a wrong answer here.
Edwin Encarnacion - one of the things no one is writing about that's on my mind is how much EE is now considered the first baseman, as opposed to the DH. My guess is that he'll spend a lot of time their during ST and lay claim to the position, if for no other reason than the guy who's performing ought to get preference when it comes to being on the field (which every hitter prefers to being a DH) when all other things (health, defense, etc) are equal.
Adam Lind - famously put his foot in his mouth concerning the departed coaches. Chad Mottola, the new batting coach, is confident he can get Lind back to being productive. Most think the leash is pretty short. If things go poorly, you'll see an import before the break. If Jim Thome finds himself unemployed on April 1, don't be surprised if the Jays stay in contact with him as long as Lind's production is in doubt. David Cooper is, however, not breathing down his neck this spring. Cooper has serious back issues and his potential to ever be a regular major leaguer may be in doubt.
JP Arencibia - the only storyline here is his determination to be a viable option for catching RA Dickey (and thereby being in the Opening Day lineup. Of course, there's also the ongoing competition behind the plate among potential back-ups Josh Thole and the aging Henry Blanco. I still can't wrap my head around the idea that Blanco is the favorite here, unless Thole is still nursing some injury, but you have to file it under "the team knows more than I do."
The rotation - Dickey's knuclker is impressing already; Johnson is talking about how his improvement over the course of 2012 had to do with bringing back and refining his curve; Romero reports the injuries he had cleaned up over the winter to be feeling very good and hopefully his mental state is much improved,given he's no longer expected to carry the staff on his own shoulders; Mark Behrlie is being discussed more for the dog issue than anything else; and all is quite regarding Brandon Morrow - but let us pause for a sec and contemplate the times opposing teams will have to deal with his heat after having faced Dickey the night before.
Casey Janssen/Sergio Santos - the former is the presumptive closer, but going at a reduced speed while he recovers from minor off-season surgery. In theory this opens the door for Santos, who's reportedly fully healthy, but short relievers don't need much ST to be ready so it's a month too early for this speculation.
Other pitchers...
Dustin McGowan - had been throwing since December, experienced mild shoulder pain (which he blames on too-long long toss) - obviously I can't express optimism but i still have hope.
JA Happ - the theme remains that he's potentially ticketed for Buffalo, more on that in a sec.
Brad Lincoln - Like Happ, he has options and those may land him in the Buffalo rotation, but...
Darren Oliver - all quiet
Steve Delenbar - all discussion presumes he's set to be a key player in Toronto, even though he does have an option or two.
Esmil Rogers, Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jefress - all out of options and thus all assumed to have something of an edge in making the team. AA even mentioned at the SOTF meeting that rogers was assured a job on that basis. But today John Gibbons said that he would take the best team north, options aside.If that's true, all three of these will have to fight for their job. McGowan is out of options too and should he end the spring healthy, something has to give.
In theory, Happ, Lincoln, and younger guys like Chad Jenkins, Aaron Loup, and Evan Crawford would be part of such a competition. Some writers suggest that minor league free agent signings like Justin Germano and David Bush would also be candidates but I have a very hard time believing THAT.
Still, Gibbons' claim enlivens what is already probably the most interesting roster-construction discussion of the spring.
Thursday, 7 February 2013
Tick tock
Like you, I grow increasingly frustrated with the long delays between posts. I'm going to have to break away from my love for long elaborate high-content posts because they never get finished. I have, on my spreadsheet, most of the data for a mega-post featuring a player by player comparison of all the teams in the AL East. And yet, it seems sort of silly to do that much work demonstrating the Jays are the on-paper favorites when las Vegas has already told us as much.
So i may or may not ever get THAT post up, but in the mean time, Spring Training opens in less than a week and I'm going to have to find a rhythm reacting to the news of the day. Which should be much more frequent in the coming weeks. So rather than do a numbers post, let me wander through the virtual clubhouse in light of the rash of stories on the SotF event this week. (and yes, I know, 900 other Jays blogs have already plowed that ground in some fashion).
Item: Starting pitchers - As you've no doubt read, John Gibbons showed his cards on the rotation order, listing them Dickey > Morrow > Buehrle > Johnson > Romero. That's as solid a set as you will find. Dickey, as the defending Cy, enjoys a presumptive entitlement to the first spot, no matter how managers might pooh-pooh that idea. Morrow and Johnson are interchangeable, and going with the returning player instead of the import is smart, plus the hard-thrower who follows Dickey probably gets an edge vs the same team, and you might as well not give that to the guy who's playing for a mega deal (Johnson). Eleven times in the first half alone, Morrow will follow dickey against the same opponent.
Splitting up the hard-throwing righties with the finesse lefties is as "Baseball 101" as it gets, and given Romero's 2012, it would be hard to put him over Buehrle. That said, a lot of speculation revolves around Romero having put too much pressure on himself to carry the staff last year. The pressure will be completely off this year, in that regard, so don't be shocked if he has a huge rebound. also, as I've done the last two years, so say I again: like for Morrow to be the best pitcher on the team and a Cy contender.
Item: Bullpen - Janssen as the presumptive closer is only fair, but they say a bit more about Santos when the question is asked than I would like. I really really like Santos and am not worried on the health issue, but when you do as good as Janssen did you have proven you are up to the job. Don't mess with that. Listing those two and Oliver as the only locks makes sense to me...but why does Esmil Rogers keep making that list? AA always says "since he's out of options" BUT Brett Cecil and Jeremy Jefress are also out of options and they are not listed as likely locks. If options really do serve as major factors in who breaks camp with the Jays, then you have already accounted for six spots unless someone blows up well and truly. That would leave only one spot which you have to assume Delenbar is far ahead of the pack
on.
So. I'm going to pencil in Janssen > Santos > Oliver forthe 8th and 9th, Delenbar for the key 7th inning guy (Frasor's old job, really) and fill it out with Rogers, Jefresss, and Cecil, pending failure. I've a hunch that Cecil comes into his own as a poor man's Scott downs this year and goes on to have an impressive career. JA Happ and Brad Lincoln lead the Buffalo rotation and wait for a chance in Toronto. Followed by Chad Jenkins and some retreads. Pending, of course, the health of Dustin McGowan. Relief wise, the Jays are well stocked with options, having Aaron Loup, Evan Crawford, on the doorstep and a few others, besides those already mentioned, with some skills.
One of the noticeable things when it comes to comparing WAR totals between the AL East competitors is that you don't really know what to do with the WAR accumulated by guys like Happ that have been crowded off the roster.
Item: Catchers - The Jays acknowledge the existence of a competition between Henry Blanco and Josh Thole. Personally, short of a health issue I can't conceive of Blanco winning that but all the reports say he has the presumptive edge going in.
Item: Second - as Alex has previously noted, Izturus has the presumption as camp opens. Gibbons added that he's the one with the better Glove. I'm anxious to see Bonifacio in the lineup a lot. But I'm much more understanding on this point than i am the catcher question.
Item: Whither Colby Rasmus? John Gibbons articulated my own view - that Rasmus is on the verge of putting it all together. Like Romero, he probably thinks too much for his own good and now here he is surrounded by team-carrying talent all around the diamond. he doesn't HAVE to be a star and sometimes, that's just the environment where such a player blossoms. I wouldn't be at all shocked if he stepped up to the level of players Like Curtis Granderson, and he could be even better than that. Keep in mind he had an .823 OPS in the first half last year, and that's with a slow start. What remains is for him to put together a whole season as he did at his best.
And finally, for tonight, let me take a moment to acknowledge the elephant. YES, we will have to worry, for a while, about Bautista's hand. It MIGHT screw up his whole year. But before early season panic sets in, let's remember that last year, he was sitting on May 10, 2012, he was hitting .177 - and until his hand was hurt returned it around pretty darn nicely. So don't look for me to dwell on that possibility much.
With all that said, I'm ready to get this party started!
So i may or may not ever get THAT post up, but in the mean time, Spring Training opens in less than a week and I'm going to have to find a rhythm reacting to the news of the day. Which should be much more frequent in the coming weeks. So rather than do a numbers post, let me wander through the virtual clubhouse in light of the rash of stories on the SotF event this week. (and yes, I know, 900 other Jays blogs have already plowed that ground in some fashion).
Item: Starting pitchers - As you've no doubt read, John Gibbons showed his cards on the rotation order, listing them Dickey > Morrow > Buehrle > Johnson > Romero. That's as solid a set as you will find. Dickey, as the defending Cy, enjoys a presumptive entitlement to the first spot, no matter how managers might pooh-pooh that idea. Morrow and Johnson are interchangeable, and going with the returning player instead of the import is smart, plus the hard-thrower who follows Dickey probably gets an edge vs the same team, and you might as well not give that to the guy who's playing for a mega deal (Johnson). Eleven times in the first half alone, Morrow will follow dickey against the same opponent.
Splitting up the hard-throwing righties with the finesse lefties is as "Baseball 101" as it gets, and given Romero's 2012, it would be hard to put him over Buehrle. That said, a lot of speculation revolves around Romero having put too much pressure on himself to carry the staff last year. The pressure will be completely off this year, in that regard, so don't be shocked if he has a huge rebound. also, as I've done the last two years, so say I again: like for Morrow to be the best pitcher on the team and a Cy contender.
Item: Bullpen - Janssen as the presumptive closer is only fair, but they say a bit more about Santos when the question is asked than I would like. I really really like Santos and am not worried on the health issue, but when you do as good as Janssen did you have proven you are up to the job. Don't mess with that. Listing those two and Oliver as the only locks makes sense to me...but why does Esmil Rogers keep making that list? AA always says "since he's out of options" BUT Brett Cecil and Jeremy Jefress are also out of options and they are not listed as likely locks. If options really do serve as major factors in who breaks camp with the Jays, then you have already accounted for six spots unless someone blows up well and truly. That would leave only one spot which you have to assume Delenbar is far ahead of the pack
on.
So. I'm going to pencil in Janssen > Santos > Oliver forthe 8th and 9th, Delenbar for the key 7th inning guy (Frasor's old job, really) and fill it out with Rogers, Jefresss, and Cecil, pending failure. I've a hunch that Cecil comes into his own as a poor man's Scott downs this year and goes on to have an impressive career. JA Happ and Brad Lincoln lead the Buffalo rotation and wait for a chance in Toronto. Followed by Chad Jenkins and some retreads. Pending, of course, the health of Dustin McGowan. Relief wise, the Jays are well stocked with options, having Aaron Loup, Evan Crawford, on the doorstep and a few others, besides those already mentioned, with some skills.
One of the noticeable things when it comes to comparing WAR totals between the AL East competitors is that you don't really know what to do with the WAR accumulated by guys like Happ that have been crowded off the roster.
Item: Catchers - The Jays acknowledge the existence of a competition between Henry Blanco and Josh Thole. Personally, short of a health issue I can't conceive of Blanco winning that but all the reports say he has the presumptive edge going in.
Item: Second - as Alex has previously noted, Izturus has the presumption as camp opens. Gibbons added that he's the one with the better Glove. I'm anxious to see Bonifacio in the lineup a lot. But I'm much more understanding on this point than i am the catcher question.
Item: Whither Colby Rasmus? John Gibbons articulated my own view - that Rasmus is on the verge of putting it all together. Like Romero, he probably thinks too much for his own good and now here he is surrounded by team-carrying talent all around the diamond. he doesn't HAVE to be a star and sometimes, that's just the environment where such a player blossoms. I wouldn't be at all shocked if he stepped up to the level of players Like Curtis Granderson, and he could be even better than that. Keep in mind he had an .823 OPS in the first half last year, and that's with a slow start. What remains is for him to put together a whole season as he did at his best.
And finally, for tonight, let me take a moment to acknowledge the elephant. YES, we will have to worry, for a while, about Bautista's hand. It MIGHT screw up his whole year. But before early season panic sets in, let's remember that last year, he was sitting on May 10, 2012, he was hitting .177 - and until his hand was hurt returned it around pretty darn nicely. So don't look for me to dwell on that possibility much.
With all that said, I'm ready to get this party started!
Tuesday, 15 January 2013
Oliver, Odds and ends
I'm just going to take a moment to review some of the transactions, reports, interviews and rumors that have floated over the wire in the last month or so where I have some thought or comment.
NEW item: Darren Oliver WILL return for 2013 for his 20th season in pursuit of his first ring. Following items edited to reflect new info.
Item: Colby Rasmus avoids arbitration, signed for one year at $4.675 mil. That brings the total of guaranteed contracts to $112.575 million for 17 players, including Dustin McGowan.. There are three other players still arb eligible (Thole, Bonifacio, Happ) and my estimate is that they will combine to make about 7.5 million. We'll assume for the purpose of this exercise that McGowan will be on the DL, since we need one more hitter for the proper ratio. Among the 12 non-pitchers who can confidently be assumed to the major league roster, only two - Lawrie and Arencibia - are pre-arb. Among the pitchers, you have the rotation set and under contract, and potentially 3 pre-arb players - Delenbar, Cecil, and one from among Lincoln, Rogers (out of options) and Jefress (ditto) - filing out the bullpen. Five pre-arb players at no more than half a mil apiece adds another $2.5 mil to the total. Plus the unknown 13th hitter who will make at least half a mil.
NEW item the second: All arbitration cases settled. Thole signs for 2 years, 1.25 mil per; Bonifacio comes in at 2.6; Happ at 3.7 - for a total, in 2013, of $7.55 mil. See my estimate above.
s here's the latest revision:
Under contract: $120.125 (20 players out of 26 - given McGowan)
Six pre-arb spots: $3 mil at least
Three injured players who will be on 60 day DL (whom i neglected to include before): $1.5 mil (roughly)
That adds up to right around $124.625 million.
(subject to the potential salary of the unknown "13th hitter"
Item: The Oliver announcement likely puts an end to the whole "I wouldn't mind adding one more reliever" meme from Alex. In the highly unlikely event that it doesn't, i move they sign Brandon Lyon already. The market has been stone silent in terms of rumors about Brandon Lyon. He was here last year, pitched well here, apparently likes it, surely can see that he's dealing with a contender...and if the Jays are going to sign some veteran guy, I can't see a good argument for looking elsewhere.
Item: Henry Blanco? lest you be confused - Blanco is insurance. There's a reason his contract is non-guaranteed. He's a Plan B if Thole has injury issues (or JP for that matter) and that particularly in Spring Training. Odds are that he'll serve as a sort of player coach in the spring helping school JP and others in the fine art of catching the knuckler. Then he'll shuffle off to Buffalo and be ready in case of an in-season emergency. Yes technically he can walk away if they try to send him down, but the odds of a 41 year old catcher finding work on the first of April would not be promising.
Item: Minor league maneuvers and the Buffalo roster.While there are still likely more signings, waiver claims, and such like to come, a preliminary look won't hurt. We learned yesterday that Adam Loewen is back in the system and while I no longer harbor high hopes of his eventually making his way to a regular major league job, I still have a soft spot for him and his story. So with that in mind I'll look at the hitters in AAA since there's less maneuvering there anyway. So barring further acquisitions:
If Blanco accepts a demotion, he and Mike Nicaks are easily identifiable as the catching crew. Neither ofthe guys on the prospect list needs to be here yet. David Cooper, unless he takes Lind's job from him in the Spring, will be at 1B, Ryan Goins will certainly move up to take over at SS, and the rest of the infield will be populated with journeyman and filler, no better than Mike McCoy (who may be the default third baseman).. In the outfield, Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra own CF and RF respectively, while LF will be a competition between Keenen Bailli, Richardo Nanita, and Loewen, with one of those likely being the primary DH as well. Ryan Langerhans will surely make the team as a valuable backup as well.
Among the pitchers, the story is much more complex. Starting with the rotation, some assumptions are in order about who makes the cut for the Blue Jays.For the purpose of this exercise, I'm going to assume that in Oliver's absence, that Cecil (who's out of options) and JA Happ (who's not) are the bullpen lefties. There's a non-zero possibility that Happ is sent to Buffalo to stay stretched out in the rotation but he would be rightfully very unhappy about that. Beyond that, I assume Janssen, Santos, Delenbar, Lincoln, and Rogers (also out of options) make it in the absence of any additions. That means the Buffalo staff begins to shape up like this:
Starters - Chad Jenkins (will surely start in the minors no matter his major league future; Jeremy Jefress (in the unlikely event that he clears waivers, he's out of options too); John Stilson (speculative, he might go back to New Hampshire); Brad Lincoln (if he doesn't make the major league bullpen, he'd likely start in the minors just to provide an emergency alternative);David Bush, Greg Smith. Justin Germano and Ramon Ortiz are the fallbacks for Jefress departing or any other setback, as well as being bullpen candidates.
Relievers - prospects Evan Crawford and Aaron Loup, assuming they are not in Toronto, head this group. Sam Dyson might be here, or might get started at AA in April. Alan Farina has an outside shot. The balance will be made up from the following group, in rough order of quality: Tommy Hottovy, Mickey Storey, Chad Beck, Trystan Magnuson, Justin Germano (needed as an emergency starter at least) Rich Thompson,
That's 8-10 possibilities, other, less qualified IMO, sgniees include Niel Wagner, Alex Hinshaw, Juan Perez, Claudio Vargas, Mike Banaka, Bobby Korecky, and Buddy Carlyle. Some of the overflow will go to AA, a lot of it will be released. By necessity, there's no point in trying to project whether, in August, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and/or Luis Perez push some of these guys aside.
Item: Justin Jackson, pitcher. According to a tweet from the no-hit shortstop (nee center fielder) the player and team have decided he's never going to hit and they are going to see if he can learn to pitch. He's always had a heckuva arm so don't rule it out.
Item: World Baseball Classic. RA Dickey and JP Arencibia are on the U.S. squad and may not be the only ones. The should get valuable bonding time out of the experience. Brett Lawrie will play for the Canadian squad. Encarnacion and Jose Reyes will suit up for the Dominican. All this takes place in March so there will be some interesting adjustments necessary for the Blue Jays. One thing you can count on, guys like Coper and Gose will get a lot of playing time, and with Izturus at SS on many occasions, Bonifacio should get a lot of work too. We must hope that this team, which needs time to "gel" won't get off to a slower start than they would like to because of the disruption.
NEW item: Darren Oliver WILL return for 2013 for his 20th season in pursuit of his first ring. Following items edited to reflect new info.
Item: Colby Rasmus avoids arbitration, signed for one year at $4.675 mil. That brings the total of guaranteed contracts to $112.575 million for 17 players, including Dustin McGowan.. There are three other players still arb eligible (Thole, Bonifacio, Happ) and my estimate is that they will combine to make about 7.5 million. We'll assume for the purpose of this exercise that McGowan will be on the DL, since we need one more hitter for the proper ratio. Among the 12 non-pitchers who can confidently be assumed to the major league roster, only two - Lawrie and Arencibia - are pre-arb. Among the pitchers, you have the rotation set and under contract, and potentially 3 pre-arb players - Delenbar, Cecil, and one from among Lincoln, Rogers (out of options) and Jefress (ditto) - filing out the bullpen. Five pre-arb players at no more than half a mil apiece adds another $2.5 mil to the total. Plus the unknown 13th hitter who will make at least half a mil.
NEW item the second: All arbitration cases settled. Thole signs for 2 years, 1.25 mil per; Bonifacio comes in at 2.6; Happ at 3.7 - for a total, in 2013, of $7.55 mil. See my estimate above.
s here's the latest revision:
Under contract: $120.125 (20 players out of 26 - given McGowan)
Six pre-arb spots: $3 mil at least
Three injured players who will be on 60 day DL (whom i neglected to include before): $1.5 mil (roughly)
That adds up to right around $124.625 million.
(subject to the potential salary of the unknown "13th hitter"
Item: The Oliver announcement likely puts an end to the whole "I wouldn't mind adding one more reliever" meme from Alex. In the highly unlikely event that it doesn't, i move they sign Brandon Lyon already. The market has been stone silent in terms of rumors about Brandon Lyon. He was here last year, pitched well here, apparently likes it, surely can see that he's dealing with a contender...and if the Jays are going to sign some veteran guy, I can't see a good argument for looking elsewhere.
Item: Henry Blanco? lest you be confused - Blanco is insurance. There's a reason his contract is non-guaranteed. He's a Plan B if Thole has injury issues (or JP for that matter) and that particularly in Spring Training. Odds are that he'll serve as a sort of player coach in the spring helping school JP and others in the fine art of catching the knuckler. Then he'll shuffle off to Buffalo and be ready in case of an in-season emergency. Yes technically he can walk away if they try to send him down, but the odds of a 41 year old catcher finding work on the first of April would not be promising.
Item: Minor league maneuvers and the Buffalo roster.While there are still likely more signings, waiver claims, and such like to come, a preliminary look won't hurt. We learned yesterday that Adam Loewen is back in the system and while I no longer harbor high hopes of his eventually making his way to a regular major league job, I still have a soft spot for him and his story. So with that in mind I'll look at the hitters in AAA since there's less maneuvering there anyway. So barring further acquisitions:
If Blanco accepts a demotion, he and Mike Nicaks are easily identifiable as the catching crew. Neither ofthe guys on the prospect list needs to be here yet. David Cooper, unless he takes Lind's job from him in the Spring, will be at 1B, Ryan Goins will certainly move up to take over at SS, and the rest of the infield will be populated with journeyman and filler, no better than Mike McCoy (who may be the default third baseman).. In the outfield, Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra own CF and RF respectively, while LF will be a competition between Keenen Bailli, Richardo Nanita, and Loewen, with one of those likely being the primary DH as well. Ryan Langerhans will surely make the team as a valuable backup as well.
Among the pitchers, the story is much more complex. Starting with the rotation, some assumptions are in order about who makes the cut for the Blue Jays.For the purpose of this exercise, I'm going to assume that in Oliver's absence, that Cecil (who's out of options) and JA Happ (who's not) are the bullpen lefties. There's a non-zero possibility that Happ is sent to Buffalo to stay stretched out in the rotation but he would be rightfully very unhappy about that. Beyond that, I assume Janssen, Santos, Delenbar, Lincoln, and Rogers (also out of options) make it in the absence of any additions. That means the Buffalo staff begins to shape up like this:
Starters - Chad Jenkins (will surely start in the minors no matter his major league future; Jeremy Jefress (in the unlikely event that he clears waivers, he's out of options too); John Stilson (speculative, he might go back to New Hampshire); Brad Lincoln (if he doesn't make the major league bullpen, he'd likely start in the minors just to provide an emergency alternative);David Bush, Greg Smith. Justin Germano and Ramon Ortiz are the fallbacks for Jefress departing or any other setback, as well as being bullpen candidates.
Relievers - prospects Evan Crawford and Aaron Loup, assuming they are not in Toronto, head this group. Sam Dyson might be here, or might get started at AA in April. Alan Farina has an outside shot. The balance will be made up from the following group, in rough order of quality: Tommy Hottovy, Mickey Storey, Chad Beck, Trystan Magnuson, Justin Germano (needed as an emergency starter at least) Rich Thompson,
That's 8-10 possibilities, other, less qualified IMO, sgniees include Niel Wagner, Alex Hinshaw, Juan Perez, Claudio Vargas, Mike Banaka, Bobby Korecky, and Buddy Carlyle. Some of the overflow will go to AA, a lot of it will be released. By necessity, there's no point in trying to project whether, in August, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and/or Luis Perez push some of these guys aside.
Item: Justin Jackson, pitcher. According to a tweet from the no-hit shortstop (nee center fielder) the player and team have decided he's never going to hit and they are going to see if he can learn to pitch. He's always had a heckuva arm so don't rule it out.
Item: World Baseball Classic. RA Dickey and JP Arencibia are on the U.S. squad and may not be the only ones. The should get valuable bonding time out of the experience. Brett Lawrie will play for the Canadian squad. Encarnacion and Jose Reyes will suit up for the Dominican. All this takes place in March so there will be some interesting adjustments necessary for the Blue Jays. One thing you can count on, guys like Coper and Gose will get a lot of playing time, and with Izturus at SS on many occasions, Bonifacio should get a lot of work too. We must hope that this team, which needs time to "gel" won't get off to a slower start than they would like to because of the disruption.
Saturday, 12 January 2013
2013 Top 50 Prospect List
After almost a month of delay, it's finally here! The Southpaw Top 50 Prospect list has arrived.
This list is coming over two months later in the off season than last year, but given all of Alex's dealings, it's probably a good thing. In 2011 I listed 60 "names to know" in order to include not just prospects in the normal sense (given that no team has remotely 60 legit prospects) but also players from whom a sleeper or two may emerge - guys to watch for the die-hard system-watcher might want to keep an eye on. Last year I switched to the more traditional reverse listing, and expanded the list to 100 names over 4 entries.
But I simply don't have time for that much work this time (as the delay in finishing this post attests) so I'm going to revert to fewer names, listed in "count down" fashion, and squeezed into one post. The date listed is an ETA, all things being equal (i.e. no trade, injury, or etc changes the plan).
Note that as the information stream never stops, so too the adjustments to my viewpoint continue and don't be surprised if, for instance, a couple of outfielders are in a different order here than they were on the positional rankings. In at least one case, there's a specific reason for that happening.
50. DJ Thon (SS) - 2017 - clinging to the bottom rung based on pre-draft rep. Needs to make a move.
49. Marcus Knecht (LF) - 2016 - needs to prove 2011 was the real him, and not 2012
48. Alan Farina (RHRP) - 2014 - has age and experience on his side, now well removed from TJ surgery, he could come quickly. Or he could fade away. If he isn't least in NH to start the season it's a bad sign. He's too old for lower levels to mean anything.
47. Gabriel Cenas (3B) - 2018 - Still very young and very raw, still in possession of the tools that got him that bonus check.
46. Sean Ochinko (C) - 2014 - As noted, similar circumstances to Yan Gomes, "Useful" is pretty much the ceiling he can aspire to.
45. Mark Biggs (RHSP) - 2017/18 - considered a steal when drafted,stat sample far too small to evaluate.
44. Andrew Burns (SS) - 2016 - bit of a dark horse surprise, before being injured, a tic old for the level to make me a true believer, if he'd stayed healthy and moved up to Dunedin successfully he might be higher on the list.
43. Javiar Avendano (RHP) - 2018 - the list of players taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft who turned out to be significant major league contributors is virtually non-existent. History tells us that the odds are VERY great that he's one of those guys who spanks the opposition at the lower levels and is exposed as he moves up. Nevertheless, the results he posted in 2012 must be noted. My guess is that if he makes the majors at all, it will be as a competent middle reliever.
42. Taylor Cole (RHP) - 2017 - very difficult to project this guy. He showed solid projectable velocity in high school and was a well regarded prospect. but he's pitching now after a two year Mormon mission in which he didn't touch a baseball at all. While he had considerable success in 2012 (indicated quality pitchability) scouting reports suggest the velocity was not high enough to succeed at higher levels. If the velocity recovers, he has the chance to jump way up this list. If not, he'll fade pretty quickly as he advances through the system.
41. Ryan Schimpf (2b) - 2015 - Formerly marginal guy who was drafted in the fifth round in 2009, Schimpf broke out with a big year in 2012. He increased both his power and his on-base results (in both areas) in a pretty dramatic fashion. I may still be under-rating him, if you take his 2012 as a legitimate example of growth then you could argue for a spot 20 points higher but I want to see him do it again. After all, he played most of the year in Dunedin at 24, and that's old for that level.
40 Gustovo Pierre (3B) - 2017 - Pierre's prospect status was in serious decline after 2011. He was an error machine at SS, along with being a mess at the plate in Lansing and being demoted to rookie ball when the short-season started. At Bluefiled he leveled off offensively but the Jays concluded that a position change was in order. in 2012, playing 3B, he did much better in the field and had almost identical stats at Lansing to those he'd put up in Bluefield in 2011. He's still very much a work in progress but the physical gifts still exist and his coaches testify that he took a huge step forward last year. He's still on the margins, but there's hope again.
39 Matt Wright (LHRP) - 2013 - Statistically, it's hard to find ANY thing to not like about Matt Wright. As a lefty who was not wildly too old for his level (a year at most) with those numbers, I was certain he'd be added to the Jays 40 man roster or lost in the Rule 5 draft. Neither happened, so I'm forced to conclude that maybe the scouts are seeing something that doesn't come across on the stat page. Enthusiasm somewhat tempered, but based on what I know, I still like him.
38. Evan Crawford (LHRP) - 2012 -A year ago Crawford was a bit of a rising star. He'd had a fine 2011 and a great AFL performance and was mentioned by name by Anthpoulos as a coming attraction and that buzz carried right on through Spring Training. Getting his chance early, Crawford had a spot of mixed results in a tiny sample - and illustrates well how stats can be deceiving particularly for relievers. He made 10 appearances and delivered a shutout appearance in 7 of them - but he gave up 2 runs each in the other three so his ERA is high. Likewise, in 8 of those he walked none...but in one of them he walked 3 so it looks on the totals as if control was an issue but generally it was not. Still, whether it was the major league experience, or the adverse Las Vegas conditions, his minor league work wasn't impressive in total either. Don't discount him though. While he's seemingly been passed by Aaron Loup, he's still very much in the picture for an in-season recall and if Darren Oliver follows through on retirement, he'll have a chance to make the roster.
37. Daniel Barnes (RHRP) - 2015 -Speaking of statistical success, few have it in spades more than Danny Barnes. 12.5 K/9 and a mere 2.9 BB/9 (along with a 2.13 ERA) over his minor league career so far speak for themselves. Barnes will play at AA as a 23 year old next season which is perfectly respectable and if his success continues, he'll be on a lot more radars.
36. Griffin Murphy (LHP) - 2017 -And here's the unusual case.Relievers, as a general rule, don't ever get very high on my list because their contribution to the team even if they are very good is considerable less than a very good starter or position player. If I grade Murphy as a reliever, which was his role for almost all of 2012, then he ought be behind Wright, at least, as he's further away ad did not statistically justify being ranked ahead of the three names just above. He is at this position specifically because the Jays are not saying if he will get back to starting after he got his feet under him in 2012. if he does, he makes sense at this point and if he remains in relief this ranking is too high.
35. Wilfri Aleton (LHSP) - 2020 - I know absolutely nothing about him beyond the scouting report published with news of the signing (which you will find linked under his name). Based on that report, and the bonus he got paid, I think it's worth recognizing him n this list.
34. Ryan Goins (SS) - 2014 -I'll be honest with you - this guy has never been on my radar. I always figured that if everything went JUST right he might be a competent reserve infielder for a few years, and more likely he's gonna have a career a lot like Mike McCoy's. But he's generated some praise with his play in 2012 and maybe there's something there I'm not seeing.
33. Kellen Sweeney (3B) - 2017 -Can attribute this ranking almost entirely to the apparent turnaround in his production in the second half of last season (he posted a .348 OPS after July 31). if he fails to sustain that next year it's going to be hard to call him a prospect anymore.
32. Tom Robson (RHSP) - 2018 -Statistically we know basically nothing as Robson only got three professional outings in 2012. Pre-draft reports were pleasing though and fans of Canadian content are no doubt hoping for especially big things.
31. Jesus Gonzalez (OF) -2019 -Gonzalez is a big raw RF with a massive arm (comparable to Moises Sierra or Jose Bautista in that department). Playing in the GCL at 17 reflected the team's confidence in his abilities, but he looked very much like a kid playing in the GCL at 17. Give him a few years before you reach any conclusions.
30. Jario Labourt (LHSP) - 2019- Signed in the summer of 2010, Labourt is a 6'4" 204 pound lefty who has stuff but still needs polish, particularly in the command and control department.
29.Jacob Anderson (RF) - 2018 -Anderson was on fire for the 37 games he played in the GCL in 2011 but his 2012 was ugly across the board. He will likely repeat Bluefield and hope to regroup and earn a mid-season promotion.
28. Tyler Gonzoles (RHP) - 2018 - Above average fastball and excellent slider - and also a below average change-up and worrisome mechanics. Has a high ceiling as a starter if he can correct the problems, and a solid future as a power reliever if he can't. But they are not minor problems so the enthusiasm is somewhat tempered. Still, after an awful start to his pro career, he missed some time and came back with much better results. on the other-other hand, both samples were exceedingly tiny so it's a wait and see thing at this point.
27. Dalton Pompey (CF) - 2017 -The Missisauga native missed a significant portion of the season to injury yet still suited up for three different teams. in his 20 games played. Still, when he did play his stats were notably improved from his previous work. The scouts have been raving about this guy for a couple of years and his performance might be catching up to the clippings. Watch him for a potential break-out this year if he can stay on the field.
26. Deck McGuire (RHSP) - 2014 -The mystery of McGuire has an interesting parallel, which I've explained before but I will repeat ICYMI: The top line of stats is McGuire's 2012, playing at AA as a 23 year old, the bottom line is another guy you may have heard of, playing at AA as a 23 year old (the latter did get 7 AAA starts that year)-
5.88 ERA, 1.556 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 10.1 H/9, 1.4 Hr/9, 144 IP
4.96 ERA, 1.595 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 10.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 121.2 IP
The latter? Ricky Romero. His problems were said to be confidence issues, trying too hard to be perfect, and taking setbacks too hard - strikingly similar to the reports about McGuire's struggles in 2012. (and about Romero in 2012 in some respects). That's not to say McGuire will turn it around in the same fashion, and he certainly doesn't have Romero's ceiling IMO,. but it would be unwise to just write him off in an over-reaction to a very ugly season.
25. Chad Jenkins (RHP) - 2012-Jenkins is almost a case in point. He struggled through the first half of 2012, then found an adjustment that worked and by August found himself in the major league bullpen. I'm not a believer that he's going to be a key guy, his ratios are still nothing to write home about, but in May you would have sworn he was going nowhere at all last year.
24. Sam Dyson (RHRP) - 2013 -I confess a weakness for Dyson, and one that existed before John Farrel lauded him as one of the best arms in the system. It's worth remembering that 2012 was his first professional season in which he actually took the field. I'm worried about his ratios a bit, even though he's a notorious ground-ball pitcher (a good thing) I'd like to see the K's be higher (and yes, I'm more forgiving of his deficiencies in that area than I am of Jenkins for reasons I can't fully explain). There's a strong possibility that Dyson pushes his way into the Buffalo bullpen (despite a raft of minor league free-agent veterans underfoot) and I look for him to polish his game and be ready for the majors when an opening arises.
23. Yeyfry Del Rosario (RHSP) - 2018 -Labourt and Del Rosario were signed in the same class, but YDR got off to a better start stateside. He is a 6'2" RHSP who sports a n excellent ERA, a great WHIP nd a most impressive K/BB ratio among his2011 stats in the GCL. Lower profile than many of the other pitching prospects you've heard of but definitely someone to watch.
22. Chris Hawkins (LF) - 2016 -Other than Deck McGuire, possibly no Jays prospect fell more in my estimation than Chris Hawkins. He's a left-fielder who's power disappeared and has only okay speed. Nothing abut this guy excites me. He might yet be an okay major leaguer in the mold of, say, an Endy Chavez type with the bat, but such guys survive on defensive reputations - I'm not optimistic.
21. Kevin Pillar (CF) - late 2014 -Reed Johnson comes again! Seriously, that's pretty much the very best description of Pillar I can give you, except that Johnson has marginally more power and Pillar seems to be a marginally better runner.
20. Mitch Nay (3B) - 2018 -Injury prevented him from playing any professional game in 2012. Ranking based solely on pre-draft praise and post draft commentary on the selection. Might easily be a real sleeper for next year's list.
19. Dawel Lugo (SS) -2018 -excellent defender at SS, still uncertainty about the offense. VERY young and raw but the scouts like him a good bit.
18. Matt Dean (3B) -2017 -Really highly regarded coming into the draft, but considered unsignable. Thus the relatively low choice, but when he was signed he was labeled a huge steal in some quarters. Why am I talking about this again instead of his season? Because he mostly sucked this year (though not remotely as bad as, say, Anderson). I'm biased maybe but - mulligan. But he needs to begin pulling it together soon.
17. Dwight Smith (CF) - 2017 -This is based pretty much on positive scouting. I'm still waiting on Smith to make a believer out of me. I'm still half-way expecting Pillar to be a better player overall.
16. Chase DeJong (RHSP) - 2017 -Kind of the flip side of Tyler Gonzales. Highly regarded out of the draft, posted a tiny sample BUT in this case the results were excellent. Still, be a bit cautious until the sample size increases.
15. Adonys Cardona (RHSP) - 2017 -Cardona lost a good chunk of 2012 to the DL and the sample size (eight appearances) is just too small. On the surface it looked as if he suffered a setback from his (also tiny) 2011 line. But the ratios are not notably worse except that the walk rate ticked up and, of course, a higher rate of earned runs. I don't think we've really seen what his highly regarded kid can do yet.
14. Franklin Barreto (SS/CF) - 2018 -Praised as the most advanced hitter and best all around position player in this year's crop of international free agents, it was quite the coup for the Jays to land Barreto. He won't be even 17 until Spring Training and he's younger than most players who will be drafted out of high school in 2014. so he's a LONG way away. Barreto is only 5'9" and scouts don't see a lot of physical projection, and some of them suggest that it's pretty rare to be a top shelf MLB SS at that size. It's far too early to rule the position out, though, and the Jays will surely give him every chance to prove his worth at the position. Scouts, though, generally opine that either 2B or CF is where he'll make his name. Also, he's call "a legitimate 70" when it comes to speed, consistent with the Jays new obsession with burners.
13. Santiago Nessy (C) - 2017 -Nessy is a big strong catcher who was signed to a respectable bonus as an international free agent and is still only 20 years old. He's made steady, unspectacular progress to this point but he's projected to have more bat than he's shown on the field. he's also rated as a quality above-average defender. The Jays will certainly take things very slowly with Nessy unless he explodes offensively. It would be quite a surprise to see him make a significant major league appearance before 2017.
12. Christian Lopes (2B) - 2016 - Lopes was a 2011 draftee who began his professional career in Bluefield. He came into the draft lauded as a very polished hitter for a high school player and while he took a few weeks to get really up to speed, he got better as the season wore on and the Jays wisely promoted him to Vancouver at the end of the year in order to experience the playoff atmosphere. He only had 10 games at the higher level but they should serve him well in 2013. I hold him in such high regard that I make him a sleeper choice to break camp with Lansing, but given the teams recent conservatism with promotions it would not be a slight if they held him back for a half season or so at Vancouver. Lopes is the sort of guy who, I think, will come fast if he's as successful as his skills would indicate and he might be ready to take a crack at the Jays 2B job by the time Izturus' contract expires.
11. John Stilson (RHSP) - late 2013 - Like Sam Dyson, 2012 was Stilson's first full season as a pro. Like Dyson, the Jays were able to draft him because of injuries, Like Dyson, there are doubts he can remain a starter deep into a major league career. But Stilson has a better arsenal and the Jays had him play the season as a starter until late in the year when he was shifted to the pen in respect of his innings limit. Just over half his innings came in Dunedin and they were high quality, the rest came at AA and they were much more respectable than the final line would have you believe. Stilson hit the DL near the end of July, in the last two start before that happened when he was possibly feeling the effects of that distress (quite possibly simple fatigue) he threw 7 innings and allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits. In the previous 7 AA starts he posted an ERA of 3.38
After he came off the DL on August 15, he was shifted to the bullpen and made eight appearances, five of which he w3orked without allowing an earned run and in a sixth he allowed only one. In the last week of the season he made four appearances, three six innings and gave up 7 earned runs - four of them in a single 1 inning outing. Without that one inning, his AA ERA falls by 2/3 of a run. On the whole, I would argue Stilson had a very successful season (he was ranked in the Blue Jays top 10 prospects by BA, and that BEFORE the big trades) which was marred by two bad weeks. I consider him a legitimate candidate to make the rotation in Buffalo.
10. Anthony Alford (OF) - 2018 -On the list of outfielders, I didn't rank Alford because other than pretty much sucking as a freshman quarterback, there was little indication his football days were numbered. But After the miserable season came to an end Alford got into an on-campus fight that resulted in legal charges which are still pending, and three weeks ago Alford was granted his release by the University of Southern Mississippi. There were rumors, so far unfulfilled, that he'd be moving on to Ole Miss but credible reports indicate the Rebels' interest is guarded. Apparently Alford's baseball contract specifies he has up to two years to pick one sport and cut the other one loose. At this point the major thing standing between Alford and being a very good baseball prospect is not so much his legal issues but his ego, which keeps telling him he can be a football star.
Most observers conclude he can be a pretty good football player - though not at quarterback - or an outstanding baseball prospect and he'd be wise to play to his talents. If he does, this ranking is justified, if not too low. If he persists in playing football, he subjects himself to considerable risk of damaging his baseball future beyond repair and in that case I'd not put him even in the top 20.
9. Alberto Tirado (RHSP) - 2018 - signed in 2011, he logged his first professional game appearances in 2012. While Del Rosario actually had a slightly better statistical results, the scouts love Tirado, and at 6'2" 177, he has room to add muscle and even more velocity to his already impressive fastball (94, 95 deep into the game).
8. AJ Jiminez (C) - 2015 - The path to the majors for Jimenez cleared up considerably this winter. But that doesn't mean he doesn't still have work to do. He'll come to ST recovering from TJ surgery but that will obviously have a lesser impact on his performance than it wold for a pitcher. He did, however, miss most of his AA season and he'll need to repeat there. Barring a break out performance you should assume the Jays would see little reason to consider him fora permanent major league spot before 2015.
7. Matt Smoral (LHSP) - 2017 - There's a tier break between the foregoing guys and this level. Every one of the top 7 guys is a flat out stud in some measure. Reflective of the difficulty I had sorting out the top of the list for the LHSP list, you find all those guys bunched together on this list. Smoral is a 6'8" power lefty who draws some comparisons to Randy Johnson. He's yet to throw a professional inning due to a foot injury in his senior year (which is the only reason the Jays had the chance to draft him) and so data is insufficient but this is a guy who could theoretically challenge for #1 a year from now.
5 (tie). Sean Nolin (LHSP) - 2014 - The GM has spoken of Nolin as being on the cusp of the majors. With the added SP depth and talent the team has added, it would take things going pretty horribly wrong for Nolin to get a significant number of starts in the majors in 2013, but that's not a disrespect towards his talent. The team can afford to let him try to dominate AA for at least half a season, if not more, before promoting him to Buffalo. It's that proximity, along with his on-field accomplishments, that pushes him so high on this list. If the Jays decide they don't see a spot in the rotation for him due to crowding, he may well end up a very good LH reliever in 2014.
5. Daniel Norris (LHSP) - 2017 - Pretty much impossible for me to choose between he and Nolin. In terms of pre-draft scouting and projected ceiling, you have to go Norris. If you look at proximity to the majors and success at higher (relatively speaking) levels, then Nolin is an easy choice. This year's list gives you a pretty good insight into the ranking philosophy of whatever publication produced the list you are reading. If you see someone rate Nolin higher (Baseball Prospectus would have him #2 now, and Norris #5) look at probability of success while those who go with Norris (MLB.com has him #2 and Nolin all the way down at #14) look at ultimate ceiling. Me? I try to strike a balance and thus, I have the tied.
4. DJ Davis (CF) - 2018 - the name that's begun to come up when discussing Davis is Kenny Lofton. This is reflective of his excellent speed, quality routes, and below-average arm. The statistical sample is small yet and inconclusive, but the scouting that was published after the season was universally positive. If Davis' ceiling is indeed Lofton-like I'm sure the Blue Jays are quite excited by that.
3. Marcus Stroman (RHP) - 2014 - This rankling reflects the belief that the team will take advantage of their depth and take the time to polish him as a starter rather than taking the knee-jerk "he's too small" road and shuttling him off to short relief. Relief pitchers, even the late inning studs, are seldom enough of a difference maker to justify a top-5 ranking. Stroman doesn't get the Tom Gordon comps for nothing, and it's certainly possible that the right confluence of events would put him into some important innings late this year. But my presumption is that when he comes off his suspension he'll spend the rest of the first half (at that level) at Dunedin and the second half in AA working as a starter.
2. Roberto Osuna (RHSP) - late 2016 - It is not outside the realm of possibility that this kid could be #1 a year from now. As with any prospect, he could certainly regress but I don't think that the majority of observers yet appreciate just how remarkable this guy could be. While he's not the same type of pitcher, necessarily, I get a vibe off this guy that reminds me of Gooden or Valenzuala in terms of exploding into the spotlight at a relatively young age.
1. Aaron Sanchez (RHRP) - second half of 2015 - After the two big trades, Sanchez stands pretty much unchallenged as the top guy in the system. He's the one Blue Jays prospect left who is pretty much a consensus top 50 prospect in the majors and that's a pretty impressive feat for a guy who's still not hit High-A ball yet. The Jays can afford to be patient with him and my ETA reflects that, more heavily than what his actual potential might give him the ability to do.
In conclusion, for now, it's also worth mentioning the guys who are not yet established major leaguers - prospects in reality - but have lost their eligibility for this list. These would include:
Drew Hutchison - should, with a normal recovery curve, make a September appearance or three and be in line to compete for the staff next spring.
Kyle Drabek - Ditto, but with enough stumbles to be a darker horse for the 2014 staff.
Aaron Loup - His chances of breaking camp with the major league squad get exponentially better if Darren Oliver follows through on his retirement plans. The Jays will face the dilemma of either going with one lefty in the pen (and that most likely Brett Cecil) or losing someone to waivers who's out of options (see below) in order to keep a second lefty, who will - as long as Luis Perez is recovering from injury - most likely either be Loup, Evan Crawford, or JA Happ (barring a spring surprise, or an injury)and there's a good argument for keeping Happ stretched out in Buffalo (as much as he will loath that idea).
Jeremy Jefress - has seen major league action in each of the last three seasons but still only has just under 39 big league innings. Out of options, if he doesn't make the cut he has to clear waivers.
Among the hitters, the story is really Anthony Gose. He'll polish his game at AAA but if any relatively long term opening in the majors arises he'll get a call to "come a runnin'." There's also Moises Sierra who's not the prospect Gose is but may well make an appearance if circumstances work in hisfavor.
Sorry for the long delay, My work schedule went from ~ 15 hours a week to over twice that at the beginning of December and I'm struggling to integrate my proclivity for wordiness with my other obligations.
This list is coming over two months later in the off season than last year, but given all of Alex's dealings, it's probably a good thing. In 2011 I listed 60 "names to know" in order to include not just prospects in the normal sense (given that no team has remotely 60 legit prospects) but also players from whom a sleeper or two may emerge - guys to watch for the die-hard system-watcher might want to keep an eye on. Last year I switched to the more traditional reverse listing, and expanded the list to 100 names over 4 entries.
But I simply don't have time for that much work this time (as the delay in finishing this post attests) so I'm going to revert to fewer names, listed in "count down" fashion, and squeezed into one post. The date listed is an ETA, all things being equal (i.e. no trade, injury, or etc changes the plan).
Note that as the information stream never stops, so too the adjustments to my viewpoint continue and don't be surprised if, for instance, a couple of outfielders are in a different order here than they were on the positional rankings. In at least one case, there's a specific reason for that happening.
50. DJ Thon (SS) - 2017 - clinging to the bottom rung based on pre-draft rep. Needs to make a move.
49. Marcus Knecht (LF) - 2016 - needs to prove 2011 was the real him, and not 2012
48. Alan Farina (RHRP) - 2014 - has age and experience on his side, now well removed from TJ surgery, he could come quickly. Or he could fade away. If he isn't least in NH to start the season it's a bad sign. He's too old for lower levels to mean anything.
47. Gabriel Cenas (3B) - 2018 - Still very young and very raw, still in possession of the tools that got him that bonus check.
46. Sean Ochinko (C) - 2014 - As noted, similar circumstances to Yan Gomes, "Useful" is pretty much the ceiling he can aspire to.
45. Mark Biggs (RHSP) - 2017/18 - considered a steal when drafted,stat sample far too small to evaluate.
44. Andrew Burns (SS) - 2016 - bit of a dark horse surprise, before being injured, a tic old for the level to make me a true believer, if he'd stayed healthy and moved up to Dunedin successfully he might be higher on the list.
43. Javiar Avendano (RHP) - 2018 - the list of players taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft who turned out to be significant major league contributors is virtually non-existent. History tells us that the odds are VERY great that he's one of those guys who spanks the opposition at the lower levels and is exposed as he moves up. Nevertheless, the results he posted in 2012 must be noted. My guess is that if he makes the majors at all, it will be as a competent middle reliever.
42. Taylor Cole (RHP) - 2017 - very difficult to project this guy. He showed solid projectable velocity in high school and was a well regarded prospect. but he's pitching now after a two year Mormon mission in which he didn't touch a baseball at all. While he had considerable success in 2012 (indicated quality pitchability) scouting reports suggest the velocity was not high enough to succeed at higher levels. If the velocity recovers, he has the chance to jump way up this list. If not, he'll fade pretty quickly as he advances through the system.
41. Ryan Schimpf (2b) - 2015 - Formerly marginal guy who was drafted in the fifth round in 2009, Schimpf broke out with a big year in 2012. He increased both his power and his on-base results (in both areas) in a pretty dramatic fashion. I may still be under-rating him, if you take his 2012 as a legitimate example of growth then you could argue for a spot 20 points higher but I want to see him do it again. After all, he played most of the year in Dunedin at 24, and that's old for that level.
40 Gustovo Pierre (3B) - 2017 - Pierre's prospect status was in serious decline after 2011. He was an error machine at SS, along with being a mess at the plate in Lansing and being demoted to rookie ball when the short-season started. At Bluefiled he leveled off offensively but the Jays concluded that a position change was in order. in 2012, playing 3B, he did much better in the field and had almost identical stats at Lansing to those he'd put up in Bluefield in 2011. He's still very much a work in progress but the physical gifts still exist and his coaches testify that he took a huge step forward last year. He's still on the margins, but there's hope again.
39 Matt Wright (LHRP) - 2013 - Statistically, it's hard to find ANY thing to not like about Matt Wright. As a lefty who was not wildly too old for his level (a year at most) with those numbers, I was certain he'd be added to the Jays 40 man roster or lost in the Rule 5 draft. Neither happened, so I'm forced to conclude that maybe the scouts are seeing something that doesn't come across on the stat page. Enthusiasm somewhat tempered, but based on what I know, I still like him.
38. Evan Crawford (LHRP) - 2012 -A year ago Crawford was a bit of a rising star. He'd had a fine 2011 and a great AFL performance and was mentioned by name by Anthpoulos as a coming attraction and that buzz carried right on through Spring Training. Getting his chance early, Crawford had a spot of mixed results in a tiny sample - and illustrates well how stats can be deceiving particularly for relievers. He made 10 appearances and delivered a shutout appearance in 7 of them - but he gave up 2 runs each in the other three so his ERA is high. Likewise, in 8 of those he walked none...but in one of them he walked 3 so it looks on the totals as if control was an issue but generally it was not. Still, whether it was the major league experience, or the adverse Las Vegas conditions, his minor league work wasn't impressive in total either. Don't discount him though. While he's seemingly been passed by Aaron Loup, he's still very much in the picture for an in-season recall and if Darren Oliver follows through on retirement, he'll have a chance to make the roster.
37. Daniel Barnes (RHRP) - 2015 -Speaking of statistical success, few have it in spades more than Danny Barnes. 12.5 K/9 and a mere 2.9 BB/9 (along with a 2.13 ERA) over his minor league career so far speak for themselves. Barnes will play at AA as a 23 year old next season which is perfectly respectable and if his success continues, he'll be on a lot more radars.
36. Griffin Murphy (LHP) - 2017 -And here's the unusual case.Relievers, as a general rule, don't ever get very high on my list because their contribution to the team even if they are very good is considerable less than a very good starter or position player. If I grade Murphy as a reliever, which was his role for almost all of 2012, then he ought be behind Wright, at least, as he's further away ad did not statistically justify being ranked ahead of the three names just above. He is at this position specifically because the Jays are not saying if he will get back to starting after he got his feet under him in 2012. if he does, he makes sense at this point and if he remains in relief this ranking is too high.
35. Wilfri Aleton (LHSP) - 2020 - I know absolutely nothing about him beyond the scouting report published with news of the signing (which you will find linked under his name). Based on that report, and the bonus he got paid, I think it's worth recognizing him n this list.
34. Ryan Goins (SS) - 2014 -I'll be honest with you - this guy has never been on my radar. I always figured that if everything went JUST right he might be a competent reserve infielder for a few years, and more likely he's gonna have a career a lot like Mike McCoy's. But he's generated some praise with his play in 2012 and maybe there's something there I'm not seeing.
33. Kellen Sweeney (3B) - 2017 -Can attribute this ranking almost entirely to the apparent turnaround in his production in the second half of last season (he posted a .348 OPS after July 31). if he fails to sustain that next year it's going to be hard to call him a prospect anymore.
32. Tom Robson (RHSP) - 2018 -Statistically we know basically nothing as Robson only got three professional outings in 2012. Pre-draft reports were pleasing though and fans of Canadian content are no doubt hoping for especially big things.
31. Jesus Gonzalez (OF) -2019 -Gonzalez is a big raw RF with a massive arm (comparable to Moises Sierra or Jose Bautista in that department). Playing in the GCL at 17 reflected the team's confidence in his abilities, but he looked very much like a kid playing in the GCL at 17. Give him a few years before you reach any conclusions.
30. Jario Labourt (LHSP) - 2019- Signed in the summer of 2010, Labourt is a 6'4" 204 pound lefty who has stuff but still needs polish, particularly in the command and control department.
29.Jacob Anderson (RF) - 2018 -Anderson was on fire for the 37 games he played in the GCL in 2011 but his 2012 was ugly across the board. He will likely repeat Bluefield and hope to regroup and earn a mid-season promotion.
28. Tyler Gonzoles (RHP) - 2018 - Above average fastball and excellent slider - and also a below average change-up and worrisome mechanics. Has a high ceiling as a starter if he can correct the problems, and a solid future as a power reliever if he can't. But they are not minor problems so the enthusiasm is somewhat tempered. Still, after an awful start to his pro career, he missed some time and came back with much better results. on the other-other hand, both samples were exceedingly tiny so it's a wait and see thing at this point.
27. Dalton Pompey (CF) - 2017 -The Missisauga native missed a significant portion of the season to injury yet still suited up for three different teams. in his 20 games played. Still, when he did play his stats were notably improved from his previous work. The scouts have been raving about this guy for a couple of years and his performance might be catching up to the clippings. Watch him for a potential break-out this year if he can stay on the field.
26. Deck McGuire (RHSP) - 2014 -The mystery of McGuire has an interesting parallel, which I've explained before but I will repeat ICYMI: The top line of stats is McGuire's 2012, playing at AA as a 23 year old, the bottom line is another guy you may have heard of, playing at AA as a 23 year old (the latter did get 7 AAA starts that year)-
5.88 ERA, 1.556 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 10.1 H/9, 1.4 Hr/9, 144 IP
4.96 ERA, 1.595 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 10.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 121.2 IP
The latter? Ricky Romero. His problems were said to be confidence issues, trying too hard to be perfect, and taking setbacks too hard - strikingly similar to the reports about McGuire's struggles in 2012. (and about Romero in 2012 in some respects). That's not to say McGuire will turn it around in the same fashion, and he certainly doesn't have Romero's ceiling IMO,. but it would be unwise to just write him off in an over-reaction to a very ugly season.
25. Chad Jenkins (RHP) - 2012-Jenkins is almost a case in point. He struggled through the first half of 2012, then found an adjustment that worked and by August found himself in the major league bullpen. I'm not a believer that he's going to be a key guy, his ratios are still nothing to write home about, but in May you would have sworn he was going nowhere at all last year.
24. Sam Dyson (RHRP) - 2013 -I confess a weakness for Dyson, and one that existed before John Farrel lauded him as one of the best arms in the system. It's worth remembering that 2012 was his first professional season in which he actually took the field. I'm worried about his ratios a bit, even though he's a notorious ground-ball pitcher (a good thing) I'd like to see the K's be higher (and yes, I'm more forgiving of his deficiencies in that area than I am of Jenkins for reasons I can't fully explain). There's a strong possibility that Dyson pushes his way into the Buffalo bullpen (despite a raft of minor league free-agent veterans underfoot) and I look for him to polish his game and be ready for the majors when an opening arises.
23. Yeyfry Del Rosario (RHSP) - 2018 -Labourt and Del Rosario were signed in the same class, but YDR got off to a better start stateside. He is a 6'2" RHSP who sports a n excellent ERA, a great WHIP nd a most impressive K/BB ratio among his2011 stats in the GCL. Lower profile than many of the other pitching prospects you've heard of but definitely someone to watch.
22. Chris Hawkins (LF) - 2016 -Other than Deck McGuire, possibly no Jays prospect fell more in my estimation than Chris Hawkins. He's a left-fielder who's power disappeared and has only okay speed. Nothing abut this guy excites me. He might yet be an okay major leaguer in the mold of, say, an Endy Chavez type with the bat, but such guys survive on defensive reputations - I'm not optimistic.
21. Kevin Pillar (CF) - late 2014 -Reed Johnson comes again! Seriously, that's pretty much the very best description of Pillar I can give you, except that Johnson has marginally more power and Pillar seems to be a marginally better runner.
20. Mitch Nay (3B) - 2018 -Injury prevented him from playing any professional game in 2012. Ranking based solely on pre-draft praise and post draft commentary on the selection. Might easily be a real sleeper for next year's list.
19. Dawel Lugo (SS) -2018 -excellent defender at SS, still uncertainty about the offense. VERY young and raw but the scouts like him a good bit.
18. Matt Dean (3B) -2017 -Really highly regarded coming into the draft, but considered unsignable. Thus the relatively low choice, but when he was signed he was labeled a huge steal in some quarters. Why am I talking about this again instead of his season? Because he mostly sucked this year (though not remotely as bad as, say, Anderson). I'm biased maybe but - mulligan. But he needs to begin pulling it together soon.
17. Dwight Smith (CF) - 2017 -This is based pretty much on positive scouting. I'm still waiting on Smith to make a believer out of me. I'm still half-way expecting Pillar to be a better player overall.
16. Chase DeJong (RHSP) - 2017 -Kind of the flip side of Tyler Gonzales. Highly regarded out of the draft, posted a tiny sample BUT in this case the results were excellent. Still, be a bit cautious until the sample size increases.
15. Adonys Cardona (RHSP) - 2017 -Cardona lost a good chunk of 2012 to the DL and the sample size (eight appearances) is just too small. On the surface it looked as if he suffered a setback from his (also tiny) 2011 line. But the ratios are not notably worse except that the walk rate ticked up and, of course, a higher rate of earned runs. I don't think we've really seen what his highly regarded kid can do yet.
14. Franklin Barreto (SS/CF) - 2018 -Praised as the most advanced hitter and best all around position player in this year's crop of international free agents, it was quite the coup for the Jays to land Barreto. He won't be even 17 until Spring Training and he's younger than most players who will be drafted out of high school in 2014. so he's a LONG way away. Barreto is only 5'9" and scouts don't see a lot of physical projection, and some of them suggest that it's pretty rare to be a top shelf MLB SS at that size. It's far too early to rule the position out, though, and the Jays will surely give him every chance to prove his worth at the position. Scouts, though, generally opine that either 2B or CF is where he'll make his name. Also, he's call "a legitimate 70" when it comes to speed, consistent with the Jays new obsession with burners.
13. Santiago Nessy (C) - 2017 -Nessy is a big strong catcher who was signed to a respectable bonus as an international free agent and is still only 20 years old. He's made steady, unspectacular progress to this point but he's projected to have more bat than he's shown on the field. he's also rated as a quality above-average defender. The Jays will certainly take things very slowly with Nessy unless he explodes offensively. It would be quite a surprise to see him make a significant major league appearance before 2017.
12. Christian Lopes (2B) - 2016 - Lopes was a 2011 draftee who began his professional career in Bluefield. He came into the draft lauded as a very polished hitter for a high school player and while he took a few weeks to get really up to speed, he got better as the season wore on and the Jays wisely promoted him to Vancouver at the end of the year in order to experience the playoff atmosphere. He only had 10 games at the higher level but they should serve him well in 2013. I hold him in such high regard that I make him a sleeper choice to break camp with Lansing, but given the teams recent conservatism with promotions it would not be a slight if they held him back for a half season or so at Vancouver. Lopes is the sort of guy who, I think, will come fast if he's as successful as his skills would indicate and he might be ready to take a crack at the Jays 2B job by the time Izturus' contract expires.
11. John Stilson (RHSP) - late 2013 - Like Sam Dyson, 2012 was Stilson's first full season as a pro. Like Dyson, the Jays were able to draft him because of injuries, Like Dyson, there are doubts he can remain a starter deep into a major league career. But Stilson has a better arsenal and the Jays had him play the season as a starter until late in the year when he was shifted to the pen in respect of his innings limit. Just over half his innings came in Dunedin and they were high quality, the rest came at AA and they were much more respectable than the final line would have you believe. Stilson hit the DL near the end of July, in the last two start before that happened when he was possibly feeling the effects of that distress (quite possibly simple fatigue) he threw 7 innings and allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits. In the previous 7 AA starts he posted an ERA of 3.38
After he came off the DL on August 15, he was shifted to the bullpen and made eight appearances, five of which he w3orked without allowing an earned run and in a sixth he allowed only one. In the last week of the season he made four appearances, three six innings and gave up 7 earned runs - four of them in a single 1 inning outing. Without that one inning, his AA ERA falls by 2/3 of a run. On the whole, I would argue Stilson had a very successful season (he was ranked in the Blue Jays top 10 prospects by BA, and that BEFORE the big trades) which was marred by two bad weeks. I consider him a legitimate candidate to make the rotation in Buffalo.
10. Anthony Alford (OF) - 2018 -On the list of outfielders, I didn't rank Alford because other than pretty much sucking as a freshman quarterback, there was little indication his football days were numbered. But After the miserable season came to an end Alford got into an on-campus fight that resulted in legal charges which are still pending, and three weeks ago Alford was granted his release by the University of Southern Mississippi. There were rumors, so far unfulfilled, that he'd be moving on to Ole Miss but credible reports indicate the Rebels' interest is guarded. Apparently Alford's baseball contract specifies he has up to two years to pick one sport and cut the other one loose. At this point the major thing standing between Alford and being a very good baseball prospect is not so much his legal issues but his ego, which keeps telling him he can be a football star.
Most observers conclude he can be a pretty good football player - though not at quarterback - or an outstanding baseball prospect and he'd be wise to play to his talents. If he does, this ranking is justified, if not too low. If he persists in playing football, he subjects himself to considerable risk of damaging his baseball future beyond repair and in that case I'd not put him even in the top 20.
9. Alberto Tirado (RHSP) - 2018 - signed in 2011, he logged his first professional game appearances in 2012. While Del Rosario actually had a slightly better statistical results, the scouts love Tirado, and at 6'2" 177, he has room to add muscle and even more velocity to his already impressive fastball (94, 95 deep into the game).
8. AJ Jiminez (C) - 2015 - The path to the majors for Jimenez cleared up considerably this winter. But that doesn't mean he doesn't still have work to do. He'll come to ST recovering from TJ surgery but that will obviously have a lesser impact on his performance than it wold for a pitcher. He did, however, miss most of his AA season and he'll need to repeat there. Barring a break out performance you should assume the Jays would see little reason to consider him fora permanent major league spot before 2015.
7. Matt Smoral (LHSP) - 2017 - There's a tier break between the foregoing guys and this level. Every one of the top 7 guys is a flat out stud in some measure. Reflective of the difficulty I had sorting out the top of the list for the LHSP list, you find all those guys bunched together on this list. Smoral is a 6'8" power lefty who draws some comparisons to Randy Johnson. He's yet to throw a professional inning due to a foot injury in his senior year (which is the only reason the Jays had the chance to draft him) and so data is insufficient but this is a guy who could theoretically challenge for #1 a year from now.
5 (tie). Sean Nolin (LHSP) - 2014 - The GM has spoken of Nolin as being on the cusp of the majors. With the added SP depth and talent the team has added, it would take things going pretty horribly wrong for Nolin to get a significant number of starts in the majors in 2013, but that's not a disrespect towards his talent. The team can afford to let him try to dominate AA for at least half a season, if not more, before promoting him to Buffalo. It's that proximity, along with his on-field accomplishments, that pushes him so high on this list. If the Jays decide they don't see a spot in the rotation for him due to crowding, he may well end up a very good LH reliever in 2014.
5. Daniel Norris (LHSP) - 2017 - Pretty much impossible for me to choose between he and Nolin. In terms of pre-draft scouting and projected ceiling, you have to go Norris. If you look at proximity to the majors and success at higher (relatively speaking) levels, then Nolin is an easy choice. This year's list gives you a pretty good insight into the ranking philosophy of whatever publication produced the list you are reading. If you see someone rate Nolin higher (Baseball Prospectus would have him #2 now, and Norris #5) look at probability of success while those who go with Norris (MLB.com has him #2 and Nolin all the way down at #14) look at ultimate ceiling. Me? I try to strike a balance and thus, I have the tied.
4. DJ Davis (CF) - 2018 - the name that's begun to come up when discussing Davis is Kenny Lofton. This is reflective of his excellent speed, quality routes, and below-average arm. The statistical sample is small yet and inconclusive, but the scouting that was published after the season was universally positive. If Davis' ceiling is indeed Lofton-like I'm sure the Blue Jays are quite excited by that.
3. Marcus Stroman (RHP) - 2014 - This rankling reflects the belief that the team will take advantage of their depth and take the time to polish him as a starter rather than taking the knee-jerk "he's too small" road and shuttling him off to short relief. Relief pitchers, even the late inning studs, are seldom enough of a difference maker to justify a top-5 ranking. Stroman doesn't get the Tom Gordon comps for nothing, and it's certainly possible that the right confluence of events would put him into some important innings late this year. But my presumption is that when he comes off his suspension he'll spend the rest of the first half (at that level) at Dunedin and the second half in AA working as a starter.
2. Roberto Osuna (RHSP) - late 2016 - It is not outside the realm of possibility that this kid could be #1 a year from now. As with any prospect, he could certainly regress but I don't think that the majority of observers yet appreciate just how remarkable this guy could be. While he's not the same type of pitcher, necessarily, I get a vibe off this guy that reminds me of Gooden or Valenzuala in terms of exploding into the spotlight at a relatively young age.
1. Aaron Sanchez (RHRP) - second half of 2015 - After the two big trades, Sanchez stands pretty much unchallenged as the top guy in the system. He's the one Blue Jays prospect left who is pretty much a consensus top 50 prospect in the majors and that's a pretty impressive feat for a guy who's still not hit High-A ball yet. The Jays can afford to be patient with him and my ETA reflects that, more heavily than what his actual potential might give him the ability to do.
In conclusion, for now, it's also worth mentioning the guys who are not yet established major leaguers - prospects in reality - but have lost their eligibility for this list. These would include:
Drew Hutchison - should, with a normal recovery curve, make a September appearance or three and be in line to compete for the staff next spring.
Kyle Drabek - Ditto, but with enough stumbles to be a darker horse for the 2014 staff.
Aaron Loup - His chances of breaking camp with the major league squad get exponentially better if Darren Oliver follows through on his retirement plans. The Jays will face the dilemma of either going with one lefty in the pen (and that most likely Brett Cecil) or losing someone to waivers who's out of options (see below) in order to keep a second lefty, who will - as long as Luis Perez is recovering from injury - most likely either be Loup, Evan Crawford, or JA Happ (barring a spring surprise, or an injury)and there's a good argument for keeping Happ stretched out in Buffalo (as much as he will loath that idea).
Jeremy Jefress - has seen major league action in each of the last three seasons but still only has just under 39 big league innings. Out of options, if he doesn't make the cut he has to clear waivers.
Among the hitters, the story is really Anthony Gose. He'll polish his game at AAA but if any relatively long term opening in the majors arises he'll get a call to "come a runnin'." There's also Moises Sierra who's not the prospect Gose is but may well make an appearance if circumstances work in hisfavor.
Sorry for the long delay, My work schedule went from ~ 15 hours a week to over twice that at the beginning of December and I'm struggling to integrate my proclivity for wordiness with my other obligations.
Wednesday, 19 December 2012
2012 Positional Rankings: Relievers
I'll open this brief post with the caveat which always applies when considering future major league relievers - a lot of them are minor league starters. One need look no further than Chad Jenkins. His odds of being a productive long term major league pitcher are substantially higher in the bullpen than in the rotation. Among those who've already appeared on the starter lists, it's easy to identify pitchers who may end up making their career as a reliever.
Marcus Stroman, for instance, is often cited as a guy who could pitch in the majors from opening day if it was in relief. John Stilson is said to have electric stuff, but also health and mechanical issues that lead some scouts to suppose his future is late-inning relief. Sean Nolin may simply be pushed to that role because of the depth of the rotation options and the value of a quality lefty reliever (which is the one pitching related "position" in which the upper level depth is too thin, if Oliver retires. It's not practical to list guys who've been mentioned before on more than one list, but I'll make one exception.
1. Sam Dyson (5/7/88) - Ihave to admit I'm basing this report on the exceedingly high praise of scouting reports. Dyson is a high groundball-rate pitcher who's ratios do not really reflect the talent that had John Farrell calling him one of the best arms in the system. Dismiss Farrell if you want, but the Jays would not have promoted him mid-season and thus force themselves to protect him on the 40 man roster this off-season if there wasn't something to the praise.
2. Chad Jenkins (12/22/87) - This ranking is based heavily on proximity to a major league job as compared to those who follow. I'm not really high on him, but the closer you are to the majors, the less that can go so significantly wrong that you don't make it. I expect him to pitch in the Buffalo rotation out of ST ad while a spot start can't be ruled out, if he stays Blue jays property, he's almost certainly going to do so as a reliever if he's in the majors at all.
3. Dan Barnes (10/21/89) - On the other hand, if you are looking at pure results then it's hard to not think very highly indeed of Danny Barnes. It would be pretty irrational to ask more from a minor league reliever than Barnes has already delivered. In over 156 minor league innings, the 6'1 RHP has a masterful 2.13 ERA and 12.5 K:9 (as compared to 2.9 BB:9). He has yet to be significantly challenged and he should open the season in New Hampshire. It's not at all impossible that he could pass both Dyson and Jenkins this year by the time the jays have need to call on one of them.
4. Evan Crawford (9/2/86)- No less an evaluator than Alex Anthopoulos spoke in growing terms.about Crawford last spring. He'd opened everyone's eyes with a great campaign at New Hampshire in 2011 and impressive work in the AFL. But this year went quite poorly, both in his major league opportunity and upon his return to the minors (Las Vegas caveat applies). The hill is a bit steeper to climb now, with Cecil in the pen, Happ squeezed out of the rotation, and Aaron Loup staking his claim last year (and don't forget that Luis Perez will be back sometime in the second half if there's no setback). but I'll give him one mulligan and be watching to see if he regains his form in Buffalo.
5. Matt Wright (5/7/87) -Wright is, statistically, following in the footsteps of Crawford and Loup.He's a LHP and his rations have been good to great all through the system. He's been a tic old for the level in most seasons but still, on paper he should be something to get excited about - yet I was stunned as no one took him in the Rule 5 draft. So maybe the scouts know something I don't.
6. Griffin Murphy (6/7/92) - my one exception, he DID spend pretty much all of 2012 pitching in relief. but he seems a sort of high profile guy to be so quickly moved out of the starting role and so i'll wait and see how it goes in 2013.
7. Alan Farina (8/9/86) - After 2010, it seemed Farina had re-invented himself in relief and climbed into the prospect radar. He'd put a miserable 2009 (also spent in relief, to be clear) behind him and was on his was. He opened 2011 with 17 effective innings - and then was disabled and on his way to TJ surgery. Results were mixed upon his return last year, but there may be something there in his second year post-surgery. however, at his age he needs to be challenged so Buffalo, or at least New Hampshire, will have to be the scene of any success worth being impressed with.
Coming soon, my (radically altered) combined top prospect list.
Marcus Stroman, for instance, is often cited as a guy who could pitch in the majors from opening day if it was in relief. John Stilson is said to have electric stuff, but also health and mechanical issues that lead some scouts to suppose his future is late-inning relief. Sean Nolin may simply be pushed to that role because of the depth of the rotation options and the value of a quality lefty reliever (which is the one pitching related "position" in which the upper level depth is too thin, if Oliver retires. It's not practical to list guys who've been mentioned before on more than one list, but I'll make one exception.
1. Sam Dyson (5/7/88) - Ihave to admit I'm basing this report on the exceedingly high praise of scouting reports. Dyson is a high groundball-rate pitcher who's ratios do not really reflect the talent that had John Farrell calling him one of the best arms in the system. Dismiss Farrell if you want, but the Jays would not have promoted him mid-season and thus force themselves to protect him on the 40 man roster this off-season if there wasn't something to the praise.
2. Chad Jenkins (12/22/87) - This ranking is based heavily on proximity to a major league job as compared to those who follow. I'm not really high on him, but the closer you are to the majors, the less that can go so significantly wrong that you don't make it. I expect him to pitch in the Buffalo rotation out of ST ad while a spot start can't be ruled out, if he stays Blue jays property, he's almost certainly going to do so as a reliever if he's in the majors at all.
3. Dan Barnes (10/21/89) - On the other hand, if you are looking at pure results then it's hard to not think very highly indeed of Danny Barnes. It would be pretty irrational to ask more from a minor league reliever than Barnes has already delivered. In over 156 minor league innings, the 6'1 RHP has a masterful 2.13 ERA and 12.5 K:9 (as compared to 2.9 BB:9). He has yet to be significantly challenged and he should open the season in New Hampshire. It's not at all impossible that he could pass both Dyson and Jenkins this year by the time the jays have need to call on one of them.
4. Evan Crawford (9/2/86)- No less an evaluator than Alex Anthopoulos spoke in growing terms.about Crawford last spring. He'd opened everyone's eyes with a great campaign at New Hampshire in 2011 and impressive work in the AFL. But this year went quite poorly, both in his major league opportunity and upon his return to the minors (Las Vegas caveat applies). The hill is a bit steeper to climb now, with Cecil in the pen, Happ squeezed out of the rotation, and Aaron Loup staking his claim last year (and don't forget that Luis Perez will be back sometime in the second half if there's no setback). but I'll give him one mulligan and be watching to see if he regains his form in Buffalo.
5. Matt Wright (5/7/87) -Wright is, statistically, following in the footsteps of Crawford and Loup.He's a LHP and his rations have been good to great all through the system. He's been a tic old for the level in most seasons but still, on paper he should be something to get excited about - yet I was stunned as no one took him in the Rule 5 draft. So maybe the scouts know something I don't.
6. Griffin Murphy (6/7/92) - my one exception, he DID spend pretty much all of 2012 pitching in relief. but he seems a sort of high profile guy to be so quickly moved out of the starting role and so i'll wait and see how it goes in 2013.
7. Alan Farina (8/9/86) - After 2010, it seemed Farina had re-invented himself in relief and climbed into the prospect radar. He'd put a miserable 2009 (also spent in relief, to be clear) behind him and was on his was. He opened 2011 with 17 effective innings - and then was disabled and on his way to TJ surgery. Results were mixed upon his return last year, but there may be something there in his second year post-surgery. however, at his age he needs to be challenged so Buffalo, or at least New Hampshire, will have to be the scene of any success worth being impressed with.
Coming soon, my (radically altered) combined top prospect list.
Tuesday, 18 December 2012
There's a New Sheriff in Town
Notice is served.
There's so much excellent commentary out there that a lot of this is simply going to be a paraphrase of things you've heard others say and I acknowledge that but they are consistent with my own thinking so when I happen to parallel an already expressed view so be it.
And also, they are sort of random thoughts because, as usual, I'm reacting to the reaction since I am not a breaker of news.
First, the contract. given the cost in dollars of landing a legitimate #1 pitcher (and a Cy winner has to be considered such until it's demonstrated on the mound he's not) from outside your organization in today's market, the $24 million the Jays will pay Dickey in the extension over two years (or $36 mil in three) is an insanely good deal. Getting to pay him less than John Buck is going to make in 2013 just takes you into LSD trip fantasy land.
Second, the price in prospects. Look, the Brewers gave up a better prospect than d'Arnaudto get Saun Marcum. No one really blinked. The Royals gave up a very similar package (assuming you think Syndergaard is enough better than Ororizzi to make up forthe deficit between Myers and d'Arnaud) and there are other examples. This is not an above market payment, although admittedly it is painful if you are emotionally invested in your prospects (as i am in d'Arnaud).
Furthermore, the eternal negativity of many Jays fans won't seem to die. for years they whine Rogers is cheap, then Rogers spends which is good, but during those years the refrain was often something like "prospects don't win games in the majors, we need to acquire guys can help now" and when that happens they whine"we paid too much!"
That said, as Mike Wilner and others point out - a LOT of highly regarded prospects fail. The classic example is that many Jays fans are disappointed in Colby Rasmus, despite him having been a top 5 prospect in baseball TWICE. But one that cuts closer to my heart and probably yours is Travis Snider. As a prospect he was certainly more highly praised than d'Arnaud is as I write this, he was THE guy we'd build the next decade around. if we'd traded him before he ever got to the majors the GM would have been burned in effigy outside the stadium. How's he worked out so far? Look, Syndergaard was the cost of doing business, you were never going to deal for ANY ace pitcher without including him or Aaron Sanchez. Anyone who's upset with that is simply not realistic. No, d'Arnaud is the one who hurts. But, again let's cite Wilner - d'Arnaud is not remotely as hyped as Matt Weiters was and Weiters still hasn't turned into an All-Star and that typical of young catchers (Posey and Piazza aside) and not at all uncommon among prospects in general.
So factoring in BOTH contract and player costs, this deal is an astonishing success in terms of the return and how it elevates the team.
Third - the obvious comparison to the Yankees and Rays will have to wait for another day, in terms of detailed comparisons, But I'm prepared to argue that this roster, on paper ("gel" issues aside) is THE best team in the AL and possible the Majors right now. While I acknowledge that Adam Lind seemingly can't hit lefties at all, those who persist in whining about that particular issue are irredeemable negativist. Just shut up. If Lind starts at DH every single AL game, he's going to face a LHSP less than 40 times, and maybe a quarter of those being really good examples of the type. Put another way, Lind had 89 at bats against lefties last year in 135 games played. So lets round that up to 100. He hit .276 v. RHP so the same rate would amount to 28 hits in those 100 at bats. He had 18 vs. LHP last year. You see that? We're talking about the difference of less than TEN hits in the whole season. So chill the f*** out, eh?
Let's enjoy this. After last season, we deserve it.
There's so much excellent commentary out there that a lot of this is simply going to be a paraphrase of things you've heard others say and I acknowledge that but they are consistent with my own thinking so when I happen to parallel an already expressed view so be it.
And also, they are sort of random thoughts because, as usual, I'm reacting to the reaction since I am not a breaker of news.
First, the contract. given the cost in dollars of landing a legitimate #1 pitcher (and a Cy winner has to be considered such until it's demonstrated on the mound he's not) from outside your organization in today's market, the $24 million the Jays will pay Dickey in the extension over two years (or $36 mil in three) is an insanely good deal. Getting to pay him less than John Buck is going to make in 2013 just takes you into LSD trip fantasy land.
Second, the price in prospects. Look, the Brewers gave up a better prospect than d'Arnaudto get Saun Marcum. No one really blinked. The Royals gave up a very similar package (assuming you think Syndergaard is enough better than Ororizzi to make up forthe deficit between Myers and d'Arnaud) and there are other examples. This is not an above market payment, although admittedly it is painful if you are emotionally invested in your prospects (as i am in d'Arnaud).
Furthermore, the eternal negativity of many Jays fans won't seem to die. for years they whine Rogers is cheap, then Rogers spends which is good, but during those years the refrain was often something like "prospects don't win games in the majors, we need to acquire guys can help now" and when that happens they whine"we paid too much!"
That said, as Mike Wilner and others point out - a LOT of highly regarded prospects fail. The classic example is that many Jays fans are disappointed in Colby Rasmus, despite him having been a top 5 prospect in baseball TWICE. But one that cuts closer to my heart and probably yours is Travis Snider. As a prospect he was certainly more highly praised than d'Arnaud is as I write this, he was THE guy we'd build the next decade around. if we'd traded him before he ever got to the majors the GM would have been burned in effigy outside the stadium. How's he worked out so far? Look, Syndergaard was the cost of doing business, you were never going to deal for ANY ace pitcher without including him or Aaron Sanchez. Anyone who's upset with that is simply not realistic. No, d'Arnaud is the one who hurts. But, again let's cite Wilner - d'Arnaud is not remotely as hyped as Matt Weiters was and Weiters still hasn't turned into an All-Star and that typical of young catchers (Posey and Piazza aside) and not at all uncommon among prospects in general.
So factoring in BOTH contract and player costs, this deal is an astonishing success in terms of the return and how it elevates the team.
Third - the obvious comparison to the Yankees and Rays will have to wait for another day, in terms of detailed comparisons, But I'm prepared to argue that this roster, on paper ("gel" issues aside) is THE best team in the AL and possible the Majors right now. While I acknowledge that Adam Lind seemingly can't hit lefties at all, those who persist in whining about that particular issue are irredeemable negativist. Just shut up. If Lind starts at DH every single AL game, he's going to face a LHSP less than 40 times, and maybe a quarter of those being really good examples of the type. Put another way, Lind had 89 at bats against lefties last year in 135 games played. So lets round that up to 100. He hit .276 v. RHP so the same rate would amount to 28 hits in those 100 at bats. He had 18 vs. LHP last year. You see that? We're talking about the difference of less than TEN hits in the whole season. So chill the f*** out, eh?
Let's enjoy this. After last season, we deserve it.
Sunday, 16 December 2012
Trade Forthcoming?
It's been a while since I posted here. Just a classic case of real life getting in the way of baseball. Anyways, nothing has happened yet (at least not officially), but as you all have heard already, there is a rumored deal between the Jays and the Mets. Normally I wouldn't analyze a trade before it actually happens, but in this case I'll make an exception. I figure if it goes through I'd obviously analyze it, and even if it ends up falling apart, I would still like to write my thoughts about why that happened, and whether it's a good thing for the Jays or not.
Before I get into the analyzing, just for completeness I should state that the rumors out there at this point suggest it will be D'Arnaud, Buck and Syndergaard plus, for Dickey, Thole plus. The truth is though, that the only thing that really seems to have any truth to it is that the deal will center around D'Arnaud (=TDA) for Dickey. All the rest, if you read the reports (or tweets) carefully, is pure speculation. Therefore, I'm going to just look at the idea of a TDA for Dickey trade, and assume (or at least hope) that whatever the other pieces are end up being relatively balanced in the end.
The way I see it, there are three important issues here. First, is Dickey really this good? Second, how should we evaluate deals where prospects are traded for proven players? Third, how valuable a prospect is TDA?
Let's deal with the first question first. While as recently as a week or two ago the majority of bloggers and writers seemed to focus on the fact that Dickey is no run of the mill Cy Young winner. He's 38 years old, throws a pitch whose effectiveness can fluctuate pretty easily, and he doesn't really have the track record of a "true ace". Yes, he's a nice pitcher, but nobody is going to mistake him for Justin Verlander.
Over the last few days, however, the tone seems to have changed significantly. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an article that saw Dickey in a very favorable light. It compared him to David Price, showing (correctly) that their results over the last three seasons have been pretty similar to each other. A reasonable argument one could make is that if the Jays were getting 3 years of David Price in this trade rather than 3 years of Dickey, we would expect the return the Rays would demand would be much more than TDA, and we'd probably be happy to pay it. Well, the logic is simple. If Price>TDA, and Price=Dickey, then it follows that Dickey>TDA. Sounds like a good deal for the Jays, right?
The problem is that Cameron fails to realize that Dickey is not David Price. In 2010 when each posted similar results, Dickey was 36 years old, and nobody had heard of him. David Price was 24 years old, a hot-shot prospect in his first full season in the big leagues. Price's skills showed a linear improvement from 2010-2012 (as seen by his decreasing xFIP each year) in a demonstrable way, and he has the pedigree and the stuff that we're used to in an ace. He is still trending upward, and is just now entering his prime.
Dickey, on the other hand, is just a hard guy to pin down. Yes, he's been pretty consistently good over the past three seasons, but because of his pitch arsenal, he's not really somebody we can analyze using our go-to advanced metrics. He's not someone trending upward in the way Price is. He's certainly well past his prime even if aging isn't such a concern with knuckleballers, and he lacks the typical "ace pedigree/stuff" that we're used to. As someone who analyzes baseball players, Dickey just makes you feel uncomfortable.
So Dickey is not David Price. But that's fine. You don't need a David Price in return to be willing to give up a top prospect. Dickey is not David Price, but he's still a huge talent, even if we can't really understand him statistically. To get a top of the rotation guy for 3/$30M is a pretty rare opportunity, and that kind of haul has a lot of value. Is that worth TDA and Syndergaard? I'm not sure, but it's not so far off to say that it is.
Let's look at the second question quickly: how do we see prospects in trades. This has been discussed in many places, and I just think some simple balance is in order. I'm not saying anything really new here. Yes, prospects are question marks, and therefore when you can trade question marks for established players, that's generally a good thing. When what you give up in prospects has the potential to be better than what you're getting in return if things go right for the prospects is also normal and expected. Especially when you're in win-now mode which the Jays most certainly are. But this just has to be balanced with an eye to the future as well. Being in win-now mode shouldn't have to mean going all in and mortgaging the future. AA has put enough pieces in place that he should be able to continue with his plan of sustained long-term success. This trade would obviously hurt the Jays farm system. Between all that has happened this winter, if this deal goes through as rumored, the Jays will probably drop from having one of the best farms in the league, to having an average to below average one. Their farm isn't empty at all like how JPR left it, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that even after this deal the Jays would still have plenty of pieces they could make available in trade.
And that brings us to the final question: what is the value of TDA? It's here where I actually come to hope that this trade ends up falling through. I think that the value of a guy like TDA is actually underestimated, even by those who are overly enamored with prospects. And that's because contrary to popular belief, I actually think a big time catching prospect who is MLB ready has more value than a top pitching prospect, and perhaps even as much value as an established top of the rotation pitcher.
Now, if you turned to WAR or other such metrics that we often use to determine the value of players, it would come out that I'm wrong. Aces typically produce more WAR in a season that good catchers, as a general rule. The thing is though, even though WAR does take positional scarcity into account, I'm not sure it does so enough for catchers. Take a look as these facts:
This is a list of catchers who have accumulated 6.0 WAR or more over 2011-2012:
Now, after this past season it seems more likely that Avila was a one-year-wonder in 2011, Ruiz was on steroids, and Napoli isn't going to be a catcher anymore going forward (at least not full time), so we should remove them from the list. We can add Salvador Perez to the list, because he produced more than 3.0 WAR in 2012, his only semi full season. That leaves us with 8 catchers. Now, WAR is designed so that the league average player at a given position should produce about 2.0 WAR. So the fact that there are only 8 players of a position that produced more than 3.0 WAR per season is not so strange on its own. However, I don't think that tells the whole story here.
Look at that list of 8 catchers carefully. I think if we just used general scouting/opinion/knowledge about baseball players (forgetting about WAR), we'd say this list of 8 is a pretty accurate list of the catchers that we'd describe as being "good." These 8 can hold there own defensively (or better) at a tough position, and put up at least respectable wOBAs. Their bats are at least good enough that they could play another position and still be able to be a starter, even if a below average one. We're not talking 8 Pudge Rodriguez's or Mike Piazza's here. We're talking "good" here, not superstar. And 8 is not a lot when there are 30 teams. Yes, the players who didn't make this cut are still solid. There are Russel Martins and AJ Pierzinskys and Saltys and Avilas and Lucroys out there, but there really is a drop off that is at least somewhat significant. Just for the record, JPA comes in at 30th on this list, behind even Buck who comes in at #21... (Just saying)
Now take another look at our list of 8. What else do they all have in common? With the exception Brian McCann (who had a very bad 2012 and is now missing a chunk of 2013 due to surgery), all other 7 of these guys are locked up in long term deals on their teams, and they're all unlikely to go anywhere. And that for me, is the key point. There aren't many of these guys around. Most teams don't have them, and most teams have a lot of trouble developing them. And for that reason, when one of them does come along, they get locked up fast, and for the long term. And by the time their contracts expire, they're usually too old to be seen as full time catchers from then on (or at least not with the same skill level that they had at the beginning of their contracts). In other words, these guys are extremely hard to come by.
Compare that to pitchers. Pitchers stay productive for a lot longer than catchers, and there are also a lot more good pitchers out there than good catchers, simply because of demand. Teams need 5 pitchers, while they only need one catcher. And for these and probably other reasons, good top of the rotation pitching is actually (if surprisingly) available more than you might think, and certainly more often that top catchers are available. Last winter Yu Darvish and CJ Wilson were available, and Mat Latos and Gio Gonzales were traded. Latos was traded from the Padres because they got a good haul and they knew they weren't ready to contend yet. The A's traded Gio because they didn't expect to contend. This winter Greinke and Anibal Sanchez were available, and so was James Shields and now Dickey. David Price will almost certainly become available in the next year or two, and there will be others. There always are. Pitchers become free agents when they're still good. Teams trade good pitchers. And that's not even mentioning the myriad of solid middle of the rotation guys who are constantly available, and who are more than adequate for a team that already features Johnson and Morrow atop their rotation.
Catchers don't become available. Maybe McCann will be available next year. Maybe not. If he is, you can be sure teams like the Yankees and Dodgers will be in on the bidding, with lots of money to spend. There wasn't a single elite catcher to become available this winter, and there wasn't one last year either (okay, last year Jesus Montero was traded, but he was seen as more of a DH than a catcher anyways).
So, yes, I know TDA is still just a prospect. And yes, I know prospects are question marks. And yes, I remember that Jesus Montero was the top catching prospect last year, and he even had some MLB success under his belt, and he still completely flopped this year. But I also remember that Carlos Santana and Matt Weiters and Salvador Perez and Buster Posey were once prospects. And while they may not have become quite as elite as people might have hoped, they're still on our list of 8. These guys don't come to you in trades or as free agents, usually. They come in one way, and that's homegrown. They're so rare, that when a team actually gets one, they don't let go. And so, even though TDA is no sure thing, when you have a player who at least scouts think could make our list grow from 8 to 9, even if he won't be Joe Mauer or Buster Posey, even if he'll just be a bit above league average with the bat, and a bit above league average with the glove (and that's all it really takes to make our list when you're a catcher), you grab that player and you don't let him go. Because if July 31st comes and you find you need another pitcher, or if 2014 comes and you want another ace, one will be waiting there for you if you're willing to spend the money or the prospects (or both). But if those times come and you want to upgrade at catcher, you're gonna be left staring at a blank page of available options.
-Martin
Before I get into the analyzing, just for completeness I should state that the rumors out there at this point suggest it will be D'Arnaud, Buck and Syndergaard plus, for Dickey, Thole plus. The truth is though, that the only thing that really seems to have any truth to it is that the deal will center around D'Arnaud (=TDA) for Dickey. All the rest, if you read the reports (or tweets) carefully, is pure speculation. Therefore, I'm going to just look at the idea of a TDA for Dickey trade, and assume (or at least hope) that whatever the other pieces are end up being relatively balanced in the end.
The way I see it, there are three important issues here. First, is Dickey really this good? Second, how should we evaluate deals where prospects are traded for proven players? Third, how valuable a prospect is TDA?
Let's deal with the first question first. While as recently as a week or two ago the majority of bloggers and writers seemed to focus on the fact that Dickey is no run of the mill Cy Young winner. He's 38 years old, throws a pitch whose effectiveness can fluctuate pretty easily, and he doesn't really have the track record of a "true ace". Yes, he's a nice pitcher, but nobody is going to mistake him for Justin Verlander.
Over the last few days, however, the tone seems to have changed significantly. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an article that saw Dickey in a very favorable light. It compared him to David Price, showing (correctly) that their results over the last three seasons have been pretty similar to each other. A reasonable argument one could make is that if the Jays were getting 3 years of David Price in this trade rather than 3 years of Dickey, we would expect the return the Rays would demand would be much more than TDA, and we'd probably be happy to pay it. Well, the logic is simple. If Price>TDA, and Price=Dickey, then it follows that Dickey>TDA. Sounds like a good deal for the Jays, right?
The problem is that Cameron fails to realize that Dickey is not David Price. In 2010 when each posted similar results, Dickey was 36 years old, and nobody had heard of him. David Price was 24 years old, a hot-shot prospect in his first full season in the big leagues. Price's skills showed a linear improvement from 2010-2012 (as seen by his decreasing xFIP each year) in a demonstrable way, and he has the pedigree and the stuff that we're used to in an ace. He is still trending upward, and is just now entering his prime.
Dickey, on the other hand, is just a hard guy to pin down. Yes, he's been pretty consistently good over the past three seasons, but because of his pitch arsenal, he's not really somebody we can analyze using our go-to advanced metrics. He's not someone trending upward in the way Price is. He's certainly well past his prime even if aging isn't such a concern with knuckleballers, and he lacks the typical "ace pedigree/stuff" that we're used to. As someone who analyzes baseball players, Dickey just makes you feel uncomfortable.
So Dickey is not David Price. But that's fine. You don't need a David Price in return to be willing to give up a top prospect. Dickey is not David Price, but he's still a huge talent, even if we can't really understand him statistically. To get a top of the rotation guy for 3/$30M is a pretty rare opportunity, and that kind of haul has a lot of value. Is that worth TDA and Syndergaard? I'm not sure, but it's not so far off to say that it is.
Let's look at the second question quickly: how do we see prospects in trades. This has been discussed in many places, and I just think some simple balance is in order. I'm not saying anything really new here. Yes, prospects are question marks, and therefore when you can trade question marks for established players, that's generally a good thing. When what you give up in prospects has the potential to be better than what you're getting in return if things go right for the prospects is also normal and expected. Especially when you're in win-now mode which the Jays most certainly are. But this just has to be balanced with an eye to the future as well. Being in win-now mode shouldn't have to mean going all in and mortgaging the future. AA has put enough pieces in place that he should be able to continue with his plan of sustained long-term success. This trade would obviously hurt the Jays farm system. Between all that has happened this winter, if this deal goes through as rumored, the Jays will probably drop from having one of the best farms in the league, to having an average to below average one. Their farm isn't empty at all like how JPR left it, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that even after this deal the Jays would still have plenty of pieces they could make available in trade.
And that brings us to the final question: what is the value of TDA? It's here where I actually come to hope that this trade ends up falling through. I think that the value of a guy like TDA is actually underestimated, even by those who are overly enamored with prospects. And that's because contrary to popular belief, I actually think a big time catching prospect who is MLB ready has more value than a top pitching prospect, and perhaps even as much value as an established top of the rotation pitcher.
Now, if you turned to WAR or other such metrics that we often use to determine the value of players, it would come out that I'm wrong. Aces typically produce more WAR in a season that good catchers, as a general rule. The thing is though, even though WAR does take positional scarcity into account, I'm not sure it does so enough for catchers. Take a look as these facts:
This is a list of catchers who have accumulated 6.0 WAR or more over 2011-2012:
| 1 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 277 | 1081 | 304 | 36 | 120 | 141 | 16 | 7.2 % | 9.2 % | .173 | .314 | .310 | .362 | .484 | .365 | 132 | 14.9 | -9.9 | 11.2 |
| 2 | Buster Posey | Giants | 193 | 795 | 224 | 28 | 95 | 124 | 4 | 10.9 % | 15.8 % | .188 | .358 | .324 | .399 | .512 | .390 | 151 | 10.5 | -4.5 | 9.8 |
| 3 | Miguel Montero | Diamondbacks | 281 | 1126 | 278 | 33 | 130 | 174 | 1 | 10.7 % | 20.2 % | .170 | .338 | .284 | .372 | .454 | .358 | 120 | 8.7 | -9.3 | 9.3 |
| 4 | Matt Wieters | Orioles | 283 | 1144 | 262 | 45 | 139 | 151 | 4 | 9.4 % | 17.1 % | .187 | .275 | .255 | .329 | .442 | .335 | 108 | 21.0 | -6.3 | 9.1 |
| 5 | Carlos Ruiz | Phillies | 246 | 893 | 237 | 22 | 105 | 108 | 5 | 8.6 % | 11.0 % | .155 | .322 | .303 | .382 | .458 | .364 | 129 | 4.8 | -2.2 | 8.7 |
| 6 | Mike Napoli | Rangers | 221 | 849 | 198 | 54 | 125 | 131 | 5 | 13.4 % | 24.7 % | .277 | .312 | .275 | .379 | .552 | .398 | 146 | -4.7 | -3.0 | 7.6 |
| 7 | Alex Avila | Tigers | 257 | 985 | 226 | 28 | 105 | 130 | 5 | 13.6 % | 23.9 % | .181 | .343 | .272 | .372 | .452 | .358 | 125 | -7.4 | -4.1 | 7.4 |
| 8 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 298 | 1267 | 260 | 45 | 156 | 155 | 8 | 14.8 % | 18.5 % | .194 | .270 | .246 | .358 | .439 | .347 | 122 | -9.3 | -7.2 | 7.1 |
| 9 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 229 | 974 | 259 | 13 | 119 | 115 | 8 | 12.5 % | 12.9 % | .111 | .348 | .308 | .397 | .419 | .357 | 126 | -2.8 | -0.1 | 6.5 |
| 10 | Brian McCann | Braves | 249 | 1014 | 227 | 44 | 95 | 138 | 6 | 10.0 % | 16.3 % | .182 | .261 | .251 | .326 | .433 | .326 | 104 | 4.2 | -6.2 | 6.1 |
Now, after this past season it seems more likely that Avila was a one-year-wonder in 2011, Ruiz was on steroids, and Napoli isn't going to be a catcher anymore going forward (at least not full time), so we should remove them from the list. We can add Salvador Perez to the list, because he produced more than 3.0 WAR in 2012, his only semi full season. That leaves us with 8 catchers. Now, WAR is designed so that the league average player at a given position should produce about 2.0 WAR. So the fact that there are only 8 players of a position that produced more than 3.0 WAR per season is not so strange on its own. However, I don't think that tells the whole story here.
Look at that list of 8 catchers carefully. I think if we just used general scouting/opinion/knowledge about baseball players (forgetting about WAR), we'd say this list of 8 is a pretty accurate list of the catchers that we'd describe as being "good." These 8 can hold there own defensively (or better) at a tough position, and put up at least respectable wOBAs. Their bats are at least good enough that they could play another position and still be able to be a starter, even if a below average one. We're not talking 8 Pudge Rodriguez's or Mike Piazza's here. We're talking "good" here, not superstar. And 8 is not a lot when there are 30 teams. Yes, the players who didn't make this cut are still solid. There are Russel Martins and AJ Pierzinskys and Saltys and Avilas and Lucroys out there, but there really is a drop off that is at least somewhat significant. Just for the record, JPA comes in at 30th on this list, behind even Buck who comes in at #21... (Just saying)
Now take another look at our list of 8. What else do they all have in common? With the exception Brian McCann (who had a very bad 2012 and is now missing a chunk of 2013 due to surgery), all other 7 of these guys are locked up in long term deals on their teams, and they're all unlikely to go anywhere. And that for me, is the key point. There aren't many of these guys around. Most teams don't have them, and most teams have a lot of trouble developing them. And for that reason, when one of them does come along, they get locked up fast, and for the long term. And by the time their contracts expire, they're usually too old to be seen as full time catchers from then on (or at least not with the same skill level that they had at the beginning of their contracts). In other words, these guys are extremely hard to come by.
Compare that to pitchers. Pitchers stay productive for a lot longer than catchers, and there are also a lot more good pitchers out there than good catchers, simply because of demand. Teams need 5 pitchers, while they only need one catcher. And for these and probably other reasons, good top of the rotation pitching is actually (if surprisingly) available more than you might think, and certainly more often that top catchers are available. Last winter Yu Darvish and CJ Wilson were available, and Mat Latos and Gio Gonzales were traded. Latos was traded from the Padres because they got a good haul and they knew they weren't ready to contend yet. The A's traded Gio because they didn't expect to contend. This winter Greinke and Anibal Sanchez were available, and so was James Shields and now Dickey. David Price will almost certainly become available in the next year or two, and there will be others. There always are. Pitchers become free agents when they're still good. Teams trade good pitchers. And that's not even mentioning the myriad of solid middle of the rotation guys who are constantly available, and who are more than adequate for a team that already features Johnson and Morrow atop their rotation.
Catchers don't become available. Maybe McCann will be available next year. Maybe not. If he is, you can be sure teams like the Yankees and Dodgers will be in on the bidding, with lots of money to spend. There wasn't a single elite catcher to become available this winter, and there wasn't one last year either (okay, last year Jesus Montero was traded, but he was seen as more of a DH than a catcher anyways).
So, yes, I know TDA is still just a prospect. And yes, I know prospects are question marks. And yes, I remember that Jesus Montero was the top catching prospect last year, and he even had some MLB success under his belt, and he still completely flopped this year. But I also remember that Carlos Santana and Matt Weiters and Salvador Perez and Buster Posey were once prospects. And while they may not have become quite as elite as people might have hoped, they're still on our list of 8. These guys don't come to you in trades or as free agents, usually. They come in one way, and that's homegrown. They're so rare, that when a team actually gets one, they don't let go. And so, even though TDA is no sure thing, when you have a player who at least scouts think could make our list grow from 8 to 9, even if he won't be Joe Mauer or Buster Posey, even if he'll just be a bit above league average with the bat, and a bit above league average with the glove (and that's all it really takes to make our list when you're a catcher), you grab that player and you don't let him go. Because if July 31st comes and you find you need another pitcher, or if 2014 comes and you want another ace, one will be waiting there for you if you're willing to spend the money or the prospects (or both). But if those times come and you want to upgrade at catcher, you're gonna be left staring at a blank page of available options.
-Martin
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
