The Ring is the Thing

The AFL season is over and the Phoenix Desert Dogs have their fifth straight championship ring. More attention getting, for our purposes, is that several Blue Jays prospects including slugging catcher prospect JP Arencibia will be garnishing their digits with a bit of the traditional jewelry.

Arencibia went to Arizona with instructions to work on taking pitches and drawing walks and his early work in that area was encouraging. But is the AFL season wore on, he either lost focus on that or simply got tired and was challenged more. In 95 fall league at bats he drew five walks, which is good when you consider he only drew seven in 262 AA at bats. The problem comes in that he drew all those walks in the first 12-15 games of the AFL season and he finished out the last dozen games or so (without being able to see the entire gamelog it's difficult to be precise) without a walk. Still, it's hard to be too troubled given that JPA has played far more games in a year this year than he ever has before.

Overall, he posted a .782 OPS in Arizona. Contrary to popular expectations, I think he'll get assigned to AA New Hampshire to start the season next year with the expectation he'll move up to AAA a couple of months down the line. I, for one, think that if you want him to take more walks, you don't start him out in the PCL where the temptation to swing for the fences will be huge.

Other Jays on the Phoenix team include Scott Campbell, who couldn't get in a power groove but drew 14 walks in 64 plate appearances for a .446 OBP; Ryan Patterson who was struggling early but finished the season en fuego (he hit .405 and slugged .703 in his last 10 games) to finish the fall season with a nifty .831 OPS (compare to the .719 he posted in AA) - Patterson is still a lefty masher who's punchless against RHP though; hard-throwing Kyle Ginley, who was making some progress before getting lit up in his last two appearances to finish with an ERA over eight; non-prospects Mike MacDonald and Aaron Harang who were even worse (while pitching in relief for the Dogs); and relief prospect Zach Dials, whose stat page refuses to load.

Don't sweat the pitching too much. Ginley had nagging injuries all year and just needed some reps, Harang and MacDonald are organizational filler who, in my opinion, had no business in Arizona to start with. Be pleased with how the hitters did against what is, in most cases, AAA pitching.

Meanwhile, further west, the Hawaii Winter League has also wrapped for the season. Hard charging 2b/3b prospect Brad Emaus posted an eye-popping ratio of 17 walks to 7 strikeouts in 98 plate appearances. And that while slugging .494 along the way. If this kid develops just a little more power you can relax about the question of who follows Scott Rolen at 3B in Toronto.

Also playing in Hawaii was raw, but talented, CF prospect Eric Eiland. There's nothing to praise about his Hawaii performance - 3 singles and 7 walks, along with 17 strikeouts, in 48 plate appearances. But don't get too down on the kid, he has to be gassed, and it is worth remembering that he's still a year ahead of where Rios was at this age.

Finally, new project Adam Loewen, in his first real look at professional ball from a hitter's perspective, collected hits in 4 of the 10 games he got into, going 6 for 29 (half of those hits coming on one 3/4 day) but also drew a respectable five walks for a .368 OBP. Loewen will be one of the most intriguing stories of 2009 for Jays fans.

***

While I'm on the subject of winter baseball, minor league free agent 3B Jesus Guzman, late of the A's system, continues to rake the ball (as he did last year in AA) in the Venezuelan winter league. He's posting the following line in 115 ab:

.400 - .500 - .696 - 1.196

And has more walks than strikeouts. Given what has passed for third baseman in AAA for the Jays the last several years, I certainly hope the Jays are paying attention here. Anyone who signed him now would risk losing him in the Rule Five draft but as soon as that event is finished, the Jays need to be first in line for Guzman.

~WillRain

Newbies!

Robert MacLeod informs us that there are two new Blue Jays today! Yay!! Not only that, but they are high draft picks to boot.

To your right you see Bryan Bullington. The just turned 28 right hander who was selected #1 overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2002. Looking at Bullington's minor league stats and history is informative here. His age 23 season at AA in 2004 was unimpressive for a #1 pick, but not a train wreck, the next year at AAA he pitched well in 18 starts but only appeared once for the Pirates after developing an elbow injury that forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2006. Recovering in 2007 he suffered the typical control issues and his K rate, which had been decent but far from impressive, sharply declined. He opened 2008 back in AAA and his ratios were improved (7.20 K/9, 3.00 BB/9) but he was giving up too many hits. Still, it wasn't THAT ugly. Somehow the Pirates managed to lose Bullington to the Indians on waivers and he gave them 10 fairly good starts in AAA before being called up for two September starts. In those starts, he gave up 15 hits and only 2 walks in 14.2 innings while striking out 12. The downside is he gave up 4 home runs. The Jays claimed Bullington off waivers today and waived Kevin Mench to make room for him. What he signed for is uncertain but they were not officially on the hook for Loewen's $700K salary because they did not claim him on waivers.

Bottom line: I think this is an excellent pick up. No one should expect Bullington to necessarily live up to the #1 pick billing of course, but he'll be added to the mix of guys competing for the back of the rotation next year and there's at least a possibility that one of the Jays' pitching gurus will find the key which unlocks Bullington's talents. At worst, he's quality AAA depth and more to be noticed than the likes of Bill Murphy.

To the left, above, is once heralded pitcher Adam Loewen who is a pitcher no more. The contract that the 4th overall pick in 2002 signed with the Orioles demanded that at this point in his career he be paid $700,000 and be placed on the 40 man roster if they retained him. The O's tried to sneak the 24 year old lefty through waivers but the Jays were able to attract Loewen to sign with them after he cleared waivers. Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, widely recognized as a top guy when it comes to talent evaluation said this:

“Hopefully this is the start of something really good, We're really excited to see him come into spring training and see what he can do.”

Cito Gaston had a much more intriguing quote:

"They tell me he was like that kid down in Texas -- Josh Hamilton -- as a hitter"

LaCava said the Jays will bring Loewen, who hasn't been a hitter since 2003, to spring training and work him out as a 1B and/or corner outfielder to see where they think he plays best. It's uncertain where the rusty hitter will begin his re-invention but if Rick Ankiel serves as the model, probably Dunedin or Lansing depending on how the Jays other established prospects are assigned. Ankiel got about 700 minor league at bats before he got back to St. Louis so if you see Loewen wielding a bat in Toronto before 2011, be impressed.

~WillRain

Hot Stove (In)action! Part Deux

I had a mini solo road trip of sorts this morning and was looking for something appropriate for a 90 km drive on a brisk, overcast, autumnal Southwestern Ontario day and was pleased as punch when I found a dusty copy of Slint's Spiderland in an old CD bin from the later 1990s. My heart was gladdened; the day was off to an auspicious start. And then the cruel bitch goddess fate intervened as I would later discover that this treasured and near irreplaceable album from days of yore is now scratched to the point that "Good Morning Captain", the most hauntingly emotional song of one of the finest decades in the history of music, is completely unlistenable. On the off chance that anyone reading has Spiderland and would be willing to burn me a copy, well, I'd owe you an eternal debt of gratitude.

Baseball-wise, there's nothing like the pure comedic gold of the Toronto Star's senior Jays writer and mailbag answerer, Turd Ferguson. The high and low lights:

* we used to shit on JP for not being Dave Dombrowski, but now let's shit on him now for not being Rays GM Andrew Friedman; oh, and we're totally fucked on payroll in 2010 when Wells becomes a $21 million albatross and warm bodies like Scott Rolen and BJ Ryan are each costing $10 mil plus

* signing recently-released and ?injured? Orioles SP turned OF Adam Loewen just because he's Canadian is a pretty stupid idea, even for a mailbag questioner; but yeah, the Blue Jays should replace the Canadian government as the primary social services provider in this country

* Scott Richmond, Olympics rabble rabble, is a AAA grade beefcake, whereas Rickey Romero can suck JP's fat one; and, finally...

* the distinguished writer used to work for the Expos, who were God's gift to baseball in case you hadn't heard

The Sun's resident cigarette muncher, Bob Elliot, is, however, predictably enthusiastic about signing Loewen. Cito Gaston's even working the phones! Loewen would have to be paid $700g per and require a spot on the 40-man roster? He hasn't had an AB since 2006? Meh, he's Canadian, suspend logic and giterdone!

Some payroll clarity from Cathal Kelly: the Jays have $82.4 million committed to 11 players for next year and JP's saying he's counting on a $100 million payroll next year. Let see, that means... less than $17.6 million to play with? I can't fathom the stupidity of even considering allocating pretty much all of that money to AJ Burnett, but I've been on this so much you wouldn't be out of line calling me a broken record.

JP's playing coy, but let's face it: the Jays really can't afford to keep BJ Ryan and dumping Overbay on someone (like the Mariners?) would create a bit more flexibility. Call it a yard sale rather than a fire sale if you like, but some roster changes need to be made over the winter. Mark it down, Donnie.

Further confirmation that baseball is far down Jeff Blair's priority list.

PSA of the day: just got a cheque for $204.26 from the federales for my day of work as a registration officer in South Sarnia on election day. Sure, a couple of crusty old people told me to go fornicate myself when I wouldn't let them vote with just their bus pas and one of those old red and white health cards with no photo as ID, but it was a pretty easy gig on the whole. Call Elections Canada before the next one (spring? summer? fall? your guess is as good as mine) if you're interested in tapping this semi-lucrative source of income.

-- Johnny Was