An Uncharacteristically Bad Trade

Word is that Robinzon Diaz, he of the 4-AB cup of coffee and awful injury luck this year, is the PTBNL (player to be named later, what? you didn't know that by now?) headed to the Pirates in exchange for utilityman Jose Bautista. We can all breathe a collective sigh of relief that Russ Adams is still a Jays' farmhand.

Now, I'm going to leave aside the fact that Bautista would probably be a non-tender candidate in the winter had he remained a Pirate because of his cost after arbitration, thus making him freely available had JP held off a few more weeks. And I also won't mention that he's really not that much better, offensively or defensively, than Hector Luna, who's already in the Jays system. Or that the Jays had no better than a 3% chance of making the playoffs when Bautista was acquired and really didn't need to add a veteran. I didn't just say all of those things and am now moving on to Diaz...

Let's take a look at the young catcher. He has his flaws (the typical Latin disdain for the base on balls, defensive rawness), but he was always a good hitter for average and had chalked up slow, but steady improvements in his slugging percentage starting at A ball at age 20 right up to his short stint at AAA last year at 23. And then he was struck by an assortment of injuries this year (a bad ankle sprain cost him 2 and a half months) that really hampered the incremental progress he'd been making and robbed him of at least a short-term stint with the Jays.

Of the three top catchers in the system (Diaz/Jeroloman/Arrencibia), Diaz was the closest to being big league ready and I would have given him a mulligan on 2008 and let him try to make the big club as Barajas' backup in spring training. When we had three young catchers with upside we had the luxury of letting them develop at their own speed, albeit with a bit of friendly competition to spur them on. Now we're down to two and should one flame out Guillermo Quiroz-style, then all that depth behind the plate is gone.

JP Ricciardi rarely makes bad trades and that is to his credit as a GM. Still, when the initial speculation was that he'd be sending Russ Adams or a redundant reliever like Frasor (non-tender candidate) or Tallet (probably would've been traded for something like Bautista in the off season) over to the Pirates, I could accept the logic of trading for Bautista. But to give up a younger player who might've been useful in 2009 as a stopgap until JPA's ready for veteran filler with only the longest of Hail Mary shots at the post-season? And where do you find playing time for this guy next year with Hill and Rolen hopefully healthy and J-Mac, Scutaro, and Inglett already filling out your bench?

Time will tell, but I'd say JP got snookered on this one.

-- Johnny Was

See You in September?

As much fun as it was to slap around Beckett and the Beantowners this afternoon, the chill winds of non-contention turn our thoughts, of course, to September call-ups. That's not to say that there isn't some TINY hope we can charge back into contention but looking at the upcoming schedule, my most optimistic projections for the AL East still leaves the Jays 3-5 games out. Not that finishing within 5 games of the WC and ahead of the Yankees wouldn't be a salve on my disappointments over this season, it definitely would, but I can't hold back my opinionating under the illusion of contention.

So naturally, the thoughts turn to the future - whether might our young players depart hence?

Well, for the eager, yet uninformed, fan, the obvious assumption is the Man, the Myth, the Machine - Travis Snider. Turns out, though, that said assumption would be wrong. At least, according to Jordan Bastian. The reason for the error? Said eager fans are forgetting the Arizona Fall League. In general, a player who's going to the AFL doesn't get a September call up. Bastian informed us Friday that Snider, along with JP Arencibia and Scott Campbell were already ticketed to be three of the Jays six players to head west. The other three will be pitchers, as yet unnamed, but we can - of course! - speculate.

The obvious candidates at first glance are: Brett Cecil, Rickey Romero, Davis Romero, Scott Richmond, Brad Mills, and Robert Ray. Why Ray you asked? Because this is the year he (along with Rickey Romero) would have to be added to the 40 man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft and so the Jays might want a look at him against tough competition.

How to whittle that list? OK, first things first - it's pretty much a given Rickey-Ro is going. Also, the Wiki article on the AFL states that a team can only include one foreign player among it's alloted six and that player from a region which doesn't have a winter league (I am assuming that in this context being Canadian is not "foreign"). That rules out Davis Romero.

So we have 4 possibilities for 2 spots. Another factor to consider is the "Rule of Thumb" concerning stretching young pitchers. As I have alluded to before, the Jays have tightly managed Brett Cecil's IP in order to get him through a full season. The rule says that you should limit a young pitcher to no more than 30 IP over his previous high total for a single season. There is a notable pattern of injury history when this rule is violated (see Fausto Carmona for the latest example).

Cecil's previous high before this season was 112. S o far this season he has 99.1 and he has about 3 starts left for the Chiefs. If we postulate that he posts 15-18 IP the rest of the way then he has no more than 25 available to him before he hits the ceiling. Given that the AFL has a 32 game schedule, and a SP might expect to make six starts, that put's Cecil right on the fringe of where the team would want him to go. All that said, he might go and pitch in relief.

Brad Mills is right at the ceiling now with three regular starts left. He could conceivably be shut down before the end of the AA season. He's not going. Ray is in a similar situation.

That leads me to believe that Scott Richmond becomes the rather obvious choice. I can't think of a single good argument for not sending him. And given the lack of an obvious third candidate, count Cecil in too.

So there you have, friends and neighbors, six players who almost certainly will NOT be September call ups. what does that leave us with? We know from previous years (hat tip to Thomas at Batters Box) that JP's Jays tend to call up about 5 players - usually three pitchers, a catcher, and one other guy. It should be noted here, in answer to the persistent misunderstanding, that a September call-up does NOT start the service-time clock that seems to be on everyone's mind the last few years.

The catcher is the most obvious call - JPA has other plans, Jeroloman isn't hitting AAA pitching yet, and Thigpen seems to have forgotten how. The above-pictured Robinzon Diaz is penciled in as the front-runner for the back-up job next year and has already had a couple of cups of coffee, he's in like Flynn.

Two of the three pitchers are easy calls - Brian Wolfe and Jeremy Accardo (or whoever is demoted for him if he's activated within the next two weeks). The third guy is almost certainly John Parrish. That would leave Davis Romero on the outside looking in here too. I, for one, think the young man has done all he needs to do to earn the look, and that the team might want to at least let Arny look him over in anticipation of his being a candidate for next year's pen. I can't predict D-Ro will be added, but neither would I be surprised if they found room in the new clubhouse for one more guy.

Finally, the one other position player. Some will call for Coats here, or some crusty never-will-be like Hector Luna, or ride a dark horse like David Smith. But as Thomas pointed out, the guy who best suits the situation is erstwhile disappointment, Russ Adams.

Besides having the higher profile within the organization, and the ability to play (at least to some degree) multiple positions, Adams is facing a potential removal from the 40 man roster (IMO, he won't be but at least there is some noise about it) and, more importantly, the man has been ON FIRE since the AAA All Star Break. In 104 post-ASB at bats, Adams is hitting .356 - .415 - .558 - .973 and he's gotten hotter as he moved into August. In fact, if Adams had not had the sort of June (at the plate) that a pitcher would have been ashamed of, he'd have had a respectable year. Take out June and his numbers look like this: .285 - .372 - .463 - .835

I don't see the Buck Coats and the Hector Lunas of the world having a better argument than that. Off topic but I'd really like to see Adams get a shot at playing 2B in the majors for some team next year. He is probably better right now than Tad Iguchi, or Adam Kennedy, or Luis Castillo, to name just a few.

There is also the possibility that Scott Rolen will take one more try before calling it a season. I'm not sure if you technically call it a September call up but he may well be added to the roster on September 1.

So, to filter all that down into one sentence: your September call-ups will be Brian Wolfe, Jeremy Accardo, John Parrish, Robinzon Diaz, and probably Russ Adams, with Davis Romero also a possibility.

Now you know.

~WillRain

Heads Up

Nice Article on The Franchise over at Baseball America. Thankfully, it's not one of those behind the pay wall.

An excerpt:

"But he's tremendously competitive. I've seen him stand up to a couple of his teammates for doing some stuff that you would expect a veteran guy to do. He understands what's right and what's wrong in this game even though he's only in his second full season. So he does have a lot of leadership qualities and the guys really feed off of him, the way he does his business. He's a clown in the afternoon when we're out stretching, taking BP and all that—he has a good time—but when it's time to play the game, when those lights go on, you're talking about a really competitive kid."

It's a good read and will make you more excited, if that were possible, about seeing him in T.O.

*****
In regards to last night's news on Brian Jeroloman getting bumped to AAA, my guess about journeyman Erik Kratz going to AA in his place is correct. Also, Robinson Diaz got the call back to Syracuse as well so apparently Jeroloman is still looking at splitting time, though we don't know yet if Diaz will be catching or playing DH on a regular basis. Also worth noting is that Chip Cannon is headed for the DL. Does that mean Curtis Thigpen will play regularly at 1B? It's too bad the way Thigpen has collapsed this year.

~WillRain

Bring Out Your Dead!

The Jays are about to embark on a crazy 10-game roadtrip that will take them through Cleveland, where they'll see 3 lefty starters over 4 games. Now that Adam Lind has been sent back to Syracuse for more needless seasoning, Shannon Stewart is the everyday LF *head-shaking* and Matt Stairs is down a platoon mate at DH. Over his career, Stairs has hit lefties relatively poorly (.749 OPS). Admittedly, he did well against southpaws last year (.818 OPS in limited ABs), but it's probably not wise to expose him unduly.

Robinzon Diaz would've got the call for the Cleveland series (he's been mashing lefties in Syracuse and Gibby likes the idea of taking a third catcher into National League parks) but alas, injury has befallen him for the second time this season. We're gonna need a lefty masher right quick and JP's gonna have to be creative digging one up.

This is more than a weekend fix, really. A lefty masher to platoon at DH and pinch hit is of more use at this point than a 12th reliever who appears once every vernal equinox. Here are a bunch of retreads who are available on the cheap:

1) Kevin Mench: a 30-year-old former and sort-of-current Ranger who has hit an eye popping .305/.361/.563 against LHP over 704 career ABs. JP coveted him back in 2005 when the club was offensively challenged, but then Mench went out and broke Doc's leg with a wicked line drive. He couldn't find a big league gig by spring training and is currently toiling at AAA Oklahoma, a Rangers affiliate. He's not the first OF in line for a promotion to the big club--Nelson Cruz is making a mockery of PCL pitching--and could probably be acquired for nothing of real value.

2) Jason Botts: you'll remember him from the 2 series the Jays played against the Rangers last month. "Go" Botts is the quintessential AAAA player (.302/.401/.541 in 2+ seasons at AAA vs. .230/.325/.344 in 326 career PAs in the bigs) and was just DFA'd. Rotoworld figures he's unlikely to clear waivers, but it's doubtful he'd cost anything you'd you'd really miss. He can play first and left, which would enable Gibby to DH Stew when you needed both of lineup at the same time.

3) Josh Phelps: a familiar name. He kind of sucked at most aspects of the game, all except mashing lefties (.864 OPS career). He had a nifty little .306/.399/.503 season in 157 ABs off the bench last year with the Yankees and Pirates seeing action mostly against southpaws. To his credit, he's really not that bad a hitter against righties, can play a better first than BA Barajas and could catch in a pinch. After seeing AJ Burnett come out of the bully deep into an extra inning game with the Rangers earlier this year, would really really be surprised if J-Mac actually was brought into a game as an emergency catcher after injuries to Zaun and BA? He's currently stashed away at AAA Memphis (Cards affiliate).

4) Mike Sweeney: the original fragile flower. He's been made redundant in Oakland since the Big Turd acquisition and is finding ABs few and far between with Daric Barton hogging most of the PT at first (because he's younger and better). He has a career .839 OPS against lefties. I've never been a fan. I don't know why, but I cheered when AJ Burnett beaned him in the head in the 2007 home opener.

5) Mike Piazza: you might be familiar with the work of the greatest hitting catcher of all time. He's currently drawing social security and is rumoured to be waiting for a gig that allows him to catch the odd game. Okie, we might be able to accomodate that request. It would be inappropriate to cite the career numbers of a semi-retired 39-year-old, so let's go with this: in any injury-marred '07 he put up a .748 OPS against lefties, but a gaudy 1.072 when healthy in '06.

Any other names we should add to the list? Thoughts?

If I had my pick, I'd go with Mench. No special requests, can play the OF, and cheap like the budgie.

-- Johnny Was