First word on the '09 budget?

Hat tip to The Drunks who picked up on this item from Joel Sherman:

See the Canadian economy is in freefall, as well. As recently as October, the Jays thought they would be able to preserve their $97 million payroll, maybe even inch above it. They have won 87, 83 and 86 games the last three years. But now they are targeting an $83 million payroll.

There's actually a lot about the Jays in the column but I'll stick to the money issue for now.

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Edit: Just to be clear, I have no reason to assume this report is accurate, or that the source Sherman heard it from is accurate. Lord knows misdirection is an art form in the Jays' front office. What follows is based on the assumption, for the sake of discussion, that it might be true.
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I've reviewed the Jays' payroll situation before and without plowing that same ground, I can tell you that $83 million is almost exactly right on what the current roster would project to (with Snider on the LF/DH I make it as just a hair under $82 million).

Now, the common assumption among Jays watchers is that Jason Frasor won't be on the team next year and that Brian Tallet is a leading candidate to be dealt. Between the two of them, that's about $2 million in savings (combined they will make about $3 but you have to pay their replacements around $400,000 apiece). So let's take as a working figure that right this minute, they have about $3 million to play with.

Here are other players who have some potential of not being with the Jays by Spring Training:

1. Jose Bautista: Should make around $2. 5 million at arbitration (or via settlement) - Once you replaced him on the roster, you are saving about $2 million here as well. Bautista has two things he brings to the Jays. First, versatility - he can play 3B, 2B, the outfield corners and, I expect, would get schooled at 1B during spring training. That said, Joe Inglett can do al that too. The second thing is much more intriguing - he pounds LHP. For an offense strapped team that will potentially have two young LH hitters in the line-up, along with Overbay who most years struggles against lefties (last year his OPS splits were .865 vs RH and .540 vs LH), that is a skill well worth $2 million.
If you went with a straight platoon of Overbay and Bautista at 1B next year and they replicated their history, you'd be looking at a guy - we'll call him Overtista, who looks very very much like Joey Votto last year, who had the ninth best OPS among qualifying 1B in the majors last year. So he's not a commodity we just kick to the curb - we'd have to be using that money in an important way.

2. B.J. Ryan: $10 mil per over the next two seasons - JP strictly denies it is an option he's considering, and the market is flooded with closers at the moment so you'd be selling in a buyers market. But if you seriously were going to play for someone like Furcal or Bradley, this is the deal that you'd most easily be able to compensate for internally. My guess here is that Ryan won't be moved in a buyer's market unless JP has a signing lines up which demands it.

3. Lyle Overbay: $7 million each year over the next two - A deal of Overbay virtually guarantees Snider opens 2009 in the majors. Even at that, the Jays would have to be signing a free agent DH or outfielder so that would be a sideways move, and not one that would facilitate someone like Furcal (unless the Jays find a way to trade for a cheap DH like one of the excess 1B/DH types in Kansas City - I'll take Kila please!). There's a relatively thin market for a league average 1B (albeit one with excellent defense) - Giants, Orioles, Mariners maybe. I could come up with multi-move scenerios which I would like but honestly, I don't see any of them playing out.

4. Brian Tallet: Arbitration eligible, probably looking at around $1.2 million - i mentioned him above, not a huge savings here but quality LHRP are in demand and he might produce a nicereturn. The market is good enough that giving him away or non-tendering him would be foolish given the relatively small savings. Frasor, otoh, will get close to $2 million and RH pitchers are not so in-demand. We'd be VERY blessed if we could trade him.

5. Scott Downs: $7.75 total over the next two years - this is a very team friendly deal which makes a guy who's already one of the best even more valuable. I can't see the Jays dealing him unless the return is VERY impressive (for instance, suppose the Royals would deal Avilas and Kila Ka'ahulie for him).

6. Vernon Wells: $10 mil in 2009, as much as $107 million over the following five years if he doesn't opt out after 2011 - The common wisdom is that Wells is too expensive to deal in this market and that's likely true, but a team which seems to have no money worries like the Cubs or the yankees might bite - you wouldn't get full value for him though. if the Jays are serious that they intend to play to win in 2009 and not write the season off, Wells doesn't get dealt this winter. Maybe next year if the bad economy seems to have no end in sight by then.

7. Scott Rolen: $11 mil each for the next two seasons - a lot of fans talk about "getting rid of" Rolen. That's the most foolish possibility on this list. Casey Blake, who is a marginally worse player when Rolen is struggling, and a vastly worse player when Rolen is right, is about to make $6+ million per year - that's the market for a league average hitter with a mediocre glove. It's also what you'd have to spend if you had to sign a replacement for him. Even laying aside the difficulty in finding a team that will gamble that his recovery is for real, the savings isn't remotely worth the downgrade.

8. John McDonald: $1.9 mil in 2009 - I don't expect this unless the Jays did land a new candidate for SS, be it Furcal or some younger and cheaper option, but if such were to happen, a deal which would shuffle McDoanld off to a team with a hole - to the Padres for Scott Hairston for instance (who's arb eligible and would have a similar contract) but the savings, if any, would be negligible.

9. Alex Rios: $5.9 in 2009, $65.6 million over the next 6 years - JP downplayed this possibility and while I find his explanation silly, I tend to agree. if Rios plays to his ability, his contract is a bargain and you'd have to get a real prize to deal him.

Mix and match until your heart's content. There are real possibilities there, and more far-fetched ideas. As I said least night, I'd be happy to see some smaller less-noticed deals that didn't remake the roster.

More on the meetings later tonight I'm sure.

~Will

Black Tuesday

On the same day that news arrives about the passing of team owner Ted Rogers (which news I will let my Canadian co-authors speak to) comes THIS disturbing report that the Jays have laid off 20 front office workers - many if not all from the sales department.

Now, at first blush my reaction was "Twenty? Big deal." But the article goes on note that it was the biggest single lay-off by a sports franchise ever.

Yikes.

A note of caution - the reporter here is Marty York who's reputation for accuracy rivals JP's reputation for honesty. I don't think he could possibly get wrong the fact that there WERE layoffs...but the bit about it being the biggest ever - or that little nugget about the Christmas party being canceled - harder to believe.

That said, IF all this IS true, I can't think of any spin to put on this that sounds good for the major league team. I suppose it's good news for Travis Snider and you young starting pitchers but otherwise - I'm out of answers. We can rationalize all we want about why the economy shouldn't cause the Jays much difficulty given the profitability of Rogers Communications overall...but...you can't really dispute the fact that it looks like they are going into a cost-cutting mode. One of the laid off workers noted, the combined salaries of all these people "wouldn't even make half of what Burnett would get for one year". In fact, it's worse than that. Pay each of those people $100K a year (which is likely more than they actually make) and figure that much again for the benefits and such that go along with employing a person (again, too much) and you still come up with less than the Jays paid David Eckstien in 2008 - less than a third of what AJ made.

In reality, these people MIGHT have cost the Jays $2 million a year, max. If times are indeed that hard for the Jays, then all bets are off when it comes to the team on the field.

Hold me...I'm a'scared...

~WillRain

Update: it comes to my attention that Jordan Bastian has a new article up looking forward to the winter meetings in which he quotes Paul Beeston thusly:

"We're not going down to [a payroll of] $40 or $50 million," Beeston said. "It's either status quo or you're going to add to it. If we don't get [Burnett], we're not pulling back. We're not going to be selling players."

Unlike JP, Beeston doesn't have a reputation for intentionally misleading the public. Let's hope he's as good as his word again and the suits don't make a liar our of him.

More on Money and Payroll

The AP reports, via ESPN, that Paul Beeston spoke to the money question at the awards dinner held by the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers association. His remarks were in reply to a question about the affordability of keeping Burnett. The pertinent excerpt is this:

Paul Beeston believes the Blue Jays still have a shot at re-signing pitcher A.J. Burnett.

With the economy sinking, however, the team's interim CEO acknowledged Thursday that Toronto might choose to save the $24 million Burnett passed up this offseason rather than spend it on other free agents.

"It's a possibility," Beeston said. "We can spend $100 million, but if it doesn't make sense, why do it?"

Now, while it is just vague enough to not pin Beeston down to any specific course of action, it seems to me the proper interpretation is this:

The Jays HAVE - and CAN spend - $100 million on the 2009 payroll

BUT

If there is not a way to spend it that makes sense, they will not spend on filler just to avoid the perception that they are cutting payroll. Depending on how you count it there is no less than $15 million and possibly as much as $22 million between what it would cost to pay the players we already have, if we added no one else to the 25-man roster and what the Jays spent in 2008.

That's money the Jays can either spend, or bank, depending on the circumstances which are available to them.

That, in my opinion, is an entirely sensible course and one all of us should have been able to figure out without being told. Of course, that would require us assuming the team will act sensibly and admittedly, baseball teams do not always do so.

My guess is that the off-season will be frustrating for fans hooked on big deals and big signings, but will ultimately be rewarding. I expect JP to sit back and wait until he sees an opportunity to address a need at a price (in cash or players) which makes sense. I approve.

~WillRain

Hard Times?

Every year in the off-season the obsessive fan like me wonders and speculates on what kind of budget their team has got to work with. As in most years, the Jays are being fairly tight-lipped about that but they have done nothing to dispel the idea that the budget will remain in the same general neighborhood as in 2008. That figure, depending on the source you choose, was right at $98 million (All my figures are from the invaluable Cott's Baseball Contracts).

So, let's assume that the team is going to want to stay on the low side of $100 million - what does that mean for off-season spending?

Here's a list of the Jays guaranteed contracts for 2009:

Halladay - $14.25 million
Rolen - $11 million
Ryan - $10 million
Wells - $1.5 million ($8.5 million bonus payment)
Overbay - $7 million
Rios - $5.9 million
Downs - $3.75 million
Hill - $2.59 million
Barajas - $2.5 million
McDonald - $1.9 million
Scutaro - $1.1 million

Total: $61.49 ($69.99 with the bonus)

Right away you, like me, are asking "What the hell is the deal with Wells' pay?"

Good question. Truth is, no one outside the front offices of major league baseball teams really knows. Every time salary discussions come up it's said that the bonus doesn't count, but if you add up the 2008 payroll without the $8.5 million bonus scheduled for last year, it doesn't add up to the total team payroll reported everywhere. That being the case, I will henceforth count his bonus as part of his salary except for one bit of speculation I'll get to at the end.

This year's arbitration eligible Jays are Bautista, Accardo, Frasor, and Tallet. If all these players were to remain on the roster (and speculation is heavy that Frasor definitely won't and Tallet will be floated as a trade chip) that's about $7 million, in my opinion.

That leaves 10 open spots, plus Marcum who will receive a major league salary but won't be on the 25 man roster. Fill in Lind, Inglett, Carlson, Janssen, Litsch, Purcey, and McGowan at pre-arbitration salaries (along with Marcum) and you have roughly $4 million at most.

All told that's about $81 million. And there are three other spots. Reserve catcher, DH, and probably another outfielder. So if you wanted to throw in a big money FA like Giambi or some such . . . you are doing so against an available budget of $17-19 million.

That said, if you get Frasor and Tallet off the roster, you pick up a couple more million (when you adjust for having Wolfe and Romero or someone in their place at league minimum), if you make the Overbay rumors come true that's $7 million more - find a taker for Ryan and that's $10 million. So in theory you could double the available case to $38 million.

Sounds pretty good, eh? But you can't do a proper job of understanding this without looking ahead to 2010. In that season the commitments to those already under contract add up to $82.45 million (including Wells' bonus) and arbitration eligibles include Accardo, League, Janssen, Marcum, Bautista and McGowan (again, assuming Frasor and Tallet are gone). My guess is that Bautista won't be on the 2010 roster either. So that will take the team over $90 million for 12 players. If every other player on the team was pre-arbitration you'd be right around $97 million.

What does that mean? it means that the $19 million which is in play in 2009 is only available (short of a pay raise in 2009. Now, I am of the opinion that the payroll will trickle up 3-5% just on natural inflation from year to year, but even with that you are only looking at maybe a $5 million cushion in 2010.

So if the Jays sign a Bradley or a Furcal or some such to a multi-year deal one of two things must be true - either the 2010 payroll is going up, or Overbay and Ryan will not be on the 2010 roster. Maybe both will be true depending on the amount of commitment made. They don't have to be dealt this off-season, unless the team has some impressive plan to sign Manny or something, but they would have to go before 2010.

Simple, huh? Try reconciling all that with the "attempts" to keep AJ in the fold.

Well, there's one more complication which puts a lot of what I just said in potential doubt - that signing bonus mystery. When the Jays signed Frank Thomas they paid him a small base and a big bonus. Wells had a big bonus paid out in 8.5 million installments over three years (do you realize his official salary in 2008 was only $500,000?). The implication of that is that you could, in theory, sign a player like Milton Bradley (just to use him for an example) to a deal like this:

2009 - Bonus $1 million, Salary $7 million
2010 - Bonus $7 million, Salary $ 1 million
2011 - Salary $8 milion

Such a deal would help avoid payroll pressure in 2010 according to the mythology that the signing bonus isn't salary. The problem with that is, as I observed earlier, when you see a team's total payroll listed - it always includes the signing bonuses. Confused yet?

I think that's the goal.

So I'm going to boil it down to a bottom line, now that you have seen the information that informs my assumptions:

The Jays have up to $19 million available as of this minute and likely at least $21 million as of the tender deadline. They have, at a generous estimate, $6 million in flexibility in 2010. so they cannot sign big multi-year deals unless they expect to shed some of the multi-year deals they already have. The most likely being Lyle Overbay and BJ Ryan. Expect to see both players available this off-season, and if not dealt even more available in July and next winter. It's almost a certainty nether will be on the team in 2010 unless the Jays get a significant payroll increase from Rogers.

~WillRain

Point of Order

I should include this as a comment on Johnny's excellent post below but I want to drag it out into the daylight (like I did a couple weeks back with the idea that AJ could still be dealt in August if need be) so I get credit for saying it ;)

Something I haven't seen anyone else mention but is, I think, highly relevant as we look towards next years is that 2008 is the final year of the $210 million budget arc announced before the 2006 season. That fact, combined with the way the current payroll obligations spike in 2010 leads me to believe that there's something afoot the Jays are not saying yet, to wit - there's a big payroll boost coming. And given the fact that people tend to invoke certain "milestones" in such announcements, I'm going to take a blind shot in the dark and say something like $400 million over the next three years.

You heard it here first.


Other thoughts on Johnny's piece (since I'm already stroking my ego with a seperate post):

a. If we have to sign a starter in the offseason (that's not AJ) I'm all about Derek Lowe.
He's projectable, probably won't hold out for five years, and is second tier in terms of contract.

b. If I'm wrong about the payroll boost, then I think taking your run at Manny as Job One. Whatever we do or don't do about the rotation (save locking up Burnett) is secondary. If Ramirez is our DH and Doc/Marcum/Purcey/Litsch/Richmond, Parrish, Cecil, whoever is our rotation we are better equipped than if we add (gad no) someone like Jon Garland and then a good-but-not-great DH for 6 or 7 million.

c. I may be totally off base here but the synergy between the example Doc sets, the comfort zone with Arny, and general flakiness gives me the hunch that AJ will defy all logic and expectations and accept a buy-out of his option....maybe we have to add an option year to the end but I just have a strong feeling that he'll try to emulate Doc and lay aside maximizing his earning opportunity to stay with the Jays.

~WillRain