Sometimes you make me want to say so long...

I'm not quite yet prepared to offer my comments on the weekend series that effectively ended the Jays season, so let us make do with a MLBTR report (via Jerry Howarth at The Fan) that Brad Arnsberg figures AJ Burnett WILL re-sign with the Jays. Not resign like Richard Nixon, but re-sign.

Commence total plagarization NOW:

Arnsberg's heart says Burnett will stay in Toronto. Burnett's wife loves it there. Arnsberg had multiple heart-to-heart conversations with Burnett discussing the pitcher's future, and leans toward Burnett returning. Arnsberg speculates that it could take another year on the contract to bring him back.

If this is indeed true, it would put JP/JP's successor in a very difficult position because an offer from the AJ camp to have him stay in exchange for a third year would be rather magnanimous considering what he could get from scoundrel Hank Steinbrenner on the open market. That said, I don't necessarily think it's a good idea to reach an agreement on those terms.

Prefacing the following with this:

* AJ is a very talented pitcher who has been superb this month with the team on the fringes of a playoff race
* the Jays will be worse off without him unless they find a replacement outside the organization, and there really isn't a free agent equivilant available in his price range
* I like him as a personality on a team that's otherwise pretty square (looking at you, Lyle Overbay)

Ok, now...

Remembering the maxim that you don't pay a player for the season he just had, it's worth noting that with his next start AJ will almost certainly establish a career high for innings pitched after already posting his best single-season strikeout and win totals. As much as I hate saying it, this was after all only the second fully healthy season (both contract years) of his career. You just can't bank on getting anything like this from AJ ever again.

While his overall numbers this year are very good, but there was a considerable degree of Jeckyl and Hyde-ism: he had two horrid months (April and June), one mediocre one (August), two solid ones (May and July), and it looks like he's on his way to a superhuman September. Every time I hear someone say they saw signs of maturity in AJ this year I kind of wonder what he might've done out of the gate had he not wrecked his fingernail in his car door after what I've always assumed was an offseason temper tantrum.

I really, truly want to see the good, but can't overlook the bad.

Back in February I had a look at AJ's most similar pitchers at baseball-reference and found a depressing list of once-promising power pitchers who flamed out spectacularly in their early 30s (AJ will be 32 going into next season). I'd reckon mightily that whichever team chooses to lock him up through his ages 35/36 seasons is going to see very little--if any--return on their investment towards the end of the deal.

Could AJ help the Jays in '09? Most likely yes, but not so much that a team with limited resources should run the risk of locking him up long-term. At some point in the coming weeks we're going to do a comprehensive, omnibus look at what we think the Jays should do going forward, but I'm coming to the opinion that JP/JP's successor needs to make a big splash this off season (a la 2005/2006) or just batten down the hatches and wait for an infusion of youth (Arencibia, Campbell, Cecil most notably) in 2010.

I'm gonna have to say punt on AJ now, keep those tasty draft picks, and try to patch up the rotation next year with a a cheap one-year turd blossom. (The Oracle likes Carl Pavano, who has pitched very Scott Richmond-ily since coming back from an assortment of faked injuries in August.) But no, I won't celebrate the news if this is what ultimately ends up happening.

-- Johnny Was

The Wheel Is Indeed Turning

There's always a future risk to your credibility when you make bold statements with an online pseudonym, but hearing that The Oracle agrees with your point of view helps wash away most of the self doubt. (I'm talking about my incredulity at the Jose Bautista-Robinzon Diaz trade.) Still, after some reflection I think I might be second guessing my own second guessing on the deal, if such a thing is even possible.

Looking at the acquisition in isolation, it really doesn't make enough sense to warrant the dollar cost to this mid-market team. Bautista will be kind of expensive for a utilityman if he's retained next year after going through through arbitration. He's making $1.8 million this year and the deepest pay cut allowable (20%) puts him at a floor of $1.44 million, with a ceiling probably just north of $2 million. He's been pretty steady over the past three years and I'd be mildly surprised if you got him for less than he's making this year.

The money is one thing, but Bautista's really not that much of better of a hitter than Scutaro. More pop, yes, and this is a club that lacks for homeruns, but over the past three years Bautista has OPS+'d 94, 96, 89 compared to 96, 89, 87 from Scutaro. Bautista has hit lefties well (though not Kevin Mench-well) over his career (123 OPS+), but I wouldn't exactly call him a lefty-masher. He also has less defensively flexibility than any of the current bench players being unable to play short. As I said the other day, I just don't see the point of keeping Bautista around for a 3-man battle royale for UTIL playing time with Scoot and Inglett capable of doing a bit more with the glove and pretty much the same with the bat.

And here's the thing: maybe it's not a 3-man battle royale for UTIL playing time JP's envisioning after all.

I'm wondering if the Bautista trade signals that JP has Inglett pencilled in for starting duties at second next year (with Hill to short), leaving Scoot, Bautista and J-Mac as his 3 main non-catcher bench guys. Now, that makes sense, in fact, it just might be a classic JP bargain bin coup.

The free agent SS market is what it is, a bunch of early to mid-30s vets with good-ish track records and gaudy price tags. None you'd enthusiastically welcome aboard in 2009, well, none I would. I'd want to avoid going more than 2 years on a guy like Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria seems to have angered Jobu and should be avoided entirely, while Rafael Furcal would cost the moon and the stars. And for what, really?

Furcal's career line is .287/.352/.412 and he's seen as a catalyst out of the leadoff spot. He plays good defense and has speed, posting 25 stolen bases in 2007. For that, you'll have to go at least 3 years at $13 million per to even enter the bidding for his services.

And what of Joe Inglett, a 30-year old sophomore who's controllable for as long we want him? He's got a remarkably similar career line of .296/.348/.415, albeit in far fewer ABs, though he'd been putting up that sort of line through his long minor league career. If Inglett can play adequate D at second, and Aaron Hill can improve on his play at short (with more tutelage from defensive whiz Brian Butterfield), that's a big savings passing on a few dozen stolen bases...

Inglett's not the same player as Furcal and I'm not attempting to pretend that he compares in all facets of the game. But if it saves more than $10 million making him a regular over chasing a free agent who's no guarantee to hit any better, I think I'm comfortable with a bigger picture that includes Bautista in a bench role. Especially if there's a hard budget and limited cash to bring in the starter (like Derek Lowe) and DH (like Jason Giambi) so desperately needed if the 2009 Jays are really planning on being competitive.

-- Johnny Was

Recapping Absolutely Nothing

Do you give JP points for trying? He proposed more wacky trades this afternoon than some of my fantasy poolies at 3 a.m. on Sunday morning after a deep and meaningful session with a delicious bottle of Wiser's De Luxe, but it all ended up being for naught. Well, there's fodder for conversation at least.

Backing it up now... why was the GM of a club that, while still .500, has been decimated by injuries and has no realistic hope of even getting a sniff of the playoffs attempting to buy at the deadline? Now, I've sort of phrased this question to make it seem like he was insane and/or three sheets to the wind for asking on the two players he did, but I don't necessarily see it that way.

Under the right circumstances, Jason Bay would be a terrific addition to this team now and in 2009 for a bunch of obvious reasons. He can actually hit like a man unlike all of the current Jays, fair weather fans would probably take interest in the team again with a bona fide Canadian star on the roster, etc. But this was a bidding war JP really had no chance of winning and I don't understand why he'd even bother making the call if he wasn't going to entertain an offer of something like Shaun Marcum and Adam Lind; Bay is a legitimate 130 OPS+ hitter signed reasonably for next year whereas outlanders probably see Marcum as a talented young starter albeit with major durability issues and Lind as a good young hitter who probably falls short of the level of production Bay's putting up now.

The offer Tampa Bay put on the table for Bay of Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemannwas competitive; the former still has something to prove with the bat in the high minors, but the latter is ready to join a major league rotation and have some success now. Still, Lind/Marcum would have been a far superior package and it was probably unreasonable of Buccos GM Neal Huntington to ask for both. Would you be surprised if he just wanted to blow JP off with an exorbitant offer so he could keep the line free for Theo Epstein?

Apparently there was no follow-up conversation between the Jays and Pirates, so we'll never know if JP couldn't have talked them down into a package based around other players, or perhaps convinced Huntington to add a starter like, say, Ian Snell.

The package the Pirates ultimately settled on--Andy LaRoche (legit blue chipper), Brandon Moss (probably a 4th OF), Craig Hansen (undistinguished bullpen fodder), Bryan Morris (young starter in A ball, they all show promise then)--was a fairly decent haul for one player to a club that's going to be rebuilding for some time to come. There's no way we could/should have offered this many players in trade for Bay. If we still want him, he'll be a free agent 15 months from now.

The Raul Ibanez flirtation (reportedly, from no credible source, for Purcey and League) has wider and more disturbing implications.

Now, it's possible that JP had some genius mojo working and offered up Lyle Overbay for Ibanez straight up. Now, before you ask why the M's would have interest in a 31-year-old glove man with declining power who plays at a what's supposed to be an offensive position, keep in mind that they've been trotting Miguel Cairo out at the position since Richie Sexson got run out of town. We get Overbay out the way, move Lind to first and give Travis Snider an opportunity to punch his way up to the bigs next year.

Overbay is from the Pacific Northwest (not that I give a shit what's best for him) and the $6 million he's owed this year and next really isn't going to break the bank. The M's would get a local boy who can provide at least league average offense and lose two months of an aging vet who probably shouldn't be playing the field (baseball-wise at least) beyond this year. Ibanez walks, then JP gets the two compensation picks and begins the search for a new DH (Manny Ramirez) smelling like a rose. Prospects for 2009 are bright.

The more likely scenario? JP's probably thinking, what cheap bat can I slot into the DH hole for 2009? Raul Ibanez? Why the fuck not? He'd cost less than Frank Thomas did. I offer him arbitration at the end of the year, if he accepts he's our man, if he doesn't I get the picks. Done and dusted.

There's a problem here.

Ibanez will be 37 next year and while he's been putting up some nice counting stats over the past 7 seasons, he's probably nothing better than a 110 OPS+ hitter in 2009 with some minor age-related decline factored in. That's just not good enough for an offense chalk full of players whose offensive ceiling is just that: about 10% above average at best. Not to beat this point to death, but if you bring a guy like Ibanez on board knowing this you're counting on Rolen and Overbay to rebound, for Rios to get his head out of his ass, for Vernon Wells to hit like he's paid to. You bring in a bigger bat and there's more wiggle room for a bit of disappointment from the current crop of... disappointments.

If I'm assuming right, JP "still believes in his core" and needs a third consecutive dose of failure before he's convinced that more significant upgrades are necessary. He just hasn't accepted that he needs to add a major bat like Manram or Pat Burrell if his club is to entertain the notion of being competitive. JP just can't seem to sink this short putt.

I leaving today feeling disappointed, convinced that if JP stays on the job after the end of the season he's going to try to paper over the handful of fatal flaws in his club rather than make the bold strokes that could really, truly fix it for 2009. Nevermind the flotsam and jetsam that didn't get moved, I'm more concerned that he tipped his cards for a highly disappointing free agent season to come.

-- Johnny Was