Should the Jays Pursue Greinke? A Word of Caution About Pitcher WAR

It's certainly no secret that the Jays need starting pitching (2 of them, in fact, as per my earlier post), and it is also no secret that the only "bona fide ace" out there on the open market this winter will be Zack Greinke. Putting two and two together, there are many fans out there who would love to see the Jays make a hard push after Greinke. While I certainly agree that Greinke is the best pitcher available, I can't help but think that pursuing him would actually be detrimental to the Jays in 2013 and beyond.

Landing someone like Greinke would probably take a deal in the range of $25M per year for at least 6 years, if not more. Now, in the scenario that the Jays' 2013 payroll sits around $100M and they have about $25-$30M to play with this winter, signing Greinke would basically eat up all of their money. That would mean that 2B, LF, 1B/DH and another SP would all have to be filled either internally, or with extremely cheap options. Given that our internal options for those other holes are all pretty close to replacement level players (Gose, Rajai, Hech, Alvarez, Lind), I just can't imagine that this scenario of getting Greinke would be tenable.

Even in the more optimistic scenario where payroll sits around $120M and the Jays would still have about $20M left to play with after getting Greinke, filling all of those other holes on $20M is not such an easy task either. It means waving goodbye to anything but cheap options at 2B, LF and DH or another SP that's any better than a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Even if Greinke could provide an extra 2 or 3 WAR per year more than the next guy (which, as I'll discuss soon, is not so clear at all), would that really be worth locking yourself out from so many other players? There seems to be a big price hike that comes with signing an ace.

Saving $10M per year on a pitcher by going after someone like Anibal Sanchez instead of Greinke might only mean a reduction of 1 or 2 WAR per season, but that same $10M saved invested into a position player could be the difference, say Shin Soo Choo and Anthony Gose, for example. And that difference is likely more than 1 or 2 WAR. Just in terms of getting bang for your buck alone, I think the much cheaper but still highly effective non-ace-but-front-of-the-rotation guys are the much better value buys, especially when you don't have the Yankees' payroll. And there are plenty of these guys available this winter, like Sanchez, Marcum, Dempster, Kuroda, McCarthy to name a few.

But stepping back for a second, even if "aces" were really worth the extra money, is Greinke himself really deserving of that title? He certainly has as much talent as any pitcher out there, that's for sure. But I want to take a closer look at what kind of value he has actually provided over the last three seasons, since his out-of-this-world 2009 season. A quick glance at his fWAR shows that he's accumulated 14.2 WAR from 2010-2012, averaging over 4.5 fWAR per season. His average xFIP and SIERA from 2010-2012 are both in the low 3's, which is certainly excellent. However, there's an issue that I have with relying too heavily on pitcher fWAR, and that is that it uses the fielding independent pitching stats (FIP), as opposed to ERA, in order to calculate the value of a pitcher. In effect, what this really means is that a pitcher's fWAR is not at all a measure of what kind of value that pitcher provided over the season, but rather what kind of value the pitcher could be EXPECTED to provide if luck was neutralized. Stats like FIP and SIERA are supposed to be more predictive of a pitcher's future performance than ERA, which can be heavily influenced by luck.

Sometimes, though, trends develop that make you consider whether certain pitchers are exceptions to these advanced stats. It is widely known, for example, that Matt Cain consistently pitches better than what one would expect based on his FIP or SIERA, since a lot of his success comes from inducing weak contact of fly balls, something which FIP does not recognize as a skill. FIP relies heavily on K/BB ratios, and assumes balls put into play are largely subject to luck rather than skill of the pitcher. Thus, it heavily favours pitchers with good control and high strikeout ability.

Just like there are known exceptions of people who outperform their peripherals, there can be exceptions the other way too. Zack Greinke might just be one of those exceptions. His average ERA from 2010-2012 sits in the high 3's. Here I like to look at a different WAR calculation called rWAR, from Baseball Reference, which uses ERA rather than FIP. Here, we see Greinke only accumulated a 7.9 rWAR from 2010-2012. Even if I give him a generous extra 1.1 WAR for his time lost to injury in 2011, that's still only an average of 3.0 rWAR over the last three seasons. Let's compare those numbers to those of some other established "aces" who have either signed deals worth $20M or more per year or would be worth that much on the open market (from 2010-2012):
CC Sabathia-    14.7 rWAR, 17.1 fWAR
Cliff Lee-          17.3 rWAR, 18.8 fWAR
Cole Hamels-   15.7 rWAR, 13.1 fWAR
David Price-     13.2 rWAR,  13.9 fWAR
Matt Cain-       10.6 rWAR, 12.3 fWAR
Roy Halladay-  17.5 rWAR, 17.1 fWAR
Zack Greinke-  7.9 rWAR,   14.2 fWAR

So well Zack's fWAR is in the middle of the pack, his rWAR is well below the group. And perhaps more importantly, he has easily the greatest discrepancy between his fWAR and his rWAR. This could suggest a real trend that he consistently pitches below his peripherals. In fact, there might even be a reason this is the case. Greinke has said in public that he purposely attempts to keep his FIP low. This means he works on increasing his K/9 and lowering his BB/9. While this is normally a good idea, it could lead to harm as one FanGraphs writer (can't find link now) proposed in 2011 that Greinke may let too many pitches catch too much of the plate when he's behind in the count, because he wants to avoid walks like the plague. An approach like this could lead to a high BABIP, and mean that Greinke's high BABIP and relatively high ERA compared to his FIP is not a product of pure bad luck.

While we're on the topic of comparing WAR values, let's compare Greinke to these two mystery players (from 2010-2012):

Player X-           9.0 rWAR, 12.0 fWAR
Zack Greinke-  7.9 rWAR,  14.2 fWAR

Player X is strikingly similar to Greinke. Player X is Anibal Sanchez. He will be available this offseason for significantly less than Greinke. In fact, you could probably get him and Marcum or Edwin Jackson for the price of Greinke. I think it's pretty clear which is the better value buy.

-Martin

Quick Trade Reaction

As you should all know by now, the Jays have trade Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers. After spending so much time pondering whether Aviles was a good return for a manager or not, what do we make of this?

My first reaction was that this trade was kinda a head-scratcher. After the disappointment that were weren't getting Pedroia for Farrell faded away, I think many of us had sorta come to like Aviles. He offered the team some insurance at 2B in case they couldn't come up with something better, and at the very least he filled a hole that the team had: utility infielder. He was set to either be a serviceable starter at 2B, or a great utility/bench guy, which we were coming to think was actually quite valuable. Even though they don't contribute much in terms of WAR, a good utility guy like Aviles allows the Jays to rest Escobar and whoever the starting 2B is if need be, and that could preserve them over the course of the year. It's likely that at least some of the struggles of Escobar and Kelly Johnson this past year were due to the fact that Farrell didn't feel comfortable letting them rest for an extended period of time when they needed to and replacing them with Omar Vizquel.

Furthermore, I figured the Jays had pretty much already set their bullpen for next year, with Jansen, Oliver, Lincoln, Santos and Delebar already there, and Cecil or Loup available to be the second lefty, plus it seemed they were going to go after either Frasor or Lyon to fill out the pen. The pen seemed like an area of depth rather than an area of need.

That being said, the more I think about it, I think this deal is a win for the Jays. They get an arm with a lot of potential who is cheaper than Aviles and has two more years of control. As valuable as Aviles could have been from the bench, at the end of the day a bench player is a bench player. In the heirarchy of players, relievers are ahead of bench players in importance, and any time you can swap a player of less importance for one of more importance, it's usually a good move to do so. Having Rogers in the pen for 4 years without having to pay much is much better than needing to spend $4-5M on a less talented, more short term and older option like Frasor or Lyon. Plus, if the Jays do find themselves with a surplus of great bullpen arms, they can always be used as trade bait. There are more teams out there looking for bullpen help than utility infield help. If that extra $4M can be spent towards acquiring a better 2B than Aviles would have been, then it's really all for the best.

- Martin

Is Shoring Up the Rotation More Important than Filling Offensive Holes?

AA has made it clear that his first priority this winter will be to improve the starting rotation. However, I think many people out there have a misconception about this need that I'd like to correct. Just because the offense has shown that it can be good as is, and the pitching needs serious help, does not mean that AA should put all of his money and resources into buying and trading for pitching, while ignoring opportunities to improve the offense unless something happens to fall in his lap.

The argument is simple, but I think in light of the way people have been talking, it needs to be stated. The bottom line is that the team needs to win more games. You can accomplish that in two ways: by either allowing less runs, or by scoring more runs. Winning a game 7-5 is just as good as winning it 4-2. The Rangers made the playoffs with a great offense and a disaster of a rotation, and the Rays competed with below average offense but top pitching. If you'll indulge me for a gross simplification of the advanced stats just to clarify my point, if you can add a player who will provide more WAR for your team than what you already have, that will help you the same whether they are a pitcher or a position player.

The name of the game, then, is just to get as many players as you can that will provide more WAR than what you already have at that position. The reason AA will look first to obtain pitching help first is because besides for Romero and Morrow, there aren't many guys here we can count on to provide much WAR. For example, say we're looking to get two pitchers to replace Alvarez and the other vacant spot in the rotation. Alvarez provided about 0.5 fWAR this past season, and options freely available to the Jays at this point would be basically replacement level, meaning about 0 WAR. If we could replace each of them with pitchers who will get about 3.0 WAR each, we'd be 6.0 WAR overall better off. On the other hand, many position players in the Jays lineup are better than replacement level already, meaning it's harder to find replacements for them that will provide a huge boost in WAR. Even when you consider the holes at 2B, LF, we can assume that Gose or Rajai Davis or Aviles at least have the potential to provide 1.0-2.0 WAR in a season, so to get the same 6.0 WAR improvement at 2B and LF would take getting players that each provide 5.0 WAR. This is pretty hard to do since players like that are hard to find, and expensive. But, for example, if the Jays were able to land Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler to fill those holes, that would be as worthy an expenditure than getting two good starting pitchers.

Pitching is the first place to look because we have so little of it. It's easy to accumulate extra WAR when replacing guys that gave you very little value. In other words, the reason pitching is a priority this winter is simply because of convenience. It's not because contending teams need to have balance between good hitting and good pitching. Rather, it's because pitching is just the easiest place for the Jays to build up extra WAR.

This should illustrate that the goal here is accumulating more WAR. The best way to do that is by replacing low WAR players with high WAR players. Right now, that seems easiest to do with pitchers, but doing so in the offensive positions where help is needed would also be just as good. Ideally, of course, it would be nice if AA could pull off both of these tricks.

-Martin

The 2012 Offseason: Part 2

Now that we've clarified what the holes are on the Jays' roster, what surplus they have to parlay and what kind of financial resources they should have available to them, I just wanted to quickly discuss the type of players they should be looking for to fill each of their holes. Which positions could do fine with short term fillers, and which warrant a more long term approach, and how should the Jays look to divide up their financial resources.

SP: Since pitching is the team's number one priority, we'll start there. I noted in part 1 that two starting pitchers should be added for 2013, and ideally both would be middle of the rotation caliber. Hopefully this would allow Alvarez to get back to AAA Buffalo, and it would mean the Jays will not be relying on any of their younger guys coming back from injury (Drabek, McGowan, Hutchinson) or down seasons (Jenkins, McGuire).

However, all of these guys will be back eventually, and if Alvarez does successfully develop a 3rd pitch in AAA in 2013, you'd like to see him back in the rotation for 2014. Getting two SPs long term might block that from Happening.

On the other hand, Alvarez would only be blocked if a lot of things go right in 2013. IF he develops a 3rd pitch, and IF Romero bounces back and shows he's worthy of remaining in the rotation, and IF Happ has a strong year as the #5 starter and the Jays want to keep him there for 2014, and IF the two new SPs plus Morrow, Romero and Happ stay healthy, then yes, Alvarez will be blocked in 2014.

While I think it might be naive to think all of that will go right in 2013, it's not really so crazy either. I think the odds are in Romero's favour to bounce back and at least be a mid-rotation guy. I think by losing the curveball, the Jays might have cured what ailed Happ in Houston. He certainly had excellent peripherals in his brief stint in Toronto. Health is always up in the air, but on the other hand the even if there are some injuries, the Jays will still have Drabek, McGuire, Jenkins, and Hutchinson all waiting in the wings to fill in temporarily in 2014 if necessary. Or even better, maybe one of them turns a corner in 2013 and becomes a real full-time rotation option themselves. And on top of all of that, the so-called "big three" pitching prospects will probably be up in AAA at least by 2014, and can serve as depth to the MLB roster themselves if the need should arise.

For all of those reasons, I think it might be a waste of resources for the Jays to go out and sign two expensive pitchers to long term deals this winter. Instead, I'd rather see them sign one pitcher long term (I'm crossing my fingers for Anibal Sanchez, but the options out there and my thoughts on them will have to be subject for a later post). The other SP spot should be filled with a one year contract, perhaps with a team option for a second year. There are several older pitchers on the FA market this winter who might end up signing short term that the Jays could look at (again, to be discussed in future post), but the best case scenario would be to land someone in a trade with one year left on his contract (again, future post for these options).

These moves would end up costing between $25-30M in 2013, eating up more than half of the money they have for this offseason. But that's okay, because it's being spent on two pitchers rather than one and the short term contract will allow for a bit of money to come off the books for 2014.

LF: Justin Upton is of course the prize here, and if he is available and the Jays are able to get him, then you do it and don't worry about who you're blocking. However, I'm pretty sure Upton will be staying put in Arizona. That being the case, the issue here is what the Jays' plans are with Anthony Gose and Colby Rasmus. If the Jays plan to keep both of them, keeping Gose in the minors and then moving either him or Rasmus to LF for 2014, then you'd only look for someone with one year of control this winter. However, if they trade Gose this winter (which I hope they do), or they aren't high enough on his bat to see him as our CF/LF of the future, then a bit of a longer term solution would be best. However, with Jake Marsnick likely to be ready by 2015 at the latest (and potentially for 2014 if he's needed), then a one or two year solution might be ideal regardless of what they think of Gose. Fortunately, one and two year options are most of what is out there this winter if Upton isn't on the market (see future post for LF options)

1B/DH: With the only in-house option being Adam Lind, and the lack of any "1Bs of the future" in the minors that are anywhere near MLB ready, the Jays really could use a long term solution here. However, there are only so many Joey Vottos, Prince Fielders and Adrian Gonzaleses to go around. Given that EE can play 1B, acquiring a pure DH is also an option here. DH's for the most part are older players who by nature receive short term contracts. One of the reasons AA never worried much about the DH position is that he always maintained it was an easy one to fill when the time was right (i.e. when the Jays are ready to contend there are always short term solid DH options available). That notion probably does hold up, and I expect the Jays plug this hole with somebody on a 1-2 year contract. It's likely that in 3 years or so Bautista might need to shift over to 1B anyways, and even if not, there will always be new options available in 1-2 years again. See future post about 1B/DH options this winter.

2B: Jays Journal recently put out a great review on the Jays' middle infield prospects. Unfortunately, the picture is pretty grim. The Jays could really use a long term solution here, and there aren't any prospects to come save them. Unlike 1B/DH, 2B is more of a premium position, and it's probably not in the team's best interests to keep plugging the hole with mediocre players on short term contracts. Because even players like Kelly Johnson aren't always readily available. That being said, since there do happen to be some cheap short term options this winter who could do a pretty solid job, and since they might run out of money after spending on pitching, LF and 1B/DH, they might need to settle for one of those cheap options (or just use Aviles). It's not like there are any all-star 2Bs available anyways.

-Martin

The 2012-2013 Offseason: An Introduction

As you might have read in the addendum to the previous post, I'm the new guy around here. I just wanted to say that I'm very excited to have the opportunity to be a writer for this blog and I look forward to sharing ideas and opinions with Blue Jays fans worldwide. Of course, discussion is always more fun than monologues, so comments are always welcome and encouraged. Below you'll find my first post, which is the first of a short 2-part series. Enjoy!

-Martin Klayman

Since a nice chunk of what I hope to do around here is d what kind of discuss roster moves the Jays should or shouldn't try to do and analyze the performances of the relevant players, I figure it would be helpful if I just opened up with a general introduction to the offseason. Specifically, what exactly should the Jays be looking for, and what resources do they have to go out and get those things? This should give context to future posts.

What Do the Jays Need?

AA has discussed "entrenched" players on record, so this shouldn't be too hard. It's also glaringly obvious what the needs of this team are. But here's a numbered list for you:

1) 2B: With Kelly Johnson hitting the open market, the Jays don't have a starting 2B on the roster for next year. What they do have, though, are three potential shortstops in Escobar, Aviles and Hechavarria. If necessary, one of them could slide over to 2B and fill that hole. However, putting Hech at 2B would seem to be a waste of his tremendous defense, which is really all he would bring to the table at this point. If the Jays are to hang on to him, he would ideally stay in the minors for one more year. Aviles could do an okay job filling in here, especially in a platoon role, but ideally he opens the season as your utility INF.

2) 1B/DH: Encarnacion is set at one of these two positions, but the other one is up for grabs. AA has said pretty explicitly that he does not want to go forward with Adam Lind in his starting lineup. He will likely find himself either traded or on the bench in 2013. Thus, there is a hole here.

3) LF: Travis Snider was the LF of the future for a long time, but now he's gone, and so far he hasn't done anything to make us miss him (at least on the field- that interview was pretty awesome though). AA has also said he sees Rajai Davis as more of a 4th OF, and ideally Gose should spend one more year in the minors. Plus, like with Hech, having Gose in LF is also a bit of a waste of defensive talent, which is really what his game is all about right now.

4) SP: The Jays have Romero and Morrow entrenched at the front end of the rotation, and they have to be pretty HAPPy with what the saw from Happ this year. He should have a job at the back end of the rotation. There are plenty of other internal options to fill out the rotation, such as Alvarez, Lincoln, Jenkins, McGuire, McGown, etc. But it would be pretty disastrous if any of them were actually given the job to start the season. Alvarez is the only legit candidate here, but AA has said he won't be afraid to option him to the minors in 2013. Personally, I wish he'd be a little stronger about that, because if it was up to me I would definitely send Alvarez to the minors at least to start off the season, and keep him there until he's finished developing an out pitch. Hopefully AA understands that too (as everyone with half a brain seems to realize Alvarez needs another pitch), and just isn't being so explicit about it. Either way, with Romero, Morrow and Happ, there are two more spots open in the rotation that need to be filled from outside the organization. AA has said he doesn't care about labels on pitchers, so I'm not gonna say the Jays need a "number 3" and "number 4" pitcher. Because they don't. They just need the two best pitchers they can get, for an appropriate value, with the resources they have.

The goal of the offseason is to fill as many of these holes as possible, with the best players available under the circumstances.

What do the Jays have to Offer?

If the Jays try to fill any of their holes via trade, or more importantly, if I want to speculate about trades they could make, then we have to know what assets they have to offer to other teams. The Jays seem to have a surplus in 4 areas:

1) Pitching prospects: No big ones that are really major league ready, but there are a pretty good number of them who are a year or two away, and more lower than that. The thing with prospects is that the really exciting ones you want to keep, and the less exciting ones are hard to get value for, especially when they're not major league ready. But AA has expressed a willingness to part with prospects, and to get something good you have to give something good. AA has made clear that his priority is now the major league team, rather than building the farm system, so if he finds the only way he's able to fill the holes on the MLB roster is by giving up one or two of our big pitching prospects, I have to think he'll be inclined to pull the trigger this year.

2) CF: The Jays have Rasmus through 2014 and are handing him the starting job for the 2013 season. However, they do have Anthony Gose waiting in the wings, who projects to be back in the minors to start the season (unless he is needed in LF- which he shouldn't be). Another year in the minors should do good things for Gose, and it also would give them the opportunity to keep Gose as the potential CF of the future if Rasmus can't turn things around in 2013. So it's not as if the Jays need to trade one of their two CFs. On the other hand, Gose is close to major league ready (even though his bat still needs help), and there are a lot of teams out there looking for a CF. So despite the advantages of keeping both Gose and Rasmus around for another year, Gose is a very nice trade chip and may need to be flipped to fill an area of need on the roster. Plus, keeping Gose in the minors this year has its disadvantages whatever the outcome. If he has a down year, he loses serious trade value, and might not be seen as a solution here locally either. If he has a good year and is deemed major league ready, then AA loses a bit of leverage in trade talks because he will be under more pressure to trade one of them (unless he ends up slotting one of them in LF, which could be a possibility, I guess).

3) SS: Despite all the rumblings about Escobar maybe not being so "entrenched" anymore, I think he probably still is, and certainly should be. But Hechavarria is waiting in the wings and Aviles is around too. Again, if they choose to slide one of these two over to 2B, and put the other in the minors (for Hech) or on the bench (for Aviles) then there's no more surplus. But assuming they look elsewhere for 2B help, which I hope they do, there will be several SSs on the roster. As was the case with Gose in CF, Hech could use another year in AAA, so keeping him down there for 2013 is an option. But that comes with the same disadvantages that doing so with Gose came with, and I'm less confident about Hech figuring out how to hit than I am about Gose. He might be at the height of his trade value now, and if you have a chance to get a lot of value out of someone who might end up just being Johnny Mac 2.0, then you might want to take that opportunity while you have it. There are many teams out there looking for a SS.

4) Catcher: The Jays have JP Arencibia "entrenched" for now, but have Travis D'Arnaud who has been deemed major league ready. JPA has experience in the big leagues, so he's more of a known commodity and has been pretty durable. D'Arnaud is still a prospect and has seemed quite injury prone, though he projects to be the better overall player of the two. Assuming AA isn't dumb enough to have both of these guys in the starting lineup, with one of them getting at bats at 1B/DH as so many fans seem to be wishing for, one of them is gonna have to go. My personal preference would be to keep D'Arnaud. 4 years of control on JPA could bring back a nice piece in a trade.

Well, there you have it. Now, the name of the game is to match up teams with the Jays who have what the Jays want, and/or need what the Jays have. I hope you're as excited as I am. But before we get to that, we must not forget about the open market. It's an avenue the Jays will surely explore this winter to fill some of their holes. So let's look at what kind of money they might have to throw around this year.

Payroll Expectations

The payroll in 2012 was around $83.7M, and AA has vowed that it will go up. Although he didn't give any specific numbers, I think it's safe to say it can potentially go up to at least $100M. Now, with several players coming off the books, the Jays have committed something around $65M already to next year. Factoring in what they'll have to pay to the arbitration eligibles, let's set the amount committed to 2013 at around $70-75M. I'm not bothering to work this out down to the dollar, because AA has implied that the payroll is a general area that he is asked to stay around, not an exact number set in stone. Plus, this post is too long already.

Putting this all together, I would think the Jays should have at least $25-$30M to play with this winter. If the payroll can go up to the range of $120M as Beeston has said in the past, and I have a sneaking suspicion (read: desperate hope) that it will, then the Jays may have as much as $40-$50M to spend this winter.

The truth is, as cheap as Rogers has been with the Jays recently, I really do think it must be the better business move to invest an extra $10-$20M in this year's team (and increase payroll to $120M now) if that will put the team over the top (which I think it will). Spending a bit more to get a contending team will lead to greatly increased revenue. Spending more than last year but not quite enough to contend will just anger an already frustrated fan base, and probably lead to lower revenues than what they got in 2012. So say what you will about Rogers, but my money is on a payroll approaching $120M this year.

Now, although $40-$50M sounds like a lot, it's really not as much as it sounds. Needing a 2B, LF, 1B/DH and 2 SPs means at most they have an average of $10M to spend to fill each of these positions. So even with an increased payroll if you're one of those fans crossing your fingers for Greinke, then you better be okay with settling for pretty cheap options everywhere else.

~~Martin

2012 Positional Rankings: Corner Infielders

As the ongoing speculation rages over the Jays manager position, about which I have not enough information to add anything worthwhile except as already stated regarding the coaches, I will get back to my series and in so doing I come to the position which is likely the weakest in the system, in terms of depth of potential major leaguers. Nevertheless, it must be addressed so let's dig in.

1. Matt Dean (12/22/92) - A year ago, Dean was considered to be quite the coup for the Blue Jays. A "hard sign" - so it was believed - he fell down the draft boards all the way to the 13th round where the Jays took a gamble and made it pay off by getting Dean's name on a contract. A power-potential 3B who was said to have good contact skills and solid or better defense. John Sickels ranked him the Blue Jays 16th best prospect last spring. Funny thing is, that guy kinda didn't show up this season. The power was nothing remarkable, the contact was worse, and the defense was awful. He made 24 errors in short season ball and eye-on reports insist the total is not at all deceptive. That said, you cannot simply dismiss a guy's glamorous prospect status over a shaky debut season as a pro. On tools and ability, he's well ahead of the next guy on this list. Check with me again a year from now.

2. Mike McDade (5/8/89) - I'll get some grief for not listing him #1, and in truth I'm going to regret not listing him #3 I fear. McDade has impressed some fans, in some respects - but ask any professional evaluator (at least those who comment publicly like Keith law or Kevin Goldstien) and they will tell you the guy's not a major leaguer. I remember when Brian Dopirak impressed a lot of us, to some degree, for a time, and we were told repeatedly he was a non-prospect. That evaluation was correct. McDade will have to prove the doubters wrong. Maybe he will.

3. Mitch Nay (9/20/93) - in some ways he brings a rep similar to the one Dean brought to his signing. While Dean signed too late to play in 2011, Nay signed earlier - thanks to the new rules - but promptly suffered an ankle injury that kept him off the field through the end of the rookie league season.  So we've seen nothing professional from him yet and this ranking is based entirely on the scouting reputation he brought into draft day.

4. Kellen Sweeney (9/14/91) - Sweeney was drafted in 2010 with a reputation as a guy with had a very good bat tool and a solid to plus glove, but perhaps would lack the power usually expected from a third baseman. The defense has been as advertised, but the bat has been slow to appear. He started 2012 in Lansing and played his way back to short season ball when those teams got started. Initially, nothing changed as he continued to struggle into Late July. Then something clicked in. August was far and away his best month as a pro. His numbers soared across the board and his K rate fell by half from it's July figure. He posted an .802 OPS for the month. If Sweeney has ironed out his offensive issues he could still end up rebuilding his status.

5. Gustavo Pierre (12/28/91) - last year it was Pierre who played himself out of Lansing. Shipped back to short season ball he continued to struggle horribly both on offense and defense. He did begin to recover with the bat a bit towards the end of the season, but the progress was tempered by the fact that he was at Bluefield, and by the reality that he was clearly never going to cut it as a shortstop. He opened 2012back at Lansing, and playing 3B. While he learned to handle the new defensive position, his offensive struggles continued into the new season. He missed April, was abysmal in May, and bad in June. By the first days of July it was growing near impossible to consider him even a fringe prospect anymore, tools or no tools. But then, as with Sweeney, something clicked in. From July 1 to the end of the season he posted an OPS of .779 which was far better than he'd shown himself capable of before. There's still a major hole in his game when it comes to BB:K ratios (an area where Sweeney is MUCH better). But it's no longer completely silly to think he might recover his once highly regarded status.

6. Gaberiel Cenas (10/16/93) - still looking to find his bat as a pro, but played the year as an 18 year old when some prospects are just getting drafted. He was paid well enough to sign as an international free agent that we should with caution give up on him.

7. Art Charles (11/10/90) - low average, lots of sexy homers, seems to have a knack for good timing. So why isn't he higher? Because he's older than everyone on this list but McDade (who's in AAA) and he spent the year in short season ball. The sort of guy who'll be quickly exposed at higher levels.

8. KC Hobson (8/22/90) - I really want to be able to list this guy higher, and he did improve his offense substantially this year (from weak to below average) but he as repeating Low-A and his age is catching up with him. More importantly than that, however, is that he seems to be an absolute butcher at 1B (he made 25 errors in 2011, 18 in 2012 - horrid for 1B). If he's going to be a DH he has to have an eye-popping bat at this level and it's just not there so far.

9. Jon Talley (2/18/89) - this was the year Talley pretty much had to step up big time or be regulated to organizational soldier. He didn't. In  fact, his HR total fel by over 50% despite having more at bats.

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On an entirely different note - and frankly one deserving of it's own post, except that I've posted so irregularly that I simply HAD to get another installment of the series in, things are changing at The Southpaw. Due to the fact that this summer has seen my post rate fall dramatically as real life considerations have intruded on my time (which given my tendency toward procrastination is magnified) I've decided to add a "junior partner." It has not escaped my notice that as the post frequency has declined, so has the readership and the comments in response. This is to be expected but is nonetheless regrettable.

When Martin Klayman approached me about possibly doing some writing for the site it was a welcome solution to the dilemma. In the next few days you will see the first of what will hopefully be many fine entries from his keyboard and i hope that you will make him feel welcome. We may not always agree, but the work I've seen in the early going seems to reflect my general take on the Toronto Blue Jays. You all know that my specialty is realistic optimism. I refuse to surrender to the chronic cynacism and negativism I see in so many of my fellow fans. As long as Martin stays clear of that cancer, we should get along famously. I hope you agree that he's a valuable addition here.

Look for his first post in the next couple of days.

Positional Rankings: Middle Infielders

And so the smoke is rolling around the Farrell story, and it begins to look like something MUST be on fire. The Jays are said to be discussing the compensation with the Sox and for some perverse reason I keep getting the feeling we'll be hearing the name Zack Stewart involved somehow. But since I know nothing on that front I can say nothing but speculation, of which I will offer one bite before getting down to business:

So many of the lists which name the "hot prospects" to become managers in the big leagues include the name of Tory Lovello. I speculate that if/when Farrell departs, Lovello will be elevated to the manager's chair and Chad Motolla will be elevated to the First Base coach role (and unofficial asst. hitting coach). That is unless Sandy Alomar Jr impressed them SO much they are willing to lose both Farrell and Lovello because unless he's the manager here, i'll wage lovello follows Farrell back to Boston.

Now to business. This second in the series of positional lists looks at the middle infield prospects in the Blue Jays' system.

1. Adeniy Hechavarria - (4/15/89)- The guys who get paid to evaluate players continue to say "great fielder, not much bat" but Hech did make great strides offensively this year. Note well that he played in 41 major league games, and in the final 35 his OPS was .714, which sounds weak but actually puts him right in the same neighborhood with two other excellent glove-men, Elvis Andurus and Alcides Escobar - which is frankly the ceiling we were all hoping for all along. Anything more is gravy. I still harbor a suspicion that if one of the two is not traded, the Jays may see an opportunity in the unfortunate incident involving Yunel Escobar to pressure him to submit to a move to 2B (Yunel would seem to have little firm ground to take a stand on at this point).

It would be a bit of a rush for Hech BUT consider this: Over the next two seasons, the Jays will look to integrate three key rookies into their line-up, and that potentially at the three most important defensive positions on the field. It would not be wise to try to d this all at once or in very close succession. It seems to me that there is some wisdom in staggering the introduction of Hech, dArnaud, and Gose into a full time position as much as is practical. Circumstantially, barring a trade, Hech is the one for whom the door is most open as of right now. I look for the Jays to try to land someone like Marco Scutaro who can be shifted to a super-utility role at any given time as needed to accommodate this process.

2. Christian Lopes - (10/1/92) - Lopes was being praised for maturity and professionalism, and a great bat, before he played a game as a senior in high school. He was a shortstop then but he was drafted with 2B in mind and that's where he's played s a pro. He started a bit slowly when assigned to Bluefield in June (an aggressive placement) but came on very strong hitting over .350 in his last 20 games with that team, with a .986 OPS. He was promoted to Vancouver for the playoff drive and started off hot before running out of gas over the last week or two. A conservative placement next season would be to return to Vancouver but I would not be at all surprised to see him pushed to Lansing. The team may well fast-track him if he has no setbacks.

3. Franklin Barreto - (birthdate uncertain) - Ranked here simply because of the great amount of praise the Jays got for signing him. He may end up in CF eventually, but he's not yet played a professional inning so we don't really know anything but that he was a very coveted player as an amateur.

4. Dawel Lugo - (12/13/94)- also highly praised by scouts, Lugo does project to stick at SS and be a good one, though it's unclear at this point how his bat develops. The Jays aggressively began his career in the GCL (rather than the Dominican Summer League) and he didn't hit that well (hardly anyone on that team did) but he'll likely improve going forward - we just don't know how much.

5. Ryan Goins - (2;/13/88) - Workmanlike, low-ceiling utility player. His upside ranges from a Joe Inglett type to maybe something like a Jason Bartlett (as a hitter) but with less glove.


6. Andrew Burns - (8/7/90) -  the flip side of Thon, he came in with no real "credentials" to be considered a top prospect but he stepped up to Lansing this year and, before injury, was having a nice little campaign. He shows quality baserunnning (15 of 17 in steal attempts) and sold doubles power (25 in 78 games) while showing a good eye at the plate (an OBP 103 points higher than his BA).

7. Richard Urena - (birthdate uncertain) - another highly priced Latin American signing, this one from 2011,  I know very little about this guy and the ranking flows entirely from his ranking among Latin free agents that year. Has yet to appear in a pro game.

8. DJ Thon - (11/16/91) it's uncertain how much of what happened in 2012 was the lingering effect of the illness of the previous year, and how much is simply a lack of development and how much is just not being good enough. He needs a breakout season to re-establish his credentials though.

9. Ryan Schimpf (4/11/88) - Dramatically increased his results accros the board in 2012. Strictly a 2B, the smallish (5'9") infielder still produced plenty of pop and a respectable OBP. On the other hand, he played most of the season in Hi-A ball at the age of 24. He needs to do it again.

10. Luis Castro - (birthdate uncertain) - it can be very difficult to rank Latin free agent signing before they have ever played a professional game, and the only real tool you have to work with is how much the signing was hyped and the price point. Castro was considered the 9th best available guy in last year's crop.


Keep your eye on: Ronniel Demorizi - (1/19/95) -  another Latin signing, being developed as a 2B - he spent the summer in the Dominican and didn't make any significant noise. Might be something here but he's a long way off.

Positional Rankings: Outfielders

On the occasion of the LCS opponents being set with the Cardinals storming back to knock out the Nats, I begin my annual fall series looking at the jays farm system by position. I note with interest that a couple of other sites have picked up on my schtick and are probably doing it better but I was doing it first so I'ma keep on doing it.

Anthony Gose (who would have been probably #1 or at least #2) graduated from eligibility this summer as did Moises Sierra who would have fallen no lower than 7th and possibly higher. I also included a couple of bonus listings at then end in recognition of some special circumstances.


1. Jake Marisnick - (3/30/91) - reports have begun to emerge that the Jays spent a good deal of this season refining a change in Marisnicks swing (as they have constantly refined Gose's since his acquisition) and that his season stats do not necessarily reflect anything other than the side effects of that process. I'm as big a believer in Jake as you will find, in fact I'm more excited about him than I've been about any Jays outfield prospect in more than a decade, save Travis Snider (Shaddup!). So I'm willing to grant him a LOT of slack. But as i look around the net i don't see any professional evaluators very down on him so I'm going to assume it's not just me. Marisnick did see to "lock in" on the new swing over the last 10 games posting an OPS of ..969 over that stretch, but it's a tiny sample. At lease one (non-Jays)scout has been quoted as saying he expects a huge breakout season next year in AA. That would work for me.

2. D.J. Davis - (6/27/93) - On draft day i wasn't particularly high on this pick and his work in the GCL was not of a caliber to make me reconsider. But the Jays saw enough to promote him to Bluefield where, in another 10 game sample, he showed quite well..My post-season reading indicates that most observers are high on Davis, considering him a potential Top 10 prospect (no mean feat in this organization) so I'm deferring here to better informed views. Davis is described, in several ways, in similar terms to what you've heard about Gose, except that I've heard nothing to indicate he has the arm Gose does. In fact, the stats indicate that the Bluefield sample was also blessed by a really high BABiP and a quite high ground ball rate which would lead one to suppose that Davis used his speed to pressure young defenders fielding ground balls and that led to the offensive success. Which reminds you of whom?

3. Dwight Smith, Jr. - (10/26/92) - Another 2011 draft pick I was only lukewarm on, in contrast to the reviews of many others. He didn't do a thing at the plate to raise my view of him this year, albeit his season was saddled with an astonishingly low BABiP. Still, there've been enough good reports that I'll give him a mulligan on the first year, and he ends up this high partly because it wasn't a great year for high-profile outfield prospects in the Blue Jays system.

4. Chris Hawkins - (8/17/91) -  Case in point. Hawkins is a LF, unlike the CF above him (albeit Smith probably won't stick there) and as such has to develop as a hitter in order to be a premium prospect. Looking back,Hawkins might have been a bit too highly regarded based on his previous work as he came into the 2012 season. It's a lot harder to hold him in high regard now. Another season like those so far and he'll free fall down this list.

5. Kevin Pillar - (1/4/89) - so far i've factored in heavily scouting reports and draft pedigree and so forth to look beyond stats. Pillar is the opposite of that. Lightly regarded, expected frankly to probably be an org guy, and a bit old for his level - Pillar did nothing but flat out hit this year. He hit better than any other outfielder in the system in fact. Still, scouts agree his ceiling is limited, though he's praised for work ethic, passion, and making the most of his skills. Me:/ I'm already thinking "Reed Johnson 2.0"

6. Wuilmer Becerra - (10/1/94) second only to RHP Roberto Osuna on the list of Jays Latin American players signed in the summer of 2011,  the Jays thought enough of Becerra to start him in the GCL rather than the Dominican League, which is aggressive.  Sadly for our purposes and for his development, he played a total of 1 games before he was hit by a pitch and spent the rest of the season on the DL. There's no point in commenting on his stats. on raw tools he might be the second best guy on this list, but he's so very far away and so much could go wrong.

7. Dalton Pompey - (12/11/92) - Another guy who spent most of the season on the DL. Altogether he accumulated only 20 games played so statistical observations are so much wishcasting - but I'll do it anyway in this regard: Pompey finished the season with 11 games playing for the championship-bound Vancouver Canadians. and in those  11 games he walked nine times. Potential to break out next year.

8. Jacob Anderson - (11/22/92)  here for the tools. After blowing the doors off in his brief 2011 stint, a lot was expected and Anderson delivered virtually nothing on those expectations. some scouting reports suggested he looked confused or hesitant at the plate. He's too high a profile talent to start giving up on but he seriously needs to rebound next year.

9. Jesus Gonzalez - (1/11/95) - Like Becerra, he's a RH Venezuelan OF signed in 2011 and aggressively sent for his first professional work in the GCL. For the most part, he did about what you would expect there and you really shouldn't worry too much about that stat line.  Such players are always very raw.

10. Marcus Kenecht - (6/21/90) - After a breakout 2011 in Lansing, the LF was promoted to Dunedin for 2012 and went right off the cliff. While he maintained reasonably good power his BA was attrocious pretty much all year. He did post decent numbers for August, which perhaps lends some hope that this was a fluke down year. Need a solid season to get back on the map next year.

HM: Anthony Alford - can't put him on the list because he may never actually be a committed prospect for the Jays. But on tools, he'd definitely deserve attention. so I just mention him as a very special case and we can hope he wants to be the next Bo Jackson or something.

DM: Michael Crouse - like Knecht, the promotion to Dunedin was very unkind. After 59 games they returned him to Lansing and he continued to flounder. He doesn't have the pedigree of some other guys on this list and his leash is undoubtedly much shorter. Another guy who needs to bust out in 2013 or risk being cast aside.

Quick Point

A lot has been made lately about some measure of the Jays awful season being attributable to lack of veteran leadership. Even and especially when the subject of injuries come up, some sources - including a few veteran Blue Jays players - point not to the injuries themselves but also to that leadership issue and call for more veteran players. Most recently Jason Frasor was quoted as saying “Too many young guys, too many young guys.”

Really? Let's look more closely. JP Arencibia was in his age 26 season, and while that's generally considered the beginning of the average players peak years, catchers run a bit behind that curve in general and it was just his second season. So let's assign him as the oldest guy in the "young guys" camp. Among those players who played the most games at each position this year, and with the possible exception of left field they were exactly the guys the team intended to have at those positions, six of the ther eight besides Arencibia were veteran players, ranging from Adam Lind's 28 to Raji Davis and Jose Bautista at 31 (both born on October 19, 1980!). the intended and opening day bench included a 29 year old, a 30 year old, and a 45 year old. The 13th hitter, presumptively, was 25 year old Eric Thames who lost his job to Davis.

This, my friends, is NOT a team plagued by youth and inexperience - UNTIL the injuries swamped them. Yes, Gose, Gomes, Hechavarria, and Sierra were thrust into the limelight before they were ready. Because of injuries. Does Frasor mean to say that the team should have been holding a bunch of dewayne Wise types in AAA for the occasion of a run of injuries, and that the team would have faired better with those older guys instead;/

Let's look at the pitching.

Of the five guys who got the most starts this year, only one was younger than 27. Yes, it's true that Hutchison was arguably rushed and Drabek might not have been ideal (albeit if you can't stash a kid in the #5 hope that's asking a bit much - but Hutch was here precisely because of what? McGowan's injury.  So MAYBE you can accept "too many kids" in reference to the rotation. but in the original scenario you have maybe one more kid than is optimal (again, you HAVE to be able to break in at least one young gun at the bottom of the rotation, no matter who you are - even the Yankees would have done so had health not hampered them).

In the bullpen, there were veterans everywhere. Janssen, Oliver, Frasor, Cordero, Villianueva originally, how much more veteran can they be expected to get?

I'll accept the premise, not having been in the clubhouse to see for myself, that the veterans who were present failed to sprinkle the appropriate magic fairy dust or whatever. But please don't try to tell me that  there were not enough veterans there. the influx of unready youth was almost entirely the result of an unusual amount of time lost to injuries and unless one harbors the illusion that a better-than-league-average replacement guy could have been stashed at AAA (not getting at-bats, by the way, since you have to have the actual prospects playing) then you still haven't made a point. would the team have been obviously and considerably better off if they had been able to promote Dewayne Wise or Corey Patterson instead of Anthony Gose in August? Sure, occasionally you get a unpredictable fluke (like Boston got with Podsednick for a while) but you can't plan for those.

Bottom line, the team broke camp with ONE guy who was REALLY young in the starting line-up and that guy was thought by everyone to be the next franchise player and also played a position where there was no really sane alternative. there were two other sorta young guys, one who failed and lost his job to a veteran long ago.In the rotation there was two kids when arguably their ought to have been one. in the bullpen there was no youth issue period. THAT is not a calculation which leads to the conclusion "too many kids, man."

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A further thought on this matter, posted 10/9:

By contrast to the above, the Oakland A's stormed down the stretch to overtake the high-dollar Rangers and win the AL West with:

a 23 year old rookie catcher
a 25 year old rookie first baseman
a 26 year old rookie center fielder
a 25 year old 2nd full year right fielder
a 23 year old rookie #2 starter
a 25 year old rookie #3 pitcher
a 24 year old rookie #5 pitcher
a 24 year old starter coming off injury
and three of their five busiest relievers at 25 or younger.

So by all means, tell me again how the Jays had too many kids to compete.

Looking Ahead

It's  that time of the year that we have become so accustomed to in Jays-land, when the desire to watch significant baseball games means watching someone besides the Blue Jays, and thoughts of the Blue Jays are necessarily focused on "next year" again. Still, since one of the things I like best about baseball is the whole art and science of roster manipulation (I'm an odd gal, sue me) I can roll with that possibly a bit better than others.

Of course the first thing you do, when you set out to rosterbate is anticipate which positions are "in play" so let's run over the obvious available information, reflecting both what we can discern and what Alex Anthopoulos has openly stated.

Catcher - Travis d'Arnaud's injury, while unfortunate, does in fact clarify this situation a bit. the Jays re-signed Jeff Mathis for the bench role, have said nothing to disparage incumbent JP Arencibia, and have indeed spoken of the potential of getting d'Arnaud at bats at DH or even 1B. Make no mistake, the future is d'Arnaud barring something as yet unexpected, but that future is not, in all likelihood, going to arrive next April. Depending on what happens with the DH position, you might in theory see d'Arnaud in June or July, getting at bats as the second catcher (with Mathis serving as an emergency guy) and also either he or JP as DH (with Mathis the obvious reserve in those games). As such, there will be no catcher import this winter. Alternate scenario: JP ends up being the key to a deal which will fill some open position and the Jays ignore the slightly inconvenient timing and make the deal.

First Base - while it's not impossible the Jays would acquire a classic 1B and return Edwin Encarnacion to DH, for the purpose of this exercise we'll pencil EE in as the 1B so as to give ourselves more flexibility with the DH position.

Second Base - will NOT be Kelly Johnson. This one is "in play"

Shortstop - it's impossible at this hour to guess how the Eye-Black Incident will play out, either in the short or long term, it is still not invalid to observe that Yunel Escobar has not hit well enough this year to make the team overlook his eccentricities. He's not a BAD SS, to be sure. His WAR  ranks seventh among AL shortstops, but you don't want to create baggage unless you are good enough to make the team overlook it. Still, AA listed SS as a position that's "locked up" (always "brring a trade" of course - that's a standard disclaimer) so we have to pencil him in, with two caveats: 1. the EBI might change everything; and 2. Escobar might be the key to an important trade as non-sucky shortstops are hard to come by and have value. For instance, the Arizona D'Backs may well trade Justin Upton and are known to be seeking a SS. Obviously, if he departs the Jays will go with Adeiny Hechavarria. It's worth noting that Hech in an admittedly small sample, has hit almost exactly as well since August 12 as Starlin Castro has hit for the year, and is a considerably better defender.

ETA: One other thought. It has been said that the Jays were worried about Esco's reaction if they ask him to move to 2B. This bit of drama may put Escobar in a corner where he dare not make waves about such a request. The Jays may well investigate that before making a deal for a 2B.


Third Base - Brett Lawrie, settled, next question. (okay, one tidbit: Lawrie even having lost much time to injury and not having lived up to pre-season offensive expectations, still has the third highest WAR among AL 3B)

Right Field - Jose Bautista. Settled. Next Question. (Bautista's WAR, pro-rated, would rank him #1 among AL RF)

Center Field - Colby Rasmus has fallen into the Adam Lind trap of being very good for short stretches and utterly abysmal for others. Now it's true that there were some mitigating play-through injury circumstance in the second half of this season, but still. At the ASB he was right where you'd have wanted him to be, somewhere in the 5-7 range when the Top AL center fielders are ranked. In fact, for the last 46 games before the break he was arguably the second best CF in the AL (a .971 OPS) depending on how you define Josh Hamilton.
Since the ASB he's hit for a spectacularly bad .520 OPS (and that was worse before he heated up a little over the last couple of weeks). Again, AA lists this as a settled position, and the odds are that the Jays will continue to try to get him to reach his potential until a prospect takes the job from him. but he could have probably earned a multi-year contract before the slide. That won't happen now.

Left Field - obviously in play. Not impossible the team will end up gambling with Gose here but it's not remotely Plan A.

DH - absolutely in play. Lind is around and the team has not completely written him off (although if they have ANY opportunity to make a reasonable trade which includes him they will) but they sound much less confident than they did a year ago, and with good reason. In 43 games since his AAA exile (interrupted by injury) Lind's OPS is .783 which is likely the best guess for where his "true talent" level is. But he's done nothing to prove he can even touch LHP which makes him a platoon player at DH (or 1B) even with the most generous assumptions.David Cooper can (apparently) hit RH more or less as well as Lind has and isn't as lost vs LHP. He's a much cheaper and more flexible back up plan. Still, if the Jays manage to move lind, it will have to be in some situation where they can mitigate the contract. He went unclaimed this summer when any team could have had him for free.

As a personal aside, I'm pretty disappointed in how Lind has turned out. I never expected him to be an MVP candidate, as his career year implied might be possible. but I had taken for granted he would regularly land in the high .800s (for OPS) for several years.

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So basically, the leagues best RF, second best 1B, and third best 3B...you have a league average SS and C (more or less) and a CF who could be in the top 5 or 6 if he consistently did what he's capable of...and three gaping holes.

One other consideration that has to play into their thinking: Over the next couple of years, the team will anticipate integrating three high ranking prospects into their offense, while attempting to contend.  It's not wise to pencil three rookies, no matter how good, in at once. so d'Arnaud, Gose, and Hech ought, in a best case situation, be staggered. if the Jays add a projected starting outfielder this winter, which seems highly likely, then gose is looking at opening day 2014 (as far as being a starter) at the earliest. Meanwhile, d'Arnaud seems likely to not be the starter from Opening day 2013, but unlikely to wait a full year.

The implication of this is that the Jays, assuming things play out as expected in other areas, see the wisdom in going ahead and clearing the SS position for Hech, just to have him "in place" before the others arrive. but they might just as easily take it as a given he will be the last to be added to the starting lineup (say, by trading the incumbent mid-season 2014 so as to get Hech off the bench). It's impossible for the layperson to guess how they will react, but you can bet the consideration is part of the formula.

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Starting rotation - Put Brandon Morrow down as the #1, it's pretty evident at this point. Ricky Romero is the tentative #2 but the right acquisition would push him back to #3 - so say that a 2/3 spot is definitely "in play." JA Happ is well positioned to be the #4 or #5 depending on how the team finishes out the rotation. Personally I'd go for re-signing Carlos Villianueva (the team can afford it, even if they end up paying "starter money" to a guy who's their "#6" starter) under the assumption that all he has to do is get them through 20 starts or so until you begin to have other options available should he fade. and for the record, Villianuva threw over 180 IP in 2006 and I dismiss the idea that he's bound to fade. Also, Dustin McGowan might still fit in here somewhere, and Aaron Laffey remains under team control.

So yes, an opening for a 2/3 guy and one for a 4/5 guy.

You might wonder that i said nothing of Henderson Alvarez. Now that the Blue Jays have Buffalo in the fold as their AAA affiliate, I have a strong suspicion that Plan A is to return Alvarez to the minors next year for more refinement. I think it's likely Chad Jenkins ends up there two, and dark horse candidate John Stilson will join them there.Deck McGuire would have a spring chance to prove he deserves it but he will have to show that 2012 is well behind him.

Bullpen -  Pretty much set. these guys WILL be in the 2013 pen, barring trade or injury:
Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Brad Lincoln, Steve Delabar, Darren Oliver (option will be exercised, assumes no retirement), and Brett Cecil. That's six of seven spots. Technically that leaves one in play, but unless the re-sign Brandon Lyon (not impossible) or (less likely) Jason Frasor, then they will have a lot of options to address the 7th (and occasionally 8th) spot. start with Aaron Loup, who has a small sample but excellent results. then there's Joel Carreno if he learned from his mistake in 2012, and Chad Beck, and Sam Dyson (one I have my eye on) and Marcus Stroman (who can pitch in ST and would step out from under the suspension if he made the majors), and David Carpenter and Chad Jenkins and maybe even John Stilson. Oh, and Jesse Litsch health permitting.

So I'm not going to envision any potential imports here, as I'm going to suggest they either re-sign a fre agent or stay in-house.

Expect the Jays to attempt to add an upper-rotation starter, and another reliable guy if possible. while there is no assurance that the Jays will fill these holes via free agency, the third and final part of this long post lists some options for each of the clearly existing "in play" positions.

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Second Base - The field of potential free agents second baseman is thin, as, in fact, the field of potential additions via trade are. My favorite target is Omar Infante and my second favorite is Jeff Keppinger.His 2.1 WAR would put him in the middle of AL 2B if he hadn't spent most of the year playing 3B. He had a considerably higher OBP than Infante in 2012, which is very relevant, and has a 20 point edge career wise, while Infante has slightly more speed. The tie-breaker is that Infante is 2 years younger. that said, the gap between them is small. The third option, and a worthy one, is the return of Marco Scutaro. The thing that puts him in third place is that he's 4 years older than Keppinger.

Left Field - Wanna gamble on Melky Cabrera? doesn't seem the sort of risk the Blue Jays would take. Otherwise, there's Ryan Ludwick, who's 34 and could either be the Josh Willingham of this class or a serious overpayment. Then you go all the way down to Scott Hairston, who's not awful but he has an ugly OBP and he's a RH hitter (the Jays really need to plug in another quality LH hitter if possible). Looking at CF and RF free agents, there's BJ Upton, who's been awfully average the last five years for the money he will get. But the guy who jumps out at me, despite being RH, is Tori Hunter. If you can convince him to play of turf (he'd be wise not to), he's as productive as ever.  Angel Pagan  would be a good defender and a solid lead-off option but his ability to play CF makes him attractive elsewhere. and he'd be a very nice option in CF.
All that said, I expect a trade on this one, frankly.

ETA: Overlooked Nick Swisher who, should the Yankees unexpectedly let walk, would seem to be a very smooth fit in this spot. 

ETA2: I would not be completely surprised to see the Jays look in on Ichero Suzuki - though not as a starter unless they strike out on younger and better options. If they do, however, they would then turn around and flip Raji Davis to someone else as there's not a place for both on the team.

DH - David Ortiz is obviously the class of this field, and I think he'd be the Jays first choice, and they'd be his second choice. but I'm not assuming a divorce between he and the Red Sox just yet. He might decide to let the winter play out for a few months and see what the Red Sox do by, say, Christmas. One wonders if the Jays will wait that long to try and fill the hole. that said, if he brings to the team the bat he's displayed in Boston, it would be difficult to overstate what he could do for the lineup. Bautista>Ortiz>Encarnacion in the heart of the order would produce quite a few "giggity giggity goo!" reactions among Jays fans.

After that, things get much less thrilling. So much so that you could make a halfway decent case for giving the job to Jim Thome. Which is a way to say that you'd probably need to fill it with a guy who wasn't DHing in 2012, which throws the field of possibilities wide open. Mike Napoli obviously jumps out at you, though he's going to be reluctant to give up catching. There's also Lance Berkman if you can convince him there's no shame in being a DH. In fact, Berkman would be the second best option, by a wide margin, except he doesn't apparently want to do it.


SP - We'll look at the upper rotation possibilities first, then the lower end guys:

Top tier-

Zach Grienke - will want too many years.

Anibel Sanchez -has recovered his footing in the AL, expect him to try for a contract of six or more years.

Jake Peavy - if you can trust his health, and if ou can get him for, say, 4 years, he'd definately be a top of the rotation type. but it's a not insignificant gamble.

Ryan Dempster - hardly ever discussed in the whole "get more Canadians" discussion, but he's worth discussing. Age is an issue but that makes it easier to sign a shorter contract, which the Jays prefer. Don't be fooled by the Texas ERA. He got shelled in two of his first three AL starts, but he's been fine since (2.97 ERA with excellent peripherals).

James Shields - in the unlikely event that the Rays don't pick up the option, this would be an ideal addition.

Dan Haren - Angels may decline $15.5 million option, Haren may seek a one-year deal to re-establish his value. Of course, someone might step up and offer him a five year deal at a price he likes too.

Hiroki Kuroda - one has to assume he re-sings with the Yanks or returns to the Dodgers.

Brandon McCarthy - can the Jays afford this big a health gamble?



second tier-

Carlos Villianueva - who else on this (second) list inspires visions of a better cost/benefit ratio?

Edwin Jackson - will get paid like a top guy, but results say "average guy"

Shaun Marcum - emotions say "Yes!" Injuries say "hold on a sec..."

Francisco Liriano - since the middle of May he's been good other than being too wild. Assuming the Jays have no problem signing a lefty.

Gavin Floyd - if option is declined. Slowly going backwards. An average guy, but fits the "inning eater" cliche.

Rich Harden - might as well just count on McGowan, no?;

For me, I'd be FINE with Villianueva from the second list, with Marcum and Liriano both being intriguing. From the first list, there's really just too much we don't know yet to get committed to one favorite choice. If you can't get one of the expensive guys, then sign two of these three - that still wouldn't be a bad outcome, just less than ideal.

Again, I speak here only of free agents and there's every possibility that one or more of these positions might be filled by trade. For instance, the Indians still have Cord Phelps languishing behind Jason Kipnis and he shouldn't be terribly expensive (or as good, obviously, but maybe good enough to be league average for the position). There's no way to predict how that will play out.

Concerning Escobar

Ain't it the way?  Here I am yesterday finally dedicating myself to working up one of my patented gigantic posts (which any post here is all too rare this summer) and just wondering how to handle the breaking-but-predictable news of the Buffalo deal and THIS happens. Not that I'm complaining about my minor inconvenience, just noting the timing conflict. So I laid aside that draft for a couple of days in order to let my thoughts on this incident stand on their own.

I don't want to belabor the observations that are already widely published in the public record, other than to just note where I can agree. I agree with AA that the opportunity for education ought not be lost; I agree with both the proposition that he may have deserved to be benched the rest of the year, and also with the observation that given the cultural context, 3 games is not wholly unreasonable in terms of length; I agree with the observation that the league really needs to form a policy here as there seems to be a rather wild range of potential outcomes for being a public asshole as an MLB player.

Most of all I do think it's fair to acknowledge that within the cultural context of Latino players, it's not considered an offense and, indeed, within the context of professional athletics and other "locker room" type settings, it's common usage. Indeed, from what I have heard in various "guy" situations - fishing trips, poker games, whatever - (not that I'm an active participant in that circle) it's a pretty accepted "throwaway" dig that is apparently considered a "free" slur in that no one present is assumed to be offended. it is a synonym for "sissy" or "girly man" or whatever.

This in no way makes it right or acceptable - but what it is, is very very COMMON.

And therein lies the problem. 60 years ago, it was likewise common to use the work "nigger" indiscriminately with no fear of repercussion. In some circles among blacks today, they still feel entitled to use "nigga" as a "free word" that doesn't insult anyone. I heard and rebuked it often among middle school kids when I was teaching. So the idea of using an offensive word without offensive intent is legitimate.

The problem is in the implication. If a man calls another man a "sissy" he does so with the INTENT to insult, else there would be no point in calling him that. it's not a word like "mate" or "bro" - self evidently. therefore it's logical to ask "WHY is it insulting?"
Why?
Because being that which one is called is understood by mutual consent to be a BAD thing. That is, "you are less than me because you are a sissy." and THAT is why it is a slur, no matter the intent. Because the use of the term AS an insult implies the belittling and denigrating of the sort of person the label refers to. THAT is the mindset that needs changing and is most difficult to change because it often exists in the minds of people outside the locker room, the poker game, or wherever - outside that circle of folks who would ever allow themselves to speak the word "faggot" no matter what language.

There's a TV show you might be watching (if not you should be) which is Canadian in origin and currently airing on the CW network in the U.S. called "The LA Complex." One of the main characters is a "gangsta rap" star who is a closeted homosexual. Played with great skill and surprising grace by Andra Fuller, the rapper, Kaldric King, is seen to struggle fiercely with accepting himself and with the knowledge that to be exposed as a homosexual man is to commit career suicide. He does and says some very bad things in an effort to balance the competing interests and, indeed, reflects in his own view of himself the bigotry he knows exists in the culture around him. Kal is, though fictional, the other side of the coin from Yunel Escobar (and the other Latino players who are saying "it's not really a bad word to us"). He's the man who looks in the mirror and struggles to say the words "I'm a faggot" and is deeply ashamed because his culture has told him, by word and deed, that this makes him less that other men.

Changing that mindset is a MUCH bigger task than changing how Yunel thinks, and it's one that all civilized folks ought to be about doing.

Looking Back

I've noticed  something about myself, which you may have noted too - when the Blue Jays have an extended run of hard times, I end up having little to say. By nature, my fandom is built around positivity and optimism. I don't much enjoy the sort of fandom that is built around negativity and criticism. But for the last month, there's just been very little positive of which to make note. Sure there have been positive notes (Villianueva - re-sign him! Steve Delenbar, excellent value) but on the whole it's been the toughest month to be a Jays fan in probably a decade.

And, just sayin - if the sorry squad in Baltimore actually makes the playoffs based on an ocean full of dumb luck, I might just quit this game altogether. 

However, with the approaching off-season I can immerse myself in roster machinations and prospect porn and try to forget this nasty bit of business. Which brings me to tonight's theme - I'm taking a look back at the last prospect list in the spring (found here) and asking the question: How'd they do?

1.Travis d'Arnaud: as you probably know, he was tearing up the PCL before a knee injury ended his season. Not to worry, though, it's not the sort of knee injury that tends to plague catchers and shouldn't have a long term impact. Prognosis - Jays will market, but not push, JPA this winter. if he stays then d'Arnaud will open the season in AAA for at least the first couple of months.

2. Jake Marisnick: Was good-but-not-great at Dunedin, in the context of a very pitcher-friendly league. Was promoted a bit sooner than I expected and initially struggled at AA. He adjusted and hit well for a few weeks, then cooled off again. He ended the season on another hot streak, posting an OPS of .966 in his last 10 games, and he's bound for the AFL in October. Prognosis - likely to spend the first half of 2013 in AA and have the opportunity to earn a promotion by mid-season. Barring a rash of injuries, or incredible performance, don't look for him in the majors next year.

3. Anthony Gose  To be a 21 year old in AAA, he did well, but not eye-popping in AAA, but looked totally over-matched during a stint in Toronto. Unless he looks much better next spring, he will open the year in AAA and that's the best place for him right now.

4. Drew Hutchison; lost rookie eligibility, pitched well in the majors after a slightly wobbly start. Won't be back on a mound until well into next summer due to TJ surgery, and likely won't be seen in Toronto before September. A candidate, on paper, for the 2014 rotation.

5. Daniel Norris: Good strikeout rate was the one redeeming feature of his initial campaign. Reportedly has good stuff but was much more hittable than a guy with his clippings should have been. Likely ticketed for Vancouver to open 2013.

6. Noah Syndergaard: You couldn't ask for better results here. If you insisted on finding a flaw, he had some trouble adjusting to pitching in "relief" roles during the tandmen starter arrangment early in the season. but that's nitpicking.

7. Justin Nicolino: Again, nothing to complain about here. Some think he will be the first of the Lansing trio to arrive in Toronto as he's somewhat more polished than the righties.

8. Aaron Sanchez: widely viewed to have the best pure stuff of these three members of the Lansing staff, he does not quite have the strike zone control of the others. All three will no doubt move up to Dunedin next spring.

9. Adeiny Hechavarria: hit much better than expected, at times, in AAA. Scouts such as Kevin goldstien and others, who had said all along he'd have trouble being a passable major league hitter, acknowledged he had made considerable strides and it was not just a PCL illusion. Nevertheless, like Gose, he's not ready to hit at the major league level yet. That said, over the last two weeks he's raised his production up into the neighborhood of your average MLB ss so he might be a hair closer than Gose. He will likely at least begin 2013 in AAA.

10, Deck McGuire: struggled, let it get in his head, and struggled worse. Every occasional good outing is immediately followed by another train wreck. A lost season. He'll likely return to AA next year.

11. Carlos Perez: did not do as well on the second tour of the league as one might have expected. Traded to the Astros in the Happ deal.

12. Michael Crouse: Crashed and burned. Just an awful awful season.

13. Antonio Jimenez: went down early in the year with an elbow that needed Tommy John surgery. Should be ready by ST (doesn't take as long when you are not a pitcher). Should return to AA to start the year.

14. Marcu Kencht: see Crouse. He was slightly better but only slightly.

15 Adonys Cardona inconsistent and too wild in an injury shortened season. Not as bad as it looked though. Take away one appearance which resulted in 4 earned runs in only 2/3 of an inning and it's in line with his first campaign. Breakout candidate for 2013 if he stays healthy.

16.  Matt Dean: Started off cold but heated up for a couple of months before fading. Reportedly struggled mightily with the glove all year. Disappointing but not disastrous. With a good spring, he could land a promotion to Vancouver.

17. Kevin Comer: was just "okay" - reportedly suffered a velocity drop. Belongs to Houston now.

18. Roberto Osuna: electric, fantastic, impressive. Almost certainly a top 10 prospect this winter. Might start the year back in Vancouver but they have been aggressive so far and there's a solid chance he breaks camp with Lansing.

19. Asher Wojciechowski: Inconsistant, dominant at times and mediocre at others. Traded.

20.  Chad Jenkins: I was worried about ranking him this high, and it seemed for a while I was justified in worrying. A surprise promotion to Toronto and even more surprising success has put him back on the map. Still, I don't think there's room on the major league roster for him on opening day next year, unless there are injuries.

21. Chris Hawkins: Not awful, but certainly disappointing. Not the numbers you look for from a top 20 prospect.

22. Jacob Anderson: Horrible struggles at the plate. Not at all what was hoped for.

23. Dwight Smith, Jr.: Not awful, but awfully pedestrian. More was expected.

24. Moises Sierra: Good but not great at Vegas, but when the door was opened by injury, he flew past Gose and seized the moment. Don't be fooled though. The 1:8 BB:K rate is alarming, and - after being on fire for the first couple of weeks, he's come down to earth real hard. In the last 10 games, his OPS is .384 so don't be penciling him into left field next year just yet.

25. DJ Thon: Still unimpressive. It's impossible to tell from stats alone how much this is a result of his health issues last year. Will be way down the list next time though.

26. John Stilson: seemed to run out of gas towards the end so the final line is not eye-popping. but there were a lot of good signs and I wouldn't be shocked to see him land in AAA when the teams break camp next spring.

27. Christian Lopes: a nice solid start for a high school draftee. Encouraging. Good chance he breaks camp with Lansing next spring.

28. Sean Nolin: Took a big leap in 2011, and a HUGE leap in 2012. Has gone from a guy on the fringes of the top 40 to a candidate for the top 10-12 spots.

29. Joe Musgrove: pitched only a few innings before being traded.

30. Joel Carreno: had a golden opportunity, and reportedly came to camp out of shape. Whatever the cause, he blew his shot and has been passed on the depth chart be several. probably in the AAA bullpen next April.

31. Mike McDade: Another case of a guy who was okay, but not so good as to have made a case for himself as a player to be excited about. Likely back to AAA next year, potentially sharing 1B/DH with David Cooper unless one of them (or Adam Lind) leaves the organization.

32. Wilmer Becarra: Season was shortened when he was hit by a pitch and missed most of the GC Jays schedule. In an 11 game sample, he had an OPS as good as any on the team (not counting re-habbers). Likely will return to the GCL next year, but might make the cut for Bluefield.

33. Dewal Lugo - like Becarra, he was ranked her based mostly on the praise the team received for signing them. The GCL was a low-offense league, but even in that context Lugo was mediocre at best. Still, he's just 17 and holding your own in the GCL at 17, as opposed to still being in the Dominican league, speaks well of him.

34. David Cooper: Graduated from rookie status this year, out-preformed most published expectations for him offensively, but also demonstrated he's a natural DH where the offensive expectations are somewhat higher. Looks to be a decent supporting player but not a star.

35. Kelen Sweeney: Started off slow again, continuing last year's poor offensive production - but he got better as the year went on and had an OPS of over .800 in August. If he can maintain that he'll be back on the radar. Likely to be assigned to Lansing next spring, if a starting opportunity exists.

36. Griffin Murphy: moved into a relief role this year and, for whatever reason, blossomed. Pitching mosr of the year for Bluefield, he posted an ERA under 2 and his ratios supported that result. A bit old for the short season, he really should open the year in Lansing next year.

37. Mark Biggs: small sample, accumulated mostly in relief, in the GCL. Struggled early, but turned it on as July arrived and pitched well in the final two months. Can't read too much into 20 hot innings. One of those guys who should be able to make the cur for Bluefield next spring.

38. Mitchell Taylor: Left baseball before the season started, reportedly with some sort of emotional issues.

39. Evan Crawford: pitching in Toronto early in the season, but was inconsistent and seemed to never find his footing anywhere as the team moved him up and down. Still a promising bullpen option, but next hear's pen might already be full with presumptive candidates.

40. Jario Labourt: pitched well, but a couple of other Dominican signings did even better. Probably in Bluefield next year to start.

41.Jeremy Gabryszwski:: Great ERA, less than one walk per nine, but much lower K rate than is customarily associated with a top prospect. Of course, Dyson is widely praised without a lot of K's so that's inconclusive.

42. Jesus Gonzalez: Like most GCL Jays, showed little offensively (though he did lead the team in doubles). But like Lugo, being in the GCL instead of the Dominican at 17 means you need to have some slack cut for you.

43. Tom Robson: An injury limited to three appearances totaling 11 innings. Conclusions can't really be attempted.

44. Yan Gomes: in the spring I said " may never realize abilities in our system due to crowding. But he's got talent." - I think he backed me up, though he needs to make some adjustments at the major league level for being a bench player.

45. Manuel Cordova: assigned to the DSL, didn't get into a game. One assumes injury but he was not on the DL so it's uncertain what the story is here.

46. Alan Farina: coming back from TJS, Farina wasn't expected to do much and didn't at first but he closed well, with a 1.88 ERA in august, and seems ready to get back on the radar in 2013. consider him a sleeper for next season.

47. Tyler Ybarra: I expected him to be in a rotation this season but he spent the year in the bullpen at Lansing. At 22 he was old for that league, particularly for a reliever, but he quietly had a pretty good season, with a lovely K rate and more walks than would be ideal. Could still make the climb.

48. Santiago Nessy: lost more time to injury than you'd like, but did nothing to remarkably improve or depress his prospect status.

49. Anthony DeSclafinin: spent the season in the shadow of the Lansing Big 3 - not remotely in their league in terms of talent. He was serviceable but too hittable, and I'm not optimistic.

50. Gabriel Cenas: Spent the year not hitting along with the rest of the GCL squad. Lots of patience still required.

---------------------
Best seasons by guys not on this list (but might well be on the next one)-
Kevin Pillar
Taylor Cole
Javiar Avendano
 Yefry Del Rosario
Alberto Tirado
Matt Wright
Griffin Murphy
Seth Conner

And, of course, many 2012 draftees will be on the next list.

4/5 Farm Report

Technically a couple of days early but I have the time for this right now. As always my goal is to highlight a dozen players or so who are greatly increasing their standing in the organization over the season so far, with an emphasis on the last month or so.


Pitchers

1. Roberto Osuna (RHP) - the 17 year old made a kinda good impression in his first start for the Vancouver Canadians after having been excellent in 7 appearances for Bluefield. In that game he struck out a mere 13 opposing hitters, while allowing one hit and one walk in 5 innings of work. His second start was less note-worthy but no pitcher in the organization has done more to climb the prospect list this year than Osuna. Albeit that is also owing to his bonus-baby status.

2. Taylor Cole (RHP) - if any "below the radar" guy in the system is prepared to challenge Osuna for the biggest leap up the charts, it's Cole. Last year he got into 11 games, 8 of them starts, and threw 33.2 innings. In those he gave up 22 runs and had a 1.54 WHIP.  This year, so far, he's pitched 35 innings in seven games. in those he's given up ONE earned run. His WHIP this year is 0.91 and his 0.26 ERA is insane. Cole was considered something of a steal as a 29th round pick in 2011 but he's still much more of a "where did this guy come from?" player than Osuna.

3. Javiar Avendano (RHP)  - this 21 year old RHP was a minor league Rule Five pick last winter and opened the season in the Lansing bullpen. He pitched well there but being a very good reliever in the low minors is a marginal thing. when the short season teams started he shifted to Vancouver and began his development as a starter and that's when he really caught some attention. In nine starts for the Canadians he has a 1.53 ERA and the ratios all support that. Like Cole, he could use a promotion to Lansing before the end of the season.

4. Marcus Storeman (RHP) - the very opposite of low profile, his promotion schedule is not a surprise but it's worth noting he's lived up to the hype so far. his arrival at AA on August 1 might seem odd to you (no stop in Dunedin) but there's a method to it - this makes him eligible for the AFL, where he will surely participate. In my view it's unlikely the team ties up a 40 man roster spot on him with a September promotion.

5. Aaron Loup (LHP) - Loup was not completely off the radar coming into the year because the jays made him part of the AFL contingent last fall, but in the spring the buzz was about Evan Crawford and Loup faded into the background. when the Jays turned to a young pitcher early in the year it was Crawford they called, but it's been Loup who's accumulated success. He did solid work in New Hampshire before joining the jays, and in the majors he's walked 1 against 9 K's in 13 innings of work, while making a fan of John Farrell.

6. Sanchez/Nicolino/Syndergaard - you already know who these guys are, and each in their own way have solidified their standing. I didn't want to let three such known quantities take over this list. they are only ranked so low because everyone expected great things so there's less room for upward movement in terms of prospect status.

7. Danny Barnes (RHP) - Lower-level relievers must always be viewed with some skepticism, but he's been mowing them down in Dunedin just as he did in Lansing last year. He certainly belongs in the conversation with other minor league relievers in the system that you have heard of, even if his "stuff" might take a back seat.  .

Hitters

1. Kevin Pillar (CF) - Viewed with some skepticism because of his age, Pillar has done nothing but flat out hit the baseball.  After spanking the MWL for the entire first half, the speedy Pillar was promoted to Dunedin after the major league ASB and didn't miss a beat. Since he's played this year at age 23 there was a natural skepticism about his hitting as being "too old for the league" but his speed (43 steals over two levels) and consistency have to be respected. Reed Johnson comparisons spring immediately to mind.

2. Seth Conner (C/3B) - his conversion to catcher was accelerated when bonus baby Santiago Nessy spent a few weeks on the DL opening up playing time for Conner. In 26 games in Bluefield he's posted a .900 OPS and he's gotten better as time has passed. A 41st round pick in 2010 out of high school, he's obviously not the sort of guy who's high profile but he's beginning to catch some eyes.

3. Christian Lopes (2B) - One of my favorite picks from the 2011 draft, Lopes isn't setting the league on fire at Bluefield, but he's been a steady consistent above average hitter in that line-up. I hope to see him in Lansing to open the season next year. I would also hope to see his doubles-power develop into the over-the-fence variety at some point.

4. Art Charles (1B) - Speaking of over the fence, there's Charles. He's a 6'6" masher who hits for a low average and moon-shot power. He also walked more than once a game while playing for Bluefield before his late July promotion to Vancouver. Truth is, he's likely to be exploited against better pitching at higher levels, but you have to tip your hat to his work this year.

5. Kenny Wilson (CF) - to be clear, I'm not a big Wilson fan, but in a season when promotions, injuries, and trades have thinned the ranks of the upper level hitting prospects, he sneaks on to the end of this list just on the strength of having rescued what had seemed to be a lost career. Still just 22, the 2008 pick seems like he's been in the system forever. His highest BA before this season was .216 (this year he hit .252 at Lansing before being promoted and he's started off hot at Dunedin in a mere 7 games). His one offensive quality, he's good for 40+ steals a season (which is kind of a remarkable thing when you aren't even hitting .220)

Obligatory Remarks

Simple point: I loved Eric Thames from the day he was drafted and i will continue to follow his career but, ultimately, he's probably just a guy. In terms of actual baseball accomplishments. Think of, say, Jacob Brumfield (not making a direct comparison, just speaking of the sort of carer that seems likely). We dealt him for another "just a guy" type of player. no need for any passion spent on Thames being dealt.

Harder point: I love - LOVE - Travis Snider and still harbor considerable expectations for his future. It breaks my heart to see him go. That said, if the Jays didn't have faith in him he might never have reached his potential here and i think clearly they were losing that faith. In terms of value, I don't necessarily think we "lost" the deal, as I think Lincoln is very good. But when I reflect on all the bodies that had to move in order to get Colby Rasmus, I wonder if just one guy isn't a bit less than what I would have expected - which makes me wonder if Lincoln is even better than I realize, or I'm just being irrational about Snider.

Going forward, one does wonder exactly how Stroman, Santos, and Lincoln all fit together in the back end of the future bullpen.

Speaking of Marcus Stroman, he was promoted to New Hampshire Monday after having strung together 10 dominant scoreless innings in Vancouver. Not co-incidentally, this makes him eligible for placement in the Arizona Fall League (which, IMO, is why he wasn't stepped up to Dunedin instead).Don't look for him in Toronto this year, as it would unnecessarily burn a 40 man roster spot.

One other note regarding minor league pitching - Roberto Osuna might be the hottest and fastest rising prospect in the system. Other blogs are doing far better work at profiling these guys than I've had time to do but I did want to give a shout out to Osuna for his Vancouver debut. It might only take him a couple more seasons, maybe less, to be at the head of the line for promotion to Toronto.