Sunday, 2 May 2010

Prospect List Update for April

Kinda quick and dirty here, not very scientific. I tried not to push anyone down on account of being injured unless other players forced their way in front. I also tried to remember relative sample size (i.e. if a good prospect did GREAT it mattered more than if a non-prospect did great because it's only a month). If a player didn't do dramatically better or worse than his ranking deserved I tried to leave him alone.

1. Kyle Drabek - looked like he'd slip but he pulled it together.
2. Brett Wallace - pushing for #1
3. Henderson Alverez - Ditto
4. Adeiny Hechevarria - this is where I put him initially.
5. Zach Stewart - had another bad outing today
6. JP Arencibia - solidifying his status.
7. Travis d'Arnaud - ditto.
8. Chad Jenkins - doing ok.
9. Brad Mills - Demands your attention.
10. Jake Marisnicjk - no disrespect, Mills earned it.
11. Mosies Seirra - no games yet
12. Justin Jackson - very small sample, but looked good.
13. Carlos Perez - no games yet.
14. Josh Roenicke - looks good so far.
15. Brad Emaus - will force his way further up if he keeps up this pace.
16. Gustavo Pierre - no games yet.
17. Eric Thames - Like Emaus, pushing hard to move up.
18. Robert Bell - also has a bit of helium about him I think.
19. Tim Collins - May hasn't been kind but this is based on April.
20. Danny Farquhar - needs to refine control
21. Tyler Pastornicky - a third player that would move up if I had anyone moving down.
22. Scott Campbell - still on DL
23. Kevin Ahrens - only active for a few games yet.
24. Brian Dopirak - the big drop in the top 25, he was 18 pre-season.
25. Brian Jeroloman - Moved up all the way from 35.
26. Darin Mastorianni - mixed results, gotta love the speed though.
27. David Cooper - Down from 16.
28. Trystan Magnuson - has been very good so far
29. Antonio Jimenez - on fire.
30. Yan Gomes - sleeper of the catcher prospects.
31. Luis Perez - not as impressed as some were, control is an issue.
32. KC Hobson - no games yet.
33. Joe Vargas - no games yet.
34. Sean Ochinko - mixed results.
35. Adam Loewen - slipping behind others who are doing better right now.
36. John Tolisano- injured at the moment but wasn't stepping up even before.
37. Robert Sobolewski - heating up.
38. Bobby Ray - got to get his control in order.
39. Chuck Huggins - bumps Liebel from the list.
40. Ryan Goins - tenuous grip on the list.

I know I know it's very superficial to shift players around based on a months at-bats, but it can be considered something like "Power Rankings" that get shifted weekly.

While I'm doing this, let me stop a moment and take some credit for a Wild-hair idea before it gets so widely circulated that I lose my claim to being first with the thought. I mentioned something on Batter's Box a few nights ago and it came up in another thread this afternoon and I want to get in front of the idea and put it in a place of it's own (although if I really want to do that i'll probably need to do a whole special post on the thought in a few days). The thought is this:

Kansas City is apparently losing patience with one-time Golden Boy Alex Gordon. There's probably not a worse run organization in the game right now than the Royals (with the possible exception of the Astros) and it seems to me that, if Alex Anthopoulos' scout tell him there is still potential for him to realize his promise, it's a situation ripe for the picking. I want to be on record as being the first person, as far as I know, to come out strongly in favor of trying to pick up Gordon on the cheap and turn him around.

Now, yes, "cheap" is a relative term here. it's not going to be without cost. but it's also not going to be at the price one normally associates with a player of his former pedigree. Think maybe Mills and Jeroloman and a low-level throw in, for instance. You'd have to figure out what to do with EE, of course. Send him over in the deal (while eating a couple mil of his contract)? find some other trade partner (tough to do - Twins maybe?) I'm not sure. But I am sure that I'd love to gamble on Gordon finding the magic again, unless the scouts tell us he's lost a lot of bat speed or some such.

I might well elaborate on the idea in a future post but there it is, at least.

I'm on the record.


gabriel said...

I'd like to hang on to Jerolman and see what he can do. I don't think he'd be properly valued by KC. Good defense and a great eye?

Also, hitting stats at AA NH and AAA LV are basically equivalent, which while a pain in the ass for the Jays generally makes evaluation of our AA & AAA hitters a little easier for us.

Just going through fangraphs, there isn't anything identifiably wrong with Gordon. He's actually doing two things notably well this year- hitting line drives (26%) and walking (18%). He's been victimized by horrid BABIP luck (.227)

The concerns with Gordon are his declining ISO and his defence, which according to UZR is slightly below-average. Definitely worth taking a risk on. Butterfield should be able to help him in the field.

mathesond said...

I'd be happy if the Jays could acquire Gordon. But I suppose it depends on what Moore's process says is fair value

Gil Fisher said...

fyi, Ryan Goins is on fire. OPSing 1.126 over past ten games.