Saturday, October 30, 2010

60 Names to Know for 2011

Wrapping up my pontifications on the Jays Farm System (for now) I conclude with The Massive overkill Top Prospect list. This will be a Top 60 List, but before I do it let me explain something – I KNOW that NO team ACTUALLY has 60 PROSPECTS. So I decided to call it “60 Names to Know” but for all intents and purposes, it's my Top Prospect list supplemented with a lot of other players I consider worthy of at least some degree of interest. 
I further remind you that after the top 10 or 15, relative positions are not that important – being 21 or 23 doesn't matter much . . . being 21 instead of 31 does. Also, I'm constantly adjusting my list at this time of year and if you find that a couple of guys are reversed from where they were on the positional list, that's not a mistake but a reflection of an updated opinion. Because I commented so extensively on the Positional Lists, I'll try to keep my remarks here brief. The parenthesis indicate a guess at ETA under an “all things being equal” assumption (i.e. assuming no injuries, trades, etc which might alter the timeline)

  1. Kyle Drabek - RHP - (2010 – ready now, may not arrive for good 'til mid-season) – Could very easily break camp with Jays, depth of choices might push that back. Ace potential.
  2. Zach Stewart – RHP - (2011) – results last year very similar to Drabek, maybe not quite the ceiling but a lot closer than many think.
  3. J.P. Arencibia – C - (2010) – nothing left to prove in AAA. Opening day starter, barring a trade or injury. Looks very much like Buck 2.0 though maybe not in first year.
  4. Carlos Perez – C – (2015) – Probably better than JPA, Jays have luxury of taking time. Might switch positions depending. Might be #1 on this list a year from now.
  5. Adeiny Hechevarria – SS – (mid/late-2012) – Escobar gives Jays chance to be patient. Might end up a similar player in the majors.
  6. Anthony Gose – CF – (2014) – conservative schedule since he's said to be raw. Crawford type?
  7. Henderson Alvarez – RHP – (mid-2014) - Rough season, still quite young. As above, depth gives him plenty of time, but he's the kind of guy who could “click” and come faster.
  8. Aaron Sanchez – RHP – (mid-2015) – A LOT of positive buzz about the kid.
  9. Jake Marisnick – CF – (2015) – Very positive reports, May slide to RF if Gose develops as projected.
  10. Deck McGuire – RHP – (2014) – seems to be somewhat better regarded than Jenkins.
  11. Travis d'Arnaud – C – (late 2013) – Dropped some, more because of the nature of the injury (back) than because of the on field results of being hurt.
  12. Eric Thames – LF – (late 2011) – last three could be in any order – I'm a believer in his offensive potential.
  13. Chad Jenkins – RHP – (2014) – I think the late season fade was fatigue, but scouting reports have an unenthusiastic tone sometimes.
  14. Asher Wojciechowski – RHP – (2015) – might come faster but a lot of bodies to sift through in front of him. Physically a clone of Jenkins.
  15. Antonio Jimenez – C – (2014) – I like him, not a level below the three catchers in front of him – higher potential to bust.
  16. Adonis Cardona – RHP – (2017) – Paid like a first rounder, I'll rank him like one for now.
  17. Dicke Joe Thon – SS – (2016) – similar thinking, first round talent and pay. Henceforth I shall call him “DJ” just because I wish it.
  18. Noah Syndergaard – RHP – (2016) – I'm kind of skeptical of the sudden senior explosion but open minded.
  19. Drew Hutchenson – RHP – (2015) – Under some radars, and a lot of higher profile folks on the depth chart, but has a chance.
  20. Brad Emaus – 2B/3B – (2011) – Emaus is this low only because the ceiling is lower. I have a lot of confidence he'll reach it.
  21. Gustavo Pierre – SS – (late 2015) – Still very raw, but excellent tools
  22. Mosies Sierra – RF – (2014) – Might develop faster, but depth allows caution.
  23. Darin Mastroianni – CF – (late 2011) – might be 2012 before a roster spot opens, Brett Gardner type.
  24. Kevin Ahrens – 3B – (2014) – One last benefit of the doubt, based on good results after he stopped switch hitting.
  25. Griffin Murphy – LHP – (mid 2015) – Well regarded draftee, ranking based on reports.
  26. Kellen Sweeney – 3B – (2015) – same as Murphy, good results in small pro sample
  27. Adam Loewen – RF – (2012) – Team execs still speak highly, some possibility of move to 1B.
  28. Joel Carreno – RHP – (late 2012) – might be reliever in the majors.
  29. Sam Dyson – RHP – (2015) – great stuff, fragile. Potential as late inning reliever, as well as starter.
  30. David Cooper – 1B – (mid/late 2012) – much better in second half – illusion?
  31. Daniel Webb – RHP – (2016) – good stuff, raw. Likely to move slowly.
  32. Brian Jeroloman – C – (2012) – would be higher if he projected to hit at all in the majors.
  33. Marcus Kenect – RF – (2015) – well regarded hitter
  34. Brad Mills – LHP – (2011) – trade bait? That or the bullpen.
  35. Danny Farquhar – RHP – (late 2011) – this low because of his position. He's good.
  36. Trystan Magnuson – RHP – (late 2011) – Same comment as Farquhar.
  37. Alan Farina – RHP – (2012) – Ditto. Just a half year or so behind those two.
  38. Mike McDade – 1B – (maybe 2014 if at all) – More likely Calvin Pickering than Cecil Fielder
  39. Michael Crouse – RF – (2016) – Might take big jump up list if results continue.
  40. KC Hobson – 1B – (mid 2015) – well regarded by scouts and team.
  41. Justin Jackson – SS/2B – (maybe never, not before 2015) – might be running out of chances.
  42. Justin Nicolino – LHP – (2016) based on draft reports.
  43. Chris Hawkins – 3B – (2016) – less strike zone control than Sweeney.
  44. John Tolisano – IF/OF – (never) – lack of defensive home hurts.
  45. Mark Sobolewski – 3B – hasn't lived up to post-draft praise, but not a failure either.
  46. Gabriel Cenas – 3B – too young to predict outcome, bonus babies often fail.
  47. Devy Estrada – RHP – results might be an illusion, doesn't come up when system is praised.
  48. Bobby Bell – RHP (2013) – eventually a reliever, even if he starts now for the innings.
  49. Scott Campbell – 2B – can he get his health back?
  50. Casey Lawrence – RHP – non-drafted steal, or mirage?
  51. Ryan Goins – SS – didn't handle promotion to Dunedin well.
  52. Santiago Nessey – C – another very young bonus baby.
  53. Egan Smith – LHP – a lot of good results but unheralded.
  54. Sean Ochinko – C/3B – versitility, organizational awards, not a high ceiling.
  55. Yan Gomes – C – fringy major league guy at best unless he takes a leap.
  56. Nestor Molina – RHP – sleeper
  57. Mitchell Taylor – LHP – considered good draft choice
  58. Sean Nolin – LHP – Ditto.
  59. Myles Jaye – RHP – a few reports considered him a good value where he was drafted.
  60. Luis Perez – LHP – fringy lefty might sneak into bullpen role.

Also worth notice: Bobby Ray, Frank Gailey, Kyle Ginley, Dustin Antolin, Lance Durham. Include all the non-rookies who might be on the major league roster at some point next year and you have almost 100 players who might be worthy of the interest of a die-hard Jays-junkie. Please forgive any names misspelled. It's too late for me to cross-reference and proof them all.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

In general, what's your assessment of the Jays system? Compared to a few years ago? Compared to other teams' systems?

mathesond said...

What do you think of a potential Gose/Marisnick/Thames outfield

The Southpaw said...

I think the system is much better than it was, say, 3 years ago - but I also don't think it was a total train wreck then like some do. Six players in 2010, 5 of them important players, wold have been on a similar list 3 years ago.

But that said, i think that this is as much talent as we've had at one time on the farm singe the days of Green/Delgado/Gonzo etc.

I'm not a great expert on other teams' depth but my instinct is that we should be able to argue for a ranking in the top third.

Mat -

I love the idea of that outfield. But you are looking at 2015 for the two younger guys.

Gil Fisher said...

FYI, Baseball America agrees with me that Alvarez took a step forward this year (not backward as you contend).

They also have Casey Kelly, he of the 5+ ERA, as Boston's #1 prospect today.

I think you really hung up on stats at A+ that are unreliable at best. And a 4.00 ERA for a 20 year-old with a plus fastball and plus change up at high A is extremely encouraging. He's pretty close to Deck McGuire in where they'll start next year (maybe ahead) and he's a year younger than Deck. I'm not saying he's a better prospect than Deck, but he's close.

The Southpaw said...

Eh?

Where did I say he went backwards? All I've said, here or on the pitcher list, is that he got hittable (the BAA against stats bear that out) and that he was shut down for a little while (which is not something that happens if you are on a roll unless you are injured).

I LIKE Alvarez, I ranked him ahead of McGuire and like him better as a prospect.

i DO base a lot of my analysis on stats because, absent scouting reports or other authoritative sources of info - that's all I've got. but I make no secret of it.

Hopefully no one takes me as seriously as they do, for instance, Sickels or BA.

Gil Fisher said...

You've been consistently negative about Alvarez' season. Perhaps your expectations were out of whack.

The Southpaw said...

From what I've seen second hand about BA's chat on their top-10, they thought Alvarez had at least a mixed season as well.

And they dropped him out of the top 10 (albeit as much because of new additions as because of his season, but still - a more obvious adjustment than the one I made)

And they are the professionals.

Anonymous said...

yo pienzo que gabriel ceñas es muy joven todavia.pero estoy seguro que va a demostrar en poco tiempo el gran talento que tiene, su bate es muy bueno y su brazo es exelente, ojala en pocos años lo podamos ver en las grandes ligas