Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Mid Season Prospect Ranking

Everybody's doing it - you know ima gonna!

I am going to try to be a little less verbose than usual here because I've been giving you blurbs on these guys all season. This is sort of a "work in progress" list in that any time the sample size gets smaller the rankings get more tentative.

1. Brett Lawrie - Duh. Probably won't be on the off-season list because he's about to graduate.
2. Henderson Alvarez - Increasing notoriety means scouts are noticing something exciting.
3. Travis d'Arnaud - setting himself apart from other catcher prospects in the system.
4. Anthony Gose - still very young, but very exciting.
5. Jake Marisnick - moving slower than Gose but may be just as good.
6. Aaron Sanchez - very raw but huge ceiling.
7. Deck McGuire - handling first pro-season with ease, may reach AA this year.
8. Carlos Perez - not a great year, but has great talent.
9. Zach Stewart - difficult to tell from stats but team clearly loves him.
10. Eric Thames - another potential graduate.
11. Drew Hutchinson - has rocketed up my chart, would go higher in weaker system.
12. Adeiny Hechevarria - already best glove in baseball, have to wait on bat.
13. Antonio Jimenez - bat slacking some as season wears on.
14. Nestor Molina - out of nowhere and on the radar.
15. Chad Jenkins - still watching to see how he plays at upper levels.
16. Marcus Knecht - another fast riser.
17. Moises Sierra - his manager loves him, stats need to trend upward a bit.
18. Noah Syndergaard - another guy who'd be higher in most other systems.
19. Adonis Cardona - still largely speculative.
20. Asher Wojciechowski - struggled for a while, possible over-reliance on fastball.
21. Adam Loewen - I hate ranking him this low, I think he'll play well in the majors.
22. Mike McDade - keeps proving doubters wrong.
23. David Cooper - knocked down a couple of points for lack of defensive skills.
24. Michael Crouse - could climb a lot of refined.
25. Justin Nicolino - has been very impressive so far.
26. DJ Thon - speculative so far.
27. Kellen Sweeney - likewise.
28. Griffin Murphy - and again.
29. Joel Carreno - another guy who's exceeding the professional's expectations.
30. (tie) Justin Jackson - could still be a valuable utility guy (Ryan Freel with a better glove?)
30. (tie) Brad Mills - seems unlikely to get a chance for the jays but being the best pitcher in the PCL should get you SOME notice.

After the draftees sign or not, some of them will be top 30 names - Beede likely in the top 10 and Norris and Dean, IF they signed, would probably be in the top 20. That could go as high as 9 or 10, depending on who signs, in the top 50 .

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Bonus material!

This is a strange, as Paul Harvey used to say: Shi Davidi reports that John Farrell has set his post-break rotation thusly:

7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil

Looks fine, right? You just jumped into the logical rotation at #4 (Reyes) and moved on. BUT Farrell goes on to say that after the first time through he'd use the off-day to flip Reyes and Romero to - per Richard Griffin - "get Ricky back in the top spot."

HUH?!?

That rotation HAS Ricky in the top spot! Here's what happens with the reported flip:

7/14 - Reyes
7/15 - Villianueva
7/16 - Romero
7/17 - Morrow
7/18 - off
7/19 - Cecil
7/20 - Romero (on three days rest!)
7/21 - Villianueva
7/22 - Reyes
7/23 - Morrow
7/24 - Cecil
7/25 - off
7/26 - Romero
7/27 - Villianueva
7/28 - Reyes
7/29 - Morrow
7/30 - Cecil
7/31 - Romero
(After the deadline, we don't know who will be in the rotation)

Villianueva is our #2 now? How does this make sense? Farrell said they had mapped out the rest of the season and they tried to plan ahead for favorable match-ups and such but I've done that too (I do it all the time, don't ask) and there's no improved match-up (which really comes down to throwing your best guys at the best teams) by flipping Ricky and Jo-Jo. The only thing i could see is getting Reyes' last start in July three days before the end of the month so as to maximize the trade window, but I can't see a team significantly changing their intent based on one start.

I'm confuzzled.

I'm going to try and knock out a review/preview on the major league squad tomorrow, I'm ready to see the new kid-friendly team show their stuff.

1 comment:

Mylegacy said...

Tammy - good list.

Interestingly (or not considering my modest ability to project my finances - let alone my ability to figure out how living breathing competitive animals are going to grow) I did a draft list of 15 Position Prospects and 15 Pitching Prospect the other day. However, except for Cooper I excluded ANY player who had played in the Show. SO - Stewart, Mills, Loewen and Thames don't make my list.

SO...JUST LOOKING AT PITCHERS... your 1st Pitcher was...

1) You: Alvarez, me Alvarez.

2) You: Sanchez, me Hutchison.

3) You McGuire, me McGuire.

4) You Stewart (played in majors so not considered on my list) SO your actual 4) was... Hutchison. My 4) was Molina.

5) You Molina, me Carreno. Carreno's actual on field results are just getting way too hard to not respect.

6) You Jenkins, me Syndergaard. I'm really high on him - as - I notice are you.

7) You Syndergaard, me Sanchez.

8) You Cardona, me Nicolino.

9) You Asher W., me Murphy. This is more a comment on Murphy possibly the best HS lefty when drafted.

10) You Nicolino, me Asher W.

11) You Murphy, me Jenkins.

12) You Carreno, me Estrada.

I also listed: Taylor at (14), Cardona at (15){Interestingly, I am VERY, VERY high on Cardona - BUT - I need to see some serious results before putting him higher) and Escolante at (16).

POSITION PLAYERS...

1) You Lawrie, me Lawrie.

2) You d'Arnaud, me too!

3) You Gose, me three!

4) You Marisnick, me Cooper. I think Cooper doesn't have the power bat to be a Star. BUT - I think he's the highest "trade chip" prospect we've got. I think he'll be a BIG piece of a major trade.

5) You Perez, me Knecht. I'm in LOVE with this guy's future.

6) You Thames (ineligible for my list so you're #6 is actually Hech. My choice here is...Hech.

7) You Jimenez, me Marisnick.

8) You Knecht, me Jimenez.

9) You Sierra, me McDade. Gold Glove at first power and average from right and left...yummy.

10) You Loewen (ineligible for my list so your #10 is: McDade. Mine is Sierra.

11) You Cooper, me Perez.

12) You Crouse, me Crouse.

13) You Thon, me Nessy.

14) You Sweeney, me Art Charles - I think this guy is gonna be a powerhouse.

15) You Jackson, me Pierre.

16) Me Jackson.

All considered - it looks like, "Great minds think (materially) alike". OR as my spouse would say - "Idiots seldom differ."

While we didn't see eye to eye on everything - I wouldn't be at all surprised if your list proved to be more accurate than mine - or visa-versa - for that matter.

Keep up the good work!