Sunday, July 31, 2011

Progress

The Toronto Blue Jays, in a somewhat rare confluence, arrived at the end of July and the 2/3 point in the season on the same day today. Brandon Morrow marked the occasion - also the occasion of Roberto Alomar Day which in turn provoked an even rarer event in Toronto, a mid-season sellout - with one of his best games of the year, striking out 11 Rangers over 7 innings and getting his 8th win of the year.

It is always tricky to project past results into future performance, since all hitters have peaks and valleys throughout the season, and also because the number of games you miss in one part of the season doesn't mean you will miss a like number in the next part. Still, I like to play with numbers (on a very elementary level admittedly) so I can't help but make some random observations:

  • The team as a whole is on a pace for 83 wins (well, 82.5 but that's not going to happen) - i expect given the current roster construction (and the anticipated arrival) that they will do better than that.
  • Morrow has 8 wins in 19 starts and Romero has 8 in 21 - both figures pro-rate out to 12 on the season but Morrow might end u with the team lead unless Ricky gets more run support.
  • Not really an "on-pace" comment - But Frank Francisco has been good over the last two months (not the story you usually hear I know). He given up 7 ER in 18 IP since the last appearance in may, but 5 of those runs came in only 2 appearances (totaling only 1 out). without those two appearances his ERA over the last two months is 1.02 - which kinda works for me.
  • Adam Lind has only played in 82 games - just over half a season's worth. if he preformed at his current rates over 162 games he'd have 38 homers and almost 120 RBI.
  • JP Arencibia is on pace to shatter the jays team record for HR by a catcher and has a shot at Eric Hinske's rookie record of 24. Over his last 8 games he's hitting .346 and has 5 homers.
  • Jose Bautista's pace is now 47 homers and 106 RBI.
  • Eric Thames is in the midst of his first prolonged slump (0 for his last 13) but in his first 44 games as a Blue Jays, his 162 game pace is for 44 doubles and 18 homers.
All of which means very little, really, but I'm expecting the next third to be the most enjoyable 54 games of baseball the Jays have played in a long long time.

Oh, and about the passing of the trade deadline - almost every player you'd want to see the Jays turn over this summer is easily going to pass through waivers. Or be dealt to a claiming team. There could easily be more deals.

2 comments:

Mylegacy said...

Tammy - progress indeed!

I see our 2011 win number a bit differently than you do. In our last 19 games we've won 13. I suggest we'll finish 2011 at that win rate. THUS - yours truly predicts - wait for it - isn't the suspense thrilling - I predict 93 wins!

The Southpaw said...

I think they will tear through August like gangbusters and then level off some in September against the harder competition - particularly with NY and Boston fighting pretty hard for first place.

I could see them winning 2/3 of their next 27 games but only about .500 the rest of the way out - so that's 30ish more wins...something like the 86-89 range.