Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Top 50 Prospects: Part 1

So. Brian Jeroloman is back. AA never lets me complete a list in peace. For the record, I had him at #73 (this pushes Marcus Brisker out of the top 100 - yes, I have an irrational attachment to having Scott Campbell on the list).

Now, let the festivities begin!

50. Alan Farina (age 25 on opening dayof minor league season) RHP - Will miss most if not all of 2012 recovering from TJ. Still has pretty good future after recovery.
49. Sam Dyson (24) RHP - has been recovering from injury, at least one recent report said he'd had a setback. Good stuff but plagued by injury.
48. Santiago Nessy (19) C - could go a lot higher if he stays at Catcher and succeeds, much harder to impress if he has to move out to 1B. Big kid for a catcher.
47. Manuel Cordova (17?) RHP - One of the summers well regarded bonus babies.
46. Jesus Gonzalez (17?) OF - another 2011 summer signing. All of these guys in the top 50 were well regarded by scouts and paid like high draft picks.
45. Anthony DeSclafini (22) RHP - Sixth round pick this summer, some good reports though largely overlooked in the praise for other picks.
44. Tom Robson (18) RHP - Canadian hero, 4th round pick this year. Will be a sentimental favorite for many.
43. Jeremy Gabryswski (19) RHP - Second rounder this year, another guy who didn't get the publicity of some others but some observers like him a good bit.
42. Yan Gomes (24) C - Finished strong in the AFL, had surprisingly good season in AA despite a constant struggle for playing time behind d'Arnaud. Given the opportunity he could climb.
41. Myles Jaye (20) RHP - considered a quality sleeper choice when drafted in the 18th round in 2010. Didn't set the league on fire, or disappoint. Jury still out.
40. Jario Labourt (18) LHP - Under the radar free agent last year, pitched fairly well in DSL this year but too early to judge him on stats. Scouts like him.
39. Mitchell Taylor (20) LHP - Excellent walk and K rate for Bluefield, possibly a temperament issue as he was sent home early for disciplinary reasons.
38. Mark Biggs (19) RHP - Eighth round pick in 2011 but he fell due to signability. probably more like a 3rd round talent.
37. Griffin Murphy (19) LHP - Second round pick looked a bit ordinary in first pro season but it's very early yet. Considered a very quality pick.
36. Joe Musgrove (19) RHP - Yet another guy who is perhaps underrated because he wasn't a guy who fell due to being hard to sign. Thus not a lot of publicity after the draft.
35. Kellen Sweeney (20) 3B - Missed almost the whole season due to injury, but if healthy still has a major league ceiling.
34. Dawel Lugo (17?) SS - All these 2011 bonus players have a "?" by their age because I don't have a birthdate on most of them. All these guys were on the list of the top 40 highest regarded Latin prospects on signing day, essentially, sort of the first round talent of the market.
33. Wilmer Becarra (17?) SS/CF - Most reports suggest the shortstop is growing out of the position (he's already 6'4") and will likely begin his pro career in CF.
32. Mike McDade (23) 1B - A mid-season knee injury wreaked what had been a breakout year. his first-half OPS was .880 and the second half saw only a .561 total. We'll have to see if that was an expected regression or it really was the knee.
31. Joel Carreno (25) RHP - Seemed to find a niche as a reliever (in a small sample) which is what I'd expected of him all along. We don't know yet how he'll peak but there might be a very good late inning guy here.
30. David Cooper (25) 1B - none of the scouts express the view that he'll be anything more than a filler guy in the majors, depsite fans drooling over his 2011 stats. Could have a Dan Johnson like career, or might prove his critics wrong.
29. Sean Nolin (22) LHP - lost a bunch of weight over the last off-season and re-invented himself. Jays coaches were blown away by the result. With so many good pitchers in the system, this might be the single most overlooked pitcher the team has.
28. Christian Lopes (19) SS - Seventh round signability steal. This is one of the guys from the 2011 draft I have a strong hunch about, though he might end up at 2B eventually.
27. John Stilson (21) RHP - Health is a big concern here. if he can stay on the mound, might be one of the biggest bargains in the draft. Question is - will the Jays develop him as a starter, or throw him out there as a closer where he might come very fast.
26. Moises Sierra (23) RF - Sierra is a bit of an enigma to me. Tools are there, performance is so far just "not bad." I've concluded that given the team's near-majors depth, Seirra is a prime trade candidate (as is Cooper) and I expect him to be an add on to some trade, this winter or next summer (in the same manner that Yohermin Chavez was in the Morrow deal).

In my opinion, there are easily 40 or more players in the system who would be top 30 prospects on your average MLB list - and there are players as low as #55 on my list that some would make an argument for as being worthy of that praise.


Coming soon: the Top 25!

4 comments:

Phil said...

Meant to say this on the Pitcher list, but you have Carreno far too low. There is simply no way Cooper for instance is a better prospect - he is at best a bench/platoon bat with poor defense, whereas Carreno might be a very good reliever.

I agree with your overall thoughts on relievers in the minors being marginal prospects, but Carreno was a starter all the way through the minors (and a decent one) - I think he is a better MLB prospect than Jenkins or Woch for instance

The Southpaw said...

I'll give you Cooper, but ultimately it's about potential ceiling.

Might give you Seirra too - but the other guys I have him below are guys who, if they reach their ceiling, contribute more than a good reliever.

I think it's reasonable to argue that the odds of Carreno actually being a good major leaguer are safer than those for, say, Wojo just because he's so much closer, but there's always a balance you have to strike on that.

Phil said...

OK obviously this isn't a science, and I would generally rank draft picks and bonus babies lower than you do until they have a decent sample of pro numbers to look at.

The potential ceiling argument is interesting though - rankings are always based on proximity to majors, chances of being a bust and ceiling, but yours seem very weighted towards the latter. In the case of Carreno though, I think he has basically the same ceiling as Wojo and Jenkins - small chance of being a decent starter (its not inconceivable Carreno could challenge for a rotation slot in Spring Training) and a decent shot at being a good reliever. Add in proximity and I would have him around #20

Mylegacy said...

Tammy, really those are 25 guys who you really have to think are much better than any other system's 25 to 50.

What kind of otherworldly system can have that much possible talent that far down in their system - wow - seriously wow.