Hard Charging

For a team so very unfamiliar with long winning streaks (they haven't won more than six in a row since 2008) the current seven gamer must be very satisfying for the Toronto Blue Jays. Not only that, but they've posted a combine score of 41-11 in those games. Indeed, these are heady days for the Jays. Of course, it behooves us to heed Mike Wilner's oft-repeated observation: a team is never as good as it looks at it's best, nor as bad as it looks at it's worst. Still, in may ways this team is preforming now in a manner consistent with pre-season expectations (shaddup Adam!) and they are finally seeing the results.

Since May 5, when the team inexplicably found it's footing, the Blue Jays are 24-15 (a .615 winning %) for the second best record in the AL in that span (one game behind Oakland and WTF is up out there anyhow?) which is a pace which, were it maintained the rest of the season, would result in 91 wins  - that puts you right in the thick of the wild-card race. On the other hand, it's a pace that over a full season would get you 100 wins and certainly it's debatable whether this team is of that caliber. On the third hand, Jose Reyes is imminently ready to return, one assumes Brett Lawrie will be back at some point and step up his game, and Josh Thole is already an upgrade on Henry Blanco (and more besides, if Gibby will give him some of JP's mostly empty at-bats). And the best part is that, apart from Adam Lind, the horses of the offense are not performing at an unsustainable rate.

Here are the teams top six offensive producers over the last 38 games (and the rest have been no great shakes):

1. Cabrera - .312 - .356 - .446 - .802
2. Bautista - .285 - .370 - .487 - .857
3. Encarnacion - .297 - .387 - .561 - .948
4. Lind - .388 - .417 - .642 - 1.059
5. Rasmus - .250 - .320 - .508 - .827
6. DeRosa - .266 - .329 - .484 - .813

Yes, DeRosa is doing more than he's done since his peak years five years ago, but it's not insane and it's in half as many at bats as the others so it's not like the team is being driven by it. Lind is the obvious outlier but going forward, a regression is easily balanced by the presence of Reyes. It's reasonable to assume the offense IS this good.

On the mound, the bullpen has been, frankly, insanely good.

Janssen - 3.55, 1.11
Cecil - 1.40, 0.52
Delenbar - 1.50, 1.11
Loup - 0.90, 0.65
Oliver - 2.25, 1.13
Perez - 0.00, 0.50
Wagner - 0.96, 0.96 (when does THAT ever happen?)

The Starters?

Dickey - 4.53, 1.45
Buehrle - 3.46, 1.19
Johnson - 1.86, 1.14 (only 3 starts)
Rogers - (as Starter)  1.77, 0.98 (4 starts)
Wang - (tiny sample) 3.14, 1.53 (2 starts)
Morrow - 6.14, 1.36  (4 starts)
Jenkins - 3.60, 1.47 (3 starts)
Ortiz - 3.77, 1.60 (3 starts)
Happ - one start, irrelevant
Romero - ditto

Ortiz is probably gone for the duration, Jenkins has been flailing at Buffalo for some unknown reason, so lets ignore them looking forward. Over the last 13 games the staff as a whole has an ERA of 1.98 and they have piled up a 10-3 record in a not unrelated result. obviously that won't last but it's this kind of run that playoff teams occasionally have.

Morrow was reported today to have suffered a setback last night and it seems clear he'll not be back before the ASB. IF he gets and stays healthy, those numbers surely get better and one would think that Rogers would regress some, but the two should balance out (in theory, anything could happen in real time). Buehrle is back consistent with his career numbers, and Dickey while disappointingly inconsistent, is in a range where it's reasonable to assume he is more likely to improve than to regress further. That means that in a rough-and-dirty look ahead, your rotation success largely turns on whether Josh Johnson is finally in his groove or not. This is still a group that can be above average enough to support the offense, particularly as long as the bullpen is so VERY good.

In terms of the playoffs, at the end of play on May 4, the Jays were 8.5 back of the wild card with nine teams to overcome in order to qualify. Now, 38 games later, it's 4.5 and there are "only"four teams in their way. And two of those are Cleveland and the crashing (18-25 since May 5) Royals. Ultimately it comes down to the lesser between the Rangers and A's, and the ultra competitive AL East contenders. On that score, here's the WC standings looking at only those games since the Jays turned it around:

Toronto: 23-15
Baltimore: 23-18 - 1.5 games back
Tampa Bay: 23-19 - 2
New York: 20-20 - 4
Texas: 20-21 - 4.5

Bottom line, as long as they continue to play as they have for the last (almost) quarter-season, they are in a position to be big factors in the WC race and not completely unrealistic to chase down the Red Sox. The odds are still kind of long, but certainly not crazy.

Other notes:

ITEM: Jose Reyes had his first rehab start on Monday night, and while Morrow got bad news, Reyes did not. My guess? The Jays will duck the Tampa turf and let Reyes fly out to Boston with the team to re-join the Jays' lineup on June 27. That will give him 4 games on grass before it's back to Skydome (yes, damnit, Skydome). 

ITEM: JA Happ is throwing bullpens and my guess is he might be 10 days or so away from getting in a game with the D-Jays (they are on the road, but play across the bay in Tampa on June 29 which keeps the big-leaguer off the bus...but whaddoIknow?) If all goes well for him, you might pencil him in for one start before the break. but if Rogers and Wang continue to patch well, the jays might be cautious and hold Happ back until after the break. it will be an interesting decision if neither rogers or Wang give ground how the Jays would handle the sudden surplus. Of the three, only Happ has options.

ITEM: Many fans speculate that when Reyes comes back, and the Jays have another roster-crowding decision to make (Kawasaki though lacking power has been a sparkplug and a fan favorite but he's the logical cut) that the team might opt to finally give Cabrera the much needed DL trip he's been avoiding. It makes sense to DL him after the Boston series and bring him back, presumably rested and healed, after the break.

ITEM: The jays have hired Jamie Evans as a pitching consultant. "Who?" you may be asking. He's the guy who developed the weighted ball routine that rescued Steve Delebar from obscurity and arguably re-energized Brett Cecil's career. Casey Janssen has begun working with him as well and while one should avoid assuming that it's a "magic bullet" one might fondly hope that fading prospects like Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire might decide to give it a go while they still have time.

Let's have a moment of silence for the pessimists who were certain the season was over already  by May 1 ...............................okay, enough of that. go Blue Jays!

The clock ticks...

As of the end of the month of May, the Jays can be fairly confident they have recovered their footing, in terms of the inexplicable awfulness which was April. But it is only the first layer of the foundation necessary to contend and much more needs to be built upon it. They can take comfort in the fact that they ran off a 13-9 stretch (.591, good enough for 95 wins over a full season) with only one start from Happ, none from Johnson, and really only one veteran starter being reasonably consistent in giving his team a good performance.

Logically that, and the hoped for return from injury of several important players should portend better days at some point but..."should"and reality seem to not be on speaking terms in Toronto. One things is for sure: they need to play about .650 ball the rest of the year and that's a VERY tall order.

Who's been carrying them the past (almost) four weeks?

• Mark Buehrle has a 3.12 ERA over his last four starts
• Melky Cabrera had a .979 OPS during that 13-9 stretch.
• Over the same period, Jose Bautista posted a 1.140 OPS
• May 5 (the start of the run) through the end of the month for Lind: 1.044
• Same period for Edwin? .951    

That covers a LOT of failure - but it can't continue  so the failure needs to not continue as well. Turning to the monthly prospect report, let's peruse the farm system.

Hitters:

Gustavo Pierre - he seems like he's been around forever but he's still just 21 and maybe, just maybe, he's coming into his potential a bit. His OPS for may was a robust .930 for Lansing, a team without a ton of productive hitters to complement him.

Nick Bailgod - Not strictly a prospect, but had a heck of a month for Dunedin and deserves a nod.

Andy Burn and Kevin Pillar continue their steady production, but both were off from their April production, the former more than the latter. Truth is, among the players young enough to be considered any sort of prospect, very little has been happening in May that would be considered noteworthy

Pitchers:

Sean Nolin - overlook the distraction of the possibly unwise detour to Toronto, and the kid has nothing to be ashamed of. Take away one bad inning in his last start (technically June 2, but I'm slow, deal with it) in which he gave up five hits - three of them to the DH playing LF - and his AA ERA stands at 1.48 with a better than 3:1 K:BB ratio.

Daniel Norris - seems to have figured something out. Control still needs a lot of work but since April 26, he has a 3.21 ERA with 39 K's in 26.1 IP

Marcus Stroman - ended May with a horrific 1 inning outing (which, one assumes, would have ended quicker if he didn't have a pitch count specification to reach) and he's been fine otherwise. That one outing is a bit inexplicable, but one assumes an outlier of that magnitude has an explanation of which we're not aware.  Still on the semi-fast track.

Joel Carreno - finally got the long overdue promotion to Buffalo after posting an insane 14.5 K/9 rate over 27.1 IP (over against a 2.6 BB/9 rate) in New Hampshire. He gave up a mere 12 hits over that stretch. Let's see how he fares at AAA.

John Stilson - control was a little shakey when he was bumped to AAA shortly after coming off the DL, but I get the impression he could push his way into the majors by September unless the team decides to save an option and send him to the AFL. Always assuming he stays healthy of course.

 Ajay Meyer - not routinely discussed as a"prospect, he is routinely kicking opposition-asses the closer in Dunedin while Danny Barnes struggles to stay off the DL. Dude was a non-drafted free agent, and at 25 he's way too old for the level, but he also sports at 12:1 K:BB ratio so they need to challenge him with two promotions this season unless they already know he can't handle it.


HM: Not"prospects" but let's not forget Josh Thole, who has to be chafing as he watches Henry Blanco be a black hole in Toronto while he (Thole) posts a .900+ OPS in Buffalo, and forever-hoped-for Dustin McGowan, who's had two missteps since moving up to Buffalo (in 7 outings) and seems to be working on a set schedule. The Jays have until June 12 to recall him.

also, on the farm side, one must sadly note for the record that Rickey Romero still hasn't gotten his head straight. There may be nothing sadder than watching a guy simply "lose it" despite no physical or age related source. It's no way for a career to end and I hope, on that basis alone, that Romero defies history and finds the handle.

Upcoming on Thursday, the 2013 draft which I've really had a hard time getting a  handle on. The guy I really want, and the guy we cold have had if we'd had the foresight to give the money we gave to DJ Thon to him instead, is Kris Bryant but there's NO WAY he falls to 10. There are a handful of other guys, any of whom I'd be content with at that spot (Fraizer, Medows, etc) but the other guy who both intrigues me and terrifies me is Austin Wilson. I drool over his ceiling, but am terrified of his potential to be an absolute bust. It will take me some time to digest the results before I'm willing to weigh in.