I'm gonna make a small modification this year on this one. The depth at second base just seems awfully light to dedicate a whole weekly post to that position. Plus, perhaps more importantly, the excess shortstop depth is the pool from which potential future second basemen usually are drawn.
So first, the Second Basemen:
1. John Tolisano (22) - A second round choice in the (then) vaunted mega-class of 2007, Tolisano was allowed to repeat Hi-A dunedin this season with, as usual for him, mixed results. Tolisano progressed well month over month through the first half of the season, but an injury in early July ended his season just when he seemed to have accumulated significant momentum (albeit he had only 3 hits in his last 25 AB). In June he had an .881 OPS which is even more noticeable given the difficulty of the league for hitters. On the whole season, he improved his OBP and SLG over his 2009 rates, but only marginally so. On the other hand, his K rate went way up. Also, when the D-Jays' infield got overcrowded, Tolisano found himself spending some time in the OF as well as at 3B. He probably has to be challeneged with AA next season and it will be a key season for him to establish that he still has some promise.
2. Scott Campbell (26) - It tells you something about the depth of natural second basemen in the system that a guy who missed the whole season with injury (after having a variety of less serious injuries the year before) is arguably the #2 prospect at the position. Campbell is now two seasons removed from his breakout season and he's coming off (hopefully) a serious hip injury. I can't find any details about the extensiveness of the injury but hip injuries have killed careers so it's a matter of concern. But IF HEALTHY he still has the chance to reclaim the hitting ability he showed in 2008. Of course, for a man who was already defensively challeneged, a hip injury can't be helpful.
3. Ryan Schimpf (23) - the 2009 fifth rounder was just OK at Lansing, he got a late season taste of Dunedin and didn't adjust well. He has pretty good speed and is said to be "gritty" but that's more likely to make him a minor league hometown favorite than a potential major leaguer.
4. Brandon Mims (18) - A ninth round pick in 2010, the switch-hitting Mims got all of 2 professional at bats. Mims is said to be an outstanding defender, less is know by us amateurs about his hitting ability. He was reported to be a "signability" draft so expectations should be tempered.
5. Andy Fermin (21) - Let's be realistic here - Fermin (son of Felix) was a 32nd round pick in 2010, the odds that he even reaches the high minors, let alone the majors, are long against him. But he pounded GCL pitching (for only seven games) until he forced a promotion to Auburn where he held onto a pretty good OBP. His ranking is, again, a function of lack of depth, not promise.
Also note that some consider Brad Emaus (whom I will cover next week in the Third Base list) to be a potential second baseman and if he were ranked, he'd be an easy #1 on this list.
And the Shortstops . . .
1. Adeiny Hechavarria (22) - The Cuban bonus baby will turn 22 in mid-April 2011, and that is an age not uncommon in Hi-A ball and characteristic of the better AA prospects. Despite being somewhat raw, his natural tools make him an easy choice for one of the Blue Jays' very best prospects. After spending six forgettable weeks of 2010 in Dunedin, he was promoted to AA where he logged just over two months of play with noticeably better results. The Jays believed, rightly it seems, that Hechavarria would progress better under the management of Hispanic manager Luis Rivera. While he did make progress, the Jays can afford, with the acquisition in July of Yunel Escobar, to give the younger Cuban plenty of time. It won't hurt at all for him to return to AA to start the season and let his development dictate the promotion schedule. however, if you see the Jays promote Rivera to the manager's position in Las Vegas (which is open) then it's quite possible Adeiny will follow him there in the spring.
2. DJ Thon (19) - No, I don't know if anyone else calls hm DJ but hey, it's my blog and I can try to start a trend if I want. His given name is "Dicke Joe" and that's pretty much an open invitation. One assumes you can't be the sort of Jays fan who reads this site and not know he's the son of longtime Astros SS Dicke Thon and almost invariably, when a scout is asked about his ceiling the scout replies "pretty much like his dad, before the beaning." That is a solid, productive, but no0t star-level major league shortstop - probably something a lot like what we got from Marco Scutaro in 2009. Thon is said to be raw, though, and the Jays can afford to take their time with him. you shouldn't be surprised to see him spend five full seasons in the minors.
3. Gustavo Pierre (19) - Only six weeks younger than Thon, the bonus-baby Dominican has 424 professional at bats, but is still very much a raw project. Pierre draws raves for his tools and projectability (though suggestions he might grow into third base are not rare) but the statistical results are not impressive yet. He's still very much a person to be judged on the trained eye of scouts rather than results. Despite ordinary results at Auburn, there's a pretty decent chance that the Jays advance him to Lansing to start the season, though beyond that his movement will be earned. Like Thon, he's still a long way away.
4. Justin Jackson (22) - another once-anticipated member of the class of 2007, Jackson was my personal favorite from that class and I've taken longer to lose my enthusiasm for him than almost anyone, but he's not helping me. When the Jays activated Hechavarria, the crowding in the infield at Dunedin eventually resulted in Jackson being bumped back to Lansing which, to be fair, was the level a player his age probably should have been playing at. The former minor league team consistently over-promoted Jackson and while he has flaws of his own, they may have ruined him.
Consider that Jackson got a mere 42 professional games (in which he hit .187) before he was pushed to Lansing. In Lansing he hit .238 and was promoted to Dunedin in 2009 anyway. Though it was an injury marred year, there was little chance that even a healthy Jackson was going to do well there. A smarter plan might have been to return Jackson to the GCL in 2008 and let him EARN a promotion - to AUBURN. Let him spend all of 2008 at Auburn and then send him to Lansing in 2009 and don't promote him again until he has proven he's ready - spending 2 years in Lansing isn't the end of any real prospects career. Thus handled, Jackson would have reached Dunedin for the first time in 2010 at best, and would have been far more ready for it. At this point, Jackson stands on the cusp of what is pretty much a make-or-break season in which he has to demonstrate he can correct the flaws in his offensive game.
Also, watch Ryan Goins. While buried among ore talented guys at short, if I'd listed him at 2B he would have looked a lot better.
Saturday, 9 October 2010
Monday, 4 October 2010
Rosterbation - Part the First
There is so very much to say here that I'll have to fight hard against the temptation to make a ginormous post out of this. instead I hope to sort it out into a series of posts. also, I'll avoid wasting precious words on introductory fluff.
As we look ahead at the oncoming winter, and the potential for improving this roster, there is a lot to consider.
First, there's the goal - ideally you want to add about 10 wins without sacrificing the future in order to be in the thick of the playoff race. You have to ask yourself, how many of those wins can I get out of the current roster? Hill and Lind will likely rebound, Bautista will obviously slack off some, there will be somewhat of a downgrade at catcher and there might be a balancing upgrade at shorstop. Who's going to be on the roster, how do the plug into the lineup, etc.
Second, where will the improvements from outside the organization come in? AA said today many things but among them was a fairly strong implication that trades were his prefered method, as opposed to free agency. However, trades are notoriously hard to forcast. What we can do is look first at the free agent options, then compare them to what we have in hand, and rule out those (almost all of them) who simply don't represent a substantial upgrade. Then you can look around the league, ruling out players who are obviously not available, and get a sense of which potentially available players match up with the team's needs. The FA evaluation is pretty easy, the trade market analysis is for another day.
Third, while the team is not limited in funds, Alex will no doubt adheres to what he feels is a proper evaluation for each player. It's not enough that, for instance, Edwin Encarnacion have a potential role on the 2011 squad, it's also whether or not his potential contribution justifies the marginal cost over the next best option for that place on the roster.
Finally, there's roster construction. That is, there are roles to be played in the batting order and you have to have puzzle pieces that fit together into a productive offense. One need look no further than the reality of how lack of on-base skills diluted the effect of all the slugging on the 2010 squad in terms of scoring runs. One needs a balanced team.
Looking then, at the hitting positions, let's be clear about a few things: due to obvious talent and/or contract issues, the following players WILL be in the Jays 2011 starting lineup (barring injury): Escobar, Snider, Wells, Lind, Hill, Bautista (with the small but not completely non-existent chance Bautista is dealt). In addition, one other position (catcher) will be filled in a relatively defined manner - so there are essentially two slots in the starting lineup which are "in play" and at least one of those needs to be a lead-off type hitter.
As we examine how the pieces go together, we need to keep in mind that the key offensive improvement that the team is (rightly) seeking is a better on-base percentage.
Catcher
This is pretty simple, either JP Arencibia will be the starter, with a back-up (who may or may not be Jose Molina) or John Buck will be retained and Arencibia will be "worked in." The latter seems unlikely because Buck would be a fool not to persue a multi-year deal, and the Jays would be foolish to give him one UNLESS they think there's a productive trade to be made by shipping Arencibia. In any case, none of these players provide any prospect of a high OB number, nor do any potential free agents. JPA, at best, will be just what Buck was in 2010. That's the ceiling of what can be expected here, and it's reasonable to suspect he won't do that in his first year so there's likely to be a net loss in WAR from this position.
Shortstop
Will be Yunel Escobar. Period. the most obvious call on the squad. He's got decent OB skills, thugh the results were down in 2010. His career mark, even with the down year, is .364 and he's been as high as .385 so he's an ideal #2 and not a bad choice at all for lead-off (but if he leads off then one of the two variables would need to be a good #2).
Center field
Vernon Wells. Say what you want about his immovable contract, he was also the most offensively productive CF in the AL in 2010 as well. His OBP was .331 which is right in line with his career mark. that's not awful, it's not great, and it's not gonna change much.
Everything else is a mix & match dance of movable parts.
Second Base
Aaron Hill, unless he moves to 3B. One of the nuggets we got from Anthopoulos today was that Hill had said he'd move if it made team building easier and that is HUGE in terms of flexibility. if Hill were to stick to second, then (i'll go into depth on this in a sec) Bautista likely fits best at 3B and your potential 1/2 hitter is very likely gonna have to be an outfielder. and two outfield spots are spoken for. Take for example, the potential trade availability of Kelly Johnson. Johnson had a .370 OBP in his bounce-back 2010 year. He has decent speed and good power. Escobar leading off and Johnson in the 2-hole is a good start. while it is true that Johnson can play left, it's still a good illustration of how having 2B in play helps. Rickie Weeks is another name to consider.
Third Base
If Hill stays at 2B, then the likelihood that Jose Bautista plays third for the 2011 Jays increases greatly. Edwin Encarnacion is still in house (and don't be TOO quick to assume he gets non-tendered) but Alex admitted today his defense was still disappointing (albeit improved) and it would be a less-than-great winter if EE wasn't pushed out of that role before spring. He does, however, factor into the decisions at 1B and DH.
The reason Bautista slots at 3B despite having a lot of value in RF is because of the dearth of potential upgrades at 3B. The only Free Agent who is worth considering is Adrian Beltre, and you have to note that the last time he had a great offensive season was in a previous contract year. The potential for regression there is strong. if you look at the top performers at 3B by OPS, no one who's higher than .340 (except Beltre) is remotely available.
That means if you import a 3B, it's going to come down to a ready-prospect (I'm not aware that any exists) or a reclamation project (site-favorite Alex Gordon leaps instantly to mind). I'd LOVE to see the Jays throw together a package for Gordon and former Jay-prospect Tim Collins, but even I have to admit that it's a lot bigger gamble than going after Johnson.
Right Field
You'd think this was a prime slot for an import, but unless the Jays want to throw big money at Jayson Werth (and they don't) it's difficult to see how they do better here than either Bautista or Travis Snider. Despite the opinion of the outgoing manager, the more respected defensive metrics liked Snider this year. While most of his innings came in left, it's not an insane proposition to trust him with RF for a few years. if Bautista is at 3B, snider will almost certainly be in RF unless the Jays can pull of a surprise trade.
Left Field
If the chips fall such that Hill is at 3B, and Bautista is in RF, this will be Snider. if they fall the other way, then LF is very much in play. it might be Adam Lind, though the presumption is he'll either be at 1B or DH, but more likely it will be that 1/2 hitter we need (if it's not a second baseman). It could still be Fred Lewis, though the Jays don't like his defense and his mouth might punch his ticket out of town.
If you look at free agency, there's really only one guy you covet here and that's Carl Crawford. and while no one could object to adding Crawford to the lineup, the odds that the Jays will go to war with Boston and LA to land him SEEM to be long. laying Crawford aside, there's no FA (without an option) that obviously fits the bill here. If you turn your eyes to potential trades, there are over 30 players (albeit many of them unavailable) among outfielders who have an OPS of at least .340 - a daunting list.
If you cull that list by looking for guys with top of the order speed, those who are not having aberrational seasons, those who are actually potentially available, and those who are controllable for a few years (AA is not gonna give up prospects for a guy he's going to lose in a year or two) you can narrow that down a good bit. One guy who jumps out is Coco Crisp. The A's hold an option on him and one assumes it will be picked up, given that he stole 32 bases in only 75 games. But his best OBP numbers were only ever in the low .340's so you are giving up something there. Still, if the option is declined he's worth a look.
A next revision of that first list would be players who had a noticeably better OBP than Fred Lewis, stole more, had better slugging, and better defense. Now we're down to a bare handful of guys and none of them any more inspiring than Crisp. of course, here again you can gamble on a project, the most notable potential being found in BJ Upton, but the odds of TB trading him just as they are losing Crawford seem small.
First Base
Presumably Adam Lind, assuming the jays saw enough rough potential to figure that a full Spring Training at first will make him a serviceable major league first baseman. there'salso the option of bringing back Lyle Overbay. Among free agent 1B, the only guys with solid potential to be an upgrade here are Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman (if you think 2010 was a fluke). No one else on the list is a lock to out-hit Overbay. And neither guy is all that young at 35. There's also Aubry Huff at 34, but he's been up and down over his career as much as Vernon Wells and that makes for a questionable investment. There is, of course, Adam Dunn who sucks at 1B and has a stubborn refusal to DH to count against him, and he won't be cheap. The biggest potential trade target is Prince Fielder but there's the whole question of whether you can sign him, being a Boras client he's almost certain to demand a fantastic sum to skip the Free Agent market.
In short, there are too many options here to reasonably sort through, but each of them individually seem to be unlikely moves for various reasons. That observation made, there are more options for an upgrade here that there are anywhere else.
Designated Hitter
Could be Lind, could be Lewis, but if you had to put together a starting line-up from in-house options right now, this is probably Edwin Encarnacion. don't laugh too fast, EE's totals pro-rate to 32 homers and almost 80 RBI and that in a season with at least one stretch bad enough to get him DFAed. Encarnacion is in what should be his prime, posted his best career slugging percentage, and had an OBP over .350 in his first two full major league seasons. If he could recapture that ability to make contact, he'd give the Jays about the same value Vlad Guerrero gave Texas this year. Whether or not he does that, if the Jays add a middle-of-the-order stick this winter, that addition should be obviously better than what EE can do because he's the one who will lose his job.
To recap, here's the lineup you'd have to make, IMO, with the available players under control:
C - Arencibia
1B - Lind
2B - Hill
SS - Escobar
3B - Bautista
LF - Lewis
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
DH - Encarnacion
If you add a top of the order guy, Lewis loses out, if you add a middle of the order guy, EE loses out - those are the guys who set the minimum standard a new acquisition has to beat. there are enough movable parts to ensure everyone else here (caveat re catching noted) will be in the line-up next spring barring a shocking trade.
while the one thing I have learned in the past year is to not even TRY to anticipate what Anthopoulos will actually do, here are some obvious potential plays:
1. Go after Kelly Johnson or Ricke Weeks and move Hill and the subsequent dominoes fall.
2. go after Alex Gordon (and try to snag Collins but that's just a fetish of mine) on a "buy-low" gamble and see if you can straighten him out his bat (and glove).
3. add a slugging 1B DH, even if it's expensive, if you believe that player can be productive for 3-5 years. Adam Dunn perhaps being the best free agent bet there if you can live with his glove at 1B or sell him on DHing. Another factorIi haven't yet mentioned here is position changes, such as going after Dan Uggla and moving him to 1B.
That's not to dismiss several other guys who have been mentioned as possibly available (I know lots of folks like to lust after Matt Kemp, for instance) but that list, too, is for a future post. Bottom line, the job on offense is to asses what you have in Encarnacion and Lewis, and then figure out if you can do better than either or both.
Final thought - don't be totally shocked by the idea that there is considerable additional WAR in the lineup listed above. while Bautista will go down for sure and JPA almost certainly won't immediately replicate buck, Hill Escobar, and Lind will certainly rebound, Snider stands to take a potentially big leap forward, and Lewis and EE would add value just by playing every day, and Edwin at least has the potential to add value via OBP. Also, if EE is the everyday DH you'll not suffer the negative WAR he accumulated at 3B. I intend a future post to look into this calculation in more depth but my hunch is you could pick up at lest a few of those 10 wins right there.
As we look ahead at the oncoming winter, and the potential for improving this roster, there is a lot to consider.
First, there's the goal - ideally you want to add about 10 wins without sacrificing the future in order to be in the thick of the playoff race. You have to ask yourself, how many of those wins can I get out of the current roster? Hill and Lind will likely rebound, Bautista will obviously slack off some, there will be somewhat of a downgrade at catcher and there might be a balancing upgrade at shorstop. Who's going to be on the roster, how do the plug into the lineup, etc.
Second, where will the improvements from outside the organization come in? AA said today many things but among them was a fairly strong implication that trades were his prefered method, as opposed to free agency. However, trades are notoriously hard to forcast. What we can do is look first at the free agent options, then compare them to what we have in hand, and rule out those (almost all of them) who simply don't represent a substantial upgrade. Then you can look around the league, ruling out players who are obviously not available, and get a sense of which potentially available players match up with the team's needs. The FA evaluation is pretty easy, the trade market analysis is for another day.
Third, while the team is not limited in funds, Alex will no doubt adheres to what he feels is a proper evaluation for each player. It's not enough that, for instance, Edwin Encarnacion have a potential role on the 2011 squad, it's also whether or not his potential contribution justifies the marginal cost over the next best option for that place on the roster.
Finally, there's roster construction. That is, there are roles to be played in the batting order and you have to have puzzle pieces that fit together into a productive offense. One need look no further than the reality of how lack of on-base skills diluted the effect of all the slugging on the 2010 squad in terms of scoring runs. One needs a balanced team.
Looking then, at the hitting positions, let's be clear about a few things: due to obvious talent and/or contract issues, the following players WILL be in the Jays 2011 starting lineup (barring injury): Escobar, Snider, Wells, Lind, Hill, Bautista (with the small but not completely non-existent chance Bautista is dealt). In addition, one other position (catcher) will be filled in a relatively defined manner - so there are essentially two slots in the starting lineup which are "in play" and at least one of those needs to be a lead-off type hitter.
As we examine how the pieces go together, we need to keep in mind that the key offensive improvement that the team is (rightly) seeking is a better on-base percentage.
Catcher
This is pretty simple, either JP Arencibia will be the starter, with a back-up (who may or may not be Jose Molina) or John Buck will be retained and Arencibia will be "worked in." The latter seems unlikely because Buck would be a fool not to persue a multi-year deal, and the Jays would be foolish to give him one UNLESS they think there's a productive trade to be made by shipping Arencibia. In any case, none of these players provide any prospect of a high OB number, nor do any potential free agents. JPA, at best, will be just what Buck was in 2010. That's the ceiling of what can be expected here, and it's reasonable to suspect he won't do that in his first year so there's likely to be a net loss in WAR from this position.
Shortstop
Will be Yunel Escobar. Period. the most obvious call on the squad. He's got decent OB skills, thugh the results were down in 2010. His career mark, even with the down year, is .364 and he's been as high as .385 so he's an ideal #2 and not a bad choice at all for lead-off (but if he leads off then one of the two variables would need to be a good #2).
Center field
Vernon Wells. Say what you want about his immovable contract, he was also the most offensively productive CF in the AL in 2010 as well. His OBP was .331 which is right in line with his career mark. that's not awful, it's not great, and it's not gonna change much.
Everything else is a mix & match dance of movable parts.
Second Base
Aaron Hill, unless he moves to 3B. One of the nuggets we got from Anthopoulos today was that Hill had said he'd move if it made team building easier and that is HUGE in terms of flexibility. if Hill were to stick to second, then (i'll go into depth on this in a sec) Bautista likely fits best at 3B and your potential 1/2 hitter is very likely gonna have to be an outfielder. and two outfield spots are spoken for. Take for example, the potential trade availability of Kelly Johnson. Johnson had a .370 OBP in his bounce-back 2010 year. He has decent speed and good power. Escobar leading off and Johnson in the 2-hole is a good start. while it is true that Johnson can play left, it's still a good illustration of how having 2B in play helps. Rickie Weeks is another name to consider.
Third Base
If Hill stays at 2B, then the likelihood that Jose Bautista plays third for the 2011 Jays increases greatly. Edwin Encarnacion is still in house (and don't be TOO quick to assume he gets non-tendered) but Alex admitted today his defense was still disappointing (albeit improved) and it would be a less-than-great winter if EE wasn't pushed out of that role before spring. He does, however, factor into the decisions at 1B and DH.
The reason Bautista slots at 3B despite having a lot of value in RF is because of the dearth of potential upgrades at 3B. The only Free Agent who is worth considering is Adrian Beltre, and you have to note that the last time he had a great offensive season was in a previous contract year. The potential for regression there is strong. if you look at the top performers at 3B by OPS, no one who's higher than .340 (except Beltre) is remotely available.
That means if you import a 3B, it's going to come down to a ready-prospect (I'm not aware that any exists) or a reclamation project (site-favorite Alex Gordon leaps instantly to mind). I'd LOVE to see the Jays throw together a package for Gordon and former Jay-prospect Tim Collins, but even I have to admit that it's a lot bigger gamble than going after Johnson.
Right Field
You'd think this was a prime slot for an import, but unless the Jays want to throw big money at Jayson Werth (and they don't) it's difficult to see how they do better here than either Bautista or Travis Snider. Despite the opinion of the outgoing manager, the more respected defensive metrics liked Snider this year. While most of his innings came in left, it's not an insane proposition to trust him with RF for a few years. if Bautista is at 3B, snider will almost certainly be in RF unless the Jays can pull of a surprise trade.
Left Field
If the chips fall such that Hill is at 3B, and Bautista is in RF, this will be Snider. if they fall the other way, then LF is very much in play. it might be Adam Lind, though the presumption is he'll either be at 1B or DH, but more likely it will be that 1/2 hitter we need (if it's not a second baseman). It could still be Fred Lewis, though the Jays don't like his defense and his mouth might punch his ticket out of town.
If you look at free agency, there's really only one guy you covet here and that's Carl Crawford. and while no one could object to adding Crawford to the lineup, the odds that the Jays will go to war with Boston and LA to land him SEEM to be long. laying Crawford aside, there's no FA (without an option) that obviously fits the bill here. If you turn your eyes to potential trades, there are over 30 players (albeit many of them unavailable) among outfielders who have an OPS of at least .340 - a daunting list.
If you cull that list by looking for guys with top of the order speed, those who are not having aberrational seasons, those who are actually potentially available, and those who are controllable for a few years (AA is not gonna give up prospects for a guy he's going to lose in a year or two) you can narrow that down a good bit. One guy who jumps out is Coco Crisp. The A's hold an option on him and one assumes it will be picked up, given that he stole 32 bases in only 75 games. But his best OBP numbers were only ever in the low .340's so you are giving up something there. Still, if the option is declined he's worth a look.
A next revision of that first list would be players who had a noticeably better OBP than Fred Lewis, stole more, had better slugging, and better defense. Now we're down to a bare handful of guys and none of them any more inspiring than Crisp. of course, here again you can gamble on a project, the most notable potential being found in BJ Upton, but the odds of TB trading him just as they are losing Crawford seem small.
First Base
Presumably Adam Lind, assuming the jays saw enough rough potential to figure that a full Spring Training at first will make him a serviceable major league first baseman. there'salso the option of bringing back Lyle Overbay. Among free agent 1B, the only guys with solid potential to be an upgrade here are Paul Konerko and Lance Berkman (if you think 2010 was a fluke). No one else on the list is a lock to out-hit Overbay. And neither guy is all that young at 35. There's also Aubry Huff at 34, but he's been up and down over his career as much as Vernon Wells and that makes for a questionable investment. There is, of course, Adam Dunn who sucks at 1B and has a stubborn refusal to DH to count against him, and he won't be cheap. The biggest potential trade target is Prince Fielder but there's the whole question of whether you can sign him, being a Boras client he's almost certain to demand a fantastic sum to skip the Free Agent market.
In short, there are too many options here to reasonably sort through, but each of them individually seem to be unlikely moves for various reasons. That observation made, there are more options for an upgrade here that there are anywhere else.
Designated Hitter
Could be Lind, could be Lewis, but if you had to put together a starting line-up from in-house options right now, this is probably Edwin Encarnacion. don't laugh too fast, EE's totals pro-rate to 32 homers and almost 80 RBI and that in a season with at least one stretch bad enough to get him DFAed. Encarnacion is in what should be his prime, posted his best career slugging percentage, and had an OBP over .350 in his first two full major league seasons. If he could recapture that ability to make contact, he'd give the Jays about the same value Vlad Guerrero gave Texas this year. Whether or not he does that, if the Jays add a middle-of-the-order stick this winter, that addition should be obviously better than what EE can do because he's the one who will lose his job.
To recap, here's the lineup you'd have to make, IMO, with the available players under control:
C - Arencibia
1B - Lind
2B - Hill
SS - Escobar
3B - Bautista
LF - Lewis
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
DH - Encarnacion
If you add a top of the order guy, Lewis loses out, if you add a middle of the order guy, EE loses out - those are the guys who set the minimum standard a new acquisition has to beat. there are enough movable parts to ensure everyone else here (caveat re catching noted) will be in the line-up next spring barring a shocking trade.
while the one thing I have learned in the past year is to not even TRY to anticipate what Anthopoulos will actually do, here are some obvious potential plays:
1. Go after Kelly Johnson or Ricke Weeks and move Hill and the subsequent dominoes fall.
2. go after Alex Gordon (and try to snag Collins but that's just a fetish of mine) on a "buy-low" gamble and see if you can straighten him out his bat (and glove).
3. add a slugging 1B DH, even if it's expensive, if you believe that player can be productive for 3-5 years. Adam Dunn perhaps being the best free agent bet there if you can live with his glove at 1B or sell him on DHing. Another factorIi haven't yet mentioned here is position changes, such as going after Dan Uggla and moving him to 1B.
That's not to dismiss several other guys who have been mentioned as possibly available (I know lots of folks like to lust after Matt Kemp, for instance) but that list, too, is for a future post. Bottom line, the job on offense is to asses what you have in Encarnacion and Lewis, and then figure out if you can do better than either or both.
Final thought - don't be totally shocked by the idea that there is considerable additional WAR in the lineup listed above. while Bautista will go down for sure and JPA almost certainly won't immediately replicate buck, Hill Escobar, and Lind will certainly rebound, Snider stands to take a potentially big leap forward, and Lewis and EE would add value just by playing every day, and Edwin at least has the potential to add value via OBP. Also, if EE is the everyday DH you'll not suffer the negative WAR he accumulated at 3B. I intend a future post to look into this calculation in more depth but my hunch is you could pick up at lest a few of those 10 wins right there.
Saturday, 2 October 2010
2010 Positional Review: First Base
One game to go in the major league season, the Jays have (finally) justified my pre-season prediction (I said 83 wins) and I've calmed a bit since ranting over Cito (again) last night, so lets get to it:
1. David Cooper (24) - On July 1, one could have made a very good case for just closing the Cooper file and stamping the outside "Bust" and moving on. Sure, it would have been too early given that, at that point, he only had a little over 2 seasons worth of at-bats, but all of those at bats which had occurred above A-ball were most uninspiring. His slash lines, in 751 AA at bats was a most modest .242/.335/.390/.725 with no hint of better work to come. His impressive half season in 2008 noted but perhaps dismissed as an aberration.
Since then, things have changed. In 220 at bats since that mid-season date, those slash lines are .309/.387/.505/.892 and while one has to be aware of sample size considerations, if Cooper has made some sort of mechanical adjustment to produce this result then there's cause for optimism in those numbers. Watch for stories over the winter that might explain the sudden turnaround, and perhaps more telling, watch whether his spring training work convinces the Jays he's ready for AAA.
2. Michael McDade (21) - The 6'1', 260 pound McDade, who turns 22 early in May, was the most prolific young slugger in the FSL. He led the circuit in homers and was first in slugging among players not considered too old for the league. There is, however, work still to do. McDade struck out 141 times in 128 games, and put up 5.2 K's per walk. Also, his season was the inverse of Cooper's. A massive May propeled him to an impressive first half (.869 OPS) but after the break, his OPS was a much more modest .676 (albeit in a league where offensive expectations are diminished) and it's not unreasonable to ask if, at his weight, he didn't wear down over the course of the season.
3. K.C. Hobson (20) - Butch Hobson's son was steady in the GCL this year, and a bit slow on the transition to low-A Lansing (though he finished well) but he's well regarded. He was considered a bit of a steal with the 6th round pick in 2009, and he made Baseball America's GCL Top 20 Prospects List (along with three of his teammates) at #14. In the shallow pool of Blue Jays 1B prospects, that's enough to rank him third on this list, and he might be a breakout candidate for 2011.
4. Lance Durham (23) - while old for the level at 22, Leon "Bull" Durham's son led the Auburn club in OPS, and he was one of the top dozen or so hitters in the circuit. While he has some pop and struck out more than once a game, it's worth noting that his OBP was .371, over 110 points higher than his BA. the way the distribution of 1B fall in the system next year (Cooper to AAA perhaps, McDade to AA, and Hobson back to Lansing) the obvious opportunity is there for the Jays to test Durham by skipping him up to Dunedin. If they do, we'll presumably know a lot more about what his skills are this time next year.
5. Balbino Fuenmayor (21) - no real reason to consider the former bonus baby a prospect at this point. He's never gotten the hitting skills polished enough to succeed and even though he's still young, he seldom even shows intriguing flashes anymore. I only mention him because of the press he got when signing, and because I hate for any list to not have at least five names.
There are no "others to watch" among actual 1B in the Jays' system (if there were, Balbino wouldn't be at #5) but you might be aware that excess players from other positions might end up at 1B. Adam Loewen is b all reports a fine OF but if crowding forces him to a new position, you gotta like a 6'5" target to throw to at 1B. If Keven Aherns late season resurgence is real, you might see other 3B in the system including Shawn Bowman and Mark Sobolewski eventually migrate across the diamond, but that's some time off yet.
I suppose, given his underwhelming defensive reports, one ought mention Eric Thames in this conversation as well. Finally, extra catchers who have offensive upside might end up playing 1B. Jon Talley was often found at DH so he's a candidate (although he didn't light up the scoreboard either) and versatile Sean Ochinko has a pretty good chance.
1. David Cooper (24) - On July 1, one could have made a very good case for just closing the Cooper file and stamping the outside "Bust" and moving on. Sure, it would have been too early given that, at that point, he only had a little over 2 seasons worth of at-bats, but all of those at bats which had occurred above A-ball were most uninspiring. His slash lines, in 751 AA at bats was a most modest .242/.335/.390/.725 with no hint of better work to come. His impressive half season in 2008 noted but perhaps dismissed as an aberration.
Since then, things have changed. In 220 at bats since that mid-season date, those slash lines are .309/.387/.505/.892 and while one has to be aware of sample size considerations, if Cooper has made some sort of mechanical adjustment to produce this result then there's cause for optimism in those numbers. Watch for stories over the winter that might explain the sudden turnaround, and perhaps more telling, watch whether his spring training work convinces the Jays he's ready for AAA.
2. Michael McDade (21) - The 6'1', 260 pound McDade, who turns 22 early in May, was the most prolific young slugger in the FSL. He led the circuit in homers and was first in slugging among players not considered too old for the league. There is, however, work still to do. McDade struck out 141 times in 128 games, and put up 5.2 K's per walk. Also, his season was the inverse of Cooper's. A massive May propeled him to an impressive first half (.869 OPS) but after the break, his OPS was a much more modest .676 (albeit in a league where offensive expectations are diminished) and it's not unreasonable to ask if, at his weight, he didn't wear down over the course of the season.
3. K.C. Hobson (20) - Butch Hobson's son was steady in the GCL this year, and a bit slow on the transition to low-A Lansing (though he finished well) but he's well regarded. He was considered a bit of a steal with the 6th round pick in 2009, and he made Baseball America's GCL Top 20 Prospects List (along with three of his teammates) at #14. In the shallow pool of Blue Jays 1B prospects, that's enough to rank him third on this list, and he might be a breakout candidate for 2011.
4. Lance Durham (23) - while old for the level at 22, Leon "Bull" Durham's son led the Auburn club in OPS, and he was one of the top dozen or so hitters in the circuit. While he has some pop and struck out more than once a game, it's worth noting that his OBP was .371, over 110 points higher than his BA. the way the distribution of 1B fall in the system next year (Cooper to AAA perhaps, McDade to AA, and Hobson back to Lansing) the obvious opportunity is there for the Jays to test Durham by skipping him up to Dunedin. If they do, we'll presumably know a lot more about what his skills are this time next year.
5. Balbino Fuenmayor (21) - no real reason to consider the former bonus baby a prospect at this point. He's never gotten the hitting skills polished enough to succeed and even though he's still young, he seldom even shows intriguing flashes anymore. I only mention him because of the press he got when signing, and because I hate for any list to not have at least five names.
There are no "others to watch" among actual 1B in the Jays' system (if there were, Balbino wouldn't be at #5) but you might be aware that excess players from other positions might end up at 1B. Adam Loewen is b all reports a fine OF but if crowding forces him to a new position, you gotta like a 6'5" target to throw to at 1B. If Keven Aherns late season resurgence is real, you might see other 3B in the system including Shawn Bowman and Mark Sobolewski eventually migrate across the diamond, but that's some time off yet.
I suppose, given his underwhelming defensive reports, one ought mention Eric Thames in this conversation as well. Finally, extra catchers who have offensive upside might end up playing 1B. Jon Talley was often found at DH so he's a candidate (although he didn't light up the scoreboard either) and versatile Sean Ochinko has a pretty good chance.
Futile Rant #...whatever
I KNOW I shouldn't bother. I KNOW it's not only beating a dead horse, and tilting at windmills, and concerns the opinion of a man who's two games from being out the door but STILL, I can't help it. This stuff just pisses me the hell off.
The great and wise Cito took it upon himself to comment on the 2011 bullpen situation as recorded by Jordan Bastian here.
Gaston says, in the article, that the Jays are in real need of signing veterans for next year's pen because they don't have anyone but "kids" and the "kids" can't be asked to pitch under the pressure of the AL East. Of all the undiluted BS which he's caressed us with this year, this might take the cake.
One of the things he bemoans is that the young starters "go out there and pitch their heart out" - by what logic do we decide that the AL East is not too hard for a 22 or 23 year old Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil or, hell, even a Jesse Litsch for 6 or 7 innings. BUT it's far too hard for 1 inning of work for a 27 year old Josh Roenicke, a 28 year old David Purcey, or a 29 year old Jesse Carlson?
These are KIDS?
(Casey Janssen and Taylor Buchholz are both 28 as well, and that's not even bringing up Shawn Camp)
Now, if you want to argue that these guys don't have the TALENT to pitch in this division, fine - but that has fuck-all to do with their age. Two years ago, then 27 year old Jesse Carlson, with no major league experience, absolutely destroyed the AL East. So did 25 year old Brandon League. In 2007, then 25 year old Casey Janssen was virtually untouchable. and 25 year old Jeremy Accrdo stepped out of obscurity and was one of the best closers in the league.
Cito said, of the closer job "If he's (Gregg) not here, we don't have one. Do you see one? I don't see one."
Who saw Accardo as the 2007 closer in September 2006? Even if we'd known Ryan couldn't answer the bell. Nobody.
Do I KNOW that Purcey or Roenicke or, heck, even Buchholz, will have the composure to close in 2011? Hell know. But I know from what the scouts say that both Purcey and Roenicke have the stuff too. And that's to say nothing of Zach Stewart.
But I'm not even trying to defend these guys specifically. the point is that (a) young guys step up and pitch impressively in this division all the time; (b) that there is no difference in a young pitcher throwing one inning late in the game than a young pitcher throwing 6 early in the game; and (c) that a lot of these guys are NOT young and NOT inexperienced.
Consider - Jason Frasor departs, Casey Janssen remains. Janssen's stats this year are virtually identical to Frasor's, and he has late game experience from three seasons back. There is NO reason Janssen can't replicate Frasor's work, at a bare minimum. Shawn Camp pitched BETTER than Gregg did.
Downs will be tough to replace, no doubt - he's one of the best at what he does - but what was he when we acquired him?!
Frankly, he was Brad Mills. Nobody could have been sure in 2005 that he would even survive on this team, let alone turn into one of the very best late-inning lefties of the decade.
Let's say the Jays keep Gregg on his option, just to lay aside all the alleged intangiblness of the closer role. Here's a projected pen for 2011, without any signings:
Closer - Gregg
Set up - Camp or Janssen and Carlson or Purcey
middle - Camp or Janssen and Carlson or Purcey
long relief/ spot start - Roenicke and Zep or Mills
If we assume that Hill is in the rotation and Drabek is in Vegas (along with Stewart) that still leaves Buchholz (DON'T obverlook this guy) Richmond, Listch, Accardo and Tallet (both likely non-tendered) Hayhurst, McGowan (if recovered) as overflow.
Of those 12 candidates for the pen, only Listch, Zep, and Mills will be less than 28. and 8 have 2 years or more major league experience.
Cito might as well have come out and said "get more guys cause these guys suck."
Most aggravating of all was this gem:
Geez-almighty-Lousie that man turns my crank.
(Note for clarity, I'm NOT saying it's necessarily a bad idea to find a nice bargain vet guy to add to the mix. Having more depth is fine. But in my opinion, if we add someone, other than a closer, it ought to be a guy who will have to come in here and TAKE the set-up job from the in-house guy, not a guy who's the presumptive favorite because he's past 30)
The great and wise Cito took it upon himself to comment on the 2011 bullpen situation as recorded by Jordan Bastian here.
Gaston says, in the article, that the Jays are in real need of signing veterans for next year's pen because they don't have anyone but "kids" and the "kids" can't be asked to pitch under the pressure of the AL East. Of all the undiluted BS which he's caressed us with this year, this might take the cake.
One of the things he bemoans is that the young starters "go out there and pitch their heart out" - by what logic do we decide that the AL East is not too hard for a 22 or 23 year old Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil or, hell, even a Jesse Litsch for 6 or 7 innings. BUT it's far too hard for 1 inning of work for a 27 year old Josh Roenicke, a 28 year old David Purcey, or a 29 year old Jesse Carlson?
These are KIDS?
(Casey Janssen and Taylor Buchholz are both 28 as well, and that's not even bringing up Shawn Camp)
Now, if you want to argue that these guys don't have the TALENT to pitch in this division, fine - but that has fuck-all to do with their age. Two years ago, then 27 year old Jesse Carlson, with no major league experience, absolutely destroyed the AL East. So did 25 year old Brandon League. In 2007, then 25 year old Casey Janssen was virtually untouchable. and 25 year old Jeremy Accrdo stepped out of obscurity and was one of the best closers in the league.
Cito said, of the closer job "If he's (Gregg) not here, we don't have one. Do you see one? I don't see one."
Who saw Accardo as the 2007 closer in September 2006? Even if we'd known Ryan couldn't answer the bell. Nobody.
Do I KNOW that Purcey or Roenicke or, heck, even Buchholz, will have the composure to close in 2011? Hell know. But I know from what the scouts say that both Purcey and Roenicke have the stuff too. And that's to say nothing of Zach Stewart.
But I'm not even trying to defend these guys specifically. the point is that (a) young guys step up and pitch impressively in this division all the time; (b) that there is no difference in a young pitcher throwing one inning late in the game than a young pitcher throwing 6 early in the game; and (c) that a lot of these guys are NOT young and NOT inexperienced.
Consider - Jason Frasor departs, Casey Janssen remains. Janssen's stats this year are virtually identical to Frasor's, and he has late game experience from three seasons back. There is NO reason Janssen can't replicate Frasor's work, at a bare minimum. Shawn Camp pitched BETTER than Gregg did.
Downs will be tough to replace, no doubt - he's one of the best at what he does - but what was he when we acquired him?!
Frankly, he was Brad Mills. Nobody could have been sure in 2005 that he would even survive on this team, let alone turn into one of the very best late-inning lefties of the decade.
Let's say the Jays keep Gregg on his option, just to lay aside all the alleged intangiblness of the closer role. Here's a projected pen for 2011, without any signings:
Closer - Gregg
Set up - Camp or Janssen and Carlson or Purcey
middle - Camp or Janssen and Carlson or Purcey
long relief/ spot start - Roenicke and Zep or Mills
If we assume that Hill is in the rotation and Drabek is in Vegas (along with Stewart) that still leaves Buchholz (DON'T obverlook this guy) Richmond, Listch, Accardo and Tallet (both likely non-tendered) Hayhurst, McGowan (if recovered) as overflow.
Of those 12 candidates for the pen, only Listch, Zep, and Mills will be less than 28. and 8 have 2 years or more major league experience.
Cito might as well have come out and said "get more guys cause these guys suck."
Most aggravating of all was this gem:
"I think you've got to have some out there," Gaston said, "some that have been in the war, been in the battle for when you go up against teams like Minnesota or teams like the Yankees, Tampa, Boston. Late in the ballgame, those guys have got to be able to come in and do that job.
"Not to say those kids are not going to be able to do it, but there's going to be a lot of pressure on them. Maybe gradually they can move into that role, but for next year you're going to have to have some veterans out there, I believe."
Gradually? Gradually move in? What has Janssen been doing when healthy the past 4 years? what has Purcey been doing? what has Carlson been doing? They have been, under Cito, the back of the pen guys instead of frontline. ok, cool, gradually they have been readied and now it's time for them to inherit the frontline jobs - if not, just say "these guys suck" and we'll argue about that.
Meanwhile, Zep or Mills or Roenicke slide into those less crucial roles that Purcey and janssen were in and , ya know, EASE INTO IT. But you know what stands in the way of that?
SIGNING VETERANS!!!
How the HELL do you "ease" "young" pitchers into increasingly high leverage roles if you KEEP blocking them with the Tanyon Sturtze's and Kerry Lightenberg's of the world (someone remind me how THAT worked out for us again? no, wait, don't)
Geez-almighty-Lousie that man turns my crank.
(Note for clarity, I'm NOT saying it's necessarily a bad idea to find a nice bargain vet guy to add to the mix. Having more depth is fine. But in my opinion, if we add someone, other than a closer, it ought to be a guy who will have to come in here and TAKE the set-up job from the in-house guy, not a guy who's the presumptive favorite because he's past 30)
Friday, 1 October 2010
Going Out and Coming In
I actually had a brief Requiem for Cito written out last night, but lost it and was too pissed to recreate it so, here we go again.
For all my past and ongoing criticism of Cito, all that is days away from being nothing but post-mortem. Yes, I'm bugged that even today he's saying that he somehow owes it to Marcum and Romero to play Buck (but apparently, he owed it to Hill to give him Mike McCoy tonight) but why bother, ya know?
So this week was the week for the feel-good emotionalism about how special he is and what he meant to the franchise and ya know what? I'm good with that. You cannot listen to so very many former players (albeit, not all) line up and tell you how massively classy the man is and not believe it. Other associates in the game, friends, coaches, etc, confirm that description. I have to say that if you ask me to choose between a guy who makes all the right strategical moves and is an ass everyone hates, or a guy who is beloved and called "pure class" who occasionally provokes a "WTF?" moment - I gotta go with the latter. Easily.
No manager is perfect, none ever will be. The best of them have bad seasons and all of them fail in the eyes of armchair managers. And no matter how strong those late-80's and early 90's teams were, not just anyone could have managed those teams to a championship (not saying Cito is the only one but there's still skill involved). Whatever else he got wrong (ask me sometime about Olerud's exit), he has credit coming and I think it's a goodness that he went out through the front door this time, instead of having his '97 exit being his send off.
Just don't go yakking about the hall of fame, m'kay?
Now, on the business of finding the next manager, Alex is, of course, always the Artful Dodger in terms of giving up any info. He was little different in the interview with Bob McCowan today. however, if you dilligently parse it, you might glean that the vauge rumors that he has his list down to 8 or 9 are probably more true than false, with the caveat that someone who gets fired might be a late entrant.
Sifting through the sparse rumors, one can perhaps piece together who might be on that list. I'm gonna give you a dozen guesses here.
Nick Leyva and Brian Butterfield, Don Baylor, Tim Wallach, Ryne Sandberg, Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin, Don Wakamatsu, Rob Thompson, Randy Ready, Dave Martinez, Juan Samuel.
I'd be willing to wager, even with AA's legendary stealth, that most if not all of his 8 or 9 guys are among those dozen. I've been saying since last year that I considered Butterfield to be the front runner, just because it made so very much sense to hire a guy who was intimately familiar with the players here. But lately I have a growing hunch, occasionally fuled by a rumor such as the one reported today by Bob Nightengale (albeit, I do not consider him an oracle of truth in rumor mongering) but mostly just in terms of listening to AA describe what he wants and sussing out who seems to fit that model.
At this point, if I had to make a prediction, I'd have to guess Wallach - and I'd hope fervently that he was open to and presuaded to keep Butter and Walton, at least, on his staff. (and I'd spend enough on Butter to keep him out of Showalter's grasp)
For all my past and ongoing criticism of Cito, all that is days away from being nothing but post-mortem. Yes, I'm bugged that even today he's saying that he somehow owes it to Marcum and Romero to play Buck (but apparently, he owed it to Hill to give him Mike McCoy tonight) but why bother, ya know?
So this week was the week for the feel-good emotionalism about how special he is and what he meant to the franchise and ya know what? I'm good with that. You cannot listen to so very many former players (albeit, not all) line up and tell you how massively classy the man is and not believe it. Other associates in the game, friends, coaches, etc, confirm that description. I have to say that if you ask me to choose between a guy who makes all the right strategical moves and is an ass everyone hates, or a guy who is beloved and called "pure class" who occasionally provokes a "WTF?" moment - I gotta go with the latter. Easily.
No manager is perfect, none ever will be. The best of them have bad seasons and all of them fail in the eyes of armchair managers. And no matter how strong those late-80's and early 90's teams were, not just anyone could have managed those teams to a championship (not saying Cito is the only one but there's still skill involved). Whatever else he got wrong (ask me sometime about Olerud's exit), he has credit coming and I think it's a goodness that he went out through the front door this time, instead of having his '97 exit being his send off.
Just don't go yakking about the hall of fame, m'kay?
Now, on the business of finding the next manager, Alex is, of course, always the Artful Dodger in terms of giving up any info. He was little different in the interview with Bob McCowan today. however, if you dilligently parse it, you might glean that the vauge rumors that he has his list down to 8 or 9 are probably more true than false, with the caveat that someone who gets fired might be a late entrant.
Sifting through the sparse rumors, one can perhaps piece together who might be on that list. I'm gonna give you a dozen guesses here.
Nick Leyva and Brian Butterfield, Don Baylor, Tim Wallach, Ryne Sandberg, Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin, Don Wakamatsu, Rob Thompson, Randy Ready, Dave Martinez, Juan Samuel.
I'd be willing to wager, even with AA's legendary stealth, that most if not all of his 8 or 9 guys are among those dozen. I've been saying since last year that I considered Butterfield to be the front runner, just because it made so very much sense to hire a guy who was intimately familiar with the players here. But lately I have a growing hunch, occasionally fuled by a rumor such as the one reported today by Bob Nightengale (albeit, I do not consider him an oracle of truth in rumor mongering) but mostly just in terms of listening to AA describe what he wants and sussing out who seems to fit that model.
At this point, if I had to make a prediction, I'd have to guess Wallach - and I'd hope fervently that he was open to and presuaded to keep Butter and Walton, at least, on his staff. (and I'd spend enough on Butter to keep him out of Showalter's grasp)
Sunday, 26 September 2010
2010 Positional Review: Catchers
Probably no position in the Blue Jays system other than the starting pitchers has gotten more real and virtual ink than the catchers, and for good reason. When everyone was healthy, the Jays could field a legitimate potential major league catcher for each of their top five minor league teams, and still have a few intriguing if marginal guys besides.
1. J.P. Arencibia (24) - Perhaps no prospect in the Jays system reversed his fortunes in 2010 more than Arencibia. I took the time before writing this commentary to look back and see what I had to say last year, when JPA was coming off the only bad season at the plate he's ever had. That review was written without my even knowing about the fact that Arencibia had had both kidney surgery, and LASIK eye surgery last offseason, or hearing the comments he made in the spring about how much his vision was hampering his production in 2009.
What I did note last year was that Arencibia was, in my judgment, rushed when the Jays assigned him to AAA after only 67 AA games in 2008. The combination of all those factors couldn't help but have led to less than his best work in 2009 and I retained him at the #1 spot among Jays' catchers on that list. but not even I expected the sort of resurgence he had in 2010.
One of the things that jumped out about the 2009 statistics was that in the same months in which Arencibia hit the most homers, he also drew the most walks. Every observer who commented on that season immediately said "you can't cut it in the majors with that walk rate." Well, Arencibia was apparently listening, increasing his BB% from 5.6% to 9.2% (which is about equal to John Buck's career high in the majors). that is still not great, and it is undoubtedly his greatest weakness, but it's not too low to survive in the majors. Arencibia really is looking an awful lot like Buck 2.0, though one hopes he can live up to his billing over the course of his career better than Buck (who got a lot of praise coming through the minors) did.
2. Carlos Perez (20) - Maybe not the guy you expected to see at this point? I'll get to the other guy in a sec. There was considerable buzz around Perez last off-season (ranked in more than one Top 10 list), though he was and is a long way from the majors in terms of the development chain. He did nothing but get better this year. Playing in 66 games for short-season Auburn, Perez posted an .834 OPS (fueled by a .396 OBP) and had eight triples and seven steals, demonstrating his speed and athleticism. He's expected to develop power as he matures, and that skill - if it comes - would make him as complete a player as their is in the Jays system.
He's considered a skilled defender for his age as well, but given his physical skills, it is not inconcievable that with so many good catchers he ends up being moved to another position if he's blocked when he's ready for the majors in 3-4 years. He'll get his first shot at full season ball in Lansing next year.
3. Travis d'Arnaud (22) - The Jays were really excited to acquire d'Arnaud (whom they had intended to draft with the pick that turned out to be Brett Cecil before the Phillies scooped him up) in the Halladay deal and out of the gate, he certainly justified that praise. In April he put up a sterling .909 OPS but that number began to slip in May as he suffered from what we would eventually learn to be pain in his lower back. A DL stint did little to alleviate the situation and d'Arnaud returned a shell of his former self, striking out 48 times in 44 June and July games (which was wildly off from his career pattern to that point). After he hit .205 in July he was shut down at the end of the month and, I believe, was sent for surgery on his back.
Back injuries are big red flags for catchers, especially one who's in an organization where the major league team plays on turf. It's difficult to forecast what the future holds for d'Arnaud. If healthy, he's arguably a top 10 prospect for the Blue Jays - but that's a big if. Also, it might so happen to be that he's repaired enough to play, but not enough to be a catcher. Keep an eye out for the possibility of him being moved out from behind the plate if the injury is chronic. it the health question that leads me to rank him this low. If healthy, it's possible the Jays might advance him to NH in the spring, despite the poor results at Dunedin.
4. AJ Jimenez (20) - Puerto Rican Jimenez, who'll turn 21 in early May next year, spent the year at Lansing and insisted on being included in the catcher conversation. His manager was former major league catcher Sal Fasano, and Fasano raved about Jimenez's major league potential. Like Perez, he's athletic (he stole 17 bases) and yet to develop as much power as you'd like, and he, too, is said to be a quality defender. Unlike Perez, he has serious work to do on his walk rate, and needs to cut down on his strikeouts.
Of all the guys here so far, if you lay aside potential health issues, Jimenez might be the guy most likely to pull a Sandy Martinez and simply not translate to the majors. But don't assume that means I'm writing him off. He's a talented kid and just needs refinement. Look for him to go to Dunedin next year (in lock-step with d'Arnaud's promotion) and don't be surprised if that pitcher's league makes him look kinda bad - very few hitters put up real impressive states in the FSL.
5. Brian Jeroloman (25) - Thanks to the maddening quirks of MiLB, I can't give you the specific details of Jeroloman's 2010 season but from memory I can tell you this - along about mid-may one of the most intriguing questions in the Jays' system was "What's gotten into Brian Jeroloman?" The defense-first catcher (he's been compared to the best of major league defenders over the last decade or so - think Mike Matheny or Brad Ausmus, for instance) had suddenly figured out what the lumber was for. Sadly, it didn't last and he reverted pretty much to form over the balance of the season.
Still, it was on the whole an impressive second spin around the EL. He raised his OBP (the one offensive skill that had been his calling card before 2009) from .330 to .429 and improved his slugging percentage by almost 100 points. It's difficult to know what to make of the early offensive outburst, but the smart money is still on Jeroloman settling in as a classic all-glove, no-bat major league second string catcher in a year or two. But next year, he'll get to inflate his stats again be heading to Las Vegas.
Other catchers in the system to keep an eye on: Yan Gomes (free-swinger with good pop), Sean Ochinko (versatile guy, can play 3B and 1B), and Santiago Nessy (bonus baby is a LONG way off),
1. J.P. Arencibia (24) - Perhaps no prospect in the Jays system reversed his fortunes in 2010 more than Arencibia. I took the time before writing this commentary to look back and see what I had to say last year, when JPA was coming off the only bad season at the plate he's ever had. That review was written without my even knowing about the fact that Arencibia had had both kidney surgery, and LASIK eye surgery last offseason, or hearing the comments he made in the spring about how much his vision was hampering his production in 2009.
What I did note last year was that Arencibia was, in my judgment, rushed when the Jays assigned him to AAA after only 67 AA games in 2008. The combination of all those factors couldn't help but have led to less than his best work in 2009 and I retained him at the #1 spot among Jays' catchers on that list. but not even I expected the sort of resurgence he had in 2010.
One of the things that jumped out about the 2009 statistics was that in the same months in which Arencibia hit the most homers, he also drew the most walks. Every observer who commented on that season immediately said "you can't cut it in the majors with that walk rate." Well, Arencibia was apparently listening, increasing his BB% from 5.6% to 9.2% (which is about equal to John Buck's career high in the majors). that is still not great, and it is undoubtedly his greatest weakness, but it's not too low to survive in the majors. Arencibia really is looking an awful lot like Buck 2.0, though one hopes he can live up to his billing over the course of his career better than Buck (who got a lot of praise coming through the minors) did.
2. Carlos Perez (20) - Maybe not the guy you expected to see at this point? I'll get to the other guy in a sec. There was considerable buzz around Perez last off-season (ranked in more than one Top 10 list), though he was and is a long way from the majors in terms of the development chain. He did nothing but get better this year. Playing in 66 games for short-season Auburn, Perez posted an .834 OPS (fueled by a .396 OBP) and had eight triples and seven steals, demonstrating his speed and athleticism. He's expected to develop power as he matures, and that skill - if it comes - would make him as complete a player as their is in the Jays system.
He's considered a skilled defender for his age as well, but given his physical skills, it is not inconcievable that with so many good catchers he ends up being moved to another position if he's blocked when he's ready for the majors in 3-4 years. He'll get his first shot at full season ball in Lansing next year.
3. Travis d'Arnaud (22) - The Jays were really excited to acquire d'Arnaud (whom they had intended to draft with the pick that turned out to be Brett Cecil before the Phillies scooped him up) in the Halladay deal and out of the gate, he certainly justified that praise. In April he put up a sterling .909 OPS but that number began to slip in May as he suffered from what we would eventually learn to be pain in his lower back. A DL stint did little to alleviate the situation and d'Arnaud returned a shell of his former self, striking out 48 times in 44 June and July games (which was wildly off from his career pattern to that point). After he hit .205 in July he was shut down at the end of the month and, I believe, was sent for surgery on his back.
Back injuries are big red flags for catchers, especially one who's in an organization where the major league team plays on turf. It's difficult to forecast what the future holds for d'Arnaud. If healthy, he's arguably a top 10 prospect for the Blue Jays - but that's a big if. Also, it might so happen to be that he's repaired enough to play, but not enough to be a catcher. Keep an eye out for the possibility of him being moved out from behind the plate if the injury is chronic. it the health question that leads me to rank him this low. If healthy, it's possible the Jays might advance him to NH in the spring, despite the poor results at Dunedin.
4. AJ Jimenez (20) - Puerto Rican Jimenez, who'll turn 21 in early May next year, spent the year at Lansing and insisted on being included in the catcher conversation. His manager was former major league catcher Sal Fasano, and Fasano raved about Jimenez's major league potential. Like Perez, he's athletic (he stole 17 bases) and yet to develop as much power as you'd like, and he, too, is said to be a quality defender. Unlike Perez, he has serious work to do on his walk rate, and needs to cut down on his strikeouts.
Of all the guys here so far, if you lay aside potential health issues, Jimenez might be the guy most likely to pull a Sandy Martinez and simply not translate to the majors. But don't assume that means I'm writing him off. He's a talented kid and just needs refinement. Look for him to go to Dunedin next year (in lock-step with d'Arnaud's promotion) and don't be surprised if that pitcher's league makes him look kinda bad - very few hitters put up real impressive states in the FSL.
5. Brian Jeroloman (25) - Thanks to the maddening quirks of MiLB, I can't give you the specific details of Jeroloman's 2010 season but from memory I can tell you this - along about mid-may one of the most intriguing questions in the Jays' system was "What's gotten into Brian Jeroloman?" The defense-first catcher (he's been compared to the best of major league defenders over the last decade or so - think Mike Matheny or Brad Ausmus, for instance) had suddenly figured out what the lumber was for. Sadly, it didn't last and he reverted pretty much to form over the balance of the season.
Still, it was on the whole an impressive second spin around the EL. He raised his OBP (the one offensive skill that had been his calling card before 2009) from .330 to .429 and improved his slugging percentage by almost 100 points. It's difficult to know what to make of the early offensive outburst, but the smart money is still on Jeroloman settling in as a classic all-glove, no-bat major league second string catcher in a year or two. But next year, he'll get to inflate his stats again be heading to Las Vegas.
Other catchers in the system to keep an eye on: Yan Gomes (free-swinger with good pop), Sean Ochinko (versatile guy, can play 3B and 1B), and Santiago Nessy (bonus baby is a LONG way off),
Friday, 24 September 2010
Point of Order
We've heard, over the course of the last month, a considerable amount of rhetoric floated about the interwebs concerning whether or not Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera should be the MVP. Occasionally this buzz is invaded by some enterprising soul, engaging in the ever-present and always annoying effort to make the Yankees the center of every discussion, who insists that it is really Robinson Cano who is worthy.
Many's the time the case is made that the Tigers would be the Mariners without Cabrera, while the Rangers have a potent lineup. Others delve into the relative value of various stats, or the comparable values of their defensive positions (this is where the Cano crowd really turns up the volume).
What you NEVER hear in these discussions is any mention of the man who now has not only 52 homers, but 41% more homers than his closest competitor: Jose Bautista.
For all the good it will do me (i.e. none) let me guide you, gentle reader, through the logic which leads me to call that omission a travesty.
First, let's take the comparisons individually. Since Cabrera seems to be the slight favorite, I'll start with him. As of the end of play on Friday, September 24, 2010, here are the stats (no WAR or anything because the voters won't look at the advanced metrics anyway) with JB on the left and MC on the right:
Avg - .268 - .329
OBP - .387 - .420
SLG - .635 - .619
OPS - 1.021 - .1039
AB - 534 - 535
R - 105 - 108
H - 143 - 176
2B - 34 - 45
3B - 3 - 1
HR - 52 - 36
XBH - 89 - 82
RBI - 118 - 122
BB - 98 - 87
K - 106 - 93
Note that if JB had TEN more SINGLES he'd have the same OPS as Cabrera.
I ask you fair minded reader, even if you allow that Cabrera's season is marginally better (coming into tonight, his OPS+ was slightly ahead) does it make any sense to you that Cabrera is the marginal favorite and Bautista is not even in the damned conversation?!
Perhaps you prefer Hamilton?
(parenthesis is Hamilton's rate pro-rated to same number of AB as Bautista)
Avg - .268 - .361
OBP - .387 - .414
SLG - .635 - .635
OPS - 1.021 - .1049
AB - 534 - 507
R - 105 - 94 (99)
H - 143 - 183 (193)
2B - 34 - 40 (42)
3B - 3 - 3 (3)
HR - 52 - 31 (33)
XBH - 89 - 74 (78)
RBI - 118 - 97 (102)
BB - 98 - 43 (45)
K - 106 - 95 (100)
Again, the major difference here is fueled by batting average. Fifteen singles and they have identical OPS figures. Again, Hamilton is in every MVP story, Bautista can't get a mention.
Cano? don't get me started!
Avg - .268 - .319
OBP - .387 - .380
SLG - .635 - .536
OPS - 1.021 - .916
AB - 534 - 595
R - 105 - 100
H - 143 - 190
2B - 34 - 39
3B - 3 - 3
HR - 52 - 28
XBH - 89 - 70
RBI - 118 - 104
BB - 98 - 55
K - 106 - 74
I'll deviate from my "old school stats" format here to point out that even if you factor in defense, Cano's WAR (6.5) is slightly below Bautista's (6.7) - you irrational Yankees fans can now exit the room.
Now, to go back to the front runners, the argument in favor of Hamilton is superior stats (and he does lead this group with a WAR of 8) and if that's your position, cool. But are you willing to say that his stats are SO superior that a man who's about one single every two weeks away from him isn't even in the top 3 candidates? Still, I tip my hat to the Hamilton argument - if total stats are your bottom line then fine, vote Hamilton #1 and Bautista #2 and we have no quarrel.
My real beef here is with the folks who say "Where would Detroit be without Cabrera?" First, let's specify that both teams have exactly the same W/L record as of tonight. Next, let's look at each team's statistical totals with the player in question factored out.
Without Cabrera, the Tigers' team OPS drops from .753 to .722 (-.031) and their rank in the league drops from 6th best to 10th. Without Bautista, the Jays team OPS drops from .763 to .737 (-.026) and their rank drops from 4th to 9th in the American League. Defensively, by the way, Cabrera fills the second easiest position in the lineup to replace (next to DH) and Baustista saved the Jays a lot of grief by being flexible enough to play two key defensive positions (neither man is a gold glover).
So I ask you, in all sincerity, are the Jays without Bautista - in the AL East no less - really a better team than the Tigers without Cabrera by any appreciable margin?
If not, then I demand justice. By any measure, Bautista is in the same conversation as either Hamilto or Cabrera in terms of offensive production. By the most obvious standards, Bautista was as valuable to the Jays as Cabrera was to the Tigers. if you start talking about the respective teams being contenders, I'll ask you whether it's Bautista's fault (or Cabrera's accomplishment) that the Tigers are not in the AL East.
On shear production, Bautista is the second most valuable hitter in the American League this year. Factoring in the more uncertain factors of value in the context of his particular team, Bautista's claim in that regard is every bit as good as Cabrera's.
Should he win?
Frankly, given that the latter consideration is a draw between Bautista and Cabrera, I'd be inclined to vote for Hamilton. But any voter who puts Cabrera in the top three and not Bautista doesn't deserve his ballot.
(if you think I've made a good case, make sure that the "big name" writers see it and let's see if we can create some late buzz)
Many's the time the case is made that the Tigers would be the Mariners without Cabrera, while the Rangers have a potent lineup. Others delve into the relative value of various stats, or the comparable values of their defensive positions (this is where the Cano crowd really turns up the volume).
What you NEVER hear in these discussions is any mention of the man who now has not only 52 homers, but 41% more homers than his closest competitor: Jose Bautista.
For all the good it will do me (i.e. none) let me guide you, gentle reader, through the logic which leads me to call that omission a travesty.
First, let's take the comparisons individually. Since Cabrera seems to be the slight favorite, I'll start with him. As of the end of play on Friday, September 24, 2010, here are the stats (no WAR or anything because the voters won't look at the advanced metrics anyway) with JB on the left and MC on the right:
Avg - .268 - .329
OBP - .387 - .420
SLG - .635 - .619
OPS - 1.021 - .1039
AB - 534 - 535
R - 105 - 108
H - 143 - 176
2B - 34 - 45
3B - 3 - 1
HR - 52 - 36
XBH - 89 - 82
RBI - 118 - 122
BB - 98 - 87
K - 106 - 93
Note that if JB had TEN more SINGLES he'd have the same OPS as Cabrera.
I ask you fair minded reader, even if you allow that Cabrera's season is marginally better (coming into tonight, his OPS+ was slightly ahead) does it make any sense to you that Cabrera is the marginal favorite and Bautista is not even in the damned conversation?!
Perhaps you prefer Hamilton?
(parenthesis is Hamilton's rate pro-rated to same number of AB as Bautista)
Avg - .268 - .361
OBP - .387 - .414
SLG - .635 - .635
OPS - 1.021 - .1049
AB - 534 - 507
R - 105 - 94 (99)
H - 143 - 183 (193)
2B - 34 - 40 (42)
3B - 3 - 3 (3)
HR - 52 - 31 (33)
XBH - 89 - 74 (78)
RBI - 118 - 97 (102)
BB - 98 - 43 (45)
K - 106 - 95 (100)
Again, the major difference here is fueled by batting average. Fifteen singles and they have identical OPS figures. Again, Hamilton is in every MVP story, Bautista can't get a mention.
Cano? don't get me started!
Avg - .268 - .319
OBP - .387 - .380
SLG - .635 - .536
OPS - 1.021 - .916
AB - 534 - 595
R - 105 - 100
H - 143 - 190
2B - 34 - 39
3B - 3 - 3
HR - 52 - 28
XBH - 89 - 70
RBI - 118 - 104
BB - 98 - 55
K - 106 - 74
I'll deviate from my "old school stats" format here to point out that even if you factor in defense, Cano's WAR (6.5) is slightly below Bautista's (6.7) - you irrational Yankees fans can now exit the room.
Now, to go back to the front runners, the argument in favor of Hamilton is superior stats (and he does lead this group with a WAR of 8) and if that's your position, cool. But are you willing to say that his stats are SO superior that a man who's about one single every two weeks away from him isn't even in the top 3 candidates? Still, I tip my hat to the Hamilton argument - if total stats are your bottom line then fine, vote Hamilton #1 and Bautista #2 and we have no quarrel.
My real beef here is with the folks who say "Where would Detroit be without Cabrera?" First, let's specify that both teams have exactly the same W/L record as of tonight. Next, let's look at each team's statistical totals with the player in question factored out.
Without Cabrera, the Tigers' team OPS drops from .753 to .722 (-.031) and their rank in the league drops from 6th best to 10th. Without Bautista, the Jays team OPS drops from .763 to .737 (-.026) and their rank drops from 4th to 9th in the American League. Defensively, by the way, Cabrera fills the second easiest position in the lineup to replace (next to DH) and Baustista saved the Jays a lot of grief by being flexible enough to play two key defensive positions (neither man is a gold glover).
So I ask you, in all sincerity, are the Jays without Bautista - in the AL East no less - really a better team than the Tigers without Cabrera by any appreciable margin?
If not, then I demand justice. By any measure, Bautista is in the same conversation as either Hamilto or Cabrera in terms of offensive production. By the most obvious standards, Bautista was as valuable to the Jays as Cabrera was to the Tigers. if you start talking about the respective teams being contenders, I'll ask you whether it's Bautista's fault (or Cabrera's accomplishment) that the Tigers are not in the AL East.
On shear production, Bautista is the second most valuable hitter in the American League this year. Factoring in the more uncertain factors of value in the context of his particular team, Bautista's claim in that regard is every bit as good as Cabrera's.
Should he win?
Frankly, given that the latter consideration is a draw between Bautista and Cabrera, I'd be inclined to vote for Hamilton. But any voter who puts Cabrera in the top three and not Bautista doesn't deserve his ballot.
(if you think I've made a good case, make sure that the "big name" writers see it and let's see if we can create some late buzz)
Thursday, 23 September 2010
Managing somehow
As the Cito Countdown reaches Ten Games, and JB has nailed #50...and we even had a sighting of the rare and elusive JPA today (wonder how many of those M's runs would have scored with an actual good defensive catcher behind the plate . . .) the major focus of discussion in jays-land turns to who the next manager will be.
I'll defer to Parkes at DJF for a thumbnail sketch of the oft-mentioned candidates but I did want to throw together a list of all the names I can find that have been mentioned, with a brief thought where appropriate:
EDIT: I've re-ordered the list a bit to try to reflect a ranking of who I think has the best odds, with the exception that I really think Gonzalez lands in Atlanta but he's just too good to rank lower, IMO)
1. Brian Butterfield - top in-house candidate, if familiarity with the organization is a big consideration, that's an ace in his hand.
2. Fredi Gonzalez - if you go outside the organization, this is the guy you probably want - but the assumption is he's a lock to follow Bobby cox in Atlanta.
3. Eric Wedge - One time indians manager, still widely well-regarded
4. Tim Wallach - perhaps the most highly praised out-of-system candidate who hasn't yet managed in the majors, he's the Dodgers AAA manager. the last time the Dodgers passed over their AAA manager and hired someone else, that guy went on to get a job elsewhere - and Mike Scioscia has turned out pretty well.
5. Ryan Sandberg - The "name" guy, reportedly under consideration but seems an awkward fit - if he's good, it would be insane if the Cubs didn't hire him, that's the job he wants. If they don't, that would be a red flag, no? 'Course it could just mean the Cubs are stupid too. You could argue he's a better choice than Wallach but as long as he's holding out for the Chicago job it weakens his chances here.
6. Dave Martinez - One of Joe Maddon's coaches in Tampa, good place to pick up lessons applicable here.
7. Nick Leyva - Has openly declared his desire for it, if jays go with him they might lose Butterfield to Baltimore.
8. Don Baylor - Cito has put in a plug for him.
9. Rob Thomson - Yankees 3B coach, NOT the guy who used to play 2B for the Giants. But he is Canadian, for what that is worth.
10. Pat Listach - yes, the one-time Brewer SS, said to be an "up and comer"
11. Don Wakamatsu - Everyone seems to agree he's got skills and got a raw deal in Seattle.
12. Juan Samuel - another former Jays player (along with Martinez) buzz has cooled lately on him as the list has grown.
13. Luis Rivera - AA manager, probably not his time yet.
14. Sal Fasano - Lansing manager, not his time yet, but likely will work his way up to a big-league staff within a few years.
15. Bobby Valentine - A lot of folks are enamored with him - I've never understood why. Spotlight in TO probably not hot enough for his tastes.
16. Joey Cora - was all the buzz over the last couple of years but less has been said this time around, probably for no important reason.
17. Alan Trammell - Nobody has mentioned him lately, particularly in relation to the Jays. But many feel he was doomed by the talent level in Detroit, and he has good mentors (Sparky Anderson and Lou Pinella).
18. Willie Randolph - Was once the "next big thing" - the dew might be off that rose - or not.
19. Bob Melvin - won manager of the year in Arizona . . . but has lost two different jobs pretty quickly.
20. Bob Brenly - won a ring in Arizona, hasn't managed since they fired him in '04. One has to wonder about the D'Backs penchant for firing people quickly. Also a prominent candidate for the Cubs job. I hope he gets it.
I'll add more as the names come over the wire. It's also necessary, for the sake of thoroughness, to mention that there will be a carousel of "big names" which will be in play this off season as several high profile managers are in the last year of their contract. Notably, the Yankees' Joe Girardi and the Cardinals Tony LaRussa. You can bet Valentine won't take his name out of that dance early. Also, besides Atlanta, Seattle, the Dodgers, the Cubs and Brewers also have openings, and the Mets are sure to join that group. Likely the Pirates as well. So technically, you have to include LaRussa (for instance)as a "candidate" in Toronto but there doesn't seem to be any buzz that they will go for the name choice.
Note: If I misspelled any names, overlook it. I was too rushed to hunt down a spelling verification on all these guys.
I'll defer to Parkes at DJF for a thumbnail sketch of the oft-mentioned candidates but I did want to throw together a list of all the names I can find that have been mentioned, with a brief thought where appropriate:
EDIT: I've re-ordered the list a bit to try to reflect a ranking of who I think has the best odds, with the exception that I really think Gonzalez lands in Atlanta but he's just too good to rank lower, IMO)
1. Brian Butterfield - top in-house candidate, if familiarity with the organization is a big consideration, that's an ace in his hand.
2. Fredi Gonzalez - if you go outside the organization, this is the guy you probably want - but the assumption is he's a lock to follow Bobby cox in Atlanta.
3. Eric Wedge - One time indians manager, still widely well-regarded
4. Tim Wallach - perhaps the most highly praised out-of-system candidate who hasn't yet managed in the majors, he's the Dodgers AAA manager. the last time the Dodgers passed over their AAA manager and hired someone else, that guy went on to get a job elsewhere - and Mike Scioscia has turned out pretty well.
5. Ryan Sandberg - The "name" guy, reportedly under consideration but seems an awkward fit - if he's good, it would be insane if the Cubs didn't hire him, that's the job he wants. If they don't, that would be a red flag, no? 'Course it could just mean the Cubs are stupid too. You could argue he's a better choice than Wallach but as long as he's holding out for the Chicago job it weakens his chances here.
6. Dave Martinez - One of Joe Maddon's coaches in Tampa, good place to pick up lessons applicable here.
7. Nick Leyva - Has openly declared his desire for it, if jays go with him they might lose Butterfield to Baltimore.
8. Don Baylor - Cito has put in a plug for him.
9. Rob Thomson - Yankees 3B coach, NOT the guy who used to play 2B for the Giants. But he is Canadian, for what that is worth.
10. Pat Listach - yes, the one-time Brewer SS, said to be an "up and comer"
11. Don Wakamatsu - Everyone seems to agree he's got skills and got a raw deal in Seattle.
12. Juan Samuel - another former Jays player (along with Martinez) buzz has cooled lately on him as the list has grown.
13. Luis Rivera - AA manager, probably not his time yet.
14. Sal Fasano - Lansing manager, not his time yet, but likely will work his way up to a big-league staff within a few years.
15. Bobby Valentine - A lot of folks are enamored with him - I've never understood why. Spotlight in TO probably not hot enough for his tastes.
16. Joey Cora - was all the buzz over the last couple of years but less has been said this time around, probably for no important reason.
17. Alan Trammell - Nobody has mentioned him lately, particularly in relation to the Jays. But many feel he was doomed by the talent level in Detroit, and he has good mentors (Sparky Anderson and Lou Pinella).
18. Willie Randolph - Was once the "next big thing" - the dew might be off that rose - or not.
19. Bob Melvin - won manager of the year in Arizona . . . but has lost two different jobs pretty quickly.
20. Bob Brenly - won a ring in Arizona, hasn't managed since they fired him in '04. One has to wonder about the D'Backs penchant for firing people quickly. Also a prominent candidate for the Cubs job. I hope he gets it.
I'll add more as the names come over the wire. It's also necessary, for the sake of thoroughness, to mention that there will be a carousel of "big names" which will be in play this off season as several high profile managers are in the last year of their contract. Notably, the Yankees' Joe Girardi and the Cardinals Tony LaRussa. You can bet Valentine won't take his name out of that dance early. Also, besides Atlanta, Seattle, the Dodgers, the Cubs and Brewers also have openings, and the Mets are sure to join that group. Likely the Pirates as well. So technically, you have to include LaRussa (for instance)as a "candidate" in Toronto but there doesn't seem to be any buzz that they will go for the name choice.
Note: If I misspelled any names, overlook it. I was too rushed to hunt down a spelling verification on all these guys.
Saturday, 18 September 2010
2010 Positional Review: Relief Pitchers
As Jose Bautista moves within one of being the first Blue Jay ever to reach 50 home runs (I doubt even the BAS saw THAT coming) and we learn that the Blue Jays highest short season team will be playing in Vancouver next year (more on that later in the off-season) and while we wait to see if Alex Anthopoulos can somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat and get the Jays' AAA out of Las Vegas, it's time for the Weekly positional review. This list will be much shorter than last weeks, but if you start with the starting pitchers, this is what comes next.
The preliminary caveat to this list is that a LOT of guys on the last list will likely find that the bullpen is their fastest route to the majors. In fact, if Bob Elliot is to be believed, the Jays warned both Henderson Alvarez and Zach Stewart that they should be prepared for either role next year. Though frankly, it would take an unusual circumstance for either to be relieving next year. Alvarez is just too far down the chain for a player of his caliber to go to the 'pen (In fact, there's even a possibility that Elliot misplaced a comma and Alvarez wasn't in fact, given this instruction).
As for Stewart, the obvious explanation is that the talented right-hander (who's considered to be good enough to close in the majors now better than most who are doing that job) is the hole card that the Jays have in reserve as they manipulate the shape of their major league 'pen over the off-season. If the Jays decide to decline the option on Kevin Gregg and collect the compensatory draft pick, then the closer role is up for grabs with David Purcey and Josh Roenicke the presumptive front runners. But both pitchers have warts on their previous records and if the more experienced candidates fail, the Jays might open the door for Stewart - especially given the depth of options for the rotation over the next year or two.
Now, looking down the list, the following guys (not all rookies of course) could find themselves candidates for the major league 'pen in 2011 having been squeezed out of the rotation: Scott Richmond, Marc Rzepzynski, Brad Mills, Jesse Litsch, and Bobby Ray.
Looking further down the list, some obvious candidates to get a clearer path to the majors in relief pitching than as starters include: Bobby Bell, Joel Cerrano, Luis Perez and possibly(because of his health record) Sam Dyson. Of course, any starter who gets buried in the depth chart is equal parts relief candidate and trade bait.
On to the list:
1. Josh Roenicke (28) RHP - The sequence of this list is a total judgment call, and I could put any of the top four anywhere in the top four and be both right and wrong. Of the four, there has been more praise directed at Roenicke's raw ability than any of the rest and that's why he's here. It's true he's 28 which, in normal terms, is too old to still be a prospect. The thing that makes him an exception is that he came to pitching late, being 23 when the Reds converted him, and he has only about 260 IP in his career. He's said to have real closer ability if he can make progress with his control, which has been sporadic.
2. Danny Farquhar (24) RHP - Farquhar opened the AA season as a closer but was moved out of that role in may as the Jays saw him as a reliever more suited to multiple innings. He's quite good at missing bats and fairly good at missing the strike zone as well. While posting an impressively low H:9 ratio of 5.82 over his career, Farquhar still only managed a 1.21 WHIP in 2010. Farquhar is notorious for throwing from multiple arm angles which contributes to the difficulty to hit him, one would assume, as well as potentially leading to more wildness in the aggregate.
One thing to note about his 2010 season: Over almost six weeks from May 1 to June 8, Farquhar threw 16 IP and gave up 19 earned runs (and allowed 18 hits and walked 16). In all other appearances, he he threw 60.2 innings and gave up 11 earned runs (32 hits and 26 walks) - that's an ERA of 1.63 and if that represents the "real" Danny Farquhar, then that's something to be excited about.
3. Trystan Magnuson (25) RHP - the lanky (6'7") Magnuson isn't a power pitcher but he's become quite a good one. At one point during the 2010 season he went 8 weeks (17 appearances) without giving up a single run, earned or otherwise. His control is superlative, giving up only 10 walks all year (including only 3 in his last 30 IP) but he's not overpowering (hitters averaged .256 off him as compared to .189 for Farquhar). His ceiling might be a sort of Jon Rauch type reliever, though he's less likely to see that kind of leverage until he proves himself in the majors.
4. Alan Farina (24) RHP - Promoted to AA for good in July (after a brief earlier visit) Farina continued the dominance he'd begun at Dunedin. His combined ERA for both stops was 1.29 and hitters in the Eastern League had even less success than those in the FSL against him (.092 in the EL, .156 in A ball). He's a half step behind the two men in front of him, having only 19 IP in AA, but his work is so impressive he might catch up with them soon. Like Farquhar, he has an impressive ground ball ratio which can only help as he moves up to pitch in front of better defenses and on better fields. With the right chain of events, all four of these guys could pitch in Toronto in 2011.
5. Frank Gailey (25) LHP - There's a considerable gap in projectability between the top four and the rest, but there are some names to note and Gailey is one. He's a bit old for Dunedin (at 24 this year) which is why there's a caveat, but perhaps it should be a smaller one than I've implied. Gailey was a workhorse in the Dunedin pen, logging an very impressive 91.1 IP (only one start on the back-end of a double header in which he went 4 innings) and striking out 99 against a stingy 10 walks. Given his age, relative to level, he's another guy than can and should be challenged and moved as fast as his production indicates.
6. Evan Crawford (24) LHP - Crawford did well after being shifted from a sometimes starter at Lansing to a full-time reliever in Dunedin. He showed a rather extreme groudball split (2.74) and batters hit just .237 off him. He got better as he went on too, posting an ERA of 0.93 after August 1. He was a tic old for that level, and hopefully the Jays challenge him by moving him up to AA next spring.
7. Matt Wright (23) LHP - He'll turn 24 on May 7 and spent the whole year in Lansing where he was some two years old for what's considered real prospect territory for that level, but he struck out 82 in 67.2 IP and held opposition hitters to a .201 BA. Another guy who needs to be challenged as it's not uncommon for an older guy to dominate in the lower levels and, while team coaches and scouts might know what they have and what's illusion, it's hard for us to discern that from stats.
8. Drew Permison (22) RHP - Drafted in the 42nd round of the 2010 draft, Permison announced his presence with authority for the Auburn Doubledays, striking out 59 in 39 IP and holding opposing hitters to a .164 BA. Again, age is a slight caveat, as is his late-round draft status, but doing so well in his first professional season is worth noting.
Other names to watch include Kyle Ginley, who once had good raw stuff but can't stay healthy, Dustin Antolin who also was highly praised but went for TJ surgery earl in the season, as well as several others who are probably not going to amount to much but, given the task of identifying promising pitchers who are relieving in the low minors is highly problematic I'll err on the high side and list several names:
RHPs Ron Uviedo, Matt Daley, Nestor Molina, Dayton Martze, Daniel Barnes, and LHPs Rommie Lewis, and Michael Kelly.
The preliminary caveat to this list is that a LOT of guys on the last list will likely find that the bullpen is their fastest route to the majors. In fact, if Bob Elliot is to be believed, the Jays warned both Henderson Alvarez and Zach Stewart that they should be prepared for either role next year. Though frankly, it would take an unusual circumstance for either to be relieving next year. Alvarez is just too far down the chain for a player of his caliber to go to the 'pen (In fact, there's even a possibility that Elliot misplaced a comma and Alvarez wasn't in fact, given this instruction).
As for Stewart, the obvious explanation is that the talented right-hander (who's considered to be good enough to close in the majors now better than most who are doing that job) is the hole card that the Jays have in reserve as they manipulate the shape of their major league 'pen over the off-season. If the Jays decide to decline the option on Kevin Gregg and collect the compensatory draft pick, then the closer role is up for grabs with David Purcey and Josh Roenicke the presumptive front runners. But both pitchers have warts on their previous records and if the more experienced candidates fail, the Jays might open the door for Stewart - especially given the depth of options for the rotation over the next year or two.
Now, looking down the list, the following guys (not all rookies of course) could find themselves candidates for the major league 'pen in 2011 having been squeezed out of the rotation: Scott Richmond, Marc Rzepzynski, Brad Mills, Jesse Litsch, and Bobby Ray.
Looking further down the list, some obvious candidates to get a clearer path to the majors in relief pitching than as starters include: Bobby Bell, Joel Cerrano, Luis Perez and possibly(because of his health record) Sam Dyson. Of course, any starter who gets buried in the depth chart is equal parts relief candidate and trade bait.
On to the list:
1. Josh Roenicke (28) RHP - The sequence of this list is a total judgment call, and I could put any of the top four anywhere in the top four and be both right and wrong. Of the four, there has been more praise directed at Roenicke's raw ability than any of the rest and that's why he's here. It's true he's 28 which, in normal terms, is too old to still be a prospect. The thing that makes him an exception is that he came to pitching late, being 23 when the Reds converted him, and he has only about 260 IP in his career. He's said to have real closer ability if he can make progress with his control, which has been sporadic.
2. Danny Farquhar (24) RHP - Farquhar opened the AA season as a closer but was moved out of that role in may as the Jays saw him as a reliever more suited to multiple innings. He's quite good at missing bats and fairly good at missing the strike zone as well. While posting an impressively low H:9 ratio of 5.82 over his career, Farquhar still only managed a 1.21 WHIP in 2010. Farquhar is notorious for throwing from multiple arm angles which contributes to the difficulty to hit him, one would assume, as well as potentially leading to more wildness in the aggregate.
One thing to note about his 2010 season: Over almost six weeks from May 1 to June 8, Farquhar threw 16 IP and gave up 19 earned runs (and allowed 18 hits and walked 16). In all other appearances, he he threw 60.2 innings and gave up 11 earned runs (32 hits and 26 walks) - that's an ERA of 1.63 and if that represents the "real" Danny Farquhar, then that's something to be excited about.
3. Trystan Magnuson (25) RHP - the lanky (6'7") Magnuson isn't a power pitcher but he's become quite a good one. At one point during the 2010 season he went 8 weeks (17 appearances) without giving up a single run, earned or otherwise. His control is superlative, giving up only 10 walks all year (including only 3 in his last 30 IP) but he's not overpowering (hitters averaged .256 off him as compared to .189 for Farquhar). His ceiling might be a sort of Jon Rauch type reliever, though he's less likely to see that kind of leverage until he proves himself in the majors.
4. Alan Farina (24) RHP - Promoted to AA for good in July (after a brief earlier visit) Farina continued the dominance he'd begun at Dunedin. His combined ERA for both stops was 1.29 and hitters in the Eastern League had even less success than those in the FSL against him (.092 in the EL, .156 in A ball). He's a half step behind the two men in front of him, having only 19 IP in AA, but his work is so impressive he might catch up with them soon. Like Farquhar, he has an impressive ground ball ratio which can only help as he moves up to pitch in front of better defenses and on better fields. With the right chain of events, all four of these guys could pitch in Toronto in 2011.
5. Frank Gailey (25) LHP - There's a considerable gap in projectability between the top four and the rest, but there are some names to note and Gailey is one. He's a bit old for Dunedin (at 24 this year) which is why there's a caveat, but perhaps it should be a smaller one than I've implied. Gailey was a workhorse in the Dunedin pen, logging an very impressive 91.1 IP (only one start on the back-end of a double header in which he went 4 innings) and striking out 99 against a stingy 10 walks. Given his age, relative to level, he's another guy than can and should be challenged and moved as fast as his production indicates.
6. Evan Crawford (24) LHP - Crawford did well after being shifted from a sometimes starter at Lansing to a full-time reliever in Dunedin. He showed a rather extreme groudball split (2.74) and batters hit just .237 off him. He got better as he went on too, posting an ERA of 0.93 after August 1. He was a tic old for that level, and hopefully the Jays challenge him by moving him up to AA next spring.
7. Matt Wright (23) LHP - He'll turn 24 on May 7 and spent the whole year in Lansing where he was some two years old for what's considered real prospect territory for that level, but he struck out 82 in 67.2 IP and held opposition hitters to a .201 BA. Another guy who needs to be challenged as it's not uncommon for an older guy to dominate in the lower levels and, while team coaches and scouts might know what they have and what's illusion, it's hard for us to discern that from stats.
8. Drew Permison (22) RHP - Drafted in the 42nd round of the 2010 draft, Permison announced his presence with authority for the Auburn Doubledays, striking out 59 in 39 IP and holding opposing hitters to a .164 BA. Again, age is a slight caveat, as is his late-round draft status, but doing so well in his first professional season is worth noting.
Other names to watch include Kyle Ginley, who once had good raw stuff but can't stay healthy, Dustin Antolin who also was highly praised but went for TJ surgery earl in the season, as well as several others who are probably not going to amount to much but, given the task of identifying promising pitchers who are relieving in the low minors is highly problematic I'll err on the high side and list several names:
RHPs Ron Uviedo, Matt Daley, Nestor Molina, Dayton Martze, Daniel Barnes, and LHPs Rommie Lewis, and Michael Kelly.
Wells Played.
(I almost titled this "Wells done" but that might have mislead)
By now many of you know that our own Vernon Wells is the 2010 winner of the Branch Rickey Award.
The Rickey Award is given each year to the player who best personifies Rotary International's motto, "Service Above Self" through their humanitarian works. Well informed Toronto residents and Jays fans have been aware for some time the amount of money and effort Wells pours into his Perfect 10 Foundation and he's a regular nominee for this award. It is a considerable honor to win it and he'll be inducted into the Baseball Humanitarians Hall of Fame in Denver on Nov. 13, 2010.
It is appropriate then, that I echo the comments made elsewhere: for all the grief Wells took on the field last year, whether justified or not, on a human level (you know, up here where the stuff that's more important than a child's game lives) it really is a shame that shuch a throughly classy guy had to go through that. it's one thing to boo the Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens' of the world, or even to boo the guy you perceive to be an ass on a rival team (looking at you A-Rod and Youk) but I, for one, would love to see the fans of my favorite team show as much class towards classy guys as they deserve, even when their on-field performance disappoints us.
Next time we bitch and moan how very much money the super-deep pockets of Rogers Communications has to come up with for Vernon Wells, let's take a minute to note how VERY much of that money is passed on to the neediest among us and ask ourselves - is it REALLY such a crime that the pockets of the big faceless corporate giant are a little lighter so that a good-hearted ball player can make a difference in countless young lives who need it most?
(Yes, I know the purpose of the contract wasn't to help poor kids but that is the ultimate effect)
Certainly, between the lines, he's making too much money from 2010-2014, but the important stuff in this world doesn't happen between the chalk lines, as much as we fans might sometimes lose sight of that fact.
Friday, 17 September 2010
...and now we know
Is it possible to roll one's eyes completely out the back of their head?
I feel I must try.
As if we didn't have enough to shake our heads about with our erstwhile manager and his loopy explanations for his illogical actions, we get this, from Cito yesterday concerning his reasoning for STILL sitting JPA even though Baltimore is no contender (you might remember his LAST excuse was he had to play vets against contenders out of respect to the pennant race):
"The thing I'd like to see is to give Buck every opportunity to get his 20th home run," Gaston said. "The sooner he gets it, I can do something. That's pretty much what it is."
Uh . . . excuse my crudeness but WHAT THE FUCK?
SERIOUSLY?
It was bad enough when he was playing vets for their next contract - hell he can even crow about that given that Overbay came out of his early season slump - but at least there wasn't a prospect losing at bats to Overbay. But playing a guy for a very ordinary "milestone"? ARGH!
Note well, he didn't say "one of the reasons" or "it's A consideration" he said "the THING is" - singular. he said "that's pretty much it" which doesn't leave room for that plus something else.
then, as if he realized for a second what a fool he sounded like, he amended his remarks thusly:
Gaston said another consideration for the 24-year-old Arencibia's lack of playing time has been the Blue Jays' young pitching staff, which has grown accustomed to throwing to Buck.
"We kind of owe them something, too," Gaston said. "Not to say that [Arencibia] is not a good receiver back there -- he is a good receiver -- but you want to put the best lineup out there for [the pitchers' sake], too. They're really responsible for us even having [73] wins."
let's break this down - there's only three potential considerations for what it means to "put the best lineup out there"
1. Offense - so, the same man who starts Mike McCoy over Snider in left field, or John McDonald at 3B, feels obliged to put the best hitters out there every day? As Daffy duck would day "it is to laugh!"
2. Handling pitchers - the argument might be made that the pitchers had rather throw to Buck. first, that's stupid since none of them have thrown to him more than twice and most haven't at all. Second, he's the guy they will throw to next year so they might as well get over it. third, the argument might be made that Buck is "helping the young pitchers" but the counter-argument is - if they haven't learned everything Buck has to teach them in 25+ starts, what are they going to learn in the last 2 or 3? At most this argument only applies to Drabek.
2. Other defense - throwing out runners, blocking the plate, et al. again, JPA is gonna have to do that in 2011, what long term goal are we sacrificing to see if he can do that NOW (more than what we already know from his minor league work). and if the difference beyond marginal enough that we have insulted Ricky Romero (for instance) more by doing so than we do by starting a short stop in left field?
It's utter bullshit. On every level.
Now, let's be fair - there IS a good reason why JPA might spend his time sitting upon recall - the learning curve for a young pitcher in knowing how to pitch to all these unfamiliar players is incredibly steep. But if JPA were only going to start in September in games that didn't affect the pennant race, he'd only need to study FOUR teams. If he can't learn that in two weeks we have a problem.
But that's irrelevant because Cito didn't SAY "Arencibia needs time to learn the hitters in this league and we have him working on that." Which would have been a perfectly rational and reasonable argument, even if you think it overstated.
Let us remember that, for the previous five years or so at least, that the hue and cry about JP Ricciardi was what a liar he was (among other things) - where are those people now?
A GM arguably has far more reason to lie to the fans than a manager does, so why can't Cito be straight with us?
I mean, sure, he MIGHT be telling the truth - but if he is, he has no business in the job on the face of it. His stated reasoning is often wildly irrational. so I prefer to think that his actual reasons are not what he chooses to say into a microphone, because anyone that irrational shouldn't succeed to the extent he does.
Personally, I'd take it a LOT better if he just came out and said "Veterans have earned the right to start and kids can damned well wait their turn" and let the chips fall where they may. I might disagree, but I could respect it.
Seventeen days . . . and most a-frakin-ssuredly counting.
Monday, 13 September 2010
Let's find out
(Image from the "Scenes we'd like to see more of" file)
I won't bother to dig you up a link but I'm sure you are familiar with Cito Gaston's standing belief that he should play his best (i.e. veteran) lineup when he's facing a contending team out of respect for the race. Fair enough. I don't have to agree but if that's what he claims to believe...okay.
That is, of course, the standard rationalization for why he hasn't given JP Arencibia anything to do in the almost two weeks he's been back with the Jays. Well, we are about to find out if that's more of Cito's Standard Issue bullshit (which is to say, stuff he tells you he thinks right before he goes out and does something which directly contradicts what he told you) or not. For the next two weeks, the Jays are playing non-contenders (Yes, Boston, that includes you) and in the last week, there's a possibility the Twins will be far enough ahead that they are no longer threatened. In short, possibly 12 of the remaining 19 games (allowing for the day-game-after-night-game exception) COULD be available for JPA.
I'll be pretty surprised if he starts more than half that many.
Sunday, 12 September 2010
Just so you know...
From Twitter:
BlueJays Kyle Drabek will be making his major league debut on Wednesday vs. Baltimore
That is all.
BlueJays Kyle Drabek will be making his major league debut on Wednesday vs. Baltimore
That is all.
Saturday, 11 September 2010
2010 Positional Review: Starting Pitchers
I'm changing up the order this year, quite frankly because the most exciting thing to write about in the Jays minor league system is the deep and talented assemblage of starting pitchers. So many in fact that it's certain not all of them will remain starting pitchers. I know that there's nothing more common among fans than overvaluing your own teams' prospects, but even adjusting for that, there's indisputably over half a dozen guys who still haven't reached the majors that have very good odds of being impact major league pitchers.
And that's on top of eight or nine experienced guys who are no longer prospects.
In fact, one of the more interesting stories over the next, say, three seasons is going to be how the Jays sort through the reality that they have more than five guys who have every promise of being excellent major league pitchers in 2012 or 2013.
Looking over the established major league foursome, one guy who's very secure right now is recently extended Ricky Romero. Barring injury he's going to be out there every five days for the foreseeable future.
Behind him is Brandon Morrow. Morrow has three more years under team control and showed enough progress this year to give Jays' management and fans visions of Cy young level dominance.
Then there's Shaun Marcum. He's the veteran leader of the staff right now, looking ahead to his age 29 season next year. but he has only two years before free agency and this time next year we might well be speculating about the trade market for him over the winter. If you don't understand that comment you will before I get out of the top five prospects.
Brett Cecil, while suffering the occasional hiccup (as he did Friday night vs. the Rays) has also convinced most observers he has top of the rotation potential.
As we look ahead to 2011, one of the foremost questions will be "Who's gonna be the #5?" the consensus, of course, is that before the season is over, the #1 pitching prospect in the season will be taking that turn regularly. but it's no sure thing he'll break camp there, for a variety of reasons. in the mean time, there are not a few things the Jays have to sort out. such as:
Jesse Litsch: will he be healthy next spring, and will he be effective enough to cling to the spot he once held?
Scott Richmond: Healthy again, and dominant as he worked his way back through the minors this year. but on the wrong side of 30.
Shawn Hill: Likewise, not a "young gun" but a well regarded talent when healthy - which he hasn't been much. I have a hunch the Jays would like to see him fill that role and build trade value before Drabek forces his way in.
Dustin McGowan: one assumes that even with renewed health he won't be major league ready without some time in the minors.
Brad Mills: will be discussed on this list below, will be in the ST mix.
Marc Rzepczynski: not technically a rookie, but for all practical purposes, he's still a prospect. however, for the sake of not confusing the issue I'll give him his due here before getting to the formal list. Zep looked, in 2009, very much like a pitcher to be reckoned with. He drew comparisons in some quarters to pitchers as good as Brandon Webb. but a ST injury derailed his course to the 2010 rotation and control issues have plagued him the entire season. if Zep pitched well enough to win the #5 spot, he has the ability to make it very difficult for the Jays to make a spot for Drabek (absent injury of course) - but there's absolutely no way to predict which Zep shows up next spring. If he were still a rookie, I'd rank him probably about 7th or 8th on the upcoming list. If he is on, he's a not inconsiderable talent.
Clearly, the Jays are not under any pressure to rush a prospect into the 2011 rotation. On the contrary, some of those guys will be back in AAA, some will be in a bullpen somewhere, some may even be out of the organization by opening day. The cliche is you can never have too much pitching but the Jays appear to be trying their best to test the truth of that bromide.
Now, on to the list:
(ages as of April 1, 2011)
1. Kyle Drabek (23) RH - Over the course of the season, the amount of praise that's been directed Drabek's way has continued to mount. While Jays coaches continue to speak cautiously about his readiness, few observers argue he's in need of much if any more development. There's a prevalent school of thought that there's no reason for Drabek to ever do anything in Vegas except take a gambling vacation. However, there are practical considerations which argue to the contrary.
First, there's the simple matter of sorting out, and getting value for, the half dozen lesser but more experienced candidates in front of him. Then, there's the reality that a proper delay adds another year to the time before the Jays have to anticipate his free agency . . . timed properly, it can also keep him from going to arbitration unnecessarily early. The rule of thumb for avoiding Super Two status is around 128 days or less of service time. But as more teams make that calculation, that number might well fall. If the team has these factors in mind, you can look for Drabek around the first of June. Once he arrives, the arguments can begin about which of the Jays young guns will have the best career because he'll belong in that conversation as much as Romero, Morrow, and Cecil will.
2. Zach Stewart (24) RH - Early in the season, Stewart struggled with control and mildly worried some observers when the F-Cats pulled him from the rotation briefly to address some mechanical issues. Whatever they did certainly worked out well. Over the last 18 starts of the season he posted a 2.52 ERA. The interesting thing here is that over that successful run, he still averaged 3.39 walks per 9 IP, which is down only marginally from the 3.95 rate he had in the early going. But he got better as the season wore on (that rate per 9 was down to 2.5 over his last eight starts) and he walked only 1 in 7 shutout innings in the playoffs against Trenton.
All this in a season in which he exceeded his previous career high in IP on the season by almost 37%.
While some are already advocating for Stewart to skip AAA, that's unwise. first, barring a trade or major injury, there's no rotation spot in Toronto for both he and Drabek. Second, he still only reached 143 IP and that would, in theory, have him running out of gas in the 170's or so next year. Long term it would pay the team well to not push him to a big increase in consecutive years. Which means staying in AAA where his innings can be managed. finally, unless you have to, there's no reason to break in two high profile rookies in the same year.
3. Henderson Alvarez - (20) RH - Alvarez (who turns 21 in mid-April) came out of the gate in 2010 better than any pitcher in the system, giving up only 1 earned run in four April starts. In mid-May Alvarez inexplicably got very hittable. and stayed that way. Batters had hit .207 off him in April and hit over .300 against him every month thereafter. In August the Jays shut him down for a while due to fatigue. I've seen nothing specific about what went wrong with him other than vague references to mechanics. But there's no indication anywhere that their opinion of him as a prospect has faded. it's worth remembering that being 20 years old in Hi-A is an accomplishment in itself. His star hasn't faded significantly yet. He'll likely repeat Dunedin next year.
4. Aaron Sanchez (18) RH - I promise you, you won't see Sanchez ranked this high on any other list of Jays' prospects, but my guess is the 2010 draftee will change that up shortly. He won't make the majors before college draftees like McGuire or Wojciechowski but all things being equal, he may well have a better career. Admittedly, I'm speaking from a relatively thin body of evidence here but I'm letting you know up front I'm playing a hunch here. But I'm not alone. The Jays scout who recommended they draft Sanchez was none other than Mel Queen, who is said to have reported "He may be the best I've seen, he's better than Carpenter." The Jays have the luxury of taking their time with him, so it might be four years before we're discussing how he fits into the major league rotation. but if he stays healthy, that day will likely come. My guess is he starts out in Auburn next year and earns a promotion to Lansing at some point.
5. Chad Jenkins (23) RH - At first glance, it would be easy to call 2010 a bit underwhelming for a #1 pick. It does indicate that threre's work to do, but your first full pro season split between lo and hi A ball is fairly challenging. Jenkins started off fairly well in Dunedin but got too hittable in July and August. Possibly, some of this had to do with having his IP ceiling pushed. By the end of June he'd matched his career high in college. At that point he had 14 walks and 72 strikeouts in 92 IP, thereafter those figures were 17, 34, and 49.1 which is a pretty steep drop off. Expect Jenkins to start 2011 back in Dunedin and move up (assuming he's ready) in conjunction with Drabek's ascension to the majors.
6. Deck McGuire (21) RH - The Jays first overall pick in 2011, he followed the recent trend of signing at the last minute and thereby costing himself an opportunity to log some professional innings in his draft year. That's an issue Anthopoulos and others plan to bring to the table when the next CBA is negotiated. McGuire is, in all likelihood, a slightly better clone of Chad Jenkins (slightly taller, not quite as thick, but both "big bodied" high endurance and pretty advanced guys) and this time next year will probably be ranked ahead of him. For now Jenkins having pitched reasonably in the pros give him an edge. Look for McGuire to follow Jenkins' footsteps next year, starting at Lansing and moving up to Dunedin mid-season.
7. Adonis Cardona (17) RH - Already fairly advanced for his age and experience, beyond that we don't know much about him except that he was reported to be, and paid like, a mid-to-upper first round draft pick if he'd been draft eligible. So this ranking is based on the presumption that's accurate. but he's a long way away.
8. Asher Wojciechowski (22) RH - listed as the same size physically as Jenkins, and considered just as advanced coming into the draft. There's probably as little difference between them as between Jenkins and McGuire. there's a nice redundancy between the three of them that safeguards the team against failure and injury. Expect him to make the Lansing roster out of ST.
9. Noah Syndergaard (18) RH - The dark horse draftee that no one saw coming that early, Syndergaard is not a low-talent "safe" pick. He's 6'5" and growing still. He came on strong over the course of his senior year and the Jays think they have a potential stud. He'll open the season either back in the GCL or, more likely, in the new Bluefield team's rotation.
10. Joel Carreno (24) RH - This is maybe my most uncertain ranking. Carreno has been, until this year, very much an under-the-radar guy in the Jays system, but he led the system in strikeouts in 2010. He got marginally more hittable this year, but the quantum leap in swing-and-miss pitches was eye catching. He was a bit old for Dunedin but not enough to dismiss his accomplishments, and I expect him to pitch opening day for New Hampshire.
11. Griffin Murphy (19) LH - Arguably the best LHP in the prep class in 2010, the 61st overall pick might also be the best LH prospect left in the Jays system (assuming we don't count Zep). The other obvious candidate would be Brad Mills, to whom Murphy is probably highly comparable. The only separation between them, for me, is that being seven years younger, Murphy has time to exceed that projection and Mills is nearing his ceiling.
12. Sam Dyson (22) RH - The Jays got a mild steal in Dyson as a 4th round pick, mostly because of a long medical history. Dyson has big stuff which projects to the middle of a major league rotation, but it's not quite as big as it once was. He's had surgery on BOTH shoulders, and twice on the elbow (but no TJ so far). if he gets back the lost velocity - and stays healthy - the Jays will look real good on that pick as he's fairly refined. But no one on this list is more likely to fall apart because of his health. For his age and development, he ought to start in Lansing if he's not crowded out.
13. Drew Hutchison (R) 20 - Some reviews of the Jays' 2009 draft suggested that they might have gotten a significant steal when the took the hard to sign Hutch in the 15th round and got his name on the dotted line. He did nothing this year to make anyone doubt that. Between Auburn and Lansing he posted a BAA against of a stingy .198, he struck out almost a batter an inning and had a better than 3:1 K:BB ratio. There's a distinct possibility he should be 2 or 3 spots higher on this list. At his age he'll surely be back in Lansing as part of what could be the best rotation in the Midwest League.
14. Brad Mills (26) LH - some would argue Mills over a few of the guys already listed, and a case can be made. The spread between #9 and #14 here is not dramatic. but a guy who's 26 is close to as good as he's going to be, and he's on the outside ultimately looking in at the Jays rotation. if dealt to a NL team with a forgiving park (say Florida) he could have a nice little career. with the Jays, his realistic goal is to be the guy who replaces Brian Tallet.
15. Justin Nicolino (18) LH - taken also in the second round, the difference between Murphy and Nicolino is the amount of projection needed to imagine their ceiling. Nicolino is 6'3" and listed going into the draft as only 160, so there's considerable physical projectability. Likewise, his stuff is relatively under-developed but scouts think that as he fills out his fastball could creep towards the mid-90's. Expect slow movement and possibly early stumbles from Nicolino, but the Jays can afford to be patient. Absolutely a GCL candidate to start.
16. Devy Estrada (18) RH - After turning in a dominant performance in the DSL at 16, Estrada largely repeated his work in the GCL as a seventeen year old. There are mixed opinion on how his stuff will play at higher levels but you have to notice the results so far. Probably advances to Bluefield in the spring.
17. Egan Smith (22) LH - The unheralded Smith spent most of the season in Lansing, and saw an otherwise respectable season disguised by a couple of forgettable early August starts. The jury is out on how much he succeeds at higher levels, he's so under-the-radar tat we seldom get much comment on how good a prospect he really is so I'm going completely off stats. If you see the Jays move him aggressively (albeit he should be at Duneidn to start the year) there might be something there. Otherwise he may project as an organizational soldier.
18. Casey Lawrence (23) RH Lawrence is one of those potential feel-good stories you like to root for a happy ending to (the most noteable example lately being Tim Collins). He was signed after the 2010 draft as an undrafted Free Agent, and went on to spank the NY-Penn league in ten dominant starts, before finishing the season with three respectable turns in Lansing. He'll complete the Lansing five as the season begins in April, and time will tell how long the Cinderella story will last.
19. Bobby Bell (25) RH - Bell brought a record of unbroken pro success into the 2010 season. First as a reliever and then as a mid-season addition to the Dunedin rotation in 2009, Bell was masterful. But repeated injuries robbed Bell of any positive takeaway from the 2010 season. His ultimate future is in the 'pen probably, if for no other reason than the depth chart - but he's likely to stay a starter next season as he tries to find his previous magic.
20. Jo-Jo Reyes (26) LH - Reyes has a year's service time in the majors so I'm breaking the rookie rule pattern here, but since he's not likely to be a realistic candidate to break camp with the Jays, and given his age, I think it's ok to consider him a "prospect" for the purposes of this discussion. After coming over from the Braves in the Escobar deal, he had two starts for the F-Cats - one brilliant and one forgettable, before landing on the DL for the rest of the season. As is always the case, one needs to be in the CIA to find out the nature of such injuries and it's withut that knowledge I'm forced to comment. Reyes was rushed to the Majors by the age of 22 after barely 300 (very good) minor league innings. but he didn't pitch well in the majors and the Braves shuttled him back and forth for a couple of largely forgettable seasons. but a case could be made that in the right circumstances he'd be as good or better than Mills, and if he came to ST healthy next year, don't be completely stunned if he comes from the back of the pack to contend for that fifth starter job.
Ten other guys to keep an eye on: Bobby Ray, Luis Perez, Daniel Webb, Andrew Liebel, Mitch Taylor, Misaul Diaz, Jesse Hernandez, Sean Nolin, Nick Purdy, Myles Jaye.
There are a few other, even darker horses (guys like Ray Gonzalez and Chuck Huggins and even Randy Boone) but given the quality of the system, there's not a lot of room for such guys to break through here. The next few years will be fascinating times.
And that's on top of eight or nine experienced guys who are no longer prospects.
In fact, one of the more interesting stories over the next, say, three seasons is going to be how the Jays sort through the reality that they have more than five guys who have every promise of being excellent major league pitchers in 2012 or 2013.
Looking over the established major league foursome, one guy who's very secure right now is recently extended Ricky Romero. Barring injury he's going to be out there every five days for the foreseeable future.
Behind him is Brandon Morrow. Morrow has three more years under team control and showed enough progress this year to give Jays' management and fans visions of Cy young level dominance.
Then there's Shaun Marcum. He's the veteran leader of the staff right now, looking ahead to his age 29 season next year. but he has only two years before free agency and this time next year we might well be speculating about the trade market for him over the winter. If you don't understand that comment you will before I get out of the top five prospects.
Brett Cecil, while suffering the occasional hiccup (as he did Friday night vs. the Rays) has also convinced most observers he has top of the rotation potential.
As we look ahead to 2011, one of the foremost questions will be "Who's gonna be the #5?" the consensus, of course, is that before the season is over, the #1 pitching prospect in the season will be taking that turn regularly. but it's no sure thing he'll break camp there, for a variety of reasons. in the mean time, there are not a few things the Jays have to sort out. such as:
Jesse Litsch: will he be healthy next spring, and will he be effective enough to cling to the spot he once held?
Scott Richmond: Healthy again, and dominant as he worked his way back through the minors this year. but on the wrong side of 30.
Shawn Hill: Likewise, not a "young gun" but a well regarded talent when healthy - which he hasn't been much. I have a hunch the Jays would like to see him fill that role and build trade value before Drabek forces his way in.
Dustin McGowan: one assumes that even with renewed health he won't be major league ready without some time in the minors.
Brad Mills: will be discussed on this list below, will be in the ST mix.
Marc Rzepczynski: not technically a rookie, but for all practical purposes, he's still a prospect. however, for the sake of not confusing the issue I'll give him his due here before getting to the formal list. Zep looked, in 2009, very much like a pitcher to be reckoned with. He drew comparisons in some quarters to pitchers as good as Brandon Webb. but a ST injury derailed his course to the 2010 rotation and control issues have plagued him the entire season. if Zep pitched well enough to win the #5 spot, he has the ability to make it very difficult for the Jays to make a spot for Drabek (absent injury of course) - but there's absolutely no way to predict which Zep shows up next spring. If he were still a rookie, I'd rank him probably about 7th or 8th on the upcoming list. If he is on, he's a not inconsiderable talent.
Clearly, the Jays are not under any pressure to rush a prospect into the 2011 rotation. On the contrary, some of those guys will be back in AAA, some will be in a bullpen somewhere, some may even be out of the organization by opening day. The cliche is you can never have too much pitching but the Jays appear to be trying their best to test the truth of that bromide.
Now, on to the list:
(ages as of April 1, 2011)
1. Kyle Drabek (23) RH - Over the course of the season, the amount of praise that's been directed Drabek's way has continued to mount. While Jays coaches continue to speak cautiously about his readiness, few observers argue he's in need of much if any more development. There's a prevalent school of thought that there's no reason for Drabek to ever do anything in Vegas except take a gambling vacation. However, there are practical considerations which argue to the contrary.
First, there's the simple matter of sorting out, and getting value for, the half dozen lesser but more experienced candidates in front of him. Then, there's the reality that a proper delay adds another year to the time before the Jays have to anticipate his free agency . . . timed properly, it can also keep him from going to arbitration unnecessarily early. The rule of thumb for avoiding Super Two status is around 128 days or less of service time. But as more teams make that calculation, that number might well fall. If the team has these factors in mind, you can look for Drabek around the first of June. Once he arrives, the arguments can begin about which of the Jays young guns will have the best career because he'll belong in that conversation as much as Romero, Morrow, and Cecil will.
2. Zach Stewart (24) RH - Early in the season, Stewart struggled with control and mildly worried some observers when the F-Cats pulled him from the rotation briefly to address some mechanical issues. Whatever they did certainly worked out well. Over the last 18 starts of the season he posted a 2.52 ERA. The interesting thing here is that over that successful run, he still averaged 3.39 walks per 9 IP, which is down only marginally from the 3.95 rate he had in the early going. But he got better as the season wore on (that rate per 9 was down to 2.5 over his last eight starts) and he walked only 1 in 7 shutout innings in the playoffs against Trenton.
All this in a season in which he exceeded his previous career high in IP on the season by almost 37%.
While some are already advocating for Stewart to skip AAA, that's unwise. first, barring a trade or major injury, there's no rotation spot in Toronto for both he and Drabek. Second, he still only reached 143 IP and that would, in theory, have him running out of gas in the 170's or so next year. Long term it would pay the team well to not push him to a big increase in consecutive years. Which means staying in AAA where his innings can be managed. finally, unless you have to, there's no reason to break in two high profile rookies in the same year.
3. Henderson Alvarez - (20) RH - Alvarez (who turns 21 in mid-April) came out of the gate in 2010 better than any pitcher in the system, giving up only 1 earned run in four April starts. In mid-May Alvarez inexplicably got very hittable. and stayed that way. Batters had hit .207 off him in April and hit over .300 against him every month thereafter. In August the Jays shut him down for a while due to fatigue. I've seen nothing specific about what went wrong with him other than vague references to mechanics. But there's no indication anywhere that their opinion of him as a prospect has faded. it's worth remembering that being 20 years old in Hi-A is an accomplishment in itself. His star hasn't faded significantly yet. He'll likely repeat Dunedin next year.
4. Aaron Sanchez (18) RH - I promise you, you won't see Sanchez ranked this high on any other list of Jays' prospects, but my guess is the 2010 draftee will change that up shortly. He won't make the majors before college draftees like McGuire or Wojciechowski but all things being equal, he may well have a better career. Admittedly, I'm speaking from a relatively thin body of evidence here but I'm letting you know up front I'm playing a hunch here. But I'm not alone. The Jays scout who recommended they draft Sanchez was none other than Mel Queen, who is said to have reported "He may be the best I've seen, he's better than Carpenter." The Jays have the luxury of taking their time with him, so it might be four years before we're discussing how he fits into the major league rotation. but if he stays healthy, that day will likely come. My guess is he starts out in Auburn next year and earns a promotion to Lansing at some point.
5. Chad Jenkins (23) RH - At first glance, it would be easy to call 2010 a bit underwhelming for a #1 pick. It does indicate that threre's work to do, but your first full pro season split between lo and hi A ball is fairly challenging. Jenkins started off fairly well in Dunedin but got too hittable in July and August. Possibly, some of this had to do with having his IP ceiling pushed. By the end of June he'd matched his career high in college. At that point he had 14 walks and 72 strikeouts in 92 IP, thereafter those figures were 17, 34, and 49.1 which is a pretty steep drop off. Expect Jenkins to start 2011 back in Dunedin and move up (assuming he's ready) in conjunction with Drabek's ascension to the majors.
6. Deck McGuire (21) RH - The Jays first overall pick in 2011, he followed the recent trend of signing at the last minute and thereby costing himself an opportunity to log some professional innings in his draft year. That's an issue Anthopoulos and others plan to bring to the table when the next CBA is negotiated. McGuire is, in all likelihood, a slightly better clone of Chad Jenkins (slightly taller, not quite as thick, but both "big bodied" high endurance and pretty advanced guys) and this time next year will probably be ranked ahead of him. For now Jenkins having pitched reasonably in the pros give him an edge. Look for McGuire to follow Jenkins' footsteps next year, starting at Lansing and moving up to Dunedin mid-season.
7. Adonis Cardona (17) RH - Already fairly advanced for his age and experience, beyond that we don't know much about him except that he was reported to be, and paid like, a mid-to-upper first round draft pick if he'd been draft eligible. So this ranking is based on the presumption that's accurate. but he's a long way away.
8. Asher Wojciechowski (22) RH - listed as the same size physically as Jenkins, and considered just as advanced coming into the draft. There's probably as little difference between them as between Jenkins and McGuire. there's a nice redundancy between the three of them that safeguards the team against failure and injury. Expect him to make the Lansing roster out of ST.
9. Noah Syndergaard (18) RH - The dark horse draftee that no one saw coming that early, Syndergaard is not a low-talent "safe" pick. He's 6'5" and growing still. He came on strong over the course of his senior year and the Jays think they have a potential stud. He'll open the season either back in the GCL or, more likely, in the new Bluefield team's rotation.
10. Joel Carreno (24) RH - This is maybe my most uncertain ranking. Carreno has been, until this year, very much an under-the-radar guy in the Jays system, but he led the system in strikeouts in 2010. He got marginally more hittable this year, but the quantum leap in swing-and-miss pitches was eye catching. He was a bit old for Dunedin but not enough to dismiss his accomplishments, and I expect him to pitch opening day for New Hampshire.
11. Griffin Murphy (19) LH - Arguably the best LHP in the prep class in 2010, the 61st overall pick might also be the best LH prospect left in the Jays system (assuming we don't count Zep). The other obvious candidate would be Brad Mills, to whom Murphy is probably highly comparable. The only separation between them, for me, is that being seven years younger, Murphy has time to exceed that projection and Mills is nearing his ceiling.
12. Sam Dyson (22) RH - The Jays got a mild steal in Dyson as a 4th round pick, mostly because of a long medical history. Dyson has big stuff which projects to the middle of a major league rotation, but it's not quite as big as it once was. He's had surgery on BOTH shoulders, and twice on the elbow (but no TJ so far). if he gets back the lost velocity - and stays healthy - the Jays will look real good on that pick as he's fairly refined. But no one on this list is more likely to fall apart because of his health. For his age and development, he ought to start in Lansing if he's not crowded out.
13. Drew Hutchison (R) 20 - Some reviews of the Jays' 2009 draft suggested that they might have gotten a significant steal when the took the hard to sign Hutch in the 15th round and got his name on the dotted line. He did nothing this year to make anyone doubt that. Between Auburn and Lansing he posted a BAA against of a stingy .198, he struck out almost a batter an inning and had a better than 3:1 K:BB ratio. There's a distinct possibility he should be 2 or 3 spots higher on this list. At his age he'll surely be back in Lansing as part of what could be the best rotation in the Midwest League.
14. Brad Mills (26) LH - some would argue Mills over a few of the guys already listed, and a case can be made. The spread between #9 and #14 here is not dramatic. but a guy who's 26 is close to as good as he's going to be, and he's on the outside ultimately looking in at the Jays rotation. if dealt to a NL team with a forgiving park (say Florida) he could have a nice little career. with the Jays, his realistic goal is to be the guy who replaces Brian Tallet.
15. Justin Nicolino (18) LH - taken also in the second round, the difference between Murphy and Nicolino is the amount of projection needed to imagine their ceiling. Nicolino is 6'3" and listed going into the draft as only 160, so there's considerable physical projectability. Likewise, his stuff is relatively under-developed but scouts think that as he fills out his fastball could creep towards the mid-90's. Expect slow movement and possibly early stumbles from Nicolino, but the Jays can afford to be patient. Absolutely a GCL candidate to start.
16. Devy Estrada (18) RH - After turning in a dominant performance in the DSL at 16, Estrada largely repeated his work in the GCL as a seventeen year old. There are mixed opinion on how his stuff will play at higher levels but you have to notice the results so far. Probably advances to Bluefield in the spring.
17. Egan Smith (22) LH - The unheralded Smith spent most of the season in Lansing, and saw an otherwise respectable season disguised by a couple of forgettable early August starts. The jury is out on how much he succeeds at higher levels, he's so under-the-radar tat we seldom get much comment on how good a prospect he really is so I'm going completely off stats. If you see the Jays move him aggressively (albeit he should be at Duneidn to start the year) there might be something there. Otherwise he may project as an organizational soldier.
18. Casey Lawrence (23) RH Lawrence is one of those potential feel-good stories you like to root for a happy ending to (the most noteable example lately being Tim Collins). He was signed after the 2010 draft as an undrafted Free Agent, and went on to spank the NY-Penn league in ten dominant starts, before finishing the season with three respectable turns in Lansing. He'll complete the Lansing five as the season begins in April, and time will tell how long the Cinderella story will last.
19. Bobby Bell (25) RH - Bell brought a record of unbroken pro success into the 2010 season. First as a reliever and then as a mid-season addition to the Dunedin rotation in 2009, Bell was masterful. But repeated injuries robbed Bell of any positive takeaway from the 2010 season. His ultimate future is in the 'pen probably, if for no other reason than the depth chart - but he's likely to stay a starter next season as he tries to find his previous magic.
20. Jo-Jo Reyes (26) LH - Reyes has a year's service time in the majors so I'm breaking the rookie rule pattern here, but since he's not likely to be a realistic candidate to break camp with the Jays, and given his age, I think it's ok to consider him a "prospect" for the purposes of this discussion. After coming over from the Braves in the Escobar deal, he had two starts for the F-Cats - one brilliant and one forgettable, before landing on the DL for the rest of the season. As is always the case, one needs to be in the CIA to find out the nature of such injuries and it's withut that knowledge I'm forced to comment. Reyes was rushed to the Majors by the age of 22 after barely 300 (very good) minor league innings. but he didn't pitch well in the majors and the Braves shuttled him back and forth for a couple of largely forgettable seasons. but a case could be made that in the right circumstances he'd be as good or better than Mills, and if he came to ST healthy next year, don't be completely stunned if he comes from the back of the pack to contend for that fifth starter job.
Ten other guys to keep an eye on: Bobby Ray, Luis Perez, Daniel Webb, Andrew Liebel, Mitch Taylor, Misaul Diaz, Jesse Hernandez, Sean Nolin, Nick Purdy, Myles Jaye.
There are a few other, even darker horses (guys like Ray Gonzalez and Chuck Huggins and even Randy Boone) but given the quality of the system, there's not a lot of room for such guys to break through here. The next few years will be fascinating times.
Monday, 6 September 2010
Season's End
Not the major league season, of course, but today marked the end of the regular season for the minor leagues. Two Toronto affiliates qualified for the playoffs - AA New Hampshire, and Hi-A Dunedin.
The AA playoffs start Wednesday against Yankee affiliate Trenton (and the Yankees, showing a deep respect for fair play, are sending Andy Petitte to "rehab" for Trenton on Thursday) with Kyle Drabek presumably starting the first game in a best of five series with the winner moving on to another best of five for the EL championship.
Dunedin also takes on a Yankees' farm club when they begin a best of three series against Tampa on Tuesday.
But of course, beyond that, my attention immediately turns to the annual off-season Positional Farm Reports, and top prospect rankings. Rest assured these are coming in short order. Before I'm done I'll take at least passing notice of no less than 70 players, including over 30 pitchers. I'll give the playoffs a decent respect before I start posting those, however.
If you hadn't noticed already, the Jays have recalled from AAA Las Vegas Jarrett Hoffpauir, Josh Roenicke, Sawn Hill, Bobby Ray, and Rommie Lewis. Zep has been moved up to start Wednesday on 3 days rest (likely supplanted by Ray in a tandem effort) and Hill will start Thursday (and likely subsequently in Morrow's turn.
It's still not announced what the near future holds for Scott Richmond and Brad Mills.
The AA playoffs start Wednesday against Yankee affiliate Trenton (and the Yankees, showing a deep respect for fair play, are sending Andy Petitte to "rehab" for Trenton on Thursday) with Kyle Drabek presumably starting the first game in a best of five series with the winner moving on to another best of five for the EL championship.
Dunedin also takes on a Yankees' farm club when they begin a best of three series against Tampa on Tuesday.
But of course, beyond that, my attention immediately turns to the annual off-season Positional Farm Reports, and top prospect rankings. Rest assured these are coming in short order. Before I'm done I'll take at least passing notice of no less than 70 players, including over 30 pitchers. I'll give the playoffs a decent respect before I start posting those, however.
If you hadn't noticed already, the Jays have recalled from AAA Las Vegas Jarrett Hoffpauir, Josh Roenicke, Sawn Hill, Bobby Ray, and Rommie Lewis. Zep has been moved up to start Wednesday on 3 days rest (likely supplanted by Ray in a tandem effort) and Hill will start Thursday (and likely subsequently in Morrow's turn.
It's still not announced what the near future holds for Scott Richmond and Brad Mills.
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