A few things on my mind tonight.
Tomorrow at midnight, 40 man rosters have to be set to protect young players frm the Rule 5 draft. Among those who need to be protected if the jays don't want to risk losing them are the following (It's possible I don't have everyone, particularly among non-drafteee signings):
Adam Loewen
Brian Jeroloman
Alan Farina
Brad Emaus
Darin Mastroianni
Moises Sierra
Joel Carreno
Henderson Alvarez
That's eight candidates (that I've identified) and there are eight open spots on the 40 man roster. If you are wondering why someone like Shawn Hill was dropped, there's your answer. also, given that there's always the potential for free agent signings or trades to go down, some current roster members are still potential cuts (looking at you Luis Perez).
We'll find out soon which of these guys, if any, will be exposed (My guess is they will gamble on Jeroloman and Farina and protect the rest).
On another subject, there's much speculation about Justin Upton. I won't wax verbose about the idea except to say that very much approve of pursuing that possibility. Of course it's possible to overpay, but within reason - you have to try.
One final note: I don't wish to make a habit of cross-pollinating my blogs, but this being a special occasion - I'm go9ing to make an exception tonight. If you only ever read one example of my other blog - make it this one.
Thursday, 18 November 2010
Wednesday, 17 November 2010
Assurance
By now you know - Farquhar and Magnuson for Rajai Davis.
This sort of thing is easy to over-analyze because we are so early in the off-season that the music is still playing and we don't begin to know who will end up in what seats. on the most basic level, we dealt a couple of guys who were, at best, n the fringes of the top 30 on anyone's list. I find Farquhar intriguing but he's not a rare talent. Mags is a fungible part, even if he hits his ceiling. So there's no real loss, per se. On the other hand Davis is 30 years old, and other than being a very fast and very efficient baserunner, he doesn't impress you with his offense. He a competent to good defender in CF, and can play all three positions. He's an almost ideal 4th outfielder, which will likely be his role. if he starts, he's gonna provoke Otis Nixon flashbacks.
There are other side points to note - does this make Lewis a sure bet to be out of town within the next couple of weeks? - would Davis have been non-tendered by the A's? could he be non-tendered by the Jays? - Would they seriously consider moving Wells out of CF for a gy like this (answer: very doubtful)? and does that mean Bautista goes to 3B if he does (answer: almost certainly)?
But honestly, it's useless to get to strident right now. When mid-February rolls around we can look at all the moves as a set ad have a better idea. in the mean-time, Davis gives us some assurance against being caught with our pants on the ground in a few different ways.
Meanwhile, we could address a lot of this if we'd just go out and get Justin Upton!
This sort of thing is easy to over-analyze because we are so early in the off-season that the music is still playing and we don't begin to know who will end up in what seats. on the most basic level, we dealt a couple of guys who were, at best, n the fringes of the top 30 on anyone's list. I find Farquhar intriguing but he's not a rare talent. Mags is a fungible part, even if he hits his ceiling. So there's no real loss, per se. On the other hand Davis is 30 years old, and other than being a very fast and very efficient baserunner, he doesn't impress you with his offense. He a competent to good defender in CF, and can play all three positions. He's an almost ideal 4th outfielder, which will likely be his role. if he starts, he's gonna provoke Otis Nixon flashbacks.
There are other side points to note - does this make Lewis a sure bet to be out of town within the next couple of weeks? - would Davis have been non-tendered by the A's? could he be non-tendered by the Jays? - Would they seriously consider moving Wells out of CF for a gy like this (answer: very doubtful)? and does that mean Bautista goes to 3B if he does (answer: almost certainly)?
But honestly, it's useless to get to strident right now. When mid-February rolls around we can look at all the moves as a set ad have a better idea. in the mean-time, Davis gives us some assurance against being caught with our pants on the ground in a few different ways.
Meanwhile, we could address a lot of this if we'd just go out and get Justin Upton!
Sunday, 14 November 2010
Obligatory Comments
I've long since abandoned the illusion that you are likely to get your NEWS from this site when something happens. If you are an aware Jays fan you know who to follow on Twitter, you know about MLBTR, and so forth. So I do not rush to the keyboard to comment on every roster move. Often, I can speak to a point better with a day or two to reflect and digest a number of other reactions and opinions and most of all, to hear what the team personnel have to say about it.
After a couple of days though, there's been no real new information coming from the team regarding the roster moves this week. So, before the story gets too cold, or trumped by a newer one, my reactions are these-
No one really is worried about Wise, right? He did reasonable work as a fourth outfielder but there are so many options for that job it would be exhausting to discuss them all. As for Brian Tallet, YES he was aces against LH hitting, and yes, contrary to some comments I've seen, the $2 mil-ish he'd be due to make if he'd stayed is not out of line for that skill set, BUT . . .
There are a number of ways to fill that need, from in-house options like Carlson, Mills, and Zep to trades to free agents to even bringing Tallet back at a lower price. A lot of people have a low opinion of Tallet right now but that has much more to do with his having been pushed beyond his competency level the last couple of years than it does his not having any value at all.
As for Encarnacion, one must admit up front that we don't have all the information available to Alex & Co. It has been hinted at in the media and inferred by what we can observe that there are . . . personality issues involved. The sort of things that are sometimes referred to as "difficult to coach." Such things are not spoken of by wise front office people in public but they no doubt factor into decision making. That's not to say that EE is a "cancer" or any such thing, just maybe stubborn. Jose Bautista has admitted in interviews that he took a long time to accept that his swing needed to change. It happens.
More crucial was the problem of where he plays defensively. If he had stayed with the Jays, he'd have pretty much had to have been the DH. the $6 mil or so he would have made to do that might not have been too much, but the dent he puts in the team's flexibility if you put him down for that role is huge.The Jays can get similar offense from a new player, almost certainly for less money, and they don't have to have their hands tied before even the GM meetings to do that.
It's too tempting, when addressing this subject, speculate about the future of 3B. I can't pass up the opportunity.
Stating the obvious - Bautista or Hill might end up there, depending on the potential to import an outfielder or second baseman - preferably one with top-of-the-order offensive skills. This I've discussed before and will again, but laying that aside . . .
The field of potential acquisitions at 3B is not deep, but is possessed of some intriguing names, of which I submit these four names for consideration (all rumored as potentially available according to MLBTR)
4. Dan Uggla: Oldest player on this list, most reliable, and most expensive to acquire and to pay. Down side is that he's only under team control for one more season, and he's nothing like a lead-off option (but none of these suggestions are). You'd have to be REAL confident you could extend him if you were going to make a run at him.
EDIT: I made a comment here about his OBP but it was in error - looked at the wrong column or something.
3. Alex Gordon: Often discussed on Jays blogs and forums, and opinions are sharply divided. I confess I've been obsessed with Gordon since his college days so my objectivity suffers. It is rightly observed his last two season have been a mess, but there's also a solid possibility that the Royals created that mess. The upside is that Gordon is a hitting version of Brandon Morrow, the downside is that he's just another of those high draft picks who failed to live up to the clippings.
He did have a very solid season in 2008 at age 24, so the foundation is or was there. In my opinion, the potential upside in acquiring him for what would be presumably a reasonable price (Mills and Sierra, for instance?) and hoping that a change of scenery and coaching unlocks his former talent is worthwhile.
2. Gordon Beckham: I'm a bit shocked to hear that the White Sox might listen here, and in no position to speculate as to the cost to acquire him, but the availability can't be ignored. He was a more-or-less competent 3B in 2009 with above average offense at age 22 - and that after less than half a season in the minors. At first glance, it would appear he slumped badly in his sophomore year - but a closer examination reveals something quite interesting: From July 9 through the end of the season, his OPS was .911 in 1/3 of a season's worth of at-bats. I cannot say, of course, with any authority whether or not there is a big negative we can't see. But given what I can see, I'd pay and pay pretty handsomely to install Beckham at 3B for the Jays for the next 4 or more years. Kenny Williams loves to deal, hopefully the Jays can find something he finds irresistible. Also here, if you think the D would be better with Hill at 3B and Beckham at 2B, you could do that too.
1. Pablo Sandoval: One of the best hitters in the NL in 2009, he dropped off massively in 2010 while surounded by questions about his conditioning and work ethic. He was lightly used in the playoffs as a result and while it's unclear whether he is actually available, the dilligent GM (and Alex is nothing if not that) will certainly seek to take advantage of the reversals to see if he can be obtained. it's not without risk - you'd have to be convinced you could get him back to his 2009 levels. but there's obviously something there for which to strive.
One other thought, if you really want to light it up - trade for Sandoval for 1B and Beckham for 3B. That will take a big bite out of the farm system but you'd potentially make a huge improvement in the major league club
After a couple of days though, there's been no real new information coming from the team regarding the roster moves this week. So, before the story gets too cold, or trumped by a newer one, my reactions are these-
No one really is worried about Wise, right? He did reasonable work as a fourth outfielder but there are so many options for that job it would be exhausting to discuss them all. As for Brian Tallet, YES he was aces against LH hitting, and yes, contrary to some comments I've seen, the $2 mil-ish he'd be due to make if he'd stayed is not out of line for that skill set, BUT . . .
There are a number of ways to fill that need, from in-house options like Carlson, Mills, and Zep to trades to free agents to even bringing Tallet back at a lower price. A lot of people have a low opinion of Tallet right now but that has much more to do with his having been pushed beyond his competency level the last couple of years than it does his not having any value at all.
As for Encarnacion, one must admit up front that we don't have all the information available to Alex & Co. It has been hinted at in the media and inferred by what we can observe that there are . . . personality issues involved. The sort of things that are sometimes referred to as "difficult to coach." Such things are not spoken of by wise front office people in public but they no doubt factor into decision making. That's not to say that EE is a "cancer" or any such thing, just maybe stubborn. Jose Bautista has admitted in interviews that he took a long time to accept that his swing needed to change. It happens.
More crucial was the problem of where he plays defensively. If he had stayed with the Jays, he'd have pretty much had to have been the DH. the $6 mil or so he would have made to do that might not have been too much, but the dent he puts in the team's flexibility if you put him down for that role is huge.The Jays can get similar offense from a new player, almost certainly for less money, and they don't have to have their hands tied before even the GM meetings to do that.
It's too tempting, when addressing this subject, speculate about the future of 3B. I can't pass up the opportunity.
Stating the obvious - Bautista or Hill might end up there, depending on the potential to import an outfielder or second baseman - preferably one with top-of-the-order offensive skills. This I've discussed before and will again, but laying that aside . . .
The field of potential acquisitions at 3B is not deep, but is possessed of some intriguing names, of which I submit these four names for consideration (all rumored as potentially available according to MLBTR)
4. Dan Uggla: Oldest player on this list, most reliable, and most expensive to acquire and to pay. Down side is that he's only under team control for one more season, and he's nothing like a lead-off option (but none of these suggestions are). You'd have to be REAL confident you could extend him if you were going to make a run at him.
EDIT: I made a comment here about his OBP but it was in error - looked at the wrong column or something.
3. Alex Gordon: Often discussed on Jays blogs and forums, and opinions are sharply divided. I confess I've been obsessed with Gordon since his college days so my objectivity suffers. It is rightly observed his last two season have been a mess, but there's also a solid possibility that the Royals created that mess. The upside is that Gordon is a hitting version of Brandon Morrow, the downside is that he's just another of those high draft picks who failed to live up to the clippings.
He did have a very solid season in 2008 at age 24, so the foundation is or was there. In my opinion, the potential upside in acquiring him for what would be presumably a reasonable price (Mills and Sierra, for instance?) and hoping that a change of scenery and coaching unlocks his former talent is worthwhile.
2. Gordon Beckham: I'm a bit shocked to hear that the White Sox might listen here, and in no position to speculate as to the cost to acquire him, but the availability can't be ignored. He was a more-or-less competent 3B in 2009 with above average offense at age 22 - and that after less than half a season in the minors. At first glance, it would appear he slumped badly in his sophomore year - but a closer examination reveals something quite interesting: From July 9 through the end of the season, his OPS was .911 in 1/3 of a season's worth of at-bats. I cannot say, of course, with any authority whether or not there is a big negative we can't see. But given what I can see, I'd pay and pay pretty handsomely to install Beckham at 3B for the Jays for the next 4 or more years. Kenny Williams loves to deal, hopefully the Jays can find something he finds irresistible. Also here, if you think the D would be better with Hill at 3B and Beckham at 2B, you could do that too.
1. Pablo Sandoval: One of the best hitters in the NL in 2009, he dropped off massively in 2010 while surounded by questions about his conditioning and work ethic. He was lightly used in the playoffs as a result and while it's unclear whether he is actually available, the dilligent GM (and Alex is nothing if not that) will certainly seek to take advantage of the reversals to see if he can be obtained. it's not without risk - you'd have to be convinced you could get him back to his 2009 levels. but there's obviously something there for which to strive.
One other thought, if you really want to light it up - trade for Sandoval for 1B and Beckham for 3B. That will take a big bite out of the farm system but you'd potentially make a huge improvement in the major league club
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
A modest proposal
We all know the Free Agent class is weak, particularly in terms of the thing the Jays need most - on base percentage. It is true that Alex has indicated he thinks the trade market might be more inviting but, alas, we can't begin to presume what he might pull out of his hat in that regard.
So let me suggest something that is a bit outside that box - Go after Tsuyoshi Nishioka. According to Tim Kurkjian, the 26 year old middle infielder from Japan will be posted this week.
So let me suggest something that is a bit outside that box - Go after Tsuyoshi Nishioka. According to Tim Kurkjian, the 26 year old middle infielder from Japan will be posted this week.
Nishioka won the Pacific League batting title this year with a .346 average. He scored 121 runs, stole 22 bases and had 206 hits, the most by a player in that league since Ichiro Suzuki in 1994. Nishioka, a switch-hitter, batted leadoff for the Marines and his team recently won the Japan Series.
"He is a good player, he is a talented kid," said ESPN analyst Bobby Valentine, who managed Nishioka in Japan. "If he had been a college kid four or five years ago, he would have been a first-round pick. He runs faster than a lot of people. He can get a hit. He can steal a base. He can bunt. He is still developing physically and mentally. And this year, he stayed healthy all year. He has style issues, positive and negative: he likes to be noticed. How he develops will depend on what team signs him."
Now, I'll go ahead and acknowledge that Fangraphs is only mildly impressed, but i think this might be a good place for AA to throw Rogers' financial muscle around and address a need. There's not a history of Japanese imports losing their batting eye in the U.S., just of seeing their power moderate. But we don't need power, we need a lead off hitter. Here we have a guy who's an excellent defender, with tremendous range (and a 2B arm) who gets on base at a high rate (.366 career, .423 in 2010) and has good speed and a taste for the spotlight. Sounds like an ideal top-of-the-order spark to me.
Newman (at Fangraphs) says he might be a "Ryan Theriot/Chine Figgins" type which is weird since Figgins is a wildly better player. But if you could get a 26 year old Figgins at a reasonable price, that's a fine acquisition.
Do this, and move Aaron Hill to 3B which in turn allows you to go Snider/Wells/Bautista in the OF and you have a better lineup and a noticeably better defense as well.
What's not to like?
***
On an unrelated note, I want to take advantage of the chance to nod in the direction of the coaching hires. I have to say that the announcment brought a big smile to my face - the only thing I can think of that would be better is word that Rick Langford will stay in the organization, either at Vegas or roving. Having Pat Hentgen on the major league staff is very happy-making. Wakamatsu bringing experience to the bench, and a great reputation to his special assignment as a coach to JPA is very good news, and Tory Louvello brings a great reputation as well. I venture to say we may now have the finest collection of coaches in the majors.
***
Also there was chatter today that a Boston writer includes the Blue Jays on a list of teams looking at Victor Martinez. My thoughts? First, not gonna happen - there's no way the jays pay what it will take to sign him AND give up a first round draft pick, the report is either wrong or AA is just doing due diligence. Second, I agree with that outcome. Martinez is a player primed to decline in value, IMO, and he's hoping to get a contract for 4 or more years. While it is true that he fits into an open spot on our roster (1B) and brings some value (the ability to catch if JPA flops horribly) that's a short term situat8ion and doesn't warrant a long term deal. Pass.
Friday, 5 November 2010
Baseball America's Top 10
By now, those of you paying attention have seen BA's Top 10 list, but here it is if you haven't:
My initial reactions . . .
McGuire at #2 surprises me - not sure if they think he's really good, or if it's just a deference to his draft position. Possibly some combination.
Stewart at #5 (instead of #2) is a mild surprise but reasonable.
Wojciechowski in the top 10, instead of Alvarez was totally unexpected.
Otherwise, It's probably much like most every top 10 that comes out this winter will look. The obvious questions all flow from the names not there: "what about Thames? What about Adeiny?" but I could tell you, and the BA writers said as much during the chat, that this isn't an illustration that the missing players are lacking, but that the system is deep enough to have more than 10 worthy prospects.
BA's write-up is jealously guarded for subscribers, as is the chat, but in very general terms here's what Nathan Rode had to say: they are really impressed with Drabek's curve and their 2014 projection lists him as a #1 starter ahead of Romero and Morrow; they really like McGuire's slider, he has a good change and his curve is his rawest pitch; Gose is described as the best defensive outfielder, and fasted baserunner but Marisnick is called the best athlete.
Travis d'Arnaud is described as the long-term answer at catcher, due to excellence on both side of the game which would presumably dictate position switches (or trades) for the other highly ranked catchers; Stewart was rated as having the best fastball, and though they agree with his continued development as a SP, they also project that they Jays will have enough better options by 2014 that he'll be the closer; Woj was said to have similar stuff to Stewart.
Sanchez was described as having a steadily improving fastball (touching 95 in instructionals) and the Jays are said to be even more excited about his ceiling now than when they drafted him.
Other players mentioned but not on the list include Brad Emaus being described as having the best strike-zone discipline I the system, and Drew Hutchison has the best control among the pitchers (on a side note, Pat Hentgen, in an interview at BluebirdBanter, spoke very highly of Hutch). Hechavarria was described as JUST missing the cut; Eric Thames also was a near miss, he was called very strong and expected to be an average LF (I wonder if there will be George Bell comparisons?).
When asked about Jenkins, Rode didn't respond with negatives - no reason to be concerned; he was asked about Sam Dyson and said he'd just had TJ surgery and would miss all of 2011 - I can't find a report of this elsewhere; Henderson Alvarez, he said, didn't miss as many bats as you'd like to see but given his age and level, that's likely part of the process - projects as mid-rotation starter still. Kellen Sweeney was highly praised ("really really good") but missed the top 10 because of system depth (my guess is he's in their top 20).
Rode also said on a couple of occasions that the Jays had arguably a Top 10 system, and that there was a lot of talent in the low minors which would stand them in good stead even when they graduated Drabek and JPA. The implication was that the system would be near the best in the majors for the next few years at least. In terms of looking at my own list, every player in my Top 20 got some kind of praise except AJ Jiminez, and the two top 10's had 8 players in common.
Speaking of prospects, John Sickels' Prospect list for the Jays should fall sometime in the next week, and he mentioned briefly yesterday that he saw Eric Thames in Arizona and had glowing praise for him (as has everyone except Kieth Law). Good days to be a prospect junkie!
| 1. | Kyle Drabek, rhp |
| 2. | Deck McGuire, rhp |
| 3. | Anthony Gose, of |
| 4. | Travis D'Arnaud, c |
| 5. | Zach Stewart, rhp |
| 6. | Asher Wojciechowski, rhp |
| 7. | J.P. Arencibia, c |
| 8. | Carlos Perez, c |
| 9. | Aaron Sanchez, rhp |
| 10. | Jake Marisnick, of |
My initial reactions . . .
McGuire at #2 surprises me - not sure if they think he's really good, or if it's just a deference to his draft position. Possibly some combination.
Stewart at #5 (instead of #2) is a mild surprise but reasonable.
Wojciechowski in the top 10, instead of Alvarez was totally unexpected.
Otherwise, It's probably much like most every top 10 that comes out this winter will look. The obvious questions all flow from the names not there: "what about Thames? What about Adeiny?" but I could tell you, and the BA writers said as much during the chat, that this isn't an illustration that the missing players are lacking, but that the system is deep enough to have more than 10 worthy prospects.
BA's write-up is jealously guarded for subscribers, as is the chat, but in very general terms here's what Nathan Rode had to say: they are really impressed with Drabek's curve and their 2014 projection lists him as a #1 starter ahead of Romero and Morrow; they really like McGuire's slider, he has a good change and his curve is his rawest pitch; Gose is described as the best defensive outfielder, and fasted baserunner but Marisnick is called the best athlete.
Travis d'Arnaud is described as the long-term answer at catcher, due to excellence on both side of the game which would presumably dictate position switches (or trades) for the other highly ranked catchers; Stewart was rated as having the best fastball, and though they agree with his continued development as a SP, they also project that they Jays will have enough better options by 2014 that he'll be the closer; Woj was said to have similar stuff to Stewart.
Sanchez was described as having a steadily improving fastball (touching 95 in instructionals) and the Jays are said to be even more excited about his ceiling now than when they drafted him.
Other players mentioned but not on the list include Brad Emaus being described as having the best strike-zone discipline I the system, and Drew Hutchison has the best control among the pitchers (on a side note, Pat Hentgen, in an interview at BluebirdBanter, spoke very highly of Hutch). Hechavarria was described as JUST missing the cut; Eric Thames also was a near miss, he was called very strong and expected to be an average LF (I wonder if there will be George Bell comparisons?).
When asked about Jenkins, Rode didn't respond with negatives - no reason to be concerned; he was asked about Sam Dyson and said he'd just had TJ surgery and would miss all of 2011 - I can't find a report of this elsewhere; Henderson Alvarez, he said, didn't miss as many bats as you'd like to see but given his age and level, that's likely part of the process - projects as mid-rotation starter still. Kellen Sweeney was highly praised ("really really good") but missed the top 10 because of system depth (my guess is he's in their top 20).
Rode also said on a couple of occasions that the Jays had arguably a Top 10 system, and that there was a lot of talent in the low minors which would stand them in good stead even when they graduated Drabek and JPA. The implication was that the system would be near the best in the majors for the next few years at least. In terms of looking at my own list, every player in my Top 20 got some kind of praise except AJ Jiminez, and the two top 10's had 8 players in common.
Speaking of prospects, John Sickels' Prospect list for the Jays should fall sometime in the next week, and he mentioned briefly yesterday that he saw Eric Thames in Arizona and had glowing praise for him (as has everyone except Kieth Law). Good days to be a prospect junkie!
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Major Announcment
To me it's major anyway, and no I'm not talking about Kevin Gregg's option.
This is, at a minimum, the most unexpected entry you'll ever read on this blog. I have debated for well over a year now whether or not I should ever write it, but the time has come to get off the fence and either do, or not do – so I've chosen to write it.
Many, if not all of you, are aware that early this year I was giving very serious consideration to closing up shop here. After the main part of the off-season activities were past, it seemed a reasonable time to make the break – especially given the end of the Halladay Era was an obvious transition point. In retrospect, I'm glad I didn't because the results of the 2010 season have re-energized my enthusiasm for the Blue Jays' future. Nevertheless, the issue I had then remains, and so either that solution must still be applied, or another one instead.
I am not, at this point, really willing to just shut it down and walk away – although the eventual fallout might lead to that (I'm not expecting that but it's possible). I do not want to make assumptions about my friends and readers that would have been wrong and unfair to make. However, this is a tremendously difficult thing to do. It is something which seems, on the surface, to be antithetical to the whole culture of sports fandom.
You might ask why I feel it's important to do – without drifting too far afield from the theme and purpose of this blog, I can't even begin to answer that question – all I can say to it is that unless you have gone through this situation, you don't have a frame of reference to properly appreciate why it's important.
So – I beg your indulgence to humor me a bit as I take care of a bit of business which has nothing to do with the Jays, or with baseball, but which for my personal state of mind needs to be done.
I've been writing this blog for, if memory serves, some four seasons now (with some partners in the first year) and been a fixture around various Jays related message boards for some years before that. The subject I'm discussing tonight predates all that by decades, in fact, it predates the first time I ever saw a baseball game. But for various reasons which it would serve no purpose to go into here, I felt it necessary to repress and conceal that matter. Just over two years ago, I ceased to do that.
*DEEP BREATH!*
I am transsexual. For one full year now I have been living full time as a female and I have adopted the name Tammy.
I hope that I may continue to be a part of the ongoing virtual conversation about the Blue Jays (though I do understand that it is difficult for any acquaintance, no matter how “virtual” to make the mental adjustment) but even if I find that's no longer possible, I had to speak up. One of the things that comes from spending so much of your life hiding your true face is that you develop an obsessive distaste for masks of any sort. I'd rather risk rejection than be false in any sense – even a mostly anonymous on-line persona. It is my hope that my worries in that regard are unfounded.
We'll see how it goes.
(One note – if anyone wishes to offer comments or questions they'd rather not post in public, write me at thesouthpaw.blog@gmail.com and if you want to know more, ask for the address to my transition blog)
Saturday, 30 October 2010
60 Names to Know for 2011
Wrapping up my pontifications on the Jays Farm System (for now) I conclude with The Massive overkill Top Prospect list. This will be a Top 60 List, but before I do it let me explain something – I KNOW that NO team ACTUALLY has 60 PROSPECTS. So I decided to call it “60 Names to Know” but for all intents and purposes, it's my Top Prospect list supplemented with a lot of other players I consider worthy of at least some degree of interest.
I further remind you that after the top 10 or 15, relative positions are not that important – being 21 or 23 doesn't matter much . . . being 21 instead of 31 does. Also, I'm constantly adjusting my list at this time of year and if you find that a couple of guys are reversed from where they were on the positional list, that's not a mistake but a reflection of an updated opinion. Because I commented so extensively on the Positional Lists, I'll try to keep my remarks here brief. The parenthesis indicate a guess at ETA under an “all things being equal” assumption (i.e. assuming no injuries, trades, etc which might alter the timeline)
- Kyle Drabek - RHP - (2010 – ready now, may not arrive for good 'til mid-season) – Could very easily break camp with Jays, depth of choices might push that back. Ace potential.
- Zach Stewart – RHP - (2011) – results last year very similar to Drabek, maybe not quite the ceiling but a lot closer than many think.
- J.P. Arencibia – C - (2010) – nothing left to prove in AAA. Opening day starter, barring a trade or injury. Looks very much like Buck 2.0 though maybe not in first year.
- Carlos Perez – C – (2015) – Probably better than JPA, Jays have luxury of taking time. Might switch positions depending. Might be #1 on this list a year from now.
- Adeiny Hechevarria – SS – (mid/late-2012) – Escobar gives Jays chance to be patient. Might end up a similar player in the majors.
- Anthony Gose – CF – (2014) – conservative schedule since he's said to be raw. Crawford type?
- Henderson Alvarez – RHP – (mid-2014) - Rough season, still quite young. As above, depth gives him plenty of time, but he's the kind of guy who could “click” and come faster.
- Aaron Sanchez – RHP – (mid-2015) – A LOT of positive buzz about the kid.
- Jake Marisnick – CF – (2015) – Very positive reports, May slide to RF if Gose develops as projected.
- Deck McGuire – RHP – (2014) – seems to be somewhat better regarded than Jenkins.
- Travis d'Arnaud – C – (late 2013) – Dropped some, more because of the nature of the injury (back) than because of the on field results of being hurt.
- Eric Thames – LF – (late 2011) – last three could be in any order – I'm a believer in his offensive potential.
- Chad Jenkins – RHP – (2014) – I think the late season fade was fatigue, but scouting reports have an unenthusiastic tone sometimes.
- Asher Wojciechowski – RHP – (2015) – might come faster but a lot of bodies to sift through in front of him. Physically a clone of Jenkins.
- Antonio Jimenez – C – (2014) – I like him, not a level below the three catchers in front of him – higher potential to bust.
- Adonis Cardona – RHP – (2017) – Paid like a first rounder, I'll rank him like one for now.
- Dicke Joe Thon – SS – (2016) – similar thinking, first round talent and pay. Henceforth I shall call him “DJ” just because I wish it.
- Noah Syndergaard – RHP – (2016) – I'm kind of skeptical of the sudden senior explosion but open minded.
- Drew Hutchenson – RHP – (2015) – Under some radars, and a lot of higher profile folks on the depth chart, but has a chance.
- Brad Emaus – 2B/3B – (2011) – Emaus is this low only because the ceiling is lower. I have a lot of confidence he'll reach it.
- Gustavo Pierre – SS – (late 2015) – Still very raw, but excellent tools
- Mosies Sierra – RF – (2014) – Might develop faster, but depth allows caution.
- Darin Mastroianni – CF – (late 2011) – might be 2012 before a roster spot opens, Brett Gardner type.
- Kevin Ahrens – 3B – (2014) – One last benefit of the doubt, based on good results after he stopped switch hitting.
- Griffin Murphy – LHP – (mid 2015) – Well regarded draftee, ranking based on reports.
- Kellen Sweeney – 3B – (2015) – same as Murphy, good results in small pro sample
- Adam Loewen – RF – (2012) – Team execs still speak highly, some possibility of move to 1B.
- Joel Carreno – RHP – (late 2012) – might be reliever in the majors.
- Sam Dyson – RHP – (2015) – great stuff, fragile. Potential as late inning reliever, as well as starter.
- David Cooper – 1B – (mid/late 2012) – much better in second half – illusion?
- Daniel Webb – RHP – (2016) – good stuff, raw. Likely to move slowly.
- Brian Jeroloman – C – (2012) – would be higher if he projected to hit at all in the majors.
- Marcus Kenect – RF – (2015) – well regarded hitter
- Brad Mills – LHP – (2011) – trade bait? That or the bullpen.
- Danny Farquhar – RHP – (late 2011) – this low because of his position. He's good.
- Trystan Magnuson – RHP – (late 2011) – Same comment as Farquhar.
- Alan Farina – RHP – (2012) – Ditto. Just a half year or so behind those two.
- Mike McDade – 1B – (maybe 2014 if at all) – More likely Calvin Pickering than Cecil Fielder
- Michael Crouse – RF – (2016) – Might take big jump up list if results continue.
- KC Hobson – 1B – (mid 2015) – well regarded by scouts and team.
- Justin Jackson – SS/2B – (maybe never, not before 2015) – might be running out of chances.
- Justin Nicolino – LHP – (2016) based on draft reports.
- Chris Hawkins – 3B – (2016) – less strike zone control than Sweeney.
- John Tolisano – IF/OF – (never) – lack of defensive home hurts.
- Mark Sobolewski – 3B – hasn't lived up to post-draft praise, but not a failure either.
- Gabriel Cenas – 3B – too young to predict outcome, bonus babies often fail.
- Devy Estrada – RHP – results might be an illusion, doesn't come up when system is praised.
- Bobby Bell – RHP (2013) – eventually a reliever, even if he starts now for the innings.
- Scott Campbell – 2B – can he get his health back?
- Casey Lawrence – RHP – non-drafted steal, or mirage?
- Ryan Goins – SS – didn't handle promotion to Dunedin well.
- Santiago Nessey – C – another very young bonus baby.
- Egan Smith – LHP – a lot of good results but unheralded.
- Sean Ochinko – C/3B – versitility, organizational awards, not a high ceiling.
- Yan Gomes – C – fringy major league guy at best unless he takes a leap.
- Nestor Molina – RHP – sleeper
- Mitchell Taylor – LHP – considered good draft choice
- Sean Nolin – LHP – Ditto.
- Myles Jaye – RHP – a few reports considered him a good value where he was drafted.
- Luis Perez – LHP – fringy lefty might sneak into bullpen role.
Also worth notice: Bobby Ray, Frank Gailey, Kyle Ginley, Dustin Antolin, Lance Durham. Include all the non-rookies who might be on the major league roster at some point next year and you have almost 100 players who might be worthy of the interest of a die-hard Jays-junkie. Please forgive any names misspelled. It's too late for me to cross-reference and proof them all.
Thursday, 28 October 2010
Options, we got options.
Not quite two weeks ago, The Man With the Golden Arm blogged his opinion (controversial in some quarters) over at 1Blue Jays Way that the Blue Jays needed to make it a top priority to sign a top shelf closer. He recommended either surrendering a first round pick to go after Rafiel Soriano (who IS very good) or trade for a similarly talented guy.
After having spent some time this fine evening looking over the list of free agent relief pitchers with a little help from Baseball Reference, I'm moved to argue that we can find a closer better than the one who is (hopefully) walking away and not do either of those things.
Let me give you a brief list of options, prefaced with Soriano's stat line for comparison.
Rafael Soriano: 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 57 K (age 31 next year)
Pretty damn good, right? Consider these:
1. Joaquin Benoit: 1.34 / 0.68 / 60.1 / 30 / 11 / 75 (33) - How do you like them apples? Benoit outpitched Soriano in each and every one of those categories. He won't cost you a first round pick and he almost certainly won't cost as many dollars.
2. Koji Uehara: 2.86 / 0.96 / 44 / 37 / 5 / 55 (36) - Hands up everyone who, upon reading that name, said "Who the hell?" Hands up everyone who already knew about that 11:1 K:BB ratio. right. I didn't either until after the season ended. This guy is WAY below the radar and if you want to scoop a guy up on the cheap, you have to look at him. This is the sort of guys the Yankees will want to grap for set up men, but one of them should respond well to the chance to close.
3. Takashi Saito: 2.83 / 1.07 / 54 / 41 / 17 / 59 (41) Speaking of Japanese imports, here's a slightly bigger gamble. First, he's going to be 41. Second, he hasn't closed in a few years, and his walk rate went up a bit in the one year in the AL East. BUT on the other hand, John Farrell has coached him before and if they had a good relationship, and if Farrell thinks he can do the job . . . Keep an eye on this one.
4. JJ Putz: 2.83 / 1.04 / 54 / 41 / 15 / 65 (34) - Putz was, in terms of results, basically Duane Ward in Seattle in '06 and '07. then injuries slowed him in '08 and crippled him in '09. Unlike Ward, however, injuries didn't kill his career and he was back to quality work this last season. like Saito, he has the experience of having been a closer and a good one.
5. Frank Francisco: 3.76 / 1.27 / 52.2 / 49 / 18 / 60 (31) - The Rangers closer before the phenomenal Feliz arrived, Francisco didn't really do anything to lose the job except not be a freak of nature. He's probably never going to be on the level of someone like Soriano, but he's noticeably better than Kevin Gregg.
It's a buyers market for closers. The Yankees pretty much HAVE to bring back Rivera, and Soriano has the name to command the big contract - maybe a return to the Braves, since they have the Wagner money to spend?
Beyond that, for the record, the other guys who will want to find a closer's job and might reasonably get one include Gregg, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and maybe even Scott Downs. That's 14 options (assuming Rivera re-signs and Hoffman is done) in a market that has, at most, eight or nine closer openings.
Add to that, most of the well-heeled teams have no real opening for a closer. The Yanks will try to sell some of these guys on set-up roles perhaps, and a younger guy might take that with the idea of trying to be Rivera's eventual successor. Honestly,they might talk Soriano into that, but other than the Yankees, the lure will be the chance to close - that combined with the fact that the Jays HAVE money to spend means there's no reason we can't get the guy we want.
For my dollars, it'd be tempting to sign both Benoit and Saito - the former to a 3 year deal (probably can't get him for less) ad the latter with one and a series of options (kinda like how the
Red Sox have been working Wakefield the last several years).
Heck, maybe get Randy Choate in here too just so he can stop killing the Jays.
I say all that with the stipulation that I think the in-house crew isn't nearly as worrisome as many like to describe it, but none of them are reliably going to be remotely as good as Benoit so let's get THAT done at least. if you go whole hog, you have something like this for your bullpen depth chart:
Closer: Benoit
Set Up: Saito and Choate
Middle Camp, Janssen, Purcey (Carlson, Buchholz, Roenicke)
Long: Zep (Richmond, Mills, Ray, Tallet if he's tendered)
I'd go to war with that crew.
After having spent some time this fine evening looking over the list of free agent relief pitchers with a little help from Baseball Reference, I'm moved to argue that we can find a closer better than the one who is (hopefully) walking away and not do either of those things.
Let me give you a brief list of options, prefaced with Soriano's stat line for comparison.
Rafael Soriano: 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 36 H, 14 BB, 57 K (age 31 next year)
Pretty damn good, right? Consider these:
1. Joaquin Benoit: 1.34 / 0.68 / 60.1 / 30 / 11 / 75 (33) - How do you like them apples? Benoit outpitched Soriano in each and every one of those categories. He won't cost you a first round pick and he almost certainly won't cost as many dollars.
2. Koji Uehara: 2.86 / 0.96 / 44 / 37 / 5 / 55 (36) - Hands up everyone who, upon reading that name, said "Who the hell?" Hands up everyone who already knew about that 11:1 K:BB ratio. right. I didn't either until after the season ended. This guy is WAY below the radar and if you want to scoop a guy up on the cheap, you have to look at him. This is the sort of guys the Yankees will want to grap for set up men, but one of them should respond well to the chance to close.
3. Takashi Saito: 2.83 / 1.07 / 54 / 41 / 17 / 59 (41) Speaking of Japanese imports, here's a slightly bigger gamble. First, he's going to be 41. Second, he hasn't closed in a few years, and his walk rate went up a bit in the one year in the AL East. BUT on the other hand, John Farrell has coached him before and if they had a good relationship, and if Farrell thinks he can do the job . . . Keep an eye on this one.
4. JJ Putz: 2.83 / 1.04 / 54 / 41 / 15 / 65 (34) - Putz was, in terms of results, basically Duane Ward in Seattle in '06 and '07. then injuries slowed him in '08 and crippled him in '09. Unlike Ward, however, injuries didn't kill his career and he was back to quality work this last season. like Saito, he has the experience of having been a closer and a good one.
5. Frank Francisco: 3.76 / 1.27 / 52.2 / 49 / 18 / 60 (31) - The Rangers closer before the phenomenal Feliz arrived, Francisco didn't really do anything to lose the job except not be a freak of nature. He's probably never going to be on the level of someone like Soriano, but he's noticeably better than Kevin Gregg.
It's a buyers market for closers. The Yankees pretty much HAVE to bring back Rivera, and Soriano has the name to command the big contract - maybe a return to the Braves, since they have the Wagner money to spend?
Beyond that, for the record, the other guys who will want to find a closer's job and might reasonably get one include Gregg, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and maybe even Scott Downs. That's 14 options (assuming Rivera re-signs and Hoffman is done) in a market that has, at most, eight or nine closer openings.
Add to that, most of the well-heeled teams have no real opening for a closer. The Yanks will try to sell some of these guys on set-up roles perhaps, and a younger guy might take that with the idea of trying to be Rivera's eventual successor. Honestly,they might talk Soriano into that, but other than the Yankees, the lure will be the chance to close - that combined with the fact that the Jays HAVE money to spend means there's no reason we can't get the guy we want.
For my dollars, it'd be tempting to sign both Benoit and Saito - the former to a 3 year deal (probably can't get him for less) ad the latter with one and a series of options (kinda like how the
Red Sox have been working Wakefield the last several years).
Heck, maybe get Randy Choate in here too just so he can stop killing the Jays.
I say all that with the stipulation that I think the in-house crew isn't nearly as worrisome as many like to describe it, but none of them are reliably going to be remotely as good as Benoit so let's get THAT done at least. if you go whole hog, you have something like this for your bullpen depth chart:
Closer: Benoit
Set Up: Saito and Choate
Middle Camp, Janssen, Purcey (Carlson, Buchholz, Roenicke)
Long: Zep (Richmond, Mills, Ray, Tallet if he's tendered)
I'd go to war with that crew.
Monday, 25 October 2010
Say Hello to the New Boss . . .
NOT the same as the old boss.
I admit that I knew precious little about what the selling points were on John Farrell when word came out he was on Alex Anthopoulos' short list. Oh I knew that his name had come up for different teams in previous seasons, and that for various reasons things never got serious - but I really had no idea what his professional history was and until he became a candidate for the Jays, I had no reason to know.
When I started answering for myself the question "What do I think about Farrell?" (and by extension the other finalists) my bias was towards Brian Butterfield (Told y'all he wasn't gonna leave bitches!) and so my approach was "Is this guy good enough to overcome my bias?" and it was a slow process - but the first big factor was finding out about Farrell's front office experience. It seemed to me that Alex's style lent itself very well to having a manager who was more than a manager without being an egomaniac (Hiya Buck S!). The growing impression of Farrell was that he was a guy who'd contribute solid input on the entire system and that matched up very well with AA's stated and established philosophy of collecting as much good input as possible.
Part of my hesitation was the question of whether or not we'd lose Butterfield if he wasn't promoted but ultimately, if Alex thought he was getting the right guy then maybe that price was acceptable. More to the point, it seemed clear to me that Alex has to know how valuable Butter is and anyone he hired would share that view, so they would likely pull out every stop to retain him and that's all you can ask. Still, given the lack of willingness on Anthopoulos' part to have these decisions discussed in public, right up until word leaked out about who the choice was, I really couldn't decide between the two.
Now that the cone of silence has been lifted, I have to say - WOW.
It's hard to specifically define why, but the feel of today's discussion is that this guy is the manager version of all the things which have impressed me/us so far about Alex as a GM. And just so I'm clear, I can't imagine there's anything I'd have said about him that would be higher praise. I am more excited about the future now than I was a week ago by several orders of magnitude (and I was excited before). It's also very impressive that Farrell apparently not only was interested in this job but perused it.
One remark that I picked up on Twitter that I thought was perhaps the best one-sentence summary I've seen today was this:
AndrewStoeten If we needed a last year of Cito for this guy to become available, maybe it was worth it. Difference between the two is striking as hell.
The point there, if you missed it, is that Farrell was contractually forbidden from seeking a managerial job last winter. I'll do Stoeten one better and drop the maybe. If (knowing what I know now) you'd have said to me "You can have Farrell next winter but that means you'll have to watch Cito totally screw it up for a year" (to be clear, I'm NOT saying Cito screwed everything or even most things up in 2010 - just saying IF that was the price) I'd find that a tremendously cheap price to pay. At least, based on my perceptions from today.
Some related notes - the discussion today included confirmation that Bruce Walton and Brian Butterfield WILL return in 2011. I can't overstate the value of that, in my view. The other members of the staff, even Murphy, are fungible (although the indications were that Farrell was interested in and attempting to retain Murphy). It's widely reported that Farrell will probably want to bring good friend Torey Louvello (currently the Red Sox AAA manager) on board, which would presumably cost Nick Leyva his slot if the reports are true. Beyond that, it's so much speculation.
Second - Manny Ramirez wasted no time in speaking up and saying he'd love to play for the Jays and for Farrell. My impression is that if you can say to Manny "We're willing to pay X for your services, give me a shout if you want to play for that price" and not get caught in a bidding war (maybe one of those phantom bidding wars against a non-existent competitor which Scott Boras is famous for) then it's intriguing. Farrell was ask about the idea and his initial response was that he was very impressed with Manny on the field and in the clubhouse. He seemed not at all to feel any caution concerning the "troublemaker" image that has grown up around Manny. Also, they have to be convinced they can handle Adam Lind as the every day first baseman (or be willing to make the very bold move of trading him and signing or trading for a solid defensive 1B).
Third - I think most of my fellow bloggers have already noted this but I'll say it anyway: You old school baseball writers need to get the hell over wondering where team personnel live in the off season. Seriously. If Farrell delivers playoff baseball in Toronto, he can live in Samoa in the off-season and it won't matter. Get your gorram priorities straight.
Fourth - With all due respect to John Gibbons who I did and do like, here's another place where I give Alex credit as having done better than his predecessors. You couldn't possibly have had the sense of impending greatness regarding Gibbons, or Carlos Tosca, or Tim Johnson, or Buck Martinez (to name a few) that you get from Farrell.
There have been so many competing thoughts today that i might remember something later that I forgot to mention so don't be surprised if this one is edited and amended at some point.
I admit that I knew precious little about what the selling points were on John Farrell when word came out he was on Alex Anthopoulos' short list. Oh I knew that his name had come up for different teams in previous seasons, and that for various reasons things never got serious - but I really had no idea what his professional history was and until he became a candidate for the Jays, I had no reason to know.
When I started answering for myself the question "What do I think about Farrell?" (and by extension the other finalists) my bias was towards Brian Butterfield (Told y'all he wasn't gonna leave bitches!) and so my approach was "Is this guy good enough to overcome my bias?" and it was a slow process - but the first big factor was finding out about Farrell's front office experience. It seemed to me that Alex's style lent itself very well to having a manager who was more than a manager without being an egomaniac (Hiya Buck S!). The growing impression of Farrell was that he was a guy who'd contribute solid input on the entire system and that matched up very well with AA's stated and established philosophy of collecting as much good input as possible.
Part of my hesitation was the question of whether or not we'd lose Butterfield if he wasn't promoted but ultimately, if Alex thought he was getting the right guy then maybe that price was acceptable. More to the point, it seemed clear to me that Alex has to know how valuable Butter is and anyone he hired would share that view, so they would likely pull out every stop to retain him and that's all you can ask. Still, given the lack of willingness on Anthopoulos' part to have these decisions discussed in public, right up until word leaked out about who the choice was, I really couldn't decide between the two.
Now that the cone of silence has been lifted, I have to say - WOW.
It's hard to specifically define why, but the feel of today's discussion is that this guy is the manager version of all the things which have impressed me/us so far about Alex as a GM. And just so I'm clear, I can't imagine there's anything I'd have said about him that would be higher praise. I am more excited about the future now than I was a week ago by several orders of magnitude (and I was excited before). It's also very impressive that Farrell apparently not only was interested in this job but perused it.
One remark that I picked up on Twitter that I thought was perhaps the best one-sentence summary I've seen today was this:
AndrewStoeten If we needed a last year of Cito for this guy to become available, maybe it was worth it. Difference between the two is striking as hell.
The point there, if you missed it, is that Farrell was contractually forbidden from seeking a managerial job last winter. I'll do Stoeten one better and drop the maybe. If (knowing what I know now) you'd have said to me "You can have Farrell next winter but that means you'll have to watch Cito totally screw it up for a year" (to be clear, I'm NOT saying Cito screwed everything or even most things up in 2010 - just saying IF that was the price) I'd find that a tremendously cheap price to pay. At least, based on my perceptions from today.
Some related notes - the discussion today included confirmation that Bruce Walton and Brian Butterfield WILL return in 2011. I can't overstate the value of that, in my view. The other members of the staff, even Murphy, are fungible (although the indications were that Farrell was interested in and attempting to retain Murphy). It's widely reported that Farrell will probably want to bring good friend Torey Louvello (currently the Red Sox AAA manager) on board, which would presumably cost Nick Leyva his slot if the reports are true. Beyond that, it's so much speculation.
Second - Manny Ramirez wasted no time in speaking up and saying he'd love to play for the Jays and for Farrell. My impression is that if you can say to Manny "We're willing to pay X for your services, give me a shout if you want to play for that price" and not get caught in a bidding war (maybe one of those phantom bidding wars against a non-existent competitor which Scott Boras is famous for) then it's intriguing. Farrell was ask about the idea and his initial response was that he was very impressed with Manny on the field and in the clubhouse. He seemed not at all to feel any caution concerning the "troublemaker" image that has grown up around Manny. Also, they have to be convinced they can handle Adam Lind as the every day first baseman (or be willing to make the very bold move of trading him and signing or trading for a solid defensive 1B).
Third - I think most of my fellow bloggers have already noted this but I'll say it anyway: You old school baseball writers need to get the hell over wondering where team personnel live in the off season. Seriously. If Farrell delivers playoff baseball in Toronto, he can live in Samoa in the off-season and it won't matter. Get your gorram priorities straight.
Fourth - With all due respect to John Gibbons who I did and do like, here's another place where I give Alex credit as having done better than his predecessors. You couldn't possibly have had the sense of impending greatness regarding Gibbons, or Carlos Tosca, or Tim Johnson, or Buck Martinez (to name a few) that you get from Farrell.
There have been so many competing thoughts today that i might remember something later that I forgot to mention so don't be surprised if this one is edited and amended at some point.
Saturday, 23 October 2010
2010 Positional Review: Outfielders
As we wait for official confirmation on the Toronto Blue Jays new manager (and coaching staff), I come to the last of the positional rankings for this off-season. Before I begin, let me take a moment to mention that my rankings are constantly changing and you shouldn't be shocked if my Top Prospect List has, for instance, a reversal in the order of a couple of starting pitchers from the order they were in on the Starting Pitcher list. The further down a list you get, the more that the act of ranking player "a" ahead of player "b" is entirely subjective. One guy being 13 while another is 23 means something - one being 22 while another is 23 means almost nothing.
1. Anthony Gose (20) - When you are not a scout, or a professional in any way, and you presume to comment on your team's prospects, you are necessarily stuck with basing your views on the published opinions of those who are more in a position to know along with what you can infer from stats. This is most prominent with younger players who have less professional experience. With all that as a preface, I can tell you that by all accounts, Anthony Gose is a very talented player. Acquired by the Jays from the Astros (who had gotten him from the Phillies) for Bret Wallace, Gose split the season between the Phillies Hi-A affiliate in Clearwater and the Dunedin Blue Jays.
Gose was ranked 8th in the league in Baseball America's end of season rankings (higher than highly touted Jays' SS Adeiny Hechevarria) and, while sample size caveats apply, his numbers increased noticeably after coming over to the Jays organization. His OBP for Dunedin was .786 which, over a full season, would have ranked 3rd highest among hitters under the age of 23 (remember that he played almost the full season at 19). Gose is said to be an outstanding defender with excellent raw talent at all the offensive skills, but with emphasis on the "raw."
I have a longstanding habit on this blog of comparing the production of toolsy but raw young outfielders to Alex Rios at a similar stage. While not physically similar (Rios is 5 inches taller, and a RH hitter) there is still a sense in which one can be reminded not to assume that a lack of eye-popping production means a low ceiling. Rios didn't reach Dunedin until his age 21 season, and that year he posted both a lower OPS and a lower SLG than Gose did in 2010 with Gose being two years younger. At 19 Rios split the year between short season and Lo-A (the same level as another 2010 prospect, Jake Marisnick played this year) and posted a combined OPS of .631 so one should recognize that being raw at the lower levels doesn't necessarily tell us to be cautious about a player's ceiling. If Gose replicates Rios' peak production, as a CF, the Jays and their fans will be well pleased. There's plenty of reason to think he can do so.
2. Jake Marisnick (20) - Six months younger than Gose, Marisnick was more than a full level behind him, primarily because Gose signed quickly enough to get some games in during his draft year and Marisnick didn't. A rough comparison between the two players' history shows that Marisnick had better results (in about 3 times the reps) in the GCL, while Gose was marginally better (in about 4 times the work) in Lo-A. Statistically, it's easy to think they are pretty close in terms of talent and ceiling (except that Gose is MUCH faster).
Marisnick, by the way, is much more physically comparable to Rios, although he's listed 20 pounds heavier at almost the same height. He played at roughly the same levels in his age 19 season as Rios did and preformed marginally better. He's a center fielder, and a good one, by trade but one assumes he'll shift to RF when the time comes to share the field with Gose. I, for one, am excited about the potential they will do just that in Toronto around 2015 or so.
3. Eric Thames (24) - Thames would, at first blush, would seem just a bit old for the elite prospect list (and this may have contributed to his disrespect on BA's Top 20 list for the Eastern League) but to do so overlooks how many professional at-bats he's lost to injury. Regarded as perhaps fragile before 2010, having missed over half of 2009 and much of his last year in college to injury, Thames had only 216 pro at bats before making the big jump to AA to open this season. To have responded as he did is worthy of considerably more praise than he gets outside the Jays organization.
Thames was the best hitter in the Eastern League, and - laying aside a couple of older journeymen - led the league in OPS, as well as RBI (he set a team record for New Hampshire) and finishing tied for second in home runs. Offensively his biggest issue, like many sluggers his age, is plate discipline. He draws a healthy amount of walks (his OBP was .370) but he could stand to reduce the strikeouts some. He also was much better vs. RHP than vs. LHP but that seems to be inconsistent with his previous career and might be an outlier. It is a factor to watch though.
He's not a great defensive outfielder, but the reports are that he's more raw than untalented on that front. Here again, staying healthy and beuilding up repetitions will matter greatly. If he can bring his abilities there up to at least an average level for left field, he gives the Jays flexibility. Depending on how roster construction goes heading into next season (particularly in terms of who hits at the top of the order) it's not impossible that Thames could make his debut in Toronto as early as next August. in terms of a reasonable projection for his peak years . . . my guess would be something like what Nick Swisher does most years.
4. Moises Sierra (22) - A lot of prospect reviews seem to be punishing Sierra pretty hard for missing almost all of 2010 to injury. Part of that is the influx of new talent into the system - in my current prejected list, 8 of the 20+ players ahead of him were not in the system this time last year - but part of it seems to be that it's just easy to forget what impressed you about a guy before when he hasn't played much in so long. Seirra, who has a RF arm among the best scouts have ever seen, figured this time last year to be set to open the 2010 season in New Hampshire after having preformed solidly in Dunedin for most of the season and acquitting himself well in a eight game AA audition. That would have been an impressive accomplishment for a 21 year old player.
Sierra was, and is, a classic example of the raw Latin player who's tools are the engine which drives his promotions, even when the stats do not blow you away. That 2009 season in Dunedin was the first in which he began to consolidate his offensive skill set. He was (and is) still waiting for the projected power to develop, but he showed good plate discipline, solid doubles power, and fair-to-good speed on the basepaths to go with his defensive tools. An argument can be made for the Jays to, in their continued effort to reverse the over-aggressive promotion patter of the previous administration, let Sierra get his feet under him back in Dunedin as the 2011 season begins. But the door would also be open for him to convince the organization to go ahead with the advancement to AA. I suspect what they see over the winter and particularly at spring training will go a long way in that decision.
5. Darin Mastroianni (25) - With all the makings of a fan-favorite, Mastroianni continues to play himself into the conversation regarding the future of the Blue Jays outfield. A non-discript 16th round pick in the lauded 2007 draft class, you would have been forgiven for considering him nothing more than organizational filler. Most likely, Jays' brass did as well. After a solid debut at Auburn, Mastro regressed in 2008 at Lansing and while coaches and trainers might have recognized some reason for that, outsiders would have assumed it was a sign of mediocrity to come.
However, in 2009 he announced his presence with authority. In a season split between Dunedin and New Hampshire he accumulated 70 SB (against 15 caught) as well as an impressive .398 OBP combined (this despite a 50 point drop in BA after moving to the higher level). In 2010 he consolidated those gains, though his walk and steal rate both dropped marginally. Looking ahead, he still finds himself without an obvious open door in the Toronto outfield (as it stands, he looks to compete with Thames a year from now as the potential left fielder of the near future) but certainly with an opportunity to lay claim to the old Reed Johnson role of fiercely-competitive-fourth-outfielder-slash-fan-favorite. I have often made the comparison to Scott Podsednik and I still think that's solid but if you want a higher profile name - Mastorianni's potential ceiling probably looks a lot like the Yankees' Brett Gardner looks right now.
Look at how the third-rounder Gardner compares to Mastroianni at the same minor league levels:
NAME/AGE - Lev - OBP - SLG - SB
BG - 21 - A- - .377 - .376 - 19
DM - 22 - A- - .302 - .311 - 30
BG - 22 - A+/AA - .395 - .370 - 58
DM - 23 - A+/AA - .398 - .364 - 70
BG - 23 - AA/AAA - .369 - .378 - 39
DM - 24 - AA - .390 - .398 - 46
BG - 24 - AAA - .414 - .422 - 37
DM - 25 - AAA - ???
While one should note that Gardner was one year younger at each level (he's almost exactly two years older than Mastroianni) there's enough similarity in production to make comparisons worth noting. Gardner is said to be an outstanding fielder, but I've heard nothing but good reports about Mastroianni's play in CF as well.
6. Adam Loewen (27) - When Adam Loewen was signed away from Baltimore, JP told us it would take at least 1,000 at bats before the team would have a clear idea what they had as a hitter. Loewen now has 794 and the impression is forming that there's something there. The third member of the NH outfield had an inconsistent season in 2010. I can't give you specific details thanks to MiLB's infuriating trait of only showing you the break downs on the players most recent level (which means that for player in the AFL like Loewen and Thames, all you see is their Arizona numbers) but in general terms, Loewen peaked around the All-Star break and slipped thereafter, particularly struggling through most of August. Still, his final results for 2010 are notably better than for 2009, particularly in the area of power hitting.
It was his longest season as an every-day player, and the first in which he was actively trying to refine his swing rather than just getting back the feel of being a hitter and a fielder, so perhaps fatigue was at issue. We know that he would have been a minor league free agent this off-season and the Jays have already re-signed him, and Jays' coaches and scouts who have gone on record give him lots of praise - so the team seems to think that despite the aberration of his age, there's value there. 2011 is, however, a year in which he'd do well to take another big step forward.
Also worth noting, his AFL assignment listed him as a first baseman. I've said since he signed that his fastest route to the majors might well be at first, despite there not being any bad reviews of his play in right field. I reached that conclusion because I thought Sierra was going to be in RF at AA in 2010 (obviously he wasn't) and I liked the idea of a 6'6" target for infielders to throw to. Obviously Sierra lost a year but I still think that with the departure of Wallace, Loewen has a cleaner path to starting in the majors at 1B than in the outfield.
7. Marcus Kenect (20) - Kenect, a native of the Toronto area, was a third round pick in the 2010 draft and was one of the first hitters that signed after the draft. The Jays challeneged him with an assignment to Auburn (as opposed to the GCL where most high school prospects start) and Kenect responded with a fine season and got better as the season wore on. He's said to have a RF skill set but he spent a lot of time at DH due to the lingering effects of an injury. Long term, as he potentially shares an outfield with Gose and Marisnick while climbing the ladder, he may well find himself in left field instead.
8. Michael Crouse (20) - Another lower round draft choice who's elevating his status with on-field results, the 2008 a6th rounder was, much like Mastroianni, a marginal player in the system early on, posting a .649 OPS in his first full season in the GCL. But in 2010 he took a quantum leap forward on his second tour of that league. Through 28 games in the GCL his OPS was a robust .998 and he earned himself an advancement to Lo-A Lansing with that performance where he held his own for another 28 games. Crouse is said to still be pretty raw, he has good power but strikes out way too much, he has good speed but not yet a lot of baseruning instincts. There is reason for caution, simply because players get taken in the 16th round for a reason, and because the sample size of professional work is still small. But his 2010 season compels us to pay attention. He may well join Marisnick and Kenect to for an impressive set of outfielders in Lansing next spring.
Beyond those, the quality level drops of precipitously. the only other players which might be mentioned are the handful of toolsy high schoolers drafted in the last few years who have so far done virtually nothing with those tools - Kenny Wilson, Eric Eiland, and Marcus Brisker. At this point, it would be remarkable if any of those turned their situation around and re-established prospect status.
Coming next week - My Top Prospect list which will include no less that 60 ranked players (just for the sheer verboseness of it donchaknow?)
1. Anthony Gose (20) - When you are not a scout, or a professional in any way, and you presume to comment on your team's prospects, you are necessarily stuck with basing your views on the published opinions of those who are more in a position to know along with what you can infer from stats. This is most prominent with younger players who have less professional experience. With all that as a preface, I can tell you that by all accounts, Anthony Gose is a very talented player. Acquired by the Jays from the Astros (who had gotten him from the Phillies) for Bret Wallace, Gose split the season between the Phillies Hi-A affiliate in Clearwater and the Dunedin Blue Jays.
Gose was ranked 8th in the league in Baseball America's end of season rankings (higher than highly touted Jays' SS Adeiny Hechevarria) and, while sample size caveats apply, his numbers increased noticeably after coming over to the Jays organization. His OBP for Dunedin was .786 which, over a full season, would have ranked 3rd highest among hitters under the age of 23 (remember that he played almost the full season at 19). Gose is said to be an outstanding defender with excellent raw talent at all the offensive skills, but with emphasis on the "raw."
I have a longstanding habit on this blog of comparing the production of toolsy but raw young outfielders to Alex Rios at a similar stage. While not physically similar (Rios is 5 inches taller, and a RH hitter) there is still a sense in which one can be reminded not to assume that a lack of eye-popping production means a low ceiling. Rios didn't reach Dunedin until his age 21 season, and that year he posted both a lower OPS and a lower SLG than Gose did in 2010 with Gose being two years younger. At 19 Rios split the year between short season and Lo-A (the same level as another 2010 prospect, Jake Marisnick played this year) and posted a combined OPS of .631 so one should recognize that being raw at the lower levels doesn't necessarily tell us to be cautious about a player's ceiling. If Gose replicates Rios' peak production, as a CF, the Jays and their fans will be well pleased. There's plenty of reason to think he can do so.
2. Jake Marisnick (20) - Six months younger than Gose, Marisnick was more than a full level behind him, primarily because Gose signed quickly enough to get some games in during his draft year and Marisnick didn't. A rough comparison between the two players' history shows that Marisnick had better results (in about 3 times the reps) in the GCL, while Gose was marginally better (in about 4 times the work) in Lo-A. Statistically, it's easy to think they are pretty close in terms of talent and ceiling (except that Gose is MUCH faster).
Marisnick, by the way, is much more physically comparable to Rios, although he's listed 20 pounds heavier at almost the same height. He played at roughly the same levels in his age 19 season as Rios did and preformed marginally better. He's a center fielder, and a good one, by trade but one assumes he'll shift to RF when the time comes to share the field with Gose. I, for one, am excited about the potential they will do just that in Toronto around 2015 or so.
3. Eric Thames (24) - Thames would, at first blush, would seem just a bit old for the elite prospect list (and this may have contributed to his disrespect on BA's Top 20 list for the Eastern League) but to do so overlooks how many professional at-bats he's lost to injury. Regarded as perhaps fragile before 2010, having missed over half of 2009 and much of his last year in college to injury, Thames had only 216 pro at bats before making the big jump to AA to open this season. To have responded as he did is worthy of considerably more praise than he gets outside the Jays organization.
Thames was the best hitter in the Eastern League, and - laying aside a couple of older journeymen - led the league in OPS, as well as RBI (he set a team record for New Hampshire) and finishing tied for second in home runs. Offensively his biggest issue, like many sluggers his age, is plate discipline. He draws a healthy amount of walks (his OBP was .370) but he could stand to reduce the strikeouts some. He also was much better vs. RHP than vs. LHP but that seems to be inconsistent with his previous career and might be an outlier. It is a factor to watch though.
He's not a great defensive outfielder, but the reports are that he's more raw than untalented on that front. Here again, staying healthy and beuilding up repetitions will matter greatly. If he can bring his abilities there up to at least an average level for left field, he gives the Jays flexibility. Depending on how roster construction goes heading into next season (particularly in terms of who hits at the top of the order) it's not impossible that Thames could make his debut in Toronto as early as next August. in terms of a reasonable projection for his peak years . . . my guess would be something like what Nick Swisher does most years.
4. Moises Sierra (22) - A lot of prospect reviews seem to be punishing Sierra pretty hard for missing almost all of 2010 to injury. Part of that is the influx of new talent into the system - in my current prejected list, 8 of the 20+ players ahead of him were not in the system this time last year - but part of it seems to be that it's just easy to forget what impressed you about a guy before when he hasn't played much in so long. Seirra, who has a RF arm among the best scouts have ever seen, figured this time last year to be set to open the 2010 season in New Hampshire after having preformed solidly in Dunedin for most of the season and acquitting himself well in a eight game AA audition. That would have been an impressive accomplishment for a 21 year old player.
Sierra was, and is, a classic example of the raw Latin player who's tools are the engine which drives his promotions, even when the stats do not blow you away. That 2009 season in Dunedin was the first in which he began to consolidate his offensive skill set. He was (and is) still waiting for the projected power to develop, but he showed good plate discipline, solid doubles power, and fair-to-good speed on the basepaths to go with his defensive tools. An argument can be made for the Jays to, in their continued effort to reverse the over-aggressive promotion patter of the previous administration, let Sierra get his feet under him back in Dunedin as the 2011 season begins. But the door would also be open for him to convince the organization to go ahead with the advancement to AA. I suspect what they see over the winter and particularly at spring training will go a long way in that decision.
5. Darin Mastroianni (25) - With all the makings of a fan-favorite, Mastroianni continues to play himself into the conversation regarding the future of the Blue Jays outfield. A non-discript 16th round pick in the lauded 2007 draft class, you would have been forgiven for considering him nothing more than organizational filler. Most likely, Jays' brass did as well. After a solid debut at Auburn, Mastro regressed in 2008 at Lansing and while coaches and trainers might have recognized some reason for that, outsiders would have assumed it was a sign of mediocrity to come.
However, in 2009 he announced his presence with authority. In a season split between Dunedin and New Hampshire he accumulated 70 SB (against 15 caught) as well as an impressive .398 OBP combined (this despite a 50 point drop in BA after moving to the higher level). In 2010 he consolidated those gains, though his walk and steal rate both dropped marginally. Looking ahead, he still finds himself without an obvious open door in the Toronto outfield (as it stands, he looks to compete with Thames a year from now as the potential left fielder of the near future) but certainly with an opportunity to lay claim to the old Reed Johnson role of fiercely-competitive-fourth-outfielder-slash-fan-favorite. I have often made the comparison to Scott Podsednik and I still think that's solid but if you want a higher profile name - Mastorianni's potential ceiling probably looks a lot like the Yankees' Brett Gardner looks right now.
Look at how the third-rounder Gardner compares to Mastroianni at the same minor league levels:
NAME/AGE - Lev - OBP - SLG - SB
BG - 21 - A- - .377 - .376 - 19
DM - 22 - A- - .302 - .311 - 30
BG - 22 - A+/AA - .395 - .370 - 58
DM - 23 - A+/AA - .398 - .364 - 70
BG - 23 - AA/AAA - .369 - .378 - 39
DM - 24 - AA - .390 - .398 - 46
BG - 24 - AAA - .414 - .422 - 37
DM - 25 - AAA - ???
While one should note that Gardner was one year younger at each level (he's almost exactly two years older than Mastroianni) there's enough similarity in production to make comparisons worth noting. Gardner is said to be an outstanding fielder, but I've heard nothing but good reports about Mastroianni's play in CF as well.
6. Adam Loewen (27) - When Adam Loewen was signed away from Baltimore, JP told us it would take at least 1,000 at bats before the team would have a clear idea what they had as a hitter. Loewen now has 794 and the impression is forming that there's something there. The third member of the NH outfield had an inconsistent season in 2010. I can't give you specific details thanks to MiLB's infuriating trait of only showing you the break downs on the players most recent level (which means that for player in the AFL like Loewen and Thames, all you see is their Arizona numbers) but in general terms, Loewen peaked around the All-Star break and slipped thereafter, particularly struggling through most of August. Still, his final results for 2010 are notably better than for 2009, particularly in the area of power hitting.
It was his longest season as an every-day player, and the first in which he was actively trying to refine his swing rather than just getting back the feel of being a hitter and a fielder, so perhaps fatigue was at issue. We know that he would have been a minor league free agent this off-season and the Jays have already re-signed him, and Jays' coaches and scouts who have gone on record give him lots of praise - so the team seems to think that despite the aberration of his age, there's value there. 2011 is, however, a year in which he'd do well to take another big step forward.
Also worth noting, his AFL assignment listed him as a first baseman. I've said since he signed that his fastest route to the majors might well be at first, despite there not being any bad reviews of his play in right field. I reached that conclusion because I thought Sierra was going to be in RF at AA in 2010 (obviously he wasn't) and I liked the idea of a 6'6" target for infielders to throw to. Obviously Sierra lost a year but I still think that with the departure of Wallace, Loewen has a cleaner path to starting in the majors at 1B than in the outfield.
7. Marcus Kenect (20) - Kenect, a native of the Toronto area, was a third round pick in the 2010 draft and was one of the first hitters that signed after the draft. The Jays challeneged him with an assignment to Auburn (as opposed to the GCL where most high school prospects start) and Kenect responded with a fine season and got better as the season wore on. He's said to have a RF skill set but he spent a lot of time at DH due to the lingering effects of an injury. Long term, as he potentially shares an outfield with Gose and Marisnick while climbing the ladder, he may well find himself in left field instead.
8. Michael Crouse (20) - Another lower round draft choice who's elevating his status with on-field results, the 2008 a6th rounder was, much like Mastroianni, a marginal player in the system early on, posting a .649 OPS in his first full season in the GCL. But in 2010 he took a quantum leap forward on his second tour of that league. Through 28 games in the GCL his OPS was a robust .998 and he earned himself an advancement to Lo-A Lansing with that performance where he held his own for another 28 games. Crouse is said to still be pretty raw, he has good power but strikes out way too much, he has good speed but not yet a lot of baseruning instincts. There is reason for caution, simply because players get taken in the 16th round for a reason, and because the sample size of professional work is still small. But his 2010 season compels us to pay attention. He may well join Marisnick and Kenect to for an impressive set of outfielders in Lansing next spring.
Beyond those, the quality level drops of precipitously. the only other players which might be mentioned are the handful of toolsy high schoolers drafted in the last few years who have so far done virtually nothing with those tools - Kenny Wilson, Eric Eiland, and Marcus Brisker. At this point, it would be remarkable if any of those turned their situation around and re-established prospect status.
Coming next week - My Top Prospect list which will include no less that 60 ranked players (just for the sheer verboseness of it donchaknow?)
Friday, 22 October 2010
And Then There Were Two?
There is a considerable amount of inconsistency in the underlying reports, but here seems to be a growing consensus that Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell has the inside track as we head into the home stretch of the Jays managerial search. At least one article suggests that Demario Hale and Sandy Alomar, Jr have been told they will not get the job and infers that Brian Butterfield is still not officially eliminated.
But that level of detail is by no means certain, because the report is not from one of the major sports journalists. Shi Davidi wrote last night that none of the four men had been told they were in or out but a lot can change in 24 hours.
Late this afternoon the Boston Globe confirmed a report from Sean McAdams that Hale had been eliminated, and in a separate tweet McAdams reported that Alomar had been eliminated. The Glode article offered the opinion that Farrell would get the job "if a contract could be worked out" but obviously money isn't going to stop Anthopoulos from getting his guy. I more rather think that if there are negotiations going on, they have to do with the makeup of the coaching staff.
One has to believe that the Jays will go to considerable lengths to keep Butterfield on the major league staff (and away from Baltimore) if possible and that startsw by having Farrell invested in retaining him. It's worth noting that Butterfield has flatly stated he'd like to stay in Toronto whether or not he's promoted and, in my opinion, it's a mistake to simply assume if Farrell gets the job then Butter departs.
Also, it seems logical to think that retaining Bruce Walton would be a priority.
Still, while I'm not yet prepared to just ASSUME that Farrell is in, it is certainly going to be an upset at this point if he's not.
Finally, Mike Wilner made an excellent point: Alex Anthopoulos highly prizes discretion and keeping things close to the vest. If he is as successful in that regard in this act as he has been on previous occasions, then the guy who's hired is more likely to be the guy you never saw coming.
But that level of detail is by no means certain, because the report is not from one of the major sports journalists. Shi Davidi wrote last night that none of the four men had been told they were in or out but a lot can change in 24 hours.
Late this afternoon the Boston Globe confirmed a report from Sean McAdams that Hale had been eliminated, and in a separate tweet McAdams reported that Alomar had been eliminated. The Glode article offered the opinion that Farrell would get the job "if a contract could be worked out" but obviously money isn't going to stop Anthopoulos from getting his guy. I more rather think that if there are negotiations going on, they have to do with the makeup of the coaching staff.
One has to believe that the Jays will go to considerable lengths to keep Butterfield on the major league staff (and away from Baltimore) if possible and that startsw by having Farrell invested in retaining him. It's worth noting that Butterfield has flatly stated he'd like to stay in Toronto whether or not he's promoted and, in my opinion, it's a mistake to simply assume if Farrell gets the job then Butter departs.
Also, it seems logical to think that retaining Bruce Walton would be a priority.
Still, while I'm not yet prepared to just ASSUME that Farrell is in, it is certainly going to be an upset at this point if he's not.
Finally, Mike Wilner made an excellent point: Alex Anthopoulos highly prizes discretion and keeping things close to the vest. If he is as successful in that regard in this act as he has been on previous occasions, then the guy who's hired is more likely to be the guy you never saw coming.
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
How will he manage?
There have been many machinations in the 4 weeks since I listed what appeared at the time to be a comprehensive list of potential candidates for the Jays managing chair. Before updating the newcomers to that discussion, let me review the list in brief (those known to still be active possibilities are bolded):
1. Brian Butterfield - still a candidate, reportedly a finalist.
2. Fredi Gonzalez - as expected, hired by the Braves.
3. Eric Wedge - hired in Seattle.
4. Tim Wallach - denied permission by the Dodgers in some flaky back-room shinanigans.
5. Ryne Sandberg - finished second in race for Cubs job, hungry to manage in the majors.
6. Dave Martinez - crossed off AA's list.
7. Nick Leyva - not publically ruled out.
8. Don Baylor - word was tweeted today that he's out, and unhappy. No details yet.
9. Rob Thomson - same report as one concerning Martinez - apparently eliminated.
10. Pat Listach - never confirmed to have interviewed here.
11. Don Wakamatsu - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
12. Juan Samuel - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
13. Luis Rivera - reportedly ruled out, may still be promoted within the system.
14. Sal Fasano - ditto.
15. Bobby Valentine - interviewed, not considered to be a candidate.
16. Joey Cora - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
17. Alan Trammel - hasn't been mentioned as a candidate for ANY opening.
18. Willie Randolph - no report that he's been seriously considered here.
19. Bob Melvin - considered front runner for Brewers, not a serious candidate for Jays.
20. Bob Brenly - only ever mentioned for Cubs job, which he declined interest in.
New names!
As you surely know by now, Sandy Alomar Jr. has come out of nowhere to be a strong contender. Bob Elliot tweeted tonight that he had a "day long interview" today. Mike Wilner recalls that Anthopoulos told him on-air that the team might feel the need to grab a guy who was a "potential star" even if he were raw and not ready yet - observed that perhaps Alomar was the man of whom he was thinking.
My take is that even if the Jays ultimately decide to go elsewhere they will try to grab Alomar for a coaching position in the Jays organization. IF the Jays go with Alomar, look for an aging baseball guru (Nick Leyva at a bare minimum) to come on board as the bench coach to hold Alomar's hand. Be thinking of such old-timers who have connections to the Jays or the current front office crew.
Another relatively hot name is Red Sox bench coach DeMario Hale (who's work as a minor league manager in that system is highly regarded) - he's said to have had multiple interviews. Two other Sox coaches have been mentioned, but 3B coach Tim Bogar has been ruled out and pitching coach John Farrell has had at least one confirmed interview according to Elliot.
Two members of the Padres organization saw there name come up. Rick Renteria is apparently still on the list, though he's been penciled in as the padres bench coach for 2011. The other name was minor league manager Randy Ready about whom little has been said lately and appears now to have just been speculation.
Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke continues the RR theme - he's also Josh's uncle, if I'm not mistaken.
Two men still involved in he playoffs - Rangers hitting coach (and former Rockies manager) Clint Hurdle has been mentioned as a possibility, along with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin though both are apparently cases of journalistic speculation more than more reliable reports.
A reasonable approximation of the short list would be Butterfield, Alomar, Hale and possibly latecomer Sandberg in the first rank, with Renteria, Roenicke, and possibly (depending on how much credit you give Griffin's speculation) Mackanin still on the radar.
Hale has the pedigree - read his bio at Wkipedia if you want the details - and the judgment of Terry Francona and the Red Sox executives has to be respected.
Butterfield has the long-time association with the team and the familiarity with the player personnel. If he didn't get the job, retaining him on the new man's stuff would be a very wise move.
Alomar has, perhaps (based on the level of interest) the "rising star" magic that might perhaps convince AA to make a very dramatic move.
Sandberg has the high profile of a Hall-of-Fame player and a solid coaching resume to support it.
I'm gonna have to defer to the Boy Genius on this one I think.
1. Brian Butterfield - still a candidate, reportedly a finalist.
2. Fredi Gonzalez - as expected, hired by the Braves.
3. Eric Wedge - hired in Seattle.
4. Tim Wallach - denied permission by the Dodgers in some flaky back-room shinanigans.
5. Ryne Sandberg - finished second in race for Cubs job, hungry to manage in the majors.
6. Dave Martinez - crossed off AA's list.
7. Nick Leyva - not publically ruled out.
8. Don Baylor - word was tweeted today that he's out, and unhappy. No details yet.
9. Rob Thomson - same report as one concerning Martinez - apparently eliminated.
10. Pat Listach - never confirmed to have interviewed here.
11. Don Wakamatsu - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
12. Juan Samuel - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
13. Luis Rivera - reportedly ruled out, may still be promoted within the system.
14. Sal Fasano - ditto.
15. Bobby Valentine - interviewed, not considered to be a candidate.
16. Joey Cora - was said to be in line for an interview but one hasn't been confirmed.
17. Alan Trammel - hasn't been mentioned as a candidate for ANY opening.
18. Willie Randolph - no report that he's been seriously considered here.
19. Bob Melvin - considered front runner for Brewers, not a serious candidate for Jays.
20. Bob Brenly - only ever mentioned for Cubs job, which he declined interest in.
New names!
As you surely know by now, Sandy Alomar Jr. has come out of nowhere to be a strong contender. Bob Elliot tweeted tonight that he had a "day long interview" today. Mike Wilner recalls that Anthopoulos told him on-air that the team might feel the need to grab a guy who was a "potential star" even if he were raw and not ready yet - observed that perhaps Alomar was the man of whom he was thinking.
My take is that even if the Jays ultimately decide to go elsewhere they will try to grab Alomar for a coaching position in the Jays organization. IF the Jays go with Alomar, look for an aging baseball guru (Nick Leyva at a bare minimum) to come on board as the bench coach to hold Alomar's hand. Be thinking of such old-timers who have connections to the Jays or the current front office crew.
Another relatively hot name is Red Sox bench coach DeMario Hale (who's work as a minor league manager in that system is highly regarded) - he's said to have had multiple interviews. Two other Sox coaches have been mentioned, but 3B coach Tim Bogar has been ruled out and pitching coach John Farrell has had at least one confirmed interview according to Elliot.
Two members of the Padres organization saw there name come up. Rick Renteria is apparently still on the list, though he's been penciled in as the padres bench coach for 2011. The other name was minor league manager Randy Ready about whom little has been said lately and appears now to have just been speculation.
Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke continues the RR theme - he's also Josh's uncle, if I'm not mistaken.
Two men still involved in he playoffs - Rangers hitting coach (and former Rockies manager) Clint Hurdle has been mentioned as a possibility, along with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin though both are apparently cases of journalistic speculation more than more reliable reports.
A reasonable approximation of the short list would be Butterfield, Alomar, Hale and possibly latecomer Sandberg in the first rank, with Renteria, Roenicke, and possibly (depending on how much credit you give Griffin's speculation) Mackanin still on the radar.
Hale has the pedigree - read his bio at Wkipedia if you want the details - and the judgment of Terry Francona and the Red Sox executives has to be respected.
Butterfield has the long-time association with the team and the familiarity with the player personnel. If he didn't get the job, retaining him on the new man's stuff would be a very wise move.
Alomar has, perhaps (based on the level of interest) the "rising star" magic that might perhaps convince AA to make a very dramatic move.
Sandberg has the high profile of a Hall-of-Fame player and a solid coaching resume to support it.
I'm gonna have to defer to the Boy Genius on this one I think.
Saturday, 16 October 2010
2010 Positional Review: Third Base
There's an interesting mix at this position, one which has been weak for some time now in recent Jays history. The Jays have not developed a reasonably good 3B from their own system in almost 20 years (since the advent of Ed Sprague). none of these guys might be that guy either, but there's at least some interesting and comment worthy things going on.
1. Brad Emaus (25) - More and more I hear stuff from Jeff Blair that turns out not to be the case and which makes me skeptical of other stuff he reports that doesn't seem to make sense. One such item is that the Jays are not very high on Emaus. I find that pretty difficult to accept. If he were a butcher defensively, we'd be well aware of it by now (One can easily think of several current Jays minor leaguers for whom it's well known they need work with the glove) and he is obviously not a slouch at the plate.
Emaus struggled for a couple of very bad months in the first half of 2009, and in the rest of his career he's done nothing but find his way on base. A .380 OBP in Dunedin in 2008, and a combined .397 at two stops in 2010 both attest to his skills in that regard. He posted 31 walks against 18 strikeouts in AA before being promoted and he walked 50 more times in AAA. He's not a burner but he's an efficient base stealer (13 in 15 attempts in 2010), he's not a slugger but he's got reasonable power (seems likely to hit 32-40 doubles and 12-15 homers in the majors). He's also apparently a serviceable 2B as well as playing 3B (reports are scarce as to how good he is at one relative to the other).
At a bare minimum he's Jeff Keppinger with more power. Don't be surprised if he's one of those guys who comes in below the radar (like Casey McGehee) who pretty much forces his team to give him a role.
2. Kevin Ahrens (22) - All but written off by outside observers by mid-season, Ahrens revived his prospect status a bit in the second half. One must admit that the sample size in play here is very limited, but given the results, and the notable specific change in approach (the team decided to end his switch-hitting days) and his pedigree, I'm willing to believe in him at least one more off-season. He'll be playing again in Dunedin (after spending most of 2010 in Lansing) and, as I noted last week regarding his good friend Justin Jackson, this is actually just about the time a 22 year old drafted out of high school OUGHT to be playing his first full year in Hi-A ball. That said, he doesn't really have any more time to spare, he needs to put himself on the map in 2011 or his opportunities will be seriously limited.
3. Kellen Sweeney (19) - Sweeney (the younger brother of Oakland's Ryan) signed late after being drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and the results are such a small sample as to be indicative of nothing. Sweeney is said to be a good runner, a good defender and have a good hitting eye with projectable power. Baseball America rated him one of the 20 best prospects in the GCL which is pretty high praise given how little he actually got to play in 2010. My guess is there's a reasonable possibility the Jays will give him a chance to play in Lansing before the 2011 season is over.
4. Chris Hawkins (19) - one month older than Sweeney, and drafted one round behind him, Hawkins joined Sweeney on that BA top 20 list. Hawkins signed earlier than his draft-mate and got almost 3 times as many games in the GCL. The major difference in their production is that each drew 15 walks - Sweeney in 16 games and Hawkins in 46. Based on that, my guess is that the former is somewhat more advanced than the latter, and will be the one playing at the higher level when opening day arrives.
5. Mark Sobolewski (24) - Returning to Lansing to open the season after a less-than-mediocre season there in 2009, Sobo contributed impressive results for 40+ games before being promoted to Dunedin (skipping over the younger - and struggling at that point - Ahrens). while in Hi-A he was not bad, but not great. within the context of the normal offensive level of the league, it wasn't a BAD performance, but for a player his age he needs to draw noticeably more walks if he's going to really get any attention. Ideally, he needs to make the AA team in the spring to avoid a conflict for playing time in Dunedin.
Also pay attention to Gabriel Cenas, a 17 year old (as of today, in fact) Venezuelan signed the same day the Blue Jays signed Adonis Cardona. the team gave him $700,000 which is pretty impressive but only 1/4 what Cardona got (and Cardona was considered a middle-first-round talent) so make your calculations accordingly. In any case, he's surely 5-6 years away.
Another player people will ask questions about if he's not listed is Shawn Bowman who spent the year with the Jays' AA New Hampshire squad. While Bowman did exhibit impressive power in may and June, he tailed off considerably as the summer wore on and, overlooked by most, he's gonna be a minor league free agent (If I have my information correct).
1. Brad Emaus (25) - More and more I hear stuff from Jeff Blair that turns out not to be the case and which makes me skeptical of other stuff he reports that doesn't seem to make sense. One such item is that the Jays are not very high on Emaus. I find that pretty difficult to accept. If he were a butcher defensively, we'd be well aware of it by now (One can easily think of several current Jays minor leaguers for whom it's well known they need work with the glove) and he is obviously not a slouch at the plate.
Emaus struggled for a couple of very bad months in the first half of 2009, and in the rest of his career he's done nothing but find his way on base. A .380 OBP in Dunedin in 2008, and a combined .397 at two stops in 2010 both attest to his skills in that regard. He posted 31 walks against 18 strikeouts in AA before being promoted and he walked 50 more times in AAA. He's not a burner but he's an efficient base stealer (13 in 15 attempts in 2010), he's not a slugger but he's got reasonable power (seems likely to hit 32-40 doubles and 12-15 homers in the majors). He's also apparently a serviceable 2B as well as playing 3B (reports are scarce as to how good he is at one relative to the other).
At a bare minimum he's Jeff Keppinger with more power. Don't be surprised if he's one of those guys who comes in below the radar (like Casey McGehee) who pretty much forces his team to give him a role.
2. Kevin Ahrens (22) - All but written off by outside observers by mid-season, Ahrens revived his prospect status a bit in the second half. One must admit that the sample size in play here is very limited, but given the results, and the notable specific change in approach (the team decided to end his switch-hitting days) and his pedigree, I'm willing to believe in him at least one more off-season. He'll be playing again in Dunedin (after spending most of 2010 in Lansing) and, as I noted last week regarding his good friend Justin Jackson, this is actually just about the time a 22 year old drafted out of high school OUGHT to be playing his first full year in Hi-A ball. That said, he doesn't really have any more time to spare, he needs to put himself on the map in 2011 or his opportunities will be seriously limited.
3. Kellen Sweeney (19) - Sweeney (the younger brother of Oakland's Ryan) signed late after being drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and the results are such a small sample as to be indicative of nothing. Sweeney is said to be a good runner, a good defender and have a good hitting eye with projectable power. Baseball America rated him one of the 20 best prospects in the GCL which is pretty high praise given how little he actually got to play in 2010. My guess is there's a reasonable possibility the Jays will give him a chance to play in Lansing before the 2011 season is over.
4. Chris Hawkins (19) - one month older than Sweeney, and drafted one round behind him, Hawkins joined Sweeney on that BA top 20 list. Hawkins signed earlier than his draft-mate and got almost 3 times as many games in the GCL. The major difference in their production is that each drew 15 walks - Sweeney in 16 games and Hawkins in 46. Based on that, my guess is that the former is somewhat more advanced than the latter, and will be the one playing at the higher level when opening day arrives.
5. Mark Sobolewski (24) - Returning to Lansing to open the season after a less-than-mediocre season there in 2009, Sobo contributed impressive results for 40+ games before being promoted to Dunedin (skipping over the younger - and struggling at that point - Ahrens). while in Hi-A he was not bad, but not great. within the context of the normal offensive level of the league, it wasn't a BAD performance, but for a player his age he needs to draw noticeably more walks if he's going to really get any attention. Ideally, he needs to make the AA team in the spring to avoid a conflict for playing time in Dunedin.
Also pay attention to Gabriel Cenas, a 17 year old (as of today, in fact) Venezuelan signed the same day the Blue Jays signed Adonis Cardona. the team gave him $700,000 which is pretty impressive but only 1/4 what Cardona got (and Cardona was considered a middle-first-round talent) so make your calculations accordingly. In any case, he's surely 5-6 years away.
Another player people will ask questions about if he's not listed is Shawn Bowman who spent the year with the Jays' AA New Hampshire squad. While Bowman did exhibit impressive power in may and June, he tailed off considerably as the summer wore on and, overlooked by most, he's gonna be a minor league free agent (If I have my information correct).
Greetings and Salutations
Just a quick note to direct y'alls attention to the new Blog in the Jaysosphere - one with rookie of the year potential based on early work - The 5th Starter. I'm already impressed by what i see and have only one quibble: if you didn't know it was called The 5th Starter you wouldn't be able to tell from the massive Old-School Jays logo at the top of the page. someone needs to get creative and design a banner that let's the visitor know where they are (meaning no disrespect to the old-school!)
Check it out!
(That was not a request)
Check it out!
(That was not a request)
Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Rosterbation: part the Second
Following up on last weeks post, here's my take (pre-potential-acquisitions) on the pitching.
I had planed to make this two separate posts but we all know there's only role in the starting staff to discuss, and that's the "fifth" starter job so I won't waste space on the established four. There are a number of nominal candidates for the job but they fall in two distinct tiers:
top tier:
Shawn Hill, Marc Rzepczyinski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart
second tier:
Brad Mills, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond, Bobby Ray
(albeit, some might quibble with Hill making the top tier and Richmond not)
Taking the second group first: I'm assuming the Litsch will be hampered enough by his health to take away whatever shot he had at overcoming the more talented group; Richmond's absence from Toronto in September suggests he's fallen down the depth chart (and his splits suggest he might better find his role in relief if he remains in the organization); it seems clear Ray is destined for the 'pen and that's been an assumption for a while; that leaves Mills who might be left standing if spring broke in his favor but seems likely to either be part of a trade or be positioned to earn his stripes by proving himself out of the bullpen. Some think he might be a reasonable (and much cheaper) facsimile of what Tallet gave the Jays (prior to 2010).
In the top tier, my first assumption is that Stewart simply needs to build up his endurance more. He's a candidate here only in the sense that he is very good and if others were hurt or take a step back, he has the talent to force his way up the chart. But ideally, he ought to go to AAA and just build up his IP total. Zep is the hardest call because he has shown enough talent that he could come into camp and simply force his way into the role but he could also play a significant role in relief (it's not insane to think they might let him close if no closer is imported). Of the four, he's the most likely guy to break camp in the major league 'pen and that inadvertently lessens his chances to be the fifth starter.
The two main candidates are Drabek and Hill. Ultimately, barring injury or some remarkable circumstance, Drabek is going to be the guy in this job - but even though he has the ability to break camp here, the Jays may easily conclude that they are not bound to force that situation because of Hill. The casual fan might not remember just how well regarded Hill was before the series of injuries which kept him from maximizing his results. Rehabbing and recovering through the Jays' system this year, he seemed to still have considerable ability (although one always has to temper their enthusiasm when a recuperating major leaguer dominates kids 5 years or more younger than he). If Hill comes to Spring Training with the skills that once had scouts enthusiastic about him, the team would have the luxury of going a bit slower with Drabek.
I could easily envision a situation where Drabek, even off a strong spring, would get a short stint in AAA while Hill filled in the major league rotation long enough to build up some trade value (assuming no one is injured, of course). At the extreme, Drabek might spend the whole first half in the minors. Of course, Hill does have a fragile track record, and injuries in general are a fact of life. And it's possible that the team feels that there is more value in Drabek breaking camp in the majors than there is in any alternative which prevents it.
For the sake of future discussions about the makeup of the bullpen and the minor league teams, I'm going to go with the ASSUMPTION that Hill is in the first position, and that barring injury he'll open the season there and the other pitchers will begin in other places.
Turning to the bullpen, one has to first acknowledge the three potential free agents. Scott Downs is clearly gone. If the Jays forgo the associated draft pics and break the bank to re-sign Downs, then everything I'm about to say here is pretty much void. Jason Frasor is essentially gone. An argument can be made that Frasor's type A status will lead him to accept arbitration, and while that can't be ruled out, it actually just makes it likely that Frasor will sign on with a team that's already spent their first round pick on some other Type A free agent (for instance, the Angels sign Crawford, then sign Frasor) or even by a team with a protected pick. It's his one chance to cash in and accepting arbitration would seem to be a last-resort.
Kevin Gregg is a more complex issue because of the options the Jays hold on him. My guess is that a survey of available options and the needs around the league will prompt Anthopoulos to let him walk. There's a decent possibility that the Jays could sign an outside the organization closer (more material for a future blog) but I'm going to approach this question as if we are stuck with internal options.
the candidates, then, for the Blue Jays bullpen in 2011 are as follows:
LHP: David Purcey, Jesse Carlson, Brian Tallet, Marc Rzepczyinski, Brad Mills, Rommie Lewis
RHP: Shawn Camp, Casey Janssen, Josh Roenicke, Taylor Buchholz, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Richmond, Bobby Ray, Dirk Hayhurst
(there's some possibility that a AA reliever could jump to the majors but for now we'll lay that aside)
Let's acknowledge up front - Jeremy Accardo will, barring a surprising deal, almost certainly be non-tendered and one has to assume a similar fate for Brian Tallet. Laying those aside leaves 12 candidates for seven roles. the major question of course being who will close.
I'd assume the closer candidates are Purcey (based on pedigree), Camp (based on effectiveness), Roenicke (based on scouting reports of "stuff") and possibly Buchholz as a dark horse. There's a nonzero chance that they might surprise us and give Zep a chance at that role too, but there's been not so much as a whisper about it from the press. I would add to this conversation the observation that before his injury, Casey Janssen finished 21 games, collected 6 saves and had a very low ERA. His supporting stats were much better this year than they were in 2007, and it's not inconceivable he could be a candidate as well - it's at least as realistic as Camp getting the job.
By the way, Stewart has been described as able to close in the majors right now but the Jays have shown no sign of wavering from developing him as a starter (the previously mentioned Bob Elliot report has been denied).
There really is no way to guess who would win out there but I'm going to suggest that just being a closer candidate is a good sign you make the team at least. For simplicity of discussion, I'm going to call the presumptive closer as Purcey based on nothing but his first-round history. You shouldn't assume that's a product of serious analysis.
So if Purcey is in Gregg's role, who's in Downs and Frasor's? I'm going to just go ahead and state flatly that Janssen can give you everything Frasor can. I don't think that question is even a worry. Downs is a much tougher question. Carlson was as good as Downs' typical work in his rookie year, but hasn't been since. He MIGHT regain that form but you shouldn't assume so. Zep might be very good as a set-up lefty, as might Mills but again, we're dealing in the unknown here.
Camp, of course, can't really be asked for any more than he did - if he simply maintains that's enough. If you get more that is a bonus. The pressure is perhaps greater on Josh Roenicke than anyone else. the Jays need him to step up and exhibit the control in the majors that he featured in AAA. One would have to assume there's something mental going on here, as his control was good enough coming up through the minors that it shouldn't be this big an issue now.
The other wild card is Buchholz. In 2008, while pitching for the Rockies, Buchholz was VERY good. He'd been a starter in the minors (well regarded enough to be the #50 prospect in the country according to Baseball America prior to the 2004 season). He'll be far enough removed from TJ surgery by the spring that he should be able to see if he can refine his control back to previous levels. It's almost impossible to say what, exactly, the Jays might get from Buchholz but unless they import morethan one FA reliever, you have to like his chances of making important contributions.
So here's my gut feeling about how that group of 12 shakes out at the beginning of ST:
Closer - Purcey (initially, at least)
Set up - Camp, Roenicke and Carlson (Carlson being on a fairly short leash)
Middle - Janssen, Buchholz and Zep
Long - Mills or Richmond or Ray
Fringe guys - Hayhurst, Lewis
But this is the most fluid group on the team. there's not that much that separates the best guy in this group from the worst(aside from the fringe guys). I wouldn't be shocked if any one of six different guys there broke camp as the closer.
I also wouldn't be shocked if the Jays imported a potential closer and someone for Downs' LH set up role, via trade or free agency. But that's for another day.
One final point: Cito Gaston, and others I'm sure, have (or would) argued that the Jays MUST sign or tradefor more veteran relievers rather than face the future with these guys. I've already ranted about that idea and won't repeat myself here except to say that if the jays are to assume any of these guys have a role to play in their future, 2011 is THE year to put them out there and let them grow into the sort of pitcher who can fill those important roles. Take a guy like Roenicke. If you look at his stuff and think "this guy can be an important pitcher for us when we are contending" then you HAVE to let him learn and grow "in the fire" at some point, and 2011 is that point. Same for several other of these guys. If 2011 were a year when we were pulling out the stops to contend, then yeah, spend some money here. But it's not. So lets grow the pen like we grew the rotation in 2010.
(Note: I've not forgotten McGowan, I simply assume he can't come to camp and do well enough to break camp with the team, even if healthy)
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