First Look: Minor League Rosters, Part 2

[note - I have no idea what's going on with this thing and the code. Font sizes are all over the place, color code is dropping out. I've no idea what's going on]

Getting right to this one, due to the lateness of the hour. but one juicy tidbit: According to interviews on the Fan590:

*Per Buck Martinez, the reports on Colby Rasmus are glowing. Buck says he's a new man with a new attitude, a new stance and he's really impressing everyone.

*Per John Farrell, Dusty McGowan has been cruising through his bullpen work and progression and has the staff excited.

*Per several sources, there are already 30 team member working out in Dunedin and the R&C report date hasn't arrived yet.

*Home Opener tickets sold out in less than two hours. last year it took aver a month.

*There's optimism all around about Adam Lind and his physical readiness to play 1B this year which will in turn presumably provoke optimism about his hitting.

*Per several reports Brett Cecil is in much better shape than he was this time last year.

*Some are suggesting that people ought to be very cautious in assuming Kyle Drabek won't make the rotation out of Spring.

[important players in italics]

Dunedin Blue Jays

Rotation:

Sean Nolin - Possibly no one among the pitchers took a bigger leap forward as a prospect in 2011 than Nolin. After reporting out of shape and unmotivated in 2010, he was a new man in 2011 and the results reflected it as he made the Lansing squad and other than a brief stumble in June was consistently reliable all year.

Casey Lawrence - a non-drafted free agent, Lawrence is the definition of an underdog in any organization. In the Jays exceedingly deep system he must feel like he's climbing Everest. He was a mainstay in Lansing all year and got a brief late-season look at Dunedin when injuries opened the door. He's pitched quite well at every level but the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Egan Smith - had a pretty okay year at Lansing, albeit he gave up WAY too much contact, but ultimately he's a placeholder who will be brushed aside when the hot-shot kids come along. Odds are he's going to get exposed pretty badly the higher he moves up the ladder.

Andrew Liebel - The former 3rd round pick was an okay prospect before injuries wrecked his season (at Dunedin) in 2010. Last year he worked through three levels and made it back to Dunedin for eight wholly unimpressive appearances. and He'll be 26 next month. I wouldn't be stunned if he's cut before opening day, but he's certainly not blocking anyone.

Matt Fields - a starter in 2010 who lost almost all of 2011 to injury, if he recovers strongly he might end up in some rotation here, but ultimately he's "just a guy" unless he steps up strong in Spring so he could end up waiting for a break in the bullpen.

Bullpen:

Danny Barnes - dominated at Lansing, no reason at all for him to not make this roster.

Dustin Antolin - taking a bit of a flyer here. Antolin's stuff was well regarded before missing a big part of 2010 with TJ surgery. He came back quickly last year but as in most cases, the first year back is not really indicative of what the player will end up being able to do. There are a couple of other reasonable candidates for promotion but if this guy recovers his full pre-surgery form this spring, he's the one with the most promise.

Aaron Loup - can't see much in the stats, but the jays sent him to the AFL so it's possible they see something of value here.

Scott Gracey and Steve Turnbull - Were both quite good in the first third of the season at Lansing, and just so-so after being promoted. both are in their age 25 season so there's little reason to think they are more than OP at this point.

Casey Beck, Matt Daley, Sean Shoffitt - Becks always had nice K numbers but too many walks. He missed most of last year and he's 25 this year, Daley was a train wreck (previously he had a similar story to Beck), and Shofitt is a converted outfielder who's still learning but he's 27 - any or all of them may well be shown the door, particularly in light of a couple of guys from Lansing who might make their case in spring.

Lineup:

Catcher - Carlos Perez - He had his worst year as a pro in Lansing last year but odds are the team will not hold him back on that account. It's not a sure thing though as there's no pressure from below. If it was any other level he might repeat, but there's a case to be made for having him at the team's Florida complex and in the warmer weather.

First Base - Gabriel Jacobo - this is a complete guess, but it seems to me that the speculation in some quarters that the team will go ahead and promote KC Hobson despite an unimpressive season on both offense and defense are wildly optimistic. In his absence, there's a void here (as there is, in fact, all around the Dunedin infield) and Jacabo, taken in the Rule 5 draft seems as good a fit here as anyone. He was a perfectly respectable hitter in Hi-A ball in 2010 and marginal at AA in 2011. Unless the team really thinks they have stole something special, plugging him into a glaring hole seems logical.

Second Base - Oliver Dominguez and/or Ivan Contrares - both are OP with absolutely nothing to recommend them but the fact that anyone below them who's actually kinda good isn't ready for this level yet.

Shortstop - Peter Mooney - another total guess on my part, but here's why I put him here: the diminutive Mooney is a college player, who's 21 this year, older than any other reasonable candidate for this job except Andrew Burns (both were drafted in 2011). The difference is that Mooney made it as far as Lansing last season (albeit for only 7 games) and he hit quite well at all three stops. By contrast Burns got 23 games at Vancouver and did poorly enough that no promotion is forthcoming yet. Also, while neither is a top-notch prospect, Mooney is more likely to end up an OP so there's less value loos if he's pushed too hard. They could go anywhere really with this one but there won't be a major prospect here.

Third Base - Kevin Aherns - not good enough to be promoted, no one pushing him from behind, and SOMEONE has to play third here. Might as well be him.

Left Field - Marcus Kencht - After three very ugly positions, things are looking up. The entire Lansing outfield in 2011 was made up of guys to be excited about. Kencht is probably the least of the three, but he's also surely the third best hitting starter on this team. He's probably be in right on another team.

Center field - Jake Marisnick - do I really need to elaborate? I'll give you this much - it's not impossible that he will force a mid-season promotion, but given what's ahead of him (Rasmus and Gose) there's really no reason for them to push any harder than they have to.

Right Field - Michael Crouse - hit almost as well as Marisnick in 2011, but folks who make prospect lists did not rank him nearly as highly. Be optimistic, but guardedly so.

DH - Marcus Brisker - Not really. He's an above average fielder and he will more likely spell the three fellows above while they take a break and DH rather than play here full time himself. but they have to find the guy some at-bats if they think very well of him (which buy most accounts they do)

Bench - Catcher Joe Bowen, infielders Brian Kervin and Kevin Nolan, outfielder Kenny Wilson - and only Wilson was EVER a prospect.

If I haven't said it enough, I'll repeat, there is much about this roster that is tentative. almost anything in the infield and the bullpen could be different. Mostly because most of the players filing those spots are just that - filler. I expect the D-Jays to struggle in the first half, with the great outfield unable to carry the team. But if a couple of the young gun pitchers are promoted for the second half things could turn around nicely.

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Lansing Lugnuts

Rotation:

Justin Nicolino - It's pretty much impossible to pick a #1 and #2 here, both had almost identical results in a tiny late-season sample at Lansing. But Nicolino had a mach larger sample of work at Vancouver (and was untouchable by the way) so we'll give the nod to the lefty.

Noah Syndergaard - Bigger, harder throwing, and right-handed, but somewhat less polished than Nicolino. He had really good results but some (Kieth Law for instance) thinks the off-speed stuff needs work and the implication is he'll move a tic slower.

Aaron Sanchez - Most feel he has the best stuff of the three, but his command was considerably slower to develop. It's not inconceivable that he could be help back in extended and assigned to Vancouver but most feel they Jays would very much like him to make the Lansing squad. One to watch in Spring.

John Stilson - I'm being really aggressive here because I don't know the status of his health, which was at issue last year. He's a guy who was a potential first round pick out of college in the 2011 draft with considerable upside before he was hurt and the Jays got a potential steal in the third round. He's already 21 and the Jays under Anthopoulos have demonstrated a pattern of starting higher round starting pitchers drafted out of college on the full season farm teams. As i see it, only his health would keep Stilson from following that pattern. Reports so far are good on that score.

Sam Dyson - Health wise, this is much more of a question mark - there's been a report or two of setbacks, again, for this chronically injured pitcher. Drafted in 2010 and less than 3 months from his 23rd birthday, IF he's healthy he pretty much HAS to be on a full season squad, if not to start the year then as soon as he's up to game speed. But there might be less than 50/50 odds that he will be that healthy.

Tyler Ybarra - Drafted in 2008 all the way down in the 43rd round, the 6'2" lefty was always a project, when he lost all of 2010 to injuries things looked bleak. But bouncing back for Bluefield last year, he was dominant - in relief at first but later moved into the rotation to close out the season. Because of that, and because he's now 22, he's at the front of the line of secondary candidates to jump into the Lansing rotation. if he doesn't start he will probably still make the team in relief and wait for an opening.

Mitchell Taylor - He probably needs something to break his way, because he's less likely to make this squad in relief, but he's a good enough candidate to be mentioned (especially with the injury questions above). A somewhat undersized lefty, Taylor nevertheless put up big strikeout numbers in Bluefield. It might seem odd to suggest a couple of Bluefield pitchers instead of guys out of Vancouver, but other than the Big Three guys at the top of this list, the rest of the Canadians rotations was undrafted free agent filler who didn't pitch all that well and are anything but prospects. If any of them pitch in Lansing it will strictly be as an OP.

Bullpen:

Dayton Martze - None of these bullpen guys are really names to watch, Ybarra would be the most exciting guy here if he ends up in the pen. But Martze did accumulate 71 K's last year and in the absence of anything else, look for the strikeout guy as the one to watch.

Brandon Berl - Of the guys who finished the year in Lansing, he had the best ERA and best SO/BB ratio in the bullpen. He's probably the guy who steps up to Dunedin if for some reason Antolin doesn't. But he's just a guy.

Eric Brown - 55th round draftee in 2011 was surprisingly effective in Vancouver and got a cup of coffee in Lansing at the end of the year.

Marcus Walden - per a source close to the team (see the comments) if Walden comes back healthy he has admirable velocity and still has promise, though at 23 this year he's on the clock and will need to advance to Dunedin in relatively short order to maintain some prospect hopes. Another source tells me the team thinks he, a starter in the past, may work better in the bullpen. We shall see.

Tyler Powell, Shawn Griffith - holdovers from last years, basically OPs - either of them might be cut before opening day in favor of any of the following . . .

Drew Permisson, Bryan Longpre, Phillip Brua - the better relievers in Vancouver, but just guys.

Andy Sikula, Ian Kadish, Jon Lucas - the better relievers in Bluefield - just guys.

Basically, the last 3 or 4 guys in the Lansing pen could be any 3 or 4 out of these nine guys (at least) and certainty at this level is impossible.

Lineup:

Catcher - Garret Maines - Statistically the most deserving guy, but all three of the reasonable candidates are too old for these levels and nothing to be excited about. the next hot prospect in the system is Santiago Nessy but I don't think they will find him ready for the full season teams yet. He's not yet 20.

First Base - KC Hobson - I still like this guy, but a .670 OPS and 25 errors at first base does not say "ready for a promotion." He will, however, be able to write his own ticket and a strong first half will surely get him promoted, it's not like there's anyone playing first at Dunedin to worry about.

Second Base - John Berti - drafted in the 23rd round out of college in 2011, he'll be 22 on opening day and that puts him ahead of the other potential candidates here. He was just okay in Vancouver last year, but he showed good speed and baserunning skills.

Shane Opitz - another position at which there are several options. the biggest name being Gus Pierre who flamed out when assigned here last year (making an astonishing number of errors) and who may have seen his last days at SS. Opitz wasn't overly impressive statistically for Vancouver last year but the reports on him were better than the numbers. None of the other candidates outperformed him or have better reports. One other name worth mentioning as a long shot is DJ Thon. He's very highly regarded, but a health issue (not an on-field injury) hindered his development in 2011 and it's an open question whether he will be ready for full season ball. The Jays would be ecstatic (and so would I) if he grabbed this job and proved he was ready for it.

Third Base - Kellen Sweeney - I'm a bit scared of this one since Sweeney only got into nine games that counted last year for Bluefiled before a freak injury sidelined him for the year. The buzz, however, is that the jays REALLY want Sweeney to win this job (presumably to make up for lost development time) So I'll give that the benefit of the doubt. One of the potential defensive alternatives for Pierre is 3B, but i can't see them throwing him into a new position on a full season team, he would definitely need extended Spring. one thing in Sweeney's favor is the incumbents who spent time here in 2011 were not impressive. Neither Bryson Namba nor Matt Nuzzo played well enough to earn a promotion, though they will probably be in the organization somewhere as filler.

Left Field - Chris Hawkins - almost certain to be the offensive star of this team, he's just beginning to show what he can do and he gained notice on more than one top prospect list. with the Three Amigos in Dunedin the jays can afford to let him relax and pile up numbers all year in Lansing.

Center Field - Kevin Pillar - No one in the Vancouver outfield impressed with their hitting in 2011, and Pillar led all hitters (yes including Hawkins) on the Bluefield squad in OPS. The difference in their status arises from Pillar being 2 and a half years older - he''s 22 already.

Right Field - Jon Jones - one of three marginal candidates to keep this spot warm for the day when Jake Anderson is promoted. He's the most experience of the three.

DH - Kevin Patterson - put up good numbers playing mostly 1B at Vancouver. And he's 23. There's not really another obvious candidate. He'll back 1B but mostly defer to Hobson's need to polish his defense since Hobson is the prospect.

Bench: Chris Schaffer and Jack Murphy, catchers; Gari Pena SS/2B; Matt Nuzzo or Bryson Namba 3B; Eli Boike, Nick Baligod, outfielders (the latter two will help stopgap in RF in some combination if Anderson's not ready for the assignment and look for a chance to distinguish themselves. And if I have to say it, being on the bench on Lo-A ball is the definition of "not a prospect."

Up next: An overview of the notable names in short-season ball, where roster placement gets really difficult to predict, mostly it will be an estimation of who we should expect/hope for in Vancouver and who's not quite ready for that yet.

First Look: Minor League Rosters, Part 1

[REVISED]

So, having come to a reasonable consensus about who the best prospects are, where will they be playing in 2012? to answer that question we have to look at what players are still in the system from last year, who's been added, and which players earned promotions. In the case of actual prospects, the team resists the temptation to "push" a prospect (which is directly opposite to the strategy of the former administration) and instead allows a natural progression of levels to take place driven by no other factor than the player's readiness. on the other hand, non-prospect (organizational players or "OP") might be moved up and down as necessary to fill out a playable roster even if statistical performance does not suggest it.

In the first part of this series I'll look at the two highest level teams, AAA Las Vegas and AA New Hampshire. In order to do so I will assume the following 25 man roster for the Toronto Blue jays, and i will not assume the exit of any player from the organization:

Rotation: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, McGowan

Bullpen: Santos, Cordero, Oliver, Frasor, Janssen, Villianueva, Perez

Starters: Arencibia, Lind, Johnson, Escobar, Lawrie, Snider, Rasmus, Bautista, Encarnacion

Bench: Mathis, Vizquel, Davis, Francisco

It should be noted that Snider over Thames is my preference/prediction, but by no means a sure thing, and also that the first two starting pitchers in Las Vegas are legitimate candidates to make the major league roster but there are factors which led me to omit them in Toronto. injuries, which will certainly happen, certainly open doors.

that said, let's begin.

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Las Vegas 51's

the Blue Jays have accumulated, as is their custom, an inordinate amount of minor league free agent pitchers, mostly relievers. for this preview I have selected what seem to me to be the most valuable assets to retain on the pitching staff. But I will also note the names of the other pitchers in camp who would either win a spot in Vegas or most likely be cut.

Rotation:

Jesse Litsch - crowded out of the bullpen by the acquisition of Cordero. given that he's the only RH candidate with an option, he figures to lose out. There's a not insignificant chance he could be traded but remember that on opening day in 2011 it did not appear that Casey Janssen had a role on the team but they kept him and injuries opened the way for him to obtain a choke-hold on a roster spot.

Kyle Drabek - ST wild-card, could force the jays to take him over Alvarez, could benefit from an injury to McGowan or someone else - no one really knows. it will be an interesting situation if the jays reach late march with six starters who deserve to get a spot in the rotation. I've a hunch that given Alvarez's youth and inexperience, and arsenal, the team might decide he would handle pitching in Vegas (mentally) better than Drabek and cast their lot here. this is, on the pitching staff, THE race to watch in ST.

Joel Carreno - Almost certainly when he pitches for the Jays long term it will be as a reliever, he's simply too far down the depth chart for it to be otherwise. But there's no real reason to not let him start in as long as he's in Vegas. Second in line (after Listch) to fill a bullpen need.

Chad Beck - Marginal guy as a potential starter, he got a lot of unexpected praise last year as a potential future reliever in Toronto. Crowded out (along with Carreno) buy all the imported talent, he's probably still on their radar. but like Carreno, his major league ticket is relief pitching. He starts here for the repetition, and because of the lack of ready options. both men have the flexibility of slipping into the pen when some of the AA guys start getting promoted if need be.

Aaron Laffey - Just an average mediocre guy. The Jays promised to bring him to ST as a starter, so logically, unless he has an out-clause if he doesn't make the major league team, he will start in Vegas.

Scott Richmond - if the Jays decide to work Beck in relief in preparation for potentially coming up to the majors, Richmond is in. If Laffey has an out clause, Richmond is in. Otherwise, he's on the bubble because he was really bad last year and his window is closing if not closed.

Bullpen:

Danny Farquhar - nominally the incumbent closer, as he's the best prospect in this group, but sometimes minor league managers elect to use a journeyman veteran to close instead.

Trystan Magnuson - the only other guy in this group that might be fairly called a prospect, and both of these are fringy in that regard, they both would theoretically fall in line behind Litsch, Carreno, and Beck on the shuttle to Toronto.

Andrew Carpenter - He'll be just 26 when the season starts (the youngest of the import depth pitchers) and his 24 IP in the majors scattered over four seasons have been pretty ugly. But, the real story is that for all that time, until last year, the Phillies had worked him as a starter. in 2011, pitching the full season in relief for the first time, he posted a SO/BB ratio of 5.91 (well more than double his previous rate) and an ERA of 1.79. He could be a very nice find if he can translate some of that to the majors.

Jesse Chavez - the 28 year old RHP is an OP at this point. He's generally pitches fairly well in the minors, but he's had several opportunities to back that up in the majors and failed.

Jim Hoey - basically an OP, the 29 year old at least had impressive K rates until last year.

Jerry Gil - Like Santos, the 29 year old Gil was once a well regarded SS prospect who simply couldn't hit after his first try at AAA. Obviously it took time (a lot longer than it did for Santos) for him to gain some level of control (in his first full season as a reliever, 2009, he walked 77 in 97 Innings) but last year he seemed to turn a corner. consider him a sleeper.

Robert Coello - OP from the Red Sox organization but most recently with the Cubs. Has respectable numbers in the minors.

Other pitchers in camp: Nelson Figiroa, Stephen Marek, Tim Redding, Bill Murphy, Garret Mock, Miguel Castro

Line-up:

Catcher - Travis d'Arnaud - obviously the premium prospect here and the guy everyone will be watching. one prospect observer said he'll be "knocking down houses" in the PCL. Barring injury, the key position player on this team.

First Base - Mike McDade - Was slamming in the first half of 2011 in AA before a knee injury knocked his foundation out. This assumes that with a healthy knee he regains a high level of production. also, he's regarded as the better fielder than the guy who played here last year.

Second Base - Luis Valbuena - He's out of options so the Jays might lose him on waivers before he makes it here, but if he does, he has more upside than McCoy.

Shortstop - Adeiny Hechavarria - he's in a catch-22 for outside observers. if he hits well, people will simply say it's the effect of the league, if he doesn't really impress with the bat folks will be convinced that if you can't excel here you can't excel anywhere.

Third Base - Kevin Howard or Koby Clemens - the former is definitely an OP being in his 30s, the latter almost certainly is but is still young enough to harbor some illusion of major league time. Clemens has actually been a fairly good hitter climbing the ladder and he might push aside Howard for the AAA job - he hit about as well as Howard in his AAA stint last year and he's five years younger - but whatever marginal value he has exists as a 3B. If he can't play 3B every day he's filler. If Clemens loses out here, he'll be in AA, if Howard loses out he'll be cut.

Left Field - Eric Thames - could be Snider if I'm wrong about the major league outcome. if it's indeed Thames, we will be among the league leaders as a hitter but the team will be watching for defensive improvement.

Center Field - Anthony Gose - In my view, there's an excellent case for letting Gose return to AA for a couple of months, at least, if not half a season, to continue work on offensive adjustments in a "clean" environment. with Rasmus under control for 3 more seasons, the Jays can afford a slower track. But everything I've read suggests he's ticketed for AAA.

Right Field - Moises Sierra - Here's a guy who might take a big offensive leap from "okay with potential" to "look at him go!" by virtue of the friendly hitting environment. There's clearly another step left to be taken for his output to catch up with his tools, but the trick for the team will be sorting real progress from PCL illusion.

DH - David Cooper - Repeats the level only because he really has no place to go. DH instead of 1B because McDade is a better fielder at has at least something of a reputation to defend. Cooper might get marginally better with more reps but likely wont lose all that much by a year at DH. He's the player on this squad most likely to see a spring trade.

Bench - Brian Jeroloman, Chris Woodward, Brian Bochock, Mike McCoy, Danny Perales, Richardo Nanita - OP all except maybe Jeroloman who has a whisper of a chance at a Kevin Cash type career.

Supposing a batting order of - Gose/Hech/d'Arnaud/McDade/Cooper/Thames/Sierra/Clemens(Howard)/Valbuena that's actually a pretty impressive squad for the PCL and they should have considerable success.

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New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Rotation:

Deck McGuire - listed first as he's older and more fully matured as a pitcher than the more-talented guy who follows him. if the Jays call a stop-gap guy from this group it might well be McGuire. Only had 3 regular season AA starts last year so a full season here is not at all out of the question.

Drew Hutchison - clearly the most highly regarded pitcher on this staff, if the jays call one of these guys for a long-term assignment it will probably be him. Alex has all but said Hutch is knocking on the door. Like McGuire, he only had 3 AA starts so there is no ticking clock.

Chad Jenkins - despite being a first rounder himself, Jenkins has piled up a lot of reviews which suggest a lower ceiling (back of the rotation, or bullpen) and thus he's overshadowed by the two men in front of him. He's an obvious trade candidate and might be better regarded against less impressive competition. A lot would have to go wrong elsewhere for him to make it to Toronto. however, he had 16 starts for the F'Cats last year and is an obvious candidate for a mid-season promotion to Vegas.

Asher Wojciechowski - spent the whole year in Dunedin last year, so there's a real chance he impresses enough in the spring to be added to the NH squad. almost certainly IF he's held back his stay in Dunedin will be short. He made some adjustments in May last year which were instigated by the staff but the results were disastrous. His ERA for May and June was 7.81 but that's not the end of the story. I'm unclear whether they told him to go back to what was working or if he finally found an adjustment that worked for them but over the rest of the season (after July 1) his ERA was 3.18 and the secondary stats support that. Logically that's enough good work to earn the promotion. If he has a good spring, particularly if Tepera doesn't, he's in AA. If for any reason he's not there on opening day he will be by June.

Ryan Tepera - Might not make this cut, but sources with the team say the Jays would like for him to claim it. Had mixed results in Dunedin last year and it's hard to imagine him being in a Blue jays uniform for more than a cup of coffee at best.

Yohan Pino - strictly an OP but he threw up an impressive 7.57 SO/BB ratio last season and stepped into the rotation when McGuire went down and dominated right through the playoffs. It's much more likely to have simply been a career year but he's worth having in your organization. If not in the rotation he'd be ahead of the OP listed below for a role in the pen based on what he did for them swinging into the rotation last year.

Randy Boone - recovering from Tommy John Surgery, may not be ready for opening day but if he were, he'd stand to either push Pino back to the pen or Tepera back to Dunedin. An OP at this point either way. Might "rehab" some in Dunedin where the competition is stiffer but he's too old to stay there all year.

bullpen:

Evan Crawford - A 25 year old LHP who was not only protected on the 40 man roster this year but who Anthopoulos has called by name as one to watch.

Matt Wright - The lefthander had a fine year at Dunedin last year and really ought to be in AA this year. I list him here out of respect for the excellent work he did in 2011, BUT a backlog of OP relief pitchers in the organization may create an issue. if I were in charge, folks like Willie Collazo would be ushered out the door and Wright would be in New Hampshire. But minor league journeymen serve other purposes besides providing innings or at bats, and who knows how the Jays view their roster construction. one things for sure, Wright has nothing left to prove in Dunedin.

Ron Uvideo - he's still just 25 and he just keeps hanging around but hes like a top-end OP more than a fringe prospect.

Boomer Potts - Missed all of 2011 with injury, likely nothing there to worry about, particularly since he'll spend a year getting back to speed and by then he will be 28 and in AA.

Wes Ethridge, Clint Everts, Bobby Korecky, Willie Collazo - all OPs

Alan Farina - legitimate prospect (as relievers go) but recovering from TJS most of the year so a

non-factor in 2012.

Line-up-

Catcher - AJ Jimenez - got a lot of good press this off-season but has huge shoes to fill for this team.

First Base - Jon Talley - Tally had a low batting average but solid power in Dunedin, which is regarded as a pitchers park and league, and some observers close to the organization feel the Jays want Talley to win the AA job. In the absence of tough competition the bar might be low for that. Tally (and possible competitor Sean Ochinko) have a catching background but with the catching depth in the organization there seems little reason to keep pushing them to stick there. Other legitimate possibilities include Sean Ochinko - described below - rule 5 selection Gabriel Jacabo, minor league free agent Koby Clemens (who is also a candidate at 3B in AAA as I've noted),

(A commenter rightly observes that Ochinko is a logical candidate at 3B as well (particularly if Clemens is assigned to AAA) and this possibility is closely tied to whether or not they challenge Jon Talley to win the AA job at 1B as some suspect is their plan. I have edited my views accordingly as the case was more logical than my original guess)

Second Base - Scott Campbell or Ryan Schimpf - I'm going to suspect they are both on the roster. how much time one or the other spends starting depends on whether Campbell can come back from serious injury that's derailed his career over the last couple of years. there was a time the Jays were trying him at 3B but I don't see that happening again. Schimpf is an OP and barring a miracle story, Campbell looks headed for that too.

Shortstop - Ryan Goins and Jon Diaz - again I divert from the usual starter/bench format here because the jays clearly highly regard Diaz as so very good with the glove it trumps his bad bat. I think Goins is the starter, but Diaz holds a John McDonald like role on this team. both seem like OP though either might well get a cup of coffee at some point.

Third Base - Sean Ochinko or Mark Sobolewski - I'm completely guessing here, but the multiple winner of the Webster Award would seem to have a bit more cred in the organization than his competitors for this job. Sobo is the incumbent but a .707 OPS last year was not the step forward the Jays were looking for.

Left Field - John Tolasino - once highly regarded by the team, he utterly failed to impress as the F'Cats left fielder in 2011 but there's no one knocking down the door to take it from him. He's an OP at this point and the Three Amigos are coming up behind.

Center Field - Justin Jackson - another complete guess, there's no one who's really worthy of it but Jackson can field the position and repeating Dunedin isn't doing anything for him. He started out hot in 2011 and raised hopes before pretty much going to pieces in June. About the only thing left to do is quit moving him around the diamond and plop him on one position every day and see how he does. one other option here is Keenen Bailli, a native of Cuba who joined the organization mid-season last year. He's only got 28 professional at bats but he's 27 so he's not an immature player. i don't know if his defense profiles in CF but it seems foolish to have a 27 year old in Dunedin, so one or the other of Tolisano or Jackson should logically get a challenge from him.

Right Field - Brad Glenn - Power hitting leader of the D-Jays offense in 2011, no real competition for this job.

Also in the mix for the outfield are Brad McElroy and Brain Van Kirk. The former has quality speed and the latter some pop, both were important offensive cogs in Dunedin, but both are 26 (that is, they were two years or more two old for that level) and are basically OP. If they beat out Tolisano and/or Jackson, you will know that those two's fast-fading claim to being prospects is fully extinguished.

DH - Some combination of Van Kirk, McElroy, or possibly Jacabo - there wont be a set guy here.

Bench - the only guy left that I haven't mentioned is reserve catcher (and sometimes 1B or DH) Yan Gomes. Who despite being buried on the depth hard has legitimate hitting power and decent defensive skills and deserves better. He's a real asset to the organization but no one deserves a change of scenery more.

Up next: Dunedin and Lansing.

Seek professional help!

Or, ya know, not.

As promised, I've compiled the prospect rankings from several high profile professional baseball observers into a "poll" style ranking. This is somewhat modified in that I have 5 lists which go to at least 15 names and two more that i wish to include which only go 10 deep. I ranked them on a 15 points for #1, 14 for #2 and etc system. which means, of course, that its mildly skewed by the two short lists.

What resulted, however, was a pretty reliable ranking. There's a clear drop off, between #12 and #13. Ten of those top 12 appear on both the short lists, and there's only two places in the ranking where the most generous assumption would change the ranking. Of the top 12, all of them appear on at least four lists and none of the rest do.

Twenty players in all were mentioned among the seven lists and they may comfortably be considered the consensus top 20, but given the short lists I'll give you a Top 12 list, and 8 honorable mentions - the latter not being reliably ranked because they are usually not on the shorter lists.

Afterwards, I'll compare this ranking with my own from early in the off-season.

The "voters" here are John Sickels of Minor League Ball, Nathan Rode of Baseball America, Marc Hulet of Fangraphs, Kevin Goldstien of Baseball Prospectus, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Keith Law of ESPN, and Patrick Ebert of Perfect Game. Total points appear in parenthesis after the name and position.

1. Travis d'Arnaud / C (104) - Out of a possible 105 points, the highly-touted catcher (who Law, for instance, ranks the 6th best prospect in all of baseball) missed a perfect score by a single point.

2. Jake Marisnick / OF (90) - a top 3 prospect on 6 of 7 lists, he's still the #3 position player even on the 7th list.

3. Anthony Gose / CF (87) - Like Jake, Gose was hurt by a lower ranking on one list out of the seven. He was in the top 4 on the rest, and was the only player besides d'Arnaud to be ranked #1 on any list.

4. Drew Hutchison / RHP (74) - the pitching prospect on this list that you are most likely to see in a Blue Jays uniform this year, Hutch was still ranked behind the higher-ceiling but more distant prospects on some lists.

4. Noah Syndergaard /RHP (74) - the highest total among those young guns went to the big Texas righty who many feel isn't done growing as a man or as a pitcher.

6. Justin Nicolino / LHP (71) - Very close behind the two right handers come two left handers. The four were clustered together all 4 within five slots on 4 of the 7 lists.

6. Daniel Norris / LHP (71) - would have been #4 but for having been left out of Keith Law's Top 10 altogether. He was in the top 5 on 5 of the other 6 lists.

8. Deck McGuire / RHP (55) - fell between 7 and 10 on all seven lists.

9. Aaron Sanchez / RHP (45) - Was in the top 12 on six of the seven lists. He might have been on all seven but he didn't make the top 10 on one of the short lists so who knows?

10. AJ Jiminez / C (31) - In the top 12 on 5 of 7 lists. Including both short lists. The name on this list that surprises me most. I would have guessed the pros would have had him somewhere around 14-15 rather than the top 10.

11. Adonys Cardona / RHP (25) - it's encouraging to see the bonus baby already working his way up to the top of the list.

12. Asher Wojciechowski / RHP (19) - Eight starting pitchers in the Top 12 is most impressive.

Honorable mentions: Dwight Smith, Jr. / OF (10), Carlos Perez / C (9), Chris Hawkins / LF (8), Jake Anderson / RF (8), Adeiny Hechevarria / SS (8), Kevin Comer / RHP (7), Joe Musgrove / RHP (3), Matt Dean / 3B (5)

It's worth noting that 6 of the top 20 came from the 2011 draft, 12 of the top 20 were drafted in the last two years. Here's my list (adjusted due to the trade of Molina), published before any of these was known to me, from November 24, 2011:

1. d'Arnaud

2. Marisnick

3. Gose

4. Hutchison

(4. Molina)

5. Hechavarria

6. Syndergaard

7. Nicolino

8. Norris

9. Sanchez

10. Perez

11. McGuire

12. Crouse

13. Jimenez

14. Knecht

15. Cardona

16. Dean

17. Comer

18. Osuna

19. Jenkins

20. Wojciechewski

In retrospect, if the experts are to be believed, I'm somewhat too high on Hechavarria, Crouse, and Knecht. This is one of the flaws of basing a big chunk of your opinion on statistical results. Crouse (and to a lesser extent Knecht) kept pace well with Marisnick. If numbers were the primary measure one should assume a similar skill level but the scouts must see something different. I also gave too much credit to Jenkins (I really never had top-20 faith in him, I was simply compensating for what i thought was an unsupportably low view on him as a prospect.

Of the four guys I sold short, Hawkins, Anderson, Smith and Musgrove - the first three of those, in order, were the next three on my list after the top 20. At that time, i hadn't heard a ton of praise for Musgrove and figured he was a budget draft but lately I've heard more and obviously the pro-evaluators thing there's something there.

My on-going list has been revised accordingly.

Oh, and just for a little cold shower on your prospect-gasm, read this.

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Hot off the wire, Kevin Goldstien has BP's Top 101 Prospects list for your consideration.

Blue Jays on the list:

#16 - Travis d'Arnaud

#28 Jake Marisnick

#54 Daniel Norris

#68 Anthony Gose

#93 Noah Syndergaard.

For comparison, the Rays have two players on the list (Matt Moore is #1 and Hak-Ju Lee is #65), the Yankees and Red Sox have 4 each. Also of note - The Padres' highest player is #38, but they have an incredible 10 prospects on the list. The A;s have 7 (the highest at #39), the Pirates have 6, and the Rangers and Rockies join the Jays with five. On the flip side, six teams have only one.

To illustrate how different guys see things differently, here's the Blue jays who made Keith law's top 100:

#6 - d'Arnaud

#42 - Hutchison

#47 - Marisnick

#59 - Gose

#96 - Sanchez

Most striking, obviously, is that Hutchison didn't make the BP list. The BA list should be coming soon with somewhere between 4 and 7 Blue Jays likely to make the cut.

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Coming soon - an overview of what the minor league rosters project to look like as we count down the final few days before pitchers and catchers report.

Top Prospect Update

Okay, Before I get to the main body of this post, this is just a shout out post which will be deleted once it (hopefully!) produces the desired results:

I have a post on my list of things do to which involves remarking upon the various prospect ranking of high-profile sites. The one i'm yet waiting on is Keith Law. BUT in the mean time, i have a problem.

I need SOMEONE who bought toe Baseball America Handbook to give me the rest of their Top 30 ranking for the Jays. I'd love to be able to afford the book but I CAN'T (frankly, any month in which the electric bill gets paid is a win), I'd love to read their whole scouting report on the system and everyone in it but i don't have that option. but I can't do the post I want to do properly without knowing the rest of their top 30.

Now, with that out of the way, on to business. It is my custom each year (albeit i apparently failed to post one last year) to do a final pre-season revision of my Top Prospect list. This is to reflect any off-season changes to the system, as well as any new information that has come across the wire. It may seem odd to have a fall list and a spring list, but my list is always evolving even when I don't tell you about it!

So, this is the most recent iteration (not in reverse order since the previous list is out there).

1. Travis d'Arnaud /C - seems near unanimous consensus here.

2. Jake Marisnick /CF - I'm not alone in preferring him to Gose (slightly)

3. Anthony Gose /CF - meaning no disrespect.

4. Drew Hutchison /RHP - some of these others have a higher ceiling, but he gets points ofr execution at a high level

5. Daniel Norris /LHP - an awful lot of good things being said about this guy

6. Noah Syndergaard /RHP - apparently still has room to get better

7. Justin Nicolino /LHP - as good as the numbers would imply

8. Aaron Sanchez /RHP - numbers were not as impressive but stuff is there

9. Adeiny Hechavarria /SS - Dropped a bit more because the pitchers are SO good not because I believe in him less.

10. Deck McGuire /RHP - lower ceiling than the kids, really good chance to reach it.

11. Carloe Perez /C - took a lot bigger hit from poor year than was warranted I think

12. Michael Crouse /RF - could be a CF if not on the same level with Jake.

13. Antonio Jimenez /C - I might be the only one who still has him behind Perez.

14. Marcus Knecht /LF - could be a RF but Crouse and Marisnick are better

15. Adonys Cardona /RHP - stats skewed by relief work, as starter he was excellent. May be top 10 next year.

16. Matt Dean /3B - Kevin Goldstien confirmed my hunch about this guy. So does BA.

17. Kevin Comer /RHP - Possibly under-rated in the shadow of Norris, this ranking a testament to the depth.

18. Roberto Osuna /RHP - most don't yet fully appreciate how good he potentially is.

19. Asher Wojciechowski /RHP - Started and finished well around a mid-season stumble.

20. Chad Jenkins /RHP - in another system, might get more noise. but ceiling is limited.

21. Chris Hawkins /LF - defensively a LF, offensively just getting started.

22. Jacob Anderson /RF - another player who could take a big leap in the next year.

23. Dwight Smith, Jr. /OF - Might be better than I think. Being generous to compensate.

24. Moises Sierra /RF - I question his offensive ceiling, but sometimes the toolsy guy blows up.

25. Dicke Thon /SS - giving him a mulligan on the poor health year.

26. John Stilson /RHP - will be a major steal if he can stay healthy.

27. Christian Lopes /SS - may end up a 2B but I have a hunch about this guy.

28. Sean Nolin /LHP - took a big leap last year, now on the radar.

29. Joe Musgrove /RHP - I was initially cool to this guy but he's gotten some love in the off-season.

30. Joel Carreno /RHP - not to downplay him, but he'll be a reliever if he's a Jay, and there's only so much value in relief.

31. Mike McDade /1B -completely assuming the 2nd half was all about the bad knee

32. Wilmer Becarra /CF - based on how well he was regarded before the signing

33. Dawel Lugo /SS - similar to the reasoning above.

34. David Cooper /1B - gets NO love from observers, I can't buck ALL that opinion.

35. Kellen Sweeney /3B - reportedly the jays still love the guy, needs a healthy year.

36. Griffin Murphy /LHP - important for him to step up and maintain his place in a crowded field

37. Mark Biggs /RHP - considered a big "get" at that spot in the draft.

38. Mitchell Taylor /LHP - overshadowed by others, but had a very nice year.

39. Evan Crawford /LHP - Alex loves him, but as with Carreno, being a reliever suppresses value.

40. Jario Labourt /LHP - relatively under-the-radar signing, could pay off nicely.

41. Jeremy Gabryszwski /RHP - the draft choice I know the least about. But a 2nd rounder deserves respect.

42. Jesus Gonzalez /RF - another high profile Latin signing.

43. Tom Robson /RHP - has some developing to do, but there's upside there.

44. Yan Gomes /C - may never realize abilities in our system due to crowding. But he's got talent.

45. Manuel Cordova /RHP - one more in the July Latin haul.

46. Alan Farina /RHP - will spend the year recovering from TJS.

47. Tyler Ybarra /RHP - very dark horse, but don't forget him.

48. Santiago Nessey /C - value somewhat tied to whether he can stay at the position.

49. Anthony DeSclafani /RHP - some reports suggest he's more raw than other 2011 draftees.

50. Gabriel Cenas /3B - still very young, will take some time.

Now. Some of yall hook me up, m'kay?

Stupid Question

I'm sure I'll be called an apologist in some quarters for this, but dude just pissed me off. in Monday nights State of the Franchise event, one of the questions from the floor went as follows:

Jonathan: "I would have bought a shirt tonight, but the name Fielder wasn't found up there so I'm, uh, a little disappointed. In all seriousness, my passion has turned to anger, i've been a long time supporter of the Jays, I can stand here tonight and basically say that I'm not sure I'm going to be back next year as a fan. Because I am disappointed, I would have expected some on-field betterment of this season's club and if it wasn't for Fielder, I don't see why Carlos Beltran wasn't signed to back up Jose Bautista in the lineup. It was only a two year deal at 12 million dollars per, not a lot of money, right? ... You harped on making a bunch of trades and not going the free agent route - I think I've only seen one trade. We've seen the bullpen betterment but where's the young starters? I mean, uh, uh, we've seen Washington add a young starter, we've seen Cincinnati add a young starter, Boston went out and got Andrew Bailey and we...uh...I think we're in the #2 position for our minor league system right now and if we do have all this talent, why aren't we seeing the trades? Where are the guys?"

Jonathan, with all due respect, you're a dumb ass. Or at least you ask dumb ass questions.

Alex and Buck said "good questions" - Bullshit. they were just being nice to you because they have to.

let's break it down:

"I don't see why Carlos Beltran wasn't signed"

Because Beltran gets a say. You can't just go out and pluck a guy like drafting a minor leaguer.

"I think I've only seen one trade."

This off-season, sure. It's easy to say "make a deal" without being specific or realistic. Alex has said he wants to add premium talent when he trades. He did so with Lawrie, he did so with Excobar, with Rasmus, with Morrow, and with Santos. But there's not a premium talent available every week or every month. As good as he is, Alex can't simply call up Seattle and say some magic words and make them hand over Felix. Even Pineda went for a guy who was the equivilant of our dealing Lawrie - is THAT the trade you can't wait for?

"but where's the young starters?"

ON OUR TEAM! Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, Cecil? Hutchison and McGuire on the cusp. sure, lust after Gio Gonzalez and Matt Latos - but a roughly equivilant set of Blue Jays to the package that got Latos would be d'Arnaud, Snider, and Drabek. Still interested?

I get the real sense that there's a "grass is greener" narrative. Someone else's young starter is better than our young starter, their young SS is better than our young SS, whatever it is -" go out and bring us fresh meat." Sometimes YOUR young player is the guy you want.

"Boston went out and got Andrew Bailey"

THIS is the one that broke down my resistance and convinced me to write. The Jays traded for a closer two, one who's under team control for SIX more years, while Bailey will be out there looking for the 8 figure contract in TWO years. Our guy pitched for less than 30 innings in the minors, and has only two years in the majors yet he was every bit as good as Bailey (who pitched ~300 innings in the minors) last year. We got the better guy and made the better deal! And what does this have to do with starters?

"why aren't we seeing the trades?"

Basically this is just "trade for the sake of trading" Bring us fresh meat. The reality is that there wasn't a smart deal that really made the team better out there. Six of the nine positions in the field don't need to have a bright young talent added because one of them is Bautista and the other five HAVE a bright young talent (or two). There was no bright young talent at 2B to be had, and the best 1B who was dealt was Anthony Rizzo, who's not considered really a premium guy. The bullpen is packed out with talent, and there are more young pitching that we have spots for. Let's say you go out and deal for Gio Gonzalez and have to trade Henderson Alvarez to get him - is that smart? how much better will Gonzalez be than Alvarez over the next five years? I'll wager he won't be, at all. And that's not counting the other guys you'd have to put into the deal.

Basically, I'm glad Jonathan isn't our GM.

Starry eyed Optimism

This is going to be sort of a rambling, chain-of-thought post, not my highest grammatical achievement. Still, it's on my mind.

I know people will point and laugh, I'm used to it, but here's what I keep coming back to - what might we expect from the Jays next year compared to what was successful in other cities last year? Comparisons are always tricky but still . . . consider this.

I matched up the potential starters as well as i could where direct comparisons were not possible, and the figures cited are xFIP

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Front part of rotation RHP -

Shields (age 30) - 3.25 xFIP: His career year, coming off his worst year. The two combined look much more like his career figures except the K's got some higher.

Morrow (27) - 3.53: Has about .4 run higher career ERA, but more stuff, a higher ceiling, and he's 3 years younger. I see no reason why Morrow couldn't take a similar step forward in 2012 as Sheilds did in '11. No one would have penciled Sheilds in for a sub-3 ERA a year ago.

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Front part of the rotation LHP-

Price (26) - 3.32: actually pitched better in '11 than in '10 even though ERA went up. True front of rotation high ceiling talent. Can only get better.

Romero (27) - 3.80: As Shields is to Morrow, so Romero is to Price. Producing similar results, but with noticeably less raw stuff and upside.

Taken as a set, though, there's little difference between the talent and ability - and potential for producing similar results - between their set and ours, in my opinion.

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Oldest pitcher among those remaining-

Neimann - (29) 3.73: Basically average guy (Jesse Listch has a better career ERA+)

McGowan - (30) 4.38: Injury prone is an understatement, but virtually legendary ability before the injury and Jays people say he's pretty much all the way back. No way to know how long he will last but EVERY reason to think that while he's out there he's noticeable better than Neimann.

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Similar age-

Hellickson - (25) 4.72

Cecil - (25) 4.43 [4.03 in 2010]

This is the comparison that a lot of you will scoff at. But Cecil, even in his "bad" year had a better FIP and xFIP than Hellickson, has a slightly better BB/9 and also a better K/9. Cecil had a worse H/9, which cost him last year when he got the ball up, but on actual results they are very close - far more so than the ERA would suggest. Now, the flip side is that Hellickson comes with better scouting reports and shinier clippings than Cecil ever had. One may safely assume he has more stuff and a higher ceiling. but if we pair these last two sets, as we did the first two, it's arguable that on stuff, McGowan exceeds Neimann to a similar degree that Hellickson exceeds Cecil.

The slight edge going to the Rays because one can't assume McGowan can last all year. But assuming health, as with the 1-2 set, the outcome in '12 should display a very marginal difference between their two and our two.

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Young and unproven:

Moore - (23) ??

Alvarez - (22) 3.38

Moore is considered the best pitching prospect in the game, Alvarez is quite good but he doesn't carry THAT reputation. The only question here is whether Moore will pitch up to his reputation in the first year. BUT let's remember that the premise here is not what will happen next year, but what happened last year. Moore did not significantly contribute to the Rays record last year. The fifth busiest starter for the Rays in 2011 was Wade Davis. while one has to acknowledge the potential that Moore will out-preform Alvarez, one also has to expect Alvarez will be better than Davis was last year.

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sixth option-

Davis - 4.82

Drabek - 5.13

One might argue similar potential as a prospect, they were similarly ranked in the minors, but Drabek has the edge in age (2 years) and Davis has the edge in not having the difficulties Drabek had in his first year. But taking the 2011 results as a reference, it's not crazy to suggest Drabek could rebound to the level Davis produced, if he were in the rotation.

Ultimately, I have no answer for Matt Moore if he pitches up to his press, but Price was every bit as highly regarded and he was just league average in his rookie year so it obviously can happen. Otherwise, where is this vast gap between the Rays staff and the Jays? I think it's quite overstated.

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Jumping to the bullpen, let's look at the ERA and xFIP of the Rays' relievers who are still on the team:

Farnsworth - 2.18 / 3.23

Peralta - 2.93 / 3.88

Ramos - 3.92 / 4.85

Howell - 6.16 / 4.35

Gomes - 2.92 / 4.51

Russell - 3.03 / 5.50

McGee - 4.50 / 4.35

compared to:

Santos - 3.55 / 2.69

Cordero - 2.45 / 4.14

Oliver - 2.29 / 3.24

Frasor - 2.98 / 3.94

Janssen - 2.26 / 3.04

Villianueva - 4.04 / 4.48

Perez - 5.12 / 3.79

Acknowledging that McGee has the potential to get dramatically better, I still contend the latter set is superior to the former. And the idea that cumulatively they could match or exceed what the Rays got in relief last year is easy to accept.

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Now the offense:

Catcher - the Rays are going with the 37 year old guy who's career OPS+ going into 2011 was 62. The Jays are going with the guy who, for all his offensive flaws, posted a 90 as a rookie (and who's not an "out of left field" fluke like Jaso was). I like our chances of getting better results in 2012, but on the point of whether this Jays team can do what the 2011 Rays did statistically, JP was way better than Shoppach was. Here's the collective line JP and Jeff have to best:

.194 - .274 - .333 - .607 - I'm going to say that's in the bag.

First - Adam Lind brings a 106 into the season, which seems short of matching Kotchman's 128 last year. Except when you consider that Kotchman brought a career mark of 91 into last season. CAN Lind throw up an OPS better than .800 this year? Sure he can. Will he? Who the heck knows. Here's the cumulative like for 1B for the '11 Rays:

.288 - .357 - .388 - .745 - Move 50 points from OBP to SLG (I know that the higher math says one is more important than the other) and there is no reason at all Lind can't be expected to do that well, and likely better.

Second Base - Ben Zobrist put up a 132 last year, which is better than Johnson's career mark. I'm not going to pretend Johnson can do anything like that this year. However, Zobrist wasn't the only fellow playing 2B. Sean Rodriguez spent some time there too, and that drug the cumulative line down to something more reasonable:

.262 - .343 - .451 - .793 - now go look at Kelly Johnson's career line.

Shortstop - the combination of Ried Brignac (abysmal) and Sean Rodriguez (average) fell far short of what Yunel can reasonably be expected to do. In fact, the combined offense of TB shortstops in '11 is a line John McDonald could challenge:

.193 - .256 - .282 - .539

Third - Longoria wasn't himself for most of the year, but it's the year he had in the season in question and Lawrie is certainly capable of matching it's value. Certainly he MIGHT regress, but I'm speaking here of reasonable optimism. it's not unreasonable to suggest lawrie could throw up an .850 OPS. I think Lawrie is our Longoria. and of course, Longoria was hurt for the first month or so of the season, so the cumulative production at 3B for the season was an easier bar for Our Hero to reach:

.231 - .335 - .466 - .801 - anyone NOT want the over on that?

Right - Matt Joyce had a fine little year, but Jose ran-roughshod over it, more than enough so to make up for any minor negative elsewhere.

.261 - .338 - .436 - .774

Center - B.J. Upton's OPS was .759, in 2010 Rasmus' OPS was exactly 100 points higher. No one can say for sure he WILL return to those levels but he certainly CAN.

.257 - .341 - .440 - .781 - I, for one, am very confident Rasmus will out-do that line.

Left - yes, the future is Jennings, and it's an open question whether snider will step up and contest him on who is better (I think he's at least his equal in talent, but whether he can overcome the effects of having been rushed...) BUT this comparison is with last years Rays, for whom the primary FL was good old Sam Fuld, who finished the year with a .673 OPS. Thames can easily beat that, let alone Snider.

.241 - .313 - .406 - .720 - not a high bar to clear.

DH - EE already did better in 2011 as a DH than Damon did for the Rays.

.260 - .320 . 424 - .744

The 2012 Jays are not just better than the 2011 Rays offensively, they are WAY better. The counter argument being that the team totals for the 2011 jays are not much higher, but this is a different team: Hill is gone, Lawrie and Rasmus will be with them all year, and since I'm arguing "possible" and not "guaranteed" - it's reasonably possible snider busts out and not inconceivable that Lind rebounds somewhat.

I think the bullpen, if, on average, they pitch to their abilities, is clearly better.

Which brings us right back around to the rotation.

The Blue Jays were one full run (of ERA) behind the Rays in this department in 2011, and not even I would deny they have some stepping up to do. But I, for one, think they are capable of it. That doesn't necessarily imply that they will be better than the Rays in 2012. A full season of Jennings and Moore make potentially a great difference, as does a rebound from Longoria and the return of Carlos Pena (though I'm not as impressed with Pena as many are). I wouldn't be terribly shocked if both teams passed the Red Sox, however. I expect all three teams to land somewhere between 87 and 92 wins and that could be in virtually any order (and the best of those could be 8-10 games behind the Yankees).