The Roundup

Sometimes you have to lose a battle or two in order to win the war and knowing that we won't have to see Frank Thomas again until August goes a great distance towards taking the sting out of last night's 3-1 defeat.

The Hurt Feelings struck out (like a little girl) on an AJ fastball in his first AB, doubled in his second, then came out of the game with a sore knee. ESPN says he's been bothered since sliding into home two weeks ago in Cleveland and tweaked it last night, presumably running to second at half speed on the double. I'd say the odds of him appearing again in this series range from unlikely to extremely unlikely.

On to some unpleasantness.

We all thought the Jays were going to be a lefty-mashing squadron because that's the way it's been since pretty much as long as we can remember (2005?). Between this year (.605) and last (.848), we've dropped a staggering .243 points of OPS against lefties as a team, and it's not just a result of the departure of Frank Thomas (fine, and Reed Johnson) and the injury to Vernon Wells. Unsurprisingly, the key cogs in our lineup that usually can be counted on to rake against lefties have really been shitting the bed this year.

Some numbers for our uninjured regulars against LHP (Career v. 2008):

Rios: .289/.349/.464 (.813)*; .260/.296/.360 (.656)

Hill: .301/.367/.454 (.821); .256/.388/.359 (.747)

Rolen: .282/.405/.511 (.916); .259/.333/.296 (.630)

Stewart: .298/.374/.419 (.793); .282/.341/.359 (.700)

Overbay: .279/.316/.433 (.749) ; .208/.250/.226 (.476)

* but .900+ plus over his past two "breakout" seasons

That, my friends, is why someone like Greg Smith can absolutely handcuff the Jays time and time again. The Jays are 5-9 when a lefty starts for the opposition. If you're thinking that it might be a BABip aberation, you're wrong. It's just plain old collective suck. And it's shocking to see that the rot has spread to Rolen, who's looked absolutely fabulous in his month with the club. Overbay had actually hit lefties quite well over his career, but is off to a horrible start against his sinister-handed brethern this year.

To make matters worse, the one guy who had been getting 'er done against lefties, Vernon Wells (.333/.412/.433) is likely a non-factor offensively for the rest of the year because of that broken wrist. And to his credit, Wonder Boy is actually doing well, too, but we all kind of thought J-Mac would've been worked into the lineup against lefties...

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but it would appear that the Jays might be the first to face Joba Chamberlain, starter, early next week. Ian Kennedy strained lat has opened a spot in the Yankees' rotation and the pancake-faced Joba is in the process of being stretched out. I would expect him to be on a very strict pitch count, so it might be a good night to leave the bats on our shoulders and let him run out of gas before ripping shit against Kyle Farnsworth.

Putting a bat in the volatile Theo Fleury's hands, not a great idear...

All-Star Game--sorry, Red Sox v. National League game-- voting is a farce. Either come up with a ballot box stuffing software program or just boycott the whole process.

A very special note: The Oracle is doing a PREGAME Wednesday's with JP at 8:30 tonight, so call in and let'er fly. I just might ask whether he really knows who Jason Bay is or not, that guy is two kinds of awesome.

ELSEWHERE:

* How do you say "shoulder fatigue" in Japanese?

* Yankees sign Ben Broussard? Panic in the streets of Boston!

* Fantasy notes: Jay Bruce = Hunter Pence 2.0?

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

First, the apologies.

Perhaps I was overly quick to assume that Gibbons was rotating his few good players through rest days for no particularly good reason, but it came out yesterday that there's been a flu bug going through the clubhouse. Why this wasn't stated a few days ago is unclear, but anyway, perhaps Gibby should team up with Don Cherry to shill for Cold fX? Sorry, skip! I'll never doubt you again.

Last night's JaysTalk was pretty solid because there was actual stuff to talk to JP about rather than the typical nitpicking/Chicken Little routine of most callers. John Lott of the National Post provides a quick and dirty summary here. The good news is that Scott Rolen will most likely be activated tomorrow. The bad news is that JP really sees no rush to promote Adam Lind (hence the above pic) and will leave him to demolish AAA pitching while Shannon Stewart trolls for walks, interspersing them with the rare single, on the big club.

Yes, and true to my prediction yesterday, he did mention that Shannon Stewart is a "lifetime .300 hitter."

Now, JP has a weird thing about not wanting to make players feel like they're entitled to anything for fear that it might undermine their work ethic or competitive drive. I don't mind that. It is, however, blatantly obvious to all that Lind is "the guy", but I suppose we're going to have to wait for an injury for him to get his turn. If, as JP admits, the team is getting on base at a great clip but isn't scoring because of a low SLG%, you'd think there'd be all the more reason to callup a youngster with a 1.000 OPS in AAA. I find this massively disappointing.

Wilner has been one of the loudest voices in the draft Barry Bonds movement, so it's no surprise that he concludes that JP probably wants to sign him, but Godfrey and Ted Rogers/money are obstacles. Overbay's struggles were mentioned, but in his case--not Frank Thomas' of course--20 games is too small a sample size to jump to any conclusion. Mmmhmmm.

Jesse Litsch is not about to lose his job, according to Bastian. When Gibby blew up on him the other day it was kind of like a dad finding out his son has been smoking weed: he felt really let down, but he'll probably let things slide, because, you know, they're blood. And because everyone goes through that phase.

Blair reveals that the press in TO and TB, the players, and everyone aside from a less than sellout crowd thinks it's an awful idea to play regular season games at a spring training facility. It's actually kind of offensive, really. The Bosox and A's get to play in front of 50, 000 screaming Japanese fans in Tokyo, the Dodgers and Padres get to play the first MLB exhibition game in China, and we play in front of a crowd that's possibly 50% under the age of 10. Just a detour on the way to Space Mountain.

Blair also shares our concern for the precipitous decline in Lyle Overbay's power production.

Are the A's going to sign Frank Thomas or what? MLBTR says there's more than one team expressing interest. It would amount to a massive bitch slap to JP from his mentor Billy Beane if the Big Shit Disturber did indeed go back to Oakland.

On a related note, Marc Hulet at Fangraphs expects the Jays to promote Travis Snider aggressively. He figures JP wants to prove his drafting prowess to one and all, adding a second impact player drafted under his watch to the roster (Aaron Hill being the first). There's that Marcum guy, too, but interesting nevertheless.

ELSEWHERE:

* We were lucky to play the Tigers when we did, because now they're wringing the necks of the opposition like supper chickens.

-- Johnny Was

Fantasy Baseball Week 3

The Toucans Of Whoopass were defeated in a landslide last week. The epic beatdown was issued by The Huck Fleners, and the score for the week was a horrific 8-2-2 in favour of Huck. The Toucans didn't hit, and they didn't pitch, which sounds a hell of a lot like the Jays.

The knockout punch was delievered by Todd Wellemeyer. We have a moves limit (which I hate, by the way), restricting assholes like me from streaming position players and starters every day. Anyways, I picked him up, but then dropped him upon learning Jon Rauch would be closing. We lost Rafael Soriano to injury, so I panicked and grabbed Rauch, while dropping Todd. Huck, in his infinite wisdom, picked him up. As fate would have it, Matt Cain would face off against Wellemeyer. And then this happened...

Troy Glaus is stinking up the joint, so I grabbed Votto who's on fire to be the utility guy. He's probably going to start now that he's shown Dusty that he refuses to clog the bases (1 BB, 50 AB). So I figure if he's got a spot in the lineup, and he's convinced Baker he won't clog the bases, he'll probably get a spot in the middle of the lineup. Atta boy Votto - fool him into thinking you're not going to clog the bases to get your job back, and then get back to your patient ways.

For Week 4, the Toucans face off against ShaveThoseSideburns. The Toucans fell to 8th after that bitchslap by Huck, so winning this week will put us back in the top 6.

Last night's Jays game...

I don't hate Gibbons - I'll joke about firing him every now and then, but he's not as bad as most fans think. But yesterday he had some pretty weird decisions, as noted earlier by Johnny.

Look, I get it - Wells needs an occasional day off. But having just released a guy who was your fulltime DH, would it not have made a ton of sense to just DH Wells? Doing that makes the lineup a hell of a lot deeper, and prevents one of the super-scrubs from hitting in his place. An OF of Stewart - Rios - Stairs is significantly better in every possible way then a Stew-Rios-Inglett OF.

But then in the 6th, as Johnny mentions, he brings Marcum out after throwing damn near 100 pitches. And he goes to Tallet for an inning and a third. Tallet, the guy who's pitched a shitload of innings to this point, and can be relied upon in key situations...you brought in him against RH hitters, when you're down by 4? Isn't that what Frasor was for?

I thought it'd make just a tiny little bit more sense to use Frasor for two, and then bring in Camp or something. Save Tallet for when we can actually win a game.

DH Ideas

Johnny brought up some other names of potentially useful players who could be used to boost the offense now that Thomas is gone. A name I'd like to throw out there is Kevin Mench. Texas signed him to a MLC - assuming he can still hit LHP like he always could, I think it'd be a terrific idea to send them a pen arm or something for Mench. As recently as last year, he posted a 901 OPS against LHP, and for his career he's got a 924 OPS vs LHP. A Stairs/Mench platoon, a Lind/Mench platoon, or even an Overbay/Mench platoon would be a huge upgrade for this team against LHP. And considering he's on a MLC, it's not like we'd have to throw a good pen arm their way.

Twitchy.

Thomas Mad, Thomas Released

I've been pretty busy lately, and I'll admit I haven't been following much Jays news. Ok, I knew Thomas was pretty pissed, but imagine my surprise today at work when I find Thomas has been released.

There's really nothing I can add to the situation that hasn't already been said. But I wouldn't be doing my duty (haha) if I didn't at least weigh in on the situation. So with that in mind....

Thomas' bat speed may have declined. I don't know that for sure - maybe it did, maybe it didn't. That isn't the issue to me. I think he could have eventually hit his way out of it, as he has the past few years. Yesterday, I thought benching him was a brilliant tactic to light a fire under the slugger's bulky ass. Piss him off enough that he'll get aggressive, and crush the first pitch he sees into the CF windows.

What I do know, is that Thomas' tendencies, and overall game plan prevented him from coming out of a slump. I love how he's still got terrific discipline, an elite batting eye, capable of taking a ton of pitches and getting into hitters counts. The problem, is that pitchers were exploiting his patience by getting ahead in the count knowing he would not attack the first pitch. The Texas game, for example, where Padilla threw 2 fastballs down the middle, as Frank took, being patient. Then he strikes out on one out of the zone, in a pitchers count.

You see, when you're in a slump, taking pitches is the worst possible outcome. Teams aren't afraid of you, and get ahead in the count. Once this happens, you're down 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and you feel like the at bat is over. By not being aggressive, and getting behind in the count, Thomas was always hitting in a brutal situation, where he'd never get a pitch to hit.

Let me say that I agree 100% with benching a player who isn't performing. The message it sent was play or rot on the bench, and it's a wake up call to a team that needed one. So kudos on JP & Gibbons for having the cohones to do it.

But releasing Thomas? I don't know. I just don't know yet. It helps the defense if Lind is called up to play LF. Bad as he may be, he's better than Stairs. It helps the bench - when Thomas is off we're essentially down a position player, as he can't play in the field. It probably gives the team more balance against RHP, as Thomas only hit to the tune of a 796 OPS vs RHP, so odds are even Stairs would be a bit of an improvement going forward on offense. Frank was a lefty killer, and the Jays should still be ok against lefties. And if they're not, well, I'd rather be strong against RHP, which is 75% of the leagues pitching.

I think earlier in the blog, Thomas was mentioned as a clubhouse cancer. Here's Wells' take on the situation:

Center fielder Vernon Wells praised management for finding a quick resolution to the situation.

“I think it’s better for (Thomas), too,” Wells said. “He gets a chance to have more time to possibly pick up with another team, with us it may give some of our younger guys a chance to come up.

“We haven’t been the best team so far this season. We definitely have some improvements to make.”

Sounds like the team may be better off without Thomas, though I may be reading too much into it.

Still, I hope this becomes a defining moment for the team, which will bring them together and also act as a wake up call that poor performance will be be tolerated by no one. For a team that underpeforms like no other, and plays down to their competition, this is a huge opportunity for the Jays. I really hope this brings everyone together, and ends up becoming a positive through an extended winning streak, one for which the Jays haven't put together in years.

I hope Thomas signs with a team and shows that he can still perform, but more importantly, I hope that the Jays are a better team at the end of the day.

Twitchy.

Show A Little Finesse

After two pretty sad losses to two, left handed, finesse type pitchers, I began to wonder why the Jays struggled. After all, the Jays were facing two Southpaws! The Jays kill Southpaws! Damnit Gibbons, this is all your fault, isn't it?

Just to make sure it was Gibbons fault, so I could chime in with all the Gibbons playa haters, I checked the 2007 team stats against Finesse and power pitchers.

I will fully admit that using last years stats may not be the best way to figure it out. Wells wasn't healthy, Glaus is no longer on the team...but it should still give some indication of the teams strength going forward.

2007 vs finesse: 30/30 in OPS with 625
2007 vs power: 24/30 in OPS with 722

Hold the phones there kiddos - a 625 OPS against Finesse pitchers? The team drops their OPS by nearly 100 points of OPS when they faced a finesse pitcher in 2007. Does this trend stay true in 2008?

2008 vs power: 11/30 in OPS with 840
2008 vs finesse: Turns out ESPN doesn't believe the Jays faced a finesse pitcher...

HOWEVER, the team OPS is 725 right now. So if we assume they have an 840 OPS against power pitches, it's highly likely that the OPS against finesse pitchers is in the low 600's.

So what does this show?

First off, it isn't Gibbons fault. The Jays are absolutely crushing the ball when the opponents are bringing the heat. The problem arises when a finesse pitcher (like Smith, and I guess Eveland...he threw what, 90, 91 tops?) comes out and dazzles the Jays with a myriad of pitches in the mid to upper 80's.

There isn't a ton of evidence in 2008, but this squad seems to be incapable of hitting anything slower than 92 MPH. It's almost ironic in a way - coming into the season everyone thought Thomas was done and couldn't hit a 95 MPH fastball. Turns out, him and the rest of the team are the exact opposite. They could probably kill a guy like Verlander, a RHP who throws 95-98 MPH. But throw them a lefty who couldn't hit 90 if his life depended on it, and the Jays might as well throw out McDonald at the clean up spot, cause as a team they're not doing much better against those "crafty" finesse pitchers.

In another month or two when there's enough evidence one way or another on finesse pitchers, I'll check back to see if the trend continues.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

In contrast to the more triumphal back-slapping at mlb.com, Geoffrey York does an illuminating feature on how the first China Series was received in Beijing over the weekend. York has been my favourite Canadian journalist since he was on the Globe's Moscow desk years and years ago and he's capable of providing a sober, sports-cliche free look at the Herculean effort of selling a foreign, alien sport to the world's next superpower.

The average Chinese spectator found the sport incomprehensible, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Both spring training games between the Padres and Dodgers were sold out or nearly sold out, but it would seem that a good number of tickets were handed out free. Visiting Korean fans were clearly the most-chuffed about the whole thing, mostly because their hero, Chan Ho Park, was there with the LA contingent. Andruw Jones was was either enthralled or baffled by the Chinese cheerleaders, none of whom appears to be bigger than a size two.

I find the MLB's Chinese strategy simultaneously weird and cool, so I do hope they repeat it again in the future. If the Jays are involved I'd gladly volunteer to go along and help translate or serve as a tour guide. Call me!

Back in North America... that I fully agree with Richard Griffin is probably a good indication that the apocolypse is upon us, which is kind of sad since I was looking forward to a massive St. Patty's day hangover tomorrow.

Uncle Griff implies that we shouldn't be worried by The Big Hurt's Manitoba cold spring (2 for 28 so far), because he's been working hard, getting more ABs than usual, and is fully healthier than in recent years. Griff writes:

"They don't need to be worried about me," Thomas said. "They have other things to be worried about than me. I've been down this road many, many times before. I've had slow springs. I know exactly what's wrong and I'm speeding up everything right now. I'm being a little bit overly aggressive and not getting enough balls in the sweet spot."

As if a reminder is necessary... spring training is a time of experimentation as much as it is one of preparation. Guys are tinkering with their swings, trying out new pitches, and so on. Spring stats are pretty meaningless as a result. Moving along.

Mike Rutsey of the Sun is the worst kind of hack sports journalist and I only mention his name to let you all know that I'm ignoring anything from him in the future. He first drew our attention a week ago when his lede for a piece was: "Brandon League has the best set of teeth this side of Silken Laumann." What that little attempt at humour had to do with baseball I don't know. Purple prose of the flamboyant sort runs throughout his work.

Today Rutsey writes that Shannon Stewart has the edge on Reed Johnson in the battle for a spot in left field as Matt Stair's caddy. Ok. It's the Sun, so it's not like we should be expecting anything intelligent, but this throw away line is positively Griffin-esque:

Then there is Ricciardi's never-ending lust for offence and Stewart is a career .298 hitter with more pop. His defence isn't as good as Johnson's, but defence has never been a major issue with the GM.

Is there something wrong with offence? Doesn't scoring more runs than the other team help win games? Stewart is indeed a career .298. The only problem is that he's 34 and hasn't exceeded his career norms since an injury-shortened 2004 campaign. If the club needs a right-handed hitting platoon partner for Matt Stairs, shouldn't recent splits against lefties be of greater relevance than overall career numbers? And JP doesn't care about defence? Are you serious? After acquiring Scott Rolen? Leaving Aaron Hill at second when he proved himself a gold glove-calibre defender there? Because he's given J-Mac's starting job to David Eckstein so we don't have the equivilant of a National League pitcherin the lineup? Really?

I bite my thumb at you, sir.

On a related note, Reed Johnson is still a Blue Jay.

ELSEWHERE:

* Anyone in Yankeedom expecting the right of primae noctis with CC Sabathia when he becomes a free agent at the end of this season is getting ahead of himself. The big lefty is non-plussed about the idea of playing in New York and really, who can blame him with the scoundrels and miscreants running roughshod through that organization?

* Ex-Jay Kevin Cash is the Bosox backup catcher this year after Doug "I catch knuckleballers" Mirabelli got cut. Cash has been a pretty miserable hitter as those of you who remember him know, so any long-term injury to Jason Varitek means the Beantowners are basically inserting a National League pitcher into their lineup. This of course brings us back to a pretty atrocious early season 2006 trade by Theo Epstein that sent Josh Bard, a good-hitting catcher, and Cla Meredith, a pretty solid young reliever, to the Padres for, hrrrrrm, Doug Mirabelli.

* The Cubs still believe they can pry Brian Roberts away from the O's before the end of camp. We thought Giants GM Brian Sabean was slow on the draw, but the McPhail/Angelos regime is absolutely glacial. Each veteran dump brings the O's closer to a 100-loss season. Earl Weaver would be spinning in his grave...

-- Johnny Was