So what now?

In all of the trade rumour articles, AJ is consistently mentioned as "the top starting pitcher" available in trades. If that was the case, you'd have to believe the Phils would have been willing to offer Cardenas in a package for Burnett.

Obviously the big difference between AJ and Blanton comes down to two things - club control and money. Blanton costs 3.7 million this year, of which the Phils will pay a prorated 1.5-1.8 million. They also control him for another two years, which is a huge plus. AJ would cost them a prorated 6 or so million dollars, while having the ability to opt out at the end of the year.

But for a team that currently tied for first place, you'd think acquiring the superior talent would be more valuable to the Phils. If they were to sign AJ to a long-term deal, in order to avoid the opt out, they'd have Pat Burrell's 12 million coming off the books in 2009. Not that it's a good move to let Burrell go, but I get the feeling they just don't appreciate his value and won't pay him what he's worth. While Will & Johnny have recently suggested Manny as a DH for next year, I'd like to suggest Pat Burrell. He's usually got an OBP near 400 and a slugging above 500 - he's the bat this team needs.

But back to AJ and the Phils - if they wanted to win, it'd make more sense to go with the guy who has a 108 career ERA+, and is capable of putting up a 115-119 ERA+ in a home park that is known to be good to hitters. They wouldn't have to worry too much about home and away splits like they do with Blanton, who's been a career 4.78 ERA pitcher away from the pitchers park in Oakland (compared to the 3.79 in Oakland for his career).

Blanton has a 100 career ERA+ - he's an average starting pitcher. He's not a strong GB pitcher, so he'd be bound to give up more HR's in Philly. He'll be an upgrade over Adam Eaton, which I guess makes them a better team, but upgrading from horrible to merely shitty is nothing to be happy about. Blanton's still going to cost them games because of his inability to strike out hitters, and his reliance on defense (for which the Phils aren't that good).

What does this mean for the Jays? Despite all of AJ's talents, it's very likely he won't be traded before the deadline. JP has never made that big trade at the deadline, and he's had several candidates which could have been traded (Wells in 2006 before he signed the contract extension would have been creative). If the Phils were willing to give up a solid 2B prospect for Blanton, and not for AJ, it paints a pretty clear picture on how high clubs are on Burnett.

If the Jays really want to trade Burnett, I think it might help if they give a 72 hour window to give the team a chance to amend the opt out by adding extra $$ for AJ. No, they shouldn't have to do it, but that opt out is going to be the biggest reason why AJ has a better chance of opting out when the seasons over than he does of being traded. You do that (the 72 hour window), and you get the right to ask for superior prospects. And if you can get the extra prospects, than it's worth it to let the team talk to him before hand.

Twitchy.

Trade Talk

Colour me somewhat surprised by the Phillies trade for portly righty Joe Blanton yesterday if for no reason other than the fact that it was done on the down low without any word filtering through to the rumour mongers. Billy Beane could have sold higher on him in the offseason, but keeps with the plan of moving arms before they get too pricey.

The 27-year-old Kentuckyian is a proven eater of innings (and coconut creme donuts? No?), but he's not really the sort you'd really want to take into the playoffs as your number two starter. He's controllable for a couple of more years and didn't cost the farm, so I suppose Pat Gillick is abiding by the campsite rule in his final year as Phillies GM. Personally, had I been in his shoes I think I would've gone for the higher upside that is AJ Burnett and gambled all on a deeper playoff run this year, but what are you gonna do?

Turning homeward, Mark Zwolinski at The Star is reporting that Burnett most definitely does not want to be traded. The Cubs comments, the sarcastic hat tip? I guess we all read too much into that.

"It seems like there's only bad things get written. ... I'm always saying that I'm a Blue Jay and my loyalty is to this team and you still see some people writing stuff like my heart's not in it," Burnett said.

"I think I had a quote in the paper last weekend about I still had a Blue Jay on my chest and on my hat. Then a writer wrote, `Yeah, but not in his heart.' And when you got a guy pitching on three days' rest, you got a guy that came in the day after his bullpen to pitch an extra-inning game, take the ball and throw, I don't want people to question that (heart). You know I'm here.

"Just because my name's out there and all this stuff, and I made one mistake talking to a Chicago writer ... I enjoy being a Blue Jay and that's where I'm at. That's where I plan on being."

But hold the phone, "I'm a Blue Jay and I plan on being here for the rest of the season"? I don't mean to over-analyze these words, but nowhere in this profession of loyalty to his current club does he address the opt out issue and his status for next year. He's still got one foot out the door.

MLBTR lists the Mets, Cardinals and Chisox as teams that could still be interested in AJ, but JP won't be actively shopping the enigmatic righty because it will supposedly drive down his value. And I guess there's nothing wrong with waiting until the very end of the month when there's absolute empirical evidence as to whether the 2008 Jays have any Hail Mary shot at doing anything significant this year before making a move.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that an Burnett trade:

* would provide $4 million of salary relief
* open a slot in the rotation to audition a younger arm that will actually be with the team next year
* and most importantly, probably net the club something better than a very late 1st round pick in the 2009 amateur draft that you'd get as FA compensation after an opt out

It still makes sense, people.

-- Johnny Was

Janssen Done for '08

There's only one way to express how I feel about this unfortunate turn of events: Tabarnak ma caliss.

I was trying to be cautiously optimistic that we'd see Janssen back in the bully this year, but news arrives from the Star that Mighty Casey "will have surgery for a torn labrum in California next Tuesday or Wednesday, and is gone for the season."

JP isn't pushing the panic button, but Batter's Box says he's looking to trade for another starter. I'm both fearful and excited... If JP went big here he'd also cover his ass for AJ Burnett's departure via the old opt out. Should JP trade key prospects now, he could always recover new ones by moving AJ at the deadline, too.

If JP does want to go big, his mentor Billy Beane could offer up Joe Blanton or Rich Harden.

It's hard not to like Blanton, but he's got a lot of mileage on his 27-year-old arm. On the plus side, he's got good control and eats alot of innings. On the negative side, he didn't really have homer issues in Oakland, but he has middling K/9 IP numbers and puts a lot of balls in the air. He's only had three starts in Toronto, an absolute gem, a quality start, and a real stinker. You'd have to pay up, though, because he's under club control for three more years. Rotoworld says the Yankees are expressing interest, but Beane wants the moon and the stars. They should be alot more desperate than we are and I can't say I'd be sad to see the A's rob them blind of prospects

Rich Harden... Rotoworld confirms that he is available if healthy. At $4.5 million for this year and a club option for $7 million in '09, you're not going to get skinned dollar-wise. His injury-riddled career (13 starts over the past two years) probably drives his price down lower than Blanton's. Is he the next Roy Halladay or the next AJ Burnett (or Kerry Wood)? He's Canadian, too, but this is a baseball trade designed to improve the ball club, not a marketing decision designed to sell tickets.

I'd go with Harden.

On the FA market, there's Kyle Lohse, Jeff Weaver (god no!), and a bunch of guys you'd have to be totally hammered to sign like Bruce Chen, Ryan Drese, Casey Fossum, Zach Day and various other shit leopards.

We either cover this internally (Purcey, Romero, Parrish), go with a weak FA (Lohse), or make a major trade. We shall see...

-- Johnny Was