Dear God, are you listening?

Most of the hot stove chatter we read amounts to nothing as journos crank out copy even though there's not much of substance really happening, so take Mike Rutsey's report in the Sun that JP is willing to go 5 years on a new deal for AJ Burnett with a grain of salt. (Read Bastian recycle the same story if you like.)

Did JP actually really say he'd go down that road? It's pretty hard to tell given that most of what he says has to be run through an Enigma machine for deciphering.

Rutsey's money shot:

Five years may not be the first preference of general manager J.P. Ricciardi either, but it's a concept he hasn't ruled out....

"I wouldn't say it scares me. I'd say we'd be open to talking about frameworks but right now we don't have anything on the table in terms of years or money," Ricciardi said.

Slam dunk, send the UN weapons inspectors home.

Does this really mean we'll see AJ back in town on a ludicrous new deal? No, no it doesn't. For all we know JP's just blowing smoke up Rutsey's ass--I defy you to find any real meaning in anything he was quoted as saying--in an attempt to drive up AJ's price for the Yankees or Red Sox.

I understand that this cloak and dagger shit might be part of the game, but JP's cover as a practioner of the black arts was blown long ago and no one really believes a word that comes out of his mouth anymore. All this sort of thing--be it telling Bastian that there are no big free agent position players on the way or this shit teasing/horrifying us with the prospect of retaining AJ--really does is get people agitated and pissed off. The maxim that there's no such thing as bad publicity doesn't hold here; ticket-buying fans (hi, remember us?) need some reassurance, or, at the very least, no obtuse comments from the GM that stoke our pessimism.

Really, for the good of the community, is it too much to ask that JP impose a media blackout until something is about to happen or actually has happened?

Let us pray.

***

Other shit: No Manny, JP says to Bastian. Move on, guys. Would've been fun, but really the odds of that were never higher than those of me finding myself in the middle of a Naomi Watts-Monica Belluci-Gong Li sandwich.

Some roster moves: LHP Ricky Romero, RHP Robert Ray and LHP Luis Perez were all added to the 40-man roster. Romero, soon to be The Southpaw's resident favourite up and comer, you know. Ray is a guy Will likes who has been making slow but steady progress and put up decent numbers in AA last year. Perez is starter who keeps it on the ground (5 HR in 212 pro innings?!?) and posted about a K an inning in A ball last season.

-- Johnny Was

The Question of Manny

Stoeten over at DJF made note earlier in the week of the persistent mention - particularly by Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman - of the Jays being part of the discussion of where Manny Ramirez suits up next season.

Now comes Jay Onrait blogging at TSN on this subject and the case is a compelling one. Now, since I have stated publicly that they Jays, given their 2010 salary obligations, need to avoid long-term high-dollar contracts but Manny is in a special category.

On an emotional level, without any consideration of budgets, 98.7 percent of Jays fans would be thrilled with the signing of Manny. The reasons why he would be willing to join the Jays have been discussed at length and the transformitive effect he would have on the Jays line-up are so obvious as to make a discussion of them unnecessary. Suffice it to say he would instantly become the best hitter in the history of the franchise.

The question is, as it has always been - money.

Manny and his agent Scott Boras dismissed the Dodgers' offer of 2 years and $45 million and don't seen any more impressed with the suggestion of a third option year that takes the deal to $60 million. Boras had earlier implied a 5 year/$85 million deal was a reasonable goal. That's $17 million a year, so let's see if we can work with that.

As I noted Wednesday, if one assumes the jays payroll will not be allowed to exceed $100 million over the next 3-4 years, the Jays have about $19 million in hand right now and will likely add a couple more when Frasor and Tallet are moved along. In 2010 they only have about $3 million to spare. After 2010, several high value contracts come off the payroll. if we assume Halladay is extended before then and make some reasonable guesses about the shape of the roster, it seems likely that they would be somewhere in the low 80's (albeit with no obvious internal option for shortstop unless Jackson is rushed through the system). After 2011, it's useless to speculate except to note that in general terms a lot of positions will be filled by inexpensive players. One may note in passing that Wells' opt-out is in play after 2011 too (and don't assume he won't exercise it).

So, here's the deal I propose to work with:

Four years plus an option for a fifth (since Boras seems hung up on five years). $19 million a year for the first four years, and a $4 million buyout of the fifth year, or $10 million in the fifth year. That's at least $80 million and potentially $86 million.

What does it take to afford this? Well, let's assume that a natural normal progression of payroll on a "static" budget (i.e. all payrolls - except the Marlins - have a slight upward drift) would be about 5% year-over-year.

2009: A 5% increase over 2008's $98 million would be a $103 million budget. With $81 million projected for current players, and the opportunity to gain a couple million by moving Tallet and Frasor, that puts the money available at $24 million. Give $19 million to Manny and you have about $5 million to work with for other needs.

2010: A 5% increase over 2009 sets the budget at $108 million. A reasonable projection of the current roster, plus Manny making $19 million, would total $116 million. But as noted in the previous article, Overbay and Ryan are easily replaceable players who could and should be dealt before spring training 2010 begins. That saves $17 million and gives the GM $9 million to work with should the team have other needs (and frankly, the needs between 2009 and 2010 should be very minor barring a big injury).

2011: Add another 5% and you are at $113.5 The presumed low-80's figure, plus Manny, equals about $100 million. That team would project, as of what we know right now, to have a rookie 3B and continued uncertainty at SS but again, it doesn't project to be a payroll that is exorbitantly more expensive than 2009 and 2010. There is some uncertainty in this projection (the further out you go the more guesswork is involved) but not $13 million worth.

2012: Another 5% takes you to $119 million. for the sake of this discussion, I'll assume Wells doesn't opt out after 2011 ( I won't go into the reason here why Wells might opt out, but it's very much more possible than most people assume). As a VERY rough guess, looking ahead to who the Jays will try to retain through their arb years, having Manny here would lead one to think that the payroll for 2012 would have to be somewhere in the $120's. That would be somewhat over budget if Wells stays.

Quibble the numbers a little either way - take out your calculator and run it again with a 3% increase or a 7% increase if you want - the point is that if Rogers is willing to commit to a 5-7% annual increase in salary, the jays can afford to give Ramirez and Boras what they want.

Now, the calculation is over my head but, will Ramirez drive enough revenue to wash out that payroll increase? Will he put enough more fannies in the seats and etc to account for some $40 million more in payroll (over that hard $100 million cap) spread over 4 seasons? My hunch is that the answer to that question is yes. If not all of it, enough of it so as to make the difference negligible.

So, bottom line? Yes - the Jays can afford it. They can afford to outbid the other mentioned contenders for Manny Ramirez without much payroll gymnastics at all. And they should. Even if one argues he'll decline in the out years, he's a guy who's OPS+ routinely runs in the 150-170 range. If you get two years of that, and two years in the 120-130 neighborhood, your money is well spent. Of course there is a chance that he'll fall completely off the table by 2012 and you'll have $19 million (plus the buyout) tied up in an unproductive player - but you might have won a World Series in the meantime too. The Jays ownership risk more annual salary in 2012 and beyond on a much lesser hitter when they signed Vernon Wells - it would be criminal if they blinked on doing so for a hitter of Manny's caliber.

Note well, though - this is NOT an argument for spending big money on any other free agent. throwing an eight figure salary at a Burnett or a Ben Sheets or a Derick Lowe would be insanity. no one else out there on the market can change the completion of a team the way Manny can.

Once the pretense of perusing Burnett is thankfully finished, the Jays should step to the front of the pack on Ramirez and get it done.

~WillRain

UPDATE: I don't want to steal anyone else's good idea - so rather than edit it in I will only say, read the comments on this one as Ari has really added to this idea in his comment.

Hot Stove (In)action

There's really no joy in passing along some news that pretty much quashes the hopes of the eternal optimists who wanted to see Manny Ramirez in a Jays uni in 2009, but one must face the facts, keep your chin up, maintain a stiff upper lip, and so on.

Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports quotes JP saying:

"Manny is not priority No. 1. I can't even say he's priority No. 2," Ricciardi said Wednesday. "It would really be a long shot for us to bring him to Toronto. He's on our radar, but maybe not on our radar like some people will report.

"I don't see us getting involved in unbelievable, astronomical numbers. We would not go down that path."

In actuality, priority no. 1 is pretending to do other things that make it look like you're trying to improve the team, while priority no. 2 is secretly praying that you fail to accomplish priority no. 1.

Rather than add the best available free agent hitter (at an exorbitant cost), Ricciardi will instead focus on re-signing AJ Burnett (at an imprudent cost for someone with his injury track record and age) and a lesser DH like Raul Ibanez (sure to re-energize the fan base). You are forgiven for being underwhelmed.

Also of note:

The Jays' current plan is to use Adam Lind and Travis Snider in the left field and DH spots. Ramirez could alternate at those positions with one of those players, perhaps enabling the Jays to trade the other.

Oh yeah? As is sometimes the case with Rosie's pieces, it's hard to tell whether he's paraphrasing JP or just offering some informed speculation of his own. If you spend more than 3 seconds pondering that, you really need to get back to whatever it was you're supposed to be doing before you came here.

Personally I really don't think it's a great idea to have Snider pretty much skip AAA and pencil him in for the big league roster in the spring, but then again surveying the divisional landscape I'm really not too hopeful about the club's chances next year, so it might not matter.

Ricciardi said he is "not convinced" that the Jays will even need to spend heavily in the free-agent market. The team needs a shortstop and leadoff hitter, but Ricciardi said that he was happy with Marco Scutaro at short and would "really need to be knocked over" to replace him.

I think most of us have all pretty much given up hope of finding a "real" shortstop, whatever that means, in the short term and would rather go with the status quo than spend bad money on an over-rated oldster like Orlando Cabrera. I know some of you are gay for Rafael Furcal, but just like the Manny thing, you're going to have to let it go. And Aaron Hill's not changing positions so Inglett can man second, either. So brace yourself for more of the same, but slightly worse.

I'm not at Tao-levels of depression quite yet (seriously, should we be calling the Suicide Watch?), but I can very easily see this offseason shaping up as one where AJ is lost and not replaced and no showtime DH brought in so Rogers can line the pockets of its wool gabardine trousers with the millions of dollars left over. Yes, I know that that was technically a run on sentence.

-- Johnny Was

Manny vs Holliday vs Burrell

I threw in my 2 cents on Johnny's Manny vs Holliday, but I'll expand my thoughts over here. Realistically, I don't think trading for Holliday is reasonable without giving up 2-3 of our big prospects or current major leaguers, and by that I mean any of: Marcum, McGowan, Snider, Lind, Cecil, JP Arencibia. If you think I'm making this up, check out this article by Jayson Stark:

• Happy Hollidays: Clubs that have felt out the Rockies about Matt Holliday's availability say that if they do decide to dangle their biggest star, they are not using last July's Mark Teixeira deal as their blueprint. Instead, the Rockies are telling other teams that:

Holliday

(A) They don't need quantity. Since their young core group is basically in place virtually all over the diamond and their farm system is in good shape, they don't need to rebuild their system with one trade, as Texas did.

(B) They would want "impact" back, but aren't asking for a specific number of impact players. They could settle for a two-player package if it's the right two. They could even, conceivably, take one player back -- assuming the one player was in the Jay Bruce/Evan Longoria/Cameron Maybin mega-impact category.

(C) They wouldn't even necessarily ask for young players. The only condition would be getting back someone they could control longer than Holliday, who can be a free agent after 2009.

(D) If they move any bats at all, they would be in a mode to trade Holliday or Garrett Atkins, but not both. All of this, by the way, is contingent on the Rockies finding themselves clearly and hopelessly out of contention next month. And there are no signs at the moment they've even remotely considered themselves done.

Well, the Rockies did find themselves out of the race, and are currently 9 games back. So had they gotten a deal for "impact" type players, one would assume Holliday would be gone. And like I said earlier, unless you're willing to deal the impact type prospects for Holliday, you might as well kiss that theory goodbye.

Sorry Johnny - Holliday's a terrific player, and exactly what this team needs, but Dowd wants the top guys in the system, not Cecil and filler. Which is too bad, because Holliday would make a great fit in TO.

As for Manny - there's another important reason why I don't want to sign him - again, I'll take some quotes from another article by Jayson Stark:

"It really bothers me," one GM said this week of the Manny-mania lovefest that has unfolded in L.A. "What he did in Boston was criminal. Now he goes there, and everything's OK? No, sir. It doesn't change the fact that how he got there was criminal."

....

If Manny Ramirez wanders into the free-agent market this winter and gets anything close to the four years and $100 million he believes he'll get, think about the message that would send, the precedent that would set. It would, in effect, be an open invitation to every selfish superstar in baseball to pull a Manny. Act up. Stop hustling. Stop trying. Refuse to play. Make up an injury. Whatever you have to do to get back out there on the free-agent market. It's all worth it. Why not? If bad behavior winds up delivering a $100 million reward for Manny Ramirez, why wouldn't two or three, or 50 or 100, other great players think, "Heck, it worked for him. Why not me?"

Normally I wouldn't care about about stuff that can't be quantified - if it can't be put into a statistic I'll ignore it. But they bring up a good point - if Manny can do what he did and get paid, then others are going to do the exact same thing. And I don't want the Jays to be the ones to 'reward' him for what he did in Boston.

As for Burrell - he's a free agent after the season, and I hope the Jays are smart enough to make him a fair offer (probably in the 16-20 million range over several years). He'll be a type A free agent, but hopefully AJ will be one too so in the end we should break even.

Burrell's known to be a poor defender, but he ranks quite high on ZR for LF with enough playing time. He's fourth on the list with 885. I assume he must have quite the arm because he leads qualifying LF with 12 outfield assists. It's possible he could even play LF over Lind, but I'd have to watch how he does in order to really compare the two. Otherwise, he'd be an excellent DH.

Fun facts:

• He's currently hitting 264/388/546 (934 OPS, 138 OPS+).
• Over the past 3 years (05-07) he hit 266/392/503 (895 OPS).
• Since 05 his lowest OPS+ is 122
• Since 05 he's hit between 29-32 HR's a season.
• During the 05-07 split he hit lefties to the tune of 294/434/552 (986 OPS) and against righties he hit 257/374/483 (857 OPS).
• This year his vs RHP/LHP splits are nearly identical - 932 vs RHP and 942 against LHP.

So why is Burrell the better option?

Holliday is the better hitter, and maybe even a better fielder. But there's no chance we acquire him without giving up several of our top young players. And I don't know if that's something we're really willing to give up. I don't see it happening, to be honest.

Manny - He's a terrific hitter, but he shouldn't be rewarded for the crap he pulled in Boston. I realize how lame it is, and that Ramirez has a 149 OPS+ between Boston and LA. But if you're not willing to sign Bonds because of the crap he pulled, I find it hard to make an argument to sign Ramirez for that bullshit.

And yes, I know this is the type of lame argument that gets laughed off by FJM.

Burrell - He's not on the same level of Manny or Holliday, but he's a terrific hitter nonetheless. He clogs the bases, he takes his walks, and he's a pretty safe bet to hit 30 HR's a year. He hits righties, and he crushes lefties. And while some would argue that his home park in Philly helps his production, if he came to TO he'd still be in a pretty good hitters park so you wouldn't need to worry about a drop off in production.

Burrell is exactly what the Jays need right now. Git-R-Done.

Edit: I'll be out of town for the next week, so I hope all of you have a nice end to the summer.

Twitchy.

Manny v. Holliday?

In addition to being a cyborg sent back from the future to kill John Connor while hitting .340 for the Rockies on a yearly basis, Matt Holliday is a Big Scary Bat that's probably going to be on the trading block this winter as our confrere at DJF, Parkes, so kindly brought to our attention the other day.

We've got the ball rolling about on off-season roster moves and you the fans want to talk about this, so let's talk about this...

Some factoids, in bullet points:

* Holliday is under contract for 2009 at the modest price of $13.5 million, which might not even be enough to bring in one of the "B" DHs like Jim Thome or Jason Giambi this offseason

* Scott Boras is Holliday's agent and they will be looking for a "franchise player"-type deal the Jays cannot afford (because of Vernon Wells...), so it's one and out if he is acquired via trade

* Holliday, 29 to start next season, has been OPS-ing well over .900 on the road this year for those who dismiss him as a Coors' Field creation. His cumulative OPS+, park neutral, is about 150 over the past three years. That translates into Canadian.

* He's also probably the most slam dunk Type A potential free agent you can imagine, and if he walks at the end of 2009, there will be sweet compensatory draft picks. Sweeter than the caramel at the centre of a Skor bar.

* Travis Snider might be ready for spring 2009, but will almost certainly be a more polished hitter after a full year at AAA, pencilled in for full-time ML duties in 2010

Do you see where I'm going with this? While it's "only cash" to sign a free agent DH, you do end up giving up a compensatory draft pick along with laying your money on the table. And let's not forget that the sum you pay out for a free agent is going to be millions in excess of the cost of Holliday... for an inferior hitter who can't play defense, but that's another argument. So you do lose "something" by going with a free agent rather than trade.

If you do trade for Holliday instead you don't lose the pick in addition to gaining another one when he walks at the end of the year. You do lose prospects in the trade package that brings him in, but you'd at least be setting yourself up nicely to bring in equivilant talent in the next draft.

What would the Rockies be looking for as a trade package? Reasonable expectations would probably be something along the lines of what Pirates' GM Neal Huntington got in return for Jason Bay at the deadline. I know Bay's not the same calibre of hitter as Holliday, but he was controllable for 1 years + 2 months at the time of the deal whereas it's only one year for Holliday. Those prospects who went to Steeltown again? Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, Andy Laroche, and Bryan Morris.

Laroche was/is a blue chipper who became the Buc's starting third baseman, Hansen is a non-descript reliever who has shown little of note in 2+ partial seasons in the bigs, Brandon Moss is looking like a more-than-serviceable 4th OF (no offense there, you get plenty of ABs in that role in the NL), and Morris is a 21-year-old reliever in A ball whose a long way off. Essentially what you're talking about here is a 4 for 1 prospect package made up of one "A" level talent and 3 guys you'd be charitable to call Bs.

The Rox will be impolitely rebuffed if they ask for Travis Snider, so there's no point even mentioning him here. I think I'd also assume the Lind is off table as well after earning himself a permament spot on the 25-man roster.

The Rox greatest need for 2009 is, of course, pitching, while they'd probably also like to upgrade at 2B and would likely be interested in an OF to take Holliday's place. I would also note that their only reliable lefty in the pen, Brian Fuentes, is likely to depart via free agency. A guy like Brian Tallet would not be useless to them.

I'd reckon that if they really want to seriously enter into negotiations with the Rockies on Holliday, the Jays have to be willing to entertain a package centred around either Scott Campbell or Brett Cecil. Those are real, legitimate blue chippers and you're not going to reel in an elite talent like Holliday without sacrificing one of them. The other 3 names you add on are interchangeable, but we could live without arms like Davis Romero, Brad Mills, or pretty much any other pitcher in the system. Major leaguers Jason Frasor and Brian Tallet are not useless, though they're going to be redundant here in 2009.

You might be thinking that Cecil or Campbell + is just too much to stomach for one year of Matt Holliday, and if that's your opinion you're entitled to it. I disagree. But keep in mind that Manny might well prove cost prohibitive (and he's 37 going into next year) and also ask yourself whether *declining, high-injury risk* sluggers like Giambi or Thome would even entertain the idea of coming to Toronto after what happened to Frank Thomas. Hell, the Mariners might even throw a wack of cash at Raul Ibanez to stick around, taking JP's favourite C-lister off the market.

Basically what I'm saying is that it's a big assumption that the most coveted free agent DHs are even signable and trade might be the only means of getting the bat that makes the Jays really and truly competive in 2009. Or you can just batten down the hatchs and wait for 2010. That's not a horrible idea, either.

Looking at the big picture, I'm not at all averse to making a major push for Holliday and would probably prefer that to seeking a FA solution. Personally, I think the risk/cost of going after one of the elderly free agent DHs is probably greater than that of selling off one of the organizations top 3 prospects and add-ons (who can be replaced with compensatory picks) for a year of Matt Holliday. The 60 point OPS+ boost out of the DH hole you get from a player of Holliday's calibre gives this offense a pulse and I don't feel as confident predicting the same level of production from Manny even, much less Thome or Giambi. And Holliday is cheaper, too, which leaves a bit of cash left over to splash out on a SS.

Also, we'd get a year of JaysTalk callers referring to Roy Holliday and Matt Halladay.

He who dares, wins, fellas.

-- Johnny Was

Not just yeah but Hell Yeah!

Not one of my tome's this time, just a heads up to notice this post at DJF.

This, my friends, is a capital concept and deserves all our full support. the single best thing the Jays can do to win a World Series in 2009 would be to have that man DHing for us next season. And the beauty of it is that he has already said in the past this is the place he most wants to play (if I am recalling it correctly) to say nothing of the motivation of sticking it to his former employer.

I am riding shotgun on this here bandwagon, pardners!

~WillRain

Saturday Morningness

Since the DJFs were couragous enough to reveal their faces, I thought I might as well follow suit and post a photo of myself to satisfy your curiosity. There you have it, the shocking truth. The years have not been kind; I'm only 29 years old.

What did last night's stinker do for AJ Burnett's trade value or, more importantly, his quest for type A free agent status? Not much good, sadly. Still, we owe Burnett some gratitude for at least providing one story line worth talking about around the water cooler. Bob Elliot says the prospect-poor Phillies, lacking the pieces to obtain a CC Sabbathia or Joe Blanton/Rich Harden, have been most active in scouting Burnett. They'd love him in Philly, so let's hope this works out.

More rumours? If you were keen on seeing Burnett and Eckstein go to the Dodgers for something juicy, cool your jets. It seems Nedco has more interest in CC Sabbathia (a Cali dude they have the money to re-sign) and Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson. Now, everything changes if the Brewers are ready to give up Matt LaPorta for Sabbathia... Ken Rosenthal says it's likely CC gets moved before his start on Tuesday, so the runner up may well turn its attention our way.

It's not like I'm totally disengaging from the Jays emotionally (as I have done with the Leafs pretty much every year at Christmas time since the lockout), but there really wasn't much to write about yesterday. Even Wilner is finding it hard to conceal his disappointment/boredom/contempt.

Blair truly nailed everything I've been trying to say about why JP must be strung up here and now in surveying the terrain to find that this is the year when a surprise team could sneak into the playoffs, so just read his piece, s'il vous plait.

Closer to a playoff spot than the Jays (10 back in the Wild Card)?

Baltimore Orioles: 6 back in the Wild Card. What?

Pittsburgh Pirates: 7.5 back in the Wild Card.

San Francisco Giants: 5 back in the NL West.

San Diego Padres: 9 back in the NL West with a .391 winning percentage. What in the fuck? (Anyone know when/whether the next season of Trailer Park Boys comes out?)

And the Kansas City Fucking Royals, 10.5 back in the AL Central, just miss the list.

There you have it.

The cavalacade of factoids continues...

Last night Sportsnet flashed a graphic between ads for autotrader.ca showing that the 2008 Jays are 41 homeruns behind their total at this point last year (101-60), and it got me to thinking. Matt Stairs and Vernon Wells currently share the team lead with 8 HR at 87 games into the season, making it entirely possible that no one on the team hits 20 this year.

When was the last time that happened? Ah, that would be strike-shortened 1981, when John Mayberry lead the team with 17. This indignity has only happened once in club history over a full season, that being the inaugural season of 1977, when aging DH Ron Fairly came up just short with 19. Long ball-digging chicks cannot be impressed.

All in all, this must be taking quite the toll on die hards like us and stoking disinterest amongst the ever important "casual fan." A cursory look at the numbers show that the Jays are still drawing in the middle of the pack (7th of 14 in the AL) just as they were last year, but the raw numbers are down. This does not bode well for payroll, or for JP's continued employment for that matter, when the Rogers suits do their post-mortem in October.

I caught snippets of a few games yesterday and got to thinking about a few overlooked bats worth considering for next year. What if the Yankees declined Jason Giambi's $22 million club option for next year? There's a $5 million buyout there and he has been very productive this year, but I think he might be a good fit in TO if he came available. Manny Ramirez? His behaviour is becoming increasingly erratic (the high five catch, shoving an aged travelling secretary to the ground) and it's no lock the Bosox exercise his $20 million club option for next year.

Now, I'm not saying that either are worth bringing on board at anything approaching their current salaries (or for more than 1 year if possible), but it's not like we've got the $200 million or so necessary to reel in Mark Teixeira. You gotta get your power somewhere, folks.

Enjoy this wonderous Saturday and know that I love you all very much.

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

I was going to choke out a "still in it to win it post", but I didn't really have the stomach for it after reading the latest Richard Griffin piece to lead off my morning. And I know what you're thinking, what did he write this time? He didn't do anything egregious, it's just the subject matter of his reportage.

If you've intimated that Will is the rational, level-headed one, I am the mystical, hysterical yin to his yang. Normally, I place great stock in stats and cold hard numbers, but I cannot escape the sinking feeling that the Jays 2008 season may well die somewhere on the road between Minnesota and Philladelphia regardless of what the standings say.

The Jays will have their work cut out for them this afternoon and evening at the Jake/Progressive Field, where they have been inexplicably incapable of winning, period. It's like the Bermuda Triangle of losses; the last graphic I saw showed them at 1-13 over their last 14. The Twins are like cockroaches, especially in their own building (where one of our outfielders always seems to lose a fly ball in the ceiling), and will be a test over three games. Philly is Philly, an offensive juggernaut without the benefit of a DH. And I note without irony that we're exactly one-year removed from the 9-game losing streak that killed the 2007 Jays five weeks into the season.

(Being mystically-inclined, I'm secretly hoping that my unbridled negativity will inspire the club to a nifty little winning streak, but would never admit to it for fear of jinxing my well-laid plans.)

On to the Griff piece that put me in such a foul mood.

Somebody is this close to talking his way out of town and that somebody is... Shannon Stewart? The Jays bullwhip approach, collective front office ADD, doublespeak and whathaveyou appear to be taking their toll on the veteran left fielder.

"This is like a bad dream," the 34-year-old veteran said before the Jays were rained out here (they're scheduled for a doubleheader today). "Things happen in life that are unexpected. I went through a lot in the off-season. It was kind of difficult just because of the situation. I knew I wasn't going to be the guy (here). The way I look at it, I was more like insurance. I've had the opportunity to play, but it's been weird... "I don't think people really understand how hard it's been on me," Stewart said with no hint of self-pity. "Not saying just the (lack of) playing, but a lot of stuff. It's been difficult. It's been more of an eye-opener because I didn't think it was going to be like this. What can you do? If you don't go out there, if I don't play well, then the other guy's got to play. I haven't lit it up. To be honest, I haven't felt comfortable since the spring.

"The reality of it is that this role that I'm in, I'm not doing anybody any good right now. I'm not doing the team any good. I'm not doing myself any good. It's like, what am I going to do next year? Hopefully, I'll keep working till I find it. They might want to do something else. It might get to the point where they might want to bring in other guys and see what they can do."

As a human being, Stew has always come across as one of the better sorts. Never crossed anyone, never spoke out of turn. His career was over for all intents and purposes despite a fairly decent 2007 until JP bailed him out with a low ball contract offer in February. He signed on as a bench player, Matt Stairs' platoon partner in left, and has probably been used more than most of us would've envisioned two months ago.

He has, however, been hitting all over the lineup, been proclaimed "the guy" in left and seen young kid Adam Lind deemed the starting left fielder all in about the span of a week. I really don't blame him for feeling a little bit confused and disappointed. By bringing in Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson, the bold, profane handwriting is clearly on the wall. Mench was the more rational of the two as a platoon DH to compliment Matt Stairs, but don't kid yourselves that Wilkerson and Stewart aren't auditioning for the same roster spot once V-Dub returns in about 2 months (+?) time.

Stew got his job when JP dumped Reed Johnson and may now it lose it with an equally unceremonious departure from the club to which he'd given his all. The hard part to swallow is that once again a very small amount of Benjamins will probably be the deciding factor on whether he or Wilkerson sticks. Stew was about a million bucks cheaper than Johnson and Wilkerson--paid the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum--would be a million cheaper still if JP drops the axe on Stew by the All Star Break.

I just want the club to win and, in the end, have no objections to any roster shuffling that makes the club better regardless of the players involved. I've even voiced more support for the amoral "Sign Barry Bonds" set. But it all just sits ill, the aforementioned bullwhip approach, collective front office ADD, doublespeak and whathaveyou. Shannon Stewart has made over $33 million from baseball, roughly half that paid by the Jays, so I can see why he might be thinking retirement or Japan would've suited him better than this soggy drama in Toronto.

ELSEWHERE:

* Like the Montreal Canadiens he adores so much, Eric Gagne has choked and stunk up the joint when it mattered most. That was an ill-spent $10 million. Nevertheless, I can't help but wonder if Gagne's struggles don't mean that Brewers GM Doug Melvin won't come calling for a reliever since he and JP have had fruitful trade relations in the past. After Billy Beane, there's noone JP likes doing business with more than the erstwhile Canucker in Cheeseheadland.

* This is one of the most remarkable pieces of sports journalism I've ever read. I was sort of surprised when TJ Simers of the LA Times wasn't laid out by Androo Jones during this "interview", but then again it's entirely possible that everything in this story is fictionalized. Bon Apetit!

* What is this, April Fool's? Manny Ramirez wants a Gold Glove? I actually don't think it's that bad an idea to give him, the whole process being the mockery that it is.

-- Johnny Was

Fun Facts of 2008

With no major Jays news to report, I thought it'd be fun to take a quick look at some of the projected leaders for the 2008 season:

Home run leaders: Jim Thome & Xavier Nady with 324. If my math is correct, that would set a new home run record. Xavier Nady is apparently the only reason to watch the Pirates, other than Nate McClouth. That's right folks, Jason Bay is dead to me. He knows what he did.

AL RBI leader: Manny Ramirez, 405. I understand now why the Red Sox are the favourites, as Manny Ramirez will singlehandedly drive in 405 runs this year.

NL RBI leader: Chipper Jones, 324. Excellent news, as I'm a huge Braves fan and I'd bet that they're going to win the NL East. They're off too a brutal start, losing both games in the later innings, although they had a pretty impressive comeback in the 9th and a decent rally in the 12th last night.

Major league wins leader: Livan Hernandez, 162. Several other SP are on pace to win 162 games, but odds are only Livan will live up to that pace because he's a renowned innings eater.

AL steals leader: Carlos Gomez, 324. Take that, pundits who said the Twins got the short end of the Santana trade!

NL steals leader: Michael "Jason" Bourn, 324.

AL/NL Saves leaders: Joe Borowski & David Riske. True, others will be tied for the saves lead, but nobody is poised to be as dominant as Joe, who's already allowed an ER (off a solo HR), and has an ERA of 9. Cleveland is just mocking Detroit who has a shitty bullpen, by using their worst pen arm as a closer. As for David Riske, he will obviously be taking over for Gagne, so as a self-proclaimed fantasy baseball expert I urge you all to drop Gagne and pick up David Riske (I'm looking at you, Mulliniks' Staches). No announcement has been made, but since Riske is projected to save 162 games, it should be obvious that Gagne will no longer be closing.

Twitchy.