Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Top Prospect Week begins!

As i mourn both the MVP vote and the signing of Joe Nathan in Texas (and cast a wistful glance at the stats for Houston Street) I lay aside the past and look again to the future

I'm totally changing up the way I list the prospects this year. I have, on my spread sheet, a "ranking" of no less than 150 players in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. A few of them I'll take out because they've lost their rookie eligibility even though in my mind they are still prospects because they haven't firmly established their grip on the major league roster, but there's still a ton of names. obviously the VAST majority are not likely to ever suit up in Toronto, but I don't like for a player to sneak up on my, so I pay attention to all of those who are interesting in any way.

In an effort to share my obsession with you, I intend to at least call the name of 100 players. to repeat, these are not "prospects" in the sense of having great promise to make an impact in Toronto. I think there are 30-40 guys you should be enthused about in the Jays system and, statistically, you'll be lucky if a third of those are real difference makers.

But it's also true that guys who were not in that top 30 last year are very important players this year, and guys who are not now, might very well be there a year from now. So I try to be exhaustive.

In years past I've avoided the more traditional "count-down" listing format preferring to just start with #1. But this year I will go with the reverse list simply by the nature of this week-long project. What I intend to do is write four columns, beginning with this one, with 25 players on each. I'll going to be very clear in saying that the lower on the list you are, the less the "rankings" actually mean. In this first installment (100-76) they are almost completely useless, in the next they reflect somewhat the concept of which players might be more prone to break out and jump into the top of the list (as Nestor Molina did this year). In the third installment, I begin to really sort of focus on "this guy is better than that guy" (and that defined as a balance of tools, the likelihood he can effectively use them, and accomplishment so far).

It's only the Top 25 where I consider the number beside the name to really mean something important in terms of reflecting my views. The higher we go on the list, the more likely I'll want to comment on the player. Which means, of course, that i won't say much about these guys.

100. Scott Campbell (2B) - injuries wiped out his career, a lot of sentiment in this ranking
99. Marcus Brisker(CF) - tools, hasn't panned out
98. Jon Jones (OF) - speedy guy but not blazing
97. John Anderson (LHP) - tons of injuries
96. Ryan Tepera (RHP) - classic Org Guy
95. Art Charles (1B) - a guy who could move up some
94. Adric Kelly (RHP) - some thought a sleeper in 2010 draft
93. Nico Taylor (OF) - very low pick, but nice start
92. Kevin Aherns (3B) - pretty much ready to give up on former 1st rounder
91. Justin Atkinson (SS) - versatile infielder from 2011 draft
90. Kevin Patterson (1B) - could move up next year
89. Devy Estrada (RHP) - loved his work pre-'11, scouts insist it won't play at higher levels.
88. Shane Opitz (SS) - some think he has promise
87. Ericdavis Marquez (LHP) - Awesome in DSL, 20 a touch old for that league
86. Ron Uvideo (RHP) - respectable stats, might be a fringe major leaguer for a bit
85. Zach Adams (LHP) - slow start, praised pick at #15 in 2010
84. John Tolisano (OF) - more disappointment from the '07 high schoolers
83. Dayton Martze (RHP) - mixed opinions from me here
82. Andrew Burns (SS) - 11th round pick in '11, same as Opitz in '10
81. Justin Jackson (IF/OF) - looked like possible break-out into June then fell completely apart
80. Kevin Pillar (RF) - good stats, but old for league
79. Brady Dragmire (RHP) - here a good thing or two about this pick
78. Ryan Goins (SS) - not bad, just not taking off either
77. Dustin Antolin (RHP) - comeback from TJ this year, could make big jump next year
76. Ryan Schimpf (2B) - just a guy

Up next - 75-51

3 comments:

Mylegacy said...

Tammy - I have been waiting for your list with baited breath (I swallowed a sardine).

I had a hard time trying to get my own list down to 50 - I seemed to never get much below the mid-70's - so I know where you're coming from.

My comments:

95) Art Charles: I figure he's gotta be about 20(ish) slots higher.

90) Kevin Patterson "could move up next year" I say "will move up next year"

88) Shane Opitz) Count me as one of the "some" who think he has promise.

87) Ericdavis Marquez. I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THIS GUYS NAME! The best baseball name EVER! Imagine the challenge his parents gave this 7 pound baby when they named him that! AND - (while I agree he's a tiny bit old for the DSL) his results were not exactly chopped liver.

Tammy - keep it goin' - this is gonna be a great ride!

gabriel said...

I have to agree with mylegacy about Art Charles - obviously too many K's, but much 2 years younger than Patterson and Pillar, so should be higher on the board. I'd have him around 60.

gabriel said...

Otherwise, I still have some hopes for Adaric Kelly and Zak Adams after lost seasons this year. John Anderson apparently has respectable stuff, it's conceivable he becomes an actual prospect. Justin Atkinson I like in that he's very young, and theoretically has more potential development in him than anyone else among these 25.