Showing posts with label Cathal Kelly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cathal Kelly. Show all posts

Friday, 11 April 2008

The Roundup

The other day I libelously fabricated a list of 19 players from the 1998 Blue Jays who I believed to have been fellow steroid users with testicularly-challenged slugger turned club house rat Jose Canseco. And ironically, Will brought this post from Baseball Digest Daily to people's attention yesterday:


Recordnet.com reports this morning that former Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ed Sprague has admitted to using many performance-enhancing drugs in his playing days, before all this was illegal:

Ed Sprague, now in his fifth season as baseball coach at University of the Pacific, said he used amphetamines and Androstenedione and once hit a home run with a corked bat. When asked directly about steroids, Sprague said he couldn't condemn all steroid users in baseball because he used Andro, which was banned under the Anabolic Steroid Control Act of 2004, and amphetamines, a form of speed known in baseball as "greenies."

"Well, amphetamines are illegal now, too, and I took those, so am I going to stand on one side and not the other side?" Sprague said. "I took Andro, and they banned that. So, am I the cleanest guy? No, but I tried to be as strong and as healthy as I could as long as I could for my career."

That's right, Sprague. I was on to you, you fuck. You sir, were not fit to hold Kelly Gruber's jock strap.

Zwolinski at the Star does some alternative history referring to Sprague as a "Glory Jay" and "hero", when in fact he was actually quite a shitty hitter (a career 90 OPS+ doesn't lie) until he started 'roiding it up and hit 36 home runs in 1996. Yes, fine, he did hit a timely home run in the 1992 World Series, but I think it's a stretch to consider him a popular player.

Bring up Sprague's name to any 30+ Canadian and the first thing you'll hear is "Hey, isn't he that guy who was married to that American synchronized swimmer who fradulently won a gold medal in the 1992 Olypmics when one of the judges accidentally entered the wrong score into his voting machine and couldn't fix it, robbing her Canadian rival of the gold medal she deserved? And didn't Cindy Sprague refuse to do the right thing and swap medals when she heard what had happened after the competition?" That's exactly what they'd say, word for word.

And watch for my next list, which will reveal every member on the 1984 Jays who had communist sympathies. Sneak peek: they all had brown skin and surnames that ended in "Z" or "O".

Since I'm throwing out wild accusations Jose Canseco-style, would you be interested in knowing how I know that Richard Griffin got really baked yesterday? Glad you asked. It's because he wrote this piece praising the Jays organization for turning its image around and making TO a desirable place to play. Or maybe he just had Cathal Kelly ghost write one for him, we shall never know.

I don't really want to say anything about last night's game (WTF? We don't pound lefties anymore? I'm so calling Wilner and demanding we get Reed Johnson back!). Actually, AM 980 cut away from JaysTalk before it got started to pick up a random west coast hockey playoff game, so I really have no idea what the toothless morons of Jays fandom had to complain about last night or how Wilner pilloried every one of their idiotic little statements. It's probably for the best, though, because there was little good beyond Shaun Marcum.

(Wilner blogs that the Jays have a bad case of badly-needing-Rolen-and-the-Beej-itis, and I concur with that diagnosis).

Jesse Carlson is pretty weird-looking, but I won't tease him about it. I'm kind of rooting for the little guy, who got his first call to the bigs at age 27 and cried when he heard the news. It's like how I cried when I got admitted into the Ph.D program at whatever university I go to and realized I'd have to spend the next 5-7 years of my life reading books about American views of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 and suchlike.

I do, however, need to address the fact that I prediced that we'd take 2 of 3 handily from the A's, who are doing a pretty damn fine imitation of a contender for a club that's supposed to be rebuilding. That sort of boastfullness can only bring bad mojo down on one's head, and I won't do it ever again. Promise!

Heading down to the "I tell you what" state, we've got these matchups over the next three days:

Litsch- Padilla
Halladay-Luis Mendoza (who?)
Burnett-Jennings

It should be interesting to see what Burnett looks like on Sunday, but when I say "interesting" I really mean "terrifying."

Also, there's a new issue of "Behind the Dish" out. Actually, I'm a couple of days late on this (check with them on Tuesdays), but I'd highly recommend you check it out if you're interested in the Jays system.

Re: drunken brawling in the 500s... James Christie at the Globe takes a look at the weird relationship between Toronto sports teams and their fans, who are chided for either being to quiet (most of the time) or too rowdy (new development). Jeez, guys, make up your mind.

ELSEWHERE:

* Stern-looking Bosox beard-wearer Mike Lowell is headed to the DL with a sprained thumb and will have his roster spot temporarily filled by Jed Lowrie of AAA Paw-tuck-it. You may recall Lowrie from the Johan Santana trade rumour derby of the past offseason. He's the guy who's going to make Julio Lugo Coco Crisp's $12 mil benchwarmer buddy sometime around the middle of next year. For all the scorn that's heaped on JP for the revolving door at shortstop during his tenure with the Jays, many forget that the Bosox haven't exactly had stability at the position, either. The difference between them and us is that they have the luxury of plopping down millions for a new one every year. I hate rich people...

* Is Jose Guillen still on the waiver wire of your fantasy pool because all of your fellow poolies expected him to be suspended for 15 games early in the season? Go on, grab him up. That suspension isn't coming and the stoner community can breathe a sigh of relief.

* Remember how alot of the witty fucks predicted that the Rays would finish third in the AL East? Many of those same people predicted the Mariners would do something silly like take the Wild Card. Guess what? The Mariners can't score. That will seriously impinge upon their plans to actually win games.

-- Johnny Was

Friday, 14 March 2008

The Cyberdyne Nine?

First off, I should give all of us at The Southpaw a big slap on the back for getting mentioned by Cathal Kelly in the Star's baseball blog. Now that I know he's actually reading our work, I'm glad that I haven't made any disparaging remarks toward him over the past six weeks we've been doing this thing.

(Note to self: expunge all disparaging remarks towards Cathal Kelly from the archives.)

For the record, Kelly's new to baseball and he's been doing a pretty good job with his features to date. I remember the first time I saw his work last off season; he did a nice piece on Frank Thomas where he extracted the "buckle your seat belts" quote that got everybody really pumped up about the Jays this time last year. Solid.

Ok, fine, I admit that part of me is trying to flatter the guy for dropping us a link in his higher traffic blog, and also, there's got to be some ethnic solidarity between fellow members of the Fenian Brotherhood. But still, if I were managing a team made of Blue Jays beat writers I'd have him batting no lower than fifth. Honest!

And now on to other business.

Supposing that the Cyberdyne Systems Corporation sent a bunch of baseball playing/John Connor hunting cyborgs back from the future to fill out the Jays 2008 roster, what sort of results could we expect?

I only mention this because I've recently stumbled across the most jaw-droppingly awesome stats site in the history of mankind, FanGraphs. Baseball-Reference.com is constantly getting better (though it too has always been awesome), but now there's some competition for my affections.

The range of Fangraph's stat categories is so vast that Richard Griffin's head would surely explode Scanners-style if he ever had the misfortunate of clicking on the above link. If you read the series previews over at Batter's Box last season you'll be familiar with most of them; these are the sorts of numbers the eggheads cite when they want to look wicked smart. BABiP, Runs Created/9 Innings, groundball/flyball/line drive percentages, and so on. With pretty, colourful graphs, too. Neat!

The other cool thing are the 2008 player projections from Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, MINER and ZiPS, which I'm finding quite handy as I plot my fantasy baseball strategy. (Will absolutely hates this shit! Sorry, pal!)

Since I was already pounding names in, I though it'd be interesting to see what the computers are projecting for our regulars this year. Take it for what it's worth. Some projections are conservative, some are more generous, and probably none will appeal to a Super Fan. Nevertheless...

There's no way I'm going to bang this stuff into a calculator and average out all five models, but a very rough composite of the computer generated estimates for your 2008 Cyberdyne Nine is as follows:

The Lineup

David Eckstein: .285/.345/.365 with 4 HR and 40 RBI

Matt Stairs: .260/.340/.440 with 13 HR and 45 RBI

Alex Rios:
.292/.350/.475 with 19 HR and 76 RBI.

Vernon Wells: .273/.330/.460 with 22 HR and 87 RBI.

Frank Thomas: .260/.360/.465 with 26 HR and 82 RBI.

Lyle Overbay: .275/.350/.440 with 15 HR and 60 RBI.

Scott Rolen:
.270/.345/.435 with 11 HR and 65 RBI.

Gregg Zaun:
.245/.340/.385 with 10 HR and 45 RBI.

Aaron Hill:
.287/.340/.425, 13 HR and 68 RBI.

The Rotation:

Roy Halladay: 15-8 with 3.55 ERA in 210 IP.

AJ Burnett: 11-9 with a 3.80 ERA in 173 IP.

Dustin McGowan: 10-9 with a 4.10 ERA in 165 IP.

Shaun Marcum: 9-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 155 IP

Jesse Litsch: 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA in 150 IP

The computers don't like relievers because they're tough to predict year to year. I won't go through those numbers individually because there's too much dispartity and some categories are left blank. The only guy all the models seem to crunch favourably is Jason Frasor. Go figure. Or send an email to John Gibbons.

Your first reaction to those numbers for our position players is either: a) hrm, all these guys are pretty much the same: decent, but not great, average and slugging %, ok OBPs, with nobody really excelling at anything; or b) the Overbay and Rolen lines are so totally fucked that I'm not reading any further. I really don't blame you for either response.

The pitching projections are, in my mind, less objectionable. Doc's numbers look Doc-like, AJ's AJ-like, with gentle regression from Marcum and Litsch. It's popular around here to think that McGowan is about to drop on the MLB like an atomic bomb this year and end up as a strong Cy Young contender. That's what the Twizzler-loving computer in my gut is telling me, too, so I don't really like the McG projections here.

As swell as it was looking at those numbers, it would be even better if young Cathal took FanGraphs to heart. It would be even cooler still if he mentioned to Uncle Griff the next they meet at the water cooler that a team of speedy 1980 Ron LeFlore clones would score 4.98 runs per game against 5.36 from a squadron of nine Jerry Whites, a less fleet of foot backup outfielder on the same Expos club...

-- Johnny Was