Playoff Predictions - Griffin style

So I was reading The Toronto Star when I came across another brilliant Griffin article, in which he eventually makes some position by position comparison of the Rays & Red Sox. I didn't have a problem with some of his results - Navarro beating out Varitek, Rays winning out in the corners infield, but after that it started to take a turn for the worse. I'll let him explain.

Middle infield: The Sox have Jed Lowrie and MVP candidate Dustin Pedroia, while the Rays duo is the reliable Jason Bartlett and Akinori Iwamura. Advantage Rays.

Say what? You just said that Pedroia's an MVP candidate, and Lowrie was solid - and they get beaten out by Bartlett and Iwamura? Bartlett had an 85 OPS+, and Iwamura had a 96 OPS+, while playing solid defense. The Sox duo had a 123 OPS+ (Pedroia) and 91 OPS+ (Lowrie), while also playing very good defense. So how exactly did Griffin's own suggestion for MVP of the league get beaten out by John McDonald Jr. and a solid but unspectacular 2B?

Outfield: The Sox have Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew vs. the Rays trio of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Gabe Gross or Rocco Baldelli. Advantage Sox.

I'll give them Jason Bay, but Ellsbury isn't that impressive and it's unknown if Drew is going to play because of back injuries which means more time for Crisp. Meanwhile, CC is healthy, Upton's finally showing some power because his shoulder isn't hurt, and Gross/Baldelli make a solid tandem in RF. Normally a Bay/Ellsbury/Drew outfield would win here, but Drew is injured and I think the edge has to go to the Rays here.

Starters: The Sox trio – Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Dice-K Matsuzaka – has been there before. The Rays trio of James Shields, Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir is very talented but inexperienced in October. Advantage Sox.

Normally I'd agree, but Lester is pitching in game 3, so he's going to make at best 2 starts in the playoffs. Beckett is coming off a rough start, and hasn't shown he's the dominating force from last year. And Dice-K just isn't very good. And with this being a 7 game series, I think you have to include Wakefield & Sonnanstine. Once again, depth and health for the Rays gives them a bit of an advantage in the rotation. If Beckett was healthy and productive it's a different story, but he's an unknown at this point.

Bullpen: The back end of the Sox pen is rock solid with Jonathan Papelbon, set up by Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterton. Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and Chad Bradford must steel their nerves to succeed, although Wheeler did set up for the Astros in October a couple of years back. Advantage Sox.

First off, one of the key relievers for the Rays is JP Howell, and not Chad Bradford. Howell and Balfour pitched the Rays out of some huge jams against the White Sox (especially that bases loaded escape job by Balfour), and outside of the Jays I think the Rays have one of the best bullpens in the majors. Hell, during the regular season the Rays bullpen ERA (3.55), WHIP (1.26) and opponents OPS (669) was much better than the Sox were at 4.00, 1.35 and 707 respectively.

Based on these stats, I think it's really hard to argue the Sox have a better bullpen here. Masterson was a nice addition, but I don't think he's a shutdown set up man, and he wasn't very strong during the series against the Angels. So if anything, the Red Sox bullpen will be a liability, and not the Rays.

The Sox had a better run differential this season, but I think the Rays have a big advantage now thanks to their health. If Beckett, Lowell, Drew and even Ortiz are all healthy I think the Sox win. But with so many injured guys, the Rays have a real shot of making the World Series.

Damn, I never thought I'd say that....

Twitchy.

The Other Deuce Drops

With all the pointless fury of an incensed drunken hobo screaming at the bus shelter at the corner of Richmond and Dundas, Bob Elliot let'er fly today with what I hope is the final salvo of the JP-Scott Richmond-Team Canada affair. I expected this diatribe immediately after the loss to Japan that ended Canada's medal hopes, but I suppose that hacks work on their own timelines.

Now, I do appreciate Elliot's attempt at a Trailer Park Boys reference:

Only arrogance or a failure to understand this country, or both, would allow management to not know they were walking into a sandstorm, or whatever it is Mr. Lahey and Randy say every 10 minutes on the Trailer Park Boys.

but it's the "winds of shit" that he meant to write. I'd expect better from the second drunkest denizen of Sunnyvale Trailor Park. Elliot later overestimated the population of Canada by 3 million, though in his defense I haven't read the paper today and it is entirely possible that we annexed Lithuania in the middle of the night.

As expected, the second Moron Brother who marches lockstep with Elliot ripped into JP again over Richmond in his mailbag today:

As for Richmond and his hosing by Ricciardi, it’s a disgrace. He was called up on the eve of the Canadian team’s trip to Asia. He was promised this wasn’t just for one start – and they were right, it was for three. For those that said Richmond’s major-league experience would be far preferable to going to Beijing and pitching against amateurs, that’s total crap. Richmond watching his Canadian teammates flame out from a motel room in Syracuse rather than the Olympic Village surely ruined his major-league experience. Richmond’s presence with the Jays instead of at the front end of Canada’s Olympic rotation meant that not only was the starting pitching weaker, but the trickle-up effect made the bullpen weaker as well. Anyway, it helped the U.S. gain a spot in the medal round. “O Canada. Our home and naïve land.”

As someone who did watch all of Canada's Olympic baseball games I conceed that they would've been a better team with Richmond and might have actually beat Cuba or the United States with him on the hill in place of the roster filler they threw out there. Yet they still would've been a long shot hopeful for a bronze at best and really, does that matter? Does, say, finishing ahead of Spain but behind Britain in the final medal tally really mean one flying fuck to anyone in this country?

So far as baseball is concerned, the Olympics are not a best on best showcase and never have been. The real prize--for those who care about international baseball, and not everyone does--is winning the mlb-sanctioned World Baseball Classic that actually does showcase the best players in the sport. The most talented young members of Team Canada (Nick Weglarz and Mike Saunders) will get another kick at the can in more stylish uniforms. Rest assured that JP will not hold Richmond back then for the sake of a few spring training innings, but by that point the talent level on Team Canada might be such that he's not needed. Wrap your heads around that, fellas.

Elliot and Griffin have got their knickers in a twist over a second-rate international tournament that wasn't even televised in Canada. We get it, the game has changed much since the wonder years of the 1980s and early '90s and you don't like it, so you shit all over someone who you've chosen to associate with Change . JP is, in my opinion, a relatively easy mark for someone who wants to make a coherent, rational critique of his GM-ing, but taking major offense to the Richmond affair just reflects the bitterness of two old men whose tenures as "local baseball experts" are drawing to a close.

Elliot and Griffin need to get over it and get over themselves. They're supposed to be elder statesmen in the Jays media, but they sure don't carry themselves as such.

Dismissed.

***

Of note, sort of:

The Oracle has noted that JP will make a hard push for Brewers ace Ben Sheets in the offseason numerous times on JaysTalk and on the blerg, but Jordan Bastian at mlb.com counters that "If Burnett does opt out, Ricciardi said that Toronto doesn't intend on replacing the pitcher through free agency."

Which is it?

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup JR

Alright, so it's a little late but it can't hurt to do it now...

As I'm sure you've heard by now, Shaun Marcum is going to be ok. Well, according to Doc Andrews, the report says that he "confirmed the Blue Jays’ diagnosis that the pitcher has strained ligaments around the elbow and forearm but nothing more worrisome. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday."

So he doesn't need TJ surgery or anything crazy, and he should be back to help anchor the rotation while only missing a couple of starts. The most popular names to get spot-start opportunities include John Parrish & David Purcey. There are some open spots on the 40 man roster, which means that Parrish could be added and brought up. I'm hoping it's Purcey, who hopefully does so well that it encourages the Jays to trade AJ ASAP. I have my doubts that AJ will be a type A free agent, and I'm not alone in this belief.

If AJ isn't a type A free agent, the Jays absolutely need to grab at least two prospects in a trade. Otherwise I believe the only compensation they'll get from him is a supplemental round pick.

Speaking of the devil, AJ faces off against Bronson Arroyo. An interesting matchup against the Jays - Bronson is worse away from his home park, which is surprising considering that a routine fly ball anywhere else is a HR there. Arroyo has had a ton of HR problems this season - luckily for him the Jays refuse to hit any. Expect another 0-0 game, unless....Adam Dunn decides to pretend JP's face is on every baseball thrown to him. Despite a 219 BA, Dunn has still managed a ridiculous 384 OBP, and an even more impressive 491 slugging. If his BA is 250, we're talking about a 530-540 slugging!

I have nothing against Gary Denbo, but his philosophy didn't seem well suited to the Jays. I love having patient hitters, but the collection of hitters JP assembled are built to hit the first good pitch they see and, in most cases, pull it as hard as they could. Denbo essentially wanted them to draw out an at bat and use the whole field, which I believe may have played a part in the offensive struggles so far. Which is why at some level, it's very refreshing to hear this:

"We have to get back to the basics," Tenace said. "We've got to get more aggressive in the strike zone. The on-base percentage will take care of itself. I think they're a little tentative at the plate. They're feeling for the ball.

"We've got to get more aggressive and let it go. Then, let's see how we do with that. Once we get a couple of these guys going, it's kind of contagious."

I think I mentioned something to this effect in one of my earlier posts. Once they stop taking pitches and hit the first good pitch that they like, they should start getting back to hitting to their career #'s. And like Tenace says, one these guys start feeling comfortable, the walks will start coming naturally. I didn't have a lot of faith in the bats returning to their previous levels of established production, but maybe there's a chance that things can turn around. I'm not talking about reaching the playoffs - just hitting the damn ball. I'm tired of 1-0 games.

Look, I think bringing back Gaston isn't a horrible move. I mean, he seems to be making the decisions here. All indications are that he wanted Lind in LF, which makes Gaston a hero in my books. He brought up League too, and again, these were moves that should have been made sooner rather than later. So I'd definetly like him to have some input on the 25 man roster. But this article by Griffin about how Gaston should be GM is downright retarded.

There's a big difference between being a GM & being a manager. Gaston is clearly a smart baseball man, and can make a difference as a manager. He's obviously good at getting players to be calm, relaxed, and produce well. Look at the difference between Lind now and earlier in the season - one Lind looked like he knew he'd be sent down if he didn't hit like Lance Berkman, and the other looked like he knew that he'd get a shot at playing whether or not he hit like Neifi Perez. So from an outside point of view, Gaston seems to be extremely good at communicating, and I'll buy into the fact that maybe, he can get underpeforming players to perform better.

But being a GM is more complicated than that. He's got to focus on every single player in the organization - he needs to know when to promote who, who to demote, who to release, and most importantly, what to trade for. Knowing who to acquire is one thing, knowing what to give up to acquire who you need. And I don't know if Gaston is the best candidate for the job. Everytime a GM spot opens up La Cava's name pops up, so when JP is kicked to the curb, I'd love to see La Cava get a shot.

Another thing is that it's very rare to have a manager be a GM. It's just too much work, and I'd rather have Gaston focused on getting the most out of the 25 men playing for the Jays, than worrying about balancing the present & future of the organization.

Shame on Griffin for even suggesting it. I'll throw out one thing he said that really bothered me (and only one, because otherwise i'd be quoting the entire damn thing):
That leaves the GM's role. Baseball's best GMs are not necessarily the smartest. They are the best because they surround themselves with complementary talents. If Gaston became GM (and he likes living in Toronto, as opposed to some) he already has a talented young assistant in Canadian Alex Anthopoulos to handle the minutiae and contracts. As for the senior guys on the baseball side, Gaston has a lot of friends from his many years in baseball to tap into.

Really? Baseball's best Gm's aren't the smartest? You're gonna tell me Beane & John Schuerholz aren't (or weren't in Schuerholz case) the smartest in the game, or even the most successful GM's considering their respective situations? Are you fucking kidding me? What the fuck is this bullshit? The GM better be the fucking smartest person on the team. He's gotta make the most important decisions on the team. And if Gaston has this talented assistant (who hypothetically stays assistant GM despite being brushed aside for a guy who's essentially never worked in a front office position like a GM), why wouldn't the fucking talented assistant be GM over Gaston?

So yeah. Gaston is a big help as a manager, but this is just ridiculous. La Cava for GM, starting 09! Git'er'done!

Elsewhere:

Barry Zito is apparently "making mechanical adjustments" which would help him increase his velocity and give him more movement. My inside sources tell me that his increased velocity was due to a light breeze that carried the ball almost all the way to home plate before bouncing in the dirt. Brian Sabean continues to compete with Richard Griffin for "The how the fuck does this guy still have a job?" award.

Once again, I'm sorry this was done so late. I'll do my best to do it in the morning tomorrow...

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Cue up the Dawson's Creek theme song (I don't wanna wait, for my liiiiife to be over....) because there's a slate of "how sad to say goodbye" stories about Reed Johnson this morning.

Mr. Cathal Kelly has V-Dub near tears (again), Stewart kind of expressing remorse at taking Sparky's job (buy American!), and JP professing to have a heart (? you've got me).

This is how Blair reports JP's justification for his decision to dump a former favourite "who played like his hair was on fire":

"We're going to miss Reed's defence and grittiness, but at this point, we decided to go with offence over anything else," Ricciardi said.

"The best way to describe it and from our end is that every time we play the [New York] Yankees and [Boston] Red Sox, you see those lineups and they're just prolific. And if something happens and we're not in a platoon, Shannon's a guy who can run out and hit right-handers."

Ok, fair enough. I'm getting weary of this whole thing already so I'll let that slide. To his credit Sparky took the whole thing maturely and was actually the one who informed Stewart that he'd won his job. Buck up, son. You'll land on your feet.

Not only does Scott Rolen's tragic finger injury leave the Jays with a potentially gaping hole at third, but it also grossified the club's spring training facility. Blair(sy) notes:

There were droplets of dried blood on the sidewalk leading to the Toronto Blue Jays' clubhouse at Knology Park, the route taken by Rolen after he suffered a non-displaced fracture of his finger (he broke the bone above the top knuckle) — ripping the nail off in the process — during a fielding drill on one of the back fields.

Hrm, that's kind of gross. Oh yes: when will he be back playing again? Rolen was dispatched to Baltimore yesterday to see the same hand specialist who dealt with Gregg Zaun last year; JP says he doesn't want to speculate on an injury timetable, but it's not going to be six weeks. A bit of a contradiction, no? It's going to take a few weeks.

Frankly, things could be worse. I googled the injury yesterday and discovered at the Fox fantasy site that Alfonso Soriano suffered a similar problem this spring (though he didn't lose a nail), missing only a week's worth of fake games. The fracture didn't have any effect on swinging the bat, though throwing was more difficult as is to be expected. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Rolen will indeed be in playing shape by the home opener, perhaps only in a pinch hitting capacity, but nevertheless. Think optimistically here, people.

John Lott at the National Post notes that it would appear as though Randy David "R-Dub" Wells has played his way onto the 25-man roster. Well finagalled (sp?) his way on at least. Is that even a real word? As a Rule 5-er R-Dub would surely be lost to back to the Cubs if he didn't go north and JP would be out a cool $50 grand. And, yes, more importantly, it's starting to click for R-Dub after working with Brad "Arnie" Arnsberg this spring:

“The ball’s been sinking for me, and that’s been a big part of the puzzle for me to be successful,” said Wells, who started pitching near the end of 2003, his first pro season. “I’ve always been a four-seam, straight fastball kind of guy, and when I’m not throwing strikes, I’ve [had to] come in with that and I gave up a lot of hits. Now that I’ve got that sinker going, it gives me added confidence. When I fall behind in the count, I throw that sinker in there and hope for a ground ball.”

It also doesn't hurt that the boss likes his moxie, too. Note to JP: "Wellsie" is a lame nickname.

Richard Griffin's latest mailbag was posted online almost a week late. It's like someone stole the funny pages out of my morning paper (the Globe and Mail, by the way).

ELSEWHERE:

* Matt(y) Stairs(y) will be suiting up for Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic next year when he's a ripe old 41. “Whenever you get 25 Canadians in one locker room, it tends to be quite fun,” Stairs said. Presumably this is a reference to getting drunk and eating chicken fingers? If the WBC is your bag, here's Blair's piece on the political machinations with the Olympics, bringing games to Canada, and so on.

* The Yankees are still pretending that they're not concerned about Andy Pettitte's wonky back, which may force him to miss his first real real game of the season. Ok, whatever... Yesterday I implied that time lost to injury for Pettitte is key for the Jays leapfrogging the hated Gothamites in the standings this year.

* You can probably take Brewers lefty Chris Capuano out of the rumour mill. It looks like he's headed for a second Tommy John, which would probably be a career killer. But you're saying, "hey wait, didn't Victor Zambrano successfully come back from two TJs?" No, you're not saying that, are you? And John Patterson signs with the Rangers.

-- Johnny Was

The Cyberdyne Nine?

First off, I should give all of us at The Southpaw a big slap on the back for getting mentioned by Cathal Kelly in the Star's baseball blog. Now that I know he's actually reading our work, I'm glad that I haven't made any disparaging remarks toward him over the past six weeks we've been doing this thing.

(Note to self: expunge all disparaging remarks towards Cathal Kelly from the archives.)

For the record, Kelly's new to baseball and he's been doing a pretty good job with his features to date. I remember the first time I saw his work last off season; he did a nice piece on Frank Thomas where he extracted the "buckle your seat belts" quote that got everybody really pumped up about the Jays this time last year. Solid.

Ok, fine, I admit that part of me is trying to flatter the guy for dropping us a link in his higher traffic blog, and also, there's got to be some ethnic solidarity between fellow members of the Fenian Brotherhood. But still, if I were managing a team made of Blue Jays beat writers I'd have him batting no lower than fifth. Honest!

And now on to other business.

Supposing that the Cyberdyne Systems Corporation sent a bunch of baseball playing/John Connor hunting cyborgs back from the future to fill out the Jays 2008 roster, what sort of results could we expect?

I only mention this because I've recently stumbled across the most jaw-droppingly awesome stats site in the history of mankind, FanGraphs. Baseball-Reference.com is constantly getting better (though it too has always been awesome), but now there's some competition for my affections.

The range of Fangraph's stat categories is so vast that Richard Griffin's head would surely explode Scanners-style if he ever had the misfortunate of clicking on the above link. If you read the series previews over at Batter's Box last season you'll be familiar with most of them; these are the sorts of numbers the eggheads cite when they want to look wicked smart. BABiP, Runs Created/9 Innings, groundball/flyball/line drive percentages, and so on. With pretty, colourful graphs, too. Neat!

The other cool thing are the 2008 player projections from Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, MINER and ZiPS, which I'm finding quite handy as I plot my fantasy baseball strategy. (Will absolutely hates this shit! Sorry, pal!)

Since I was already pounding names in, I though it'd be interesting to see what the computers are projecting for our regulars this year. Take it for what it's worth. Some projections are conservative, some are more generous, and probably none will appeal to a Super Fan. Nevertheless...

There's no way I'm going to bang this stuff into a calculator and average out all five models, but a very rough composite of the computer generated estimates for your 2008 Cyberdyne Nine is as follows:

The Lineup

David Eckstein: .285/.345/.365 with 4 HR and 40 RBI

Matt Stairs: .260/.340/.440 with 13 HR and 45 RBI

Alex Rios: .292/.350/.475 with 19 HR and 76 RBI.

Vernon Wells: .273/.330/.460 with 22 HR and 87 RBI.

Frank Thomas: .260/.360/.465 with 26 HR and 82 RBI.

Lyle Overbay: .275/.350/.440 with 15 HR and 60 RBI.

Scott Rolen: .270/.345/.435 with 11 HR and 65 RBI.

Gregg Zaun: .245/.340/.385 with 10 HR and 45 RBI.

Aaron Hill: .287/.340/.425, 13 HR and 68 RBI.

The Rotation:

Roy Halladay: 15-8 with 3.55 ERA in 210 IP.

AJ Burnett: 11-9 with a 3.80 ERA in 173 IP.

Dustin McGowan: 10-9 with a 4.10 ERA in 165 IP.

Shaun Marcum: 9-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 155 IP

Jesse Litsch: 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA in 150 IP

The computers don't like relievers because they're tough to predict year to year. I won't go through those numbers individually because there's too much dispartity and some categories are left blank. The only guy all the models seem to crunch favourably is Jason Frasor. Go figure. Or send an email to John Gibbons.

Your first reaction to those numbers for our position players is either: a) hrm, all these guys are pretty much the same: decent, but not great, average and slugging %, ok OBPs, with nobody really excelling at anything; or b) the Overbay and Rolen lines are so totally fucked that I'm not reading any further. I really don't blame you for either response.

The pitching projections are, in my mind, less objectionable. Doc's numbers look Doc-like, AJ's AJ-like, with gentle regression from Marcum and Litsch. It's popular around here to think that McGowan is about to drop on the MLB like an atomic bomb this year and end up as a strong Cy Young contender. That's what the Twizzler-loving computer in my gut is telling me, too, so I don't really like the McG projections here.

As swell as it was looking at those numbers, it would be even better if young Cathal took FanGraphs to heart. It would be even cooler still if he mentioned to Uncle Griff the next they meet at the water cooler that a team of speedy 1980 Ron LeFlore clones would score 4.98 runs per game against 5.36 from a squadron of nine Jerry Whites, a less fleet of foot backup outfielder on the same Expos club...

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Richard Griffin slaps a bunch of random factoids together and comes to the unlamentable conclusion that John Gibbons is on his way out this year if he doesn't somehow pull a 90-win season out of his ass. We know that Griffin has been grinding his JP axe for so long that it's now no bigger than a toothpick, so much of what's to come shouldn't be a surprise.

Gibby is not perfect. In three plus years on the job he's been learning as he goes and most would probably agree that he squeezed about as much as one would've expected from the talent at his disposal. He usually plays it safe by going with the matchup the numbers dictate, but he rides his starters--even TJ survivors--too deep into games. He has a reputation for being a players' manager, scraps with Lilly and Hillenbrand notwithstanding. He showed creativity in 2006 by moving Troy Glaus over to shortstop, keeping Hillenbrand's bat in the lineup at third, behind fly ball pitchers and in interleague games. And on the other hand he showed what might be a head-scratchingly vindictive side by using J-Mac as a pinch hitter last year with a healthy Alex Rios sitting on the bench. "I had my reasons," he said when questioned.

Just what his ceiling is as a manger I don't venture to say. He might get a little better than he is now, or he might not. He didn't do anything egregious enough last year to warrant a firing, but he didn't exactly cement his status here for the long term either.

Uncle Griff usually tests our credulity and doesn't disappoint this time around. Problem: how to compare Gibbons with the nine other managers who have longer tenure with their respective ball clubs? Solution: in a manner that's least flattering to JP's friend and personal hire.

Here's how Griffin proceeds:

The 45-year-old Texan has been at his job longer than 20 other managers and his total of 536 games managed in a Jays uniform trails only Cito Gaston and Bobby Cox, while his 270 victories are 11 behind Jimy Williams for third in franchise history.

As for the nine other managers currently with more service time in the same place, they are Cox (Braves), Tony La Russa (Cards), Mike Scioscia (Angels), Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Eric Wedge (Indians), Ned Yost (Brewers), Clint Hurdle (Rockies), Terry Francona (Red Sox) and Ozzie Guillen (White Sox)...

In comparing the accomplishments of the top 10 in terms of longevity, from No.1 Cox to No.10 Gibbons, five of them have won a World Series. Hurdle's Rockies went to the Classic and lost to Francona's Bosox in '07. Wedge last year made it to the ALCS with the Tribe, falling to Francona's Sox in seven games. Only Gibbons and Yost have prevailed this long without at least one post-season appearance.

Ok, so taking your club to the playoffs is the sole measuring stick for success when it comes to managers, which means Gibby (and Yost) are the worst of the bunch. Maybe they are.

But if you compared Gibbons' W-L record from his first three full seasons to those of everyone else on the list, you might come to a different conclusion. Gibby had two .500-ish clubs that couldn't hit (2005 and 2007) and one that flirted with 90 wins despite the best efforts of Josh Towers (2006). Two of those clubs had no shot of going to the playoffs, and the middle one did a fairly good imitation of a contender into August.

Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa both had losing composite records in their first three years and they get kudos around the league for being great managers, deserved (Cox) or not (LaRussa). Scioscia got a ring in year three, but his first two clubs were uncompetitive. Gardenhire is a fantastic manager whose teams regularly outperform their pythag; he rang off 90 win seasons and AL Central titles in each of his first three seasons. Wedge took over as the Indians were rebuilding, but his clubs are usually bad on the pythag, the 2006 edition drastically so (11 games under). Yost had two crappy clubs and one .500 one, then regressed, then got back up around .500; he's playing with some phenomenal young talent (Fielder/Braun) in a weak division and has little to show for it--so far. Hurdle had five straight losing seasons and probably would've lost his job last year if not for the Rox improbable late season playoff run. Francona is probably--no, scratch that, he is--the best manager in baseball, but it didn't start out so beautifully in Philly. Guillen rode the Chisox to a WS victory in 2005 when the pitching clicked, but he's constantly running his mouth and making headaches for the club.

You can basically spin this however you like because there's good, bad and in between on this list. But Griffin likes to simplify things in a manner that fits his own worldview (must clone 1980 version of Ron LeFlore...), and he choses to tell a story that vindicates his own dislike of JP Ricciardi.

Forgive me for saying that line of reasoning is just dickish.

In other news, Stairsy has recovered from a minor ankle sprain and got into yesterday's game, going 0 for 3. The Beej is to throw simulated games today and Tuesday, with his first real fake game action slated for March 15.

AJ Burnett pitched well yesterday and Gibby is confident that he'll have his curve working by the start of the season. It might take a prosthetic nail, but he'll git'er done.

The Mockingbird really knocks one out of the park on the LF competition between Shannon Stewart and Reed Johnson. Blair's argument that that SS is the better player "Period", is faulty. Go have a look if you want to know why.

Wilner is getting a bit testy with the mental midgets who think the ship is on fire because the Jays aren't winning spring training games. He makes a good point here:

Will Machi giving up three in the ninth affect the Jays this season? Will Inglett and Ryan Patterson not being able to drive in a run with the bases loaded and one out in a two-run game? How about Ryan Ketchner giving up a four-spot in a game the Jays lost by three? Maybe it’s that the Jays had a perfect game thrown at them by the Yankees in a game in which 80% of the plate appearances were by Inglett, Lind, Coats, Snider, Pedro Lopez, Curtis Thigpen, Russ Adams, Matt Watson and Chip Cannon.

I’m hoping these examples are enough, but I feel like I’m beating my head against a brick wall when I read some of these comments.

I’ll close with this: The 1984 Detroit Tigers got off to the best start in baseball history at 35-5, barely breaking a sweat on their way to a World Series title. In the pre-season that year, they had the second-worst record in the American League at 11-17. In 1992, the Blue Jays won the World Series, an especially amazing feat because they had to overcome a 13-18 pre-season, the second-worst in the league. In 1993, they went 11-19 in games that didn’t count, and ridiculously, still managed to win the World Series again.

Seriously, the guy usually has more patience than a kindergarden teacher. Don't jump, Wilner!

ELSEWHERE:

* The Rays have pretty much made their peace with the fact that Rocco Baldelli, pencilled in as their right fielder, is going stay/get hurt and cause them massive headaches. External options would include Kenny Lofton, or there the possibility that Eric "Doug Heffernan" Hinske could do his awkward, rambling and always exciting impression of an outfielder. I'm pulling for Dougie. Same reasoning as the people who voted for William Hung on American Idol.

* Coco Crisp is cross at losing his job to wunderkind Jacoby Ellsbury, but of greater interest is the Boston Herald's use of OPS when listing a players stats. Just wishing the local papers would similarly provide the JaysTalk set with a little bit more context... Crisp suffered through various ailments last year and is probably the best 4th OF in the AL. He will get his ABs when Manny goes on his annual summer vacation. I've been awfully kind to the Beantowners in this paragraph, no?

* The Yankees are apparently worried that Joba Chamberlain is letting his new-found celebrity status go to his head. Where is my eye-rolling emoticon? He threw 24 major league IP last year. Rival clubs just might have looked at his game tape this offseason. But I'm sure a 0.38 ERA is something he can easily maintain over a 15-year career, because Joba Rulez!

* Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not be able to accompany the Bosox to Japan for their regular season-opening March 25-26 set with the A's in Toyko because his wife has a little chavy to fire out later this month. Millions of Japanese fans will be gutted if he can't make it.

* A-Rod's got a sore shoulder that is temporarily limiting him to DH duties. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound serious.

Apologies to anyone who usually reads this in the morning. Blogger server errors prevented me from getting this up earlier

--Johnny Was

You Don't Know Dick

It's been a while, but I thought it was time to return my roots. That's right everybody, it's time for You Don't Know Dick.

What has he done this time? Well, Griffin starts off by saying the Sox are better because they didn't do anything. Alright, I'll buy that....full seasons from Lester & Buchholz...well not technically full seasons more like 150 or so innings by them and another 50-70 by some scrub cause you don't wanna overwork them too much. And I mean Lowell won't have as good a year as 06, but they're not that much worse off - and hey, they got rid of Gagne & Hinske. Addition by subtraction.

So what does Griffin think makes this team even better?

It may, in fact, be a blessing in disguise for the Sox that the rapidly declining skills of right-hander Curt Schilling have been sidelined for an indefinite period. It allows youngsters like Buchholz and cancer survivor Lester to step into the mix and evolve into big-time contributors by October.

Hold the phones there bud. Schilling had a 122 ERA+ last year. I realize he's old and all, but Buchholz & Lester aren't going to be able to pitch a full season cause of their innings restrictions. So now on top of the fact that they've got 2 inexperienced kids with no guarantee they'll do a good job, it's a blessing in disguise that Schilling is injured? A guy who can eat 100-200 innings while pitching above league average, who's capable of mentoring these kids through examples - and it's a "blessing in disguise" that he's injured? The Sox need a guy like Schilling who can pitch as often as possible to reduce the workload on Buchholz & Lester...

Well, maybe he's right. It's possible that Curt Schilling could be replaced by Bartolo Colon. And what an upgrade that'd be...

Now, I got nothing against Francona, but I thought this was mildly amusing:

As for the seemingly winter-long tussle over the services of the Twins' Cy Young Award winner, Johan Santana, won by the Mets, Francona looked at the negotiating battle as being part of the process.

"Because we're the Red Sox, we get involved in these things, which is pretty cool," Francona explained. "We're a player. At the same time, we love our young guys. I'm happy (not getting Santana). I think we were in a pretty good position."

You're happy not getting Johan Santana? I mean, don't get me wrong, I know he's defending his players and all. But he's happy he didn't get one of the top pitchers in the game? Yeah, I'm sure Francona would have rather trotted out Tim Wakefield instead of Johan Santana. I mean both of them have these weird pitches that go really slow and mess with the batter. Except for the fact that Santana isn't 100 years old and is one of the best pitchers in the game. But those are just minor details. Obviously, if you were managing the Red Sox you would be quite happy not being able to trot out Santana every 5th day.

Now, I noticed it's in (), so it's possible that Griffin substituted the fact that Francona is happy about not getting Santana. In which case, he, and not Francona, has lost his mind...

And then I saw this optimistic gem:

A 13-win deficit is a lot for the Jays to catch up against a Boston team that blends veterans and youngsters so effectively. Perhaps it's better the Jays set their sights on the Yankees and the wild card. That should be their target. It comes down to health.

Alright guys. We can't make first place. Boston is just too awesome (which is exactly why they're happy not to have Santana) to beat. Let's just give up any hope now, before we know if BJ is healthy, if Rolen can hit like it's 2004, or if Wells is remotely healthy. Griffin said Boston's too good, so let's just cut our losses and pray to the baseball God's that we come in second, and that when we make the wild card that the Angels or whoever wins the Central beats Boston for us. Cause if we can't beat them in the hypothetical season, we've damn well lost the hypothetical ALCS.

And just so you know, we lost it in 4. Highlights of the series will include a perfect game by Buchholz, a series ending pop up to 2B by Vernon, Lester dominating Overbay with 2 on to end game 3 (we only got on cause "scrappy" Eckstein & Johnson got hit by pitches), and Josh Beckett outdueling Roy Halladay in 10 innings.

Since I now know that we can't make first place, I'm going to curl into the fetal position wondering why I've wasted my life on a second place team....

Twitchy.

You Don't Know Dick, 2nd ed.

Since Johnny was so kind to point out that Griffin had posted something, I think it's time for the second installment of our recurring series, You Don't Know Dick.

In today's installment, we'll focus on "Why clogging the bases is better than not clogging the bases".

For a Griffin blog, I'd have to say it wasn't half bad. I'm not going to bother going into the anti-JP stuff Johnny referred to, but I think it's important to address several problems with this statement...

Q: Hi Richard.

I have been anxiously awaiting the new baseball season and I am glad to see Spring Training has arrived. I will be taking in some games in Dunedin for the first time ever and I am very excited to see how this year’s edition of the club pans out this spring. Many Jays fans, myself included, were frustrated last year with the inability of the offence to manufacture runs. It often appeared that John Gibbons and his team were banking on a big hit to cash in some runs instead of playing small ball - hit and run, bunting and sacrificing outs to advance runners. My question is this: Do you see a change in style emerging this year with the acquisition of Eckstein as our leadoff guy? Where do Vernon and Rios fit into the batting order? I believe that we need to take better advantage of their speed. Should the Big Hurt be dropped in the order to fifth or sixth as to avoid him clogging up the bases in the early innings? Thanks for your time. I hope to spark up some Blue Jays chat with you in Dunedin.

A: That’s a very astute observation about the "inability o manufacture runs." In an interview early this spring, Aaron Hill said very much the same thing, but when I asked Gibbons about it, he claimed that it wasn’t a big deal and didn’t cost the Jays many games. Of course, if he stated the obvious about it being a devastating weakness of the ’07 club, he would have been pointing a finger directly at fired hitting coach Mickey Brantley, a good friend of his. So don’t expect Gibby to go along with that indictment of situational hitting.

But you will, indeed, see a different offence with Eckstein at the top of the order. Most of the hit-and-run action will come at the bottom of the order with Aaron Hill, Gregg Zaun and the others. However, when Reed Johnson is batting second, it will happen at the top.

As for the batting order, I believe that Rios is a better third-place hitter than Wells and that Wells should bat fourth behind Rios. After those two big righthanded bats, the Jays should hit the doubles-machine Lyle Overbay with Thomas hitting sixth ahead of Scott Rolen. Against lefthanders, it would be okay to move Thomas up to fifth.

First off, I think the Jays will be doing a lot of hit & runs with the top of the lineup. Overbay's shown he's got great contact skills, and being left handed he could take advantage of that when Eckstein is on. Rios would be more than capable of doing this for when Eck/Lyle are on base, so it's not like the hit/run will be used the most at the bottom of the lineup. Hell, Eck will be doing a fair amount of hitting when Zaun/Hill are on base. I think what he meant to say was that most of the running will be done by the bottom of the order...but who really knows what Griffin means now-a-days.

Another thing the reader asks was whether Thomas should bat lower to avoid clogging the bases. Griffin agrees, and the proof is that he doesn't believe Thomas should hit higher than 6th against RHP. I totally agree, I don't want Thomas clogging up the bases when Vernon has gotten on base against RHP to the tune of a 306 OBP over the past 3 years.

Dick, I got something to tell you....

CLOGGING UP THE BASES IS A GOOD THING! It means you have runners on, and I'm sure you're aware of this, being a baseball writer and all, but in order to win games you need to score runs. And in order to score runs you need....runners. So more runners = more potential runs = more games won.

So now that we've got that out of the way...

Thomas deserves to hit no lower than 4th against RHP. He's the cleanup crew, and this isn't really debatable. He can clog the bases so that "doubles machine" Lyle Overbay can give base clogging Thomas a chance to score.

As for an inability to manufacture runs last year...

At any given point - Glaus, Overbay, Johnson, & Zaun were injured. They were replaced by McDonald/Clark/Smith, Stairs or Phillips, Stairs or Lind, and Phillips/Fasano. Excluding Stairs, these terrific offensive juggernauts probably had a combined line of 250/270/300. When you've got these 4 guys in the lineup, it's pretty damn tough to score runs, because... nobody is clogging up the bases. The guys in front of them won't score because those guys can't get a hit, and after they've gotten themselves out there's nobody for Rios and the other healthy regulars to drive in.

So manufacturing runs really wouldn't have made much of a difference. What did this team in is the fact that it came in 27th in the majors in OPS vs. RHP. Had the team put up a better OPS than say, 715 (which was better than the awesome lineups of Kansas City, Washington, and San Fransisco), they would have scored more runs. You realize how sad that is? 14 of 16 NL teams that used pitchers to hit, were more successful against RHP than the Jays were. Manufacturing runs isn't gonna make a difference when you can't hit 75% of the leagues pitching.

I also hope when he said Johnson is batting second, it was a typo, and that he's batting first, and only against LHP. I figure he just made a typo. After all, the keys are right next to each other...

That's it for now, but tune in for another installment of You Don't Know Dick...

You Don't Know Dick

Nation,

First let me start of by introducing myself. Will & Johnny run a great blog here, and they were kind enough to ask me to contribute every now and then. So you’ll probably hear my various rants in the style of some of my favourite blogs (other than The Southpaw, of course) such as FireJoeMorgan. In case you hadn’t already noticed, I’m a huge Colbert & Jon Stewart fan, so you’ll probably have to bear with more than a few references. Alright now that I got that out of the way, time to get down to business.

Just when you thought Dick Griffin couldn’t seem any more retarded, here he comes and throws us another curveball. Time for a (hopefully recurring) segment of “You Don’t Know Dick” (thanks, Jon Stewart ).

According to the wonderful Toronto Star, Griffin and his cronies have made some suggestions about the future of the Jays. Who the fifth starter is, whether or not Barajas is better than Zaun (answer: he’s not, but thanks for coming out), and some other intriguing facts. Apparently, JP is trying to trade every good player away!

“Why do lemmings feel obliged to plunge off a cliff? It makes no sense, yet they do it year after year. When Carlos Delgado was their best player, the Jays couldn't wait to get rid of him.”

Salary had absolutely nothing to do with that. It’s not like the Jays could afford him… cause I’m 100% sure JP didn’t want to have Carlos Delgado on his team at all. I mean come on, fan favourite, terrific offensive player, scores runs. JP’s totally against scoring runs. Good call guys.

“Wells replaced Delgado as their top talent, the team tried for two years to pawn him off before finally giving up and signing him long-term.”

Right. I mean, trading Wells would be a lot worse than signing him to a ridiculous contract considering how inconsistent Wells is.

“Now that Alex Rios has established himself, Toronto tried to trade him for Brad Penny in '06 and Tim Lincecum last season. Both efforts ultimately failed, so they will sign him long-term. The common thread is that none of the three were drafted or signed by the current regime.”

Yeah, I mean had JP offered Howie Clark or Chad Motolla the Giants would have JUMPED at the opportunity. Giants GM Brian Sabean is pretty stupid, I can’t believe JP offered Rios for a good player. God, JP is a terrible GM.

But the crown jewel of the article? Griffin and his cronies have outdone themselves.

HOW MANY WINS DO THE JAYS NEED TO EARN THE WILD CARD? TO WIN THE EAST?

Wild Card AL East

Richard Griffin 97 96

Mark Zwolinski 99 95

Cathal Kelly 98 95

According to Griffin, with all things being equal, the Jays would need more wins to come in second place than to come in first place. That’s right – 96 wins gets you the division, and 97 gets you second place. Now, I’m no mathematician, but I could have sworn if the Jays won the East with 96 wins, they could probably win the East with 97.

What Griffin and crew MEANT to say was that it’ll probably be easier/better for the Jays to win the division than the wild card, with Cleveland, Detroit, Boston, NYY, Seattle, LAA all being the crème of the AL crop. But what they said, was that you need to win more games to come in second place than to come in first.

That, my friends, is another surprise, in the always amusing world of “You Don’t Know Dick”.

Twitchy.