Could AJ stay a Jay the next two years?

I know it sounds crazy, but hear me out. AJ has had a terrible season to date, and despite having terrific stuff teams aren't going to pay him a ton of money coming off a 5.00 ERA season with a poor win/loss record (8-8). I know that's not the best way to judge a pitcher, but for the most part that's what a GM is going to pay for. His walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down compared to his past couple of years, which is a very bad combination.

We all assumed AJ would just opt-out at the end of the year - but nobody expected him to be this bad in his potential walk year. If he keeps this up, at best he'd get a 6-7 million $ deal with a slightly higher option year for 2010. Financially, it wouldn't make sense for him to take that kind of a deal if he's got a shot at making at least 12 per in the next 2 years in Toronto.

It's possible AJ could have a stellar second half. But AJ's going to have to lower his ERA by a good 1 and a half points just to have a shot at a 3-4 year deal where he's making more money than he can earn with the Jays.

So barring an epic second half, is it possible that the Jays may have AJ Burnett for the next two seasons?

Twitchy.

The Roundup JR

Alright, so it's a little late but it can't hurt to do it now...

As I'm sure you've heard by now, Shaun Marcum is going to be ok. Well, according to Doc Andrews, the report says that he "confirmed the Blue Jays’ diagnosis that the pitcher has strained ligaments around the elbow and forearm but nothing more worrisome. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday."

So he doesn't need TJ surgery or anything crazy, and he should be back to help anchor the rotation while only missing a couple of starts. The most popular names to get spot-start opportunities include John Parrish & David Purcey. There are some open spots on the 40 man roster, which means that Parrish could be added and brought up. I'm hoping it's Purcey, who hopefully does so well that it encourages the Jays to trade AJ ASAP. I have my doubts that AJ will be a type A free agent, and I'm not alone in this belief.

If AJ isn't a type A free agent, the Jays absolutely need to grab at least two prospects in a trade. Otherwise I believe the only compensation they'll get from him is a supplemental round pick.

Speaking of the devil, AJ faces off against Bronson Arroyo. An interesting matchup against the Jays - Bronson is worse away from his home park, which is surprising considering that a routine fly ball anywhere else is a HR there. Arroyo has had a ton of HR problems this season - luckily for him the Jays refuse to hit any. Expect another 0-0 game, unless....Adam Dunn decides to pretend JP's face is on every baseball thrown to him. Despite a 219 BA, Dunn has still managed a ridiculous 384 OBP, and an even more impressive 491 slugging. If his BA is 250, we're talking about a 530-540 slugging!

I have nothing against Gary Denbo, but his philosophy didn't seem well suited to the Jays. I love having patient hitters, but the collection of hitters JP assembled are built to hit the first good pitch they see and, in most cases, pull it as hard as they could. Denbo essentially wanted them to draw out an at bat and use the whole field, which I believe may have played a part in the offensive struggles so far. Which is why at some level, it's very refreshing to hear this:

"We have to get back to the basics," Tenace said. "We've got to get more aggressive in the strike zone. The on-base percentage will take care of itself. I think they're a little tentative at the plate. They're feeling for the ball.

"We've got to get more aggressive and let it go. Then, let's see how we do with that. Once we get a couple of these guys going, it's kind of contagious."

I think I mentioned something to this effect in one of my earlier posts. Once they stop taking pitches and hit the first good pitch that they like, they should start getting back to hitting to their career #'s. And like Tenace says, one these guys start feeling comfortable, the walks will start coming naturally. I didn't have a lot of faith in the bats returning to their previous levels of established production, but maybe there's a chance that things can turn around. I'm not talking about reaching the playoffs - just hitting the damn ball. I'm tired of 1-0 games.

Look, I think bringing back Gaston isn't a horrible move. I mean, he seems to be making the decisions here. All indications are that he wanted Lind in LF, which makes Gaston a hero in my books. He brought up League too, and again, these were moves that should have been made sooner rather than later. So I'd definetly like him to have some input on the 25 man roster. But this article by Griffin about how Gaston should be GM is downright retarded.

There's a big difference between being a GM & being a manager. Gaston is clearly a smart baseball man, and can make a difference as a manager. He's obviously good at getting players to be calm, relaxed, and produce well. Look at the difference between Lind now and earlier in the season - one Lind looked like he knew he'd be sent down if he didn't hit like Lance Berkman, and the other looked like he knew that he'd get a shot at playing whether or not he hit like Neifi Perez. So from an outside point of view, Gaston seems to be extremely good at communicating, and I'll buy into the fact that maybe, he can get underpeforming players to perform better.

But being a GM is more complicated than that. He's got to focus on every single player in the organization - he needs to know when to promote who, who to demote, who to release, and most importantly, what to trade for. Knowing who to acquire is one thing, knowing what to give up to acquire who you need. And I don't know if Gaston is the best candidate for the job. Everytime a GM spot opens up La Cava's name pops up, so when JP is kicked to the curb, I'd love to see La Cava get a shot.

Another thing is that it's very rare to have a manager be a GM. It's just too much work, and I'd rather have Gaston focused on getting the most out of the 25 men playing for the Jays, than worrying about balancing the present & future of the organization.

Shame on Griffin for even suggesting it. I'll throw out one thing he said that really bothered me (and only one, because otherwise i'd be quoting the entire damn thing):
That leaves the GM's role. Baseball's best GMs are not necessarily the smartest. They are the best because they surround themselves with complementary talents. If Gaston became GM (and he likes living in Toronto, as opposed to some) he already has a talented young assistant in Canadian Alex Anthopoulos to handle the minutiae and contracts. As for the senior guys on the baseball side, Gaston has a lot of friends from his many years in baseball to tap into.

Really? Baseball's best Gm's aren't the smartest? You're gonna tell me Beane & John Schuerholz aren't (or weren't in Schuerholz case) the smartest in the game, or even the most successful GM's considering their respective situations? Are you fucking kidding me? What the fuck is this bullshit? The GM better be the fucking smartest person on the team. He's gotta make the most important decisions on the team. And if Gaston has this talented assistant (who hypothetically stays assistant GM despite being brushed aside for a guy who's essentially never worked in a front office position like a GM), why wouldn't the fucking talented assistant be GM over Gaston?

So yeah. Gaston is a big help as a manager, but this is just ridiculous. La Cava for GM, starting 09! Git'er'done!

Elsewhere:

Barry Zito is apparently "making mechanical adjustments" which would help him increase his velocity and give him more movement. My inside sources tell me that his increased velocity was due to a light breeze that carried the ball almost all the way to home plate before bouncing in the dirt. Brian Sabean continues to compete with Richard Griffin for "The how the fuck does this guy still have a job?" award.

Once again, I'm sorry this was done so late. I'll do my best to do it in the morning tomorrow...

Twitchy.

The Roundup JR

Well, that series couldn't have ended any worse. I didn't get a chance to see the game, but after reading the boxscore I'm thinking that was a blessing in disguise. The Jays tried my DH/C platoon idea with Barajas catching and Zaun dhing, and it kinda worked. Zaun at least had a nice game at the plate hitting a 2 run bomb.

Outside of that HR though, I'm wondering where all the power has gone. You know somethings not right when Rod Barajas, good as he's been, is third on the team with 5 HR, and the guy who missed a month, Vernon Wells, is second with 7. Rios obviously needs to pick it up, but the other player who's shown a somewhat surprising lack of power is Rolen.

Now I know, Rolen is the Greatest Jay ever and to speak ill of him is blasphemy. But over his last 17 at bats he's been really struggling, hitting 118/250/294. Even worse - over his past 93 at bats he's been primarily a singles hitter, posting a line of 269/376/387. I think Rolen has escaped most of the blame because we were all in awe about how amazing he was during his first couple of weeks. But lately, Rolen has been just as guilty of bringing down the offense, if not moreso, than Rios. At least Rios is showing some signs of life lately.

By now everyone knows that Thigpen was sent down to AAA to activate Zaun from the d/l. But that doesn't change the fact that the way they used him was downright shameful. He was terrific behind the plate for Marcum's start, and as a potentially useful prospect down the road to give him 6 at bats during a 15 day period is just unacceptable. I don't know if this was due to Barajas' hot streak (of which playing virtually every day but one in Zaun's 15+ day absence is batshit crazy). Maybe it was because Gibbons didn't trust Thigpen, although after his start with Marcum I don't see how this would be the case. Hell, maybe it was because of some unknown factor (orders from JP?). Regardless, the fact he got 6 AB over a 15 day period, is terrible development by the Jays, and once again shows a lack of foresight when dealing with prospects. I realize the Jays are trying to compete, and using Thigpen too often may not be the best way to do so. But you're telling me over 15 days they couldn't have found a way to get him some at bats every day or every other day?

AJ Burnett continues to show us why he's such a tool. He made some statements about how if he wasn't a Jay he'd love to be a Cub. AJ, here's a little tip for you - your first and only response to any question about "Would you like to play for team X" should be "I'm happy as a Toronto Blue Jay and I can't imagine playing anywhere else". No more, no less. We know you're lying, and you know you're lying if you say that, but at least it looks good to the media. Nobody gives a shit what team you actually want to play for (except for the one you're playing on now). If you just play dumb, and keep those those thoughts to yourself, than everybody's happy. It makes a world of difference saying "I like the team I'm on" vs "I like the team I'm on, but..."

What I found interesting from that link wasn't about AJ and the Cubs, but about his opt out:

"I have an opt out in my contract," Burnett said. "So people are going to have their own opinion on that. Everybody's talking about me opting out, but nobody's talking about me staying. There's a 100-percent chance of that as well."

If there's a 100% chance of you not opting out, than why was an opt out put into your contract? I don't even care if JP offered you an opt out - if you planned on staying, wouldn't it have made more sense to say "no thanks, I don't want an opt out because I plan on playing all 5 years with this team"?

And if there is a 100% chance of you staying, why don't you prove it by getting your lawyers with the Jays lawyers and removing the opt-out from your contract?

The Jays have an off day today, and they play the Brew Crew in Milwaukee on Tuesday. Oh boy, with the pitcher hitting, this team will have even less offense!

Elsewhere:

Eric Gagne is starting to throw off the mound in his attempt to rehab from injury. Despite his 1-2 record, a 6.98 ERA, and his 2.02 WHIP, I strongly believe some team will buy into the fact that Gagne was awesome 5 years ago and give him a ridiculous contract in 2009. He'll be 33 by then, and should classify as an aging veteran, so Gagne should be at the top of Brian Sabean's 2009 FA wish list.

Chris Carpenter had a set back in his return from TJ. He's gone to see Doc Andrews to find out if "he has a nerve condition common to recipients of the surgery". He'd be out till 2009 if he did have that nerve issue. It's really a shame how Carpenter has been injured for nearly his entire career, cause the past few years when he was healthy he was a monster.

Twitchy.

Mornin Observations

After watching AJ's dominant outing against a very strong Phillies lineup, I wanted to check out his splits with Barajas. It always seems like he's incredibly dominant when Barajas is his battery-mate, and lousy with Zaun. Nothing against Zaun of course, but AJ & Barajas look like they have tremendous chemistry.

Here are the splits (Ba/OBP/slug) for AJ with Barajas & Zaun behind the plate:

Barajas: 207/286/303 (589 OPS)
Zaun: 368/438/566 (1.004 OPS)
I'll give Zaun the benefit of a 450 BAPIP, compared to a 250ish one from when Barajas is behind the plate. But those splits make it pretty damn clear that Barajas needs to be catching AJ everytime out. The only way to win this year is to make sure AJ opts-out, and he can only do that if he has a winning season. And if he has a winning season, the Jays will be in the playoff race.

Lineup issues

Now, it's been said time and time again that the order of a lineup makes little to no difference on how the team performs. So if that's the case, feel free to skip this and read on to Will's brilliant post about the minors...

Alright still here? Cool. Now, when Gibbons was making the lineup back in the AL parks, you may have noticed some platoon issues - 2 RH batters, 2 LH batters in a row. Things like that. My lineup tries to eliminate that, while keeping everyone in line with their respective skill set:

1st - Alex Rios, CF - I know, people hate him leading off. But he was struggling before he was moved to the leadoff spot, and he'd have slumped hitting 1st, 3rd, or 9th. He's the catalyst of this team, and we need guys to get on base for the middle of the lineup to drive them in. Rios gives us that "Sizemore" type player at the top of the lineup, and gets shit going.

2nd - Lyle Overbay 1B- He's a good doubles hitter, but more importantly is the 370+ OBP. You wanna score a lot of runs? Put a high OBP guy at the top...Vs LHP Eckstein can bat second when he returns.

3rd - Rolen 3B- best hitter on this team. He's not a HR slugger, but he has a high slugging %, so he'll be a perfect fit here. Also has a ridiculously good eye, as seen by the 15 pitch at bats he had in Minnesota.

4th - Stairs, DH - He's the big HR guy, the classic slugger, and the obvious choice against RHP to bat fourth. Mench, when he's healthy, can play RF and bat fourth against Southpaws.

5th - Aaron Hill 2B - A surprising choice, but he's capable of hitting 5th, mainly because the options behind him suck. Stairs would bat fifth vs lefties.

6th - Gregg Zaun C - Except for when AJ is pitching, Zaunnie bats 6th. Great OBP to start a new rally once Stairs clears the bases. Hill bats here vs LHP

7th - Stew LF - You all know I'd rather have Lind here, but realistically Stew's the guy we need to hit 7th. Overbay bats here vs LHP.

8th - RF Wilkerson - Just filling out roster spots at this point....Zaun bats here vs LHP

9th - David Eckstein SS- nuff said. Stew or Wilkerson can play LF and bat here vs LHP.

So the final result of my lineups are:

vs RHP - Rios, Overbay, Rolen, Stairs, Hill, Zaun, Stew, Wilkerson, Eckstein

vs LHP - Rios, Eck, Rolen, Mench, Stairs, Hill, Overbay, Zaun, Wilkerson/Stew

I think my lineups are a lot more intimidating, and better served against late game so that opposing managers can't go too the loogy or RH set up man and go through 2-3 hitters in a row and have a platoon advantage.

Twitchy.