Jinkies! A Clue!

I couldn't resist the temptation to get the scoop on this story. I'm not 100% sure that the source is reliable but it's credible enough I'm going to run with it. According to the Syracuse Chiefs Game Notes for yesterday's game, Kevin Mench was demoted to make room for the activation of Scott Rolen.


That thought had occurred to me right away when Mench's demotion was announced but I dismissed it assuming Rolen had missed enough time that he'd need a couple of rehab games. Apparently not. I'm not sure whether to be glad that this implies Rolen's shoulder responded to treatment (and thus the team knows what to do about his difficulties) or to see this as basically giving up on the treatment they were using and activating him in an act of blind hope. Still, as is my way, I'll be optimistic until events force me to be otherwise.

By the way, hat tip to FisherCat at Batters' Box for the lead.

~WillRain

Update:
Jordan Bastian confirms Rolen is being activated and reports that Rolen has retooled his swing in a way that he thinks will allow him to play every day. Here's hoping. Also, he note Jeremy Accardo is being shut down for the year and will pay a visit to Dr. Andrews about his troublesome forearm.

What, me under-achive?

For all that has been said about the disappointing results of the Jays offense this year, and for all his Alfred E. Rios space cadet moments, Alex Rios seems to have been the one guy who really really liked the idea of Cito Gaston as his manager. Including yesterdays outburst against the Red Sox, Rios has a very nice result for the part of the season (50 games now) that Gaston has been at the helm.

Observe:

200 AB, 20 Doubles, 4 Triples, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 15 SB
.315 - .346 - .545 - .891

Now, let's pro-rate that to 162 games:
65 doubles, 13 triples, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 49 SB

That'd be a pretty decent year, eh?

On a less encouraging note, while looking up those stats I stumbled across something very grim about Scott Rolen. I have resolutely defended him by saying he had one horrible month which wrecked an otherwise good season. But what I discovered is that outside of a nine game hot streak in late June (in which he was incredibly hot) he was a very bad hitter from May 31 on until they shut him down. Over that period - with those nine games set aside, Rolen hit

.180/.275/.255/.530 in 161 at bats.

That means that for all practical purposes, he came off the DL in April and had 34 good games before he started struggling. That means, and I'm man enough to admit it, that the Pessimists who warned that Rolen might still have difficulty because of his shoulder are vindicated. It's inexplicable to me that everyone who is supposed to know, from Rolen to the medical people could say "everything is healthy and pain free" and yet he could still not be able to hit well for reasons that can't even be quantified and addressed. But there it is. And unless he gets it back as mysteriously as he lost it - or retires - the Jays are going to have to have big question marks regarding 3B for next year. I don't like saying it but I'll be damned if I can be accused of ducking the fact that my optimism was not born out.

~WillRain

Noted in passing...

I'll refrain from extensive remarks on Rolen and the Rolen/Glaus deal in hindsight--though I do not shy from being a big backer of the deal--but if this does happen to be the end of his year, I wanted to make a passing observation while the topic is hot.

Through Rolen's first 59 games this season, he had an .851 OPS and was on a pace that, over 142 games, would have amounted to 43 doubles and 14 HR. Now, it is true that the Jays lack for power. It's also true that at this point we don't know for sure what if anything that ghostly shoulder difficulty will allow Rolen to do. Obviously if this is the sort of thing that's going to keep him from getting through a productive season ever again, then it's a total loss. That was always the risk the deal involved.

But laying the worst case scenario aside, IF the Jays had to resign themselves to the fact that they are paying $11 million per for a stellar defensive 3B who's offensive ceiling is .850...that's not a bad deal at all. Especially when you consider the dearth of potentially better 3Bs available to them. Given the health, contract, and discontent situation we had with Glaus, if that's what we end up having received for him, I'm cool with it.

~WillRain

Cue the Eeyore Chorus

As reported by Jordan Bastian among many others, Scott Rolen confesses he's having issues with his surgically repaired shoulder. This, of course, provokes the doom and gloom crowd to come to the for with proclamations about how they knew he was washed up all along and that this is what we get for making an ill-advised trade and so on and so forth... in other words the folks who had remarkably little to say about the Rolen trade a month ago when Rolen was among the best hitters on the team.

Rolen assures us the shoulder has been checked out and there is no lack of strength, no pending surgery, no damage...just that "something mechanical isn't right". But because of one horrible month (of the sort most all players routinely have on occasion) many of the nihilistic Jays fans are back on the ledge again.

Now, is it POSSIBLE that we are looking at a guy who's career has been short-circuited and he'll never be productive over a full season again?

Absolutely.

Do we KNOW that?

Hell no.

So why are so many professed fans so very very anxious to ASSUME the worst possible case?

It's just as possible that a little rest and rehab will put him right back where he was in June. As I have observed elsewhere, the folks who were certain that Rolen would suck had nothing at all to say on June 1 when Glaus had all of 2 HR in St. Louis (including Bob MacLeod who was only too quick to cite Glaus' stats for no apparent reason in his report on Rolen's issues) and still nothing to say when Rolen was outperforming Glaus through June 30. . . now they are out in full voice.

And they wonder why I have so much trouble taking them seriously.

~WillRain

Wake me up, I must be dreaming

It's only one game, but I think Cito & Tenace have already made a big impact on the team. It's been mentioned before that their goal was to get this team to be more aggressive earlier in the count, and get back to doing whatever it was that got them to the majors - pulling the ball, hitting to all fields - and sticking to that game plan.

The scouting report on the Jays as a team was obviously to get ahead in the count, knowing the Jays would take some pitches, and once ahead expand the zone and take advantage of a pitchers count. But tonight, when Arroyo through fastball after fastball down the middle, the Jays jumped on it and crushed everything Arroyo threw at them.

Alex Rios hit a HR for what seemed like the first time since 2006. I'm really hoping that he's starting to find his groove, rather than him just taking advantage of a ridiculously bad Arroyo. Rolen and Zaun also joined in on the HR fun, and it was nice to see Rolen show some power. As I mentioned earlier, he had a 100 AB streak where he was basically a good singles hitter with discipline.

Adam Lind only went 2-5 last night, driving in a run and boosting his average to 185. He's hitting 500/556/875 since his return to the majors, in a grand total of 8 AB's. If we can call him a bust after 19 at bats, then we should give him an MVP award based on 8 AB's too.

Edit: I forgot to add that I'm really hoping that this offensive outburst has more to do with the Jays being aggressive, and not because Bronson Arroyo sucks.

Lost in the offensive outburst was the return to form of AJ Burnett. He pitched 8 dominant innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 ER, 3BB and 7K's. Tallet was pretty good in the 9th as well, allowing no hits, no walks & striking out one. I still feel a little nervous when he's pitching, but you have to admire the depth of the Jays bullpen that with a 13 run lead, the Jays can trot out a pitcher with a 2.17 ERA heading into the game (now 2.10).

Considering the struggles of virtually every bullpen in the game, it would be wise for the Jays to trade a couple of relievers for prospects or even in a package to help them acquire an upgrade in the lineup. Tallet, Frasor and Wolfe could all be moved, and considering the market for relievers the Jays could expect a decent piece in return. Well, not for Frasor, but for a lefty with a 2.10 ERA who can get RH batters out, and a young, cheap RH reliever in Wolfe, they should be able to get a return.

If any of the names I mentioned are traded, the Jays will not have to go out and find a new reliever. They have several options in AAA, most notably Davis Romero.

The big question on my mind is where do the Jays go from here? The best case scenario is that the offense starts performing to pre-season expectations, and is a middle of the pack AL lineup. Not a great one, but with this pitching staff, enough to have a very competitive season. The other scenario, one we've seen too many times over the past 4-5 years, is that after a big win like this the Jays lose the next two games 2-1 and 6-3. I think tonights game of Halladay vs Harang (who up to this year had been one of the most underrated starters in the NL) will go a long way too showing us if the Jays are for real or not.

Twitchy.

The Roundup JR

Well, that series couldn't have ended any worse. I didn't get a chance to see the game, but after reading the boxscore I'm thinking that was a blessing in disguise. The Jays tried my DH/C platoon idea with Barajas catching and Zaun dhing, and it kinda worked. Zaun at least had a nice game at the plate hitting a 2 run bomb.

Outside of that HR though, I'm wondering where all the power has gone. You know somethings not right when Rod Barajas, good as he's been, is third on the team with 5 HR, and the guy who missed a month, Vernon Wells, is second with 7. Rios obviously needs to pick it up, but the other player who's shown a somewhat surprising lack of power is Rolen.

Now I know, Rolen is the Greatest Jay ever and to speak ill of him is blasphemy. But over his last 17 at bats he's been really struggling, hitting 118/250/294. Even worse - over his past 93 at bats he's been primarily a singles hitter, posting a line of 269/376/387. I think Rolen has escaped most of the blame because we were all in awe about how amazing he was during his first couple of weeks. But lately, Rolen has been just as guilty of bringing down the offense, if not moreso, than Rios. At least Rios is showing some signs of life lately.

By now everyone knows that Thigpen was sent down to AAA to activate Zaun from the d/l. But that doesn't change the fact that the way they used him was downright shameful. He was terrific behind the plate for Marcum's start, and as a potentially useful prospect down the road to give him 6 at bats during a 15 day period is just unacceptable. I don't know if this was due to Barajas' hot streak (of which playing virtually every day but one in Zaun's 15+ day absence is batshit crazy). Maybe it was because Gibbons didn't trust Thigpen, although after his start with Marcum I don't see how this would be the case. Hell, maybe it was because of some unknown factor (orders from JP?). Regardless, the fact he got 6 AB over a 15 day period, is terrible development by the Jays, and once again shows a lack of foresight when dealing with prospects. I realize the Jays are trying to compete, and using Thigpen too often may not be the best way to do so. But you're telling me over 15 days they couldn't have found a way to get him some at bats every day or every other day?

AJ Burnett continues to show us why he's such a tool. He made some statements about how if he wasn't a Jay he'd love to be a Cub. AJ, here's a little tip for you - your first and only response to any question about "Would you like to play for team X" should be "I'm happy as a Toronto Blue Jay and I can't imagine playing anywhere else". No more, no less. We know you're lying, and you know you're lying if you say that, but at least it looks good to the media. Nobody gives a shit what team you actually want to play for (except for the one you're playing on now). If you just play dumb, and keep those those thoughts to yourself, than everybody's happy. It makes a world of difference saying "I like the team I'm on" vs "I like the team I'm on, but..."

What I found interesting from that link wasn't about AJ and the Cubs, but about his opt out:

"I have an opt out in my contract," Burnett said. "So people are going to have their own opinion on that. Everybody's talking about me opting out, but nobody's talking about me staying. There's a 100-percent chance of that as well."

If there's a 100% chance of you not opting out, than why was an opt out put into your contract? I don't even care if JP offered you an opt out - if you planned on staying, wouldn't it have made more sense to say "no thanks, I don't want an opt out because I plan on playing all 5 years with this team"?

And if there is a 100% chance of you staying, why don't you prove it by getting your lawyers with the Jays lawyers and removing the opt-out from your contract?

The Jays have an off day today, and they play the Brew Crew in Milwaukee on Tuesday. Oh boy, with the pitcher hitting, this team will have even less offense!

Elsewhere:

Eric Gagne is starting to throw off the mound in his attempt to rehab from injury. Despite his 1-2 record, a 6.98 ERA, and his 2.02 WHIP, I strongly believe some team will buy into the fact that Gagne was awesome 5 years ago and give him a ridiculous contract in 2009. He'll be 33 by then, and should classify as an aging veteran, so Gagne should be at the top of Brian Sabean's 2009 FA wish list.

Chris Carpenter had a set back in his return from TJ. He's gone to see Doc Andrews to find out if "he has a nerve condition common to recipients of the surgery". He'd be out till 2009 if he did have that nerve issue. It's really a shame how Carpenter has been injured for nearly his entire career, cause the past few years when he was healthy he was a monster.

Twitchy.

A Feel Good Loss?

Is there such a thing? If there is, I think Dave Purcey took one tonight.

After running out of gas after throwing 5 innings in his last outing, Purcey went deep against Norfolk and ended up getting tagged with the loss. He was dealing through 8, but surrended a solo shot to Scott Moore before getting yanked down 3-0 after 7.1 IP. His control was good, walking only 1, K-ing 6 and throwing 67 of 102 pitches for strikes. He kept the ball on the ground, inducing 11 ground outs to 5 fly outs. This was a good outing despite the outcome.

Offensively, the Chiefs were in deep hibernation; Adam Lind wasn't in the lineup again and we're starting to wonder... JP denied knowledge of anything untoward happening to his starting left fielder for 2009 in his weekly phone-in with Wilner on Wednesday, so I think it's pretty clear that something untoward has happened. One of my colleagues here in the history department at the random Ontario university I go to just got back from a conference in Lake Placid and did a stop over in Syracuse on the drive back home. He was happy to report that autographed Lind photos are a staple at area liquor stores. Cirrhosis of the liver? Seems as good of an internet rumour as any. Tell your friends.

Meanwhile, the Jays are knotted at 2 with the Angels. Scott Rolen, frankly, is the best third baseman I've ever seen ever in my entire life. He's better than the third-basemaning I imagined Mike Schmidt was doing in Philly when I put baseball card sticker books together back in grade two. He is to his position what J-Mac is short stop: an artiste schooled at the Sorbonne.

Rando thoughts: Casey Kotchman is the most fearsome bat in this lineup, would you have predicted that in March? Francisco Rodriguez just ain't right. I think he's going to suffer a major arm injury at some point this summer. The home plate ump here is fucking high, his strike zone is all over the shop.

I'm becoming furious with the extended commercial breaks on Sportsnet. They frequently come back one to two pitches into an AB and we just missed an Eckstein double in the top of the 8th. Occasionally an inning "starts" with one out already. I realize ad revenue keeps these broadcasts free for Joe Blow, but seriously.

Brett Lawrie, some other Canucks and the draft? A week ago it seemed like the Jays would be overdrafting if they took him and now it seems unlikely that he'll slip to the 17th pick in the first round. My brother likes to brag that The Economist rates Vancouver as the best city to live in in the world, and the lower BC Delta just adds to its superiority by hosting the best amateur baseball league in the country. I really like Ontario and all, but the West Coast beckons.

Do you want "The Roundup" on Saturdays? Leave a comment if you do. I can pound this stuff out and eat bacon and eggs at the same time should popular demand warrant it.

-- Johnny Was

Jays 1, Cards 0

With Rolen just passing the 100 AB mark, I think it's time to do a quick check on how he's doing compared to Troy Glaus.

Glaus - 174 AB, 17 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 270 (WTF?)/380/402 (782 OPS), and an 843 ZR. The ZR is good enough for second in the majors for qualifying 3B, which is as mind boggling as his 270 BA.

Rolen - 106 AB, 13 R, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 3 SB, 0 CS, 302/380/481 (861 OPS). Rolen doesn't have enough innings at 3B to qualify, but if he did he'd be the leading defender with an amazing 878 ZR.

It's probably a couple of years too early to say we won the trade, but man, the Jays kicked the Cardinals ass so far in that trade.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

This team is seriously in danger of losing me and there's absolutely no way more of this horseshit can compete with the 2-hour finale of Lost tonight. "Malaise" is right, Blair.

After reading Will's post about GIDP my mind wandered to something I read a few years back about Crystal Palace FC, an English football club that had some success back in the early '90s to go along with the second coolest name in the sport after Arsenal. A journo from one of the trashier British tabloids took in a Palace practice and was struck at how lackadaisically the players went through the motions. When he questioned the team captain about why they blew off practice, he was told that "practicing makes us tired." Well no shit, you just can't argue with that logic.

Sometimes things are bad because they're supposed to be bad.

Ah, back to the ol' Bullshit Detector above.

A good number of JaysTalk callers phone in without the foggiest of ideas about what they're going to say (like the guy who wanted to trade for Juan Pierre), but I had reached the conclusion the discourse was somewhat more intelligent for Wednesday's with JP. Someone inevitably asked about trading for "Canadian Boy" Jason Bay (right after somewhat ironically slamming Matt Stairs), prompting two things from JP. First, JP asked the caller to throw down and tell us all who he'd trade. The caller said Jesse Litsch, prompting a paradoxial reply that The Body was too valuable/cost efficient to us, but had little trade value in the eyes of other clubs. Uh, ok?

But it was the second thing that threw me. Paraphrasing, JP said something to the effect of "First, he's not available. And I don't know if you've checked the numbers but he's not exactly tearing it up." Not available? His availability is the worst kept non-secret in the sport. He's more available than Dunn or Griffey, that's for sure. The Pirates might wait until they fall further out of contention before making a move, but they simply cannot afford to keep him in '09. If you think Neal Huntington is foolish enough to believe that he's got anything remotely approaching the 4th best club in the National League you're off your fucking tits.

"Not exactly tearing it up." Bay has a .259/.392/.487 line for a 132 OPS+ to go along with 10 HR. If that's not tearing it up, I don't know what is. And sorry, Scott Rolen is the Greatest Blue Jay Ever, but Bay has the same offensive profile and is slightly out-hitting Rolen Thunder to date, not to mention the rest of the sad sack flaccid little bats that round out the rest of our lineup. I wish I had an entire team of guys like Rolen and Bay.

It's awfully tempting to give up the ghost on this year. I think we all knew that it was going to take a monster V-Dub year a la 2003/2006 for us to seriously be in contention and his replacement for 2+ months by Brad Wilkerson can probably be singled out as the most glaring reason why we're thrashing vainly in the quicksand. John Hale at the Mockingbird sliced through the fog by showing all and sundry that the bats haven't been any better in May despite the team's improved record. It basically comes down to this: you make an impact trade right quick or you accept mediocrity and start making up a list of guys you dump for prospects at the trade deadline. Don't worry, we'll be on that soon enough.

Speaking of trade bait, David Eckstein had a setback in his rehab outing and isn't expected to rejoin the big club tonight as expected. I swear I saw Hector Luna come into last night's game as a pinch runner, I swear it!

Alex Rios can add "horrible baserunner" to his CV according to The Oracle. You do have to credit the guy for coming up with creative new ways to lose games on a nightly basis.

Darren Thomson of Vancouver, B.C. is the first recipient of The Southpaw Award for Courage and Valour in the Line of Fandom for calling Dick Griffin out on his assinine "four guys, six years" assessment of JP's draft record. Well played, sir. And I encourage you to read on because Dick begins one answer "Fo’schizzle less ster-izzle my Rot-izzle." Seriously. And in the next one he assuses Rance Mulliniks of being a chronic masturbator. I am not making this shit up.

ELSEWHERE:

* It begins. A-Rod off the DL, Joba Chamberlain to the rotation. Pardon me while I choke on my own vomit. But it looks like CM Wang might have a calf strain... resisting temptation to make "wang" joke, moving on...

* Bleech, even worse! Bartolo Cologne (haha) started and took the win for the Bosox last night. He clearly did not use his rehab stint to lose weight, though.

-- Johnny Was

A little self congratulation....

I note with interest that Stoeten has conceded that the boys at the Tao were the first to use the ever-more-popular appellation "The Greatest Blue Jay Ever" in reference to Scott Rolen.

That may perhaps be true, but they were not the first one to exhibit irrational exuberance in regards to the Main Man. that would be your truly. Here's a comment I made on February 20 on this very blog:

"Scott Rolen is a "difference maker" - no, Scott Rolen is THE Difference Maker for the Toronto Blue Jays."

Is it MY fault that was said in relative obscurity? So, maybe "The difference maker" didn't catch on. You still got to admit I didn't need to see Rolen set the world on fire in late April to acknowledge his greatness. I've also already said in public, and say here and now again...I think that when winter gets here the Jays ought to go ahead and talk to TDM about taking another 2/3 years onto his current deal.

He's. Just. That. Good.

So there.

~WillRain

The Roundup

In the words of Mark McGwire, "I'm not here to talk about the past" (three games against the Tampa Ray Rays). Ok, I made that end part up, but I'm still not talking about it.

Scott Rolen will indeed be starting at the hot corner tonight as we kick off a 3-game road set against the Royals, another team that's not quite so lowly as they used to be. There is much talk that no one is expecting him to be the club's saviour, though quietly everyone is indeed expecting him to fill that role. Well, at least I am.

Shit... Dick Griffin writes that Rolen is the answer to the Jays shortcomings, which means that things can only go horribly wrong from here.

Blair is soliciting questions for a mailbag later today, so if you have anything you'd like to ask the old grump, fire it this way.

Adam Lind Watch: speculation grew mid-afternoon that he was on his way to join the Jays when he wasn't in the starting lineup for the Chiefs matinee with Pawtucket yesterday. Sadly, though, the hopes of dozens of like-minded nerds who actually have minor league gamedays open on their desktops were dashed when he came in to pinch hit (hitting a single) late in the game. Lind is now hitting a mere Tony Gwyn-esque .365, falling far short of JP's Ted Williams 1941 expectations for the young slugger.

Gibby responded to allegations that he's "abusing Doc" with a curt "go fuck yourself" (note: not his actual words). Bastian notes that Doc has averaged only 111 pitches over his past 3 starts, all complete games, and there's nothing out of the ordinary in that. I don't mind letting Doc finish games; in fact, when he takes the hill I'm actually expecting him to throw a complete game. It would be quite interesting to see how Cy Young voters would react if he was to put up about 15 CGs this year. How do you even measure the awesomeness of that accomplishment these days? We really should have his DNA sent off to a South Korean lab for human cloning.

Wilner invents the word "pathetictude" to describe the performance of the Jays' bats down in Florida. That's one of the things that I like about Wilner, how he makes up words like "Blue Jayically" and "bloggage". He figures that Lind will be in the lineup tonight, mmhmm... do go on...

Since nobody puts it in perspective better, here's the warm hug that is MW trying to soothe your jangled nerves:

All is not lost because the Blue Jays are actually a good team, all evidence to the contrary. They sit 4th in the league in on-base percentage and 5th in the league in ERA. Eventually all those runners, all those chances, will turn into some scoring. They’re hitting .260 as a team, but .234 with runners in scoring position. Worse still, just .216 with RISP and two out. I mean, that’s Yankee bad! But things even out over the course of 162 games, and by the end of it all, the Jays’ hitting in all situations should be about the same. Which means they’re due. Of course, they’ve been due for a six- or seven-game winning streak for a few years now, but that’s another story.

The power outage is what’s so hard to explain. Tied for last in the league in home runs, 11th in the league in doubles. It’s baffling, but I honestly don’t think there’s any reason to believe it won’t come around. Even without Frank Thomas, the Jays should get enough offense from Hill, Rios, Wells, Stairs, Rolen and Overbay to make them a better-than-decent line-up, and Eckstein, Zaun and (hopefully) Lind are all better-than-average bats at their positions. This is a team that should score, and not just against the Red Sox. And I believe it will.

Doesn't that feel better?

Ken Rosenthal concurs with JP's assessment that John Gibbons is an easy target and doesn't deserve to be fired. And yet that still might happen (for both men) if this slow start drags on much longer.

Frank Thomas claims to be quite happy to be back with the A's. I note without commentary that he was 0 for 3 with 2 walks in his re-debut (is that a Wilnerism?) with the Kelly Green and Golders. There you go, guy. An everyday gig. Prove the naysayers wrong.

Marc Hulet of fangraphs takes a look at rookie catcher Robinzon Diaz. We all know he's a bad ball hitter who rarely walks (or strikes out), but I found this interesting:

One other interesting knock on Diaz throughout his career is that he tended to take it easy and never really gave his all. People have said that he is a good player, who could be a very good player if he dedicated himself to the game on an everyday basis. As a result, Diaz could end up being a lot like Florida’s Hanley Ramirez, who has posted much better numbers on the center stage that is Major League Baseball, than he ever did in the minors.

Yes, indeed. If JP could move Barajas this summer to a contender short on catching (hello, Cincinatti), or just outright release him, we'll probably end up seeing more of Diaz in the second half. I prefer Brian Jeroloman in the long run, but we'll likely be going with a rookie catcher to platoon with Zaunner in '09. If Zaunner re-signs, that is.

Go Jays!

-- Johnny Was

The Roundup

First, the apologies.

Perhaps I was overly quick to assume that Gibbons was rotating his few good players through rest days for no particularly good reason, but it came out yesterday that there's been a flu bug going through the clubhouse. Why this wasn't stated a few days ago is unclear, but anyway, perhaps Gibby should team up with Don Cherry to shill for Cold fX? Sorry, skip! I'll never doubt you again.

Last night's JaysTalk was pretty solid because there was actual stuff to talk to JP about rather than the typical nitpicking/Chicken Little routine of most callers. John Lott of the National Post provides a quick and dirty summary here. The good news is that Scott Rolen will most likely be activated tomorrow. The bad news is that JP really sees no rush to promote Adam Lind (hence the above pic) and will leave him to demolish AAA pitching while Shannon Stewart trolls for walks, interspersing them with the rare single, on the big club.

Yes, and true to my prediction yesterday, he did mention that Shannon Stewart is a "lifetime .300 hitter."

Now, JP has a weird thing about not wanting to make players feel like they're entitled to anything for fear that it might undermine their work ethic or competitive drive. I don't mind that. It is, however, blatantly obvious to all that Lind is "the guy", but I suppose we're going to have to wait for an injury for him to get his turn. If, as JP admits, the team is getting on base at a great clip but isn't scoring because of a low SLG%, you'd think there'd be all the more reason to callup a youngster with a 1.000 OPS in AAA. I find this massively disappointing.

Wilner has been one of the loudest voices in the draft Barry Bonds movement, so it's no surprise that he concludes that JP probably wants to sign him, but Godfrey and Ted Rogers/money are obstacles. Overbay's struggles were mentioned, but in his case--not Frank Thomas' of course--20 games is too small a sample size to jump to any conclusion. Mmmhmmm.

Jesse Litsch is not about to lose his job, according to Bastian. When Gibby blew up on him the other day it was kind of like a dad finding out his son has been smoking weed: he felt really let down, but he'll probably let things slide, because, you know, they're blood. And because everyone goes through that phase.

Blair reveals that the press in TO and TB, the players, and everyone aside from a less than sellout crowd thinks it's an awful idea to play regular season games at a spring training facility. It's actually kind of offensive, really. The Bosox and A's get to play in front of 50, 000 screaming Japanese fans in Tokyo, the Dodgers and Padres get to play the first MLB exhibition game in China, and we play in front of a crowd that's possibly 50% under the age of 10. Just a detour on the way to Space Mountain.

Blair also shares our concern for the precipitous decline in Lyle Overbay's power production.

Are the A's going to sign Frank Thomas or what? MLBTR says there's more than one team expressing interest. It would amount to a massive bitch slap to JP from his mentor Billy Beane if the Big Shit Disturber did indeed go back to Oakland.

On a related note, Marc Hulet at Fangraphs expects the Jays to promote Travis Snider aggressively. He figures JP wants to prove his drafting prowess to one and all, adding a second impact player drafted under his watch to the roster (Aaron Hill being the first). There's that Marcum guy, too, but interesting nevertheless.

ELSEWHERE:

* We were lucky to play the Tigers when we did, because now they're wringing the necks of the opposition like supper chickens.

-- Johnny Was

Double Take

Brandon League - You still know who that is right? I know, been a while since we heard the name and all. So I figured being his biggest supporter I'd give you an update on how he's done so far.

He was sent down what, around April 10th? Well he's pitched in 3 games so far. I thought they said he was being sent to AAA to actually...you know...pitch often. But hey, what do I know? Anyways, so far he's pitched 4.1 innings, with a 3.5 GB:FB ratio, and 4 K's. Awesome, right? Oops, he's still walking every other batter - he now has 5 BB to go along with his 4 K's.

My solution - Brandon obviously can't see the catcher - he needs new prescription glasses! Duh! Get on it, Brandon!

As for last nights game, it's obvious this team can't string together a rally. Here's a reason why, look at the hitters batting sixth to second - Barajas, Zaun, Diaz, Inglett, Eckstein, Stewart.

Yeah, that's really gonna get'er done. We're lucky if we get 2 of those guys on base within the same game. Now, look at the players occupying those spots a week from now:

Rolen, Overbay, Zaun, Lind, Eckstein, Hill.

Now, you can argue about the order of them, but it's pretty clear that those guys are gonna be in that general area of the lineup. Notice how at least 4 of them can hit for power, and all of them have average to above average on base capabilities? They need Rolen & Lind up ASAP - might as well let Rolen adjust in the MLB, cause his replacements aren't doing any better.

But at least with that lineup, there are zero auto outs, which will allow this team to create...and I know this is a foreign concept for the Jays....A RALLY.

The pitchers aren't stupid either. They know the offense isn't getting it done, and I'd bet that they're pressuring themselves to throw a perfect game everytime out, cause let's be honest, we're gonna need one every time out just to have a shot in any game. With Rolen & Lind up here, who make the lineup deeper and allow the team to actually string some hits together, there's a chance that the Jays might score a few runs. And if they do that, I guarantee the pitching will improve knowing that they can allow a run or two (but thats all!) and still have a shot to get a W at the end of the day.

Twitchy.

Random Observations

That was a pretty sweet win the Jays just pulled off - a 10-2 bitchslap of the defending champion Red Sox. I know we're only five games into the season, but I thought I'd do a little recap of what the Jays have done well and what they need to improve on:

• Eckstein - First the good - he's growing on me. That scrappy little slide in the first was nice, and it's really night and day the difference between a league average guy like Eck, and the wanna be shortstops we've had the last couple of years. The defense is solid, better than I expected. But the biggest impact is on offense. He keeps the line moving, and that's so important to this team. He'll sacrifice himself, and he does a good job of getting on base. Part of the reason our offense has improved this year is simply because the SS isn't an auto-out anymore. It just makes the lineup deeper, and as you've seen so far we've had a couple of rallies that went through most of the lineup. It's early, but that signing is looking terrific at this point. He's exactly as advertised. I'm really liking that approach with two strikes, where he's just trying to get the bat on the ball.

• Eckstein - the bad. Not really his fault, but I'm surprised in a game like todays, or close games in the past couple of days Gibby hasn't gone with J-Mac at SS. I think this could be a problem down the line in close games. Gibbons finally has a real SS, and he's a bit reluctant to take him out of a close game - maybe he's afraid of hurting his ego, but if Eck's the team player everybody says he is he shouldn't be pissed about Mac coming in to play as a defensive specialist. Definetly something to keep tabs on.

• Manufacturing runs - I'm no fan of smallball, but I love what the offense has been doing so far. They're moving over runners, they're stealing, they're putting a ton of pressure on the defense. I don't expect the Jays to keep up this pace of stealing, but it's nice to see in the absence of Rolen that the Jays are doing everything to score runs. I'm positive this has to do with new hitting coach Denbo, and if I'm right then he's already worth whatever they paid him.
• Base running - The Jays are being extremely aggressive on the base paths. And while it doesn't show up in the boxscore, the Jays have been doing a great job at going from first to third. They're pushing the envelope, and when you do that you force the other team to make a play they normally wouldn't make if you didn't try for the extra base. And when you do that, the other team is more likely to make a bad throw, allowing you to take an extra base.
  
• Scutaro - I'd heard good things about him, but so far he's been extremely impressive. A very under appreciated trade at the time, Scutaro has been terrific both with the bat & the glove. It gives me a lot of confidence knowing he can give the infielders a day off, and there won't be a huge drop in production. When Rolen comes back, he's going to be a huge help coming off the bench. But as of now, he's done a terrific job at third.
  
• Rolen - This team is doing so well, and the amazing thing is it's without one of the best players on the team. This team is rolling along (last time I do that, I promise) without him, and the Jays should be deeper and even better when he returns.
• I'm surprised League hasn't pitched yet, but that's moreso cause the starting 5 has been incredible. This team is kicking in on all cylinders, and it seems like for the first time in years we have both hitting and pitching at the same time.
  

I think it's a pretty incredible feat that at worst the Jays will end up 3-3 after starting the season against the Yanks & Boston, and 4-2 at best. To me though, the biggest test comes after the series against the Sox. The Jays have done a great job against the Yanks & Sox the past couple of years, but they always seemed to play to the level of their competition when they played other games. What'll prove to me that this team is a true contender is if they bring this intensity to other games, and if they play to their potential rather than their competition. The Oakland and Texas series' should be a good test on whether or not the Jays are able to continue to play at an elite level.

Twitchy.

The Morning Round-Up

I almost sprayed a moutful of coffee all over the monitor this morning when I saw the headline "Toronto Return Eyed By Josh" in the Boston Herald. This was a nearly tragic over-reaction, of course, since this Beantown paper was referring to one Josh Beckett as I was soon to discover.

But to me there's one Josh that stands at the head of the queue: Josh Towers, the Original Shit Leopard (tm). That Josh has just been placed on waivers by the Rockies, who have chosen to go with fellow shitballer and general bringer of bad mojo, Mark Redman, as their fifth starter. JT will probably end up sloshing around the minors for a few weeks or months before reemerging somewhere (San Diego?), as shit leopards tend to do.

I reiterate: Josh Towers is NOT coming back to Toronto.

Blair checks in on the injured Scotty Rolen and there's good and bad in the tea leaves. His doctor (and Blair) figure he won't be back playing until May, but Rolen himself is hinting at a much earlier return to game action:

"In 14 days, we'll take the pin out and we'll move on," Rolen said. "Dr. Graham seemed to think it would be a bigger problem throwing [than hitting] because the middle finger would be the last finger the ball would leave. The first four or five days after rehab, he's talking about picking up a bat to see how it feels. At the three-week point or more [after surgery], he thinks I should be ready to pick up a ball and see how it feels.

"He gave a four to six-week window from the time of surgery. Hopefully, we can be optimistic and cut it down the right way, the smart way. I don't want to be throwing my finger across the diamond."

Cathal Kelly sees him returning April 21 at home against the Tigers at the earliest (Wilner says the 25th), which makes me somewhat sheepish of my earlier boasts that he'd be back by the 15th... Note to self: expunge all Scott Rolen records from the archives.

Matt Stairs did his minor league tune-up yesterday and it appears that his hip woes will not force him to miss Opening Day. Don't be surprised, however, when he ends up playing less at the expense of Shannon Stewart in the early going. And maybe the middle going, too.

Brad Arnsberg is talking of an April 11 return for the Beej. This is, as always, not set in stone. But still, cautious enthusiasm.

Rance Mulliniks and Will are on the same page: these Jays are serious contenders. Chris Zelkovich of the Star also notes that Sportsnet's ratings for Jays games were down 19% last year. Ouch, perhaps that's some explanation as to why Uncle Ted has seemed like a gold-hoarding troll in regards to a payroll hike this offseason.

TV notes: the Jays-Phillies exhibition game at Chase tonight is indeed on TV and The Season: '08 Jays is on Sunday night at 7:30. Both on Sportsnet.

The painful wait until real games start is down to its final three days...

ELSEWHERE:

* Bosox RF JD "Nancy" Drew, who missed the entire season opening series in Tokyo due to tightness in his lower back, is still in discomfort but aims to be ready for real games next week. We'll see. Last year Bosox GM Theo Epstein invested $70 million (5 years) in Drew and $36 million (4 years) on Julio Lugo. Both sucked intensely last year and it's a pretty safe bet that neither will play up to his salary in '08.

-- Johnny Was

Say what?

I was checking out ESPN's site as I always do in the morning, when I found some potentially disturbing Jays news:

Rumor has it that although the Jays haven't yet made it official, they also will leave A.J. Burnett and Shaun Marcum back when the team returns north for the season. Burnett suffered a torn fingernail this spring and Marcum is recovering from knee surgery. Both still need more work to get ready for the season. No word yet on whether either of them will miss a start, but be prepared for it to happen, just in case.

What the fuck? I realize it's just a rumour, but why is this, in some random ESPN fantasy baseball news article, the first I'm hearing that Marcum & AJ may not come up with the club? You know, that's probably the first clue that these guys don't know what they're talking about. My bet is that this is some bullshit article because the fantasy experts are worried that Marcum may not be a good pick because he had knee surgery last year, and not because Marcum may actually spend time on the DL.

But just to cover my bases, in case they actually are right - the Jays wouldn't need a fifth starter (Litsch becoming the fourth) until April 10th or 12, so if it's a minor thing it's not the end of the world. But if this goes longer, our SP becomes a bit of a liability. Banks, Parrish, Wolfe...the internal options aren't great at this point.

I don't expect AJ to miss his start, and after re-reading the article I don't expect Marcum to miss much time. Quite frankly, ESPN should stick to letting these guys make up the rumours around here.

So yeah, I don't actually expect this to happen, but I figured since nobody brought this up it was worth pointing out.

The ESPN article also brings up some other Jays news, specifically on the health of Rolen & Ryan. With Rolen, it's the same ole two weeks and pain tolerance stuff. Oh boo hoo Rolen, it's just a nail and a fractured finger. Get over it. I have wrist tendonitis but you don't see me issuing a press conference getting someone else to cry on my behalf. Hell, I've been blogging for over 2-3 weeks with this damn thing and it hurts like a bitch to type. If I can do my job, you can still do yours. Suck it up.

Here's what they say about Ryan though:

Ricciardi also said injured reliever B.J. Ryan is out until "at least mid-April, in the best-case scenario" because of pain in his surgically repaired left (throwing) arm. The Jays intend to keep him in Florida as the team heads north to begin the season. Ryan is throwing on the side and "making strides," according to Ricciardi. Look for the Jays to be cautious with him, and even mid-April sounds optimistic to me.

Nothing really new here, shouldn't be back till mid-April. I still don't see him coming back till May at the earliest.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Colour me baffled by Sportsnet's decision not to air this morning's Bosox-A's season opener from Tokyo in Ontario while it was on the network's West and Pacific channels. If I was willing to get up at 6 a.m. for it there must've been others who'd have preferred the game to a half dozen-odd consecutive repeats of last night's Sportsnet Connected, right?

No, a tape-delayed version of the game is not on later today at a more reasonable hour. The Hockey Team That Shall Not Be Named is playing the Bruins tonight and there are as always hundreds of thousands of morons out there who constantly set themselves up to have their hopes dashed across rocks. Sportsnet does have a nice little 1-4 p.m. block this afternoon that it's filled with the following: FIS SBX World Cup Lake Placid, USA (skiing? figure skating? darts?), Drive-Thru Europe (some sort of car driving event?), and best of all, Best Damn Sports Show 2008. At least I know what the latter is: a clip show that just couldn't wait for a dead spot in the sched.

I was actually planning on being a bit angry about this until I realized that I have as yet to inform mlb.tv that I was not renewing my subscription this year. They sent me an email last week to let me know that they'd taken the liberty of assuming that I would and have billed my credit card appropriately. At the very least, I can go back to watching three games at once while only being moderately distracted from the work I'm supposed to be doing. Haha, fellas, well played; I guess I have to let it slide now.

Incidentally, tomorrow's Bosox-A's finale in Japan is on Sportsnet Ontario at 7 p.m. There you have it, a bone has been thrown to the baseball-starved masses of central Canada.

Things are looking neither grim nor rosy for recently injured third bagger, Scott Rolen. Cathal Kelly reports that he's had surgery to have a screw inserted in the banged up middle finger on this throwing hand and a second visit to the doc to have it removed is scheduled for two week's time. The bad news is that he will not be playing in any capacity until this thing comes out, but the good news is that his return thereafter will be determined by his pain tolerance level. We all know it's high, so expect him to come back raring to go.

So confident am I that this will be a short-term injury that I told my buddy Jay that I'd eat the January 2008 copy of Diplomatic History currently sitting on my desk if Rolen wasn't back playing by April 15.

With Rolen set to miss at least the first six games of the season (3 game sets against the Yankees and Bosox), Marco Scutaro will fill in as the regular 3B in his absence. It seemed to quite a few of us that he'd become redudant with the acquisition of David Eckstein, forcing J-Mac back into a backup infield role. Kelly reports that JP now seems more than a little pleased with himself with the move:

Asked if the loss of the team's biggest off-season acquisition is a major blow to the new campaign, Ricciardi answered quickly.

"No, we've got (utilityman Marco) Scutaro. Our bench is as deep as it's ever been. A major blow would be if we lost someone of that calibre for the year."

I will concede that one. A week's worth of ABs to Scutaro is definitely not the same as a week's worth of ABs to the three-headed suck monster of Howie Clark, Hector Luna, and Russ Adams.

Blair is in mid-season grumpy form today. Why?

* if Rolen could at least DH we could deny ABs to Frank Thomas and help keep him from reaching the 376 plate appearances he needs for his $10 million 2009 option to kick in
* he's skeptical that Rolen's return could come as soon as fortnight from now; the loss of Rolen means a huge hit both offensively and defensively
* he's skeptical that AJ Burnett is capable of change/showing maturity
* Casey Janssen
* BJ Ryan's forearm soreness means he will be held back until mid-April at the earliest
* The Big Hurt has looked awful at the dish this spring and is probably going to fall of a cliff this year
* there are a bunch of no-name retreads vying for the final bullpen spot or two

I certainly don't disagree that there have been a considerable number of unfortunate developments in recent weeks, but I think making the assessment, which Blair seems on the verge of doing, that our "ship has sunk" is highly premature.

Some counterpoints:

* Overbay, Wells and Zaun are all healthy and seem poised to rebound from awful years
* Shaun Marcum is mixing in a sinker, which might well prove to be a weapon that helps him cut back on the long ball, his achilles heel
* Burnett is throwing his curveball again after the fingernail incident
* we still have the solid Jeremy Accardo to close until BJ comes back
* Brandon League is back in 2006 form
* Jesse Litsch is showing growth as a starter
* for good or ill, the LF log jam has now been solved and Adam Lind's place will be adequately held warm for the next few months
* we still do have depth at pretty much every position and guys like Scutaro or Barajas won't embarass you if they're needed for any length of time

As much as I do like Blair's work (and the sense of humour that shines through in the Globe's baseball blog) I think it's fair to point out that he has a tendency to make the most pessimistic of assumptions on most occasions. I know he's not employed to be a cheerleader for the club, but still...

I can't speak for my co-writers, but I'm fully prepared for another third place finish this year. That said, I do accept that things just might break well enough for this group to sneak into the playoffs. It's a longshot, a real longshot. I know.

In a more positive development, the Star is reporting that Alex Rios is "on the verge" of signing a 6-year, $65 million extension. Yes, I will be dancing naked in the streets when that happens.

ELSEWHERE:

* JD "Nancy" Drew is injured already, Josh Beckett goes on the DL and Andy Pettitte is looking extremely unlikely to make his first start. Teehee.

* Is Jason Bay more excited about the 2009 World Baseball Classic that his upcoming season with the Pirates? I'm going say yes.

-- Johnny Was

Spring Training Notes

It's always nice to see players rebound after an injury. Spring training can be an indication of whether or not a player has successfully recovered from said injury. Unless they're doing poorly, in which case spring training is meaningless....

Lyle Overbay is off to a wicked start. In 35 AB he's hitting 371/436/514, and he's been one of the most dangerous bats to date for the Jays (that's not saying much though...). The biggest thing for me, is that out of his 13 hits, 5 are doubles. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but if he's hitting a ton of doubles, it's a great sign.

Scott Rolen's another player coming off an injury plauged season. While I refused to believe him when he claimed his shoulder was better, the numbers speak for themselves. In 26 AB, he's hitting 346/469/615. The significant thing for me is out of his 9 hits, he's hit 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So it's not like he's getting cheap little hits, he's crushing the ball. And he's showing some nice plate discipline with 5 BB to 5 K's.

Following the Stewart-Johnson debate, nobody has pulled away or proven they deserve a spot. Johnson is hitting 265/316/324, while Stew is hitting 222/323/407. Stew has performed better to date, but I wish I could find some RHP/LHP splits. Stew does have 4 BB to 0 K, whereas Johnson has 0 BB and 4K. He's not doing much to disprove his critics, and unless he makes significant strides the Jays are likely to non-tender him. A shame, cause I'm thinking this one could bite us in the ass.

Everyone seems to be talking about how scrappy Eckstein is, but nobody is talking about how crappy Eckstein has been. He's hitting 161/278/323 so far. He hasn't struck out, and he's got a good OBP differential from his BA, but it's not a good start. Yes, I know it's spring training, but nobody seems to be talking about Eckstein's stats, so I thought it was worth bringing up...

Aaron Hill has been one of the best players to date. He's hitting 429/500/536. The slugging isn't the number that should get your attention - it's the OBP. Opposing pitchers would try to intentionally walk Hill and he'd swing at the pitch. But he's walked a couple times, and that's a good sign going forward. If he walks more in the regular season, he'll have a shot at being in the top tier of 2B in the league.

Wells hasn't been hitting so well, but he's a slow starter. Again, it's only spring training, but you have to be a little worried that Wells is only hitting 257/278/400. He's hitting for very little power, and he's not hitting for average. Knowing he's a slow starter, coming off major surgery, the Jays should bat him at the bottom of the order until he shows he's recovered and productive. They should ease him back in, rather than push him to be the best offensive player on the team. Coming off major surgery, the only thing I want him tearing is the cover off the ball when he launches it into the stands.

As for the pitching, I'm not going to focus on the ERA. The main thing is that guys like Accardo, McGowan, Doc, Litsch & Marcum have solid K:BB rates. I am somewhat concerned about AJ's 5:6 K:BB ratio, but it is spring training and he's without his curveball. Speaking of which, the season starts in a week and a half an AJ still hasn't thrown the curve. I'm extremely paranoid, so I think this is something worth monitoring.

Twitchy.

A Most Random and Useless Fact

This is how we dirt bag it, yo!

Jayson Stark provides us with this little factoid in a profile of new Jays Scott Rolen and David Eckstein:

Here they are, about to become the first two infielders to transplant themselves into some other team's infield, within two years of starting at least 80 games for a World Series champion, since Bill White and Dick Groat went from the Cardinals to the Phillies in 1966.

Sorry, what? Really? What?

Stark does score points for correctly noting that Canada is north of the border, though he fails to mention that it is also east of the border for Alaskans. Guess that slipped by the fact checkers, eh?

The article mostly rehashes Scott Rolen's difficulties with jerktacular managers in Philly and St. Louis. This is old ground for us here so I won't bother to go over it again.

What is sort of interesting is the latter bits on David Eckstein's contract talks. Many assumed that Eckstein's camp held out for too many years and too many dollars, costing him a far better deal that the one year $4.5 million contract JP gave him. Eckstein refutes this notion:

A year ago, he seemed to be heading toward an extension that would have kept him in St. Louis through 2010. But negotiations kept dragging. And dragging. And dragging right through spring training -- until Eckstein pulled the plug. Pulled it because "I did not want to be that guy looking for a contract" when he was supposed to be playing baseball.

He keeps hearing he could have signed there for three years and $21 million, one fewer year and 15 million fewer dollars than he was looking for. But Eckstein insists: "I'll tell you to this day I made the right decision. If you knew a little more of the inside -- I'm keeping that to myself -- but all I'll say is, I definitely made the right decision."

From the beginning, he says, he had no problem accepting the consequences of shutting down those negotiations, whatever that meant on pay day, and wherever that led him on game day. So he's not second-guessing anything, he says. Nor is he buying into the popular notion that he could have been the Mets' second baseman right now. Did the Mets have interest? Absolutely. But they went into the winter with the obvious intention of bringing back Luis Castillo. And ultimately, they did. In the end, no matter how close they seemingly were to signing Eckstein instead, he says "I can tell you this right now, they got the guy they wanted."

Interesting. In any event, Stark seems to believe that a change of scenery might do both men some good in 2008. That's exactly the kind of note you want to wrap up a feel-good article on, kids.

Stay scrappy, fellas.

-- Johnny Was