Trading Places

David Eckstein is off to Arizona, in return the Jays get Chad Beck. He's a 6'4" 23 year old RHP who spent most of the season in the California league (High-A, the equivalent of Dunedin) and is in his second professional season. The Jays drafted him out of high school (!) in 2004 but didn't sign him so he's been on their radar awhile. Looking at his stat page on MiLB.com, one notes that he handled lefties well, has very good ratios, and had a season of three excellent months and one very bad month. Observe the ERA and OBA pattern:

May - 1.46 - .222
June - 2.12 - .183
July - 8.36 - 3.33
August - 2.39 - .182

Which of these is not like the other?

If you look at the GO/AO ratio, you get a good lead on why. Beck gave up 5 HR in July and 3 the rest of the season. It's an easy guess he got bad location for a few games and elevated his pitches and got rocked for it.

Considering that a lot of Jays fans were saying "send us a bag of balls for him", I'd call this an impressive return. Let's see how much praise the Hated One gets for it.

~WillRain

Deal, or no deal?

According to Ken Rosenthal, there's now a two-team competition for David Ecksien - the Arizona Diamondbacks want him to start at 2B (the Angels have been negotiating with the Jays for a reserve IF).

This can only be good news for the Jays because the winning team will have to give a bit more than they would have without competition. In theory, the Jays could deal two of their infielders but no one is suggesting that will happen.

There's really no way to speculate on the return. But the guy we are reportedly getting from Stairs (Fabio Castro) has some decent promise, albeit he's tiny and has control issues. Expect something similar for Eckstien.

Nice comeback win for the Jays today, the interesting thing is that for a big part of the season when you tune in and see the Jays are down 6-2 you move on to other activities. Not so much lately.
Tidbits of the Game:

* Wells hit his 15th HR, driving in 2 and drawing a walk. check this out-
Wells has played 54 games now, since May 1. In that time his line is prety damned impressive.
.319
.353
.545
.898

And if you take the counting stats x3 (since 54 games is 1/3 of a season)...
39-3-33-129

If we can ever just get him to do that for 162 games on a regular basis.

*Newest Jay Jose Batista finally got off the snide, going 2/4 and driving in runners in both cases, including the tying run of the game. Hopefully the pressure will be off some now.

~WillRain

Deadline Drama

Nothing to report Blue Jays-wise so far in the final hours before the deadline, so it's going to be a long, lonely 4000-calorie breakfast for Mr Gregg Zaun this a.m. as he sweats out what might be his last day in Toronto.

The Oracle aptly pointed out in his blog yesterday that those two consecutive losses to the Rays that but the Jays squarely back at .500 might be enough to induce JP to reconsider the untouchable label he's put on AJ Burnett. But, as you're no doubt aware, JP has yet to pull off a single major deadline in his entire time in the captain's chair, though he's an expert at doing the minor ones that clear off superfluous veterans to cut costs. I'm figuring nothing big gets done, though Eckstein should get moved--because there's more cash saved there than by dumping Zaun and Eck is most clearly redundant--if anyone is willing to take him.

The Yankees pulled off the big deal of the day yesterday afternoon by acquiring Pudge Rodriguez from the Tigers to fill the hole vacated by Jorge Posada, who's off for season-ending surgery, for nothing more than the extremely-tight-pants-wearing reliever Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth is a shit-baller plain and simple whatever his recent numbers might tell you, so the Yankees really gave up nothing of long-term value.

Pudge hates walking more than the terrorists hate our freedom, but he's still a better than average hitting catcher and brings a reputation as a strong (if no longer elite) defender. And a bonus did-you-know: should he stay healthy and average about 140 hits over each of the next 3 seasons, Pudge will be the first catcher to record 3000 hits. He's a slam dunk Hall of Famer, fellas.

I'm highly skeptical that this last-minute three-way deal that would send Jason Bay to the Bosox, Manny Ramirez to the Marlins and a bunch of prospects to the Pirates gets done. It's been left too late in the day and all parties are astute bargainers with no real need to get something wrapped up quickly/sloppily or suffer the consequences. It would be a real gut shot seeing one of my favourite players in the game patrolling left field at Fenway, but should something happen here at least we know that Manny is assuredly a free agent at the end of the year as that $20 million club option gets ripped up by the cheapo Marlins. Lemons into lemonade...

One of the more curious acquisitions was the Chisox trade for Ken Griffey Jr. that's being finalized as we speak. Paul Konerko has been hurt or playing hurt and bringing Griffey on board means Nick Swisher can play first with Jr. taking over in centre, but the Chisox have the 4th best offense in the AL and probably could've made due with a cheaper glove man who can play proper defense. And it's not like Griffey's been much with stick this year either despite playing in one of the best hitter's park in the game. Go figure.

Jeff Blair is a bit grumpy about the timing of the Jays call-up of Canucker Scott Richmond, which presumably dashes Canada's hopes of baseball gold (ok, more likely a long shot run at bronze) at the Olympics.

Olympic baseball? I can't recall ever having found a game on television in past years; do Asian baseball countries like Japan and South Korea even release their best players for the tournament? While it would be thrilling to pitch in front of a few hundred confused Chinamen in Beijing later next month, baseball has never had a proper international "best on best" tournament that pretty much every other sport on earth does. The World Baseball Classic has attempted to fill that void, but has made too many compromises to really satisfy the hunger of fans who know how a World Cup is really supposed to work. That's not JP's fault and it's got nothing to do with Scott Richmond, so there's no need to get your panties in a bunch.

And seriously, if you're so myopic that you think anything to do with the Canadian contingent is one of the more intriguing story lines of an Olympics set in the heart of a heinous communist dictatorship engaged in cultural genocide against its long-suffering Tibetan and Uigher populations, then I really don't know what to say to you. No, I'd say something really biting and witty, like donate your loonie to RBC to support Canada's Olympic athletes and feel good about your contribution to international goodwill and harmony, you're part of the solution!

Sorry to get a bit off topic there... check back in later this afternoon for a recap of the day's (in)action.

-- Johnny Was

Keep Hope Alive!!

Ok, well, yeah. I admit, it will take a miracle...or maybe not a miracle but a highly unlikely set of circumstances. Still, I can't divorce myself from the willingness to believe in magic. I mean, when does it get better than Scott Richmond's story, right? Sure, he might get pounded a few times and become a footnote in history, but maybe - just maybe - the Hollywood screenplay is only in Act II.

How Disney would it be if Richmond steps into the rotation and takes up the mantle of the injured Golden Boy and helps shoulder this team through a resurgent stretch run that puts the hated Yankees and the upstart Rays in the rear view?

So, the question niggles at the edges of your mind..."buyers or sellers?" Why not take a page from Billy Beane and do both? I present here, for your consideration, three deals which, were they to be completed, would both shuffle off some excess and add key components. They are based on two different reports from MLBTR and I take no responsibility if the rumors are false.

#1 Trade David Eckstein. I'm not really so much worried about where, but I have to wonder if maybe the Cardinals would be that adverse to having him back, the Dodgers took a look, Baltimore is reportedly still asking about shortstops in return for Sherrill, the Mets had the idea of playing him at 2B before signing Castillo. The point is...the man ought to have a chance to start somewhere if he can. He's been a good soldier here and did what was asked of him professionally. If Cito isn't going to play him, then get something in return. I presume you get a B list prospect for him.

#2 the Marlins were reported to be willing to discuss Cody Ross for an upgrade. The Marlins desperately need a good catcher and are interested in bullpen help. so I propose this:

Gregg Zaun or Rod Barajas and Jason Frasor and Cuban prospect Kenny Rodriguez (or someone of similar value) for Colby Ross. Ross mashes lefties (and 1.008 OPS over the previous three years in 176 ABs) and is competent (better than Wilkerson et al) against righties. As a platoon mate for Stairs, he could be a great addition for a low cost. I make this suggestion with the acknowledgment that if you could make the same deal for McPherson you'd have to do that too, but I'm holding back on assuming he's available.

#3 This is the trickiest one. There have been some reports that the White Sox and Orlando Cabrera are not getting along. Now, OC isn't the hitter he was a few years ago, in fact his OPS this year is little different than Scutaro's. But he's a much better defender, and he's considerably faster on the bases. Reportedly the White Sox have kicked around the idea of acquiring a 2B and moving Alexi Ramirez to SS. Now, assuming that they do not find a deal for Brian Roberts or someone, how about trading Scutaro (or Eckstein if they are willing to try him at 2B or even SS) and a throw in someone like Thigpen for Cabrera?

This depends, of course, on how much the Sox are really interested in getting OC out of town, but if they recognize that his value is relatively low and don't get stupid and ask for Cecil or somebody, we might be able to do some good here.

Marginal upgrades, to be sure, but with the return of Wells, the emergence of Lind, the reawakening of Rios, and the coming reawakening of Rolen, it just might be enough.

IF the rotation can come through.

~WillRain

What to do?

Well, even the faintest of hopes for a resurrected season bit the dust in Seattle and even I am forced to concede that this season, one I was convinced was a return to the glory days, has inexplicably and unexplainably veered so throughly into the ditch that to continue to harbor hope is an exercise in masochism. Yes, it's possible we could play .650 ball from now to the end of the season and win 90 games. But I can't work up the passion to hope for it. That being the case, it's time to turn our thoughts to the second most fun activity in baseball - trade speculation.

I have always held the opinion that once you know you are out of it, it's time to think about what next year's roster is going to look like and sell off anyone who has value who is not a part of that vision. This has been, for me, the most frustrating part of the JP-era Jays is that between their summer-long tease and JP's passionate hopefulness, every July we are caught in a no-man's land on the fringe of contention where he can't bring himself to act.

I hope very much that in this, his probable last summer with that opportunity, he manages to cash in and bring us some value in return. Presented here, then, for your reading pleasure, is an attempt at an omnibus review of the market, the chips the Jays have to offer, and what potential return might be worth speculating about. Hopefully it will be comprehensible by the time I am done pulling together what is, in many ways, a very fluid set of circumstances.

Presumed sellers (a group which may grow): Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, San Diego, Colorado, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Washington.

Presumed buyers (a group which may shrink): Boston, NY (both teams), Tampa Bay, Chicago (both teams), LA (both teams) Arizona, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta.

Mushy middle (either because of standing or money): Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Texas, Florida.

On the Jays' roster, I think we can agree that for various reasons, Wells, Rios, Hill, Lind, Halladay, McGowan, and Marcum are not going anywhere. Rolen and Ryan would take pretty huge offers, I think, but might be moved. Most everyone else on the major league roster could at least be talked about (though not to say none of them would have an important role in 2009).

But that said, for my money, here are the most obvious players that might be moved and my take on their situation.

1. Barajas and/or Zaun: I list this first before AJ because it seems to me there's an obvious deal here. It is widely reported that the Marlins are looking for a catcher. If I'm the GM, I don't rest until I sell them on taking one of these guys for Dallas McPhearson. Even if I have to add a John Parrish or some such to the deal to make them happy, to me it is beyond obvious that this needs to happen. True McPhearson has an injury plagued and inconsistent history and true, his numbers are in the hitter-friendly PCL but even so, as a cheap possibility at DH (to guard against injury), 1B, or even 3B if an irresistible Rolen deal comes along, I don't see how we can pass up the opportunity to generate our own version of what Carlos Pena did in Tampa last year or Milton Bradley in Texas.

I would try to make a deal for one of these guys now (give the Marlins their choice) and, if Robinson Diaz recovers in time float the other one later. Other teams who might be interested in a catcher include Boston and Oakland.

2. AJ Burnett: Please, all you droolers out there with your knee-jerk AJ bashing, just control your bowels on this one. Even in this, admittedly his worst year, he's only had four truly awful starts in 18 and that over against 11 very good ones. Any contender in need is going to see value in that. Of course, no one is going to move until CC Sabathia lands, but the persistent rumor is that may happen even before his next start.

Before we address what teams and what they have, lets be clear about this - once CC is off the market, Burnett is either the best or second best remaining available starter (depending on whether or not Bedard is actually available). given that the M's HAVE to redeem the package they sent to Baltimore, they will be asking a ton and that should make AJ the more desirable target, even with his baggage and current inconsistency. So don't listen to what the obsessed tell you, once Sabathia is dealt Burnett moves to center-stage.

As for potential landing places, let's get this off the table - if Milwaukee is indeed offering LaPorta in a deal for CC it's almost inconceivable to me that they won't get him...but on the off chance I'm wrong about that, I think we can all agree that trying to leverage LaPorta for AJ would be our first priority. so my remarks flow from the presumption that Milwaukee got Sabathia and the other buyers are left to compete for the scraps.

It has been said that the Jays would prefer a shortstop and it is clear that over the coming years (3-4) it is their area of greatest need. It has also been rightly observed that there is very little in the way of a match among established players. Someone suggested that if the Brewers fail on CC, that the Jays express interest in JJ Hardy and there is some merit there, but on the whole it can be safely stated that if we acquired a SS, it would be a guy who's in the high minors. So let's look at the remaining contenders and see what is out there:

Boston - I can't see why they would be anxious to win AJ but Lowrie would certainly be a great return.

NYY - There's not really a good match here, certainly no SS to be coveted. I can't see them being a factor for AJ.

Tampa Bay - It would be kind of odd, I think, for the Rays to make a play for Burnett but certainly if they did you have to try to get Reid Brigiac from them. He's not having the best year in the minors but he is widely considered to be a prime prospect.

Chicago WS - I don't think the White Sox are in the market for much and leat of all a pitcher.
LA Angels - This is not a team that needs a SP.

Arizona - SS Reynaldo Navarro was listed #9 on Baseball America's pre-season rankings.

LA Dodgers - You can't speculate about young Dodger's shortstops without starting with young Taiwanese Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers are said to actually be looking for a veteran SS. I don't know what the team is thinking in not giving Hu the job, but if he's available he's the one to ask.

St. Louis - The Cards have a SS prospect in Pete Kozma but he's not real close and they don't have the luxury of trading him, even though they, like Baltimore, enjoy the advantage of being a team that AJ might not opt out on if they give him a little signing bonus. Earlier in the season, some speculated that major league outfielder Chris Duncan might be available. If so, one could do worse.

Chicago Cubs - Obviously, if you are dealing with the Cubs you have to covet 3B Josh Vitters. Lefty SPs Rich Hill and Sean Marshall are also desirable but there's no SS to be found.

Milwaukee - Beyond the names already mentioned, AA wunderkind Alicdes Escobar is the obvious choice. A SS with great defense and a ridiculous OBP is something that would solve a lot of problems.

Philadelphia - Jason Donald, a SS in AA for the Phillies is not a high profile prospect but the 23 year old is hitting quite well in Reading. I’ve no idea how good his fielding is.

Atlanta - Brent Lillibridge would have been the obvious answer a year ago, but he's struggling this season.

NY Mets - Having cleaned out their best prospects to get Santana, I don't look for them to be a major player.

One might also make note of Baltimore, since they are one of two teams Burnett might opt to stay with, but they are not likely to match the offers of some of the higher profile contenders.


3. David Eckstein - Rumor has it the Dodgers want a veteran to take up the slack of the injured Rafael Furcal (and why they are afraid to use Hu I do not know) and Baltimore is said to be mulling the idea. I hesitate to speculate on what Eck might bring because, frankly, anything with any upside is a deal you make. i don't hate the man but he is a player of limited value.

4. Brian Tallet - I've heard Wilner say on occasion that the market for RP is marginal, but the rumor mills insist that pitchers like Ron Mahay are drawing a lot of interest as a lot of contenders are short on LHRP. I know that the Brewers have only one quality lefty in the pen, ditto the Rangers, Cardinals, Phillies, A's, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Marlins, Tigers, Cubs, O's and D'Backs.

Far be it for me to speculate on the return from such a large group, but notice how often the possibility exists for us to pad a Burnett deal in order to maximize our return.

5. Lyle Overbay - this one is somewhat predicated on the idea of acquiring some other good young hitter which makes it wise to clear Overbay out of the way. I include it mostly because there are a lot of Overbay-bashers out there. The problem is, none of the contenders are hurting for what Overbay brings to the table. I don't see a deal.

6. Jason Frasor - On the one hand, RHRP has been a minor weakness in our staff, but on the other, one can easily project League, Accardo, Wolfe and Janssen into 2009 and beyond and Frasor is likely to be gone before next season anyway. Some teams, like the Yankees, stand in great enough need that even a local whipping boy like Frasor has some value.

7. Matt Stairs - some have speculated about the Dodgers but I don’t see a team who needs him bad enough to gamble on having him there next year. I don’t see a deal.

8. Jesse Litsch - trading AJ makes it more problematic to deal Litsch even under the rubric of “sell high” but give the lack of quality SP on the market and the number of contenders in need, it’d be foolish to not listen to offers if you could get some.

9. Brad Wilkerson/Shannon Stewart - don’t fool yourself, Stewart has no value because even a team that wants him knows we have no room. Wilkerson might have the most very marginal of value....as in you might get a little case for him but nothing of interest to a fan.

~WillRain

The Roundup

(Sad voice): 'Topes lose. Topes lose...

I suppose luck can run in your favour for only so long and "lustily" booing Eric Hinske has little effect on The Dude's one-man wrecking crew act against his former team. And all of this compounded by the fact that we're now down two shortstops for God knows how long.

Eckstein came out in the 5th with what we expect to be some minor hip discomfort and then J-Mac went down with a nasty ankle injury after catching his cleat on a seam in the field turf in the 6th. The Oracle was talking postgame like a 15-day DL stint is the best case scenario (it's never good when a player can't walk off the field under his own power) and 60 days is entirely possible.

Cruel mistress fate bitch slaps everyone who wanted to see more of J-Mac as a defensive replacement.

Marco Scutaro will be greedily licking his chops as he is the most likely recipent of playing time at short until Eckstein is well enough to play again. I'd figure that Joe Inglett gets called up for a bench slot as J-Mac's replacement, but won't see a minute of PT on the infield. The Oracle expects to see Jorge Velandia instead because the dude is a natural shortstop, has been chugging at AAA, and has some ML experience. Since there are no official updates as of yet, rampant speculation is pretty much all I've got for you at this point. Stay tuned.

I don't mean to be glib, but these injuries will likely have little short-term effect on the club's overall performance. Shortstop had been the NL pitcher's slot in the lineup as Eck and J-Mac combined for an anemic .231/.309/.306 line. Mac wasn't even being used for defensive purposes until the end of the White Sox series. We had only been getting average D from Eck, which is what you can reasonably expect from Scooter as a short-term injury replacement. It sucks losing J-Mac for a prolonged length of time, but his is a loss we can weather. If we start banging out 10 hits a game (as we did last night for only the third time since April 20), the Ws will come regardless of who's Scotty Rolen's left hand man.

Checking on the injury, Griff cites some disgruntlement from Eckstein on the planned loss of an inning or two of PT per night under Gibby's new shortstop rota, but one must take all things he writes with a grain of salt/disbelief.

It's Marcum-Garza tonight in game 2 as the Jays seek to win the series and leave town squared away at .500.

ELSEWHERE:

* If New Yorkers are incapable of accepting the fact that Joba Chamberlain will occasionally surrender a run or two, they're certainly not going to like what they see of him as a starter. Why, he might surrender as many as 3 runs over the course of a 7 inning start! How can this be? How can this be???

* Another reason to dislike A-Rod. Daddy, how did you meet mom? Well, darling:

“I scouted her out for a month,” he said. “I wanted to see her routine, and I wanted to see what time she came in, see how consistent she was. And sure enough, she was like a machine. She would come in right after work, and get on the treadmill and do her abs. And finally, I build enough courage after about 3 1/2 weeks. And I said, ‘I know you are going to go do some abs after. And do you mind if I join you?”

How romantic!

* Straight from the Aruban Penal League to the Texas Rangers, the ghost of Sidney Ponson throws his second straight quality start in a 10-1 laugher over the Mariners. Every time Ponson's name comes up Jay K. mentions something about picturing him drunk on a jetski punching out judges. Now THAT is a ballplayer, folks.

-- Johnny Was

They figured it out!

Alright, so I'm still pissed that Gibbons and crew decided that Lind shouldn't start, though Stewart did have a pretty good game. Part of it was the fact that Nick Swisher isn't a real CF, and misplayed everything hit to him, but I'll give Stew credit for hustling and getting some key hits.

On that note, and not to steal Johnny's roundup - I couldn't resist this early bit of good news from the blue jays official site:

McDonald's move from the bench to short was to serve as a late-inning defensive replacement for David Eckstein. Gibbons had been reluctant to use McDonald instead of Eckstein in the late innings of close games this season, but that has suddenly changed.

"He may be the best defensive shortstop in the game," Gibbons said about McDonald. "If he was just very good, we probably wouldn't do it, but with what he can do out there -- take away runs -- it's the right thing to do.

"By no means is it a reflection on the other guy."

I gotta say, I'm pretty proud of Gibbons for changing his mind. A week ago on Jays Talk, JP said this wasn't going to happen. So it sounds like Gibbons found his Cahones, and is planning on using McDonald as a defensive replacement. Earlier I wrote a letter to JP explaining how important this was, so I'm feeling pretty ballin now that Gibbons has come to his senses and plans on using McDonald in the later innings.

Mac's the best defensive SS in the game, and when we have a lead he's the most important guy on the field. This next part is from the original Blue Jays article:

Also on Monday, Gibbons moved Eckstein down into the lineup's ninth slot -- a switch that seems to play into the new line of thinking. If McDonald enters late in a game, he can slide into the No. 9 spot, where he typically hits in the order. Gibbons said making the mid-game switch might depend on how soon Eckstein is due to bat.

"It depends on where Eck is in the lineup," Gibbons said. "If he's still coming to the plate, we probably won't [play McDonald] until the ninth. If he's out of the way, we may do it in the eighth. Who knows?"

So there's no chance they'll do it when Eck has a potential AB left, but for the most part they'll bring him in when they have a lead, as they should. Can't be too angry with that, but in a one run game starting in the 7th inning or later, I think Mac's defensive value is greater than Eck's offensive output. But it's pretty hard to complain about them realizing how stupid it was to use him as a pinch runner...

When we had big Frank here," said Gibbons, referring to Frank Thomas, who was released by the club on April 20, "we also needed pinch runners -- one guy for him and another guy for maybe the catcher. Now, we don't really need that as much."

I don't know about you guys, but this quote just cracked me up. The Jays didn't spend 3 million dollars to make McDonald a pinch runner - and if they did, why didn't they trade or sign someone who's sole purpose is to steal bases and run really fast? I guess this means from now on that Lind or Scutaro are going to be pinch runners in the future (my bet's on Lind being the primary PR). I think that's an excellent use of Lind's service time. You know, he'll learn how to run around the bases, which is pretty important to know. I bet he's forgotten how to do that since he hasn't really been on base much in his last 20 plate appearances. So guaranteeing him a chance to be on the bases by having him pinch run for Zaun instead of watching him fail by trying to get on via a hit will allow him to continue his development by running around the bases, an extremely important skill. It makes so much sense now why we should let Stewart go 0-4 in LF while providing equally shitty defense!

Wow, I totally lost my train of thought after that...so yeah, great move to bring in McDonald, and I'm still pretty pissed that the Jays gave up on Lind after 20 AB. That would have been like giving up on McGowan last year after 2 starts. And I mean, giving McGowan an opportunity to figure it out on the major league level didn't pay off in the long run....

No wonder Lind pressures himself so much. They claim that he has the starting job, and they'll be behind him whatever they do. But when he doesn't hit 367 or whatever it was when he was in AAA, they put him on the bench and essentially tell him "we have no faith in you, kid". It took McGowan till his 5th start to start producing (the fourth being the famed May 23 start where Zaun & Gibbons called him out for not using the Curve), and there was no talk of taking McGowan out, bad as he was. Even if there was, it was foolish, because it was obvious the kid just needed to adjust. So why are we taking Lind out of games before he has a chance to prove himself? It took McGowan essentially from his May 3rd start to his May 28th start before we had any results - it took Lind from April 26th to May 4th to determine that Lind is useless. But I'm sure playing 2 games in a row followed by an offday over a week and a half is enough time to prove oneself in the majors.

Twitchy.

An open letter to JP Ricciardi

Dear Mr. Ricciardi,

I am a loyal Jays fan, who wants nothing more than a competitive team, one which has a shot at playing October baseball, and not the one game that results of bad scheduling on the part of MLB. So as a fan I was hanging on to every word you said last night on the Fan 590, until you dropped this line which absolutely crushed me.

Last night, you said something to the effect of "David Eckstein is a better player over 162 games, and will hold up better than McDonald. He's a better SS (Eckstein), and he'll be in games during the later innings because of this".

There are a couple of issues I have with this statement, so I'll just throw them all out there, in the hopes that you will rectify the situation.

First off all, over the past 2 years Eckstein has started 112 and 119 games. So he's not exactly a symbol of health or durability. Which is all the more reason to give him more rest, especially when we're winning and have a defensive caddy in McDonald.

Remember in 05/06 when Cat was the LF, and we'd bring in Johnson for defense? Or even replacing Adams or all the other hacks at SS with John McDonald? Why won't you do that now? It's essentially the same situation with McDonald replacing Eckstein for defensive purposes. I know last night you said "Eckstein is a better player", but that's irrelevant to the fact that in the 7-8-9 innings, with a lead, that defense plays a bigger role in the game. With shortstop being the most critical defensive position in the game, it is a criminal misuse of an asset to leave McDonald out of those games.

That's not entirely true - you did approve of him being used as a pinch runner for Stairs. However, this was also a big mistake, one I'm disappointed you defended. You see, Stewart was on the bench too, and he would have made a much better pinch runner. Had the game continued, he would also have been a bigger threat than McDonald with the bat, in the DH role.

The other issue is that with McDonald out, and only Stewart left on the bench, if someone had gotten injured at catcher, or in the infield, Stewart would have had to fill in. Stewart cannot play these positions, and would have led to us losing the game even sooner. However, McDonald can be an emergency catcher, a key point with Zaun out and Barajas in as his replacement. He could also play any position on the IF, and play an adequate LF if neccessary. So it was a poor move by Gibbons to do this, and a worse choice for you to defend it.

Again, it is critical that McDonald plays SS in close and late situations. As you're well aware, this team struggles when it is close and late. In a close and late situation the two most important roles are played by the bullpen and the defense. The bullpen is doing pretty well, so the problem must logically be the defense. Your reponse was that "Not having McDonald in hasn't hurt us yet", but I don't believe that's the case. Earlier in the year, during an AJ Burnett start, Eckstein made a key fielding error which led to a loss. Had John McDonald been in, it's pretty safe to say that play is made cleanly, and we have a chance to win the game. In addition, over the past two days it's highly likely McDonald would have stopped, or gotten an out on balls hit up the middle that led to walk off hits by the Red Sox. Maybe he doesn't get an out, but he keeps the ball in the infield, something that Eckstein failed too do.

By putting in McDonald, you ensure that more outs are created with less pitches, which also protects the pitchers from being "burnt out" later on in the year. Every additional hit means 3-5 extra pitches have to be thrown per hitter, and it adds up over both a game and a long season.

If my anecdotes do not persuade you, maybe this will: David Eckstein has a zone rating of 882 this year - while that's second in the majors for qualifying SS, it is well below John McDonald's ZR of 941.

I understand you don't want to hurt Eckstein's feelings by bringing in McDonald during the later stages of the game. I hear that. But you and the media have tirelessly argued Eckstein is a team player - willing to do whatever he can to help the team win. Well, the team would be in a better position to win games if John McDonald is playing in the later stages of the game, such as the 7-8-9 innings when the Jays are winning, or in a tie ball game. For example, if Eckstein bats in the top of the 7th, he's highly unlikely to bat until the 10th inning. So you can essentially ignore the offensive contributions, and focus solely on the defensive contributions.

In addition to having significantly greater range and mobility to both his right and his left, John McDonald possesses an incredibly strong and accurate arm. He is a much smarter, and quite frankly a better defender. In a critical situation, McDonald is the most important player on this team because of his defensive abilities. To not have McDonald at SS in the later innings runs contrary to your arguments that you want to not only put the best team on the field (literally), but it also goes against your arguments of giving the team the best opportunity to win.

In addition to this, McDonald is actually a better hitter vs left handed pitching, so combined with his defensive advantage it would be wise to essentially platoon McDonald & Eckstein. Again, I know it'll hurt Eckstein's pride, but if he's the team player you say it is, he won't have a problem with it.

In closing, I want to thank you for reading this Mr. Riccardi. I feel that it would be in the best interests of the team to use McDonald in his proper role. You payed him around 3.8 million dollars to be a defensive specialist - not a pinch runner. Eckstein will understand that a defensive specialist should be brought in when defense, and not offense, is more important. The next time this team is winning a close game, I hope that John McDonald will be there at SS to ensure the victory.

Twitchy.

Wow

The title really says it all about Carlson. I know Johnny touched on him last night, but damn. That was extremely impressive what he did getting out of that bases loaded jam. Isn't that the second, or third time he's gotten out of a bases loaded situation without giving up a run? I know it's a small sample size and all, and he could implode and prove why he's been a minor leaguer for so long, but I'm very intrigued by Carlson's peformance to date. If he can keep this up, it can pretty much negate the injury to Janssen.

The biggest thing to me that validates Carlson's performance was getting guys out in the 13th, after they'd seen him already once in the game. They knew what to expect, and he still got guys out. To me, that seems to imply that he could be for real, and could be somewhere between Tallet & Downs long term. Or he'll prove why I shouldn't blog about minor leaguers after a ridiculously impressive outting against a poor hitting team. Either way...

Should I be worried about Scott Downs? 5 BB in 7 innings, giving him a 1:1 K:BB rate. I'm a huge supporter of Downs, and I know it's a small sample size. But I'm worried that if he doesn't get his control at least back to 07 levels, the set-up situation will go from terrific to bad in a hurry. Sure doesn't help that Accardo's doing horrible either. Good thing we got Carlson here pretending to be BJ Ryan of 06...

Eckstein is performing around career levels, and so far I have to say I'm unimpressed. His lack of ability to get the ball out of the infield is really pissing me off. That being said - could part of his problem be due to the fact he isn't used to seeing these pitchers? He's been in the NL for a while, so it's possible the reason he hasn't been very successful is the fact he isn't used to seeing these AL pitchers. Even I think Eck's slugging should be higher than it is, which leads me to believe that when he sees these pitchers a second time around he should be more like the leadoff guy we expected. Right now, he just seems to get on base by taking pitches or getting hit by them.

Switching Gears

Rotowire has some very cool news about how some of the Jays did in the minors the last few days:

Low Single-A Lansing's Justin Jackson went 4-for-5 with a triple and a double on Wednesday.

The 19-year-old Jackson is batting .311/.446/.511 with five steals in six tries. This after the 2007 supplemental first-round hit just .187 in Rookie ball last year. A toolsy shortstop, he went into the season as one of the Jays' most intriguing prospects anyway.

This is great news considering the revolving door the Jays have had at SS for what seems like forever. I loved the Jackson pick, thought it was an absolute steal. He's supposedly a stud defensively and the question's always been his bat. I think he can be an above average SS, and it's nice to see he's successful in stealing (5/6 successful SB). The batting line is impressive, but what I like the most is the 130 point difference between OBP and BA. Not only does it suggest he's got good bat speed, and makes good contact, but he has a good eye and can work a walk.

Kyle Ginley fanned 10 in 6 2/3 scoreless innings Tuesday for low Single-A Lansing.

Ginley wasn't quite as impressive as hoped at Lansing in his first full season last year, but with a 1.53 ERA and a 21/3 K/BB in 17 2/3 innings so far this year, he's off to a great start as a repeater. The Jays could push him up to high-A ball within a month or two. He might have a future as a fourth or fifth starter.

I don't know much about Ginley, but that's a pretty dominant performance. Add in a 21:3 K:BB ratio and I'm sold.

Twitchy.

Random Observations

That was a pretty sweet win the Jays just pulled off - a 10-2 bitchslap of the defending champion Red Sox. I know we're only five games into the season, but I thought I'd do a little recap of what the Jays have done well and what they need to improve on:

• Eckstein - First the good - he's growing on me. That scrappy little slide in the first was nice, and it's really night and day the difference between a league average guy like Eck, and the wanna be shortstops we've had the last couple of years. The defense is solid, better than I expected. But the biggest impact is on offense. He keeps the line moving, and that's so important to this team. He'll sacrifice himself, and he does a good job of getting on base. Part of the reason our offense has improved this year is simply because the SS isn't an auto-out anymore. It just makes the lineup deeper, and as you've seen so far we've had a couple of rallies that went through most of the lineup. It's early, but that signing is looking terrific at this point. He's exactly as advertised. I'm really liking that approach with two strikes, where he's just trying to get the bat on the ball.

• Eckstein - the bad. Not really his fault, but I'm surprised in a game like todays, or close games in the past couple of days Gibby hasn't gone with J-Mac at SS. I think this could be a problem down the line in close games. Gibbons finally has a real SS, and he's a bit reluctant to take him out of a close game - maybe he's afraid of hurting his ego, but if Eck's the team player everybody says he is he shouldn't be pissed about Mac coming in to play as a defensive specialist. Definetly something to keep tabs on.

• Manufacturing runs - I'm no fan of smallball, but I love what the offense has been doing so far. They're moving over runners, they're stealing, they're putting a ton of pressure on the defense. I don't expect the Jays to keep up this pace of stealing, but it's nice to see in the absence of Rolen that the Jays are doing everything to score runs. I'm positive this has to do with new hitting coach Denbo, and if I'm right then he's already worth whatever they paid him.
• Base running - The Jays are being extremely aggressive on the base paths. And while it doesn't show up in the boxscore, the Jays have been doing a great job at going from first to third. They're pushing the envelope, and when you do that you force the other team to make a play they normally wouldn't make if you didn't try for the extra base. And when you do that, the other team is more likely to make a bad throw, allowing you to take an extra base.
  
• Scutaro - I'd heard good things about him, but so far he's been extremely impressive. A very under appreciated trade at the time, Scutaro has been terrific both with the bat & the glove. It gives me a lot of confidence knowing he can give the infielders a day off, and there won't be a huge drop in production. When Rolen comes back, he's going to be a huge help coming off the bench. But as of now, he's done a terrific job at third.
  
• Rolen - This team is doing so well, and the amazing thing is it's without one of the best players on the team. This team is rolling along (last time I do that, I promise) without him, and the Jays should be deeper and even better when he returns.
• I'm surprised League hasn't pitched yet, but that's moreso cause the starting 5 has been incredible. This team is kicking in on all cylinders, and it seems like for the first time in years we have both hitting and pitching at the same time.
  

I think it's a pretty incredible feat that at worst the Jays will end up 3-3 after starting the season against the Yanks & Boston, and 4-2 at best. To me though, the biggest test comes after the series against the Sox. The Jays have done a great job against the Yanks & Sox the past couple of years, but they always seemed to play to the level of their competition when they played other games. What'll prove to me that this team is a true contender is if they bring this intensity to other games, and if they play to their potential rather than their competition. The Oakland and Texas series' should be a good test on whether or not the Jays are able to continue to play at an elite level.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Nice win yesterday, if accomplished by means of good ball-playing rather than scrappiness. J-Mac sat on the bench despite torrid numbers off of Yankees starter Mike Mussina and a pretty solid track record in Yankee Stadium, but perhaps tonight's your night, little guy (too bad we could've used you more yesterday). But that's cool, too; David Eckstein is helping out in his own way by selflessly helping fill the team quota for grounded into doubleplays.

Oh, and can we jettison the LAA Angels approach to base stealing now, please? It was funny on Tuesday, but we can't send Scutaro every time he reaches first. Can we?

Speaking of whom, Marco "Polo" Scutaro is going in for X-rays today after being being hit in the left hand in the 8th by Ross Ohlendorf. He stayed in the game after the beaning and played defense in the ninth, so no one is dropping the I-bomb quite yet. Matt Stairs, however, is possibly on his way to the DL; Sandler at the Post says he's ready to play tonight or he's injured, no more mucking about.

Dustin "Mr. Burns" McGowan is apparently good to go for tonight after battling flu-like symptoms (code for a really horrorshow dump) that confined him to the team hotel last night. I wouldn't have minded seeing him flipped with Shaun Marcum so folks like me could see him live at tomorrow's home opener, but still, good news is good news.

(Why do I do the nickname thing? Even I find it annoying. Must stop. Now.)

You might think that we look like a bunch of silly dicks for suggesting that V-Dub gets dropped from the cleanup hole to 5th or 6th after what was a pretty impressive night at the dish (3 for 4 with a homer). Not so fast. Wilner notes that V-Dub was pull happy to the extreme, more disappointing since he had made progress in using the entire field in spring training. It's hard to argue with a homer and a couple more hits for good measure , but we stand by our earlier position that he is not the best option hitting fourth against righties over a full season.

This is another point Wilner made on JaysTalk last night that bears repeating (plagarizing) in full:

... [Re:] the fact that David Eckstein made the last outs of the 9th and came back out for defense in the bottom of the inning. Had John McDonald been sent into the game there, to help protect a three-run lead, he wouldn’t have had to bat until the 11th or 12th had the Yankees come back to tie. The only reason not to use McDonald there (unless he’s sick or hurt and we haven’t been told) is to not insult Eckstein, or to not make Eckstein think the Jays lack confidence in his glove. That’s a losing game to play. Eckstein is a big boy, and he knows full well that McDonald is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. I don’t think he’d be hurt by being replaced for defense late in close games - though even if he would be, I don’t care - everyone understands that the win is the most important thing. And if the win is the most important thing, John McDonald must play shortstop late in close games in which the Blue Jays lead.

Indeed.

For his part, Blair doesn't think you win too many more games over the Yankees making as many mistakes as the Jays did last night. Fair enough.

Before leaving last night's game behind, I note that we here have long been fans of tall, weird-looking lefty Brian Tallet, who was absolutely brilliant. I almost want to dig deep and spend the $10 to sponsor his page over at baseball-reference.com, but then my conscious tells me that I could better use that money on one extra overpriced Rogers Centre beer this weekend. Sorry, Tallet, it was a popularity contest you could never hope to win.

Interesting but not shocking tidbit: speaking to Bastian in regards to McG potentially being bumped, JP says the club will likely look first look internally (Tallet, Randy David Wells) for spot starters when injuries arise, and then to Purcey, Romero and Cecil (in that order). That's pretty much what we figured; Purcey's really got nothing but himself standing in the way of a big league gig at some point this summer.

McGowan-Hughes tonight at 7:05 on TSN in a battle of future aces. Rack up some Antibalas, Tribe Called Quest and the Roots, pour a vodka tonic, then sit back and enjoy.

-- Johnny Was

Spring Training Notes

It's always nice to see players rebound after an injury. Spring training can be an indication of whether or not a player has successfully recovered from said injury. Unless they're doing poorly, in which case spring training is meaningless....

Lyle Overbay is off to a wicked start. In 35 AB he's hitting 371/436/514, and he's been one of the most dangerous bats to date for the Jays (that's not saying much though...). The biggest thing for me, is that out of his 13 hits, 5 are doubles. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but if he's hitting a ton of doubles, it's a great sign.

Scott Rolen's another player coming off an injury plauged season. While I refused to believe him when he claimed his shoulder was better, the numbers speak for themselves. In 26 AB, he's hitting 346/469/615. The significant thing for me is out of his 9 hits, he's hit 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So it's not like he's getting cheap little hits, he's crushing the ball. And he's showing some nice plate discipline with 5 BB to 5 K's.

Following the Stewart-Johnson debate, nobody has pulled away or proven they deserve a spot. Johnson is hitting 265/316/324, while Stew is hitting 222/323/407. Stew has performed better to date, but I wish I could find some RHP/LHP splits. Stew does have 4 BB to 0 K, whereas Johnson has 0 BB and 4K. He's not doing much to disprove his critics, and unless he makes significant strides the Jays are likely to non-tender him. A shame, cause I'm thinking this one could bite us in the ass.

Everyone seems to be talking about how scrappy Eckstein is, but nobody is talking about how crappy Eckstein has been. He's hitting 161/278/323 so far. He hasn't struck out, and he's got a good OBP differential from his BA, but it's not a good start. Yes, I know it's spring training, but nobody seems to be talking about Eckstein's stats, so I thought it was worth bringing up...

Aaron Hill has been one of the best players to date. He's hitting 429/500/536. The slugging isn't the number that should get your attention - it's the OBP. Opposing pitchers would try to intentionally walk Hill and he'd swing at the pitch. But he's walked a couple times, and that's a good sign going forward. If he walks more in the regular season, he'll have a shot at being in the top tier of 2B in the league.

Wells hasn't been hitting so well, but he's a slow starter. Again, it's only spring training, but you have to be a little worried that Wells is only hitting 257/278/400. He's hitting for very little power, and he's not hitting for average. Knowing he's a slow starter, coming off major surgery, the Jays should bat him at the bottom of the order until he shows he's recovered and productive. They should ease him back in, rather than push him to be the best offensive player on the team. Coming off major surgery, the only thing I want him tearing is the cover off the ball when he launches it into the stands.

As for the pitching, I'm not going to focus on the ERA. The main thing is that guys like Accardo, McGowan, Doc, Litsch & Marcum have solid K:BB rates. I am somewhat concerned about AJ's 5:6 K:BB ratio, but it is spring training and he's without his curveball. Speaking of which, the season starts in a week and a half an AJ still hasn't thrown the curve. I'm extremely paranoid, so I think this is something worth monitoring.

Twitchy.

The Scrappy Analysis

First off, I want to apologize to everyone. Lately I've been doing a lot of "reporting", and that's not really what I'm here to do. Johnny does a great job of it, but it's not really my forte. My strength here is in analyzing stuff. Crunch the numbers, go off on random tangents, and see where it leads me. It's when I do that, that I'm on top of my game.


So with that in mind, I thought I'd take a deeper look at the scrappiest, most dirtbaggiest player we have. Buckle your seat belts boys and girls, we're gonna find out all of David Eckstein's deepest, darkest secrets!

What we do know about Eckstein to date is that he's a slightly below average SS, both at fielding and offensively. Eckstein is a middle of the road SS in terms of ZR, so he'll be an upgrade over Clayton but an obvious downgrade over J-Mac. Offensively, he's got a career 89 OPS+ and last year he was at 93 with a batting line of 309/356/382.

This isn't really news to anybody. Eckstein's always been overrated by media and fans alike. Calling him a good hitter is being generous at this point, because he's below league average. He is a perfect fit for the Jays though, who need a hitter who can simply get on base against RHP. It's no secret the Blue Birds struggled against RHP last year. Last year we were 27th in the majors with a 715 OPS against RHP - the biggest problems were an inability to hit RHP (248 BA) and get on base as a result (315 OBP). Eckstein's strengths are BA and OBP, specifically against RHP. It's really a match made in heaven.

What is interesting, however, is that during the offseason many writers often suggested the Jays did not make a significant offensive upgrade. That couldn't be further from the truth, and here's why. Last season, Jays SS, be it Ray Olmedo, J-Mac, Clayton, or anybody else who logged time at SS combined to...hit...to the tune of a 598 OPS. That OPS was dead last in the majors, just behind Boston. For all we made fun of Lugo and the Red Sox SS's, they were .035 points better than us, with a 633 OPS at SS.

Now, if we use last season's base of how David Eckstein will perform, he'll have a 738 OPS. Even if he only plays 120-130 games, that's an incredible upgrade. In fact, compared to last year's SS, it'll be an upgrade of .140 points of OPS.

That sounds like a lot, doesn't it? Well, think of it this way...

Remember how much Wells sucked last year? Remember how Awesome Rios was last year? Last year Wells had a 706 OPS, and Rios had an 852 OPS. You know what the difference between these two guys were in terms of OPS last year? .146 is the difference.

I'll give you guys a sec for that to sink in....

Imagine if we were able to clone Rios last year, and replace Vernon Wells with Alex Rios. We essentially did that at SS, where we replaced the Vernon Wells of SS (Mac) with Alex Rios (Eckstein). It's really night and day.

A ton of Jays fans/bloggers, including some of us here wanted to get Jason Bay. Assuming we somehow got him, the upgrade between our combined LF in 07 (741 OPS...that's for anyone who played in LF, not just Stairs/Johnson) and Jason Bay's career #'s (890 OPS) would have been a .150 OPS difference.

In other words, adding David Eckstein to SS is nearly identical to adding Jason Bay pre-07 to play LF for us. No, Eckstein isn't going to suddenly start hitting HR or anything. But our SS position was so bad, that having a league average guy like Eckstein makes it seem like a tremendous upgrade. We would have given up tons of prospects, and millions of dollars for a LF of his quality (assuming we had the money of course). And yet for 4.5 million, we essentially got the same kind of upgrade in our lineup. They won't provide the same production, but the value you're getting, from upgrading a player is proportionately at the same.

When you look at the Eckstein signing this way, it is without a doubt the single best offseason move JP has done. Often times during the offseason, we were told that NY, Boston & the Jays didn't really make any big improvements, and for the most parts were just standing pat. What I'm hoping is that people start realizing that we didn't stand pat, and that out of the three teams listed, you can make the argument the Jays made the most improvements to their starting 9 during the offseason.

Alright, so now that I've proved that Eckstein is a huge addition, how can we maximize his value?

We know Eckstein's coming off an injured season, and considering how valuable he is to the club, we need to keep him rested. Also, we know that his defense is less than spectacular. So what needs to happen to keep him rested and healthy throughout the year?

The obvious answer to this is to have McDonald come in more often and play defense when we're winning. The other thing that Gibbons can do, is make a straight platoon between Eck & Mac.

I'm probably getting a lot of WTF stares at the screen, so I better act fast....here are their 3 year splits vs LHP

McDonald - 697 OPS
Eck -706 OPS

There really isn't any noticeable difference between McDonald or Eckstein, when they're facing a Southpaw. Mac shows he can take the occasional walk against LHP (283/333). Eck would probably be better if he hit for higher average against LHP, as his walk rates and I'd bet ISO would be higher than Mac. That being said, for a difference of .009 OPS, there is really no reason to stop Eck/Mac from going into a straight platoon to start the season. We lose a negligible amount of offense against lefties, which the Jays already kill to date. But the defensive upgrade from Eck to McDonald is sizeable enough that you do gain value starting McDonald against LHP.

I really hope I actually covered some new stuff, and didn't rehash the same old "scrappy" and "team player" ideas that have been circulating the media. Beyond that, I'm just hoping that people can appreciate how bad the SS position was, and that Eckstein is potentially a bigger upgrade than a healthy Rolen in this lineup (proportionately to their positions previously held by Jays, anyways).

Twitchy.

A Most Random and Useless Fact

This is how we dirt bag it, yo!

Jayson Stark provides us with this little factoid in a profile of new Jays Scott Rolen and David Eckstein:

Here they are, about to become the first two infielders to transplant themselves into some other team's infield, within two years of starting at least 80 games for a World Series champion, since Bill White and Dick Groat went from the Cardinals to the Phillies in 1966.

Sorry, what? Really? What?

Stark does score points for correctly noting that Canada is north of the border, though he fails to mention that it is also east of the border for Alaskans. Guess that slipped by the fact checkers, eh?

The article mostly rehashes Scott Rolen's difficulties with jerktacular managers in Philly and St. Louis. This is old ground for us here so I won't bother to go over it again.

What is sort of interesting is the latter bits on David Eckstein's contract talks. Many assumed that Eckstein's camp held out for too many years and too many dollars, costing him a far better deal that the one year $4.5 million contract JP gave him. Eckstein refutes this notion:

A year ago, he seemed to be heading toward an extension that would have kept him in St. Louis through 2010. But negotiations kept dragging. And dragging. And dragging right through spring training -- until Eckstein pulled the plug. Pulled it because "I did not want to be that guy looking for a contract" when he was supposed to be playing baseball.

He keeps hearing he could have signed there for three years and $21 million, one fewer year and 15 million fewer dollars than he was looking for. But Eckstein insists: "I'll tell you to this day I made the right decision. If you knew a little more of the inside -- I'm keeping that to myself -- but all I'll say is, I definitely made the right decision."

From the beginning, he says, he had no problem accepting the consequences of shutting down those negotiations, whatever that meant on pay day, and wherever that led him on game day. So he's not second-guessing anything, he says. Nor is he buying into the popular notion that he could have been the Mets' second baseman right now. Did the Mets have interest? Absolutely. But they went into the winter with the obvious intention of bringing back Luis Castillo. And ultimately, they did. In the end, no matter how close they seemingly were to signing Eckstein instead, he says "I can tell you this right now, they got the guy they wanted."

Interesting. In any event, Stark seems to believe that a change of scenery might do both men some good in 2008. That's exactly the kind of note you want to wrap up a feel-good article on, kids.

Stay scrappy, fellas.

-- Johnny Was