Why it matters who signs AJ

I know that readers of this blog are, from the feedback we get, well informed fans. But I notice that not all baseball fans who voice their opinion on-line are so well informed. One of the examples of this I note from time to time is the occasional reference to where AJ will sign and what difference it will make to us (for instance, "I hope he signs with the Yankees and then breaks down like Pavano did")

So I thought I'd do a small educational moment here and walk through, for those who don't know, why it matters where AJ signs.

The conditions which prevail are these:
1. A team which finished with one of the 15 worst records CANNOT lose their first round pick
2. If a team signs more than one Type A player who was offered arbitration, the first round pick goes to the team with the higher ranked player.
3. Three players ranked higher than AJ in the Elias rankings - CC Sabathia, Mark Texeria, and Manny Ramirez.
4. Six teams have been mentioned prominently as potential destinations: the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, and Braves

Now, with that said, here's the draft order - with the blank numbers being compensation sandwich picks for free agents signed. This is an estimate on my part because some undetermined amount of the offered players will re-sign with their former team. I have assumed here that 15 of the 24 offered players change teams. That may of course not be accurate.

Protected First-Round Picks
1. Nationals (59-102)
2. Mariners (61-101)
3. Padres (63-99)
4. Pirates (67-95)
5. Orioles (68-93)
6. Giants (72-90)
7. Braves (72-90)
8. Reds (74-88)
9. Tigers (74-88)
10. Nationals (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies (74-88)
12. Royals (75-87)
13. Athletics (75-86)
14. Rangers (79-83)
15. Indians (81-81)
16. Diamondbacks (82-80)
Unprotected First-Round Picks
17. Dodgers (84-78)
18. Marlins (84-77)
19. Cardinals (86-76)
20. Blue Jays (86-76)
21. Mariners (compensaton for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Joshua Fields)
22. Astros (86-75)
23. Twins (88-75)
24. White Sox (89-74)
25. Mets (89-73)
26. Yankees (89-73)
27. Brewers (90-72)
28. Phillies (92-70)
29. Yankees (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
30. Red Sox (95-67)
31. Rays (97-65)
32. Cubs (97-64)
33. Angels (100-62)
34.
35.
36.
37. Sandwich pick for AJ
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49. Nationals
50. Mariners
51. Padres
52. Pirates
53. Orioles
54. Giants
55. Braves
56. Reds
57. Tigers
58. Rockies
59. Royals
60. Athletics
61. Rangers
62. Indians
63. Diamondbacks
64. Dodgers
65. Marlins
66. Cardinals
67. Blue Jays
68. Astros
69. Twins
70. White Sox
71. Mets
72. Yankees
73. Brewers
74. Phillies
75. Red Sox

Now, watch what happens - Because the Nat's, O's and Braves finished in the top 15 picks, they would lose a second round pick regardless. So if one of those three signed him our picks would fall like this:
Nats: 20 - 37 - 49 - 67
O's: 20 - 37 - 53 - 67
Braves: 20 - 37 - 55 - 87

Whereas, if AJ was signed by the Yankkes, Phillies, or Red Sox - and the signing team did not sign CC, Tex, or Manny - then the picks would be:

Yankees: 20 - 26 - 37 - 67
Phillies: 20 - 28 - 37 - 67
Red Sox: 20 - 30 - 37 - 67

So, we can see right away that we have a vested interest in where AJ signs. This is further compounded by the legitimate possibility that the Yankees would sign both AJ and one of the players ranked higher than him. In that unfortunate circumstance our picks would become:
20 - 37 - 67 - 72
The worst possible outcome for our draft prospects (well, technically the Red Sox could sign both AJ and Tex but Lowe is such a natural fit there and has such an interest that I discount that as a real possibility).

MLBTR is reporting a story that the Braves are ready to meet AJ's five-year demand. This is bad news, from where I sit. I'm rooting for the Phillies to step up to the plate and match the offer. Seeing as how I prefer the 28th pick to the 55th.

Stay tuned.

~WillRain

Going, going, Gone!

It's official, AJ's used his opt out.

You know, it's funny that we're so quick to blame AJ for having a good year in his contract year. We all made fun of him in some way because it's only the second time he pitched 200 + innings - both times in contract years. And rightly so, as it's too much of a coincidence for my liking. But as of 2007, AJ was a type B free agent, which would have meant we only got a supplemental draft pick for him. Fast forward to 2008, and the Jays are in line to get a first rounder and a supplemental pick cause Elias pegged him as an "A" free agent. In the end the widely panned opt out was mutually beneficial. I guess it's better to be lucky than good...

This is, assuming he doesn't re sign with the Jays (which, is pretty unlikely).

Bets on how many innings he pitches in 2009? I'm putting him at 155 2/3.

Twitchy.

First of many pointless AJ Burnett updates

So great is its sense of entitlement that Yankeesdom is already anticipating the arrival of AJ Burnett before he's even opted out of his contact with the Jays. We knew the drama was going to start soon, but mercifully it shouldn't drag on too long if Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker, is to be believed.

Like many of you, I will be kind of sad to see AJ go and would like to be able to cheer him on for whatever organization he signs on with next (please let it be the Braves). As much schaudenfraude as I'd get from seeing him sign a mega deal with the Yankees and then break down a la Carl Pavano, let's hope we don't have to cheer for that scenario.

Remember that most of us hoped that Ted Lilly would stick around at the end of 2006 despite his punch-up with Gibbons and expected the 2007 rotation to be weak as a kitten without him. Making a fearless prediction here and now that we'll come through this stronger in the end after AJ leaves, all things considered.

-- Johnny Was

Sometimes you make me want to say so long...

I'm not quite yet prepared to offer my comments on the weekend series that effectively ended the Jays season, so let us make do with a MLBTR report (via Jerry Howarth at The Fan) that Brad Arnsberg figures AJ Burnett WILL re-sign with the Jays. Not resign like Richard Nixon, but re-sign.

Commence total plagarization NOW:

Arnsberg's heart says Burnett will stay in Toronto. Burnett's wife loves it there. Arnsberg had multiple heart-to-heart conversations with Burnett discussing the pitcher's future, and leans toward Burnett returning. Arnsberg speculates that it could take another year on the contract to bring him back.

If this is indeed true, it would put JP/JP's successor in a very difficult position because an offer from the AJ camp to have him stay in exchange for a third year would be rather magnanimous considering what he could get from scoundrel Hank Steinbrenner on the open market. That said, I don't necessarily think it's a good idea to reach an agreement on those terms.

Prefacing the following with this:

* AJ is a very talented pitcher who has been superb this month with the team on the fringes of a playoff race
* the Jays will be worse off without him unless they find a replacement outside the organization, and there really isn't a free agent equivilant available in his price range
* I like him as a personality on a team that's otherwise pretty square (looking at you, Lyle Overbay)

Ok, now...

Remembering the maxim that you don't pay a player for the season he just had, it's worth noting that with his next start AJ will almost certainly establish a career high for innings pitched after already posting his best single-season strikeout and win totals. As much as I hate saying it, this was after all only the second fully healthy season (both contract years) of his career. You just can't bank on getting anything like this from AJ ever again.

While his overall numbers this year are very good, but there was a considerable degree of Jeckyl and Hyde-ism: he had two horrid months (April and June), one mediocre one (August), two solid ones (May and July), and it looks like he's on his way to a superhuman September. Every time I hear someone say they saw signs of maturity in AJ this year I kind of wonder what he might've done out of the gate had he not wrecked his fingernail in his car door after what I've always assumed was an offseason temper tantrum.

I really, truly want to see the good, but can't overlook the bad.

Back in February I had a look at AJ's most similar pitchers at baseball-reference and found a depressing list of once-promising power pitchers who flamed out spectacularly in their early 30s (AJ will be 32 going into next season). I'd reckon mightily that whichever team chooses to lock him up through his ages 35/36 seasons is going to see very little--if any--return on their investment towards the end of the deal.

Could AJ help the Jays in '09? Most likely yes, but not so much that a team with limited resources should run the risk of locking him up long-term. At some point in the coming weeks we're going to do a comprehensive, omnibus look at what we think the Jays should do going forward, but I'm coming to the opinion that JP/JP's successor needs to make a big splash this off season (a la 2005/2006) or just batten down the hatches and wait for an infusion of youth (Arencibia, Campbell, Cecil most notably) in 2010.

I'm gonna have to say punt on AJ now, keep those tasty draft picks, and try to patch up the rotation next year with a a cheap one-year turd blossom. (The Oracle likes Carl Pavano, who has pitched very Scott Richmond-ily since coming back from an assortment of faked injuries in August.) But no, I won't celebrate the news if this is what ultimately ends up happening.

-- Johnny Was

Looming

Lotsa stuff looming. The Rays are looming at the RC tonight and it'd be nice to finally solve that puzzle. McGowan's surgery is looming which directly impacts....

The looming trade deadline.

Call me crazy (many do!) but I think that even if JP were deceiving us about the possibility of AJ being traded, he dares not move him (short of a gross overpayment) until he finds out what they see Thursday inside McG's shoulder. IF it's a minor clean-up and he's certifiably good to go next spring it's one thing, IF they decide to repair his rotator cuff that's a 50/50 shot at not just a missed 2009 put a permanent trashing of a seemingly promising career. In the latter case, it is in the Jays best interest to cut a check for $4 or $5 million to AJ to buy that pesky option and ink him into next year's rotation.

I know, cue the tragic Greek chorus.

But the reality is that AJ at 12 per is as good or better buy than anyone else who is even remotely comparable to hm on the FA market, and none of those will sign for a mere 2 years either. CC Sabathia, Oliver Perez, John Garland, Kyle Loshe, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets....all will get as much or more money and/or more years this winter than AJ (and that's not to say that AJ on the free market would be any cheaper than what we are paying him - he wouldn't).

That said, I echo today's sentiment from the Inebriated - get the yard sale started. If you know you are going to pick up Barajas' option for next year and let Zaun walk, then deal him (one report said the Marlins would deal Cody Ross and that their injured catcher suffered a setback...let's get talking about that situation); Tallet has kicked away his chance to go to a contender but Frasor is a guy who, given our depth, is a non-tender candidate this winter....get something out of him, he's not doing anything Wolfe can't do. Stairs? It's only one million next year but if you are going to have to spend for pitching (i.e. AJ or a replacement) then clear the deals you can; Eckstein? Obviously. I have nothing against these guys - like all four actually. But if Gaston isn't going to use Zaunie or Eck, then he's not...move them. At least those two.

BTW, some are saying the Olympic deadline is Friday so if Richmond is sent down after his star Wednesday, he's cool on that score. Still, I must remake a point I have made before. The Jays organization knew that Parrish was on a short leash when they called him up, if they had bothered to reconcile Purcey's turn in AAA with the major league schedule (which was easy enough to do since it was his first start out of the break) then Purcey could have started last Friday and Parrish's turn would have fallen on the off day Thursday. It's always mistified me how there doesn't seem to be anyone in any front office that crunches the upcoming schedule to try to maximize pitcher usage.

One further note on pitching - and I know Twitchy disagrees with this - if Listch get's 3 or 4 starts in AAA and isn't showing progress, then I'm in favor of getting Cecil up here for a half dozen starts or so. Yes, the Jays have been limiting his innings in AAA, but by the standard rule of thumb (don't increase a young pitcher's innings more than 40 over his previous high) he should be good for 10 more starts or so. That's exactly how many he'd have if he pitched until the end of the major league season.

~WillRain

It occurs to me....

...that the trade rumors keep saying a lot of teams are worried about AJ's contract. I suggest this thought:

If this is true, JP will be able to get AJ through waivers in August so he doesn't HAVE to deal him by July 31. Other teams get to wait that much longer to see if he will stay healthy and if they will stay in the race. St. Louis in particular gets to see of Carp and Wainwright come back solid.

Food for thought.

BTW, a lot of chatter is coming up about the White Sox wanting pitching and discussing trading Josh Fields. Could we be lucky enough to land Fields for Burnett?


~WillRain

Trade Winds

Rotoworld passes along some misfortunate news for the pin-stripers today (Jorge Posada may be in for season-ending surgery), while MLBTR notes their interest in our very own AJ Burnett, who locked it down against them in his final start of the first half the weekend before last. The Posada news should create some interest for Gregg Zaun seeing as how Brian Cashman tried to sign him as a backup catcher/part time first baseman back in the 2006 offseason. All of these swirling tidbits of information lead us to wonder if JP isn't being set up for a panty raid of the Yankees farm system for the ages at some point over the next ten days.

As much as they dislike looking up in the standings, the Yankees shouldn't really be in full panic mode. They're only 3 back in the Wild Card as of this writing, but the Posada news is a major blow and this is, as we've been reminded 50 jillion times, the final season for Yankee Stadium so blah blah blah...

With Posada mostly limited to firstbasemaning and DH-ing, Yankees catchers have put up a rather limp .243/.308/.352/.655 line so far this year that gets even less pretty when you look up Jose Molina (48 OPS+) and Chad Moeller (88 OPS+ in limited ABs, 66 OPS+ for his career) individually. A steady vet like Zaun--who's pretty reliable for a 100-ish OPS+, hits both ways, gets on base and has fewer defensive shortcomings than many like to admit--could help save the Yankees from hitting the stretch with a black hole in their lineup. For a team accustomed to post-season action every year, that means something.

The logic of bringing AJ Burnett on board is self-evident during a season when you've auditioned judge-punching Sidney Ponson, colossally overpriced AAA roster filler like Kei Igawa, and a Josh Towers clone in Darrell Rasner. I need not say more. No, I refuse to say more!

So what's a reasonable return should JP be willing to package Zaun and Burnett to the hated Yanquis?

At first thought I'd suggest Phil Hughes, so recently part of the much hyped "Generation Trey" (hrm, seems like only Joba Chamberlain panned out according to plan...) but who started the year poorly and is now unlikely to pitch before September. He's on the 60-day DL, but it's not for anything arm-related (a stress fracture in his rib cage) that would raise serious red flags. Hughes is still only 22 and probably ML-ready for 2009, providing us with a replacement for the departed AJ.

Would Cashman pull the trigger on a deal of this nature? Probably not of his own accord, but when an insane reprobate like Hank Steinbrenner has his boot to your throat it might be impossible to resist a "win now" approach.

Baseball America says the Yankees don't have a shortstop amongst their top 10 prospects--John Sickels can't even find one in their top 20 even, so I guess Jeter is just going to play forever--which is a shame because that's ideally one component we'd like to bring back in any prospective trade.

The rest of the BA list (aside from the obviously unattainable Joba Chamberlain and Hughes, who I've indentified as the most desirable prospect from our our perspective) features a few familiar names that have failed to impress at the big league level (Ian Kennedy, RHSP; Ross Ohlendorf, RHRP; Brett Gardner, OF) a few young OFs who've yet to master AA (Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata), a bunch of unimpressive righty starters (Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, Andrew Brackman) and C Jesus Montero, who's a long way off. None of these guys pull my hair back, Hughes kind of maybe does.

The Drunks propose sending Burnett, J-Mac and Uncle Matt (Stairs) to the Dodgers "for a shitload of prospects", which isn't a bad idea either because a shitload is a whole lot of young players and some of them would probably be good. Unless someone braver than I wants to probe JP on this during the call-in on Wednesday we'll just have to wait in suspense for another week and a half (at which point nothing will happen and there'll be nothing to talk about Jays-wise until September call-ups get announced).

Elsewhere, MLBTR reports that Japanese SS Tomo Nioka will indeed be a free agent this offseason. He's a guy, we need a guy. In a world of unpleasant options, injecting a little bit of bushido into the lineup might not be the worst one.

Mattius: it's the second inning and I haven't seen you in the stands yet, didn't bring a sign? Stay safe in B-More, chief.

-- Johnny Was

So what now?

In all of the trade rumour articles, AJ is consistently mentioned as "the top starting pitcher" available in trades. If that was the case, you'd have to believe the Phils would have been willing to offer Cardenas in a package for Burnett.

Obviously the big difference between AJ and Blanton comes down to two things - club control and money. Blanton costs 3.7 million this year, of which the Phils will pay a prorated 1.5-1.8 million. They also control him for another two years, which is a huge plus. AJ would cost them a prorated 6 or so million dollars, while having the ability to opt out at the end of the year.

But for a team that currently tied for first place, you'd think acquiring the superior talent would be more valuable to the Phils. If they were to sign AJ to a long-term deal, in order to avoid the opt out, they'd have Pat Burrell's 12 million coming off the books in 2009. Not that it's a good move to let Burrell go, but I get the feeling they just don't appreciate his value and won't pay him what he's worth. While Will & Johnny have recently suggested Manny as a DH for next year, I'd like to suggest Pat Burrell. He's usually got an OBP near 400 and a slugging above 500 - he's the bat this team needs.

But back to AJ and the Phils - if they wanted to win, it'd make more sense to go with the guy who has a 108 career ERA+, and is capable of putting up a 115-119 ERA+ in a home park that is known to be good to hitters. They wouldn't have to worry too much about home and away splits like they do with Blanton, who's been a career 4.78 ERA pitcher away from the pitchers park in Oakland (compared to the 3.79 in Oakland for his career).

Blanton has a 100 career ERA+ - he's an average starting pitcher. He's not a strong GB pitcher, so he'd be bound to give up more HR's in Philly. He'll be an upgrade over Adam Eaton, which I guess makes them a better team, but upgrading from horrible to merely shitty is nothing to be happy about. Blanton's still going to cost them games because of his inability to strike out hitters, and his reliance on defense (for which the Phils aren't that good).

What does this mean for the Jays? Despite all of AJ's talents, it's very likely he won't be traded before the deadline. JP has never made that big trade at the deadline, and he's had several candidates which could have been traded (Wells in 2006 before he signed the contract extension would have been creative). If the Phils were willing to give up a solid 2B prospect for Blanton, and not for AJ, it paints a pretty clear picture on how high clubs are on Burnett.

If the Jays really want to trade Burnett, I think it might help if they give a 72 hour window to give the team a chance to amend the opt out by adding extra $$ for AJ. No, they shouldn't have to do it, but that opt out is going to be the biggest reason why AJ has a better chance of opting out when the seasons over than he does of being traded. You do that (the 72 hour window), and you get the right to ask for superior prospects. And if you can get the extra prospects, than it's worth it to let the team talk to him before hand.

Twitchy.

Trade Talk

Colour me somewhat surprised by the Phillies trade for portly righty Joe Blanton yesterday if for no reason other than the fact that it was done on the down low without any word filtering through to the rumour mongers. Billy Beane could have sold higher on him in the offseason, but keeps with the plan of moving arms before they get too pricey.

The 27-year-old Kentuckyian is a proven eater of innings (and coconut creme donuts? No?), but he's not really the sort you'd really want to take into the playoffs as your number two starter. He's controllable for a couple of more years and didn't cost the farm, so I suppose Pat Gillick is abiding by the campsite rule in his final year as Phillies GM. Personally, had I been in his shoes I think I would've gone for the higher upside that is AJ Burnett and gambled all on a deeper playoff run this year, but what are you gonna do?

Turning homeward, Mark Zwolinski at The Star is reporting that Burnett most definitely does not want to be traded. The Cubs comments, the sarcastic hat tip? I guess we all read too much into that.

"It seems like there's only bad things get written. ... I'm always saying that I'm a Blue Jay and my loyalty is to this team and you still see some people writing stuff like my heart's not in it," Burnett said.

"I think I had a quote in the paper last weekend about I still had a Blue Jay on my chest and on my hat. Then a writer wrote, `Yeah, but not in his heart.' And when you got a guy pitching on three days' rest, you got a guy that came in the day after his bullpen to pitch an extra-inning game, take the ball and throw, I don't want people to question that (heart). You know I'm here.

"Just because my name's out there and all this stuff, and I made one mistake talking to a Chicago writer ... I enjoy being a Blue Jay and that's where I'm at. That's where I plan on being."

But hold the phone, "I'm a Blue Jay and I plan on being here for the rest of the season"? I don't mean to over-analyze these words, but nowhere in this profession of loyalty to his current club does he address the opt out issue and his status for next year. He's still got one foot out the door.

MLBTR lists the Mets, Cardinals and Chisox as teams that could still be interested in AJ, but JP won't be actively shopping the enigmatic righty because it will supposedly drive down his value. And I guess there's nothing wrong with waiting until the very end of the month when there's absolute empirical evidence as to whether the 2008 Jays have any Hail Mary shot at doing anything significant this year before making a move.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that an Burnett trade:

* would provide $4 million of salary relief
* open a slot in the rotation to audition a younger arm that will actually be with the team next year
* and most importantly, probably net the club something better than a very late 1st round pick in the 2009 amateur draft that you'd get as FA compensation after an opt out

It still makes sense, people.

-- Johnny Was

What to do?

Well, even the faintest of hopes for a resurrected season bit the dust in Seattle and even I am forced to concede that this season, one I was convinced was a return to the glory days, has inexplicably and unexplainably veered so throughly into the ditch that to continue to harbor hope is an exercise in masochism. Yes, it's possible we could play .650 ball from now to the end of the season and win 90 games. But I can't work up the passion to hope for it. That being the case, it's time to turn our thoughts to the second most fun activity in baseball - trade speculation.

I have always held the opinion that once you know you are out of it, it's time to think about what next year's roster is going to look like and sell off anyone who has value who is not a part of that vision. This has been, for me, the most frustrating part of the JP-era Jays is that between their summer-long tease and JP's passionate hopefulness, every July we are caught in a no-man's land on the fringe of contention where he can't bring himself to act.

I hope very much that in this, his probable last summer with that opportunity, he manages to cash in and bring us some value in return. Presented here, then, for your reading pleasure, is an attempt at an omnibus review of the market, the chips the Jays have to offer, and what potential return might be worth speculating about. Hopefully it will be comprehensible by the time I am done pulling together what is, in many ways, a very fluid set of circumstances.

Presumed sellers (a group which may grow): Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Seattle, San Diego, Colorado, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston, Washington.

Presumed buyers (a group which may shrink): Boston, NY (both teams), Tampa Bay, Chicago (both teams), LA (both teams) Arizona, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta.

Mushy middle (either because of standing or money): Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Texas, Florida.

On the Jays' roster, I think we can agree that for various reasons, Wells, Rios, Hill, Lind, Halladay, McGowan, and Marcum are not going anywhere. Rolen and Ryan would take pretty huge offers, I think, but might be moved. Most everyone else on the major league roster could at least be talked about (though not to say none of them would have an important role in 2009).

But that said, for my money, here are the most obvious players that might be moved and my take on their situation.

1. Barajas and/or Zaun: I list this first before AJ because it seems to me there's an obvious deal here. It is widely reported that the Marlins are looking for a catcher. If I'm the GM, I don't rest until I sell them on taking one of these guys for Dallas McPhearson. Even if I have to add a John Parrish or some such to the deal to make them happy, to me it is beyond obvious that this needs to happen. True McPhearson has an injury plagued and inconsistent history and true, his numbers are in the hitter-friendly PCL but even so, as a cheap possibility at DH (to guard against injury), 1B, or even 3B if an irresistible Rolen deal comes along, I don't see how we can pass up the opportunity to generate our own version of what Carlos Pena did in Tampa last year or Milton Bradley in Texas.

I would try to make a deal for one of these guys now (give the Marlins their choice) and, if Robinson Diaz recovers in time float the other one later. Other teams who might be interested in a catcher include Boston and Oakland.

2. AJ Burnett: Please, all you droolers out there with your knee-jerk AJ bashing, just control your bowels on this one. Even in this, admittedly his worst year, he's only had four truly awful starts in 18 and that over against 11 very good ones. Any contender in need is going to see value in that. Of course, no one is going to move until CC Sabathia lands, but the persistent rumor is that may happen even before his next start.

Before we address what teams and what they have, lets be clear about this - once CC is off the market, Burnett is either the best or second best remaining available starter (depending on whether or not Bedard is actually available). given that the M's HAVE to redeem the package they sent to Baltimore, they will be asking a ton and that should make AJ the more desirable target, even with his baggage and current inconsistency. So don't listen to what the obsessed tell you, once Sabathia is dealt Burnett moves to center-stage.

As for potential landing places, let's get this off the table - if Milwaukee is indeed offering LaPorta in a deal for CC it's almost inconceivable to me that they won't get him...but on the off chance I'm wrong about that, I think we can all agree that trying to leverage LaPorta for AJ would be our first priority. so my remarks flow from the presumption that Milwaukee got Sabathia and the other buyers are left to compete for the scraps.

It has been said that the Jays would prefer a shortstop and it is clear that over the coming years (3-4) it is their area of greatest need. It has also been rightly observed that there is very little in the way of a match among established players. Someone suggested that if the Brewers fail on CC, that the Jays express interest in JJ Hardy and there is some merit there, but on the whole it can be safely stated that if we acquired a SS, it would be a guy who's in the high minors. So let's look at the remaining contenders and see what is out there:

Boston - I can't see why they would be anxious to win AJ but Lowrie would certainly be a great return.

NYY - There's not really a good match here, certainly no SS to be coveted. I can't see them being a factor for AJ.

Tampa Bay - It would be kind of odd, I think, for the Rays to make a play for Burnett but certainly if they did you have to try to get Reid Brigiac from them. He's not having the best year in the minors but he is widely considered to be a prime prospect.

Chicago WS - I don't think the White Sox are in the market for much and leat of all a pitcher.
LA Angels - This is not a team that needs a SP.

Arizona - SS Reynaldo Navarro was listed #9 on Baseball America's pre-season rankings.

LA Dodgers - You can't speculate about young Dodger's shortstops without starting with young Taiwanese Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers are said to actually be looking for a veteran SS. I don't know what the team is thinking in not giving Hu the job, but if he's available he's the one to ask.

St. Louis - The Cards have a SS prospect in Pete Kozma but he's not real close and they don't have the luxury of trading him, even though they, like Baltimore, enjoy the advantage of being a team that AJ might not opt out on if they give him a little signing bonus. Earlier in the season, some speculated that major league outfielder Chris Duncan might be available. If so, one could do worse.

Chicago Cubs - Obviously, if you are dealing with the Cubs you have to covet 3B Josh Vitters. Lefty SPs Rich Hill and Sean Marshall are also desirable but there's no SS to be found.

Milwaukee - Beyond the names already mentioned, AA wunderkind Alicdes Escobar is the obvious choice. A SS with great defense and a ridiculous OBP is something that would solve a lot of problems.

Philadelphia - Jason Donald, a SS in AA for the Phillies is not a high profile prospect but the 23 year old is hitting quite well in Reading. I’ve no idea how good his fielding is.

Atlanta - Brent Lillibridge would have been the obvious answer a year ago, but he's struggling this season.

NY Mets - Having cleaned out their best prospects to get Santana, I don't look for them to be a major player.

One might also make note of Baltimore, since they are one of two teams Burnett might opt to stay with, but they are not likely to match the offers of some of the higher profile contenders.


3. David Eckstein - Rumor has it the Dodgers want a veteran to take up the slack of the injured Rafael Furcal (and why they are afraid to use Hu I do not know) and Baltimore is said to be mulling the idea. I hesitate to speculate on what Eck might bring because, frankly, anything with any upside is a deal you make. i don't hate the man but he is a player of limited value.

4. Brian Tallet - I've heard Wilner say on occasion that the market for RP is marginal, but the rumor mills insist that pitchers like Ron Mahay are drawing a lot of interest as a lot of contenders are short on LHRP. I know that the Brewers have only one quality lefty in the pen, ditto the Rangers, Cardinals, Phillies, A's, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Marlins, Tigers, Cubs, O's and D'Backs.

Far be it for me to speculate on the return from such a large group, but notice how often the possibility exists for us to pad a Burnett deal in order to maximize our return.

5. Lyle Overbay - this one is somewhat predicated on the idea of acquiring some other good young hitter which makes it wise to clear Overbay out of the way. I include it mostly because there are a lot of Overbay-bashers out there. The problem is, none of the contenders are hurting for what Overbay brings to the table. I don't see a deal.

6. Jason Frasor - On the one hand, RHRP has been a minor weakness in our staff, but on the other, one can easily project League, Accardo, Wolfe and Janssen into 2009 and beyond and Frasor is likely to be gone before next season anyway. Some teams, like the Yankees, stand in great enough need that even a local whipping boy like Frasor has some value.

7. Matt Stairs - some have speculated about the Dodgers but I don’t see a team who needs him bad enough to gamble on having him there next year. I don’t see a deal.

8. Jesse Litsch - trading AJ makes it more problematic to deal Litsch even under the rubric of “sell high” but give the lack of quality SP on the market and the number of contenders in need, it’d be foolish to not listen to offers if you could get some.

9. Brad Wilkerson/Shannon Stewart - don’t fool yourself, Stewart has no value because even a team that wants him knows we have no room. Wilkerson might have the most very marginal of value....as in you might get a little case for him but nothing of interest to a fan.

~WillRain

Saturday Morningness

Since the DJFs were couragous enough to reveal their faces, I thought I might as well follow suit and post a photo of myself to satisfy your curiosity. There you have it, the shocking truth. The years have not been kind; I'm only 29 years old.

What did last night's stinker do for AJ Burnett's trade value or, more importantly, his quest for type A free agent status? Not much good, sadly. Still, we owe Burnett some gratitude for at least providing one story line worth talking about around the water cooler. Bob Elliot says the prospect-poor Phillies, lacking the pieces to obtain a CC Sabbathia or Joe Blanton/Rich Harden, have been most active in scouting Burnett. They'd love him in Philly, so let's hope this works out.

More rumours? If you were keen on seeing Burnett and Eckstein go to the Dodgers for something juicy, cool your jets. It seems Nedco has more interest in CC Sabbathia (a Cali dude they have the money to re-sign) and Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson. Now, everything changes if the Brewers are ready to give up Matt LaPorta for Sabbathia... Ken Rosenthal says it's likely CC gets moved before his start on Tuesday, so the runner up may well turn its attention our way.

It's not like I'm totally disengaging from the Jays emotionally (as I have done with the Leafs pretty much every year at Christmas time since the lockout), but there really wasn't much to write about yesterday. Even Wilner is finding it hard to conceal his disappointment/boredom/contempt.

Blair truly nailed everything I've been trying to say about why JP must be strung up here and now in surveying the terrain to find that this is the year when a surprise team could sneak into the playoffs, so just read his piece, s'il vous plait.

Closer to a playoff spot than the Jays (10 back in the Wild Card)?

Baltimore Orioles: 6 back in the Wild Card. What?

Pittsburgh Pirates: 7.5 back in the Wild Card.

San Francisco Giants: 5 back in the NL West.

San Diego Padres: 9 back in the NL West with a .391 winning percentage. What in the fuck? (Anyone know when/whether the next season of Trailer Park Boys comes out?)

And the Kansas City Fucking Royals, 10.5 back in the AL Central, just miss the list.

There you have it.

The cavalacade of factoids continues...

Last night Sportsnet flashed a graphic between ads for autotrader.ca showing that the 2008 Jays are 41 homeruns behind their total at this point last year (101-60), and it got me to thinking. Matt Stairs and Vernon Wells currently share the team lead with 8 HR at 87 games into the season, making it entirely possible that no one on the team hits 20 this year.

When was the last time that happened? Ah, that would be strike-shortened 1981, when John Mayberry lead the team with 17. This indignity has only happened once in club history over a full season, that being the inaugural season of 1977, when aging DH Ron Fairly came up just short with 19. Long ball-digging chicks cannot be impressed.

All in all, this must be taking quite the toll on die hards like us and stoking disinterest amongst the ever important "casual fan." A cursory look at the numbers show that the Jays are still drawing in the middle of the pack (7th of 14 in the AL) just as they were last year, but the raw numbers are down. This does not bode well for payroll, or for JP's continued employment for that matter, when the Rogers suits do their post-mortem in October.

I caught snippets of a few games yesterday and got to thinking about a few overlooked bats worth considering for next year. What if the Yankees declined Jason Giambi's $22 million club option for next year? There's a $5 million buyout there and he has been very productive this year, but I think he might be a good fit in TO if he came available. Manny Ramirez? His behaviour is becoming increasingly erratic (the high five catch, shoving an aged travelling secretary to the ground) and it's no lock the Bosox exercise his $20 million club option for next year.

Now, I'm not saying that either are worth bringing on board at anything approaching their current salaries (or for more than 1 year if possible), but it's not like we've got the $200 million or so necessary to reel in Mark Teixeira. You gotta get your power somewhere, folks.

Enjoy this wonderous Saturday and know that I love you all very much.

-- Johnny Was

Wake me up, I must be dreaming

It's only one game, but I think Cito & Tenace have already made a big impact on the team. It's been mentioned before that their goal was to get this team to be more aggressive earlier in the count, and get back to doing whatever it was that got them to the majors - pulling the ball, hitting to all fields - and sticking to that game plan.

The scouting report on the Jays as a team was obviously to get ahead in the count, knowing the Jays would take some pitches, and once ahead expand the zone and take advantage of a pitchers count. But tonight, when Arroyo through fastball after fastball down the middle, the Jays jumped on it and crushed everything Arroyo threw at them.

Alex Rios hit a HR for what seemed like the first time since 2006. I'm really hoping that he's starting to find his groove, rather than him just taking advantage of a ridiculously bad Arroyo. Rolen and Zaun also joined in on the HR fun, and it was nice to see Rolen show some power. As I mentioned earlier, he had a 100 AB streak where he was basically a good singles hitter with discipline.

Adam Lind only went 2-5 last night, driving in a run and boosting his average to 185. He's hitting 500/556/875 since his return to the majors, in a grand total of 8 AB's. If we can call him a bust after 19 at bats, then we should give him an MVP award based on 8 AB's too.

Edit: I forgot to add that I'm really hoping that this offensive outburst has more to do with the Jays being aggressive, and not because Bronson Arroyo sucks.

Lost in the offensive outburst was the return to form of AJ Burnett. He pitched 8 dominant innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 ER, 3BB and 7K's. Tallet was pretty good in the 9th as well, allowing no hits, no walks & striking out one. I still feel a little nervous when he's pitching, but you have to admire the depth of the Jays bullpen that with a 13 run lead, the Jays can trot out a pitcher with a 2.17 ERA heading into the game (now 2.10).

Considering the struggles of virtually every bullpen in the game, it would be wise for the Jays to trade a couple of relievers for prospects or even in a package to help them acquire an upgrade in the lineup. Tallet, Frasor and Wolfe could all be moved, and considering the market for relievers the Jays could expect a decent piece in return. Well, not for Frasor, but for a lefty with a 2.10 ERA who can get RH batters out, and a young, cheap RH reliever in Wolfe, they should be able to get a return.

If any of the names I mentioned are traded, the Jays will not have to go out and find a new reliever. They have several options in AAA, most notably Davis Romero.

The big question on my mind is where do the Jays go from here? The best case scenario is that the offense starts performing to pre-season expectations, and is a middle of the pack AL lineup. Not a great one, but with this pitching staff, enough to have a very competitive season. The other scenario, one we've seen too many times over the past 4-5 years, is that after a big win like this the Jays lose the next two games 2-1 and 6-3. I think tonights game of Halladay vs Harang (who up to this year had been one of the most underrated starters in the NL) will go a long way too showing us if the Jays are for real or not.

Twitchy.

Quick Hits

There's too much news around Jays land for it to go unremarked upon here, at least in brief. What follows is more an attempt to give you an omnibus of the developments, rumors, and speculations out there than to expound on them (albeit you know I can't entirely refrain from comment).

Item - Shaun Marcum has been placed in the 15-day DL, will miss at least two starts and visit Dr. Andrews. Anyone NOT in a state of terror about this is not a Jays fan. In the short term, the impact is minimal. There are so many off days between now and the break that we will only need a fifth starter once before the Yankees series that closes out the first half. That's probably going to be John Parrish this time. Long term, say all the prayers you know that this is mild and not the harbinger of Tommy John surgery.

Item - AJ Burnett's name keeps coming up in connection with the Phillies. The decision here, from their perspective, likely turns on whether it is best to act swiftly and get more starts, or wait and get in on the presumed Sabathia sweepstakes. The Phillies don't have stellar prospects but Greg Golson and Kyle Drabek have some appeal.

Item - JP apologized to the Reds and Adam Dunn for his brainless moment Wednesday night. Dunn was not forgiving but Jocketty noted that JP had mentioned to him that he had just found out he had to fire the manager and half the coaching staff. While the flub is indefensible, I for one am inclined to sympathize with a man who - while under astounding stress - said something stupid. Perhaps it is easy to dismiss JP as a cold calculating bastard but maybe, just MAYBE, the guy really did feel crushed by the idea that he had to put four men he had hired, at least one of whom was a long time close friend, on the unemployment line. Maybe he's human.

Item - Adam Lind was called up when Marcum hit the DL. This is great news provided he gets to play. Cito was, back in the day, notorious for favoring veterans but I do not think for a minute that Lind, given how he has been handled before, was called up to sit. In fact, I would say he'll play every single day and this will be because either (a) we all know that the odds of contending are getting so long there's no point in the pretense; or (b) he's going to be featured in hopes he rips up major league pitching and makes himself a valuable chip for - presumably - Jason Bay. In any case, we can all agree that the greatest crime of all would be to sit him in the majors while Wilkerson got to play.

Item - Uncle Dick speculates that JP is on very very thin ice and cites the fact that Cito is exactly the sort of move JP would not have made (which may well be true but not for the reasons Griff cites) and smells of Godfrey (which is hardly news) - but also because, so he claims, Godfrey was incensed by the Dunn Incident.

Item - Doc was said to be "day to day" after the liner off his head, but the initial report is that he is good to go for his next start. If he had had an Aaron Hill-like reaction then there could be no doubt that the team is in free-fall for the foreseeable future. It is, IMO, beyond bizzare that this runaway train of losses is compounded by so much other bad news.

Item - last report says Hill, btw, is still out indefinitely. Safe to say until at least the break. Blair reports the concussion specialist told the team he should do nothing baseball related for at least two weeks.

Item - Mench is out and Brandon League is recalled. Obvious moves, not worth in depth comments.

~WillRain

The Roundup JR

Well, that series couldn't have ended any worse. I didn't get a chance to see the game, but after reading the boxscore I'm thinking that was a blessing in disguise. The Jays tried my DH/C platoon idea with Barajas catching and Zaun dhing, and it kinda worked. Zaun at least had a nice game at the plate hitting a 2 run bomb.

Outside of that HR though, I'm wondering where all the power has gone. You know somethings not right when Rod Barajas, good as he's been, is third on the team with 5 HR, and the guy who missed a month, Vernon Wells, is second with 7. Rios obviously needs to pick it up, but the other player who's shown a somewhat surprising lack of power is Rolen.

Now I know, Rolen is the Greatest Jay ever and to speak ill of him is blasphemy. But over his last 17 at bats he's been really struggling, hitting 118/250/294. Even worse - over his past 93 at bats he's been primarily a singles hitter, posting a line of 269/376/387. I think Rolen has escaped most of the blame because we were all in awe about how amazing he was during his first couple of weeks. But lately, Rolen has been just as guilty of bringing down the offense, if not moreso, than Rios. At least Rios is showing some signs of life lately.

By now everyone knows that Thigpen was sent down to AAA to activate Zaun from the d/l. But that doesn't change the fact that the way they used him was downright shameful. He was terrific behind the plate for Marcum's start, and as a potentially useful prospect down the road to give him 6 at bats during a 15 day period is just unacceptable. I don't know if this was due to Barajas' hot streak (of which playing virtually every day but one in Zaun's 15+ day absence is batshit crazy). Maybe it was because Gibbons didn't trust Thigpen, although after his start with Marcum I don't see how this would be the case. Hell, maybe it was because of some unknown factor (orders from JP?). Regardless, the fact he got 6 AB over a 15 day period, is terrible development by the Jays, and once again shows a lack of foresight when dealing with prospects. I realize the Jays are trying to compete, and using Thigpen too often may not be the best way to do so. But you're telling me over 15 days they couldn't have found a way to get him some at bats every day or every other day?

AJ Burnett continues to show us why he's such a tool. He made some statements about how if he wasn't a Jay he'd love to be a Cub. AJ, here's a little tip for you - your first and only response to any question about "Would you like to play for team X" should be "I'm happy as a Toronto Blue Jay and I can't imagine playing anywhere else". No more, no less. We know you're lying, and you know you're lying if you say that, but at least it looks good to the media. Nobody gives a shit what team you actually want to play for (except for the one you're playing on now). If you just play dumb, and keep those those thoughts to yourself, than everybody's happy. It makes a world of difference saying "I like the team I'm on" vs "I like the team I'm on, but..."

What I found interesting from that link wasn't about AJ and the Cubs, but about his opt out:

"I have an opt out in my contract," Burnett said. "So people are going to have their own opinion on that. Everybody's talking about me opting out, but nobody's talking about me staying. There's a 100-percent chance of that as well."

If there's a 100% chance of you not opting out, than why was an opt out put into your contract? I don't even care if JP offered you an opt out - if you planned on staying, wouldn't it have made more sense to say "no thanks, I don't want an opt out because I plan on playing all 5 years with this team"?

And if there is a 100% chance of you staying, why don't you prove it by getting your lawyers with the Jays lawyers and removing the opt-out from your contract?

The Jays have an off day today, and they play the Brew Crew in Milwaukee on Tuesday. Oh boy, with the pitcher hitting, this team will have even less offense!

Elsewhere:

Eric Gagne is starting to throw off the mound in his attempt to rehab from injury. Despite his 1-2 record, a 6.98 ERA, and his 2.02 WHIP, I strongly believe some team will buy into the fact that Gagne was awesome 5 years ago and give him a ridiculous contract in 2009. He'll be 33 by then, and should classify as an aging veteran, so Gagne should be at the top of Brian Sabean's 2009 FA wish list.

Chris Carpenter had a set back in his return from TJ. He's gone to see Doc Andrews to find out if "he has a nerve condition common to recipients of the surgery". He'd be out till 2009 if he did have that nerve issue. It's really a shame how Carpenter has been injured for nearly his entire career, cause the past few years when he was healthy he was a monster.

Twitchy.

Say what?

I was checking out ESPN's site as I always do in the morning, when I found some potentially disturbing Jays news:

Rumor has it that although the Jays haven't yet made it official, they also will leave A.J. Burnett and Shaun Marcum back when the team returns north for the season. Burnett suffered a torn fingernail this spring and Marcum is recovering from knee surgery. Both still need more work to get ready for the season. No word yet on whether either of them will miss a start, but be prepared for it to happen, just in case.

What the fuck? I realize it's just a rumour, but why is this, in some random ESPN fantasy baseball news article, the first I'm hearing that Marcum & AJ may not come up with the club? You know, that's probably the first clue that these guys don't know what they're talking about. My bet is that this is some bullshit article because the fantasy experts are worried that Marcum may not be a good pick because he had knee surgery last year, and not because Marcum may actually spend time on the DL.

But just to cover my bases, in case they actually are right - the Jays wouldn't need a fifth starter (Litsch becoming the fourth) until April 10th or 12, so if it's a minor thing it's not the end of the world. But if this goes longer, our SP becomes a bit of a liability. Banks, Parrish, Wolfe...the internal options aren't great at this point.

I don't expect AJ to miss his start, and after re-reading the article I don't expect Marcum to miss much time. Quite frankly, ESPN should stick to letting these guys make up the rumours around here.

So yeah, I don't actually expect this to happen, but I figured since nobody brought this up it was worth pointing out.

The ESPN article also brings up some other Jays news, specifically on the health of Rolen & Ryan. With Rolen, it's the same ole two weeks and pain tolerance stuff. Oh boo hoo Rolen, it's just a nail and a fractured finger. Get over it. I have wrist tendonitis but you don't see me issuing a press conference getting someone else to cry on my behalf. Hell, I've been blogging for over 2-3 weeks with this damn thing and it hurts like a bitch to type. If I can do my job, you can still do yours. Suck it up.

Here's what they say about Ryan though:

Ricciardi also said injured reliever B.J. Ryan is out until "at least mid-April, in the best-case scenario" because of pain in his surgically repaired left (throwing) arm. The Jays intend to keep him in Florida as the team heads north to begin the season. Ryan is throwing on the side and "making strides," according to Ricciardi. Look for the Jays to be cautious with him, and even mid-April sounds optimistic to me.

Nothing really new here, shouldn't be back till mid-April. I still don't see him coming back till May at the earliest.

Twitchy.

Spring Training Notes

It's always nice to see players rebound after an injury. Spring training can be an indication of whether or not a player has successfully recovered from said injury. Unless they're doing poorly, in which case spring training is meaningless....

Lyle Overbay is off to a wicked start. In 35 AB he's hitting 371/436/514, and he's been one of the most dangerous bats to date for the Jays (that's not saying much though...). The biggest thing for me, is that out of his 13 hits, 5 are doubles. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but if he's hitting a ton of doubles, it's a great sign.

Scott Rolen's another player coming off an injury plauged season. While I refused to believe him when he claimed his shoulder was better, the numbers speak for themselves. In 26 AB, he's hitting 346/469/615. The significant thing for me is out of his 9 hits, he's hit 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So it's not like he's getting cheap little hits, he's crushing the ball. And he's showing some nice plate discipline with 5 BB to 5 K's.

Following the Stewart-Johnson debate, nobody has pulled away or proven they deserve a spot. Johnson is hitting 265/316/324, while Stew is hitting 222/323/407. Stew has performed better to date, but I wish I could find some RHP/LHP splits. Stew does have 4 BB to 0 K, whereas Johnson has 0 BB and 4K. He's not doing much to disprove his critics, and unless he makes significant strides the Jays are likely to non-tender him. A shame, cause I'm thinking this one could bite us in the ass.

Everyone seems to be talking about how scrappy Eckstein is, but nobody is talking about how crappy Eckstein has been. He's hitting 161/278/323 so far. He hasn't struck out, and he's got a good OBP differential from his BA, but it's not a good start. Yes, I know it's spring training, but nobody seems to be talking about Eckstein's stats, so I thought it was worth bringing up...

Aaron Hill has been one of the best players to date. He's hitting 429/500/536. The slugging isn't the number that should get your attention - it's the OBP. Opposing pitchers would try to intentionally walk Hill and he'd swing at the pitch. But he's walked a couple times, and that's a good sign going forward. If he walks more in the regular season, he'll have a shot at being in the top tier of 2B in the league.

Wells hasn't been hitting so well, but he's a slow starter. Again, it's only spring training, but you have to be a little worried that Wells is only hitting 257/278/400. He's hitting for very little power, and he's not hitting for average. Knowing he's a slow starter, coming off major surgery, the Jays should bat him at the bottom of the order until he shows he's recovered and productive. They should ease him back in, rather than push him to be the best offensive player on the team. Coming off major surgery, the only thing I want him tearing is the cover off the ball when he launches it into the stands.

As for the pitching, I'm not going to focus on the ERA. The main thing is that guys like Accardo, McGowan, Doc, Litsch & Marcum have solid K:BB rates. I am somewhat concerned about AJ's 5:6 K:BB ratio, but it is spring training and he's without his curveball. Speaking of which, the season starts in a week and a half an AJ still hasn't thrown the curve. I'm extremely paranoid, so I think this is something worth monitoring.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

I salute MLB's efforts to expand into China even though they're less likely to succeed than, say, a Pakistani campaign to bring cricket to the United States.

I spent about five weeks in China during the summer of 2006 and was curious enough about the state of the American pastime in the People's Republic that I had the missus get on the blower to see if we could get some tickets for a game.

When we spoke to a secretary for the Beijing Tigers, the Yankees of the four-team China Baseball League (take it for what it's worth), she first seemed shocked that a lao wai (a non-Asian foreigner) was interested in taking in a game. She was even more baffled by my request for a jersey, t-shirt, or hat, since only players wore those, right? In any event, it all came to naught; she knew neither when nor where the club's next game would take place, which indicates that the CBL is less organized than your average North American T-Ball League.

Despite numerous obstacles (the Chinese have a built-in inferiority complex when it comes to team--and especially mens' team--sports, noone will actually buy official MLB merch when they can get knockoffs for pennies on the dollar, the practice of using umbrellas on sunny days, blocking the view of other spectators, etc.), the MLB has high hopes in the country. I'm keeping tabs and will return to this should anything interesting crop up in the future.

Before I get into real Jays stuff, I'll leave this by noting that the best place in China hands down is the former German naval outpost, Tsingtao (Qingdao). The city is a bustling port and major brewery town now (one part of the imperialist legacy that survived the Cultural Revolution) known as Beer City Asia. Every shop, vendor, news agent, restaurant, etc., had multiple kegs set up out on the sidewalk and you can spend your day walking around town filling your cup for a couple of dimes or so a throw as you meander the streets taking in buddhist temples and turn of the century German architecture. If you want to take some beer back to your hotel, you can go with bottles, or, if you're feeling adventuresome, take home a plastic shopping bag full. It's sold by the kilogram and haggling on price is all part of the game. Your third kg will get pretty flat by the time you're ready to drink it, but still...

The next wave of Casey Janssen updates... Blair writes that this is a "deeply personal" injury for the club (and Casey, of course) because Janssen was one of JP's early guys and the organization is very sensitive to criticism of its drafts. His shoulder woes were a known problem as early as September of last year--which throws new light on what happened two days ago--but JP kept it under his hat so as not to weaken his hand in trade discussions. JP's not panicking and he's rejected a FA fill-in (Kyle Lohse) out of hand because the well is dry.

I don't really really like that. If Reed gets shipped to the Mets, we save about $2 million, which is about what you'd pay for 2/3 of a season from Kyle Lohse before moving him at the trade deadline if all else is going well. It doesn't seem like JP feels enough urgency to go the trade route.

Enter Rule V pickup Randy David Wells? I'll do a profile today or tomorrow.

Wilner is pretty chuffed about Burnett's changeup. Bastian says V-Dub's shoulder is doing great.

Canada presses on in its bid for Olympic Baseball Gold. Jays pitcher Aaron Wideman (A+) is a name to watch.

ELSEWHERE:

* It really kicked off between the Yankees and Rays yesterday and it's abundantly clear which side was in the wrong. The issue of playing too hard always crops up when a player gets hurt as a result of a collusion in spring training; we've seen this before. The Yankees took issue when a Rays farmhand ran one of their farmhands at the plate (names are unimportant, neither was going to be in the bigs this year). There was no malicious intent and I think the Rays side adequately expressed regret that the Yankees catcher was injured (he's expected to miss 10 weeks). If you make $10+ million a year, as most Yankees do, then yes indeed, ST is something that can be approached as a tedious but necessary pre-season annoyance--this is pretty much how YES characterized it for Yankee stars in the Jays-Yanks game the other day. But there are also alot of minor leaguers in camp who are battling tooth and nail for a roster spot, or often a spot in AAA rather than AA. They have as much of a right to play hard and slide headfirst as someone like Jason Giambi does to leave in the fourth inning and spend the rest of the afternoon golfing.

The Yankees turned retaliation, ridiculuous of its own right in ST, into escalation. Evan Longoria, the Rays stud prospect and probable 3B this year, was beaned. That should have ended it, but the Yanks play to win, even if it is a silly game of tit for tat. Ghoulish-looking Shelly Duncan later did a pretty good impression of a Ty Cobb slide into second, burying his cleats into Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura's thigh, drawing blood. The Rays, especially sensitive after being ran roughshod over by another AL East bully last year in ST, proceeded to throw down like men. Here are some photos from D-Ray's Bay. Expect this to carry over into the regular season, as if we needed any more reason to hate the Yankees.

* Still with the Rays, Rocco Baldelli is unwell. He has "some type of metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities", which is medical speak for a condition that prevents his muscles from recovering, thereby leaving him fatigued all the time. Doctors really have no idea how long it'll take to overcome this, and health trumps baseball. He starts the season on the DL.

* The Boston Herald reports that the Bosox too feel that they could use another starter. I guess we're not alone in that boat... And less seriously, "Red Sox hurler Clay Buchholz and Penthouse Pet of the Year Erica Ellyson are reportedly an item." Mmmhmm.

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Even though I'm pretty much openly rooting against Jesse Litsch to win the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, I can still admit that it's kind of cute to see that he's trying so hard. We were all so caught up with JP's left field shenanigans that this one sort of fell to the back burner.

Gibby more or less threw down the gauntlet for both Litschy and Janssen yesterday in the tone of a man who was on his last can of Diet Coke and needed to get to the supermarket to buy more RIGHT AWAY:

"We know what the veterans can do," Gibbons said shortly after the Blue Jays' arrival at the Bright House Field for yesterday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies...

"Now it's time for these young kids to start showing what they've got," Gibbons said yesterday. "Now it's time — they've got everything working.

"Veterans you can count on, they have track records. The young kids, they don't. They've got to perform."

Litsch did perform well yesterday against the Phillies, surrendering only one run and two hits over four innings. With six Ks! Jesse Litsch? Yep, six Ks. Ryan Howard did go deep, as he is prone to do from time to time.

Still, as well as Litsch pitches over the next three weeks the fact remains that this should be Casey Janssen's job to lose.

Some credit must go to Alan Ryan for extracting some comments that allow Litsch's inner Einstein to shine through:

"You can't be anybody different than who you are," said the philosopher. "I just go out and be the same dude.

"You go out with the same mentality and let things happen. You go out there with pressure on your back ... well, that's where bad stuff happens."

Ok, so far so good.

"You've also got to come out wanting it," he said, elaborating on his mental approach. "You know, wanting it every day.

"You've got to want things. If you go out wanting things, they come easier than just putting them on a shelf."

The things I want, come easier, shelving? It's not quite "you can stuff your sorries in a sack!" but you get the idea. Generally.

Wilner agrees that Casey Janssen is the better candidate for fifth starter because Litsch still has much to learn (and was really crappy against lefties last year). He also expresses a hearty skepticism of walk machine John Parrish. My head hurts from nodding in agreement so much.

Also, Gibby is planning on holding Dustin McGowan back from his next scheduled start against the Yankees in favour of Gustavo Chacin. He wants New York to see as little of his young ace-in-the-making as possible now, so he's opted for someone who has no chance of throwing serious innings for the club this year. B'dum tish!

Zaunnie thinks AJ Burnett is making the best of a bad situation regarding his nail by learning to pitch to contact and getting hitters out with a fastball-sinker-changeup combo. And apparently the dude is working on a slider, too. Zaunnie in his own words:

"The fact he's not throwing curves all spring is actually going to save some wear and tear on the arm. More than that, it's going to make him a better pitcher because he's leaning on the other pitches right now, polishing those up, so that when he does start throwing his breaking ball he'll be able to get some quick outs on sinkers and changeups and not have to go three, four, five pitches deep in the count and strike everybody out to get his outs. He'll be able to do it quickly."

Blair weighs in on Barry Bonds. He calls the Rays a young, exciting, Expo-ish club (not sure that that's a compliment, but still) that'll make some noise in '09. But they're not ready now and their offseason has been all about clearing out the bad apples, so BB doesn't make sense. Not so the Mets, Chisox and Cubs, one of whom he figures will bite on the Sultan of Steroids. Ok, fair enough.

ELSEWHERE:

The Bosox are cautiously optimistic that bbq pork enthusiast Josh Beckett isn't in serious trouble after his recent bout of back spasms. For you medical buffs:

According to Francona, the Sox have deemed Beckett’s injury “muscular” in nature, meaning the club has ruled out much bigger problems, like ruptured or herniated disks.

Nevertheless, the club is to depart for its season-opening series in Japan in just nine days and it's unclear if Beckett will be able to make the 17-hour flight. Seriously, flying to Asia sucks. It's pretty far away... So, probably no Beckett or Matsuzaka for their season opener. I feel for those Japanese fans who are paying 4 billion yen for tickets to a game Tim Wakefield is starting.

-- Johnny Was