A Modest Proposal

Yes, I know, JP has specifically said he is not interested in dealing BJ Ryan. Ok, I'm going to dispense with that right now. JP has a long and proud history of doing exactly the thing he's said publicly he has no interest in doing. We already know that he's dealing with budget restrictions and most of us are savvy enough to survey the marketplace and figure out the obvious answer to the question of which contract makes the most sense to deal, both in terms of the market and in terms of how well the team carries on without the player.

Don't get me wrong about Ryan - I love the guy. I believe in him, iu have every confidence he'll be a great closer in 2009. If they Jays were not making so much noise about money woes, I wouldn't even be talking about moving him. But all things considered, his contract is the glaringly obvious one to dangle.

Now, it so happens, as all this is going on, in another MLB city there's a team which the Jays had dealings with not too long ago. Despite having a couple of promising young relievers, they are flirting with Brian Fuentes whom they would like to sign for a two year deal at something like $9-10 million per (co-incidentally, just what Ryan is under contract for) but who is growing more frustreated that Fuentes wants to play for the Angels and is waiting on them, and by Fuentes insistance on a three year deal. That team, the St. Louis Cardinals, provide what is, in my opinion, possibly the best match for the Jays on a Ryan deal. The idea is at least on the radar of Post-Dispatch writer Rick Hummel though he seems unsure about the potential return, but I have a suggestion.

Ken Rosenthal reported something a couple of weeks ago (per MLBTR) which is worth noting - the Cardinals apparently offered Rick Ankiel (and a prospect) to the Mariners in a deal for JJ Putz.If Ankiel is worth Putz, and if the Cardinals are willing to spend $10 million a year over the next two years for a closer, then the Jays need to make a deal happen.

Rick Ankiel for B.J. Ryan

I won't go into proving to you that Ryan meets the Cards' needs as well as Fuentes or Putz would, but you may be wondering about how Ankiel makes sense for the Jays. After all, he's one year away from free agency and he's represented by the dreaded Scott Boras (ruling out the possibility of an extension). Well, let me explain it.

First, Ankiel is a legitimate CF defender who would, along with Wells and Rios, give the Jays one of the best defensive outfields in the majors. He would allow Adam Lind to DH and Travis Snider to stay in AAA to start the season, or, alternately, give the Jays the depth to trade Lyle Overbay if a suitable deal arose. His OPS+ was virtually identical to that of Vernon Wells in 2008 - the best on the Jays - and he probably has a bit more upside yet to tap. Yes, he had trouble with LHP last year, it's difficult to asses how big an issue that will be going forward given how little opportunity he's had as a hitter. Furthermore, he made only $900,000 last year which means his salary this year will, despite being in his last year of arbitration, be far less than that of any of the reliable names who are free agents. Only two left fielders in the AL hit better than Ankiel did in 2008.

It would be good if the Jays could manage to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal but knowing Boras they would pay a premium to do so. it would, of course, be even better if we could persuade the Cards to give up Ryan Ludwick for him - who had a better year but is less certain to maintain his level of performance. but even as it stands, if the Jays feel the need to lose a significant chunk of payroll, Ankiel is a good return and it clears out $10 million out of an overburdened 2010 payroll. Finally, if Ankiel performs to that level or higher in 2009, he could hand us a couple of solid draft picks in the 2010 draft (as opposed to the 2011 draft).

Yes, in an ideal situation the Jays could persuade the Angels to give us Brandon Wood, or we could find in some other place a young, talented shortstop who's under control for several years - I would certainly ask the Angels before making any other deal - but there is no indication such a deal is likely to occur. I happily concede that getting young cheap high-upside talent is better than getting a guy in his walk year. And with the Brewers insisting JJ Hardy is off the market, the options to add a younger talent from a team willing to invest considerable money in a closer seem to have dried up.

Any time you make a trade your gambling the opportunity costs of doing something else with the player you traded, so I can't argue there's not a better opportunity out there, unreported. But the way the pieces fit together here - Ankiel having been offered, what they are willing to pay Fuentes, what Ryan makes, the Jays money woes - all these factors say to me that there's a natural match here.

~WillRain

What a day for a daydream...

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cardinals offered Rick Ankiel and a prospect to the Mariners for JJ Putz. Of course, all such reports should be taken with a bucket of salt but it got me thinking.

Putz will be 32 next season, he's under contract for 2009 with a 2010 option, for a total of about $13.6 million, and he had injury issues last year.

BJ Ryan will be 33 next year, is over a year removed from his injury and is under contract for $20 million over the next two years.

If they are even talking about Ankiel for Putz, why can't we get them interested in Ankiel for Ryan? Even if we had to kick in a few million? Ankiel in LF would be a very nice defensive upgrade, and would make it easier to deal Overbay if/when we wanted to go with Snider. Sure, he's a FA after 2009, but Ryan's probably going to have to come off the books before 2010 anyway unless the finances get better.

It goes without saying that if you could get a young player you'd have for years for Ryan then you do that but if not, Ankiel would be worthwhile.

~Will

Wild and Crazy!

I have a trade idea.

Now, these sorts of ideas are always wildly unlikely to happen but I had this brainstorm and figured I'd share it with you . . . because this is my blog (in part) and I CAN. So there.

EDIT -

Given i have re-evaluated and recanted this idea, I did not want it taking up so much space on the front page, so I have removed the body of this post. In the interest of integrity, i have added that which I removed her to the comments on this post so you can still find it if for some reason you didn't see it originally and want to see what i'm talking about. The best thing though, is just to pretend this post never happened.

~WillRain

Dave Purcey Bulletin

After getting Shellac'd by the Phillies in Philly on Friday, Dave Purcey was back on the Greyhound to Syracuse for some home action against Sergio Santos and the Rochesters this afternoon. And as clever as it is to suggest that he use "My Black Ass" as his new intro music for future major league starts, he was great once again pretty much as he has been in each of his minor league starts this year.

Purcey threw up goose eggs for 6 IP and left in line for the win, but Brandon League suffered a minor meltdown in the 9th for a blown save before the bats won it in the 10th. Normally I don't really bother to note who got the W and who wore the goat horns, but Purcey did match up with some guy named Francisco Liriano, of whose exploits you may be familiar.

In the end, Purcey surrendered 5 hits, walked 3 and K'd 5. The rest of the ledger is somewhat of a mixed bag: on the plus side, he kept the ball on the ground, inducing 8 groundouts to 3 flyouts; on the negative side, well, sort-of-negative side, he threw 80 pitches, only 49 of which were strikes. That low pitch count must've been imposed since he was throwing on 3 days rest thanks to the abbreviated outing on Philly.

We knew coming into this year that at age 26, it was time for Purcey to shit or get off the pot. He's been excellent in AAA as the raw numbers indicate (57:19 K:BB in 50.2 IP, 1.95 ERA, and .194 BAA), but has looked very much out of his element in 2 big league starts. Hrm, if we've all been saying said that a 19-AB ML audition for Adam Lind was ludicrisly short, why would one jump to the premature conclusion that Purcey can't translate his minor league success into something more?

Does that mean he joins the rotation some time later this year or next? Maybe, but his development doesn't have to follow a predicable linear path for him to become a contributor to the big club in the short term. This familiar lefty didn't really find success until age 27 and didn't find his true calling until the following year. Maybe some low leverage relief innings would help with the rookie jitters. In any event, we continue to observe closely.

-- Johnny Was

The Morning Round-Up

I almost sprayed a moutful of coffee all over the monitor this morning when I saw the headline "Toronto Return Eyed By Josh" in the Boston Herald. This was a nearly tragic over-reaction, of course, since this Beantown paper was referring to one Josh Beckett as I was soon to discover.

But to me there's one Josh that stands at the head of the queue: Josh Towers, the Original Shit Leopard (tm). That Josh has just been placed on waivers by the Rockies, who have chosen to go with fellow shitballer and general bringer of bad mojo, Mark Redman, as their fifth starter. JT will probably end up sloshing around the minors for a few weeks or months before reemerging somewhere (San Diego?), as shit leopards tend to do.

I reiterate: Josh Towers is NOT coming back to Toronto.

Blair checks in on the injured Scotty Rolen and there's good and bad in the tea leaves. His doctor (and Blair) figure he won't be back playing until May, but Rolen himself is hinting at a much earlier return to game action:

"In 14 days, we'll take the pin out and we'll move on," Rolen said. "Dr. Graham seemed to think it would be a bigger problem throwing [than hitting] because the middle finger would be the last finger the ball would leave. The first four or five days after rehab, he's talking about picking up a bat to see how it feels. At the three-week point or more [after surgery], he thinks I should be ready to pick up a ball and see how it feels.

"He gave a four to six-week window from the time of surgery. Hopefully, we can be optimistic and cut it down the right way, the smart way. I don't want to be throwing my finger across the diamond."

Cathal Kelly sees him returning April 21 at home against the Tigers at the earliest (Wilner says the 25th), which makes me somewhat sheepish of my earlier boasts that he'd be back by the 15th... Note to self: expunge all Scott Rolen records from the archives.

Matt Stairs did his minor league tune-up yesterday and it appears that his hip woes will not force him to miss Opening Day. Don't be surprised, however, when he ends up playing less at the expense of Shannon Stewart in the early going. And maybe the middle going, too.

Brad Arnsberg is talking of an April 11 return for the Beej. This is, as always, not set in stone. But still, cautious enthusiasm.

Rance Mulliniks and Will are on the same page: these Jays are serious contenders. Chris Zelkovich of the Star also notes that Sportsnet's ratings for Jays games were down 19% last year. Ouch, perhaps that's some explanation as to why Uncle Ted has seemed like a gold-hoarding troll in regards to a payroll hike this offseason.

TV notes: the Jays-Phillies exhibition game at Chase tonight is indeed on TV and The Season: '08 Jays is on Sunday night at 7:30. Both on Sportsnet.

The painful wait until real games start is down to its final three days...

ELSEWHERE:

* Bosox RF JD "Nancy" Drew, who missed the entire season opening series in Tokyo due to tightness in his lower back, is still in discomfort but aims to be ready for real games next week. We'll see. Last year Bosox GM Theo Epstein invested $70 million (5 years) in Drew and $36 million (4 years) on Julio Lugo. Both sucked intensely last year and it's a pretty safe bet that neither will play up to his salary in '08.

-- Johnny Was

Say what?

I was checking out ESPN's site as I always do in the morning, when I found some potentially disturbing Jays news:

Rumor has it that although the Jays haven't yet made it official, they also will leave A.J. Burnett and Shaun Marcum back when the team returns north for the season. Burnett suffered a torn fingernail this spring and Marcum is recovering from knee surgery. Both still need more work to get ready for the season. No word yet on whether either of them will miss a start, but be prepared for it to happen, just in case.

What the fuck? I realize it's just a rumour, but why is this, in some random ESPN fantasy baseball news article, the first I'm hearing that Marcum & AJ may not come up with the club? You know, that's probably the first clue that these guys don't know what they're talking about. My bet is that this is some bullshit article because the fantasy experts are worried that Marcum may not be a good pick because he had knee surgery last year, and not because Marcum may actually spend time on the DL.

But just to cover my bases, in case they actually are right - the Jays wouldn't need a fifth starter (Litsch becoming the fourth) until April 10th or 12, so if it's a minor thing it's not the end of the world. But if this goes longer, our SP becomes a bit of a liability. Banks, Parrish, Wolfe...the internal options aren't great at this point.

I don't expect AJ to miss his start, and after re-reading the article I don't expect Marcum to miss much time. Quite frankly, ESPN should stick to letting these guys make up the rumours around here.

So yeah, I don't actually expect this to happen, but I figured since nobody brought this up it was worth pointing out.

The ESPN article also brings up some other Jays news, specifically on the health of Rolen & Ryan. With Rolen, it's the same ole two weeks and pain tolerance stuff. Oh boo hoo Rolen, it's just a nail and a fractured finger. Get over it. I have wrist tendonitis but you don't see me issuing a press conference getting someone else to cry on my behalf. Hell, I've been blogging for over 2-3 weeks with this damn thing and it hurts like a bitch to type. If I can do my job, you can still do yours. Suck it up.

Here's what they say about Ryan though:

Ricciardi also said injured reliever B.J. Ryan is out until "at least mid-April, in the best-case scenario" because of pain in his surgically repaired left (throwing) arm. The Jays intend to keep him in Florida as the team heads north to begin the season. Ryan is throwing on the side and "making strides," according to Ricciardi. Look for the Jays to be cautious with him, and even mid-April sounds optimistic to me.

Nothing really new here, shouldn't be back till mid-April. I still don't see him coming back till May at the earliest.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

As sad as the Beej's recent little setback makes me, one must keep some perspective. Coming into Spring Training I think most of us were expecting a May return, but a positive first outing and some belly fire quotes from the man himself allowed us to convince ourselves that he could conceivably be ready to rock at the end of this month. I guess we just collectively love the guy so much we got a bit ahead of ourselves.

JP's comments are all over the shop:

"If we have him for six months, great," Ricciardi said. "If we have him for five months, great. Four months, whatever we have him for, we're going to make sure we have him right. We can't have him with us right now if he pitches on Monday and we have to wait until Saturday to use him again.

"He knows that and he understands that. Another month maybe [until he's completely healthy]? Or a couple weeks? I don't know. We'll see how it goes."

So, we're talking 1-2 months of rehab? Grand... but, still, a blow we can sustain.

Opening Day, especially being there in person, is already better than Christmas, New Year's Eve and your birthday all wrapped up into one, but this year's edition just got that much better. Robbie Alomar is going to be elevated to Toronto's Level of Excellence in a pre-game ceremony and has indicated that should be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he'll go in as a Blue Jay. Catch da taste! And they were already planning to wear the powder blues!

You might be thinking, "Robbie had a great career, but is he a Hall of Famer?" My answer to you is a solid "maybe, probably yes." His most similar batter list at baseball-reference.com includes:

1. Barry Larkin (877)
2. Lou Whitaker (858)
3. Frankie Frisch (855) *
4. Julio Franco (850)
5. Ryne Sandberg (835) *
6. Alan Trammell (833)
7. Joe Morgan (830) *
8. Ted Simmons (822)
9. Charlie Gehringer (822) *
10. Ivan Rodriguez (817)

* denotes HoFer

Larkin is on his way in, Whitaker gets unfairly overlooked, but yes, this is a very strong group for him to be lumped in with. Pudge? He's played one career game at second, so that's how he snuck his way onto the list. Robbie will probably be the first Jay in the Hall. Mark it down, Donnie.

As a nod to those of you who value prospect lists, enjoy this profile of Brett Cecil, who's probably the top pitching prospect in the organization. Keith Law is very high on the dude and other non-hacks see him flying through the system in record time. Blair notes that "Tony LaCava, the Blue Jays assistant general manager, says it's not out of the question that Cecil could have made the Majors this year - as a reliever." Wilner describes his debut yesterday as "terrific":

And Cecil - wow. I thought his first inning was better than his second, but he and Brad Arnsberg disagreed. Talking to him after the game, he was calm and collected, and said that he was worried before the game that he’d be nervous and scared when he got out there, especially since he was facing his childhood favourites, the Yankees, who won their last World Series title when he was 14. But he said that he felt as though he belonged, that he wasn’t nervous or scared, just excited. The kid’s make-up is off the charts (check out how he was moving right-handed hitters off the plate - gorgeous), and his stuff is pretty good, too. He might even make it all the way up before this year is out.

Now, I still think it's Purcey we'll need to step up should we require some early, long-term minor league help in the rotation, but it's hard not to get caught up in the enthusiasm for another young southpaw.

The team previews over at Batter's Box at just fantastic in case you hadn't heard. The most recent one on the Brewers notes that for them, catching has been a problem akin to our revolving door at shortstop. We have lots of catching depth in the system. They have surplus starters by the boatload. We could probably use some starting depth. JP and Brewers GM Doug Melvin (who is Canadian) have a positive working relationship. It's just a matter of time before the trade talk starts up. You heard it here first.

Concerning a divisional rival now... Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com conceeds that the O's are going to be train-wreck bad in 2008, but not so bad that O's fans should all go jumping off the nearest bridge. And the reason for that is largely because of stud OF prospect Adam Jones, acquired (with others) in the Erik Bedard deal.

Still, one shouldn't skip past the tough slog ahead quite yet. This is Crasnick's projected O's lineup this year:

Brian Roberts, 2B (same old wholesome onfield goodness despite Mitchell Report accustations)
Melvin Mora, 3B (crappy, old, surly)
Nick Markakis, RF (star in the making)
Aubrey Huff, DH (scum of the earth)
Luke Scott, LF (a bit of pop, isn't going to make you forget Jeff Connine, though)
Ramon Hernandez, C (should rebound a bit)
Kevin Millar, 1B (oh man...)
Adam Jones, CF (hot prospect, but untested)
Luis Hernandez, SS (say what, now?)

Expect plenty of empty seats at Camden Yards this year.

ELSEWHERE:

* On the minor league starting depth front, recently-released ex-Nats ace John Patterson is probably a higher reward reclamation project than most of the Hail Mary retreads you read about; the former Expo was stellar in 2005 and an injury-shortened 2006, but has yet to regain the velocity he lost after forearm surgery.

* Second verse, same as the first: Brewers lefty Chris Capuano has been bandied about in trade rumours since his club has an embarassment of starting depth (though not necessarily quality, mind). The snag: he has elbow troubles that will probably keep him out of action past Opening Day. It's been a nagging thing for him and diminshes his trade value, though suitors haven't exactly been banging down Doug Melvin's door. He's a glass half empty/full kind of guy: there's both positive and negative in his career numbers. The computer models at fangraphs project him at a league average ERA over 150+ innings this year, which ain't not that bad...

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

I think my home is now buried under the Artic ice cap and the interweb is my only means of communication with the outside world. Seriously, the snow needs to STOP. We've got baseball to play in three weeks!

John Parrish gets the flashlight in the face this morning from the Sun and the Star. Parrish is a veteran lefty reliever who came to camp as a non-roster invitee. You might remember him from his tenure with the O's, or then again, you might not. I have made dismissive comments about him in the past chiefly because I'm skeptical that any major league pitching coach can "fix" a pitcher with control as awful as his (career BB/9 of 6.63, WHIP of 1.74).

To his credit, Parrish has done a fairly decent job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, and his K rates are very nice, if not his K:BB. His "stuff" has always been good, especially his slider. Yet I'm doubtful of the notion that he can transform himself into a useful 7th reliever (ok, that's an oxymoron) after only six weeks in Dunedin, but there's nothing wrong with stashing him at Syracuse and hoping he works it out.

As Ken Fidlin notes, this will turn some heads:

The 30-year-old journeyman left-handed pitcher, who is being groomed as a starter at the triple-A level, pitched three innings yesterday, striking out seven of the 10 batters he faced during a 4-3 Toronto win over the Detroit Tigers.

Here's what Gibby thinks of his new rhinestone cowboy:

"John's always been a tough pitcher to hit," manager John Gibbons said, "but he was sometimes a little scattered. When he came in here this year, our guys suggested some adjustments so he'd have a straighter line to the plate and it seems to have made some difference. "We're not looking at him for our rotation, but you never know how he might help us."

Alan Ryan contradicts Fidlin, saying that Parrish is being stretched out because youneverknow, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he'll be starting in AAA.

There you have it folks, one more name above Gus Chacin's under the heading "Minor League Lefties, break glass in case of emergency."

More Fidlin. I'm an unabashed fan of Matt Stairs and have been since he was an Expo, so I was rather delighted to see this long, readable un-Sun-like profile of the man I consider the club's 2007 MVP. It's not just what he does with the bat that impresses me, it's that I'm certain Uncle Matty is just the kind of guy who'd hold a stranger's legs while he (or she) was doing a keg stand. His swan song begins next season suiting up for Team Canada for another World Baseball Classic. Sweet!

The Beej continues to make progress.

ELSEWHERE:

* Ok, Ok, contain your excitement. Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, who grew morbidly obese over the off season gorging on ribs and Lone Star Ale, is now suffering from "back trouble" that may keep him out of action for awhile. Apparently he'd been bothered by back spasms for about a week. Normally, I'd agree with the sentiment that it's bad karma to wish injury on opposing players, but I also think we all know it's going to take some outside intervention for us to squeak into the playoffs this year. So, ya, I'm going to treat this as good news even if it means I might end up going to hell for it.

* In the same vein... I'm relatively superstitious, and seeing A-Rod say his goal for 2008 is playing in all 162 games rather than any specific offensive benchmarks, I have to wonder if the New York Post just put the injury jinx on him. A-Rod hasn't really been hurt in over ten plus seasons in the bigs, so you'd have to figure he's due for a big'un sometime on the horizon. That is the second karmic strike against me the morning.

-- Johnny Was