An in-depth look at Vernon's contract.

After my misguided trade idea post, it occurred to me that there might be value in really digging into the popular assumption that Vernon Wells is overpaid (relative to the market, of course - every guy in the majors is overpaid in the abstract sense).

There are several factors at work here. First, is the inherent inflation of the MLB salary market. Every year their are shocking new deal which raise the average annual salary. While the AAS is not a perfect indicator of the market for upper echelon talent, I think it's a fair measuring stick because one could argue that the pre-arbitration players serve as a drag on the average and that the inflation of free agent deals (or deal which buy up free agent years) is actually MORE than the rate at which the AAS rises.

Second, there is the difficulty of perfectly discerning a players value based on comparisons to other players when no two players are exactly the same. Admittedly we can only approximate here.

Third is the "projectability" of any player. How will Wells, or any other player, age and what effect will that have on his market value.

So obviously there are enough uncertainties to make absolute decelerations impossible. Still, there is much we can learn. From the start, let's establish the comparables. If you look at the careers of Vernon Wells and Tori Hunter through the year in which they turned 30 (Wells turns 30 next month) you will find a very good comparison. Using OPS+ as a measure:

age - VW - TH
23 -- 96 -- 71
24 - 132 -- 80
25 - 105 - 101
26 - 104 - 124
27 - 129 -- 98
28 -- 85 - 104
29 - 121 - 106

Looking at that you HAVE to conclude Wells is a better hitter to that point in his career, and while his defense has slipped enough that fair minded people would agree it's not on Hunter's level anymore, he does enjoy a good reputation as a defender. Hunter went on to post a 112 and a 122 before his free agent year. That is to say the year he was a free agent he was essentially the exact same hitter Wells was in 2008. and had a lesser history with the bat.

Hunter signed a contract with an average annual value of $18 million, the same as Wells' AAV, by the way. Also the same as Suzuki's and roughly the same as Andruw Jones and one million more than Alphonso Soriano's. If you look at the last three years before the contract signing of each of those players you'll find they are pretty similar offensive forces, albeit with obvious differences in their strengths.

So I think we can say with some confidence that the market for a hitter of that caliber in the current market is an AAV of roughly $18 million.

As for the projectability and aging issue, Hunter signed a five year deal at about 32.5 years of age, Suzuki had just passed his 34th birthday, Jones was coming up on his 31st, and so was Soriano. Not to get ahead of myself, but just to get it on the table, Wells will turn 33 the winter of his option.

Now, with those parameters on the table, let's look at market inflation in baseball salaries.

Here's a chart of the growth in the average salary in MLB over the last seven years, and the precentage increase over the previous year:
(the original, going back to 1989, can be found here)

2002	$2,383,235	5.2
2003	$2,555,476	7.2
2004	$2,486,609	(-2.7)
2005	$2,632,655	5.9
2006	$2,866,544	8.9
2007	$2,944,556	2.7
2008	$3,154,845	7.1

Now, let's average the annual inflation rate over those seven years. When you do that you get 4.9%. for the sake of simplicity, I'm going to round that up to 5% annually. (nine out of the last 13 years it has been higher than that).

Now, let's take a player who is "worth" (in the current market) $17 million annually beginning in 2008 and see where his salary goes if he stays with a market that's going up at a rate of 5% a year. In the first column is the year, in the second is his market value in that year (all other things being equal of course), in the third column is Wells contract value that year and in the fourth colum is Wells age:

'08 - $17.00 -- $9 - 29
'09 - $17.85 - $10 - 30
'10 - $18.74 - $21 - 31
'11 - $19.68 - $23 - 32
'12 - $20.66 - $21 - 33
'13 - $21.70 - $21 - 34
'14 - $22.78 - $21 - 35
'15 - $23.92
'16 - $25.12

I remind you that after the 2011 season, when Wells can opt out, he will be approximately 5 months older than Tori Hunter was when he signed his 5 year, $90 million deal. According to this math, if he had signed that deal in the winter of 2011, at the same place in the market adjusted for baseball inflation, it would have been worth $114 million (an AAV of $22.8 million).

So, what can we conclude from this information?

First, that the seven year deal, as it stands, is not in point of fact, over-market. On the contrary, a deal which starts in 2008 at $17 million and escalates at the same rate of the overal salary structure in MLB does would - over seven years - total over $138 million (Wells deal is worth $126 million).

Second, if Wells did opt out after 2011, the 4 years that the Jays actually would have gotten out of him would have cost them $63 million (AAV $15.75). Our "market value" for those four years is over $73 million (AAV over $18 million). In that scenario we still somewhat underpay.

Third, and again, all this assume Wells maintains his current level of productivity through at least 2011, when Wells gets ready to make his decision, he'd be looking at 3/$63 to stay, or the potential of a guarantee of $100 million or more over five seasons if he gets a contract that is market value.

So, simply put, if Wells remains a guy who is a 110 or better OPS+ player on average over the next three yerars, he will have a strong financial incentive to opt out and, short of Halladay-esque loyalty, will definitely do so. He could even afford to decline somewhat offensively over that time and the decision would still be tempting. Further, barring a decline to under 100, or a complete lack of ability to play CF by then, the Jays would not be overpaying if he did stay the full seven years (albeit, they may have enough depth that they sould still prefer to see him move on).

The obvious conclusion is that Wells' contract is not too high, but is in fact, at worst, fair market value in the current market.

Now, does that mean it was a good or smart deal? No, I don't think it was (and THAT is what makes it harder to move) for this reason: if you are going to guarantee over $100 million over the next seven years, you should be getting a player at a recognizable discount which offsets the built in risk that the player will decline in productivity. IF Wells continues at his current level of production for three more years, then the Jays signed a deal which paid off. If, on the other hand, he declines significantly, either with the bat or his defense becomes so bad he has to be moved out of CF in that time span, then the Jays are on the losing end of the deal. the point is, that the Jays have assumed ALL the risk and got no significant discount for doing so.

So it's not a "good" deal, but it is far from an overpayment either.

~WillRain

Never Mind!

It was bound to happen sooner or later. It happened last night. Sometimes i get caught up in a wave of explaining why an idea works and don't do my due diligence. One of the comments on my last post made me realize what I had failed to do - check to see if Ryan Theriot is for real (because getting a quality SS was the whole point).

Having looked at his minor league numbers, in my judgment, he's not. His OBP does seem to be marginally higher than Scutaro's, and he is younger, but the rest of his game is so thoroughly underwhelming that he's clearly not a target worth so much effort.

That being the case, there's far less motivation for the big crazy deal.

Plus, as a way of trying to redeem SOME value from this whole sorry exercise (a lesser man would just delete that post and pretend it never happened!), I should say again that i'm still inclined to think Wells will opt out IF he's still playing a competent CF in 2011. Maybe will anyway. To many people who think it's an awful deal forget market inflation. Every year the market goes up, Wells becomes less overpaid.

I'll expand on this thought in my next post.

Anyway, given my new understanding of Ryan Theriot, I withdraw the previous suggestion.

~WillRain

Wild and Crazy!

I have a trade idea.

Now, these sorts of ideas are always wildly unlikely to happen but I had this brainstorm and figured I'd share it with you . . . because this is my blog (in part) and I CAN. So there.

EDIT -

Given i have re-evaluated and recanted this idea, I did not want it taking up so much space on the front page, so I have removed the body of this post. In the interest of integrity, i have added that which I removed her to the comments on this post so you can still find it if for some reason you didn't see it originally and want to see what i'm talking about. The best thing though, is just to pretend this post never happened.

~WillRain

Deal, or no deal?

According to Ken Rosenthal, there's now a two-team competition for David Ecksien - the Arizona Diamondbacks want him to start at 2B (the Angels have been negotiating with the Jays for a reserve IF).

This can only be good news for the Jays because the winning team will have to give a bit more than they would have without competition. In theory, the Jays could deal two of their infielders but no one is suggesting that will happen.

There's really no way to speculate on the return. But the guy we are reportedly getting from Stairs (Fabio Castro) has some decent promise, albeit he's tiny and has control issues. Expect something similar for Eckstien.

Nice comeback win for the Jays today, the interesting thing is that for a big part of the season when you tune in and see the Jays are down 6-2 you move on to other activities. Not so much lately.
Tidbits of the Game:

* Wells hit his 15th HR, driving in 2 and drawing a walk. check this out-
Wells has played 54 games now, since May 1. In that time his line is prety damned impressive.
.319
.353
.545
.898

And if you take the counting stats x3 (since 54 games is 1/3 of a season)...
39-3-33-129

If we can ever just get him to do that for 162 games on a regular basis.

*Newest Jay Jose Batista finally got off the snide, going 2/4 and driving in runners in both cases, including the tying run of the game. Hopefully the pressure will be off some now.

~WillRain

So what now?

In all of the trade rumour articles, AJ is consistently mentioned as "the top starting pitcher" available in trades. If that was the case, you'd have to believe the Phils would have been willing to offer Cardenas in a package for Burnett.

Obviously the big difference between AJ and Blanton comes down to two things - club control and money. Blanton costs 3.7 million this year, of which the Phils will pay a prorated 1.5-1.8 million. They also control him for another two years, which is a huge plus. AJ would cost them a prorated 6 or so million dollars, while having the ability to opt out at the end of the year.

But for a team that currently tied for first place, you'd think acquiring the superior talent would be more valuable to the Phils. If they were to sign AJ to a long-term deal, in order to avoid the opt out, they'd have Pat Burrell's 12 million coming off the books in 2009. Not that it's a good move to let Burrell go, but I get the feeling they just don't appreciate his value and won't pay him what he's worth. While Will & Johnny have recently suggested Manny as a DH for next year, I'd like to suggest Pat Burrell. He's usually got an OBP near 400 and a slugging above 500 - he's the bat this team needs.

But back to AJ and the Phils - if they wanted to win, it'd make more sense to go with the guy who has a 108 career ERA+, and is capable of putting up a 115-119 ERA+ in a home park that is known to be good to hitters. They wouldn't have to worry too much about home and away splits like they do with Blanton, who's been a career 4.78 ERA pitcher away from the pitchers park in Oakland (compared to the 3.79 in Oakland for his career).

Blanton has a 100 career ERA+ - he's an average starting pitcher. He's not a strong GB pitcher, so he'd be bound to give up more HR's in Philly. He'll be an upgrade over Adam Eaton, which I guess makes them a better team, but upgrading from horrible to merely shitty is nothing to be happy about. Blanton's still going to cost them games because of his inability to strike out hitters, and his reliance on defense (for which the Phils aren't that good).

What does this mean for the Jays? Despite all of AJ's talents, it's very likely he won't be traded before the deadline. JP has never made that big trade at the deadline, and he's had several candidates which could have been traded (Wells in 2006 before he signed the contract extension would have been creative). If the Phils were willing to give up a solid 2B prospect for Blanton, and not for AJ, it paints a pretty clear picture on how high clubs are on Burnett.

If the Jays really want to trade Burnett, I think it might help if they give a 72 hour window to give the team a chance to amend the opt out by adding extra $$ for AJ. No, they shouldn't have to do it, but that opt out is going to be the biggest reason why AJ has a better chance of opting out when the seasons over than he does of being traded. You do that (the 72 hour window), and you get the right to ask for superior prospects. And if you can get the extra prospects, than it's worth it to let the team talk to him before hand.

Twitchy.

Mench is back

With Wells out for the next month, Kevin Mench has been recalled to take his spot. I'm not going to get into how stupid it would be to bring up Snider now, but I'm glad they called up Mench.

This team is still struggling significantly against Southpaws and needs another strong RH hitter in the lineup. The Jays are 30th in the majors in OPS vs Southpaws, so I think it's really important to give Mench a second chance.

One of the biggest problems in the lineup is Lyle Overbay with a 241/300/277 (577 OPS) batting line against lefties. Overbay has been solid against right handed pitching, but he needs to be platooned at this point vs lefties. Putting Wilkerson at 1B and Mench in RF (or vice-versa) should be an offensive upgrade and give this team a chance vs lefties. I'll admit that I was wrong about Mench, and that he hasn't been a big help against lefties yet. But it's only been 42 at bats, and I have to believe that given a second chance that he'll make the most of it.

Earlier in the year I mentioned how Eckstein was traditionally stronger vs RHP and weaker vs lefties, but this year he's been the opposite. He's got an 830 OPS vs lefties, and without looking up the numbers I'd bet he's one of the best hitters on the team against left handed pitchers. While his number's as a DH haven't been impressive to date, it's been very creative by Cito to use him in that spot so far. The bonus is that McDonald gets to play against lefties, and I believe his bat will improve only against left handed pitching as time goes on. Plus with Mac at short and Rolen at third, the defense on the Jays left side of the infield is bordering on historically good.

Twitchy.

Wells out 4-6 weeks

If there was any remaining sliver of hope for this season, the twin injuries to McGowan and Wells have now sealed the fate of the 2008 Jays. McLeod at The Globe & Mail reports that Wells has a "grade 2 strain" of his left hamstring. In the same post he reports that Dustin McGowan has no NEW tearing in his shoulder so there is much more hope that it is simply inflamed and with rest he can return, but that would still be at least a month away.

Hopefully the Jays take that as a warning shot regarding pitch counts, as Twitchy has pointed to, but it's still also good news that he doesn't, apparently, have a major issue. In the mean time, it seems almost certain now that David Purcey and John Parrish will both get regular turns over the next month (assuming an AJ deal coincides more or less with Marcum's hoped-for return). Should Marcum's injury keep him out longer, there will be a very interesting discussion of who else might join the team - and you can bet Brett Cecil's name will come up a lot.


The Jays have not revealed who they will add in Vernon's absence, but, interestingly, McLeod asks the following question:

Why not bring up Travis Snider, their No. 1 pick in the draft in 2006? He's hitting .286 in Triple A at Syracuse and leading the team with 13 home runs.

With the way this season is turning for Toronto why not bring him up and start him in the outfield like the Jays are doing with Adam Lind?

At the very least it would give the fans something to cheer about.

I'm not at all sure JP is willing to do that yet - especially given that Snider is not, in point of fact, in AAA Syracuse but in AA New Hampshire - and as anxious as I am to see Snider in the bigs it is legitimate to question his how his strikeout total would translate over such a jump. Conversely, unless you are pining for the return of Shannon Stewart, Kevin Mench or Buck Coats, there's not an obvious stopgap alternative.

My guess is that we WON'T be seeing Snider yet.

~WillRain

The Roundup Jr

There were a lot of negatives in last nights game, but I want to talk about the positive first. I think a lot of people missed it - Curtis Thigpen looked terrific behind the plate. I don't know if he's ever caught Marcum before, but he did a phenomenal job of game calling for Marcum. Yeah, Marcum's a pretty dominant pitcher, who threw a hell of a game, but Thigpen still did a great job behind the plate. He framed a lot of pitches that were outside the zone according to the Seattle pitch tracker for strikes. He blocked the plate extremely well, and he showed off a very nice arm on the double play failed bunt. I know it's one game, but I was very impressed with Thigpen.

He was clearly overmatched against Felix, but pretty much everybody in the majors is going to feel that way. I'll give a ton of credit to Felix for absolutely pwning young Thigpen with those filthy, filthy 2 seem fastballs. The fact that Thigpen hasn't started a game in 10-15 days also played a part in his rusty swing, but as far as I could tell I thought he did a terrific job as the catcher. I'm not quite sure why the Jays are so hesitant to use him as a C going forward, but I think he'd be a solid option.

As I discussed last night with eyebleaf, the Jays are a team that lacks in the fundamental abilities. This team doesn't need a new manager, it needs a little league coach! While some would blame last nights game on Ryan, and you'd have good reason too, I think last nights game was lost by the one and only Vernon Wells. He's been doing real well since he came back so I'm not too pissed off at him (especially after praising him so much in my last post), but it's the simple things that Wells and the rest of the offense aren't doing.

For example, the 6th innings - Eck & Inglett on, one out. All he needs is to put the ball into the OF, and boom, sac fly. A run scores, the Jays can move a runner up to third with 2 out, so that a base hit can score the third run (or a passed ball). Fundamental baseball at it's best. But he didn't do that, so instead of the game being 2-1, and theoretically 2-2 heading into the 10th, the Jays lost. If the Jays are going to lose this year, it won't be because of their inability to hit with RISP. It'll be the fact that the Jays simply cannot do the fundamental things in baseball that win you ballgames.

Couple of notes on the M's - how does McClaren (SP?) still have a job? What kind of retard bunts with Raul Ibanez? This is on a level of Dusty Baker trying to bunt with Adam Dunn kind of bad. How was he not fired mid-game for this?

And is anybody else pissed off about Miguel Cairo showing up the Jays? I get it, he's happy he laid down a bunt in the first game, and that he scored in the third, but he's acting like he was about to win the World Series every time he did something right. You're a 75 OPS+ utility player, Cairo. Get over yourself. I was actually more pissed about Cairo's little claps and jumping for joy than I was about losing.

Elsewhere:

Jays caught a bit of a break heading into their series with the Cubs, as LF Alfonso Soriano is going to be out of commission for a while. According to the report:

"Star leadoff hitter Alfonso Soriano could miss six weeks with a broken bone in his left hand after he was hit by a pitch from Atlanta’s Jeff Bennett on Wednesday night."

The Cubs have a bit of OF depth, and I figure the Cubs could use Pie or Murton in his absence.

Ken Griffey's #600 HR ball is causing a lot of legal issues. Sorry bud, but in my book you get an E1, and you've lost possession of the ball. Or you could call it Fan Interference.

HGH wasn't the only thing Andy Pettitte learned how to do from Roger Clemens. Apparently he won't let the Yankees know if he's pitching next year or not till after the season. I can't wait to hear more stories about this all year. But I guess they have to talk about something else when Joba isn't pitching.

Big Papi has decided to change his name to Big Daddy, as David Ortiz was sworn in as a US citizen.

Looks like Elijah Dukes is starting to get back to his old ways. No, it's nothing criminal, he just had a 'heated argument' with Manny Acta. It seems pretty meaningless now, but that kid is a ticking time bomb. And at age 24, with a 207/324/322 batting line, teams are going to start being less likely to give him a second chance.

I'm not gonna be here from Friday through the weekend, so unless Will does the Roundup Lite this'll probably be the last one till Monday. Have a nice weekend everyone.

Twitchy.

The Roundup Jr.

As Johnny mentioned earlier, he's gonna be away for the next little bit, so I'm going to try my hand at doing the Roundup.

I talked about last night's game in my latest post, but what I didn't mention is that Vernon Wells is doing the impossible - ever since he's come back from his injury, he's been playing up to his contract. It's only been 16 at bats, but the franchise player has 7 hits in his past 16 AB's for a 438 BA. Funny enough, his OBP is below his BA, at 412, while his slugging is an epic 875. He's making up for lost time, and I can't imagine where we would have been without him the past week. He's been in the middle of seemingly ever run scoring opportunity, and that's the way it should be.

As I mentioned in the comments in the same post, Wilkerson is heating up a bit. But as John Brattain points out, the Jays are essentially dead last in OPS in LF & DH:

"It’s not often league average would represent such an upgrade at not one, but two positions. In both cases you’re not looking for a decathlete—just two guys who can hit at league-average levels, one of whom is mobile enough not to require a wheelchair in the near future. The Toronto Blue Jays are literally wasting two lineups slots that are traditionally used to provide offense"

It's the sad truth. The Jays have the worst LF/DH combo in the league, and these are the spots you need your best two offensive players. The Jays are pretty strong up the middle in Wells & Hill, and if they could combine their strength up the middle with quality players at offensive minded positions like LF & DH, the offense could prove to be above average. Even with league-average players as Brattain suggests, the Jays would be a better team. Even though Wilkerson is heating up, he's not a solution.

Yesterday the Jays signed their first round pick, David Cooper, according to bluejays.com. To be honest, I'm somewhat on the fence for this pick. I would have prefered SS Anthony HeWitt (24th to the Phils), who's a 5 tool high risk high reward player. The other player I wanted was SP Christian Friedrich, who went 25th to the Rockies. I don't know much about Cooper, but I don't like the idea of drafting a 1B who isn't a Mark Teixeira type bat. However, I do hope that he succeeds and proves that he was worthy of the first round pick.

This afternoon the Jays face off against the M's in the final game of the series, and it has the potential for being a spectacular pitching duel - and not just because neither club can hit! Felix Hernandez faces off against Shaun Marcum @ 12:37 PM. Both Felix and Marcum have pitched better than their record suggests (4-5 and 5-3 respectively), although Felix's 1.38 WHIP has got to be a little troublesome for the M's. It's hard to remember sometimes that the perennial breakout candidate is only 22 years old, but he hasn't improved much over last year. His BAA is better than last year, but the control is significantly worse.

Elsewhere:

Rough day for the Braves - Glavine goes on the dl with a left elbow strain, and he may not be back anytime soon.

“The injury concerns me quite a bit,” Glavine said. “It’s been hurting me for over a month and it’s not getting any better. I think only one other time in my career, I’ve had an issue with my elbow.”

Definetly not what the Braves want to hear with Smoltz already out.

The Tigers pull a Halladay on Dontrelle Willis by optioning him down to class A in the hopes that he can figure it out. Dumbrowski is a good GM, but signing Willis to a 30 million dollar deal before he'd thrown a pitch is going to come back to haunt him. Willis hasn't been the same since his 2005 season, where he lost in the voting of the Cy Young award to Chris Carpenter.

Ken Rosenthal chimes in with a theory on Dontrelle's struggles.


"One theory circulating among the Tigers is that left-hander Dontrelle Willis is much more muscular than he was during his 22-win season in 2005, making it much more difficult for him to repeat his mechanics. Willis requires great flexibility to achieve the contortion in his delivery; he might need to work with a strength and conditioning coach to regain the suppleness he once had."

Makes sense, but I have a different theory. Willis was a monster between ages 20-22, both in the minors and the majors. In the minors, his career high for innings thrown in a year was 157 2/3 as a 20 year old over multiple levels. As a 21 year old in both the minors & the majors, he threw 197 innings that year. He also pitched in the playoffs, for a total of 12 2/3 innings. Add that to what he threw in the regular season, and you're looking at 209 2/3 innings pitched as a 21 year old. That's an increase of 52 innings over his previous career high at age 21. The generally accepted limit for increasing a young pitchers workload is 30 innings. Then, at age 22, he threw 197 innings. Not bad, and I can't complain. But at age 23, in his almost-Cy season, he threw 236 1/3 innings. 20-30 years ago, I don't think anybody would have had an issue with him throwing that many innings. But in the age of pitch counts and innings restrictions to have your 23 year old ace throw 236 innings? That's almost criminal, and I think the high innings put on young Dontrelle's arm effectively Gustavo Chacined his career.

With my theory, there's essentially no chance the move to class A helps Willis. You kinda hope he finds his way again, cause he seems like a good role model for both African Americans & baseball itself.

Twitchy.

Condolences to my fellow Jays fans

As I'm sure you've heard by now, Armando Benitez and the Jays parted ways today. I don't feel like quoting the article, but suffice to say the Jays told Benitez "it's not you, it's me". Brian Wolfe was brought up to replace him.

Oh, Armando, we hardly knew you. I remember it like it was yesterday - that game against the Orioles that you blew by giving up a 2 run HR, costing us the game (note: it was yesterday). I'll always cherish your return to the National League - you gave up a walk, and an ER in 1/3 of an inning. And that time again Minnesota - your Jays debut - when you gave up another HR and a walk in 1/3 of an inning. Oh Armando - fly free! I'm sure you'll find a team again! The Yankees need an aging MR to fill in for Joba, and you'd be the perfect fit!

In other Jays news - Vernon Wells is back, to which I can only say WTF!!11?!!111? I didn't expect him back till late August, so this is both a good sign for the Jays and a bad sign for my medical career.

Alex Rios continues to stink up the joint by hitting 269/345/346 over his past 26 AB. I don't think the pressure of his contract has gotten to him, but something is clearly wrong with Rios. Is he coasting because of the contract as John Brattain suggests?

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but would it kill the Jays to use Stewart's sprained ankle as an excuse to bring Lind up? Stew's one for his past 21 - Lind went what, 1 for 19 and was optioned to AAA. Look for Stewart to be DFA in the next couple of days as the Jays don't appreciate slumping offensive players.

Twitchy.

Ok, NOW I'm worried . . .

So, Vernon Wells is apparently out until, most likely, the All Star Break. And, by the way, Jeremy Accordo joins him on the DL today too. That's four players shipped to the DL in 3 days if you are keeping score at home.

Even the "irrational" optimist that I was on opening day, I knew this team had one of the smaller margins for error in the league. While I was convinced (and still am) that our frontline players were collectively as good as anyone's, there's only so much talent you can put on the shelf and still make that claim. Having Vernon Wells' bat replaced in the lineup by Brad Wilkerson's is a pretty massive blow.

The Jays called up "ShuttleBug" Inglett a day after sending him down, along with Armando Benitez to fill out the roster . . .

(I pause briefly to again consider the plight of Brandon League)

. . . and this forces me to conclude that the Jays saw something in Lind when he was up here that they think needs addressing with every day work in the minors - either that or Shannon Stewart has incriminating photos of JP in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.

So, what are we looking at for the next six to eight weeks? A Stewart - Rios - Wilkerson OF every single night that's what. (ugh!)

Mike Wilner suggests that perhaps Wilkerson gets the leadoff duties for a while with the need for Rios to take up some of Vernon's slack (not to mention his massive suckage since he started leading off which may or may not be a coincidence) but I'm wondering if the Jays are not going to presume that Stewart isn't going to hit well anywhere but leadoff . . . So not to dispute the oracle but so maybe you see something like this:

1. Stewart
2. Wilkerson
3. Rios
4. Rolen
5. Stairs/Mench
6. Overbay
7. Hill
8. Zaun
9. (SS)

Am I the only one who trembles in fear at having our two potentially weakest hitters in the one and two hole? Oh well, it's not like our run production can possibly get WORSE and hopefully either they will somehow manage to hit, or one of them will eventually get ditched for Lind or for a player acquired via trade.
The challenge is for the 3-8 hitters above to wake up and produce enough runs to keep us competitive until the hoped for cavalry arrives.

All that said, even I am beginning to have my doubts. It's one thing to have a Stewart or a Wilkerson or a Benitez as a role player on your team, but if they become important players, you need to be getting some breaks and right now, we just are not getting any breaks at all. The freakish hitting slump continues, and it's gotten to the point where I have to ask if there's some sort of bad karma thing going on here? Is it really SO wrong to hate the Yankees?

~WillRain

Well Shit

I've been pretty busy lately, but after seeing Wells' injury, I have to say that despite my lack of an MD, and with keeping in mind the fact this is totally unofficial and my opinion, that Wells is done until a best case scenario of August, and late August at that.

Recently I hurt my wrist in a similar fashion as Wells - landing with all my weight on my wrist. I managed to cushion the blow on snow, and managed to deflect some of the weight, so that I didn't crush my wrist like he did. Still, I pulled a tendon, and it took me over a month to heal. And I heal pretty damn fast, and faster than the doctor's estimated time of 2 months.

Wells, on the other hand, looked like he absolutely destroyed his wrist. A break would be a good thing, as it would mean the bone would fully heal and there wouldn't be many long-term issues. A sprain, or a pulled muscle, would be the worst possible news. Soft tissue injuries (sprains) never fully heal, so he'd have to deal with lingering pain every now & then for the rest of his life.

The reason I suggest August - the bone has to heal, and that might just take a month. But after that, he'll have extreme difficulty squeezing, or holding, or applying pressure with the wrist. I know it took me a month of using a tensor band to be able to function, and even now my wrist isn't 100% up to strength. So I'm thinking since Wells got it even worse, he'll be out 2-3 months, and even then he won't be 100%.

As I was writing this my friend sent me this link from TSN:

Wells suffered a fractured left wrist diving for a ball during Friday's game against Cleveland. He is expected to miss six to eight weeks.

Accardo is sidelined with right forearm tightness. The righthander is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA.

Both have been placed on the 15-day DL.

As I suspected, the injury would take around 2 months to heal. I assume that's the physical injury - he won't have any strength in his wrist, and I will guarantee right now he will have zero power when/if he returns in July or August. Look at Overbay or Derrick Lee of the Cubs as other wrist injury victims who took a year to gain strength back.

So don't kid yourselves - Wells is done for the year. He may be back in uniform on the active roster, but he'll be a glove man, and not an offensive player. I say this not out of pessimism, but from personal experience. I really feel for Wells as I understand what he's going through, and it's not going to be pleasant.

I haven't been following the Jays much, so the Accardo injury was a surprise. But at least we have some depth, and ironically it comes in the form of Benitez:

To fill the roster spots, the Blue Jays recalled infielder Joe Inglett from Syracuse and selected the contract of pitcher Armando Benitez from Syracuse.

So yeah, Inglett comes up as a utility guy, and Benitez comes up as the new RP. I figured Benitez would have little value, but he might be a key guy if this keeps up. Interesting that Wolfe stays down, but I mean Benitez would have been a FA had he not been brought up so it makes sense.

Wilkerson has new value in that he can be a capable 4th OF, able to play all 3 OF positions and 1B. Although he'll probably start in RF, which will be disappointing at some level if he plays like he did in Seattle. Lind needs to be looked at and given the job for the rest of the season sooner, rather than later. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening till June/July when we're out of the race, and Wilkerson & Stewart are batting 240 with a 669 OPS.

The Wells news is just killer though. I'm not buying 6-8 weeks, because IMO that's only for the physical damage to heal, and not the time frame for him to regain any meaningful amount of strength. Like I said before, he might somehow make the active roster in Late July or Early August, but he'll be totally ineffective with the bat because his wrist is going to have no strength. Vibrations from the bat, squeezing of the glove - that's gonna hurt like a bitch.

I really wish I had better news for all of you. We should all buy some of Colbert's Wrist Strong bracelets for Wells, cause he's gonna need em...

Twitch.

Oops, I did it again!

This loss was pretty brutal, and I shouldn't be posting after it cause I'll probably say a few things I'll regret....

Am I the only one absolutely frustrated with Vernon Wells? It's his third error of the season, and by my count the 7th or 8th time on a routine ground ball it somehow bobbles out of his glove. Maybe it's a wet grass or a bad hop once or twice, but this is getting ridiculous. I don't know if it's a lack of focus, or if he's seriously having trouble fielding somewhat routine plays, but it's getting out of hand now. Watch Wells going forward on routine plays, because I'm positive he's booting a ton of routine plays and not getting called out for it.

This time it cost Doc and the Jays a huge opportunity to gain ground in the AL East. I'll give credit to Lester - he pitched a good game. But Doc was just incredible. His curve, his two seemer, they were as good as they've ever been. He was the definition of an ace in that game. And yet, he comes out with a loss.

The Jays got 4 BB and couldn't do anything with it. When a pitcher hands you so many bases, it's unacceptable not to score on them.

I really got a bad vite when I saw Halladay leave at the end of the game. He was beyond pissed, and I think his frustration went beyond this game. That should count as his fourth straight complete game, and yet he's lost 3 of the 4 games.

Despite all the failed attempts at driving in runners, this game was pretty much over when Pedroia absolutely robbed Wells of a hit in the 8th. If the Jays had built any momentum, it was gone and transferred to Boston.

Tabler & JC brought up a good point earlier in the game. This team will live & die by how Vernon Wells does. And I think it was pretty obvious tonight.

Twitchy.

Fantasy Baseball Week 3

The Toucans Of Whoopass were defeated in a landslide last week. The epic beatdown was issued by The Huck Fleners, and the score for the week was a horrific 8-2-2 in favour of Huck. The Toucans didn't hit, and they didn't pitch, which sounds a hell of a lot like the Jays.

The knockout punch was delievered by Todd Wellemeyer. We have a moves limit (which I hate, by the way), restricting assholes like me from streaming position players and starters every day. Anyways, I picked him up, but then dropped him upon learning Jon Rauch would be closing. We lost Rafael Soriano to injury, so I panicked and grabbed Rauch, while dropping Todd. Huck, in his infinite wisdom, picked him up. As fate would have it, Matt Cain would face off against Wellemeyer. And then this happened...

Troy Glaus is stinking up the joint, so I grabbed Votto who's on fire to be the utility guy. He's probably going to start now that he's shown Dusty that he refuses to clog the bases (1 BB, 50 AB). So I figure if he's got a spot in the lineup, and he's convinced Baker he won't clog the bases, he'll probably get a spot in the middle of the lineup. Atta boy Votto - fool him into thinking you're not going to clog the bases to get your job back, and then get back to your patient ways.

For Week 4, the Toucans face off against ShaveThoseSideburns. The Toucans fell to 8th after that bitchslap by Huck, so winning this week will put us back in the top 6.

Last night's Jays game...

I don't hate Gibbons - I'll joke about firing him every now and then, but he's not as bad as most fans think. But yesterday he had some pretty weird decisions, as noted earlier by Johnny.

Look, I get it - Wells needs an occasional day off. But having just released a guy who was your fulltime DH, would it not have made a ton of sense to just DH Wells? Doing that makes the lineup a hell of a lot deeper, and prevents one of the super-scrubs from hitting in his place. An OF of Stewart - Rios - Stairs is significantly better in every possible way then a Stew-Rios-Inglett OF.

But then in the 6th, as Johnny mentions, he brings Marcum out after throwing damn near 100 pitches. And he goes to Tallet for an inning and a third. Tallet, the guy who's pitched a shitload of innings to this point, and can be relied upon in key situations...you brought in him against RH hitters, when you're down by 4? Isn't that what Frasor was for?

I thought it'd make just a tiny little bit more sense to use Frasor for two, and then bring in Camp or something. Save Tallet for when we can actually win a game.

DH Ideas

Johnny brought up some other names of potentially useful players who could be used to boost the offense now that Thomas is gone. A name I'd like to throw out there is Kevin Mench. Texas signed him to a MLC - assuming he can still hit LHP like he always could, I think it'd be a terrific idea to send them a pen arm or something for Mench. As recently as last year, he posted a 901 OPS against LHP, and for his career he's got a 924 OPS vs LHP. A Stairs/Mench platoon, a Lind/Mench platoon, or even an Overbay/Mench platoon would be a huge upgrade for this team against LHP. And considering he's on a MLC, it's not like we'd have to throw a good pen arm their way.

Twitchy.

Thomas Mad, Thomas Released

I've been pretty busy lately, and I'll admit I haven't been following much Jays news. Ok, I knew Thomas was pretty pissed, but imagine my surprise today at work when I find Thomas has been released.

There's really nothing I can add to the situation that hasn't already been said. But I wouldn't be doing my duty (haha) if I didn't at least weigh in on the situation. So with that in mind....

Thomas' bat speed may have declined. I don't know that for sure - maybe it did, maybe it didn't. That isn't the issue to me. I think he could have eventually hit his way out of it, as he has the past few years. Yesterday, I thought benching him was a brilliant tactic to light a fire under the slugger's bulky ass. Piss him off enough that he'll get aggressive, and crush the first pitch he sees into the CF windows.

What I do know, is that Thomas' tendencies, and overall game plan prevented him from coming out of a slump. I love how he's still got terrific discipline, an elite batting eye, capable of taking a ton of pitches and getting into hitters counts. The problem, is that pitchers were exploiting his patience by getting ahead in the count knowing he would not attack the first pitch. The Texas game, for example, where Padilla threw 2 fastballs down the middle, as Frank took, being patient. Then he strikes out on one out of the zone, in a pitchers count.

You see, when you're in a slump, taking pitches is the worst possible outcome. Teams aren't afraid of you, and get ahead in the count. Once this happens, you're down 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and you feel like the at bat is over. By not being aggressive, and getting behind in the count, Thomas was always hitting in a brutal situation, where he'd never get a pitch to hit.

Let me say that I agree 100% with benching a player who isn't performing. The message it sent was play or rot on the bench, and it's a wake up call to a team that needed one. So kudos on JP & Gibbons for having the cohones to do it.

But releasing Thomas? I don't know. I just don't know yet. It helps the defense if Lind is called up to play LF. Bad as he may be, he's better than Stairs. It helps the bench - when Thomas is off we're essentially down a position player, as he can't play in the field. It probably gives the team more balance against RHP, as Thomas only hit to the tune of a 796 OPS vs RHP, so odds are even Stairs would be a bit of an improvement going forward on offense. Frank was a lefty killer, and the Jays should still be ok against lefties. And if they're not, well, I'd rather be strong against RHP, which is 75% of the leagues pitching.

I think earlier in the blog, Thomas was mentioned as a clubhouse cancer. Here's Wells' take on the situation:

Center fielder Vernon Wells praised management for finding a quick resolution to the situation.

“I think it’s better for (Thomas), too,” Wells said. “He gets a chance to have more time to possibly pick up with another team, with us it may give some of our younger guys a chance to come up.

“We haven’t been the best team so far this season. We definitely have some improvements to make.”

Sounds like the team may be better off without Thomas, though I may be reading too much into it.

Still, I hope this becomes a defining moment for the team, which will bring them together and also act as a wake up call that poor performance will be be tolerated by no one. For a team that underpeforms like no other, and plays down to their competition, this is a huge opportunity for the Jays. I really hope this brings everyone together, and ends up becoming a positive through an extended winning streak, one for which the Jays haven't put together in years.

I hope Thomas signs with a team and shows that he can still perform, but more importantly, I hope that the Jays are a better team at the end of the day.

Twitchy.

Spring Training Notes

It's always nice to see players rebound after an injury. Spring training can be an indication of whether or not a player has successfully recovered from said injury. Unless they're doing poorly, in which case spring training is meaningless....

Lyle Overbay is off to a wicked start. In 35 AB he's hitting 371/436/514, and he's been one of the most dangerous bats to date for the Jays (that's not saying much though...). The biggest thing for me, is that out of his 13 hits, 5 are doubles. He hasn't hit a HR yet, but if he's hitting a ton of doubles, it's a great sign.

Scott Rolen's another player coming off an injury plauged season. While I refused to believe him when he claimed his shoulder was better, the numbers speak for themselves. In 26 AB, he's hitting 346/469/615. The significant thing for me is out of his 9 hits, he's hit 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So it's not like he's getting cheap little hits, he's crushing the ball. And he's showing some nice plate discipline with 5 BB to 5 K's.

Following the Stewart-Johnson debate, nobody has pulled away or proven they deserve a spot. Johnson is hitting 265/316/324, while Stew is hitting 222/323/407. Stew has performed better to date, but I wish I could find some RHP/LHP splits. Stew does have 4 BB to 0 K, whereas Johnson has 0 BB and 4K. He's not doing much to disprove his critics, and unless he makes significant strides the Jays are likely to non-tender him. A shame, cause I'm thinking this one could bite us in the ass.

Everyone seems to be talking about how scrappy Eckstein is, but nobody is talking about how crappy Eckstein has been. He's hitting 161/278/323 so far. He hasn't struck out, and he's got a good OBP differential from his BA, but it's not a good start. Yes, I know it's spring training, but nobody seems to be talking about Eckstein's stats, so I thought it was worth bringing up...

Aaron Hill has been one of the best players to date. He's hitting 429/500/536. The slugging isn't the number that should get your attention - it's the OBP. Opposing pitchers would try to intentionally walk Hill and he'd swing at the pitch. But he's walked a couple times, and that's a good sign going forward. If he walks more in the regular season, he'll have a shot at being in the top tier of 2B in the league.

Wells hasn't been hitting so well, but he's a slow starter. Again, it's only spring training, but you have to be a little worried that Wells is only hitting 257/278/400. He's hitting for very little power, and he's not hitting for average. Knowing he's a slow starter, coming off major surgery, the Jays should bat him at the bottom of the order until he shows he's recovered and productive. They should ease him back in, rather than push him to be the best offensive player on the team. Coming off major surgery, the only thing I want him tearing is the cover off the ball when he launches it into the stands.

As for the pitching, I'm not going to focus on the ERA. The main thing is that guys like Accardo, McGowan, Doc, Litsch & Marcum have solid K:BB rates. I am somewhat concerned about AJ's 5:6 K:BB ratio, but it is spring training and he's without his curveball. Speaking of which, the season starts in a week and a half an AJ still hasn't thrown the curve. I'm extremely paranoid, so I think this is something worth monitoring.

Twitchy.

The Scrappy Analysis

First off, I want to apologize to everyone. Lately I've been doing a lot of "reporting", and that's not really what I'm here to do. Johnny does a great job of it, but it's not really my forte. My strength here is in analyzing stuff. Crunch the numbers, go off on random tangents, and see where it leads me. It's when I do that, that I'm on top of my game.


So with that in mind, I thought I'd take a deeper look at the scrappiest, most dirtbaggiest player we have. Buckle your seat belts boys and girls, we're gonna find out all of David Eckstein's deepest, darkest secrets!

What we do know about Eckstein to date is that he's a slightly below average SS, both at fielding and offensively. Eckstein is a middle of the road SS in terms of ZR, so he'll be an upgrade over Clayton but an obvious downgrade over J-Mac. Offensively, he's got a career 89 OPS+ and last year he was at 93 with a batting line of 309/356/382.

This isn't really news to anybody. Eckstein's always been overrated by media and fans alike. Calling him a good hitter is being generous at this point, because he's below league average. He is a perfect fit for the Jays though, who need a hitter who can simply get on base against RHP. It's no secret the Blue Birds struggled against RHP last year. Last year we were 27th in the majors with a 715 OPS against RHP - the biggest problems were an inability to hit RHP (248 BA) and get on base as a result (315 OBP). Eckstein's strengths are BA and OBP, specifically against RHP. It's really a match made in heaven.

What is interesting, however, is that during the offseason many writers often suggested the Jays did not make a significant offensive upgrade. That couldn't be further from the truth, and here's why. Last season, Jays SS, be it Ray Olmedo, J-Mac, Clayton, or anybody else who logged time at SS combined to...hit...to the tune of a 598 OPS. That OPS was dead last in the majors, just behind Boston. For all we made fun of Lugo and the Red Sox SS's, they were .035 points better than us, with a 633 OPS at SS.

Now, if we use last season's base of how David Eckstein will perform, he'll have a 738 OPS. Even if he only plays 120-130 games, that's an incredible upgrade. In fact, compared to last year's SS, it'll be an upgrade of .140 points of OPS.

That sounds like a lot, doesn't it? Well, think of it this way...

Remember how much Wells sucked last year? Remember how Awesome Rios was last year? Last year Wells had a 706 OPS, and Rios had an 852 OPS. You know what the difference between these two guys were in terms of OPS last year? .146 is the difference.

I'll give you guys a sec for that to sink in....

Imagine if we were able to clone Rios last year, and replace Vernon Wells with Alex Rios. We essentially did that at SS, where we replaced the Vernon Wells of SS (Mac) with Alex Rios (Eckstein). It's really night and day.

A ton of Jays fans/bloggers, including some of us here wanted to get Jason Bay. Assuming we somehow got him, the upgrade between our combined LF in 07 (741 OPS...that's for anyone who played in LF, not just Stairs/Johnson) and Jason Bay's career #'s (890 OPS) would have been a .150 OPS difference.

In other words, adding David Eckstein to SS is nearly identical to adding Jason Bay pre-07 to play LF for us. No, Eckstein isn't going to suddenly start hitting HR or anything. But our SS position was so bad, that having a league average guy like Eckstein makes it seem like a tremendous upgrade. We would have given up tons of prospects, and millions of dollars for a LF of his quality (assuming we had the money of course). And yet for 4.5 million, we essentially got the same kind of upgrade in our lineup. They won't provide the same production, but the value you're getting, from upgrading a player is proportionately at the same.

When you look at the Eckstein signing this way, it is without a doubt the single best offseason move JP has done. Often times during the offseason, we were told that NY, Boston & the Jays didn't really make any big improvements, and for the most parts were just standing pat. What I'm hoping is that people start realizing that we didn't stand pat, and that out of the three teams listed, you can make the argument the Jays made the most improvements to their starting 9 during the offseason.

Alright, so now that I've proved that Eckstein is a huge addition, how can we maximize his value?

We know Eckstein's coming off an injured season, and considering how valuable he is to the club, we need to keep him rested. Also, we know that his defense is less than spectacular. So what needs to happen to keep him rested and healthy throughout the year?

The obvious answer to this is to have McDonald come in more often and play defense when we're winning. The other thing that Gibbons can do, is make a straight platoon between Eck & Mac.

I'm probably getting a lot of WTF stares at the screen, so I better act fast....here are their 3 year splits vs LHP

McDonald - 697 OPS
Eck -706 OPS

There really isn't any noticeable difference between McDonald or Eckstein, when they're facing a Southpaw. Mac shows he can take the occasional walk against LHP (283/333). Eck would probably be better if he hit for higher average against LHP, as his walk rates and I'd bet ISO would be higher than Mac. That being said, for a difference of .009 OPS, there is really no reason to stop Eck/Mac from going into a straight platoon to start the season. We lose a negligible amount of offense against lefties, which the Jays already kill to date. But the defensive upgrade from Eck to McDonald is sizeable enough that you do gain value starting McDonald against LHP.

I really hope I actually covered some new stuff, and didn't rehash the same old "scrappy" and "team player" ideas that have been circulating the media. Beyond that, I'm just hoping that people can appreciate how bad the SS position was, and that Eckstein is potentially a bigger upgrade than a healthy Rolen in this lineup (proportionately to their positions previously held by Jays, anyways).

Twitchy.