Misty Water Colour Memories

Did I wake up this morning, put on my tightest pair of acid washed jeans then tune into my transistor radio to hear a rock block of Madonna's "Like a Prayer", Billy Joel's "We Didn't Start the Fire" and Tone Loc's "Funky Cold Medina" followed by news that the Berlin Wall had come down?

No? It's not 1989?

As you've likely already heard, Cito Gaston is back in the managerial saddle and has brought Gene Tenace (but not Galen Cisco) along for the ride. Is Galen Cisco still alive? This is most likely a desperate attempt by JP and/or Godfrey to give the ticket-buying masses enough hope to still keep on coming down to the Rogers Centre this summer.

Or maybe it's all a smoke screen to divert attention from JP's highly inappropriate comments about Adam Dunn on Jaystalk last Wednesday. In any event, this is all about PR, people, and JP wasn't about to fire himself. At least he was big enough to admit that "I share the blame along with Gibby and we all know we have a better team than this." The hangman hasn't put his noose away quite yet and JP may still share the same fate as his former roommate.

Along with John Gibbons, Gary Denbo gets to wear the goat horns for the team's underwhelming 35-39 start, as does third base coach Marty Pevey to a lesser extent. JP had been looking for an excuse to fire Ernie Whitt for some time, so he gets shuffled out the door as well. In as base coaches are Cito's buddies Dwayne Murphy and Nick Leyva.

Don't get me wrong, I'm cynical about this move but that doesn't mean I'm against it. I've been indifferent towards John Gibbons for some time now; he, like JP, is thoroughly average at what he does, making few outrageous mistakes to accompany the rare master stroke. Although this deck chair shuffle was probably unnecessary, Cito's classy Morgan Freeman-esque bearing during the press conference in Pittsburgh this afternoon is somewhat reassuring to me in this time of crisis.

Lest we forget that sandwiched between the 1989 miracle comeback and the 1992 and 1993 powerhouses Cito managed a fourth overlooked playoff squadron. The '91 Jays parlayed the 11th worst offense in the AL and the best team ERA into a 91-win season and AL East title. They ultimately got steamrolled in the ALCS by the Twins, who went on to win the World Series, but still. They got in, and that's all that matters these days.

The similarities between that club and this one are much greater than their differences. Those Jays had very little power from their starting nine (only Joe Carter and the Ghost of Kelly Gruber hit 20 dingers or better), but compensated with blinding speed and a stellar rotation of Jimmy Key, David Wells, Todd Stottlemyre, Juan Guzman, trade deadline pickup Tom Candiotti and the Ghost of Dave Stieb. Well, we can't equal the speed of Devo and Robbie this year, but you know what I'm driving at: great pitching CAN mask a weak offense.

When things were rolling before the team imploded in the mid-90s, Cito had the managerial intangibles that made the Jays win more games than their pythagorean said they should've. Yes, that's right, intangibles, and I'd say the same thing now about Ozzie Guillen or Ron Gardenhire. Cito was famous for reading pitchers who tipped their pitches (think Robbie Alomar homering off Dennis Eckersley in the '92 ALCS) or fell into patterns. His skill set doesn't count for nothing and is almost certainly greater than that of the departed John Gibbons.

His handling of a spastic young David Wells was legendary. If you don't remember, Boomer once objected to getting the hook early and chose to throw the ball down the third base line in disgust rather than hand it over to his manager. When he got shelled again in his next start, Cito left him in to take his lumps and refused to pull the portly southpaw. Point made. AJ Burnett, take note.

Cito says "We're gonna try to start the season over tonight." I know better than to expect a miracle, but am wishing him well all the same.

-- Johnny Was

Flawed Tactics

You know that running game that people are giving Gibbons credit for? The same group of people who mention that with a decrease in HR, SB and hit & runs are the way to go to make up for the lack of power?

Well, the Jays have stolen a bunch of bases, but they're not being very efficient. With a 67% SB success rate, good enough for 28th in the majors...I think it's time to put an end to the running game. With an offense that would embarrass little leaguers, the Jays can't afford to be giving up outs like this. I realize some of the CS are including failed hit & runs, but when a team is this bad at stealing bases you have to put an end too it ASAP.

Look on the bright side though - I'm sure some of those runners that won't get caught stealing will be thrown out on a DP.

Twitchy.

A pitch count is just a number...

I don't think I'm in the minority here that asking Dustin McGowan to pitch in the 9th inning of tonight's game was a retarded move by Gibbons. The Jays are up by 2, and yes, the bullpen hasn't been perfect as of late. But pushing Dusty to throw 125 pitches in a meaningless game against the Seattle Mariners brought a ton of risk to McGowan's future with the reward being a game we should have won regardless of who pitched the ninth.

It's not like this was a do or die game for the playoffs or anything. There's no excuse for McGowan to throw 125 pitches in a game like this...

McGowan is a TJ survivor, and this will essentially be his first full season in the majors. To allow him to throw 125 pitches in this game is inexcusable. If the bullpen can't be expected to hold a 2 run lead while getting 3 outs, we have bigger issues than the flawed lineup that cannot hit with RISP.

I didn't mind too much when McGowan threw after the 100th pitch. 110 shouldn't be too bad, and while 116 makes me nervous, as long as he doesn't do that very often; or has an extra day of rest; or is pulled out earlier in his next start, it's not a horrible pitch count. But I think at that point (the end of the 8th) you gotta tell McGowan he's pitched a terrific game, and that you're going to hand it over to the bullpen.

I'm glad the Jays won, and McGowan looked pretty sharp in the 9th. But I don't think it was a necessary move to keep him in, and I hope that McGowan's health doesn't come into jeopardy as a result.

Switching Gears

Just throwing it out there - when Zaun comes back from the D/L, if Wilkerson isn't producing, should the Jays try out a DH/C platoon with Barajas and Zaun, with Stairs/Mench playing in LF? With Stew on the d/l, Wilkerson becomes the fourth OF. With my idea, the Jays keep Barajas kickass bat in the lineup. By the way, at the time nobody gave a shit about the Barajas signing, but since I've bitchslapped a lot of JP/Gibbons decisions lately, I'll give him props for signing Barajas, who's been an absolute monster lately. Definetly looks like a terrific FA signing to this date.

But back to my original point - if Stairs/Mench platoon in LF (with Stairs getting an odd start vs RHP as a DH cause he's old and we don't wanna wear him out in the OF), would it be wise to use Zaun & Barajas as DH/C? Alternate them every day or so, and they stay pretty fresh. Wilkerson becomes Stairs personally caddy in LF when the Jays have a lead. I know it sounds kind of crazy, but this lineup needs all the help it can get, so I'm just trying some out of the box thinking. Wilkerson has looked better as of late, but I'd hate to see Zaun get AB's over Barajas with the way he's been playing lately. Here, both of these guys get a chance to hit, and I think it has the chance of helping this team score more runs in the short-term.

The only flaws with this is that:

A) If a catcher gets hurt you might have to lose the DH (ie Zaun injured and Barajas = starting DH than Barajas moves to C and the pitcher has to hit).
B) You probably want to avoid A so you keep a third catcher - Thigpen? I'd hate to kill his development, but the way the Jays have used him they really have no intent on making him the C of the future...

Is this idea completely batshit insane, or does it have some merit to try this out maybe 3-4 times a week?

Twitchy.

They figured it out!

Alright, so I'm still pissed that Gibbons and crew decided that Lind shouldn't start, though Stewart did have a pretty good game. Part of it was the fact that Nick Swisher isn't a real CF, and misplayed everything hit to him, but I'll give Stew credit for hustling and getting some key hits.

On that note, and not to steal Johnny's roundup - I couldn't resist this early bit of good news from the blue jays official site:

McDonald's move from the bench to short was to serve as a late-inning defensive replacement for David Eckstein. Gibbons had been reluctant to use McDonald instead of Eckstein in the late innings of close games this season, but that has suddenly changed.

"He may be the best defensive shortstop in the game," Gibbons said about McDonald. "If he was just very good, we probably wouldn't do it, but with what he can do out there -- take away runs -- it's the right thing to do.

"By no means is it a reflection on the other guy."

I gotta say, I'm pretty proud of Gibbons for changing his mind. A week ago on Jays Talk, JP said this wasn't going to happen. So it sounds like Gibbons found his Cahones, and is planning on using McDonald as a defensive replacement. Earlier I wrote a letter to JP explaining how important this was, so I'm feeling pretty ballin now that Gibbons has come to his senses and plans on using McDonald in the later innings.

Mac's the best defensive SS in the game, and when we have a lead he's the most important guy on the field. This next part is from the original Blue Jays article:

Also on Monday, Gibbons moved Eckstein down into the lineup's ninth slot -- a switch that seems to play into the new line of thinking. If McDonald enters late in a game, he can slide into the No. 9 spot, where he typically hits in the order. Gibbons said making the mid-game switch might depend on how soon Eckstein is due to bat.

"It depends on where Eck is in the lineup," Gibbons said. "If he's still coming to the plate, we probably won't [play McDonald] until the ninth. If he's out of the way, we may do it in the eighth. Who knows?"

So there's no chance they'll do it when Eck has a potential AB left, but for the most part they'll bring him in when they have a lead, as they should. Can't be too angry with that, but in a one run game starting in the 7th inning or later, I think Mac's defensive value is greater than Eck's offensive output. But it's pretty hard to complain about them realizing how stupid it was to use him as a pinch runner...

When we had big Frank here," said Gibbons, referring to Frank Thomas, who was released by the club on April 20, "we also needed pinch runners -- one guy for him and another guy for maybe the catcher. Now, we don't really need that as much."

I don't know about you guys, but this quote just cracked me up. The Jays didn't spend 3 million dollars to make McDonald a pinch runner - and if they did, why didn't they trade or sign someone who's sole purpose is to steal bases and run really fast? I guess this means from now on that Lind or Scutaro are going to be pinch runners in the future (my bet's on Lind being the primary PR). I think that's an excellent use of Lind's service time. You know, he'll learn how to run around the bases, which is pretty important to know. I bet he's forgotten how to do that since he hasn't really been on base much in his last 20 plate appearances. So guaranteeing him a chance to be on the bases by having him pinch run for Zaun instead of watching him fail by trying to get on via a hit will allow him to continue his development by running around the bases, an extremely important skill. It makes so much sense now why we should let Stewart go 0-4 in LF while providing equally shitty defense!

Wow, I totally lost my train of thought after that...so yeah, great move to bring in McDonald, and I'm still pretty pissed that the Jays gave up on Lind after 20 AB. That would have been like giving up on McGowan last year after 2 starts. And I mean, giving McGowan an opportunity to figure it out on the major league level didn't pay off in the long run....

No wonder Lind pressures himself so much. They claim that he has the starting job, and they'll be behind him whatever they do. But when he doesn't hit 367 or whatever it was when he was in AAA, they put him on the bench and essentially tell him "we have no faith in you, kid". It took McGowan till his 5th start to start producing (the fourth being the famed May 23 start where Zaun & Gibbons called him out for not using the Curve), and there was no talk of taking McGowan out, bad as he was. Even if there was, it was foolish, because it was obvious the kid just needed to adjust. So why are we taking Lind out of games before he has a chance to prove himself? It took McGowan essentially from his May 3rd start to his May 28th start before we had any results - it took Lind from April 26th to May 4th to determine that Lind is useless. But I'm sure playing 2 games in a row followed by an offday over a week and a half is enough time to prove oneself in the majors.

Twitchy.

YBD Award - May 2008

It pains me, it really does, to give the (false) appearance of jumping on the bash-Gibby bandwagon but I cannot be silent. It may be the first week of the month but I think there's enough stupidity here to easily nail this month's "You Big Dummy Award."

According to MacLeod, John Gibbons has apparently allowed his job-security panic to trump his good sense. Good ol' Gibby has decided that Shannon Stewart will do more for his continued employment than young stud Adam Lind. Here's the relevant quote:

Gibbons said the plan is to have Stewart take a regular turn in the lineup for the time being.

“Stewie's always hit and we still think he's going to,” he said. “The best way we feel to get him going is to give him some regular time and see what happens. He's always hit at the top.”

Gibbons would not speculate what the immediate future holds for Lind, who was hitting at a .365 clip down in Syracuse.

“You don't want you top guy sitting around,” Gibbons said. “That doesn't do him any good because he's a hitter. A hitter's got to be hitting, they've got to be swinging, getting at-bats.”

What does that imply to you? It looks to me like Gibbons is ready to cut bait on Lind for now and ship him back to AAA where he has nothing at all left to prove. That would be a massive blow to any player's confidence. Gibbons is prepared to block the guy who is said to be the future of that position, a 25 year old who has demonstrated that AAA holds no challenge for him, and possibly permanently scare his confidence . . . to make more at bats for Shannon-fucking-Stewart?????

Tell me this is some kind of sick practical joke!

Look, you can argue all day long about Reed Johnson vs. Shannon Stewart. I think it was a bad call but I think it's close enough that there is no definitive slam dunk winner in that debate. But this?

THIS???

THIS is monumental legendary "Ruben Sierra over Shawn Green" insanity.

If Gibby is so paranoid over his job, then extend his ass or fire it - we can't afford to do stupid shit like this in a mindless panic.

~WillRain

Fantasy Baseball Week 3

The Toucans Of Whoopass were defeated in a landslide last week. The epic beatdown was issued by The Huck Fleners, and the score for the week was a horrific 8-2-2 in favour of Huck. The Toucans didn't hit, and they didn't pitch, which sounds a hell of a lot like the Jays.

The knockout punch was delievered by Todd Wellemeyer. We have a moves limit (which I hate, by the way), restricting assholes like me from streaming position players and starters every day. Anyways, I picked him up, but then dropped him upon learning Jon Rauch would be closing. We lost Rafael Soriano to injury, so I panicked and grabbed Rauch, while dropping Todd. Huck, in his infinite wisdom, picked him up. As fate would have it, Matt Cain would face off against Wellemeyer. And then this happened...

Troy Glaus is stinking up the joint, so I grabbed Votto who's on fire to be the utility guy. He's probably going to start now that he's shown Dusty that he refuses to clog the bases (1 BB, 50 AB). So I figure if he's got a spot in the lineup, and he's convinced Baker he won't clog the bases, he'll probably get a spot in the middle of the lineup. Atta boy Votto - fool him into thinking you're not going to clog the bases to get your job back, and then get back to your patient ways.

For Week 4, the Toucans face off against ShaveThoseSideburns. The Toucans fell to 8th after that bitchslap by Huck, so winning this week will put us back in the top 6.

Last night's Jays game...

I don't hate Gibbons - I'll joke about firing him every now and then, but he's not as bad as most fans think. But yesterday he had some pretty weird decisions, as noted earlier by Johnny.

Look, I get it - Wells needs an occasional day off. But having just released a guy who was your fulltime DH, would it not have made a ton of sense to just DH Wells? Doing that makes the lineup a hell of a lot deeper, and prevents one of the super-scrubs from hitting in his place. An OF of Stewart - Rios - Stairs is significantly better in every possible way then a Stew-Rios-Inglett OF.

But then in the 6th, as Johnny mentions, he brings Marcum out after throwing damn near 100 pitches. And he goes to Tallet for an inning and a third. Tallet, the guy who's pitched a shitload of innings to this point, and can be relied upon in key situations...you brought in him against RH hitters, when you're down by 4? Isn't that what Frasor was for?

I thought it'd make just a tiny little bit more sense to use Frasor for two, and then bring in Camp or something. Save Tallet for when we can actually win a game.

DH Ideas

Johnny brought up some other names of potentially useful players who could be used to boost the offense now that Thomas is gone. A name I'd like to throw out there is Kevin Mench. Texas signed him to a MLC - assuming he can still hit LHP like he always could, I think it'd be a terrific idea to send them a pen arm or something for Mench. As recently as last year, he posted a 901 OPS against LHP, and for his career he's got a 924 OPS vs LHP. A Stairs/Mench platoon, a Lind/Mench platoon, or even an Overbay/Mench platoon would be a huge upgrade for this team against LHP. And considering he's on a MLC, it's not like we'd have to throw a good pen arm their way.

Twitchy.

Thomas Mad, Thomas Released

I've been pretty busy lately, and I'll admit I haven't been following much Jays news. Ok, I knew Thomas was pretty pissed, but imagine my surprise today at work when I find Thomas has been released.

There's really nothing I can add to the situation that hasn't already been said. But I wouldn't be doing my duty (haha) if I didn't at least weigh in on the situation. So with that in mind....

Thomas' bat speed may have declined. I don't know that for sure - maybe it did, maybe it didn't. That isn't the issue to me. I think he could have eventually hit his way out of it, as he has the past few years. Yesterday, I thought benching him was a brilliant tactic to light a fire under the slugger's bulky ass. Piss him off enough that he'll get aggressive, and crush the first pitch he sees into the CF windows.

What I do know, is that Thomas' tendencies, and overall game plan prevented him from coming out of a slump. I love how he's still got terrific discipline, an elite batting eye, capable of taking a ton of pitches and getting into hitters counts. The problem, is that pitchers were exploiting his patience by getting ahead in the count knowing he would not attack the first pitch. The Texas game, for example, where Padilla threw 2 fastballs down the middle, as Frank took, being patient. Then he strikes out on one out of the zone, in a pitchers count.

You see, when you're in a slump, taking pitches is the worst possible outcome. Teams aren't afraid of you, and get ahead in the count. Once this happens, you're down 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and you feel like the at bat is over. By not being aggressive, and getting behind in the count, Thomas was always hitting in a brutal situation, where he'd never get a pitch to hit.

Let me say that I agree 100% with benching a player who isn't performing. The message it sent was play or rot on the bench, and it's a wake up call to a team that needed one. So kudos on JP & Gibbons for having the cohones to do it.

But releasing Thomas? I don't know. I just don't know yet. It helps the defense if Lind is called up to play LF. Bad as he may be, he's better than Stairs. It helps the bench - when Thomas is off we're essentially down a position player, as he can't play in the field. It probably gives the team more balance against RHP, as Thomas only hit to the tune of a 796 OPS vs RHP, so odds are even Stairs would be a bit of an improvement going forward on offense. Frank was a lefty killer, and the Jays should still be ok against lefties. And if they're not, well, I'd rather be strong against RHP, which is 75% of the leagues pitching.

I think earlier in the blog, Thomas was mentioned as a clubhouse cancer. Here's Wells' take on the situation:

Center fielder Vernon Wells praised management for finding a quick resolution to the situation.

“I think it’s better for (Thomas), too,” Wells said. “He gets a chance to have more time to possibly pick up with another team, with us it may give some of our younger guys a chance to come up.

“We haven’t been the best team so far this season. We definitely have some improvements to make.”

Sounds like the team may be better off without Thomas, though I may be reading too much into it.

Still, I hope this becomes a defining moment for the team, which will bring them together and also act as a wake up call that poor performance will be be tolerated by no one. For a team that underpeforms like no other, and plays down to their competition, this is a huge opportunity for the Jays. I really hope this brings everyone together, and ends up becoming a positive through an extended winning streak, one for which the Jays haven't put together in years.

I hope Thomas signs with a team and shows that he can still perform, but more importantly, I hope that the Jays are a better team at the end of the day.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Finally, some drama. We appear to be at Defcon two when it comes to relations between the Big Sleep and Gibby...

It's hard to fault the manager for seeking to do something about the giant, non-performing hole in the heart of his order, but calling Thomas into his office and telling him he's now a BENCH player "indefinitely"? Thomas, no dullard, is not taking the news well as you might expect.

Unless this move came on JP's directive, and there's no reason to believe that it did, it's solely a baseball move, not an economic one. The Big Sleep doesn't see it that way, though:

"You know what's going on and I know what's going on. We'll see how it plays out. I'm just a little frustrated right now. There are some things going on around here this year that I haven't been happy about."

Yeah, we know what's going on, and it is kind of greasy.

Since Gibby's contract runs out at the end of this season, I see no reason why he'd try to limit Thomas' plate appearences to > 376 to prevent his '09 option from vesting of his own accord. I wouldn't put the cloak and dagger stuff past JP, but both men are in win now mode and have little to gain by making this a running sore during a season that is far from being lost.

The worst of the past three listless losses was the 7-5 defeat in 14 to the Rangers on Wednesday. The lack of urgency was absolutely pathetic and the tempo wasn't much higher on Thursday or last night even.

Something had to be done, and it was decided that that something would be lighting a fire under the ass of a very highly paid and underperforming veteran. After a day or two of riding the pines, Thomas should be reinserted into the lineup, point made. Frankly (no pun intended), I'd love to see him come into pinch hit today or tomorrow if there's a high-pressure late inning situation of the sort where we'd normally use Matt Stairs, who is presumably replacing him as DH.

Incidentally, the "slow starter" talk is kind of bollocks. April indeed has been the coolest month over his career (.283/.407/.513), but it's not like he typically put up sub .200 performances year in year out. And his April BAbip is abnormally low at .286 (almost .20 points lower than any other month), which indicates that he's long been making bad contact in the early going. Cold weather is a plausible excuse seeing as he played all those years in Chicago, but that shouldn't fly in a domed stadium.

If expectations for this club weren't so high, then the whole issue could just be ignored and Thomas allowed to hit his way out of this slump, which he will inevitablly do. Sorry pal, this ain't Bal'mer.

Blair says that JP will not sit by and let the offence "rot" as we wait for Scott Rolen's return, speculating that Adam Lind will get recalled from Syracuse in the near future. (Just about game time here and I see Stewart is taking the day off again because of a sore groin, so it's only a matter of time before Lind joins the club).

Griffin (!?!) sees the club's early road success as reason for optimism. He shits on nothing and noone in today's Star. Mark this date on your calander.

John Lott at the Post checks in on Big Dave Purcey after his debut, reporting:

“I think the anxiety and jitters and nervousness, whatever you want to call it, got to me a little bit,” he said with a shy smile when it was over.

“The walks [were not] what I really wanted but I did make pitches when I needed to, and just tried to keep our team in the game and ended up doing that,” he said. “I’m happy about that.”

Skip gave him a pat on the back and he's still at the top of list the next time we need a starter. Oh, and we DFA'd Josh Banks and called Shawn Camp up. Meh.

Wilner thinks something must be done to shake up the offense, but all roads seem to lead to certain death. Predictably, he preachs patience.

ELSEWHERE:

* Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts is a nifty little ballplayer and an outwardly "good guy" type, hence the surprise and dismay when he was named in the Mitchell Report during the offseason. He talked to the Baltimore Sun about the pressures that led to his steriod use.

* Were the rest of you as unshocked as I was to learn that Shea Hillenbrand's child was attacked by a marmut?

-- Johnny Was

Show A Little Finesse

After two pretty sad losses to two, left handed, finesse type pitchers, I began to wonder why the Jays struggled. After all, the Jays were facing two Southpaws! The Jays kill Southpaws! Damnit Gibbons, this is all your fault, isn't it?

Just to make sure it was Gibbons fault, so I could chime in with all the Gibbons playa haters, I checked the 2007 team stats against Finesse and power pitchers.

I will fully admit that using last years stats may not be the best way to figure it out. Wells wasn't healthy, Glaus is no longer on the team...but it should still give some indication of the teams strength going forward.

2007 vs finesse: 30/30 in OPS with 625
2007 vs power: 24/30 in OPS with 722

Hold the phones there kiddos - a 625 OPS against Finesse pitchers? The team drops their OPS by nearly 100 points of OPS when they faced a finesse pitcher in 2007. Does this trend stay true in 2008?

2008 vs power: 11/30 in OPS with 840
2008 vs finesse: Turns out ESPN doesn't believe the Jays faced a finesse pitcher...

HOWEVER, the team OPS is 725 right now. So if we assume they have an 840 OPS against power pitches, it's highly likely that the OPS against finesse pitchers is in the low 600's.

So what does this show?

First off, it isn't Gibbons fault. The Jays are absolutely crushing the ball when the opponents are bringing the heat. The problem arises when a finesse pitcher (like Smith, and I guess Eveland...he threw what, 90, 91 tops?) comes out and dazzles the Jays with a myriad of pitches in the mid to upper 80's.

There isn't a ton of evidence in 2008, but this squad seems to be incapable of hitting anything slower than 92 MPH. It's almost ironic in a way - coming into the season everyone thought Thomas was done and couldn't hit a 95 MPH fastball. Turns out, him and the rest of the team are the exact opposite. They could probably kill a guy like Verlander, a RHP who throws 95-98 MPH. But throw them a lefty who couldn't hit 90 if his life depended on it, and the Jays might as well throw out McDonald at the clean up spot, cause as a team they're not doing much better against those "crafty" finesse pitchers.

In another month or two when there's enough evidence one way or another on finesse pitchers, I'll check back to see if the trend continues.

Twitchy.

Credit where due

Someone has to do it.

Someone has to stare into the maddening abyss and not only maintain their own sanity but try, against all odds, to impart some to the horde which assails him.

Someone - some lone, valiant, soul - has to sit behind a microphone and try to accomplish a task which makes herding cats look like child's play.

Someone has to listen to the ravings of the Chicken Littles among Jays fandom who call in the the post game show on Fan590, JaysTalk, and somehow, against all odds, NOT descend into a screaming slobbering rant at the insanity of it all.
That someone, that solitary heroic figure fighting a never-ending battle for reason, perspective, and logic is Mike Wilner. Your efforts, sir, do not go unnoticed or unappreciated. We here at The Southpaw salute you.

Yes, this has all the earmarks of a shameless cry for attention and a plug but, in all sincerity, it's not. I really do admire the job Mr. Wilner does. I cannot imagine that I could sit through some of the things he does and not say some VERY nasty things to the morons that call in to bless us with their "wisdom" about the Jays. Yes, the man has my dream job - but I have no trouble admitting that I really don't think I could handle it with as much class as he does.

A tip of the hat was the least I could do.



On another note, I for one confess to being mystified at the Jays' neglect of Brandon League. Fan590 is apparently reporting that Randy Wells has been designated for assignment after all of a single inning in the majors. In his place the Jays have recalled Jessie Carlson. Apparently the team seems to feel that their bullpen is a bit depleted after Accordo struggled on back-to-back nights and Downs went over 2 innings tonight.

OK, fine.

So if that's the case how come League only has one inning? How come Wells only had one? If Wells really can't be trusted to take up the slack (at LEAST as well as Jessie Carlson!) why did we keep him in the first place? And let's not forget last year's Lost Boy Jayson Frasor who, himself, has only 1 2/3 IP.
I have no big hard-on for Wells, though I think it would be nice if we bribed the Cubs to let us keep him, but I do submit that the Jays need to either trust the guys they have on their roster or change them. I'm NOT a Gibbons basher, I think he's more good than bad and I think the criticism of his handling of relief pitchers is overblown. But that said, I can find a rational that makes sense why we need to bolter a pen that has no less than three guys in it who are not getting hardly any work - at least two of whom we know are quality guys.

Accardo has pitched three days in a row now, and Downs isn't gonna be a lock after a hard night tonight. It will be very interesting to see if Gibbons uses the obvious man - Brandon League - if the Jays find themselves in a save situation tomorrow night.

~WillRain

The Roundup

On a personal note, today the Missus and I celebrate two years of marriage, an institution which at times can instill as much fear as Jonathan Papelbon's splitter when you're behind 0-2, be rockier than a start from Josh Towers v.2006, and take you to euphoric Joe Carter World Series winning home run highs. I'm not trying to make any particular point, it's just an observation.

(For some inexplicable reason Dave Stewart's death stare popped to mind...)

On a final non-Jays-related note, I'd like to note my satisfaction that the NHL season is now over as temperatures finally hit double digits. That is all.

The big news today is that Rich Harden is being scratched due to some minor lat soreness. This is a pleasant turn of events for a couple of reasons. The first being that he pummelled the Bosox twice in his first two starts of the season--which is hardly a surprise seeing as he has bona fide ace stuff when healthy--and missing him this series certainly won't hurt our cause. The second is somewhat more esoteric. I like the idea of Harden (who has a $7.5 million club option for next year before hitting free agency) being solid this year, but missing a half dozen starts due to niggling injuries that'd scare off potential trade suitors.

That's right, I'd like to see him pitching here in 2009 or 2010, and it's really got little to do with the fact that he's Canadian. Well, sort of.

Even though good young Canadian talent is often overlooked by the Jays in the draft, I'd like to think that we will take a page from the Book of Schuerholz and start targeting Canadian free agent talent. It's nothing to do with nationalism (but if that puts butts in seats then so much the better) and everything to do with economics.

The Braves have long had a policy of targetting Georgia boys (and those from neighbouring regions in the Braves market) and successfully locking them up on hometown discounts. I'm all for being more like the Braves; are you saying that you're not? Who are the Georgia boys currently on the Braves 40-man?

* Brian McCann (Athens, GA)
* Chipper Jones (DeLand, FLA)
* Jeff Francoeur (Atlanta, GA)
* Tim Hudson (Columbus, GA)
* Mike Hampton (Brooksville, FLA)
* Chuck James (Atlanta, GA)
* Mark Teixeira (born in Severna Park, MD, but played his college ball at Georgia Tech)

That's a pretty sizeable chunk of talented local players for one roster. (Yes, I am aware that Mike Hampton is a giant albatross hanging around the club's neck.)

In conclusion, not targetting talented local kids who grew up cheering for your team and might be willing to parlay that into a hometown discount is just silly. Hence my interest in Rich Harden.

Back to more immediate concerns, it's looking like we'll see the following three pitching matchups:

Tonight: Burnett-Chad Gaudin (ex-Jay given to Billy Beane as an early X-mas gift in 2005)
Weds: McGowan-Greg Smith ( a very hittable AAA lefty replacing the injured Justin Duchscherer) OR Lenny DiNardo (shitty bullpen lefty)
Thurs: Marcum-Dana Eveland

Of the three A's starters, the young Eveland is the only one with a pulse. Expect the Jays to take two of three handily.

One little matter that hasn't been commented on elsewhere to my knowledge was the deliciously correct decision to slot Aaron Hill into the 2 hole in Sunday's game. Has he found his proper home, or was this a one day experiment with Eckstein taking a breather? Move Stew down in the order, Gibby. Come on.

For those of you who can tolerate his Hank Hill accent and constant overuse of "I tell you what", John Gibbons was on the Fan this morning.

Now, several clever fucks predicted that the upstart Rays would finish third in the AL East and ahead of the Jays this year, chuckling to themselves at how tart a thought that is. Let me tell you why that won't happen.

Eric Hinske has already racked up 13 ABs and has started in RF in four of the Rays six games to date. Acceptable bench player he may be, but you don't win with Hinske as a regular; I promise you that. The Rays have also chucked a bunch of ABs at black holes like Shawn Riggans (C), Willy Aybar (3B), and Jason Bartlett (SS; ok, his D more than makes up for his pitcher's bat).

If the Rays finish .500, it'll be a tremendous accomplishment. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, you witty little tossers.

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Richard Griffin slaps a bunch of random factoids together and comes to the unlamentable conclusion that John Gibbons is on his way out this year if he doesn't somehow pull a 90-win season out of his ass. We know that Griffin has been grinding his JP axe for so long that it's now no bigger than a toothpick, so much of what's to come shouldn't be a surprise.

Gibby is not perfect. In three plus years on the job he's been learning as he goes and most would probably agree that he squeezed about as much as one would've expected from the talent at his disposal. He usually plays it safe by going with the matchup the numbers dictate, but he rides his starters--even TJ survivors--too deep into games. He has a reputation for being a players' manager, scraps with Lilly and Hillenbrand notwithstanding. He showed creativity in 2006 by moving Troy Glaus over to shortstop, keeping Hillenbrand's bat in the lineup at third, behind fly ball pitchers and in interleague games. And on the other hand he showed what might be a head-scratchingly vindictive side by using J-Mac as a pinch hitter last year with a healthy Alex Rios sitting on the bench. "I had my reasons," he said when questioned.

Just what his ceiling is as a manger I don't venture to say. He might get a little better than he is now, or he might not. He didn't do anything egregious enough last year to warrant a firing, but he didn't exactly cement his status here for the long term either.

Uncle Griff usually tests our credulity and doesn't disappoint this time around. Problem: how to compare Gibbons with the nine other managers who have longer tenure with their respective ball clubs? Solution: in a manner that's least flattering to JP's friend and personal hire.

Here's how Griffin proceeds:

The 45-year-old Texan has been at his job longer than 20 other managers and his total of 536 games managed in a Jays uniform trails only Cito Gaston and Bobby Cox, while his 270 victories are 11 behind Jimy Williams for third in franchise history.

As for the nine other managers currently with more service time in the same place, they are Cox (Braves), Tony La Russa (Cards), Mike Scioscia (Angels), Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Eric Wedge (Indians), Ned Yost (Brewers), Clint Hurdle (Rockies), Terry Francona (Red Sox) and Ozzie Guillen (White Sox)...

In comparing the accomplishments of the top 10 in terms of longevity, from No.1 Cox to No.10 Gibbons, five of them have won a World Series. Hurdle's Rockies went to the Classic and lost to Francona's Bosox in '07. Wedge last year made it to the ALCS with the Tribe, falling to Francona's Sox in seven games. Only Gibbons and Yost have prevailed this long without at least one post-season appearance.

Ok, so taking your club to the playoffs is the sole measuring stick for success when it comes to managers, which means Gibby (and Yost) are the worst of the bunch. Maybe they are.

But if you compared Gibbons' W-L record from his first three full seasons to those of everyone else on the list, you might come to a different conclusion. Gibby had two .500-ish clubs that couldn't hit (2005 and 2007) and one that flirted with 90 wins despite the best efforts of Josh Towers (2006). Two of those clubs had no shot of going to the playoffs, and the middle one did a fairly good imitation of a contender into August.

Bobby Cox and Tony LaRussa both had losing composite records in their first three years and they get kudos around the league for being great managers, deserved (Cox) or not (LaRussa). Scioscia got a ring in year three, but his first two clubs were uncompetitive. Gardenhire is a fantastic manager whose teams regularly outperform their pythag; he rang off 90 win seasons and AL Central titles in each of his first three seasons. Wedge took over as the Indians were rebuilding, but his clubs are usually bad on the pythag, the 2006 edition drastically so (11 games under). Yost had two crappy clubs and one .500 one, then regressed, then got back up around .500; he's playing with some phenomenal young talent (Fielder/Braun) in a weak division and has little to show for it--so far. Hurdle had five straight losing seasons and probably would've lost his job last year if not for the Rox improbable late season playoff run. Francona is probably--no, scratch that, he is--the best manager in baseball, but it didn't start out so beautifully in Philly. Guillen rode the Chisox to a WS victory in 2005 when the pitching clicked, but he's constantly running his mouth and making headaches for the club.

You can basically spin this however you like because there's good, bad and in between on this list. But Griffin likes to simplify things in a manner that fits his own worldview (must clone 1980 version of Ron LeFlore...), and he choses to tell a story that vindicates his own dislike of JP Ricciardi.

Forgive me for saying that line of reasoning is just dickish.

In other news, Stairsy has recovered from a minor ankle sprain and got into yesterday's game, going 0 for 3. The Beej is to throw simulated games today and Tuesday, with his first real fake game action slated for March 15.

AJ Burnett pitched well yesterday and Gibby is confident that he'll have his curve working by the start of the season. It might take a prosthetic nail, but he'll git'er done.

The Mockingbird really knocks one out of the park on the LF competition between Shannon Stewart and Reed Johnson. Blair's argument that that SS is the better player "Period", is faulty. Go have a look if you want to know why.

Wilner is getting a bit testy with the mental midgets who think the ship is on fire because the Jays aren't winning spring training games. He makes a good point here:

Will Machi giving up three in the ninth affect the Jays this season? Will Inglett and Ryan Patterson not being able to drive in a run with the bases loaded and one out in a two-run game? How about Ryan Ketchner giving up a four-spot in a game the Jays lost by three? Maybe it’s that the Jays had a perfect game thrown at them by the Yankees in a game in which 80% of the plate appearances were by Inglett, Lind, Coats, Snider, Pedro Lopez, Curtis Thigpen, Russ Adams, Matt Watson and Chip Cannon.

I’m hoping these examples are enough, but I feel like I’m beating my head against a brick wall when I read some of these comments.

I’ll close with this: The 1984 Detroit Tigers got off to the best start in baseball history at 35-5, barely breaking a sweat on their way to a World Series title. In the pre-season that year, they had the second-worst record in the American League at 11-17. In 1992, the Blue Jays won the World Series, an especially amazing feat because they had to overcome a 13-18 pre-season, the second-worst in the league. In 1993, they went 11-19 in games that didn’t count, and ridiculously, still managed to win the World Series again.

Seriously, the guy usually has more patience than a kindergarden teacher. Don't jump, Wilner!

ELSEWHERE:

* The Rays have pretty much made their peace with the fact that Rocco Baldelli, pencilled in as their right fielder, is going stay/get hurt and cause them massive headaches. External options would include Kenny Lofton, or there the possibility that Eric "Doug Heffernan" Hinske could do his awkward, rambling and always exciting impression of an outfielder. I'm pulling for Dougie. Same reasoning as the people who voted for William Hung on American Idol.

* Coco Crisp is cross at losing his job to wunderkind Jacoby Ellsbury, but of greater interest is the Boston Herald's use of OPS when listing a players stats. Just wishing the local papers would similarly provide the JaysTalk set with a little bit more context... Crisp suffered through various ailments last year and is probably the best 4th OF in the AL. He will get his ABs when Manny goes on his annual summer vacation. I've been awfully kind to the Beantowners in this paragraph, no?

* The Yankees are apparently worried that Joba Chamberlain is letting his new-found celebrity status go to his head. Where is my eye-rolling emoticon? He threw 24 major league IP last year. Rival clubs just might have looked at his game tape this offseason. But I'm sure a 0.38 ERA is something he can easily maintain over a 15-year career, because Joba Rulez!

* Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not be able to accompany the Bosox to Japan for their regular season-opening March 25-26 set with the A's in Toyko because his wife has a little chavy to fire out later this month. Millions of Japanese fans will be gutted if he can't make it.

* A-Rod's got a sore shoulder that is temporarily limiting him to DH duties. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound serious.

Apologies to anyone who usually reads this in the morning. Blogger server errors prevented me from getting this up earlier

--Johnny Was