State of the bullpen

Now that I'm back, I want to take a look at the future of the Jays' major league squad. Will did a great job showing off the minor leagues, starting with the 1B prospects. While he takes a look at the present and future of the minor leagues, I'm going to take a look at next year's team, starting with the bullpen.

I was gonna write up a long blog about why Wolfe deserved to be in the majors, but thankfully JP called him up for the expanded rosters period. He's one of the better right handed relievers we have, and it's pretty clear to this point that keeping him in AAA was more about service time than about trying to win.

During his time in AAA, Wolfe showed that he was much better suited to the bullpen role. He struggled against lefties significantly, allowing 22 hits and 7 walks in 15 2/3 IP for a 1.85 WHIP. He struggled against lefties in 2007 at the major league level.

Why am I mentioning his struggles against lefties? Well, some people, including both management and fans, believed that Wolfe could be successful as a starter. As a starter, Wolfe will be exposed to left handed hitters more often, and odds are will get knocked around a lot more. Which is pretty much what happened in AAA. Wolfe had a 4.84 ERA as a starter (22 1/3 IP), and a 1.26 ERA as a reliever (14 1/3 IP). Small sample sizes, but when taken into account his struggles vs lefties it's not that surprising.

From this point forward, I think Wolfe should only be used as a reliever. And make no mistake, he should be one of the 7 members of next year's pen.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - Frasor, Tallet, and Camp all need to be traded in the offseason. Frasor makes for a decent mop up pitcher, but he's starting to get expensive and there are a ton of better, younger and cheaper pitchers waiting for their chance. He does have some value - a 3.89 ERA, 109 ERA+, and a 1.31 WHIP. Those aren't great numbers, but some team could give up a decent prospect for him. Tallet has been pretty solid this year too, with a 3.27 ERA, 130 ERA+, but an ugly 1.37 WHIP. Again, he's another guy who's going to get expensive, and we have the depth to cover him when he's gone. Camp is the least valuable of the 3, but he really doesn't have a spot going forward. Might as well get what we can for him.

So with those 3 gone, you're looking at a bullpen that includes these names: Ryan, Downs, League, Carlson. I'm not going to bother talking about them much, since it's pretty obvious if they're healthy and on the team that they're locks for the pen. That pen is looking a little light on right handed relief, so Wolfe should easily get a place in the pen. So who would be a good fit for the remaining spots?

If Casey Janssen is ready to go, he could always be a good option. Some would like to see him as a starter - count me down as one of them. But if McGowan is healthy, I don't see a spot available without kicking out Litsch or Purcey. And that's only if/when AJ leaves, and assuming the Jays don't pick anybody up in free agency (for those that hadn't heard yet, JP plans on "staying pat"). So Janssen is most likely headed to the bullpen.

Davis Romero is a favourite of mine - he would be outstanding vs lefties, and this year he has shown the ability to get out right handed bats. He could probably take over Tallet's role.

A lot of fans want to see Brett Cecil pitch - and while I want him to be up here ASAP, he just isn't ready yet. In 6 AAA starts, he has a 4.11 ERA, and is slightly under 2:1 for his K:BB rate. He needs a bit more seasoning before he's ready. And he's too valueable to be wasted as a relief pitcher at this point in his young career.

Scott Richmond is another option who could be used in the pen. I've been a bit unfair to him in the past, but he did pretty well for himself in the majors. Strictly looking at the stats, he struck out 13 and walked 1 in 16 innings - that's pretty damn good. His FIP was 2.84, which is remarkable. He did allow 23 hits in 16 innings, but his 407 BAPIP just isn't sustainable. Yes, his LD rate was high at 23.6, but if I did my math right that only means his BAPIP should be around 350, not 407. Another thing to keep in mind, is that while he allows a ton of hits, he isn't walking anybody. So he might be able to succeed because he's not giving up many free passes. Over a full season his WHIP might be around 1.30, similar to Litsch. But that's just a guess on my part.

I think I let my hate on for the Olympic bullshit get in the way of looking at Richmond fairly. I think he deserves another chance, and that if given that chance he could do a really good job. In my opinion, he should be competing for a spot in next years rotation, and if that fails, he should be the first guy chosen to replace a starter if someone gets injured. If McGowan isn't ready next year, I'd be all for Richmond starting in his place.

I almost forgot to add him to the list, but assuming there's no long-term injury problems Jeremy Accardo should be a lock for the pen. He struggled this year, but I think he can rebound a bit. He won't be as good as the 07 season, but he isn't this bad.

Alright, so with all of the above options to choose from, this is how I see it going down when the dust settles. Ladies and gentlemen, Twitchy's picks for the 2009 bullpen are:

BJ Ryan, Scott Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Brian Wolfe, and Casey Janssen.

Wow. If everybody's healthy that's just unfair. I mean, Davis Romero and Scott Richmond are still in AAA waiting as depth, both for starters and relievers, so it's not like the Jays really cripple their depth by trading away Frasor, Tallet and Camp. It probably won't happen, but I'd be all for BJ Ryan being traded. Don't get me wrong, he's a phenomenal closer, but look at that bullpen and tell me that BJ is needed at 10 million bucks. Assuming BJ is gone, Downs closes, League, Carlson, Wolfe, Accardo, and a recovering Janssen are more than enough depth, and have more than enough experience to handle the loss of Ryan. Davis Romero could join the bullpen as a loogy, and I don't think the team would suffer too much.

Heck, with the 10 million saved by trading BJ, you could afford to go after a big name bat (Burrell, for example) to slot in as the DH.

I realize trading Ryan isn't a popular idea, as our friends at Tao argued, but considering the strength of our bullpen and the options we have available I think trading BJ Ryan in the offseason would be a clever move. It would be a sign that the Jays trust the depth of their bullpen, and want to take advantage of it. The 10 million dollars could be better spent elsewhere - the bullpen won't see a huge drop in effectiveness, but there's a huge difference between putting Matt Stairs or a not so ready Travis Snider at DH compared to a slugging behemoth like Burrell.

While it's difficult to predict how a reliever will pitch year to year, it's looking like the pen will remain a strength heading into next year. It's up to JP (or whoever is the GM in the offseason...I'm available in case you're wondering Mr. Rogers) to take advantage of this.

Twitchy.

Credit where due

Someone has to do it.

Someone has to stare into the maddening abyss and not only maintain their own sanity but try, against all odds, to impart some to the horde which assails him.

Someone - some lone, valiant, soul - has to sit behind a microphone and try to accomplish a task which makes herding cats look like child's play.

Someone has to listen to the ravings of the Chicken Littles among Jays fandom who call in the the post game show on Fan590, JaysTalk, and somehow, against all odds, NOT descend into a screaming slobbering rant at the insanity of it all.
That someone, that solitary heroic figure fighting a never-ending battle for reason, perspective, and logic is Mike Wilner. Your efforts, sir, do not go unnoticed or unappreciated. We here at The Southpaw salute you.

Yes, this has all the earmarks of a shameless cry for attention and a plug but, in all sincerity, it's not. I really do admire the job Mr. Wilner does. I cannot imagine that I could sit through some of the things he does and not say some VERY nasty things to the morons that call in to bless us with their "wisdom" about the Jays. Yes, the man has my dream job - but I have no trouble admitting that I really don't think I could handle it with as much class as he does.

A tip of the hat was the least I could do.



On another note, I for one confess to being mystified at the Jays' neglect of Brandon League. Fan590 is apparently reporting that Randy Wells has been designated for assignment after all of a single inning in the majors. In his place the Jays have recalled Jessie Carlson. Apparently the team seems to feel that their bullpen is a bit depleted after Accordo struggled on back-to-back nights and Downs went over 2 innings tonight.

OK, fine.

So if that's the case how come League only has one inning? How come Wells only had one? If Wells really can't be trusted to take up the slack (at LEAST as well as Jessie Carlson!) why did we keep him in the first place? And let's not forget last year's Lost Boy Jayson Frasor who, himself, has only 1 2/3 IP.
I have no big hard-on for Wells, though I think it would be nice if we bribed the Cubs to let us keep him, but I do submit that the Jays need to either trust the guys they have on their roster or change them. I'm NOT a Gibbons basher, I think he's more good than bad and I think the criticism of his handling of relief pitchers is overblown. But that said, I can find a rational that makes sense why we need to bolter a pen that has no less than three guys in it who are not getting hardly any work - at least two of whom we know are quality guys.

Accardo has pitched three days in a row now, and Downs isn't gonna be a lock after a hard night tonight. It will be very interesting to see if Gibbons uses the obvious man - Brandon League - if the Jays find themselves in a save situation tomorrow night.

~WillRain

Hypothetical ramblings

There's been a lot of focus on Janssen's status being determined by the health of BJ Ryan. I think they're looking at the wrong player. Regardless of Ryan's status; League, Accardo, Downs, Frasor & Tallet should be able to handle the 7th through 9th innings without a significant problem, whether or not Ryan's ready to roll. And let's face it, Janssen would pretty much be doing the 7th-8th innings within a week of Ryan being healthy. What a waste of his arm that'd be.

I don't agree that a player should determine Janssen's fate - other than Casey's performance. And to date, it's been pretty damn good. But that aside, if I had to pick a player to determine Janssen's fate, it'd be AJ.

Obviously this is just a random thought on my part, but how many of you believe this nail problem of AJ's is as simple as it sounds? Maybe I'm jaded by the fact BJ's doctor said they were rushing him, as I suspected they were. Maybe it's because last year, they told us Ryan's back was a problem, and he ended up getting surgery on the elbow. But you know what they say, the elbow's connected to the - spinal cord...

While I have no real evidence to prove this, I just want to focus on a hypothetical situation. What if AJ isn't ready go opening day? There's obviously no evidence he can't, but let's say his nail still isn't good to go. He isn't going to throw his fastball all day, and his change up has a neon "hit me" sign on it. So if he doesn't have Uncle Charlie, he might not be capable of starting as the #2.

While this is an overreaction, but what it does bring up is the importance of Janssen in the rotation. If Casey is the #5, and AJ isn't ready, we can bring up Janssen to the 4 and Litsch becomes the 5 (or another player if we don't wanna screw with his service time...although I'm drawing a blank as to who...doesn't smell like victory to me). However, if Litsch or even Mr. Victory himself starts off as the #5, and Janssen is headed for the pen, this could cause a problem.

Now, my point is less effective at the start of the season. Janssen is being prepped to start now, so if AJ starts on the d/l Janssen can still be put in the rotation. But again, looking further into the season if a starter gets injured, having Janssen in the rotation means we've got solid options behind him. If Litsch or another is the 5, and Janssen is in the pen, all of our rotation depth disappears.

I'll stop now that I'm rambling, but I'm definetly more worried about AJ than I should be...

Twitchy.

Ryan ready to go

With all this talk about who's going to make the #5 spot, and who should be in the bullpen, Ryan has made the decision a lot easier on management.

"I'm probably a couple of bullpen (sessions) short of where I would have been if I didn't have the surgery," Ryan said. "It feels good right now, I am where I need to be."

This is good news for the Jays, who can enter April with their stud closer. Accardo should be pushed back to the 8th inning, which would allow Casey Janssen to enter the rotation. Here at The Southpaw we're all in agreement that Janssen is the best candidate for the 5 spot. With no single overpowering pitch, Janssen doesn't seem to have the best long-term potential in the pen. I've heard Gibbons say that he wants Janssen in the pen, but if that happens, Gibbons will be shouting the immortal words of Gob Bluth, "I've made a huge mistake!".


The other big thing to look for in the pen is the hopeful return to form for Brandon League. I've always been really high on League, and if he can get back to his 2006 form he might be capable of being our best reliever not named Ryan. Imagine the starters handing the ball over to Accardo in the 7th, League in the 8th, and Ryan in the ninth.

Obviously, Riccardi feels the same way:

"It's going to be interesting how League responds," Ricciardi said. "We need League to get back to where he was two years ago. The more weapons we have, obviously, the better we are. The [trainers] said he looks good. He's throwing well."

This is the first news I've heard on League in a while. We'll just have to wait a few weeks to see how everything shapes up.

Twitchy.