Notes from my couch

Seeing as I'm too massively hungover after a semi-raucus stag and doe to sustain a coherent line of argument, may I present you with a collection of rando Sunday afternoon thoughts:

So, you're probably wondering who won the toonie toss. That would be this guy, proud owner of a 60 of delicious Crown Royal. Sometimes the sun just shines out of my ass.

If you're going with powder blues, you have to fully commit to them. I thought that was obvious enough that it doesn't need saying, but nothing the Royals are wearing this afternoon (royal blue hat, powder blue jersey and white pants) matchs. Watch for Gil Meche on Mr. Blackwell's worst-dressed list for 2008. Fletcher concurs that the Royals are very silly looking.

Wait? Doesn't Fletcher only call games/tell stories about famous hot dogs after any hope of salvaging the season has been lost? What does this all mean? I'm not willing to let this team break up with me just yet.

Nice to see Alex Rios jogging to second base on that drive he hit to deep right centre to open the game. David "don't mess with" Dejesus dropped the ball when he hit the ground making a pretty impressive attempt at a diving catch and buggered the throw back in to the infield, allowing Rios to advance to third. Had he actually been running he might well have scored. I know he did cross the plate, but still. Outfielders who appear to be day dreaming all time can't be productive players, can they?

I call Gibby out for managerial incompetence earlier in the week and today he shows that maybe he isn't just phoning it in. Today's lineup sees a slumping Vernon Wells dropped from the cleanup spot to 5th, with Rolen moving into the 3 hole. And he rewards the skip by socking a dinger in his first trip. Here's hoping that this becomes a permanent thing, because as all three of us here have noted V-Dub's splits against righties clearly show that he shouldn't be hitting that high up in the order. With his job on the line, Gibby may well be ready to go with the grouping of talent that he believes to be the most likely to win rather than what's politically correct.

Anyone interested in forming a competitive wiffleball league? If you don't think this looks like one of the more funner things you could be doing with your free time this summer you're just crazy.

As Gilgamesh deals for the Kansas Citys today, note that he too suffered a labrum injury similar to the one that befell our beloved 2007 setup man Casey Janssen. I'm not saying young Casey will be ready to rock as our 5th starter next year (saving us from more gingervitis), but Meche only missed his age 22 to season and was not, in fact, put down like a race horse with a broken leg. Measured in dollar terms, he's now the "ace" of his staff, but you already knew that didn't you, Saxy boy?

A three error inning? That's impressive. Impressively crappy.

This is about as much sitting up as I can handle for the time being, so I'm signing off here in the 4th inning.

-- Johnny Was

Wow

The title really says it all about Carlson. I know Johnny touched on him last night, but damn. That was extremely impressive what he did getting out of that bases loaded jam. Isn't that the second, or third time he's gotten out of a bases loaded situation without giving up a run? I know it's a small sample size and all, and he could implode and prove why he's been a minor leaguer for so long, but I'm very intrigued by Carlson's peformance to date. If he can keep this up, it can pretty much negate the injury to Janssen.

The biggest thing to me that validates Carlson's performance was getting guys out in the 13th, after they'd seen him already once in the game. They knew what to expect, and he still got guys out. To me, that seems to imply that he could be for real, and could be somewhere between Tallet & Downs long term. Or he'll prove why I shouldn't blog about minor leaguers after a ridiculously impressive outting against a poor hitting team. Either way...

Should I be worried about Scott Downs? 5 BB in 7 innings, giving him a 1:1 K:BB rate. I'm a huge supporter of Downs, and I know it's a small sample size. But I'm worried that if he doesn't get his control at least back to 07 levels, the set-up situation will go from terrific to bad in a hurry. Sure doesn't help that Accardo's doing horrible either. Good thing we got Carlson here pretending to be BJ Ryan of 06...

Eckstein is performing around career levels, and so far I have to say I'm unimpressed. His lack of ability to get the ball out of the infield is really pissing me off. That being said - could part of his problem be due to the fact he isn't used to seeing these pitchers? He's been in the NL for a while, so it's possible the reason he hasn't been very successful is the fact he isn't used to seeing these AL pitchers. Even I think Eck's slugging should be higher than it is, which leads me to believe that when he sees these pitchers a second time around he should be more like the leadoff guy we expected. Right now, he just seems to get on base by taking pitches or getting hit by them.

Switching Gears

Rotowire has some very cool news about how some of the Jays did in the minors the last few days:

Low Single-A Lansing's Justin Jackson went 4-for-5 with a triple and a double on Wednesday.

The 19-year-old Jackson is batting .311/.446/.511 with five steals in six tries. This after the 2007 supplemental first-round hit just .187 in Rookie ball last year. A toolsy shortstop, he went into the season as one of the Jays' most intriguing prospects anyway.

This is great news considering the revolving door the Jays have had at SS for what seems like forever. I loved the Jackson pick, thought it was an absolute steal. He's supposedly a stud defensively and the question's always been his bat. I think he can be an above average SS, and it's nice to see he's successful in stealing (5/6 successful SB). The batting line is impressive, but what I like the most is the 130 point difference between OBP and BA. Not only does it suggest he's got good bat speed, and makes good contact, but he has a good eye and can work a walk.

Kyle Ginley fanned 10 in 6 2/3 scoreless innings Tuesday for low Single-A Lansing.

Ginley wasn't quite as impressive as hoped at Lansing in his first full season last year, but with a 1.53 ERA and a 21/3 K/BB in 17 2/3 innings so far this year, he's off to a great start as a repeater. The Jays could push him up to high-A ball within a month or two. He might have a future as a fourth or fifth starter.

I don't know much about Ginley, but that's a pretty dominant performance. Add in a 21:3 K:BB ratio and I'm sold.

Twitchy.

Morning Update

The optimist says, "we've got Jesse Litsh as a 5th starter" and the realist says "yes, we do, but who are the crucial 6-8 guys when injuries inevitably arrive?"

The waters became somewhat clearer yesterday with news Kyle Lohse is on the verge of signing with the Cardinals. JP says we never had the money to sign him anyway (a lousy $4 million? we're that hard up?), so this was an admittedly weak fantasy that existed only in the minds of blogosphere hacks like me.

Alan Ryan squeezes out some info from our fearless leader:

"We'll probably stretch (Brian) Wolfe out," Ricciardi said. "He could possibly be a starter. Kane Davis is going to get stretched a little. David Purcey, obviously, is a consideration, but not right now. Randy Wells is somewhat of a consideration."

Non-roster left-hander John Parrish might have fit the bill – he broke in as a starter with the Orioles – but Ricciardi said he is going too well out of the bullpen right now. "We're not that smart," he said with a laugh. "All of a sudden we make him a starter. ... We could screw the whole thing up."

Ok, ok, so we're going to get this done internally. We've got the warm bodies, they just have to be used creatively. And someone(s) will have to Step Up.

I'm moving away from some of my initial alarm at our post-Casey starting depth situation. If we do indeed need an injury replacement in April, who's to say that we actually need one pitcher to fill the gap? If our 7th man continues to gather dust at the end of the bullpen, why not coordiate the efforts of a couple of arms that're capable of going 3 IP each? Something along the lines of a Tallet/Wolfe arrangement. Call it a "two-headed monster" if you to talk like JP. I think this could get us through a couple of turns in the rotation and buy a bit of time for other options (see: Dave Purcey) to present themselves. Just thinking aloud...

Wilner notes that Zaunnie's working well with new hitting coach Gary Denbo, who has had him open his stance up a bit to get a better look at the ball. The early results have been good. Shaun Marcum isn't having so much luck with his sinker, a pitch that got pounded repeatedly by the Tribe yesterday. Wilner figures he'll jettison it entirely if he doesn't get it working effectively his next time out. Bastian notes that Marcum wanted to incorporate the pitch so he would have a nice ground ball option a la Roy Halladay and was lit up yesterday simply because he went to this little work in progess again and again in counts where he'd normally use his deadly changeup. Everyone should be more like Doc, so Shaunnie is to be comended.

Adam Lind is showing some maturity. There was nothing wrong with him per se last year during his lacklustre callup, but his swing was "a mess" as he describes it. He took his first taste of failure and went back to square one in the offseason, rebuilding the sweet stroke that had us all salivating this time last year. Will likes to think he'll force his way back up around the time Shannon Stewart strains his hammy for the first time. I like to think that, too.

Lind, Curtis Thigpen, Robinson Diaz, Joe Inglett, and flavour of the month Buck Coats have all been sent down to Syracuse. I guess this means Jon from the Mockingbird doesn't have to eat a pound of raw chicken, which is good news for his lower intestine.

As if you already didn't know that Alex Rios is a million times cooler than you are, but he also has a remote controlled toy helicopter. And the affections of millions of fine young things from Mobile, Alabama to Yellowknife, NWT, but that's beside the point.

Armando Benitez is in a jolly mood at least. He makes $700g if he makes the team as a middle relief guy.

Team Canada's goin' to the Olympics in Red China! The Tao of Steib waxes ecstatic, we concur with their enthusiasm. Jeff Blair gives the lads a look in his commentary piece.

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

I salute MLB's efforts to expand into China even though they're less likely to succeed than, say, a Pakistani campaign to bring cricket to the United States.

I spent about five weeks in China during the summer of 2006 and was curious enough about the state of the American pastime in the People's Republic that I had the missus get on the blower to see if we could get some tickets for a game.

When we spoke to a secretary for the Beijing Tigers, the Yankees of the four-team China Baseball League (take it for what it's worth), she first seemed shocked that a lao wai (a non-Asian foreigner) was interested in taking in a game. She was even more baffled by my request for a jersey, t-shirt, or hat, since only players wore those, right? In any event, it all came to naught; she knew neither when nor where the club's next game would take place, which indicates that the CBL is less organized than your average North American T-Ball League.

Despite numerous obstacles (the Chinese have a built-in inferiority complex when it comes to team--and especially mens' team--sports, noone will actually buy official MLB merch when they can get knockoffs for pennies on the dollar, the practice of using umbrellas on sunny days, blocking the view of other spectators, etc.), the MLB has high hopes in the country. I'm keeping tabs and will return to this should anything interesting crop up in the future.

Before I get into real Jays stuff, I'll leave this by noting that the best place in China hands down is the former German naval outpost, Tsingtao (Qingdao). The city is a bustling port and major brewery town now (one part of the imperialist legacy that survived the Cultural Revolution) known as Beer City Asia. Every shop, vendor, news agent, restaurant, etc., had multiple kegs set up out on the sidewalk and you can spend your day walking around town filling your cup for a couple of dimes or so a throw as you meander the streets taking in buddhist temples and turn of the century German architecture. If you want to take some beer back to your hotel, you can go with bottles, or, if you're feeling adventuresome, take home a plastic shopping bag full. It's sold by the kilogram and haggling on price is all part of the game. Your third kg will get pretty flat by the time you're ready to drink it, but still...

The next wave of Casey Janssen updates... Blair writes that this is a "deeply personal" injury for the club (and Casey, of course) because Janssen was one of JP's early guys and the organization is very sensitive to criticism of its drafts. His shoulder woes were a known problem as early as September of last year--which throws new light on what happened two days ago--but JP kept it under his hat so as not to weaken his hand in trade discussions. JP's not panicking and he's rejected a FA fill-in (Kyle Lohse) out of hand because the well is dry.

I don't really really like that. If Reed gets shipped to the Mets, we save about $2 million, which is about what you'd pay for 2/3 of a season from Kyle Lohse before moving him at the trade deadline if all else is going well. It doesn't seem like JP feels enough urgency to go the trade route.

Enter Rule V pickup Randy David Wells? I'll do a profile today or tomorrow.

Wilner is pretty chuffed about Burnett's changeup. Bastian says V-Dub's shoulder is doing great.

Canada presses on in its bid for Olympic Baseball Gold. Jays pitcher Aaron Wideman (A+) is a name to watch.

ELSEWHERE:

* It really kicked off between the Yankees and Rays yesterday and it's abundantly clear which side was in the wrong. The issue of playing too hard always crops up when a player gets hurt as a result of a collusion in spring training; we've seen this before. The Yankees took issue when a Rays farmhand ran one of their farmhands at the plate (names are unimportant, neither was going to be in the bigs this year). There was no malicious intent and I think the Rays side adequately expressed regret that the Yankees catcher was injured (he's expected to miss 10 weeks). If you make $10+ million a year, as most Yankees do, then yes indeed, ST is something that can be approached as a tedious but necessary pre-season annoyance--this is pretty much how YES characterized it for Yankee stars in the Jays-Yanks game the other day. But there are also alot of minor leaguers in camp who are battling tooth and nail for a roster spot, or often a spot in AAA rather than AA. They have as much of a right to play hard and slide headfirst as someone like Jason Giambi does to leave in the fourth inning and spend the rest of the afternoon golfing.

The Yankees turned retaliation, ridiculuous of its own right in ST, into escalation. Evan Longoria, the Rays stud prospect and probable 3B this year, was beaned. That should have ended it, but the Yanks play to win, even if it is a silly game of tit for tat. Ghoulish-looking Shelly Duncan later did a pretty good impression of a Ty Cobb slide into second, burying his cleats into Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura's thigh, drawing blood. The Rays, especially sensitive after being ran roughshod over by another AL East bully last year in ST, proceeded to throw down like men. Here are some photos from D-Ray's Bay. Expect this to carry over into the regular season, as if we needed any more reason to hate the Yankees.

* Still with the Rays, Rocco Baldelli is unwell. He has "some type of metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities", which is medical speak for a condition that prevents his muscles from recovering, thereby leaving him fatigued all the time. Doctors really have no idea how long it'll take to overcome this, and health trumps baseball. He starts the season on the DL.

* The Boston Herald reports that the Bosox too feel that they could use another starter. I guess we're not alone in that boat... And less seriously, "Red Sox hurler Clay Buchholz and Penthouse Pet of the Year Erica Ellyson are reportedly an item." Mmmhmm.

-- Johnny Was

Son of a bitch

As Johnny pointed out, 5th starter candidate Casey Janssen is done for the year with a torn labrum. Fan 590 broke the news (but the link is to Rotoworld), and this really, mother fucking sucks.

The Fan 590 in Toronto reports that Casey Janssen will miss the season with a torn labrum. The Toronto Star has since confirmed the news.

Janssen will undergo surgery after cutting a Tuesday warmup short due to pain in his right shoulder. Jesse Litsch will likely break camp as the team's fifth starter, and suddenly that Armando Benitez signing makes a little more sense. Janssen was a workhorse for the Jays last season, appearing in 70 games and finishing 2-3 with a stellar 2.35 ERA. Mar. 12 - 10:26 am et

As far as injuries go, this is really bad news. I'm not an expert on torn labrums, so I may be overstating things, but this could be an issue that lasts beyond the year. Torn labrums are difficult to recover from, and it's possible Janssen may never pitch the same again. Damn shame, cause I had a ton of faith in him.

In his absence, as Roto points out, Litsch will most likely take the 5th spot. Perennial victory candidate Chacin is likely headed to AAA as Johnny pointed out, so the once sufficient depth the Jays had at starting pitching is quickly being depleted. Potential options on the 40 man roster include: Banks, Chacin, Purcey, Davis Romero (although I doubt he can start..), and Randy Wells.

From the list above, it seems that the best option is going to be praying to whatever Gods you believe in that Doc, AJ, Dusty, Marcum & Litsch stay healthy all year. Randy Wells does look like a better pickup, assuming he has any chance of starting in an emergency. Romero won't be called up to start, Banks is Towers in the making, and we all know what not to expect from Chacin. Purcey is the wild card - if he can put together a solid season and move past his control issues, we've got a legitimate option.

At this point I guess the next best option is to hope Parrish's spring showing is not a fluke, and that Arnsberg and crew have fixed his delivery. By that of course, I mean the walks better fucking be down as he stretches out in AAA if he wants to be the first guy called up.

I'm coming around to Johnny's idea of signin Lohse. He's league average, and he'll eat up some innings. Beyond that, it keeps Litsch's service time down and gives him a chance to work at AAA. We're going to need depth as the season goes on, and getting all the help we can get would be awesome. Especially if Johnson gets traded, we might just find ourselves with an extra 3 million to throw at someone. While I would gladly put on the uniform and pitch for the league minimum, I wouldn't be opposed to JP signing Lohse.

The only caution I want to put on this, is that Lohse has been league average in the NL, in Cinci and in Philly. What worries me is he did slightly better in Cinci than Philly, a part I must assume is due to facing inferior lineups. The Braves, Mets & Marlins had the 3rd, 4th and 6th best offensive lineups in the NL, respectively. So part of his drop off was probably due to facing these lineups more often. Although it was a fairly small sample size in Philly.

His last good year in the AL was 2005, so it'd be a risky signing. But if we're going to be cautious, and try to keep Litsch's service time down & let him get just a little more experience, it'd be worth it.

While Janssen wasn't going to play a huge role in the 5th starters spot, this does have a pretty big ripple effect as far as the rest of the season is concerned. That being said, I completely disagree with Roto on the Benitez signing making any sense. As far as I'm concerned, the pen wouldn't have included Janssen, and it will include: Ryan, Accardo, League, Downs, Frasor, Tallet & Wolfe. Benitez is just minor league depth, and the move doesn't get any better or worse because Janssen is injured.

If I remember correctly, a fifth starter isn't needed until April 12th or so. This does give the team a decent amount of time to find a fifth guy. And while this next comment isn't intended as a slight to Gibbons, I think that heading into the season we have to be very cautious about the pitch counts faced by the starters. We still have a phenomenal bullpen, one that anybody with a clue will vouch for as one of the best in the AL, if not the majors. Let's take advantage of that depth and make sure the remaining starters can stay healthy, and productive for the rest of the season.

Twitchy.

Janssen Done for '08

There's only one way to express how I feel about this unfortunate turn of events: Tabarnak ma caliss.

I was trying to be cautiously optimistic that we'd see Janssen back in the bully this year, but news arrives from the Star that Mighty Casey "will have surgery for a torn labrum in California next Tuesday or Wednesday, and is gone for the season."

JP isn't pushing the panic button, but Batter's Box says he's looking to trade for another starter. I'm both fearful and excited... If JP went big here he'd also cover his ass for AJ Burnett's departure via the old opt out. Should JP trade key prospects now, he could always recover new ones by moving AJ at the deadline, too.

If JP does want to go big, his mentor Billy Beane could offer up Joe Blanton or Rich Harden.

It's hard not to like Blanton, but he's got a lot of mileage on his 27-year-old arm. On the plus side, he's got good control and eats alot of innings. On the negative side, he didn't really have homer issues in Oakland, but he has middling K/9 IP numbers and puts a lot of balls in the air. He's only had three starts in Toronto, an absolute gem, a quality start, and a real stinker. You'd have to pay up, though, because he's under club control for three more years. Rotoworld says the Yankees are expressing interest, but Beane wants the moon and the stars. They should be alot more desperate than we are and I can't say I'd be sad to see the A's rob them blind of prospects

Rich Harden... Rotoworld confirms that he is available if healthy. At $4.5 million for this year and a club option for $7 million in '09, you're not going to get skinned dollar-wise. His injury-riddled career (13 starts over the past two years) probably drives his price down lower than Blanton's. Is he the next Roy Halladay or the next AJ Burnett (or Kerry Wood)? He's Canadian, too, but this is a baseball trade designed to improve the ball club, not a marketing decision designed to sell tickets.

I'd go with Harden.

On the FA market, there's Kyle Lohse, Jeff Weaver (god no!), and a bunch of guys you'd have to be totally hammered to sign like Bruce Chen, Ryan Drese, Casey Fossum, Zach Day and various other shit leopards.

We either cover this internally (Purcey, Romero, Parrish), go with a weak FA (Lohse), or make a major trade. We shall see...

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Casey Janssen is out "indefinitely", which means that no one knows yet if/how seriously injured he really is or how long it'll be before he starts throwing again. The results of his MRI are in, but the Sun says that the club isn't ready to share them with the unwashed masses just yet. Start lighting the little white candles.

Early reaction from the chattering masses of Jays fandom quickly morphed from "oh, this is terrible" to "this must somehow be JP/Gibby's fault" in a matter of seconds. If you jumped to that conclusion, consider yourself rebuffed with extreme prejudice via MacLeod:

Gibbons said Janssen had a sore shoulder a couple of times last year, but it was not serious.

"It was no big deal," Gibbons said before yesterday's Grapefruit League game at Legend's Field, a 6-1 victory by the New York Yankees. "We gave him two or three days off and he was fine."

Another mistaken assumption from many yesterday was that the Armando Benitez signing was a reaction to the Janssen injury. As it turns out, that deal was done earlier on in the day (for some reason). MacLeod's reporting that he's badly out of shape but is throwing the ball well. His best hope of making the club is as a mop-up man. Get him a ticket to Syracuse already, will you?

Alan Ryan speculates that lefty invitee John Parrish could be stretched out to give Litsch some competition for the final spot in the rotation, but it sounds more like he was thinking aloud than reflecting on club policy. I said yesterday that we should throw some dough at Kyle Lohse, a 1-year deal for $3 million?, and I haven't changed my mind overnight.

The Mets are indeed still expressing interest in Reed Johnson, who is "looking good" in spring traing so far according to Jays officials. Hahahaha! Sparky's been a loyal foot soldier and I guess there's some consulation for him going to a playoff contender if this goes through. He'll have to learn Spanish, though, but still. He'd get to steal bases, too!

We already knew this, but Gibby is making clear to all that Gus Chacin is not competing for a starting job and is almost surely ticketed for Syracuse.

ELSEWHERE:

* I never got the whole "Juan Rivera is the odd man out" line from the Angels beat. Back in 2006 the former-Expo had a breakout age 27 season--his first as an everyday player--and put up a very Alex Rios-y line. It all went pear-shaped in winter ball, where he broke his leg. He lost pretty much all of last season as a result. He plays all three OF positions and has no major difference between his lefty-righty splits.

With Torii Hunter in centre and Vlady in right, allegedly ahead of Rivera on the LF depth chart are Garret Anderson (a sentimental fave screaming for full time DH duties), Gary "Sarge" Matthews Jr. (he of the outrageous contract), and Reggie Willits (a scrappy little guy who swipes bags and has been threatened by Mike Scioscia with a savage beating if he should ever hit a homerun). I'd take Rivera over all three of them, but that's just because I like players who can hit and/or aren't old and broken down.

Lo and behold, new Angels GM Tony Reagins says that while the OF situation is crowded now he isn't going to just going to dump a solid player as other GMs come calling for a bargain. (Omar Minaya, I'm looking at you!) While Rivera might be a depth guy this year, he's still under control through 2009. This is pretty great news because it takes off a superior righty OF bat off the market that desperate club's would've preferred to Reed's. Haha, Mets!

* Josh Beckett is highly unlikely to make the club's trip to Japan. It's a two game set with the A's on neutral ground, but the crowd should be heavily (if not entirely) pro-Boston. Instead of Beckett-Blanton, Matsuzaka-Harden, the Bosox will have to throw out whom exactly? Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester?

* It's really too bad that Bill James works for the Red Sox front office, but he doesn't let that stop him from sharing all sorts of fun information useful to rival clubs.

* It really doesn't matter who was right or wrong: is there anyone in this world beyond Yankeedom who'd sympathize with the Yankees over the Rays should things get nasty?

* Are you feeling CRAZY? Then why not give your life savings to Lenny Dykstra's Luxury Car Wash/Investment Firm!

-- Johnny Was

Injuries to Starting Pitchers are Strictly Prohibited by Law!

Casey Janssen? Why, God? Why?

Hrm, well, hopefully somebody cleaned up on his 2008 Jays injury pool because it was unexpected to the extreme that he'd be the first victim of the "I" word.

Before we jump to any conclusions, it must be noted that we really don't know if this is anything serious or not just yet. Janssen smartly took the extreme precaution of raising the alarm at the the earliest possible instance, which is commendable since he did get himself temporarily in JP's dog house for concealing back woes in 2006. He's gone in for an MRI, which may well show that there's really nothing the matter with his throwing shoulder and this was all just normal aches and pains.

What we do know, however, is that this pretty much kills any hope of Janssen heading North as our fifth starter.

Since Janssen is a valued contributor to the club (unlike Victor Zambrano), this injury will have to be handled with kid gloves (unlike it was last year with Victor Zambrano). Even if he is pitching again before the end of spring training, there just won't be enough time for him to stretch out for starting duties by the end of the month. If he's healthy, he'll be back in the bully with the rest of BJ's Men, which means somebody like Wolfe or Tallet undeservedly gets bumped. That being the case, newly acquired shit-disturber Armando Benitez doesn't have a taco's chance of making the roster.

The upshot is that the starting job Janssen was highly likely to win has now pretty much been thrown into Jesse Litsch's lap. Gustavo Chacin threw two hot, stinky innings against the Yankees today and I think it's time for the final member of the Chacin Man Booster Club to turn off the lights on his way out. This is a one man race from here on out, provided there are no further injuries to the staff.

Don't get me wrong, I don't dislike Litsch or anything, I just liked Janssen better. Waaaaay better. From the club's perspective it would've been preferable to hold Jesse back at Syracuse so he could gain experience; he has a mere two AAA starts under his belt and his major league peripherals show that he danced with the devil in 2007. It would also have been nice to have him ready as the first in line to come up as an injury replacement and, selfishly, to keep his service clock from ticking.

I think we all accept that everything has to go perfectly this year for the Jays to get a deep whiff of a playoff berth. If Janssen's not starting this year we're pretty much pooched when one of Doc/AJ/McG/Marcum gets hurt with Litsch already in the rotation unless everything comes together beautifully for big lefty Dave Purcey. Or less probably, Ricky Romero. I'm really pulling for Purcey. You can probably abandon all hope if Gus Chacin gets more than a handful of starts this year and you know we're dusted if you see any of Josh Banks before September.

Please don't throw tomatoes at me, but I think it might be a good idea to get something done with Kyle Lohse. He could be stashed in the pen if he's not needed as a starter. His ERA+ has been on the right side of 100 (just barely) two years out of rhe last three and a fair chunk of those innings came in hitters' parks in Cincy and Philly. And if everything turns out rosy by mid-season, it's pretty likely you could find someone to take his contract off the books and chuck in a low-value prospect. Apparently the Orioles expressed some interest last week, but that's been about it.

On a brighter note, we were quite pleased to receive shout outs from a couple of the big swingin' dicks of the Jays blogosphere, DJF and The Tao of Steib. We just take it one game at a time, always give 110% and try to get our uniforms dirty...

-- Johnny Was

Morning Roundup

Even though I'm pretty much openly rooting against Jesse Litsch to win the fifth spot in the rotation this spring, I can still admit that it's kind of cute to see that he's trying so hard. We were all so caught up with JP's left field shenanigans that this one sort of fell to the back burner.

Gibby more or less threw down the gauntlet for both Litschy and Janssen yesterday in the tone of a man who was on his last can of Diet Coke and needed to get to the supermarket to buy more RIGHT AWAY:

"We know what the veterans can do," Gibbons said shortly after the Blue Jays' arrival at the Bright House Field for yesterday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies...

"Now it's time for these young kids to start showing what they've got," Gibbons said yesterday. "Now it's time — they've got everything working.

"Veterans you can count on, they have track records. The young kids, they don't. They've got to perform."

Litsch did perform well yesterday against the Phillies, surrendering only one run and two hits over four innings. With six Ks! Jesse Litsch? Yep, six Ks. Ryan Howard did go deep, as he is prone to do from time to time.

Still, as well as Litsch pitches over the next three weeks the fact remains that this should be Casey Janssen's job to lose.

Some credit must go to Alan Ryan for extracting some comments that allow Litsch's inner Einstein to shine through:

"You can't be anybody different than who you are," said the philosopher. "I just go out and be the same dude.

"You go out with the same mentality and let things happen. You go out there with pressure on your back ... well, that's where bad stuff happens."

Ok, so far so good.

"You've also got to come out wanting it," he said, elaborating on his mental approach. "You know, wanting it every day.

"You've got to want things. If you go out wanting things, they come easier than just putting them on a shelf."

The things I want, come easier, shelving? It's not quite "you can stuff your sorries in a sack!" but you get the idea. Generally.

Wilner agrees that Casey Janssen is the better candidate for fifth starter because Litsch still has much to learn (and was really crappy against lefties last year). He also expresses a hearty skepticism of walk machine John Parrish. My head hurts from nodding in agreement so much.

Also, Gibby is planning on holding Dustin McGowan back from his next scheduled start against the Yankees in favour of Gustavo Chacin. He wants New York to see as little of his young ace-in-the-making as possible now, so he's opted for someone who has no chance of throwing serious innings for the club this year. B'dum tish!

Zaunnie thinks AJ Burnett is making the best of a bad situation regarding his nail by learning to pitch to contact and getting hitters out with a fastball-sinker-changeup combo. And apparently the dude is working on a slider, too. Zaunnie in his own words:

"The fact he's not throwing curves all spring is actually going to save some wear and tear on the arm. More than that, it's going to make him a better pitcher because he's leaning on the other pitches right now, polishing those up, so that when he does start throwing his breaking ball he'll be able to get some quick outs on sinkers and changeups and not have to go three, four, five pitches deep in the count and strike everybody out to get his outs. He'll be able to do it quickly."

Blair weighs in on Barry Bonds. He calls the Rays a young, exciting, Expo-ish club (not sure that that's a compliment, but still) that'll make some noise in '09. But they're not ready now and their offseason has been all about clearing out the bad apples, so BB doesn't make sense. Not so the Mets, Chisox and Cubs, one of whom he figures will bite on the Sultan of Steroids. Ok, fair enough.

ELSEWHERE:

The Bosox are cautiously optimistic that bbq pork enthusiast Josh Beckett isn't in serious trouble after his recent bout of back spasms. For you medical buffs:

According to Francona, the Sox have deemed Beckett’s injury “muscular” in nature, meaning the club has ruled out much bigger problems, like ruptured or herniated disks.

Nevertheless, the club is to depart for its season-opening series in Japan in just nine days and it's unclear if Beckett will be able to make the 17-hour flight. Seriously, flying to Asia sucks. It's pretty far away... So, probably no Beckett or Matsuzaka for their season opener. I feel for those Japanese fans who are paying 4 billion yen for tickets to a game Tim Wakefield is starting.

-- Johnny Was

Hypothetical ramblings

There's been a lot of focus on Janssen's status being determined by the health of BJ Ryan. I think they're looking at the wrong player. Regardless of Ryan's status; League, Accardo, Downs, Frasor & Tallet should be able to handle the 7th through 9th innings without a significant problem, whether or not Ryan's ready to roll. And let's face it, Janssen would pretty much be doing the 7th-8th innings within a week of Ryan being healthy. What a waste of his arm that'd be.

I don't agree that a player should determine Janssen's fate - other than Casey's performance. And to date, it's been pretty damn good. But that aside, if I had to pick a player to determine Janssen's fate, it'd be AJ.

Obviously this is just a random thought on my part, but how many of you believe this nail problem of AJ's is as simple as it sounds? Maybe I'm jaded by the fact BJ's doctor said they were rushing him, as I suspected they were. Maybe it's because last year, they told us Ryan's back was a problem, and he ended up getting surgery on the elbow. But you know what they say, the elbow's connected to the - spinal cord...

While I have no real evidence to prove this, I just want to focus on a hypothetical situation. What if AJ isn't ready go opening day? There's obviously no evidence he can't, but let's say his nail still isn't good to go. He isn't going to throw his fastball all day, and his change up has a neon "hit me" sign on it. So if he doesn't have Uncle Charlie, he might not be capable of starting as the #2.

While this is an overreaction, but what it does bring up is the importance of Janssen in the rotation. If Casey is the #5, and AJ isn't ready, we can bring up Janssen to the 4 and Litsch becomes the 5 (or another player if we don't wanna screw with his service time...although I'm drawing a blank as to who...doesn't smell like victory to me). However, if Litsch or even Mr. Victory himself starts off as the #5, and Janssen is headed for the pen, this could cause a problem.

Now, my point is less effective at the start of the season. Janssen is being prepped to start now, so if AJ starts on the d/l Janssen can still be put in the rotation. But again, looking further into the season if a starter gets injured, having Janssen in the rotation means we've got solid options behind him. If Litsch or another is the 5, and Janssen is in the pen, all of our rotation depth disappears.

I'll stop now that I'm rambling, but I'm definetly more worried about AJ than I should be...

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Cathal Kelly writes that Casey Janssen's role this year will be tied to the Beej's health: if the Beej comes North at the end of the month, Casey's a starter, if not, he's back in the pen. We all knew that there was going to be a linkage between the two, but is it really going to be that strict?

Would the club really forgo using Janssen as a starter, which JP strongly feels is his most useful role to play, just because the Beej starts the season a month late? Even knowing that if he starts in the pen, it'll be more difficult to stretch him back out should he be needed as an injury replacement if one of Doc/AJ/McGowan/Marcum gets hurt early?

Really, it just doesn't seem wise to use Janssen out of the pen in '08 unless a) other viable 5th starters emerge--Chacin? pppft! Litsch? not ready; or b) the Beej has a serious setback and is lost for most or all of the upcoming season.

Kelly calls the decision on Janssen's role this year a "difficult" one, but it's really not. Yes, it will be shaped by external factors to a certain extent, but the right choice is pretty obvious. Forgotten Man Jason Frasor can adequately cover Casey's pen innings next year, and Wolfe can cover his. Easy peezy.

In related news, the Beej will not be getting his first taste of grapefruit action (mmm, grapefruit action...) this weekend as early hoped. His surgeon, Dr. Tim Kremchek, put the kibosh on that. Gibby says he'll give the Beej a couple more simulated games and then hopefully have him appear in a real fake game about 7-10 days from now.

Clarifying:

“It's not a setback,” said Gibbons. “The doctor just feels better about doing it like that because when (Ryan) gets into a real game, the adrenaline is going to start flowing, he's going to push himself that little bit harder.

“He's really had just one game type situation and that was yesterday, this way he'd get two more.”

The decision comes after Ryan said “now is not really the time to be holding back a lot,” following an 18-pitch simulated game Wednesday. By all accounts he looked good in that contest and plans to pitch him Saturday followed.

ELSEWHERE:

The Giants need a shortstop to replace the injured Omar Vizquel; time to start some crazy J-Mac for Tim Lincecum internet trade rumours?

Rando CP guy checked in our fave Jason Bay yesterday because the Jays happened to be playing his hapless Pittsburgh Pirates. Bay admitted that his spot on offseason critiques of his club's crappiness was the by-product of frustration with what was a poor season individually and collectively from a group that could have performed better. He has the same kind of optimism for 2008 that I do when I buy 6/49 tickets, but that doesn't mean he has a long-term future with the club:

Despite the sunny outlook, Bay's days in Pittsburgh may very well be numbered.

New general manager Neal Huntington opted against stripping down the long-suffering club — mired in a run of 15 straight losing seasons — during the off-season, deciding instead to give them another chance in 2007 before taking that route.

Should the Pirates continue to struggle, Bay and other veterans with market value could be moved for young players as part of a rebuilding program. If they start winning, they may try to add on to make a run in the weak National League Central.

None of this seems particularly surprising or offputting to Bay.

"I'd love nothing more than to do it here having been here through all the bad times, kind of like the Tigers, through the 120 losses and all of a sudden a couple of years removed from that, boom," said Bay. "There's a lot more to be said for that than just kind of going to a team.

"At the same time, it's easier to say that than for it to actually happen. There's some steps we need to take from where we're at, it's not going to be an overnight thing. If it looks like it's going to take more time than I have, does that make a lot of sense?"

As Rando notes, Pirates GM Neal Huntington is most likely biding his time for a deadline deal in the hopes that Bay can rebuild the trade value he lost last year due to a relatively poor season caused by tendinitis in his right knee.

The Jason Bay Tradometer will be adjusted accordingly to these new developments.


-- Johnny Was

Making his case

No real news to report, other than the fact that the Jays offense has been non-existant to date. Stewart seems to be just as ineffective at the plate as Johnson, although Johnson is hitting 250, which probably puts him among the team leaders in BA at this point...

Southpaw favourite for the 5th spot, Casey Janssen put on a show last night. 2 IP, 2 H, 2 K, 0 BB. Also, when I was listening on the radio Janssen's ability to hold the runner came in handy. He's always had a terrific pickoff move, and he's extremely quick to the plate. On an attempted hit and run, the batter missed the pitch, and Ruggiano was thrown out easily by Barajas. It's the little things like this that make him so much more valuable in a starting role.

McGowan also had a solid outing, going 2 IP, allowing 2 hits but no K or BB. Beyond that, the most important part is both Dusty & Janssen threw a ton of strikes.

Spring Training game is on CITY TV @ 12:30 I believe, so I expect that all 3 of you who read this (the three being myself, will & johnny, of course :p) to watch it, and enjoy it.

Oh right, sorry Will :(.

Twitchy.