Ten! Ten Wonderful Wins!

Your hometown team was ballin' again today, as they are lately wont to do, picking up two more impressive victories as if they were drunken sluts in a Girls Gone Wild video. In the first game AJ Burnett threw seven innings of 1 hit ball (he had a no-hitter through five) and struck out 7 "good guys." In the second, three Blue Jays homered (Scutaro, Rolen, and Wells) and the Jays cruised to the 8-2 win.

PLAYOFFS!!

Also noted in passing, Alex Rios was the AL player of the week last week after hitting .414 in the first week of September. Continuing the running report on the progress he has made under Cito, Alex is now hitting .324 - .353 - .568 - .923 in 67 games played. Pro-rated to 162 games, Rios would have an incredible 104 XBH.

By the way, the Jays as a team are now 43-27 since Cito took over, which is a .614 winning percentage. That pace over a full season will get you 100 wins - only one AL team (the Angels) have more wins in that period of time. In case it escaped your notice, something similar is happening in Houston. The difference is, though, that the Astros are overachieving (they have an overall run deferential of -16, while the Jays have an RD of +96 (third best in the majors). And all this almost entirely without Dustin McGowan, with Marcum ineffective in half of his starts since the switch, without Aaron Hill ever having swung a bat under Cito, with Scott Rolen being a non-factor and Greg Zaun almost entirely out of gas.

THIS is what I was talking about back in March when I said this was a very good team. It's obviously not what I envisioned, but you never know how the details are going to play out. I'm NOT and never have been in the "Gibbons is a moron" crowd...I still tend to think he's going to get another job at some point (probably in the NL) and have a fine little career. And I was very adamant in April and June that this group of players could not continue to lose in such an aberrational way. BUT, I don't have a factual way to argue with the folks who will argue that Cito made the difference and JP blundered badly in not making the switch sooner EXCEPT to say this:

The Jays went 20-10 in May and were five games over and were 4 games out and well positioned to have had an excellent year. They had hit poorly in key situations (freakishly so) but had every reason to expect that to regress to the mean and to look ahead with optimism. Nineteen days later the Jays had played their manager out of a job. I, for one, do NOT consider three weeks "waiting too long" - even if the math knocks us out of the post season (7 games out with 18 to play!). If the Jays had played mediocre ball the whole time under Gibby, then yeah, but a 20-10 month rightfully buys a man some time.

Meanwhile, if we sweep the White Sox it will be, I believe, the longest winning streak in club history.

~WillRain

What, me under-achive?

For all that has been said about the disappointing results of the Jays offense this year, and for all his Alfred E. Rios space cadet moments, Alex Rios seems to have been the one guy who really really liked the idea of Cito Gaston as his manager. Including yesterdays outburst against the Red Sox, Rios has a very nice result for the part of the season (50 games now) that Gaston has been at the helm.

Observe:

200 AB, 20 Doubles, 4 Triples, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 15 SB
.315 - .346 - .545 - .891

Now, let's pro-rate that to 162 games:
65 doubles, 13 triples, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 49 SB

That'd be a pretty decent year, eh?

On a less encouraging note, while looking up those stats I stumbled across something very grim about Scott Rolen. I have resolutely defended him by saying he had one horrible month which wrecked an otherwise good season. But what I discovered is that outside of a nine game hot streak in late June (in which he was incredibly hot) he was a very bad hitter from May 31 on until they shut him down. Over that period - with those nine games set aside, Rolen hit

.180/.275/.255/.530 in 161 at bats.

That means that for all practical purposes, he came off the DL in April and had 34 good games before he started struggling. That means, and I'm man enough to admit it, that the Pessimists who warned that Rolen might still have difficulty because of his shoulder are vindicated. It's inexplicable to me that everyone who is supposed to know, from Rolen to the medical people could say "everything is healthy and pain free" and yet he could still not be able to hit well for reasons that can't even be quantified and addressed. But there it is. And unless he gets it back as mysteriously as he lost it - or retires - the Jays are going to have to have big question marks regarding 3B for next year. I don't like saying it but I'll be damned if I can be accused of ducking the fact that my optimism was not born out.

~WillRain

Urging Caution

There was definitely some excitment last night hearing JP announce on JaysTalk that phenom Travis Snider had been called up to AAA, which probably puts him on track for a mid-season call up next year. Snider is undoubtably the most exciting young position player to come through the Jays system since Vernon Wells came up to stay in 2001 and good or ill in 2009, it'll be a pleasure to watch Snider develop with big club.

And there there was some trepidation.

There's little more than 3 weeks left to play in the high minor leagues and Snider's promotion to Syracuse at this point amounts to nothing more than a brief peekaboo at the next rung up the ladder. If it must be said that he played through an elbow injury early in the season, it should also be noted that he hasn't dominated AA either (.258/.351/.456 in 333 ABs).

It's a feather in his cap to make the jump from high A ball to AAA in his age 20 season, but that pat in the back could've also come in the form of a September call-up after finishing out the year in New Hampshire and semi-regular PT in the bigs for a few weeks. Added benefits: give the fan base a glimpse of the future (and sell a few extra tickets to otherwise meaningless games), get the kid a taste of the bigs, then let him start 2009 fresh in Syracuse. No harm done.

I'm urging caution with Snider because two-thirds of the Jays current outfield is made up of promising young hitters who were rushed (by JP) through AAA and stalled during their first go at a full-time job in the bigs. There's no catch-all model for all hitters, but I'd hate to see the same happen to Snider next year after all the promise he's shown early in his pro career.

After dominating AA at age 22 (.923 OPS) in 2003, Alex Rios was called up to Toronto the following year despite scuffling (.665 OPS) through a brief 185-AB pit stop in Syracuse. While his first two seasons in the bigs weren't an unmitigated disaster, it was clear at the time that his game wasn't quite ready for prime time. Two years of service time were burnt for a .721 OPS season with 1 HR and a .703 OPS with 10 HR. Rios was knocking, but he hadn't yet kicked the door down.

Adam Lind followed a similar path, though he was promoted even more aggressively. He probably could have hit anything, anywhere back in 2006 as he actually got better with each successive call up, but he still only ended up with under 300 AAA ABs (and that after only about 2/3 of a season at AA) before coming up as Reed Johnson's injury replacement in 2007. We all know how that ended up, though there's little doubt now that he's a capable big league hitter. Nevertheless, that early promotion did some serious damage to his overall development, something that JP seems quite aware of these days.

I could go outside the organization to cite a few other examples of hitters who were imprudently rushed to the bigs, though none looms larger than Billy Butler, the young Royal whose game most closely resembles Snider's. Maybe Snider is born to hit and can handle the call to the bigs next year at age 21, but the risks of an aggressive promotion schedule have to be weighed against the long-term consequences for both the player and the team. As excited as you all are for him, don't assume that he should be a Jay in 2009.

-- Johnny Was

The Invisible Man, Part Two

Earlier in the year I did an "Invisible Man" section on Lyle Overbay, showing why he was struggling offensively. I'm going to try and do something similar here with Alex Rios.

Rios was signed to a contract extension at the beginning of the season, which made us all very happy that our 850+ OPS defensive stud RF who could play CF in a pinch was going to be here the next 6 or so years. I was going to start off making some bullshit argument about how Rios let the contract get to his head, but that's not the case. In April Rios hit 306/386/449, good enough for an 835 OPS. Rios showed more patience than he normally does which led to the high OBP, which is why nobody really noticed or cared that he only slugged 449 that month.

In May he did his best John McDonald impression - and not with the glove - as he 'hit' 231/270/315 (585 OPS). It was around this time that we started to notice that Rios was struggling significantly, and that for the second straight month he wasn't showing much in the way of power. In June it got a little better, as he hit 320/361/460 (821 OPS). He showed the greatest slugging by month to this point, but don't let the slugging fool you - that was a batting average determined slugging. Had his BA been the same as in April, his slugging would have been an identical 449 in April and June.

Some would attribute his June resurgence to Cito, but again, he wasn't any better in June than he was in April. Until he regains his 06/07 swing, this is essentially his ceiling.

Now, if Rios could hit 280 and get on base with at least a 350-360 OBP, while slugging 450, I don't think anybody would really mind. As an 800 OPS RF with elite defense, Rios would still have a ton of value. But with a career 7.1 BB%, I don't think Rios is going to approach that OBP (of 350-360) without hitting 300. So he's going to need to show a significant amount of power if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer.

Right now there's nothing wrong with Rios' line drive rate - it's 21.2%, above his career mark of 20.5, and identical to his breakout year with the Jays. The number that jumps out of me, and not in a good way, is his GB %. If you're going to be a GB hitter, you need Ichiro, Reyes, or Crawford type speed. Rios is quick, but he's outclassed by those guys in terms of pure speed. So when I see Rios has a 47% GB rate (up nearly 12% from the past few years), a 31.8% FB rate (down nearly 13%!!!) and a HR/FB rate at 4.8% (down 5-7% from the past few years) - I think the problem becomes very obvious.

This really isn't anything shocking. We knew Rios couldn't hit a HR by watching the game with our own eyes. We know he's hit into a ton of double plays (12, which puts him 2 away from a season high). The stats just confirm that all these things are true.

What's surprising, is that he's regressed into the player (I refuse to call him a hitter from this point) that showed up in 2005 - a player with no plate discipline, no power, and untapped potential.

To me, this isn't about Rios not having a game plan, or just being a lazy hitter. That's making an excuse, but it's not dealing with the problem. Someone has to teach or show Rios how to hit the ball into the air again. Because otherwise, we just spent 65 million dollars on a 700 OPS RF. But at least he doesn't clog the bases.

Twitchy.

Wake me up, I must be dreaming

It's only one game, but I think Cito & Tenace have already made a big impact on the team. It's been mentioned before that their goal was to get this team to be more aggressive earlier in the count, and get back to doing whatever it was that got them to the majors - pulling the ball, hitting to all fields - and sticking to that game plan.

The scouting report on the Jays as a team was obviously to get ahead in the count, knowing the Jays would take some pitches, and once ahead expand the zone and take advantage of a pitchers count. But tonight, when Arroyo through fastball after fastball down the middle, the Jays jumped on it and crushed everything Arroyo threw at them.

Alex Rios hit a HR for what seemed like the first time since 2006. I'm really hoping that he's starting to find his groove, rather than him just taking advantage of a ridiculously bad Arroyo. Rolen and Zaun also joined in on the HR fun, and it was nice to see Rolen show some power. As I mentioned earlier, he had a 100 AB streak where he was basically a good singles hitter with discipline.

Adam Lind only went 2-5 last night, driving in a run and boosting his average to 185. He's hitting 500/556/875 since his return to the majors, in a grand total of 8 AB's. If we can call him a bust after 19 at bats, then we should give him an MVP award based on 8 AB's too.

Edit: I forgot to add that I'm really hoping that this offensive outburst has more to do with the Jays being aggressive, and not because Bronson Arroyo sucks.

Lost in the offensive outburst was the return to form of AJ Burnett. He pitched 8 dominant innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 ER, 3BB and 7K's. Tallet was pretty good in the 9th as well, allowing no hits, no walks & striking out one. I still feel a little nervous when he's pitching, but you have to admire the depth of the Jays bullpen that with a 13 run lead, the Jays can trot out a pitcher with a 2.17 ERA heading into the game (now 2.10).

Considering the struggles of virtually every bullpen in the game, it would be wise for the Jays to trade a couple of relievers for prospects or even in a package to help them acquire an upgrade in the lineup. Tallet, Frasor and Wolfe could all be moved, and considering the market for relievers the Jays could expect a decent piece in return. Well, not for Frasor, but for a lefty with a 2.10 ERA who can get RH batters out, and a young, cheap RH reliever in Wolfe, they should be able to get a return.

If any of the names I mentioned are traded, the Jays will not have to go out and find a new reliever. They have several options in AAA, most notably Davis Romero.

The big question on my mind is where do the Jays go from here? The best case scenario is that the offense starts performing to pre-season expectations, and is a middle of the pack AL lineup. Not a great one, but with this pitching staff, enough to have a very competitive season. The other scenario, one we've seen too many times over the past 4-5 years, is that after a big win like this the Jays lose the next two games 2-1 and 6-3. I think tonights game of Halladay vs Harang (who up to this year had been one of the most underrated starters in the NL) will go a long way too showing us if the Jays are for real or not.

Twitchy.

Condolences to my fellow Jays fans

As I'm sure you've heard by now, Armando Benitez and the Jays parted ways today. I don't feel like quoting the article, but suffice to say the Jays told Benitez "it's not you, it's me". Brian Wolfe was brought up to replace him.

Oh, Armando, we hardly knew you. I remember it like it was yesterday - that game against the Orioles that you blew by giving up a 2 run HR, costing us the game (note: it was yesterday). I'll always cherish your return to the National League - you gave up a walk, and an ER in 1/3 of an inning. And that time again Minnesota - your Jays debut - when you gave up another HR and a walk in 1/3 of an inning. Oh Armando - fly free! I'm sure you'll find a team again! The Yankees need an aging MR to fill in for Joba, and you'd be the perfect fit!

In other Jays news - Vernon Wells is back, to which I can only say WTF!!11?!!111? I didn't expect him back till late August, so this is both a good sign for the Jays and a bad sign for my medical career.

Alex Rios continues to stink up the joint by hitting 269/345/346 over his past 26 AB. I don't think the pressure of his contract has gotten to him, but something is clearly wrong with Rios. Is he coasting because of the contract as John Brattain suggests?

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but would it kill the Jays to use Stewart's sprained ankle as an excuse to bring Lind up? Stew's one for his past 21 - Lind went what, 1 for 19 and was optioned to AAA. Look for Stewart to be DFA in the next couple of days as the Jays don't appreciate slumping offensive players.

Twitchy.

The Roundup

Breathe in. Breathe out. That's it.

In a victory so beautiful it simply could not be televised without running the risk of damaging your retinas, the Jays clobbered the A's 12-0. BA Barajas (3-4, 3 doubles, 3 RBI) was playing like a man who'd like a full-time job this year rather than next, Shannon Stewart socked a dinger, and Jesse Litsch carried on just as he did last time out against the Royals. The sole bit of bad news was that David Eckstein crashed into Aaron Hill (2-3), knocking him out of the game. Stop doing that to superior players, ass! Hill is listed as day-to-day; I'm guessing he won't play tonight and Scutaro, with whom Gibby is now smitten like a school girl, steps in there for him.

And Alex Rios somehow managed to go 0 for 6 and ground into 3! double plays. They're gonna have to invent a new kind of sombrero for that sort of ineptitude. Saving it up for the Angels, I hope.

Tonight it's McGowan vs. Jered "skid, brother of skid" Weaver in LAA past your past your bedtime. Nice Barry Melrose mullet, skid! Sorry, had to get that out of my system. ESPN.com's supercomputer says we've got a 50% chance of victory and Matt Stairs has a 19.2% chance of going deep. I like those odds...

Still, I think we all recognize that adding offense in left field will only help improve the Jays' prospects for success this year. MLBTR has compiled a list of guys who could be available. Aside from the usual suspects, you can add Raul Ibanez, Chris Duncan, Juan Rivera and a bunch of losers like Frank Catalanatto.. Pat Burrell? Hrumph.

Jeff Blair goes War and Peace in the Globe Baseball blog, which is cool and all. The highlights:

* The Jays have been playing coy on the June draft, but Godfrey is pushing hard for B.C.'s Brett Lawrie (3B/C) to sell the fans/ownership on a new Canuck angle. Blair doesn't like nationalism determining draft strategy, and I totally agree. Lawrie's a great-looking player and all, but it's unclear what position he'll end up playing long term. The Jays would like to select Brett Walace (1B/3B) with their first pick, but Keith Law doesn't see him dropping that far.

* Barajas will supplant Zaun as the team's no. 1 catcher.

ELSEWHERE:

* Jorge Posada is expected to rejoin the Yankees within a week or so; right after the Jays leave town.

* The Rays fall 5-1 to the Chisox.

-- Johnny Was

I stood all I can stands, I can't stands no more

OK, seriously, what the fuck?

We are now up to 58 double plays grounders in 48 games. That's a pace for 196!! And while I was as excited about anyone, more than most, about the moderately neato offense the Jays put up last week, I'm not so encouraged that I can lay aside the fact that we can outhit the Angles 20-9 in the last two games and lose both of them.

If that's not enough, we get THIS little nugget of insight from Gibbons referred to in Blair's column today:

Gibbons made clear that Eckstein shouldn't expect to be in the lead-off spot when he returns. He plans on sticking with Brad Wilkerson in that role and likes Aaron Hill in the No. 2 spot. That means that Alex Rios will need to hit his way out of his slump in the middle of the order.

I'm FAR from a "Gibby must go!" guy but, fuck, that attitude is just flat unacceptable. Wilkerson is hitting .167 as a Jay and a .477 OPS - and that in over twice as many attempts as Adam Lind got before Gibby decided he had no job for him.

UN - AC - CEPTABLE. I don't give a fuck who you are.

It's questionable you have such a hitter even on your team, given the man's past few years, it's fucking strange you have such a guy in your lineup but maybe what with injuries you have to, but there is NO JUSTIFICATION for leading off a guy like that.

End of discussion.

Compound that by having Rios, who's mired in an 18 for 95 slump (.189) in the #3 spot (traditionally your best hitter) work out of his slump at that critical point in the order....astounding!

And if that's not enough, Rod Barajas is smoking the ball in May and yet the manager of a team who's punchless offense is putting HIS head on the black keep trotting the slumping Zaun out there more often than not. I'm a fan of Zauny and i don't trust Barajas been desperate times call for desperate measures.

There's no doubt in my mind that the team is snakebit offensively at the moment....it only takes watching the incredible number of balls which are very often clean hits that are somehow getting caught over the last few weeks, but that said, when you are fighting or trying to fight your way out of such a situation, you do what you have to do to maximize the tools you have to work with.

Right now Stewart needs to be leading off (and he's not great shakes but in May he's hitting about exactly what we thought we were going to get from Eckstien when we signed him) and Rios needs dropped down and Barajas needs to be getting more AB until he cools. Hell, as hot as he is right now Scutero leading off makes vastly more sense than Wilkerson.

I've always thought Gibby was pretty decent as a manager but if he's actually determined to continue leading off Wilkerson, then I'm not standing up for him any more when folks rag on him. Making a questionable move is one thing, losing your damn mind is something else.

~WillRain

The Roundup

That, my friends, was a stinker.

McGowan finished with what looks like a pretty solid line, though the box score doesn't show that he slow danced with the devil on numerous occasions and did not look particularly sharp (Juan Guzman-y, if you will). Aaron Hill and Alex Rios have to fight for sole possession of the goat horns because both had pathetic ABs in the 9th with the bases loaded and a wild Franky Rodriguez on the mound.

An overly aggressive Hill chose to weakly pop up a ball low and inside on the second pitch he saw, whereas Rios came up determined not to swing at anything (except those two pitches he fouled off, but still...) I'd have choked on my lemonade at the audacity of Rios leaving the bat on his shoulder for a 3-2 fastball had I been drinking any at the time. Hopefully lessons will be learned seeing as those two chuckleheads provided text book examples of what not to do in that situation.

The Oracle sums it up best in a short and sweet lede: "It was as though the last week didn’t happen." True dat. After a solo shot to open the Jays first, the club couldn't score despite getting 8 hits and taking 7 walks. The Angels might have won it on defense, but the Jays total lack of hitting with RISP was deflating after a week of good-ish baseball. Sigh.

Nevertheless, even after last night the Angels are still only 19-39 at the Rogers Centre since 1996, so the odds of them winning again tonight are about as good as the Jays chances of sweeping a series in Texas. Impossible!

Marcum-Garland tonight and again this one isn't televised for those of you without a Rogers cable box. Children's hockey in late May, eh? You chose to be born in this country so don't come complaining to me.

Expect Wonder Boy to return from his hip flexor injury for Thursday's game. The question still remains: should Marco Scutaro be grabbing the lion's share of PT at SS? I don't know and it's not really a debate I'd enjoy having.

Do you dare take a glimpse inside the twisted mind of a madman?

ELSEWHERE:

* Derek Jeter is not headed for the DL after being hit in the wrist by from BB-chucking O's starter Daniel Cabrera last night. Erick Aybar of the Angels probably is after dislocating his pinky at the Rogers Centre. In the grand scheme of things, there's little more than a marginal impact over the remaining two games of the Jays-Angels series.

-- Johnny Was

Notes from my couch

Seeing as I'm too massively hungover after a semi-raucus stag and doe to sustain a coherent line of argument, may I present you with a collection of rando Sunday afternoon thoughts:

So, you're probably wondering who won the toonie toss. That would be this guy, proud owner of a 60 of delicious Crown Royal. Sometimes the sun just shines out of my ass.

If you're going with powder blues, you have to fully commit to them. I thought that was obvious enough that it doesn't need saying, but nothing the Royals are wearing this afternoon (royal blue hat, powder blue jersey and white pants) matchs. Watch for Gil Meche on Mr. Blackwell's worst-dressed list for 2008. Fletcher concurs that the Royals are very silly looking.

Wait? Doesn't Fletcher only call games/tell stories about famous hot dogs after any hope of salvaging the season has been lost? What does this all mean? I'm not willing to let this team break up with me just yet.

Nice to see Alex Rios jogging to second base on that drive he hit to deep right centre to open the game. David "don't mess with" Dejesus dropped the ball when he hit the ground making a pretty impressive attempt at a diving catch and buggered the throw back in to the infield, allowing Rios to advance to third. Had he actually been running he might well have scored. I know he did cross the plate, but still. Outfielders who appear to be day dreaming all time can't be productive players, can they?

I call Gibby out for managerial incompetence earlier in the week and today he shows that maybe he isn't just phoning it in. Today's lineup sees a slumping Vernon Wells dropped from the cleanup spot to 5th, with Rolen moving into the 3 hole. And he rewards the skip by socking a dinger in his first trip. Here's hoping that this becomes a permanent thing, because as all three of us here have noted V-Dub's splits against righties clearly show that he shouldn't be hitting that high up in the order. With his job on the line, Gibby may well be ready to go with the grouping of talent that he believes to be the most likely to win rather than what's politically correct.

Anyone interested in forming a competitive wiffleball league? If you don't think this looks like one of the more funner things you could be doing with your free time this summer you're just crazy.

As Gilgamesh deals for the Kansas Citys today, note that he too suffered a labrum injury similar to the one that befell our beloved 2007 setup man Casey Janssen. I'm not saying young Casey will be ready to rock as our 5th starter next year (saving us from more gingervitis), but Meche only missed his age 22 to season and was not, in fact, put down like a race horse with a broken leg. Measured in dollar terms, he's now the "ace" of his staff, but you already knew that didn't you, Saxy boy?

A three error inning? That's impressive. Impressively crappy.

This is about as much sitting up as I can handle for the time being, so I'm signing off here in the 4th inning.

-- Johnny Was

Fantasy Baseball Week 3

The Toucans Of Whoopass were defeated in a landslide last week. The epic beatdown was issued by The Huck Fleners, and the score for the week was a horrific 8-2-2 in favour of Huck. The Toucans didn't hit, and they didn't pitch, which sounds a hell of a lot like the Jays.

The knockout punch was delievered by Todd Wellemeyer. We have a moves limit (which I hate, by the way), restricting assholes like me from streaming position players and starters every day. Anyways, I picked him up, but then dropped him upon learning Jon Rauch would be closing. We lost Rafael Soriano to injury, so I panicked and grabbed Rauch, while dropping Todd. Huck, in his infinite wisdom, picked him up. As fate would have it, Matt Cain would face off against Wellemeyer. And then this happened...

Troy Glaus is stinking up the joint, so I grabbed Votto who's on fire to be the utility guy. He's probably going to start now that he's shown Dusty that he refuses to clog the bases (1 BB, 50 AB). So I figure if he's got a spot in the lineup, and he's convinced Baker he won't clog the bases, he'll probably get a spot in the middle of the lineup. Atta boy Votto - fool him into thinking you're not going to clog the bases to get your job back, and then get back to your patient ways.

For Week 4, the Toucans face off against ShaveThoseSideburns. The Toucans fell to 8th after that bitchslap by Huck, so winning this week will put us back in the top 6.

Last night's Jays game...

I don't hate Gibbons - I'll joke about firing him every now and then, but he's not as bad as most fans think. But yesterday he had some pretty weird decisions, as noted earlier by Johnny.

Look, I get it - Wells needs an occasional day off. But having just released a guy who was your fulltime DH, would it not have made a ton of sense to just DH Wells? Doing that makes the lineup a hell of a lot deeper, and prevents one of the super-scrubs from hitting in his place. An OF of Stewart - Rios - Stairs is significantly better in every possible way then a Stew-Rios-Inglett OF.

But then in the 6th, as Johnny mentions, he brings Marcum out after throwing damn near 100 pitches. And he goes to Tallet for an inning and a third. Tallet, the guy who's pitched a shitload of innings to this point, and can be relied upon in key situations...you brought in him against RH hitters, when you're down by 4? Isn't that what Frasor was for?

I thought it'd make just a tiny little bit more sense to use Frasor for two, and then bring in Camp or something. Save Tallet for when we can actually win a game.

DH Ideas

Johnny brought up some other names of potentially useful players who could be used to boost the offense now that Thomas is gone. A name I'd like to throw out there is Kevin Mench. Texas signed him to a MLC - assuming he can still hit LHP like he always could, I think it'd be a terrific idea to send them a pen arm or something for Mench. As recently as last year, he posted a 901 OPS against LHP, and for his career he's got a 924 OPS vs LHP. A Stairs/Mench platoon, a Lind/Mench platoon, or even an Overbay/Mench platoon would be a huge upgrade for this team against LHP. And considering he's on a MLC, it's not like we'd have to throw a good pen arm their way.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Finally!

Opening Day for me is like some magical combination of Christmas, New Year's Eve and my birthday all wrapped into one. Yeah, it's pretty great alright. But the massive highs are so quickly accompanied by crushing lows, as anyone who's been given the gift of white tube socks, drunk Baby Duck over Moet, or never been to Chucky Cheese knows full well.

My optimism for this club is as unbridled as the next guy's and I do sincerely believe that this is the best club the Jays have fielded since 1993. But still, I've never really shaken a modest disappointment that we remain an organization that will rely heavily on luck above all if we're to make a move to the next level.

Money is one thing and there's no question we can't compete with New York or Boston. This doesn't explain, however, our inability to compensate with ahead-of-the-curve scouting and player development (that means going above slot on picks, getting more scout butts in the bleachers, re-establishing our claim to certain foreign markets, just generally being like the Braves, etc.), superior in-game strategy (do we even have one beyond the Theodor Herzl "If you will it, it will come"?), or even the old puffed-chest swagger of the glory years.

I guess what I'm saying is that being a Jays fan is kind of like taking a girl who's a 7 out of 10 to the dance: nothing wrong with a seven even if she doesn't turn any heads, but you'll always be left wondering if you couldn't have done better. (The answer is probably not, just take a look at yourself in the mirror. Seriously.)

I do like this team and I will enjoy watching it this year as I always do. But count me amongst those who forsee an 85-win third place finish and are begging to be proven wrong.

First order of business. Blair is doing a live pregame chat today and I encourage you to drop him a line. Last year he rudely tore me a new one for suggesting that JP trade Alex Rios to the Dodgers for Brad Penny, but that didn't disuade me from trying once again to earn the big guy's nodding approval in 2008.

Alex Rios! Oh ya! Nothing to report, sadly. Well, nothing good. Or maybe, it's hard to read. McLeod says "The deal to lock up Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Alex Rios long term is close to getting done" this morning. M'kay, sweet.

But Jeremy Sandler of the post says this:

Rios said he and his agent remained undecided about signing away his ability to hit the free agent market as soon as after next season in exchange for a contract reported to be worth US$65-million over six years, with an option for a seventh year.

Bingo. There's a much bigger pay day awaiting young Senor Rios--perhaps even from these Jays--to be had by playing the waiting game. Also take note that Kinzer is Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez's agent and talks between those two and the Angels are at a similar impasse. The ship may be headed for the rocks, ladies and gentlemen.

ELSEWHERE:

* And sometimes even the alley-dwelling drunk shows he still has a shred of self-respect. The O's made a very smart and costly decision to dump half-goblin OF and HGH user Jay Gibbons, eating almost $12 million in the process. I will refrain from mocking Bal'mer for on full week as my own little tip of the cap to this nifty little roster move..

* ESPN Sunday Night baseball kicked off last night with a quick and dirty 3-2 Nats win over the Braves in the inaugural game at Nationals Stadium. Ryan Zimmerman socked a game winner in the bottom of the ninth and the place went nuts. P.S. I really like Jim Bowden's offseason roster moves (especially bringing in Lastings Milledge) and am silently cheering for the Nats, and NOT because they used to be the Expos.

Enjoy the game, folks!

-- Johnny Was

Great signing, or the greatest signing?

A little late on the blog-draw, but Rios is close to signing a long-term deal with the Jays, as Rosenthal reports. The deal is thought to start in 09, and be a 6 year 65 mil deal with a 15 mil option in 2015.

That in itself is pretty interesting, as I thought JP was only allowed to sign guys through 2010, Wells being the exception. So it's nice to see Rios get an extension beyond 2010.

Still, this is a terrific deal for the Jays. I think part of it is based on the final year of the recently signed Brad Hawpe contract, which has a 10 mil club option when he would be in his first FA year. Rios' deal adds another .8-.9 million more annually, so I'd have to think that extension by Hawpe played a part in the Rios deal. Even if it's not, it's still a terrific deal for the Jays as Rios definetly would have averaged more than 10-11 million per year as a free agent.

With this signing, Travis Snider should switch over from RF to LF in the minors ASAP. Snider is probably the LF of the future, with Lind being the 1B/DH. Hopefully Lind wins the LF job by mid-season in 2008.

Rios' best years are ahead of him, and we got him at a huge discount if and when this deal becomes official. Kudos to management for getting it done.

Twitchy.

Morning Roundup

Colour me baffled by Sportsnet's decision not to air this morning's Bosox-A's season opener from Tokyo in Ontario while it was on the network's West and Pacific channels. If I was willing to get up at 6 a.m. for it there must've been others who'd have preferred the game to a half dozen-odd consecutive repeats of last night's Sportsnet Connected, right?

No, a tape-delayed version of the game is not on later today at a more reasonable hour. The Hockey Team That Shall Not Be Named is playing the Bruins tonight and there are as always hundreds of thousands of morons out there who constantly set themselves up to have their hopes dashed across rocks. Sportsnet does have a nice little 1-4 p.m. block this afternoon that it's filled with the following: FIS SBX World Cup Lake Placid, USA (skiing? figure skating? darts?), Drive-Thru Europe (some sort of car driving event?), and best of all, Best Damn Sports Show 2008. At least I know what the latter is: a clip show that just couldn't wait for a dead spot in the sched.

I was actually planning on being a bit angry about this until I realized that I have as yet to inform mlb.tv that I was not renewing my subscription this year. They sent me an email last week to let me know that they'd taken the liberty of assuming that I would and have billed my credit card appropriately. At the very least, I can go back to watching three games at once while only being moderately distracted from the work I'm supposed to be doing. Haha, fellas, well played; I guess I have to let it slide now.

Incidentally, tomorrow's Bosox-A's finale in Japan is on Sportsnet Ontario at 7 p.m. There you have it, a bone has been thrown to the baseball-starved masses of central Canada.

Things are looking neither grim nor rosy for recently injured third bagger, Scott Rolen. Cathal Kelly reports that he's had surgery to have a screw inserted in the banged up middle finger on this throwing hand and a second visit to the doc to have it removed is scheduled for two week's time. The bad news is that he will not be playing in any capacity until this thing comes out, but the good news is that his return thereafter will be determined by his pain tolerance level. We all know it's high, so expect him to come back raring to go.

So confident am I that this will be a short-term injury that I told my buddy Jay that I'd eat the January 2008 copy of Diplomatic History currently sitting on my desk if Rolen wasn't back playing by April 15.

With Rolen set to miss at least the first six games of the season (3 game sets against the Yankees and Bosox), Marco Scutaro will fill in as the regular 3B in his absence. It seemed to quite a few of us that he'd become redudant with the acquisition of David Eckstein, forcing J-Mac back into a backup infield role. Kelly reports that JP now seems more than a little pleased with himself with the move:

Asked if the loss of the team's biggest off-season acquisition is a major blow to the new campaign, Ricciardi answered quickly.

"No, we've got (utilityman Marco) Scutaro. Our bench is as deep as it's ever been. A major blow would be if we lost someone of that calibre for the year."

I will concede that one. A week's worth of ABs to Scutaro is definitely not the same as a week's worth of ABs to the three-headed suck monster of Howie Clark, Hector Luna, and Russ Adams.

Blair is in mid-season grumpy form today. Why?

* if Rolen could at least DH we could deny ABs to Frank Thomas and help keep him from reaching the 376 plate appearances he needs for his $10 million 2009 option to kick in
* he's skeptical that Rolen's return could come as soon as fortnight from now; the loss of Rolen means a huge hit both offensively and defensively
* he's skeptical that AJ Burnett is capable of change/showing maturity
* Casey Janssen
* BJ Ryan's forearm soreness means he will be held back until mid-April at the earliest
* The Big Hurt has looked awful at the dish this spring and is probably going to fall of a cliff this year
* there are a bunch of no-name retreads vying for the final bullpen spot or two

I certainly don't disagree that there have been a considerable number of unfortunate developments in recent weeks, but I think making the assessment, which Blair seems on the verge of doing, that our "ship has sunk" is highly premature.

Some counterpoints:

* Overbay, Wells and Zaun are all healthy and seem poised to rebound from awful years
* Shaun Marcum is mixing in a sinker, which might well prove to be a weapon that helps him cut back on the long ball, his achilles heel
* Burnett is throwing his curveball again after the fingernail incident
* we still have the solid Jeremy Accardo to close until BJ comes back
* Brandon League is back in 2006 form
* Jesse Litsch is showing growth as a starter
* for good or ill, the LF log jam has now been solved and Adam Lind's place will be adequately held warm for the next few months
* we still do have depth at pretty much every position and guys like Scutaro or Barajas won't embarass you if they're needed for any length of time

As much as I do like Blair's work (and the sense of humour that shines through in the Globe's baseball blog) I think it's fair to point out that he has a tendency to make the most pessimistic of assumptions on most occasions. I know he's not employed to be a cheerleader for the club, but still...

I can't speak for my co-writers, but I'm fully prepared for another third place finish this year. That said, I do accept that things just might break well enough for this group to sneak into the playoffs. It's a longshot, a real longshot. I know.

In a more positive development, the Star is reporting that Alex Rios is "on the verge" of signing a 6-year, $65 million extension. Yes, I will be dancing naked in the streets when that happens.

ELSEWHERE:

* JD "Nancy" Drew is injured already, Josh Beckett goes on the DL and Andy Pettitte is looking extremely unlikely to make his first start. Teehee.

* Is Jason Bay more excited about the 2009 World Baseball Classic that his upcoming season with the Pirates? I'm going say yes.

-- Johnny Was

The Scrappy Analysis

First off, I want to apologize to everyone. Lately I've been doing a lot of "reporting", and that's not really what I'm here to do. Johnny does a great job of it, but it's not really my forte. My strength here is in analyzing stuff. Crunch the numbers, go off on random tangents, and see where it leads me. It's when I do that, that I'm on top of my game.


So with that in mind, I thought I'd take a deeper look at the scrappiest, most dirtbaggiest player we have. Buckle your seat belts boys and girls, we're gonna find out all of David Eckstein's deepest, darkest secrets!

What we do know about Eckstein to date is that he's a slightly below average SS, both at fielding and offensively. Eckstein is a middle of the road SS in terms of ZR, so he'll be an upgrade over Clayton but an obvious downgrade over J-Mac. Offensively, he's got a career 89 OPS+ and last year he was at 93 with a batting line of 309/356/382.

This isn't really news to anybody. Eckstein's always been overrated by media and fans alike. Calling him a good hitter is being generous at this point, because he's below league average. He is a perfect fit for the Jays though, who need a hitter who can simply get on base against RHP. It's no secret the Blue Birds struggled against RHP last year. Last year we were 27th in the majors with a 715 OPS against RHP - the biggest problems were an inability to hit RHP (248 BA) and get on base as a result (315 OBP). Eckstein's strengths are BA and OBP, specifically against RHP. It's really a match made in heaven.

What is interesting, however, is that during the offseason many writers often suggested the Jays did not make a significant offensive upgrade. That couldn't be further from the truth, and here's why. Last season, Jays SS, be it Ray Olmedo, J-Mac, Clayton, or anybody else who logged time at SS combined to...hit...to the tune of a 598 OPS. That OPS was dead last in the majors, just behind Boston. For all we made fun of Lugo and the Red Sox SS's, they were .035 points better than us, with a 633 OPS at SS.

Now, if we use last season's base of how David Eckstein will perform, he'll have a 738 OPS. Even if he only plays 120-130 games, that's an incredible upgrade. In fact, compared to last year's SS, it'll be an upgrade of .140 points of OPS.

That sounds like a lot, doesn't it? Well, think of it this way...

Remember how much Wells sucked last year? Remember how Awesome Rios was last year? Last year Wells had a 706 OPS, and Rios had an 852 OPS. You know what the difference between these two guys were in terms of OPS last year? .146 is the difference.

I'll give you guys a sec for that to sink in....

Imagine if we were able to clone Rios last year, and replace Vernon Wells with Alex Rios. We essentially did that at SS, where we replaced the Vernon Wells of SS (Mac) with Alex Rios (Eckstein). It's really night and day.

A ton of Jays fans/bloggers, including some of us here wanted to get Jason Bay. Assuming we somehow got him, the upgrade between our combined LF in 07 (741 OPS...that's for anyone who played in LF, not just Stairs/Johnson) and Jason Bay's career #'s (890 OPS) would have been a .150 OPS difference.

In other words, adding David Eckstein to SS is nearly identical to adding Jason Bay pre-07 to play LF for us. No, Eckstein isn't going to suddenly start hitting HR or anything. But our SS position was so bad, that having a league average guy like Eckstein makes it seem like a tremendous upgrade. We would have given up tons of prospects, and millions of dollars for a LF of his quality (assuming we had the money of course). And yet for 4.5 million, we essentially got the same kind of upgrade in our lineup. They won't provide the same production, but the value you're getting, from upgrading a player is proportionately at the same.

When you look at the Eckstein signing this way, it is without a doubt the single best offseason move JP has done. Often times during the offseason, we were told that NY, Boston & the Jays didn't really make any big improvements, and for the most parts were just standing pat. What I'm hoping is that people start realizing that we didn't stand pat, and that out of the three teams listed, you can make the argument the Jays made the most improvements to their starting 9 during the offseason.

Alright, so now that I've proved that Eckstein is a huge addition, how can we maximize his value?

We know Eckstein's coming off an injured season, and considering how valuable he is to the club, we need to keep him rested. Also, we know that his defense is less than spectacular. So what needs to happen to keep him rested and healthy throughout the year?

The obvious answer to this is to have McDonald come in more often and play defense when we're winning. The other thing that Gibbons can do, is make a straight platoon between Eck & Mac.

I'm probably getting a lot of WTF stares at the screen, so I better act fast....here are their 3 year splits vs LHP

McDonald - 697 OPS
Eck -706 OPS

There really isn't any noticeable difference between McDonald or Eckstein, when they're facing a Southpaw. Mac shows he can take the occasional walk against LHP (283/333). Eck would probably be better if he hit for higher average against LHP, as his walk rates and I'd bet ISO would be higher than Mac. That being said, for a difference of .009 OPS, there is really no reason to stop Eck/Mac from going into a straight platoon to start the season. We lose a negligible amount of offense against lefties, which the Jays already kill to date. But the defensive upgrade from Eck to McDonald is sizeable enough that you do gain value starting McDonald against LHP.

I really hope I actually covered some new stuff, and didn't rehash the same old "scrappy" and "team player" ideas that have been circulating the media. Beyond that, I'm just hoping that people can appreciate how bad the SS position was, and that Eckstein is potentially a bigger upgrade than a healthy Rolen in this lineup (proportionately to their positions previously held by Jays, anyways).

Twitchy.